StockTalk

Nice update..... cash burn halted.... cash pile growing.

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to release an update for Q1 of FY23 to 30 June 2022 (all figures in NZD). IKE will host a webinar Friday 22 July 2022 at 9am AEST / 11am NZT to discuss this performance. Please register using the link in the announcement.

Highlights for the quarter:
� Revenue in Q1 FY23 of ~$6.8m (+162% vs pcp). Within this, recurring Subscription and reoccurring Transaction revenue was ~$5.7.m (+167% vs pcp).
� Gross margin in Q1 FY23 of ~$3.9m (+116% vs pcp) representing a Q1 FY23 gross margin percentage of ~57%.
� Signed contracts in Q1 FY23 of ~$8m (+31% vs pcp). The signed contract backlog has continued to grow and it is estimated that $13-15m of this backlog will be delivered and recognized as revenue in the FY23 period.
� Cash and receivables as at 30 June 2022 was ~$27.7m, comprised of $23.3m cash and $4.4m receivables, with no debt. This position is just ~$1.2m lower than six months prior (at 31 December 2021) evidencing the operating leverage in the business.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395672

Go Ike!!

A lot to like.
Doing what they said they would do.

May as well post this over here as well

ANZ cloud companies median valuation is 3.3 times last 12 months revenue.

25th percentile is 1.6 times and 75th percentile is 6.3 times

Drivers of what to apply are Gross Margin % and Revenue Growth - IKE about the middle of pack re Gross Margin % and above average growth. But IKE is a relativity small outfit and this tends to 'discount' the valuation a bit.

So one could say that on what the market values cloud companies these days IKE is worth say 5 to 6 times last 12 months revenues - say $105m to $126m or 66 cents to 80 cents a share

But then multiples have fallen significantly over the last year or so - get back to the glory days maybe 2 bucks

Source my mates at Clare Capital

Thanks for posting Winner.

Key take away for me is that there is a lot more upside potential than downside. I reckon a 10x's is more realistic  than your 5 to 6 x's given the tailwinds for USA infrastructure investment. SP easily worth $2. Just a question of when!

As a long term investor that's a nice feeling.

An issue I grapple with is credibility for IKE.  This starts with the CV of the CEO, Glenn Milnes.  His profile page (https://ikegps.com/investors/#leadership) states:
"Before entering the business world, Glenn played professional cricket in New Zealand, England, and The Netherlands, representing New Zealand at various levels."

This gives the impression he represented NZ at a high level and it sounds like he played county cricket in England.  The website cricinfo has stats on all cricketers, including Glenn Milnes (https://www.espncricinfo.com/player/glenn-milnes-37722).

There is no mention of him representing NZ or any English counties there, or the Netherlands.  Their stats are comprehensive*.  However the wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Milnes) (probably set up by himself) says he represented NZ at junior levels.

*A mate of mine played 5 games for Hertfordshire in the 1980s.  An unremarkable career and unremarkable stats (no offence Peter) but his stats are on cricinfo.  Nothing for Glenn Milnes that I can find with 5-10 minutes searching online.  Maybe the stats are out there but I cannot find them.

I expect underlings to pad their CV, not CEOs.

Chart looking auspicious since the large volume share sale in early July ( Just saying..)

IKE at 210722.jpgIKE at 210722.jpg 

The tail winds that should propel IKE's SP in the next few years.

Details of the USA $42.5 billion Broadband, 5G and fibre infrastructure spend.

The federal government plans to pour more than $42.5 billion into broadband as part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed into law in 2021. The money, which is being distributed through the US Commerce Department's National Telecommunications and Information Administration directly to states, is supposed to ensure all Americans have access to affordable, consistent high-speed internet.

https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/why-fiber-is-the-key-to-getting-faster-5g-everywhere/

IKE 'well positioned'.

From an NBR article - what they heard in the investor call post announcement:

Asked on today's call whether the potential incidence of a recession in the US and elsewhere would adversely affect the business, Milnes said it would not. "We're fortunate because of the industry that we're in; it's very defensive to those types of recessionary headwinds.

"I think the exception to that may be how [fast] the communications companies ... keep building their next-generation networks if they're fearful of underlying consumer behaviour. But the customers we're supporting and the projects we're supporting are generally multi-year capex and opex projects that are very well committed-to already."

Milnes said the outlook looks "robust" and he expected FY23 to be "another significant period of growth", given the contract backlog will be delivered in the period.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 25, 2022, 09:28 AMFrom an NBR article - what they heard in the investor call post announcement:

Asked on today's call whether the potential incidence of a recession in the US and elsewhere would adversely affect the business, Milnes said it would not. "We're fortunate because of the industry that we're in; it's very defensive to those types of recessionary headwinds.

"I think the exception to that may be how [fast] the communications companies ... keep building their next-generation networks if they're fearful of underlying consumer behaviour. But the customers we're supporting and the projects we're supporting are generally multi-year capex and opex projects that are very well committed-to already."

Milnes said the outlook looks "robust" and he expected FY23 to be "another significant period of growth", given the contract backlog will be delivered in the period.

Thanks Winner, I listened to this presentation last week.... in addition to the above tailwinds, another takeaway that I liked was his stressing that IKE was very focussed on a robust balance sheet going forward (ie managing costs, building cash on hand, not debt.)

There's a lot to like about this company..... dare we say "inflection point." ;)

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 25, 2022, 09:28 AMAsked on today's call whether the potential incidence of a recession in the US and elsewhere would adversely affect the business, Milnes said it would not. "We're fortunate because of the industry that we're in; it's very defensive to those types of recessionary headwinds.

"I think the exception to that may be how [fast] the communications companies ... keep building their next-generation networks if they're fearful of underlying consumer behaviour. But the customers we're supporting and the projects we're supporting are generally multi-year capex and opex projects that are very well committed-to already."

Is anything really recession proof?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/at-t-tops-subscriber-estimates-lowers-2022-cash-flow-forecast
AT&T Inc. fell the most in 20 years after saying some customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills, which contributed to the wireless carrier cutting its forecast for free cash flow this year by $2 billion.

The emerging economic strain on consumers is adding to pressure the company had already been facing from deep discounts on new phones and higher spending on network equipment.

AT&T shares fell as much as 11%, their biggest slide since 2002. The rout erased the stock's gain for the year and sent phone company peers Verizon Communications Inc. and T-Mobile US Inc. lower.

KW - recession proof companies?

Remember this headline in the Herald about Plexure

'We're Covid 19 recession-proof' brags CEO

Hope IKE doesn't go the way of PLX

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 25, 2022, 01:51 PMKW - recession proof companies?

Remember this headline in the Herald about Plexure

'We're Covid 19 recession-proof' brags CEO

Hope IKE doesn't go the way of PLX

My motto  ;D
https://c.tenor.com/xIK0QA7WQiUAAAAd/house-doctor.gif

Quote from: KW on Jul 25, 2022, 01:17 PMIs anything really recession proof?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/at-t-tops-subscriber-estimates-lowers-2022-cash-flow-forecast
AT&T Inc. fell the most in 20 years after saying some customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills, which contributed to the wireless carrier cutting its forecast for free cash flow this year by $2 billion.

The emerging economic strain on consumers is adding to pressure the company had already been facing from deep discounts on new phones and higher spending on network equipment.

AT&T shares fell as much as 11%, their biggest slide since 2002. The rout erased the stock's gain for the year and sent phone company peers Verizon Communications Inc. and T-Mobile US Inc. lower.

I look at the telcos  being like us car owners,possibly reducing the mileage we do,while IKE are more like a road builder, such as Fulton Hogan.Price of petrol is not going to stop roading infractructure growth.
The big growth roadway in US for telcos is 5g.
The company helping the construction builders is IKE.
So as near as recession proof as you can get,helped by the fact IKE also service the power companies...

I don't recall him saying 'Recession proof' and that is certainly not  what the quote above says, ie "we are in an industry that is very defensive to recessionary headwinds." By that I take it he means: "We are in an industry where there is $US42 Billion in USA  infrastructure spending underway to mitigate climate change, improve fibre broadband services plus additional spending for 5G."

He did talk about forwards orders tho'.... and repeated what was said in the presentation, that IKE's forward contracts/commitments are close to their projected annual FY23 revenue already (with no account of any 'new' business.)

IKE and PLX no comparison IMHO.

IKE at 1808222.jpg I'm liking IKE's TA at the moment. Perhaps even an 'inflection point'.

FY 23 updates by CEO and MD in this presentation for the IKE AGM today

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/399694/380138.pdf

- Q1 FY23 Revenue up 162% on pcp
- 1H FY23 Revenue estimated to be up 162% on pcp
- No mention of projected FY 23 NPAT at this stage .....maybe in Q & A later today.

Early days but encouraging signs. Dare I say, some potential tail winds for IKE in Florida currently.
Go IKE.

I do not know whether the comprehensive loss reducing from -$8,465,000 to -$7,906,000 is reassuring or not.?

Comprehensive loss is ssooo yesterday. 8)

IKE did well to strengthen their Balance Sheet, Cash on Hand now $24 mill with no debt..... Revenue expected to double in FY23 to circa $30 mill.

Nice to have a company actually earning $USD these days. Onwards and upwards.

ps just listened to AGM Q & A's...... v positive (as you would expect) .....next update on customer wins and cash flow positivity etc etc due mid Oct. (today was last day of 1H FY23 reporting.)

I too listened in on the agm (solely for the q&a as the presentation slides had already been posted).
About a dozen qns from the floor, generally well answered by the ceo Glenn Milnes, but one qn that perhaps stood out, inter alia, was one enquiring re Ike's competition in nth america. Glenn mentioned 2 that had a similar MO but which had both been recently bought out under 'lucrative' terms. Interesting....

Naaaice - market seems to like the FY23 projections.....SP up a welcome 12% today,  ( despite NZX down approx 2%.)

TA looking favourable after last weeks FY23 update (Cash on Hand now $24 mill with no debt..... Revenue expected to double in FY23 to circa $30 mill.)

Market Screener estimates IKE currently trading at around 4x's FY23 revenue.

SP should climb above .90c this week, but then again the market is fickle these day's.

Another favourable update in mid October (alluded to in the CEO's Friday comments) could see the SP firm above $1.00.

A glimmer of hope in a turbulent market? Who knows?

Made it to 91c today. Up 23% in 4 weeks and up 44% from 12 mnth low.

I suspect more good news needed for the SP to hold above $1.00

Looking forward to the next update.

Latest update out for 1H FY23.... Got to love it.....Revenue up 170%on pcp.  Gross Margin up 128% at 53%. Go IKE!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400713

Highlights for the quarter:

� Positive cash flow was ~$2.2m in the Q2 FY23 period, and was ~$1.1m positive in the 1H FY23 period, evidencing the operating leverage in the business.
� Cash and receivables as at 30 September 2022 grew to ~$29.3m, comprised of $25.5m cash and $3.8m receivables, with no debt.
� Revenue 1H FY23 of ~$15.4m (+170% vs pcp).
� This outturn is ~$0.4m above the top end of the range forecast.
� Within this, recurring Subscription and reoccurring Transaction revenue was ~$13.6m (+183% vs pcp).
� Gross margin in 1H FY23 of ~$8.2m (+128% vs pcp) representing a 1H FY23 gross margin percentage of ~53%.


Should head north of $1.00 in the not too distant future... SP value at $1.50 according to some.

Pretty good eh leftie ...even cash flow positive

Thought I better say something to keep you sane ....talking to yourself not good practice

Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 18, 2022, 09:08 AMPretty good eh leftie ...even cash flow positive

Thought I better say something to keep you sane ....talking to yourself not good practice

LOL....yep "none so blind as those who cannot see..."

(Seems everyone else backed OCA  :o )

Makes up 14% of the portfolio, they have certainly grown revenue consistently over the last few year and with further clients hopefully the future growth continues!!

Over on the other channel Rawz says;

"Great update. One may even say its fantastic.

So they will do about $37.5m in revenue FY23 with upside of $39.5m. 134% UP on FY22 on the lower end. During a recession/ downturn thingy.

And that is while management are focused on costs and maintaining the 'fortress balance sheet'.

I would be happy to pay 5x revenue for this given the amazing growth.

FY23 Rev
$37.5m= Target SP $1.18
$39.5m= Target SP $1.24 "

Say no more,(and he didn't even mention the $USD tail winds!)  8)

Director holding shares, always a good sign. Wonder if they mucked up the disclosure or if the purchase was in Feb.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/400771/381453.pdf

1HFY23 out...... very impressive result.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/403197/384584.pdf

Nice to see IKE in Bell Potter's 2023 picks with a target SP of $A 1.21 (approx $NZ 1.30)


"IKE delivers operational efficiencies within Utilities and Communications companies and related Engineering firms by replacing legacy processes with hardware and software solutions.

In addition to posting 1H23 revenue growth of 169.8% vs. pcp to $15.4m, which was roughly equal to its full year FY22 revenue of $16m, IKE also delivered a maiden interim positive operating cash flow and statutory net profit.

The result was driven largely by increasing transaction volumes as use of its software and services grows
within IKE's enterprise clients. IKE's business activity is underpinned by the $310 billion fibre and 5G rollout in North America, which offers IKE the opportunity to embed its solutions within clients.

Buy (Speculative), Valuation $A1.21 "

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 23, 2022, 10:03 AMNice to see IKE in Bell Potter's 2023 picks with a target SP of $A 1.21 (approx $NZ 1.30)


"IKE delivers operational efficiencies within Utilities and Communications companies and related Engineering firms by replacing legacy processes with hardware and software solutions.

In addition to posting 1H23 revenue growth of 169.8% vs. pcp to $15.4m, which was roughly equal to its full year FY22 revenue of $16m, IKE also delivered a maiden interim positive operating cash flow and statutory net profit.

The result was driven largely by increasing transaction volumes as use of its software and services grows
within IKE's enterprise clients. IKE's business activity is underpinned by the $310 billion fibre and 5G rollout in North America, which offers IKE the opportunity to embed its solutions within clients.

Buy (Speculative), Valuation $A1.21 "

They put Synlait in their picks as well - that's good to see

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 23, 2022, 10:54 AMThey put Synlait in their picks as well - that's good to see

Well, yes - but it might show as well that they do have some internal quality problems  :o

As Biden touts his huge infrastructure spending (while Republicans meltdown) IKE is climbing nicely.

(sure on small volumes at a weird time of year...... but only a matter of time before IKE climbs above $1:00)

Go IKE!

For the purpose of full disclosure I have entered IKE, buying in yesterday at $0.92

I have cash burning a hole in my pocket and there is nothing  about NZ companies  that attracts me at the moment as I see our labour supply constrains lasting at least another 12 months.

I'm still after some speculative stocks and this fits the bill quite nicely. In its 6 months report revenue is up, net profit  up (rather than a loss), increase in expenses seems reasonable. Still lots of cash in the bank and receivables seems under control. Essentially debt free. And a potentially a strong pipeline of future revenue.

I have a two year window on this one. Currently set stop loss at 10%

Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 10, 2023, 08:47 AMFor the purpose of full disclosure I have entered IKE, buying in yesterday at $0.92

I have cash burning a hole in my pocket and there is nothing  about NZ companies  that attracts me at the moment as I see our labour supply constrains lasting at least another 12 months.

I'm still after some speculative stocks and this fits the bill quite nicely. In its 6 months report revenue is up, net profit  up (rather than a loss), increase in expenses seems reasonable. Still lots of cash in the bank and receivables seems under control. Essentially debt free. And a potentially a strong pipeline of future revenue.

I have a two year window on this one. Currently set stop loss at 10%

Great minds, Mr Moke.  I've been quietly acquiring a few.  I also like that their future is basically stateside. I can see that they will eventually shift their listing over there, if they're not bought out before then. 

Big crossing of 300,000 shares this afternoon at 92c bodes well for you Mini..... or was that you just topping up some more?

(biggest volume for some time)

Anyway welcome to the supporters club.... GLH.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 10, 2023, 03:18 PMBig crossing of 300,000 shares this afternoon at 92c bodes well for you Mini..... or was that you just topping up some more?

(biggest volume for some time)

Anyway welcome to the supporters club.... GLH.

I find it uncouth to disclose my actual purchase value. But someone is obviously keen.

Seems Minimoke isn't the only one to see potential in IKE

Here's what Rawz posted on the other channel.......

"Should get Q3 update in a couple of weeks....

From 2016 to 2021 revenue growth was 0%.. ...

Q1 F22 is when things really started to crank. The 5 year 0% growth charged to huge QRT on QRT growth:

FY22 Q1 revenue $2.6m
FY22 Q2 revenue $3.1m = 19% QRT on QRT growth
FY22 Q3 revenue $4.2m = 35% QRT on QRT growth
FY22 Q4 revenue $6.0m = 43% QRT on QRT growth
FY23 Q1 revenue $6.8m = 13% QRT on QRT growth. 162% PCP growth
FY23 Q2 revenue $8.6m = 26% QRT on QRT growth. 177% PCP growth

Awesome stuff. Q3 will alone produce more revenue than they used to do in the 5 years before (p.a.)
They are on track to do somewhere between $35m and $38m this year at the current run rate.

Market cap is $145m.
I think a 5x revenue multiple is not unreasonable given the huge growth rates and the fact that they are operating in a recession proof industry with a fortress balance sheet and huge market (see my post above).

Thus we get to a 31 March 2023 market cap valuation of $175m to $190m.  Or target SP of $1.10-$1.19

Todays SP is $0.91 so a 20-30% gain on the cards...."

Revenue guesstimate for the Quarter $11.7mil

Quote from: Forrestdun on Jan 20, 2023, 01:16 PMRevenue guesstimate for the Quarter $11.7mil

I would be very happy with that....... FWIW my guesstimates a tab more conservative... FY23 around $30 mill. FY 24 at $50 mill.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 20, 2023, 03:56 PMI would be very happy with that....... FWIW my guesstimates a tab more conservative... FY23 around $30 mill. FY 24 at $50 mill.

FWIW my estimate (modelled and not a vague prediction) is for $10.6m heading to $39.0m for full year

Pretty good I reckon .... even though guru analysts think full year sales won't be anywhere near $39m

Since I am new to IKE and still need t get my head around all the numbers  my back of a matchbox calculation comes up with FY23$36.5

$1 here we come?

Quote from: Forrestdun on Jan 26, 2023, 01:41 PM$1 here we come?

At $0.97 its a new 12 month high, so that is encouraging. We appear to have a confirmed uptrend since July last year so that's encouraging. There are some nice packets (30,000) being traded so that is encouraging. Last year they gave a Q3 performance update on 1 Feb. Hopefully they will do so again this year and that too wil be encouraging.

7 Feb. Market update. I'm looking forward to it.

Closed at 0.99 so close!!

Tomorrow is a great day to either buy a bargain or tap out on a high.

Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 02, 2023, 09:44 PMTomorrow is a great day to either buy a bargain or tap out on a high.

It is a recent high but not an all time.  The share price spent an extended period trading over a dollar (best part of year from Oct 2020 to Nov 2021.) No doubt that muscle memory will assist in the climb back up.

IKE update out.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406297

� YTD revenue of ~$23.3m (+134% vs pcp)
� Q3 FY23 revenue of ~$7.9m (+88% vs pcp)
� Q3 FY23 recurring subscription and reoccurring transaction revenue of ~$7.2m (+121% vs pcp).
� New contracts closed in Q3 FY23 of $7.3m
� YTD gross margin approximately of ~$12.3m (+98% vs pcp), with a YTD gross margin percentage of approximately 53%.
� Total cash and receivables as at 31 December 2022 of ~$23.5m, comprised of $20.6m cash and $3.0m receivables, with payables of $1.8m and no debt.

Market seems to like it... (up over $1.00 at time of writing)

I like it..... steady progress and leaving room for surprises (hopefully positive) in Q4.

GPS - have they stopped geting lost yet;  how long has this lot been lost due to atmospherics.

can we put it down to Coronal Mass Ejections on the Sun.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/nmp/st5/SCIENCE/cme.html#:~:text=Coronal%20mass%20ejections%20(CMEs)%20are,scientists%20call%20%22flux%20rope.%22

would rocket labs have been the better trade?



 

Not as good a result as I had expected. Looks like my back of a matchbox FY calculation of $36.5m needs to be revisited.

That's said, market seems to like it on very small volume

And overall I can't complain given I finally hold something that has me well in positive territory.

Minimoke - I will have more concerns if Q4 doesn't meet/exceed expectations. I like their 'no borrowings', reducing cash burn, and huge growth in 'transaction revenue' ..... long may it continue.

Onwards and upwards.

Closed today at $1.01. Those that paid $1.05 probably got a bit over excited.

Looks like Ike could be down the gurgler approx US$3m in uninsurable deposits with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

They still have $14.5m left over and strong cash flows. But a nasy hit all the same.

We might moan about the bank profits here in NZ, but you'd hope our banks don't end up in such a position.

Not ideal, but it does show that IKE is being prudent and not putting all their eggs in one basket.

Quote from: Minimoke on Mar 13, 2023, 10:02 AMLooks like Ike could be down the gurgler approx US$3m in uninsurable deposits with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

They still have $14.5m left over and strong cash flows. But a nasy hit all the same.

We might moan about the bank profits here in NZ, but you'd hope our banks don't end up in such a position.

Seems their deposit is safe:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/485847/us-announces-it-will-stem-silicon-valley-bank-fallout-customers-to-have-deposit-access

IKE has released an update to their previous announcement:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408246

Performance update Thursday 4th May:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/410676

Quote from: Untamed on May 01, 2023, 03:41 PMPerformance update Thursday 4th May:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/410676

I could do with some positive news. I'm well down on this one!
(current SP $0.81)

At some stage Winner reckoned Full Yr revenue of $39 mill..... I'll be happy above $30 mill.

( A small profit might even get the market excited! )

Roll on Thursday.

Q1 revenue $6.8m Cash and receivables 27.7m. Payables unsure
Q2 revenue $8.6m. Cash and receivables $29.3m. Payables unsure
Q3 revenue $7.9m Cash and receivables $23.5 payables $1.8m
Q4 revenue $7.5m, Cash and receivables  $23.2m, payables $2.3m

Outlook for new Q1 to be less than $7.5m

So. I guess not a great result.

Here's the update folks

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/410851

Highlights:
� FY24 revenue of ~$30.8m (+93% vs pcp).
� This result is ~$6m ahead of internal budgets set at the beginning of the financial year and above upgraded analyst consensus.
� FY23 gross margin approximately of ~$16.4m (+67% vs pcp), with a gross margin percentage of ~53%.
� Total cash and receivables as at 31 March 2023 of $23.2m, comprised of $18m cash and $5.2m receivables, with payables of $2.3m and no debt.

Commentary and outlook

IKE CEO Glenn Milnes commented, "The FY23 period saw continued strong momentum across IKE. We have achieved very significant revenue and gross margin growth and have closed the period materially ahead of all internal stretch targets.

Our balance sheet remains extremely strong, noting that the USD and AUD fx rates impact our reported NZD position each quarter. Operating leverage is evident via the scalability of our software products and our disciplined approach to managing operating expenses.

Our pipeline is strong, and Q4 sales highlights included winning about one new enterprise customer per week, including another of the largest tier-1 electric utilities operating on the East Coast of the US, who selected IKE's next-gen structural analysis product, called Next-Gen PoleForeman. This customer win means an initial 100 subscription licenses for distribution network design, for three-years, displacing the incumbent competitor who had served this account for more than 20 year

Quote from: Minimoke on May 04, 2023, 08:55 AMQ1 revenue $6.8m Cash and receivables 27.7m. Payables unsure
Q2 revenue $8.6m. Cash and receivables $29.3m. Payables unsure
Q3 revenue $7.9m Cash and receivables $23.5 payables $1.8m
Q4 revenue $7.5m, Cash and receivables  $23.2m, payables $2.3m

Outlook for new Q1 to be less than $7.5m

So. I guess not a great result.

When you put it like that mini not a great picture, especially when current report is full of huge % numbers v last year

Market loves the result

And more importantly thinks the story is great so future growth assured

Love the bit when they mentioned AI .... that'll turn on a few punters

Share price $1 next week and then heading back to $1.20

Quote from: winner (n) on May 04, 2023, 11:00 AMMarket loves the result

And more importantly thinks the story is great so future growth assured

Love the bit when they mentioned AI .... that'll turn on a few punters

Share price $1 next week and then heading back to $1.20

Just four trades worth $27k. And 2 of those trades only accounted for 470 shares crossing.

Too early to get over excited!

SP not going to do anything much until the market absorbs the analysts briefing about midday today.

Still a longer term hold for me as I like these tailwinds......

Macro-market tailwinds across North America remain highly supportive, driven
by the multi-year investment being made into building overhead fiber
networks, and additively, the forecasted $300B investment by electric
utilities into building & maintaining distribution network capacity and
associated network hardening. To meet carbon-zero targets in the U.S. by
2050, analysts forecast that the approximately 50% of the energy in the U.S.
needs to be on the electrical grid, from a position of just 20% today. IKE's
product suite drives productivity in support of these network engineering and
capacity activities.

Quote from: Left Field on May 04, 2023, 11:40 AMSP not going to do anything much until the market absorbs the analysts briefing about midday today.

Still a longer term hold for me as I like these tailwinds......

Macro-market tailwinds across North America remain highly supportive, driven
by the multi-year investment being made into building overhead fiber
networks, and additively, the forecasted $300B investment by electric
utilities into building & maintaining distribution network capacity and
associated network hardening. To meet carbon-zero targets in the U.S. by
2050, analysts forecast that the approximately 50% of the energy in the U.S.
needs to be on the electrical grid, from a position of just 20% today. IKE's
product suite drives productivity in support of these network engineering and
capacity activities.

The bit I did like is them beating off a competitor who had been a supplier for 20 years.

I get a bit nervous when CFO's choose to depart.... however the new appointment looks promising.... time will tell.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411377

Brian has a range of experiences relevant to IKE's industry and growth trajectory. Most recently he was CFO of Also Energy Inc., where he was part of the executive team that grew the business at more than 30% CAGR over six years and led its sale to NYSE-listed STEM Inc. for US$652m.

Quote from: Left Field on May 15, 2023, 09:17 AMI get a bit nervous when CFO's choose to depart.... however the new appointment looks promising.... time will tell.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411377

Brian has a range of experiences relevant to IKE's industry and growth trajectory. Most recently he was CFO of Also Energy Inc., where he was part of the executive team that grew the business at more than 30% CAGR over six years and led its sale to NYSE-listed STEM Inc. for US$652m.

Interesting chain of events. They announce the hire of Brian Musfeldt - that must have taken some time.

And then they announce Stephen Fairbrother, is leaving to pursue other opportunities.

New bloke looks interesting.  A bit of detail there at face value. I'll have to dig into the companies in more detail later on.

Crikey, they kept us waiting till 5pm....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412288

Highlights to March 2023:

� FY23 revenue of ~$30.8m (+93% vs pcp).
� FY23 Subscription and Transaction revenue of ~$27.m (+93% vs pcp). ~90% of IKE's revenue in FY23 came from theses recurring and re-occurring sources.
� FY23 gross margin of ~$16.3m (pcp of $9.9m), with FY23 gross margin percentage 53% (pcp of 62%).
� FY23 EBITDA loss of ~$2.1m (pcp -$5.3m).
� FY23 Net Loss of ~$6.6m (pcp -$7.9m).
� Total cash and receivables 31 March 2022 of $23.2m, comprised of $18m cash and $5.2m receivables, with payables of $2.3m and no debt.

Our pipeline is strong and as noted Q4 sales highlights included winning about one new enterprise customer per week, including another of the very largest tier-1 electric utilities operating on the East Coast of the US, who selected IKE's next-gen structural analysis product called Next-Gen PoleForeman. This customer win means an initial 100 subscription licenses for distribution network design, for three-years, displacing an incumbent competitor who had served this account for the prior 20 years.
Another business development milestone in Q4 included advancing a pole-specific integration and AI automation project, at scale via IKE Insight, with one of the largest digital data collection businesses for global infrastructure.
Macro-market tailwinds across North America remain supportive, with IKE's product suite driving productivity outcomes for these large scale network engineering and capacity activities.
We are executing on sizable sales opportunities and expect healthy growth in the FY24 period and beyond.


Pretty good I reckon.

Quote from: Left Field on May 30, 2023, 05:07 PMCrikey, they kept us waiting till 5pm....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412288

Highlights to March 2023:

� FY23 revenue of ~$30.8m (+93% vs pcp).
� FY23 Subscription and Transaction revenue of ~$27.m (+93% vs pcp). ~90% of IKE's revenue in FY23 came from theses recurring and re-occurring sources.
� FY23 gross margin of ~$16.3m (pcp of $9.9m), with FY23 gross margin percentage 53% (pcp of 62%).
� FY23 EBITDA loss of ~$2.1m (pcp -$5.3m).
� FY23 Net Loss of ~$6.6m (pcp -$7.9m).
� Total cash and receivables 31 March 2022 of $23.2m, comprised of $18m cash and $5.2m receivables, with payables of $2.3m and no debt.

Our pipeline is strong and as noted Q4 sales highlights included winning about one new enterprise customer per week, including another of the very largest tier-1 electric utilities operating on the East Coast of the US, who selected IKE's next-gen structural analysis product called Next-Gen PoleForeman. This customer win means an initial 100 subscription licenses for distribution network design, for three-years, displacing an incumbent competitor who had served this account for the prior 20 years.
Another business development milestone in Q4 included advancing a pole-specific integration and AI automation project, at scale via IKE Insight, with one of the largest digital data collection businesses for global infrastructure.
Macro-market tailwinds across North America remain supportive, with IKE's product suite driving productivity outcomes for these large scale network engineering and capacity activities.
We are executing on sizable sales opportunities and expect healthy growth in the FY24 period and beyond.


Pretty good I reckon.

Pretty much what they announced on 4 May

Q4 - picked up 1 new enterprise customer a week.

They now have 6 of the 10 largest investor owned utilities - which reflects their sales strategy of starting at the top (aiming for the largest companies first). They have created 40 new staff roles in the last 12-18 months - I assume a fair whack of these are sales staff, as they now have three dedicated sales teams for electricity networks, communications networks, and engineering companies that support those networks.

Not too shabby!

IKE hopefully 'well positioned' to benefit from this infrastructure spending boost.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/26/high-speed-internet-white-house-announcement/

Annual Report out

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/414039/397703.pdf

If they stick to their 45% pa targeted growth in CAPEX, holders should be happy. (Page 7.)

Re-occurring transaction and subscription revenue now represents over 80% of revenue (P 8.)

Q1 results tomorrow:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415228

FY24 Q1 results out........not as rosey as some anticipated..... a slow down or just a well signalled seasonal glitch..... the market will decide.


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415241

Highlights:
� Q1 FY24 revenue of ~$5.6m (-18% vs pcp).
� Subscription revenue of $2.5m (+36% vs pcp)
� Transaction revenue of $2.1m (-45% vs pcp)
� Q1 FY24 gross margin approximately of ~$3.4m (-11% vs pcp), with a gross margin percentage of ~61%. (up from pcp of ~56%)
� Total cash and receivables as at 30 June 2023 of $18.1m, comprised of $13.7m cash and $4.4m receivables, with payables of $1.1m and no debt.

Commentary and outlook

IKE CEO Glenn Milnes commented, "The Q1 period saw strong continued momentum in underlying software subscription revenue growth, but as signaled in prior updates & communications we had a temporary and well signaled slow-down in transaction revenue. This was primarily due to the engineering practices of an underlying utility where two larger IKE customers are building fiber networks. This specific situation has been addressed, and based on guidance from these and other long-term customers we expect transaction volumes to build strongly throughout FY24. We have not changed our growth outlook from a broader FY24 perspective.

It's the story that counts Leftie ....and what a story eh

""The Q1 period saw strong continued momentum in underlying software subscription revenue growth, but as signaled in prior updates & communications we had a temporary and well signaled slow-down in transaction revenue."

So not a lot of surprise here. I guess we always look to periods on period growth - but like every company there will be ebbs and flows.

I still like the pipe line and potential market. 

And as always - cash on hand, debt free and receivables exceeding payables.

Next-generation structural analysis software product, PoleForeman, sounds very positive if they can execute. A x5 increase in subscription revenue sounds too good to be true. So I won't get excited until I see results in  1 1/2 years.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 26, 2023, 08:45 AMIt's the story that counts Leftie ....and what a story eh

Yep all depends on the future story unfolding. Do we believe IKE's assurances or not?

This version of the update includes more info and some pretty charts for you Winnie.

https://ikegps.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/230726-IKE-Q1-FY24-Performance-Update-Final.pdf

The following provides IKE's perspective on past Q1 TOTAL Revenue.....

Q2 FY24 revenue better impress!

While I still have faith in this company, I have to say, it pisses me off that they pick and choose which Q&A to respond to, after these presentations. I think I have submitted a question every single time, and not once have they ever answered it. That is something that disappoints me greatly. I could understand it if they were inundated with questions, but they were not.

On a more positive note, I am not too concerned about the drop in transaction revenue. The explanation given is acceptable when one understands that the transaction revenue is related to customers' operations, rather than to IKE's. If there are hold ups or problems with customer A's project at any given time, that is obviously going to impact on the "per asset" transactions, and is really out of IKE's control. If it was subscription revenue that was down, that would be an entirely different matter, and a major concern.

Paraphrasing comments from today's briefing....

"Cash and Balance sheet (strength) are our No1 Priority."

"we are aiming at positive EBITDA this year....(and beyond.")

"our customers forecast/expect 'substantial growth' over FY23."

" there are indications subscription income will grow substantially (materially)  in the next 12 to 18 months."

It seems that lots of story with a heavy dose of wriggle room is the way to go.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 26, 2023, 03:07 PMParaphrasing comments from today's briefing....

"Cash and Balance sheet (strength) are our No1 Priority."

"we are aiming at positive EBITDA this year....(and beyond.")

"our customers forecast/expect 'substantial growth' over FY23."

" there are indications subscription income will grow substantially (materially)  in the next 12 to 18 months."

It seems that lots of story with a heavy dose of wriggle room is the way to go.

Burnt through $4m of cash in 1st quarter ...wouldn't want to do that for many more quarters

Had a look and gosh IKE's been listed for 10 years and poor shareholders are down 35% or so.

Quote from: Gerald on Jul 26, 2023, 06:34 PMHad a look and gosh IKE's been listed for 10 years and poor shareholders are down 35% or so.

Never reported a profit .....accumulated losses $75m

But that's the past .....good story about the future

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 26, 2023, 06:57 PMNever reported a profit .....accumulated losses $75m

But that's the past .....good story about the future

Just like Xero.... (Xero accumulated losses a mere $433m.)

The new 'normal'.

Forsyth Barr's view of IKE's update.......FB see SP value to $1.21

"IkeGPS (IKE) reported a subdued 1Q24, with short-term weakness in Platform Transactions partially offset by continued growth in Platform Subscriptions. After +93% growth in FY23, total revenue in 1Q24 fell -18% to NZ$5.6m, as compared to 1Q23, driven by the significant, but well signalled, temporary slowdown in billable transactions. Transactions by number fell -30% to 77k while revenues sunk -45% against the same quarter last year to NZ$2.1m.

This transaction slowdown reflects temporary delays in fibre network deployments from two of IKE's largest customers. On a positive note, subscription revenue climbed +35% to NZ$2.5m, with customer growth exceeding our expectations. Group gross margin recovered to 61% in 1Q24 from 54% in 1Q23, however, we consider this entirely from the change in product mix reflecting a higher proportion of Subscription revenues (~84% gross margins) over Platform Transactions (~24% gross margin in 1Q24 versus an average of 32% over the last three years). We retain our FY24 revenue forecast of NZ$38.8m but recognise this requires a solid second half — boosted by industry tailwinds, continued customer wins, a rebound in transactional revenues and the introduction of the updated PoleForeman product to several of IKE's largest customers. Our blended spot valuation rises +NZ6cps to NZ$1.21 due mostly to the continued expansion of multiples in the peer group.

The fall in transaction volumes was anticipated, but more than we expected. The temporary slowdown in transaction revenue in 1Q24 was not unexpected, given commentary provided by IKE at its FY23 result that 1Q24 could track behind the run rate seen in 4Q23. We note 1Q24 weakness should be viewed in the context of the +193% year-over-year lift in transactional revenues during FY23. The fall in transaction activity relates to two of IKE's larger customers delaying fibre network deployment due to "the engineering practices of an underlying utility" in one of the locations where these networks are being built. We estimate these two customers accounted for a large proportion, if not all, of the -NZ$2.3m decline in transactional revenue from 4Q23 to 1Q24, highlighting customer concentration. IKE has signalled that the issue with these customers has been resolved, and we anticipate transactions will recommence with these customers shortly, however, with some drag on the 2Q23 result.


FY24 outlook remains robust — with a number of promising dynamics at play
Despite the temporary downturn in transaction revenue in 1Q24, the outlook for the remainder of FY24 remains robust. To date, IKE has seen no economy-led weakness in fibre network deployment or electricity network hardening work undertaken. IKE expects transaction activity to rebound strongly into the second half of the year as it has streamlined processes with its two largest customers. Further, IKE's subscription business is exhibiting strong momentum. IKE added 15 new enterprise customers in 1Q24, which would equate to +16% annual customer growth if this rate holds. The company has also begun to roll out its next-generation PoleForeman product within its Structural business segment. The new PoleForeman product runs on a "per-seat" subscription model that IKE expects could "generate more than five times the level of subscription revenue per annum per customer... vs the legacy solution". We also consider it possible for IKE's partnership with one of the largest data companies in the world to contribute revenues before the end of FY24, after two and a half years of co-development on AI driven automation."

Zero reason for concern. Business as usual.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 26, 2023, 07:11 PMJust like Xero.... (Xero accumulated losses a mere $433m.)

The new 'normal'.

And just like Xero one day IKE will come right and the share price will take off and will head to 50 bucks, maybe even 100 bucks

Smart acquisition, expected to be accretive immediately. Imbedding IKE into engineer education/training, however considered not 'materially significant' to IKE's main revenue streams.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415624

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 02, 2023, 08:57 AMSmart acquisition, expected to be accretive immediately. Imbedding IKE into engineer education/training, however considered not 'materially significant' to IKE's main revenue streams.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415624

I Like it. You train people. They become aware of your products. They become advocates for your products. Great long term strategy.

Good talent acquisition

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/416075

IKE CEO Glenn Milnes commented, "We have known and admired Brett and SPIDA, who our PoleForeman product competes with directly, for many years. As such we are very excited to welcome his deep domain expertise into our company where he will work alongside myself and our US-centred leadership team. As noted, Brett's experiences are uniquely matched to IKE's product suite, our industry, and our growth goals."

A little bit of joy for IKE holders......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417154

ikeGPS Group Limited (ASX/NZX:IKE) or IKE, today announces That it has signed a new subscription contract with a large U.S.-wide infrastructure customer, in this instance supporting a network assessment in California.
This customer contract is expected to generate approximately $1.5m or greater of subscription revenue in the coming 18 to 24 months.

onwards and upwards

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 28, 2023, 08:36 AMA little bit of joy for IKE holders......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417154

ikeGPS Group Limited (ASX/NZX:IKE) or IKE, today announces That it has signed a new subscription contract with a large U.S.-wide infrastructure customer, in this instance supporting a network assessment in California.
This customer contract is expected to generate approximately $1.5m or greater of subscription revenue in the coming 18 to 24 months.

onwards and upwards

Worth a couple of extra % of revenue. Will take that.

But I like this bit "This customer also represents the new and large market opportunity for IKE in California, with recent regulatory requirements requiring all pole owners to perform a
full engineering assessment of their networks."

Quote from: Minimoke on Aug 28, 2023, 08:48 AMWorth a couple of extra % of revenue. Will take that.

But I like this bit "This customer also represents the new and large market opportunity for IKE in California, with recent regulatory requirements requiring all pole owners to perform a
full engineering assessment of their networks."

In FY 23 IKE added >350 customers in North America; ie over 1 per week. Most of these customers didn't warrant a 'price sensitive notice' such as this.

I reckon this client win is a bigger deal than many appreciate;
1.) California is a hugely influential US state, and gaining a key client here will open many doors. California's economy is the largest in USA at $3.5 Trillion and about fifth in the world in terms of GDP.
2.) This notice only mentions subscription revenue. Transaction revenues, based on client usage are likely to add significant additional revenues to the $1.5m subscription income.

As SP languishes this looks to be a good appointment...... results due 29th Nov.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421996

I still believe in this company, but I have to admit, when I saw yesterday's share price ... I felt really, really disillusioned. I really need to see some light at the end of this tunnel now.

But yes, looks like a valuable appointment.

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 21, 2023, 08:37 AMAs SP languishes this looks to be a good appointment...... results due 29th Nov.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421996

YIKES for IKE holders.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422572

� Revenue 1H FY24 of ~$10.5m (-32% vs pcp).
� Subscription revenue was ~$5.1m (+24% vs pcp).
� Transaction revenue was ~$3.7m (-60% vs pcp).
� Gross margin 1H FY24 of ~$6.2m (-24% vs pcp), reflected in the revenue mix above.
� Gross margin percentage 1H FY24 of ~59% (up from pcp of 53%).
� Net loss was ~ -$6.9m (pcp $1.1m profit). This change was primarily due to:
� Gross margin of $6.2M (-~$2m vs pcp)
� Foreign exchange and asset fair value movements of $0.3m (-~$4.7M vs pcp).
� Cash and receivables at 30 September 2023 of ~$16.3m, comprised of $10.2m cash and $6.1m receivables, with payables of $1.2m and no debt.



   

Pretty much all of the above we were already aware of, but does anyone else find this a little concerning?

Cost-down program: In Q3, we reduced IKE's cost base to maintain the timeframe towards both EBITDA and cash positive operations. Regrettably this included releasing team members representing approximately 19% of total employee numbers. Most of the impacted roles are U.S. based back-office and service positions.

Back office/service staff admittedly, but 19% of the workforce is pretty significant. I hope customers don't see any reduction in behind the scenes customer service as a result.

Quote from: Untamed on Nov 29, 2023, 08:49 AMPretty much all of the above we were already aware of, but does anyone else find this a little concerning?

Cost-down program: In Q3, we reduced IKE's cost base to maintain the timeframe towards both EBITDA and cash positive operations. Regrettably this included releasing team members representing approximately 19% of total employee numbers. Most of the impacted roles are U.S. based back-office and service positions.

Back office/service staff admittedly, but 19% of the workforce is pretty significant. I hope customers don't see any reduction in behind the scenes customer service as a result.

Sounds like they weren't really needed in first place ...surplus to requirements ....waste of money

It does. Which is what surprises/concerns me (just a little). I would have thought IKE would have had their finger on the pulse with regard to any "surplus to requirements" positions (long before now).

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 29, 2023, 09:55 AMSounds like they weren't really needed in first place ...surplus to requirements ....waste of money

Quote from: Untamed on Nov 29, 2023, 08:49 AMPretty much all of the above we were already aware of, but does anyone else find this a little concerning?

Cost-down program: In Q3, we reduced IKE's cost base to maintain the timeframe towards both EBITDA and cash positive operations. Regrettably this included releasing team members representing approximately 19% of total employee numbers. Most of the impacted roles are U.S. based back-office and service positions.

Back office/service staff admittedly, but 19% of the workforce is pretty significant. I hope customers don't see any reduction in behind the scenes customer service as a result.

It could be a worry.

But I like the decisiveness. If you have fat that aren't adding to your bottom line cut them out. And cut them out quick.

Yeah, that's true. Just not something I would ever have anticipated.

Quote from: Minimoke on Nov 29, 2023, 11:39 AMBut I like the decisiveness. If you have fat that aren't adding to your bottom line cut them out. And cut them out quick.

A think I like about IKE is they seem to regularly report to market. Some are updates and some are the formal quarterly updates. So as holders we are pretty well informed and often not to omany surprises. It would be great if other companies were similarly transparent.

Nice bit of positive news to end the year. A NZ$3.7m contract agreed for the next five years. I still see it as the thin end of the wedge in terms of future revenue. But appears to me the wedge is getting hammered harder into the market.

IKE feeling pretty bullish "Looking ahead, we're poised for significant growth from this new product. We have in place strategic sales initiatives tied to IKE PoleForeman that targets adding an additional NZ$6-7m in annual subscription revenue in the next 12 to 18 months. This is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of growth potential considering our extensive customer base and a largely untapped market of more than 3,000 North American electric utilities, with many of these utilities yet to standardize on a structural analysis solution."

Quote from: Minimoke on Dec 22, 2023, 09:09 AMNice bit of positive news to end the year. A NZ$3.7m contract agreed for the next five years. I still see it as the thin end of the wedge in terms of future revenue. But appears to me the wedge is getting hammered harder into the market.

IKE feeling pretty bullish "Looking ahead, we're poised for significant growth from this new product. We have in place strategic sales initiatives tied to IKE PoleForeman that targets adding an additional NZ$6-7m in annual subscription revenue in the next 12 to 18 months. This is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of growth potential considering our extensive customer base and a largely untapped market of more than 3,000 North American electric utilities, with many of these utilities yet to standardize on a structural analysis solution."

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423990

Naaaiice  Christmas present for holders!

 The upsell of IKE's new platform signifies a more the tenfold increase in annual recurring revenue from this customer versus IKE's legacy product (~NZ$70k p a to ~NZ$700k p a subscription revenue), demonstrating the value of the product to the customer.

Makes me feel better
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/425034/411221.pdf

Quote from: Forrestdun on Jan 19, 2024, 02:35 PMMakes me feel better
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/425034/411221.pdf

I'm pretty sure your tongue is firmly rammed into your cheek on this comment.  $3000 down as a his percentage of salary is... a pittance.  IKE was spruiked hard this time last year but it's share price has been all down hill since then. 

I'm surprised that the self proclaimed "value investors" who herald OCA and the opportunity to chase an ever lower share price have not hopped on board with this one too.  I took a small speccy stake but sold out for a loss pronto when the growth story slowed and the trend became obvious.   

I get the feeling that some of you actually do not really understand what this company does. In order to fully appreciate the long term potential of this company, you need to have some level of understanding of who their customers are, and what those customers do. Particularly so for the electricity distribution sector. If you have even a small understanding of that, and the monumental number of (pole) assets in North America alone, you cannot fail to see the long term potential of this company. Even I sometimes feel a little impatient, but I remind myself of why I bought into the company in the first place. Those reasons have not changed. This is not an investment for the impatient.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 20, 2024, 10:09 AMI'm pretty sure your tongue is firmly rammed into your cheek on this comment.  $3000 down as a his percentage of salary is... a pittance.  IKE was spruiked hard this time last year but it's share price has been all down hill since then. 

I'm surprised that the self proclaimed "value investors" who herald OCA and the opportunity to chase an ever lower share price have not hopped on board with this one too.  I took a small speccy stake but sold out for a loss pronto when the growth story slowed and the trend became obvious.   

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 20, 2024, 10:09 AMI'm pretty sure your tongue is firmly rammed into your cheek on this comment.  $3000 down as a his percentage of salary is... a pittance.  IKE was spruiked hard this time last year but it's share price has been all down hill since then. 

I'm surprised that the self proclaimed "value investors" who herald OCA and the opportunity to chase an ever lower share price have not hopped on board with this one too.  I took a small speccy stake but sold out for a loss pronto when the growth story slowed and the trend became obvious.   

I'm a holder and underwater. Does make me feel better that CEO is purchasing with cash even if it is only a small amount. I do think there is solid potential in the company if they can pull it off....

They already are pulling it off. Investors who fully understand the mammoth goal IKE has set themselves, and the sheer size of the potential market available to them, know that patience will be a virtue with this company.

I am also underwater, but I can live with that, because the story has not changed. The reasons I bought in, still apply. As the Mainland Cheese dudes used to say - "good things take time."

Quote from: Forrestdun on Jan 24, 2024, 01:11 PMI'm a holder and underwater. Does make me feel better that CEO is purchasing with cash even if it is only a small amount. I do think there is solid potential in the company if they can pull it off....

Story remains good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/425847/412184.pdf

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 08, 2024, 08:47 AMStory remains good
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/425847/412184.pdf

Holders sure  got to be patient as IKE switches to subscription and reoccurring revenue streams........ should we trust IKE's expectations?

• Four-year revenue CAGR of 35%
• Recurring subscription and reoccurring
transaction revenues (shown by the green and
blue segments in this chart) dominate IKE's
revenue mix, at 85% YTD.
• An expectation for healthy contract growth in
the FY25 period and beyond.

Another positive announcement today.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/427467/414303.pdf

This upsell signifies a more the fivefold increase in annual recurring revenue from this customer.

New customer wins have included flipping one of the ten largest utilities in North America from a competitor

And another announcement this morning:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/427727/414624.pdf

Over the coming period, this commitment means over 650 engineers at this electric
utility will use IKE Poleforeman's advanced capabilities for structural analysis and the
design of distribution assets, to meet grid resiliency and network capacity targets
over the coming decades.
+ This upsell signifies a more then ten-fold increase in annual recurring revenue from
this customer.
+ An expected consequence of this Standards decision at the utility is that additional
engineering companies and communications groups, working across this utility's
network, will also adopt IKE PoleForeman.

These are not pie in the sky little companies. IKE is targeting, and winning, the big players. Sure, it is taking time, but they are doing what they said they would do.

Do we know what their current cash position is and the likelihood of needing to raise capital? They had  $10m at the end of September 2023, so I'm assuming they burned through half of that by now.   

Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 12, 2024, 11:30 AMDo we know what their current cash position is and the likelihood of needing to raise capital? They had  $10m at the end of September 2023, so I'm assuming they burned through half of that by now.   

Their last update for Q3 FY 24 stated...

"As of 31 January 2023,(sic??) cash increased to NZ$11.0m and receivables decreased to
NZ$3.5m."

The above implied cash burn halted/reduced but holders clearly due for an update.

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 12, 2024, 12:50 PMTheir last update for Q3 FY 24 stated...

"As of 31 January 2023,(sic??) cash increased to NZ$11.0m and receivables decreased to
NZ$3.5m."

The above implied cash burn halted/reduced but holders clearly due for an update.

At 30 Sept they had $10.233 cash on hand and $6.08m in receivables.

On the other side they had $2.43 in receivables and employee benefits due.

Thanks, I hadn't seen that update.  It is certainly positive if they've managed to halt the cash burn. 

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/429527/416703.pdf

Not a good update........ but follows guidance....... all will be well in FY25. Ho hum.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429741

FY24 Highlights:
+ Revenue of ~NZ$21.1m (-31% pcp).
+ Subscription revenue of ~NZ$10.7m (+22% vs pcp).
+ Transaction revenue of ~NZ$7.3m (-61% vs pcp).
+ Gross margin of ~NZ$12.7m (-23% vs pcp), with a gross margin percentage of ~60% (up from pcp of ~53%)
+ Total cash and receivables as of 31 March 2024 of NZ$15.4m comprised of NZ$10.2m cash and NZ$5.2m receivables, with payables of NZ$1.2m and no debt (up from the position 31 December 2023 of NZ$8.0m cash and NZ$7.2m receivables, and flat against the cash position 30 September 2023).

IKE pinning their hopes on a better 2025! Crikey.

FY25 Outlook
Subscription revenue in FY25 is expected to grow strongly, at 50% or greater vs pcp to ~$16m per annum or greater. This outlook is based on the ongoing growth of our core IKE Office Pro subscription product, which has seen >30% CAGR over the past three years and with ~95% customer retention. It is also based on the the success of the launch of our new IKE PoleForeman product with more than NZ$8m of TCV closed since its Q3 launch.

Transaction revenue in FY25 is expected to grow, but with a wide range of potential growth profiles and as such represents higher risk – both upside and downside. Transaction revenue at IKE over the past three years has grown at a ~45% CAGR, although FY24 levels were down against FY23 due to FY23 seeing outsized customer activity. Based on guidance from long-term customers we expect transaction volumes and associated revenue to build into FY25.

Overall, we closed ~NZ$27m of contracts in the FY24 period, against approximately NZ$21m of recognized revenue. Our customer retention rate is excellent, at approximately 95% and our sales pipeline for new business is strong and is growing. We won 59 new subscription customers in the U.S. market over the past year, continuing a win rate of approximately one new customer per week.

To be fair, it's a bad update either, and certainly not a yIKEs update.

Subs revenue has shown good growth and their cash situation is strong.  It's that trans revenue that needs further explanation - it's all very well to dismiss a 60% yoy drop as "outsized customer activity" but why?  Similarly, with the trans rev guidance of, "a wide range of potential growth profiles and as such represents higher risk – both upside and downside." Can anyone explain why this is so potentially lumpy? 

Subscription revenue is set in concrete - it is predictable income. Transaction revenue is unpredictable in terms of timing, as this income is what customers pay (in layman's terms) when they "do stuff" using the IKE platform. Given the nature of the sectors IKE supports eg: electricity and telecommunications, IKE has zero control over when the customer "does stuff." There will be transaction income, but my understanding is that it cannot really be accurately projected by IKE - the customer decides when and how often they "do the stuff" that generates the transaction income.

Terrible explanation, but this is why transaction income is so lumpy and unpredictable. Which is why IKE is trying really hard to build subscription revenue, as that is the one they can control.

For example, an electricity company might have a plan to run a check on a section of poles, using IKE tools/platform (which is what they get access to with their subscription). But the weather might turn to shit, there could be a storm, or there could be some other delay which means they don't get that project done this month. Those things are out of IKE's control. They do know that at some point the project will happen, but the timing of that, is out of IKE's hands.

With regards to the previous year's "outsized customer activity" - again, I am guessing a customer had a significant project on during that year - major investment in whatever it was - which was a one-off, and not "usual activity" that occurs every year. So that project would have generated a significant amount of transaction revenue, which was out of the ordinary.

Anyway, this is my take on it, OR I could be full of shit and know nothing  ;)  ;D

Quote from: Hectorplains on Apr 18, 2024, 09:29 AMTo be fair, it's a bad update either, and certainly not a yIKEs update.

Subs revenue has shown good growth and their cash situation is strong.  It's that trans revenue that needs further explanation - it's all very well to dismiss a 60% yoy drop as "outsized customer activity" but why?  Similarly, with the trans rev guidance of, "a wide range of potential growth profiles and as such represents higher risk – both upside and downside." Can anyone explain why this is so potentially lumpy? 

Quote from: Untamed on Apr 18, 2024, 12:58 PMSubscription revenue is set in concrete - it is predictable income. Transaction revenue is unpredictable in terms of timing, as this income is what customers pay (in layman's terms) when they "do stuff" using the IKE platform. Given the nature of the sectors IKE supports eg: electricity and telecommunications, IKE has zero control over when the customer "does stuff." There will be transaction income, but my understanding is that it cannot really be accurately projected by IKE - the customer decides when and how often they "do the stuff" that generates the transaction income.

Terrible explanation, but this is why transaction income is so lumpy and unpredictable. Which is why IKE is trying really hard to build subscription revenue, as that is the one they can control.

For example, an electricity company might have a plan to run a check on a section of poles, using IKE tools/platform (which is what they get access to with their subscription). But the weather might turn to shit, there could be a storm, or there could be some other delay which means they don't get that project done this month. Those things are out of IKE's control. They do know that at some point the project will happen, but the timing of that, is out of IKE's hands.

With regards to the previous year's "outsized customer activity" - again, I am guessing a customer had a significant project on during that year - major investment in whatever it was - which was a one-off, and not "usual activity" that occurs every year. So that project would have generated a significant amount of transaction revenue, which was out of the ordinary.

Anyway, this is my take on it, OR I could be full of shit and know nothing  ;)  ;D

Thanks, Untamed.  Market seems happy enough with the ann, up just under 5% on a down day.

I listened to the webinar, and while transaction revenue was a little disappointing, I understand why. Glen talked about transaction revenue being "volatile" and I think that is what I was trying to say in my previous post. That volatility is simply the nature of transactional activities, and I don't see it being anything to worry about. The income will come. IKE just can't always know when.

He mentioned they have developed a new product - Spike SignPilot - I didn't fully understand exactly what this is so will go back and have a closer look later, but a new product means new income.

IKE is still bringing an average of one new subscription customer onboard every week, and the uptake of the new Pole Foreman product, is reassuring.

They are still doing everything they have said they would do. The sheer scale of what they are endeavouring to achieve means it is going to take time. I see no reason why they won't achieve their goals. I just need to remind myself to be patient.

OK, Spike Sign Pilot is:

A Site Survey Management Solution for the Sign and Graphics Industry.

So it must be a version of the original Spike product (link below), customised specifically for the Sign and Graphics industry.  Not a lot of info.

https://shop.ikegps.com

I don't hold much faith in Simply Wall Street, so take everything they say with a big grain of salt. But thought their latest analysis (post the recent IKE results) was interesting.

Their "Fair Value" price target is $2.22. As much as I would be over the moon to ever see that, it seems well and truly ridiculous to me as things stand right now.

Also interesting to see that their IKE analysts are:

Bell Potter    James Filius
Forsyth Barr Group Ltd.    Lindsay James
MST Financial Services Pty Limited    James Lindsay

Quote from: Untamed on Apr 21, 2024, 09:29 AMI don't hold much faith in Simply Wall Street, so take everything they say with a big grain of salt. But thought their latest analysis (post the recent IKE results) was interesting.

Their "Fair Value" price target is $2.22. As much as I would be over the moon to ever see that, it seems well and truly ridiculous to me as things stand right now.

Also interesting to see that their IKE analysts are:

Bell Potter    James Filius
Forsyth Barr Group Ltd.    Lindsay James
MST Financial Services Pty Limited    James Lindsay

This explains the problem with Simply Wall St valuations. (https://www.earnmorelivefreely.com/simply-wall-street-review/)

IKE building up expectations with more encouraging news.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430636

Five new IKE PoleForeman subscription agreements are being put in place with major U.S. Electric Utilities, with an expected Total Contract Value (TCV) of ~NZ$4m, and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of NZ$1.3M.

Since the launch of this next-gen product in late 2023 the Company has added TCV of more than NZ$12m, representing ~NZ$4m of ARR.
+ These new contract wins include the largest parent electric utility group in the U.S. by revenue, who serves power to ~ten million underlying customers, and a Fortune 500 group that serves power to ~seven million underlying customers in the northern U.S.
+ In total, contracts to date will result in ~3,700 engineers using the software on a subscription basis across 47 utility groups (28 existing customers that have been upsold and 19 new customers).

This is great news. Thanks for sharing.

This bit makes me even happier:

An expectation that within the next 12-18 months, eight of the ten largest Investor-Owned Utilities in the U.S. will be standardized on IKE PoleForeman for their distribution network design. More broadly, IKE expects that dozens of additional utility & engineering customers will transition to the platform in the short and medium-term given the market acceptance of IKE PoleForeman as an industry standard, and particularly given the market leading capabilities of this new product.
+ These customers represent a highly sticky footprint. This structural analysis & design product is core to the network design process within these businesses, often with hundreds of engineers using the product every day. As such, it is a difficult solution to replace, and long-term retention rates exceed 95%.
+ IKE therefore has an expectation for a significant life-time value multiple beyond the TCV levels currently being closed.

Quote from: Left Field on May 07, 2024, 08:41 AMIKE building up expectations with more encouraging news.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430636

Five new IKE PoleForeman subscription agreements are being put in place with major U.S. Electric Utilities, with an expected Total Contract Value (TCV) of ~NZ$4m, and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of NZ$1.3M.

Since the launch of this next-gen product in late 2023 the Company has added TCV of more than NZ$12m, representing ~NZ$4m of ARR.
+ These new contract wins include the largest parent electric utility group in the U.S. by revenue, who serves power to ~ten million underlying customers, and a Fortune 500 group that serves power to ~seven million underlying customers in the northern U.S.
+ In total, contracts to date will result in ~3,700 engineers using the software on a subscription basis across 47 utility groups (28 existing customers that have been upsold and 19 new customers).

Well, the market definitely likes this announcement. Sitting at 48cents currently. Regardless of what the share price does, I think IKE has turned a corner, and are now well and truly "on the way." Sometimes I need a gentle reminder of why I hold this company. Nothing has changed. They are doing what they set out to do, and achieving a great deal more, in their huge and untapped market, than I think we give them credit for.

TA looking auspicious.... with the SP 'bottom' not likely to be revisited.

As customer gains translate to revenue gains it's onwards and upwards from these levels.

https://smallcaps.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ac3a9fdb691a7372f8b04b033&id=91cadf13fb&e=6c1ad5cc63

An interesting article that helps background the delays that have frustrated IKE's revenue goals and the legislative changes being made to hopefully improve the situation.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/13/power-grid-transmission-lines-electricity/


"The commission unanimously approved a measure Monday that allows it to exercise those new powers if projects stall in 10 national transmission corridors to be identified by the Energy Department. The department's draft plan for the corridors include some 3,500 miles of power lines across the country.

But tens of thousands of miles of new lines need to be built by 2035 to keep up with demand and meet climate goals, according to the Biden administration.

The amount of new transmission lines installed in the United States has dropped sharply since 2013, when 4,000 miles were added. Now, the nation struggles to bring online even 1,000 new miles a year."

So IKE is currently valued by the market at $70m.  Has anyone had a go at trying to work out what the value of the addressable market is and what percentage share IKE could realistically expect to win.

I have read the recent contract announcements and they really aren't that large.  They are going to need a lot of them to make this a profitable company.

Thanks in advance.

Tough year for IKE (as signalled ) -  though, increased losses & cash burn higher than I expected. ..... FY25 sounding more hopeful.... BUT FY25 better be good... otherwise I can see the need for more capital.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432074

+ Revenue of ~NZ$21.1m (-31% vs pcp).
+ Subscription revenue of ~NZ$10.7m (+21% vs pcp).
+ Transaction revenue of ~NZ$7.3m (-61% vs pcp).
+ Gross margin of ~NZ$12.7m (-22% vs pcp), with a gross margin percentage of ~60% (up from pcp of ~53%)
+ Net loss of ~NZ$15m (vs FY23 net loss of ~NZ$7.8m).
+ Total cash and receivables as at 31 March 2024 of NZ$15.4m, comprised of NZ$10.2m cash and NZ$5.2m receivables, with payables of NZ$1.2m and no debt (up from the position 31 December 2023 of NZ$8.0m cash and NZ$7.2m receivables, and flat against the cash position 30 September 2023).

FY25 Outlook

Subscription revenue in FY25 is expected to grow strongly, at +50% or greater vs pcp to ~$16m per annum or greater. This outlook is based on the ongoing growth of our core IKE Office Pro subscription product, which has seen >30% CAGR over the past three years and with ~95% customer retention. It is also based on the the success of the launch of our new IKE PoleForeman product, with more than NZ$12m of TCV closed since its Q3 launch and an additive subscriber base of >2,500 users.

Transaction revenue in FY25 is expected to grow, but with a wider range of potential growth profiles and as such represents higher risk – both upside and downside. Transaction revenue at IKE over the past three years has grown at a ~45% CAGR, although FY24 levels were down against FY23 due to FY23 seeing outsized customer activity. Based on guidance from long-term customers we expect transaction volumes and associated revenue to build into FY25.

For Bars Review

IkeGPS (IKE) reported a soft FY24 result, which was well signalled to the market. Revenue fell -31% from FY23 due to a major slowdown in Transactions, and operating expenses were elevated relative to our expectations despite cost out initiatives implemented in 2H24. While disappointing, FY25 should be a significantly improved period for IKE. Management has guided to >50% Subscriptions revenue growth in FY25, led by customer wins and the successful launch of IKE's next-generation PoleForeman software. Additionally, it appears the outlook for Transactions has improved, with IKE cautiously optimistic it will return to growth. IKE is well positioned for the future with: (1) a new base from which it can generate sustainable revenue growth, (2) improved business quality due to the shift in the product mix towards higher margin and more predictable Subscriptions revenues, and (3) supportive industry dynamics. On our revised forecasts, we expect IKE to achieve its cash flow breakeven goal without needing external capital. Our blended spot valuation rises +5% to NZ$0.83.

What's changed?
Earnings: Our operating EBITDA estimates fall by -NZ$2.4m, -NZ$4.0m and -NZ$4.4m in FY25, FY26 and FY27 respectively.
Blended spot valuation:  Our blended spot valuation rises +4cps to NZ$0.83, as gross margins improve medium term.
Revenue, as expected, fell significantly due to Transactions weakness
Total revenue fell -31% to NZ$21.1m in FY24, but this followed the +93% increase seen in FY23. Transactions revenue drove the decline, dropping -61% to NZ$7.3m as volumes from several key customers paused. Transactions revenue had ballooned +191% in FY23 due to outsized activity from these customers. While Transaction revenue appears suppressed relative to FY23, the overall trend remains constructive, with a +45% revenue CAGR since FY21. Subscriptions revenue grew by a solid +21% �������in FY24. Group margins expanded due to the product mix as the quality of revenues improves with higher Subscription revenues.

Operating expenses above our estimates
Total operating expenses of NZ$28.7m in FY24 exceeded our forecast of NZ$25.0m due to elevated sales and marketing costs, and heavy ongoing investment into R&D. We had expected some reduction from the cost-down programme IKE announced in 1H24, which included reducing staff in back office and service positions, as well as reducing contractor costs. While these cost savings were not immediately apparent in the FY24 result, the delayed impact may materialise in the FY25 results.

Outlook positive and our confidence in the revenue outlook grows
Despite depressed total revenue in FY24, the outlook for IKE has turned positive. Management has guided towards >+50% Subscription revenue growth in FY25 due to the ongoing success and growth prospects of its core subscription-based products: IKE Office Pro and IKE PoleForeman. Transaction revenue is also expected to grow, albeit with a wider range of potential growth outcomes. We are confident that the sales cycle is now turning positive and IKE can return to growth in FY25.

FY24 results summary
IKE reported a weak FY24 result. Total revenue fell -31% versus FY23 to NZ$21.1m, with Subscriptions revenue growth of +21% unable to offset a significant -61% decline in Transactions revenue. The decline in gross profit (-21%) was less pronounced, as the shift in the product mix towards higher-margin Subscription revenue resulted in gross margin expansion from ~53% in FY23 to ~60% in FY24. However, operating expenses were elevated relative to our expectations. This was despite the cost-down programme implemented in 2H24, where IKE expected to drive ~NZ$4m of annual cost savings. This saw NPAT losses expand by more than anticipated to NZ$15.0m.

Key points:

Subscriptions: Revenue growth has been driven by the ongoing growth of the IKE Office Pro subscription product, which has seen a >30% sales CAGR and ~95% customer retention over the past three years. Additionally, IKE's next-generation PoleForeman product has brought in over NZ$12m of total contract value (TCV) since its launch in 3Q24.
Transactions: Management attributed the fall in FY24 revenue to outsized activity from certain customers in FY23, which caused revenue to balloon +191% in that period. Transaction revenue has grown at ~+45% CAGR over the past three years and was still +15% ahead of FY22 in FY24.
Hardware: Revenue declined by -27%, driven by a -21% fall in hardware sales and partially offset by an +80% increase in other service revenue.
Operating expenses: Operating expenses came in at NZ$27.8m, +NZ$0.7m higher than FY23 and +15% above our forecast. Sales and marketing expenses increased by +26%, research and engineering expenses fell by 10%, and other operating expenses rose by +22%. 

Earnings revisions
IKE's operating expenses were significantly higher than we had anticipated in FY24, with sales and marketing costs in particular surprising to the upside. We adjust our estimates accordingly, with total operating expenses increasing by >20% across FY25, FY26 and FY27. Partially offsetting these impacts, we now have improved visibility into the growth drivers of IKE's revenue in the near term, and we assume a stronger top-line in FY26 and FY27. IKE disclosed revenue from IKE PoleForeman and IKE Insight in FY24. We expect PoleForeman and Insight to drive significant growth for IKE's Subscription segment, alongside the continued growth of its core IKE Office Pro product. IKE has also changed its segment reporting, providing increased clarity around gross margins. As a result, our gross margin profile improves materially over our medium-term forecast horizon. Nevertheless, our operating EBITDA estimates fall by -NZ$2.4m, -NZ$4.0m and -NZ$4.4m in FY25, FY26 and FY27 respectively.

We continue to believe that IKE has sufficient capital on hand (sitting on NZ$10.2m cash, with no debt) to get to cash flow breakeven. Our forecasts assume IKE reaches breakeven at the EBITDA line in FY26 and at the NPAT line in FY27.

Thanks for posting FB's take on IKE's results.

Detailed investor presentation link http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IKE/432098/419980.pdf

After reading the presentation and FB's take - I am more comfortable holding in the risky side of a portfolio.

If anyone is struggling to fully understand exactly what IKE "does" in terms of the products and services they provide, there is a wealth of information on their website.

There are sections on all the different products eg: IKE Office Pro, IKE Foreman, IKE Insight etc - plus information on their handheld devices etc. There are even videos demonstrating everything. This is where I got my basic understanding of what they do, and what it is they are providing. The knowledge I gained about electricity distribution in general, from my ex, is what helped me understand the time and manpower saving IKE is offering these companies. The sheer amount of information they can now have at their finger tips, is quite mind blowing. There will still be a need for feet on the ground of course, but using the devices and software on site, means they can do all kinds of measurements without having to walk miles along the length of a distribution line. For example, staff in the field can point their device at Pole A, then at Pole B, and automatically get information on span length, height and numerous other things.

Here is the start place for all of this:
https://ikegps.com/ike-office-pro/

This link takes you to demo videos on all aspects of IKE:
https://support.ikegps.com/hc/en-us/categories/18312278707341-Demonstration-Videos

To get an initial idea of what I'm talking about, watch this demo video:
https://support.ikegps.com/hc/en-us/articles/18384315556237-How-to-measure-spans-with-the-IKE-Vector-Tool

This company is smart. They know what they are doing and they have their sights set on a huge potential market. But like anything, it takes time to get initial customers onboard. Once they do though, those customers are "sticky" and are clearly renewing existing contracts, and expanding those contracts. As long as IKE keeps providing quality, customers will stick with them, and they will bring new customers with them (sub contractors etc). Transaction revenue will always be unpredictable in terms of timing, but it will always come eventually. The timing aspect depends on the customer's own project management eg: weather conditions, supply issues, sub contractor issues etc. Any one of those things can result in planned transaction "work" being delayed. This is simply a reflection of the nature of the electricity distribution and telecommunications business.

So I am not concerned about transaction revenue figures. As long as subscription revenue keeps growing, new customers keep coming onboard (and staying) - everything is ticking along as it should be.

Quote from: Untamed on May 31, 2024, 09:27 AMIf anyone is struggling to fully understand exactly what IKE "does" in terms of the products and services they provide, there is a wealth of information on their website.

There are sections on all the different products eg: IKE Office Pro, IKE Foreman, IKE Insight etc - plus information on their handheld devices etc. There are even videos demonstrating everything. This is where I got my basic understanding of what they do, and what it is they are providing. The knowledge I gained about electricity distribution in general, from my ex, is what helped me understand the time and manpower saving IKE is offering these companies. The sheer amount of information they can now have at their finger tips, is quite mind blowing. There will still be a need for feet on the ground of course, but using the devices and software on site, means they can do all kinds of measurements without having to walk miles along the length of a distribution line. For example, staff in the field can point their device at Pole A, then at Pole B, and automatically get information on span length, height and numerous other things.

Here is the start place for all of this:
https://ikegps.com/ike-office-pro/

This link takes you to demo videos on all aspects of IKE:
https://support.ikegps.com/hc/en-us/categories/18312278707341-Demonstration-Videos

To get an initial idea of what I'm talking about, watch this demo video:
https://support.ikegps.com/hc/en-us/articles/18384315556237-How-to-measure-spans-with-the-IKE-Vector-Tool

This company is smart. They know what they are doing and they have their sights set on a huge potential market. But like anything, it takes time to get initial customers onboard. Once they do though, those customers are "sticky" and are clearly renewing existing contracts, and expanding those contracts. As long as IKE keeps providing quality, customers will stick with them, and they will bring new customers with them (sub contractors etc). Transaction revenue will always be unpredictable in terms of timing, but it will always come eventually. The timing aspect depends on the customer's own project management eg: weather conditions, supply issues, sub contractor issues etc. Any one of those things can result in planned transaction "work" being delayed. This is simply a reflection of the nature of the electricity distribution and telecommunications business.

So I am not concerned about transaction revenue figures. As long as subscription revenue keeps growing, new customers keep coming onboard (and staying) - everything is ticking along as it should be.

Pull up a map of America. And measure how  far it is for one side to the other. Then measure distances from one city to another. Do the same for NZ. And we'll get a sense of the enormity of the opportunity.

America has miles and miles and miles of nothing. Except roads and power poles

Quote from: Minimoke on May 31, 2024, 11:29 AMPull up a map of America. And measure how  far it is for one side to the other. Then measure distances from one city to another. Do the same for NZ. And we'll get a sense of the enormity of the opportunity.

America has miles and miles and miles of nothing. Except roads and power poles

Exactly! The potential market is huge, and the potential time and manpower savings to customers is equally as huge.

Must admit I was a bit grumpy re yesterdays results and possibility of another cap raise however after listening to the Investors call I'm super happy to hold and have added more to my portfolio today.

Very impressed by new CFO Brian Musfeldt who assured "there is no need to raise capital in the future and we are extremely confident in FY25 and FY26."

Other highlights.
- Although IKE is now standardised in 8 out of 10 of the largest investor owned utilities in the US they estimate they have only penetrated 5% of the addressable North American market.
- In a similar metric, IKE is now being used by 26 of the 120 biggest utility companies
- On the above points IKE is still growing at at least one new customer signup per week.
- So huge market share growth opportunity in an industry that offers 25 years of  planned forward investment in Grid Analysis and upgrading. The CAGR rate for this alone is historically  47% pa (ie based on the last 3 yrs actual revenue gains by IKE)
- Add to the above point further  gains in market share, you can see why IKE is so bullish about its FY25 transaction revenue forecast of 50% revenue gain.
- IKE's first AI offering will be rolled out to customers in the first quarter of FY25 (it works much like Microsoft Co-Pilot and offers around 30% more productivity.)

Needless to say I'm no longer grumpy!

I just started my holding with a purchase 15,000, Future looks very exciting and management seems rather positive about prospects. Solid prospects in the US.

Will add more once I see some momentum in share price from here.

Have a nice long weekend to you all.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 31, 2024, 03:29 PMI just started my holding with a purchase 15,000, Future looks very exciting and management seems rather positive about prospects. Solid prospects in the US.

Will add more once I see some momentum in share price from here.

Have a nice long weekend to you all.

Thankyou. I am well under water with IKE, so you've done your bit to help me to the surface.

Quote from: Minimoke on May 31, 2024, 03:40 PMThankyou. I am well under water with IKE, so you've done your bit to help me to the surface.

Been on my watchlist for last 15 months, it was now or never. History says I am useless at picking the bottoms of stocks

Optimistic FY24 Annual Report for those interested

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/433676/attachment/421769/433676-421769.pdf

FY25 should be interesting....... will IKE deliver?

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 01, 2024, 08:46 AMOptimistic FY24 Annual Report for those interested

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/433676/attachment/421769/433676-421769.pdf

FY25 should be interesting....... will IKE deliver?

Photo on Page 19 ...wonder if they do pylons?

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 01, 2024, 09:02 AMPhoto on Page 19 ...wonder if they do pylons?

They only work with distribution networks, not transmission, so no, they don't
Pylons don't require the same level of maintenance as poles do, and they don't have other services attaching to them, as many distribution assets do, such as telecoms and fibre. So transmission, is not where the need, or the money is.

Shouldn't be too long before we get a Quartely update from them.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 01, 2024, 09:10 AMThey only work with distribution networks, not transmission, so no, they don't
Pylons don't require the same level of maintenance as poles do, and they don't have other services attaching to them, as many distribution assets do, such as telecoms and fibre. So transmission, is not where the need, or the money is.

OK - I spent out of curiosity maybe 30 min with the annual report, and understand that they offer SW-tools which should help with the design and analysis of electricity networks.

I am sure, this is a useful thing, and it must be, otherwise there would not be customers buying it, so - all good?

What I am wondering is - how do customers without the IKE tool box solve these problems (i.e. what are the alternatives to IKE), and how much money (if any) do they save by moving from whatever they otherwise do in order to plan / analyse their networks to IKE.

So - who are IKE's competitors (or competing methods) - and how much cheaper is it for the customers to use IKE tools instead?

I think anybody who invests into the future of this company would need to have an answer to this question.

Anybody did this analysis and happy to share their knowledge?

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 01, 2024, 02:52 PMOK - I spent out of curiosity maybe 30 min with the annual report, and understand that they offer SW-tools which should help with the design and analysis of electricity networks.

I am sure, this is a useful thing, and it must be, otherwise there would not be customers buying it, so - all good?

What I am wondering is - how do customers without the IKE tool box solve these problems (i.e. what are the alternatives to IKE), and how much money (if any) do they save by moving from whatever they otherwise do in order to plan / analyse their networks to IKE.

So - who are IKE's competitors (or competing methods) - and how much cheaper is it for the customers to use IKE tools instead?

I think anybody who invests into the future of this company would need to have an answer to this question.

Anybody did this analysis and happy to share their knowledge?

As a starting point, take a look at the case studies below:

https://ikegps.com/casestudies/twig_technologies/

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, 10 July 2024
Notification of Webinar for ikeGPS Group Q1 FY25 Performance Update
ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to announce it will release its
performance update for the quarter ended 30 June 2024 on Monday, 15 July 2024.
The Company will discuss the results on a webinar with CEO Glenn Milnes at 11:00am
AEST/1:00pm NZST the same day of release – Monday, 15 July 2024.
Registration for the investor webinar is available via the link below:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_d9UEjq7kTOew1LOSYu5mjw
Questions can be pre-submitted to simon@nwrcommunications.com.au or asked via the
Q&A function during the webinar.

Here's your opportunity to submit the questions some of you have been wanting answers to.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 10, 2024, 01:52 PMFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, 10 July 2024
Notification of Webinar for ikeGPS Group Q1 FY25 Performance Update
ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to announce it will release its
performance update for the quarter ended 30 June 2024 on Monday, 15 July 2024.
The Company will discuss the results on a webinar with CEO Glenn Milnes at 11:00am
AEST/1:00pm NZST the same day of release – Monday, 15 July 2024.
Registration for the investor webinar is available via the link below:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_d9UEjq7kTOew1LOSYu5mjw
Questions can be pre-submitted to simon@nwrcommunications.com.au or asked via the
Q&A function during the webinar.

Here's your opportunity to submit the questions some of you have been wanting answers to.

You mean we should ask them to provide an objective assessment of their products with the products of the competition?

 

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 10, 2024, 03:24 PMYou mean we should ask them to provide an objective assessment of their products with the products of the competition?

 

That's not what I meant ...but I actually see no reason why one couldn't ask that question. Whether you accept their answer as objective or not, would be up to you  ;)

I do think though, that IKE needs to understand that the technology side of what they provide, has a learning curve to it, and is not necessarily something shareholders can always get their heads around. So I think you could quite justifiably ask some of the questions you have posted here. Even something as simple as "if they don't use IKE, how do they complete these tasks?" or even "what are the proven advantages for customers using the IKE platform?"

We are part owners of the company. We are more than entitled to ask questions, and for things to be explained or elaborated on. I have a question I might ask - they mentioned their customer retention rate is 95%. Which is really good, but I would be keen to know why the other 5% didn't "stick." Maybe IKE can make improvements to better meet the needs of the few customers who are not convinced to stay. I'm not worried about that figure, but I am curious to hear the answer.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 10, 2024, 03:38 PMThat's not what I meant ...but I actually see no reason why one couldn't ask that question. Whether you accept their answer as objective or not, would be up to you  ;)

I do think though, that IKE needs to understand that the technology side of what they provide, has a learning curve to it, and is not necessarily something shareholders can always get their heads around. So I think you could quite justifiably ask some of the questions you have posted here. Even something as simple as "if they don't use IKE, how do they complete these tasks?" or even "what are the proven advantages for customers using the IKE platform?"

We are part owners of the company. We are more than entitled to ask questions, and for things to be explained or elaborated on. I have a question I might ask - they mentioned their customer retention rate is 95%. Which is really good, but I would be keen to know why the other 5% didn't "stick." Maybe IKE can make improvements to better meet the needs of the few customers who are not convinced to stay. I'm not worried about that figure, but I am curious to hear the answer.

Fair enough. I sent him a list of questions (along my previous posts) ... Lets see, whether and how they respond :) ;

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 10, 2024, 04:02 PMFair enough. I sent him a list of questions (along my previous posts) ... Lets see, whether and how they respond :) ;

I have also submitted my question. It will be interesting to see if they address them in the webinar. I have not had much luck, when submitting my questions live, so maybe we have a better chance submitting them ahead of time.

Q1 FY25 Performance Highlights:
� Exit Run Rate of annual platform subscription revenue grew to ~NZ$12.9m ( +40% vs pcp)
� Total recognized revenue in the quarter of ~NZ$5.8m (+4% vs pcp).
� Recognized subscription revenue of ~NZ$3.2m (+29% vs pcp).
� Recognized transaction revenue of ~NZ$1.8m (-16% vs pcp but noting margin increased ~NZ$0.2m).
� Gross margin of ~NZ$4.0m (+18% vs pcp), with a gross margin percentage of ~70% (up from pcp of ~61%)
� Total cash and receivables as at 30 June 2024 of ~NZ$14.0m, comprised of ~NZ$10.0m cash and ~NZ$4.0m receivables, with payables of NZ$1.1m and no debt.
� This cash position is flat against the cash position at 31 March 2024 and up from 31 December 2023 (NZ$8.0m).

Commentary
IKE CEO Glenn Milnes commented, "Q1 FY25 represented a very strong start to the new financial year with more significant subscription contracts closed with tier-1 North American customers that will continue to grow our subscription revenue run rates.

With respect to this core subscription revenue, since the late 2024 launch of our new IKE PoleForeman product Total Contract Value (TCV) closed has exceeded $12m from mostly tier-1 electric utilities in the U.S. market. The extremely sticky nature of these customers means that the life-time value of these contracts is significant. In total ~58 customers have now subscribed to this new platform, of which 34 were existing customers and 24 are new. This has translated to several thousands of new seat licenses, each representing a distribution network design engineer utilizing the product. We do expect more major customers to close in the near term and that IKE PoleForeman will ultimately be the standard for structural analysis in eight of the ten largest electric utilities in North America.
Subscription revenue in FY25 is expected to grow strongly at ~50% vs pcp to ~$16m per annum or greater. This outlook is based on the ongoing growth of our core IKE Office Pro subscription product and on the success of the launch of our new IKE PoleForeman product.
As previously stated, transaction revenue in FY25 is expected to grow against pcp but with a wider range of potential profiles and as such represents higher risk – both upside and downside. As a reminder of our business model, IKE generates additive transaction revenue, on top of base subscription revenue, from some customers as they engineer more network assets in our system.
Overall, we closed ~NZ$9m of contracts in Q1 FY25 across ~ 180 deals. Our customer retention rate is excellent at approximately 95% and our sales pipeline for new business is strong and growing.
Our margin profile also continued to grow this quarter to ~70% due to a continued shift in the product mix toward this higher margin subscription revenue. We expect this trend to continue.
Q2 and 2H FY25 are also an exciting period for IKE in terms product innovation with the expected introduction of new AI-based automation capabilities into existing and new IKE products. We have invested significantly into building automation specific to driving productivity outcomes for our customers for the assessment & design of their distribution networks and associated workflows, and we look forward to putting these capabilities into customers' hands.

Yikes....... Ike..... I was hoping for better

Total revenue up only 4% is not going to stop the cash burn.

Subscription revenue looking OK, However Transaction revenue is not delivering.....

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 15, 2024, 10:10 AMYikes....... Ike..... I was hoping for better

Total revenue up only 4% is not going to stop the cash burn.

Subscription revenue looking OK, However Transaction revenue is not delivering.....

They have fully explained the situation with transaction revenue, as have I, on several occasions. The timing of customers' transaction activity is out of IKE's control. It is the nature of transaction contracts, which is why IKE's focus is on increasing subscription contracts/revenue. Subscription revenue is set in concrete. Transaction revenue on the other hand is not. Obviously customers will at some point complete transactions on their networks, but the timing will always be flexible and often unpredictable, as there are so many customer related issues that can impact that.

There is so much information on the IKE website, and in every one of their presentations, that explains this far better than I can. Anyone investing in this company needs to get their head around how this works, because this is the nature of the subscription/transaction platform beast.

I am more than happy with how things are progressing. As long as subscriptions are increasing, which they are, the business will succeed. I am not worried about the transaction revenue figures across reporting periods - the revenue will come, we just never know exactly when. The day to start worrying, is the day IKE stops signing new contracts and/or the day subscription revenue starts declining. I do not for one moment see that ever happening.

Hi untamed, do you know why there doesn't seem to be much correlation between Platform subscription ARR and Seat Licenses? 

ARR up 40% whereas seat license up 207%.

Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 15, 2024, 11:52 AMHi untamed, do you know why there doesn't seem to be much correlation between Platform subscription ARR and Seat Licenses? 

ARR up 40% whereas seat license up 207%.

The ARR figure represents the annual recurring revenue received from subscriptions - so that is the "set in concrete" revenue from subscription customers.

I can't see where you got the seat figure info from? Is the 207% the increase in the number of seat licences?

The webinar starts at 1pm. Maybe you can submit a question and get it straight from the horse's mouth?

Just watched today's seminar.......I'm a lot less grumpy now.

A few of key points
1.) No Cap raise likely in FY25
2.) Still managing costs and on target to be EBIT positive 2H FY25.
3.) Addressable market is rapidly growing in importance with AI fuelled demand for data and renewable energy transmission.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 11, 2024, 10:17 AMI have also submitted my question. It will be interesting to see if they address them in the webinar. I have not had much luck, when submitting my questions live, so maybe we have a better chance submitting them ahead of time.

As much I like this company, and have faith in them as an investor, I am pretty damned pissed off that they chose to completely ignore my submitted question. It is beyond disrespectful to invite shareholders to submit questions ahead of time, then not have the decency to present said questions to the meeting.

I have emailed the dude I sent my question to, and have also emailed Glen Milnes directly.  Not happy  >:(

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 15, 2024, 11:59 AMThe ARR figure represents the annual recurring revenue received from subscriptions - so that is the "set in concrete" revenue from subscription customers.

I can't see where you got the seat figure info from? Is the 207% the increase in the number of seat licences?

The webinar starts at 1pm. Maybe you can submit a question and get it straight from the horse's mouth?

Mmh - had a look into their latest annual report, todays update and into the websession.

On the positive side - they did answer all of my questions (which is good), even if one obviously needs faith to believe the forward looking answers (like cashflow). Sort of wondering whether this is the first time where they are promising that things will better in the second HY? So far the cashflow does not look that flash, and looking at their historic data, they seem to write losses for some time ...

Good to get some metric for the benefits of their tools to the customers (they said that their customers would need only half the (engineering) staff to do a certain network upgrade. While this is not material to the big electricity and communication companies, it certainly is for the engineering teams, particularly if considering the expected growth in workload due to increased network load due to electrification and global warming.

I think I heard as well that there are other competitors offering similar services ... and it sounded like these are trying to push their solutions pretty hard. While IKE obviously thinks (or says), that their tools are better - that's probably something an investor should further investigate.

Overall - if we take their word as gospel, than clearly they are short before inflection point and things from here can only exponentially grow.

It's just - that's what every start up tells their investors, and - lets face it - many (once) start ups are now losing money for a long time - and so far is IKE no exception to this game.

Given that I went to the effort of adding them to my spreadsheet (and for what its worth, it says, they are currently too dear), I probably leave them on my watchlist (i.e. my view can change) - but so far I don't see what makes them more special than companies like e.g. WYN, PEB, CRP, EVO, Jade, RAK, GEN, GTK or any of the many other start ups hanging around for a long time, pleasing traders but living off their investors until these give up. 

Statistically seen do 19 out of 20 start ups bite the dust without returning the investor capital, but who knows ...

I certainly do wish IKE investors the best of luck. Who knows, maybe this will be the next XRO?

I have had a response from Glenn already, so he gets a thumbs up for a very prompt reply.

He apologised and explained that he wasn't given my question. He thanked me for my loyalty to IKE and asked me to send him my questions directly, and he will reply later tonight or tomorrow.

I have sent him a couple of questions, so watch this space. My faith is at least partially restored  ;)

OK, for anyone interested, Glen just sent me a comprehensive email, answering my questions and he is happy for me to share here. I have copied and pasted my questions, with his answers underneath. He has clarified a few things for me personally, especially re transaction revenue.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Firstly, as a shareholder I have always been impressed by the 95% customer retention rate. But out of curiosity, does IKE request "exit feedback" from these customers, to get an indication of why they did not renew their contracts? If so, is IKE actively looking at what you could do/change/improve, to encourage those customers to "stick" around?

Yes we do get exit feedback. 95% retention is a very strong number for our industry, and the primary reason customers do churn tends to be their specific profile – being small engineering firms that may have won a contract with a big utility or comms group who tell them they must use software to deliver their engineering services – so they buy IKE licenses.  When their contract ends with the utility or comms group, they naturally do not re-new with IKE – until their next contract is won.  We like taking this profitable business, but generally there is little we can do to influence the churn on and off.

The main point of confusion lies around the difference between subscription and transaction revenue - as in, what customer "tasks" create that revenue. To that end, could you please look at the following, and confirm whether my understanding is correct:

A) All customers are Subscription customers - paying a recurring (monthly?) subscription fee to use the IKE platform

Yes – but generally annual subscriptions  are paid upfront

B) Some customers also have a Transaction contract  - this revenue is created when a customer completes transactions on assets (poles) - some customers do not have the transaction contract?

Correct – less than 5% of our customer count, pay for transactions on top of their subscriptions – however this is an important business model for some parts of the market – where certain participants like to match their variable revenue (from say a Utility who is paying them 'per pole') with their own variable costs (paid to say IKE)

C) Today you mentioned "Seat licences" - which I have not heard before. Are these licences related to the transaction side of things?

No – Seat Licenses relate to Subscriptions and number of software users. 

So for example you have customer A with 10 seat licences - which represents 10 engineers designing or reviewing a section of a particular network?

That's correct – however they pay for each seat license in the form of annual subscription revenue.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I was very surprised to see that 5% transaction customers figure. I knew some customers were subscription only, but I had no idea it was the majority. Knowing that, reinforces my understanding that transaction revenue is not the focus. It is subscription revenue that is the backbone of the business. Transaction revenue is a bonus "add on."

Hopefully at least some of you have found his response helpful.

Thank for sharing @untamed. Do you know whether anyone has asked when IKE expect to be profitable? This is the only thing stopping be taking up a position.

Quote from: Buzz on Jul 15, 2024, 06:53 PMThank for sharing @untamed. Do you know whether anyone has asked when IKE expect to be profitable? This is the only thing stopping be taking up a position.

See post 160 point #2.... this comment from the CFO.

Quote from: Buzz on Jul 15, 2024, 06:53 PMThank for sharing @untamed. Do you know whether anyone has asked when IKE expect to be profitable? This is the only thing stopping be taking up a position.

I didn't ask that question, but others may have. To be honest, I still struggle to get my head around financial reporting/fundamentals. You would have a far better understanding of that than I ever will. It was mentioned in the presentation that they expect to be EBIT positive 2H FY25. I realise that doesn't necessarily mean "profitable" but it feels like progress to me.

I don't know how long we will have to wait to see "profitable" but I have no doubt whatsoever that it is coming. I am happy to sit on what I have (and may even add some when I am able) because I honestly cannot see this company failing. They are so well positioned right now, and they clearly know their market and what that market wants from them. They are my Mainland Cheese holding - good things take time. They would have to royally f**k up, to fall over. I cannot see them ever doing that. They have their finger on the pulse of the North American market, and my gut instinct tells me they know exactly what they are doing.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 15, 2024, 07:09 PMSee post 160 point #2.... this comment from the CFO.

Thanks, I did see that, but the number I'm looking for is not EBIT+, it NPAT+. Anyway, the next few months next reporting will be important.

For Bars Review
IKE reported a solid 1Q25 trading update, with the outlook for FY25 remaining positive. While total revenue for the quarter was slightly behind our expectations, sales momentum in Subscriptions continued, as segment revenue rose +29%. IKE's gross margin expanded to 70% in 1Q25 from 61% in 1Q24, reflecting a favourable shift in the product mix towards higher-margin Subscription revenue. The positive trend in margin is expected to continue for FY25, implying stronger-than-anticipated gross margins, relative to our prior expectation of ~69% for the period. We adjust our estimates accordingly and our blended spot valuation increases +5cps to NZ$0.88. IKE had NZ$10.0m in cash at the end of 1Q25, which we expect will be sufficient to achieve cash flow breakeven without external capital.

What's changed?
Earnings: Our EBITDA estimates increase by +NZ$0.3m, +NZ$0.5m, and +NZ$0.5m in FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively.
Blended spot valuation: Rises +6% to NZ$0.88, reflecting earnings changes and a re-rating in peer multiples.
Segment revenue trends persist
Total revenue for 1Q25 (NZ$5.8m) was slightly behind our expectation of NZ$6.0m, largely reflecting continued weakness in IKE's Transaction segment. Transaction revenue was NZ$1.8m, down -16% versus the pcp and -18% sequentially from 4Q24. By contrast, Subscription revenue grew by +29% versus the pcp and +14% sequentially from 4Q24, underpinned by the continued growth of IKE's core IKE Office Pro product and contract wins for its next-generation PoleForeman product. IKE now has 58 customers for its PoleForeman product, representing >3,700 subscribers and >NZ$12m in total contract value signed.

Positive outlook for the remainder of FY25
The outlook for the remainder of FY25 is positive for IKE due to: (1) strong growth expectations for Subscriptions, with management reiterating guidance for >+50% revenue growth, (2) further gross margin uplift from the continued shift in the product mix towards higher-margin Subscription revenue, and (3) the introduction of new AI capability into IKE's new and existing products. These factors should lay the platform for IKE to return to sustainable growth after a challenging FY24 period.

Cash position largely unchanged
IKE finished 1Q25 with NZ$10.0m of cash, down slightly from NZ$10.2m at the end of FY24. The moderate level of cash burn in the quarter is constructive to our view that IKE will achieve cash flow breakeven without requiring external capital. Based on our new forecasts, we expect IKE to achieve EBITDA breakeven in FY26 and cash flow breakeven in FY27, supported by continued revenue growth and gross margin expansion.

Earnings revisions
We make minor upwards revisions to our gross profit estimates following IKE's 1Q25 trading update. Our revenue and operating expense estimates are unchanged, with limited information in the 1Q25 release to change our view.

Quote from: Buzz on Jul 15, 2024, 07:20 PMThanks, I did see that, but the number I'm looking for is not EBIT+, it NPAT+. Anyway, the next few months next reporting will be important.

Should be common sense, but unfortunately it turns out that common sense is not that common after all :);

Anyway - while they made some statements re EBIT and cashflow ... I haven't heard them talking about NPAT. FWIIW - analyst consensus for them is to stop writing losses only in FY 2027 (twenty twenty-seven), which is obviously still some time to go. In this context I am not quite sure how they are going to get there without a further CapRise ... but hey, we will see.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 16, 2024, 09:55 AMShould be common sense, but unfortunately it turns out that common sense is not that common after all :);

Anyway - while they made some statements re EBIT and cashflow ... I haven't heard them talking about NPAT. FWIIW - analyst consensus for them is to stop writing losses only in FY 2027 (twenty twenty-seven), which is obviously still some time to go. In this context I am not quite sure how they are going to get there without a further CapRise ... but hey, we will see.

Sometimes we investors need to be proactive in getting the answers we seek. I'm not suggesting we all email Glenn directly. I think it was commendable that he responded to me so quickly yesterday, and was willing to address my questions, but it is probably best to use the investor related email address initially, and email Glenn if/when, we don't get what we need.

ir@ikegps.com

You have nothing to lose by asking the question.

Well that jump is unexpected on large volume. Are we missing something?

 :-[

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jul 23, 2024, 12:52 PMWell that jump is unexpected on large volume. Are we missing something?

No, but I bought a few more just before the price jumped, so I am happy. Glenn's response to my questions clarified a few things for me, especially with regard to transaction revenue. I think the current market optimism has simply given holders a bit more confidence to add some while they can.

If I had the money, I would buy more.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jul 23, 2024, 12:52 PMWell that jump is unexpected on large volume. Are we missing something?

Potential takeover?  Whatever it is my portfolio loves it!!

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 23, 2024, 01:13 PMPotential takeover?  Whatever it is my portfolio loves it!!

Better not be! That would really piss me off. I'm in this for the long term reward. I can't see them entertaining a takeover - this is their "baby" and they will want to see it to fruition too. Hopefully holders feel the same way.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 23, 2024, 01:20 PMBetter not be! That would really piss me off. I'm in this for the long term reward. I can't see them entertaining a takeover - this is their "baby" and they will want to see it to fruition too. Hopefully holders feel the same way.

Agree......

(mind you if they are talking ARV and WHS levels at $1.70 and that would help lessen my concerns! (lol))

Whatever.....  today's SP gain a great endorsement and it is onwards and upwards for IKE from here.

This is my OCA lol.
Average buy in price for me must be 75-80 cents. Watched it soar to $1.10 ish and held all the way down. Contemplated offloading last week due to lots of other opportunities out there at the moment, glad I didn't.

After todays suprise price / volume action, time for a chart

ike.png

Edit. Someone is definitely accumulating. There goes another 150,000 shares swapping hands.

Interesting. Sellers have basically dried up. Only 2 (@0.60). Against 20 buying bids

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 24, 2024, 09:40 AMInteresting. Sellers have basically dried up. Only 2 (@0.60). Against 20 buying bids

I would guess that most of last week's sells, were those who got in very cheaply, and saw an opportunity to take some profit. We might see more of that down the track, but in the meantime I reckon it will now be hard to buy.

Shamelessly "borrowed" from the other place. I don't subscribe to WSJ so can't read the full article, but this is precisely what IKE has been telling us for months. As I said previously, they would have to royally screw up, to not maximise the mammoth opportunity this presents.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This news appearing in WSJ 19/7 entitled: Get ready to pay more for electricity: As the grid becomes increasingly unstable, utilities ramp up spending
Two most exciting bits, perhaps:

"Utilities are expected to invest more than $165 billion a year in 2024 and 2025 to make significant upgrades and replacements, according to trade group Edison Electric Institute, more than any year since the group began collecting data. Many utilities are also ramping up spending on routine activities such as maintenance and tree-trimming to reduce outages, and, throughout the West, wildfires caused by fallen power lines."

"Utilities from Michigan to New York and beyond are planning their largest capital investments since World War II as the grid becomes more unstable as a result of age and extreme weather."

Go IKE! more good news

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435142

Highlights
 � Expectation for ~NZ$19m platform transaction revenue.
 � Revenues are expected to be delivered and recognised over the next ~36 months.
 � Supporting the delivery of a multi-year fiber and grid resiliency program across the network of a prominent utility in the southwestern United States.
 � The contract begins immediately, from the end of July 2024.
 � Another important step towards targeted EBITDA breakeven and continued high revenue growth.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 26, 2024, 10:04 AMGo IKE! more good news

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435142

Highlights
 � Expectation for ~NZ$19m platform transaction revenue.
 � Revenues are expected to be delivered and recognised over the next ~36 months.
 � Supporting the delivery of a multi-year fiber and grid resiliency program across the network of a prominent utility in the southwestern United States.
 � The contract begins immediately, from the end of July 2024.
 � Another important step towards targeted EBITDA breakeven and continued high revenue growth.

and no insider trading on this one eh!

Have to say i like the way this company keeps the market informed. Its very good on its regular updates (especially the good news)

I think I am now back in positive territory with this lot. So very pleased with this announcement.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 26, 2024, 10:04 AMGo IKE! more good news

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435142

Highlights
 � Expectation for ~NZ$19m platform transaction revenue.
 � Revenues are expected to be delivered and recognised over the next ~36 months.
 � Supporting the delivery of a multi-year fiber and grid resiliency program across the network of a prominent utility in the southwestern United States.
 � The contract begins immediately, from the end of July 2024.
 � Another important step towards targeted EBITDA breakeven and continued high revenue growth.

Great news! Sitting at $0.65 currently, with only one offer of 66,000 shares. Damn I wish I had the money to buy them  :'(

EDIT: and 26,000 of those gone already (which one of you is buying?  ;) 

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 26, 2024, 10:21 AMGreat news! Sitting at $0.65 currently, with only one offer of 66,000 shares. Damn I wish I had the money to buy them  :'(

EDIT: and 26,000 of those gone already (which one of you is buying?  ;) 

Guilty as charged..... added more this morning.

Next stop 80c....

Time for another pretty picture

ike.png

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 26, 2024, 10:26 AMGuilty as charged..... added more this morning.

Next stop 80c....

Only offer now is at 87c - and only 2380 of them. Wow.

Congratulations! Well done. I'm so jealous  ;D

(Are you going back to sweep that last offer up?  ;)  )

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 26, 2024, 10:30 AMOnly offer now is at 87c - and only 2380 of them. Wow.

Congratulations! Well done. I'm so jealous  ;D

(Are you going back to sweep that last offer up?  ;)  )

Those ones that come in at $0.68/69 didnt last long

And now, they are in trading halt.

Mmmm ... Sharesies says they are, but I don't see it on the NZX site.

EDIT: may have been a Sharesies issue - open again now.

For some time IKE has been on the 'risky' side of my otherwise boring/safe portfolio...but feeling vindicated today.

I'm in for the long haul. GLH's. Exciting times ahead.

IKE CEO Glenn Milnes commented, "We are excited to announce this significant product expansion with a longstanding partner, underscoring their confidence in our technology and solutions. This deal will strengthen our platform transaction revenue stream over the next several years, noting that these types of contracts require the customer to deliver network data to IKE and that the timing of associated revenue can vary based on customer execution.
 
 "Fiber build, grid resiliency and grid hardening is a major focus for the 3,000-plus utilities distributing power and commnunications across North America, and we expect this specific market tail wind to continue for the coming two or three decades. IKE's products have been built to drive productivity into the end-to-end deployment and grid resiliency process, and we remain focused on delivering exceptional value and customer experience to these important infrastructure groups."

Seems like someone kmew about this before it was announced

Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 26, 2024, 11:01 AMSeems like someone kmew about this before it was announced

What makes you say that?

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 26, 2024, 10:59 AMFor some time IKE has been on the 'risky' side of my otherwise boring/safe portfolio...but feeling vindicated today.

I'm in for the long haul. GLH's. Exciting times ahead.

IKE CEO Glenn Milnes commented, "We are excited to announce this significant product expansion with a longstanding partner, underscoring their confidence in our technology and solutions. This deal will strengthen our platform transaction revenue stream over the next several years, noting that these types of contracts require the customer to deliver network data to IKE and that the timing of associated revenue can vary based on customer execution.
 
 "Fiber build, grid resiliency and grid hardening is a major focus for the 3,000-plus utilities distributing power and commnunications across North America, and we expect this specific market tail wind to continue for the coming two or three decades. IKE's products have been built to drive productivity into the end-to-end deployment and grid resiliency process, and we remain focused on delivering exceptional value and customer experience to these important infrastructure groups."

It was part of my "risky" portfoloio. and I was ruing after buying in at $0.90. But like you saw this as long term so topped up a few times at $0.45. Have to say today I have a smile on my face. (and thats been a while coming with my portfolio!)

Expecting some profit taking soon to bring SP action back under control..

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 26, 2024, 10:59 AMFor some time IKE has been on the 'risky' side of my otherwise boring/safe portfolio...but feeling vindicated today.

I'm in for the long haul. GLH's. Exciting times ahead.

Me too. Ever since Lorraina (Percy) introduced me to IKE, I have seen the huge potential for success, and felt they were worth taking a chance on. My only regret is not having the ability to have bought more. I have bugger all (only 7000 shares), but better than nothing. So thanks Percy!

Exciting times ahead for sure.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 26, 2024, 11:06 AMWhat makes you say that?

See post #179

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 26, 2024, 11:11 AMSee post #179

I don't see anything there that would imply what you are suggesting.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 26, 2024, 11:27 AMI don't see anything there that would imply what you are suggesting.

How many times do you see a 15% increase in a SP on huge volumes on the back of no news?

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 26, 2024, 11:29 AMHow many times do you see a 15% increase in a SP on huge volumes on the back of no news?

Not too often, but with IKE it is not unheard of. Long term holders are always looking to buy more, so when sellers, looking to take a profit, show up, they are happy to pay for them.

Having said that, right now, the whole market is doing crazy stuff compared to a couple of weeks ago. The trades before the announcement were significantly less (and lower) than after it. You also have to consider that right now some people who got into IKE cheaply as a "lotto" ticket investment, with zero real interest in the company, are now more than likely profit taking, to invest elsewhere.

I don't see an issue, and clearly the NZX doesn't either, as the halt lasted about ten minutes at the most.

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 26, 2024, 11:07 AMIt was part of my "risky" portfoloio. and I was rueing after buying in at $0.90. But like you saw this as long term so topped up a few times at $0.45. Have to say today I have a smile on my face. (and thats been a while coming with my portfolio!)

Sometimes it pays off to double down....... but it's risky and takes care. Well done.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 26, 2024, 11:10 AMMe too. Ever since Lorraina (Percy) introduced me to IKE, I have seen the huge potential for success, and felt they were worth taking a chance on. My only regret is not having the ability to have bought more. I have bugger all (only 7000 shares), but better than nothing. So thanks Percy!

Exciting times ahead for sure.

At least you are underway and riding the IKE wave. IKE's SP could easily grow anything from 20 to 100% pa over the next 3 - 5yrs so you have a good start. All you have to do is to keep riding the wave. You also have the option of  possibly buying/adding more in increments as the SP rises and the information improves  (of course, give yourself a healthy  protective profit margin first.)   The future looks bright. Well done.

And yes, some profit taking going on today as some under 50c buyers exit or freehold..... but not me.... no profit taking....I'm a long term investor and happy to wait and watch. This one has much further to go..

A picture says a thousand words......

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 28, 2024, 08:02 AMA picture says a thousand words......

Once it gets back to $1.20 it's all blue sky stuff after that eh

Heading to $40m revenues and with improving margins should be on 6 times revenues multiple

That's a share price of $1.50 soon

For Bars update..

ikeGPS (IKE) has announced a major new Transactions contract, which is expected to generate ~NZ$19m of revenue over the next 36 months. The announcement of this contract, which represents ~68% of our cumulative Transactions revenue for FY25, FY26 and FY27, significantly de-risks our estimates over the next three years. Transaction revenue is inherently volatile and the key swing factor in IKE's performance. Although we leave our forecasts unchanged (as new contract wins were implicitly factored into our growth expectations) we now have an even stronger conviction that IKE will be able to (1) deliver significant revenue growth (+27% CAGR from FY24–FY27) and (2) reach EBITDA breakeven without external capital. Our blended spot valuation falls -1cps to NZ$0.87 due to a de-rating in peer multiples.

What's changed?
Blended spot valuation: Falls -1% due to a de-rating in peer multiples.
Details of the new NZ$19m contract
IKE has signed a contract with a prominent utility group based in the South West of the US to support a 'multi-year fiber and grid resiliency program.' The contract is expected to generate ~NZ$19m of revenue over the 36 months from the end of July 2024. It represents a positive shift in momentum for IKE's Transactions segment after a challenging FY24 that was affected by delays from IKE's major customers.

Transactions revenue estimates significantly de-risked, earnings risk to the upside
While we had anticipated a recovery in Transactions revenue from depressed levels in FY24, our estimates have now been significantly de-risked. The new contract represents ~68% of our cumulative Transactions revenue estimates for FY25, FY26 and FY27, and provides some much needed certainty to the market on the outlook for Transactions. We leave our Transactions revenue estimates unchanged over the next three years as at least one major contract win was already factored into our forecasts. However, earnings risk is now skewed to the upside, in our view, particularly in FY26 and FY27 as we expect revenue from the new contract to be weighted towards the back end of the 36 month period.

Outlook remains compelling
The outlook for IKE over the next 12 months is compelling, characterised by (1) robust revenue growth — we forecast +33% revenue growth in FY25, (2) potentially reaching the milestone of positive EBITDA in 2H25, and (3) the integration of AI into new and existing products. IKE is well positioned in a large and growing addressable market in North America, underpinned by the need to build grid resilience and capacity. We estimate that IKE has achieved ~8% penetration of its potential customer base, providing scope for significant future growth.

ikeGPS Launches the Next Generation of its AI-Powered Analytics Solution for Utility Poles

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ikegps-launches-next-generation-ai-120000468.html

If you click on the blue links in the article, it takes you to detailed info on the IKE website - for anyone who is interested in the geeky side of it.

ASM this morning, so will be interested to hear more about this.

Interesting that there were no questions submitted, either before or during the meeting. Feels a bit like a missed opportunity, but I actually couldn't think of anything to ask either.

Things continue to track positively, as expected, so I am happy.

I think Glenn needs to spend some time helping Alex with his public speaking skills though - that was pretty hard to listen to/stay engaged with.

This might help provide some perspective on just how huge IKE's potential market is, and the value they present to customers in terms of strengthening/storm proofing their networks. I'm not suggesting that a hurricane like this one, will not cause major damage - but if IKE can help customers reduce that risk, it will mean significantly lower recovery costs, and a much shorter time frame to get networks back up and running.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/tQxMTfetMjEnRL9u/

4 million homes without power. 4 million! (Current estimated population of NZ is 5,213,944)

From time to time I go and have a browse of the IKE website. As I have mentioned in the past, there is a wealth of information there. Of course, most of it is designed for potential and existing customers, but as an investor, I have found it incredibly useful. Whoever designed their website deserves a pat on the back in my humble opinion. One of the most comprehensive (but to the point and not cluttered) sites I have seen. If I were a potential customer I would be pretty impressed.

Anyway, I was just looking at the "Events" section here:

https://ikegps.com/events/

IKE certainly gets around, and it seems they take full advantage of every opportunity to ensure they have a presence in market related events, particularly conferences. One popped up on Facebook earlier today, which of course I cannot find now (that's Facebook for you) - but it was a presentation they are doing as part of an industry webinar, about how IKE can help reduce weather related risk etc. I don't see it mentioned on their website for some reason, and I don't remember all the details, but it is incredibly good timing, giving the recent, and current hurricane situations. I wish investors could register for something like that - we would get to see IKE from the perspective of customers/potential customers, which could be quite insightful.

Quote from: Untamed on Oct 10, 2024, 09:09 PMFrom time to time I go and have a browse of the IKE website. As I have mentioned in the past, there is a wealth of information there. Of course, most of it is designed for potential and existing customers, but as an investor, I have found it incredibly useful. Whoever designed their website deserves a pat on the back in my humble opinion. One of the most comprehensive (but to the point and not cluttered) sites I have seen. If I were a potential customer I would be pretty impressed.

Anyway, I was just looking at the "Events" section here:

https://ikegps.com/events/

IKE certainly gets around, and it seems they take full advantage of every opportunity to ensure they have a presence in market related events, particularly conferences. One popped up on Facebook earlier today, which of course I cannot find now (that's Facebook for you) - but it was a presentation they are doing as part of an industry webinar, about how IKE can help reduce weather related risk etc. I don't see it mentioned on their website for some reason, and I don't remember all the details, but it is incredibly good timing, giving the recent, and current hurricane situations. I wish investors could register for something like that - we would get to see IKE from the perspective of customers/potential customers, which could be quite insightful.

Still cant help but feel they are undervalued.

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 08:39 AMStill cant help but feel they are undervalued.

I agree. Maybe after these two major hurricanes, they will pick up some new customers? It would be very interesting to know whether any current customers in the storm areas, have already seen a positive result from their investment in IKE (in terms of reduced weather related risk).

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 08:39 AMStill cant help but feel they are undervalued.

Isn't that what holders (of any stock) always think? Otherwise they wouldn't hold, wouldn't they?

Looking at IKE ... while they may or may not have a useful tool for the utility industry  - so do many.

I used to work for decades in an industry providing products and services to utilities (like electricity suppliers and lines companies), transport (like railways) and public emergency services (like fire service and police) all around the world. To sell them something you need not just to have a good product, but you need detailed knowledge of the specific industry as well the right (long term) connections into the respective organisations. Bit like doing business with China. Personal connections and trust are often more important than the best product.

Getting into this trusted club of suppliers is very difficult - and takes often decades of investment.
I don't know, where IKE is on this journey, but doing it is generally very tough for start ups. And lets face it - it makes sense, customers prefer to buy from big organisation they know well and can trust. Significantly reduces the risk that they end up with solutions which won't be maintained or where the supplier hasn't got the means to fix any of the inevitable issues.

So - how do you measure the "value" of this start up? (scenario 1) By its earning potential if everything goes right and all relevant utilities need the product and only can buy it from IKE? Or (scenario 2) do you look at its likely uptake and earnings potential (as compared to a statistically relevant sample of other start ups)?

I am sure the answer related to them being undervalued would be quite different between scenario one and scenario two. 

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 09:19 AMIsn't that what holders (of any stock) always think? Otherwise they wouldn't hold, wouldn't they?

Looking at IKE ... while they may or may not have a useful tool for the utility industry  - so do many.

I used to work for decades in an industry providing products and services to utilities (like electricity suppliers and lines companies), transport (like railways) and public emergency services (like fire service and police) all around the world. To sell them something you need not just to have a good product, but you need detailed knowledge of the specific industry as well the right (long term) connections into the respective organisations. Bit like doing business with China. Personal connections and trust are often more important than the best product.

Getting into this trusted club of suppliers is very difficult - and takes often decades of investment.
I don't know, where IKE is on this journey, but doing it is generally very tough for start ups. And lets face it - it makes sense, customers prefer to buy from big organisation they know well and can trust. Significantly reduces the risk that they end up with solutions which won't be maintained or where the supplier hasn't got the means to fix any of the inevitable issues.

So - how do you measure the "value" of this start up? (scenario 1) By its earning potential if everything goes right and all relevant utilities need the product and only can buy it from IKE? Or (scenario 2) do you look at its likely uptake and earnings potential (as compared to a statistically relevant sample of other start ups)?

I am sure the answer related to them being undervalued would be quite different between scenario one and scenario two. 

Its probably a mix of both scenarios
Its the earnings potential if things keep going right - doesn't mean all things. They just need to be on the right side of the ledger. And not all utilities. Just a decent share. In fact if there was market dominance the only possible path is down hill. And scenario 2 which is likely uptake and earnings potential . Looking at a statistically relevant sample isn't necessarily useful. We all know start ups are risky when you look at the numbers. So you need to dig under the numbers at the product, the Directors, the CEO, the staff and the market. And when i look at Ike I like what I see.

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 09:26 AMIts probably a mix of both scenarios
Its the earnings potential if things keep going right - doesn't mean all things. They just need to be on the right side of the ledger. And not all utilities. Just a decent share. In fact if there was market dominance the only possible path is down hill. And scenario 2 which is likely uptake and earnings potential . Looking at a statistically relevant sample isn't necessarily useful. We all know start ups are risky when you look at the numbers. So you need to dig under the numbers at the product, the Directors, the CEO, the staff and the market. And when i look at Ike I like what I see.

Just wondering whether you could specify "I like what I see" a bit further.

I am sure we both have seen during our time as investors plenty of start ups with always nicely sold ideas, more or less successful capital rises, early product implementations and following that either a decade long battle (supported by regular shareholder handouts) or an earlier or later termination. Well, that's 19 out of 20 start ups. The last 5% are surviving longer, some of these are doing really well on the stock exchange and an even smaller number starts to not just survive but really return capital back to their investors.

Not sure I remember lots of successful start ups selling to utilities, though. Do you?

Just want to learn and understand what you think IKE has, what the others haven't.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 10:33 AMJust wondering whether you could specify "I like what I see" a bit further.

I am sure we both have seen during our time as investors plenty of start ups with always nicely sold ideas, more or less successful capital rises, early product implementations and following that either a decade long battle (supported by regular shareholder handouts) or an earlier or later termination. Well, that's 19 out of 20 start ups. The last 5% are surviving longer, some of these are doing really well on the stock exchange and an even smaller number starts to not just survive but really return capital back to their investors.

Not sure I remember lots of successful start ups selling to utilities, though. Do you?

Just want to learn and understand what you think IKE has, what the others haven't.

Here is the start of your learning https://ikegps.com.

The thing with utilities is that they are  essentially boring things that sit around for donkeys years and no one pays them much attention (Unlike say FMCG). But you traditionally need human labour to keep an eye on them. And hunan labour is getting more and more expensive. So you want to optimise what you get out of humans while letting technology do the donkey work. So when someone comes along and has offerings that provide solutions to known problems then that gets my attention. And the known problem is how do you service and maintain boring old things like power poles

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 10:49 AMHere is the start of your learning https://ikegps.com.

The thing with utilities is that they are  essentially boring things that sit around for donkeys years and no one pays them much attention (Unlike say FMCG). But you traditionally need human labour to keep an eye on them. And hunan labour is getting more and more expensive. So you want to optimise what you get out of humans while letting technology do the donkey work. So when someone comes along and has offerings that provide solutions to known problems then that gets my attention. And the known problem is how do you service and maintain boring old things like power poles

I do understand the need for network maintenance and the desire to reduce human involvement. As I said - I used to work in an industry supporting utilities all over the world and do understand their problems.

A good process, good training and discipline typically solves the issues they have and reduces the failure rate.

And yes, tools (potentially like the ones provided by IKEGPS) can help to support such a process (if you have one). However - it is not hard to implement stuff like that using any good repository and some spreadsheet applications. Just look around the globe - plenty (well, near all of them) of regions do quite well running their lines without IKE tools, and the US is really not a good example for a country with a well run network. The hard thing is not finding and using a tool to support a process, but the hard thing is to implement a process in the first place and make sure it is followed. If you haven't managed to do that, than any tool will only turn a manually created mess into an automated mess.

So - I still don't see how IKE will conquer the world of US line companies ... I guess if their tools are not just good, but profitable, then there will be tens of local competitors around who can do the same thing (remember - you just need a good repository, a spreadsheet application and lots of discipline to make sure people document what they did and follow the rules), and most of them will have better connections to the US line companies than a start up from far away New Zealand.
 
But hey, I do wish IKE and its investors all the best. I really do. I am just wondering what their chances are that IKE ends up in the 5% of successful start ups vs in the 95% of failures.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 11:35 AMI do understand the need for network maintenance and the desire to reduce human involvement. As I said - I used to work in an industry supporting utilities all over the world and do understand their problems.

A good process, good training and discipline typically solves the issues they have and reduces the failure rate.

And yes, tools (potentially like the ones provided by IKEGPS) can help to support such a process (if you have one). However - it is not hard to implement stuff like that using any good repository and some spreadsheet applications. Just look around the globe - plenty (well, near all of them) of regions do quite well running their lines without IKE tools, and the US is really not a good example for a country with a well run network. The hard thing is not finding and using a tool to support a process, but the hard thing is to implement a process in the first place and make sure it is followed. If you haven't managed to do that, than any tool will only turn a manually created mess into an automated mess.

So - I still don't see how IKE will conquer the world of US line companies ... I guess if their tools are not just good, but profitable, then there will be tens of local competitors around who can do the same thing (remember - you just need a good repository, a spreadsheet application and lots of discipline to make sure people document what they did and follow the rules), and most of them will have better connections to the US line companies than a start up from far away New Zealand.
 
But hey, I do wish IKE and its investors all the best. I really do. I am just wondering what their chances are that IKE ends up in the 5% of successful start ups vs in the 95% of failures.

I'm old enough to remember the days when we did math on an abacus. Then we progressed to a slide rule. Then calculators came out. Then spread sheets came out. And IKE now has a set of tools for doing things.

I have no expectation that it will conquer the world. I just reckon it will grow, be profitable, pay a dividend and then be ripe for a takeover.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 10:33 AMJust wondering whether you could specify "I like what I see" a bit further.

I am sure we both have seen during our time as investors plenty of start ups with always nicely sold ideas, more or less successful capital rises, early product implementations and following that either a decade long battle (supported by regular shareholder handouts) or an earlier or later termination. Well, that's 19 out of 20 start ups. The last 5% are surviving longer, some of these are doing really well on the stock exchange and an even smaller number starts to not just survive but really return capital back to their investors.

Not sure I remember lots of successful start ups selling to utilities, though. Do you?

Just want to learn and understand what you think IKE has, what the others haven't.

IJE list Jul 2014.

No debt. $10m in cash. Receivables exceed payables by $3,9m At what point do you consider they are no longer a "start up"

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 03:22 PMIJE list Jul 2014.

No debt. $10m in cash. Receivables exceed payables by $3,9m At what point do you consider they are no longer a "start up"

Quite easy - they are not longer a start up when they are able to demonstrate that they can sustain themselves for a prolonged period of time without he need to eat into their reserves. Lets call that "Break even" - shall we? IKE so far had losses in every year I could get my hands on (2024, 2023, 2022 and 2020 - not sure, what happened in 2021).

Before Break Even it's just a question of time when they need their next CR.

And yes, just in case you ask  - I consider e.g. PEB (I know, different industry) as an outstanding example for an eternal start up. They are  specialised on making up stories which pull money out of shareholders pockets and they live of that money. Not saying IKE is in the same game, but I do see the potential ...

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 03:31 PMQuite easy - they are not longer a start up when they are able to demonstrate that they can sustain themselves for a prolonged period of time without he need to eat into their reserves. Lets call that "Break even" - shall we?

Before that point it's just a question of time when they need their next CR.

So, Synliat, for example is a "start up"

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 03:31 PMQuite easy - they are not longer a start up when they are able to demonstrate that they can sustain themselves for a prolonged period of time without he need to eat into their reserves. Lets call that "Break even" - shall we?

Before that point it's just a question of time when they need their next CR.

What's the sample of start ups that go into the 95/5% stat you quote? Do you think the probabilities still apply for a fairly advanced start up like Ike, or could the chance of success be drifting well into the double figures by now? Maybe even over 50%?

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 12:36 PMI'm old enough to remember the days when we did math on an abacus.

Wow. Mr Methusalem, I presume?

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 12:36 PMThen we progressed to a slide rule.

Slide ruler was invented in 1620 by Edmund Gunter of Oxford. I am surprised that you still remember this time, but I guess given your then amazing age its forgivable that you don't understand that slide rulers don't replace the abacus - they solved a different mathematical problem (dividing and multiplying vs. adding and subtracting).

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 12:36 PM....

Then calculators came out. Then spread sheets came out. And IKE now has a set of tools for doing things.

I have no expectation that it will conquer the world. I just reckon it will grow, be profitable, pay a dividend and then be ripe for a takeover.

What I am saying is - its not rocket science to do the maths (or write the SW). If it is profitable, every John, Dick and Harry will. However - the big problem for some of the utilities is lack of process and lack of discipline. Obviously - a solvable problem, but none where a SW tool will help.

Will they grow and be profitable? Well, I do not know, and you don't either. Too small numbers so far - and lets face it, some of the growth numbers look already like running out of puff. In this phase of the business sales numbers they should go up exponentially, and they don't. But again - good luck!

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 04:03 PMWow. Mr Methusalem, I presume?

Slide ruler was invented in 1620 by Edmund Gunter of Oxford. I am surprised that you still remember this time, but I guess given your then amazing age its forgivable that you don't understand that slide rulers don't replace the abacus - they solved a different mathematical problem (dividing and multiplying vs. adding and subtracting).

What I am saying is - its not rocket science to do the maths (or write the SW). If it is profitable, every John, Dick and Harry will. However - the big problem for some of the utilities is lack of process and lack of discipline. Obviously - a solvable problem, but none where a SW tool will help.

Will they grow and be profitable? Well, I do not know, and you don't either. Too small numbers so far - and lets face it, some of the growth numbers look already like running out of puff. In this phase of the business sales numbers they should go up exponentially, and they don't. But again - good luck!

I suppose you didnt use coloured rods then?

Slide rule allows advanced maths over the abacus. (of course I dont remember that far back. But i'm equally capable of using google)

Just as well IKI have also entered the education game as well.

Who knows what tommorow will bring. I stay invested because i expect them to grow. If information comes to light that changes this view I'll exit my position.

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 11, 2024, 03:32 PMSo, Synliat, for example is a "start up"

It is Synlait. And it depends on how you define "prolonged time". Synlait had at least 8 profitable years (2014 to 2022) and just screwed up afterwards. That's not a start up, but yes, in a way you could consider them as having returned to Start up - Status (will they live or will they die?), and a pretty broken one as well.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2024, 04:12 PMIt is Synlait. And it depends on how you define "prolonged time". Synlait had at least 8 profitable years (2014 to 2022) and just screwed up afterwards. That's not a start up, but yes, in a way you could consider them as having returned to Start up - Status (will they live or will they die?), and a pretty broken one as well.

My broad view of IKE is that is no longer a start up. But is in its infancy.

Quote from: mfd on Oct 11, 2024, 03:42 PMWhat's the sample of start ups that go into the 95/5% stat you quote? Do you think the probabilities still apply for a fairly advanced start up like Ike, or could the chance of success be drifting well into the double figures by now? Maybe even over 50%?

"Advanced start up" - I like that expression.

And yes, it is a good question. I remember the 95/5 rule mentions as well a 2 year time window.

No idea how the stats looks like for "advanced start ups", but I would be surprised if an extension of the start up status would mean an increase of the likelihood to turn profitable. It just means that they are still finding enough (old or new) investors happy to keep drip feeding them.

And yes, there are examples for "advanced start ups" turning profitable after decades of nurturing. Amazon was one of these examples, and Xero (closer to us) might have scratched the corner with FY24. But lets face it - we are now talking about one out of ten thousands or so. Does IKE belong into this group? I don't know.

BP, with all due respect, I don't think you fully understand exactly what IKE does. Please go and have a look at the website. I have posted many links over time, to some very interesting technical information, about their tools and processes. It is a hell of a lot more than simply "spreadsheets" OR even just about "maintenance and reducing manpower." There is enough information on their site, including demo videos, and case studies to keep you occupied for at least an hour. I get that not every investor/holder wants to know the details - they just want to make money - but once you know the details for this company, you might understand why some of us are invested.

I am not naive enough to believe there are any guarantees. But I have done my due diligence, and I have made an effort to get my head around this company and what they do. I also believe that they know exactly what they are doing. They understand the market very, very well, and they have been working with the industries they support, to provide the tools and services they need/want. How else do you think they managed to land contracts for "8 of the 10 largest Investor-Owned Utilities ("IOUs") in North America, all -multi-billion dollar businesses?"

They landed those customers because they know what they are doing, and I don't think people appreciate the significance of that achievement.

Quote from: Untamed on Oct 11, 2024, 05:30 PMBP, with all due respect, I don't think you fully understand exactly what IKE does. Please go and have a look at the website. I have posted many links over time, to some very interesting technical information, about their tools and processes. It is a hell of a lot more than simply "spreadsheets" OR even just about "maintenance and reducing manpower." There is enough information on their site, including demo videos, and case studies to keep you occupied for at least an hour. I get that not every investor/holder wants to know the details - they just want to make money - but once you know the details for this company, you might understand why some of us are invested.

I am not naive enough to believe there are any guarantees. But I have done my due diligence, and I have made an effort to get my head around this company and what they do. I also believe that they know exactly what they are doing. They understand the market very, very well, and they have been working with the industries they support, to provide the tools and services they need/want. How else do you think they managed to land contracts for "8 of the 10 largest Investor-Owned Utilities ("IOUs") in North America, all -multi-billion dollar businesses?"

They landed those customers because they know what they are doing, and I don't think people appreciate the significance of that achievement.

Hi Untamed, I guess we just reached this point where I happen to have a different point of view than you do on a stock you are holding, and I am not.

I know from experience - it can hurt if one put ones money where ones mouth is, buys into a stock, and then come others and have a different point of view.

I understand as well that you have heart blood in this discussion (you hold), while I don't. Actually - the only reason for my posts in this thread is to share some of my experiences and to help others to get maybe a bit more balanced view. Call it "giving back"- there have been the days when I benefitted from the posts of more experienced investors on (then) sharetrader.

Looking into my (relevant) experiences - I do have an electrical engineering degree and used to work basically all my professional life in communications with and for customers running "lines" all around the country or dependant on lines to communicate (yes, this includes line companies, but as well railways, other transport and emergency services - they all rely on communication lines as well and they have all the related issues) - so, I probably understand their situation and issues quite well.

I am quite confident that my background allows me to get an understanding of what problems IKE tries to solve and how they are trying to achieve that.

Does not mean that I can predict the future (nor can anybody else) and does not mean either that I am a specialist for IKE Pole man or any of their other tools. I am not.

It just means that I might have more relevant associations when reading their stuff than many others on this thread. Which can be a good or a bad thing. How do they say - ignorance is bliss?

On a different note - as an investor I have seen over decades many Start Ups with well packaged ideas jump high and far but still landing short. Haven't we all?

And back to my experiences with utilities ... I know it is harder for a new player to bring a new product or tool into this environment, than into many other industries. The customers are very conservative, and hey - there might be a good reason for that.

As an engineer I can reasonably well assess the complexity of tools. Used to run departments developing comparable stuff (as a tool, not a product). I am sure that the companies which supply the relevant North American lines companies for decades with technology and tools are quite able to do the same thing as IKE (if it makes sense), and I am sure as well, that they would find it easier than IKE to ramp them up and become profitable on that new product line.

Well, that's basically it. What I am saying is not that IKE won't be successful, I am just saying, it might be harder than some of the enthused investors in this thread seem to assume - and, the odds to succeed are against them (which doesn't mean they can't win, it just means, its less likely then the other outcome).

I guess if I would invest into them (I don't), than I would at least make sure that an undesirable financial outcome won't hurt me. I guess that's it.

Best wishes and good luck to all IKE investors.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 12, 2024, 12:06 PMHi Untamed, I guess we just reached this point where I happen to have a different point of view than you do on a stock you are holding, and I am not.
<snip>

Thank you for expanding on your background and experience in the sector. I am happy to retract my comment about your understanding of what IKE does, as clearly, that was incorrect. My apologies.

Please do not be concerned about me, or my investment in IKE. IKE has always been my "speculative" holding, and I bought into it, knowing full well I could lose my investment. When I initially invested, I guess I looked at it as my "lotto ticket" holding - I might win, or I may very well lose the lost. I no longer see it quite that way however. Of course I am still hopeful that IKE will reward me for my patience, at some point down the track. But I am actually invested now, not purely for financial reasons, but because I am now genuinely interested in the company and what they do. I can see real potential, and I think they will do well over time. But they are a holding that requires patience. I'm happy to be patient. If it pays off, that will be great. If it doesn't, I always knew and accepted that was a possibility.

IKE is a damned site more "interesting" holding, than anything else I hold. Sometimes you have to have some fun with your investing. Calculated risk and all that. Time will tell  ;)

I am curious to hear your thoughts Untamed on other options for IKE's clients.  Who are IKE's competitors?  The large ERP systems do not natively offer the features offered by IKE so it would have to be bespoke / purpose built solutions.  I didn't come across anything as comprehensive as this when I worked with a lines company.

Looking at their product it makes sense - I have designed, built and implemented computer systems to track off-site assets; whether they be computer equipment rentals, bar dispensing systems, vending machines and fridges for drinks.  It's easy to get it wrong.  IKE seem to have a good product and a growing subscriber base, and the case studies seem to be 'proof of the pudding'.

It sounds like the only objection is that they are a new player.  So it would be good to hear of existing alternative suppliers, if any, who offer the same range of services as IKE.

I like the fact unearned revenue is increasing, as are subscription revenues and the number of customers.  But it is still in its infancy and FY25 will be an important year for IKE - the biggest question being how long before they are cash flow positive?

Quote from: Ferg on Oct 15, 2024, 02:09 PMI am curious to hear your thoughts Untamed on other options for IKE's clients.  Who are IKE's competitors?

The large ERP systems do not natively offer the features offered by IKE so it would have to be bespoke / purpose built solutions.  I didn't come across anything as comprehensive as this when I worked with a lines company.

Glen has always been very upfront when asked that question during webinars etc. He has confirmed that there are a couple of competitors in the market, but I cannot recall whether he ever named them or not. I think the question was asked again at the ASM the other day. If the presentation is still available I will have another look later.

QuoteLooking at their product it makes sense - I have designed, built and implemented computer systems to track off-site assets; whether they be computer equipment rentals, bar dispensing systems, vending machines and fridges for drinks.  It's easy to get it wrong.  IKE seem to have a good product and a growing subscriber base, and the case studies seem to be 'proof of the pudding'.

Have you had a look at the demo videos on the website? I would be really interested in hearing your opinion, after seeing their software "tools" in use. The case studies are proof of the pudding in my opinion, as is the fact that IKE has 8 of the top 10 largest IOUs "on their books." That is no mean feat.

QuoteIt sounds like the only objection is that they are a new player.

Which those of us who hold, knew when we decided to invest. As I said in reply to BP above, I am under no illusions about that. Having said that, I no longer consider IKE to be a "start up" company. I think they have moved some distance beyond that, but I guess that depends on how people define "start up." I think IKE have proven themselves to be a professional, switched on company, with a high level of expertise and an excellent handle on the market they are serving. They are making forward progress, have no debt (and do not need a capital raise anytime soon, as confirmed by Glen), subscription and transaction revenue is increasing, and they continue to sign new contracts. The sector(s) they serve, are tough sells by nature. Glen has mentioned this several times in the past. They traditionally very conservative (as BP said), so IKE has always made it clear that patience is required. I don't see that as being a negative, or an indication that IKE isn't, or won't be, a successful company. I think they are a "Mainland Cheese" type of holding, and I am ok with that.

As for when they might be cash flow positive - who knows? Nobody has ever asked that question during webinars - not that I can recall anyway. Maybe that is a question for next time. I feel confident though, that IKE will get there sooner rather than later.

I will look for further info on competitors later when I have time. Will post back if/when I find anything.

 EDIT: it is actually a transcript of Q&A I need, but I can't find that anywhere unfortunately

Thanks for that.  I did look at their demos.  What I like is they offer a range of services, including DB&M (design, build & maintenance) as well as mapping out 'as built' networks, and also regulatory/compliance checks etc.  I agree their list of clients is impressive which is no small feat.

Quote from: Untamed on Oct 15, 2024, 03:52 PM.......As for when they might be cash flow positive - who knows?

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 15, 2024, 01:35 PMJust watched today's seminar.......
A few of key points
1.) No Cap raise likely in FY25
2.) Still managing costs and on target to be EBIT positive 2H FY25.......

FB were more conservative and estimate cash flow positive in FY 26/7

Quote from: Left Field on Oct 15, 2024, 05:29 PMFB were more conservative and estimate cash flow positive in FY 26/7

I can live with that  ;)

I haven't been able to find a transcript of any Q&As from recent presentations unfortunately, but Google threw up an "Intelligent Investor" interview with Glenn, from back in 2021, which is obviously out of date now, but this bit was interesting, and relevant to our discussion about competitors:

QuoteHow do you go about customer acquisition, I imagine with these companies it's not just buying ads on Google?

No. Alan, you've got to have something of a good sense of humour to sell into this market. Electric utilities are very defensive, understandably, given the critical services that they provide. They're very risk averse and they're obsessed with safety and network reliability. Changing work practices and adopting a platform like IKE is not something that they do quickly or without a lot of assessment. We sell and deliver directly, we think that's a really important part of what we do, we deliver a really great customer experience directly into these groups. It takes some time to win these businesses on the electric utilities side.

The communications market, however, moves much faster. All they care about is getting their fibre deployed as fast as possible, they're in a competitive situation to get a fibre network deployed. We dramatically speed up aspects of this process for them and the sale cycle is much faster as a consequence.

Do you have direct competitors or are you blazing a new trail in these industries?

There's parts of technology that are getting introduced that quasi-compete with IKE. But mostly, we're truly replacing existing engineering practices. All of these groups, they're extremely good at what they do but they can be quite antiquated with certain parts of their workflow and their use of technology. It's harder than it sounds to change these really large organisations from doing things one way to doing another, but typically we are just replacing manual work practices.

Does that mean you don't have direct competitors?

No one at the moment is doing what we're doing in terms of an end-to-end solution for the collection analysis and management of power pole information. There's really innovative things happening with technologies like drones, to go and fly assets. We try to be the analysis engine that can work with any field technologies and field data collection. The other competitors that we face in the market tend to be private equity-backed national engineering companies that are looking to build a technology platform to speed up their own workflow so they can sell more of their engineering services, but they're less about selling – we're seeking to sell a platform to the entire industry to power the whole industry which is how we are differentiated.

We are 3 years down the track from there now, so maybe some of those engineering firms would now be considered "competitors." We will have to ask that question at the next presentation. Or, I could always email Glenn again. He was really helpful last time, and did say he is always happy to answer questions. Maybe I will get brave and do that  ;)

EDIT: Just saw this - I did not know this! Very interesting.

QuoteYou said the company started in New Zealand. What was the original conception and the original technology that you've brought with you, that you invented?

It's really interesting, like a lot of technology companies the business was originally started by a telecommunications engineer that was doing a lot of fieldwork in Europe and he came back to New Zealand and built a hardware device called the IKE Device and it combined a range of sensors to be able to let you – at the time, it had a laser and a camera and compass and inclinometers and it would let you take a photograph of something that you were far away from and give the position of the target rather than the position of where you're standing. It actually got picked up by the US military and the United States Army Corps of Engineers, so that's about a 60,000-strong government engineering group. That was the original customer base, so it was used for managing critical infrastructure for the Army Corps...

Just take us through that again. The IKE Device took a picture of a pole or something in the distance and it could tell you where it was or the position of it?

Correct, it would give you a photograph and it would tell you where that asset was...

Using GPS?

Yeah – Iraq and Afghanistan, they'd go in after events and go in and do the engineering assessment and be able to take photographs of things that were far away from them. The origins of the company was as a hardware business, we then began to sell to some electric utilities and some telecommunications companies.

Thanks for sharing this Lorraina.

https://www.thepress.co.nz/a/business/350455366/us-storms-blow-more-business-towards-kiwi-power-pole-tech-company-ikegps?lid=a17gwbmovt0a&utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the_press_digi_weekday_bulletin?_ptid={kpdx}AAAAnHrZeIPzXgoKZ283ZzJTVERwYRIQbTJkcWZ6MWhqYXF4MndobRoMRVhJRFlGRzlQR0tMIiUxODBpZzNvMDhjLTAwMDAzNGtzMnVuOG92cGkwczkwNnBoamxjKhRydW5Kc0E4T0U0QVFCSkIyTjEwMlISdi1fAPAZbGtib25oMzN5Wg4xMTkuMjI0LjY1LjEzNmIDZG1zaIKAy7gGcBh4CA

The comment about "fearsome" competition is pretty emotive, but the article didn't offer any expansion on that claim. Maybe they were simply labelling it that way because those companies are huge, not because they actually are competing with IKE? So far, I have seen no actual evidence, anywhere, that any of these companies are providing the same tools and service as IKE, OR, that they are taking business from them. I'm happy to accept it is a real possibility, but I'd like to see some proof.

QuoteikeGPS 1H FY25 Performance Update Notification

21/10/2024, 08:30 NZDT, MKTUPDTE

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to announce it will release its performance update for the six-month period to 30 September 2024 (1H FY25) on Thursday, 24 October 2024.
 
 The Company will discuss the results on a webinar with CEO Glenn Milnes at 9:30am AEDT/11:30am NZDT on the same day of the release – Thursday, 24 October 2024.
 
 Registration for the investor webinar is available via the link below:
 https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_R4mMjX3qRKi3XLOcDtpCjA
 
 Questions can be pre-submitted to simon@nwrcommunications.com.au or asked via the Q&A function during the webinar. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

Here is your opportunity to ask whatever questions you have. I emailed Glenn the other day, to ask a couple of questions - around competitors and profitability. No reply as yet. If I don't hear back from him before the webinar, I will submit them there too.

Quote from: Untamed on Oct 21, 2024, 02:13 PMHere is your opportunity to ask whatever questions you have. I emailed Glenn the other day, to ask a couple of questions - around competitors and profitability. No reply as yet. If I don't hear back from him before the webinar, I will submit them there too.

Pretty sure he won't tell you anything about profitability before the conference, unless you expect him to spread insider info :) ;

Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 21, 2024, 03:28 PMPretty sure he won't tell you anything about profitability before the conference, unless you expect him to spread insider info :) ;

I realise that. I wasn't aware of the results webinar at the time I emailed him.

Once again, Glenn has been very willing to respond to my email, and is happy for me to share here.

Hi Carren

Thanks for the email and your support as an IKE shareholder.
Quick comments on the below as am currently flying to the east coast.

• The journalist used the words 'fearsome competition' rather than us.  However it is a reality that we compete with the largest industrial tech companies in the world to win these massive electric utility companies as customers.  So, while we are always building a differentiation strategy, it's true that we need to be at a certain scale to be a legitimate partner / supplier.  The scale of this industry in the US can be hard for some folk to comprehend

• Profitability: we could be profitable tomorrow if we wanted to be.  However the long term value of winning and then retaining these very large utility customers is so significant, our view is that we need to continue to invest in customer acquisition and also product-extensions – that increases annual revenue per customer.  We can balance these items on short notice but at present we have a balance sheet / investment backing that supports growth vs the former.

Hope this helps
Glenn


I can tell you this. A CEO who is willing to reply to emails from ordinary people/small investors, who is transparent and honest in his responses, gets a thumbs up from me.  I am satisfied with his responses to both of my questions. They show that IKE is grounded in reality while at the same time, still being very focussed on achieving their goals of gaining more and more customers, especially the big guys, and becoming the standard for these sectors.

Looking forward to tomorrow's webinar.

Latest update out

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/430318.pdf


I try my best to get enthused over IKE but my chart monitoring it makes it hard to be enthusiastic

The line just doesn't seem to line up with the hype they churn out .....huge growth, macro tailwinds, AI enhanced blah blah

Maybe I just don't get it

Sorry untamed

IMG_5953.png

Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 24, 2024, 09:25 AMLatest update out

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/430318.pdf


I try my best to get enthused over IKE but my chart monitoring it makes it hard to be enthusiastic

The line just doesn't seem to line up with the hype they churn out .....huge growth, macro tailwinds, AI enhanced blah blah

Maybe I just don't get it

Sorry untamed

IMG_5953.png

Over all trend is up, along with their other metrics

Quote from: winnerMaybe I just don't get it

Sorry untamed

No need to be sorry, but I will admit, I do think that's the case  ;)

Having said that, you are an experienced investor with many years of investing behind you. I am not. You understand, and use charts to support your decision making. Charts make zero sense to me, so I don't base my investing decisions on them.

Who is right? Does it even matter? Investing is not a competitive sport for me. I don't need to be right about anything. I hope I am right about IKE, but only time will tell. I think this is a positive result, and I am more than happy with it. I agree with Glenn's comments in his email too. As much as I would love to see IKE be profitable  - he is right.

QuoteProfitability: we could be profitable tomorrow if we wanted to be.  However the long term value of winning and then retaining these very large utility customers is so significant, our view is that we need to continue to invest in customer acquisition and also product-extensions – that increases annual revenue per customer.  We can balance these items on short notice but at present we have a balance sheet / investment backing that supports growth vs the former.

As an investor, I support this decision.

Some takeaways from the webinar, that make me happy

• 179% increase in seat licences in last year
• There are an estimated 10,000,000 current double wood vulnerabilities - easy to see the value of their Double Wood Product
• Picking up around 1.5 new customers a week
• Flipped one of the 5 largest IOUs from another competitor
• Customer Council - this is a smart initiative on IKE's part. Customers are treated as "partners" and IKE gets insight into exactly what customers need/want, straight from the horse's mouth. Glenn mentioned the council has requested a new product (or maybe a variation of an existing one - couldn't quite pick that up) and IKE is committed to exploring that.

I see nothing in this report that isn't positive. It is a good result.

Thanks Untamed for your input on this. I like what I am seeing and look forward to the projected growth going forward. Still lots of work to be done.

This is not an investment for everyone as everyone has a different Philosophy on their investing strategies.

This is for the patient investor just like ATM was for me when I invested in 2010. Sometimes you just need to research and believe to be rewarded.

For Bars review

ikeGPS (IKE) announced good progress in its 1H25 performance update. Total recognised revenue in the period rose +16% over 1H24 to ~NZ$12.2m, driven by continued momentum in Subscriptions and a moderate rebound in transactional activity. Subscriptions growth is tracking broadly in line with our expectations for FY25, with the timing of some PoleForeman customer conversions likely to be the key swing factor in IKE achieving its guidance of >+40% revenue growth for the segment. IKE's cash balance is now NZ$6.8m, having declined by only ~-NZ$3m over the last twelve months. The company is confident its cash position can support its breakeven ambition, supported by (1) cost-out initiatives during 1H25 (cash operating expenses fell -4%), (2) continued top-line growth, and (3) reduced development spend with key products now in market. IKE also expects the positive trend in gross margins to continue, with the product mix shifting towards higher-margin Subscription revenues. We raise our blended spot valuation +1cps to NZ$0.84 on tighter cost-control. In a takeover scenario, we suggest an acquirer would likely pay greater than the ~5x average EV/Sales for our Nasdaq emerging cloud index peer set (relative to IKE on ~3.3x FY25 now), given its data edge, blue-chip customer base and its exposure to strong industry tailwinds in North America.

What's changed?
Earnings: We make minor changes to FY25/FY26/FY27 which sees little change to our estimates.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation rises +1%  to NZ$0.84, on tighter cost-control.
Subscription growth accelerates as the next–gen PoleForeman structural analysis product takes hold
Annualised run rate (ARR) on Subscription revenues reached ~NZ$13.2m, up +34% on the pcp, with growth largely attributed to adoption of IKE PoleForeman. Many customers are opting for a per-seat model — with IKE adding +3,800 new subscription seat licences, a +179% increase. Total Contract Value (TCV) associated with IKE PoleForeman subscriptions exceeded NZ$12.5m by the end of 1H25, showcasing strong uptake. We are comforted by a return to solid net total enterprise customer growth over the quarter. A net +16 were added over 2Q25 to 436 - representing solid +4% quarter-over-quarter growth. IKE's retention rate remains at ~95%.

Transactional revenues turn the corner — as expected
Transactional revenues in 1H25 grew +6% , to ~NZ$4.0m as compared to the same period last year, on volumes +13%. Gross margin in dollar terms, however, rebounded +107% in the six months as gross margin was 37% in 1H25 (versus 19% in 1H24). IKE expects transactional revenues will strengthen in 2H25, based on the current contracts in place and positive guidance from key customers.

Cash falling but should support EBITDA breakeven
IKE's cash balance was NZ$6.8m as of 30 September 2024. While there is now less room for error, this level of cash should support IKE's ambition of reaching EBITDA breakeven, provided growth materialises as expected. IKE executed -NZ$0.6m of cost-out during 1H25 and development spend should slow after a period of strong investment with key products now in-market, supporting our view.

Earnings revisions
We make minor earnings revisions following IKE's 1H25 update. We make very minor cuts to our Subscription growth estimates in FY25 and FY26, as we account for risks surrounding the timing of PoleForeman conversions. IKE commented "a delay in the up-sale close processes, with various existing customers, could lead to slightly lower revenue recognition in FY25, but we remain very confident that this revenue would be recognized in subsequent periods." These changes are offset by lower cost assumptions, with cost-control stronger than anticipated during 1H25.

Untamed, it's good that you ask questions and even better the CEO responds.

Glenn says "..we could be profitable tomorrow if we wanted to be." but says they need to continue to invest to grow.

That begs a follow up question like '... if you stopped spending and became profitable how long would IKE survive?'

The answer probably is not that long which to me would imply they possibly need to keep spending more and more forever and never become profitable.

Just my view but will keep following

Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 26, 2024, 07:46 AMUntamed, it's good that you ask questions and even better the CEO responds.

Glenn says "..we could be profitable tomorrow if we wanted to be." but says they need to continue to invest to grow.

That begs a follow up question like '... if you stopped spending and became profitable how long would IKE survive?'

The answer probably is not that long which to me would imply they possibly need to keep spending more and more forever and never become profitable.

Just my view but will keep following

Actually, Glenn didn't say they "need" to. He made it very clear that they are "choosing" to continue to invest in customer acquisition and further product development.

Quote.... the long term value of winning and then retaining these very large utility customers is so significant ....

This sentence is the important one. The potential market for IKE is huge. They know that, we know that (well some of us do anyway). Why would you choose to stop now, and do yourself out of so many more potential customers/contracts?

IKE has always made it clear that their goal is to become the standard for the electricity distribution, and telecommunications sectors. They want all the "big boys" if they can get them. Can you even begin to imagine how big an achievement that would be? Once you have the big players onboard, the small players will more than likely follow. Not to mention the flow on effect of customers requiring their subcontractors to use the IKE platform.

As I said earlier, I am not trying to convince you to invest in IKE. I am simply trying to help people understand what IKE actually does, the significance of that in the North American market, and the vision they have for their business.

Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 26, 2024, 07:46 AMThat begs a follow up question like '... if you stopped spending and became profitable how long would IKE survive?'

The answer probably is not that long

Can you explain why/how a business that is profitable and not spending on growth, would not "survive" for long?

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to announce, following the release of its 1H FY25 Interim Financial Statements on Thursday, 21 November, the Company's CEO Glenn Milnes will host an investor webinar on Thursday, 28 November at 1pm AEDT, 3pm NZDT.
 

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/442187

Quote from: Untamed on Nov 19, 2024, 01:56 PMikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to announce, following the release of its 1H FY25 Interim Financial Statements on Thursday, 21 November, the Company's CEO Glenn Milnes will host an investor webinar on Thursday, 28 November at 1pm AEDT, 3pm NZDT.

There was a hint if there ever was one...."pleased to announce".

They are also "pleased to announce" their last half year result:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/442293

I haven't looked at the numbers in detail but the topline numbers appear ok with sales +16%, Gross Margin at 67% up on last year's 59% and a reduced cash burn.

ikeGPS Group 1H FY25 Investor Webinar – change of date
21/11/2024, 15:40 NZDT, MKTUPDTE
ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) announces that the Company will be hosting its 1H FY25 Investor Webinar on Wednesday, 27 November at 1pm AEDT, 3pm NZDT.

For Bars Review

keGPS (IKE) delivered a solid 1H25 result in revenue terms, which was pre-released in October. Group revenue growth of +16% was underpinned by robust growth in Subscriptions, as total enterprise customers rose +21 over the period to 436. Gross margin improved from 59% in 1H24 to 67% in 1H25, reflecting: (1) the mix-shift towards higher-margin Subscription products, and (2) productivity gains from IKE Analyze's support centre in Mexico. However, operating costs were higher than anticipated. Expensed R&D was elevated as IKE invested in new product development, and capitalisation fell to near zero. Despite this investment, cash burn moderated in 1H25. Cash has fallen only ~NZ$3m over the past 12 months to NZ$6.8m. We make amendments to our cost assumptions, but leave our revenue estimates relatively unchanged. Our blended spot valuation falls -1% to NZ$0.83.

What's changed?
Earnings: FY25 NPAT estimate falls -NZ$1.7m, from -NZ$9.4m to -NZ$11.1m. FY26 and FY27 NPAT fall -NZ$1m.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation falls -1cps to NZ$0.83, with higher opex partially offset by reduced capitalisation and higher peer multiples.
Subscription revenue climbs on strong utility demand
Subscription revenue rose +28% against the prior year to ~NZ$6.5m, driven by continued momentum in IKE's core Office Pro product and adoption of the IKE PoleForeman product. IKE signed ~NZ$12.5m in total contract value for the PoleForeman product during 1H25. The annualised subscription revenue run rate increased to ~NZ$13.2m (+34%) by the end of 1H25. IKE's customer retention rate remained strong at ~95%, reflecting the value and stickiness of its offerings. Guidance for subscription revenue growth in FY25 remains at ~40% or greater, but will be reliant on the timing of customer conversions.


Transaction revenue finds stability through major deals, with Hardware revenues flat
Transaction revenue increased by +6% against the prior year, reaching ~NZ$4.0m, underpinned by a +13% rise in transactional volumes. Segment gross margin improved significantly to 37% from 19%, driven by productivity gains of moving the IKE analyse support centre to Mexico. The signing of a multi-year NZ$19m transaction contract may reduce some segment revenue volatility, although outcomes are contingent on customer project schedules. ��������������Hardware and other revenue was ~NZ$1.7m (in line with 1H24).�������

Outlook — substantial tailwinds for 2H25
The outlook for 2H25 remains promising, with growth expected across both the Subscription and Transaction segments. IKE retained its FY25 forecast for Subscription revenue to grow by ~+40% or more, particularly driven by PoleForeman and now helped by a weak NZDUSD cross rate. Transactional revenue is expected to build on 1H25 gains, though variability will persist. The supportive industry environment in North America, including ongoing grid resiliency programmes and the introduction of new AI-driven capabilities and cost efficiencies, positions the company well to maintain its growth trajectory.

1H25 results review
IKE's 1H25 result saw gains in both Subscription and Transaction revenue segments, improved gross margins, and significant contract wins. Total revenue rose +16% versus 1H24 to NZ$12.2m. Despite gross profit rising +NZ$1.9m or +31% to NZ$8.1m, IKE reported a wider net loss of -NZ$7.1m, against the prior year's -NZ$6.9m. This was largely driven by: (1) a +16% rise in sales and marketing costs to NZ$4.6m, and (2) an +11% lift in R&D to NZ$5.9m. This meant total expenses rose +9% in 1H25 as compared to 1H24. Cash used in operating activities halved to ~NZ$2.6m, and IKE now has NZ$6.8m in cash. Divisionally:


Subscription: Revenue grew +28% against the prior year to NZ$6.5m, driven by the adoption of PoleForeman and ongoing subscription customer wins (+12%). Total contract value was �NZ$12.5m during 1H25, boosting the annualised subscription revenue run rate to NZ$13.2m (+34%). Customer retention remained high at ~95%, highlighting the strong value IKE's platform provides to enterprise customers. Gross margin for subscription revenue held at a robust ~87%.
Transaction: Revenue increased by +6% against the prior year, totalling NZ$4.0m on transactional volume — up by +13%. Staffing costs contributed to the improved gross margin of 37%, up from 19%, with efficiencies from IKE Analyze's contract team in Mexico City. IKE's recently signed NZ$19m multi-year transactional contract will help stabilise segment revenues.
Hardware and other services: Revenue for hardware and other services remained steady at NZ$1.7m, in line with the prior year, with gross margin down slightly at 58% from 60% in 1H24.

Did anyone get a chance to listen in to todays webinar? If so any comments? Thanks GWD

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Nov 27, 2024, 06:01 PMDid anyone get a chance to listen in to todays webinar? If so any comments? Thanks GWD

I did. Financials were pretty much a recap of what we already know. A few comments from Glen that I noted:

There is no need for a capital raise. Someone brought that up again and Glen was very clear that it is not needed. He reiterated the fact that revenue is growing, gross margin is growing, costs are reducing, and the balance street is strong and on track.

Oct-mid November has seen a continuation of sales momentum. They closed contracts of 3 million, in relation to IKE Pole Foreman and  6.6 million closed, across all products over that period.

They had a presence at a recent industry show (electricity utilities) and "sat down" with a number of current customers, all of whom expressed that they are very happy/satisfied - Glenn used the word "delighted." I can't recall his exact words but from what he said, it seems these customers have had their expectations well and truly met, if not, surpassed.

They continue to work with their Customer Council of leading North American electricity utilities - who represent delivery of electricity to over 70 million customers. This partnership is invaluable in terms of IKE understanding what customers want and need, so they can tailor solutions and continue to use to develop additional tools as needed.

The tone was positive and Glenn once again confirmed that everything is on track and as per their projections.

Edit: and seat licences are up 179% for the year.

Quote from: Untamed on Nov 27, 2024, 06:20 PMI did. Financials were pretty much a recap of what we already know. A few comments from Glen that I noted:

There is no need for a capital raise. Someone brought that up again and Glen was very clear that it is not needed. He reiterated the fact that revenue is growing, gross margin is growing, costs are reducing, and the balance street is strong and on track.

Oct-mid October has seen a continuation of sales momentum. They closed contracts of 3 million, in relation to IKE Pole Foreman and  6.6 million closed, across all products over that period.

They had a presence at a recent industry show (electricity utilities) and "sat down" with a number of current customers, all of whom expressed that they are very happy/satisfied - Glenn used the word "delighted." I can't recall his exact words but from what he said, it seems these customers have had their expectations well and truly met, if not, surpassed.

They continue to work with their Customer Council of leading North American electricity utilities - who represent delivery of electricity to over 70 million customers. This partnership is invaluable in terms of IKE understanding what customers want and need, so they can tailor solutions and continue to use to develop additional tools as needed.

The tone was positive and Glenn once again confirmed that everything is on track and as per their projections.

Edit: and seat licences are up 179% for the year.

Thanks Untamed much appreciated.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Nov 27, 2024, 06:25 PMThanks Untamed much appreciated.

You're welcome  :D

The presentation should be available to watch via the original link, according to the reminder email I received earlier, before the webinar.

Well end of the first quarter so we should be due update late Jan. Expecting more positive news and would think the the NZD/USD would be favorable to the bottom line.

So if Glen doesn't think we need a CR when does he start to turn the tap down on R & D spend? I think thats what the market is waiting for. Kill off the thought of a CR and prove the company is profitable.

You will remember what Glen said re profitability, a while back when he replied to my email:



• Profitability: we could be profitable tomorrow if we wanted to be.  However the long term value of winning and then retaining these very large utility customers is so significant, our view is that we need to continue to invest in customer acquisition and also product-extensions – that increases annual revenue per customer.  We can balance these items on short notice but at present we have a balance sheet / investment backing that supports growth vs the former.


As much as I too, would like to see IKE turn a profit, I actually understand, and agree with, the point Glen made. We know IKE needs to remain competitive in what is a huge market. There is still significant scope for more growth in terms of product development/expansion, and I think it too soon for them to pull the plug on that just yet. The uptake on their new and improved Pole Foreman, has been impressive, so anything further IKE can do to pull in new customers and extend current contracts, is good, as far as I am concerned. Plus, as mentioned in the past, their consumer council is working really well , so IKE needs to be willing to develop new products or adapt current ones, if customers request that. Making exactly what your customers want makes better sense than making what you "think" they want, then finding out you got it wrong.

Looking forward to an update!

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Dec 30, 2024, 10:08 AMWell end of the first quarter so we should be due update late Jan. Expecting more positive news and would think the the NZD/USD would be favorable to the bottom line.

So if Glen doesn't think we need a CR when does he start to turn the tap down on R & D spend? I think thats what the market is waiting for. Kill off the thought of a CR and prove the company is profitable.

Quote from: Untamed on Dec 30, 2024, 01:18 PMYou will remember what Glen said re profitability, a while back when he replied to my email:



• Profitability: we could be profitable tomorrow if we wanted to be.  However the long term value of winning and then retaining these very large utility customers is so significant, our view is that we need to continue to invest in customer acquisition and also product-extensions – that increases annual revenue per customer.  We can balance these items on short notice but at present we have a balance sheet / investment backing that supports growth vs the former.


As much as I too, would like to see IKE turn a profit, I actually understand, and agree with, the point Glen made. We know IKE needs to remain competitive in what is a huge market. There is still significant scope for more growth in terms of product development/expansion, and I think it too soon for them to pull the plug on that just yet. The uptake on their new and improved Pole Foreman, has been impressive, so anything further IKE can do to pull in new customers and extend current contracts, is good, as far as I am concerned. Plus, as mentioned in the past, their consumer council is working really well , so IKE needs to be willing to develop new products or adapt current ones, if customers request that. Making exactly what your customers want makes better sense than making what you "think" they want, then finding out you got it wrong.

Looking forward to an update!

From a Market perspective it will want to see the money. Talk is cheap and market won't gain confidence until it see the money hence current share price.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Dec 30, 2024, 01:41 PMFrom a Market prospective it will want to see the money. Talk is cheap and market won't gain confidence until it see the money hence current share price.

Yeah I get that.

Looks like something is about to happen on todays volume and share price moving up,

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 16, 2025, 11:07 AMLooks like something is about to happen on todays volume and share price moving up

Well, yes - a handful of transactions worth slightly above $200k totaling roughly 0.25% of total shares.

Not sure, whether this is significant - hard to say with low liquidity stocks. Doubt though its Warren making his move   ;)

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 16, 2025, 11:23 AMWell, yes - a handful of transactions worth slightly above $200k totaling roughly 0.25% of total shares.

Not sure, whether this is significant - hard to say with low liquidity stocks. Doubt though its Warren making his move   ;)

Due for Quarterly update and most unusual volume. Been a leaky ship before.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 16, 2025, 11:07 AMLooks like something is about to happen on todays volume and share price moving up,

From SB9 on the other channel....... (Maybe) someone got wind of upcoming report or some big business coming Ike's way on back of LA fires?

Big volume day compared to paltry regular trades.

I was just thinking there seems to be someone accumulating.

Lots of pole work coming up in LA?

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2025, 04:28 PMLots of pole work coming up in LA?

And much much more attention to prevention

Wonder what share price will do in lead up to Tuesday week ...and afterwards


https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/435820.pdf

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 16, 2025, 11:37 AMDue for Quarterly update and most unusual volume. Been a leaky ship before.

If that's true, this would be a big warning flag for any investor. Hard enough to make money with stocks where everybody acts based on the same information. Playing Poker against cheaters is a safe method to lose ones money.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 17, 2025, 09:33 AMIf that's true, this would be a big warning flag for any investor. Hard enough to make money with stocks where everybody acts based on the same information. Playing Poker against cheaters is a safe method to lose ones money.

Depends who you are playing poker against but I get what you are saying.

Anyway it will be an interesting meeting and be nice to know how company is tracking after 9 months.

don't forget the old saying 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact"

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 17, 2025, 11:02 AMdon't forget the old saying 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact"

Like the WAHS Winner!!!!

Update below.

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to release a performance update for the recent quarter and the nine-month period to 31 December 2024. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal, unaudited and subject to minor change.

Highlights for the nine-month period:

Exit run rate of annual platform subscription revenue grew to NZ$15.7m (+43% vs pcp).

Total recognized revenue in the period of NZ$18.5m (+21% vs pcp), with recognized revenue in 3Q of NZ$6.3m. Comprising the above was:
+ Subscription revenue of NZ$10.2m (+29% vs pcp).
+ Transaction revenue of NZ$5.8m (+14% vs pcp).
+ Hardware and other services revenue of NZ$2.5m (+9% vs pcp).

Gross margin of NZ$12.6m (+42% vs pcp), with gross margin in 3Q of $4.5m.
+ Gross margin percentage of 68% (up from pcp of 58%), driven by revenue mix continuing to shift to high margin subscription products.

Total cash and net receivables grew +NZ$4m in the quarter to NZ$13.6m.
+ Comprising NZ$9.2m in cash and NZ$4.4m in net receivables (NZ$5.9m receivables, with payables of NZ$1.5m) and no debt. This is a result of continued overall growth, from winning numerous large subscription contracts in the prior quarters and associated collection timing, and ongoing operating cost control.
+ The 31 December 2024 cash position is +NZ$1.2m on the same time in the year prior.

Commenting on company progress through the recent quarter, IKE CEO Glenn Milnes said:

"3Q25 was another strong quarter marked by significant subscription contracts closed with tier-1 North American customers, driving continued growth in ARR run rates. This resulted in the addition of 1,270 new subscription seat licenses during the quarter, bringing the total to over 7,000, a +181% increase compared to the prior year. Notable subscription customer wins in the quarter included with a 100+ year-old electric utility that delivers power to more than three million customers in the south of the U.S., an enterprise agreement with a national engineering group with 150 offices and 8,000 employees globally, and a U.S. communications company with >$50B revenue where IKE is initially supporting their overhead infrastructure operations across California.

We have closed a record ~NZ$44m in total contracts over the past nine months, spanning approximately 640 deals. It is important to note that some of these subscription and transaction contracts will be recognized over a multi-year period, with the execution of certain transaction contracts dependent on IKE customers completing their associated engineering.

Our balance sheet remains strong. The cash and net receivables position increased NZ$4m in the quarter. This is a result of continued overall growth, from winning numerous large subscription contracts in the prior quarters and the associated collection timing, and ongoing operating cost control. Our current cash position of NZ$9.2m exceeds the level reported at the same time last year. This has been achieved while investing significantly into building five new products and while we have continued our expansion in the market with new customer wins running at around one per week.

The investment into product and market development is yielding returns. For example, since the launch of the IKE PoleForeman product 13 months ago, Total Contract Value (TCV) has surpassed NZ$16m, driven by adoption among tier-1 electric utilities in the U.S. market. This has significantly contributed to ARR growth. The highly sticky nature of these customers ensures substantial lifetime contract value. To date, 109 customers have subscribed to the platform, including 59 existing customers and 50 new ones. This growth has driven the issuance of over 7,000 subscription seat licenses, each representing a distribution network design engineer using IKE's software. We expect more major customers to close in the near term and that by the end of FY25 IKE PoleForeman will be the Standard for structural analysis in eight of the ten largest electric utilities in North America.

The Company will discuss the results on a webinar with CEO Glenn Milnes at 11:00am AEDT/1:00pm NZDT today – Tuesday, 28 January 2025.

Excellent!

I especially like this:

This resulted in the addition of 1,270 new subscription seat licenses during the quarter, bringing the total to over 7,000, a +181% increase compared to the prior year. Notable subscription customer wins in the quarter included with a 100+ year-old electric utility that delivers power to more than three million customers in the south of the U.S., an enterprise agreement with a national engineering group with 150 offices and 8,000 employees globally, and a U.S. communications company with >$50B revenue where IKE is initially supporting their overhead infrastructure operations across California.

We have closed a record ~NZ$44m in total contracts over the past nine months, spanning approximately 640 deal

Couldn't ask for more. The usual negative Nancies are out in force on the other channel, as always, but I am more than happy  :D

Revenue Q1 .. Q3: $18.5m

analyst prediction for FY25: $28m (which would be a 33% rise from FY 24)

Looks like they need a really strong Q4 to make that.

Just saying.

Apart from that - does anybody know when they plan to break even? How are they tracking on this path? Writing losses year after year does not feel to be sustainable.

But I better stop before I get called negative Nancy :) . :)

BTW - do not watch the other channel anymore - their moderation is revolting.

A repeat of Q3 would get them to 24.8m. All the duck lining up but the doormen seem to be slow at letting the ducks in to party... Still, I feel things are nearer than ever to getting traction. The increase in cash and receivables of +4m is great news

Glad you posted untamed

I thought of you when I read about a woman getting critically injured when a tree fell on her caravan in Canterbiry ...and hoping it wasn't you.

Cheers

Probably a few here who would have been unperturbed, had it been me  ;)

Thank you for your concern. Trees are always something I'm really weary of, living in a caravan. We had a line of very tall pines directly behind where I'm parked. Several times small branches broke off and fell through my neighbours awning. He was lucky he wasn't sitting under it at the time. A small branch, falling from height, can easily kill you. Fortunately, after we expressed our concern, the camp managers took the pines down, so we can all sleep at night now, even in a storm. Interestingly, our local Council refused to do anything about them, so we are very grateful that the managers did it, and met the cost themselves.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 28, 2025, 12:04 PMGlad you posted untamed

I thought of you when I read about a woman getting critically injured when a tree fell on her caravan in Canterbiry ...and hoping it wasn't you.

Cheers

Yeah, you perpetually negative Nancy  ;)

Glenn has been very transparent (via email to me some time ago, which I shared here), that they could be profitable tomorrow if they wished. But they believe they are better to focus on building on the progress they have made so far, and taking advantage of such a huge potential market, to grow the business. I agree with them, and these results show that there is still too much opportunity, not to take it. 181% growth in licence seats is huge. Not to mention a record $44M in closed contracts over the past nine months. Not too shabby as far as I am concerned.

Why don't you just buy some? You know you want to  ;)

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 28, 2025, 11:25 AMRevenue Q1 .. Q3: $18.5m

analyst prediction for FY25: $28m (which would be a 33% rise from FY 24)

Looks like they need a really strong Q4 to make that.
Just saying.
Apart from that - does anybody know when they plan to break even? How are they tracking on this path? Writing losses year after year does not feel to be sustainable.
But I better stop before I get called negative Nancy :) . :)
BTW - do not watch the other channel anymore - their moderation is revolting.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 28, 2025, 11:25 AMRevenue Q1 .. Q3: $18.5m

analyst prediction for FY25: $28m (which would be a 33% rise from FY 24)

Looks like they need a really strong Q4 to make that.

Just saying.

Apart from that - does anybody know when they plan to break even? How are they tracking on this path? Writing losses year after year does not feel to be sustainable.

But I better stop before I get called negative Nancy :) . :)

BTW - do not watch the other channel anymore - their moderation is revolting.

Well. 1 more cent and I am back to break even on this investment. So I'mm happy with the announcement. (my last lot of buys were at $0.45. Trouble was I bought in at $0.91)

Quote from: Untamed on Jan 28, 2025, 12:30 PMYeah, you perpetually negative Nancy  ;)

Glenn has been very transparent (via email to me some time ago, which I shared here), that they could be profitable tomorrow if they wished. But they believe they are better to focus on building on the progress they have made so far, and taking advantage of such a huge potential market, to grow the business. I agree with them, and these results show that there is still too much opportunity, not to take it. 181% growth in licence seats is huge. Not to mention a record $44M in closed contracts over the past nine months. Not too shabby as far as I am concerned.

Why don't you just buy some? You know you want to  ;)

There is a fine difference between investing in a company saying that they could be profitable if they wanted to (but not wanting) ... and a company which actually is profitable.

But this is not the point. I understand that companies first need to invest to make money ... and I know as well that there are some examples for companies who managed to get outrageously profitable after asking shareholders for sometimes decades to add money. I do know however many more companies who followed the same strategy without ever returning the capital they consumed.

I guess the jury into which of these categories IKE belongs is still out, but just statistically seen are the odds  better to belong into the continuous loss makers category (obviously only until SH stop to give money). That's just the way it is.

My question however was, whether they have a plan when they intend to brake even? This would give shareholders at least something to measure against. Otherwise they can just keep publish whatever nice looking and not comparable numbers they have - and the time to break even is just like this proverbial peace of string ...

And no, I don't want to have their shares. There was a time when I was still young and prepared to to take high financial risks by investing into companies just based on a good story. Still licking my wounds :) , but I think I learned this lesson.

Anyway - all the best to holders - and don't misunderstand me, it well might turn out right. They appear to be a real company and clearly there are customers prepared to pay for their products / services. Just not enough, but sure - if client growth continues they might do at some stage the XRO of the electricity sector (though even they, though having past break even, are still far away from returning their shareholders investment in hard earnings).

Just statistics: the risks for a startup to lose money are drastically higher than the chance to make money, which means that the small number of success stories need to make outrageous money to make it all worthwhile. Question for the investor - do you see them as the amazon or the XRO of the electricity sector? Why? What is the business case? Which brings us back to: do they have a plan - or is it just hope?

Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 28, 2025, 01:07 PMWell. 1 more cent and I am back to break even on this investment. So I'mm happy with the announcement. (my last lot of buys were at $0.45. Trouble was I bought in at $0.91)

Ahh - this is a traders perspective.

My question was not whether it is possible to make money with a stock where the SP is jittering enough. Of course, anybody can do it with either insider knowledge, good TA or just good luck.

My question was - what is the plan for the company to break even - i.e. reaching the point where their revenue is higher than the sum of all of their costs.

But I realize, this is more an investor type question.

Why not email Glenn and ask him? You don't have to be a shareholder to do that.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 28, 2025, 01:24 PMWhich brings us back to: do they have a plan - or is it just hope?

Quote from: Untamed on Jan 28, 2025, 01:33 PMWhy not email Glenn and ask him? You don't have to be a shareholder to do that.

Look - I just try to convey what I would want to know as shareholder. However - I am not a shareholder of this company - and lets face it, the chances that an answer from him would change that are slim.

I expected some of the shareholders in the know to have an answer to the business case / break even question. If they don't and are still happy to put their money into this venture, this is fine with me.

Fine. I'll ask him for you. Then at least you'll have an answer.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 28, 2025, 01:42 PMLook - I just try to convey what I would want to know as shareholder. However - I am not a shareholder of this company - and lets face it, the chances that an answer from him would change that are slim.

I expected some of the shareholders in the know to have an answer to the business case / break even question. If they don't and are still happy to put their money into this venture, this is fine with me.

Today's investor seminar v positive (as indicated by today's results.)

Some highlights:

1.) IKE's Product Council (which includes representatives from 14 of the biggest USA utility companies) is continually helping IKE to identify new products and services
2.) Their new Pole Foreman now has 110 customers (50 new and 60 converting from old model)
3.) Electric vehicle, data centres, and need for improved fibre optics means the USA overhead pole infrastructure needs to double in size by 2050.
4.) IKE's Gross Margin now at 68% an improvement of 10% over last period, and further improvements likely.
5.) IKE still adding large new customers every week as it becomes the accepted 'industry standard' software.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 28, 2025, 01:31 PMAhh - this is a traders perspective.

My question was not whether it is possible to make money with a stock where the SP is jittering enough. Of course, anybody can do it with either insider knowledge, good TA or just good luck.

My question was - what is the plan for the company to break even - i.e. reaching the point where their revenue is higher than the sum of all of their costs.

But I realize, this is more an investor type question.

Notice I didn't mention my "Sells". Because there are none.

As has been mentioned before the company could break even if it wanted to stop spending on research and marketing. So clearly their plan is to increase market share to the point a surplus profit is made and a return to shareholders.

A couple of big trades today. No. It wasnt me buying more.

Quote from: Untamed on Jan 28, 2025, 01:47 PMFine. I'll ask him for you. Then at least you'll have an answer.

No need to ask him for me. But assuming you hold - ask him for you and any other shareholder. You are the gals who need to know.

Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 28, 2025, 02:18 PMNotice I didn't mention my "Sells". Because there are none.

As has been mentioned before the company could break even if it wanted to stop spending on research and marketing. So clearly their plan is to increase market share to the point a surplus profit is made and a return to shareholders.

Lets hope they have an a bit more tangible plan. If its just to "increase market share to the point a surplus profit is made and a return to shareholders"- at which stage would you deem them to be either successful or not? After 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years? Just in case anybody barking at these numbers - I think PEB just celebrated their 20'th anniversary of sucking money out of their shareholders without ever delivering. I hear their supporters (shareholders) are still quite happy and no doubt prepared to fund further decades. Clearly - they could be lucky at some stage, couldn't they? Quite an achievement.

On the other hand - some churches / religions are doing the same thing for millennia without ever having to deliver to their supporters, so - maybe - I might be a bit harsh with some of these startups ...

I have emailed Glenn, so will post back when I hear from him.

I understand where you are coming from BP, but right now, that isn't my focus as an investor. As long as I am seeing continued improvement and growth, in terms of a growing customer base, closed contracts, and the company working hard to expand into huge potential market, I am happy for now. This result shows that they are achieving that. Glenn has said it before, and he said it again today, that the electricity sector in particular, is very conservative, and very cautious, when it comes to change. That doesn't surprise me one bit, given they are a mission critical industry, and can't afford any f**k ups. Of course they want to be 100% sure about a product/service, before committing to it. But as Glenn said, once they get their foot in the door with these companies, they see the benefits IKE provides, and eventually expand their contracts. So from that perspective, there is an element of "waiting game" for IKE, as there also is with transaction revenue. Glenn mentions "timing" often, and it isn't him making excuses. It is simply the nature of the electricity and probably the telecommunications industry too. Patience is needed. They are not going to win customers by pressuring them.

I don't actually need to know the answer to your question right now, because it isn't my focus as an investor at the moment. Growth of the business is more important to me for now. Of course, at some point, I will expect to see them turn a profit, as much as the next guy, but I as long as things keep ticking along as they are, I can wait a year or two longer if necessary.

I am no expert as you well know, but I no longer consider IKE a "start up" company. I think they are well established, and "well positioned" for a very succcessful future. And you know what? I really like that they are still a Kiwi company. Glenn is down to earth, no frills, typical Kiwi bloke, and the fact that he is still heavily involved in all aspects of the business, is a positive for me. Having a Kiwi bloke at the helm of the company makes a difference, for me anyway.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 28, 2025, 05:18 PMNo need to ask him for me. But assuming you hold - ask him for you and any other shareholder. You are the gals who need to know.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 28, 2025, 01:59 PMToday's investor seminar v positive (as indicated by today's results.)

Some highlights:

1.) IKE's Product Council (which includes representatives from 14 of the biggest USA utility companies) is continually helping IKE to identify new products and services
2.) Their new Pole Foreman now has 110 customers (50 new and 60 converting from old model)
3.) Electric vehicle, data centres, and need for improved fibre optics means the USA overhead pole infrastructure needs to double in size by 2050.
4.) IKE's Gross Margin now at 68% an improvement of 10% over last period, and further improvements likely.
5.) IKE still adding large new customers every week as it becomes the accepted 'industry standard' software.

Thanks for the info.

Was there any info on opportunites with in regards to the LA Fires or to a change in thinking in the US with the recent change of Govt.

My own thoughts is if they keep winning clients then sooner or later one of the bigger US players may make a play for IKE. Easier to get their products and IP given the suit they offer and the fact they are working so closely with the clients. Wouldn't be an expensive takeover given the exchange rate is so favourable for them.

DISC: Hold and don't want to see another NZ Software company taken over so cheaply

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 28, 2025, 08:30 PMThanks for the info.

Was there any info on opportunites with in regards to the LA Fires or to a change in thinking in the US with the recent change of Govt.

Yes brief mention...... they currently have a San Diego utility as a client and are in talks with 2 other large Californian ones. They sounded hopeful/optimistic.
No mention of any changes or issues with the new US administration.

It's hard to figure just how much of the industries spend is capturable by IKE. 8 of the 10 largest companies are customers, but what % of those company's engineering spend is heading IKEs way? Does anyone know what figure is actually applicable to engineering within this 50bn sector spend?


I've been looking at CAD software company's for comparisons and the major players seem to have some staggering  company valuations. I know its not quite apples for apples but maybe more similar than comparing xero.

If you're talking potential takeovers then oracle would seam a likely fit and just happen to have an ex employee as one of the independent directors... or would graphisoft or auto desk be more likely suitors? Personally though I hope to see it remain in its current ownership form.

I'm becoming more and more confident we're hitting an inflection point and things are coming together nicely.

For Bars review for those interested

keGPS (IKE) released a solid 3Q25 trading update for the period ending 31 December 2024. Total revenue is tracking +21% ahead of FY24. IKE's year-to-date gross margin dollars grew +42%, and gross margin percentage (at 68% and up from 58% in the pcp) continues to improve, reflecting the mix-shift towards higher-margin Subscription products and gross margin expansion in the division. Cash rose +NZ$1.2m over the quarter to NZ$9.2m, despite ongoing investment in product development. IKE has +NZ$4.4m of net receivables and no debt, substantially reducing the likelihood of needing to raise additional capital for operational purposes. Management indicated during the update call that it expects cash levels to strengthen further over 4Q25. IKE maintained its FY25 guidance for total Subscription revenue to grow by ~+40% or greater compared to the prior year. We retain our NZ$26.7m FY25 total revenue estimate, representing growth of +24% on FY24, but note this requires a strong 4Q25 trading performance. Our blended spot valuation rises +5% to NZ$0.87.

What's changed?
�������Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation rises +4cps to NZ$0.87, on a re-rate in peer multiples.
Operationally showing good progress
FY25 year-to-date revenue is NZ$18.5m, up +21% year-on-year, while ��3Q25 revenue was NZ$6.3m (+31% versus the pcp). For FY25 to date, gross profit is NZ$12.6m, up +42% versus the pcp, and gross margin percentage was 68% over the nine months or 70% in 3Q24. Recognised revenue included NZ$10.2m from Subscriptions (+29% vs pcp), NZ$5.8m from Transactions (+14% vs pcp), and NZ$2.5m from Hardware and other services (+9% vs pcp). IKE added seven new enterprise customers over the quarter to now have 443 in total (420 of which are Subscription customers).

Outlook—substantial tailwinds remain for 4Q25
On the outlook, management said: 'our North American-based team continues to capitalize on significant sales opportunities'. IKE's exit run rate of annual platform subscription revenue grew to NZ$15.7m (+43% vs pcp). The outlook for 4Q25 remains promising, with growth expected across both the Subscription and Transaction segments. IKE retained its FY25 forecast for Subscription revenue to grow by ~+40% or more, particularly driven by PoleForeman and now helped by a weak NZDUSD cross rate. A supportive industry environment, including: (1) ongoing grid resiliency programmes, (2) Trump's promised support for growing electricity production to support AI investment, (3) IKE's new AI-driven capabilities, and (4) cost efficiencies, positions the company well.

Peer multiple discount now looking outsized given the opportunity set in front of IKE
The Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index median EV/Sales multiple is now sitting at ~5.4x EV/Sales (see Figures 9 and 10). Global sector optimism from a Trump government has aided sentiment. IKE trades at 3.5x our FY25 revenue estimate. Optimism in IKE's peer group from the Trump re-election sees our market-based EV/Sales multiple-driven valuation rise to NZ$0.90, +48% above the share price.

There you go...Takeover..$1.00 not enough

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) advises that in late 2024 it received an unsolicited, confidential, non-binding approach from a large, credible private equity group ("Potential Acquirer") to potentially seek to acquire IKE.

Following negotiations, entry into a short period of exclusive due diligence, and soundings under confidentiality & stand-still agreements from several major shareholders, IKE considers that the Potential Acquirer's final offer of approximately NZ$1.00 per IKE share representing an approximately +62% premium to IKE's share price as of 5 February 2025, has no realistic chance to secure sufficient support from shareholders to effect a scheme of arrangement. Accordingly, IKE has discontinued discussions with the potential acquirer.

Further details:
+ IKE was approached, on a confidential and non-binding basis, by the Potential Acquirer, about the acquisition of 100% of IKE's shares, to be effected by way of a scheme of arrangement. The proposal was conditional on a number of material matters including the Potential Acquirer undertaking detailed due diligence.
+ After seeking appropriate advice from its legal and financial advisers, the Board of IKE assessed that the indicative valuation range presented by the Potential Acquirer was sufficient to justify granting this short period of exclusive due diligence with a view to the Potential Acquirer providing a subsequent firm offer that was sufficiently compelling to justify putting before all of IKE's shareholders.
+ The firm offer from the Potential Acquirer was received late-January. This equated to approximately NZ$1.00 per IKE share, an approximately +62% premium to IKE's current share price. This equated to an enterprise value of approximately NZ$165-170m.
+ The current construct of IKE's share register is such that without the key support of its largest few shareholders, no takeover transaction can be successful. Having undertaken direct, confidential discussions, under stand-still agreements from these specific shareholders, IKE's Board determined that a transaction at this price has no realistic chance of securing sufficient support.
+ IKE's Board therefore concluded that continuing to devote resources and incurring the very significant costs to progress this specific process would not be in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders and has accordingly ceased discussions.

IKE continues to focus on its growth strategy targeting the delivery of distribution network software for the North American and other international electric utility and communications markets. The IKE Board considers that the Company's delivery of this strategy will support the valuation expectations of its shareholders in the medium term. IKE also believes that the increasing levels of M&A activity in this space is being driven by the multi-decade market tailwinds tied to the requirement to increasing electrical grid resilience and capacity.

Tyre kicking offer.....happy IKE said no.

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 07, 2025, 11:06 AMTyre kicking offer.....happy IKE said no.

I wonder what they think its worth before they present any offer to shareholders.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Feb 07, 2025, 11:13 AMI wonder what they think its worth before they present any offer to shareholders.

Should bounce north of 80c today...... I reckon the Board would not be interested until any offer is north of $1.50 to $2.00 range.... but just my gut feel.... so DYOR.

Not in a million years. I would be seriously pissed if a takeover was approved. Not at any price they are likely to offer. Not at this point in time, anyway.

Just opened @ $0.73 AUD. on ASX

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Feb 07, 2025, 12:25 PMJust opened @ $0.73 AUD. on ASX

I guess the more interesting question is - does the board really know what the company is worth? So easy to be strong and proud if you are playing with other peoples money. I am sure, we all remember plenty of examples (well, I do) where boards declined good takeover offers and massively destroyed shareholder capital that way.

More difficult (but I am sure, there must be some examples as well) is it to remember examples where boards declined takeover offers and managed to make for their owners more money than the offer was.

But no doubt - this time it will be different, and the board will get it right :) ;

There is only one reason that this offer was made. Because whoever made it, recognises IKEs progress to date, and fully understands their potential. As do I. And I for one, would not support a takeover. I want to continue to own a piece of this company, and I am nowhere near ready to give that up. I literally don't care what price they might come back with, I stand to gain a hell of a lot more over time, by staying invested.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 07, 2025, 12:39 PMI guess the more interesting question is - does the board really know what the company is worth? So easy to be strong and proud if you are playing with other peoples money. I am sure, we all remember plenty of examples (well, I do) where boards declined good takeover offers and massively destroyed shareholder capital that way.

More difficult (but I am sure, there must be some examples as well) is it to remember examples where boards declined takeover offers and managed to make for their owners more money than the offer was.

But no doubt - this time it will be different, and the board will get it right :) ;

Quote from: Untamed on Feb 07, 2025, 12:52 PMThere is only one reason that this offer was made. Because whoever made it, recognises IKEs progress to date, and fully understands their potential. As do I. And I for one, would not support a takeover. I want to continue to own a piece of this company, and I am nowhere near ready to give that up. I literally don't care what price they might come back with, I stand to gain a hell of a lot more over time, by staying invested.

It's a somewhat sad (and depressingly familiar) story that the New Zealand market tends not to be particularly good when it comes to valuing New Zealand companies.

Quote from: Untamed on Feb 07, 2025, 12:52 PMThere is only one reason that this offer was made. Because whoever made it, recognises IKEs progress to date, and fully understands their potential. As do I. And I for one, would not support a takeover. I want to continue to own a piece of this company, and I am nowhere near ready to give that up. I literally don't care what price they might come back with, I stand to gain a hell of a lot more over time, by staying invested.

Sure - whoever made it thought it is more worth to them than the offer they made.

Its just - people making takeover offers are often not right either (remember the declined STU takeover at $1.80, the declined MPG takeover at around 20 cents or the declined SKY takeover? In every case the resident board demonstrated by declining the offer complete cluelessness related to the value of their organization. But hey, they just destroyed shareholder capital and not their own money, so it must be ok.

But yes - I do wish holders that this time it might be different. Its just - one can write a lot of network provider specific ERP software for $160m (which would be IKE's market cap at $1). Anybody can do that (particularly all the other companies serving network providers at the moment - clearly, some market knowledge does help).

Anyway - board choose for you holders to gamble with your $160m ... and, as long as you all are happy with that (it sounds like you are for your share), this is absolutely o.k. Good luck.

Investing is a gamble by nature. All of it. No matter whether you are an investing whizz like our "friend" Basil, or a small, inexperienced investor like me. It is all a gamble.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 07, 2025, 01:46 PMSure - whoever made it thought it is more worth to them than the offer they made.

Its just - people making takeover offers are often not right either (remember the declined STU takeover at $1.80, the declined MPG takeover at around 20 cents or the declined SKY takeover? In every case the resident board demonstrated by declining the offer complete cluelessness related to the value of their organization. But hey, they just destroyed shareholder capital and not their own money, so it must be ok.

But yes - I do wish holders that this time it might be different. Its just - one can write a lot of network provider specific ERP software for $160m (which would be IKE's market cap at $1). Anybody can do that (particularly all the other companies serving network providers at the moment - clearly, some market knowledge does help).

Anyway - board choose for you holders to gamble with your $160m ... and, as long as you all are happy with that (it sounds like you are for your share), this is absolutely o.k. Good luck.

Quote from: Untamed on Feb 07, 2025, 02:06 PMInvesting is a gamble by nature. All of it. No matter whether you are an investing whizz like our "friend" Basil, or a small, inexperienced investor like me. It is all a gamble.

Absolutely, though there are obviously classes of risk. While nobody can predict the future, it is possible to define which outcomes are more or less likely.

The less likely the predicted outcome (like in this case - IKE more worth than a present value of $160m), the higher the gambling component.

Anyway - no worries.

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 07, 2025, 11:36 AMShould bounce north of 80c today......

Naaiice.....onwards and upwards.

Here is For Bars review..

ikeGPS (IKE) received an unsolicited, non-binding acquisition proposal from a North American private equity firm in late 2024, valuing the company at approximately NZ$1.00 per share, representing an enterprise value of NZ$165m–NZ$170m and a +62% premium to the 5 February 2025 share price. After assessing the proposal, IKE's board allowed the bidder a short period of exclusive due diligence to determine whether a firm offer could be sufficiently compelling to justify a scheme of arrangement. Following due diligence, the final offer was received in late January 2025. After confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements, the board determined that the price had no realistic chance of securing the required shareholder support, and the process was terminated. The acquisition proposal would have valued IKE at  a ~4.8x 12-month forward EV/Sales multiple, significantly below the median peer multiple of ~9x. While our blended spot valuation for IKE is NZ$0.92, we have previously noted that a materially higher price may be possible in an M&A scenario, reflecting: (1) IKE's new product development pipeline, and (2) IKE's high-quality customer base, with 34 of the top ~100 investor-owned utilities in North America using its software.

What's changed?
Spot valuation: Increases +5% to NZ$0.92, reflecting the incorporation of FY26 EV/Sales multiples as a component of our blended valuation.
Lack of shareholder support led to termination of discussions
IKE's board engaged in confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements to gauge potential support for the NZ$1.00 per share offer. Feedback from these discussions indicated that the proposed price was unlikely to gain sufficient backing to proceed with a scheme of arrangement. The board weighed this assessment against the potential costs and resource commitments required to advance discussions further. Despite the +62% premium offered, shareholders and the board remained unconvinced that the valuation reflected IKE's long-term growth potential. With no indication that a higher offer would be forthcoming, the board determined that the proposal had no realistic chance of success. As a result, IKE formally terminated discussions, ensuring that management's focus remained on executing its growth strategy rather than pursuing an offer that lacked shareholder support.

IKE's peer group shows significant M&A upside potential under IKE's better-than-sector growth
IKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Feb 10, 2025, 06:59 AMIKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.
 

Crikey..... not often I find myself agreeing with ForBar.

Onwards & upwards.

Announced today more cash coming in. And they have secured an agreement with the third largest electric utility in North America

Quote from: Minimoke on Mar 03, 2025, 09:49 AMAnnounced today more cash coming in. And they have secured an agreement with the third largest electric utility in North America

With more to come....
IKE expects that further significant subscription contracts will close in the short and medium term.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Mar 03, 2025, 10:07 AMWith more to come....
IKE expects that further significant subscription contracts will close in the short and medium term.

Declaring a first ever dividend may be a bit closer.

Quote from: Minimoke on Mar 03, 2025, 10:27 AMDeclaring a first ever dividend may be a bit closer.

Hmmm, just imagine where the share price could be when that happens..

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Mar 03, 2025, 10:30 AMHmmm, just imagine where the share price could be when that happens..

At which point they are probably ripe for a takeover.

surely they are reinvesting in growth rather than paying a dividend?

Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 03, 2025, 11:32 AMsurely they are reinvesting in growth rather than paying a dividend?

That is currently what they are doing.

But as they earn more, there will be a limit on what they can spend on R&D to get a commercial return. So the money that otherwise could have gone to R&D can go to shareholders.

Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 03, 2025, 11:32 AMsurely they are reinvesting in growth rather than paying a dividend?

Quote from: Minimoke on Mar 03, 2025, 11:45 AMThat is currently what they are doing.

But as they earn more, there will be a limit on what they can spend on R&D to get a commercial return. So the money that otherwise could have gone to R&D can go to shareholders.

amazing ... is this the same company which made up to date an average of negative 6 cts earnings per share (in some circles called loss) and with a NTA of 1 cent per share?

Just wondering where the dividend some people are dreaming off will come from, but hey - maybe in this case hope is the driving investment strategy, though it rarely is successful.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 03, 2025, 12:55 PMamazing ... is this the same company which made up to date an average of negative 6 cts earnings per share (in some circles called loss) and with a NTA of 1 cent per share?

Just wondering where the dividend some people are dreaming off will come from, but hey - maybe in this case hope is the driving investment strategy, though it rarely is successful.

Looking to the past is not an accurate predictor of the future.


You are correct - if you look at the past. And at today a dividend is not conceivable.

However start looking at the runs that are accumulating on the board. More customers, more sticky revenue, proportional overheads, decreased R&D spend (but never $0.00). At some point you end up with a surplus (or in some circles called a profit)

IKE have already said they would be profitable but for their R&D spend.

Quote from: Minimoke on Mar 03, 2025, 01:13 PMLooking to the past is not an accurate predictor of the future.


You are correct - if you look at the past. And at today a dividend is not conceivable.

However start looking at the runs that are accumulating on the board. More customers, more sticky revenue, proportional overheads, decreased R&D spend (but never $0.00). At some point you end up with a surplus (or in some circles called a profit)

IKE have already said they would be profitable but for their R&D spend.

Which just leaves the question - for how long?

Just curious - anybody knows, how much they need to invest into customization for any new customer (most of which they will book under R&D)?

That's the way the industry works ... the day you stop further development, bug fixing and (particular for ERP systems like this) customizing your system is the day you start to die.

Nobody will buy into a new software system (any ...) which is not maintained. Nobody will buy an ERP system which is not customized for their needs.

So - as long as they want to survive, they won't stop R&D.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 03, 2025, 01:26 PMWhich just leaves the question - for how long?

Just curious - anybody knows, how much they need to invest into customization for any new customer (most of which they will book under R&D)?

That's the way the industry works ... the day you stop further development, bug fixing and (particular for ERP systems like this) customizing your system is the day you start to die.

Nobody will buy into a new software system (any ...) which is not maintained. Nobody will buy an ERP system which is not customized for their needs.

So - as long as they want to survive, they won't stop R&D.

You must have missed the bit in my post which said " decreased R&D spend (but never $0.00"

Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 03, 2025, 01:26 PMWhich just leaves the question - for how long?

Just curious - anybody knows, how much they need to invest into customization for any new customer (most of which they will book under R&D)?

That's the way the industry works ... the day you stop further development, bug fixing and (particular for ERP systems like this) customizing your system is the day you start to die.

Nobody will buy into a new software system (any ...) which is not maintained. Nobody will buy an ERP system which is not customized for their needs.

So - as long as they want to survive, they won't stop R&D.

BP go read Glens comments earlier on last update from memory. They don't need to raise more cash, just turn the taps off R & D slowly. Doesnt mean you stop R & D just means you trim it down a little.

A SaaS metric commonly used is the Magic Number. It measures the efficiency of sales & marketing spend

Couldn't do it for IKE as quarterly sales didn't grow in Q3 ...even though S&M expenses was about $2.5m

Have a go at this after Q4 is known but this Magic Number doesn't apply to iKE

Here's the news today that got the market a tab excited ( SP up approx 9% or 7c)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/447690

IKE Secures New Multi-Year Subscription Contracts With Two Major U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities.
 
Total initial value of subscriptions contracts closed of ~NZ$3m.
 
 This includes an agreement with the third largest electric utility in North America.
 
 The expectation is that, based on use of IKE's distribution network design software, these subscription commitments will extend to an additive ~NZ$1m p.a. of ARR.
 
 ikeGPS Group Limited (ASX/NZX:IKE) or IKE, today announces that:
 
 It has won two new multi-year software subscription contracts, initially worth ~NZ$3m.
 
 Specifically:
 + One of these customer commitments means over 700 engineers at this electric utility will use IKE Poleforeman's advanced capabilities for structural analysis and the design of distribution assets, to meet grid resiliency and network capacity targets over the coming decades.
 + An expected consequence of these Distribution Standards department decisions is that additional engineering companies and communications groups, working across these power utility's networks, will also adopt IKE PoleForeman long term.
 + Overall, these two companies deliver power to more than 6.5m U.S. customers.
 
 IKE expects that further significant subscription contracts will close in the short and medium term.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 03, 2025, 01:26 PMWhich just leaves the question - for how long?

Just curious - anybody knows, how much they need to invest into customization for any new customer (most of which they will book under R&D)?

That's the way the industry works ... the day you stop further development, bug fixing and (particular for ERP systems like this) customizing your system is the day you start to die.

Nobody will buy into a new software system (any ...) which is not maintained. Nobody will buy an ERP system which is not customized for their needs.

So - as long as they want to survive, they won't stop R&D.

Good points there Peter ...hope people take notice

Looking at expense breakdown v revenue growth it does seem that are to a certain extent a 'service' company compared to a true SaaS outfit .....and that requires ongoing expenses

Just my opinion but I agree with you

TEK Trust adding more...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/448608

Guess we will get update in a months time..

Recent US National Power Demand study outlines tailwinds for IKE (and IFT's Longroad.)

https://cleanpower.org/news/us-national-power-demand-study/#:~:text=It%20predicts%20U.S.%20electricity%20demand,underlie%20the%20long%2Dterm%20dynamics

The full US National Power Demand Study will describe a critical gap between the current energy supply and future needs. It predicts U.S. electricity demand will surge by 35-50% between 2024 and 2040.

22nd April for 4th Quarter update. I wonder if there are any reason to be cautious around Tariffs?

4th Quarter update. Hard not to like it.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450357

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Apr 22, 2025, 08:50 AM4th Quarter update. Hard not to like it.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450357

Glad you are easy to please.

Looks like their FY25 revenue falls 1.1.m short of predictions (25.1m vs 26.2m), and they didn't even review their presentation before publishing it ... just look at the dates in slide 8 and 9.

Bat apart from that - a growth company with a patchy revenue CAGR growth of just 6%?

Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 22, 2025, 09:22 AMGlad you are easy to please.

Looks like their FY25 revenue falls 1.1.m short of predictions (25.1m vs 26.2m), and they didn't even review their presentation before publishing it ... just look at the dates in slide 8 and 9.

Bat apart from that - a growth company with a patchy revenue CAGR growth of just 6%?

I am more focused on the 2025/26 year and beyond. I see good progress being made. 

Discuss next year.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Apr 22, 2025, 09:58 AMI am more focused on the 2025/26 year and beyond. I see good progress being made. 

Discuss next year.

Seeing pogress before it has been made is hard even in normal (predictable) times. These times are anything but predictable, but anyway - good luck with that.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 22, 2025, 10:09 AMSeeing pogress before it has been made is hard even in normal (predictable) times. These times are anything but predictable, but anyway - good luck with that.

I get that, but if we worries about all the crap going on we wouldn't invest so sometimes you need to look past the unpredictable. I gave up on mind/crystal ball reading in 1983 as I found it un realiable.

I still trying to get excited but .......


.....the hype doesn't seem to translate into a great story

IMG_6123.png

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 22, 2025, 10:43 AMI still trying to get excited but .......


.....the hype doesn't seem to translate into a great story

IMG_6123.png

Go back in time and read why that happened Winner. Graphs dont always explain everything

Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 22, 2025, 09:22 AM..... a growth company with a patchy revenue CAGR growth of just 6%?

Not quite correct BP? The 6% rate you quote relates to transaction revenue only (refer P8 chart.)

As I read the IKE charts provided,  three-year subscription revenue CAGR of +37% ( refer P6 chart ) needs to be added to the  6% transaction CAGR revenue growth??

That said, it is confusing as no total CAGR annual revenue fig is provided for the TOTAL revenue chart on page 9.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450406/attachment/441951/450406-441951.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 22, 2025, 12:20 PMNot quite correct BP? The 6% rate you quote relates to transaction revenue only (refer P8 chart.)

As I read the IKE charts provided,  three-year subscription revenue CAGR of +37% ( refer P6 chart ) needs to be added to the  6% transaction CAGR revenue growth??

That said, it is confusing as no total CAGR annual revenue fig is provided for the TOTAL revenue chart on page 9.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450406/attachment/441951/450406-441951.pdf

Total revenue CAGR since 2022 is about 16%

Growth rate declining last few months

Need to see where it's going eh

From look at Gross Margin numbers will still report a sizeable loss .....and probably cash flow negative


But IKE wii get there one day

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 22, 2025, 12:20 PMNot quite correct BP? The 6% rate you quote relates to transaction revenue only (refer P8 chart.)

As I read the IKE charts provided,  three-year subscription revenue CAGR of +37% ( refer P6 chart ) needs to be added to the  6% transaction CAGR revenue growth??

That said, it is confusing as no total CAGR annual revenue fig is provided for the TOTAL revenue chart on page 9.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450406/attachment/441951/450406-441951.pdf

OK - I give you that the company makes it hard to get any meaningful statistics, which might well be another warning flag for investors. What do they have to hide, if anybody can see the losses and the snail pace revenue growth in plain sight?

Here are some facts: According to their published annual reports are they loosing money every year since 2018 (the earliest ref in a report I found). In good years they lost only 5 cts per share and in bad years 9 cents per share, but overall its a flat line.

Total Revenue in 2018 was $7.7m and it went up to 25.2m in 2025 (preliminary). OK - that's better than the 6% for recovering revenue they claimed in their presentation, but its still only a CAGR of 18%, which is pretty meaningless, given that it doesn't seem to turn into an improvement of the earnings situation.

Amazing what a good story can do ... companies like PEB are doing this already for more than 2 decades and people keep loving to give them money.

For Bars Review

keGPS (IKE) reported a solid 4Q25 performance update, with total revenue for FY25 growing +19% on FY24, albeit modestly missing prior expectations on contract timing. Faster growth in Subscription revenues compared to Transactional revenues has seen a favourable lift in overall gross margins. As of FY25, net cash sits at NZ$10.3m, up +NZ$1.1m in the quarter—aided by prepayments of multi-year subscription contracts. We modestly cut our medium-term revenue expectations due to (1) the mild FY25 revenue miss, (2) three consecutive quarters of essentially flat total revenues (on reduced Transactional revenues), and (3) management's new FY26 guidance. The significant tech sector de-rating impacts our blended spot valuation despite rolling forward.

What's changed?



Earnings: Minor cuts to revenue estimates offset by an uplift in gross margins.
Spot valuation: Falls -3cps to NZ$0.89 on the net of 1) modestly lowered near-term revenue estimates, 2) higher gross margin assumptions, but mostly 3) the recent tech sector sell-off.


FY25 performance update


IKE's 4Q25/FY25 update highlighted subscription revenue as the primary driver, reaching NZ$14.4m, up +34% against the prior year. Transactional revenue rose to NZ$7.6m (+3%), reflecting project variability, while hardware and other services delivered NZ$3.2m (+5%). The shift towards higher-margin subscription income supported a +900bp expansion in gross margin, lifting to 69% for FY25. Customer numbers fell with the discontinuation of the legacy PoleForeman product, leading to the loss of around 40 lower-revenue customers—collectively contributing only NZ$0.1m in ARR—who did not transition to the new offering.�������

Operational developments highlight accelerating progress within existing customers


Significant enterprise deals in 4Q25 yielded approximately 1,300 new subscription seat licences, lifting the total to >8,000—up +103% against the prior year. Since the launch of the updated PoleForeman product in late 2023, total contract value has exceeded NZ$17.0m, reflecting IKE's deeper penetration among tier-1 electric utilities in the United States. Several of these operators are standardising on IKE's platform for distribution network structural analysis, prompted by newly introduced AI-driven features. The sticky nature of these customers underpins high retention rates and underscores meaningful long-term revenue potential.

Ongoing momentum sets upbeat FY26 management outlook


IKE's FY25 subscription revenue exit run rate rose by +48% against the prior year, reflecting the full transition to PoleForeman and the boost from macro-driven infrastructure spending. With these tailwinds, IKE forecasts FY26 ARR to grow by +35% or more. We view management's plan to increase gross margins (via a combination of mix and segment margin uplift) as highly constructive—our estimate assumes a +500bp rise from FY25 to reach 74% in FY26, on total revenue growth of +20%.


Earnings revisions

We have revised our FY25 estimates to align with IKE's latest revenue performance update. In FY26 and FY27, we now anticipate a more gradual recovery in Transaction revenue, reflecting potential shifts in US fibre deployment—particularly if policy trends favour satellite over ground-based infrastructure. This adjustment reduces total revenue growth forecasts, despite continuing subscription gains. The mix shift towards higher-margin subscriptions nevertheless provides a degree of earnings insulation, leaving our EBITDA forecasts essentially unchanged for FY25 and FY26, though slightly lower for

Thanks Gwd

Extract "...expect IKE to achieve monthly EBITDA break-even during 2H26, albeit with a full-year loss for that period, and maintain our outlook for EBITDA break-even in the FY27 year."

We all know what that means eh ....probably repeat it again next tear but pushingbdates out

Wow  ...IKE the new Gentrack


In the media --

Elevation Capital Funds Management's Eden Bradfield said there was clearly a strong trajectory for Ike in the US, with blue-chip customers such as AT&T.

"Consider how well Gentrack has done and the potential for Ike to surf on a similar tailwind.

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 23, 2025, 12:53 PMWow  ...IKE the new Gentrack..

"Consider how well Gentrack has done and the potential for Ike to surf on a similar tailwind.

Crikey that's the stuff of dreams Winner! IKE at $10.00....imagine.

Big trade for this stock on ASX @ $0.715

Yeah.. interesting. I had a small qty just sell at .79 on nzx.

Another large volume day, currently 379k @ $0.735 on ASX. 1 trade of 300k.

So 451k been traded at $0.75 AUD, NZX $0.80 on 96k. Something fishy??

Interesting close on price on ASX, make for an interesting opening on the NZX

Last Price / Today's Change
$0.800  +$0.050 (6.666%)

Volume
19,830

Bid / Offer Range
$0.715 - $0.800

Big volumes going through on NZX and ASX today

Quote from: Forrestdun on May 12, 2025, 04:14 PMBig volumes going through on NZX and ASX today

someones certainly buying up. Be an interesting Full Year result unless we get something announced before hand.

Great to see IKE feeling the love today.

Well done holders..... onwards and upwards.

I suspect we will get a speeding ticket shortly. currently $0.845 on ASX on 40k shares

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 13, 2025, 12:55 PMI suspect we will get a speeding ticket shortly. currently $0.845 on ASX on 40k shares

$0.90 on NZX.

It looking like that $1.00 offer might be a bit undervalued.

Somethings going down, just what?

ASX
$0.885  +$0.070 (8.588%)

Volume 770,574

ASX

$0.910  +$0.095 (11.656%)
Volume 782,279

If this is the build up to another takeover offer for IKE.... it had better be near $1.50 IMO.

From Post # 308.
This was from For Bars review on the 10/02 after the $1 offer was turned down. $1.50 could be to cheap and sales changes since.. Hmm

ikeGPS (IKE) received an unsolicited, non-binding acquisition proposal from a North American private equity firm in late 2024, valuing the company at approximately NZ$1.00 per share, representing an enterprise value of NZ$165m–NZ$170m and a +62% premium to the 5 February 2025 share price. After assessing the proposal, IKE's board allowed the bidder a short period of exclusive due diligence to determine whether a firm offer could be sufficiently compelling to justify a scheme of arrangement. Following due diligence, the final offer was received in late January 2025. After confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements, the board determined that the price had no realistic chance of securing the required shareholder support, and the process was terminated. The acquisition proposal would have valued IKE at  a ~4.8x 12-month forward EV/Sales multiple, significantly below the median peer multiple of ~9x. While our blended spot valuation for IKE is NZ$0.92, we have previously noted that a materially higher price may be possible in an M&A scenario, reflecting: (1) IKE's new product development pipeline, and (2) IKE's high-quality customer base, with 34 of the top ~100 investor-owned utilities in North America using its software.

What's changed?
Spot valuation: Increases +5% to NZ$0.92, reflecting the incorporation of FY26 EV/Sales multiples as a component of our blended valuation.
Lack of shareholder support led to termination of discussions
IKE's board engaged in confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements to gauge potential support for the NZ$1.00 per share offer. Feedback from these discussions indicated that the proposed price was unlikely to gain sufficient backing to proceed with a scheme of arrangement. The board weighed this assessment against the potential costs and resource commitments required to advance discussions further. Despite the +62% premium offered, shareholders and the board remained unconvinced that the valuation reflected IKE's long-term growth potential. With no indication that a higher offer would be forthcoming, the board determined that the proposal had no realistic chance of success. As a result, IKE formally terminated discussions, ensuring that management's focus remained on executing its growth strategy rather than pursuing an offer that lacked shareholder support.

IKE's peer group shows significant M&A upside potential under IKE's better-than-sector growth
IKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.

SP Back to where it was in 2014

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 13, 2025, 04:44 PMFrom Post # 308.
This was from For Bars review on the 10/02 after the $1 offer was turned down. $1.50 could be to cheap and sales changes since.. Hmm .....

IKE's peer group shows significant M&A upside potential under IKE's better-than-sector growth
IKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.

Sssooo if it's a takeover @ $1.80..... I'll be v happy at that level.  Thanks GreekWD

IKE now getting some mainstream attention from this article in Business Week (behind paywall)

https://businessdesk.co.nz/journalist/rebecca-stevenson

However, I suspect it will need more than this article to  get the SP over $1.00 !!??

For past 3 weeks we have had some sizeable volume go thru and seen a incremental increase in share price. There has been no speeding tickets from either exchange which surprises me somewhat.

Whilst I have not read the Bus Desk (nice surprise to see) article the stars are starting to align with what our own research says

There has already been takeover talk. For Bar think $1.80. I suspect it may need to be more than that as I expect IKE will be very close to making money 2nd half 2026.

Going to be a fascinating next 12+ months holding this stock assuming there is not a successful takeover in the interim.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 16, 2025, 01:52 PMFor past 3 weeks we have had some sizeable volume go thru and seen a incremental increase in share price. There has been no speeding tickets from either exchange which surprises me somewhat.

Whilst I have not read the Bus Desk (nice surprise to see) article the stars are starting to align with what our own research says

There has already been takeover talk. For Bar think $1.80. I suspect it may need to be more than that as I expect IKE will be very close to making money 2nd half 2026.

Going to be a fascinating next 12+ months holding this stock assuming there is not a successful takeover in the interim.

Agree....As a longer term investor, a quick profit on a takeover would be nice,  but I would prefer IKE is not taken over. I would much rather ride the successes with IKE on the assumption that the shares will be worth much, much more than the takeover offer in 2 to 5 yrs.

Nice to be 'well positioned' either way.

Results out....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452466

Highlights:

 Exit run rate of annual platform subscription revenue grew to NZ$17.6m (+48% vs pcp).
 
 Total recognized revenue in the period of NZ$25.2m (+19% vs pcp), with recognized revenue in 4Q of NZ$6.6m. Comprising the above was:
 � Subscription revenue of NZ$14.4m (+34% vs pcp).
 � Transaction revenue of NZ$7.6m (+3% vs pcp).
 � Hardware and other services revenue of NZ$3.2m (+5% vs pcp).
 � Gross margin of NZ$17.4m (+37% vs pcp), with gross margin in 4Q of NZ$4.8m (73%).
 
 Gross margin percentage of 69% (up from pcp of 60%), driven by revenue mix continuing to shift to high margin subscription software products.
 � Cash Operating Expenses 2% lower than pcp.
 
 Adjusted EBITDA loss of NZ$6.1m (improved from pcp Adjusted EBITDA loss NZ$9.8m)
 
 Net Comprehensive Loss of NZ$16.3m (-11% vs pcp).
 � Excluding impairment (non-cash) the Net Comprehensive Loss position improved by 18% vs pcp.
 
 Total cash and net receivables NZ$15.4m.

 � This comprises NZ$10.3m in cash and NZ$5.1m in net receivables (NZ$6.1m in receivables with payables of NZ$1.0m) and no debt. This grew +NZ$1.8m in the fourth quarter.

 � The 31 March 2025 cash position is consistent with the level 12 months prior.

Also liked 2026 outlook

FY26 OUTLOOK

Based on contracts in place and broader momentum in the business the outlook includes:+ Subscription revenue to continue to increase strongly, at growth levels of 35% or greater.

To be approximately EBITDA beak-even on a run rate basis within the second half of FY26.

IKE's focus will remain solely on winning / becoming the industry standard in the North American market.

The current global tariff situation has no material impact on IKE's business, as a U.S. software provider delivering into U.S. customers.+ New automation applications and modules to be introduced into IKE's established products

Oh dear ... but they provide a nice summary:

QuoteTotal recognized revenue in the period of NZ$25.2m (+19% vs pcp), with a net loss of NZ$16.3m.

What can one say? Pretty expensive revenue, isn't it?

Revenue is growing from a very low base with a long term CAGR of 18.5. Not a growth company, but not too bad. Earnings (Oops - losses) are accumulating slowly and consistently. A real growth company, just the direction worries me.

This year they achieved their biggest loss ever (10.5 cents per share) after averaging 7 cents loss per year and share over the last 8 years. They even exceeded the analyst consensus of another 7 cts loss per share for this year - they achieved a 30 % higher loss - pretty outstanding.

And no doubt - next year will be different and the future is bright.

Mmh - and there are other things growing really fast:

Liabilities to assets did grow from 44% to 83.7%. Wow - do they want to turn this into a bank?

Ah yes, and earnings to equity rises to an amazing -342%. Only fly in the ointment is the small negative sign in front of the number, but never mind.

Clearly - I need to expand some of the columns in my spreadsheet - Haven't seen such numbers before :) ;But then, it is just money, isn't it? Who cares. Great story anyway.

For Bars review

ikeGPS (IKE) delivered a solid FY25 result, with several key metrics pre-released at its 4Q25 trading update. The key positive was continued strong growth in Subscription revenue, driven by momentum with PoleForeman, its structural-engineering software. While a +900 bp improvement in gross margins to 69% was primarily the result of a favourable mix shift towards higher-margin Subscription revenue, margins lifted within all segments. The new detail from the result came around the operating-cost base. We were encouraged by a -2% decline in cash-operating costs, supporting a material improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Management has guided confidently for Subscription revenue growth of +35% or greater in FY26, with EBITDA breakeven expected on a run-rate basis in 2H26. IKE had NZ$10.3 m of net cash at its FY25 balance date, aided by inflows from multi-year customer pre-payments. We reduce the discount in our peer valuation given heightened M&A potential and progress towards breakeven, which increases our spot valuation to NZ$0.93.

What's changed?

Earnings: Our operating EBITDA estimates fall by -NZ$1.0m/-NZ$1.0m/-NZ$4.6m over FY26/FY27/FY28 respectively.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation rises +4cps to NZ$0.93 on reducing the discount in our peer valuation on M&A.

Subscriptions underpin margin and revenue growth
Subscription revenues were the clear growth driver in FY25, rising +34% from FY24 to NZ$14.4m. Strong growth was supported by customer additions and significant seat-licence uptake. IKE now has over 8,500 licences, up +103% on FY24. This growth was led by the PoleForeman platform, now a critical component of IKE's offer, having generated over NZ$17m total-contract value since its late-2023 launch. IKE's Subscription revenue is high-margin (89% gross margin in FY25), helping lift group gross margins from 60% in FY24 to 69% in FY25 as its share of total revenue increased.
Costs tightly managed despite investment
Operating expenses were carefully controlled, with cash operating expenses declining -2% year-on-year despite inflationary pressures. While sales and marketing expenses fell, they remained substantial, reflecting targeted customer-expansion efforts over recent years. Non-cash operating expenses increased due to amortisation and a NZ$4.4m impairment charge on legacy intangible assets. IKE remains confident in reaching EBITDA breakeven (on a run-rate basis) in 2H26, underpinned by continued disciplined cost management (with minimal growth in staff numbers over FY26 anticipated) and sustained Subscription growth.
Cash flat on large pre-paid payments
Net cash was NZ$10.3m at the FY25 balance date, effectively flat on FY24. IKE benefited from pre-payments of multi-year contracts from several major customers in FY25, with long-term deferred revenue climbing +NZ$8.5m to NZ$12.4m. While this will represent a cash flow headwind for IKE in subsequent periods, we continue to see it reaching cash-flow breakeven without external capital.
Results analysis
IKE reported a solid FY25 result, with revenue rising +19% year-on-year to NZ$25.2m. Subscriptions drove revenue growth as the Transactions and Hardware segments grew only modestly. Gross profit leapt +37% to NZ$17.4m, supported by a favourable mix shift towards high-margin Subscription revenue. However, margins rose across all divisions. Adjusted EBITDA improved from -NZ$9.8m in FY24 to -NZ$6.1m in FY25 as cash operating expenses declined by -2%. The NPAT loss widened to NZ$16.3m, which included a NZ$4.4m non-cash impairment charge on legacy intangible assets. Key points:

Subscriptions: Revenue grew by +34% and Gross Margin +39% due to a strong uptake of the next-generation IKE PoleForeman subscription product, which has generated over NZ$17m in total-contract value since its launch in late 2023. Subscription seat licences increased by +103% year-on-year to over 8,500, underpinning consistent growth. Gross margin lifted from 86% to 89%.
Transactions: Revenue grew by +3% and Gross Margin +40%. The ongoing 'Trump' effect was impacting revenues and customer projects, however, transaction margin improved significantly from 24% to 32%, driven by operational efficiencies.
Hardware and Other: Revenue +5% and Gross Margin +26%. Revenues increased slightly, driven by steady hardware sales and associated service revenues, which contributed positively to overall margin improvement. Gross margin lifted from 56% to 68%.
Operating expenses: Total operating expenses increased by +19% to NZ$34.3m, primarily due to a NZ$4.4m impairment charge on legacy intangible assets. Excluding this charge and movements in capitalised costs, cash operating expenses fell by -2%, with targeted reductions in sales and marketing expenses (-6%) partially offset by increased R&D investment (+11%).
Earnings revisions
We revise our estimates following IKE's FY25 results. While we tick up FY26 revenue modestly, we lower our medium-term revenue forecasts, reflecting: (1) a slower-than-anticipated recovery in transactional revenues, given Trump's commentary around satellite versus fibre; and (2) a moderation in our view of Subscription revenue growth for IKE Office Pro. Our opex increases in FY26 but is broadly flat in FY27 and FY28. In aggregate, EBITDA falls -NZ$1m in FY26 and FY27, but by a larger amount in FY28. With net cash stable at NZ$10.3m over FY25 and ongoing operational discipline, we maintain our expectation that IKE will achieve: (1) EBITDA breakeven on a monthly basis sometime in 2H26, as called out by management; (2) full-year EBITDA breakeven in FY27; and (3) cash-flow breakeven in FY28.

2m shares crossed on NZX @ $0.97. Positive indorsement in my book

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 30, 2025, 04:47 PM2m shares crossed on NZX @ $0.97. Positive indorsement in my book

Crossed at 0.95 so positive or negative, you be the judge.

I'd ike to think they are going places.

Quote from: Poet on May 30, 2025, 04:59 PMCrossed at 0.95 so positive or negative, you be the judge.

I'd ike to think they are going places.

2 mill on NZX plus 1.9 mill crossing on ASX both at a similar price equivalent of $NZ 0.95c.... I see it as positive.
 

Ike outlook

Looking ahead to FY26 (the period beginning 1 April 2025) based on contracts in place and broader momentum in the company, we expect our subscription revenue to continue to increase strongly at growth levels of 35% or greater, positioning us well for the medium and long term.

We also expect to be approximately EBITDA break-even on a run rate basis within the second half of FY26. It is of note that our FY25 cash operating expenses reduced year-over-year while materially growing subscription revenues, evidencing the operating leverage opportunity. The current global tariff situation has no material impact on IKE's business as a U.S. software provider into materially all U.S. businesses

IKE $20 Mill Cap raise and trading halt info'

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/454820

Interesting timing for this announcement and the recent hasty departure of the CFO.......???

Monday's update better be good.

Must say I am very surprised by this

Not much of a discount to current price

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 10, 2025, 09:45 AMIKE $20 Mill Cap raise and trading halt info'

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/454820

Interesting timing for this announcement and the recent hasty departure of the CFO.......???

Monday's update better be good.

I wonder why existing shareholders dont get first dibs of the capital raise. Share dilution coming up.

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 10, 2025, 10:14 AMI wonder why existing shareholders dont get first dibs of the capital raise. Share dilution coming up.

Existing s/holders get "the opportunity to apply for up to a maximum of NZ$32,500 of new shares free of any brokerage, commission, and transaction costs."

It's going to be interesting to see what (if any) dilution takes place.

Remember the days when the CEO said, "we don't see any need to raise capital..." and "we expect to be approximately EBITDA break-even on a run rate basis within the second half of FY26."

S/holders  should be asking the CEO, "what's changed?"

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 10, 2025, 02:20 PMExisting s/holders get "the opportunity to apply for up to a maximum of NZ$32,500 of new shares free of any brokerage, commission, and transaction costs."

It's going to be interesting to see what (if any) dilution takes place.

Remember the days when the CEO said, "we don't see any need to raise capital..." and "we expect to be approximately EBITDA break-even on a run rate basis within the second half of FY26."

S/holders  should be asking the CEO, "what's changed?"

I agree questions should be asked, last week's announcement said this.

 IKE remains in a very strong growth, operating and financial position, and the Company continues to execute successfully on its strategic plan.

I find it hard to reconcile a very strong financial position with a capital raise so soon after. And a very strong growth with 2025 year revenue about 20% less than 2 years prior.
I think Glen Miles is overly optimistic in all his communications.

For Bars update

ikeGPS (IKE) has now committed to building two new subscription software modules at the direct request of its customer council—a group comprising more than a dozen major North American electric utilities. This follows the success of IKE PoleForeman, whose redevelopment also followed a council-led approach and now generates ~NZ$7m in ARR. We now incorporate preliminary, albeit conservative, assumptions into our estimates, reflecting a <24-month build-to-revenue window, and we see potential for these new products to be 2x–5x+ PoleForeman's ARR at maturity. The new modules will extend IKE's software capability into 'how utilities capture, digitise, and manage their distribution networks'. IKE is raising ~NZ$22m to ensure it can pursue the product build at pace. Our blended spot valuation lifts +28% to NZ$1.19.

What's changed?



Earnings: FY26/FY27/FY28 EBITDA estimates fall -NZ$0.5m/-NZ$1.6m/-NZ$3.3m respectively, but rise significantly longer term.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation lifts +NZ$0.26 to NZ$1.19 on introducing a risk-weighted new product assessment.


Customer-led new product development


The new initiatives originated through IKE's customer council—now comprising 13 of the largest investor-owned utilities (IOUs) in the US—the same group whom were involved in redesigning PoleForeman. This ensures strong product–market fit and very likely accelerates uptake. Importantly, every council member who helped with PoleForeman is now a subscriber of the new product. We expect the same pull-through effect to occur again, given the alignment and council-led engagement.

Adjacent to PoleForeman, but structurally larger


We understand the new modules are designed to complement PoleForeman—with strong cross-sell applicability and a similar user base—but will also be capable of being sold standalone. While detail on the new products is limited (given obvious commercial sensitivity), we are bullish on the opportunity to develop further scale and deepen customer relationships. Unlike PoleForeman, which supports structural-pole analysis, we expect the new product to target a broader set of network design, optimisation workflows, and system-wide planning. Management has indicated the opportunity is large, and we consider this to be a NZ$20m–NZ$50m+ ARR opportunity, given broader applicability, significantly expanding IKE's addressable market among 6,000+ North American utilities.

Capital raise to support accelerated development and provide balance sheet flexibility


Management confirms that development has commenced with IKE's existing R&D team, aiming to deliver the product within 24 months at a cost of around NZ$11m. We believe this is a 'once-in-a-cycle opportunity' to scale the platform's scope, unlock operational leverage, and embed IKE more deeply in grid infrastructure markets. The company is raising ~NZ$22m to pursue building these products at pace. This may allow commercialisation ahead of our current estimate of FY28, while also enabling other work programmes to continue without delay.


Earnings revisions


We incorporate a preliminary view of the newly greenlit, council-backed products into our estimates, with a degree of conservatism. We assume R&D development occurs over FY26 and FY27 where we model an additional +NZ$11m in R&D, 80% capitalised. This is funded by the new ~NZ$22m capital raise, which we incorporate into our numbers. Revenue contribution is not expected until FY28. On this basis, our FY26/FY27/FY28 EBITDA estimates fall -NZ$0.5m/-NZ$1.6m/-NZ$3.3m respectively. However, these new product modules support longer-term margin expansion from significantly enhanced operating leverage. Our blended spot valuation lifts +28% to NZ$1.19 on these longer-term earnings upgrades. Our conservative new product assumptions—reflecting the limited public detail on the targeted application for obvious commercial sensitivity reasons—see these new council-backed modules reaching NZ$10m in revenue in FY29, broadly mirroring PoleForeman's 18-month post-launch trajectory (from its 3Q24 debut). We forecast these new products scaling revenue to >NZ$50m by FY35, supported by embedded pull-through from existing IKE customers and broader relevance across the ~6,000-utility North American market. Our assessed peer group is trading on 7.1x one-year forward EV/Sales, which would translate to ~NZ$1.16 on our estimates for IKE, assuming the same multiple, but before the ramp of the new products is seen.

Thanks for sharing Greekwatchdog......much needed additional info IMO.

IKE's customer council is a great way to further enhance and  integrate their software with clients. Win, Win for all.

iKE Successfully Completes A$18 Million Fully Underwritten PlacementKey Highlights

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE / ikeGPS) (NZX/ASX: IKE) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its approximately A$18.0 million (approximately NZ$19.6 million) fully underwritten placement of new ordinary shares to sophisticated, professional and institutional investors that was announced on Thursday 10 July 2025 (Placement).

Pleasingly, the Placement was well supported with strong over-demand from existing investors as well as multiple new long only ASX institutional investors.
IKE will offer eligible xisting shareholders the opportunity to participate in a non-underwritten share purchase plan to raise up to A$2.0 million (approximately NZ$2.2 million) (SPP, and together with the Placement, the Equity Raising)

Proceeds from the Equity Raising will be used to fund new product development to maintain and extend IKE's market leadership, accelerate sales and marketing efforts, and provide balance sheet flexibility to execute on potential strategic bolt-on acquisition opportunities and general working capital.

IKE will develop two important new next-generation subscription product modules in collaboration with its extended customer-council, which are intended to extend IKE's value in how utilities and communications companies capture, digitize, and manage their distribution networks.Commenting on the successful Placement, IKE's Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director, Glenn Milnes said:

"We are extremely pleased by the level of support we have received from our existing shareholders as well as new institutional funds. This support places us in a strong position to execute on our accelerated growth plans, as detailed in our Investor Presentation provided to the NZX and ASX on 10 July 2025."Settlement of Placement SharesSettlement of new shares issued under the Placement is expected to occur on Monday, 21 July 2025, with allotment and commencement of trading of the new shares expected to occur on Tuesday, 22 July 2025. The new shares will rank equally with existing fully paid ordinary IKE shares from the date of issue.New shares under the Placement will be issued at a price per share of A$0.81 (NZ$0.88) (Offer Price).

The Placement is fully underwritten by Shaw and Partners Limited and Unified Capital Partners Pty Ltd who are acting as Joint Underwriters, Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners to the Placement. Chapman Tripp are acting as legal counsel to IKE in connection with the Equity Raising.Details of Share Purchase PlanFollowing the completion of the Placement, IKE will offer eligible existing shareholders the opportunity to participate in a non-underwritten SPP to raise up to A$2.0 million (approximately NZ$2.2 million). Under the SPP, eligible IKE shareholders, being shareholders who have a registered address in Australia and New Zealand on IKE's register at 7.00pm AEST / 9.00pm NZST on Wednesday, 9 July 2025, will have the opportunity to apply for up to a maximum of A$30,000 or NZ$32,500, respectively, of new shares free of any brokerage, commission, and transaction costs. New shares to be issued under the SPP will be issued at the Offer Price.New shares to be issued under the SPP will rank equally with existing IKE shares on issue and will be quoted on the NZX and ASX from the date of SPP allotment. If the SPP is oversubscribed, IKE may scale back applications at its discretion, by reference only to the number of fully paid ordinary shares held by eligible shareholders accepting the SPP at 7.00pm AEST / 9.00pm NZST on Wednesday, 9 July 2025.The Directors of the Company who are Eligible Shareholders intend to apply to fully participate in the SPP.Further details of the SPP will be set out in the SPP offer booklet, which will be released to the NZX and ASX on Wednesday, 16 July 2025. The closing date for applications by eligible shareholders is 7 August 2025.

Offer price $0.88. Current SP = $0.89 . At this level I wont be participating in capital raise.

Edit - But after the ASX opens and now at $1.00, I could well do!

Hmm $0.98 on NZX

ASX
Last Price / Today's Change

$0.900 +$0.050 (5.882%)Volume

1,315,979Bid 

Offer Range

$0.910 - $0.945

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 14, 2025, 10:33 AMOffer price $0.88. Current SP = $0.89 . At this level I wont be participating in capital raise.

But after the ASX opens and now at $1.00, I could well do!

LOL.Strange day following IKE and PEB thats for sure

Market seems to be agreeing with ForBars ( see post #376)

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 14, 2025, 01:09 PMMarket seems to be agreeing with ForBars ( see post #376)

Starting to make me wonder what sort of takeover price from here would the board consider to forward offer shareholders to consider should one come.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jul 14, 2025, 01:59 PMStarting to make me wonder what sort of takeover price from here would the board consider to forward offer shareholders to consider should one come.

I was mulling this too. Would have to be north of $2.00 surely!

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 14, 2025, 02:03 PMI was mulling this too. Would have to be north of $2.00 surely!

Well from memory For Bars said before all this $1.80+. Say who's to say closer to a $3? Will come down to timing

The positive thing out of this is that IKE's clients have asked for this extras so we know they will take it up, and how much work have the software designers done already?

Strong support for IKE from the ASX today.....over 2.6 Mill shares traded at circa $NZ 1.01.

Great day for patient holders.

So set the date for 1st quarter update. 22nd July.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jul 17, 2025, 11:25 AMSo set the date for 1st quarter update. 22nd July.

Let's hope Q1 revenues are >$7.0m ..... anything less not that good

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jul 17, 2025, 11:25 AMSo set the date for 1st quarter update. 22nd July.

Change of date, now 29th July

New shareholder notice on ASX, Ellerston Capital with 6.2%.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...b8940c41f474b6

And NZX with 2.859m shares traded.

Q1 update out today

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/455787/attachment/448362/455787-448362.pdf

Commentary exudes positivity so all must be going to plan. And punters will continue to believe the story

But growth is slowing ...quite significantly

I keep this chart up to date ...rollingb4 quarter sales

IMG_6206.png

Yup it's all clap your hands wonderful stuff, eh... Err excepting that they're still EBITDA-negative...and with some segmental softness... and modest overall revenue growth.

A failure to meet H2 breakeven or slowing subscription momentum would be...interesting.

I couldn't access this site most of today...no explanation.... just a frustrating site.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 29, 2025, 07:21 PMQ1 update out today

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/455787/attachment/448362/455787-448362.pdf

Commentary exudes positivity so all must be going to plan......

But growth is slowing ...quite significantly....

Agree. As I was overweight in IKE I took some nice profits out at $1.03 on Monday and I won't be participating in the cap raise because I suspect in the next few months the SP could drift lower as it's over 12 months before their new cap raise software will be generating meaningful revenue increases.

Re winner's comment that revenue growth is slowing..... one quote from the webinar today may disprove this as over the last FY they averaged 1 new customer per week, but in Qtr 1 of FY26 they say they are achieving 2 new customers per week. However these customer gains are not yet showing in transaction revenue.

Can IKE deliver their promises?  I still think they can, but suspect we won't see much SP excitement until FY27..... unless another takeover offer comes along. JMHO. DYOR.

I think they maybe close to peak USA. Disappointing they don't seem to be looking at other markets.

For Bars Review

ikeGPS' (IKE) 1Q26 update was marginally below our revenue expectations, but ahead of our customer growth and gross margin estimates. While headline group revenue growth was modest (+12% vs 1Q25) it was impacted by FX movements (the USD dropped ~-7.5% against the NZD over 1Q26). Underlying metrics continue to improve. Subscriptions are now 64% of revenue and delivered a 92% gross margin in 1Q26. Ongoing softness within Transactional revenues (-16% vs 1Q25) and margins were the only areas of operational softness, as we understand US policy settings continue to impact fibre rollout momentum. IKE remains on track to meet our FY26 expectations, with management reiterating its guidance for >35% Subscription revenue growth in FY26 (FB: +38%) and EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis in 2H26. IKE's ~NZ$22m capital raise provides the headroom to accelerate new product development. Our forecasts and blended spot valuation of NZ$1.19 remain unchanged.

Subscription strength continues, albeit on slowing growth rates, whilst Transactions remain pressured by Trump policy positioning
1Q26 revenue of NZ$6.4m was largely in line with our estimates, with Subscription revenues rising +28% year-on-year to NZ$4.1m. 1Q26 Subscription revenues were marginally below 4Q25, showing normal seasonality. Transaction revenues fell -16% year-on-year to NZ$1.5m on transaction volumes down -35% year-on-year. We retain our expectation of a modest recovery in Transactional revenues in 2H26. Hardware revenues remained flat. The customer base expanded by a net +3% (or +16) in 1Q26, bringing the subscription total to 411. IKE ended 1Q26 with an exit annualised recurring revenue (ARR) growth rate of +29%, down from the +48% exit run rate at May 2025, as the impact of the PoleForeman introduction cycles through and FX headwinds.

Gross margin expands further due to segment mix
Quarterly gross margin dollars rose +20% year-on-year to NZ$4.8m with a gross margin percentage of 76% in 1Q26 (+600bps versus 1Q25), primarily driven by segment mix. Platform Subscriptions delivered a gross profit of NZ$3.9m (+35% year-on-year), lifting segment gross margin to 92%, up from 88% in 1Q25 and 89% in 4Q25. Platform Transactions gross margin fell to NZ$0.3m as volumes declined to 47k billable transactions vs 72k in 1Q25. Transaction segment margin contracted to 22% (from 41% in 1Q25 and 28% in 4Q25). Hardware & Other gross margin dollars lifted +20% year-on-year to NZ$0.6m as segment margin expanded to 80% (from 59% in 1Q25 and 71% in 4Q25).

Positioned for a product roadmap acceleration—with first new 'network management' module for late-FY26 or 1Q27 delivery
The NZ$19.6m placement, which was completed in July 2025, fully funds IKE's product roadmap, including delivery of the new customer council-led product modules. At its 1Q26 update, IKE had NZ$8.8m in cash prior to both the placement settling or the ongoing NZ$2.2m Share Purchase Plan (SPP) raising. We continue to view these product council led pull-through products as high-value term opportunities for IKE, with the first offering to be launched late-FY26 or 1Q27. Demand is underpinned by long-term structural demand, as electricity grid resilience and capacity plus data-rich network digitisation efforts continue to intensify.

Good to see ForBar's still positive, thanks for posting GW Dog.

The recent hasty departure of the CFO is an ongoing concern for me..... not yet resolved.

IKE well positioned...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-is-power-hungry-and-americas-aging-grid-cant-keep-up-090045961.html

Thirty-one percent of transmission equipment and 46% of distribution equipment in the US are within five years of the end of their useful life or have already passed that point, according to research from Bank of America. Across the country's electric utilities, which deliver energy to customers and maintain the infrastructure required to do so, two-thirds of 2024 spending went toward replacing existing infrastructure, the bank found.

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 07, 2025, 08:08 AMIKE well positioned...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-is-power-hungry-and-americas-aging-grid-cant-keep-up-090045961.html

Thirty-one percent of transmission equipment and 46% of distribution equipment in the US are within five years of the end of their useful life or have already passed that point, according to research from Bank of America. Across the country's electric utilities, which deliver energy to customers and maintain the infrastructure required to do so, two-thirds of 2024 spending went toward replacing existing infrastructure, the bank found.

Thanks for posting Left Field

I have submitted my application for the CR. Be interesting to see how much we get.
I sold a 3rd of my holdings 8 weeks ago @ $0.92, so I guess I am buying them back slightly cheaper. Be interesting to see where the share price goes from here once new shares allocated..

Lets see if management can take advantage of this massive opportunity and live up to their internal hype.

Over subscribed and they have accepted over subscriptions

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/456660

Latest update ex For Bar after C.R.

KE's oversubscribed and upsized share purchase plan (SPP) builds on July's institutional placement, further enhancing balance sheet flexibility. While near-term cash use is likely to increase due to the accelerated development of two customer council-led products, this is likely to be offset by ongoing improvements in operating performance. The enlarged cash position provides a buffer for continued execution of existing programmes alongside the new product roadmap, and gives IKE some headroom for potential future M&A opportunities. In its 1Q26 update, management reiterated its expectation to achieve cash flow breakeven on a run-rate basis in 2H26, consistent with our forecasts. We view the combined capital raise as strategically positive, enabling IKE to pursue an expanded go-to-market strategy without balance sheet constraints—even as large client prepayments begin to ease over FY26. Our blended spot valuation falls modestly.

What's changed?
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation falls -3% to NZ$1.12, due to the modest dilution from the increased capital raise.
Raising upsized and cash impact
The non-underwritten SPP was upsized from NZ$2.0m to NZ$9.0m after being oversubscribed by eligible retail shareholders. Added to IKE's 1Q26 pro forma NZ$8.8m net cash position and July's NZ$19.6m placement, post-SPP cash rises to an estimated ~NZ$36.0m after offer costs. For reference, IKE has indicated that R&D spend on the two new products over the next 12–24 months is estimated at NZ$11.0m. All considered, the additional funds raised provide a solid buffer, even as total deferred revenue of NZ$20.0m (as of 31 March 2025) is expected to trend lower, with fewer large Poleforeman prepayments expected.

Execution flexibility
The enlarged cash position supports both existing initiatives and new product development, while preserving capacity for sustained go-to-market investment. In the 1Q26 release, management reiterated that cash flow breakeven on a run-rate basis is expected in 2H26, providing further comfort that the additional capital will support growth rather than offset operating losses. The combination of strong visibility on subscription revenue growth and a materially strengthened balance sheet reduces execution risk.

Valuation impact
While the additional NZ$7m raised via the SPP is modestly dilutive to our spot valuation—with approximately 8m new shares issued at NZ$0.88 per share—we view the impact as outweighed by: (1) the fairness of enabling further participation by existing retail shareholders; (2) improved stock liquidity; (3) capital to de-risk the go-to-market strategy for the new products; and (4) longer-term M&A optionality. Fully funded, IKE can advance with confidence in a market benefiting from multi-decade grid resilience investment, reinforcing our positive view.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 29, 2025, 08:15 PM.... As I was overweight in IKE I took some nice profits out at $1.03 on Monday and I won't be participating in the cap raise because I suspect in the next few months the SP could drift lower as it's over 12 months before their new cap raise software will be generating meaningful revenue increases....

Mmmmm SP slipping down to CR levels and not much interest in the buy side. GLH's.

Next update not expected till ASM around 30 September.

ASM Presentation
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/459735/attachment/453285/459735-453285.pdf

Bullish update 1H FY26

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/461439

 • Exit run rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue ~NZ$19.4m annualized (+47% vs pcp).
 • Strong growth of recognized platform subscription revenue to ~NZ$8.8m (+35% vs pcp).
 • Total revenue of ~NZ$12.8m (+5% vs pcp), noting the lower margin services revenue component is down vs pcp because of volatility in the fibre communications market, which is expected to rebound.
 • Reiteration of FY26 guidance for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis within 2H26.
 • Gross margin of ~NZ$9.6m (+18% vs pcp).
 • Gross margin percentage increased to ~75% (up from pcp of 67%).
 • Cash operating expenses are materially the same as pcp, while executing the above growth.
 • Launch of AI companion capability within the core IKE Office Pro product, called PolePilot , game-changing AI-driven automation for electric utility distribution network analysis. This delivers material productivity gains for customers using IKE's core platform, also driving increased ARPU for IKE.
 • Total cash of NZ$34m as at 30 September 2025, with no debt, putting IKE in a strong financial position and with ample liquidity to execute the product roadmap and market development.
 • In the period, IKE successfully completed a significantly oversubscribed A$24 million capital raise (approximately NZ$26 million), demonstrating strong institutional and retail investor support.
 • In September, IKE was elevated to the ASX All Ordinaries Index, which tracks the 500 largest companies listed on ASX by market capitalization.

Q2 revenue same as Q2 last year ..no growth in other words

I'm still waiting for the raves to burst into reality ..one day

IMG_6260.png

Yep not impressed by revenue growth (ie lack of) .... also not impressed being blocked from viewing the webinar.

Was anything interesting said in the update?

Quote from: Left Field on Oct 28, 2025, 11:03 AMYep not impressed by revenue growth (ie lack of) .... also not impressed being blocked from viewing the webinar.

Was anything interesting said in the update?

I couldnt get on either, but market seems to have liked it since meeting began.

Thanks GWD......I'll email IKE to let them know.

Anyway nice to see the SP endorsement so far today.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Oct 28, 2025, 11:31 AMI couldnt get on either, but market seems to have liked it since meeting began.

I've had this response from NWR who ran the seminar....

"There is currently an issue with Zoom where some users are receiving "403 forbidden" errors, which may explain why you were unable to join.

Please see here for a replay of the webinar:"  https://youtu.be/PRaliO_pkMw

Quote from: Left Field on Oct 28, 2025, 04:52 PMI've had this response from NWR who ran the seminar....

"There is currently an issue with Zoom where some users are receiving "403 forbidden" errors, which may explain why you were unable to join.

Please see here for a replay of the webinar:"  https://youtu.be/PRaliO_pkMw

Thanks Left Field

Strong trading of IKE on ASX today..... approximately 3 x's NZX volumes with a high of $AU 1.00 or approx  $NZ $1.14

Aus analysts seemed impressed on the webinar's Q & A session.

For Bars review

While ikeGPS's (IKE) 2Q26 update highlighted a short-term moderation in top-line growth, margin strength continued, and a robust growth outlook was reiterated. Notably, the new PolePilot product, launched in September 2025, represents a meaningful opportunity for IKE to increase Subscription ARR (we estimate >+10%). Group gross margin showed further improvement, reaching 75.4% in the quarter, up +75bp quarter-on-quarter, supported by product mix and cost control.

The underlying Subscription business saw solid customer growth and continued product development. Management reiterated that two upcoming customer council-backed modules are on track, with FY26 guidance for +35% Subscription revenue growth and run-rate EBITDA breakeven in 2H maintained. While total revenue softened sequentially on 1Q26 (-1% quarter-on-quarter), driven by Platform Transactions and Hardware segment weakness, IKE remains well positioned to take advantage of structural tailwinds from US grid modernisation. We make modest cuts to near-term Transactional revenues but lift our Subscription estimates. Our blended spot valuation rises +4cps to NZ$1.16.

What's changed?
Spot valuation: We lift our spot valuation +3% to NZ$1.16, given the launch of PolePilot and an uplift in margin assumptions.
Subscription growth remains solid, new product to support ARR growth
Platform Subscriptions delivered NZ$4.7m of revenue in 2Q26 (representing 73% of total), +12% quarter-on-quarter and +35% half-on-half, driven by continued strength in IKE Office Pro and PoleForeman. Segment gross margin rose +50bp sequentially to 92.5% in 2Q26, with ARPU up +9%, reflecting higher-value customer adds. Seat licences lifted +11% quarter-on-quarter to 9,283, while total customers rose +3% to 423. Solid subscription growth was underpinned by momentum in PoleForeman, with IKE now expecting the product to reach ~NZ$10m in ARR by year-end FY26. FY26 guidance for +35% subscription revenue growth was maintained, with 1H26 revenue of NZ$8.8m (+35% vs 1H25) tracking in line. This will be helped by the launch of PolePilot, an AI-automated add-on now embedded as a compulsory subscription feature for existing customers. Early pricing, we estimate, has lifted per-seat pricing by more than +10%, providing a clear tailwind to recurring revenue growth.

Transaction revenues soften on near-term uncertainty
Platform Transactions had a poor period. 1H26 revenues fell -32% half-on-half, as US fibre customers reduced spending amid funding uncertainty under the Republican administration, with both volumes (100k vs 160k) and price per transaction (-6%) down on 1H25. Gross margin fell to 17% in 1H26 from 37% in 1H25. IKE anticipates a recovery 'over the medium term'.

Product roadmap and funding underpin outlook
IKE's NZ$34m cash balance provides ample room for the development of the two customer council-backed software modules and other AI automation projects. While the company reported 'strong progress' on the first module, our expectations for initial revenues in FY28 remain unchanged. We expect further investment in sales and marketing to support scale and accelerate delivery timetables.

Earnings revisions
Following IKE's 1H26 performance update, we lift our Subscription Platform revenue forecast for 2H26 and beyond, reflecting the launch of PolePilot. We anticipate PolePilot, launched into IKE Office Pro in September 2025, could deliver a >+10% uplift in annualised Subscription revenue. The product launched at a price of ~US$200 per seat per annum, with compulsory uptake for all IKE Office Pro users. We recalibrate our FY26 Platform Transactions revenue to reflect 1H26 softness and limited 2H26 visibility. We now expect a year-on-year decline for Transactions in FY26 (previously a modest uplift), with a return to growth, albeit at a slower rate, in FY27/FY28. We lift our full-year Subscription Platform gross margin by +2.5pp to 92.5%, near our long-run 93.0% margin assumption, reflecting operational leverage and solid cost control. Our FY26 Hardware and Other gross margin lifts +6.0pp to 74%, now our long-run estimate, as the segment shifts more to a service model rather than traditional hardware. We make minor upward revisions to our sales and marketing expense and other opex forecasts in FY27 and FY28 on increased spend related to the launch of two customer council products currently under development, and confirmation on the results call that IKE wants to reinvest to go faster.

My fears regarding IKE's execution of planned Software upgrades have been unfounded....Clearly the product improvements driven by IKE's 'university' client training and feedback initiative are working very well.

As one analyst noted, IKE's independently assessed NPS score of 91% was one of the highest customer satisfaction scores he has ever seen.

Short term low revenue growth caused by the USA administration's call to slow fibre roll out etc in favour of Musks satellites was concerning. Talk about putting all your eggs in one risky basket! The current shut down of US Govt and funding perhaps another concern, however it could work in IKES's favour as it gives IKE more time to refine and add value to its products &  services.

Onwards and upwards.

Crikey, hit a 12 month high of $1.14 this afternoon.....being pushed higher by the ASX it seems.

Nice endorsement.

ps the following from Racuurtle on Hot Copper FWIW

"Some of my webinar takeaways:
Strongest quarter ever for subscription revenue - source of growth was spread out amongst customers rather than certain big wins
Opex flat despite growth.
PoleForeman still going strong and being standardised
Transaction revenue down due to fibre optic companies having to rebid for work - but will rebound at an uncertain date (not optimal but not a red flag; i'd be much more concerned about platform subscription growth concerns)

Growth will come from:
Upselling current customers (20% penetrated ..not expecting full 100% of course)
New logo wins
New AI product expected to trial in about a year from now - additional subscription pricing once introduced. They are working out pricing still...if it is priced at $200 per seat that results in a few extra mil of revenue per annum pretty fast if adopted by existing customers.

I believe that we are looking at a real winner here in the medium-long term here. This business has a much better model compared to a few years ago. The margins are much higher now than then, customers appear quite sticky and content, leadership is credible (look at WTC today) and continued growth appears intact. I think patience is still required for maiden and growing NPAT before it is truly noticed and the big gains are made by early investors."

Happy holder here. Bought in at $0.92. As typically happens SP plummeted so I bought several more tranches at $0.45. Didn't put anything into the capital raise and SP now at $1.16.

They seem to be a company that keeps growing and delivering.

It may be getting a bit over cooked at the moment but that takeover offer at $1.00 seems like ancient history.

Im wondering when they are going to announce moving into other countries markets. The USA has been a very fertile proving ground

and 250,000 shares crossing at close at $1.18. Whats not to like about today!

Edit. Lets make that 300,000

Closed $1.08 on ASX.

Last Price / Today's Change
$1.080  +$0.155 (16.756%)
Volume - 752,784
Bid / Offer Range
$1.050 - $1.150

Interesting to see how this opens on NZX tomorrow morning.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Oct 30, 2025, 07:29 PMClosed $1.08 on ASX.

Interesting to see how this opens on NZX tomorrow morning.

Open at $NZ 1.21..... not bad eh?

Large cross on NZX,

Be interesting open on ASX

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Oct 31, 2025, 11:16 AMLarge cross on NZX,

Be interesting open on ASX

$1.15 on ASX. Prices being supported by good volume.

What are we missing?

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Oct 31, 2025, 12:36 PMWhat are we missing?

Not missing anything..... well positioned and feeling the love.

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 01, 2025, 07:48 AMNot missing anything..... well positioned and feeling the love.

Some broker in Aust has a target price of $1.40 AUD. This from the other channel..

Looks like Regal Funds is a believer and has helped drive the SP to current highs.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/461812/attachment/455665/461812-455665.pdf

For some holders it's Deja vu all over again.  ;)

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 03, 2025, 11:26 AMLooks like Regal Funds is a believer and has helped drive the SP to current highs.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/461812/attachment/455665/461812-455665.pdf

For some holders it's Deja vu all over again.  ;)

And they just bought more https://www.nzx.com/announcements/461999.

Love it when these guys pay double my average price.

IKE share price down 10% today to $1.025 on small volumes.

Lots of tree shaking going on...... take care holders, your patience is being tested.

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 19, 2025, 05:28 PMIKE share price down 10% today to $1.025 on small volumes.

Lots of tree shaking going on...... take care holders, your patience is being tested.

Its only caught up to the falls on ASX over last 2 weeks, hence todays fall

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Nov 19, 2025, 05:49 PMIts only caught up to the falls on ASX over last 2 weeks, hence todays fall

IKE still showing a 110% SP gain YTD so I guess we shouldn't grumble too much.

Trade of 1,959,665 on NZX just before Half Year. Interesting timing.

Half Year Result out. All very encouraging.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/463560

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Nov 28, 2025, 08:36 AMHalf Year Result out. All very encouraging.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/463560

Better than I was expecting.


Highlights include:
 • Exit run rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue ~NZ$19.4m annualized (+47% vs pcp).
 • Strong growth of recognized platform subscription revenue to ~NZ$8.8m (+35% vs pcp).
 • Total revenue of NZ$12.9m (+6% vs pcp), noting IKE's lower margin services revenue component is down vs pcp because of short-term volatility in the fibre communications market.
 • Reiteration of FY26 guidance for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis within 2H26.
 • Gross margin of NZ$9.6m (+18% vs pcp).
 • Gross margin percentage increased to 75% (up from pcp of 67%).
 • Net loss of $4.3m (39% improvement from pcp)
 • Cash operating expenses were materially the same as pcp, while executing the above growth.
 • Launch of AI companion capability within the core IKE Office Pro product, called PolePilot , a game-changing AI-driven automation for electric utility distribution network analysis. This delivers material productivity gains for customers using IKE's core platform, also driving increased ARPU for IKE.
 • Total cash of NZ$34m as at 30 September 2025, with no debt, puts IKE in a strong financial position to execute the product roadmap and market development.
 • In the period, IKE completed a significantly oversubscribed A$24 million capital raise (approximately NZ$26 million), demonstrating strong institutional and retail investor support.
 • In September, IKE was elevated to the ASX All Ordinaries Index, which tracks the 500 largest companies listed on ASX by market capitalization.


Regal Funds still buying IKE..... now at 9.2%

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/463563/attachment/457877/463563-457877.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 28, 2025, 09:26 AMBetter than I was expecting.


Highlights include:
 • Exit run rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue ~NZ$19.4m annualized (+47% vs pcp).
 • Strong growth of recognized platform subscription revenue to ~NZ$8.8m (+35% vs pcp).
 • Total revenue of NZ$12.9m (+6% vs pcp), noting IKE's lower margin services revenue component is down vs pcp because of short-term volatility in the fibre communications market.
 • Reiteration of FY26 guidance for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis within 2H26.
 • Gross margin of NZ$9.6m (+18% vs pcp).
 • Gross margin percentage increased to 75% (up from pcp of 67%).
 • Net loss of $4.3m (39% improvement from pcp)
 • Cash operating expenses were materially the same as pcp, while executing the above growth.
 • Launch of AI companion capability within the core IKE Office Pro product, called PolePilot , a game-changing AI-driven automation for electric utility distribution network analysis. This delivers material productivity gains for customers using IKE's core platform, also driving increased ARPU for IKE.
 • Total cash of NZ$34m as at 30 September 2025, with no debt, puts IKE in a strong financial position to execute the product roadmap and market development.
 • In the period, IKE completed a significantly oversubscribed A$24 million capital raise (approximately NZ$26 million), demonstrating strong institutional and retail investor support.
 • In September, IKE was elevated to the ASX All Ordinaries Index, which tracks the 500 largest companies listed on ASX by market capitalization.


Regal Funds still buying IKE..... now at 9.2%

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/463563/attachment/457877/463563-457877.pdf

Regal buying.

Might be about time for another, more realistic takeover offer.

Quote from: Minimoke on Nov 28, 2025, 09:55 AMRegal buying.

Might be about time for another, more realistic takeover offer.

I suspect that's Regal's cunning plan.....however I would prefer IKE to carry on as is.

ps Nice to see the market seems to agree with my "better than expected" from earlier today.

Onwards and upwards.

For Bar Review

ikeGPS (IKE) delivered a solid, largely pre-released 1H26 result, supported by continued subscription momentum, expanding margins, and progress on product execution. Total revenue of NZ$12.8m grew +6% year-on-year, with subscription revenue growth of +35% mostly offset by softer hardware and transaction segments. Subscriptions now represent 69% of total revenue, underscoring IKE's shift toward recurring software income and lifting group gross margin to 75% (1H25: 70%). Operating expenses were broadly flat at NZ$14.7m, with R&D and support costs in line with expectations, but sales and marketing was +10% ahead of expectations, at NZ$5.3m, as IKE moves to accelerate resourcing post its capital raise. With NZ$34m in cash and no debt, the company remains well funded to execute its expanded product roadmap and lift sales and marketing capability. Management reaffirmed expectations for cash-flow breakeven on a run-rate basis in 2H26. We make minor changes to our estimates, and our blended spot valuation rises +NZ1cps to NZ$1.13.

What's changed?
Earnings: FY26 EBITDA estimate lifts +NZ$0.5m, while FY27/FY28 fall -NZ$1.1m/-NZ$0.7m on revised cost assumptions.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation lifts +1% to NZ$1.13, on a modestly higher DCF offset by peer multiple weakness.
Subscription momentum maintained
Subscription revenue rose +35% against the prior year to NZ$8.8m, supported by continuing momentum in IKE Office Pro and PoleForeman. Growth reflected both new customer additions and cross-sell/upsell activity, with seat licences up +55% to 9,283 and +12 net subscription customer additions, taking the base to 423. These dynamics supported a +48% increase in the annualised subscription exit run rate (ERR) to NZ$19.4m, reinforcing the structural shift toward recurring software income. Segment gross margin expanded +6.2pp to 92.9% versus the same period last year. Management noted continued momentum into 3Q26 to date.

PolePilot to take off in 2H26
The September launch of PolePilot, an AI-driven companion embedded in IKE Office Pro and offered as a compulsory module at ~US$200 per seat per annum, has lifted average per-seat pricing by +10%, enhancing ARR growth through 2H26. Alongside two customer council-backed modules now in development, this reinforces IKE's product cadence and the strength of its customer engagement model. Management reaffirmed guidance for +35% subscription growth and EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis in 2H26, underscoring continued momentum across the US utility sector's digital transition.

Transaction and Hardware revenues soften
Transaction revenue fell -32% against the prior year to NZ$2.7m, reflecting weaker US fibre-linked activity following funding delays under Republican policy settings. Segment gross margin contracted to 17.2% (1H25: 36.9%). Hardware revenue declined -21% to NZ$1.3m, although gross margin improved to 69.3% (1H25: 57.9%) due to a higher services mix and tighter pricing discipline. While both segments remain volatile, they now represent less than one-third of total revenue, reducing their influence on the group.

1H26 results review
IKE's 1H26 result reflected a short-term moderation in overall top-line growth but highlighted ongoing margin expansion and a robust outlook. Operating revenue rose +6% to NZ$12.8m, with strong platform subscription growth offset by softness in transactions and hardware. Gross margin expanded +8.1ppts to 74.6%, driven by a higher proportion of subscription revenue (69% versus 54% in 1H25). IKE reported an improved net loss of -NZ$4.4m (1H25: -NZ$7.1m), underpinned by: (1) higher gross margin; and (2) a -1% decline in operating expenses, with lower expensed R&D (-20%) more than offsetting higher sales and marketing (+15%) and corporate costs (+9%). The company's cash position increased to NZ$34m (1H25: NZ$10.3m) following the August 2025 capital raise, providing ample headroom for the development of two customer council-backed software modules. Divisionally:

Subscriptions: Revenue lifted +35% year-on-year to NZ$8.8m, driven by continued PoleForeman momentum (structural pole loading revenue up +NZ$2.0m to NZ$3.8m) and robust IKE Office Pro growth (up +8% to NZ$3.0m). Subscription seats grew +55% to 9,283 (1H25: 5,990), supported by new enterprise additions and cross-sell activity, lifting the annualised subscription exit run rate to NZ$19.4m (+48%). Gross margin improved +6.2ppts to 92.9%.

Transactions: Revenue declined by -32% versus 1H25 to NZ$2.7m, reflecting reduced spend from US fibre-linked customers amid funding uncertainty under the Republican administration. Transaction volumes fell to ~100k (from ~160k) while the average price declined by -6%. Gross margin contracted to 17.2% (1H25: 36.9%). Though volatile, management expects recovery over the medium term as communications market funding stabilises.
Hardware and other services: Revenue fell by -21% to NZ$1.3m, while gross margin improved to 69.3% (1H25: 57.9%), reflecting a mix shift toward services, away from traditional hardware, and improved pricing discipline.

Earnings revisions
We make minor revisions to our estimates following IKE's 1H26 result, which was broadly consistent with expectations. Our revenue forecasts remain unchanged, and our estimate for subscription revenue growth of +35% remains aligned with management's FY26 guidance for +35% or greater expansion, supported by the contribution from PolePilot through 2H26. Transactional softness was anticipated, and given the fall in its percentage of group revenues and earnings, it is unlikely to affect the FY26/FY27 revenue trajectory materially. We continue to model accelerated R&D investment (following the September 2025 capital raise).

We lift our sales and marketing expense forecasts +9%/+9%/+5% across FY26/FY27/FY28 respectively, reflecting the higher-than-expected spend in 1H26 and an upcoming 'expansion of sales and marketing resources to capitalize on strong market demand'. We view the uplift in sales and marketing spend as appropriate given IKE's materially stronger financial position post-raise, but we maintain our expectations for sales and marketing expense to decline steadily as a percentage of revenue across our forecast horizon.

General and administrative expenses decline -16% in FY26 following the reversal of a prior assumption in which capital-raising costs had been assigned to corporate expenses rather than netted against capital raise proceeds, as was reported. The combined effect of these changes sees our FY26/FY27/FY28 operating EBITDA estimates move +NZ$0.5m/-NZ$1.1m/-NZ$0.7m respectively. We maintain our expectation of EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis in 2H26.

Just took $1.00 on ASX, NZX at $1.14. 3rd quarter update should be due in the next week.

29th Jan for update. I won't be able to catch the report from ECO, if someone has is going to be able to watch be good if they could report on it.

Thanks GWD

Trading at $0.80 on ASX. Currently down $0.12 today on just over 100k shares.

Interesting ahead of tomorrows update

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 28, 2026, 05:21 PMTrading at $0.80 on ASX. Currently down $0.12 today on just over 100k shares.

Interesting ahead of tomorrows update

Appears to be tracking to plan. $32m in cash. Nice. We cant be far away from expecting a dividend.



FY26 guidance reiterated for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue.

New product initiatives tracking to plan

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to provide a performance update for the nine months to 31 December 2025. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal.

Highlights include:
• Exit Run Rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue ~NZ$21.1m annualized (+35% vs pcp).
• Strong growth of recognized platform subscription revenue in the nine-month period to 31 December 2025 of ~NZ$14.1m (+38% vs pcp).
• Total revenue of ~NZ$19.8m (+7% vs pcp).
• Reiteration of FY26 guidance for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and EBITDA breakeven on a monthly run-rate basis by the end of FY26.
• Gross margin percentage increased to ~79% (up from pcp of 68%).
• Total cash of NZ$32.3m as at 31 December 2025, net receivables of NZ$2.9m, with no debt. This puts IKE in a strong financial position to execute its product roadmap and market development.

Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 29, 2026, 09:28 AMAppears to be tracking to plan. $32m in cash. Nice. We cant be far away from expecting a dividend.



FY26 guidance reiterated for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue.

New product initiatives tracking to plan

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to provide a performance update for the nine months to 31 December 2025. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal.

Highlights include:
• Exit Run Rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue ~NZ$21.1m annualized (+35% vs pcp).
• Strong growth of recognized platform subscription revenue in the nine-month period to 31 December 2025 of ~NZ$14.1m (+38% vs pcp).
• Total revenue of ~NZ$19.8m (+7% vs pcp).
• Reiteration of FY26 guidance for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and EBITDA breakeven on a monthly run-rate basis by the end of FY26.
• Gross margin percentage increased to ~79% (up from pcp of 68%).
• Total cash of NZ$32.3m as at 31 December 2025, net receivables of NZ$2.9m, with no debt. This puts IKE in a strong financial position to execute its product roadmap and market development.

Closed at $0.855 on ASX last night. Solid quarter, 4th quarted seems to have started strongly..

Dividend?? I wonder if they have even continued that??

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 29, 2026, 09:43 AMClosed at $0.855 on ASX last night. Solid quarter, 4th quarted seems to have started strongly..

Dividend?? I wonder if they have even continued that??

I was a bit tongue in cheek with the divi comment. I like companies with cash and no debt. My first preference is that they use that to grow the profitability of the business.

Failing that, investors should get a return (assuming accounts payable aren't out of control)

My notes on IKE 1HFY26 presentation as today

Low key presentation from CFO (no Glen Milnes)

See the tables in this link  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/466639/attachment/461244/466639-461244.pdf

Key negative
Transaction revenue 45% down on pp, this put down by US Govt's mid 2025 cancelation of all contracts and requirement for providers/contractors to re-apply plus late 2025 US Govt shut down.  Comment made that there are 4Qtr signs that activity is now recommencing.

Key positives
- total revenue $19.8 mill up 7% on pp
- Gross Margin improvement from 88% to 93%
- Subscription revenue up 38% on pp and in 4th Qtr up 44% to-date.
- Pole Forman has generated over $10mill and "potential upside is still significant"
- In terms of new developments AI assisted Pole Pilot now in customer trial and likely for introduction later in 2026. Pole Pilot is getting v positive revues and likely to  sell for $US4,000 RPU versus Pole Forman at $US2,000 RPU, ie double the unit RPU price for Pole Foreman.
- With $32 mill cash on hand,  future cap raise unlikely and would only be considered for (say,) a significant 'bolt on' aquisition

Note ex For Bar this morning...

ikeGPS (IKE) delivered another mixed performance update in 3Q26, but one that reinforced the underlying quality of its growing recurring revenue streams. Subscription momentum remained strong, margins continued to expand, customer adds were solid, and the product roadmap is progressing broadly in line with expectations.

While total revenue growth moderated due to continued weakness in the Transactions segment, the transition toward higher-quality, recurring software revenues at solid margins is now well advanced. PoleForeman has scaled rapidly to a material ARR base in just two years, while newer AI-enabled products are beginning to enhance pricing and deepen customer relationships.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance, including +35% or greater Subscription growth and EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis by year-end. R&D for IKE's two new product modules is also on track. In our view, the update underscores a business that is executing steadily, with improving earnings quality and a long growth runway supported by favourable US utility infrastructure tailwinds.

We lift our margin assumptions, and our blended spot valuation rises +8% to NZ$1.28.

Good to see IKE SP climbing again after it got beaten down around the sale of 2 mill shares.

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 11, 2026, 05:17 PMGood to see IKE SP climbing again after it got beaten down around the sale of 2 mill shares.

I suspect its short lived.

ASX trend still pretty grim. I guess the concerns about software/AI related stocks has fallen into this one. Odd given they are building their own AI modules which has been well articulated to market...

Its onlt 6.5 weeks to go before end of financial year so guess we will get 4th quarter update sometime in April and hope its continued positive news before FY result in May.

You're right GWD....... I was getting carried away.... I'll shut up until the results are out.

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 13, 2026, 03:30 PMYou're right GWD....... I was getting carried away.... I'll shut up until the results are out.

LOL, Its all very panicky on small volume on fear. They have obviously forgotten or are completely ignorant to the fact that IKE raised caqpitial to build these AI modules that the Customer Council was asking for

Totally Irrational but thats the market

Big crossing of 1.2 mill shares today at $1.04

Market getting a tab excited ahead of next week's likely update?

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 16, 2026, 01:54 PMBig crossing of 1.2 mill shares today at $1.04

Market getting a tab excited ahead of next week's likely update?

Hmm certainly is interesting timing. Have wondered the last week or so on ASX if there was some news out there as there was a volume increase with share price.

Guess we will find out soon, very soon.

IKE looking good with this update...........well worth reading the detail........onwards & upwards.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/471388
 
 ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to provide a performance update for the 12 months to 31 March 2026. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal.
 
 Highlights include:
 • FY26 Platform Subscription Revenue ~NZ$19.2m (+33% vs pcp) — FY26 guidance of approximately 35% subscription revenue growth materially delivered.
 • Positive underlying EBITDA achieved in the month of March 2026 — FY26 guidance delivered.
 • FY27 guidance for similar levels of growth for Platform Subscription revenue.
 • Exit Run Rate (ERR) of Platform Subscription Revenue ~NZ$20.7m annualised at 31 March 2026 (+18% vs pcp; +21% in constant currency). Noting one larger, long-term communications customer completed a project in 4Q aided by IKE technology. This was announced to the market early in the FY26 year. This national group remains a customer and excluding this project completion ERR Platform Subscription Revenue would have exited the year at +30% in constant currency.
 • FY26 Total Revenue ~NZ$26.6m (+6% vs pcp)
 • Gross margin percentage increased to ~81% (up from pcp of 69%). Platform Subscription Gross Margin ~94%.
 • FY26 gross margin of ~NZ$21.4m (+23% vs pcp)
 • Total Cash of ~NZ$33m (ahead of the ~NZ$32.3m reported at 3Q FY26), net receivables ~NZ$4.3m and no debt as at 31 March

Interesting aside from yesterday's update. Glen was asked about the risk of disruption to IKE caused by AI.

His response was quite the opposite. He saw AI as an "accelerator", stating that IKE are achieving quick enhancements and new additions more cheaply and faster working with staff in Mexico and using AI. He also hinted of a new IKE product/service to be released "very very soon."

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 24, 2026, 08:34 AMInteresting aside from yesterday's update. Glen was asked about the risk of disruption to IKE caused by AI.

His response was quite the opposite. He saw AI as an "accelerator", stating that IKE are achieving quick enhancements and new additions more cheaply and faster working with staff in Mexico and using AI. He also hinted of a new IKE product/service to be released "very very soon."

Yes LF the software scare was miss understood by investors of IKE.
For Bar update below, interesting reading

Closed FY26 in better shape than the quarter-on-quarter decline in exit ARR would suggest, with the run-rate impacted by a one-off communications project completion. Management materially delivered on the two key commitments for FY26, with Subscription revenue growth broadly in line with guidance and positive underlying EBITDA on a monthly basis in March. Underlying economics continue to improve, with Subscription mix now 72% of revenue versus 57% in FY25, group gross margin stepping higher, PoleForeman scaling to a material ARR base within two years of launch, and PolePilot lifting ARPU across the IKE Office Pro base with no churn. FY27 now rests on seat growth, the PolePilot price uplift flowing through, continued customer additions, and progress on the council-led modules. US grid modernisation trends remain supportive, and continued execution on product rollout builds further confidence in IKE's pending product launches. Our spot valuation lifts +1cps to NZ$1.15.

What's changed?
Earnings: FY26 EBITDA estimate lifts +NZ$0.5m, while FY27 remains broadly flat and FY28 lifts +NZ$0.2m.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation lifts +1cps to NZ$1.15, with weaker comparables partially offsetting a higher DCF.
FY26 guidance largely delivered, albeit exit ARR softer than anticipated
Platform Subscription revenue for FY26 grew +33% to NZ$19.2m, a modest -4% miss to our expectations and slightly below management's ~+35% or greater guidance, reflecting the timing of contract signings in March. Exit ARR was the weaker print, up only +18% to NZ$20.7m and down from 3Q26's NZ$21.1m, following the completion of a project with communications customer Charter in 4Q26. Excluding that timing, constant currency exit ARR grew +30%. Impressively, PoleForeman now sits at ~NZ$11m ARR with ~200 customers subscribed within two years of launch, well ahead of initial expectations.

Margin uplift exceeded expectations
Total revenue grew +6% to NZ$26.6m, while gross profit increased +23% to NZ$21.4m, with group margin expanding to 81% versus 69% in FY25. Subscription margin reached 94% for FY26, implying a fourth quarter segment gross margin of as high as 96%. Subscription revenue now represents 72% of group revenue, versus 57% in FY25. Transaction revenue fell -35% to NZ$5.0m on US rural fibre weakness, although 4Q26 segment margin improved to 49% as work shifted offshore. PolePilot's ~10% price uplift across the IKE Office Pro subscription base landed with no churn, with the benefit primarily to be recognised in FY27.

FY27 outlook remains optimistic, with IKE guiding for similar Subscription revenue growth to FY26
FY27 guidance for similar Subscription revenue growth to FY26 is credible. PolePilot pricing will flow through in FY27, net customer additions are holding, and +15% FY26 seat growth annualises into FY27 expansion. Beta release of IKE's first new product is targeted within nine months, with the second now in full-scale development. With ~NZ$33m cash and no debt, funding is not a constraint.

Earnings revisions
We revise our forecasts following IKE's FY26 trading update. FY26 Subscription revenue is rebased to NZ$19.2m, with FY27 segment growth maintained at ~+33%, in line with guidance. We recalibrate FY26 gross margins across all segments, lift Subscription segment long-term margins +1ppt to 95% (previously 94%), and raise our medium-term Hardware margin assumption to 80% (from 74%), reflecting the segment's continued mix shift towards higher-margin service revenues.

We modestly accelerate our new product revenue assumptions, now forecasting initial revenue contributions in late FY27 (with management expecting first contract signings in late 3Q27 or 4Q27) and increasing FY28 revenue to NZ$6m (+NZ$3m). Increased confidence in the product roadmap is supported by: (1) strong PoleForeman execution, with ARR reaching NZ$11m within two years; (2) PolePilot development and rollout, having enabled ~+10% price uplift across the IKE Office Pro subscription base; (3) management expectations for pricing to be well above the US$2k PoleForman ARPU; and (4) first-time disclosure of customer council members (including Duke Energy, Southern Company, Exelon, Entergy), representing some of the largest utility providers in the US.

AI as an accelerant, not a disruptor
Management used the results call to argue that AI widens IKE's moat rather than threatening it. They pointed to three pillars: (1) IKE is embedded in utility engineering standards: when Standards Directors co-create product specifications with IKE, those specifications get written into utility engineering rulebooks, so every engineer in that utility must use IKE; (2) the company has a proprietary dataset of more than 20m human-engineered power assets that general-purpose LLMs cannot replicate; and (3) IKE has an independently assessed net promoter score (NPS) of 91, built over a decade across North American utilities and communications customers. We made the same argument across the sector in our Tech Sector: The Software Endgame—Who Owns the Workflow? report (13 April 2026): vendors embedded in critical workflows with deep domain expertise and proprietary data are structurally better positioned than the recent tech selloff implies. PolePilot proves it commercially, with a ~+10% price uplift across the IKE Office Pro base landing with no churn. We note 50% of Office Pro renewals fell within 4Q26, with most of the benefit flowing through FY27. IKE has also built its own proprietary AI operating system, rolled out across the organisation with training partner Section AI, with the CFO guiding R&D as a share of revenue to track materially lower over time on AI-led efficiencies, from 54% in FY25 (expensed and capitalised) to our forecasts of 41% in FY26 and 27% by FY30.

Wonder if Untamed hanging in waiting for the big day

She was very passionate about IKE

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Apr 24, 2026, 08:45 AMYes LF the software scare was miss understood by investors of IKE.
For Bar update below, interesting reading

"....FY26 guidance largely delivered, albeit exit ARR softer than anticipated
Platform Subscription revenue for FY26 grew +33% to NZ$19.2m, a modest -4% miss to our expectations and slightly below management's ~+35% or greater guidance, reflecting the timing of contract signings in March. Exit ARR was the weaker print, up only +18% to NZ$20.7m and down from 3Q26's NZ$21.1m, following the completion of a project with communications customer Charter in 4Q26. Excluding that timing, constant currency exit ARR grew +30%. Impressively, PoleForeman now sits at ~NZ$11m ARR with ~200 customers subscribed within two years of launch, well ahead of initial expectations....

Margin uplift exceeded expectations
Total revenue grew +6% to NZ$26.6m, while gross profit increased +23% to NZ$21.4m, with group margin expanding to 81% versus 69% in FY25. Subscription margin reached 94% for FY26, implying a fourth quarter segment gross margin of as high as 96%. Subscription revenue now represents 72% of group revenue, versus 57% in FY25. Transaction revenue fell -35% to NZ$5.0m on US rural fibre weakness, although 4Q26 segment margin improved to 49% as work shifted offshore. PolePilot's ~10% price uplift across the IKE Office Pro subscription base landed with no churn, with the benefit primarily to be recognised in FY27.

FY27 outlook remains optimistic, with IKE guiding for similar Subscription revenue growth to FY26
FY27 guidance for similar Subscription revenue growth to FY26 is credible. PolePilot pricing will flow through in FY27, net customer additions are holding, and +15% FY26 seat growth annualises into FY27 expansion. Beta release of IKE's first new product is targeted within nine months, with the second now in full-scale development. With ~NZ$33m cash and no debt, funding is not a constraint.

Earnings revisions
We revise our forecasts following IKE's FY26 trading update. FY26 Subscription revenue is rebased to NZ$19.2m, with FY27 segment growth maintained at ~+33%, in line with guidance. We recalibrate FY26 gross margins across all segments, lift Subscription segment long-term margins +1ppt to 95% (previously 94%), and raise our medium-term Hardware margin assumption to 80% (from 74%), reflecting the segment's continued mix shift towards higher-margin service revenues.

Add in healthy bank balance and cashflow positive....

Crikey, I might have to shift my healthy holding from the "speculative"  portfolio to my "high conviction" portfolio.

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 24, 2026, 12:37 PMCrikey, I might have to shift my healthy holding from the "speculative"  portfolio to my "high conviction" portfolio.

Equities Research  IKE update....... SP target  circa $NZ 1.30

https://ranos.io/files/report/?f=78309741-7dac-4fe6-8d9c-84f94605b622&srid=4ee45a42-4406-4586-ab87-60e4994eaca9&m_id=f3551399-c806-4e51-9d86-16d4f7accc0c

(Note figures in $Aus)

Seems these guys agree with me.

Interesting start on ASX. NZX has followed...

Last Price / Today's Change
$1.040  +$0.040 (4.000%)

Volume
192,798

Bid / Offer Range
$1.040 - $1.060

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 05, 2026, 12:31 PMInteresting start on ASX. NZX has followed...

Last Price / Today's Change
$1.040  +$0.040 (4.000%)

Volume
192,798

Bid / Offer Range
$1.040 - $1.060

Finished the day at NZ$1.285.

Finally something in my portfolio I have doubled my money on. Took 3 years. But patience!

;D

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 24, 2026, 09:26 AMWonder if Untamed hanging in waiting for the big day

She was very passionate about IKE

Big trade of 2m shares on NZX. Someones accumlating.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 11, 2026, 01:53 PMBig trade of 2m shares on NZX. Someones accumlating.

Somebody seemed to offer a discount to get rid of the 2 million shares

Wonder who seller was ....probably somebody a few weeks ago before the excitement and taking a quick 20% profit