DUR Duratec

[lorraina]

Not a holder however I too looked for Red Flags.Did not see any, and results and performance looked good to me.

[Ferg]

Not a holder however I too looked for Red Flags.Did not see any, and results and performance looked good to me.

Lesson learned from HCL however....not catching that falling knife if a big boy is selling.

[KW]

Sometimes its not obvious, but somewhere along the line we will find out what the market is pricing in.  PME is currently doing the same thing.  

The point is to not be wedded to a stock, as its not unusual for big performers to run out of steam and just fizzle out.  Since NZ has no capital gains tax, there is no impediment to being sensible and selling out so you can move your capital to a stock that is at the beginning of its move rather than its end.  

Use FA to pick stocks, and TA to decide when to buy and sell them.  Best of both worlds.

[Whome]

Nice graph KW, clearly showing those 3 exit signals. To add to that, at the 1st exit signal the sp fell below 12MA (used in MACD) but the sp can easily recover from that point (been caught before on that) except in the case of DUR, the RSI at that time also fell dramatically from 70 to around 40. For DUR I think the RSI is a lead indicator as the company operates in a conservative infrastructure environment and revenues are dependent on contracts which come in large bites won or lost, so the big boys know they have to move quickly.

The other signal was a large sell volume at the Earnings announcement which saw me sell shortly after.

PE had risen to around 20 so I think sp just got ahead of itself. PE is now back to a healthy 12.85 today. Earnings are still forecast for a modest increase in 2Y24. Current mkt cap is $292 mil on Revenue of $491 mil. This remains a good company and a good stable mate for Acrow. I shall watch for a re-entry point going into 2Y24.