TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[lorraina]

W69.
Take a trip to Timaru and marvel at Turners site.
All the time improving their business and retail positioning,resulting in real market share increases.
 

[Basil]

Loved Winners comment on the other channel that it's a shame in the 2024 stock picking competition you can't pick TRA five times lol.  Couldn't have said it better myself.👍

[winner (n)]

Loved Winners comment on the other channel that it's a shame in the 2024 stock picking competition you can't pick TRA five times lol.  Couldn't have said it better myself.👍

Concentrated portfolio with just TRA in it to maximise returns rather than probably getting lower return from a diversified 5 stock 'portfolio' ......likely to get get one of two 'disappointments' to lower return eh

[Basil]

Dead right...The way the NZX and N.Z. economy is mate, I think the risk is more likely two or three other disappointments, maybe even four !

[LoungeLizard]

Conventional wisdom states that a diversified portfolio is fundamental to good investing but with the NZX50 only increasing about 2.5% and most "diversified" index funds struggling to make a positive return at all, it could be wiser to just pick a few stocks - like TRA - and diversify across asset classes, bonds and terms deposits primarily. In a bear market, the diversification rule doesn't seem to hold up, imo.

[lorraina]

Be interesting seeing where these stocks finish at end of 2024.
Stock........Current share price.
2CC...................82 cents.
GNE...................$2.505
HGH..................$1.48
HLG...................$5.20.
KFL...................$1.22
KPG...................87.5 cents
OCA..................76 cents
SPK....................$5.18
TRA...................$4.59.
And on Unlisted.
PAZ....................30 cents.
SFF....................$1.25

[winner (n)]

Be interesting seeing where these stocks finish at end of 2024.
Stock........Current share price.
2CC...................82 cents.   +160%
GNE...................$2.505.     +0%
HGH..................$1.48.       -17%
HLG...................$5.20.      -4%
KFL...................$1.22.      -12%
KPG...................87.5 cents. -4%
OCA...................86 cents    -0%
SPK....................$5.18.     -4%
TRA...................$4.59.      +40%
And on Unlisted.
PAZ....................30 cents.
SFF....................$1.25

Last 52 week change noted to right of Lorraine's numbers

If it wasn't for second hand car dealers pretty bad year

Hooe 2024 is far better

[Basil]

Recently read TRA up 49% inclusive of dividends this year. 
How do I fit "I Love Tina" onto a personalized plate ?   

[Buzz]

Recently read TRA up 49% inclusive of dividends this year. 
How do I fit "I Love Tina" onto a personalized plate ?   

ILVTNA
And ... drum roll ... it's available here https://www.kiwiplates.nz/create/

[lorraina]

Wishful thinking on the OCA price Percy......
Thanks have corrected.

[lorraina]

Last 52 week change noted to right of Lorraine's numbers

If it wasn't for second hand car dealers pretty bad year

Hooe 2024 is far better

Yes and would have not been flash in Aussie except for  ACF,ATP and CNW that saved the day...lol.

[BlackPeter]

Dead right...The way the NZX and N.Z. economy is mate, I think the risk is more likely two or three other disappointments, maybe even four !

Concentrated portfolio with just TRA in it to maximise returns rather than probably getting lower return from a diversified 5 stock 'portfolio' ......likely to get get one of two 'disappointments' to lower return eh

With all due respect ... I think many of us discovered the benefits of diversification only when it was too late. Don't we all remember the guy who put all his eggs into the winning A2 basket? How did this go for him, despite claiming to watch the basket with eagles eyes?

Sure, different scenario and surely - could never happen to TRA, can it? However - some things stay:

... NOBODY can predict the future
... GROUP THINK is ALWAYS dangerous and ...
... DIVERSIFICATION has been proven sensible across the millenia.
    Even the good book (whatever one might think about it) recommends it.
... there are always ohter good companies around as well, and some might even be better ;

Just to be clear ... I hold TRA and think it is a great company.

However - I would not know what turn the road into the future might take (even for a company with a good leadership team), and neither can anybody else.

Anyway - Happy 2024 everybody!

[LoungeLizard]

With all due respect ... I think many of us discovered the benefits of diversification only when it was too late. Don't we all remember the guy who put all his eggs into the winning A2 basket? How did this go for him, despite claiming to watch the basket with eagles eyes?

Sure, different scenario and surely - could never happen to TRA, can it? However - some things stay:

... NOBODY can predict the future
... GROUP THINK is ALWAYS dangerous and ...
... DIVERSIFICATION has been proven sensible across the millenia.
    Even the good book (whatever one might think about it) recommends it.
... there are always ohter good companies around as well, and some might even be better ;

Just to be clear ... I hold TRA and think it is a great company.

However - I would not know what turn the road into the future might take (even for a company with a good leadership team), and neither can anybody else.

Anyway - Happy 2024 everybody!

Yep, sensible thinking. Eggs in one basket is NEVER a good idea. In a bear share market though "spreading" the risk across one asset class ie the share market, does nothing more than expose one to the general downtrend. In volatile times 'spreading the risk" means investing across asset classes and at the moment 60% of my funds are tied up in term deposits and 20% in bonds. That's why I'm comfortable in investing in only about a handful stocks, including TRA, GNE, STU, IFT and - ahem - PEB. TRA aside, in this market I figure macro trends trump company data and I'm picking the energy, infrastructure, IT and technology sectors to outperform the general index in the year ahead.
Good luck to all in 2024. 

[winner (n)]

Further to discussion on HGH thread I've done a sum of the parts valuation of Turners

Assumed Auto Retail F24 NPAT of $20m with Finance, indsurancenetc NP.AT of $15m. Allocated exorbitant HQ costs across both parts,

Gave Auto retail with its brilliant market a PE of 16 and finance stuff 11

That comes to $465m or $5.28 per share

So that's my valuation on those assumptions.... $5.28

[BlackPeter]

Further to discussion on HGH thread I've done a sum of the parts valuation of Turners

Assumed Auto Retail F24 NPAT of $20m with Finance, indsurancenetc NP.AT of $15m. Allocated exorbitant HQ costs across both parts,

Gave Auto retail with its brilliant market a PE of 16 and finance stuff 11

That comes to $465m or $5.28 per share

So that's my valuation on those assumptions.... $5.28

I assume you did build in some ongoing growth, did you? Without growth would the PE of 16 look a bit dear.

But then, I see they had over the last 10 years an annual earnings CAGR of 12.9 (no idea though, how much from selling used bangers and how much from financing them) - and analysts give them for the next 3 years an ongoing earnings CAGR of 6.7 (which is good, but slower than the last 10 years);

Given that your target SP looks pretty conservative.

For what its worth - if I take the growth into consideration (and sure, things may change), I'd see them at this stage fairly valued around $6.50.