ATM-A2 MILK

[Minimoke]

Mimimoke

Hi you might remember me Blackeyed. I have attached a file on Chinese Birth Rates which I have authored. I give ypu permission to copy it and post on Hotcopper Australia. Its all sourced and footnoted. Could you convert from Word to PDF before posting as my PDF file is too big to post here.

Thanks
That's an interesting read. Sorry not sure how to post large documents on HC. Best I can usually do is  post an image.

I wonder how many families that have not had their kids registered for Hukou are IF consumers.

[blackeyed]

Mimimoke
Its not a large document as far as bytes go and it can be posted.I believe the information is vital in that it exposes the fragile notion of the big shorts and that is to use falling published birth rates (which are wrong) to bash A2's share price. Kind regards

[Minimoke]

Mimimoke
Its not a large document as far as bytes go and it can be posted.I believe the information is vital in that it exposes the fragile notion of the big shorts and that is to use falling published birth rates (which are wrong) to bash A2's share price. Kind regards

Done. (I havent posted a doc before - had to figure out it prefers PDF format) Not attributed so let me know if you want it attributed.

[blackeyed]

Thanks Mimi I owe you one. The subtext of this is that if you notice the CEO of A2 is always claiming the market in China is in steep decline when its not and when he can't prove it to make mediocre performance look great. But its not and his renumeration hurdles this year were set really low and lead to the major sharemarket decline, so he got his bonuses and we got rubbish. Now if you see the latest results from Danone, they grew revenue by 10% in IF and stated they had an extremely strong quarter with the results considerably better than David B's first half. Its time to put pressure on for tougher and higher targets and to ignore the narrative he has created. Ask him to prove that the figures he are quoting and are for all channels. He can't.

[Buzz]

@blackeyed, I think you need to out yourself on this forum. Johnathan, you got banned from Hotcopper quite a while ago, for continuously abusing detractors and even promoters of A2M/ATM that didn't appear to you to support your hypothesis, sometimes awful knee jerk reactions that even when pointed out that you got the wrong end of the stick, you would never bring yourself to apologise or withdraw.

Now you suck in Minimoke to post your article on Hotcopper, because you can't. Johnathan, you should at the very least include in your article, attribution to the author (yourself apparently) and disclose your credentials to be making this analysis and drawing these conclusions and your authenticity and credibility. An anonymous article has absolutely zero credibility, which would be an ignominious outcome for all the hard work you clearly have put in to researching and writing it.

This forum is a nice place, but it is a back-water in the scheme of forums and your audience here is minute, most of whom though actually think ATM is a dog stock, for which they have given their reasoning. So far it looks like you've snuck in the door because the Admin doesn't know your history elsewhere and my advice to you and them, is to desist from manipulating other members here to do your work, and don't ever revert to your awful persona that got you banned from Hotcopper.

[Minimoke]

@blackeyed, I think you need to out yourself on this forum. Johnathan, you got banned from Hotcopper quite a while ago, for continuously abusing detractors and even promoters of A2M/ATM that didn't appear to you to support your hypothesis, sometimes awful knee jerk reactions that even when pointed out that you got the wrong end of the stick, you would never bring yourself to apologise or withdraw.

Now you suck in Minimoke to post your article on Hotcopper, because you can't. Johnathan, you should at the very least include in your article, attribution to the author (yourself apparently) and disclose your credentials to be making this analysis and drawing these conclusions and your authenticity and credibility. An anonymous article has absolutely zero credibility, which would be an ignominious outcome for all the hard work you clearly have put in to researching and writing it.

This forum is a nice place, but it is a back-water in the scheme of forums and your audience here is minute, most of whom though actually think ATM is a dog stock, for which they have given their reasoning. So far it looks like you've snuck in the door because the Admin doesn't know your history elsewhere and my advice to you and them, is to desist from manipulating other members here to do your work, and don't ever revert to your awful persona that got you banned from Hotcopper.

just to be clear i dont mind posting the article.

Like any written piece (like in financial journals and broker reports) its entirely up to the reader to make what they want of the written word.

Perhaps it adds to a persons total body of knowledge. Or not..

One thing is for sure. You cant believe Annual Reports when they say they are holding back cash for M&A activity. And dont. And dont even spend it on divies or buy backs.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Mimi I owe you one. The subtext of this is that if you notice the CEO of A2 is always claiming the market in China is in steep decline when its not and when he can't prove it to make mediocre performance look great. But its not and his renumeration hurdles this year were set really low and lead to the major sharemarket decline, so he got his bonuses and we got rubbish. Now if you see the latest results from Danone, they grew revenue by 10% in IF and stated they had an extremely strong quarter with the results considerably better than David B's first half. Its time to put pressure on for tougher and higher targets and to ignore the narrative he has created. Ask him to prove that the figures he are quoting and are for all channels. He can't.

Fair enough, but when comparing ATM with Danone, you should consider that Danone is operating world wide in basically all major markets and selling basically all things milk, while ATM has in reality only one cash cow (China Infant formula), and that poor animal is losing fat quite rapidly.

So, yes - ATM is clearly designed to always fatten its board and senior staff, but it might not be quite fair to compare them to a worldwide operating milk giant. ATM choose to put all of its eggs into one basket (something some punters here advocate for as well - and shareholders did benefit from this strategy while things were good. Now they pay for it. There is no free lunch - I'd say - fair enough (but hey, I am not holding).

[Minimoke]

Interesting article from Keith Woodford at Interst.co



https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/126699/keith-woodford-provides-update-a2-milk-noting-good-science-always-wins-out-long

In there is a link to his latest research paper which concludes "Specific strategies for reducing exposure to bBCM7 and GD7 are two-fold. Bovine BCM7 is relatively easy to remove from the food-system by producing cows that produce A2 rather than A1 beta-casein or alternatively placing more emphasis on milks from other species such as sheep and goats, plus an emphasis on human milk for babies."

[Left Field]

Good update, thanks for posting Mini.

[Buzz]

Yes, good update, thanks Mini.

The uptrend continues, close $6.51 today, up 62.5% from the recent low. All key short term TA resistance broken, golden cross, super-golden (100/200ema) imminent, 61.8% FIB retrace from the previous high. Next resistance above $6.68 (minor) then $7.83 the previous high. That's another 20% upside from here, if it happens. Shorts (A2M) peaked in Feb, dropped off a bit but still elevated at 6.17%. Looks good backed by solid fundamentals, huge cash pile, no debt, growing market share, revenue and profit.

We should find out early April with the SML announce, whether ATM is part of the recovery for them. Specific mention by the CEO of "acquisitions" in the post ATM release conference call, may point to SML. Or some part in it.

[Left Field]

Couldn't find a Fonterra thread so post it here.... their interim report is impressive.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428329

Maybe this result will influence ATM SP?

[Minimoke]

Couldn't find a Fonterra thread so post it here.... their interim report is impressive.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428329

Maybe this result will influence ATM SP?

Also relevant to Synlait. Fonterra increase profits 20%. Synlait???

[Sideshow Bob]

Also relevant to Synlait. Fonterra increase profits 20%. Synlait???

SML have signaled their result, with a $17-21m loss.

More interested in their results for other reasons!! 

[Minimoke]

A2 have a bit of a track record of making market announcement about its relationship with Synlait. I find it interesting they are silent today after Synlaits trading halt announcement. And that they didn't get a mention in that announcement.

Market (including now the ASX has opened) seems unconcerned with SP holding broadly steady at $6.69

[Left Field]

NBR's Tim Hunter writes:

"A2 Milk's passive-aggressive play for Synlait
ANALYSIS: The infant formula marketer looks in a strong position to achieve ownership of the Dunsandel processing plant, holder of its prized China licence."

The article is behind a paywall, but food for thought.

Probably right......ATM 'well positioned.'