Managed funds

[Basil]

Smart Shares TWF total world fund 5 year performance is 11.48%. That's a PIE fund and that return is therefore after fees and tax. Different funds will have different returns but if we take their fund as a proxy then you're right, that's a decent return for a very broadly diversified fund with no work for investors.

Straight of Hormuz closed again. Took 5 years to get the nuclear deal with Iran last time.

Overseas markets trading on multiples that suggest the war is already over. That makes no common sense to me.

On a risk reward basis I'm not convinced that this is a good time to be putting cash to work overseas.

[Dolcile]

For me this period just reinforces that it's time in the market not timing the market.  Some would also say being long on a basket the greatest companies in human history is not such a bad thing. 

[winner (n)]

Share prices follow eps eh Basil

s&P at record levels ...overvalued?

I found this interesting

You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

For me this period just reinforces that it's time in the market not timing the market.  Some would also say being long on a basket the greatest companies in human history is not such a bad thing. 

That's the standard line that fund managers trot out.  Fact is, if you get the timing badly wrong it can take 15 years just to recover, (that's not getting a return in 15 years, just getting back to where the index was), i.e. probably 40%-50% loss in real terms after adjusting for inflation. https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/startup-valuations-bubble-downturn-stocks/

An oil supply shock if its extremely protracted, worst case could send the world economy into a global depression.  US and European equities are priced as though the geopolitical risk is completely gone.  That makes no sense to me.

[Shareguy]

I'm sceptical like Basil that this could go on for some time and agree the market seems to disagree given the pricing of equities.

There is risk with any investment and as long as you have a long term approach, history says that you will do ok in most cases. Now going forward no one knows what's going to happen.

With Covid both Discovery and Pie funds took an hammering but gosh when it turned the upside was huge. This time might be different and it might continue to get worse only time will tell.

Insert from Craig's.

When things are going well, you wonder if you've missed the boat.
When markets face challenges, it feels safer to wait for the outlook to improve.
One option is to simply close your eyes, grit your teeth and invest your money right now,
all at once.
While it sounds outlandish, most evidence proves this is a wise move.
A 2023 study by Vanguard (based on returns from 1976 to 2022) showed that lump sum
investing led to better returns 68 per cent of the time.
That's because sharemarkets are usually rising.
I looked at returns over the past 30 years for shares in New Zealand, Australia and the
United States.

None of us want to invest at the top of the market or when things are about to head south.
The price you pay has a significant influence on your future returns, so your entry point is crucial.
A few of the outcomes in Vanguard's other 32 per cent of occasions won't be pretty.
If you're unlucky enough to invest your lump sum immediately before a market downturn
or recession, it might take years to recover.
That suggests we should sit back and wait for a big fall, then take advantage of cheaper
prices.
A great idea in theory, but this requires a fairly accurate crystal ball.
Markets have a habit of proving us wrong.
A rosy outlook can turn on a dime, while the long-heralded slumps we patiently await sometimes never arrive.

PS My crystal ball is getting repaired.

[Basil]

My crystal ball is beyound repair. Anyone's guess where international events go from here but if we think about it logically, we've got two deranged power obsessed narcissists in power with Netanyahu and Chump, we've got a new supreme leader in charge of a country of religious extremists with the Houits and Hellbolla thrown into the mix as well not forgetting the other middle east countries heavily impacted as well.

How on earth does anyone get a widespread lasting peace in the middle east ?  It would take a miracle and yet the US market is trading at record levels ?