TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[HAWKDOG]

Pressure on Turners Automotive's Margins to Continue — Market Talk
Oct 28, 2026, 11:12 GMT+13Less than 1 min read

TRA
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Pressure on Turners Automotive's margins could continue for a while yet, says Forsyth Barr. "With Turners Automotive's Auto Retail segment primarily exposed to domestic used-vehicle turnover, current market dynamics remain challenging," analyst James Lindsay says. Still, Turners should be able to lift 1H earnings as Finance growth offsets a softer Auto Retail result. Forsyth Barr forecasts 1H pretax profit of NZ$31.3 million, up 3% on year. "While we remain constructive on Finance and Auto Retail site expansion from FY28, the near-term outlook remains subdued," says Forsyth Barr, cutting its price target on Turners by 1.9%, to NZ$7.60/share. It retains an "underperform" call on Turners, which is up 0.4%, at NZ$7.35 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

[HAWKDOG]

The bump up to 7.50 looks like it was testing the 50dma and failed to break though resistance.
I will keep watching from the sidelines till breaks resistance - new stores due to come online in a couple years which should give it a boost so no hurry.

[Basil]

Several new sites scheduled to open early in 2027.

Exceptionally well run company trading on attractive metrics. Well proven growth track recod with EPS CAGR of 12%.

[lorraina]

 Auto Retail trading conditions had become materially harder in 1H27, as elevated fuel prices and weaker consumer confidence weighed on demand for diesel and larger petrol vehicles.
Today Turners have approx 3,000 cars for sale of which 440 only 15% are hybrid.
Approx 50% of Turners cars are ex fleet,govt etc.ie Turners only own approx 50% of the cars they sell.
I expect Turners are reacting to changing consumer demand,however until such time as the exlease,ex Govt vehicles start to be hybrid or electric they will struggle a bit.
I would guess Turner's are importing a good few hybrids.
In a year or two Turners well sited yards will benefit from a better product mix.
It is interesting to note today 48.94% of the cars 2CC have for sale are hybrid.
We therefore must ask ourselves what Turners sales would be like if 50% of their cars for sale were hybrid.
I would guess a great deal higher than currently.
Turners like any business must stock what customers want.

 

[HAWKDOG]

Several new sites scheduled to open early in 2027.

Exceptionally well run company trading on attractive metrics. Well proven growth track recod with EPS CAGR of 12%.

An exceptionally well run company can face headwinds in a tough economic climate.

I prefer to put the cash in another vehicle, say a sharesies PIE saving account which is up to a 3% interest rate and wait for a better entry - no hurry as the next divi is a ways off.  That's just my plan, but i am stockpiling cash for a correction in the overall market and mostly doing short term trades.

Claude's overview of the chart using Tradingview data:

The price is now $7.10, about 23% below the May high. It's down about 15% this year and 13% over three months.

Moving averages

200-day average: $8.18. The price is about 13% below it, and the average itself has started to turn down. By your 200-day rule, the uptrend is broken.

50-day average: $7.47. The price is below this too, and the 50-day has crossed below the 200-day. A 50-day crossing below the 200-day (sometimes called a "death cross") usually marks a longer-term downtrend.
Short-term averages (10- and 20-day): about $7.25. The price is just below these. Every bounce since August has been sold off below the previous high.

Momentum and volume

RSI is 37. That's weak, but not oversold (below 30), so there's room to fall further before it looks stretched.

TradingView's technicals summary rates it "Sell". The moving averages alone rate "Strong Sell".
The selling has been steady, not panicky. Weekly volume has mostly been 100–250k shares, against a 2-year average of about 240k. There's been no capitulation, the high-volume flush that often marks a bottom. Sellers are taking it lower without much fight from buyers.

Key levels

Support around $6.70–$6.90. The stock spent much of mid-2025 sideways in this zone before its last leg up, and that's where it is now. A clear weekly close below about $6.85 would open the way to the next support around $6.00–$6.30.

Resistance first at $7.45–$7.60, where the 50-day average sits along with the September–October highs.
The bigger ceiling is $8.00–$8.20, where it broke down and where the 200-day average sits.

O'Neil reading

A correction of about 25% is normal for a stock that roughly doubled, so on its own it doesn't mean the trend is over.
But there's no base yet. The price hasn't stopped falling, and a cup would need a low, a rounded bottom and a recovery up the right side, which would take months.
The earliest constructive sign would be a hold of $6.70–$6.90, then tighter, lower-volume weeks, then a recovery above the 50-day average.

Where the business fits

On the earnings side, FY26 was a record and the P/E is now about 16.8. Management has flagged choppy trading at the start of FY27. So the business looks fine, and the chart is pricing in a slowdown.

I'm not a financial adviser, so treat this as a read of the chart rather than a call. Want me to set a TradingView price alert at $6.85 to warn you if support breaks, and another at $7.50 for a move back above the 50-day?

[Mos]

Short term, who knows. Medium term, if you believe Management's $100 m NPBT goal equating to $72 m after tax applying a 14 P/E ratio would be a market cap of $1b or more than $10 per share. I am inclined to back Turners to achieve their medium term goal driven by branch roll out, continuing to grow share in auto retail and growth in the finance and insurance businesses. So happy to ride out fluctuations in business conditions and sentiment.

[Basil]

Well said Mos. Its also worth highlighting they've achieved every other long term profit goal a year or two early.

[HAWKDOG]

Short term, who knows. Medium term, if you believe Management's $100 m NPBT goal equating to $72 m after tax applying a 14 P/E ratio would be a market cap of $1b or more than $10 per share. I am inclined to back Turners to achieve their medium term goal driven by branch roll out, continuing to grow share in auto retail and growth in the finance and insurance businesses. So happy to ride out fluctuations in business conditions and sentiment.

Holding and riding out the fluctuations is one thing, but starting or adding to a position in clear downtrend is another. 

[Basil]

FYI Hawkdog, I have a certain number of shares. I rebalanced my portfolio when they got into the late $8 range and am rebalancing again in the low $7's. Prudent long term portfolio management in regard to what is a superbly managed company.

[HAWKDOG]

Basil, no argument from me that TRA is a superbly run company. and everyone manages their portfolio differently.  Just curious why you would add several days after the stock going ex div when the chart clearly shows a down trend.  Thats all i'm doing - waiting for a confirmation sellers are done, there's no benefit to me buying before that as the divi is months away.

[Basil]

You're quite right Hawkdog that its in a downtrend and also right that I don't usually buy shares in those circumstances.  Its raised eyebrows on the other channel too because this is not my usual M.O.  This is a case of gradually averaging back into a full sized position.  This weeks buy was for a block of X shares.  I have 9 more same sized tranches to buy to get back to a fulsome position.    Hope that unpacks it a bit better for you.

For what its worth, which is probably not much as a thorough understanding of TA has never been one of my strongest abilities, my sense after observing the trading pattern for several months is there may be limited appetite from sellers to sell this awesome well managed company under $7 and the speed of the decline appears to have slowed.  If I'm wrong, (and everyone is from time to time including me), then I'm more than happy to keep gradually accumulating more shares at lower prices.  I'm focused on the long term and believe management will get to their FY31 $100m profit target a year or two early.