TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[Fiordland Moose]

Are you just stirring or would you have any evidence?

Fair market value of tra's property is higher than its bv which is at cost, something they've talked to before. Think they've even said what the uplift is at one point as well, but that'll be outdated now.

[winner (n)]

As at March 21 the property difference was 14m

See page 26 (screenshot file too big to post)

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/378857/354368.pdf

Think they threw in this slide in ASM preso to alleviate fear they might be going broke because of lockdowns etc .....sneaky eh

Got over $100m of property now

[Basil]

FY25 PE is 11.0 for a company that has a historic and prospective CAGR of 7%.
Worth all of what it closed at yesterday in my opinion.

[LoungeLizard]

Index inclusion didn't work out as we all had hoped, but no-one who joined the party early enough can't not be happy in getting on board. 30% return in three months- not a bad bit of business.
I'm staying in for the ride in the medium turn as it is clear that TRA are in for another good year, the yield remains attractive and SP of $5 is still very possible.
Thanks again to Basil for another good heads up. That's two for two. Care to go for the trifecta, mate?

[Basil]

You're most welcome mate. 35% to be precise inclusive of October dividend for those who backed up the truck at $3.50 a few months back, and I recall you were one of the astute ones who did. Yes, it's been quite a year with HLG as well eh!  

I remain with a very high level of conviction on TRA.  No other stock I know of on those highly attractive metrics I mentioned above with their track record of growth and outlook for more of the same growth in the years to come.   Awesome management too, good guys and growth to come in the long run with their truly brilliant marketing.

The Trifecta. This is the time of year to relax and enjoy some of one's successes.  I am sure 2024 will bring its own challenges and opportunities.

[winner (n)]

FY25 PE is 11.0 for a company that has a historic and prospective CAGR of 7%.
Worth all of what it closed at yesterday in my opinion.

At share price of 468 stuff all future growth implied if you use the DDM

Share price should be over 5 bucks to reflect reality I'm my opinion

[Basil]

No disagreement from me mate and the dividend discount model IS the most relevant one for old dog's like us eh.   
Craigs price target issued late November is $4.91.  That was when the 10 year Govt stock rate was considerably higher than where it currently sits so if adjusted for risk free rate today they agree its 12 month target price is over $5.  Its just that everyone, me included (human nature eh) wants that $5+ now.
Who was it that once said the market is a great mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient?  Buffet ?

[Mos]

Agree forward looking metrics are undemanding at $5.00 and a solid hold at these levels expecting good eps growth, especially with the brand campaign increasing share, new site roll outs and the prospect of finance headwinds turning to tail winds at some point. A well managed company with a clearly articulated strategy with impressive delivery.

[Basil]

Index inclusion didn't work out as we all had hoped, but no-one who joined the party early enough can't not be happy in getting on board. 30% return in three months- not a bad bit of business.
I'm staying in for the ride in the medium turn as it is clear that TRA are in for another good year, the yield remains attractive and SP of $5 is still very possible.
Thanks again to Basil for another good heads up. That's two for two. Care to go for the trifecta, mate?

See Barramundi thread for the trifecta mate.  This horses previous form is a little bit patchy but up for a stellar 2024 is my call.  Packed with tech stocks so loves a firm track from falling interest rates. Speaking of such I think we are going to see those finance cost headwinds change to tailwinds for TRA a lot earlier than the RBNZ are currently projecting after that shocking GDP fall confirming a recession earlier this week.   RBNZ to start cutting mid 2024 ?

[winner (n)]

Share price slip sliding away

Guy on other channel reckons 430 by end of week

[Basil]

Yes it will be very interesting to see where it settles after the excitement of index inclusion.
 

[Mos]

Opportunity to add more under $4 would be great - but I am not that hopeful.

[Basil]

Fiordland Moose has access to all brokers research and kindly posted these consensus numbers for the years ahead a short while back.

FY25 EPS: 42.36 (PE 11x)
FY26 EPS: 48.85 (PE 10.2x)

FY24 DPS: 25 declared, 34.7 gross (7.5% gross yield @ $4.66 spot)
FY25 DPS: 27 declared, 37.5 gross (8% gross)
FY26 DPS: 29.3 declared,

FY24 only a few months off being done and dusted so my focus is very much on FY25, FY26 and beyond numbers.
Any opportunity, (if presented) to buy at 10 times next years eps (FY25 42.36 cps) would certainly command a lot of my attention.

[lorraina]

One very expensive Ferrari.  ......[ or two cheapies ]
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/423731/409831.pdf

[BlackPeter]

One very expensive Ferrari.  ......[ or two cheapies ]
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/423731/409831.pdf

Hmm - I was wondering where all these cheap shares at index inclusion came from. So it was Grant who spoilt the fun for everybody?

Is this what people call a mean streak ... or does he think the share is not more worth?