ATM-A2 MILK

[BlackPeter]

You  now claim I lost heaps with ATM.

I got the abacus out and here's how my investment in ATM has worked out FYI.

In the last 12 months ATM's SP low was $4.20. Yesterday it closed at $7.10 That's a gain of 69% in 2022. During the same time the NZX fell 11.8%

I first purchased ATM in Jan 2013 at .53c a share. At yesterday's close of $7.10 my 'loss' as you claim, is actually a gain of 1,239% .

Thus on an annual basis over the last 10 years ATM has yielded me a 123% pa SP growth.

I appreciate that some investors who purchased ATM at higher prices may currently be in a loss situation,  and as a long term investor I understand the pain.  However all investing is about DYOR and taking responsibility for your own decisions.

I wish you well and merely wanted to correct some of the incorrect statements you have made re ATM's IP  and my investments.

I'll say no more now on this topic and wish you a happy life too.

I did not claim you lost heaps with ATM.

I said "Look - I am sorry for you if you lost heaps with ATM"

Maybe you do some research into the meaning of the little word "if" before you continue to spread misinformation and non-sense.

[Minimoke]

Well that's all put a downer on the Christmas spirit.

[Ferg]

Well that's all put a downer on the Christmas spirit.

He does that.  Lucky for us this site has no negative reps the prickly one likes to dish out, even when he is wrong with what he thinks constitutes a lack of IP.

[Basil]

I think we all need to have a big group hug 

[Left Field]

ATM and SML in Bell Potter's 2023 picks

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18T_iZ5zWF2_j8xbHbluaVmiK5uaovawm/view

Must say their target SP for ATM of $A6.80 ($NZ 7.30) doesn't excite me much..... must be an error! lol.

[Minimoke]

Big day for me yesterday. At $7.57 I am  now back into my 20% loss comfort zone. I know "you should have sold blah blah blah." but I didn't - so ended up carry large paper loss. This has now shrunk to the point I'll comfortably hold while SP appears to be trending up.

[winner (n)]

Big day for me yesterday. At $7.57 I am  now back into my 20% loss comfort zone. I know "you should have sold blah blah blah." but I didn't - so ended up carry large paper loss. This has now shrunk to the point I'll comfortably hold while SP appears to be trending up.

Pretty good it's about 80% up from its reçent lows

You'll be in +ve territory before too long

[Hectorplains]

That's the highest A2 has traded since May 2021.

There's been no news to drive this either - other than the confidence booster of Greenwood sinking $200k into a purchase.  Anecdotally, sales are recovering quickly in China after the end to lockdowns. Confirmation of that should see the next leg up.   

[Minimoke]

That's the highest A2 has traded since May 2021.

There's been no news to drive this either - other than the confidence booster of Greenwood sinking $200k into a purchase.  Anecdotally, sales are recovering quickly in China after the end to lockdowns. Confirmation of that should see the next leg up.   

Also positive news on USA. I expect them to be leveraging the Infant Formula approval to create a really strong "trusted" healthy food brand.

[Left Field]

Also positive news on USA. I expect them to be leveraging the Infant Formula approval to create a really strong "trusted" healthy food brand.

USA ATM office in Boulder Colorado looks pretty sharp...preparing for big things.

https://ozarch.com/our-work/the-a2-milk-company

[Basil]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/
Trading at 36.5 times average analyst FY23 forecasted earnings.

[winner (n)]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-A2-MILK-COMPANY-LIMIT-11384022/financials/
Trading at 36.5 times average analyst FY23 forecasted earnings.

If you adjust for their cash mountain and Synlait investment (Andean few less shares from buyback) probably on an 'real adjusted PE' of 25 ..not too bad when simplywallstreet says future growth is about 19% pa

[Basil]

The whole adjust for their cash thing doesn't carry a lot of cred with me.
They need it for their reckless share buy-back and loss making milk processing operations.
Even if you did take $1 off per share for the cash, $730m, that brings the forward PE back to 32, more than it used to trade on in the good old days when it was growing strongly under Geoffry Babbage.
For mine, the share buy-back has already pushed this beyond fair value and momentum traders should be dancing very close to the door.
I don't think simply wall street or share clarity have much cred.  I never factor either into any of my investment decisions.
Can't help noticing that the average of 7 analysts price target is $6.59 one year hence and seeing as we all know it's never paid a dividend that suggests on a risk and time value of money basis fair value is somewhere about $6 now. Like I said above, the buy-back has pushed this too far.
Wonder how they are getting on with the class action lawsuits?  Best they keep plenty of cash on hand for that just in case😉
Good luck with it mate.  (Not trying to start something here but I felt someone needed to bring a dose of realism to this thread).

[Left Field]

.....the share buy-back has already pushed this beyond fair value and momentum traders should be dancing very close to the door.

Basil might be surprised, but in this instance I tend to agree with him.
ATM has had a good run in 2022 (SP up 60% from the low,)  but will SP growth continue at that pace in 2023?

ATM's been buying its own shares back and has done well if their average buy back price is around $5.40, they are currently up over 30%..... but maybe this buyback has inflated the SP recently?

If we also factor in a bit of Covid risk in the Chinese market, there is a chance of slower growth ahead. Plus the likelihood that ATM's launch into the USA IF market will not benefit ATM until FY24.

Accordingly, I suspect the current SP is a bit 'toppy' and has room to retrace up to 20% tho' much will depend on the strength of their next update.

Because of these factors I surprised myself by not picking ATM in the 2023 SP picking competition.

However with ATM currently about 8% of my portfolio I feel I'm 'well positioned' either way.
ATM remains a great long term hold IMHO.

[winner (n)]

Hey leftie ....share price up 80% from its reçent low ......not your 60%

Pretty cool eh

At 840, which isn't too far away, it be 100% up