ATM-A2 MILK

[BlackPeter]

Finally some good news for shareholders, guidance upgrade and a divi coming. Should stem the SP bleed

True - Elon Musk wants the US to start with "extreme breeding".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/19/he-has-already-fathered-many-children-now-musk-wants-all-of-the-us-to-embrace-extreme-breeding

No doubt his buddy Trump will hands on help with the program and the US will follow like a flock of sheep. They always do.

Hey, and all these extremely bred babies will need lots of ATM IF to turn out as extremely bred adults. No doubt this will increase the need for A2 IF.

[Left Field]

Finally some good news for shareholders, guidance upgrade and a divi coming. Should stem the SP bleed

As an initial buyer of ATM back in the days at 50c and now freeholder of a nice sized holding I'm liking today's news!

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442416/attachment/432552/442416-432552.pdf

[Minimoke]

Yeah. We are back to where we were Sept 2017.

[KW]

That cash pile of theirs accounted for 26% of their net profit ($40M interest income out of $153M profit).  As cash is returned to shareholders, so too will their net profit fall.

[KW]

As an initial buyer of ATM back in the days at 50c and now freeholder of a nice sized holding I'm liking today's news!

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442416/attachment/432552/442416-432552.pdf

I sold mine 5 years ago and bought a house, which has gone up 50%+ since then.  

[Left Field]

I sold mine 5 years ago and bought a house, which has gone up 50%+ since then. 

Well done you! Similar success story here..... tho I held on to a few (for sentimental reasons) and am happy to now be getting a useful return on these to further fund my happy retirement.

ATM was a great investment back in the days!

[CG]

That cash pile of theirs accounted for 26% of their net profit ($40M interest income out of $153M profit).  As cash is returned to shareholders, so too will their net profit fall.

Who said that this cash pile will be returned to shareholders? It will be used to develop the business. Whatever is left of this pile might be returned to shareholders as special dividends. Upcoming regular dividends will be paid out of future profit.

[winner (n)]

Somebody pointed out to me today that if A2 achieve the high single digit sales growth in FY25 they'll be back to where they were in 2020

Been a tough last 5 years for them

[winner (n)]

                 
Craigs DOWNGRADE A2 Milk

A but worried about decking birth rate in China

Just neutral now

[Minimoke]

Craigs DOWNGRADE A2 Milk

A but worried about decking birth rate in China

Just neutral now

It has actually been reported that
"Last year (2024) saw a slight rise in births after a lull due to the pandemic and because 2024 was the Chinese zodiac year of the dragon - with children born that year considered likely to be ambitious and have great fortune."

That said its obvious they arent breeding like rabbits.

[winner (n)]

Sorry mini ...... reason for downgrade was  "a sharp decline in marriages" in China likely impacting future birth rates.

[KW]

Marriages fell to a record low, a 20.5% drop from the year before.  Marriage is a required precursor for babies as its not culturally acceptable to have babies out of wedlock. 

Also divorces are on the rise.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/10/china/china-marriage-registrations-record-low-2024-intl-hnk/index.html

[Minimoke]

$0.085 first ever dividend. finally a return to shareholders

$91.725 half year net profit on $893m operating revenue  up 10.1%


More specifically, the Company:
1. Achieved double digit revenue growth with full year revenue and earnings guidance upgraded
2. Delivered English label IMF2 double-digit revenue growth, supported by English label market recovery
3. Continued to gain record market share in China label IMF whilst minimising impact from temporary supply constraints
4. Ramped up innovation launching new products in IMF and Other Nutritionals targeting infants, kids and seniors segments
5. Introduced dividend policy for the first time in Company history and declared interim dividend for 1H25

[Minimoke]

Craigs DOWNGRADE A2 Milk

A but worried about decking birth rate in China

Just neutral now

What do we think of Craigs analysis now?

Or ForBar who said "Forsyth Barr analysts don't expect any major surprises in the first-half result of NZX-listed The a2 Milk Company (ATM), given the latest data from research group Kantar.
The data for a2 Milk's first half highlights low single-digit growth, with a strong gain in market share in the second quarter, mainly from China Label.
Growth, however, is slightly below consensus infant formula expectations, said Forsyth Barr analysts Matt Montgomerie and Benjamin Crozier.
"However, given data volatility, ATM's track record of exceeding Kantar's China Label growth, and recent revenue gains in other areas (primarily Mataura Valley Milk and Nutritionals), we don't anticipate material surprises in ATM's 1H25 result," they said."

[winner (n)]

Best but Mini is the bit about what they doing in China which David can't share with us today.