StockTalk

With Spark selling off 70% of their tower business,
         https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395197

shouldn't this have a decent impact on Infratil's Vodafone value?

Vodafone sells tower business for $1.7 Billion.

With its 50% shareholding in Vodafone, Infratil gets $850 million from the sale, and is reinvesting part of that with a 20% stake ($340m) in the new tower business.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395458

Infratil selling down a wee bit of LongRoad, getting a considerable increase in the revaluation of remaining holding.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/396170

Encouraging to see CEO buying 1.3mill shares on market at av SP of approx $9.05

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/396807

The CEO gave a bullish presentation to NZSA Welly this week which hinted that IFT still undervalued based on recent interest in their Longroad USA initiative.

"The transaction implies a pre-money valuation for Longroad common equity of US$2,000 million. Infratil and the NZ Super Fund will each also invest a further US$100 million and retain a ~37% stake. The balance of ~14% is owned by Longroad management......

Infratil chief executive Jason Boyes said that the pre-money valuation of Infratil's stake at completion implied by the transaction of US$800 million was significantly higher than the independent valuation received on 31 March 2022 of US$220 million, and listed market consensus. It was also in line with the enterprise valuation multiple achieved for the sale of Tilt Renewables' Australian business in 2021, at 40 times Longroad's FY2023E proportionate EBITDA of ~US$83 million[1].

"Infratil is extremely happy with this outcome. We remain very optimistic about the opportunities and outlook for Longroad and are pleased to be increasing our investment as part of this transaction. Longroad is well-positioned in a key geography, with high-quality operating assets, built-in growth through its development portfolio, and a proven team. The new investment from a leading global infrastructure investor in MEAG is a strong endorsement of the business and the sector, and we look forward to working with them."

And all this from an approx $US 200 mill initial investment from IFT..... now valued at $US 2,000 mill.. ..Seems renewable energy could be a very desireable sector for investors.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/396170

.....and CEO still buying (another 71,000) shares. Holders will be pleased to see this confidence.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/396886/376443.pdf

That's 2 million bucks worth :o . Must be pretty confident alright.

And now another Director buying.... 55,000 shares. Auspicious.

https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/397251

Yeah on market another half a Million. Might have to get more ;D

Nice 20% gain in SP over the last 3 months.... (just saying.)

So - must be a good time to sell? Remember - the market giveth and the market taketh away ...

Some large companies leading the renewable energy sector not doing that flash these days (e.g. Siemens Energy / Gamesa). A combination of high materials cost which can't be charged to customers (fixed price contracts) and brutal competition due to too many players in the industry.

Just wondering when Longroad, Galileo and Gurin Energy start feeling the impact?

 

Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 06, 2022, 10:06 AMSo - must be a good time to sell? Remember - the market giveth and the market taketh away ...

Each to their own. Traders will trade. Long term holders will hold and some may even use recent gains to increase their holdings using DCA to stay relatively 'safe'.

FWIW from a TA perspective IFT now above my 30/90day MA Golden Cross territory. Nice example of squeezed Bolly bands too.

Your caution is noted and may well be warrented. Time will tell.

ps...... this quote from Dark Side poster Alokdhir is worth noting;

"IFT is the only major stock whose market cap has increased a lot in last 3 months due to SP going up around 22% ....with index rebalancing coming ahead ...its very possible some funds have to increase its holding based on new market cap thus brokers are accumulating for them
It may peak around 3rd Friday of the month ie 16th Sept ...like it did last time in June too !!!"

V=http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/399247/379551.pdf

Morrison and Co has completed its acquisition of 4.37 mill IFT shares at an av SP of $9.16.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the SP in the short term following this acquisition and support.

One New Zealand - getting it ready for sale?  The play book looks familiar.

Quote from: Left Field on Sep 22, 2022, 10:27 AMV=http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/399247/379551.pdf

Morrison and Co has completed its acquisition of 4.37 mill IFT shares at an av SP of $9.16.
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the SP in the short term following this acquisition and support.

Down to $8.75 today...... where will IFT drop to??

Anyways....some would say it's an opportunity to buy at prices below fair value as determined by CEO and Morrison's in their recent multimillion $ purchases.

Down a tab below $8.00 today.

Morrisons and CEO now down about 12% on their big buy-up.

In the absence of upside news, likely to sink to the mid $7's.

IFT's presentation to Sydney investors re it's Data Centres FYI

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/400836/381492.pdf

How's IFT going with Retire Australia

Way market valuing these retire things ift might need to make an adjustment to the value they have put on it ..non-cash of course

1HFY23 results out.....looking good..... plus a 4% increase in interim divi.... 10 yr average return 20.5%

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402348

Proportionate EBITDAF was $275.6 million – an 11.0% rise on the $248.4 million from the same period the previous year - reflecting strong performances from CDC Data Centres, Vodafone and Wellington Airport. Proportionate EBITDAF for the year to 31 March 2023 is forecast to be between $510 million and $540 million.

"In terms of our returns to shareholders, we will pay a fully imputed interim dividend of 6.75 cents per share, a 4% increase from the prior. Infratil's share price also rose from $8.25 to $8.65 over the period, with an after-tax return to shareholders over the six months of 6.5% and a return over the last ten years of 20.5%," Mr Boyes said.

Crikey there's a lot to like in this update..... some more gems

• Vodafone - Following completion of the tower sale, Infratil will have
  received almost $1 billion in cash distributions in the just over three years
  since acquiring Vodafone for $1.03 billion, while still retaining a 49.9%
  shareholding in the Vodafone business.
• Cash on hand $400 mill
• Gearing at 13.9% (well below range of 30%)
• Renewable Energy the next 'big thing' with huge pipeline on projects underway in USA and Europe

Didn't comment on this yesterday as I was busy elsewhere, but I like the thinking.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/403202

Infratil commenced the strategic review because RetireAustralia had become a relatively small part of the portfolio. Infratil and the NZ Super Fund engaged with market participants over recent months to consider proposals to acquire the business. The strategic review concluded that retaining an interest in RetireAustralia and supporting its continued growth and performance will be the best way for Infratil and the NZ Super Fund to maximise value for all stakeholders.

Jason Boyes, Infratil Chief Executive, said "The RetireAustralia business is performing strongly on almost all metrics. Occupancy across the portfolio is at 93.3%, the highest level since 2017. The provision of quality retirement living options with integrated care to end-of-life is still an 'idea that matters' and Infratil is pleased to support RetireAustralia's continued growth and success."

IFT my only exposure to the retirement sector.

Wow, 1.8 million shares crossing at $23.60 late this aft.

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 30, 2022, 08:42 AMreview concluded that retaining an interest in RetireAustralia and supporting its continued growth and performance will be the best way for Infratil and the NZ Super Fund to maximise value for all stakeholders.

Corporate lingo for "we failed to hock this off for the normal exorbitant price we manage for get for our stuff"

Hope they don't try to sell the data center stake or might be tricky too seeing how public markets are valuing them.

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 30, 2022, 05:06 PMWow, 1.8 million shares crossing at $23.60 late this aft.

Whilst as a shareholder I'd quite like that price but I think you were looking at FPH? Was rebalancing day again and extended close  8)

IFT strengthening their focus on renewable energy..... a good announcement and another brick in the wall.

( I understand that IFT have hired back key members of the team from Tilt which IFT sold for $2 Billion. IFT's investment in this new initiative approx $219 million.)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/404099

Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said that Mint Renewables, the latest addition to
our global renewables portfolio, will invest in the development of wind,
solar PV, and storage solutions across Australia, and replicates the platform
model of Tilt Renewables. Infratil sold its 65.5% stake in Tilt last year for
NZ$2 billion.

"The establishment of Mint Renewables deepens shareholders' exposure to the
forecast surge in global demand for renewables over the next few decades,
complementing our renewable energy platforms across the United States
(Longroad), Europe (Galileo), Asia (Gurin Energy), as well as Manawa Energy
in New Zealand.

It has been a busy end to the year with lots of activity across our portfolio. We thought it was timely to share some of the highlights from the last month.

We were excited to announce the establishment of Mint Renewables, the latest addition to our global renewables portfolio. Mint Renewables will invest in the development of wind, solar, and storage solutions across Australia, and replicates the platform model we built at Tilt Renewables. The establishment of Mint Renewables deepens shareholders' exposure to the forecast surge in global demand for renewables over the next few decades, complementing our renewable energy platforms across the United States (Longroad Energy), Europe (Galileo), Asia (Gurīn Energy), as well as Manawa Energy in New Zealand. Read more

CDC Data Centres has recently opened two new, state-of-the-art hyperscale data centres in New Zealand. The two 14MW Silverdale and Hobsonville data centres are the largest and most secure centres of their type in New Zealand.

In addition to the facilities in Auckland, CDC has also announced that it is expanding its Eastern Creek data centre campus in Sydney with an additional A$1 billion of investment to commence in 2023. The Eastern Creek Campus already houses four data centres, delivering a combined capacity of 123MW, with construction of two more data centres to commence on site next year adding another 108MW of capacity. Read more

Vodafone New Zealand is excited to launch as One NZ in early 2023. Preparations are well underway for the change, which will mean it can invest more into its networks, onshore service, and technology solutions for customers across the country. Read more

Renewable's developer Longroad Energy, in which we hold a 37% investment, has announced the completion of its acquisition of the 98MW Titan Solar project in California. Titan sells power into the Californian market and produces enough energy for over 30,000 customers in Southern California. Read more

Renewable energy platform Galileo, in which we hold a 40% investment, has partnered with ENVIRIA to build a multi-gigawatt solar pipeline across Germany. Its aim is to deliver a meaningful contribution to Germany's ambition of accelerating its solar capacity by 20GW per annum. With local operational knowledge and pan-European experience, the partnership will build a pipeline that generates affordable energy to German customers. Read more

Wellington Airport achieved global recognition for its efforts to manage and reduce carbon emissions. The airport has achieved Level 2 Certification from the Airport Carbon Accreditation programme, which runs independent assessments of airports around the world. Level 2 (Reduction) is for airports with comprehensive emissions profile mapping and reductions in place. Read more

Pacific Radiology have opened a brand new, purpose-built radiology centre in Timaru, which conveniently brings multiple radiology services into the one branch. The addition of x-ray and CT scanning services at this new facility is especially important in meeting regional needs. Read more

We have recently completed a strategic review of our 50% investment in RetireAustralia, concluding that retaining our interest and supporting the business's continued growth is the best way for Infratil and the NZ Super Fund to maximise value for all stakeholders. The RetireAustralia business is performing strongly on almost all metrics, while the provision of quality retirement living options to cater for our residents' changing needs as they age is still an 'idea that matters' and we are pleased to support RetireAustralia's continued growth and success. Read more

We are also excited to share that our Chief Financial Officer, Phillippa Harford was recently named CFO of the Year in the Deloitte Top 200 Awards for 2022. It is fantastic to have the huge contribution Phillippa makes to Infratil acknowledged externally. The award is a significant acknowledgement of Phillippa's contribution to Infratil, which extends far beyond the traditional CFO role. Read more

Finally, we have also announced the appointment of Anne Urlwin as a Director of Infratil. Anne is an experienced and well-respected governance professional. Her current governance roles include directorships of publicly listed Precinct Properties, Vector and Ventia and previously as a director of publicly listed Tilt Renewables, Chorus and Meridian Energy. Anne's appointment will take effect from 1 January 2023, taking over from Mark Tume, who retires on 31 December 2022.

Mark Tume served as Chair from 2013 to May 2022, and he has been on Infratil's Board since 2007. In 2007, Infratil's market capitalisation was $1.2 billion, and it is now $6.2 billion. Mark has been part of Infratil's transition into a global infrastructure investor which provides New Zealand shareholders with exposure to a diverse portfolio across digital infrastructure, renewables, healthcare and airports across the world.

We would also like to thank you for your continued support of Infratil, and we wish you all the best for the holiday season. We look forward to providing more updates on the exciting growth and opportunities across the portfolio in 2023.


For additional updates, you can also follow Infratil on LinkedIn.



Shareholder update emailed today - just if anyone interested...... 8)

IFT release to ASX.....Data Centre investments growing in value and scope with improved gearing. Naaice!

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230103/pdf/45kbqhg4k5lv1y.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 03, 2023, 11:21 AMIFT release to ASX.....Data Centre investments growing in value and scope with improved gearing. Naaice!

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230103/pdf/45kbqhg4k5lv1y.pdf

I reckon it's also gonna reignite the howls of indignation around the 2023 full year International Portfolio Annual Incentive Fee accrual, paid to Morrison and Co, which will be about as big as its name is long.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130938735/vodafone-says-name-change-to-one-nz-not-threatened-by-tvnz-trademark-challenge

Vodafone saying 'nothing to see here.'  I suspect TVNZ might have a different point of view on that. 

Nice update from IFT saying their Renewable Energy goals are on target.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405617

I recall the IFT CEO saying at a NZSHA meeting last year that the great thing about their investment in Arizona's renewable energy production was that they got Arizona's low costs and low taxes, yet could sell surplus electricity across the border to California at peak prices.

Naaaice.

Infratil's investment in Vodafone looking good with today's Musk/starlink partnership announcement.

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/vodafone-marks-first-day-as-one-nz-by-revealing-celltower-in-the-sky-partnership-with-elon-musk-s-starlink/

Exciting times for holders......nice to have an ever strengthening renewable energy holding in your portfolio. Here's the latest update from IFT.

Across our portfolio

One New Zealand has officially launched its new brand and announced a new collaboration with SpaceX. One New Zealand's mobile network will work in conjunction with SpaceX's constellation of Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit to deliver mobile coverage to One New Zealand customers across the entire country and out to its territorial limit. A key rationale for the Company's rebrand was to invest more in New Zealand, which is demonstrated by the collaboration.

Currently, its mobile network covers 98 percent of the New Zealand population, however, due to the length and geography of the country, almost 50 percent of the landmass still has no coverage. When the service goes live, there will be coverage across the country whether you're out on your boat, climbing a mountain, fixing a remote road or on your farm.

"This means the immediate communication issues experienced after Cyclone Gabrielle will be consigned to history. It will give our customers more freedom with 100 percent coverage across the country and means New Zealanders and New Zealand businesses are safer with us," says One New Zealand CEO Jason Paris.



U.S. based renewables developer Longroad Energy has achieved financial close and commencement of construction of Sun Streams 3, its 285MWdc PV (215MWac) and 860MWh storage project located in Maricopa County, Arizona. Sun Streams 3 is expected to begin commercial operations in 2024 and will be the largest solar and storage project in Longroad's operational portfolio.

Sun Streams 3 will enhance electrical capacity and system reliability in Arizona; the project's total output, enough to power 90,000 homes, will be purchased by Arizona Public Service via a long-term Power Purchase Agreement.



Following the announcement of Sun Streams 3, Longroad Energy has also announced that the Umbriel Solar project - its 202MWdc (150MWac) PV project located in Polk County Texas - had achieved financial close and has begun construction.

Umbriel is Longroad's sixth greenfield renewable energy project in Texas to reach financial close and is the Company's first project in Texas' MISO footprint. Umbriel's total output, enough to power more than 30,000 homes, will be purchased by Entergy Texas Inc. via a long-term PPA.



Our European renewable energy platform Galileo is moving forward with the development of a second offshore floating project in Italy – Barium Bay. The scheme has an installed capacity of 1.1GW and will be located more than 40km from the coastline. Once operational, the project will generate enough green electricity to supply the equivalent of more than 1 million Italian households. This is Galileo's second joint venture with its Lupiae Maris development partners, Hope Group.



Qscan has announced the reopening of its newly rebuilt Windsor clinic, featuring state-of-the-art equipment, including the most advanced clinical MRI in the Southern Hemisphere, the Philips MR7700 3T with Ambient Experience.

Qscan Windsor is a comprehensive imaging clinic, offering x-ray, CT, ultrasound, MRI, nuclear medicine, BMD, DXA, dental imaging, and interventional procedures. Qscan is also pleased to bring its patients and referrers a dedicated women's imaging area including the latest 3D digital mammography technology.

Wellington Airport has converted $100 million of existing bank facilities into sustainability linked loans, creating direct financial incentives by aligning lower interest rates with meeting agreed sustainability targets.

The four main sustainability target areas for Wellington Airport are addressing greenhouse gas emissions, supporting and enabling low-emission commercial flights, internationally recognised Airport Carbon Accreditation and reducing the level of waste ending up in landfills.



At a portfolio level we were delighted to be among the first financial institutions in New Zealand to commit to establishing science-based emission reduction targets. We have registered with the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), which enables businesses to set ambitious emissions reductions targets in line with the latest climate science.

We want to give our shareholders confidence that our emissions reduction targets will be credible, comprehensive and in alignment with the science to support meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, adopted at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2015

Interesting to hear strong hints from Auckland city Finance Committee Chair Morris Williamson in a NZ radio interview today that Auckland city may sell its stake in Auckland Airport in order to avoid excessive rate hikes ( ie over 20%)  as it struggles to juggle budget priorities.

IFT 'well positioned.'

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2305/S00181/strong-continued-recovery-for-wellington-airport.htm

Pure speculation of course.

Quote from: Left Field on May 11, 2023, 06:09 PMInteresting to hear strong hints from Auckland city Finance Committee Chair Morris Williamson in a NZ radio interview today that Auckland city may sell its stake in Auckland Airport in order to avoid excessive rate hikes ( ie over 20%)  as it struggles to juggle budget priorities.

IFT 'well positioned.'

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2305/S00181/strong-continued-recovery-for-wellington-airport.htm

Pure speculation of course.

Interesting idea ... however - long term have airports not been IFT's best earners and some of them lost IFT a lot of money, i.e. shareholders might see this idea with some concern.

From memory, Infratil's foray into airports was in "second-tier" European/UK airports - more or less the equivalent of Wellington in the New Zealand context.

I think that that's quite a different proposition to the position of Auckland in the New Zealand aviation space.

Quote from: Henry Filth on May 12, 2023, 01:46 PMFrom memory, Infratil's foray into airports was in "second-tier" European/UK airports - more or less the equivalent of Wellington in the New Zealand context.

I think that that's quite a different proposition to the position of Auckland in the New Zealand aviation space.

Maybe, though I still would see in the current climate (punt intended) not a lot of growth chances for overpriced airports ... but hey, given I don't hold either (neither AKL nor IFT), do I have very little heart blood in this discussion ...

I posted the Auckland airport possibility merely as an interesting option.

However I agree the subsequent posts. I suspect IFT has much better options in renewable energy and data centres. Another IFT airport would seem a low priority unless IFT see some economies of scale in conjunction with Wellington.

IFT 5 year chart v NZX50 a chart of great beauty IMO

(Try comparing HLG to NZX50.......just saying.... and yes I appreciate HLG a dividend play.)

A thing of beauty indeed and I am pretty confident it will continue. Great company!

 Fund Manager Favourite
Infratil Limited
ASX: IFT | Utilities
Jai Mirchandani, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Environmental, Sustainability and Governance-focused ELM Responsible Investments appeared on The Insider: Meet the Fund Manager in March 2023. He chose Infratil Ltd (ASX: IFT) as one of his three favourite stocks citing the company's complexity, strong management and knack for efficient capital management.

I know I know - he's a fund manager for an ESG focused fund - probably wears a cardy as they are pretty trendy right now

IFT SP reached all time highs last week.

Will Monday's results see it climb further?

I would expect results to be pretty consistent with most recent guidance (EBITDAF $520 - $535M). I'm confident any surprise would be on the upside.

Disclosure, my biggest holding and plan to keep forever!

Quote from: Swala on May 20, 2023, 05:12 PMI would expect results to be pretty consistent with most recent guidance (EBITDAF $520 - $535M). I'm confident any surprise would be on the upside.

Disclosure, my biggest holding and plan to keep forever!

Good to see you well positioned Swala.

IFT SP growth consistently outperforming NZX50 makes it a great cornerstone in any well balanced NZ portfolio.

I agree re your FY23 expectations, however the key to further short term SP growth will be IFT's statements re FY24 expectations.....and hopefully these statements satisfy the CEO who not so long ago purchased over 1.3mill shares on market at av SP of around $9.05.

Onwards and upwards. Roll on Monday.

I'm happy....result right in Swala's mid point.... plus increased divvy and good prospects for growth in FY24

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411757

Looking ahead, the FY2024 Proportionate EBITDAF guidance range has been set at $570 million to $610 million, up 11.0% at the midpoint FY2023 result strong result – reflecting the momentum that has been building across the portfolio.

"In terms of our returns to shareholders, we will pay a fully imputed final dividend of 12.50 cents per share, to go with the 6.75 cents per share interim dividend, a 4% increase from the prior year. Infratil's share price also rose from $8.25 to $9.20 during the year, with an after-tax return to shareholders over the six months of 14.2%, and a return over the last ten years of 19.4% per annum," Mr Boyes said. "Infratil's portfolio continues to deliver outstanding returns to shareholders, and the investments we have made this year should support future returns in line with our stated target return of 11 to 15 % per annum to shareholders over a 10 year period."

Very pleasing.

Can anyone explain the big drop in SP given a pretty decent result?  Perhaps Morrison taking a big tranche of their fee in shares, but this should already be factored in?

Quote from: teabag on May 22, 2023, 03:36 PMCan anyone explain the big drop in SP given a pretty decent result?  Perhaps Morrison taking a big tranche of their fee in shares, but this should already be factored in?

How about....Market had got ahead of itself...... plus some short term profit taking.

No worries long term.

Quote from: teabag on May 22, 2023, 03:36 PMCan anyone explain the big drop in SP given a pretty decent result?  Perhaps Morrison taking a big tranche of their fee in shares, but this should already be factored in?

Look, I assume you realize that IFT is actually rather dear if you look at its earnings and its historical earnings growth. PE is above 20 ... and growth - well, apart from some historic speculation gains (buying and selling assets at the right time) growth is mainly in the head of the investor.

Sure, everybody assumes that regenerative energies and data storage are growth industries - and they likely are. However - everybody knows that, i.e. all this amazing hope for growth is already priced in by the market, this is the reason the share is currently that dear if you look at their earnings.

So - what you just see are some hype ripples. Hype is not predictable ... but there is a saying about companies whose SP does not grow anymore with good announcements. They say, if that's the case, all good news are already priced in. Maybe a time to review ones position?

Anyway - SP still well in an uptrend, so (probably) - no worries.

Closed at $10 on good volume!

IFT in trading halt while it raises capital to take their stake in One NZ (Vodafone) to 99%

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412638

Key highlights

• The Acquisition values One NZ at an enterprise value of NZ$5.9 billion[1] and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.8x [2] for Infratil's increased stake and a normalised EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.3x [3]
• Increased conviction around data and connectivity tailwinds and strong trading momentum, with further upside expected through its simplification initiatives, supports further investment in One NZ
• Full control provides business plan flexibility and a focus on long term value creation under 100% New Zealand ownership
• One NZ continues to deliver strong, stable cash flows and is well positioned to achieve a target 30% EBITDA margin in the near term
• Strengthens Infratil's cash generative core, providing stable and growing cashflows to support further Infratil's development platforms
• FY2024 Proportionate EBITDAF guidance range increased to NZ$800 million – NZ$840 million, reflecting an increased contribution from One NZ
• Underwritten [4] NZ$750 million Placement ('Placement') priced at NZ$9.20 per New Share ('Placement Price'), representing a 8.9% discount to last close and a 7.9% discount to 5-day VWAP of NZ$9.99
• Retail offer of NZ$100 million (plus the ability to accept oversubscriptions) enabling retail shareholders to participate in the equity raising on a pro rata basis
• Post equity raise and completion of the One NZ transaction, Infratil's wholly owned group gearing is expected to be 18.7% [5] with NZ$927.7 million of available liquidity [6][7], , providing flexibility to support growth investment across Infratil's portfolio
• The acquisition is unconditional
• Completion of the One NZ investment is expected shortly after receipt of the Placement proceeds

Its a Biggy ....

"30% EBITDA margin "

while HLG has been the big one in focus here this is a whale by comparison...

Infratil has a mix of investments across the energy, transport, communications and healthcare sectors.

In May, it reported a 28% fall in annual profit after making less from asset sales.

Profit dropped to $891.7 million in the year to the end of March, from $1.23 billion the previous year. Revenue fell 7.6% to $1.9b.

Based on the shares being offered at $9.20, the total number of shares after the wholesale and retail offers are taking up will increase by 12.4%

Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 07, 2023, 12:27 PMIts a Biggy ....

(The former Vodaphone NZ, now 'One') "30% EBITDA margin "

EBITDA Margin at Spark over financial year 2022 vas $1,150m/$3,720m = 30.9%

EBITDA Margin for Telstra over financial year 2022 vas $7,256m/$21,277m = 34.1%

Interesting.

RB

Quote from: Red Baron on Jun 08, 2023, 09:35 AMEBITDA Margin at Spark over financial year 2022 vas $1,150m/$3,720m = 30.9%

EBITDA Margin for Telstra over financial year 2022 vas $7,256m/$21,277m = 34.1%

Interesting.

RB

Why would EBITDA be of any interest?

The only thing which matters are Earnings After Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization, since these are the only Earnings which stay in your pocket.

Interesting indeed Snoopy.  All 3 are within a relatively tight band.

Analysts use EBITDA to assess FCF and its potential.  I take issue with this given DA comes from capex which was a cash outflow at some point, which may be required again in future.

Other analysts prefer EBIT to measure core profitability independent of funding structures and tax regimes.  Under new owners the funding structure of a business often changes.  Tax rates vary in differing countries which allows cross-border valuation comparisons.

NPAT is a blunt tool for valuation and/or profitability comparisons given differing funding structures and tax jurisdictions.

Quote from: Ferg on Jun 11, 2023, 07:43 PMInteresting indeed Snoopy.  All 3 are within a relatively tight band.

You should not convuse us.  Zome zay the only reason the Red Baron exeests today is vrom the vivid imagination of that mangey flea ridden mutt that should not be mentioned (which nevertheless you did).   However, I think you will vind I am very different vrom heem.

Vor I start, I stand for traditional German virtues:   Hard vork, straightforwardness and good beer. Try lapping that up out of a zupper dish and see how var you get!  In vact there is only one I stand against more than that Sopwith Camel steering, baron slandering, flea circus in fur (even if I do make an exception vor Christmas day).  And that is the one that has brought more shame on the proud German nation than any other.  That ridiculous renegrade third reich fantasist, the  recycled Austrian restaurateur, 'Adolf Eatler'.  Complete vith his clown mimicking Charlie Chaplin moustache!   I am glad that clown has gone down.

RB

Quote from: Red Baron on Jun 08, 2023, 09:35 AMEBITDA Margin at Spark over financial year 2022 vas $1,150m/$3,720m = 30.9%

EBITDA Margin for Telstra over financial year 2022 vas $7,256m/$21,277m = 34.1%

Interesting.

RB

I'm off to the Eden Park drinks and presso tommoz

Maybe they'll tell us why IFT didn't buy 100% of Voda NZ at the start  🤔

Huge end of day trade on Friday, over 2.8m shares at $9.625  Anyone know who's selling?

Quote from: teabag on Jun 18, 2023, 01:53 PMHuge end of day trade on Friday, over 2.8m shares at $9.625  Anyone know who's selling?

Wasn't Friday one of these rebalance days? In that case it's typically funds selling to each other. No worries, it's all controlled by algorithms ... no human intervention required.

True, it was rebalancing day on Friday, I am curious as to what instos were selling?  Half the SP drop has been clawed back already.

Quote from: teabag on Jun 19, 2023, 12:26 PMTrue, it was rebalancing day on Friday, I am curious as to what instos were selling?  Half the SP drop has been clawed back already.

Why would you be curious? It is not as if fund managers of index funds would have any choice on rebalance day ... they sell if they have too much (as determined by the percentage in the index) and they buy if they have not enough. No braincells get damaged in this process.

IFT looking to crack $10

SP showing little weakness after the recent cap raise.  Recent 'investor days' up and down the country well received.

This interview by Craigs reveals the confidence of the CEO who has been building v big personal stake. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sQQkqkl2yI

Successful cap raise..... with an additional $85 mill raised.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413977

The Retail Offer received strong support from eligible shareholders, with Infratil receiving valid applications totalling NZ$320 million [1][2][3]. Applications were received from 27,983 eligible shareholders with an average application of approximately NZ$11,447, representing a higher participation level than Infratil's 2020 share purchase plan (10,829 shareholders).

In recognition of the strong support from retail shareholders and the desire to, as far as is practicable, allow shareholders to maintain their proportionate ownership following the equity raising, Infratil has elected to increase the size of the Retail Offer. Infratil is accepting an additional NZ$85 million[1][2] of subscriptions, bringing the total amount raised under the Retail Offer to NZ$185 million[1][2].

A total of approximately 20,095,000 new fully paid Infratil ordinary shares will be issued under the Retail Offer at the issue price of NZ$9.20 per share (or A$8.47044 per share for ASX Retail Offer applicants[2]), being the price at which shares were issued in the placement announced on Wednesday, 7 June 2023.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 29, 2023, 10:12 PMIFT looking to crack $10

Ended above $10 today and reached an all time high in the process. Naaice.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 30, 2023, 05:33 PMEnded above $10 today and reached an all time high in the process. Naaice.

Got an email this afternoon from IFT - June 2023 Update - doesn't seem to have been released to NZX



In the last month we have also completed the largest equity raise in our history, raising $935 million, with the capital raise strongly supported by investors. The additional capital was deployed towards our acquisition of the additional stake in One NZ and will also provide flexibility to support our attractive pipeline of investment opportunities. Allotment of the new shares under the Retail Offer is expected to occur on the NZX and ASX on Tuesday, 4 July.

Across our portfolio

UK based Kao Data has announced plans for a new 40MW data centre in Manchester. Following the acquisition of two new data centres last year, the move represents the next phase in the continued expansion of the Kao Data platform, with Manchester named as the first of its new Tier II locations in Europe.

The new data centre, which is planned to become operational in late 2025, will provide space for nine data halls, creating a leading infrastructure hub to support Greater Manchester's growing technology ecosystem and the UK's largest high-performance computing and artificial intelligence sectors outside of London and the Oxford-Cambridge arc.

RetireAustralia accomplished an important milestone last week with Stage 2 of The Verge, a premium retirement living village overlooking Burleigh Golf Course on the Gold Coast, reaching practical completion. This marks the start of a busy period in the village as the team prepares to welcome new residents to their community over the next three weeks.

Wellington Airport has welcomed the news that the Wellington to Brisbane Qantas service will return in October. The daily service will begin operating year-round on 29 October, restoring a service that was last operated seasonally in 2015. The new service follows Fiji Airways increasing its Wellington-Nadi flights to three or four per week, and Jetstar increasing its service to the Gold Coast to four times per week during peak months.

International passenger numbers at Wellington Airport are now back to around 76% of pre-Covid numbers.

Longroad Energy announced the sale of its 108MW Foxhound Solar project in April. Foxhound, located in Halifax County, Virginia, has reached full notice to proceed and has begun construction. The project has been in development for six years and will produce enough clean energy to power more than 17,000 homes. Financial close of the Foxhound acquisition is expected upon mechanical completion of the project which is anticipated for January 2024.

Closer to home, Manawa Energy has secured the rights to develop a circa 230MW wind generation project in the central North Island, between Taihape and Waiouru. If it proceeds, the wind development is expected to generate enough power for 100,000 average New Zealand homes. Design work on what the wind farm might look like has not been completed, but the site had previously been consented for around 50 wind turbines across 47 square kilometres of privately owned rural land.

Finally, we have just completed our 2023 Retail Investor Roadshow across 15 towns and cities. Over the last three weeks we have presented to almost 2,000 investors. Thank you to all investors who were able to attend one of these presentations.

For additional updates, you can also follow Infratil on LinkedIn.


Infratil Email Updates are sent to interested shareholders, analysts, brokers and other parties who have registered their interest on infratil.com. Unsubscribe from this mailing list.

S/Holders happy with IFT's cap raise, at today's close they had unrealised gains of over a $1.00 for each share allocated.

Much better than some other recent cap raises.....

Impressed by IFT's growing telecommunications/IT  presence via One NZ and data centres and now this....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414461

Infratil Limited ('Infratil') (NZX/ASX: IFT) is pleased to announce that it has executed a conditional agreement with HKT Trust and HKT Limited ('HKT') (SEHK:6823), a leading telecommunications company in Hong Kong, to establish a strategic partnership to accelerate the growth of its Console Connect business ('Console Connect').

Console Connect is a top-3 global software-defined interconnection platform offering next-generation automated connectivity solutions. The Console Connect platform makes connecting to data centres, partners, clouds, and other applications simple and secure, with fully automated switching and routing.

Console Connect owns its global IP network which has been developed over many years and has been a top 10 Tier 1 network globally for the last 5 years, serving ~17% of all internet traffic and reaching over 150 countries. Integration with an owned Tier 1 IP network, as well as long-term integrated access to a global backbone network, provides a clear point of differentiation for Console Connect given its extensive network coverage and superior unit economics.

Infratil will initially acquire an 80% stake in Console Connect from HKT for US$160 million. Infratil will also enter into a strategic partnership with HKT, with both jointly investing up to US$295 million over a 2-year period following completion of the acquisition to accelerate Console Connect's growth

Historic issue with Vodafone and 'misleading conduct' earns a hefty fine, I hope IFT's purchase agreement allowed for this possibility!

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/one-nz-slapped-record-fine-'misleading-conduct'

Not a good look.

ASM presentation for todays meeting.....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/416546/400584.pdf

"FY2024 Proportionate EBITDAF guidance range remains unchanged at $800 million – $840 million
First quarter trading performance from key portfolio companies provides confidence that FY2024 earnings are tracking towards the top half of the range."

So.... FY 24 forecast EBITDAF = (say) $820 mill v LY $531 mill.......Crikey that's an increase of over 50%!

Seems IFT poised for growth.

At yesterdays ASM one of the key risks identified by the CEO was the risk of access to sufficient capital to allow IFT to take advantage of opportunities and growth potential that it sees ahead.  (17% gearing currently with over 1.1 Billion in Bank debt available to it.)

In the light of this it is interesting to see todays announcement of a 20 million share buyback.

"Infratil announces its intention to buy back ordinary shares pursuant to
Rules 4.14.1(a) and 4.14.1(b)(ii) on the basis outlined in the Notice of
Meeting for the 2023 Annual Meeting ("Notice of Meeting").

The buybacks may take place during the period from 18 August 2023 and 19 July
2024. Shares may be bought on-market or off-market, but the combined total
of on-market and off-market purchases will not exceed 20,000,000 ordinary
shares. On-market buybacks will only take place on the NZX Main Board, not
the ASX."

Offering Details
Maturity Date: Saturday, 15 March 2031
Minimum Investment: NZ$5,000 and multiples of NZ$1,000 thereafter
Statement Request Code: IFT340

Details
Infratil Limited (IFT) has opened an offer of 7½ year unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate infrastructure bonds (IFT340).  IFT is a holding company therefore bondholders have no claim or recourse to the assets of IFT subsidiaries or associates. In the event of the liquidation of IFT, bank indebtedness, secured creditors and creditors preferred by law, rank ahead of IFT bondholders.

IFT is an NZX listed holding company specialising in long-lived, growth infrastructure assets. IFT's Portfolio is invested 65% into Digital Infrastructure, 17% Renewables, 11% Healthcare, and 6% Airports. Infratil will use the net proceeds of the Offer for general corporate purposes, including to repay a portion of Infratil's existing bank debt bridge facility put in place to fund the acquisition of One New Zealand.
Here I am buying Genesis shares as a long term dividend (trap) income stream.
But this offer look appealing.
I have never considered bonds before.
 

All New Zealand resident clients of Jarden Direct can participate in the Offer.
 
- Final bids for the Offer are due: 9:30am Friday, 1st September 2023
- Minimum interest rate: 7.05% pa
- Indicative issue margin: 2.40% to 2.55% pa*
- Indicative issue yield: 7.24% to 7.39% pa*
- Issue/Settlement date: Friday, 15 September 2023
- No brokerage will be charged on the offer

This might spark up some interest for Infratil shareholders
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/longroad/

Quote from: Basil on Sep 28, 2023, 12:14 PMThis might spark up some interest for Infratil shareholders
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/longroad/

Cheers Basil. I have a modest holding from way back and over the years the returns have been stellar. Not for the dividend hounds but IFT are one of the best - if not the best - defensive stocks on the NZX.

Andrew Carroll, eh.  A safe pair of hands or is there a concern he was effectively restructured out of Chorus?

Quote from: Hectorplains on Oct 06, 2023, 11:43 AMAndrew Carroll, eh.  A safe pair of hands or is there a concern he was effectively restructured out of Chorus?

Andrew Carroll navigated Chorus through a challenging period on uncertain regulatory as CFO. It was likely a challenging role and perhaps (speculation) he decided to step down from CFO back in 2018 into a GM role? I should also note he stepped up again as acting CFO of Chorus in 2022 when the then CFO resigned from Chorus.

I reckon Phillippa Harford did a great job at Infratil as CFO and wish her all the best in her future endeavours. 

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/420951

Infratil advises that U.S. based renewable energy developer, owner and
operator, Longroad Energy, has achieved financial close and commencement of
construction of Sun Streams 4, its 377 MWdc PV and 300 MWac / 1200 MWh
storage project. Sun Streams 4 is Longroad's largest solar and storage
project to date and is the company's third project in its Sun Streams complex
based in Maricopa County, Arizona. Commercial operations for Sun Streams 4
are currently expected by mid-2025.

Sun Stream 4's total output, enough to power 120,000 homes, will be purchased
by Arizona Public Service ('APS') via a long-term Power Purchase Agreement
('PPA'). The project will help support system reliability in Arizona,
particularly during the peak demand summer months.

Wellington City Council has apparently  voted today to put the sale of its 30% holding of Wellington Airport into its long term plans for further consideration and consultation.

Many see this as an opportunity for IFT to purchase WCC's share of the airport.

I also see it as a good opportunity for IFT to reduce or sell out its interest in Wellington airport.

IMO Wellington airport is now a bit of an orphan in IFT's portfolio and there may be much better returns to be had elsewhere in IFT's portfolio of data centres, communications and renewable energy which all are capital hungry.

Interesting times ahead for holders.

 AFR's Street talk tonight :

Morrison & Co-backed data centre owner CDC Data Centres is busy restocking its balance sheet with a new debt package.

Street Talk understands CDC is working with Barrenjoey Capital Partners to supersize its bank debt facilities by circa $800 million. Sources said debt presentations are under way, with the Commonwealth Bank expected to lead the syndicate.


CDC's last loan was for $2.7 billion in November 2022, similarly arranged by Barrenjoey. Fifteen lenders came on at the same time the company raised $308 million in 10-year and 15-year private placements. In May, CDC raised another $230 million in 10-year ninja loans from Japanese lenders.

The company has enjoyed a rapid growth trajectory since its founding in 2007. New Zealand-listed renewable energy infrastructure investor Infratil issued a fresh valuation of its investment in CDC in October, showing a $448 million increase over the six months since its March 31 assessment. The Kiwi giant now puts its 47.99 per cent stake in CDC between $3.64 billion and $4.19 billion – or a midpoint of $3.88 billion – implying $8.09 billion for 100 per cent of the business.

Full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and fair value adjustments guidance of $260 million to $270 million imply an EBITDA multiple north of 30-times.

The valuation boost was closely watched by much larger rival AirTrunk, which is mulling an initial public offering or trade sale. AirTrunk's contracted EBITDA is understood to be upwards of $600 million. Applying a 30-times multiple implies an enterprise value of $18 billion. Strip out $5 billion-odd of debt and that's an IPO closer to $13 billion rather than the $10 billion figure being bandied around.

Top talent
CDC builds, owns and operates data centres across Australia and New Zealand. The company has a strong grip on the federal government's data centre spending with six centres at Hume and Fyshwick in Canberra, as well as three large ones at Eastern Creek in western Sydney.

It's jointly owned by Infratil Ltd and public servants' superannuation fund Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation. Infrastructure manager Morrison & Co manages the investment on behalf of both shareholders.

CDC's meteoric rise has been overseen by a well-regarded leadership team, which includes chief executive Greg Boorer and former APN News & Media boss Brett Chenoweth as chairman.

Since leaving APN in 2013, Chenoweth has quietly accumulated a David Gonski-esque portfolio, chairing a wide range of companies including ASX-listed bedding and furniture group Adairs and film distribution and production group Madman Entertainment. He's also a non-executive director at wagering giant Tabcorp; One NZ, formerly Vodafone New Zealand; Surfing Australia; Thredbo owner ASX-listed EVT; and most recently RetireAustralia, among others.

Huge crossing of 200,000 shares at ATH of $10.60 on closing today.....

Someone optimistic about results tomorrow.

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 15, 2023, 05:27 PMHuge crossing of 200,000 shares at ATH of $10.60 on closing today.....

Someone optimistic about results tomorrow.

As many pessimists as optimists ... I guess somebody must have sold the shares, didn't they?

Great result..... plus upgrade. Naaiiice.

Infratil today announced a net parent surplus from continuing operations of $1,215.1 million for the six months to 30 September 2023. The result included a $1,064.5 million revaluation of Infratil's initial 49.95% stake in One NZ, following the acquisition of a further 49.95% stake in June this year.

Proportionate EBITDAF was $400.0 million – a 45% increase on the $275.6 million from the same period the previous year.........

......"The operating performance across our portfolio gives us the confidence to lift and narrow our FY2024 Proportionate EBITDAF guidance from $800 - $840 million, to $820 - $850 million. .

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421750

Comments around prospects for renewable energy and data centres look v promising.

Mr Boyes highlighted that Infratil retains significant liquidity to support further internal and external investment opportunities with $1.0 billion of available capacity to fund growth, including significant undrawn corporate facilities. At 30 September, gearing was 19.7%, up from 9.8% at 31 March.

"As we head into a period which is likely to be dominated by a continuation of the macro-economic uncertainty that we are currently experiencing, we are excited about the level of opportunity for continued investment across our existing portfolio. These opportunities are likely to continue to exceed our available capital, allowing us to continue to prioritise the highest value opportunities for shareholders.

"In terms of our returns to shareholders, we will pay a partially imputed interim dividend of 7.00 cents per share, a 3.7% increase from the prior year. Over the first half of FY2024, Infratil has delivered a total shareholder return of 14.1%, while the NZX50 was down 6.6% over the period. For the 12 months to 30 September 2023, Infratil's total shareholder return was 22.3%.

Very pleasing result. Onwards and upwards!

Strange that IFT have nosedived - at last count 43c - on the back of a strong result. Hard to figure, especially as it opened strongly. Why would anyone bail now? Tempted to buy more.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 16, 2023, 03:35 PMStrange that IFT have nosedived - at last count 43c - on the back of a strong result. Hard to figure, especially as it opened strongly. Why would anyone bail now? Tempted to buy more.

About 12 months ago IFT was around $8.50. Likely some profit taking place today and the purchaser of 200,000 shares yesterday at $10.60 may be feeling about $80,000 less optimistic today!

As BP points out above....for every buyer, there is a seller.

In addition, as approx 50% (or $1,064 mill) of the 'surplus' came from revaluations..... maybe the market is a bit sceptical. (How much would you value a One NZ at?)


Longer term...... no worries.

IFT starting the year well......naaaiiice.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/424251/410410.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 03, 2024, 01:02 PMIFT starting the year well......naaaiiice.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/424251/410410.pdf

Absolutely. CDC continues to be a great value creating investment with sustainable tail winds. The exponential growth in data storage just warming up - will require lots of Infratil renewable energy to power it!

More good news

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424962

SP settling in above $10 now........ onwards and upwards.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 18, 2024, 11:33 AMMore good news

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424962

SP settling in above $10 now........ onwards and upwards.

Yep, $11 by year end :P

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 18, 2024, 03:05 PMYep, $11 by year end :P

Naaiice crossing today....360k shares @ $10.46

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 25, 2024, 04:44 PMNaaiice crossing today....360k shares @ $10.46

Closed at $10.60. Might have to revise my year-end estimate!

IFT has been the best performer of my holdings by a long chalk. I began accumulating only 5 years ago but the price then was a modest $3.75 - a trebling in value over those 5 years! Its growth has been relentless and I see no reason why it won't continue. All things being equal, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the SP wasn't $20 in another 5 years.

And $10.60 closing on a reasonable volume of 81,000 shares.

Well done Lizard..... high conviction hold for me too....now  at 20% of my portfolio.

Some strong conviction from IFT Directors/Management.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425299 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425299)

Jeez, I really am going to have to revise my year end SP estimate!

Let's say $12 shall we?

All time high today..... so why stop at $12!?

(However...... you don't say when.  ;) )

Yep, all bets are off as to where the SP will be in a month let alone a year. UP is all one can say. Any ideas as to what's driving this surge?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 29, 2024, 01:52 PMYep, all bets are off as to where the SP will be in a month let alone a year. UP is all one can say. Any ideas as to what's driving this surge?

Been testing the $11 mark today..... well done that person!

IFT doing what they do.... and doing it well.

Continuity and promotion/endorsement from within..... all good for Manawa Energy new CEO.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/425834/412168.pdf

Investor update material available here https://www.nzx.com/announcements/427438

Info' from the individual sectors such as Digital, Energy, Data Centres etc all very impressive.

IFT looks set to continue to outperform so with all the posting attention on HGH recently I thought it interesting to compare SP appreciation over the last 5 yrs.

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 05, 2024, 11:41 AMInvestor update material available here https://www.nzx.com/announcements/427438

Info' from the individual sectors such as Digital, Energy, Data Centres etc all very impressive.

IFT looks set to continue to outperform and with all the posting attention on HGH recently I thought it interesting to compare SP appreciation over the last 5 yrs.

He-he. Basil would splutter into his cornflakes if he saw this ;D

I'm a big fan of infratil - it is my biggest holding. Look at their track record of returns to shareholders in slide 11 of the investor presentation. Impressive stuff and there's no reason to doubt their target portfolio return of 11-15% per annum over the next 10 years. Given their history that might turn out to be a bit conservative.

Nice to see IFT heading north again after the recent investors briefing.

In recent times IFT has diversified into key areas such as renewable energy and Spark/One NZ while the strategic importance of IFT's Digital infrastructure (cloud storage/cables and related business's) is underlined by this interesting  article. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-06/the-cloud-under-the-sea/103137378

Here's IFT's investor presentation on this particular sector. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/427438/414256.pdf

And of course  IFT's Digital infrastructure is well positioned for the growth of AI.

Roll on $11.00

Good point about AI - we are at the cusp of an explosion in the requirement and usage of AI. AI is very data hungry - it's how it "learns" - so data volume and storage needs will increase exponentially in the coming years. IFT have always been very good at anticipating trends - renewable energy, mobile technology, digital services - and I have no doubt that their considerable investment in cutting edge data centres is going to be extremely lucrative going forward ;D

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Mar 07, 2024, 12:10 PMGood point about AI - we are at the cusp of an explosion in the requirement and usage of AI. AI is very data hungry - it's how it "learns" - so data volume and storage needs will increase exponentially in the coming years. IFT have always been very good at anticipating trends - renewable energy, mobile technology, digital services - and I have no doubt that their considerable investment in cutting edge data centres is going to be extremely lucrative going forward ;D

The USA AI up start NVDA  went from $US 30 per share to around $US 800 over the last 5 years.

We just need the IFT SP to get a smidgen of those gains.  ;D .

Longroad Energy well positioned in the USA.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/427438/414253.pdf

IFT owns majority of Manawa..... making good progress..... nice upgrade

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428413

Independent power producer and renewable energy developer Manawa Energy ('Manawa') advises that the company's EBITDAF for the year to 31 March 2024 is likely to be in the range of $142m to $147m, above the previous guidance range of $120m to $140m. Capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $65m to $80m.

The revision is driven by several factors, including an increased focus on operating efficiencies and value capture, favourable energy trading conditions in Q3 and Q4, and relatively strong irrigation demand. It is contingent on there being no material events for the remainder of the financial year.

Manawa has also continued to progress and expand its pipeline of renewable development options, with the following milestones achieved in recent months:

• secured resource consent from the Marlborough District Council for the previously announced Argyle Solar Farm (~28MWac), adjacent to its Branch River hydro power scheme in Marlborough. Manawa is currently preparing a resource consent application for an expansion of the Argyle Solar Farm up to ~65MWac that is expected to be lodged in early FY25; and

• secured land options for a potential 100MW wind farm opportunity in Marlborough, along with a ~200MWac solar opportunity in the Mackenzie Basin, taking Manawa's secured pipeline of wind and solar options to more than 1.2GW.

Excellent post of the other channel, summing up IFT's growth path nicely.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Mar 22, 2024, 01:35 PMExcellent post of the other channel, summing up IFT's growth path nicely.

Sums up the potential well when he say's.....

"IMHO IFT remains the best placed risk adjusted public investment on NZX by a long shot. So many tail winds are in evidence, but particularly the AI growth into datacentre deployment, into data infrastructure growth and finally into green renewable energy demand. IFT sits across so many strong thematics / tail winds / growth areas. Beautifully positioned / poised!"

Quote from: Basil on Mar 26, 2024, 05:47 PMBy the way, off topic, you've just made an outstanding point about Infratil.  I just looked up the long-term chart on Yahoo finance, (Jarden only goes back 10 years) and it wasn't until 2018, 11 years later that IFT made a meaningful break about its 2007 peak.  That's more than 11 years of going nowhere while Morrison and Co milk shareholders for their ongoing egregiously high fees.  Maybe we're due for another decade plus long period of woeful performance after the last 5 years of outperformance?  My Marlin units NAV is up 26% since 1 November 2023 and yet IFT have barely participated in the international markets strong rally since then.  Hmmm....no wonder some are trying to talk it up.

I'm not sure Basil's figs are correct. The comparison of IFT to BRM's NAV since Nov 23 is also rather misleading/meaningless unless you compare it to IFT's current NAV...... and  anyways I hope the following chart comparing IFT to NZX50 returns  is more helpful.

As I said in the other thread...(I don't know how to post it from Yahoo finance into here), but go into Yahoo Finance and bring up a 20 year chart of Infratil and see for yourself.

From the peak in 2007 it was a long and very lonely hold for 11 years to 2018 before any real progress was made again.  Periods of strong outperformance such as that leading up to the peak in 2007, have been followed by long periods of underperformance.  Whether this happens again is frankly anyone's guess.

No question IFT's share price has done well in the last 5 years, but past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  BTW, I don't trust Morrison and Co's data center values upon which their egregiously high fees are based.  None of the analysts seem too either.  More than one way to skin a cat with the A.I. revolution.  Marlin seem to be doing very well with some of their shares that are enjoying A.I. tailwinds.  I'm up ~19% since early December since buying in very good volume with them.  Whether that continues at that sort of pace is anyone's guess but they are better diversified than IFT is with their assets, that's an undeniable fact and they're a PIE with quarterly tax free 2% dividends which is highly attractive for people wanting tax free income.

Horses for courses and each to their own.  Not saying MLN is better than IFT, just there's more than one way to skin a cat.

IFT management made some bizarre investments back in the day. 3rd rate European airports, Bus Companies, Oil and Gas. Ports etc
I lost the shirt off my back in 2008 with the warrants.
I was dark with this Company for years.
When they bought Voda I thought, here we go, risk on. History repeating itself.

However, Ift is now a totally different Company from the New Zealand  Wellington centric infrastructure Company back then.

Now it is a technical and energy company around the globe. Has smart partners and the ability to leverage low risk debt.

After 15 years of avoiding the Company, I got over myself and bought 50,000 shares
around 12 months ago.

Why, because along with Mft and Fph, Ift management show what true vision and world class execution looks like.

Comparing them to funds run by investment fund managers buying and selling stocks in a portfolio from Monday to Friday, undermines the world class value add, job creation and flying the Kiwi flag on the International stage.


Disc, hold both Ift, and Brm warrants.

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 26, 2024, 07:37 PMI'm not sure Basil's figs are correct. The comparison of IFT to BRM's NAV since Nov 23 is also rather misleading/meaningless unless you compare it to IFT's current NAV...... and  anyways I hope the following chart comparing IFT to NZX50 returns  is more helpful.

Great table there LF. Says it all really.

$11 just around the corner surely?

Quote from: Basil on Mar 26, 2024, 07:53 PMAs I said in the other thread...(I don't know how to post it from Yahoo finance into here), but go into Yahoo Finance and bring up a 20 year chart of Infratil and see for yourself.

From the peak in 2007 it was a long and very lonely hold for 11 years to 2018 before any real progress was made again.  Periods of strong outperformance such as that leading up to the peak in 2007, have been followed by long periods of underperformance.  Whether this happens again is frankly anyone's guess.

No question IFT's share price has done well in the last 5 years, but past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  BTW, I don't trust Morrison and Co's data center values upon which their egregiously high fees are based.  None of the analysts seem too either.  More than one way to skin a cat with the A.I. revolution.  Marlin seem to be doing very well with some of their shares that are enjoying A.I. tailwinds.  I'm up ~19% since early December since buying in very good volume with them.  Whether that continues at that sort of pace is anyone's guess but they are better diversified than IFT is with their assets, that's an undeniable fact and they're a PIE with quarterly tax free 2% dividends which is highly attractive for people wanting tax free income.

Horses for courses and each to their own.  Not saying MLN is better than IFT, just there's more than one way to skin a cat.

" From the peak in 2007 it was a long and very lonely hold for 11 years to 2018 before any real progress was made again."

Well for context it did VERT well in the lead up to 2007, then halved in GFC, and then provided good returns again following the GFC, and of course since then has gone on an absolute tear.

See image for context.

Just as well stocks that go on a tear never correct eh  ;)

Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2024, 12:05 PMJust as well stocks that go on a tear never correct eh  ;)

Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2024, 12:05 PMJust as well stocks that go on a tear never correct eh  ;)

Yeah, you've got to watch out for those 10 year blips...

Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2024, 12:05 PMJust as well stocks that go on a tear never correct eh  ;)

You don't think the underlying cashflow generation supports the current valuation?

There's a high level of analyst coverage on it and the average of 6 analysts has a forward price target of $11.13, just a fraction north of here. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/INFRATIL-LIMITED-6494631/finances/

Each to their own.  I am happy with leaving my international investments in the hands of the top performing team at Barramundi and Marlin for amongst other reasons, those explained in my post yesterday in the Fisher funds thread.

Infratil Newsletter
28 March 2024

Our diverse portfolio of businesses, ranging from digital to renewables, healthcare, and airports, have all had a busy start to the year, making significant strides in the first three months of 2024 against their respective plans.

At a portfolio level we were excited to host our annual Institutional Investor Day on 5 March. All the material from the Investor Day, including the presentations from the teams at Gurīn Energy, Wellington Airport, Longroad Energy, One NZ and CDC, as well as sector insights from our manager, Morrison, and Infratil board Chair, Alison Gerry are now available on our website.

Across our portfolio

Digital

After revealing plans for accelerated construction and development in October 2023 and January 2024, CDC has secured over 110MW of new customer contracts, fuelling its capacity expansion and paving the way for further development. These contracts, sourced from both new and existing clients across Australia and New Zealand, will drive expansion efforts throughout CDC's existing data centre footprint as well as the establishment of new facilities. Notably, CDC initiated construction on an additional 265MW of capacity in late 2023, demonstrating a proactive approach and an anticipation of sustained growth beyond immediate requirements.

Extended network coverage is one step closer for One NZ customers with the SpaceX 'cell tower in sky' satellite launch in early January. SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket lifted off successfully from Space Launch Complex in California on 2 January taking six SpaceX Direct to Cell Starlink satellites into space.

When the service goes live SpaceX Direct to Cell Starlink satellites will complement One NZ's award winning 4G and 5G mobile network providing extended coverage across New Zealand. No traditional mobile network covers more than 50% of New Zealand's geography which means 50% currently remains isolated, out of coverage and out of reach.

Renewables

Longroad Energy announced the financial close and start of construction of Serrano, a 220MW solar and 214MW/855MWh battery storage project in Arizona. The project has commenced construction and commercial operation for Serrano is currently expected by mid-2025.

The output of the Serrano project will be purchased by Arizona Public Service via a long-term Power Purchase Agreement. The project will generate enough electricity to power roughly 61,000 Arizona homes, and will support grid reliability, particularly during Arizona's hot summer months.

Manawa Energy has continued to progress and expand its pipeline of renewable development options in New Zealand. It has recently secured resource consent from the Marlborough District Council for the previously announced Argyle Solar Farm (28MW) adjacent to its Branch River hydro power scheme in Marlborough. Manawa is now preparing a resource consent application for an expansion of the Solar Farm of up to ~65MW that is expected to be lodged in the coming months.

Separately, Manawa has secured land options for a potential 100MW wind farm opportunity in Marlborough, along with a ~200MW solar opportunity in the Mackenzie Basin, taking Manawa's secured pipeline of wind and solar options to more than 1.2GW.

Galileo, our European renewable energy development platform, has announced the sale of its interest in Enviria, a German provider of commercial and industrial solar systems, to US asset manager Blackrock. Galileo and Enviria will continue to build out their partnership under the joint venture, Galileo Enviria Solar, focusing on the development of high-quality ground-mounted solar PV and storage projects in Germany. The JV has already generated a pipeline of over 1.4GW in various stages of development, with a plan to add approximately 1GW of projects per year to the pipeline.

Separately Galileo announced the sale of eight solar PV development projects to GreenIT, totalling approximately 140MW, across three regions in Southern, Central and Northern Italy.

Gurīn Energy, our pan-Asian renewable energy business, is continuing to progress Its joint venture Vanda RE to establish a green electricity trading corridor between Indonesia and Singapore. The ground-breaking infrastructure project plans to deliver 300MW of non-intermittent renewable energy to the Singapore market by combining 2GW of solar PV capacity with 4,428MWh of BESS.

Healthcare

RHCNZ Medical Imaging announced the opening of a new purpose-built radiology clinic in Whangārei. The clinic provides immediate, local access to leading-edge imaging technology for Te Tai Tokerau communities and is equipped with state-of-the-art PET-CT, MRI, CT, x-ray and ultrasound equipment. The clinic, the first of its kind in Northland, now offers patients across the region access to high-tech medical imaging expertise without having to travel to Auckland.

Reinforcing its commitment to patient care and providing access for patients in regional areas, Qscan has continued to expand services within existing clinics with the installation of a new CT machine in Maroochydore and the introduction of a new MRI machine in Mackay.

The final stage of RetireAustralia's, The Verge at Burleigh, on Australia's Gold Coast is nearing completion. The lead contractors have undertaken the task of demobilising and removing the crane from Stage 3, with the finishing touches to Building 3 underway before welcoming residents to their new homes. Stage 3 features 62 independent living apartments and RetireAustralia's first 10-suite Care Hub, an alternative to aged care in a homelike environment.

Airports

The first trial using hydrogen to unlock low emissions aviation in New Zealand is underway at Wellington Airport. Air New Zealand, Wellington Airport, Toyota New Zealand, and Hiringa Energy have joined forces to trial using hydrogen to charge Air New Zealand's electric tugs and service vehicles at Wellington Airport.

This is the first-time hydrogen has been used at an airport in New Zealand and is an important step on the long-term journey to decarbonise aviation. The trial will help us assess the viability of hydrogen for charging and provide a good insight into the operational challenges and opportunities.

Finally, the Kororā Blue Penguin who was rescued from the Wellington Airport runway last month has been successfully released back into the wild! The team at Wellington Zoo did an amazing job of nursing him back to health (the runway sensors were reading 50 degrees Celsius at the time of his rescue) until he was ready for release at a nesting spot on Wellington's south coast. He has been asked politely to stay away from the runway in future and the fencing has had some additional penguin-proofing!

 

Thanks again for your continued support of Infratil. We look forward to sharing further details at Infratil's annual Retail Investor Roadshow throughout June.

For additional updates, you can also follow Infratil on LinkedIn.

Quote from: Crackity on Apr 01, 2024, 09:12 PMInfratil Newsletter
28 March 2024

Our diverse portfolio of businesses, ranging from digital to renewables, healthcare, and airports, have all had a busy start to the year, making significant strides in the first three months of 2024 against their respective plans.

At a portfolio level we were excited to host our annual Institutional Investor Day on 5 March. All the material from the Investor Day, including the presentations from the teams at Gurīn Energy, Wellington Airport, Longroad Energy, One NZ and CDC, as well as sector insights from our manager, Morrison, and Infratil board Chair, Alison Gerry are now available on our website.

Across our portfolio

Digital

After revealing plans for accelerated construction and development in October 2023 and January 2024, CDC has secured over 110MW of new customer contracts, fuelling its capacity expansion and paving the way for further development. These contracts, sourced from both new and existing clients across Australia and New Zealand, will drive expansion efforts throughout CDC's existing data centre footprint as well as the establishment of new facilities. Notably, CDC initiated construction on an additional 265MW of capacity in late 2023, demonstrating a proactive approach and an anticipation of sustained growth beyond immediate requirements.

Extended network coverage is one step closer for One NZ customers with the SpaceX 'cell tower in sky' satellite launch in early January. SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket lifted off successfully from Space Launch Complex in California on 2 January taking six SpaceX Direct to Cell Starlink satellites into space.

When the service goes live SpaceX Direct to Cell Starlink satellites will complement One NZ's award winning 4G and 5G mobile network providing extended coverage across New Zealand. No traditional mobile network covers more than 50% of New Zealand's geography which means 50% currently remains isolated, out of coverage and out of reach.

Renewables

Longroad Energy announced the financial close and start of construction of Serrano, a 220MW solar and 214MW/855MWh battery storage project in Arizona. The project has commenced construction and commercial operation for Serrano is currently expected by mid-2025.

The output of the Serrano project will be purchased by Arizona Public Service via a long-term Power Purchase Agreement. The project will generate enough electricity to power roughly 61,000 Arizona homes, and will support grid reliability, particularly during Arizona's hot summer months.

Manawa Energy has continued to progress and expand its pipeline of renewable development options in New Zealand. It has recently secured resource consent from the Marlborough District Council for the previously announced Argyle Solar Farm (28MW) adjacent to its Branch River hydro power scheme in Marlborough. Manawa is now preparing a resource consent application for an expansion of the Solar Farm of up to ~65MW that is expected to be lodged in the coming months.

Separately, Manawa has secured land options for a potential 100MW wind farm opportunity in Marlborough, along with a ~200MW solar opportunity in the Mackenzie Basin, taking Manawa's secured pipeline of wind and solar options to more than 1.2GW.

Galileo, our European renewable energy development platform, has announced the sale of its interest in Enviria, a German provider of commercial and industrial solar systems, to US asset manager Blackrock. Galileo and Enviria will continue to build out their partnership under the joint venture, Galileo Enviria Solar, focusing on the development of high-quality ground-mounted solar PV and storage projects in Germany. The JV has already generated a pipeline of over 1.4GW in various stages of development, with a plan to add approximately 1GW of projects per year to the pipeline.

Separately Galileo announced the sale of eight solar PV development projects to GreenIT, totalling approximately 140MW, across three regions in Southern, Central and Northern Italy.

Gurīn Energy, our pan-Asian renewable energy business, is continuing to progress Its joint venture Vanda RE to establish a green electricity trading corridor between Indonesia and Singapore. The ground-breaking infrastructure project plans to deliver 300MW of non-intermittent renewable energy to the Singapore market by combining 2GW of solar PV capacity with 4,428MWh of BESS.

Healthcare

RHCNZ Medical Imaging announced the opening of a new purpose-built radiology clinic in Whangārei. The clinic provides immediate, local access to leading-edge imaging technology for Te Tai Tokerau communities and is equipped with state-of-the-art PET-CT, MRI, CT, x-ray and ultrasound equipment. The clinic, the first of its kind in Northland, now offers patients across the region access to high-tech medical imaging expertise without having to travel to Auckland.

Reinforcing its commitment to patient care and providing access for patients in regional areas, Qscan has continued to expand services within existing clinics with the installation of a new CT machine in Maroochydore and the introduction of a new MRI machine in Mackay.

The final stage of RetireAustralia's, The Verge at Burleigh, on Australia's Gold Coast is nearing completion. The lead contractors have undertaken the task of demobilising and removing the crane from Stage 3, with the finishing touches to Building 3 underway before welcoming residents to their new homes. Stage 3 features 62 independent living apartments and RetireAustralia's first 10-suite Care Hub, an alternative to aged care in a homelike environment.

Airports

The first trial using hydrogen to unlock low emissions aviation in New Zealand is underway at Wellington Airport. Air New Zealand, Wellington Airport, Toyota New Zealand, and Hiringa Energy have joined forces to trial using hydrogen to charge Air New Zealand's electric tugs and service vehicles at Wellington Airport.

This is the first-time hydrogen has been used at an airport in New Zealand and is an important step on the long-term journey to decarbonise aviation. The trial will help us assess the viability of hydrogen for charging and provide a good insight into the operational challenges and opportunities.

Finally, the Kororā Blue Penguin who was rescued from the Wellington Airport runway last month has been successfully released back into the wild! The team at Wellington Zoo did an amazing job of nursing him back to health (the runway sensors were reading 50 degrees Celsius at the time of his rescue) until he was ready for release at a nesting spot on Wellington's south coast. He has been asked politely to stay away from the runway in future and the fencing has had some additional penguin-proofing!

 

Thanks again for your continued support of Infratil. We look forward to sharing further details at Infratil's annual Retail Investor Roadshow throughout June.

For additional updates, you can also follow Infratil on LinkedIn.

Why on gods green earth are they using hydrogen to charge electric vehicles at an airport. That's just nonsense, and likely just a PR move from Toyota.

(In case it's not obvious, the easiest way to power electric vehicles is with electricity. Using a hydrogen powered generator is way more inefficient, and comes with a huge amount of infrastructure, transport logistics, and high safety requirements, and generates carbon like nobodies business)

Hopefully in the not to distant future Ift can float then dump the Airport. And Wellington can keep their hydrogen and Blue Penguins.

That was some resistance level, but SP has broke $11 finally! Now, will it hold?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Apr 17, 2024, 03:33 PMThat was some resistance level, but SP has broke $11 finally! Now, will it hold?

No worries.... $11.00 is just the start.

$11.11 close of play. New High. ;D

Nice upwards trends developing for both IFT and FPH.

Interesting read on how 'cloud services' have benefitted from AI.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/30/amazon-sales-report-ai

Quote from: Left Field on May 01, 2024, 11:23 AMInteresting read on how 'cloud services' have benefitted from AI.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/30/amazon-sales-report-ai

"The earnings report comes after Amazon announced it would invest $11bn to build more data centers in Indiana, promising at least 1,000 jobs there. Also in the quarter, the company extended (https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/aws-nvidia-generative-ai-innovation) its partnership with chip manufacturer Nvidia to continue to power its AI offerings."

I'm not in this. I nearly bought in a while back (I described Infratil at the time - on the other channel - as the only NZ stock I liked). But there were just too many other opportunities around over various asset types. For example, NZ Art went gangbusters for a while, and once you own some quality pieces you figure out that they don't really drop in value, they tend to do the opposite, especially if you time it well and the artist subsequent to purchase, and without too much delay, dies or is unable to paint for whatever reason (loss of painting arm, degraded faculties, etc). And while the artworks appreciate sitting on your walls, they make your life considerably better in an aesthetic type of way, if you're into aesthetics that is. Alongside that asset class, and while the typical New Zealand investor was obsessing over their unfortunate investment in listed bricks and mortar, the once-quiet revolution of A.I. super-intelligence kicked into high gear.

The point I'm making here, is that Infratil in the "old world" (ie, pre ChatGPT first release) was a good buy. It's not now, it's an average buy. Infratil "invests in stuff", right? And we have a chance to invest in Infratil's investing. But they're not investing in the things I want to invest in.

Don't get me wrong: they're a good company, and I think the stock will do okay moving forward, if "okay" is your thing. If they went hard-out with finding and buying quality A.I.-related holdings, and at the same time they dumped questionable policies and investments - such as their obsession with ESG which is thankfully falling out of favor across the world and their continued hold of 50% of very risky RetireAustralia - I would certainly take another look.

To go against what I'm saying, but for a specific reason for an investment, I think Infratil is a good "defensive" stock. If you just want to park some money for while, for whatever reason, Infratil will probably get you your money back plus some more on top.

Another all time high at close of play. There's obviously a bit of confidence going into tomorrow's results. ;D 

Looking good.....plus an increase in divvies..... you can't beat quality in tough times....FY25 outlook looking  impressive

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431367

Proportionate EBITDAF was $864.1 million – a 63% increase on the $531.5 million from the same period the previous year. "While a substantial portion of this increase can be attributed to the higher ownership stake in One NZ since June 2023, even after adjusting for this change, growth stood at an impressive 15.5%.


"FY2025 Proportionate Operational EBITDAF guidance has been set at $980 million to $1,030 million, reflecting the momentum that has been building across the portfolio. This is up 11% at the midpoint on a strong FY2024 result.  "

This result is outstanding. We have become accustomed to negative restlts on the NZX.

IFT is leading the way, and very well positioned to continue the impressive growth rate.

One happy shareholder!

Infratil just keeps rolling out these outstanding results year on year. A FY after tax return of 21.7% and a return of 22% every year for the last ten years. Remarkable. Wonder how long before it gets a serious re-rating as it just seems to fly under the radar, despite being probably the best and most consistent performer on the NZX.

OK - it is a solid result, and the SP clearly driven by expectations of many happy returns of the previous SP gains. Combination of forward P/E (12.1) and forward EPS (8.4) looks quite juicy, however - they will need to keep their good timing when they want to keep cashing in these capital gains.

Lots of happy stories in the report, and they don't miss out any of them ... but if I look at it as a black box, nobody will buy it for its dividends (dividend yield <2%), nobody will buy it for its NTA (35 cents per share) but yes, they managed to buy lately into some promising infrastructure and in the past more often than not got the timing right when selling their assets.

Currently more than 60% of their assets in digital - and sure, data centres do well, but how much will they further appreciate in value? At the end, its not rocket science to build another one. And their big stake in Vodafone (One NZ)? Sure, they say under blind people is the one eyed king, but if I look at NZ, both One NZ as well as Spark offer rather mediocre customer experience. How much further are they going to grow in value?

Renewable energy is 22% of their portfolio, and no doubt - renewables are good. However - there are as well plenty of players in the renewables industry with more patchy records. Question is - will Infratil's renewables players really just leap from success to success, or will they have as well their Siemens Energy moment (look at the SP over the recent years if you don't know what I am talking about).

So I recon what one really pays is for the fund manager to keep their (at least recently) impeccable timing for buying and selling assets. Nobody knows how long this lucky streak will continue (and it well may, but nobody can predict the future), but at least I wouldn't gamble the house on it.

Anyway - congrats to holders - and just keep partying.

Data centres about to explode in the demand for power as well...

A whole new generation of chips is about to fab'd and the costs of the FAB will go up and the demand for power as data centre over load occurs.... The flow of data is only just starting... robots not far off now..

radical 360 degree chips with back side front side designs means the TECH REVOLUTION is only just starting..

lucky there is fibre and 5G .... country might not be as bad shape as some think at the moment...

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 21, 2024, 12:28 PMOK - it is a solid result, and the SP clearly driven by expectations of many happy returns of the previous SP gains. Combination of forward P/E (12.1) and forward EPS (8.4) looks quite juicy, however - they will need to keep their good timing when they want to keep cashing in these capital gains.

Lots of happy stories in the report, and they don't miss out any of them ... but if I look at it as a black box, nobody will buy it for its dividends (dividend yield <2%), nobody will buy it for its NTA (35 cents per share) but yes, they managed to buy lately into some promising infrastructure and in the past more often than not got the timing right when selling their assets.

Currently more than 60% of their assets in digital - and sure, data centres do well, but how much will they further appreciate in value? At the end, its not rocket science to build another one. And their big stake in Vodafone (One NZ)? Sure, they say under blind people is the one eyed king, but if I look at NZ, both One NZ as well as Spark offer rather mediocre customer experience. How much further are they going to grow in value?

Renewable energy is 22% of their portfolio, and no doubt - renewables are good. However - there are as well plenty of players in the renewables industry with more patchy records. Question is - will Infratil's renewables players really just leap from success to success, or will they have as well their Siemens Energy moment (look at the SP over the recent years if you don't know what I am talking about).

So I recon what one really pays is for the fund manager to keep their (at least recently) impeccable timing for buying and selling assets. Nobody knows how long this lucky streak will continue (and it well may, but nobody can predict the future), but at least I wouldn't gamble the house on it.

Anyway - congrats to holders - and just keep partying.

I've sometimes thought about what a marvelous gig this is for Morrison and Co. Buy assets, then revalue the heck out of them on paper and claim massive performance fees for that.  Analysts often seem skeptical of these valuations but shareholders can rely on Morrison being accurate with these on paper gains because they have no vested interest in this...opps hang on a minute. More than $200m in fees with market cap of less than $10B...more than 2% management fees per annum.  No doubt holders think those fees are well earned.  Can't argue with their long term performance though...so far.

Anyway...be that as it may...market unimpressed with the result by the look of it.

Quote from: Basil on May 21, 2024, 03:54 PMAnyway...be that as it may...market unimpressed with the result by the look of it.

Indeed........ this 5 day chart highlights how result expectations got ahead of themselves..... longer term, the upside trend continues.

Quote from: Basil on May 21, 2024, 03:54 PMI've sometimes thought about what a marvelous gig this is for Morrison and Co. Buy assets, then revalue the heck out of them on paper and claim massive performance fees for that.  Analysts often seem skeptical of these valuations but shareholders can rely on Morrison being accurate with these on paper gains because they have no vested interest in this...opps hang on a minute. More than $200m in fees with market cap of less than $10B...more than 2% management fees per annum.  No doubt holders think those fees are well earned.  Can't argue with their long term performance though...so far.

Anyway...be that as it may...market unimpressed with the result by the look of it.

Strong performer over many years. Results speak for themselves and very well positioned. Happy long term holder.

Craigs getting bullish on IFT it seems......


" The main highlight was the FY25 capex guidance, with IFT forecasting
proportionate capex of $2.7-3.1b (compared to $1.7b in FY24). A significant
portion of this is at CDC where IFT expects capex of A$2.35-2.65b (IFT's
proportionate share NZ$1.2-1.4b) as the company ramps up development"

"NAV $11.59. Now trading at a 8% discount to NAV
We estimate the current NAV at $11.59, with IFT currently trading at a 8%
discount to NAV.

Price Target $11.70 (prev $11.35). Rating lifted to Overweight
Our Price Target remains at a 5% discount to our forward NAV estimate
which incorporates the CIP Price Target for MNW, dividends paid and
received, management fees, funding costs, and roll-forward valuations of the
unlisted assets.

We have lifted our rating from Neutral to Overweight reflecting the increase
in our NAV estimate and Price Target. Our valuation of CDC is a key driver of
this and is now 64c per IFT share greater than the Independent Valuers.
Towards the end of FY25 we think the valuers estimate could increase
materially as some significant data centre developments are completed."

Nice to be 'well positioned'.

Wellington City Council has voted 'yes' to  selling its entire stake in Wellington Airport. The shares are worth $278 million.

Hopefully we should see some price action tomorrow.

Quote from: Toddy on May 30, 2024, 08:36 PMWellington City Council has voted 'yes' to  selling its entire stake in Wellington Airport. The shares are worth $278 million.

Hopefully we should see some price action tomorrow.

Seems like pretty small beer in the overall Infratil portfolio?

If IFT can gain full ownership then it opens the door for a possible sharemarket listing, or full sale that should attract a premium.

The Council was always a hand break on any Airport Development. The Wellington City Council is broke with liabilities all the show, like $1.8b estimate to fix leaky pipes.

True. Outright sale possibility could deliver a premium as you say, and the opportunity to recycle cash into higher returning asset.

can anyone on the wellington council count that far?

they will wait for a govt bail out.. then if that does not happen wait for the mayor to get drunk and drive her 4 wheel into parked car late one night...

does she own a car? dont drive and be a politician ... far to dangerous..

NZX might take a pounding as overseas investment flees...

you can see it in stocks SP going no where... but not this one ...

IFT is 'well positioned' on the WCC decision to sell their share in Wellington Airport.

Lots of options...... and all will be decided in the best interests of the shareholders by a management team that have earned my respect.

Up over $11.00 today and a TA chart of great beauty. (Holders bias lol)

Yep, you can't argue with a chart like that, although some still do. Interesting that the SP has gone up ex-dividend. I was hoping for a retrenchment to buy some more. Easily my biggest holding now ;D

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 06, 2024, 10:28 AMYep, you can't argue with a chart like that, although some still do. Interesting that the SP has gone up ex-dividend. I was hoping for a retrenchment to buy some more. Easily my biggest holding now ;D

Similar story here....I'm not a 'trader' and over the last two 'recession' years I have been incrementally buying both FPH and IFT in the 'dips' to the extent that together they both now represent over 50% of my portfolio. Add in GTK and these three represent  70% of my portfolio.  Beginning to feel 'well positioned'!  ;) 

Long may it last.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 06, 2024, 10:52 AMSimilar story here....I'm not a 'trader' and over the last two 'recession' years I have been incrementally buying both FPH and IFT in the 'dips' to the extent that together they both now represent over 50% of my portfolio. Add in GTK and these three represent  70% of my portfolio.  Beginning to feel 'well positioned'!  ;) 

Long may it last.

Well done on staying the course with FPH. Reaping the rewards now. I sold out on the downtrend and forgot to buy back in!

Wow! Up 43c on the day. Has the roadshow prompted the long awaited re-rating exercise? Nearly half a million shared changing hands probably means the institutions are loading up.  ;D 

It's only been a matter of time IMO...... with a lot more to come (but no predictions!!)
 

I went to the roadshow. Hardly a sales pitch but a very well presented picture of the opportunities ahead. In fact the crowd hardly seemed warm to the obvious enthusiasm on show by our fantastic presenter. I have a feeling next year they might be a little more celebratory in nature.

6 June Sharsies  interview with Infatil CEO Jason Boyes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=x8ByFTrIAyM#bottom-sheet

IFT in trading halt today to raise $1.15 Billion for its Data Centre operations........ "an exciting time to be an Infratil shareholder," says Jason Boyes.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432883

Mr Boyes said the growth in demand has caused CDC to accelerate its development and capital expenditure plans:
 
 - CDC's development pipeline continues to expand with the inclusion of the Marsden Park development, a 720MW campus (more than double CDC's current operating capacity), bringing CDC's total planned capacity to around 1,870MW targeted to be operating or under construction by 2033
 
 - CDC expects 200MW+ of capacity to commence construction over the next 12 months, including the first tranche of Marsden Park
 
 Infratil expects to commit equity funding of around A$600 million to CDC over the next two years, which represents its pro-rata share of estimated funding capacity required by CDC to execute on its medium-term development pipeline.
 
 "CDC's growth has accelerated considerably recently, driven by rapid growth in AI-driven data demand. The growth we've announced today is significant, and confirms CDC is a world-class business.
 
 "The NZ$1,150 million we are raising today will not only support the CDC team to address this growth, but also strengthens our ability to expand our renewables, digital and healthcare platforms. This additional capital, combined with the significant growth opportunities ahead, makes it an exciting time to be an Infratil shareholder."

The proceeds of the Equity Raising (combined with cash on hand and currently available and undrawn debt facilities) will provide Infratil with ~NZ$1,809 million of total available liquidity[2]. Following the Equity Raising, wholly owned group gearing will be reduced from 20% to 11.8%[3].

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 17, 2024, 08:38 AMIFT in trading halt today to raise $1.15 Billion for its Data Centre operations........ "an exciting time to be an Infratil shareholder," says Jason Boyes.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432883

Mr Boyes said the growth in demand has caused CDC to accelerate its development and capital expenditure plans:
 
 - CDC's development pipeline continues to expand with the inclusion of the Marsden Park development, a 720MW campus (more than double CDC's current operating capacity), bringing CDC's total planned capacity to around 1,870MW targeted to be operating or under construction by 2033
 
 - CDC expects 200MW+ of capacity to commence construction over the next 12 months, including the first tranche of Marsden Park
 
 Infratil expects to commit equity funding of around A$600 million to CDC over the next two years, which represents its pro-rata share of estimated funding capacity required by CDC to execute on its medium-term development pipeline.
 
 "CDC's growth has accelerated considerably recently, driven by rapid growth in AI-driven data demand. The growth we've announced today is significant, and confirms CDC is a world-class business.
 
 "The NZ$1,150 million we are raising today will not only support the CDC team to address this growth, but also strengthens our ability to expand our renewables, digital and healthcare platforms. This additional capital, combined with the significant growth opportunities ahead, makes it an exciting time to be an Infratil shareholder."

The proceeds of the Equity Raising (combined with cash on hand and currently available and undrawn debt facilities) will provide Infratil with ~NZ$1,809 million of total available liquidity[2]. Following the Equity Raising, wholly owned group gearing will be reduced from 20% to 11.8%[3].

Will go for my full allotment. At $10.15 this is a great opportunity to top-up. Unlike other companies that I won't mention, Infratil's share price has always bounced back very quickly after the CR. It's always been a no brainer to participate in my opinion.

What's the pro-rata amount for this CR? There seems to be different figures in the documents?

> The Placement will comprise the issue of approximately 98.5 million new ordinary shares,
representing approximately 11.8% of current issued capital

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/432883/attachment/420838/432883-420838.pdf

> Approximately 113.3 million new shares to be issued (equivalent to 13.5% of current issued capital)

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/432883/attachment/420839/432883-420839.pdf

Quote from: PunchCard on Jun 17, 2024, 01:48 PMWhat's the pro-rata amount for this CR? There seems to be different figures in the documents?

Full details to be released to eligible shareholders 20 June 2024....

Full details of the Retail Offer will be set out in the Retail Offer
Document, which will be released to the NZX and ASX, and sent to eligible
shareholders in New Zealand and Australia on Thursday, 20 June 2024. The
closing date for applications by eligible shareholders is 5:00pm NZST on
Monday, 8 July 2024.

Quote from: PunchCard on Jun 17, 2024, 01:48 PMWhat's the pro-rata amount for this CR?

> The Placement will comprise the issue of approximately 98.5 million new ordinary shares,
representing approximately 11.8% of current issued capital

> Approximately 113.3 million new shares to be issued (equivalent to 13.5% of current issued capital)

Sssoooo at 11.8% to 13.5% new shares holders need to apply for (roughly) 120 to 140 new shares per 1000 they currently hold to avoid dilution......

Going to be interesting to see how the market reacts today when trading resumes.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432961

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 18, 2024, 08:21 AMSssoooo at 11.8% to 13.5% new shares holders need to apply for (roughly) 120 to 140 new shares per 1000 they currently hold to avoid dilution......

Going to be interesting to see how the market reacts today when trading resumes.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432961

SP currently up 18c to $11.07 - nearly a dollar more than placement price. ???

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 18, 2024, 01:16 PMSP currently up 18c to $11.07 - nearly a dollar more than placement price. ???

Compare that to HGH's recent Cap raise(s)..... say no more  ;) ( Tho early days....)

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 18, 2024, 02:21 PMCompare that to HGH..... say no more  ;) ( Tho early days....)

Huge buying - nearly $27m changing hands. I really thought the price would have gone down, not up, although there may be some selling post-placement. Still, it's a great vote of confidence in IFT's plans. Onwards and upwards!

Details of the retail offer here

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/433105

An Eligible Shareholder that wishes to, at minimum, maintain their proportionate shareholding in Infratil following completion of the Retail Offer would need to subscribe for at least 136 shares for every 1,000 shares that they own on the Record Date. In dollar terms, this means that such Eligible Shareholder's application to participate in the Retail Offer must be for at least NZ$1,381 for every 1,000 shares that they hold[2].

Shares currently trading at $11.08 and retail offer is $10.15. Hmmm...what to do?.. what to do?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 20, 2024, 10:00 AMShares currently trading at $11.08 and retail offer is $10.15. Hmmm...what to do?.. what to do?

Indeed, decisions.... decisions. A nice extra dividend equivalent of roughly $1.00 per new share will ensure the offer is oversubscribed (and I'll be happily adding the maximum allocation possible to my holding.)

Nice to see big volumes still going through around $11.18

Onwards and upwards.

4.5m shares traded and a huge dump at closure driving price down to $10.64. Strange. Still significantly higher than placement price though, and could just be a blip as the SP has been up and down like a yo-yo of late.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 21, 2024, 05:20 PM4.5m shares traded and a huge dump at closure driving price down to $10.64. Strange. Still significantly higher than placement price though, and could just be a blip as the SP has been up and down like a yo-yo of late.

Index rebalance day?

In my inbox this evening.......


We are pleased to report that as we celebrate 30-years of Infratil we continue to build on our legacy of success. During the quarter we announced a strong financial result for the year ended 31 March 2024, while also making significant strides in growing our portfolio.

Since the announcement of our annual results the team has been busy with the announcement of an approximately NZ$1,150 million equity raising to fund further investment into data centre operator CDC's accelerating growth, as well as provide more flexibility for growth across our global portfolio. Full details of the equity raise are available on our website.

Separately, we have nearly completed our 2024 retail investor roadshow, having met with almost 2,000 investors across 17 presentations throughout New Zealand. These meetings provide a great opportunity for shareholders to raise questions, voice concerns, and engage with management. We appreciate and take on board all the feedback we receive from these sessions.

Thank you to all the investors who were able to attend one of these presentations.

Across our portfolio

Digital

CDC is continuing to see a surge in demand for data centre capacity on the back of cloud adoption and significant investments in Generative AI. This rapid increase in demand has seen CDC enter advanced negotiations with customers for over 400MW of capacity at multiple sites across the CDC footprint. This capacity is expected to come online over the next 4 to 5 years.

In parallel, CDC's development pipeline continues to expand with the addition of its Marsden Park development, a 720MW campus (more than double CDC's current operating capacity), bringing CDC's total planned capacity to around 1,870MW targeted to be operating, or under construction, by 2033.

Kao Data has been granted planning permission for a new, 40MW, sustainable data centre in Stockport, Manchester. The 40,000m2 former industrial site, which will become operational in 2026 following its redevelopment, will create a leading infrastructure hub to support Greater Manchester's fast-growing and diverse technology ecosystem - positioning the region as one of the UK's largest high-performance computing and artificial intelligence clusters outside of London and the Oxford-Cambridge arc.

On its one-year anniversary, One NZ launched One Wallet, a digital wallet for its customers, best described as like air points to help buy your next mobile phone. Already One NZ has stacked over $30 million dollars in value in its customers' One Wallet as part of its mission to be the best place to buy a new phone in New Zealand. One NZ customers can access their One Wallet balances and watch them grow via their My One NZ app and the balance can be redeemed on any phone purchased on an interest free term.

For the third year running, One NZ has been awarded Aotearoa's 'Best in Test' mobile network 2024 by independent benchmarking organisation umlaut company, part of Accenture. Mobile connectivity is now an essential part of daily life, and so you need a mobile network that performs at its best. These results show One NZ leads overall, including on voice and data performance, plus reliability.

Renewables

In May, Longroad Energy welcomed a number of dignitaries, including Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, to its Sun Streams Complex. The nearly 200 guests celebrated the progress made to date at the 6,000+ acre solar and storage complex and the many benefits it is delivering to Arizona, including generating clean, solar energy to power 200,000 average American homes, supporting 1,000 construction jobs and providing more than $300 million in benefits to Arizona schools and communities through its long-term leases with the Arizona State Land Department and tax remittances.

Manawa Energy has continued to progress and expand its pipeline of renewable development options in New Zealand, now with a development pipeline of more than 1,200MW of secured solar and wind development options. The projects in its pipeline are expected to present exciting, value-accretive growth opportunities to complement Manawa's existing asset base.

Galileo has announced that it has signed a Corporate Power Purchase Agreement with Cargill, for a new solar PV project to be built in Southern Italy. The planned project will have a total capacity of 79MW and is expected to provide Cargill with approximately 1TWh of green electricity over a period of 10 years, avoiding the emission of more than 450,000 tonnes of CO2.

Gurīn Energy has announced a significant step forward in the development of two solar power plants, Gurīn's first projects in Thailand. In partnership with WHA Utilities and Power Public Company Limited, Gurīn has signed two 25-year power purchase agreements with the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. These agreements involve selling clean, emission-free energy from two solar projects: the 69MW Stella Power 1 in Ratchaburi, set to be commissioned in 2029, and the 59MW Stella Power 2 in Kanchanaburi, set to go online in 2030.

Healthcare

RHCNZ Medical Imaging announced the opening of two new Hamilton branches, including one at Te Kōhao Health Wellness & Diagnostic Centre.

This new clinic, one of the first of its kind, is a partnership between Pacific Radiology and Te Kōhao Health. The clinic will help reduce health inequalities for Māori in the Waikato by providing a new model of care that minimises barriers to access and provides timely, essential health services in an appropriate, whānau-led environment.

RetireAustralia celebrated an important milestone marking the completion of the third and final stage of The Verge at Burleigh G.C., and the opening of its first Care Hub. The Verge offers 168 one, two and three-bedroom independent living apartments, a wellness centre, activities hub, home care services and now a 10-suite Care Hub, an alternative to aged care in an intimate, homelike environment.

Airports

Wellington Airport has welcomed the arrival of a 500,000-litre shipment of Sustainable Aviation Fuel for Air New Zealand, marking the first time the low emissions fuel has been used in the capital and marking a trifecta of decarbonisation wins for the airport in the last year.

It follows Air New Zealand selecting Wellington and Marlborough Airports to host its first all-electric commercial service, transporting cargo across Cook Strait from 2026.

Air New Zealand and Wellington Airport also collaborated on a hydrogen trial earlier this year for charging ground service equipment, supported by Hiringa Energy and Toyota New Zealand.

Elsewhere – Rivers of Wind (pictured above)

Last year our inaugural Sustainability Report and Climate Related Disclosures featured artwork from RIvers of Wind, a digital artwork by Delainy Jamahl. We were delighted to showcase this local artistic talent, especially because it can be interpreted to represent many of the characteristics of Infratil's portfolio through the intersection of climate, renewable energy, digital technology, and of course, Wellington Airport.

Delainy has created a new immersive art space, The Grid, opening in the heart of Wellington this July and August, inviting you to experience art in a whole new light.

Be swept away in Rivers of Wind, a mesmerising immersive experience that draws on 8 years of weather data from the Wellington Airport weather station to visualise the invisible. Rivers of Wind explores the intersection of technology and nature and their effect on the human experience in this captivating exhibition. A continuously looping 48-minute digital artwork, Rivers of Wind is presented in a wrap-around projection environment with a surround soundtrack from renowned New Zealand composer Rhian Sheehan with musician Ed Zuccollo.

We would love for you to support this project over the coming months. The Grid is located at 18 Haining St, Te Aro, with tickets ranging from $15-25.

Thanks again for your continued support of Infratil. We look forward to meeting up with investors in person again at our upcoming Annual Meeting on 22 August in Wellington.

For additional updates, you can also follow Infratil on LinkedIn.

Anyone still in doubt whether to take part in IFT's cap raise should read yesterday's posts on the other channel by posters Kiora and 3141592.

IFT one of the best NZX companies and this cap raise is one of the best investment opportunities around IMO (for holders)

IFT currently sits at over 30% of my portfolio and after the Cap Raise will be even more.

As always DYOR and take responsibility for your  own decisions.

The 30 June 2024 independent valuation of Infratil's investment in CDC shows an increase of A$466 million over the three months since the 31 March 2024 valuation.  (However cynics will say..." it is only a 'valuation".')

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/433951

CDC mid-point valuation now $A4.5 billion with a 85% long term EBITDA margin. Impressive stuff. Have always participated in IFT cap raises and bought steadily over the years whenever there's a dip. 22% gross annual return for the last 10 years! The best- and safest - stock on the NZX, no contest.

Strong retail support for IFT sees oversubscription

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/434374

QuoteInfratil is accepting an additional NZ$125 million [1][2] of subscriptions, bringing the total amount raised under the Retail Offer to NZ$275 million[1][2].

This represents 83% in additional subscriptions. Should we expected folks to receive an additional 83% over the initial 0.136 pro-rata amount? 🤔

Quote from: PunchCard on Jul 12, 2024, 10:28 AMThis represents 83% in additional subscriptions. Should we expected folks to receive an additional 83% over the initial 0.136 pro-rata amount? 🤔

All will be revealed Tuesday 16 July.

I think that over subscription just means that more retail investors took their full entitlement, and IFT honoured the agreement so that shareholders kept their same percentage holdings.

It doesn't mean that shareholders were allocated endless amounts of discounted shares.

Quote from: PunchCard on Jul 12, 2024, 10:28 AMThis represents 83% in additional subscriptions. Should we expected folks to receive an additional 83% over the initial 0.136 pro-rata amount? 🤔

That is pretty much how I read it at a minimum. Should be a bit more than 83% amongst those that applied for a lot more, as presumably some would have applied for their 0.136 entitlement amount only or less that their entitlement amount x 1.83

IFT down ~7% last five days compared to ASX200... Unlikely to be impact of retail offer.

CR allocation done and dusted.

IFT now 22% of my portfolio. Onwards and Upwards.

Quote from: Mos on Jul 13, 2024, 04:16 PMThat is pretty much how I read it at a minimum. Should be a bit more than 83% amongst those that applied for a lot more, as presumably some would have applied for their 0.136 entitlement amount only or less that their entitlement amount x 1.83

We got 48% of what we asked for.

Quote from: Nizzy on Jul 17, 2024, 11:48 AMWe got 48% of what we asked for.

Much better than me, I only got 17% of what I applied for.

Back over $11.00 at close

349k  at $11.11........ showing HGH how a good Cap Raise is done.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 24, 2024, 05:11 PMBack over $11.00 at close

349k  at $11.11........ showing HGH how a good Cap Raise is done.

Spot on. Loyal investors make nearly $1 per share entitlement and IFT receive over $400m and a huge vote of confidence in their growth strategy. Everyone comes out smiling, as it should be.

Another of the reasons I like IFT..... skin in the game.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/435458/attachment/423778/435458-423778.pdf

Precautionary downgrade today to take into account today's news from Manawa Energy.....

This morning Manawa Energy (NZX: MNW), of which Infratil owns 51%, released an update in relation to their EBITDA guidance for the full year to 31 March 2025.
 
 The announcement saw Manawa Energy revise their EBITDAF guidance from NZ$130 – $150 million to NZ$95 – $115 million.
 
 A copy of the Manawa Energy announcement can be found here
 https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435802
 
 As Infratil prepares EBITDAF guidance on a proportional basis, Infratil's Proportionate operational EBITDAF guidance has been updated to reflect this change.
 
 Infratil's adjusted FY2025 Proportionate Operational EBITDAF guidance range is now NZ$962 – $1,012 million (previously NZ$980 – $1,030 million).
 

IFT have held up well in the recent tech rout on the US markets with many tech and A.I. stocks down 20-30%.
Pleased KFL have a good sized allocation.

Report in Business Desk 15 Aug (Behind paywall)

One NZ is gearing up to launch a dedicated fibre business

Seems One NZ will promote its Data centres, international cables and local linkages to offer benefits to key NZ business customers.

No surprise IMO.

AI data transfers going to take a lot of pipe and it could be a case of advanced system automated to AI might need a lot of bits and bytes...

bit like the transformation from the hand controlled loom to fully automated..

A look inside Infratil's CDC data centres and a talk to the CEO.....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/first-look-inside-infratils-10b-ai-data-centre/DWJVAWXPT5G4RCWF4NSGBQ7DNY/

ASM presentation doc FYI.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436667/attachment/425347/436667-425347.pdf

Snoopy's analysis on the other Chanel rates SPK as a good dividend yield at recent SP prices..... and one of his reasons is Spark's 'more measured approach' to investments in Data centres.

Snoopy says...

".....but (IFT) investors are not wary of the cost of Infratil planning new CDC datacentres on a 'build it and they will come' basis. Huh? Don't get me wrong, I am not bagging Infratil and I hope they do well. I want to invest in datacentres. But I prefer Spark's measured approach of having the customers signed up first before the build program is rolled out."

I wondered if Snoopy's 'Build it and they will come' claim was correct...

A recent interview with IFT CEO mentioned that IFT's new data centres were built with 10 yr leases already in place.

In addition on page 32 of IFT's latest report;

" The size, tenor and quality of demand from CDC's customers support its unique approach to delivering capacity at scale and underpin the long-term visibility of CDC's contracted pipeline, extending CDC's weighted average lease expiry to over 30 years (incl. options). Contract options continue to be converted as they occur as a result of CDC's relentless focus on customers, quality and security."

If we also consider:

1.) 62% of IFT's business now in 'digital' on an international scale
2.) $1.1 billion equity raise ready to be utilized primarily in additional digital initiatives.
3.) IFT's ownership of renewable energy assets such as  Long Road Energy positions it well for 'green energy' linked to intensive AI  data needs.
4.) IFT  ownership of AI and high performance data management tools/services via Kao Data etc.
5.) IFT ownership of One NZ .

IFT seems 'well positioned' for increased international digital exposure and when the market appreciates this, there is likely to be a significant re-rating of IFT's SP.

IFT SP getting some love today as it climbs above $11.00.....(approx $NZ 11.50 on the ASX at close,) possibly this news helps put a market value on IFT's  CDC Data Centre plans......Crikey the re-rating of IFT mentioned in the post above might be starting!

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/09/04/blackstone-bites-into-aussie-data-centre/

"Global investment titan Blackstone has snapped up Australian data centre giant AirTrunk for a whopping $23.5 billion. The deal, which marks the largest corporate transaction in Australia this year, underscores the insatiable appetite for data centres as artificial intelligence continues to reshape the technological landscape."


And Business Desk agree's .....( behind a paywall.)

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/why-the-25-billion-airtrunk-datacentre-sale-is-a-useful-reference-for-infratil

IFT really on a tear - up 35c today. Is the mythical re-rating finally becoming a reality? If so, the sky's the limit. ;D

$12.00

Wow! There it is - $12. IFT continues to be the best performing stock that hardly anyone talks about.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 05, 2024, 04:47 PMWow! There it is - $12. IFT continues to be the best performing stock that hardly anyone talks about.

The Mythical re-rating is no longer mythical me thinks its reality time.

Huge volumes today, 2.2 mill shares traded, so it seems there is real interest, real strength......and it's likely to go higher in the days ahead.

FPH also on a tear today.....another 52 week high.... all we need is TWR to do well in tomorrows update and it will be a trifecta!

Congrats to holders.  Not sure I would call FPH up 0.13% on a tear but yes, a new high.  Speaking of trifecta's, I think I hit one today through my fund holdings.
IFT at 16% allocation second biggest holding for Kingfish up 5.55% today.  Hold lots of Kingfish and bought even more today.
NextDC in Australia up 8.4% held in both Barramundi's and Discovery's portfolio.  Holding lots of Barramundi and units in the Discovery fund.
Agree the data centers have plenty of room to run.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 05, 2024, 07:56 PMAgree the data centers have plenty of room to run.

Yes zhey do. Reinvest all profits back in ze business to make ze investment grow faster.   Keep borrowing more against ze increasing value of ze underlying investments to vurther boost growth.  Take advantage of ze 'huge tail vind of demand' for AI as ze 'next big thing'.  Keep building -like everyone else- to meet ze 'exponential demand' vor vhich Infratil vill be able to charge higher and higher prices.

Hmph! Zounds like a parallel 'industry plan' to another zector that has been of great interest to 'Stocktalk' investors of late, thinking about 'retirement'.....

RB

Quote from: Left Field on Sep 05, 2024, 07:45 PMFPH also on a tear today.....another 52 week high.... all we need is TWR to do well in tomorrows update and it will be a trifecta!

Yep, great day at the office. For me it was IFT and HLG - and hopefully TWR tomorrow!

Currently the hype around data centres reminds me of the dot com days, when internet networks where the big rage, and every telco in the world rushed out to install fibre networks everywhere.  This resulted in a massive over supply, nobody could operate at full capacity, and almost everyone went broke.  Company share prices went through the roof then promptly collapsed or went to zero as the cycle played out.

Something to bear in mind before you go all in on the data centre hype. 

Quote from: KW on Sep 06, 2024, 02:56 PMCurrently the hype around data centres reminds me of the dot com days, when internet networks where the big rage, and every telco in the world rushed out to install fibre networks everywhere.  This resulted in a massive over supply, nobody could operate at full capacity, and almost everyone went broke.  Company share prices went through the roof then promptly collapsed or went to zero as the cycle played out.

Something to bear in mind before you go all in on the data centre hype.

Who went broke? Not the infrastructure or fibre companies. The dot com bubble was built on business's with ideas but no capital, no assets and no profit and they are the one's who went broke. As for internet networks being "the big rage" - well that's a bit like saying electricity is just a passing fad ;)

With AI on the cusp of becoming mainstream, the demand for increased data storage and processing capability is only getting started. IFT have been ahead of the curve on this and it's why their capitalisation value continues to climb strongly and the SP has nearly trebled in 5 years.

disc: My biggest holding by far.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 06, 2024, 03:11 PMWho went broke? Not the infrastructure or fibre companies. The dot com bubble was built on business's with ideas but no capital, no assets and no profit and they are the one's who went broke. As for internet networks being "the big rage" - well that's a bit like saying electricity is just a passing fad ;)

With AI on the cusp of becoming mainstream, the demand for increased data storage and processing capability is only getting started. IFT have been ahead of the curve on this and it's why their capitalisation value continues to climb strongly and the SP has nearly trebled in 5 years.

disc: My biggest holding by far.

Lots of them.  The most famous was Global Crossing.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Crossing
It wasnt just "dot com" companies that went broke - those that supplied everything from fibre networks, to server hardware, to services also went under.  I was there, I remember.  Most of them were absorbed into competitors until there were only a few left.  Hardly any of the big name infrastructure providers of the late 90's early 2000s still exist today.

And by "big rage" I mean trendy share price fervour.  Just because electricity is permanent doesnt make investing in an electricity company a good investment.  I mean cell phones arent a passing fad either, yet do you own Blackberry, Nokia or Motorola?

Every man and his dog is jumping on the "lets build data centres" bandwagon.  I predict it will end in tears (for shareholders).  Because its just the same old cycle repeating - like railroads in the 1800s to fibre networks in the 2000s

Quote from: KW on Sep 06, 2024, 03:30 PMLots of them.  The most famous was Global Crossing.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Crossing
It wasnt just "dot com" companies that went broke - those that supplied everything from fibre networks, to server hardware, to services also went under.  I was there, I remember.  Most of them were absorbed into competitors until there were only a few left.  Hardly any of the big name infrastructure providers of the late 90's early 2000s still exist today.

And by "big rage" I mean trendy share price fervour.  Just because electricity is permanent doesnt make investing in an electricity company a good investment.  I mean cell phones arent a passing fad either, yet do you own Blackberry, Nokia or Motorola?

Every man and his dog is jumping on the "lets build data centres" bandwagon.  I predict it will end in tears (for shareholders).  Because its just the same old cycle repeating - like railroads in the 1800s to fibre networks in the 2000s

Global Crossing (a controversial US company of nearly 30 years ago) is a bit of a stretch if it's supposed to be a cautionary tail for fibre networks that have been laid in recent years. I really don't think the executives at Chorus lie awake at night worrying about it.

You can find companies in any industry that have failed (eg your examples of Motorola etc). That doesn't mean one has to avoid the industry altogether - just be careful about which company you choose to invest in (and for how long).

More broadly, IFT invest in a wide range of assets of which data centres are only one. You're be hard pressed to find a safer stock on the NZX. And a big part of their business model involves building up assets and then selling them. It may well be that CDC will be sold at a huge premium at some point. Part of the recent SP surge for IFT has been Blackstone's purchase of Aussie datacentre Airtrunk for $23.5 BILLION. They obviously see a bright future for data centres and, as I'm sure you would agree, Blackstone are no mugs when it comes to investing.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 06, 2024, 04:22 PMGlobal Crossing (a controversial US company of nearly 30 years ago) is a bit of a stretch if it's supposed to be a cautionary tail for fibre networks that have been laid in recent years. I really don't think the executives at Chorus lie awake at night worrying about it.

You can find companies in any industry that have failed (eg your examples of Motorola etc). That doesn't mean one has to avoid the industry altogether - just be careful about which company you choose to invest in (and for how long).

More broadly, IFT invest in a wide range of assets of which data centres are only one. You're be hard pressed to find a safer stock on the NZX. And a big part of their business model involves building up assets and then selling them. It may well be that CDC will be sold at a huge premium at some point. Part of the recent SP surge for IFT has been Blackstone's purchase of Aussie datacentre Airtrunk for $23.5 BILLION. They obviously see a bright future for data centres and, as I'm sure you would agree, Blackstone are no mugs when it comes to investing.

Look, bubbles are driven by lots of non-mug investors spending ways too much money in creating an oversupply of something which - in moderation - well might have its justification. No matter whether these are tulip bulbs, an untimely oversupply of care beds for retirement villages or lithium companies. We had them all, and I think KW is just saying that data centres might have the potential to be the next bubble.

I think she has a point.

But absolutely - if you think that the need for data storage will grow exponentially from here, then keep ramping IFT - Oops, no - better be quiet and keep buying them! It's just - nature does not know unlimited exponential growth, and at the time the shoeshine boy recommends the share it is the time to sell :) ;

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 06, 2024, 04:22 PMGlobal Crossing (a controversial US company of nearly 30 years ago) is a bit of a stretch if it's supposed to be a cautionary tail for fibre networks that have been laid in recent years. I really don't think the executives at Chorus lie awake at night worrying about it.

Its not a cautionary tail for fibre networks of today - its a cautionary tale for shareholders buying into the hoopla in the 90s as the "Internet" was the "story".  The entire point is that it was 30 years ago.  And the exact same thing is happening today with the AI "story", including the massive overbuild of data centres.

And what value and expertise does IFT add?  They are not pureplay specialist data centre providers with years of experience in building and managing data centres.  They are simply jumping on the bandwagon.  Its like every upstart in the 90s who suddenly thought they could build a telco overnight, like Packer and OneTel.   Hilarious how history repeats as soon as there are few investors around to remember how it all went wrong last time.

CDC has been operating since 2007 so hardly new to the sector. Greg Boorer was the founder and is the current CEO with skin in the game. I am very comfortable that he and Infratil know what they are doing.
Disclosure: Infratil is my largest holding

Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 06, 2024, 04:36 PMLook, bubbles are driven by lots of non-mug investors spending ways too much money in creating an oversupply of something which - in moderation - well might have its justification. No matter whether these are tulip bulbs, an untimely oversupply of care beds for retirement villages or lithium companies. We had them all, and I think KW is just saying that data centres might have the potential to be the next bubble.

I think she has a point.

But absolutely - if you think that the need for data storage will grow exponentially from here, then keep ramping IFT - Oops, no - better be quiet and keep buying them! It's just - nature does not know unlimited exponential growth, and at the time the shoeshine boy recommends the share it is the time to sell :) ;

Everything has potential to go wrong or right, but I'd say IFT are about as steady and as reliable an investment as you can get, because of their diversity. Fixate on data centres if you like but what about telecommunications, airports, renewable energy. Bubbles as well?

Quote from: KW on Sep 06, 2024, 05:01 PMIts not a cautionary tail for fibre networks of today - its a cautionary tale for shareholders buying into the hoopla in the 90s as the "Internet" was the "story".  The entire point is that it was 30 years ago.  And the exact same thing is happening today with the AI "story", including the massive overbuild of data centres.

And what value and expertise does IFT add?  They are not pureplay specialist data centre providers with years of experience in building and managing data centres.  They are simply jumping on the bandwagon.  Its like every upstart in the 90s who suddenly thought they could build a telco overnight, like Packer and OneTel.   Hilarious how history repeats as soon as there are few investors around to remember how it all went wrong last time.

I think what you may be saying as that one has to be vigilant about one's investments. I can agree with that at least. But everything I have read indicates to me that data centres will be in increasing demand for at least the sort of time frame I invest in (5-10years). The vast majority of industry boffins and investment houses would agree. Data-centres will evolve and be more energy efficient and the technology within them will change, but they are not going away any time soon. If you have any ideas on what might replace them in the next, say, 20 years, I'd be genuinely interested to know.

Quote from: KW on Sep 06, 2024, 05:01 PMIts not a cautionary tail for fibre networks of today - its a cautionary tale for shareholders buying into the hoopla in the 90s as the "Internet" was the "story".  The entire point is that it was 30 years ago.  And the exact same thing is happening today with the AI "story", including the massive overbuild of data centres.

And what value and expertise does IFT add?  They are not pureplay specialist data centre providers with years of experience in building and managing data centres.  They are simply jumping on the bandwagon.  Its like every upstart in the 90s who suddenly thought they could build a telco overnight, like Packer and OneTel.  Hilarious how history repeats as soon as there are few investors around to remember how it all went wrong last time.

Most of the data centres being built today have nothing to do with AI, they are being built to serve the ever growing need for data storage and cloud computing as most enterprises continue the great migration form on-premise servers to cloud servers. Ditto consumers moving all their data and content consumption to the cloud rather than storing locally.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 06, 2024, 06:55 PMEverything has potential to go wrong or right, but I'd say IFT are about as steady and as reliable an investment as you can get, because of their diversity. Fixate on data centres if you like but what about telecommunications, airports, renewable energy. Bubbles as well?

Nobody says that IFT will go down the drain. I am just saying that they are currently priced for perfection and a bit more. One of their larger investments suffering from bubble deflation and their capital will go down. That's not the end of the world, but it won't be pleasant for holders who thought that an investment into IFT puts them on a one way street to riches.

Its the same as with any other investment - at the stage the shoe shine boys are ramping them up, they might be as solid as they can be, but they inevitably will be too dear.

And just have a look into Infratil's history - it would not be the first time for them to make bad investment decisions (like European Airports or NZ bus), and it would not be the first time either that their share  price goes down and lingers for the better part of a decade in the doldrums. Just check how long it took their share to recover from the deflation of the 2007 bubble.

Just looking at their other industries:

Telecommunications? Well, I agree we are likely to keep telecommunicating for some years to come, however - its easy in this business to miss the jump to the next technology, which automatically puts you into the losers pit. Plenty of big companies went down that way by missing the change - cart manufacturers, Xerox, IBM, anybody sticking too long with copper. And just lets face it - Vodafone (or One.NZ as they call themselves these days) are neither particularly innovative, nor do they have a particularly good customer service. I doubt that they will be the money spinners of the future, at best they are another MeeToo.

Airports: Give us a break - Airports are overall ways overvalued and I can't see them significantly increasing their income and growing. At this stage its fairer to assume that we reached peak travel (due to climate crisis and peak human) and all will go down from here. Never a good idea to buy or own an asset at peak prices.

Alternative Energies - yes, sure - they are likely to be a growth industry. However - nobody can predict which energy will win and same as with telecommunication - if you put your money into one of the loosing threads its gone. Just look into the history of alternative energies so far - Ways more investors lost parts of their investment (look e.g. at NWF in NZ or Siemens Energy in Europe) than getting rich with it. Pity that you can't drive the windmills with the hype some of the posters produce.

I see IFT in bubble territory - and this is already bad without worrying about the horrendous fees the fund manager is extorting from the share holders. The capital value might drop, but not so sure about the fees.

But again - its fine with me if you see that differently ... its not my money :) ;

IFT added to the S & P ASX 300 index

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02850008_PS-2A1547093&v=fc9bdb61fe50ea61f8225e24ce041a0e155a9400

GTK also.....

Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 07, 2024, 10:57 AMNobody says that IFT will go down the drain. I am just saying that they are currently priced for perfection and a bit more. One of their larger investments suffering from bubble deflation and their capital will go down. That's not the end of the world, but it won't be pleasant for holders who thought that an investment into IFT puts them on a one way street to riches.

Its the same as with any other investment - at the stage the shoe shine boys are ramping them up, they might be as solid as they can be, but they inevitably will be too dear.

And just have a look into Infratil's history - it would not be the first time for them to make bad investment decisions (like European Airports or NZ bus), and it would not be the first time either that their share  price goes down and lingers for the better part of a decade in the doldrums. Just check how long it took their share to recover from the deflation of the 2007 bubble.

Just looking at their other industries:

Telecommunications? Well, I agree we are likely to keep telecommunicating for some years to come, however - its easy in this business to miss the jump to the next technology, which automatically puts you into the losers pit. Plenty of big companies went down that way by missing the change - cart manufacturers, Xerox, IBM, anybody sticking too long with copper. And just lets face it - Vodafone (or One.NZ as they call themselves these days) are neither particularly innovative, nor do they have a particularly good customer service. I doubt that they will be the money spinners of the future, at best they are another MeeToo.

Airports: Give us a break - Airports are overall ways overvalued and I can't see them significantly increasing their income and growing. At this stage its fairer to assume that we reached peak travel (due to climate crisis and peak human) and all will go down from here. Never a good idea to buy or own an asset at peak prices.

Alternative Energies - yes, sure - they are likely to be a growth industry. However - nobody can predict which energy will win and same as with telecommunication - if you put your money into one of the loosing threads its gone. Just look into the history of alternative energies so far - Ways more investors lost parts of their investment (look e.g. at NWF in NZ or Siemens Energy in Europe) than getting rich with it. Pity that you can't drive the windmills with the hype some of the posters produce.

I see IFT in bubble territory - and this is already bad without worrying about the horrendous fees the fund manager is extorting from the share holders. The capital value might drop, but not so sure about the fees.

But again - its fine with me if you see that differently ... its not my money :) ;

If you've looked at IFT's  history then I presume you've looked at the share price history. I note that you're been professing doom for IFT on the other channel for some time. In the meantime those of us who believed in their strategy 5 years ago have trebled our investment (plus dividends). To the victor the spoils.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 07, 2024, 06:31 PMIf you've looked at IFT's  history then I presume you've looked at the share price history. I note that you're been professing doom for IFT on the other channel for some time. In the meantime those of us who believed in their strategy 5 years ago have trebled our investment (plus dividends). To the victor the spoils.

Cool story so I brought up a 5 year chart.  Was $4.89 this time 5 years ago so that's a 143% increase.  Jarden website shows a "whopping" 1.93% dividend yield, so I guess plus dividends needs to be also put into its proper context. 

Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2024, 06:42 PMCool story so I brought up a 5 year chart.  Was $4.89 this time 5 years ago so that's a 143% increase.  Jarden website shows a "whopping" 1.93% dividend yield, so I guess plus dividends needs to be also put into its proper context. 

I bought most of my shares in early 2020 when the SP was around $4. So yes, trebled. Divvy's are low so that's why it escapes a lot of investors attention, but as a growth stock IFT has no equal. I don't expect that to change and the current re-rating going is evidence of that.

No argument it's a good company with an impressive track record but to be fair, a lot of the share prices of companies really tanked in early 2020 with the onset of Covid so if your starting reference point is around that time it's going to artificially inflate the return relative to what most other holders have achieved.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2024, 07:14 PMNo argument it's a good company with an impressive track record but to be fair, a lot of the share prices of companies really tanked in early 2020 with the onset of Covid so if your starting reference point is around that time it's going to artificially inflate the return relative to what most others have achieved.

The covid period doesn't really change any of the underlying figures, which seem to get lost on some with  all the talk about a potential bubble. IFT has a 10 year total shareholder return of 22%. In the last THIRTY years it's 18.7%. That's one hell of a bubble!

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 07, 2024, 07:25 PMThe covid period doesn't really change any of the underlying figures, which seem to get lost on some with  all the talk about a potential bubble. IFT has a 10 year total shareholder return of 22%. In the last THIRTY years it's 18.7%. That's one hell of a bubble!

Yeah, I've had a look at their long-term returns before and there is no argument, they are very impressive. To be clear, I'm not the one calling it a bubble. I'm happy Kingfish have a decent stake, and I was busy buying more Kingfish at a ~ 10% discount to NTA this week. 

Dividend hounds often overlook IFT because its shareholder returns come in a mix of dividends and SP appreciation.

I've posted this chart before but here it is again showing IFT's returns from 1994 to present in 5 yr bands compared to NZX50   (I guess the NZX 50 would be a close to a proxy to Basil's Kingfisher funds??)

Nuff said.

Kingfish have been beating the NZX50 and at times you can buy them at up to a 10% discount to NTA.
Some dog's are value investors and have also done extremely well over the long run, just like IFT have.  More than one way to skin a cat leftie, enough said.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 06, 2024, 07:10 PMI think what you may be saying as that one has to be vigilant about one's investments. I can agree with that at least. But everything I have read indicates to me that data centres will be in increasing demand for at least the sort of time frame I invest in (5-10years). The vast majority of industry boffins and investment houses would agree. Data-centres will evolve and be more energy efficient and the technology within them will change, but they are not going away any time soon. If you have any ideas on what might replace them in the next, say, 20 years, I'd be genuinely interested to know.

You have still completely missed my point.  Its not about the increasing demand.  Its about the increasing supply.  If supply increases ahead of demand (as everyone rushes to build them) then they all go broke due to under utilisation or inability to profitably price.  Of course demand will increase, just like demand for the Internet and mobile phone networks increased.  Yet, there were many spectacular collapses in those industries due to over supply and price competition driving operators out of business.

Mobile phone usage has increased dramatically.  Yet how many mobile network operators do we have?  Internet bandwidth demand is still voracious, yet how many fibre network providers per area do we have?  What would happen if we had 10  mobile networks, and 10 fibre providers?  How many of them would make money?  How many would survive?  That is the exact issue that DC operators are now facing with so many new entrants to the market, and the massive expansion of floor space from existing operators.  I think it took like 20 years or something before demand finally caught up with the massive overbuild of internet networks by the telcos during the 90's. 

I've seen it all before.  That being said, the trend is your friend, so ride it so long as its up.  But when the trend turns (and it will) dont fall in love with the stock and ride it all the way back down again.  Thats what you need to be vigilant about.

Quote from: KW on Sep 08, 2024, 03:26 PMYou have still completely missed my point.  Its not about the increasing demand.  Its about the increasing supply.  If supply increases ahead of demand (as everyone rushes to build them) then they all go broke due to under utilisation or inability to profitably price.  Of course demand will increase, just like demand for the Internet and mobile phone networks increased.  Yet, there were many spectacular collapses in those industries due to over supply and price competition driving operators out of business.

Where do get your idea about the potential for oversupply from? Apart from some completely erroneous analogy from the distant past that is.  Everything I have read from industry and objective analysts say that the demand for data centres is going to increase at a rapid pace and supply is struggling to keep up and is likely to do so for some time.. The training and use of generative AI is going to compound that demand. That's why they are being built and some of the biggest investment houses (eg Blackstone) are getting on board. So where on earth do you come up with the idea that supply will increase ahead of demand and "they all go broke." Who will go broke? Amazon? Google? Microsoft? The banks? All the major telco's around the world? Because that's who's is building and using them at a rapidly expanding rate.

And my  point that you've missed is that IFT are pretty good at building infrastructural assets and then, when they see an opportunity to sell, they do so. If datacenters do reach peak supply, I'd expect IFT to have seen that coming and moved on accordingly.

However, stick with your decision not to buy IFT. I'm sticking with mine to accumulate in the dips (of which there are precious few). Re-convene in 5 years.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 08, 2024, 03:46 PMWhere do get your idea about the potential for oversupply from? Apart from some completely erroneous analogy from the distant past that is.  Everything I have read from industry and objective analysts say that the demand for data centres is going to increase at a rapid pace and supply is struggling to keep up and is likely to do so for some time.. 

LOL.  Do you not think they said the exact same thing about internet and mobile networks?  Then everyone builds at the exact same time, and "suddenly" there is 20 times the required amount available. 

Quote from: KW on Sep 08, 2024, 05:49 PMLOL.  Do you not think they said the exact same thing about internet and mobile networks?  Then everyone builds at the exact same time, and "suddenly" there is 20 times the required amount available.

Really strange logic you're employing.

On the one hand you seem to be saying there is massive demand for data storage and you don't seem to deny that it will increase exponentially in the coming years. But instead of saying, well there's a real growth opportunity for visionary companies (IFT bought a half share in CDC 8 years ago and it's value has gone through the roof since), you seem to be foretelling (in an unspecified timeframe) oversupply and boom and bust.

Very curious considering EBITDA for CDC alone has gone from 147m in 2021 to 271m in 2024. Guidance is set at a further 20% growth to 320m in 2025. It's a strange world you occupy where sustained growth and forecasts like that can be interpreted as a portent of doom ::)

Very interesting........ data centres and now more power.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437789


Infratil, which owns 51% of Manawa Energy, will support Contact Energy's proposed acquisition of Manawa pursuant to a Scheme Implementation Agreement, subject to certain conditions.
 
 Manawa today announced that it has entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement where Contact will acquire 100% of Manawa via a scheme of arrangement, if approved by Manawa's shareholders (Scheme). Manawa shareholders will receive cash consideration of $1.16 per share[1] and 0.5719 Contact shares for every Manawa share they hold prior to implementation of the Scheme. A copy of the Manawa announcement is attached.
 
 Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said Infratil has entered into a binding Voting Agreement with Contact under which Infratil has committed to vote its 51% stake in Manawa shares in favour of the Scheme subject to certain conditions.
 
 "The total offer price of $5.95 - based on the 5-day volume-weighted average price of Contact's shares prior to announcement - represents around a 48% premium to the Manawa share price prior to the announcement."
 
 "If the Scheme proceeds as announced, and subject to any pre-completion dividends, Infratil's gross cash proceeds from the sale will be approximately NZ$186 million and following completion we will own approximately 9.5% of Contact."
 

And IFT get about $180m cash on the deal

From email sent to BOP residents who benefit from TECT

Proposed aquisition of
Manawa Energy
by Contact Energy


Manawa Energy Limited announced to the NZX this morning that it has agreed to accept an acquisition offer, to be made by Contact Energy Limited through a Scheme of Arrangement.

TECT is a 26.8% shareholder of Manawa (formerly Trustpower) and this shareholding has been a core investment for the Trust since 1993. TECT, alongside Infratil (51% shareholder of Manawa), supports the proposed acquisition.



The price from Contact is $5.95 for each of Manawa's shares. That represents attractive value to Manawa's shareholders with an uplift of approximately 50% on the Manawa share price in the last month (which has ranged between $3.94 and $4.16).



TECT believes this is a compelling proposal that will deliver significant value to our future asset base. TECT also foresees positive impacts for our community long term, by way of sustained and potential increases to grant funding.



If the acquisition proceeds, TECT will become a shareholder in one of New Zealand's leading energy companies (Contact), and receive a cash payment. The increased liquidity as well as an exposure to arange of energy assets nationally, will diversify TECT's investment portfolio.



This acquisition is conditional on approval from the Commerce Commission and the High Court and requires at least 75% of Manawa shareholders to accept, following regulatory sign off. 

Quote from: Left Field on Sep 11, 2024, 08:36 AMVery interesting........ data centres and now more power.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437789


Infratil, which owns 51% of Manawa Energy, will support Contact Energy's proposed acquisition of Manawa pursuant to a Scheme Implementation Agreement, subject to certain conditions.
 
 Manawa today announced that it has entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement where Contact will acquire 100% of Manawa via a scheme of arrangement, if approved by Manawa's shareholders (Scheme). Manawa shareholders will receive cash consideration of $1.16 per share[1] and 0.5719 Contact shares for every Manawa share they hold prior to implementation of the Scheme. A copy of the Manawa announcement is attached.
 
 Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said Infratil has entered into a binding Voting Agreement with Contact under which Infratil has committed to vote its 51% stake in Manawa shares in favour of the Scheme subject to certain conditions.
 
 "The total offer price of $5.95 - based on the 5-day volume-weighted average price of Contact's shares prior to announcement - represents around a 48% premium to the Manawa share price prior to the announcement."
 
 "If the Scheme proceeds as announced, and subject to any pre-completion dividends, Infratil's gross cash proceeds from the sale will be approximately NZ$186 million and following completion we will own approximately 9.5% of Contact."
 

Yep, data centres and renewable energy. Who'd have thought there would be a future in it?

No one loves IFT it seems..... I had to dive 3 pages deep to find this thread.

This just to say...... yay another all time high today as the SP climbs above $13.

Thank you IFT!

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 05, 2024, 04:47 PMWow! There it is - $12. IFT continues to be the best performing stock that hardly anyone talks about.

6 weeks on and now $13. 11 weeks ago it was $11. Absolutely relentless.

I've got a swag in my nz share fund, very happy holder.

MSCI NZ index......SPK out....... IFT in.

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Nov24_STPublicList.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 07, 2024, 11:27 AMMSCI NZ index......SPK out....... IFT in.

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Nov24_STPublicList.pdf

Looking into what trading patterns to expect around IFT index promotion, here's a counterpart to the 'index removal' charts I just posted (https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?msg=27018) on the SPK thread.

Big volume on the 25th is all but guaranteed - let's say around 75M shares. Although that's driven by ETF buying, it'd be unusual for it to push the price up.

If I really squint, there's a pattern that suggests IFT goes up this week, down next week, and up again the following week. But it's only a few percent either way, and the net change is close to zero.

But yeah, there's always other stuff going on in the world to keep us guessing. The ATM chart is a case in point - the drop following soon after the index announcement was triggered by this trading update (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318030). Buying into that good news would've lost you 20% within days.

(https://dl.imgdrop.io/file/aed8b140-8472-4813-922b-7ce35ef93c9e/2024/11/06/MSCI-Global-Standard-NZ-Additions-IFT-pending85f31f6a2e73438c.png)

Quote from: bulltrap on Nov 07, 2024, 08:36 PMLooking into what trading patterns to expect around IFT index promotion, here's a counterpart to the 'index removal' charts I just posted (https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?msg=27018) on the SPK thread.

Big volume on the 25th is all but guaranteed - let's say around 75M shares. Although that's driven by ETF buying, it'd be unusual for it to push the price up.

Thanks Bulltrap, useful charts.

For me, Index inclusion/exclusion is not in itself a reason to buy/sell any stock, however,  it is encouraging when a stock you have chosen for your portfolio gets caught up in the index hype! lol.

IMO Getting your TA and FA right are the keys to good investing, and in IFT's case the next update scheduled for 14 Nov  will give us much more important info on which to base our decisions.

Good update today.....operational EBITDAF for the half year of $506 million – a 25% increase on the $400 million from the same period the previous year – with full year guidance on track.

The FY2025 Proportionate operational EBITDAF guidance range has been narrowed at the top end to NZ$960–$1,000 million (previously NZ$962-$1,012 million).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/441869

Interestingly over the last 2 weeks Australian shorters have taken rare IFT negative positions  based I suspect on the USA election results and Trumps "drill baby drill" call as shown here (bearing in mind the 4 trading day delay in this report).... refer.....

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=IFT

Today's update and subsequent conference call calmed fears around the LongRoad USA business which is well protected by 2-3 year forward contracts and although IFT is treading carefully in the US, at this stage it seems the shorters have got it wrong. Ouch.

So maybe some short term volatility due to the shorters...... but longer term IFT looks set to perform well.

Another snippet from the briefing...  following a recent Aust airport sale, IFT's stake in Wellington airport is due to be revalued.... upwards.

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 14, 2024, 12:35 PMGood update today.....operational EBITDAF for the half year of $506 million – a 25% increase on the $400 million from the same period the previous year – with full year guidance on track.

The FY2025 Proportionate operational EBITDAF guidance range has been narrowed at the top end to NZ$960–$1,000 million (previously NZ$962-$1,012 million).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/441869

Interestingly over the last 2 weeks Australian shorters have taken rare IFT negative positions  based I suspect on the USA election results and Trumps "drill baby drill" call as shown here (bearing in mind the 4 trading day delay in this report).... refer.....

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=IFT

Today's update and subsequent conference call calmed fears around the LongRoad USA business which is well protected by 2-3 year forward contracts and although IFT is treading carefully in the US, at this stage it seems the shorters have got it wrong. Ouch.

So maybe some short term volatility due to the shorters...... but longer term IFT looks set to perform well.

Another snippet from the briefing...  following a recent Aust airport sale, IFT's stake in Wellington airport is due to be revalued.... upwards.

Yeah, I too read about the shorting going on based on Trumps comments. My response was to buy a couple of thousand more. Meanwhile IFT just keep producing the results and their valuations continue to increase.

As you say, LongRoad is contractually well protected in the short-term, but it's also true that at state level the move to renewables will continue. LongRoad operate and are based in Democrat strongholds in both the House and Senate, so even if the Federal Government make things difficult I would expect the State Government to pick up the slack.

Infratil down $1 since 29 October even though its been confirmed it's going into the MSCI index.  Go figure?  What do the Infratil enthusiasts make of that?

Quote from: Basil on Nov 19, 2024, 09:18 PMInfratil down $1 since 29 October even though its been confirmed it's going into the MSCI index.  Go figure?  What do the Infratil enthusiasts make of that?

Mr Market moves in mysterious - and occasionally, baffling -  ways. See Spark. Both though have embedded value, and once the disruptors have had their fill, it will be business as usual.

Its bizarre.

I see a lot of ASX listings influenced by shorts and traders, IFT does seem to be becoming a trader's stock with large movements. I bet if it was entirely ASX it would be worse.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 19, 2024, 09:34 PMMr Market moves in mysterious - and occasionally, baffling -  ways. See Spark. Both though have embedded value, and once the disruptors have had their fill, it will be business as usual.

Obviously - one could say as well that at times the market comes to its senses, stops the hype machine and starts to focus on real value (starts weighing). No fundamentals can justify the bubble IFT is currently in. While investing in renewables is the right way, one can pay too much for anything, no matter how sensible it is, particular if the crowds egg each other on applying plenty of Group Think. Hard to find fundamentals justifying IFT's current SP.

And SPK - well, don't get me started :) ;

Just over a Bill NZD worth of IFT traded today

Go the passive fundies

Interesting that IFT sat out the global tech rally in the last 4 months of 2024 and is now breaking down through key support levels, (clear breakdown through the 180 day MA for example), and looks very bearish from a TA perspective.  Hype from datacenters now done and dusted?  I am sure long-term investors will not be perturbed in the slightest, but in the short term, maybe more pain to come ?

Quote from: Basil on Jan 13, 2025, 05:09 PMInteresting that IFT sat out the global tech rally in the last 4 months of 2024 and is now breaking down through key support levels, (clear breakdown through the 180 day MA for example), and looks very bearish from a TA perspective.  Hype from datacenters now done and dusted?  I am sure long-term investors will not be perturbed in the slightest, but in the short term, maybe more pain to come ?

It certainly participated in the 2024 rally, exploding from $9.86 to $13.27, with about half of those gains coming post the Sept breakout.

But yes, the data centre hype has been revealed as just that, hype.  See the sell off in NXT as well.  

Screenshot 2025-01-13 172307.png

Seems I am not the only person left who remembers the dot com fibre roll outs.  

https://www.afr.com/technology/the-wall-of-money-heading-for-data-centres-has-short-sellers-excited-20250106-p5l2ah

High-profile hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has warned of dangers that an investment boom in data centres could result in far too much capacity, casting doubt on the record prices assets in the sector have attracted.

Mr Chanos, in a series of posts to social media platform X, compared the boom in data centre projects to the overinvestment in fibre optic networks two decades earlier. "I can still hear the fibre optic cable guys saying demand was 'infinite' in 2000 because internet traffic was doubling every quarter (it wasn't)," he wrote in response to a post that claimed the demand for data centres was so great that the sector could never build enough capacity.

Quote from: KW on Jan 13, 2025, 05:30 PMSeems I am not the only person left who remembers the dot com fibre roll outs. 

https://www.afr.com/technology/the-wall-of-money-heading-for-data-centres-has-short-sellers-excited-20250106-p5l2ah

High-profile hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has warned of dangers that an investment boom in data centres could result in far too much capacity, casting doubt on the record prices assets in the sector have attracted.

Mr Chanos, in a series of posts to social media platform X, compared the boom in data centre projects to the overinvestment in fibre optic networks two decades earlier. "I can still hear the fibre optic cable guys saying demand was 'infinite' in 2000 because internet traffic was doubling every quarter (it wasn't)," he wrote in response to a post that claimed the demand for data centres was so great that the sector could never build enough capacity.

Chanos is a notorious hedge fund shorter. As much practical use to the traditional, long term investor as a cat flap on a submarine.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 13, 2025, 05:09 PMInteresting that IFT sat out the global tech rally in the last 4 months of 2024 and is now breaking down through key support levels, (clear breakdown through the 180 day MA for example), and looks very bearish from a TA perspective.  Hype from datacenters now done and dusted?  I am sure long-term investors will not be perturbed in the slightest, but in the short term, maybe more pain to come ?

Sharemarket might just react to various fascist statements that they want to tear down wind generators.

Bad for IFT, but hey - everybody jumping to make Musk and his minions happy.

Musk farts, Trump amplifies and IFT drops.

https://www.semafor.com/article/08/30/2024/german-state-election-state-elections-far-right-afd-centers-anti-wind-energy-stance

Quote from: KW on Jan 13, 2025, 05:26 PMIt certainly participated in the 2024 rally, exploding from $9.86 to $13.27, with about half of those gains coming post the Sept breakout.

But yes, the data centre hype has been revealed as just that, hype.  See the sell off in NXT as well. 

Screenshot 2025-01-13 172307.png

A series of lower high's and lower lows in recent months looks pretty ominous.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 13, 2025, 06:29 PMA series of lower high's and lower lows in recent months looks pretty ominous.

If your timeframe for investing is recent months then yes, ominous. But IFT's long term graph is one of steady growth with only a few blips. One can't be complacent at any time with any stock, but iFT's growth has been as solid as they come. The current drift downwards is, in my view, just a normal correction to an SP that got a little ahead of itself. Trying to suggest it has something to do with "datacenter hype" is pure speculation.  If or when the datacenter market does look to become saturated, then I would expect IFT to sell down its interests at a very healthy profit, just as they have done with other assets.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 13, 2025, 09:23 PMIf your timeframe for investing is recent months then yes, ominous. But IFT's long term graph is one of steady growth with only a few blips. One can't be complacent at any time with any stock, but iFT's growth has been as solid as they come. The current drift downwards is, in my view, just a normal correction to an SP that got a little ahead of itself. Trying to suggest it has something to do with "datacenter hype" is pure speculation.  If or when the datacenter market does look to become saturated, then I would expect IFT to sell down its interests at a very healthy profit, just as they have done with other assets.

Hmm - datacenters seem to approach the end of their bubble. Windmills seem to be unpopular during the time of dumb right monsters taking power all around the world (though I don't understand, what the poor windmills have done to them, but anyway), and lets face it - airports will have a difficult time as well with global warming on the rise and 1.5 degrees out of the window. Flight shame.

Does not mean that IFT will be out of business, but markets might start wondering, whether it is really worth the premium they were prepared to pay over the past decade or so.

Similar problem like Spark. Just a move back to a more decent PE ratio, nothing serious, but clearly painful for holders.

IFT targets 11-15% total shareholder return over a ten year rolling period. In the last ten years it has achieved 21.4% yearly return. That's why the stock has been worth its premium. If it continues to achieve those returns the stock will continue to go up, the odd blip notwithstanding.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 14, 2025, 10:32 AMIFT targets 11-15% total shareholder return over a ten year rolling period. In the last ten years it has achieved 21.4% yearly return. That's why the stock has been worth its premium. If it continues to achieve those returns the stock will continue to go up, the odd blip notwithstanding.

Problem is - I can't see these amazing growth numbers in IFT's earnings.  10 year average PE is 22 and (for what the forecasts are worth) - future PE looks even worse: 25.  I guess backwards earning CAGR (10yrs) was not too bad: 11.5, but on the other hand badly distorted by one off gains based on speculative sales), but forwards earning CAGR is negative.

Lets face it - the return of the past decade was just punters driving the share price (and with that the PE) higher and higher. Standard - self full-filling prophecy in a Group Think environment. Look at the history of any bubble, this is how it works. People don't buy anymore for the underlying value, but for the crowd which is buying as well.

The thing is - all these bubbles pop at some stage. Hard to predict exactly when, but lets face it - currently IFT's investments have a lot of headwinds. One of them might well be the needle causing the pop. 

I suspect that with every man and his dog into datacenters and renewable energy now, returns going forward will be just "average".  Subtract from that average, Morrison's (approx.) 2 % per annum management charge and returns could be below average.  Speaking of dog's and other interests, one thing I know for certain, you can't buy much food for your dog or diesel for your boat with a 1.88% gross dividend yield. (off Jarden's website).

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 14, 2025, 10:48 AMProblem is - I can't see these amazing growth numbers in IFT's earnings.  10 year average PE is 22 and (for what the forecasts are worth) - future PE looks even worse: 25.  I guess backwards earning CAGR (10yrs) was not too bad: 11.5, but on the other hand badly distorted by one off gains based on speculative sales), but forwards earning CAGR is negative.

Lets face it - the return of the past decade was just punters driving the share price (and with that the PE) higher and higher. Standard - self full-filling prophecy in a Group Think environment. Look at the history of any bubble, this is how it works. People don't buy anymore for the underlying value, but for the crowd which is buying as well.

The thing is - all these bubbles pop at some stage. Hard to predict exactly when, but lets face it - currently IFT's investments have a lot of headwinds. One of them might well be the needle causing the pop. 

If you had got a 21% return, year on year, for the last ten years, would you be fretting over what the forward/backward PE is/was?
And isn't capital gain of any kind ultimately derived from market valuation?  To dismiss the last 10 years of spectacular growth as just "punters driving the share price" doesn't make any sense. Last time I checked that's how most of us investors make our money.
I guess you can call 10-15 years of growth a "bubble" but's it's a bit of a stretch. IFT are so well diversified and so responsive to new areas of investment, they are the antithesis of a boom and bust stock.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2025, 10:58 AMI suspect that with every man and his dog into datacenters and renewable energy now, returns going forward will be just "average".  Subtract from that average, Morrison's (approx.) 2 % per annum management charge and returns could be below average.  Speaking of dog's and other interests, one thing I know for certain, you can't buy much food for your dog or diesel for your boat with a 1.88% gross dividend yield. (off Jarden's website).

You can't measure all stocks by the same yardstick - IFT are not, and never have been, a dividend stock.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 14, 2025, 03:48 PMIf you had got a 21% return, year on year, for the last ten years, would you be fretting over what the forward/backward PE is/was?
And isn't capital gain of any kind ultimately derived from market valuation?  To dismiss the last 10 years of spectacular growth as just "punters driving the share price" doesn't make any sense. Last time I checked that's how most of us investors make our money.
I guess you can call 10-15 years of growth a "bubble" but's it's a bit of a stretch. IFT are so well diversified and so responsive to new areas of investment, they are the antithesis of a boom and bust stock.

Past share price performance after an ATH might be fun to brag about around the pub table, but it is for any investor for future investment decision (including - do I hold?) absolutely irrelevant. Only question would be: What is the best place to put my money today?

I doubt IFT will continue with these historic share price growth rates (this was the only thing really growing) which it only achieved by PE expansion. It well might have reached its maximum some months ago with a double peak in October - November.

Anyway - are now planning now to do a Spark on them and defend them every dollar down the trend chart? Just remember us - how did this work with Spark for you?

That's the thing with hype bubbles: what goes up needs to come down.

BP mentions rerating and loungelizaed mentions valuation gains

Then Price/Book maybe an appropriate metric

March 2016 IFT share price $3.30 and Book Value $3.42 share ....ie P/B .96

Now Book Value $8.45.

If P/B was still 0.96 share price would be $8.10

As share price $11.70 could say $3.60 is the reward for being brillant.

Book grown by 147% since 2016 ...share price by 254%

As BP says who long the rerating continue ...ie will share price match book value gains ...or might even be a rerating down

Great post Winner. To the best of my recollection for much of IFT's life it's traded based on book value, after all Morrison is basically a fund manager with a few very large asset positions which it regularly reviews the price thereof to generate performance fees.  Currently trading at about a 35% premium to NTA.

Dangerous business paying premiums like that for fund managed assets. Often leads to many years of sub par returns for shareholders who pay such a high premium.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 14, 2025, 05:13 PMBP mentions rerating and loungelizaed mentions valuation gains

Then Price/Book maybe an appropriate metric

March 2016 IFT share price $3.30 and Book Value $3.42 share ....ie P/B .96

Now Book Value $8.45.

If P/B was still 0.96 share price would be $8.10

As share price $11.70 could say $3.60 is the reward for being brillant.

Book grown by 147% since 2016 ...share price by 254%

As BP says who long the rerating continue ...ie will share price match book value gains ...or might even be a rerating down

I think if you did that exercise for our biggest companies, from F&P to the banks to electricity companies, you'll find the SP significantly ahead of NTA. These companies trade at a premium because of strong investor belief in the companies prospects going forward. Occasionally there's a re-rating up or down but long term investors are not bothered by that. That said, I wouldn't be totally passive regarding IFT - I cash up a few shares when the SP surges, buy in again on the dips. Has worked for ten years and I don't see any reason to change at this stage.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2025, 06:42 PMGreat post Winner. To the best of my recollection for much of IFT's life it's traded based on book value, after all Morrison is basically a fund manager with a few very large asset positions which it regularly reviews the price thereof to generate performance fees.  Currently trading at about a 35% premium to NTA.

Dangerous business paying premiums like that for fund managed assets. Often leads to many years of sub par returns for shareholders who pay such a high premium.

Again - 21% total shareholder returns for the last ten years. Fixation on dividends means you have missed out on what has been probably the strongest and longest run of any NZ company.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 14, 2025, 04:35 PMPast share price performance after an ATH might be fun to brag about around the pub table, but it is for any investor for future investment decision (including - do I hold?) absolutely irrelevant. Only question would be: What is the best place to put my money today?

I doubt IFT will continue with these historic share price growth rates (this was the only thing really growing) which it only achieved by PE expansion. It well might have reached its maximum some months ago with a double peak in October - November.

Anyway - are now planning now to do a Spark on them and defend them every dollar down the trend chart? Just remember us - how did this work with Spark for you?

That's the thing with hype bubbles: what goes up needs to come down.

You change with the wind. You say that trying to predict the future is a waste of time, now past performance can't be used either. What's left - flip a coin?
And no - I'm not "defending" IFT or Spark for that matter. Just stating why I continue to hold a stake in each - for entirely different reasons of course.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 14, 2025, 06:50 PMAgain - 21% total shareholder returns for the last ten years. Fixation on dividends means you have missed out on what has been probably the strongest and longest run of any NZ company.

More than 20% compounded for 10 years results in tremendous gains over a decade, ask me how I know lol.  I haven't missed anything and have achieved similar results in a different and lower risk way with shares spread and diversified over a much wider range of assets.  I get it why people are happy with IFT's long term performance, I really do but I still believe they are a quasi-fund manager that deserves to be trading close to asset backing.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2025, 07:48 PMMore than 20% compounded for 10 years results in tremendous gains over a decade, ask me how I know lol.  I haven't missed anything and have achieved similar results in a different and lower risk way with shares spread and diversified over a much wider range of assets.  I get it why people are happy with IFT's long term performance, I really do but I still believe they are a quasi-fund manager that deserves to be trading close to asset backing.

Well, that's what I'm saying - there's more than one way to invest - growth stocks, dividend stocks, fund stocks, a mix of all. There's little point in being critical of a stock that's patently performed, simply because you have been able to make similar amounts doing something different. It's not an either or.

Fair enough...I'm just fishing around for some new idea's for 2025.  I think Winners comment about the premium to NTA is the best one in this thread for ages and one which resonates with me, which means for me this is not a buy at this point in time, but I totally get it why long-term holders are happy campers.

You probably have enough exposure to IFT though KFL anyway Basil.

Quote from: mike2023 on Jan 15, 2025, 07:51 AMYou probably have enough exposure to IFT though KFL anyway Basil.

Ouch. Two slices of eye-watering management fees. Prefer to keep it to one slice myself.

Quote from: Mos on Jan 15, 2025, 08:58 AMOuch. Two slices of eye-watering management fees. Prefer to keep it to one slice myself.

Or zero zlices?   Just buy ze class of shares zhat Infratil invests een directly?

RB

Quote from: Red Baron on Jan 15, 2025, 09:05 AMOr zero zlices?   Just buy ze class of shares zhat Infratil invests een directly?

RB

And pay full price? Why, when you can get an 8% discount and PIE fund credits.

Quote from: mike2023 on Jan 15, 2025, 09:15 AMAnd pay full price? Why, when you can get an 8% discount and PIE fund credits.

Mid Point Valuation of Infratil's CDC Data Centre Stake

September 2023: $3,884m
December 2023: $4,017m
March 2024:$4,058m
June 2024: $4,524m
September 2024; $4,811m

But zhese valuations are not based on 'present day profits'.   Zhey are based on discounted cashflow valuations of 'vuture profits'.   Zo eef ze earnings projections go down and/or ze discount rate to evaluate vuture profits goes up, zhen these data centre valuations vill go down.   By reducing ze zhrae price of other listed data centres, Mr Market eez telling you zhat a revaluation downwards vor datacentres eez already happening.   Zhus ze 8% discount you theenk you are getting, by purchasing Infratil zhares on market at a discount to NTA eez likely illusory. 

RB

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 14, 2025, 06:58 PMYou change with the wind. You say that trying to predict the future is a waste of time, now past performance can't be used either. What's left - flip a coin?
...

Your post doesn't make sense. Apart from trying to pick cherries - the two statements you made up on my behalf are not even inconsistent. What is your point?

And no, flipping a coin - while clearly an option - is not an option I would recommend as investment strategy. Ever tried to look at earnings potential, (realistic) growth expectations and asset base? 

If a stock is getting dearer and dearer on PE basis, than either they stand in front of a step change (these things do happen), or more likely they are approaching the next cyclical SP peak.

Sure - IFT seemed to have over the recent years a lucky streak in buying cheap and selling dear assets (though it didn't always work, didn't it), but they managed as well to minimize this way their NTA. Yes, they do hold so called blue chips, but the only thing which is left of their asset base but goodwill is earnings potential - and this is, just looking at their past earnings, quite mediocre. It certainly is now, and considering that every Tom, Dick and Harry is competing with them to build renewable energy as well as data centers ... am I not seeing where huge earnings growth is supposed to come from.

Ever checked by how much the annual income of IFT would need to rise to justify their current share price? But hey, maybe they find again a bigger fool, as they did with Z ... and with the mobile towers to sell their assets, though not yet sure with the latter whether it was the buyer or the seller to take the fools role.

Anyway - always good to hold a share in an uptrend ... just a good idea to get out while it is still up. Didn't seem to have worked for the people who are still holding Spark. IFT in my view shows parallels, and not just the keenness on building datacenters, but as well the asset stripping strategy.

But no doubt - this time it will be different.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 15, 2025, 01:24 PMYour post doesn't make sense. Apart from trying to pick cherries - the two statements you made up on my behalf are not even inconsistent. What is your point?

And no, flipping a coin - while clearly an option - is not an option I would recommend as investment strategy. Ever tried to look at earnings potential, (realistic) growth expectations and asset base? 

If a stock is getting dearer and dearer on PE basis, than either they stand in front of a step change (these things do happen), or more likely they are approaching the next cyclical SP peak.

Sure - IFT seemed to have over the recent years a lucky streak in buying cheap and selling dear assets (though it didn't always work, didn't it), but they managed as well to minimize this way their NTA. Yes, they do hold so called blue chips, but the only thing which is left of their asset base but goodwill is earnings potential - and this is, just looking at their past earnings, quite mediocre. It certainly is now, and considering that every Tom, Dick and Harry is competing with them to build renewable energy as well as data centers ... am I not seeing where huge earnings growth is supposed to come from.

Ever checked by how much the annual income of IFT would need to rise to justify their current share price? But hey, maybe they find again a bigger fool, as they did with Z ... and with the mobile towers to sell their assets, though not yet sure with the latter whether it was the buyer or the seller to take the fools role.

Anyway - always good to hold a share in an uptrend ... just a good idea to get out while it is still up. Didn't seem to have worked for the people who are still holding Spark. IFT in my view shows parallels, and not just the keenness on building datacenters, but as well the asset stripping strategy.

But no doubt - this time it will be different.

You talk about forward and backward PE's, potential for earnings growth, management decision making etc, without seeming to be aware that you are engaged in the apparently verboten act of predicting the future and assessing the past. You claim that all investors need to do is assess what a stock is worth today, without thinking it through that in doing so investors will have to consider the future and the past. That's my point.

It's clear that you  have a bee in your bonnet about IFT and that is unfortunately preventing you from perhaps admitting that you missed out years ago (when you were saying the same thing). Most of us find it easy to admit we wished we got on board any number of stocks that did well, because of course, we can't catch them all. But instead you choose to spout revisionary nonsense about 10 years of 20% year on year growth as being "a lucky streak"  and the bubble will burst....soon...later...whenever...

To put the current downtrend (if that's what it is) into context, IFT closed out the 2024 year with the SP at 10.89 - after another year of 22% growth. Today's SP - which is the lowest it has been for the last 4 months - is $11.81. Add in dividends then investors still have made over 10% in what might be construed as a bad year. IFT's target for this year is for total shareholder returns to be 15%. The SP only needs to partially recover for that target to be attained. I think it will.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2025, 08:43 PMFair enough...I'm just fishing around for some new idea's for 2025.  I think Winners comment about the premium to NTA is the best one in this thread for ages and one which resonates with me, which means for me this is not a buy at this point in time, but I totally get it why long-term holders are happy campers.

Yes, it has done really well in last few years, but have noticed the small downtrend in last 3 months or just catching their breath. The 30day MA crossed over the 60day MA just recently. Like you, wouldn't mind picking up a few at a discounted price but see where it settles. But in the mean time, I have been a bad boy and ended up buying more SPK instead of selling.  I suppose I can look forward to next div of 25c in March. :-\

Quote from: seaweed on Jan 24, 2025, 10:32 AMI have been a bad boy and ended up buying more SPK instead of selling.  I suppose I can look forward to next div of 25c in March. :-\

Err try 12.5c.   25 cents eez vor ze vull year.

RB

From Kiora on the other channel.......(thanks)

AI-Driven Power Boom Will Drive Demand 38% Higher on Top US Grid

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-driven-power-boom-drive-233825622.html

IFT well positioned....

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 26, 2025, 07:41 AMFrom Kiora on the other channel.......(thanks)

AI-Driven Power Boom Will Drive Demand 38% Higher on Top US Grid

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-driven-power-boom-drive-233825622.html

IFT well positioned....

That's assuming that king Dump isn't killing the windmills as he indicated, isn't it?

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 26, 2025, 04:52 PMThat's assuming that king Dump isn't killing the windmills as he indicated, isn't it?

Nope.....

IFT only builds USA energy supply based on 10 year user/supply contracts plus IFT are currently biased to solar in the USA.

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/longroad-energy-update/

Lastly - If the USA makes things too difficult there will be plenty of alternative options for IFT energy investments elsewhere in the world where IFT already has strong representation (eg Europe/Japan/Singapore/Malaysia etc.)

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/renewable-energy-update/

- Global investment in the energy transition hit a record US$1.8tr in 2023, to reach net zero this needs to almost triple for the remainder of the decade

• New investment in renewable energy reached yet another record in 2023, coming in 10% higher than a year earlier

• Solar was the main driver for growth in renewable investments, accounting for more than half the global total with a 12% year-on-year increase

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 26, 2025, 05:23 PMNope.....

IFT only builds USA energy supply based on 10 year user/supply contracts plus IFT are currently biased to solar in the USA.

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/longroad-energy-update/

Lastly - If the USA makes things too difficult there will be plenty of alternative options for IFT energy investments elsewhere in the world where IFT already has strong representation (eg Europe/Japan/Singapore/Malaysia etc.)

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/renewable-energy-update/

- Global investment in the energy transition hit a record US$1.8tr in 2023, to reach net zero this needs to almost triple for the remainder of the decade

• New investment in renewable energy reached yet another record in 2023, coming in 10% higher than a year earlier

• Solar was the main driver for growth in renewable investments, accounting for more than half the global total with a 12% year-on-year increase

Just tried to tease :) ;

No doubt - wind (and solar) are sensible renewable energy options and (in a energy mix) necessary to stem climate change.

No doubt as well they will survive the idiot government (not just) in the US. President non elect Musk currently pushing a far right anti windmill party in Germany (AFD). He does not even seem to understand that his hyperinflated cars need electricity.

However - renewable energies have currently a lot of political headwind from the extreme right - and it will take at least several years (possibly longer) for this headwind to recede. This was my point.

No matter whether IFT owns a good portfolio of future proof companies (or not - not all renewables will turn out to be as well profitable) - my concern is more that the current IFT investment mix is priced for perfection (which is always a good reason for SP drops) - and the political headwinds against renewable energy coming from the extreme right and dumb does not help.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 14, 2025, 05:13 PMBP mentions rerating and loungelizaed mentions valuation gains

Then Price/Book maybe an appropriate metric

March 2016 IFT share price $3.30 and Book Value $3.42 share ....ie P/B .96

Now Book Value $8.45.

If P/B was still 0.96 share price would be $8.10

As share price $11.70 could say $3.60 is the reward for being brillant.

Book grown by 147% since 2016 ...share price by 254%

As BP says who long the rerating continue ...ie will share price match book value gains ...or might even be a rerating down

Morrisons run IFT like a managed fund with just a few concentrated positions.  Very rare for managed funds to trade at a huge premium to NTA isn't it ?  It would be interesting, not sure if you have the time or inclination mate, but to see a plot of the last 15 years of price as at balance date relative to NTA. 

Quote from: Basil on Jan 27, 2025, 09:13 AMMorrisons run IFT like a managed fund with just a few concentrated positions.  Very rare for managed funds to trade at a huge premium to NTA isn't it ?  It would be interesting, not sure if you have the time or inclination mate, but to see a plot of the last 15 years of price as at balance date relative to NTA. 

If, as BP pointed out, Fisher Funds have returned 10% per year on average for the last ten years and IFT have returned 21%, which "managed fund" would you rather have had your money with, regardless of NTA?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 27, 2025, 02:48 PMIf, as BP pointed out, Fisher Funds have returned 10% per year on average for the last ten years and IFT have returned 21%, which "managed fund" would you rather have had your money with, regardless of NTA?

No question Morrisons have done a good job of managing IFT's assets up to now and they've also been paid very well to do it. Whether IFT is worth the current premium to NTA is another thing ?  Notable in recent months they've sat out the global rally in tech.  Worth noting too that the two alternatives have a different risk profile with KFL having a more diversified range of investments, (although, not as diversified as I would like).

Everyone thought RYM and ATM were the absolute ducks' guts and couldn't put a foot wrong and you simply couldn't lose holding long term...until it all went wrong.  I wonder how shareholders who paid twice or three times the current share prices of those companies are feeling all these years later? (RYM were ~ $9 a whole decade ago and ATM got to nearly $22 at one point).  Just as well there's no risk whatsoever of IFT losing market darling status...or is there ?

Sure, you can still make the case that early investors in RYM and ATM have still done exceptionally well, just as early investors have in IFT, but that doesn't mean paying elevated prices now is a sure-fire recipe for outperformance going forward as the above examples clearly illustrate.

Bit of a mind bender comparing IFT's NTA and KFL's NAV. IFT is KFL's second largest holding (14%) and is included in KFL's NAV at market value i.e. $11.62. KFL's largest holding (19%) as we know is FPH which has a share price of $39.12 and an NTA of $3.05 but from a KFL reporting point of view the NAV is $39.12. KFL's third largest holding (10%) MFT has a share price of $70.26 and an NTA of $15.79 but from a KFL reporting point of view the NAV  is the $70.26. So KFL has plenty of premium baked in to its "NAV".

Hi Mos.  You've rather conveniently overlooked the fact that that all other assets in KFL's portfolio, apart from IFT, are not funds management companies per se so they trade on their earnings metrics.  The simple case I make is that what amounts to an asset or fund manager, which is what IFT ostensibly is, should be measured by its NTA rather than its earnings like all other companies are.   I guess holders would prefer to value IFT's on its lumpy earnings and try and say the shares are a great hold based on that.  If that's the case then again, I struggle to see the current share price as being an attractive entry point.   At least with Kingfish they have the disclaimer that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Perhaps something for IFT shareholders to keep in mind.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 27, 2025, 07:02 PMHi Mos.  You've rather conveniently overlooked the fact that that all other assets in KFL's portfolio, apart from IFT, are not funds management companies per se so they trade on their earnings metrics.  The simple case I make is that what amounts to an asset or fund manager, which is what IFT ostensibly is, should be measured by its NTA rather than its earnings like all other companies are.   I guess holders would prefer to value IFT's on its lumpy earnings and try and say the shares are a great hold based on that.  If that's the case then again, I struggle to see the current share price as being an attractive entry point.   At least with Kingfish they have the disclaimer that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  Perhaps something for IFT shareholders to keep in mind.

If you think that IFT should be considered a "fund" rather than a company  and therefore "measured by its NTA rather than its earnings like all other companies are," then that does explain why you choose to ignore it. But by doing so you end up ignoring the "fund" (IFT) whose 10 year return is twice that of KFL, simply because it trades above it's NTA And KFL below it.
I would ignore the whole NTA red herring, and then one can then see IFT as simply being an over-performing company and  KFL an under-performing fund.

 

Hi Basil, interesting perspective. I don't regard Infratil as a fund. I see it as a corporate with a collection of high value businesses (albeit with an expensive management team). Agree it is priced at a level that requires continued strong performance - but not the same extent as FPH which is 19% of KFL NAV.

Agreed.  FPH is an acronym for fully priced holding :)

Quote from: Basil on Jan 27, 2025, 09:45 PMAgreed.  FPH is an acronym for fully priced holding :)

Very good!

IFT's future AI energy growth plans may need revision as a result of China's new AI chip that requires less power compared to USA chips....

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/tech/deepseek-stocks-ai-china/index.html

No need to panic (thanks to IFT's 10 year contracts) ....... but well worth watching....... always good to dance near the exit!

Its fun being a tech investor, no?  

Quote from: KW on Jan 28, 2025, 12:06 PMIts fun being a tech investor, no? 

Some good debate on the other channel.
Interesting article posted over there.  https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/vistra-constellation-talen-ai-data-center-stocks-e2e0f706
My cautionary posts about paying premium prices for stocks that are priced for perfection, assuming perfection will go on indefinitely were very timely.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 28, 2025, 07:02 AMIFT's future AI energy growth plans may need revision as a result of China's new AI chip that requires less power compared to USA chips....

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/tech/deepseek-stocks-ai-china/index.html

No need to panic (thanks to IFT's 10 year contracts) ....... but well worth watching....... always good to dance near the exit!

Yep, one can't be complacent but also not to over-react to every bit of news that hits the wire. Will see how it pans out - could be a time to sell down a bit or buy on the over-reaction.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 13, 2025, 06:29 PMA series of lower high's and lower lows in recent months looks pretty ominous.

Looks like the imminent demise of IFT has been postponed......lol.

IFT back to its 5yr trend line and onwards and upwards from here.

Good news on this front possibly the catalyst today......... https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02909949-2A1576611

Back to 5 year trend line, really ?
Coincidentally I was looking on their website last evening and they boast of a 23% CAGR in the last 5 years. That has turned every $1.50 of capital pre covid into $4.20 now. That fantastic result given 5 years of turmoil from Covid and the almost endless recession post Covid no doubt leaves Morrison and Co executives with a very contented feeling about their investment efforts as well as IFT shareholders. Feels marvellous especially if you can do that without paying egregiously high fees, ask me how I know lol

However, I note the share price was $10.95 at the start of April 2024 so despite booming tech markets worldwide  last year, the share price in the last 10 and a bit months is up only 2%.

Bump in the road or the start of an era of lower returns?...only time will tell but I'd be absolutly gutted with myself if all I could have done so far this financial year was 2% plus a modest divvy or two.

When was the CR ?

Quote from: Basil on Feb 07, 2025, 05:51 PMBack to 5 year trend line, really ?
Coincidentally I was looking on their website last evening and they boast of a 23% CAGR in the last 5 years. That has turned every $1.50 of capital pre covid into $4.20 now. That fantastic result given 5 years of turmoil from Covid and the almost endless recession post Covid no doubt leaves Morrison and Co executives with a very contented feeling about their investment efforts as well as IFT shareholders. Feels marvellous especially if you can do that without paying egregiously high fees, ask me how I know lol

However, I note the share price was $10.95 at the start of April 2024 so despite booming tech markets worldwide  last year, the share price in the last 10 and a bit months is up only 2%.

Bump in the road or the start of an era of lower returns?...only time will tell but I'd be absolutly gutted with myself if all I could have done so far this financial year was 2% plus a modest divvy or two.

Wood for tree's. You should be more gutted that you missed out on 21% return each year for the last ten years.

They quoted 20% 10 year CAGR on their website when I looked last evening.  Amazing long term run rate, for sure. Anyone who has achieved anything close to that using their own skills should feel very content.

Yeah, capital raise muddies the water a bit, maybe they have done 3% plus dividend(s) so far this financial year ? I think I'd be looking to fire myself as my own fund manager if that was all I could do with booming international tech markets.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Feb 07, 2025, 06:11 PM.... You should be more gutted that you missed out on 21% return each year for the last ten years.

Exactly, long term 5yr and 10yr charts show the recent 'sell-down' was a buying opportunity or a top up opportunity in an excellent company for those who can see further than the naysayers.

Happy to hold IFT at 20% of a well balanced portfolio.

CDC Data Centres' auction of a 12.5 per cent slice in the $16 billion-plus business is done and dusted.
Street Talk can reveal CDC Data Centres' shareholders, the $9.5 billion dual-listed Infratil and the $238 billion Future Fund, have leveraged their pre-emption rights to acquire the stake that was held by the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation (CSC). Barrenjoey Capital Partners oversaw the negotiations.

AFR tonight

Thanks Crackity here's the announcement from IFT re CDC..... good move imho

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/446853

Infratil Limited ("Infratil") (NZX/ASX: IFT) today announces that, alongside The Future Fund ("Future Fund"), it has exercised pre-emption rights to acquire a 12.04% stake in CDC Data Centres ("CDC") from Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation ("CSC") following an external sale process launched in November 2024.
 
 Under the agreement, Infratil will acquire approximately 1.58% of CDC's ordinary shares for ~A$216 million, with Future Fund acquiring the remainder (10.46%) of the 12.04% stake sold by CSC. Upon completion, Infratil, Future Fund and CSC will own 49.75%, 34.55% and 12.04% of CDC, respectively. The CDC management, led by CEO Greg Boorer as the largest individual shareholder, will retain 3.66% of shares.
 
 The consideration represents an Equity Value of A$13.7 billion (100% basis) and is consistent with Infratil's return requirements. The purchase price is subject to customary completion adjustments.
 
 Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said, "CDC has been one of our most successful investments, and this increased ownership reinforces our commitment to investing in 'ideas that matter'. It reflects our strong conviction in CDC and the powerful tailwinds driving digital infrastructure.
 
 "With this investment, Infratil gains additional governance rights, and we look forward to working alongside Future Fund and CSC to support CDC's strategic direction and long-term growth. We remain focused on expanding CDC's capacity and delivering high-quality digital infrastructure to meet our customers' growing demand.
 
 "With a strong shareholder base and a long-term investment horizon, CDC is well-positioned to make the investments needed for sustained growth across key markets."
 
 With a total of ~2.5GW of capacity across its operational, under construction and development pipeline, CDC is a strategic data centre provider of global scale and a long-term partner to some of the largest and most important organisations in the world.
 

CEO purchased  476,190 shares @ $10.50 on the market.

CFO also purchased more shares.

Encouraging votes of confidence.

The CEO now has over 1.9 mill shares all purchased on the market..... ie not provided as incentives.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/447553/attachment/438594/447553-438594.pdf

(Nice buffer for me as  the CEO's av holding SP is now well above mine! )

Wow, not mucking around, $5m worth!

Anyone who can afford to write a cheque like that is obviously extremely well paid. Genuine question I have always wondered.  Seeing as Morrisons are paid such a truly handsome fee to manage all IFT's assets, what exactly does the extremely well-paid CEO do ?

Quote from: Basil on Feb 28, 2025, 04:08 PM.... what exactly does the CEO do ?

Cynical question by a non-holder.

 If you ever decide to attend an IFT meeting.... you will find out.

(FWIW I've met the CEO and several Board members including the late Lloyd Morrison. A very. very impressive team, doing great things. )

Quote from: Basil on Feb 28, 2025, 04:08 PMAnyone who can afford to write a cheque like that is obviously extremely well paid. Genuine question I have always wondered.  Seeing as Morrisons are paid such a truly handsome fee to manage all IFT's assets, what exactly does the extremely well-paid CEO do ?

He's employed by Morrisons and not paid directly by IFT

IFT pays Morrisons a rather large ( but totally justified so far ) management fee.....


And I met and talked to Tim Brown a few times - he is a switched on cookie
I always like the IFT and Morrisons roadshows

Thanks for explaining that Crackity.

Interesting IFT chart, overbought moving to oversold, then revert to mid channel.
IFT.jpg

Quote from: Cod on Mar 10, 2025, 03:40 PMInteresting IFT chart, overbought moving to oversold, then revert to mid channel.
IFT.jpg

I think the jury is still out, whether they will return into the rising channel. President Dump clearly changed the game by adding a huge amount of uncertainty to the industry, but particularly to everything which could help us to stem climate change.

I expect the markets to significantly reduce the premium for anything renewable until Dump and his henchmen leave the stage for good. This might be in two years (if he looses the midterms and gets finally and properly impeached), four years (dto) or later. Until then IFT is running particularly in the US some high risk businesses and the market will price them accordingly. 

... actually interesting dilemma for holders:

Clearly - if Trump manages to combine Trumpflation together with Trumpcession as he seems to be hellbent to do (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/09/trump-recession-trade-tariffs), it clearly is not good for anybody dependent on the US markets. This includes Infratil's renewables in the US, but as well any other stocks. On the bright side - it might kill Trump and at least end Trumps economical and political folly.

If however Trump manages to stay in the saddle, he promised to kill any renewable energy (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/03/trump-war-on-clean-energy-big-oil) and replace them with CO2 emitters. Can't be good for a company which did place its bets on stemming climate change, can it?

No matter what happens, I don't see how IFT can win against the MAGA dilusion. Bad bet.

Most investors would regard IFT as a long term hold - perhaps selling down/topping up in times like these, depending on one's risk appetite. But it's still a very good bet regardless of the current "noise" surrounding renewables in the US.

I really don't see Trump and his pro fossil fuel agenda as being a medium term threat - even he can't hold back the tide. Renweables accounted for 93% of all new capacity in the US last year, even as fossil fuel production soared. There are certainly challenges ahead, but there's a great deal of push-back against Trmps anti-renewables rhetoric at State level. 132 mayors and local officials from 39 states – 23 of which voted for Trump in 2024 – sent a letter to Congress demanding they preserve all renewable-energy tax credits available to state and local government. And solar power is particularly big in Republican Southern states. One-quarter of new capacity was built in Texas. Second place was Florida, another Republican stronghold.

So yeah, challenges for sure, and IFT might not reach it's target of 15% shareholder net growth this year, but in the medium-long term it's still a very strong hold in my view.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Mar 11, 2025, 12:19 PMMost investors would regard IT as a long term hold - perhaps selling down/topping up in times like these, depending on one's risk appetite. But Ift is still a very good bet regardless of the current "noise" surrounding renewables in the US.

I really don't see Trump and his pro fossil fuel agenda as being a medium term threat - even he can't hold back the tide. Renweables accounted for 93% of all new capacity in the US last year, even as fossil fuel production soared. There are certainly challenges ahead, but there's a great deal of push-back against Trmps anti-renewables rhetoric at State level. 132 mayors and local officials from 39 states – 23 of which voted for Trump in 2024 – sent a letter to Congress demanding they preserve all renewable-energy tax credits available to state and local government. And solar power is particularly big in Republican Southern states. One-quarter of new capacity was built in Texas. Second place was Florida, another Republican stronghold.

So yeah, challenges for sure, and IFT might not reach it's target of 15% shareholder net growth this year, but in the medium-long term it's still a very strong hold in my view.

Sure - as strong as Spark :P ;

Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 11, 2025, 12:29 PMSure - as strong as Spark :P ;

One word - conflation.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 11, 2025, 12:29 PMSure - as strong as Spark :P ;

He can't help himself.

Soothing words for holders in IFT's March newsletter

https://infratil.com/news/infratil-newsletter-march-2025/

The first quarter of the new calendar year has been marked by uncertainty and volatility across global markets. In recent weeks, equity markets have experienced heightened fluctuations, driven by escalating trade tensions and the introduction of new tariffs. These developments have raised investor concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, leading to significant declines in most major indices. Additionally, investors are closely monitoring policy changes and technological advancements.

Our share price has not been immune to the sell-offs impacting global markets. We also acknowledge that some of the recent share price weakness may reflect broader industry uncertainty around key areas of our portfolio - New Zealand's economic outlook (One NZ), hyperscale demand for AI deployments (CDC), and US renewables (Longroad Energy).

However, in times of heightened uncertainty, quality becomes an important differentiator. Infratil's strategy has always been built on backing high-quality assets, great management teams who are invested in their businesses, and structural tailwinds that drive sustainable, long-term growth.......

.....We have received numerous investor inquiries regarding the outlook for data centre operators, of course given our largest investment, CDC.

We recently announced that we exercised pre-emption rights to acquire an additional 1.58% stake in CDC for ~A$216 million, alongside Future Fund, which is acquiring 10.46%. Importantly, the transaction price of A$13.7 billion (100% equity) was set in an auction process involving only third-parties, reinforcing the strong demand across private markets for this sector and CDC. Based on the transaction price the implied value of Infratil's investment is A$6.6 billion, a 34% premium to the last independent valuation of A$4.9 billion as at 31 December 2024....... etc etc....

Businesss as usual it seems.

Disc. I've added more on recent lows.

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 14, 2025, 07:19 PMSoothing words for holders in IFT's March newsletter

https://infratil.com/news/infratil-newsletter-march-2025/

The first quarter of the new calendar year has been marked by uncertainty and volatility across global markets. In recent weeks, equity markets have experienced heightened fluctuations, driven by escalating trade tensions and the introduction of new tariffs. These developments have raised investor concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, leading to significant declines in most major indices. Additionally, investors are closely monitoring policy changes and technological advancements.

Our share price has not been immune to the sell-offs impacting global markets. We also acknowledge that some of the recent share price weakness may reflect broader industry uncertainty around key areas of our portfolio - New Zealand's economic outlook (One NZ), hyperscale demand for AI deployments (CDC), and US renewables (Longroad Energy).

However, in times of heightened uncertainty, quality becomes an important differentiator. Infratil's strategy has always been built on backing high-quality assets, great management teams who are invested in their businesses, and structural tailwinds that drive sustainable, long-term growth.......

.....We have received numerous investor inquiries regarding the outlook for data centre operators, of course given our largest investment, CDC.

We recently announced that we exercised pre-emption rights to acquire an additional 1.58% stake in CDC for ~A$216 million, alongside Future Fund, which is acquiring 10.46%. Importantly, the transaction price of A$13.7 billion (100% equity) was set in an auction process involving only third-parties, reinforcing the strong demand across private markets for this sector and CDC. Based on the transaction price the implied value of Infratil's investment is A$6.6 billion, a 34% premium to the last independent valuation of A$4.9 billion as at 31 December 2024....... etc etc....

Businesss as usual it seems.

Disc. I've added more on recent lows.

Yes, strong demand equals increased valuation. Business fundamentals look as strong as ever, just global market and uncertainty around some elements of portfolio has weighed down the SP. I've done the same LF - bought more last week. Set and (mostly) forget.

Holders might enjoy reading this.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/inside-sydneys-a17b-supercomputing-operation-co-owned-by-infratil/JZERI4QYLVDNDMMGXQQ644KXME/
Disc: No direct position.  Small indirect position through Kingfish.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 17, 2025, 09:29 AMHolders might enjoy reading this.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/inside-sydneys-a17b-supercomputing-operation-co-owned-by-infratil/JZERI4QYLVDNDMMGXQQ644KXME/
Disc: No direct position.  Small indirect position through Kingfish.


Thanks for posting Beagle. As a long term holder of Infratil I always love listening to Greg talk about his baby. A great story.

Thanks for posting Basil...excellent interview.

IFT's and CDC's Data Centre story is why some of us have been buying more IFT on recent lows ( I appreciate you have exposure via Kingfish.)

IFT 'well positioned' with data centres, undersea cables, mobile data (One NZ) and renewable energy.

ps Morrison's CEO recently buying approximately 277,000  IFT shares..... a further good sign on top of IFT CEO's additional purchases.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/448456/attachment/439708/448456-439708.pdf

Another IFT Director increasing his holding.....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/448845/attachment/440124/448845-440124.pdf

Gosh, a lot of talk on CNBC by all sorts of experts today reviewing this first quarter how sentiment has changed since 1 January.  Many wondering if A.I. and all related services especially data centers, are simply in a bubble?   The Mag 7 has become the Lag 7. Hope they're wrong...got a few of these through my Kingfish stake.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 29, 2025, 06:27 PMGosh, a lot of talk on CNBC by all sorts of experts today reviewing this first quarter how sentiment has changed since 1 January.  Many wondering if A.I. and all related services especially data centers, are simply in a bubble?  The Mag 7 has become the Lag 7. Hope they're wrong...got a few of these through my Kingfish stake.

I believe the AI product Deepseek (China) that does a lot of it's processing on the device rather than using data centre's stream has created the perception that data centre storage could be at capacity and that we could be already overbuilt. It is however in my view just a perception.

Quote from: Cod on Mar 30, 2025, 10:55 AMI believe the AI product Deepseek (China) that does a lot of it's processing on the device rather than using data centre's stream has created the perception that data centre storage could be at capacity and that we could be already overbuilt. It is however in my view just a perception.

See Basil's post #306 above......the video link talks about strong leases, (30 yrs for new builds,) AAA clients with a strategic geographic spread that would seem to provide IFT with short term protection. 

Longer term IFT is well placed to switch its resources into more fertile investments.... if required.

Looking fwd to IFT's next update.

Further to the above post #312, Infratil's valuation of its CDC assets has now been upgraded by $A 2,115 million.

Plus

"The growth forecast underpinning CDC's build capacity to FY2034 remained largely unchanged from December 2024, with the exception of the completion of extensions to two of CDC's data centres in Auckland...."


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449583

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 04, 2025, 09:37 AMFurther to the above post #312, Infratil's valuation of its CDC assets has been upgraded by $A 2,115 million.

Plus

"The growth forecast underpinning CDC's build capacity to FY2034 remained largely unchanged from December 2024, with the exception of the completion of extensions to two of CDC's data centres in Auckland. This increased CDC's operational capacity by a further 16MW to 318MW and continues to demonstrate CDC's strong track record of delivering projects on time and to budget."


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449583

QuoteAs a result of the transaction announcement in February, the primary valuation methodology applied by the independent valuer at 31 March 2025 was adjusted from a Discounted Cash Flow ('DCF') approach to a Historical Transaction approach. After being provided details of the outcome and nature of the sale process conducted by CSC, the valuer confirmed their view that the transaction met all criteria to be considered fair market value and subsequently adopted A$13,701 million as the mid-point of its independent valuation.

Sounds like a really tough negotiation with the valuer. I wonder who paid them?

Ah well, isn't this amazing? They had to change their valuation method to further increase the papervalue of their data centres. That's the way to generate fat management bonusses. Just a shame for the poor sod who will sit at the end of the day on assetts valued for high management bonusses. They will hope the greater fool strategy works in perpetuity. Well, it always does until the bubble bursts.

Wondering whether this trick will pull IFT out of the doldrums? - They passed the cross of death already some months ago.

you missing the big picture here....

data centers on .... MARS...

law  of  diminishing returns.... more data , bigger centers... = law of bigger numbers...

Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 04, 2025, 11:04 AMyou missing the big picture here....

data centers on .... MARS...

law  of  diminishing returns.... more data , bigger centers... = law of bigger numbers...

Interesting point. It certainly would be cold enough there to save costs to cool down the servers - though, the heating costs might be considerable ...

Wondering as well about the signal delays - whats the time for one signal hop to the MARS and back? Maybe we need to slow down some of the transactions. Dr. Google says something like between 6 min to 44 min, depending on how Earth and Mars stand to each other.

But then, given that MARS is clearly the next US state after Canada, Greenland, Panama , Gaza, New Zealand and the moon - it would save them heaps of tariffs, wouldn't it?

They need to remodel their valuation methods and put a rocket under them.

Do Morrison refund the gigantic bonus that comes with this paper revaluation back to the company if the value tanks in the future?

Um... I don't get it.   Wasn't the sales process with market participants so a reasonable basis to estimate Fair Value. 

Crikey.......at a time when we hear of a slowing or peak demand for data centres, this article argues the opposite........claiming many new centres planned in the USA that will be less environmentally sustainable..........

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/03/trump-fossil-fuel-donors-data-centers


"Trump's funders and backers are especially going to benefit from Trump's policies to restrict regulations in the AI sector as part of an attempt to outpace China to become the global leader in the sector. The US is currently home to just more than half the mega data centers in the world. And with Goldman Sachs suggesting $1tn will be spent on AI data centers in the next few years, a lot is up for grabs."

Interesting times.

What does Microsoft know that the small players don't ?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/microsoft-hits-pause-on-data-centers-raising-ai-demand-questions-and-stock-market-concerns-1034548291
One thing that is not in any doubt.  IFT has broken its uptrend and has been in a confirmed downtrend for months.  Who knows where it ends.... watching the TA and waiting as long as it takes for a new uptrend, makes a lot of common sense.

Further to my post #319 above Kiora has posted an update outlining recent difficulties with gas powered electricity powered data centres in Texas.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-attempt-kickstart-gas-fired-140002983.html

Texas is a microcosm of a debate raging across the country over how best to meet rising demand for electricity, driven by the data center boom and the electrification of cars and factories. Data center developers need access to more electricity than current infrastructure can easily provide,....


Seems IFT's investments in CDC and Longroad renewable energy may be 'well positioned' after all.

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 06, 2025, 09:29 AMFurther to my post #319 above Kiora has posted an update outlining recent difficulties with gas powered electricity powered data centres in Texas.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-attempt-kickstart-gas-fired-140002983.html

"Texas is a microcosm of a debate raging across the country over how best to meet rising demand for electricity, driven by the data center boom and the electrification of cars and factories. Data center developers need access to more electricity than current infrastructure can easily provide..." 


Seems IFT's investments in CDC and Longroad renewable energy may be 'well positioned' after all.

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 06, 2025, 09:29 AMSeems IFT's investments in CDC and Longroad renewable energy may be 'well positioned' after all.

...

Who knows, but lets face it - the fundamentals look very expensive (even for whoever believes in the valuations pumping the management fees), and clearly the market disagrees with being well positioned - it looks like more investors try to reposisition themselves away from this investment. The downtrend makes one shudder.

Morrisons CEO adding another $2 mill worth of shares to his collection.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/449722/attachment/441096/449722-441096.pdf

What a bloody rort and I'm not the only one who thinks so., emphasis added.  One last absolutly enormous rort, literally a few days before the bubble values of these tech assets bursts. Have to hand it to Morrisons, they have played Infratil shareholders like a bloody fiddle, (comment from a friend)

Morrison in line for $350m fee bonanza from Infratil
~4 minutes
The bonus follows a huge increase in the valuation of Infratil's stake in datacentre company CDC implied by a transaction announced last month.
Infratil CEO and Morrison partner Jason Boyes.
Infratil's management company Morrison is in line for a fee bonanza following the revaluation of Australia-based datacentre company CDC last Friday.
The NZX-listed company's investor relations manager Mark Flesher said although the fees were still being finalised the likely incentive fee due to Morrison for CDC would probably be about $350-$360 million for the year to March.
The fee, allowed for in Morrison's management contract, relates to a huge uplift in CDC's valuation in a share transaction involving CDC's existing shareholders.
On February 18 Infratil said it had bought a further 1.58% of CDC for A$216m from Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation, taking its stake to 49.75%.
Australia's Future Fund also bought 10.46% from Commonwealth, although its purchase price was not disclosed.
The transaction, due to close in the second half of calendar 2025, valued CDC at A$13.7 billion, implying a valuation for Infratil's stake of A$6.6b ($7.1b).
The valuation represents a $2.7b increase in the value of Infratil's CDC holding since March 2024.
CDC owns datacentres in Auckland, Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney.
'Enormous' fee
Independent analyst and former stockbroker Tony Morgan said the level of the fee was "ludicrous".
"These guys execute really well, it's just the number's got a bit big," he said.
"It must be the biggest single management fee ever paid. It's enormous."
Under Infratil's management contract with Morrison, the Wellington-based investment firm is entitled to 20% of the valuation uplift on CDC above a 12% hurdle rate of return, after adjusting for capital expenditure and distributions.
The highest previous incentive fee on CDC was $140.2m in 2021.
In the year to March 2024 CDC had revenue of $412.3m and net profit of $201.9m. Its net assets at balance date were $2.58b.
Previous valuations of CDC were estimated using discounted cashflow analysis, but the February transaction allowed a reassessment under a fair market value approach.
The fee due to Morrison is higher than the amount Infratil spent on its additional CDC shares.
Flesher told NBR Infratil had already outlined a $110.2m performance fee accrual for CDC at the half year, "so this would result in an increase of $240-$250m for the second half".
Announcing the deal at the time, Infratil chief executive Jason Boyes said CDC was one of the company's most successful investments.
"This increased ownership reinforces our commitment to investing in 'ideas that matter'," he said.
"It reflects our strong conviction in CDC and the powerful tailwinds driving digital infrastructure."

Lambton Quay chatter is thT  Infratil / Morrisons get sucked into the AI hype with their data centres and its not going to end that well for shareholders

Quote from: Basil on Apr 08, 2025, 11:09 AMWhat a bloody rort and I'm not the only one who thinks so., emphasis added.  One last absolutly enormous rort, literally a few days before the bubble values of these tech assets bursts. Have to hand it to Morrisons, they have played Infratil shareholders like a bloody fiddle, (comment from a friend)

Morrison in line for $350m fee bonanza from Infratil
~4 minutes
The bonus follows a huge increase in the valuation of Infratil's stake in datacentre company CDC implied by a transaction announced last month.
Infratil CEO and Morrison partner Jason Boyes.
Infratil's management company Morrison is in line for a fee bonanza following the revaluation of Australia-based datacentre company CDC last Friday.
The NZX-listed company's investor relations manager Mark Flesher said although the fees were still being finalised the likely incentive fee due to Morrison for CDC would probably be about $350-$360 million for the year to March.
The fee, allowed for in Morrison's management contract, relates to a huge uplift in CDC's valuation in a share transaction involving CDC's existing shareholders.
On February 18 Infratil said it had bought a further 1.58% of CDC for A$216m from Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation, taking its stake to 49.75%.
Australia's Future Fund also bought 10.46% from Commonwealth, although its purchase price was not disclosed.
The transaction, due to close in the second half of calendar 2025, valued CDC at A$13.7 billion, implying a valuation for Infratil's stake of A$6.6b ($7.1b).
The valuation represents a $2.7b increase in the value of Infratil's CDC holding since March 2024.
CDC owns datacentres in Auckland, Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney.
'Enormous' fee
Independent analyst and former stockbroker Tony Morgan said the level of the fee was "ludicrous".
"These guys execute really well, it's just the number's got a bit big," he said.
"It must be the biggest single management fee ever paid. It's enormous."
Under Infratil's management contract with Morrison, the Wellington-based investment firm is entitled to 20% of the valuation uplift on CDC above a 12% hurdle rate of return, after adjusting for capital expenditure and distributions.
The highest previous incentive fee on CDC was $140.2m in 2021.
In the year to March 2024 CDC had revenue of $412.3m and net profit of $201.9m. Its net assets at balance date were $2.58b.
Previous valuations of CDC were estimated using discounted cashflow analysis, but the February transaction allowed a reassessment under a fair market value approach.
The fee due to Morrison is higher than the amount Infratil spent on its additional CDC shares.
Flesher told NBR Infratil had already outlined a $110.2m performance fee accrual for CDC at the half year, "so this would result in an increase of $240-$250m for the second half".
Announcing the deal at the time, Infratil chief executive Jason Boyes said CDC was one of the company's most successful investments.
"This increased ownership reinforces our commitment to investing in 'ideas that matter'," he said.
"It reflects our strong conviction in CDC and the powerful tailwinds driving digital infrastructure."

This is definitely over the top and does not reflect what Infratil shareholders experiencing (with share price tanking). The incentive calculation methodology should be based on TSR outperformance not arbitrary valuations in my view.

IFT & CDC's new Melbourne data centre open day presentation.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/449879/attachment/441316/449879-441316.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 09, 2025, 01:04 PMIFT & CDC's new Melbourne data centre open day presentation.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/449879/attachment/441316/449879-441316.pdf

Well, I guess given the $$$ they charge their shareholders in bonus payments one certainly should expect a nice presentation.

What do we make of all the inside buying?

Good question.

I guess it is clearly a signal they want the world to see.

But no matter, whether they personally believe the share is cheap - the real quesiton is - do you think they can see the future better than other mortals?

Do they know both Trumps and Xi's coming moves in the ongoing tradewar, and do they understand the impact of each of these moves on the services the companies in their fund are offering?

Do they know whether the altright will prevail in the US with "drill baby drill" and making the life difficult for renewables, or whether this nightmare will be over in a handful of months or years?

Do they really know the need for datacentres over the next say 5 years? Do they know whether AI will rocket up or just end as the next big flop?

If you think they have the answers to all these questions, than it might be a buy signal.

If you think however, that they are mortals (who can't predict the future) as well, then I would interpret the recent buying as an attempt to stop the downtrend. Please, please Mr. Market - buy IFT, its sooo cheap ... even insiders do buy.

Do you consider the volume of buying by IFT directors insignificant?
Morrison yes, huge monies going there and they can keep it primed but if you look at turnover the inside buys are not enough to do more than daily movements.

Go to a roadshow. Their full of beans and looking well ahead, looking for what's next, which is what they do well.
Still have the airport, other assets.

Quote from: Dolcile on Apr 14, 2025, 11:10 AMWhat do we make of all the inside buying?

Maybe that Directors and Morrison's see real value....... up to $15.00 value on 'special' at the moment.

Of course some posters here won't agree.....so it's a game of who should know best.

Has anyone considered whether having data centers built outside of the USA could currently be an advantage? Tariff and component for starters.

Hard to know Mike, the situation is so fluid.  Maybe services could come in for tariffs too?  Who knows what the petulant child in the US will do next?

Craigs reckon IFT trading under fair value NTA.  KFL trading at $1.22, current NTA by my estimate $1. 332....bought a few more KFL today and they have plenty of IFT.  Other than that, and a few more SMI and Tower, happy to remain with a large cash allocation acting as a shock absorber in the portfolio soaking up some of the extreme bumps in the journey. 2025 could be quite a challenging year in the markets.

Quote from: mike2023 on Apr 14, 2025, 03:01 PMHas anyone considered whether having data centers built outside of the USA could currently be an advantage? Tariff and component for starters.

'Data sovereignty' has been a concern for some time.

Think about it.......the USA is rapidly losing its 'trusted nation' status....  many nations are concerned about having their sensitive data stored/transfered outside their own borders.

And its not just recent USA fears, recently we witnessed Chinese 'research' and warships hovering above submerged data cables in the
Tasman Sea. A Russian tanker that dragged its anchor in Baltic Sea 'arrested' in Germany, British warships shadowing Russian vessels in Nth Sea  etc.

So yes trusted secure data/cloud storage or data sovereignty within your own borders is what makes sense. 

CDC is in the box seat in this respect in the South Pacific.

Have you watched the CDC interview link that Basil posted a few weeks ago? (Post # 306 above.)

Quote from: Basil on Apr 14, 2025, 03:37 PMHard to know Mike, the situation is so fluid.  Maybe services could come in for tariffs too?  Who knows what the petulant child in the US will do next?

From p12 "Christchurch Star" April 10th 2025
Zome vould zay eet eez "Chinese Communist Party Propaganda" vrom "He Ying" CCP Consul General in Christchurch
but....

"The US has long reaped enormous benefits from global trade.  The "so-called" 'reciprocal tariffs' have left countries worldwide confused and drawn widespread criticism from experts and media, who argue that the methodology behind these tariffs is baseless and 'completely fabricated'.    Differences in tariffs among nations stem fundamentally from comparative advantages across industries in different countries.  While the US runs a trade deficit in goods, it achieved a $300 billion trade surplus in services across 2024."

I vonder how long eet vill take trading countries outside of ze USA to put a tariff on zhat 'zervice zector'?

RB

Quote from: mike2023 on Apr 14, 2025, 11:59 AMDo you consider the volume of buying by IFT directors insignificant?
Morrison yes, huge monies going there and they can keep it primed but if you look at turnover the inside buys are not enough to do more than daily movements.

Go to a roadshow. Their full of beans and looking well ahead, looking for what's next, which is what they do well.
Still have the airport, other assets.

As indicated - it does not matter whether the directors are convinvced or just virtue signalling. Fact is, they don't know more about how long the world will get stuck in the current crisis than anybody else.

And make no mistake - Trump is bad for the economy, for travel and still worse for renewable energy. Obviously he has little to do with anything related to intelligence, but the jury is as well still out on the development of AI and their real need of additional datacenters.

Buying into IFT at this stage is speculating on a stock which is fundamentally anyway already pretty dear (i.e. huge growth assumptiuons baked in). Is it sensible? - well, you be the judge.

Been several times on their roadshows. Yes, they are run professionally, but if you want to know how much professionals know about the future, than just check how often our star economists and analysts are right with their future predictions. No point in awestruck listening to them, get a statistically relevant long term track record of their predictions. Here is a hint: If we are talking yes/no decisons, they are roughly as good as flipping a coin. Problem is just, reality is multidimensional and much more complex than that.

Ah yes, and just looking at IFT - it would not be the first time for them to get it wrong either. How much money did they make with NZ Bus? Remember the European airports they bought for millions and sold for a Dollar? - and re Wellington airport - sure, it is important infrastructure, but not sure I expect any outstanding returns from that investment. They don't even have the bonus of Auckland which offers a real estate gamble.

But don't get me wrong - I am not saying that they will turn belly up. They won't. They are just an investment fund, and at the end their shareprice will reflect the time value of these investments. I am just saying that they are at the moment priced for perfection ... and not sure I expect the (for their industries relevant) near and midtem political and economical futures matching this expectation, and I am saying that nobody currently can foresee how AI and its data centre need will develop.

Sure - you can get predictions two on a dime, but predictions are cheap. What you need would be predictions which turn true, but don't we all?

Anyway - your money, your luck. If you believe in the divine capabilities of the directors, go for it ... and hey - you always might be lucky.

More news from IFT & CDC in this update......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450174

 
 CDC is entering a period of significant opportunity. It expects its earnings to double over the next two years, with approximately 80% of that growth already contracted. The business is on track to meet its FY25 EBITDAF guidance of A$320-A$330 million and formal FY26 guidance will be provided at Infratil's May results.
 Several trends underpin this positive outlook:
 • Long-term customer contracts with low risk - WALE of ~30 years (including options).
 • Strong capital base, backed by Infratil, Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation (CSC) and Australia's sovereign wealth fund, the Future Fund, plus low-cost debt sourced from diversified global markets.
 • Rising operational leverage as campuses scale and systems improve.

This is interesting.....

One of the most important developments affecting the global AI landscape is the "AI Diffusion Framework" introduced in the final days of the Biden Administration in the U.S. This framework restricts the export of the most advanced AI chipsets and supporting technology like NVIDIA's GPUs to certain countries.

 Under the Framework, the world has been divided into three tiers.

 • Tier 1 (unrestricted): Only five countries in the Asia-Pacific region; Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are allowed to receive unrestricted shipments of advanced U.S. AI hardware.
 • Tier 2 (limited access): Includes Singapore, India, Malaysia, and others; where each country's capacity is limited under current rules.
 • Tier 3 (no access): Includes China and other restricted jurisdictions.

 This means the global supply of AI hardware now has a much narrower set of countries it can be deployed in. Among them, Australia (& NZ) stands out due to:
 • Available land and power: Compared to Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea, Australia has fewer geographic constraints and more reliable transmission infrastructure.
 • Stable and growing renewable energy mix: Australia is already at ~40% renewables and doesn't face the rolling blackouts or capacity crises affecting other markets, with data centres account for only ~1% of the grid consumption.
 • Political and regulatory certainty: As a Five Eyes partner with strong cybersecurity and privacy frameworks, Australia gives global tech companies confidence that their investments are safe.


Of course as BP repeatedly claims.... "no one can predict the future,"........however it's relatively easy to see where the wind is blowing and where resulting investment tail winds align...... you just need to be open minded..... and patient.

CEO Jason Boyes  still buying IFT shares..... he now holds over 2 mill ...... https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450280

IFT might actually do what I thought it might do and return to mid line, swipe me thats a first.
IFT_2025-05-02_08-13-05~2.png

This from Kiora on the other channel.......(IFT well positioned IMO.)

"Capacity Constraints

Amazon: cloud slowdown disappoints investors

"Slowdown in cloud growth
But while the general public knows Amazon as an e-commerce giant, investors are mainly focused on its cloud division, AWS (Amazon Web Services). This is because it accounts for most of the company's profitability and is also where growth is strongest. And it is this point that has disappointed investors: AWS's growth slowed in the last quarter. The division's revenue grew by 17%, compared with 19% in the Q4 2024. Management attributes this slowdown in growth to capacity constraints."

"it contrasts with the results published by Microsoft on Wednesday evening. The Redmond-based company saw growth in its cloud division (Azure) accelerate again in the first quarter, to +35% year-on-year.

However, while AWS accounted for only 19% of revenue in the first quarter, 63% of Amazon's operating profit came from this division."

Great to see IFT SP climbing again. Those who purchased or topped up during the recent lows will be smiling.

Quote from: Left Field on May 05, 2025, 12:20 PMThis from Kiora on the other channel.......(IFT well positioned IMO.)

"Capacity Constraints

Amazon: cloud slowdown disappoints investors

"Slowdown in cloud growth
But while the general public knows Amazon as an e-commerce giant, investors are mainly focused on its cloud division, AWS (Amazon Web Services). This is because it accounts for most of the company's profitability and is also where growth is strongest. And it is this point that has disappointed investors: AWS's growth slowed in the last quarter. The division's revenue grew by 17%, compared with 19% in the Q4 2024. Management attributes this slowdown in growth to capacity constraints."

"it contrasts with the results published by Microsoft on Wednesday evening. The Redmond-based company saw growth in its cloud division (Azure) accelerate again in the first quarter, to +35% year-on-year.

However, while AWS accounted for only 19% of revenue in the first quarter, 63% of Amazon's operating profit came from this division."

Great to see IFT SP climbing again. Those who purchased or topped up during the recent lows will be smiling.

Well, good luck with that. Sure - it is possible that the SP breaks at some stage through this big fat red line (MA200) still hovering above the SP, but it is by no means sure.

And lets face it - IFT is quite dear on fundamentals (pathetic PE), and they have a bonusstrategy which is quite unaligned with typical economic setback times (a proper bear every 7 to 10 years or so). Which means directors can cream it 6 to 9 years (in this example) just by taking more and more risks - and when the big reset comes, then its just too bad for shareholders, isn't it? 

Better wait with counting your chicken ...

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 05, 2025, 03:10 PMWell, good luck with that. Sure - it is possible that the SP breaks at some stage through this big fat red line (MA200) still hovering above the SP, but it is by no means sure.

And lets face it - IFT is quite dear on fundamentals (pathetic PE), and they have a bonusstrategy which is quite unaligned with typical economic setback times (a proper bear every 7 to 10 years or so). Which means directors can cream it 6 to 9 years (in this example) just by taking more and more risks - and when the big reset comes, then its just too bad for shareholders, isn't it? 

Better wait with counting your chicken ...

Interesting to compare HGH and IFT eh BP. 

Of course as BP repeatedly claims.... "no one can predict the future,"........however IMO it's relatively easy to see where the wind is blowing and where resulting investment tail winds align...... you just need to be open minded..... and patient.

Two news releases bode well for IFT and possibly explain recent upwards SP movement

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/451129

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02943491-2A1594605&v=7bc42bd11d853ed5e8c28f2ffcd6a069ee5cd6b4

The SP surge continues. Me thinks that the death of IFT may have been exaggerated...

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 07, 2025, 10:06 AMThe SP surge continues. Me thinks that the death of IFT may have been exaggerated...

Welcome back LL.

Death of data centres also a tab exaggerated methinks.

Quote from: Left Field on May 07, 2025, 04:12 PMWelcome back LL.

Death of data centres also a tab exaggerated methinks.

Cheers. Been in Bali for a bit of R&R. Back in the mix now. Seems like non-holders still predicting IFT's demise whilst long term-holders like you and I know that there's always going to be the odd bump in the road, but that IFT is still one of the safest - if not the safest - stocks on the exchange.  ;D

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 07, 2025, 10:06 AMThe SP surge continues. Me thinks that the death of IFT may have been exaggerated...

Quote from: Left Field on May 07, 2025, 04:12 PMWelcome back LL.

Death of data centres also a tab exaggerated methinks.

Oh dear - looks sounds like you guys/gals moving in rather morbid bubbles?

Just wondering who talked about the "death of IFT" or "death of datacentres"? Did you make this up yourself?

Quite unhealthy fantasies to develop.

The only thing I remember is people mentioning on this thread that IFT is currently quite dear on its fundamentals, and that the demand for datacenters might rise slower as some of the IFT fans seem to hope for.

Does not sound like "death" to me, but sure, for anybody who mortgaged the house to buy IFT shares, the stakes might be rather high. Hope that's not you gals. Still - no reason to jump out of the window, I hope.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 07, 2025, 04:31 PMCheers. Been in Bali for a bit of R&R. Back in the mix now. Seems like non-holders still predicting IFT's demise whilst long term-holders like you and I know that there's always going to be the odd bump in the road, but that IFT is still one of the safest - if not the safest - stocks on the exchange.  ;D

Clearly - coming back from Bali you would know about "bumps in the road". Jalan rusak is an important road sign over there :); Sounds though, your stay didn't help to sharpen your appreciation of risks. Quite dangerous lack, considering the traffic they feature (though yes, they have so many vehicles, that moving in slow queues maybe is lower risk). Still - glad you survived the traffic and water and food (Bali-belly). Welcomke back!

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 07, 2025, 04:42 PMOh dear - looks sounds like you guys/gals moving in rather morbid bubbles?

Just wondering who talked about the "death of IFT" or "death of datacentres"? Did you make this up yourself?

Quite unhealthy fantasies to develop.

The only thing I remember is people mentioning on this thread that IFT is currently quite dear on its fundamentals, and that the demand for datacenters might rise slower as some of the IFT fans seem to hope for.

Does not sound like "death" to me, but sure, for anybody who mortgaged the house to buy IFT shares, the stakes might be rather high. Hope that's not you gals. Still - no reason to jump out of the window, I hope.

Sigh. Nothing changes. More revisionist nonsense. Look at your postings on this site and the other for...I don't know... years. You've not exactly been a cheerleader. And the latest crumb of negativity around datacentres has been seized upon as if it's a "I told you so" moment. Which it clearly isn't. Still keep banging the drum BP - a stopped clock is right twice a day I guess.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 07, 2025, 04:53 PMSigh. Nothing changes. More revisionist nonsense. Look at your postings on this site and the other for...I don't know... years. You've not exactly been a cheerleader. And the latest crumb of negativity around datacentres has been seized upon as if it's a "I told you so" moment. Which it clearly isn't. Still keep banging the drum BP - a stopped clock is right twice a day I guess.

Oh dear - maybe your trip to Bali was not as relaxing as you hoped? Not sure, what causes your grumpyness - Bali Belly after all?

Know the story of the turkey? He got fed day after day from a friendly human being, very concerned about his well being. After 900 days the turkey clearly knew that humans are nothing but friendly providers and given his long experience he was safely able to predict many more good days. Ah yes, and then Thanks Giving day approached.  :P

BTW: In case you need a good book to read for your next Bali-Belly: "The Black Swan" written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an interesting read for economists, statisticians as well as for anybody who thinks that a linear extrapolation of some random datatrend is all they need to predict the future.

Quote from: Left Field on May 06, 2025, 03:04 PMInteresting to compare HGH and IFT eh BP. 

Of course as BP repeatedly claims.... "no one can predict the future,"........however IMO it's relatively easy to see where the wind is blowing and where resulting investment tail winds align...... you just need to be open minded..... and patient.

Speaking of grumpiness BP..... is there any truth in the rumour that you are invested in HGH? Surely not?

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 07, 2025, 05:20 PMOh dear - maybe your trip to Bali was not as relaxing as you hoped? Not sure, what causes your grumpyness - Bali Belly after all?

Know the story of the turkey? He got fed day after day from a friendly human being, very concerned about his well being. After 900 days the turkey clearly knew that humans are nothing but friendly providers and given his long experience he was safely able to predict many more good days. Ah yes, and then Thanks Giving day approached.  :P

BTW: In case you need a good book to read for your next Bali-Belly: "The Black Swan" written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an interesting read for economists, statisticians as well as for anybody who thinks that a linear extrapolation of some random datatrend is all they need to predict the future.

I'm very relaxed. How about you?

Anyone can construct an argument NOT to invest in any stock, on any exchange. Any negative event - any bump in the road- can fuel the indecision until it becomes paralysis. Best for those who sensitive to all the black swan theories and gloom and doom, to stick to funds. I do both.
IFT has, and continues to be, my best investment in the last ten years. My average price is laughably low and I take profits from time to time, when things surge a bit too much. Other times I buy. I'm already a $1 up on my purchases from a month ago. I would rather listen to the predictions and concerns of those that actively buy stocks, including, IFT, than non-holders who perennially snipe from the outside, even when history has proved them patently wrong.

Quote from: Left Field on May 07, 2025, 05:41 PMSpeaking of grumpiness BP..... is there any truth in the rumour that you are invested in HGH?

I take little satisfaction in saying that I was one of the very few on this site that warned that Jeff's foray into Australia would end in tears. Despite all the arguments around low PE compared to peers etc etc, the house of cards did in fact fall. Some learnt quick and got out. Others didn't. I wonder who they were?

Matt Peek, a pretty smart guy, used to work alongside Julian Cook at UBS back in the day.  He had this to say about Infratil in their recent quarterly newsletter.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450556/attachment/442132/450556-442132.pdf
I note they hold a 13.6% position and added a bit during weakness in the quarter.

Disc: No direct position in Infratil but hold quite a few KFL shares and the new KFLWI warrants. 

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 07, 2025, 05:45 PMI'm very relaxed. How about you?

Anyone can construct an argument NOT to invest in any stock, on any exchange. Any negative event - any bump in the road- can fuel the indecision until it becomes paralysis. Best for those who sensitive to all the black swan theories and gloom and doom, to stick to funds. I do both.
IFT has, and continues to be, my best investment in the last ten years. My average price is laughably low and I take profits from time to time, when things surge a bit too much. Other times I buy. I'm already a $1 up on my purchases from a month ago. I would rather listen to the predictions and concerns of those that actively buy stocks, including, IFT, than non-holders who perennially snipe from the outside, even when history has proved them patently wrong.

Quite pathetic post.

So, whats your argument? I don't hold IFT (which is true) and therefore I am not qualified to point out risks? Hmm.

Apart from this being obviously absolute non-sense, funny you see yourself entitled to swamp threads of shares you don't hold with negative comments (check out e.g. WHS ...). Not that I disagree with these comments, but I tend to assess arguments on their merit rather than on the holder status of their poster.

But if we ignore for a moment your beating up of the messenger - do you have any credible investment thesis for IFT? Sure, you tell us that it worked well for you the last 10 years (and yes, the SP did rise during that time with an average CAGR of 14% - Pretty good). As we all know, what went well for 10 years will go well for eternity (well - NO).

If there is anything investors can learn from history, then it is that in the longterm ernings growth and SP growth align.

Earnings growth over the last 10 years (I got that averaged from Excel, including their one off speculation wins), was negative 8.5%. Ouch.

Well, maybe I am just a coward, but I prefer to watch the realignment of EPS and SP growth for this fund from the sidelines, but each to their own.

Good luck, and I hope your day goes well enough that you will be able to find in future sensible investment cases and arguments instead of wasting your and our time in rubbishing and attacking other posters who happen to disagree with the linear extrapolations you seem to trust on as investment case for your beloved stocks.

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 08, 2025, 11:42 AMQuite pathetic post.

So, whats your argument? I don't hold IFT (which is true) and therefore I am not qualified to point out risks? Hmm.

Apart from this being obviously absolute non-sense, funny you see yourself entitled to swamp threads of shares you don't hold with negative comments (check out e.g. WHS ...). Not that I disagree with these comments, but I tend to assess arguments on their merit rather than on the holder status of their poster.

But if we ignore for a moment your beating up of the messenger - do you have any credible investment thesis for IFT? Sure, you tell us that it worked well for you the last 10 years (and yes, the SP did rise during that time with an average CAGR of 14% - Pretty good). As we all know, what went well for 10 years will go well for eternity (well - NO).

If there is anything investors can learn from history, then it is that in the longterm ernings growth and SP growth align.

Earnings growth over the last 10 years (I got that averaged from Excel, including their one off speculation wins), was negative 8.5%. Ouch.

Well, maybe I am just a coward, but I prefer to watch the realignment of EPS and SP growth for this fund from the sidelines, but each to their own.

Good luck, and I hope your day goes well enough that you will be able to find in future sensible investment cases and arguments instead of wasting your and our time in rubbishing and attacking other posters who happen to disagree with the linear extrapolations you seem to trust on as investment case for your beloved stocks.

My point is that you are obviously blindsided when it comes to share trading. You have fixed views and anyone who decided to invest in a stock that you don't, you feel obligated to tell them that they are wrong - regardless of whether they are or not. I don't need to go over the long term growth of IFT again, the graph speaks volume. I (and others) have presented arguments for IFT, time and again, so you obviously haven't been keeping up. Maybe it is as simple as the fact that you have non-buyers regret and want to convince yourself (and others) that IFT will eventually go into decline. Well, good luck with that.

I post on shares that I have maybe held at some point - HGH, WHS etc - as cautionary tales for others, but not to the same degree as yourself, who spends hours telling the world what shares you don't invest in (and perhaps never have) and why, and deriding those that do. I guess if you've got nothing better to do, then it fills in the time. or maybe it's just ego. Either way it's tiresome. Rein it in would be be my advice.

I was looking at the latest KFL Nav report and noted that IFT is Kingfishers second biggest stock, behind F&P. The other top three are Mainfreight, Summerset and Auckland Airport. All up these top five "quality growing NZ companies" (their words) account for 62% of their portfolio. All of these companies have high PE's, and low yield, and therefore would seem to be unattractive using those metrics alone . And yet a team of professional fund managers, with a pretty good track record, have them as the backbone of their investments. I find that interesting and re-assuring.

SUM PE 9.5 for FY25 and 8.5 for FY26  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SUMMERSET-GROUP-HOLDINGS--10089438/
MFT 23 and 21 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/finances/

I was quite impressed with Matt Peek at last year's annual meeting.  Wish he had of followed through on my suggestion of buying TRA @ $4 at the time for his fund though, (up ~ 50% since then).  Fortunately, I have a truckload of TRA already so it doesn't really matter.

I hold KFL for the diversification it offers and sometimes like today, it trades on a pretty decent discount to NTA, with NTA up 7 cents in the last week but share price only up 2 cents.  Then there's the warrants which I often find attractive. 

IFT have been one of their most successful holdings over the years.  I have no idea which way from here for IFT but I do understand holders feeling encouraged seeing management write sizeable cheques to top up their holdings.

Quote from: Basil on May 08, 2025, 02:31 PMSUM PE 9.5 for FY25 and 8.5 for FY26  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SUMMERSET-GROUP-HOLDINGS--10089438/
MFT 23 and 21 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/finances/

I was quite impressed with Matt Peek at last year's annual meeting.  Wish he had of followed through on my suggestion of buying TRA @ $4 at the time for his fund though, (up ~ 50% since then).  Fortunately, I have a truckload of TRA already so it doesn't really matter.

I hold KFL for the diversification it offers and sometimes like today, it trades on a pretty decent discount to NTA, with NTA up 7 cents in the last week but share price only up 2 cents.  Then there's the warrants which I often find attractive. 

IFT have been one of their most successful holdings over the years.  I have no idea which way from here for IFT but I do understand holders feeling encouraged seeing management write sizeable cheques to top up their holdings.

FPH PE:117
AIA PE:165

Many of our best companies trade on very high PE's and low yield. As for Apple, Tesla, Amazon etc, well don't get me started. It's all about prospects for growth. IFT have done phenomenally well in the past ten years, the odd blip notwithstanding. The management fees are an issue, but that aside their acquisitions and in some cases, sales, have yielded huge returns. Their move into renewables and data-centres has been prescient. There's a huge gain on sale in either area should they decide to divest and move into other areas. The recent divestment of Manawa tops up a considerable warchest. In other words, there's a good runway ahead for further expansion of the business.
 The Sp went backwards last year, due mainly to the Trump effect, but hopefully they'll get back to their 15% yearly SP growth. The SP is up about $1.50 from the start of the year, so the blip has been largely corrected. Onwards and upwards from here?

I prefer to look at forward PE's because the market is always forward looking.  Average analyst forecasts
AIA FY25 PE is 35.9 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AUCKLAND-INTERNATIONAL-AI-16195084/finances/
and FPH 49.4 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCARE--6492630/
Very high metrics for those two, agreed. but not stratospheric.  Whether those metrics are warranted from the growth rate of each company ?, I am happy to leave to Matt Peek's judgement.
Agree on Tesla, it sometimes has many of the makings of a cult stock where zealots will claim fundamental's don't matter.
IFT up 27% from recent lows so anyone who had the courage to jump in back in the very low $9's has every right to feel pretty content with themselves but as to where too from here ? Honestly, I wouldn't have a clue.

In the current market - NZ and global - I think anyone could be forgiven for saying "I haven't got a clue."
 No company is immune to a general downturn or a left-field event. Diversification is, and always was, key. Either through funds - I hold a bit in all three Fisher funds - KFL, MLN and BRM - or through safe(ish) infrastructure / utility stocks, like IFT and Spark (ahem). I'm not so focussed on yield per se,  but also hold or have held TRA and HLG, which have done well even in difficult times. "Fun" stocks like Pacific Edge haven't been much fun of late, but I am keeping the faith (just).
 

Yeap, LL, its been a very tough start to 2025 for just about everyone I reckon.

It is possible that perceptions of IFT's current P/E as 'excessive' are over-stated.

I expect that most investors buying IFT in recent times from $10 upwards (Including the CEO,) are expecting P/E figures to improve as perceptions of IFT shift from being an 'infrastructure' investment to more of a ' utilities/tech' investment.

P/E is a dark art and on a comparable P/E basis IFT is relatively unique, so I am making no projections.  However the following P/E comparisons (E&OE) are interesting and just maybe they indicate that IFT's current P/E is actually conservative???

IFT trading on a current P/E of 18.4
MSFT P/E 32.88
AMZN P/E 34.4 (arguably an on-line retailer - however, AWS (web services) account for 63% of AMZN's operating profits.)
FPH P/E 117.4
GTK P/E 128.9 (Was seen as utilities infrastructure but increasingly SAAS)


(Disc - hold IFT, GTK & FPH.)

Some  points from IFT's May newsletter.

Macquarie Australia Conference

Infratil was pleased to participate in the Macquarie Australia Conference in Sydney last week - one of the largest institutional investor events in the Southern Hemisphere. Over two days, we met with more than 30 global and Australasian investors across one-on-one and group meetings and participated in a fireside chat presentation featuring CEO Jason Boyes and CDC CEO Greg Boorer to over 100 attendees.

   Key themes from the session were:
   
- In the one to two-year horizon, CDC's plan execution is central. CDC is expecting to double earnings over the next two years with ~80% (average) of forecast revenue growth already contracted, supporting progress towards Infratil's 11–15% 10-year TSR target.
   
- In the two to five-year horizon, Infratil's base of core cash-generating assets - including One NZ, Wellington Airport, and RHCNZ - are expected to deliver high single-digit returns in aggregate, helping fund reinvestment into high-growth platforms.

- Over the longer term, platforms like Gurīn Energy, Galileo, and Kao Data offer the potential to deliver returns above our target - particularly as AI, digital sovereignty, and the energy transition continue to gather momentum. Gurīn's receipt in September 2024 of a conditional licence from Singapore's Energy Market Authority for Project Vanda was highlighted as a key milestone.

Quote from: Left Field on May 16, 2025, 11:36 AMSome  points from IFT's May newsletter.

Macquarie Australia Conference

Infratil was pleased to participate in the Macquarie Australia Conference in Sydney last week - one of the largest institutional investor events in the Southern Hemisphere. Over two days, we met with more than 30 global and Australasian investors across one-on-one and group meetings and participated in a fireside chat presentation featuring CEO Jason Boyes and CDC CEO Greg Boorer to over 100 attendees.

   Key themes from the session were:
   
- In the one to two-year horizon, CDC's plan execution is central. CDC is expecting to double earnings over the next two years with ~80% (average) of forecast revenue growth already contracted, supporting progress towards Infratil's 11–15% 10-year TSR target.
   
- In the two to five-year horizon, Infratil's base of core cash-generating assets - including One NZ, Wellington Airport, and RHCNZ - are expected to deliver high single-digit returns in aggregate, helping fund reinvestment into high-growth platforms.

- Over the longer term, platforms like Gurīn Energy, Galileo, and Kao Data offer the potential to deliver returns above our target - particularly as AI, digital sovereignty, and the energy transition continue to gather momentum. Gurīn's receipt in September 2024 of a conditional licence from Singapore's Energy Market Authority for Project Vanda was highlighted as a key milestone.

The CDC numbers are looking particularly good.
Cash generating assets also returning good numbers
$180m coming IFT's way from the Manawa divestment.

Back to sleep...

Round trip completed - Earnings report next event.
IFT_2025-05-16_12-27-05~2.png

Solid  result as expected......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452356

Infratil today announced a strong full-year proportionate operational EBITDAF of $986 million, towards the upper end of guidance of $960–$1,000 million.
 
 Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said the result reflects strong operating earnings growth over the year of $986 million (8.6%), driven by growing contributions from CDC Data Centres, One NZ, Wellington Airport and RetireAustralia.
 
 The year-on-year uplift also captures the benefit of a full 12-month contribution from One NZ, following Infratil's acquisition of the remaining 49.95% stake in June 2024.......

....FY2025 Guidance
 
 FY2025 Proportionate Operational EBITDAF guidance has been set at $1,000-$1,050 million, reflecting the scaling of the operating assets at key portfolio companies. 

EBITDAF looking good? LOL.

Solid loss for the year of 30.5 cents per share. Add to that 20.5 cents per share dividend (what a return for a $11+ share?), and this is an amazing example for the greater fool theory at work.

Given the known fundamentals can't I find a formula turning this share into a buy. Wondering whether the market feels similar - is this maybe the reason the share is in a downtrend?

Anyway - good luck to holders ... Management is clearly great in finding creative valuers to assess their ventures. Hope the subsequent success fees to management pay off.

The costs included fees payable to management company Morrison of $456.2m, up from $214.6m a year earlier.

How is that even legal ?  Talk about being milked !  Mr Market is not happy.

RNZ article echoes the changes outlined in this weeks Annual Report......

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/562468/infratil-eyes-sale-of-1b-in-assets-as-it-targets-stronger-growth

(BTW more useful comments on the other channel.)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/telecommunications/morrison-pockets-456m-in-fees-as-infratil-makes-net-loss-of-2613m/KZ5IMZ5PGFFUDFORNA3IYSO374/
Morrison pockets $456m in fees as Infratil makes net loss of $261.3m Paywalled.
What a bloody disgrace. 

Here's one for Basil and others struggling to understand and value the Morrison's/IFT relationship.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JVw0YROETU

In addition,  posts #4331 and #4339 on the other channel's IFT thread provide further considerations that  Basils above post seems to have missed.

All the above probably won't change any firmly held views such as post #372, but an open mind will find much to learn.

Interestingly, the independent valuations for almost every business under management are up compared to 12 months ago, yet the share price is lower. There appears to be a significant disconnect between the share price and the reported NTA...

It's clearly in Morrison's best interest for these valuations to be higher, the significant market disconnect remains concerning?

On a positive note, Jason Boyes has recently purchased a significant amount of stock on market and holds a substantial stake.

Many thanks to Santiago from the other channel for his summary of the recent Wellington IFT investors presentation.

"Main points that resonated :

- the 20b market cap goal in 5-7 years is a focus. 15% annual returns over 10 years is how they think about investments. They have a record of beating that.

- CDC is a massive investment and was presented as extremely compelling. Will be growing loads, and any fears about data centres being white elephants in 10 years was put to bed. They have long term contracts with high grade customers who have a growing need for data storage and computing power. The scale of construction is incredible. Demand is not going away. CDC will be huge. I don't think the market fully realises the scale. The board and management do, and they keep buying their own shares.

- Longroad is not as exposed to the craziness in the US as I feared. By 2028 it will be proving US$600m per year earnings. Bigger than I realised. They will be generating almost as much energy in the US as NZ consumes. They have managed well the political shift away from renewables in the US, and the energy demand is only going to grow. Huge investment.

- Gurin and Kao are both their next CDC/Longroads... huge potential if they come off.

- Wgtn airport runway extension confirmed (through that new tech concrete stuff they used down in Queenstown rather than pushing it out into the ocean) and will be able to take long haul from end calendar 2025.

- they will be divesting businesses that can't scale to their ambition. My guess (there were no hints) would be Wgtn airport and maybe the retirement stuff.

- NZ businesses going well, but as they grow IFT, NZ has a scale problem. Otherwise, they're not as negative on NZ as many other commentators in the media. One is performing well. They're positive about their Contact shareholding (if the deal is approved). Australian investments are now a bigger share of the pie than NZ.
- having sufficient cashflow to continue paying dividends during this period of massive expansion will be challenging, but there was no suggestion that they won't figure this out.

Overall they came across as competent, laser focussed, very clever, and I couldn't help but feel you can invest in an ETF or you can give these guys your money and they'll do some cool things with it, and through them have exposure to their talent and some compelling sectors."

What is IFT worth ? - IFT's  current market cap (at around $10  a share) values IFT at circa $10B NZD.  However,  CDC's recent partial sale provided a valuation of $17B AUD.   In other words,  Infratil's  50% share of CDC is worth over $9B NZD......  in a single asset.

That leaves  One NZ, Longroad (USA), Kao & Gurin (Japan & Singapore,) Wellington Airport, RetireAustralia, Q Scan (Aus) & Medical Imaging  etc etc   - as  currently valued by the market  at less than $1B NZD......... No wonder the CEO's of Infratil and Morrisons have been buying millions of IFT shares!

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 13, 2025, 08:14 AMWhat is IFT worth ? - IFT's  current market cap (at around $10  a share) values IFT at circa $10B NZD.  However,  CDC's recent partial sale provided a valuation of $17B AUD.   In other words,  Infratil's  50% share of CDC is worth over $9B NZD......  in a single asset.

That leaves  One NZ, Longroad (USA), Kao & Gurin (Japan & Singapore,) Wellington Airport, RetireAustralia, Q Scan (Aus) & Medical Imaging  etc etc   - as  currently valued by the market  at less than $1B NZD......... No wonder the CEO's of Infratil and Morrisons have been buying millions of IFT shares!

Hi Left Field, firstly I'm not debating that IFT appears to be undervalued relative to the sum of parts.  However, I think in your analysis above isn't quite right.

My understanding is that the enterprise value of CDC was recently valued at A$17b. However, you need to deduct debt from that to arrive at the equity value of A$13.7b, IFT share NZ$7.3b - a fair bit lower than NZ$9B.

Also IFT has its own debt. So it isn't as simply as comparing $7.3b + other investments, to the market cap of IFT.  You need to deduct the IFT corporate debt. 

This is set out on page 38 (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452356/attachment/444363/452356-444363.pdf) of the year end presentation.  It shows that the Net assets per share is $16.65, still a health premium to the current share price.

Quote from: Dolcile on Jun 13, 2025, 10:43 AMHi Left Field, firstly I'm not debating that IFT appears to be undervalued....

....Page 38 (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452356/attachment/444363/452356-444363.pdf) of the year end presentation.  It shows that the Net assets per share is $16.65, still a healthy premium to the current share price.

Good on you Dolcile...... as always DYOR

$16.65 NTA per shares less fees = $13.34 NTA after deducting the capitalized value of Morrisons fees.

Based on my research, Morrisons egregiously high fees have averaged just on 2% per annum of NTA over the years.  I think that's VERY high given the size of the portfolio.  It may have been okay when the benchmark fee methodology was set in 1994, but I think its long overdue for review. In the recent Northington report on the takeover of MCK, they applied a factor of nine times the cost to run the company off the value to arrive at adjusted fair value based on NTA.  I think their valuation methodology was sound and it was the best work from them I have ever seen over the decades.

In a nutshell, 2% annual management fee x 9 = 18% discount off the gross value of IFT's assets seems about right when assessing the true adjusted NTA of IFT.

Additionally I think the market is right to be cautious about the value of the CDC data center and the wisdom of having so much of IFT's assets in one sector.
At say $10.30 IFT trades at a ~ 23% discount to adjusted NTA and I note there are many companies on the NZX trading at much higher discounts.

Shares seem like fair value only to me.  Others will see it differently and that's fine.

Help me understand this.....they are deducting 9 x future years of fees from NTA, but applying that to current day NTA...is that correct?  Does that calculation assume zero growth in NTA over the next 9 years?  If so, isn't that a mismatch?  In other words I expect the fees earned for years 2-9 will be offset by an increased NTA over that same time period....so what am I not understanding in thinking the method used is flawed?

Quote from: Basil on Jun 13, 2025, 11:17 AMBased on my research, Morrisons egregiously high fees have averaged just on 2% per annum of NTA over the years.  I think that's VERY high given the size of the portfolio.  It may have been okay when the benchmark fee methodology was set in 1994, but I think its long overdue for review. In the recent Northington report on the takeover of MCK, they applied a factor of nine times the cost to run the company off the value to arrive at adjusted fair value based on NTA.  I think their valuation methodology was sound and it was the best work from them I have ever seen over the decades.

In a nutshell, 2% annual management fee x 9 = 18% discount off the gross value of IFT's assets seems about right when assessing the true adjusted NTA of IFT.

Quote from: Ferg on Jun 13, 2025, 11:41 AMHelp me understand this.....they are deducting 9 x future years of fees from NTA, but applying that to current day NTA...is that correct?  Does that calculation assume zero growth in NTA over the next 9 years?  If so, isn't that a mismatch?  In other words I expect the fees earned for years 2-9 will be offset by an increased NTA over that same time period....so what am I not understanding in thinking the method used is flawed?

Correct. MCK as you know is a hotel company with a much more stable NTA and management costs than IFT.  You'd probably be more correct when valuing the net present value of Morrisons future fees to make some assumptions around the future growth rate based on average historical growth rates, (I am sure Morrisons key executives enjoy doing that).  That said, on the other hand, you could argue that Morrisons have earned their fees based on the outperformance of the NZX over the years and they only continue to grow their fees exponentially if that continues in the years ahead.  Six one way and half a dozen the other.  I'm happy with assuming a 18% discount to spot NTA is fair but I do have reservations about the valuation of the data center. Only time will tell if Morrisons huge bet on this sector works out well.    https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/data-center-boom-may-turn-long-term-glut-risk-goldman-warns

Alokdhir's opinion of IFT SP fair value from the other channel........

"Lot of debate ... about fair value of IFT SP based on NAV stated in year end results ...for me easiest way to assess rough current fair value based on NAV is ...NAV stated on 31st March 2024 was $ 14.35 and that helped them raise $ 1.25 Billion at $ 10.15 ...now NAV stated as on 31st March 2025 is $ 16.65 ...thus based on last huge transacted market assessed equity valuation ...current SP should be NORTH of $ 11.80 !!"

Seems we all agree IFT SP undervalued at present.

FWIW - I've been slowly adding IFT to my portfolio since 2022 ..... my strategy was simply to  collect IFT shares when the SP slipped below levels the CEO had been acquiring at. My average SP is in the low $9.00's so I feel 'well positioned'. 

At some stage IFT will achieve a substantial re-rating IMO.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 15, 2025, 09:25 AMAlokdhir's opinion of IFT SP fair value from the other channel........

"Lot of debate ... about fair value of IFT SP based on NAV stated in year end results ...for me easiest way to assess rough current fair value based on NAV is ...NAV stated on 31st March 2024 was $ 14.35 and that helped them raise $ 1.25 Billion at $ 10.15 ...now NAV stated as on 31st March 2025 is $ 16.65 ...thus based on last huge transacted market assessed equity valuation ...current SP should be NORTH of $ 11.80 !!"

Seems we all agree IFT SP undervalued at present.

FWIW - I've been slowly adding IFT to my portfolio since 2022 ..... my strategy was simply to  collect IFT shares when the SP slipped below levels the CEO had been acquiring at. My average SP is in the low $9.00's so I feel 'well positioned'. 

At some stage IFT will achieve a substantial re-rating IMO.

Before you take NAV as the gold standard of crystal balls - it might be useful to check how other stocks trade related to their NAV.

But first lets look at NAV, shall we? Normally people use NTA (net tangible assets) as one way to fathom "value" (for somebody). NAV however includes intangible stuff like "goodwill" which can change faster than people change their underwear. The intangible value of a datacentre can change fast depending on whether people need it or not. The intangible value of alternative power sources changes significantly whether the alternative powersources are cheaper or more expensive than the conventional ones.

So - NAV is even less useful than NTA to assess some sort of "value".

But lets look at NTA (which for IFT was at its last financials $3.27 per share).

In the retirement industry there is currently something like factor 2 (or larger) between NTA and share price - look at companies like OCA or RYM. Derived from this is the IFT share extremely overrated - should trade around 1.60 per share based on its (still questionable) NTA.

In the real estate business (like KPG, ARV) the factor is currently around 1.5. Why do you think that IFT would deserve such an amazing premium?

Look, you are holding and trying to pull arguments to confimr your views from wherever you can, and - lets face it, on the internet one can always find somebody supporting any view one could imagine.

That's understandable - confirmation bias coupled with endowment bias are some of the strongest human traits. And this is good. This way many people think their partner is best, their god is the only true one and whatever they own is better than whatever their neighbor owns.

Saves humanity a lot of additional conflicts (well, maybe not in the field of mutually exclusive religions, but this is a different theme), but its not necessarily the best approach to get an objective valuation of ones possessions.

I am wondering whether you should try your motto "different thinking"?

What is the value of any datacentre people don't need?

What is the value of a windmill if the country in which it stands uses cheaper oil to run the economy?

What is the value of an airport if people change the way they travel?

What is the value of a me-too phone company in a time when communication prices know only one direction: down?

Not saying the world is crashing down on IFT, since assuming everything going bad is as daft as assuming that everything will run to perfection (which is clearly isn't).

Maybe "different thinking" (your motto) would be to work with likelihoods. How likely is it IFT's best case happens in all its invested areas? How likely is it all goes bad?

Is there anything in between these two scenarios?

Maybe that's what markets currently price in? And maybe markets are (as so often) just a bit optimistic?

I looked into just one of the stunning valuation gains that are claimed to have been made in the last year and ended up with more questions than answers.
Amazing how the paper valuation of Wellington Airport has gone up ~ 50% in the last year whereas AIA shares are up about 5%.  Maybe Wellington airport operates in a different universe to Auckland airport ?

Who would have thought the fair value of a relatively low growth stable property asset could jump by 50% in one year ?  Gosh I bet the likes of ARV which is trading at a ~ one third discount to NTA would have liked to have had that asset in its portfolio.

So how have the valuers come up with this remarkable jump ?  I see from last years valuation they assumed a terminal growth rate of 2.5% but this year that has magically jumped to 3.5%.  That alone has a huge impact on the DCF valuation of an asset.  They've also lowered the risk free rate from 4.85% to 4.50% and cost of capital assumptions have changed as well.

Just as well we know that when it comes to receiving hundreds of millions per annum in fees, there's no way Morrisons would try and influence valuers for their own benefit  ;)

I suspect Mr Market who I note is pricing IFT shares lower now than a year ago, despite these marvelous billions of "on paper" valuations gains is much smarter than many IFT shareholders are giving it credit for.  The market is saying we don't trust these latest valuations. 

The other factor at play here is Morrisons and IFT reputation risk.  The optics on the recent Herald Headline are absolutely appalling
Morrison pockets $456m in fees as Infratil makes net loss of $261.3m Paywalled.  That's so messed up, words fail me.

BP & Basil. Thanks once again for your repeated concerns regarding any investment in IFT.

Much appreciated, however please forgive me if I continue to ignore your warnings.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 16, 2025, 08:38 AMBP & Basil. Thanks once again for your repeated concerns regarding any investment if IFT.

Much appreciated, however please forgive me if I continue to ignore your warnings.

Haha....very droll....looking at BP's post I think he hasn't read the annual report and has no understanding of the NAV that IFT investors talk about.

He is conflating NTA with NAV.  If you looked at that and found the values were poles apart.....wouldn't you hit pause and try to understand it before posting?

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 16, 2025, 08:38 AMBP & Basil. Thanks once again for your repeated concerns regarding any investment if IFT.

Much appreciated, however please forgive me if I continue to ignore your warnings.

You are welcome :) - and no worries, it matters to me not a bit, whether you agree and what you do with your money.

Other than you do I realise as well, that nobody can predict the future - i.e. I only can point out risks and opportunities instead of pretending to know how the future will look. So yes, there is a chance that IFT's hype component (every stock has one) might stay high for months or even years to come.

Look - these forums are designed to represent different opinions, and this makes them interesting. From time to time however groups of cheerleaders full of endowment bias try to take any disagreement with their views down. Wondering whether we reached this state with IFT?

Quite easy to recognise this ... just look at the discussion around the passed ATH's of some of the other "popular" stocks. There is always a mix of cheerleaders and trolls around who fight any disagreement with their world view with all they have got.

Anyway - last time I checked was IFT (since January) in a downtrend and the Death Cross was in late February. Based on my views of the fundamentals does this market assessment make a lot of sense, however I realise that others might assess risks and opportunities differently and be happy as well to buy based on a good story rather than on good fundamentals. As long as they use their own money for this purpose, this is absolutely fine with me.

Sorry BP still ignoring your advice.....

Crikey, today I read on the other side, that the exalted KFL is also ignoring your advice. Clearly they don't know anything and are also ignoring your concerns.

Here's Alokdhir's latest FYI.

" Infratil provided two key updates in relation to CDC Data Centres
during the quarter. Early in January, CDC also announced it has
completed contracting for 230MW of capacity by year end versus
expectations earlier in 2024 that this would reach 400MW. Looking
at the bigger picture, this rate of contracting is still much higher than
was anticipated a year ago, however it was disappointing to see
expectations for a higher level of contracting not met.

In February, Infratil announced an investment of A$216 million
into existing investment CDC Data Centres, increasing its stake by
1.6 percentage points to 49.8%, alongside fellow shareholder the
Future Fund which bought another 10.5% of CDC. The overall deal
was conducted between existing shareholders (Commonwealth
Superannuation Corporation, or 'CSC', selling to Infratil and the
Future Fund). CSC ran an external process to establish valuation,
but existing shareholders had pre-emptive rights allowing them
to purchase the shares on offer at the same price offered by third
parties. The transaction implies an equity value for CDC of A$13.7
billion, a 34% uplift on the prevailing valuation.

Despite this, Infratil's share price declined after the deal was
announced. We attribute this to market concerns on CDC's recent
delayed contract wins and skittish sentiment regarding datacentres
generally including concerns Microsoft is pulling back on demand.
During March, Infratil released a newsletter which noted its portfolio
company One NZ remains on track to meet the mid-point of its
earnings guidance range of $580-620 million (set in May 2024). This
is in stark contrast to heavyweight competitor Spark which made
the fourth downgrade to its current year earnings guidance, citing
"spending cuts and mobile fleet reductions across government
and businesses, changes in product mix, and aggressive price
competition in mobile". We note that mobile share tracking we follow
indicates One NZ (along with rival 2degrees) has progressively
been taking market share from Spark and has also moved more
proactively to position for a consumer slowdown.

During the quarter we saw several key Infratil people step up and
buy a significant number of shares on market with their own money,
which is the ultimate vote of confidence in the longer-term prospects
for Infratil and the value on offer. We also bought additional shares
during the period. "


KFL's view about IFT and their claim that they buying the weakness ...shows a seasoned fund manager is happy to accumulate IFT at current prices as they feel its undervalued.

I get it that discussions around terminal growth rates are beyond most people's understanding and most people think valuers cannot be influenced. (I was naïve like that for a long time too).  Its a big call going from a DCF valuation with a 2.5% terminal growth rate to a 3.5% and affects the DCF valuation considerably.
https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/discounted-cash-flow-blogs/Terminal-Growth-Rate-in-DCF-A-Comprehensive-Guide

I am sure there are many big valuation calls in valuing IFT assets and I am sure Morrisons have had a lot to say about them, that's what the vested interest of earning hundreds of millions in performance fees does to any company.

For what its worth, Forsyth Barr in their recent valuation of KPG, (a property company that you would think would grow in line with the economy and inflation at circa 2-3% per annum) used a 1.5% terminal growth rate in their DCF valuation and a risk free 10 year rate of 5%.  Those are very different numbers to what was used in Wellington airport's valuation. 

For those that this DCF valuation stuff is far above your head, maybe just sit back and think.  In an extremely slow economy, how plausible is it that the value of airport assets suddenly jumps 50% in just one year ?  Hmmm.

For what it is worth Basil I agree regarding the terminal value.  Anything higher than 2% (midpoint of the target inflation range) needs to be carefully scrutinised.

Quote from: Basil on Jun 16, 2025, 11:55 AMI get it that discussions around terminal growth rates are beyond most people's understanding and most people think valuers cannot be influenced. (I was naïve like that for a long time too).  Its a big call going from a DCF valuation with a 2.5% terminal growth rate to a 3.5% and affects the DCF valuation considerably.
https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/discounted-cash-flow-blogs/Terminal-Growth-Rate-in-DCF-A-Comprehensive-Guide

I am sure there are many big valuation calls in valuing IFT assets and I am sure Morrisons have had a lot to say about them, that's what the vested interest of earning hundreds of millions in performance fees does to any company.

For what its worth, Forsyth Barr in their recent valuation of KPG, (a property company that you would think would grow in line with the economy and inflation at circa 2-3% per annum) used a 1.5% terminal growth rate in their DCF valuation and a risk free 10 year rate of 5%.  Those are very different numbers to what was used in Wellington airport's valuation. 

For those that this DCF valuation stuff is far above your head, maybe just sit back and think.  In an extremely slow economy, how plausible is it that the value of airport assets suddenly jumps 50% in just one year ?  Hmmm.

... and that's what just playing with a few innocent parameters can do to valuations.

On top of that come the biggies:

How will the future value of airports look like? If people don't know what I mean, they should maybe check the importance (and with that comes value) of railway stations 1900 - 1950 - 2000 - Now. Hint: Its not a straight line upwards (no matter, whether 2.5% or 3.5% pa, but a mole hill - decades up and then decades down..
 
How will the need for data centers develop? Hardly any around 25 years ago and currently a booming industry. But, what will be the next big thing in data storage and what will be the need?

Ah yes ... and how will the value of telecommunication companies develop? In the past there is hardly any technology (and supporting company) I can think of peaking with what they did for more than a generation or so. All these valuation specialists tend to forget to plan for the trend change and the long way down ...

Anybody able to tell me, how Infratils valuers are able to predict what the next big thing will be in telecommunication, energy generation and travel and how Infratils companies will benefit? Clearly - they are not, but they are paid for making up big numbers, and hey - this is what they are doing.

And hey - the valuers win - they are never hold responsible for their past valuations, but they get paid well for pleasing their clients today with big numbers.

The clients win because they get paid big bonusses for big valuations, not for realistic valuations

... and the shareholders? Well, who cares?

Always follow the money ...

I guess if you don't believe in independent valuations, industry specialists and technology experts, then clearly IFT isn't for you.

Although I do have some concerns about the MCO fee structure, IFT looked too cheap to me yesterday - so I purchased a few with the spare cash I had sitting in my brokerage account. 

I did observe a couple of things before i purchased:
1. IFT has outperformed the S&P500 over the last 10 years
2. Since the tariff debacle the IFT stock price hadn't bounced back in the same why that the S&P500 has, and looked oversold.
3. heavy insider buying at below $10.50

I've also got an exposure to IFT in my NZX50 tracker so a few more won't hurt.

Nice to be up 4% today.

Speaking of index inclusion bumps.

IFT heading for ASX50 inclusion later this year.....possibly Sept according to CFO of Morrisons at a recent S/Holders meeting.

Quite a big deal apparently.

CEO buying more

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 29, 2025, 09:41 AMSpeaking of index inclusion bumps.

IFT heading for ASX50 inclusion later this year.....possibly Sept according to CFO of Morrisons at a recent S/Holders meeting.

Quite a big deal apparently.

For those wanting to DYOR here's a link re make up of ASX100
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx100

...and the same for ASX50
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx50

Interesting to note IFT already in ASX100 with IFT's current mkt cap cited as circa $A9.7 Bill..... so when will the ASX50 be next for IFT?

In the meantime good to see the IFT CEO buying more last week.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/454224/attachment/446557/454224-446557.pdf

I picked up a few more yesterday at $10.51

Still only <1% of the portfolio.

CDC Independent Valuation – 30 June 2025

04/07/2025, 09:58 NZST, MKTUPDTE

The 30 June 2025 independent valuation of Infratil's investment in CDC shows an increase of A$148 million over the three months since the 31 March 2025 valuation.
 
 The increase reflects the completion of the Transaction announced in February 2025, with Infratil acquiring a 1.58% stake in CDC for A$220 million (including typical completion adjustments), increasing its shareholding from 48.17% in March 2025 to 49.76% in June 2025. This was slightly offset by a 1% decline in the assessed equity valuation of CDC on a 100% basis from A$13,701 million in March 2025 to A$13,560 million as at 30 June 2025.
 
 Infratil's 49.76% investment in CDC is now valued at between A$6,208 million to A$7,363 million (with a midpoint of A$6,748 million), compared with A$6,066 million to A$7,208 million (with a midpoint of A$6,600 million) based on Infratil's 48.17% shareholding at the end of March 2025.
 
 The growth forecast underpinning CDC's build capacity to FY2034 remains consistent with the March 2025 update. During the period CDC commenced additional construction in Melbourne and Canberra, increasing capacity under construction to 453MW. CDC also increased operational capacity by 54MW in Auckland, to reach a portfolio total of 372MW. With the progression of these developments, CDC continues to demonstrate its strong track record of delivering projects on time and to budget.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 30, 2025, 01:45 PMFor those wanting to DYOR here's a link re make up of ASX100
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx100

...and the same for ASX50
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx50

Interesting to note IFT already in ASX100 with IFT's current mkt cap cited as circa $A9.7 Bill..... so when will the ASX50 be next for IFT?

I've DYOR'ed enough to know that the S&P DJI indexes aren't based on a simple market cap ranking.

Since IFT has a primary listing in NZ, only some fraction of its free-float market cap (itself some fraction of total market cap) will get counted towards ASX index ranking.

This is the flipside of ANZ and WBC, which have secondary listings in NZ, but are large enough that the small fraction counted towards NZ index rankings is enough to put them in the NZX50.

And then there's a hurdle to clear for inclusion, as the index favours retaining existing entrants for stability.

While I haven't looked into the numbers for IFT / ASX100 yet, I'm not getting too excited.

Crikey, CEO still buying.....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/454659/attachment/447055/454659-447055.pdf

The CEO isn't messing about, he's purchased another $1.25m worth.

That's nearly 1 million shares / $10m YTD.

Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 07, 2025, 12:53 PMThe CEO isn't messing about, he's purchased another $1.25m worth.

That's nearly 1 million shares / $10m YTD.

And he got part of his reward today....comfortably back above $11.00 (with a strong finish in ASX.) Next stop $12.00.

Businessdesk has an article discussing details of a Jarden report saying the "big beautiful bill" that passed was much friendlier than initially anticipated for Infratil/Longroad in the USA.

They just need to start construction on all their projects before July next year (even if that projects takes a long time to complete) because any project that starts construction by then is grandfathered into the tax credits etc.

Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Jul 08, 2025, 11:09 AMBusinessdesk has an article discussing details of a Jarden report saying the "big beautiful bill" that passed was much friendlier than initially anticipated for Infratil/Longroad in the USA.

They just need to start construction on all their projects before July next year (even if that projects takes a long time to complete) because any project that starts construction by then is grandfathered into the tax credits etc.

This also confirmed at the recent investor road show meetings. Seems IFT's Longroad has worked hard to ensure 99% of its pipeline projects are exempt from any of Trumps proposed taxes until at least 2030.

IFT official confirmation of the above two posts

IFT/Longroad now 'materially better off' under Trump's Big Beautiful  Bill than previously anticipated.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/454796

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 09, 2025, 12:17 PMIFT official confirmation of the above two posts

IFT/Longroad now 'materially better off' under Trump's Big Beautiful Bill than previously anticipated.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/454796

Should help settle market jitters (although down a fraction today) and I like the positive note about current (and possible future) projects being "safe-harboured under the legislation.
IFT well positioned to outlast the effect of Trump I feel.

CEO still buying, this time another $500k.

Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 14, 2025, 10:13 AMCEO still buying, this time another $500k.

Very reassuring that he's still buying at prices well above my average holding SP.  ;)

I purchased some more IFT today as prices below Jason :-)

From the other channel, IFT to join the ASX200

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02967778_PS-6A1273109&v=4a466cc3f899e00730cfbfcd5ab8940c41f474b6

Up 3.5% in early trading. Index bump perhaps.

Now 8%

Still strong demand for IFT

Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 18, 2025, 12:30 PMStill strong demand for IFT

Yep, they might have a future after all. Who knew?

Did anyone attend the presentation hosted by Sharesies? I couldn't make it. 

IFT's Longroad well positioned (as is IKE)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-is-power-hungry-and-americas-aging-grid-cant-keep-up-090045961.html

Each year, PJM holds a capacity auction to determine the lowest pay-rate energy producers are willing to accept from the grid operator to guarantee that they will be ready to provide power at any time during the delivery period covered by the auction, usually several years out.

In this summer's auction, generators offered an additional 2,669 megawatts of power supplies to be added through infrastructure upgrades and new builds.

It was the first time in the past four auctions that new capacity was added. But the additions only meet around half of the demand PJM is expecting to see over the coming three years. That impact will show up in Americans' electricity bills.

In PJM's 2024 auction, the utility's clearing price — the end price that determines what it has to pay all participating power generators — was $269.92 per megawatt-day, an 800% increase from the previous year.

(ps nice to see IFT SP edging above $12.00. again...... onwards and upwards.)

IFT sells Retire Australia for $845 Mill.....this move well signalled in recent S/H meetings......... book loss of circa $80 Mill......"When Infratil made its initial investment of A$215 million in December 2014,( it's )market capitalisation was NZ$1.6 billion. With a market capitalisation now exceeding
NZ$11 billion, and despite a positive outlook for the business, it is increasingly difficult for an investment of this size to deliver meaningful
returns for Infratil shareholders.

Infratil and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZ Super) have entered into
a binding agreement to sell their 100% interest in RetireAustralia to Invesco
Real Estate, the global real estate investment business of Invesco Ltd., for
A$845 million.

Infratil and NZ Super each own a 50% interest in
RetireAustralia with both shareholders' interests managed by global
infrastructure investment manager Morrison. The transaction is subject to
the satisfaction of a limited number of conditions, including FIRB approval,
and is expected to complete in the final quarter of the 2025 calendar year.
At completion, Infratil expects to receive proceeds of approximately A$300
million (NZ$328 million), with final proceeds to be adjusted for transaction
costs and completion adjustments. Jason Boyes, Infratil Chief Executive,
said: "RetireAustralia is a quality business in a strong position for future
growth under Invesco's ownership. "Since Infratil's initial investment in
2014, RetireAustralia has undergone significant change, including the
appointment of new leadership, a refreshed strategy, and a strengthened
development pipeline. Unfortunately, over the same period, the sector has
faced a number of challenges, which have contributed to us not being able to
fully realise our ambitions for the RetireAustralia business.

"RetireAustralia is ably led by Chief Executive Dr Brett Robinson, and I'd
like to acknowledge and thank the management team for their ongoing
leadership and contribution to Australia's Retirement Living Sector." As
at 31 March 2025, the carrying value of Infratil's investment in
RetireAustralia was NZ$404 million, with the transaction expected to result
in an accounting loss on sale of approximately NZ$80 million.

The forecast sale proceeds are expected to preserve almost all contributed capital when
taking into account capital contributed and distributions received,
delivering an internal rate of return (IRR) close to nil over the ~11 year
holding period.

Although at a loss, the decision to sell RetireAustralia
is consistent with the strategy outlined at our full-year result, where we
indicated our intention to divest businesses unlikely to scale under our
ownership to increase balance sheet flexibility for reinvestment. Further
work toward our $1 billion divestment target continues.

When Infratil made its initial investment of A$215 million in December 2014, our market
capitalisation was NZ$1.6 billion. With a market capitalisation now exceeding
NZ$11 billion, and despite a positive outlook for the business, it is
increasingly difficult for an investment of this size to deliver meaningful
returns for Infratil shareholders. The transaction also results in a
forecast negative realised incentive fee of approximately NZ$21 million in
relation to RetireAustralia as at 31 March 2026, which is expected to be
offset against other incentive fees at that time.

This bit is telling and a reflection of the state of the retirement sector -

delivering an internal rate of return (IRR) close to nil over the ~11 year
holding period.

It could have been worse, they could have bought a stake in 2014 in RYM at $8.50  :o...or they could have bought SUM and tripled their money.
Just posted a presentation of Kingfish annual meeting and the manager explained why they exited.

IFT confirms what was indicated in recent investor update meetings re Longroad and USA tax credits.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/456901

"Longroad remains well positioned to meet its medium term target of having an 8.5 GW fleet built or in construction by then end of the 2028 financial year. The guidance provides workable timelines for utility-scale projects and preserves flexibility for distributed generation, supporting continued development momentum."


Market seems to like the confirmation so far today.

Old news rehashed  as Amazon Web Services launches/opens its NZ Data centres.... no mention of IFT or CDC, no mention of locations.....however One NZ is detailed in the impressive client list!?

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/content.asp?contentid=27213

"....As part of its long-term commitment, Amazon is planning to invest more than NZ$7.5 billion in New Zealand to support the construction, connection, operation, and maintenance of its data centers in the country.
 
"The new AWS Region in New Zealand will help serve the growing demand for cloud services across the country and empower organizations of all sizes to accelerate their digital transformation," said Prasad Kalyanaraman, vice president of Infrastructure Services at AWS. "With this launch, businesses can now leverage advanced AWS technologies, from core cloud capabilities to artificial intelligence and machine learning, all while meeting local data residency requirements. By investing in New Zealand's digital infrastructure, we're proud to support the country's economic growth, foster innovation, and help position it as a technology hub in the Asia Pacific region."....

...Organisations in New Zealand that choose AWS to run their workloads include AMP New Zealand, AsureQuality, Contact Energy, Education Perfect, Foodstuffs South Island, Halter, Kiwibank, MATTR, Mercury NZ, Les Mills, Ministry of Transport, Mitre 10 New Zealand, New Zealand Post, One New Zealand, Sharesies, Steel & Tube Holdings, Toitū Te Whenua Land Information New Zealand, TradeMe, TVNZ, University of Auckland, Vector, Wellington City Council, Xero, and more...."

Quote from: Left Field on Sep 02, 2025, 01:28 PMOld news rehashed  as Amazon Web Services launches/opens its NZ Data centres.... no mention of IFT or CDC, no mention of locations.....however One NZ is detailed in the impressive client list!?

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/content.asp?contentid=27213

"....As part of its long-term commitment, Amazon is planning to invest more than NZ$7.5 billion in New Zealand to support the construction, connection, operation, and maintenance of its data centers in the country.
 
"The new AWS Region in New Zealand will help serve the growing demand for cloud services across the country and empower organizations of all sizes to accelerate their digital transformation," said Prasad Kalyanaraman, vice president of Infrastructure Services at AWS. "With this launch, businesses can now leverage advanced AWS technologies, from core cloud capabilities to artificial intelligence and machine learning, all while meeting local data residency requirements. By investing in New Zealand's digital infrastructure, we're proud to support the country's economic growth, foster innovation, and help position it as a technology hub in the Asia Pacific region."....

...Organisations in New Zealand that choose AWS to run their workloads include AMP New Zealand, AsureQuality, Contact Energy, Education Perfect, Foodstuffs South Island, Halter, Kiwibank, MATTR, Mercury NZ, Les Mills, Ministry of Transport, Mitre 10 New Zealand, New Zealand Post, One New Zealand, Sharesies, Steel & Tube Holdings, Toitū Te Whenua Land Information New Zealand, TradeMe, TVNZ, University of Auckland, Vector, Wellington City Council, Xero, and more...."

And MATTR eez a Zpark zubsidiary!

RB

Quote from: Left Field on Sep 02, 2025, 01:28 PMOld news rehashed  as Amazon Web Services launches/opens its NZ Data centres.... no mention of IFT or CDC, no mention of locations.....however One NZ is detailed in the impressive client list!?

Kind of.  They announced it back in 2020 then quietly canned it when they found out how expensive everything in NZ is.  Either that, or Labour losing the election meant that their secret tax breaks disappeared as well. 

Now that its been resurrected, the real question is what did Luxon have to promise, and how much will taxpayers be contributing, in order for Amazon to agree to greenlight the project again.  They usually dont do anything, anywhere, unless promised big Govt subsidies or tax breaks. 

Examples:
https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2025/06/amazon-data-centers-pennsylvania-tax-break-energy-grid/
https://goodjobsfirst.org/at-1-billion-amazons-oregon-subsidy-is-largest-known-in-history/
https://www.uni-europa.org/news/amazons-hidden-subsidies/
https://ncrp.org/resources/what-does-amazons-hq2-tax-break-grab-mean-for-u-s-cities/

Then the bigger question for IFT shareholders - how does IFT compete against a corporate behemoth that operates not just tax free, but govt subsidised?

Quote from: KW on Sep 02, 2025, 05:07 PMThen the bigger question for IFT shareholders - how does IFT compete against a corporate behemoth that operates not just tax free, but govt subsidised?

Yes Amazon has the clout to secure horrendous advantages that threaten competitors, however...not all Governments (and not all companies) want to hand their data over to AWS or create a monopoly.

Think sovereignty and data security.

Think energy and  IFT's Longroad, Gurin etc (nicely positioned in the renewable energy sector)

And then again, think AWS probably already an IFT/CDC customer/partner .

Per this Newsroom article - seems like AWS NZ data centres are vapourware and PR fluff, with AWS just using CDC data centres here. Shout out to Allfromacell on the other channel for sharing this. Corporate comedy gold and good business for CDC.

https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/02/amazon-aborts-construction-of-west-auckland-data-centre/ (https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/02/amazon-aborts-construction-of-west-auckland-data-centre/)

NBR reports that wealth management firm CITI has opened coverage of IFT with a BUY rating and target SP of $14.10c

Seems Citi  is impressed by IFT's Longroad and CDC prospects.

IFT shares up 2.6% today to $12.40

ps TA  encouraging more upside.

Larry Ellison overtakes Elon Musk as worlds richest man on the back of data centre and cloud computing strengths......

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/sep/10/larry-ellison-dislodges-elon-musk-as-worlds-richest-person

"Oracle accounts for the majority of Ellison's wealth and its value has been boosted by demand from AI companies for its cloud services, which provide computing capacity for firms such as ChatGPT developer OpenAI, who need vast datacentres to power their technology."

IFT holders waiting patiently.... ;)

 IFT just released attached presentation materials being used for a North American renewables valuation workshop with analysts this afternoon.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/458973/attachment/452338/458973-452338.pdf

Impressive forward projections for Longroad. Enjoy.

Some good discussion of the North American analysts material (see post #426) on the other channel which I won't repeat.

Some added thoughts & questions;

1.) Note the figures presented are  in $USD
2.) Why was this material prepared for Nth American analysts?
3.) If IFT/Longroad is able to pay out only $US 150m of capital per year to get $US 2,000m of capex what would the current market value be for Longroad?
4.) Does it make sense for IFT to sell (say) 40% of Longroad?
5.) If IFT sells (say) 40% of Longroad what value would this return do to the value of IFT whose current Market Cap is approximately  $NZ 12.2 Billion ?

Lots of Q's.... no answers.....the market will have its say.......interesting times ahead.

More from IFT..... keeping us busy with this update from today's Sydney based investors briefing.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/458998

"Our recent inclusion in the S&P/ASX 200 index has helped lift Australian ownership over 10%, but that's still well below the 40% or so of our asset portfolio that is invested here in Australia," she said.
 
 Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said the company is prioritising further investment in the fast-growing digital and renewable energy sectors and simplifying its current portfolio.
 
 "Our target is to achieve between 11 to 15 per cent returns over a rolling 10-year period and today we're showcasing some of the exciting growth opportunities we see from our global portfolio after navigating a volatile nine months," he said.
 
 Four of Infratil's portfolio companies are providing updates on their operations. Australasian data centre operator CDC remains on track to double FY25 earnings by FY27, with contracting progressing well, and expected to be completed in the near term. Longroad Energy has clarity on tax credit qualification for its future projects and announced a new solar project earlier this week to deliver renewable energy for Meta in Texas. Gurīn Energy has its first solar site operational in the Philippines and is progressing plans to deliver renewable energy from Indonesia to Singapore. One NZ has maintained steady performance despite the wider challenges of the New Zealand economy and is investing for operational efficiency.
 
 Infratil has also announced a strategic review of Australian medical imaging business Qscan. Infratil's 57% shareholding in Qscan was last valued at NZ$460 million. This follows an announcement in August of the sale of its 50% stake in RetireAustralia for NZ$328 million, with the transaction expected to be completed by the end of the calendar year. Infratil is targeting NZ$1 billion of divestment proceeds from the simplification of its investment portfolio."

News out today.....

"CDC has today confirmed it has secured approximately 100MW of new contracted capacity.
 
 Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said the announcement underscores strong ongoing demand in the Australasian data centre market.
 
 "As highlighted at Infratil's Investor Day last week, CDC continues to lead the market with its ability to deliver large-scale data centre footprints tailored to growing customer demand driven by cloud and AI workloads.
 
 "This announcement provides high visibility that CDC remains on track to double FY25 earnings by FY27. With other contracts signed since May, approximately 95% of forecast lease revenues are now under contract, and we remain confident in contracting the remaining capacity.
 
 "These contracts demonstrate CDC's ability to attract significant capacity demand due to its technological advantage and unrivalled track record of delivering future-proof campuses for the AI world."

$32 mill CDC valuation bonus for IFT......plus market still to catch up on US overnight news re  AMI Chip supply deal with Open AI.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/460162

The 30 September 2025 independent valuation of CDC shows an increase of A$77 million since 30 June 2025, to A$13.6 billion, reflecting the mid-point of the assessed valuation range of A$12.8 billion to A$14.5 billion. On this basis, Infratil's 49.72% interest in CDC is valued at A$6,780 million, up A$32 million from A$6,748 million at 30 June 2025.

https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-signs-ai-chip-supply-deal-with-openai-gives-it-option-take-10-stake-2025-10-06/

New deal for CDC which includes Nvidia as a client. Details TBA with half year results in Nov.

Not marked as price sensitive at this stage.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/460798

Good stuff, does anyone know what the bottleneck is for CDC to get even more aggressive with growth and build even more DCs then they already have planned? Maybe it's power?

The compute scaling laws of AI essentially guarantee the demand is not gong away, in fact it's going to grow by many orders of magnitude. It's hard for some to accept but the simple reality is the more compute you throw at AI models the more intelligent they become.

The question is who benefits the most as we build out the infrastructure to convert terrawats of electricity into compute, right now nvida is collecting the majority of the margins, hundreds of billions cash flows this year alone?

Is capital better put there as this spend goes up by 10x or 100x etc?

I see CDC as a risk adverse way to gain exposure to this AI infrastructure spend but in terms of one's overall exposure to AI, there are surely much more aggressive ways to capture the huge upside.

What a time to be alive.

CDC DATA CENTRES - INFRATIL INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
NZX: IFT | CDC Valuation Update - 30 September 2025

VALUATION SUMMARY
Infratil's 49.72% Interest in CDC:

Current Value: A$6,780 million (up A$32M from June 2025)
Total CDC Value: A$13.6 billion (valuation range: A$12.8B - A$14.5B)
Quarterly Increase: A$77 million (+0.57%)
Net Debt: A$4,431 million (up from A$4,070M June 2025)

Key Operational Metrics:

Operating Capacity: 372MW (unchanged)
Under Construction: 453MW (unchanged)
Future Build Pipeline to FY34: 1,636MW
Total Pipeline: 2,461MW
New Contracted Capacity: ~100MW secured in Q3 2025

Valuation Drivers - Q3 2025:

Cost of Equity: 11.38% (up from 11.05% in June)
Asset Specific Risk Premium (ASRP): Reduced (reflecting de-risking)
Forecast Gearing Ratio: Increased (valuer methodology change, not structural)
Build Programme: Consistent through FY34
Committed Capital: A$250M additional within 6 months

Positive Developments:

Perth, Western Australia expansion announced
100MW new contracted capacity secured
Strong demand across Australasia confirmed
Valuer reduced ASRP due to execution progress


GLOBAL RISK ASSESSMENT - DATA CENTRES 2025-2026
CRITICAL RISK #1: Climate & Physical Infrastructure
Climate Hazard Exposure:

APAC Region: >10% of data centres at HIGH RISK in 2025 (rising to >12% by 2050)
Major hubs (Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Bangkok) face 20-64% high-risk facilities by 2050
Eight climate hazards tracked: flooding, cyclones, fires, coastal inundation, extreme wind, freeze-thaw, soil movement
Insurance costs projected to triple/quadruple by 2050 without adaptation

CDC Geographic Exposure:

Canberra: 117MW operating, 58MW under construction, 73MW future (248MW total)
Sydney: 123MW operating, 168MW under construction, 878MW future (1,169MW total)
Melbourne: 34MW operating, 226MW under construction, 525MW future (785MW total)
Auckland: 98MW operating, 0MW under construction, 126MW future (224MW total)
Australian Expansion: 34MW future

Risk Mitigation Assessment:

Australia/NZ generally lower climate risk vs Asia/US hotspots
Sydney expansion (largest pipeline) requires climate adaptation planning
Perth expansion brings new geographic risk profile (need assessment)
Adaptation measures can reduce climate risk by 72% (per XDI report)

Financial Impact:

Insurance premium increases likely 2026-2030
Capex requirements for climate adaptation not disclosed
Physical damage risk relatively contained vs global peers


CRITICAL RISK #2: Energy Infrastructure & Power Availability
Global Power Crisis:

US data centre power demand: 35GW (2025) → 78GW (2035)
Power transmission delays: 4+ years in many regions
Northern Virginia: New connections paused until 2026 due to grid instability
AI workloads driving 3x increase in energy demand

Australian/NZ Power Market:

Australia: Renewable energy transition underway but capacity constrained
Electricity prices volatile in Australia (Q3 2025)
Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) critical for new capacity
Government support for data centre development

CDC Exposure:

1,636MW future build requires securing ~1.6GW of power capacity
A$250M committed capital likely includes power infrastructure
Valuation assumes build to 2040, but power availability is constraint
Perth expansion: Western Australia power grid capacity TBD

Risk Assessment:

MODERATE - Australasian power markets less stressed than US
Power costs rising = potential margin pressure
Timing risk: Development delays if power unavailable


CRITICAL RISK #3: AI Disruption & Demand Volatility
DeepSeek Moment (January 2025):

Chinese AI startup achieved similar LLM results with 90% less compute power
Challenged assumption: "Bigger AI = More Computing Power"
Market impact: Tech valuations dropped, data centre expansion assumptions questioned
Key question: Is data centre capacity expansion sustainable if AI becomes more efficient?

AI Data Centre Economics:

AI rack density: 40kW → 130kW (2025) → 250kW (2030 projection)
AI data centres generate $12.50/watt revenue vs $4.20/watt traditional
33% of global data centre capacity dedicated to AI by 2025
AI cooling requirements: Liquid cooling replacing air systems

CDC Position:

CDC serves hyperscale customers (cloud, AI workloads)
100MW new contracts in Q3 2025 suggest demand remains strong
Risk: If AI compute efficiency improves faster than expected, demand growth slows
Opportunity: AI-optimized facilities command premium pricing

Risk Assessment:

MODERATE-HIGH - Technology disruption risk is real but timeline uncertain
CDC's contracted capacity (100MW) provides near-term revenue visibility
Future build pipeline (1,636MW) faces demand uncertainty post-2027


CRITICAL RISK #4: Cost of Capital & Valuation Methodology
Valuation Changes - New Valuer (Sept 2025):

Cost of Equity: 11.05% → 11.38% (+0.33%)
Gearing Ratio: Increased (methodology change)
ASRP: Reduced (de-risking operational sites)
Net Impact: +A$77M valuation increase (modest)

Financial Structure:

Net Debt: A$4,431M (up A$361M from June)
Debt/Equity: Rising gearing ratio
Terminal Year: 2055 (assumes 30+ year operations)
Capex: A$250M committed near-term, A$billions required for full pipeline

Interest Rate Environment (Oct 2025):

Risk-free rate: 4.00% (stable)
Asset beta: 0.575 (unchanged)
Global interest rates: Declining in NZ/Australia (supportive)

Valuation Sensitivity:

0.33% cost of equity increase = material valuation impact
Future valuations dependent on execution, not just market conditions
Net debt rising faster than equity value (leverage increasing)

Risk Assessment:

MODERATE - Cost of capital stable but valuation sensitive to execution
Infratil must commit A$250M+ within 6 months (dilution or debt?)
Valuation range (A$12.8B - A$14.5B) = +/- 6.25% uncertainty


CRITICAL RISK #5: Regulatory & Cybersecurity
Global Regulatory Trends 2025-2026:

EU NIS2: Cybersecurity standards effective January 2025
EU DORA: Financial sector resilience requirements (2025)
Singapore: Digital Infrastructure Act under development
Sustainability Reporting: EU CSRD (2025), Asia phasing in (2026-2028)
PUE Requirements: Australia targeting 1.3 or lower (2025 standards)

CDC Exposure:

Operates in multiple jurisdictions (Australia, NZ, future Perth)
Banking/financial services clients = heightened cybersecurity requirements
Sustainability reporting requirements coming (2026-2027 likely)
No disclosed cybersecurity incidents (positive)

Compliance Costs:

Cybersecurity infrastructure investment required
Sustainability reporting = operational overhead
PUE compliance may require cooling technology upgrades
Perth expansion must meet Western Australia regulations

Risk Assessment:

LOW-MODERATE - Regulatory risk is manageable but adds cost
Infratil/CDC experienced in regulatory compliance
Early adoption of standards = competitive advantage


CRITICAL RISK #6: Execution & Development Pipeline
Development Pipeline Complexity:

453MW under construction (2025-2026 completion expected)
1,636MW future build (2027-2034)
Total capex: A$10B+ estimated (not disclosed)
100MW contracted but not yet built

Execution Risks:

Construction cost inflation (2024-2025 high)
Labor shortages in Australian construction market
Supply chain delays (cooling equipment, generators, electrical)
Permitting delays (environmental, power grid connection)

Historical Performance:

June → Sept: No capacity additions despite A$361M debt increase
453MW under construction unchanged (completion timeline TBD)
Future build increased modestly (1,629MW → 1,636MW)

Risk Assessment:

MODERATE-HIGH - Execution risk is material given pipeline size
A$250M committed capital is small relative to total build programme
Timeline slippage would delay revenue, increase costs
Valuation assumes completion to 2040 (15-year execution period)


GLOBAL EVENTS - RISK FACTORS (2025-2026)
Geopolitical:

US-China tech decoupling continues (semiconductor, AI restrictions)
Outbound Investment Security Program (US) regulates investment in AI/quantum sectors
China economic weakness (impacts demand from Chinese tech companies)
Trade tensions = potential supply chain disruptions

Economic:

Australia economic slowdown (2025) = enterprise spending caution
NZ domestic recession (consumer) but export sector strong
Interest rates declining (supportive for infrastructure)
Commodity prices volatile (construction materials)

Technology:

AI efficiency gains (DeepSeek impact) = demand uncertainty
Liquid cooling technology transition = capex requirement
Quantum computing development = potential disruption (2028+)
Edge computing vs centralized data centres (competitive dynamic)

Environmental:

Water stress: APAC region faces high water stress by 2030 (52% of hubs)
Carbon emissions: Data centres = 3.4% of global CO2 (2025)
Renewable energy requirements = PPA costs rising
Heat management: Cooling Degree Days +83% average (2030-2080)


INVESTMENT THESIS - CDC/INFRATIL
Bull Case:

Strong contracted demand (100MW Q3 2025)
Australasian market less saturated than US
Infratil experienced infrastructure investor
AI/cloud migration secular growth trend
Lower climate risk vs Asia/US peers
Valuation increased despite conservative cost of equity rise

Bear Case:

AI compute efficiency gains (DeepSeek) threaten demand assumptions
Execution risk on 1,636MW future build pipeline
Rising net debt (A$4.4B) with ongoing capital requirements
Climate adaptation capex not disclosed
Power infrastructure constraints could delay build
Valuation sensitive to cost of capital changes

Base Case Assessment:

CDC remains strategic asset for Infratil
Near-term (2025-2027): Strong demand, execution risk
Medium-term (2027-2030): Demand visibility improves as AI workloads mature
Long-term (2030+): Climate adaptation, technology disruption risks rise


KEY MONITORING METRICS - QUARTERLY
Operational:

MW capacity additions (operating, under construction, future)
Contracted capacity vs pipeline (100MW contracted in Q3 = benchmark)
Utilization rates (not disclosed - request transparency)
Customer concentration (hyperscale vs enterprise mix)

Financial:

Valuation changes (cost of equity, ASRP, gearing)
Net debt growth vs equity value growth
Capital commitments (A$250M within 6 months is first tranche)
Revenue per MW (pricing power indicator)

External Factors:

Australian/NZ power market capacity and pricing
Climate events impacting Australasian operations
AI compute efficiency trends (follow DeepSeek developments)
Regulatory changes (PUE standards, cybersecurity, sustainability)

Geographic Expansion:

Perth project milestones (power agreements, permits, construction start)
New region announcements (CDC expanding beyond current footprint?)


RECOMMENDATION
CDC/Infratil Position: HOLD - MONITOR CLOSELY
Rationale:

Valuation increase modest (+0.57%) despite strong demand narrative
Net debt rising faster than equity value = leverage concern
Execution risk on 1,636MW pipeline material and underappreciated
Global data centre risks (climate, energy, AI disruption) increasing 2025-2026
Infratil's 49.72% stake valued at A$6.78B (~NZ$7.46B at 1.10 FX rate)

Risk-Adjusted Fair Value:

Current: A$6,780M (Infratil share)
Bull Case (execution success, AI demand sustained): A$7,500M+ by 2027
Bear Case (delays, demand slowdown, climate costs): A$6,000M by 2027

Action Items for Infratil Shareholders:

Request transparency on utilization rates and revenue per MW
Monitor A$250M capital commitment timing and terms (debt vs equity)
Track Perth expansion progress (power agreements critical)
Watch for climate adaptation capex disclosures
Assess impact of AI compute efficiency on demand forecasts


Analysis Date: October 16, 2025
Next Valuation: December 2025 (Q4 2025 expected)
Key Risks: Execution, AI Disruption, Climate, Power Infrastructure
Opportunity: Australasian data centre market growth, lower climate risk vs global peers

Interesting debate on the other channel. It seems Snoopy who some accuse of 'paralysis by analysis' struggles to see the potential of IFT's CDC investments.

The following from today's response to Snoopy from Poster 3141592 corrects some of Snoopy's errors and echoes my thinking.

3. What the independent valuation actually captures
PwC/Northington's independent valuation doesn't capitalise the full 2.46 GW master-plan to 2040. It includes only committed and near-term builds — those with anchor tenants and final investment decision — while the longer-dated land and power bank are held at cost. If the entire roadmap were valued, the enterprise value would be above A$20 b, not ~A$13–14 b. The implied multiple therefore sits around 20–22× FY27E EBITDAF.
4. Relative to global peers
Recent strategic data-centre transactions — Aligned (Nvidia/BlackRock/DigitalBridge), AirTrunk, Compass, Global Switch — have cleared at 25–30× forward EBITDAF. By comparison, CDC's valuation is 15–30 % below those benchmarks. The independent valuers use a conservative infrastructure lens (non-recourse debt, long-dated contracts, mid-teens pre-tax discount rate), not a "tech growth" premium.

In short:

The DCF values only committed, contracted capacity.
And on forward multiples, CDC remains below, not above, global hyperscale peers.

(You can find  more details on points 1 & 2 on the other channel)

Seems  IFT SP is trading well below its potential .

IFT increases shareholding in Contact energy (CEN)  to 14.3%

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/461007

The purchase price of $437.7 million, or $8.95 per share, will be funded through a combination of $218.8 million in existing debt capacity and the issuance of $218.8 million of new Infratil shares to TECT at $12.43 per share, being the NZX closing price on Friday, 17 October 2025.
 
 On completion, Infratil's shareholding in Contact will rise to 14.3%, up from 9.4% following the recent merger of Contact and Manawa Energy. Infratil had earlier completed the sale of its 51% stake in Manawa Energy to Contact in July 2025, in return for approximately NZ$186 million in cash and its current shareholding in Contact. The acquisition reinforces Infratil's strategy to invest in high-quality assets in strong market environments.

Reading the businessdesk article on IFT today.

CDC now has enough capacity contracted to hit 95% & 100% of its stated 2027 financial year earnings projections according to analysts at Jarden & Forsyth Barr respectively.

Quote from: Left Field on Oct 17, 2025, 02:28 PMInteresting debate on the other channel. It seems Snoopy who some accuse of 'paralysis by analysis' struggles to see the potential of IFT's CDC investments.

With Infratil I think a key part is who gets the potential of the underlying businesses, Infratil shareholders or Morrison & Co, given how the latter is paid. For example, buying 50% of Vodafone and then paying more for the other half placed a higher value on the whole - certainly useful for Morrison & Co.

Steady as she goes IFT 1H FY26

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/462548


 • Proportionate operational EBITDAF up 7% from HY25 to $514 million
 • Proportionate capital expenditure down $52 million from HY25 to $1,139 million
 • Net parent surplus of $606 million reflecting CDC asset valuation increases and Manawa Energy sale
 • Sale of Fortysouth and Infratil Property investments announced for combined $250m+
 • EBITDAF guidance updated to reflect portfolio divestments
 • Dividend of 7.25cps consistent with HY25

Results are out:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/462548

Interim results for the period ended 30 September 2025


13/11/2025, 08:30 NZDT, HALFYR

Earnings lift as Infratil refines its portfolio for growth
• Proportionate operational EBITDAF up 7% from HY25 to $514 million
• Proportionate capital expenditure down $52 million from HY25 to $1,139 million
• Net parent surplus of $606 million reflecting CDC asset valuation increases and Manawa Energy sale
• Sale of Fortysouth and Infratil Property investments announced for combined $250m+
• EBITDAF guidance updated to reflect portfolio divestments
• Dividend of 7.25cps consistent with HY25

Infratil delivered a step-up in earnings for the six months ended 30 September 2025 and announced the divestment of Fortysouth and its legacy property assets as it refines its portfolio for further growth.

The geographic and sector diversity of Infratil's portfolio saw Proportionate Operational EBITDAF [1] grow to $514 million in the six-month period to 30 September. This was up 7% from the prior HY25 period, largely driven by Longroad Energy in the United States and CDC in Australasia. Proportionate Capital Expenditure was down $52 million, to $1,139 million, when comparing HY26 and HY25.

Jason Boyes, Infratil Chief Executive, said the infrastructure investor has successfully navigated through the noise of the market and regulatory challenges that faced its digital and renewables businesses in early 2025.

"Digital and renewable energy thematics are stronger than ever, with CDC and Longroad building strong earnings momentum on the back of new waves of demand. CDC has recently announced 140 megawatts of contracts and Longroad Energy reached financial close for 925MW of new projects.

"Gurīn Energy in Asia is another investment poised for growth and we're always scanning for other attractive new growth sectors. Our focus is on simplifying our current portfolio and reinvesting in areas with strong thematic drivers, to position Infratil for continued growth and shareholder returns," said Mr Boyes.

The total asset value of Infratil's investments grew by $735 million, to just over $19 billion, in the six-month period. Increases in CDC's property valuations and the sale of Manawa Energy resulted in a net parent surplus of $606 million, compared with a $247 million loss in HY25.

Sale of Fortysouth and Infratil Property announced Infratil has entered into a conditional agreement to sell its 20% shareholding in Fortysouth to InfraRed Capital Partners and Pantheon. The sale proceeds will be more than $200 million, in line with recent transaction multiples in the sector. The final amount is subject to the timing of settlement, with the transaction conditional only on Overseas Investment Office approval.

The transaction marks another step in Infratil's strategy to refine its portfolio for growth. "Fortysouth, while a high-quality business with strong leadership and customer relationships, represents a relatively small position in our portfolio. We're pleased to have reached an efficient agreement with existing holders, allowing for a seamless transition without the need for a broader sale process," said Mr Boyes.

Infratil acquired its interest in Fortysouth in 2022 when Vodafone NZ sold its passive mobile tower infrastructure to Infratil, Infrared Capital Partners and Northleaf Capital.

An unconditional sale of Infratil's property asset in Auckland has also been signed for $55 million. The asset was a legacy of Infratil's past bus company investment.

Divestments to fund growth opportunities
Today's Fortysouth and property sale announcements mean Infratil is now over halfway to its medium-term target of $1 billion of divestments, when including the previously announced sale of RetireAustralia. A strategic review of Infratil's 57% shareholding in Australian medical imaging business Qscan, last valued at NZ$487 million, was also announced in September.

Together, its recent increased investment in Contact Energy, the strong progress on divestments and growing operating cashflow underpins Infratil's significant financial flexibility to invest for future growth. Infratil expects to invest another A$250 million in CDC during the next six months, so CDC can accelerate its construction programme to meet the surging demand for capacity in Australia.

CDC's recent contract announcements mean it will deliver forecast revenue to achieve its target of doubling FY25 EBITDAF in FY27. "Customer demand for liquid cooled, high density capacity has reached a new high, and we are best positioned in the market to deliver against it," says CDC CEO Greg Boorer.

Longroad Energy is seeing benefit from data centres in the USA, where it is constructing its largest ever solar farm to support Meta's operations with clean energy. Earnings grew more than 2.5 times as it increased its total operational solar-battery-wind fleet to 3.5GW, with another 1.6GW under construction.

In Asia, Gurīn Energy is awaiting a decision on the export licence for Project Vanda, one of the largest solar-plus-battery projects in the world that will deliver solar energy from Indonesia to Singapore. A final investment decision on Project Vanda is targeted for around mid-2026. It recently acquired a new 303MW project in South Korea, adding to its potential 9GW development pipeline across a range of markets.

New Zealand business performance
Despite the weak New Zealand economy, Infratil's New Zealand businesses have been largely resilient.

Wellington Airport reported 4% EBITDAF growth with positive performance across commercial operations and continued cost discipline. International passengers were up 7% from the same period last year, while domestic passengers declined 5%.

One NZ increased revenue by $14 million from HY25 and is seeing positive trading momentum as it heads into the peak summer trading period. Revenues have lifted through a mix of pricing and service initiatives, including the One Wallet loyalty programme and SpaceX text services – with more than 6 million texts now sent via the exclusive satellite service.

Although RHCNZ Medical Imaging completed more scans than the prior year, a lower margin service mix and cost inflation meant EBITDAF was down slightly on the prior period. It is focused on a range of improvement initiatives for the second half. This includes creating a standalone teleradiology service provider that will include staff and assets from Infratil's Australian diagnostic imaging investment, Qscan. Qscan grew its EBITDAF by 11% from HY25, helped by a positive mix of imaging demand and pricing changes.

Interim dividend and FY26 guidance
Infratil confirmed it will pay a partially imputed interim dividend of 7.25 cents per share on 16 December. The dividend reinvestment plan will be available with a 2% discount applied to the strike price.

Guidance for Proportionate Operational EBITDAF of NZ$1,000 to $1,050 million is unchanged on a like-for-like basis. Adjusting for the announced divestments of RetireAustralia and Fortysouth and a modest tightening in the range results in an updated guidance range of $960 to $1,000 million.

Proportional Development EBITDAF guidance has been narrowed to expenditure of $85 to $100 million. Guidance for Proportionate capital expenditure is unchanged at NZ$2.2 to $2.6 billion.

Virtual investor briefing: from 11.00am (NZT) at https://infratil.com/for-investors/results/half-year-results-for-the-period-ended-30-september-2025/interim-results-announcement-september-2025/

IFT getting hammered today

Perhaps the issue is this:

"Guidance for Proportionate Operational EBITDAF of NZ$1,000 to $1,050 million is unchanged on a like-for-like basis. Adjusting for the announced divestments of RetireAustralia and Fortysouth and a modest tightening in the range results in an updated guidance range of $960 to $1,000 million."

They can say EBITDAF is "unchanged on a like-for-like basis" - but what the updated guidance range implies is that they are selling assets responsible for $40m-$50m EBITDAF

Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Nov 13, 2025, 01:30 PMPerhaps the issue is this:

"Guidance for Proportionate Operational EBITDAF of NZ$1,000 to $1,050 million is unchanged on a like-for-like basis. Adjusting for the announced divestments of RetireAustralia and Fortysouth and a modest tightening in the range results in an updated guidance range of $960 to $1,000 million."

They can say EBITDAF is "unchanged on a like-for-like basis" - but what the updated guidance range implies is that they are selling assets responsible for $40m-$50m EBITDAF

Part of IFT's business model has always been to buy, build and sell assets so I'm not too concerned about that. The numbers look ok in my view - hard to know why the market has responded negatively. Maybe it's talk of the AI / Database bubble, coupled with Trumps known antipathy towards renewables. ie big picture worries rather than the fundamentals of IFTS business, which as I say, look solid to me.
At a shade over $12, might be a buying opportunity perhaps?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 13, 2025, 01:38 PMAt a shade over $12, might be a buying opportunity perhaps?

IFT SP likely to drift below $12.00 in the short term IMO.

(Later edit - $NZ11.85 ish after ASX opens....... the tree is being shaken.)

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 14, 2025, 07:19 AMIFT SP likely to drift below $12.00 in the short term IMO.

(Later edit - $NZ11.85 ish after ASX opens....... the tree is being shaken.)

Yep, right you are LF. Holding back for now, but very tempted...

Jenny Ruth started her Friday piece with this " Looking at the Infratil first-half results, I was reminded of what the former Brierley Investments had used to look like just before investors lost patience,...."

Don'think she was suggesting Infratil will go the same way (better quality assets etc etc' but a spooky thought all the same

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 14, 2025, 03:40 PMJenny Ruth started her Friday piece with this " Looking at the Infratil first-half results, I was reminded of what the former Brierley Investments had used to look like just before investors lost patience,...."

Don'think she was suggesting Infratil will go the same way (better quality assets etc etc' but a spooky thought all the same..

I think holders who read/attended the latest IFT investors presentation will be pretty relaxed at the current tree shaking going on. For some it provides an opportunity to buy more IFT.

That said, there is a bit of concern around the world about AI being over-hyped and many don't understand IFT's  positioning and so there is some short term vulnerability.

The market also concerned that if IFT is selling $1 billion in assets that produce revenue..... how/when will that revenue be replaced? To them future revenue is a concern that was made worse when IFT didn't provide an earnings upgrade.


So really IFT nothing like Brierley.... but hey Jenny don't let facts get in the road of a good story!

QuoteSo really IFT nothing like Brierley.... but hey Jenny don't let facts get in the road of a good story!

Actually zhere eez one theeng een common between BIL and IFT.
Ze respective Chairmen of ze two  companies, both do not have knighthoods!

RB

Latest news from IFT...... they say IFT shares undervalued.... NTA circa $15.50 per share

So IFT SP at close today $11.86 trading at a 23% discount to NTA??

Judge for yourself from their latest update.....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/463909/attachment/458291/463909-458291.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 03, 2025, 06:46 PMLatest news from IFT...... they say IFT shares undervalued.... NTA circa $15.50 per share

So IFT SP at close today $11.86 trading at a 23% discount to NTA??

Judge for yourself from their latest update.....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/463909/attachment/458291/463909-458291.pdf

As a holder I like the investments but really dislike the incentive fee - $265 m pending according to the announcement. The discount to Net Asset Value probably justified by the super aggressive Morrison fee structure, but good fundamentals behind key CDC and Longroad investments.

Quote from: Mos on Dec 03, 2025, 07:09 PMAs a holder I like the investments but really dislike the incentive fee - $265 m pending according to the announcement.

Easy to criticise this fee, however what is the alternative management scenario and associated costs that you would propose to manage a company so well placed in such crucial industries such as Data Centres, Renewable Energy and key utilities in countries such as the USA, Europe, Asia and Australia?

I expect the Board at IFT spend considerable time and effort debating the same Question.

IFT SP being hit by uncertainty surrounding this news and possibilities of another cap raise.

(Behind a paywall but you get the gist)

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/cdc-data-centres-preps-5b-debt-package-eyes-equity-raising-20251215-p5nnsg

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 18, 2025, 10:57 AMIFT SP being hit by uncertainty surrounding this news and possibilities of another cap raise.

(Behind a paywall but you get the gist)

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/cdc-data-centres-preps-5b-debt-package-eyes-equity-raising-20251215-p5nnsg

CDC seeking a $4-5b package, on top of the $4.4 billion net debt already on their books. 

"In addition to the debt, CDC will require an equity injection from its three shareholders, Infratil, Future Fund and Commonwealth Superannuation Scheme, in the next 12 months which the trio are understood to be supportive of."

With those kind of figures, it's no wonder there's some "uncertainty" in the market with IFT! 

Lot of uncertainty in the tech sector in the US especially around the value of A.I. companies and data center build-out too.  People need to ensure they fully understand IFT's highly concentrated position in this field.  Its not the more rounded well diversified infrastructure fund it once was. 

Quote from: Basil on Dec 18, 2025, 11:28 AMLot of uncertainty in the tech sector in the US especially around the value of A.I. companies and data center build-out too.  People need to ensure they fully understand IFT's highly concentrated position in this field.  Its not the more rounded well diversified infrastructure fund it once was. 

It's all about uncertainty IMO - Markets don't like it.

However saying IFT is "Highly concentrated" in Data Centres is perhaps a tab misleading. The word 'concentrated' means "wholly directed to one thing".

IFT is well positioned in many sectors such as renewable energy (Longroad, Gurin Energy, Gallileo, Mint Renewables, Contact) and more.

In addition, the CDC capital need has been signalled by IFT for a long time, and likely accounts for the $250 mill IFT has allocated to CDC in 2026. IFT has also committed $100 mill to "Clearvision ventures" in 2026. While at the same time IFT is committed to asset sales of $1 Bill ( eg Retire Australia - sold and Qscan - under negotiation.)

That said, the market doesn't like uncertainty and there is a need for IFT to update the market around this 'news' report.

(Disc Happy to hold IFT as part of a well balanced portfolio.)

Fair enough.  I accept "highly concentrated" is not the best way to describe it.  $7.7 Billion of $19 Billion of assets as at the half year report
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/462548/attachment/456583/462548-456583.pdf
Going forward, call it say, approximately half their fund's assets after the planned divestments of other assets and further investment in CDC planned.

IFT : Average target Price of 8 analysts $14.02

( plus NTA worth north of $16.00 per share some say.....    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/465462)

Just saying.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 06, 2026, 07:28 AMIFT : Average target Price of 8 analysts $14.02

( plus NTA worth north of $16.00 per share some say.....    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/465462)

Just saying.

Share price hasn't been behaving itself of late

Over optimistic broker guesses or a wise market ....just saying

From Marketscreener

Screenshot 2026-01-06 132233.png

Nice chart Winner. Thanks for sharing.

Seems the chart is also saying buying the dips is a smart way to go.

IFT -- Price has slipped out of the rising channel twice as failed retests of channel round trip (over jump/under jump) matching time cycle events, next test of channel midline looks to be on or around earnings 14th May again matching time cycle event.
IFT_2026-01-06_17-53-37.png

With USA renewable energy generation costs such as solar & wind power amongst the cheapest, this news could be good for energy cost efficient suppliers such as Longroad & CDC .

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-moves-tech-giants-pay-023341234.html

Interesting times.

This article well worth reading....""Turning AI disruption into Telco's growth engine"

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/turning-ai-disruption-into-telcos-growth-engine

IFT would seem to be well positioned.....(but is SPK??)

Extracts

" .....Over the past five years, telcos have lagged nearly every other technology sector in both revenue growth and total shareholder return. (See Exhibit 1.) Investors are discounting the sector, with enterprise multiples of just five to seven––far below those of data center and cloud providers, which command multiples closer to 20. This valuation gap underscores the belief among investors that without fundamental change, telcos risk being left behind in the digital value chain......

"....Growing nearly 10% annually, the data center market is projected to exceed $400 billion by 2028, driven by surging demand for high-density computing and AI workloads. Hyperscalers such as AWS, Microsoft, and Google are investing tens of billions of dollars to build AI-optimized data centers, while players such as OpenAI and Nvidia are focusing on purpose-built AI clusters.

The new infrastructure race is as much about sovereignty as scale. More than 100 data localization measures across 40 countries now regulate where and how data can move. Governments are seeking residency, transparency, and regulatory-grade AI inference, and increasingly favor neutral and sovereign infrastructure providers to deliver it. Taken together, these trends mark a structural shift in who holds the keys to digital infrastructure and who is trusted to secure it....."


" ... By 2030, leading telcos will no longer be defined by their networks alone but also by their role as intelligence orchestrators across connectivity, data, and cloud."

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 24, 2026, 12:21 PMThis article well worth reading....""Turning AI disruption into Telco's growth engine"

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/turning-ai-disruption-into-telcos-growth-engine

IFT would seem to be well positioned.....(but is SPK??)

Extracts

" .....Over the past five years, telcos have lagged nearly every other technology sector in both revenue growth and total shareholder return. (See Exhibit 1.) Investors are discounting the sector, with enterprise multiples of just five to seven––far below those of data center and cloud providers, which command multiples closer to 20. This valuation gap underscores the belief among investors that without fundamental change, telcos risk being left behind in the digital value chain......

"....Growing nearly 10% annually, the data center market is projected to exceed $400 billion by 2028, driven by surging demand for high-density computing and AI workloads. Hyperscalers such as AWS, Microsoft, and Google are investing tens of billions of dollars to build AI-optimized data centers, while players such as OpenAI and Nvidia are focusing on purpose-built AI clusters.

The new infrastructure race is as much about sovereignty as scale. More than 100 data localization measures across 40 countries now regulate where and how data can move. Governments are seeking residency, transparency, and regulatory-grade AI inference, and increasingly favor neutral and sovereign infrastructure providers to deliver it. Taken together, these trends mark a structural shift in who holds the keys to digital infrastructure and who is trusted to secure it....."


" ... By 2030, leading telcos will no longer be defined by their networks alone but also by their role as intelligence orchestrators across connectivity, data, and cloud."

NZ telcos went infrastructure light to enable high shareholder returns (e.g. selling the tower networks and making large one off distributions) - they are in no position currently to be able to get into building data centers in any serious manner.

The tail winds for IFT (and CDC) just keep getting stronger. Only a matter of time before IFT is significantly re-rated IMO.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/10/business/google-one-hundred-year-bond

".....Now, let's just underline that for a second: Google, a nearly $4 trillion public company with more than $73 billion in free cash flow annually, is turning to debt markets to raise even more money. That's because even Google's $126 billion cash on hand starts to look pretty paltry when the company says it plans to double its AI spending this year – to a staggering $185 billion."

Latest newsletter for those interested

https://infratil.com/news/infratil-newsletter-february-2026/infratil-newsletter-february-2026/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2026%20Infratil%20February%20Newsletter&utm_content=2026%20Infratil%20February%20Newsletter+CID_4f9bc9a1a9a94d99946bc5949598c21c&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=here

"Markets have continued to focus on AI-related news in the short time since our early
December newsletter. This focus drove significant market volatility in the last few weeks
and at the time of writing Infratil's share price is some 6% below the NZ$11.86 close
when we published that newsletter. This represents an even larger gap to our 30
September 2025 net asset value of $15.55 per share."

Lower end of EBITDAF guidance from CDC for FY 2026, but upgrade for FY2027 it seems....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/469924

Infratil had previously guided that CDC's FY25 EBITDAF would double to approximately A$660 million in FY27. Higher formal FY27 EBITDAF guidance of A$680 million to $720 million is now provided based on the updated outlook for delivery of existing contracted capacity and the expectation for continued strong demand.
 
 FY26 EBITDAF is expected to be at the lower end of the current guidance range of A$390 million to A$400 million, reflecting the timing of existing contracted capacity that has been weighted toward the back end of FY26.

Full CDC investor update here;

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/469924/attachment/465353/469924-465353.pdf

Market seems to like it.

Good week for Infratil, up 10%

I thought IFT would be a fairly safe bet in the current environment. Energy and data seem like good options.

Onwards and upwards....... IFT proving to be a good defensive stock

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/470527

CDC's valuation increased by 7.2% during the quarter, reflecting continued growth in CDC's pipeline of operating and planned capacity, and the successful completion of a A$500 million equity raise (with Infratil contributing A$250 million) to support acceleration of the development pipeline.
 
 Excluding the equity raise, the valuation increased by 3.5% on a like‑for‑like basis.
 
 The 31 March 2026 independent valuation of CDC increased by A$1.0 billion from 31 December 2025, to A$15.0 billion, reflecting the mid-point of the assessed valuation range of A$14.1 billion to A$16.0 billion.
 
 On this basis, Infratil's 49.72% interest in CDC is valued at A$7,454 million, up A$500 million from A$6,954 million at 31 December 2025.

On the other channel Kiora has posed a question to Ai asking which of IFT or Berkshire Hathaway has been the best investment since IFT's listing in 1994.

Here's Ai's answer as posted by Kiora.

Yes, over the past 30 years (since its listing in 1994), Infratil has generally been a better performing investment than Berkshire Hathaway in terms of annualised returns.

www.intelligentinvestor.com.auwww.intelligentinvestor.com.au
Infratil (IFT): Has delivered an average annual return to shareholders of approximately 18.7% to 19% over the 30-year period ending in 2024.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK): Warren Buffett's investment vehicle has returned about 13% per year over the same period, according to an analysis.

www.intelligentinvestor.com.auwww.intelligentinvestor.com.au +1

While Berkshire Hathaway is widely considered one of the best long-term investments in history over a 50+ year timeframe, Infratil's focused infrastructure strategy has delivered higher annualised returns over the last three decades.

Key Findings:

Extraordinary Growth: A $1,000 investment in Infratil's 1994 initial public offering (IPO) would have grown to over $200,000 by late 2025.

Recent Performance: Infratil's strong performance has been boosted in recent years by its focus on data centres, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure (such as CDC Data Centres and One NZ).

Total Shareholder Return: Infratil's Total Shareholder Return (TSR), which includes dividends and reinvestment, was particularly strong, showing over 190% over a recent 5-year period.

Both companies are lauded for their longevity and management, but Infratil's specific focus on infrastructure asset management has allowed it to outperform Berkshire's more diversified conglomerate model over this specific 30-year timeframe.

More progress for IFT

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/471287/attachment/466879/471287-466879.pdf

With more than 90% of CDC's revenue derived from investment-grade rated customers and a
weighted average lease expiry of 28.4 years (including options), the company offers a level of
earnings stability and customer quality unmatched in the Australian market. The Moody's
rating highlights the company's ability to deliver long-term, contracted earnings while
executing a disciplined growth strategy.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/471288/attachment/466882/471288-466882.pdf

Latest IFT news FYI

IFT SP holding up well and showing strength as it chases the all time  high of $12.90. Bodes well for the mkt update due 26 May.

I like this quote from  Allfromacell on the other channel noting the strong recent numbers (latest FY updates), particularly from Alphabet and this quote from Chamath Palihapitiyay on X


"Money is starting to flow downhill - a critical observation for the next few years.

The Mags may make all the money but they are spending it faster than they can make it.

Their free cash flows are cratering.

Best to follow the money and see who's getting it. In this case, it's following the AI trade and, more specifically, the data center and power economies.

Make money from capital light business models like ads and software, then redirect it to asset heavy, traditional infrastructure companies.

A complete reversal from the last 20 years is underway."

It seems the market is beginning to see the potential  of IFT's strengths in AI, data centres and renewable energy.

This negative sounding story is likely a good win for CDC and IFT....

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/594164/amazon-takes-45m-hit-abandons-planned-west-auckland-data-centre

Quote from: Left Field on May 05, 2026, 11:26 AMThis negative sounding story is likely a good win for CDC and IFT....

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/594164/amazon-takes-45m-hit-abandons-planned-west-auckland-data-centre

And as predicted..... this announcement just released in ASX

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-cdc-signs-555mw-data-centre-contract-with-us-customer.9141550/

An additional $A 1 billion EBITAF in 2028

With today's announcement, CDC's total contracted capacity exceeds 1GW and EBITDAF[2] is
expected to exceed A$1 billion in FY28. When fully deployed, CDC's total contracted capacity would
deliver annualised EBITDAF of approximately $2 billion.

IFT SP on a roll and still a $3.00 discount to NTA

That's that sweet sweet AUD too, none of these shit coins (NZD).

I wish they would float a bit of CDC. Would love to own it without paying the Morrison tax.

WOW! Over $14.00 on NZX opening trades today.

Going to be interesting to see the action on the ASX later today.

IFT great to have at over 20% of my portfolio.

Quote from: Left Field on May 06, 2026, 10:09 AMWOW! Over $14.00 on NZX opening trades today.

Going to be interesting to see the action on the ASX later today.

IFT great to have at over 20% of my portfolio.

The market really seems to like the news of the latest CDC data contract. Maybe it has helped to allay concerns over whether the growth in data-centres is sustainable. Could this be the moment when the market finally "gets" IFT's potential?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 06, 2026, 10:50 AMThe market really seems to like the news of the latest CDC data contract. Maybe it has helped to allay concerns over whether the growth in data-centres is sustainable. Could this be the moment when the market finally "gets" IFT's potential?

"getting" potential?

I assume this means that the markets are agreeing that the potential is safe and the risks won't happen? That's the time when shoeshine boys give sharerecommendations.

Otherwise - while IFT is in a rather secure industry, their PE assumes incredible earnings growth rates to pay back their investors. And by the way - whats their strategy for the AI bubble bursting?

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 06, 2026, 11:28 AM"getting" potential?

I assume this means that the markets are agreeing that the potential is safe and the risks won't happen? That's the time when shoeshine boys give sharerecommendations.

Otherwise - while IFT is in a rather secure industry, their PE assumes incredible earnings growth rates to pay back their investors. And by the way - whats their strategy for the AI bubble bursting?

Quite often there's a tipping or inflection point where the market gets on board with the growth strategy of a company. It realises the potential of that growth. I'm not saying that is the case here - yet -  but the longer data-centres continue to show increasing demand for their services then the more re-assured the market becomes.

The market is a fickle beast though, which is why IFT's brand exposure to a range of infrastructure makes it one of the most secure investments around.
 
AI is here to stay - I don't see it bursting. Too many applications in the real world that has so many positive benefits. A lot of AI firms themselves might go bust but that isn't a worry for IFT. The core demand for AI (and the datacenter "engine") will only continue to increase IMO. 

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 06, 2026, 10:50 AMCould this be the moment when the market finally "gets" IFT's potential?

The simple answer is YES.

The market fears concerning AI likely related to others in the industry (particularly in the USA) and applying these fears to CDC & IFT in the relatively stable economies of NZ & Aus,  was simply wrong for many reasons, for example;

1.) CDC have considerable 'first mover' advantages. Huge land banks and a team of builders and contractors who are delivering on time and under budget.
2.) CDC is one of very few data centre providers with 'green' renewable energy credentials. (Many of the USA DC's plan to use gas generated power!)
3.) CDC is unique in using circulating radiator water cooling. Others use evaporated water cooling which wastes billions of litres of water.
4.) IFT is using conservative BBB rated capital funding to finance CDC.
5.) Based on the revenue being generated for CDC from contracts as announced today, IFT said they could spend an additional $A 400 mill in Capex pa  and not exceed their self imposed limits.
6.) CDC have more major lease contracts in the pipeline and hope to close another one by the time of the 26 May update.
7.) The average lease span for CDC's data centres is 28 years.

etc etc...... I could go on, but that's enough from me!

Quote from: Left Field on May 06, 2026, 04:28 PMThe simple answer is YES.

The market fears concerning AI likely related to others in the industry (particularly in the USA) and applying these fears to CDC & IFT in the relatively stable economies of NZ & Aus,  was simply wrong for many reasons, for example;

1.) CDC have considerable 'first mover' advantages. Huge land banks and a team of builders and contractors who are delivering on time and under budget.
2.) CDC is one of very few data centre providers with 'green' renewable energy credentials. (Many of the USA DC's plan to use gas generated power!)
3.) CDC is unique in using circulating radiator water cooling. Others use evaporated water cooling which wastes billions of litres of water.
4.) IFT is using conservative BBB rated capital funding to finance CDC.
5.) Based on the revenue being generated for CDC from contracts as announced today, IFT said they could spend an additional $A 400 mill in Capex pa  and not exceed their self imposed limits.
6.) CDC have more major lease contracts in the pipeline and hope to close another one by the time of the 26 May update.
7.) The average lease span for CDC's data centres is 28 years.

etc etc...... I could go on, but that's enough from me!

I think your point 5 about additional capex was actually the following: CDC is forecasting growing EBITDA at approx $400m each year going forward, and using the moodys approved ratio of 10x, that would enable $4 BILLION in additional capex each year.

Note from For Bar this morning

IFT has announced CDC has signed a 555MW data centre contract. This is the step change in contracted capacity CDC alluded to at its recent investor day, but the size of this contract (~2.5x CDC's current billing capacity) is meaningfully above our expectations. Additionally, CDC has provided total contracted EBITDA for the first time, at ~A$2bn (to be achieved by March 2029); it is well above our prior FY30 estimate of A$1.4bn. Current demand is incredibly strong for data centres, and CDC indicated: (1) pricing has held up well with demand outstripping supply; (2) it is in further conversations for similar meaningful contracts; and (3) it is increasingly able to compete for global compute capacity.

CDC has now largely derisked its EBITDA path from ~A$0.7bn in FY27 to >A$2bn in FY30. With CDC's track record of winning large contracts, we believe its earnings risk remains to the upside. CDC's implied contracted EV/EBITDA multiple remains below data centre peers despite its faster growth and superior returns. Retain OUTPERFORM with an increased target price. $17.50 (was $14.40)

Well done holders

Yes very well done to holders.  I had a stake in IFT but got bored and sold too early :-(

$15!! You may be right LF. Onwards and Upwards!

Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on May 06, 2026, 08:54 PMI think your point 5 about additional capex was actually the following: CDC is forecasting growing EBITDA at approx $400m each year going forward, and using the moodys approved ratio of 10x, that would enable $4 BILLION in additional capex each year.

Just goes to show your use of AI to take notes is much better than my ailing hearing!!

Plus your corrected figure likely to be revised upwards again on the next update.

Nice to be corrected with such an upside! 

Thanks.

F.Barr have raised their target SP to $17.50

Onwards & upwards......happy to have IFT as circa 23% of my portfolio.

Yes, I have a similar exposure. I really think they have a very long runway with CDC. Long, long term hold.

IFT see's better value for it's $ by reducing it's stake in Contact Energy

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/472904

Infratil Limited ("Infratil") (NZX/ASX:IFT) has agreed to sell 53,531,358 ordinary shares in Contact Energy Limited ("Contact") (NZX/ASX:CEN), comprising 5.0% of Contact's issued share capital, via a fully underwritten block trade. The sale is at a price of NZ$9.25 per ordinary share, generating expected gross proceeds of approximately NZ$495.17 million, and is expected to complete on 25 May 2026.

Impressive results.......Forward projections exciting. Longroad and CDC are nailing it.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/473284

Infratil delivers 11% earnings lift and confirms strong growth outlook
 
 • Proportionate operational EBITDAF[1] up 11% to NZ$989 million (FY25: NZ$895 million)
 • Proportionate capital expenditure up 17% to NZ$2.7 billion (FY25: NZ$2.3 million)
 • Total asset value up 13% to NZ$20.6 billion (FY25: NZ$18.3 billion)
 • Over NZ$600 million of assets divested to focus on larger-scale growth opportunities
 • Net parent surplus of NZ$550 million (FY25: loss of NZ$295 million)
 • Final dividend of 13.65cps unimputed; total FY26 dividend of 20.9cps
 • Guidance for FY27 Proportionate operational EBITDAF (excluding corporate costs) to increase 21% at the mid-point vs FY26 $1,114 million, on a like-for-like basis


Longroad Energy's EBITDAF increased 170% to US$121 million in FY26 and is forecast to grow strongly as more generation enters operation. It has lifted its solar and battery projects under construction to a record 2GW in FY26 which combined with the 3.5GW already in operation, will deliver total generation capacity equivalent to about half of New Zealand's current capacity.
 
 With electricity demand in the USA projected to increase by about 30% to 50% by 2040, Infratil has agreed to provide a further US$300 million to support Longroad's acceleration over the next two years. The business is targeting US$1 billion run-rate EBITDAF by CY29/30, based on lifting its development cadence to ~2GW annually. This is underpinned by the recent acquisition of a very large scale ~2.8GW solar and battery development project, which is subject to regulatory approvals.

Guidance for FY27:
 • Proportionate Operational EBITDAF of NZ$1,300 to $1,400 million (excluding Corporate Costs) up 21% at the mid-point on FY26 on a like-for-like basis
 • Corporate costs of NZ$150 to $170 million
 • Proportionate Development Spend of NZ$95 to $110 million
 • Proportionate capital expenditure of NZ$3,800 to $4,400 million

Excellent result which justifies market confidence (finally) in IFT and should see another surge in the SP. FY27 guidance shows the fruits of their capital expenditure coming on stream. Very happy holder!

looking like a strong open. 

Quote from: HAWKDOG on May 26, 2026, 09:56 AMlooking like a strong open. 

lol nope

Quote from: HAWKDOG on May 26, 2026, 10:18 AMlol nope

Yeah, bit strange that SP is down $1 on what looks like a very good set of results. Maybe a bit of profit taking initially but I must be missing something. Or could be a buying opportunity perhaps?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 26, 2026, 01:39 PMYeah, bit strange that SP is down $1 on what looks like a very good set of results. Maybe a bit of profit taking initially but I must be missing something. Or could be a buying opportunity perhaps?

IFT's SP is up over 40% so far this calendar year..... so yes some profit taking.

Also if I recall correctly, the last big announcement re CDC hinted at another big contract by 26 May and there may be short term disappointment re that not being announced.....yet.

For long term holders, no worries. The FY27 projected 22% revenue increase looks good and likely understated.

Quote from: Left Field on May 26, 2026, 02:18 PMIFT's SP is up over 40% so far this calendar year..... so yes some profit taking.

Also if I recall correctly, the last big announcement re CDC hinted at another big contract by 26 May and there may be short term disappointment re that not being announced.....yet.

For long term holders, no worries. The FY27 projected 22% revenue increase looks good and likely understated.

Reading through the words of Jason he hinted strongly that the entire 1.6GW pipeline will be contracted and we'll soon be hearing about further acceleration or extending the pipeline for growth delivered early next decade.

I think some concerns of the market are a bit spooked by the scale of capex.

A bit to unpack in that update. Aggressive plan. Points that stood out to me...
- CDC (49.7% owned) EBITDAF forecast to increase from $A393m in FY26 to $A1b+ by FY28 and then $A2b based on current contracted demand when 1GW of capacity fully deployed. Current pipeline taking CDC to 2.9 GW suggests EBITDAF could grow to $A5.8b when current pipeline built out and operational. Wow and gulp!
- Longroad (42.5% owned) Opco EBITDAF forecast to increase from $US367m in FY26 to $US1b+ by FY29. Plus management commentary in the Q&A's on the new idea to use their energy builds to supply their own/partners data centres "We make $70,000 of EBITDA per megawatt roughly from a Long Road Energy project. That's pretty much what our averages say. You would be making more like $1 million of EBITDA on a data center if you added that to it. So, pretty interesting kind of step up in the NPV that's potentially available to Long Road or its partners. That's how we're thinking about it."
- Guidance proportionate capex of $NZ 3.8b to $4.4b in FY27 alone. Not sitting on their hands!
- Pretty much every asset they own part from CDC, Longroad, Gurin Project Vanda could be up for sale to fund energy & data centre growth and create a more focused narrative for capital markets. Good bye Wellington Airport, Contact, RHCNZ, and other smaller businesses that don't fit the narrative and/or aren't scalable to say $1b+ EBITDA in pretty short order?

I don't think we have ever seen something this ambitious from a NZ listed company. Will be an interesting and quite possibly very rewarding white knuckle ride over the next 5-10 years. Massive value creation or risky overreach? Personally, will continue to hold and buckle up for the ride.

 

There is execution risk and the investment profile is certainly more risky, but it's strongly mitigated by very long term contracts at both CDC and Longroad.

I feel a lot more comfortable knowing how much of Jason's Bs own money is invested. I'll be watching his disclosures carefully.

Quote from: Mos on May 26, 2026, 07:48 PMA bit to unpack in that update. Aggressive plan. Points that stood out to me...
- CDC (49.7% owned) EBITDAF forecast to increase from $A393m in FY26 to $A1b+ by FY28 and then $A2b based on current contracted demand when 1GW of capacity fully deployed. Current pipeline taking CDC to 2.9 GW suggests EBITDAF could grow to $A5.8b when current pipeline built out and operational. Wow and gulp!
- Longroad (42.5% owned) Opco EBITDAF forecast to increase from $US367m in FY26 to $US1b+ by FY29. Plus management commentary in the Q&A's on the new idea to use their energy builds to supply their own/partners data centres "We make $70,000 of EBITDA per megawatt roughly from a Long Road Energy project. That's pretty much what our averages say. You would be making more like $1 million of EBITDA on a data center if you added that to it. So, pretty interesting kind of step up in the NPV that's potentially available to Long Road or its partners. That's how we're thinking about it."
- Guidance proportionate capex of $NZ 3.8b to $4.4b in FY27 alone. Not sitting on their hands!
- Pretty much every asset they own part from CDC, Longroad, Gurin Project Vanda could be up for sale to fund energy & data centre growth and create a more focused narrative for capital markets. Good bye Wellington Airport, Contact, RHCNZ, and other smaller businesses that don't fit the narrative and/or aren't scalable to say $1b+ EBITDA in pretty short order?

I don't think we have ever seen something this ambitious from a NZ listed company. Will be an interesting and quite possibly very rewarding white knuckle ride over the next 5-10 years. Massive value creation or risky overreach? Personally, will continue to hold and buckle up for the ride.

 

Good summation there, Mos. The numbers are hard to get one's head around. Scary in terms of the level of investment required but then so are the returns - scary in a good way.
I go back a way with IFT and it has been my best, most consistent and now easily my biggest investment. Never thought about selling and have followed the tried and true "buy in the dips" method. Seems to work. Incredible that it was only $3.30 10 years ago!

That capex of $NZ 3.8b to $4.4b in FY27 is mind bogling stuff......it does my head in trying to imagine what the resulting NTA figs and contracted revenue will mean in SP appreciation etc.

Like LL IFT is my biggest holding and I'm strapping in for the ride.

(Also v happy to see FPH doing so well today as well.)

Good points LL and LF. 9.3% of portfolio for me and generated strong returns over the past decade as you have experienced. will probably get to 20%+ of portfolio without me buying another share over the next 5 years if IFT gets anywhere close to achieving their growth plans and EBITDAF targets! Buckled up.

I see no reason to sell - I was only commenting as the bid was quite high pre market - but the bids must of all got pulled.

Wow! Huge IFT month end sale going on at close today.

6.4 mill shares at VWAP around $15.71 when I looked.

This included 2 mill @ traded at $14.67 ! ( how does that even happen?? - index rebalancing related party sales??)

Anyway's onwards and upwards from $15.70 I suspect.

Good to see the CFO buying up at current prices....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/473730/attachment/469877/473730-469877.pdf

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 02, 2026, 02:45 PMGood to see the CFO buying up at current prices....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/473730/attachment/469877/473730-469877.pdf

Yep, bought another couple of thousand myself. Markets got a bit of jitters about the increase in capex. Not justified in my view, hence good buying at current price.

Good sign for Infratil per herald this morning...

Google chief executive Sundar Pichai told investors last month that the company is "compute-constrained in the near term", meaning it cannot build the necessary infrastructure fast enough to meet demand.

I attended an IFT shareholders meeting today and was amazed to hear these details of Longroad's USA energy builds.

Importantly for IFT shareholders; These energy builds are already contracted (in order to gain USA Tax credits)  the land has been aquired, and either building has commenced or orders placed for the necessary equipment. In addition the resultant renewable energy is also already contracted out once production starts.

In short, Longroad have contracted USA renewable energy contracts for 13.7 GW of electricity by 2030......that's 2.5 GW more than the total electricity being produced in NZ currently.

To put this into context;

By 2027 Longroad will be producing more electricity than Mercury, Contact energy and Genesis combined.

By 2028 Longroad will be producing more electricity than Mercury, Contact energy, Genesis and Meridian combined.

By 2029 Lonroad will be producing 2.5 GW more electricity than the total currently being produced in NZ

By 2030 Longroad will be producing  a total of 13.7GW of renewable electricity.

IFT is not only an impressive data centre play, it is  also a huge renewable energy play.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 08, 2026, 03:11 PMI attended an IFT shareholders meeting today and was amazed to hear these details of Longroad's USA energy builds.

Importantly for IFT shareholders; These energy builds are already contracted (in order to gain USA Tax credits)  the land has been aquired, and either building has commenced or orders placed for the necessary equipment. In addition the resultant renewable energy is also already contracted out once production starts.

In short, Longroad have contracted USA renewable energy contracts for 13.7 GW of electricity by 2030......that's 2.5 GW more than the total electricity being produced in NZ currently.

To put this into context;

By 2027 Longroad will be producing more electricity than Mercury, Contact energy and Genesis combined.

By 2028 Longroad will be producing more electricity than Mercury, Contact energy, Genesis and Meridian combined.

By 2029 Lonroad will be producing 2.5 GW more electricity than the total currently being produced in NZ

By 2030 Longroad will be producing  a total of 13.7GW of renewable electricity.

IFT is not only an impressive data centre play, it is  also a huge renewable energy play.

Mind boggling numbers. Thanks for reporting back.

As you say, IFT may have committed the capex - which is huge in itself - but the expenditure is contractually covered before they start building. ie very little risk. US electricity demand for datacentres and domestic/industrial electrification is projected to increase by 30-50% by 2040. Big users are falling over themselves trying to nail down long term contracts. Longroads's EBITDAF was up 170% last year and the projections are for even bigger growth this year.
 
Surprised to see the SP down today, as it goes ex-dividend tomorrow. Strange beast that Mr Market!
 

2 new directors for IFT providing increased Australian presence.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/474677

Leaked Anthropic docs reveal plans to buy 1.4GW of Aussie DC capacity

Should it go down this route, Infratil-owned CDC Centre is expected to come out with the lion's share at about 500MW, sources said.

AFR tonight

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/475645 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/475645)

CDC's independent valuation increased by 23.6% during the quarter to a mid-point of A$18.5 billion.

In NBR today, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank has purchased 15% of Morrison's plus an initial agreement to invest $US 500 Million with Morrisons.

Likely will help fund some key IFT initiatives in Data Centres, Renewable Energy etc.

More power to Morrisons.

I don't pay much heed to Brokers recommendations, however when I heard  that Forsyth Barr have just upgraded IFT's target SP to $18.90 with an "outperform" rating......I couldn't help smiling. :)

Onwards and upwards.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 11, 2026, 08:18 AM....Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank has purchased 15% of Morrison's plus an initial agreement to invest $US 500 Million with Morrisons.

Likely will help fund some key IFT initiatives in Data Centres, Renewable Energy etc.

More power to Morrisons.

And where to now for Morrisons? Here's Paul McBeth's thoughts.....

https://www.thebottomline.co.nz/paul-mcbeth-morrisons-next-evolution/

IFT/CDC/CEN in discussions regarding proposed new 250 MW data centre at Stratford. Taranaki ... early days.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/477535/attachment/474145/477535-474145.pdf