2CC - 2 Cheap Cars Group

[Basil]

Crikey! Has the self proclaimed dividend hound lost his mind and suddenly become a share trader chasing short term capital gains?
Grab your popcorn, sit back and watch this space. David Sena versus Basil the Beagle.

I hope you enjoyed the show and didn't get too sick eating huge quantities of popcorn lol.

Anyway...best order in a new shipment of popcorn if you aren't completely sick of it already.  I hate the stuff as it gets stuck in the gaps of my teeth and is super annoying.  MFB is next cab off the rank for completion of the Cameron partners review in November.  The fun and games there are about to commence.  Toot, toot, all aboard the MFB train.

[Otago K]

I hope you enjoyed the show and didn't get too sick eating huge quantities of popcorn lol.

Anyway...best order in a new shipment of popcorn if you aren't completely sick of it already.  I hate the stuff as it gets stuck in the gaps of my teeth and is super annoying.  MFB is next cab off the rank for completion of the Cameron partners review in November.  The fun and games there are about to commence.  Toot, toot, all aboard the MFB train.

Firstly a quick Thanks for the commitment you have had to task that was at hand. While I might have not always seen things as others might have along the journey I have taken some time since things began being disclosed over the last day and for the skin I have in the game, I've got in a pragmatic sense it's better than where we started and I can also consider what some redeploying the funds might offer. Certainly I personally feel the 2CC holding has a greater value but it is what it is, and the cash out is where it will end.
I can't not also fail to take a moment to say Thanks to lorraina, and if not too disrespectful say Congratulations for the wins of your long held convictions to 2CC.

[Basil]

Reasons I am accepting Sena's revised offer at 90 cents.

1, The fact is that microcaps as a general asset class do command lower metrics than mid caps like TRA. Classic well established investment analysis theory suggests that the average intelligent investor needs a 1-2% extra ROI for the risks and lack of liquidity with very small companies

2. TRA has a proven track record since the Tina Campaign of 12% CAGR in EPS whereas by comparison. 2CC is low single digits EPS growth but as Snoopy has pointed out this has been achieved on declining sales and only through extra operational efficiencies Sena has been able to achieve. You can only take that process so far

3. TRA's business model is more diverse with multiple revenue streams and there are solid grounds to believe that they will return to an EPS CAGR in the years ahead at a very similar rate to the last 5 years after slightly slower growth this year.

4. On an objective basis there are credible signs that 2CC's business is a pure cyclical. Yes he's on track for $5m+ in FY27 but there are very strong tailwinds to the budget car sector from the Middle East crisis and he's been at similar levels of profit in previous years so where's the growth ?

5. There is a credible case to be made that there is no growth here because although numerically it can be shown that there has been low single digit EPS growth since it listed this could simply be because of the stage of the cycle it listed at compared to now. i.e. the evidence is not compelling that this really is a growth company.

6. With Sena likely holding over 80% going forward if the takeover fails, the liquidity will dry up and shareholders will be locked in for who knows how long, like MCK shareholders are now) and a disaffected majority shareholder might make changes to certain aspects of the way the company is run to their own advantage. I'm not going to elaborate on a public forum how that might be done.

7. I am comfortable with my across the business cycles forward earnings estimate of $4.5m which I note is nearly 40% higher than FY26. That puts the shares on a PE of 9. By comparison with the recent pullback by TRA from just over $9 to around $7.50 based on average analyst forecasts TRA are trading on a forward FY28 multiple of just 12.6 times with a 5 year CAGR of 12%. I think that's compelling and a great place to reallocate the proceeds of the takeover.

8. I've met Todd and Aaron many times and they have my full confidence. I've never met David Sena and the fact that he's only allowing online meetings is frankly quite a turn off.

 9. I think for the proven growth rate, better liquidity with it being a mid cap stock, well proven management team with decades of experience and the fact that I know and trust Todd and Aaron I am far more comfortable holding TRA going forward than 2CC and I think their metrics are actually better value than 2CC on a risk, more resilient and stable business model and growth adjusted basis. (5 years growing record profits in a row compared to wild swings in 2CC's profitability over the same timeframe).

10.. I have come to seeing 90 cents as either fair value, or so close to fair value, (certainly 85-90% of fair value), there is no point in holding out for more which might take years to materialize.

11. I think 90 cents will be enough to seal the deal and the holdouts will simply delay the receipt of their funds due to their delayed compulsory acqusition process they will put themselves through.

12. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Happy to take the money and move on to the next opportunity.

[Plata]

I accepted earlier today. 90 cents is fair to both parties given the circumstances IMO. If it gets stuck at 89% acceptances shall we all send open emails to the holdouts

[Basil]

I accepted earlier today. 90 cents is fair to both parties given the circumstances IMO. If it gets stuck at 89% acceptances shall we all send open emails to the holdouts

Yes lol
I accepted earlier this afternoon.

[SCOTTY]

I emailed my acceptance on Wednesday 16th. Received email today confirming application processing and acceptance.