Hypothetical question - mid-year recession

[entrep]

If you believed that a recession is coming to New Zealand mid-year, which several of the following stocks would be worst hit?

CEN
FBU
KMD
KPG
SKC
SKT
SPK
STU

[BlackPeter]

If you believed that a recession is coming to New Zealand mid-year, which several of the following stocks would be worst hit?

CEN
FBU
KMD
KPG
SKC
SKT
SPK
STU

Easier to answer with the benefit of hindsight (i.e. not now) ... but I guess the answer is as always - it depends.

However - companies providing essentials typically do better in a crisis than companies supplying nice to have stuff. I would definitely take SPK and CEN from the list above, which leaves:

FBU
KMD
KPG
SKC
SKT
STU

One of the unknowns is - are people fleeing NZ (in this case the building industry will have problems as well) or will they flee to NZ (in this case building industry will be ok).

I probably would take FBU, STU and KPG (real estate) of the list as well ... which leaves

KMD,
SKT and
SKC

Take your pick, whether the tourists which still might come prefer to buy proper outdoor gear or to gamble their money away and you have your answer (but SKT).

In my view SKT's problems are structural ... they well might get the price anyway ... with or without crisis.