NZX50 reaction to election results

[Basil]

Another term by a Labour led coalition, especially accompanied by an ever-emboldened Māori party and its separatist divisive policies would be incredibly bad for economic growth in my opinion which would ultimately be reflected in a lot of companies share prices.  In Labour's second term we have seen the NZX50 retreat from ~ 13,800 at the start of 2021 to 11,800 now, a decline of 14.5%, (25% in real inflation adjusted terms), and that's the gross index inclusive of all dividends in the last two and a half years!  Could that or even worse happen again if they get a third term, yes, I think there's the very real prospect of that.

Reflecting back on the IPO's I can remember in recent years, (I am sure there are some I have overlooked), putting money into any IPO seems like an almost certain recipe to lose money. In no particular order, MFB has digested ~ 90% of investors capital, the wheels have come off 2 Cheap cars which with hindsight was priced at Rolly Royce level's and has destroyed ~ 80% of investors' funds, MPG has shattered more than 90% of investors capital, Winton property has tanked by more than half, Evolve destroyed somewhere around 90% of its value, Harmoney has been any anything but a harmonious experience for investors and anyone originally investing is now down over 90% after they delisted from the NZX in late 2022  and even OCA despite extensive promotion by some people as a growth stock is trading below its IPO price and has substantially underperformed the NZX50 index over the last 6 years, however a notably better performance than any of the other flea ridden mutts.  Forgive me if my memory fails me a bit, but have there been any IPO success stories at all in recent years? 

Basically, the rule of thumb going forward with all future NZX IPO listings, in my opinion, is ignore all the listing B.S., let the shares find their real value and then have a look at their track record after a few years and then reassess the situation. 

[Onemootpoint]

That is the reason why Interactive Brokers, one of the biggest non-wall st bank broking platforms in the world offers access to 76 global exchanges, and the NZX is not one of them.  Even the biggest retail platform in Australia (Commonwealth Securities) does not offer access to NZX stocks, and it owns ASB!  If you block investors from trading on an exchange, how on earth do you expect to improve liquidity and support for companies who want to list on it?  Zero wonder as to why most of them end up decamping to the ASX if they want to grow.   

Good post. Thus is quite telling.

[Basil]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521912/investors-slumber-as-stocks-move-with-no-apparent-rhyme-nor-reason.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+Jun+2023

Markets stuck in a directionless malaise until the election ?
Feels that way to me.

[Buzz]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521912/investors-slumber-as-stocks-move-with-no-apparent-rhyme-nor-reason.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+Jun+2023

Markets stuck in a directionless malaise until the election ?
Feels that way to me.

I don't know whether it's true and frankly I don't care much either.

Short term focus around politics and government does move markets, but it doesn't (much) affect fundamental value or longer term investor opportunity.

All I see is ... finally ... after many years, we have a market return to (perception of) 'value' and regardless of what we individually decide value is, there is under-valued to be taken advantage of. Some will under-value by the market and that's even better if we see value others don't, for investors.

Opportunity for investing comes in many disguises, the least frequent of those however is the one when the market considers everything is screwed.

It's been a long time coming. Those who can see and respond to it, well, they'll be ones laughing in the not too distant future.

Choose wisely.

[Waltzing]

NZ market supported by earning in other currencies...

Likely that Chippie wont want to scare the horses and he will be busy with the other parties...trying to placate them while stopping capital flight.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stock-takes-why-are-international-markets-performing-so-much-better-than-new-zealand-australia/3XFPAJ6SMRARRDENLY53DTNHCE/

The imbalanced economy...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/300904584/current-account-deficits-the-most-accurate-representation-of-the-countrys-imbalanced-economy

mission impossible as destroying capital is the intent of the greens and some other parties to weaken the colonial establishment...

Destroy democracy and implement central control... so much easier when you can rule by decree.

[Basil]

I see things very differently to you Buzz as articulated in the first paragraph of post #30 above.
Another 3 years of divisiveness and ideological programs and to hell with the economic ramifications would be a genuine headwind for the economy and for most companies in N.Z.  Sure, there is always value to be found but it becomes harder work with economic headwinds.
I guess it depends on your definition of the not-too-distant future.  I foresee pretty modest prospects for the NZX50 to increase much in 2023.
That said I am generally investing on a "look through the current economic malaise to the other side" basis, but it would be nice if we had central government policies that promote economic growth when we get there rather than reverse racism, divisiveness and ideological nonsense currently being rammed down our throats.

P.S. I'm certainly not the only one taking a very sober view of economic prospects for the rest of 2023, at least, and who thinks the election outcome is very important.  https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/122603/david-hargreaves-casts-his-mind-forward-over-next-six-months-and-outlines

[snapiti]

I see things very differently to you Buzz as articulated in the first paragraph of post #30 above.
Another 3 years of divisiveness and ideological programs and to hell with the economic ramifications would be a genuine headwind for the economy and for most companies in N.Z.  Sure, there is always value to be found but it becomes harder work with economic headwinds.
I guess it depends on your definition of the not-too-distant future.  I foresee pretty modest prospects for the NZX50 to increase much in 2023.
That said I am generally investing on a "look through the current economic malaise to the other side" basis, but it would be nice if we had central government policies that promote economic growth when we get there rather than reverse racism, divisiveness and ideological nonsense currently being rammed down our throats.

P.S. I'm certainly not the only one taking a very sober view of economic prospects for the rest of 2023, at least, and who thinks the election outcome is very important.  https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/122603/david-hargreaves-casts-his-mind-forward-over-next-six-months-and-outlines

Currently one can regurgitate  much of the ideology being rammed down one throat however the up coming election could well see small party radical ideologies coming to being.....that will mean what they are pushing down your throat you have to digest and it comes out as number 2's.
Normally I would agree with you about seeing through economic malaise however the political climate in NZ (coming election going to be close) means I for one are happy to be on the sidelines for now

[Basil]

Another term by a Labour led coalition, especially accompanied by an ever-emboldened Māori party and its separatist divisive policies would be incredibly bad for economic growth in my opinion which would ultimately be reflected in a lot of companies share prices.  In Labour's second term we have seen the NZX50 retreat from ~ 13,800 at the start of 2021 to 11,800 now, a decline of 14.5%, (25% in real inflation adjusted terms), and that's the gross index inclusive of all dividends in the last two and a half years!  Could that or even worse happen again if they get a third term, yes, I think there's the very real prospect of that.

Reflecting back on the IPO's I can remember in recent years, (I am sure there are some I have overlooked), putting money into any IPO seems like an almost certain recipe to lose money. In no particular order, MFB has digested ~ 90% of investors capital, the wheels have come off 2 Cheap cars which with hindsight was priced at Rolly Royce level's and has destroyed ~ 80% of investors' funds, MPG has shattered more than 90% of investors capital, Winton property has tanked by more than half, Evolve destroyed somewhere around 90% of its value, Harmoney has been any anything but a harmonious experience for investors and anyone originally investing is now down over 90% after they delisted from the NZX in late 2022  and even OCA despite extensive promotion by some people as a growth stock is trading below its IPO price and has substantially underperformed the NZX50 index over the last 6 years, however a notably better performance than any of the other flea ridden mutts.  Forgive me if my memory fails me a bit, but have there been any IPO success stories at all in recent years? 

Basically, the rule of thumb going forward with all future NZX IPO listings, in my opinion, is ignore all the listing B.S., let the shares find their real value and then have a look at their track record after a few years and then reassess the situation. 

Add RAD to that list of IPO's where investors have been severely punished.

[Waltzing]

and what is the cash position of SHAZ platform.... are they making money or are they going to have to lay off staff ...

no wonder the com props like GMT are still sky high in value as people retrench into bricks and steel...in the north island.

its a No growth government for sure and they cant wait to raise tax rates on companies?

Tax Trusts with homes in them?

Only Chippie can hold the tide back...

[Buzz]

Add RAD to that list of IPO's where investors have been severely punished.

RAD was never an 'investment', imo. Poor capital management is just another signal. Now they're in danger of failing the 'going concern' audit requirement, a distressed seller trying to meet their banker's edict to pay back their debt, and soon.