ATM-A2 MILK

[Waltzing]

no risk then... y got a bit of time before XI invades TW... high risk , high reward...  bird in hand comes to mind..

[winner (n)]

10% swing from high to low today is huge

[Minimoke]

10% swing from high to low today is huge

And no speeding ticket. Or enquiry.

[Left Field]

Tomorrow is ATM's ex dividend date... (Maybe a reason for the recent SP upswing? )  Dividend payment date 4 April.

However on a PE basis near 40 the current SP seems to have gotten ahead of any FA justification.

[Waltzing]

it could be that if access to the china market continues and the NZ dollar keeps coming under deficit pressure than tnis high multiple might just be a reflection that china is a HUGE market and ATM has more cash in the bank than it seems to know what to do with....

its always been a high p/E stock.... ie what percentage of its trading history has it trader above Normal P/E ranges of 8 to 16..

[Minimoke]

Not very often we see trades like this so early in the day (ie before ASX opens)

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Closed the day at $9.24. Someone did very well. And someone will be a bit gloomy.

[BlackPeter]

Sadly BP's been posting the same ole, same ole since ATM was born.....

Back in those days he reckoned ATM had no IP, no 'moat,'no research,   Chinese market was rubbish, ATM wouldn't gain market share etc etc...

(Just look back at the ATM thread on the other channel and you'll see what I mean.)

All hype he say's now. Board and Management rubbish.... same ole, same ole sad story.

Disc: My own share portfolio is over $1 mill better off thanks to ATM so of course I'm a tab biased..... and while I sold off most of my holding in the $18 to $21 days, I still hold and have added more since the news of future ATM dividends.

IMO ATM has a useful place in a balanced NZX long term portfolio (with appropriate risk management via TA/FA analysis.)

and nothing has changed. Just remind us, how much ATM has returned to shareholders so far. Did they pay this year a wee dividend? I think yes, but apart from that - a big fat zero.

So, yes, ATM is just another game to attract the greater fools - and lucky some of us, there seems to be a big supply.

Pretty sad, Left Field, that you need to attack the messenger, but I reccon, this is the last thing left to you when you are running out of arguments. So sharetrader ... just go back to them.

But yes, some people win and some people lose with these hype inflated stocks. Its like with the lottery, glad to hear you say you made some money with them. On the other hand - if this is true - why are you so bitter?

[winner (n)]

BP recall that the power of story drives corporate value, ie the share price.

A good story adds substance to numbers based on financials

And A2 has a great story and that story is valued at around $3 billion ...without that great story it's share price probably be about $5

Aswath Damodaran has written a lot about the power of stories

[Basil]

it could be that if access to the china market continues and the NZ dollar keeps coming under deficit pressure than tnis high multiple might just be a reflection that china is a HUGE market and ATM has more cash in the bank than it seems to know what to do with....

its always been a high p/E stock.... ie what percentage of its trading history has it trader above Normal P/E ranges of 8 to 16..

The PE of 30 was warranted back in the day under Geoffrey Babbage's legendary leadership when it was growing eps at about 30% per annum.  I don't think its warranted now but if people believe the good times are back and they can grow eps at 20-30% for the foreseeable future, good luck to them I say, and they'll need it.

[Greekwatchdog]

This out of the Herald which would explain this mornings opening..

Global marketer a2 Milk raced to an intraday high of $10.10 after learning that it will remain in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (Asia Pacific), but it finished 12c down at $9.24, still up nearly 45% so far this year.

[BlackPeter]

BP recall that the power of story drives corporate value, ie the share price.

A good story adds substance to numbers based on financials

And A2 has a great story and that story is valued at around $3 billion ...without that great story it's share price probably be about $5

Aswath Damodaran has written a lot about the power of stories

Absolutely - All of human history is driven by great and powerful stories. Paganism, Confucius, Daoism, Buddha, Hinduism, Old Testament, Christianity, Koran and so many more. These stories helped to create amazing faith based enterprises running for millenia and happily making lots of money, accumulating power and furthering the kill rate.

Not as long living, but still powerful are all these stories man made up about nations and nationality. While the kill rate is probably similar than the kill rate of the religious stories, the longevity of these stories is measured only in centuries vs millenia.

And then there are the stories driving (secular) enterprises. Probably less killing (than above, though some of them help nations and religions to kill), less money to be made and a typical lifetime of only a handful of decades, but still - there are some amazing stories around: Tesla, amazon, Google, Coca Cola, MacDonalds, Lockheed Martin, Heckler & Koch, Siemens, Tyssen Krupp, Bosch, BASF, Bayer, BAE Systems  ...

Leaves us with the rest ... some people just spring on anything promising them a free lunch. Welcome to the world of Comvita and A2M - and yes, apparantly even they can be worth billions while the bubble is inflated!

[BlackPeter]

... but back from these inspirational stories to boring fundamentals and trends ...

average (10 yr) PE is 44.5;
forward PE (3 yrs) is 32 with a forwad earnings CAGR of 5; Hmmm ... this a growth company?

... and the trend?

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Does this really look like a rocket starting through? In the big picture it looks more like a ripple after a big splash.

Anyway - good luck to punters - I think they will need it.

[Poet]

[Waltzing]

perfect!!!

[Minimoke]

Closed the day at $9.24. Someone did very well. And someone will be a bit gloomy.

What a difference a week makes. Now trading at $8.67