SP being hammered so far today on top of today's downgrade.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395951
"Preliminary management financial results for the half year ending 30 June 2022 indicate that NPAT for the period will be between $14 million and $16 million (half year 2021 NPAT was $34.5m)."
GLH.
Shows what inflation can do to profits
Sales up 8.4% ....pretty good in circumstances
Costs/Expenses up 10% .... they say inflation etc
Means NPAT down 30% (this years profit margin 2.6% v 4.2% v pcp
Be interesting how far RBD share price will fall
Been drifting down since it reached $16 a year ago --- down 37%
I was quite sad a few month ago when I sold the shares I had had for 13 years - but sub $1 to $14 was a pretty good trade .....maybe if it goes back to $7 like it did in that panic selling when covid hit I might be back
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Thanks for sharing Winner. Looks like you read the TA signals as RBD entered into 'death cross' territory round the $14.00 mark? Well done.
Lot's of headwinds still facing RBD's margins and revenue growth IMO.
Hi winner are you looking to get back in to rbd & do you think its going lower still ,or possibly awaiting the half year results to make any decisions.
They do seem to find 9 $ as a big resistance point
Quote from: Left Field on Jul 27, 2022, 01:41 PMThanks for sharing Winner. Looks like you read the TA signals as RBD entered into 'death cross' territory round the $14.00 mark? Well done.
Lot's of headwinds still facing RBD's margins and revenue growth IMO.
forgive my ignorance as I am only learning, but what signals are you referring to? if a death cross is a
"technical indicator which occurs when a security's short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses from above to below a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day)."
then can I ask what moving averages settings were you using that indicated RBD moving into death cross territory around the $14 mark?
that is if the signals that you were referring to were in regard to moving averages.
thanks in advance
Quote from: Auto Rower on Aug 21, 2022, 09:49 AMHi winner are you looking to get back in to rbd & do you think its going lower still ,or possibly awaiting the half year results to make any decisions.
They do seem to find 9 $ as a big resistance point
RBD for most of the 13 years I held was essentially a hold collecting bigger and bigger dividends and watching the share price go up most years. Like let winners run.
Whenever I thought of buying more I'd ask myself if you didn't hold would you buy today .....answer was no ...they are not cheap. That's how I feel even now ....not an attractive buy. Fundamentally over priced imo with headwinds and a share price going down (and that's why I sold a few months ago)
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 21, 2022, 07:20 PMRBD for most of the 13 years I held was essentially a hold collecting bigger and bigger dividends and watching the share price go up most years. Like let winners run.
Whenever I thought of buying more I'd ask myself if you didn't hold would you buy today .....answer was no ...they are not cheap. That's how I feel even now ....not an attractive buy. Fundamentally over priced imo with headwinds and a share price going down (and that's why I sold a few months ago)
I havent fully understood RBD's appeal for a few years now.
The business has gone through a number of re ratings - I dont have it to hand, but its consensus forward EV/EBITDA has periodically held steady for years and been rerated up in about 4 or 5 episodes since the early 2000s. It went something like 3.5x in early 2000s, 4.5x 09 to 2012, 7x 12 to 16, 9.5x up to its partial buyout in 2019 for 13x ebitda. People forget what a lowly position it once held - when I was working professionally we were once approached in ~2005 by an asian PE firm re a joint buyout. It was trading in ~3-4x ebitda and got no where (never real And avian flu issues du jour). Today at ~ 8x but had been much, much higher without yield to show for it. It did serve as a platform to consolidate sub franchises globally which they have executed magnificently on. KFC has been the growth engine of the business, a beast in NZ, but now tapped out in NZ and at the end of a day beholden to master franchisers who own the IP., command huge fees, and impose restrictive covenants. None the less would have more coins in the piggy bank had I invested many hears ago rather than critique from the sidelines. It is a bit of a rarity internationally, very few franchisee companies have achieved the success RBD had, but the fins are hard and yield never been great.
Anecdotally, I find KFC to be very expensive now. The last time I bought a meal there it cost me over $20 (just for me), and I havent been back since. We are being ripped off in NZ as well, a burger meal that costs over $16 here in NZ costs $11 in Australia.
Quote from: KW on Aug 22, 2022, 10:55 AMAnecdotally, I find KFC to be very expensive now. The last time I bought a meal there it cost me over $20 (just for me), and I havent been back since. We are being ripped off in NZ as well, a burger meal that costs over $16 here in NZ costs $11 in Australia.
Funny, how price and quality of the share correlates with the product, isn't it?
That's a good ethos I do that also winner ,most of the time ! .
Certainly broke that 9 bucks yesterday I must of give it the kiss of sp death, wish I could do that on a regular basis .
On the cost of the chicken boxes kw I had a look as I am not a regular in fact the opposite 3 piece box in aus 11.95 = nz 13 .32 in The nz that same box is 14.39 so a bit more of a cost for sure but the family feast 10 pieces is the same price making it cheaper in the N Z due to the exchange rate .
Don't really want to dwell on looking at k f c meals this time in the morning or any other time if truth be known but suffice to say they are not going out of fashion here in the N Z that is as yet.
wow, I hadn't looked at this one for a long time and now it looks appealing on the surface...it isn't like they aren't perpetually busy (from direct observation), and the share price is massively down.
Dammit, now I'm hungry for the dirty bird
Quote from: blackie on Aug 21, 2022, 05:45 PMforgive my ignorance as I am only learning, but what signals are you referring to? if a death cross is a
"technical indicator which occurs when a security's short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses from above to below a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day)."
then can I ask what moving averages settings were you using that indicated RBD moving into death cross territory around the $14 mark?
that is if the signals that you were referring to were in regard to moving averages.
thanks in advance
Apologies Blakie..... I only just read/noticed your past query.
FWIW - The crossing of the 30 day MA and the 90 day MA is my preferred TA indicator for the NZX for both 'Death Cross' (downside) and 'Golden Cross' (upside.) JMHO.
Since my interest in RBD had waned I've not been keeping a close on it for the last few months
I have noticed the consistent downtrend in the share price from about 16 bucks to 8 bucks ...ouch
But I hadn't noticed that its still trading on a PE of about 30 forecast F23 earnings
That is very high ....and I wonder if a 5% dividend yield is enough to stop the share price falling further
Might need to keep a closer eye on this
Quote from: Left Field on Sep 05, 2022, 12:14 PMApologies Blakie..... I only just read/noticed your past query.
FWIW - The crossing of the 30 day MA and the 90 day MA is my preferred TA indicator for the NZX for both 'Death Cross' (downside) and 'Golden Cross' (upside.) JMHO.
thanks for that
Interesting to compare 2016 RBD to 2022 RBD. Profit up by ~$24m (although heading down now), however increase in share capital of ~$125m and an extra ~$240m of debt.
So an additional ~$360m of capital invested has created ~$24m extra profit. Doesn't seem a very good ROIC or whatever the finance guys use.
Tangible book value now deeply negative versus then due to all the acquisitions, and less capacity to make big acquisitions to carry on the growth narrative - maybe why the big cheeses jumped ship.
Margins also abit lower which should be a concern, given how expensive fast food has become.
Should be worth something - not sure what is it. Never know, could get a minority buyout or some such thing.
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I am sure the share is worth "something" ... as long as they don't make public how many of their customers they kill with their unhealthy food.
I suspect however as well that this "something" is below the current SP.
Here are a couple of hints:
10 times 2022 forecast EPS would be $2.76 per share.
Grahams formula returns $7.51 per share
(but is normally ways too optimistic, particularly for a fat & salty food merchant)
Shareclarity offers a DCF "value" of $7.36 per share.
If I would be interested in trading fatty food, I probably would review an entry decision below $5 ...
Well its heading there Peter towards Grahams formula a really nice downtrend continuing, $ 7.81 today for a wee while we would all be queued up anywhere near 5 $
Australian CKF results not boding well for RBD. Taco Bell underperforming.
"In HY23, Collins Foods opened four new drive-thru [Taco Bell] restaurants (two in Melbourne and two in Perth), bringing total
restaurant numbers to 13 in Queensland, eight in Victoria and three in Western Australia. To ensure the long-term
strength of the brand and to generate the required return on investment, new restaurant builds beyond the
five-six sites already committed to have been paused. In addition, a non-cash impairment of $11.9 million, after
tax, was incurred in relation to eight underperforming restaurants.
"We are refining every element of the business, from marketing and media spend to portioning and product
quality, to ensure we meet and exceed customer expectations. We have paused new restaurant builds, other
than the five-six already committed, to enable us to work with Yum! to regain traction on sales before further
recommencing the rollout and scaling the brand."
I had a few hours to spare yesterday so as part of my education visited the taco bell by the airport at chch .
I must say it was disappointing ,food was not good ,service poor & the staff outnumbered the customers three to one ! crikey .
I know collins foods in Aus is being dragged down by taco belle & I reckon r b d will be the same not all fast foods are a gold mine like maccas & kfc
Quote from: Auto Rower on Dec 12, 2022, 12:35 PMI had a few hours to spare yesterday so as part of my education visited the taco bell by the airport at chch .
I must say it was disappointing ,food was not good ,service poor & the staff outnumbered the customers three to one ! crikey .
I know collins foods in Aus is being dragged down by taco belle & I reckon r b d will be the same not all fast foods are a gold mine like maccas & kfc
I think the correct term is thank you for taking one for the team!
How's Carls going these days ...or have they quit them
Carls still doing reasonable as an up market burger establishment better thought of than burger fuel & pizza hut well established .
I must add as well I took one for the team in L A with Tacos and it was a much better experience not something I would be doing regular but as an experience /research exercise it passed as junk food that would appeal in the right circumstances and to connoisseur's of such .
I do believe they had to alter the menus slightly and the sizes to get tacos in to n z this in my opinion will be its downfall as a poor imitation of the real deal.
As far as junk food goes the end user will have the final say,& it will take a lot to move them off the staples kfc & maccas
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 05, 2022, 12:56 PMSince my interest in RBD had waned I've not been keeping a close on it for the last few months
I have noticed the consistent downtrend in the share price from about 16 bucks to 8 bucks ...ouch
But I hadn't noticed that its still trading on a PE of about 30 forecast F23 earnings
That is very high ....and I wonder if a 5% dividend yield is enough to stop the share price falling further
Might need to keep a closer eye on this
Now trading under $6. "Are we there yet"?
6/8x30 ~ still on a P/E of around 20. Maybe we aren't there yet.
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 28, 2022, 12:39 PMNow trading under $6. "Are we there yet"?
6/8x30 ~ still on a P/E of around 20. Maybe we aren't there yet.
Looking to go cheaper based on this update.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415852
Latest 1H FY23 update from RBD..... (no worries.......smaller helpings ("re-engineering") and more digital spam ("improved customer access,") will get it sorted.)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417156
"Continued investment into our digital platforms is also planned to provide improved customer access and attract new customers, alongside menu re-engineering and an enhanced marketing and promotions programmes."
Trading well under $5.
"Are we there yet?".
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBD.NZ?p=RBD.NZ&.tsrc=fin-srch
Disclosure: not / never held; morbidly curious.
With all their cost issues new competition is coming
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/south-korean-chain-nene-chicken-to-open-first-new-zealand-store-next-month/HZ4SYIBTT5EGBFN6MQLQWUHV4Q/
Never held, but I find it an interesting gauge on the economy.
Anecdotally, Korean fried chicken is pretty gross, at least the ones I've tried. Outside too hard and inside too dry.
Are we there yet? Now trading under $4.
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBD.NZ/chart?p=RBD.NZ
Quote from: Ferg on Aug 29, 2023, 09:12 PMTrading well under $5.
"Are we there yet?".
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 19, 2023, 09:02 PMAre we there yet? Now trading under $4.
Obviously not. Now at $3.50. Last time it was at this price was 2014. I'm still not seeing a contrarian play here.....yet.
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 11, 2023, 12:25 AMObviously not. Now at $3.50. Last time it was at this price was 2014. I'm still not seeing a contrarian play here.....yet.
Agreed - they're carrying too much debt and still experiencing margin compression. No fun trying to catch a falling knife...especially one as greasy as this.
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 11, 2023, 12:25 AMObviously not. Now at $3.50. Last time it was at this price was 2014. I'm still not seeing a contrarian play here.....yet.
Not yet But nearly there .
I would be willing to say it will be double this in 18 months at 7 bucks for you Contarians
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 11, 2023, 12:25 AMObviously not. Now at $3.50. Last time it was at this price was 2014. I'm still not seeing a contrarian play here.....yet.
Contrarian play getting closer today at 3.30$
Quote from: Auto Rower on Nov 13, 2023, 07:46 PMContrarian play getting closer today at 3.30$
Care to share your rationale behind this?
Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 13, 2023, 08:33 PMCare to share your rationale behind this?
yes read post 30 in this thread
Crikey.....seems people are still dining out...... at first glance a good result in tough times.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437068
• Record Group store sales of $687.2 million
• Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $12.6 million
• Group store EBITDA was $94.6 million, an increase of 20.8% on 1H 2023
Auckland, 29 August 2024. Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited (RBD or the Group), has reported today its financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2024 (1H 2024).
RBD delivered record Group store sales of $687.2 million for 1H 2024, a 7.3% increase on the same period last year (1H 2023).
Group NPAT of $12.6* million represents a significant improvement on 1H 2023.
Group store EBITDA reached $94.6 million, a significant increase of $16.3 million or 20.8% on 1H 2023.
*Included in Group NPAT is a non-cash net impairment charge of $3.3 million relating to property, plant and equipment and intangible assets ($2.5 million after-tax).
Restaurant Brands' store numbers totalled 506, of which 378 are owned and 128 franchised. Four new stores were opened in 1H 2024, for a total of 13 net new stores from 1H 2023.
"We are proud to observe that our strategy is delivering good results", said RBD Chairman, José Parés. "Initiatives including cost control measures, operational efficiencies, and price programmes continue to deliver value for money for customers and to protect brand health, maintain customer loyalty, and staying competitive. They have also helped offset rising labour costs and consumer pressures. In terms of the regions where RBD operates, performance in New Zealand and Hawaii are particularly noteworthy as both regions showed significant improvements, with solid growth in 1H 2024".
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 19, 2023, 09:02 PMAre we there yet? Now trading under $4.
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBD.NZ/chart?p=RBD.NZ
Are we there yet ferg
Quote from: Auto Rower on Aug 05, 2025, 10:32 AMAre we there yet ferg
Hahahaha.....still not there yet for a contrarian play IMO. But are we there yet for the bottom for the share price? It is still over-priced for me.....no doubt history will make a a mockery of that statement in 3....2....
Quote from: Ferg on Aug 05, 2025, 01:17 PMHahahaha.....still not there yet for a contrarian play IMO. But are we there yet for the bottom for the share price? It is still over-priced for me.....no doubt history will make a a mockery of that statement in 3....2....
I think 3 bucks must be getting there, good full year results in February 25 if held up this year with another 20 cents plus dividend.
Another 12 months could go anywhere could make a mockery of any statement made now .
Quote from: Auto Rower on Aug 05, 2025, 02:29 PMI think 3 bucks must be getting there, good full year results in February 25 if held up this year with another 20 cents plus dividend.
Another 12 months could go anywhere could make a mockery of any statement made now .
Take it or leave it takeover offer for the takeaway offerer - in at $5.05.
I always wanted to have shares in RBD but never quite got around to buying any until 10 weeks ago and finally bought in after 27 years of sharetrading. I don't really want to sell because have bought for the long term in my new 2025 portfolio. :'( ps A funny thing happened. Had an order in to sell a small portion of 5000 from 4 weeks ago but had forgotten about until receiving an email a few days ago saying my order will expire on 29/9/25 at 12am. What can I say.... Amen
Finally some (partial) relief for long suffering shareholders.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/459782
It seems like a generous offer to me.
Quote from: Ferg on Sep 30, 2025, 10:55 AMFinally some (partial) relief for long suffering shareholders.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/459782
It seems like a generous offer to me.
Yup and given ACC (with just under 5%) have accepted, giving them 80%. It looks like another company exiting the NZX.
Yes I am going to take it ,as per usual being greedy and waiting for it to go below 2.85 to load up .yet again missed out loading up fully due to minor percentage points.
we are there now ferg.
QuoteYes I am going to take it ,as per usual being greedy and waiting for it to go below 2.85 to load up .yet again missed out loading up fully due to minor percentage points.
You anglo pacific poms are real pushovers eh? Zhat's vhy you still haven't been able to vin ze Great Var, after 111 years of trying! Vhy don't you vait and zee vhat ze independent report zays about ze offer?
RB
Ya voll.
At least I can stop gorging myself on bargain buckets now
Well I just got my offer documents today so the offer is on the table. Wonder how long RBD will take to publish its position, the longer it takes the more acceptance forms will be returned IMHO.
I feel well & truly shafted, other opinions I have on this are best not posted on a public forum.
This was certainly "buy high sell low"
I wonder if we will be hearing of record profits here the second it goes private....
SOLD & money in the bank.
A few lessons were learnt from this poor investment, I will never make these mistakes again.
Totally agree every time there is something to take in ,especially if you have to pay those lessons engrain themselves .
QuoteSOLD & money in the bank.
A few lessons were learnt from this poor investment, I will never make these mistakes again.
Vhy did you zell before ze independent report came out?
You did not realize zhat eef ze independent report comes out and ze vair value range is higher zhan $5.05, zhen you can apply vor a binding independent review and likely get more money vor your shares? (Assuming ze 90% threshhold is reached of course.)
RB
Independent directors recommend accepting the $5.05 offer.
Wise decision in my view.
QuoteIndependent directors recommend accepting the $5.05 offer.
Wise decision in my view.
Vhy do you theenk accepting an offer vhich is below ze vair valuation range of $5.24 -> $$6.20 is 'vise'? I vould zay eet eez 'voolish'.
Are you even a zhareholder?
RB
Quote from: Red Baron on Oct 28, 2025, 10:47 AMVhy do you theenk accepting an offer vhich is below ze vair valuation range of $5.24 -> $$6.20 is 'vise'? I vould zay eet eez 'voolish'.
Are you even a zhareholder?
RB
No, definitely not - I didn't even like it below $3 due to the horrific fundamentals, so I think Shareholders are getting an absolute gift from heaven with the takeover offer.
I think the macro environment going forward is going to be a continuation of the trend of middle and lower income households facing severe cost pressures, that will make it quite difficult for meaningful growth here. I don't imagine top 10% income households eat that much KFC, not to mention consumers who can afford it becoming increasingly health conscious. Doesn't fit well with the flagship asset (exlusive KFC rights in NZ) being intrinsically unhealthy food.
Quote from: Plata on Oct 28, 2025, 07:19 PMI think the macro environment going forward is going to be a continuation of the trend of middle and lower income households facing severe cost pressures, that will make it quite difficult for meaningful growth here. I don't imagine top 10% income households eat that much KFC, not to mention consumers who can afford it becoming increasingly health conscious. Doesn't fit well with the flagship asset (exlusive KFC rights in NZ) being intrinsically unhealthy food.
I can see your righteous thoughts & agree In a perfect world we would all eat super healthy but i know a very large amount of people eat fast food especially k f c very regularly & see it in this era as a staple believe it or not also that apart it is a reasonably good offer in this time period of a bear market ,but also when the bull returns the k f c will flow once again along with the sp that's the market good & bad
Quote from: Plata on Oct 28, 2025, 07:19 PMI think the macro environment going forward is going to be a continuation of the trend of middle and lower income households facing severe cost pressures, that will make it quite difficult for meaningful growth here. I don't imagine top 10% income households eat that much KFC, not to mention consumers who can afford it becoming increasingly health conscious. Doesn't fit well with the flagship asset (exlusive KFC rights in NZ) being intrinsically unhealthy food.
I think KFC & Maccas have one thing that seemingly not many others have bothered to take advantage of as a major factor in their marketshare dominance in NZ: The drive Thru.
Wendy's has some but more Auckland only for the most part. Burger King was the other with a large amount of drive thrus, but that entity is running on empty.
But now starting to see some new entrants embrace drive thru: Popeyes chicken especially looking to eat up some KFC marketshare.
The sell rate has slowed to a crawl. The last 4 days shows about 1M shares acquired but not yet paid for.
Still a wee way to go & not a done deal yet! Will be interesting to see the reaction to the RBD recommendation over the next few days. I have not heard much support for the "independent directors" recommendation.
Another couple of SSH notifications in last 2 days, the last one reporting only a 0.157% change to holdings. Seems like reporting any good news is the preferred strategy even though not required.
looks like just a matter of time now before 90% holding is achieved & the Red Baron can upgrade his Fokker Dr.I triplane.
Tim Nice but Dim wrote
"looks like just a matter of time now before 90% holding is achieved & the Red Baron can upgrade his Fokker Dr.I triplane."
My triplane vlies under ze radar of ze modern defence zystems, deed you know zhat?. But I keep eet een good nick. Zo no upgrade required. But ze German border authorities have been alerted. Zhey know of my threat to take over Germany. Zhey have a zniper ztationed at ze Alsace border vready to 'pick me off' at ze zound aind zight of a red Vokker triplane crossing ze border.
But guess vhat? Ze triplane story eez all a diversion. Eenstaed I eentend to mount my attack via mobility zcooter! But ze attack vill not be in ze vay zhey expect. Zecond of May 2027. Mark eet in your diary. I vill be 135 on zhat day. I vill cross ze border on my mobility zcooter vith a case of vine, vrom my Alsace vineyard, to zelebrate. I vill go ztraight to parliament and get all ze politicians drunk. I vill zpend all my RBD proceeds on a party, bucket loads of KFC vor all! Zhen I vill produce my birthday card vor all politicians to zign...BUT
Here eez ze clever beet, It will look like a card. Actually it vill be a legal document ceding total control of ze country of Germany to me, and my dear Kaiserette vife! Ha ha ha. Ze viendish zimplicity of my plot, effectively a bloodless coup!
But as zhey say, zometimes zimple eez best!
RB
.
RB, nice reply, 10/10 as I expected.
Quote from: Tim nice but dim on Oct 31, 2025, 05:42 PMAnother couple of SSH notifications in last 2 days, the last one reporting only a 0.157% change to holdings. Seems like reporting any good news is the preferred strategy even though not required.
Hey Tim, nice post, but your image is a bit dim.....lol
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