2CC - 2 Cheap Cars Group

[Basil]

While Basil is supremely confident (if not supremely modest) and with 2CC payout expectations recently rising from anywhere between $1.00 to $1.60 it is fascinating to see some respected doubters emerge in the form of Snoopy (aka Red Baron) and Value NZ.

Value and Percy are quite correct that there are a range of potential outcomes here.
The only thing I would say I am supremely confident of is that the offer will not be a success at 80 cents and that confidence is based on some very solid intel.
The other Beagle needs to spend more time actually reading the takeover documents.
Yes...to ordering in more popcorn.  This could get even more interesting.

[LoungeLizard]

The problem with being confident that the offer won't be successful, is that, even if true, then what? Back to business as normal? With a majority shareholder who happens to be the CEO and is probably frustrated that he wasn't able to buy the company at what he probably feels was fair value. Not a good outcome for anyone I would have thought and not a good sign going forward. Having trust in Management is crucial if you are going to hand them your money. Who now, amongst the smaller shareholders, trusts Senna to act in their interests?

[Basil]

I'm cautiously optimistic that a higher price can be negotiated.

[lorraina]

The problem with being confident that the offer won't be successful, is that, even if true, then what? Back to business as normal? With a majority shareholder who happens to be the CEO and is probably frustrated that he wasn't able to buy the company at what he probably feels was fair value. Not a good outcome for anyone I would have thought and not a good sign going forward. Having trust in Management is crucial if you are going to hand them your money. Who now, amongst the smaller shareholders, trusts Senna to act in their interests?

There is a lot going on with competent people pointing out the flaws in the very poor independent report.
David Sena has extended his offer until the 23rd September.
I expect his low acceptance level will make him willing to speak and discuss this with the competent people.
Perhaps the other 2CC directors will realise shareholders best interests are being undermined by the independent report,,and may have second thoughts. 
I see a lot of water going under the bridge before the 23rd September.
We must consider who will gain the most by this take over. Only one person whose name is David Sena.
It would be helpful to shareholders and the market for ACC to declare their position,ie whether they intend to accept the offer or not.

[LoungeLizard]

ALl true and there's a number of ways this would go, but I was just addressing the scenario where the offer lapses and Senna admits defeat and goes back to running the business (and perhaps trying to increase his holding to the 90% mark over time). There's a lot of bad blood being created here and he is the majority shareholder and CEO so he has a lot of influence either way. I'm just saying I wouldn't want him in charge of looking after my money going forward. Who would?

[Basil]

Fortune favours the brave.  I'm okay with staying on the bus if a deal can't be reached.  CDL did not get to 90% with MCK and they've acted with integrity since then.  Oliver Mander thinks David Sena is a pretty good CEO.  I don't see him burring the house down out of spite if he fails to get to 90%.

[lorraina]

Good points.
It's the flawed independent report that is the  current issue.
It backs up Sena's and the directors' actions.
But shareholders should not be made to make a financial decision on a flawed report. 

[Basil]

it is fascinating to see some respected doubters emerge in the form of Snoopy (aka Red Baron) and Value NZ.

Count Snoopy out, he just posted this on ST.

Up until now I have just relied on the views quoted by the unofficial 'Union of dissenters' on Shartrader. And I must say none of you have let me down. Everything you have quoted seems accurate.

As for value N.Z. he broadly concurred with my probability analysis posted earlier today that I have subsequently deleted for several reasons.

Order some more popcorn in....the dog is far from finished with this.  Give a Beagle a bone to gnaw away on and guess what he does lol