TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[Waltzing]

up up and away.....

[Dolcile]

Bugger, if I was paying attention yesterday - and not enjoying a cold beer - I'd have tipped in a few more bob at $7 just for good weekend vibes. 

[Basil]

There's always Monday.  I wouldn't mind wagering a few bucks you revalue your portfolio at month end too   
Speaking of good vibes, there should be a really good one at the annual meeting this year as we all celebrate together a decade of growth.
Extract from the opening comments in the annual report sums it up nicely.
"This year marks a full decade of consistent growth and plenty of satisfied shareholders. Since 2014, 
we've tripled our profits, quadrupled dividends and revved up market share. And we're not done yet – 
the engine is just starting to warm up.
 To our shareholders, customers and team, thanks for backing us. We're proud to be New Zealand's largest
buyer and seller of used vehicles along with auto finance and insurance – and we'll keep delivering the
goods whether it's Paddy Gower's V-Dub with the flower, or that one with the Macca's bag still in it!
 On behalf of the Board and management of Turners Automotive Group Limited, we are pleased to present
the Annual Report for the financial year ended 31 March 2025.
 Beep Beep !"
I haven't been for a few years but I think this years annual meeting attendance is a "must do"

[Dolcile]

7 dollar party !!

Well done holders.

[BlackPeter]

Inspired by some work esteemed Snoopy did on other channel re Nvudia I did this for Turners

Grahams Formula V = EPS(8 + 2g)

So 6.85 = .43.3 x (8 +2g)

Solving for g(rowth) gives 8 ....market pricing in a 8% growth rate for Turners

What's the CAGR for last 10 years?

10 years earnings CAGR for TRA was 7.9 .

So, yes - if they keep growing with that speed, they are really cheap.

[Basil]

Congrats to all holders. 
Some might be interested to note that since the Tina campaign kicked off, eps was 24.4 cps in FY20 https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Turners-Annual-Report-2020_electronic.pdf and has grown to 43.3 cps in FY25, a 12% CAGR in EPS over the last 5 years ! 

Remarkably this growth came about notwithstanding most of those years were affected by either Covid or the longest running recession since the GFC. (Todd described last winter's trading as worse than the GFC)  Demonstrates the extra growth Tina has brought to the company in recent years as well as a remarkable resiliency of the business..

[Waltzing]

tis da new high? boy oh boy..

[Basil]

Agree its had a great run in the last year and I couldn't be happier but I think its very important to think medium to long term which is why I have no intention of selling any of mine.  Backing out the imminently due FY25 Q4 dividend of 9 cps shareholders at $7.10 are paying a net $7.01 for all future earnings for this company which has a proven CAGR of 12% across the most difficult 5 years of trading in N.Z's retail history.  To call this stock resilient is to miss the point of how exceptionally resilient it really is and how remarkable the growth story is against such extreme economic and pandemic adversity.

Based on Forsyth Barr's numbers at $7.01, (net) buyers are paying just 13.25 times next year's (FY27) earnings.  That still seems compelling to me and is at a huge discount to the average metrics the market trades on despite Turners extraordinary track record. I think this is undoubtedly one of the very best managed companies on the NZX.   Let me put it this way, I don't ever miss even one minute of sleep wondering if Todd, Aaron and other senior management could be doing a better job.

[Stoploss]

Agree its had a great run in the last year and I couldn't be happier but I think its very important to think medium to long term which is why I have no intention of selling any of mine.  Backing out the imminently due FY25 Q4 dividend of 9 cps shareholders at $7.10 are paying a net $7.01 for all future earnings for this company which has a proven CAGR of 12% across the most difficult 5 years of trading in N.Z's retail history.  To call this stock resilient is to miss the point of how exceptionally resilient it really is and how remarkable the growth story is against such extreme economic and pandemic adversity.

Based on Forsyth Barr's numbers at $7.01, (net) buyers are paying just 13.25 times next year's (FY27) earnings.  That still seems compelling to me and is at a huge discount to the average metrics the market trades on despite Turners extraordinary track record. I think this is undoubtedly one of the very best managed companies on the NZX.   Let me put it this way, I don't ever miss even one minute of sleep wondering if Todd, Aaron and other senior management could be doing a better job.

Sounds like life's too easy Roger, get some FBU in the portfolio to spice things up ( or down would be more apt)

[Waltzing]

are they scones an good at the AGM? and are there any fill rolls with perfect puffy pastry?

just wondering...

[Dolcile]

Not to pour cold water on what is a phenomenal company and now fantastic share price growth,... but I'd just caution that the recent share price has been driven by low volume.  So as soon as someone actually wants to sell a decent partial (but why would you?) we might see it step down as quickly as it has risen.

[Waltzing]

oh well that would be great!!! but more likely an off market deal to unload large vols... share price wont move...

[Waltzing]

7.15....

[KW]

Congrats to all holders. 
Some might be interested to note that since the Tina campaign kicked off, eps was 24.4 cps in FY20 https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Turners-Annual-Report-2020_electronic.pdf and has grown to 43.3 cps in FY25, a 12% CAGR in EPS over the last 5 years ! 

Remarkably this growth came about notwithstanding most of those years were affected by either Covid or the longest running recession since the GFC. (Todd described last winter's trading as worse than the GFC)  Demonstrates the extra growth Tina has brought to the company in recent years as well as a remarkable resiliency of the business..

A lot of it is simply inflation.  If the price of everything goes up by 50% then revenue goes up 50%, and so do your profits.  

[Basil]

You raise a fair point KW that inflation has certainly been a material factor over that period with some years over 7% per annum but according to the RBNZ inflation calculator the cumulative compound inflation from Q1 2020 to Q1 2025 totaled 23.48% and Turners earnings per share grew 77.46%.  Yes it was a material percentage but I would draw your attention to what is arguably the best other retailer on the NZX that trades on a PE of 19.2, that being Briscoes.  Its eps actually declined from 28 cps to 27 cps over that 5 year period with the loss in earnings due to inflation on top of that. 

Briscoes is certainly not alone in that regard, in fact, many other companies on the NZX hardly grew earnings at all or had an earnings decline over what was arguably the most challenging 5 year period of trading conditions in our lifetime.  To grow EPS by 77.46% over that period is a real stand-out achievement in my view and I really look forward to them kicking some serious financial goals when the economy eventually climbs its way out of the moribund state its in.