TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[LoungeLizard]

The sell-off continues. Back to $4 today by the looks of things.

[SuperMario]

The sell-off continues. Back to $4 today by the looks of things.

Is there a reason for the sell off? Doesn't seem to be any mentioned in this thread.

[LoungeLizard]

TRA is a very well run company, fundamentally sound with a good yield. I think it's just where we are at the moment in the share market and economy generally. Business confidence is down, the Government is in austerity mode and inflation and interest rates still stubbornly high. Probably just a low point in the cycle for business's like TRA so I sold down when the downtrend started to kick in, to take profits and reduce risk.
If it goes under $4 and the next report's NP still looks good, I may buy in again.   

[Waltzing]

LL has it right ...

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/127641/brian-easton-wonders-whether-economy-another-long-stagnation-and-if-so-why

good oppo to add more or re enter if it goes under 4 ....

hoping it stays here or under for a while ... not often you get a chance like the next 12 months of a hammering on the market...

[LoungeLizard]

LL has it right ...

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/127641/brian-easton-wonders-whether-economy-another-long-stagnation-and-if-so-why

good oppo to add more or re enter if it goes under 4 ....

hoping it stays here or under for a while ... not often you get a chance like the next 12 months of a hammering on the market...

Thanks for the link.

Brian Easton is a class act and I agree with his analysis. NZ has been papering over the cracks for a long, long time. GDP is such a blunt, if not downright misleading, instrument to gauge where the economy really is. GDP per capita, as Easton uses, is a good start as it strips away the simplistic Government method of increasing immigration to inflate GDP. GDP per capita really shows that even in the good times our growth was anaemic, and since 2019 we haven't grown at all in real terms and are now in negative growth territory. If we used Net Domestic Product per capita things look even worse. Then if we take away the housing market (our biggest industry), you begin to see the underlying lack of productivity in NZ, which lies at the heart of why our real economy is stagnating.

Anyhoo, TRA will ride this cycle out as it has always done - maintaining profitability and dividends. We might have to wait a bit longer before they hit the $50m NP projection but as long as those quarterly dividends keep rolling in I'm happy to hold, and perhaps accumulate.

[KW]

Worldwide phenomenon.  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-car-bear-market-worsens-bad-loans-pile-amid-inflation-storm-rocking-drivers

[Basil]

4 years of record profits in a row, through thick and thin, covid and recession, cost of living crisis or not.  11% per annum CAGR in dividends since FY15.  Given the challenges to the economy in recent years, that's absolutely incredible !  Jarden's talking about ~ 40 cents in annual fully imputed dividends by FY30. Many more years of awesome dividend growth to look forward too.  As the add with Tina says "boom, money in the bank".

One of my recent posts on Turners, above..  Honestly, you'd struggle to find a batter managed company on the NZX.
Lets also remember Turners upgraded profit guidance less than 2 months ago.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/425976/412324.pdf

[lorraina]

Recently ex director Martin Berry sold most,or all of his holding.
Also the recent death of a ChCh investor has seen his holding in 2CC sold.He also had a large TRA holding,which I expect has also been sold.

[LoungeLizard]

One of my recent posts on Turners, above..  Honestly, you'd struggle to find a batter managed company on the NZX.
Lets also remember Turners upgraded profit guidance less than 2 months ago.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/425976/412324.pdf

Yes, and all good reasons to still hold TRA in one's portfolio and look for buying opportunities. The fly in the ointment is just the slowdown in the economy, consumers feeling the pinch etc which is reflected in the current sentiment surrounding the stock. That will change, particularly if TRA can hold current profitability and dividends. If they can increase one or both I would be seriously impressed!

[Basil]

Yes, and all good reasons to still hold TRA in one's portfolio and look for buying opportunities. The fly in the ointment is just the slowdown in the economy, consumers feeling the pinch etc which is reflected in the current sentiment surrounding the stock. That will change, particularly if TRA can hold current profitability and dividends. If they can increase one or both I would be seriously impressed!

Agreed. As far as I know they are still on track for their fourth year of record profit in a row and record dividend payout of 25 cps fully imputed, (34.72 cps per annum gross), 8.7% yield at $4.  For me, it's not just about the yield it's about the prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead.  Probably worth remembering they have pivoted to lower value stock and in the last Q & A session mentioned 90% of their stock is under $15,000.  Kiwi's love their cars and the freedom they confer.  I doubt that love affair will end any year soon...

[SuperMario]

I do notice it is selling in big volume today. 277.7k today, average is 60k.

[SuperMario]

Do we know roughly which day they'll be reporting at the end of the month?

[SCOTTY]

Do we know roughly which day they'll be reporting at the end of the month?

Last year 23rd May

[lorraina]

Forbar say Tuesday 21st May.

[Waltzing]

going to be interesting to see where it is today end and week close..