ATM-A2 MILK

[Basil]

Thanks Winner.  The current share price makes no sense to me for a moderate growth mature company that's lost its first mover advantage.  Notice how all the skiting about their IP and how they could protect it stopped a few years back.  Agree the share price should start with $3 something...maybe flick me a PM when it goes under $3.80 and I'll have another look.  Its not like anyone is enjoying any dividend yield in the meantime while they recover at a very moderate pace.  Speaking of that I wonder if they will ever pay a dividend ?

[winner (n)]

So 2 taking legal action against that Care A2 Plus outfit

[Left Field]

So 2 taking legal action against that Care A2 Plus outfit

A smart move which won't help Care A2's planned IPO.

BTW NZ's recent export stat's and T Mall sales are looking v good for ATM. Next update could be v interesting.

[Left Field]

FDA approval to sell A2 IF into USA.

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=6190276

Another brick in the wall and also good to see ATM taking a cautious approach.

SP up around 6% on the news. Naaaice.

[winner (n)]

Cool eh Leftie

Good pathway for greater success in the US

You'd hope that hey would get a more ambitious with their $2 billion sales target ---- like in FY2024 and draw itout to FY2026

[Left Field]

Cool eh Leftie

Good pathway for greater success in the US

You'd hope that hey would get a more ambitious with their $2 billion sales target ---- like in FY2024 and draw itout to FY2026

Very Cool.

Reckon they will use MVM to supply IF to the US as their margins will be better. MVM still a work in progress and much work to do to get their labs and quality control into place.

However in the longer term 2024 and beyond it will be great for ATM to be diversified into 2 HUGE markets, China and USA.

Crikey by then USA may well have joined the ITP PP free trade thingy to further help ATM's margins!

[KW]

Cool eh Leftie

Good pathway for greater success in the US

You'd hope that hey would get a more ambitious with their $2 billion sales target ---- like in FY2024 and draw itout to FY2026

They still need to secure a distribution agreement with the IF retailers.  Hopefully the ones they work with for fresh milk will also be happy to give them shelf space.  You can also factor in a lot of money for marketing expenses to build up the brand - that doesnt come cheap, which is why BUBs raised $60M.  

Danone also got the FDA licence for Aptamil.  

This is probably to replace the Care A2 product which never got shipped.  

[Left Field]

From Wordplayer on HC

"Contrary to what a lot of people seem to expect, the US market will be tough and low margins. I think it may prove damaging to some of the smaller competitors who got in early and threw all the stock they could produce at it.

With some existing brand recognition, distribution networks, decent supply, and cash reserves, I think A2M is better positioned then most to capitalise in the long run though."

[winner (n)]

From Wordplayer - "With some existing brand recognition, distribution networks, decent supply, and cash reserves, I think A2M is better positioned then most to capitalise in the long run though."

He's good with words that Wordplayer

Spot on though ....esp the cash reserves bit

[Hectorplains]

From Wordplayer - "With some existing brand recognition, distribution networks, decent supply, and cash reserves, I think A2M is better positioned then most to capitalise in the long run though."

He's good with words that Wordplayer

Spot on though ....esp the cash reserves bit

The other point made on HC is the value of this deal to Synlait, who currently are using their excess capacity to churn out low margin milk powder. 

[Left Field]

Press article on ATM and FDA approval to supply the USA market.

http://www.foodanddrinkbusiness.com.au/news/a2-milk-company-gets-us-go-ahead

I like this part (and didn't fully appreciate SML had so much short term capacity.)

"A2 Milk said products for the US will need to be manufactured as there is not enough i its current inventory. The company had told the FDA that if approval was granted by 30 September, it would have capacity through Synlait Milk to manufacture nine million cans of a2 Platinum by 30 June 2023."

Long term gets even more interesting when Mataura Valley comes on on stream.

[Left Field]

Nice to see ATM beginning it's share buy back today at around $6.20

Seems ATM have faith in their future.

[Waltzing]

should not this stock come with a health warning?

dairy price softness forecast by aussi traders on Asia CNBC and apparently the KIWI is expensive...

they think the NZ economy is headed for recession..?

[Left Field]

should not this stock come with a health warning?

Well some posters here (and over there) were forecasting a low SP of $NZ 2:00 to $3:00 so they might agree with you Waltzing.

However....

ATM's SP is up over 40% up on its 12 month lows..... and

In the competitive China IF market A2 is currently ranked second best performing brand in the annual T-Mall 11/11 sales promotion.

Then the huge USA market is beckoning..... as is the target of annual sales of $2 Billion.

The 18 Nov ASM update is going to be interesting.

[Waltzing]

Well for the betterment of  NZX lets hope so becuase the last govt has done nothing for the market and the country badlt needs more listed companies.

maybe we could privatise the government including the buidling..

like in Margin Call...

"Sell the lot, today....."