TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[Waltzing]

With recession persisting it appear this could dip again to the low 4 as an accumulate if you missed SKL or worse sold out of it .....

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129214/reserve-bank%E2%80%99s-early-rate-cut-ends-three-years-tightening-signalling-major-policy

""RBNZ has probably made the right call in starting to cut the OCR, but in doing so, it implies that its view of the economy and its forecasts in May were hopelessly wrong," Olsen said."


pass the T.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgEOTzSrv9s

what a classic .... up...  someone get some new data please.....

[BlackPeter]

With recession persisting it appear this could dip again to the low 4 as an accumulate if you missed SKL or worse sold out of it .....

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129214/reserve-bank%E2%80%99s-early-rate-cut-ends-three-years-tightening-signalling-major-policy

""RBNZ has probably made the right call in starting to cut the OCR, but in doing so, it implies that its view of the economy and its forecasts in May were hopelessly wrong," Olsen said."


pass the T.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgEOTzSrv9s

what a classic .... up...  someone get some new data please.....

Lets face it - Olsen just sounds sad - and I don't mean that in any positive way.

His whinging about RNZ changing their views adds not even entertainment value. What authority would he have other than being not better than RNZ nor anybody else in predicting the future? What RNZ did was changing their views based on the environment changing. Not rocket science, but sensible.

I guess if he hasn't yet checked that NOBODY is able to predict the future, then I am wondering why anybody would put him into any job with responsibilities? But sure - economists don't have responsibilities, but this one is not even entertaining.

[Waltzing]

off topic..

A data science german real time data software technical expert advised two years ago that the NZ economy has to many time lag data sinks in it...

now the Vikings had simula in the 1960'sss, that technology never made it here... old pascal on a DG did...

its a country that failed to modernise it data science fast enough....  ..

you cant make decisions when you dont have the data...

[Basil]

that NOBODY is able to predict the future

Off topic but I have been meaning to ask you this for a long time.
You keep reiterating that nobody can ever predict the future so why do you invest in individual stocks rather than a bunch of low cost index tracking funds?  By investing in company A compared to company B are you not trying to predict the future that company A will outperform?

For what its worth I think the RBNZ has made a real hash of things.  They need to get out from their ivory tower and get down into the coalface and talk to literally hundreds of SME's on a regular basis to get a current feel of the economy not some backward facing view based on historical data.  Yes they have some egg on their face for cutting now rather than their forecast of August 2025, made as recently as May 2024, but a man with some egg on his face is more attractive than a man running the economy into a great depression so its good he's done a flip-flop.

On topic.  Its well-known TRA will benefit from the reduction in the OCR over time as fixed rate motor vehicle loans written at high rates are funded by floating rate finance at reducing rates and their NIM should expand nicely over the next few years.  Not sure why TRA hasn't joined the "relief rally" yet but maybe an opportunity for those not already well positioned?

Additionally, as an income stock, I note Forsyth Barr predicting dps of 30 cps next financial year (FY26).  That's 41.67 cps gross and a forecast gross yield of 9.7% next year @ $4.30.  That's very attractive given their proven ability to keep growing dividends over the long run.
Disc: Already very well positioned. 

[Waltzing]

off topic..

yes they spent there time printing off posters of trees...

even wanted more people without math skills...  now the PM has said need more maths and less arts...


well Bob Jones ones once said he hired history students to program his software... go figure...

and really thats the point.... history can show us the future...
 
well charts are a form of art and maybe drawing charts will be a good thing....

give kindergartens new types of coloring in templates

colorful pie charts... with lots of pastels...

have a competition and the winner gets to meet the PM and hand over the drawings!!!

mean the statistical paintings... mean CHARTS!!! 

if you though they knew what they were doing and the data models were good you did not buy before the fact....

NAH you bought before the fact as probability and information from the german data scientist told us dont trust the RBNZ models...

the banks knew what the RBNZ did not...

yup you bought in the days before ....

[BlackPeter]

Off topic but I have been meaning to ask you this for a long time.
You keep reiterating that nobody can ever predict the future so why do you invest in individual stocks rather than a bunch of low cost index tracking funds?  By investing in company A compared to company B are you not trying to predict the future that company A will outperform?

Good question - I think the issue here is around shades of likelihood.

What happens in the future is driven by a complex system with plenty of different inputs. Some of these inputs are at least for the near future with reasonable likelihood predictable (like the short term weather forecast), others are not (like predicting the weather of the next growing season, pandemics, wars, earthquakes, Trump winning (or hopefully losing) the next election or other punishments of the gods, ...). The outcome of merging all these inputs is always unpredictable - the best one can do is assign some likelihood to achieving a certain outcome - and after the event, you  know whether you have been right or wrong, but you never will know, whether you  got the likelihood right.

Imagine its 1640 and you are running the Dutch West-India Company. You know the weather is unpredictable (but you don't know when the next cyclone is due), you know there are plenty of pirates around (but you don't know where they exactly are, and whether they will pick on your ships), you know that Britain and Spain is likely to attack your ships from time to time (as they did) and you don't even know the geography of all the places you still want to explore. You only know that you want to make as much money as any possible by exploiting, enslaving and raping the colonies which the Netherlands happened to occupy.

Clearly - you don't know the future (as everybody else), but you are able to improve your odds to be successful (however you measure success) by picking experienced captains and by giving them well maintained ships, good weapons, enough ammunition and good crews.

You still have no clue whether you will be successful (though the odds might be on your side) and you don't know the future. You don't know whether the next war will destroy your flotilla, and you don't know what your ships will find.

Same if you buy shares in a company. You will try to pick the best teams and ships, improving your odds to be successful, but at the end - even the best ship can be sunk by a dumb cannonball (or freak wave).

You don't know the future and neither does anybody else.

That is exactly what I mean with "Nobody can predict the future".

Makes sense?

But yes - everybody can prepare for an unknown future, and the better you prepare, the better are your odds that you will be successful.

That's what any good investor will do as well - try to pick companies which are best prepared for an uncertain future, without paying too much.

Well, I didn't say its easy, did I?

.

For what its worth I think the RBNZ has made a real hash of things.  They need to get out from their ivory tower and get down into the coalface and talk to literally hundreds of SME's on a regular basis to get a current feel of the economy not some backward facing view based on historical data.  Yes they have some egg on their face for cutting now rather than their forecast of August 2025, made as recently as May 2024, but a man with some egg on his face is more attractive than a man running the economy into a great depression so its good he's done a flip-flop.

I think its just easy and fashionable to use Orr as whipping boy. So easy to beat somebody up who has been "convicted" in the court of social media (aka lynch justice). Not really contrarian, but its always easier to run  with the herd.

I agree that his May 24 statement sounded different than his August 24 statements, but there might be valid reasons for that (like the desire to "jaw-bone" inflation still back in May). And hey, if the circumstances change, I change my opinion. So did he. What are you doing? :p;

[Ferg]

You don't know the future and neither does anybody else.

That is exactly what I mean with "Nobody can predict the future".

Makes sense?

OFF TOPIC

Actually no because not knowing the future and predicting the future are two different things.  I have an issue with the blanket statement "Nobody can predict the future".

I will show why you are wrong by stating:
"I predict the OCR in New Zealand will be lower in 12 months time than it is today."  I made a prediction, so obviously people can make predictions.

Now whether or not that prediction is correct remains to be seen because I do not know the future.

I recommend you qualify such statements in future because as I have said previously, anyone with cognitive ability and the ability to communicate can predict the future.  But can they accurately predict the future?

[Basil]

Good post BP and Ferg. My view is the past is the best guide to the future and the most recent past is the most reliable indicator.
For example, sticking with Ferg's analogy, we know that when central banks go into easing cycles the most likely outcome is that one rate cut is followed by another.

Another good example, Turners has a well proven track record of growing dividends so I think I am on solid ground saying that over the medium term we can expect further significant dividend growth in the years ahead.  Something retired investors looking for income that grows in line with, or above the inflation rate might want to think about.  People rolling over 1 year term deposits now at 5.75% might only get 4.5% or even less when it rolls over next year and even lower the year after that on the balance of probabilities.  That seems like a mugs game by comparison to growing income with Turners.
Of course there could be some major black swan event, that I agree, we cannot possibly predict.

My view is that intelligent investing is weighing everything up after a thorough review of all pertinent facts and making decisions "on the balance of probabilities".  You're never going to get every investment decision right but as long as you get a lot more right than wrong, have a reasonably well diversified portfolio and have a strategy for limiting your losses when you are wrong, you should do okay. 

[Waltzing]

Game theory .... and with AI game theory will grow in predictability...

money already moving into the market in 1 day ....

arg now 113 and some junk retail moving

[Waltzing]

TRA this stock has shown a reduced number of shares for sale over the last few days since the OCR dizzying pivot...

is over 5 by april now looking possible?

if you did not buy pre OCR rerate then its looking like no one want to sell right here much.

[winner (n)]

Our Arron had to wait a while but he got his 20,000 shares at $2 the other day

Suppose incentivising management with cheap options is a good idea

[Waltzing]

well if those cheap electric china cars make it here and get dumped on TRA yards dont buy .....

one of the new china models bumped over some lose pavement and exploded in fire in china recently....

not a good look... maybe why they are cheap....

too cheap autos....

[BlackPeter]

well if those cheap electric china cars make it here and get dumped on TRA yards dont buy .....

one of the new china models bumped over some lose pavement and exploded in fire in china recently....

not a good look... maybe why they are cheap....

too cheap autos....

Google "Tesla catching fire" and look at the first 100 links (you are free to watch more, if you like).

You will see that electric cars catching fire has nothing to do with the price of the car. The only difference is: Teslas make more expensive fires, and yes - more of them!

Here are just some appetizers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gai1buBArmM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qxgYvMq37Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmmqS7GC5kw

[Basil]

Go Tina !!, starring in the latest Celebrity Treasure Island which kicks off on TV2 on Sept 9.
Other celebrities are there too but who cares about them lol...although it will be nice to see Duncan Garner back on T.V.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/duncan-garner-suzanne-paul-and-carmel-sepuloni-celebrity-treasure-island-new-zealand-cast-revealed/VHTB7NE45NAKTNQEUOSUCTRNUE/

[Left Field]

This will get holders excited

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437719

Turners makes a strategic growth investment in vehicle repair platform My Auto Shop
 
Turners Automotive Group has acquired 50% of My Auto Shop, seeing strategic value in both accelerating the growth of the vehicle repair and maintenance business, and adding value for Turners' customers by expanding the Group's range of services into after-sales vehicle repairs and servicing.