TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[Basil]

... and that's even without Musk's support to devalue them ;

LOL Very true !
Todd told me they are the go-to place that Tesla sends its clients too for disposing of their old model car so he has good market intelligence of that they're really selling for, much as they have with most makes and models of cars out there.

[winner (n)]

Suppose Todd, Grant et al are in Melbourne at moment cheering on their protege

Go fast Liam, you were pretty good in a crappy car so show them how good you are in a decent car. But dont best Max for goodness sake

[lorraina]

It could be a fun ho season.
Max,Liam,Lewis,Charles,Lando and Oscar have history of not giving way to any one,least of all their team mate.!!!
Further back George is not know for giving way,and new wild team mate Kimi should be good for taking a few out.
Fernando will not put up with fun and games from anyone,while Esteban has never listened to team orders.
I am expecting fireworks.

[Basil]

Hopefully TRA has stopped sponsoring him now that he's paid a King's ransom to be part of the big league. I never understood the payback but never mind, Turners Directors and management seem to have a bloody good handle on how to drive the company forward to be consistently on the podium for one of the very best performing companies.

[FatTed]

That would depend how much Liam has to pay his sponsors to get out of his contract with them

[Waltzing]

should flatten on the top here for a while....we will put the next lot of reports through anthropic..

[Dolcile]

I was just updating my spreadsheet for Turners and noticed that if they hit the FY guidance of at least $53m PBT, that means the FY25 H2 will be a profit of at least $26.1m. That would be 11% higher than that FY24 H2 profit of $23.5m.  Quite remarkable in the current environment.

[winner (n)]

I was just updating my spreadsheet for Turners and noticed that if they hit the FY guidance of at least $53m PBT, that means the FY25 H2 will be a profit of at least $26.1m. That would be 11% higher than that FY24 H2 profit of $23.5m.  Quite remarkable in the current environment.

You onto to it dolcite

Exciting eh

Could even be another profit upgrade in April now financial year almost over and they'll know how more than $53m it s going to be

[Ferg]

Exciting eh

Could even be another profit upgrade in April now financial year almost over and they'll know how more than $53m it s going to be

Just like the Glebes eh?

Up the Glebes!

[Basil]

I was just updating my spreadsheet for Turners and noticed that if they hit the FY guidance of at least $53m PBT, that means the FY25 H2 will be a profit of at least $26.1m. That would be 11% higher than that FY24 H2 profit of $23.5m.  Quite remarkable in the current environment.

If they announce $56m 2H profit will be 23.8% more than the previous comparable period....and we have interest rate cuts to come on 9 April and 28 May when the RBNZ meets.  I think they can easily do $60m NPBT in FY26 which works out to eps of 50.5 cps after tax. Looking forward (FY26 starts in 9 days time) That puts Turners on a forward FY26 PE of just 11.6 and it trades cum a 7 cent fully imputed quarterly dividend due next month.

5 years ago to the day, today, markets around the world melted down in a frenzy of fear as the worst of Covid fears fueled precipitous selling.  Very, very few companies have weathered the fiercest of economic storms that ensued and the deepest recession in 30 years and come out smelling like Roses.    Turners is one of them and there aren't many. Anyway, enough said from me   Actions speak louder than words, this is my #1 investment position.   

[Dolcile]

Totally agree Basil.   What PE do you think is fair, 15x?

[Waltzing]

7.5 div then ... on wards to 8

[Basil]

Totally agree Basil.   What PE do you think is fair, 15x?

Good question.   Typically, I see the analysts comparing them with other motor vehicle industry players many of whom sell new vehicles and are far more cyclical.  Comparisons to other retailers can also be misleading in that purchases of a typical motor vehicle that TRA sell, (basic transport in the $10-20K category) is a needs based purchase rather than by way of comparison, for example a new Ford Ranger from Colonial Motors which will be more cyclical depending on the state of the farming industry.

Also a big part of their business is finance and of course insurance.  The way they've been able to grow eps at 7% over the last 5 years given all the challenges that period threw at them is deeply impressive and with branch expansion , expansion into vehicle servicing which could be big, growth in market share through their award winning marketing, their in depth market intelligence and many other factors I see no reason why eps growth of 7% per annum or thereabouts is not sustainable for the foreseeable future.

Taking everything into account I think a forward PE somewhere in the mid-teens, 15-16 feels right to me.     

[winner (n)]

Good question.   Typically, I see the analysts comparing them with other motor vehicle industry players many of whom sell new vehicles and are far more cyclical.  Comparisons to other retailers can also be misleading in that purchases of a typical motor vehicle that TRA sell, (basic transport in the $10-20K category) is a needs based purchase rather than by way of comparison, for example a new Ford Ranger from Colonial Motors which will be more cyclical depending on the state of the farming industry.

Also a big part of their business is finance and of course insurance.  The way they've been able to grow eps at 7% over the last 5 years given all the challenges that period threw at them is deeply impressive and with branch expansion , expansion into vehicle servicing which could be big, growth in market share through their award winning marketing, their in depth market intelligence and many other factors I see no reason why eps growth of 7% per annum or thereabouts is not sustainable for the foreseeable future.

Taking everything into account I think a forward PE somewhere in the mid-teens, 15-16 feels right to me.     

So $750 on cards after full year results

[Ferg]

So $750 on cards after full year results

A market capitalisation of $67b would be more than the markets cap's of FPH, MEL, AIA, IFT & MCY added together. 

Big call.