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One of these Private Equity Fund floats which came down since IPO like a bag of bricks. Too much debt, mediocre management, board firmly asleep - you name it, they used to have it.

Still - it appears the new CEO is not that bad as many thought, they got their Australian adventure under control and SP seems to have found some (though quite low) floor. They lost market share in NZ, but are still largest glass supplier for the NZ building industry. Hard to finish houses without putting glass into the windows, isn't it?

While it appears that not all of their customers like them - how bad can they do in the middle of a resource constrained building boom with some extra glass in the warehouse?

Their chair (Peter Griffiths) bought recently some more shares. I guess this must be a good sign, isn't it?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/395200/374505.pdf

Funny, I started looking at this when I saw the announcement from the chair this morning.

Always encouraging when you see insider buying.  I went back to the last annual report and thought initially directors and the ceo had bugger all shares. I guess they paid considerably more than they are now. But $17k is not a big endorsement.

I'm thinking a risky proposition with increased debt, some cash which is good.  A capital raise is just around the corner unless they sell the NZ or Aust operations.  Would have to be heavily discounted. I'm thinking It's "touch and go" if they even survive, all they need is a couple of bad quarters  and that cash is going to be used up.

The increased inventory might be legitimate but it might also be increased damaged stock. I mentioned some time ago on another site that we had used Metro glass for the rebuild of our house and over half of it had to be returned due to quality issues. Some of the panels had to be replaced three times. What concerned me was that these were obvious scratches and marks that weren't picked up in the factory, or picked up by quality control and weren't picked up by the installer placing it in the house.

So I'm a little sceptical but I can see the attraction when you see Peter Wells buying and the chair a small amount but is that enough. 

For me it's a no.

BP and shareguy sort of say the Chair buying is a good sign (maybe)

I often wonder if insiders buying really means much at all -- like that Liz over at Oceania is the best part of a quarter a million bucks down on her 'inside' purchases, even though she bought heaps at 79 cents and even some at 56 cents.

Like many of us maybe they buy and hope they'll make a profit .... one day

Take your point winner. To me it's a case of showing faith in the companys future prospects. What the market does is up to the market.  Certainly a lot more encouraging than if they were selling.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 12, 2022, 11:42 AMBP and shareguy sort of say the Chair buying is a good sign (maybe)

I often wonder if insiders buying really means much at all -- like that Liz over at Oceania is the best part of a quarter a million bucks down on her 'inside' purchases, even though she bought heaps at 79 cents and even some at 56 cents.

Like many of us maybe they buy and hope they'll make a profit .... one day

I am sure that's what they do.

I guess the theory is that of all market participants they have access to the best and most recent insider information. This does not mean that they will always be right (remember - nobody can predict the future), but at least should their rate of success be better than that of an outsider ...

But hey - maybe some of them use the time in board meetings just to check stocktalk, some other internet forum or to prepare for the next unrelated board meeting and in that case they would not know more about their company than we do?

Who knows?

Sold out my holding over a month ago - having slowly accumulated over several years, at a bit below break even.  Have been disappointed that even in the midst of a building boom they couldn't perform that well. New leader may make a difference, but still seems to be a lot of the old guard left.

Still good potential for a strong upside, but have thought that for some time, with no results.

Quote from: teabag on Jul 12, 2022, 12:27 PMSold out my holding over a month ago - having slowly accumulated over several years, at a bit below break even.  Have been disappointed that even in the midst of a building boom they couldn't perform that well. New leader may make a difference, but still seems to be a lot of the old guard left.

Still good potential for a strong upside, but have thought that for some time, with no results.

Good move.  This company has been a recidivist offender with lack of meaningful earnings in good times and consistently spending heaps on capex to modernize processing facilities to no real effect.  Despite having a huge share of the market they seem to have a systemic problem with being unable to perform for shareholders.    On the other hand staff, management and the directors seem to do okay for themselves.

A $17,000 purchase of shares is pathetic chump change...wake me up when an insider invests a minimum of $250,000 and not before.

MPG = serial underperformer, mainly due to the fact that they have to redo every second bit of glass.

Quote from: Cod on Jul 12, 2022, 01:07 PMMPG = serial underperformer, mainly due to the fact that they have to redo every second bit of glass.

You are saying that they have a 50% failure rate? That's an amazing number for a quite established enterprise. Please provide some evidence.

I would be interested what they do with all this broken glass - and where they hide it in their books?

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 12, 2022, 01:13 PMYou are saying that they have a 50% failure rate? That's an amazing number for a quite established enterprise. Please provide some evidence.

I would be interested what they do with all this broken glass - and where they hide it in their books?

I was being factious, it isn't 50% - but it's high, my son used to work at an aluminum joinery company, he stated that they always had to send MPG stuff back. Either it was the wrong size, covered in silicone, etc.

Quote from: Cod on Jul 12, 2022, 01:18 PMI was being factious, it isn't 50% - but it's high, my son used to work at an aluminum joinery company, he stated that they always had to send MPG stuff back. Either it was the wrong size, covered in silicone, etc.

OK - very funny.

Still - I guess I realize that there are always people moaning about companies with a large market share.

I used to work in development - and I've never seen engineers happy with the tools they were using ... the more they used them the more they complained. Good have been only the tools other organisations used, but better not talk with them to confirm that.

I guess the grass is as well always greener on the other side of the fence ... just ask any horse, sheep or cow :P ;

If you look at the economy - any large enough company has its chorus of habitual haters and moaners. Hardly anybody likes Microsoft (despite everybody using their products), nobody used to like Telecom NZ (despite their huge market share) ... I think there is even some sort of statistical law that anybody with a market share of above 50% must serve as well customers who are actively disliking the company and / or the product.

And yes, moaners have a reliable habit of exaggerating ... just ask any child complaining that all their friends get more pocket money than they do to list all these friends. Always works.

Given that MPG used to have something like 2/3rds of market share in NZ (and I think it is still well above 50% today) do I assume that the people buying from them are not all idiots, but buying because MPG provide the better and faster service or the only service in their location or the more reasonable price ...

Seriously - why would anybody go back to a company providing consistently lousy service, unless they are still better than their competitors? Maybe a worthwile discussion with your son ...

Just taking all this moaning with a huge amount of salt ... but hey, keep going - we need that to establish that MPG is still the market leader in NZ.

Quote from: Cod on Jul 12, 2022, 01:18 PMI was being factious, it isn't 50% - but it's high, my son used to work at an aluminum joinery company, he stated that they always had to send MPG stuff back. Either it was the wrong size, covered in silicone, etc.

Cod I have spoken to people in the trade 18 months ago albeit & had the same response apart from the 50% bit ,but they have a bad rep from the past and need to reverse this.
Takes a while to do of course hopefully they are addressing this poor quality rep
I was quite shocked because at the start of the building boom ! over covid I was looking to buy in but luckily all the bad rep from people in the trade not Investors  warned me off 

Quote from: Cod on Jul 12, 2022, 01:18 PMI was being factious, it isn't 50% - but it's high, my son used to work at an aluminum joinery company, he stated that they always had to send MPG stuff back. Either it was the wrong size, covered in silicone, etc.

Well, as indicated - it would be worthwhile to find out why the company your son works for is still ordering from MPG if they are so unhappy about the quality. Makes one wonder ...

But apart from that - here is the trendchart from MPG's Customer Satisfaction Surveys (source: 2022 annual report, page 7):

MPG Customersatisfaction.JPG

Looking at that trend - the overwhelming majority of their customers are clearly happy (8.1 out of 10 is a quite good rating). But obviously - there is always a number of people who are always unhappy, normally no matter who provides them a service.

I am glad they are taking heed and from the look of their mpg customer satisfaction survey things look to be Improving .
 I hope this translates into profits for the company & the eps becomes a plus & no reason it should not if the management  get their act together

Could be that customers are more satisfied because getting cheaper than anywhere else.  ???

Our other companies are equally pies.

Re customer satisfaction - wonder if they will have an updated one of these to show us

Deliveries / Lead Times pretty big in red .... same words in green a bit smaller (bigger the font the more the word used)

Quality pretty big in red .... but green Quality a bit bigger

Would have thought Deliveries Lead Time Quality were three of the more important service satisfaction measures

0000mpg.JPG

ASM addresses ...some good positive bits but general tone seems to be we're stil in difficult times but we are doing our best

Guess this bit means FY23 result not  going to be that good -

Given the levels of uncertainty that are prevalent, we will not be providing a full year guidance at this early stage and will update shareholders further on the group's financial performance through our interim results announcement in Novembe


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...636/376138.pdf

Just finished reading the agm. Not good and I think they need to do a cap raise asap, otherwise in real risk. Good luck to holders

Thay  say "Our customers continue to rate our service positively and guide our initiatives to improve"

I read the graph as going backwards in NZ. Not good with this result. 
 

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 09, 2022, 09:52 AMThay  say "Our customers continue to rate our service positively and guide our initiatives to improve"

I read the graph as going backwards in NZ. Not good with this result. 
 

If you ever bother answer "On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are you to recommend Metroglass to a friend or colleague?" What do you score?

Such surveys are pretty meaningless

And yes .....cust satisfaction is down last few months.

Oh dear.....if I could short this stock I would.  IMO the price has a greater chance of halving than doubling.  I don't think we will see 45c again this year or 2023.  I believe they have some fundamental issues that cannot be resolved without some sort of "event".  The sooner they realise this, the better it will be for everyone.

Yes compare them to STU who early on in their troubles raised $80m and paid off their debt. That provided them options. MPG should still raise $20-25m and get their debt down to a much lower level.

I see they are raising prices again 5% next month. They have managed reasonable cashflow in the past and reduced debt by about $45-50m but not sure they can reproduce similar cash flow to do it again over the next few years.

It takes "real skill" to have been in a building boom, command such a large market share and still be really struggling.  What a pack of Muppets !

Quote from: Basil on Aug 09, 2022, 09:38 PMIt takes "real skill" to have been in a building boom, command such a large market share and still be really struggling.  What a pack of Muppets !

makes you wonder how they will do now the building boom is apparently over.

ACC bailing.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397262

Yeah and they have a LOT more to SELL.

The latest announcement does not bode well. They need to do a heavily discounted cap raise NOW. Otherwise.....

Quote from: Shareguy on Nov 19, 2022, 12:20 AMThe latest announcement does not bode well. They need to do a heavily discounted cap raise NOW. Otherwise.....

Agree 100% but I doubt many investors would be prepared to stump up more capital or they would find anyone to underwrite the issue.  Receivership is a very real chance here in my opinion. Managment have never really been proactive before.  This cost out exercise...I'd happily wager quite a few bucks the bank is calling the shots on that.  It really feels like it's the last roll of the dice for MPG.

Be interesting watching how this plays out with major shareholders'
Masfen Securities on 13.70% and Takutai [VSL's Peter Wells] on 9.16%.
A disaster I [luckily] avoided.

Closed at another new all time low today of just 17.5 cents.
I continue to be astonished how with a building boom and a dominant market share these guys have managed to so comprehensively stuff this company up.
Only just started a cost out exercise that I wouldn't mind wagering a few bob on was not an initiative of their own but something the bank insisted they do.
This gets my vote as the listed company most likely to go into receivership in 2023.

I started doing a bit of research on them a few days ago.
The fact they have their Australian operation starting to motor made me a bit interested.
Then I thought why bother?
 

What does our friend KW say about buying in a downtrend  ;)

Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2022, 05:20 PMClosed at another new all time low today of just 17.5 cents.
I continue to be astonished how with a building boom and a dominant market share these guys have managed to so comprehensively stuff this company up.
Only just started a cost out exercise that I wouldn't mind wagering a few bob on was not an initiative of their own but something the bank insisted they do.
This gets my vote as the listed company most likely to go into receivership in 2023.

Hmmm. I reckon its a tough call between MPG and MFB

I  would doubt Masfen Securities [13.7%,] or Takutai Ltd [9.16%] would mean much to her.?

Quote from: NZInvestor on Dec 09, 2022, 06:23 PMHmmm. I reckon its a tough call between MPG and MFB

Agree although I think it will be MFB.
MPG..Could be some fun.?
They are talking the talk,and it could be possible someone came in and walked the walk.?
Looking as though it is only NZ that needs sorting,and possibly ,yes only possibly their strategy could be made to work. [by Peter Wells].
Current market cap is $32.44 mil.

Quote from: NZInvestor on Dec 09, 2022, 06:23 PMHmmm. I reckon its a tough call between MPG and MFB

Don't MPG have about $60m in debt and bleeding market share at 100 miles an hour ?

They've been trying to 'fix" the N.Z operations for years.

Agree with you though its without doubt a case of choosing between two very ugly sisters lol

Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2022, 05:20 PMClosed at another new all time low today of just 17.5 cents.
I continue to be astonished how with a building boom and a dominant market share these guys have managed to so comprehensively stuff this company up.
Only just started a cost out exercise that I wouldn't mind wagering a few bob on was not an initiative of their own but something the bank insisted they do.
This gets my vote as the listed company most likely to go into receivership in 2023.

Went as low as 15 cents something in 2020

So not all time low this time but it seems pretty certain they will break that record soon

Maybe when rights issue at 10 cents (nice round number)

For year ended 2015 Metro reported $171m in NZ sales

This year 2022 they reported $178m NZ sales

So over 7 years stuff all growth in sales

In this 7 years Stats NZ say building activity has almost doubled. (Prior 7 years Metro sales grew in line with 'building activity' so building activity seems a reasonable de facto measure of the market Metro plays in)

Soemthing gone terribly wrong since IPO

Quote from: lorraina on Dec 09, 2022, 06:26 PMI  would doubt Masfen Securities [13.7%,] or Takutai Ltd [9.16%] would mean much to her.?

Masfen and Takutai (Wells) not known for investing in duds

Even though under water at the moment they must see a brighter future

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2022, 10:22 AMFor year ended 2015 Metro reported $171m in NZ sales

This year 2022 they reported $178m NZ sales

So over 7 years stuff all growth in sales

In this 7 years Stats NZ say building activity has almost doubled. (Prior 7 years Metro sales grew in line with 'building activity' so building activity seems a reasonable de facto measure of the market Metro plays in)

Soemthing gone terribly wrong since IPO

I think the problem is that they turned into a growth company :) ;

Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 10, 2022, 11:02 AMI think the problem is that they turned into a growth company :) ;

Yes - driven by institutional and fund managers who 'demanded' growth at all costs ... go get guys no matter the cost etc

Being owned by PE was bad enough but it least it was being run on a day by day basis quite and would have reported decent profits if not lumbered with a mountain of debt.

The founders probably still cant believe they got $350m for their business in 2006 --- Fletchers couldn't even match that price

Just to cheer people up a bit:

Long term (10 yrs) EPS is 1.4 cent per share ... i.e.long term PE is 12.4. Not too bad.
Analysts (or should I say one analyst) predict for the coming three years an average EPS of 3.2 cents. OK, I know - analysts are as often wrong as they are right, but so are we. This would be a forward PE of 5.5;

Better not talking about growth given the previous discussion - but it might be fair to assume that overall business stays as it is. No doubt people will keep building houses and some might even consider to add a window or two. I suppose the gummits request to upgrade rental accommodation (insulation standards and all this stuff) might help a bit as well.

NTA is around 17 cents / share ... and for the largest glass supplier in NZ it might be even valid to allow for some "goodwill".

FWIW - DCF value is 32 cents / share and analyst "consensus" is 44 cents.

I do see their debts (69% leverage ratio), and selling their Aussie branch might be one of the best moves they could do ... but if not - I could see a case for a 2:1 CR at 10 cents or so.

In my view - high risk, but as well a high reward if it goes well. Clearly not the basket to but all your eggs into, but potentially worthwhile a little gamble.

Anyway ... hard to see how market (who some say, is always right) priced them only a few years ago at above $2 per share. Makes me wonder, whether market is now as wrong as it was then (just with the pendulum on the other side) ...

Makes for interesting times for MPG.
Debt is currently an issue.
However.??..Perhaps not for every one.
I well remember a bank pulling the plug on a ChCh Mall owner.
Bank sold The Mall to a new owner,with no money changing hands.
Mortgage was transferred to the new owner who in the bank's eye was sound.
New owner off course sold the Mall a couple of years later for a very handsome profit.
The profit was more than handsome, as he never had to put up any capital.
I would expect Peter Wells with his stellar record with Vulcan Steel has not bought a holding in MPG for no good reason.
I would also expect Masfen Securities would be keen to see value restored to MPG.
Both have deep pockets.
Disc.Never owned any MPG shares,.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 10, 2022, 12:06 PMJust to cheer people up a bit:

Long term (10 yrs) EPS is 1.4 cent per share ... i.e.long term PE is 12.4. Not too bad.
Analysts (or should I say one analyst) predict for the coming three years an average EPS of 3.2 cents. OK, I know - analysts are as often wrong as they are right, but so are we. This would be a forward PE of 5.5;

Better not talking about growth given the previous discussion - but it might be fair to assume that overall business stays as it is. No doubt people will keep building houses and some might even consider to add a window or two. I suppose the gummits request to upgrade rental accommodation (insulation standards and all this stuff) might help a bit as well.

NTA is around 17 cents / share ... and for the largest glass supplier in NZ it might be even valid to allow for some "goodwill".

FWIW - DCF value is 32 cents / share and analyst "consensus" is 44 cents.

I do see their debts (69% leverage ratio), and selling their Aussie branch might be one of the best moves they could do ... but if not - I could see a case for a 2:1 CR at 10 cents or so.

In my view - high risk, but as well a high reward if it goes well. Clearly not the basket to but all your eggs into, but potentially worthwhile a little gamble.

Anyway ... hard to see how market (who some say, is always right) priced them only a few years ago at above $2 per share. Makes me wonder, whether market is now as wrong as it was then (just with the pendulum on the other side) ...

You in boots and all then Peter ...or doing this DCA stuff

Peter Wells ex Vulcan Steel as large Metro shareholder

Rhys Jones CEO Vulcan a Metro Director

Intriguing

Just maybe an acquisition ....esp after Vulcan recent acquisition of an aluminium company

Possibly be the subject an article in the AFR soon

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2022, 12:31 PMYou in boots and all then Peter ...or doing this DCA stuff

I have a small holding ... which I hope to at least double by just waiting - but yes, I see that there is as well some risk attached to it ... this is life.

5,087,510 shares traded so far today,including  a special crossing of 4,874,101 at 17 cents.

Quote from: lorraina on Dec 12, 2022, 04:21 PM5,087,510 shares traded so far today,including  a special crossing of 4,874,101 at 17 cents.

Migh5 just be something in the AFR soon after all

So Wells (Takutai) still buying

Up to 10.94% now

That AFR article now on hold to after Christmas I think

Had Metro Glass representative at our house this morning. Another eight panels of Low E glass to be replaced under warranty due to moisture ingress. 10 year warranty must be hurting

Wonder what Bain Capital doing with their 11% plus holding?

Cost them 40 cents and 55 cents 4 years ago (Devon Funds at least cut their losses at 40 cents)

Maybe AFR will enlighten us after Christmas

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 16, 2022, 08:57 AMThat AFR article now on hold to after Christmas I think

You have been hinting about this forthcoming article. Would you like to speculate as to its contents?

Metro had to say something (before reading in the AFR lol

Possibly got somebody wanting to take them over but acquiror don't want to take Oz on so OZ must go before hand

So a business now well positioned for a good future and going cheap

That's Metro for you

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/407328/389421.pdf

If the Oz business has A$5-6m of ebit then what can they get for it...A$20-25m?

Reduce debt to c. NZ$40m and focus on sorting out NZ

Metro borrowed $48m to acquire that OZ business in 2016

And then pumped in zillions of capex and restructuring costs

OZ sales currently aren't really much more than they were back then

Now it is well positioned for a bright future it's time to hock it off

If Australia Glass is improving and going to "contribute significantly" to Group performance, why would you sell it. Especially is NZ is "soft".

NZ will be left with an utter flea bitten mutt still holding significant debt.

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 24, 2023, 02:13 PMMetro borrowed $48m to acquire that OZ business in 2016

And then pumped in zillions of capex and restructuring costs

OZ sales currently aren't really much more than they were back then

Now it is well positioned for a bright future it's time to hock it off

Worth re-reading the much lamented Brian Gaynor's  (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/brian-gaynor-metro-performance-glass-fails-to-shine/MT43X45SWX4FY7EIYIO6CB54TA/) excellent piece from more than 5 years ago and reflecting on where Metro has gone from there.  It calls to mind the old adage about leopards and their lack of spot changing.

A rep from Metro agreed in December to replace 8 panels of low e glass that have only been in for 6 years. Said will get this done end of Jan. Heard nothing from them so emailed sales manager who said would get back to me. He never did and now find out he's gone. Rep now telling me will be done in May.

From my point of view they have systemic issues which management seem incapable of fixing. Incompetence comes to mind. I am concerned looking at some of the comments that they might not be around much longer.

Why they have a 10 year warranty is beyond me. We have already had half the house replaced , some panels 3 times.

Who's going to buy thier Australian buisines and at what price. As far as raising equity is concerned i think it would have to be heavily discounted. Even then with the current conditions I think they would struggle for it to be successful.

Disc, not a holder at any price.

I have just sold my Metro shares after reviewing their statement. Borrowings up to 64 million but selling their growth asset. Struggling in NZ I decided to cut my loses and reinvest elsewhere.

NBR speculating that an AGG sale is not universally popular among Metroglass's main shareholders.....Bain, Masfen and Wells hold about 36% between them

Could make things interesting

Sell AGG to reduce debt then what ...... I reckon takeover seems best out for shareholders

Have been having a look at this and note the following.

MPG have a debt problem and are currently looking at selling AGG.  As per the attached NZX announcement they paid A$43.1m in 2016 on a cash and debt free basis.  Sales at acquisition date were A$45m with A$8m EBITDA.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/288268

According to the latest update (attached)

After a successful turnaround, for the 12 months to 31 March 2023 Metroglass expects AGG to deliver revenue of AUD 70.0 million, EBITDA of AUD 11.0 million and EBIT of AUD 6.0 million1.

For the 12 months to 31 March 2024, management forecasts are for AGG to achieve revenue, EBITDA and EBIT of approximately AUD 79.0 million, AUD 11.5 million, AUD 7.5 million1 respectively.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/409112

According to nzx release below for the financial year ending 31 March 2023 Metroglass expects to achieve a Group EBIT before abnormal items in the range of $11.0 million to $12.0 million vs $5.9 million in FY22. Net debt is expected to be circa $64.0 million, which is an increase year on year, driven primarily by working capital requirements.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407328

So current forecast for AGG YEM23 compared to purchase price

FY23F                                    A$70m with EBITDA of A$11.0m
Actual sales at purchase      A$45m with EBITDA of $A8m.

So what's the likely sale price of AGG?  Paid $43.1 in 2016 now has higher sales and improved EBITDA

If AGG sold what is left.  1H23 result has NZ business with

Sales Revenue $100.0m, +14% (1H22: $87.9m)

EBIT $3.6m, -15%

Conclusion, with current market conditions AGG might be a hard sell, even at close to what they paid. My personal opinion is that debt is a huge handbrake and they have left it too late for a CR.  Might be better off from a growth point of view of selling NZ and keeping AGG. I think in its current state it's not investable until clarity on solving its debt problem is known. Even for a gamble I see to many cockroaches for the risk.

Disc, not a holder.

Nice work.  Sale of AGG at 8x forward EBIT clears the debts which leaves NZ.  Reminds me of the old question: "How do you get a Kiwi into a small business?".

Quote from: Ferg on May 11, 2023, 09:45 PMNice work.  Sale of AGG at 8x forward EBIT clears the debts which leaves NZ.  Reminds me of the old question: "How do you get a Kiwi into a small business?".

To be fair - it always used to be a small business and just has been pumped up by private equity and hype ... but yes, I see what you mean :) ;

Quote from: Shareguy on May 11, 2023, 09:23 PMHave been having a look at this and note the following.

MPG have a debt problem and are currently looking at selling AGG.  As per the attached NZX announcement they paid A$43.1m in 2016 on a cash and debt free basis.  Sales at acquisition date were A$45m with A$8m EBITDA.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/288268

According to the latest update (attached)

After a successful turnaround, for the 12 months to 31 March 2023 Metroglass expects AGG to deliver revenue of AUD 70.0 million, EBITDA of AUD 11.0 million and EBIT of AUD 6.0 million1.

For the 12 months to 31 March 2024, management forecasts are for AGG to achieve revenue, EBITDA and EBIT of approximately AUD 79.0 million, AUD 11.5 million, AUD 7.5 million1 respectively.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/409112

According to nzx release below for the financial year ending 31 March 2023 Metroglass expects to achieve a Group EBIT before abnormal items in the range of $11.0 million to $12.0 million vs $5.9 million in FY22. Net debt is expected to be circa $64.0 million, which is an increase year on year, driven primarily by working capital requirements.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407328

So current forecast for AGG YEM23 compared to purchase price

FY23F                                    A$70m with EBITDA of A$11.0m
Actual sales at purchase      A$45m with EBITDA of $A8m.

So what's the likely sale price of AGG?  Paid $43.1 in 2016 now has higher sales and improved EBITDA

If AGG sold what is left.  1H23 result has NZ business with

Sales Revenue $100.0m, +14% (1H22: $87.9m)

EBIT $3.6m, -15%

Conclusion, with current market conditions AGG might be a hard sell, even at close to what they paid. My personal opinion is that debt is a huge handbrake and they have left it too late for a CR.  Might be better off from a growth point of view of selling NZ and keeping AGG. I think in its current state it's not investable until clarity on solving its debt problem is known. Even for a gamble I see to many cockroaches for the risk.

Disc, not a holder.

Agree - good job.

Not sure though about your comment on the CR. Obviously - it would be painful, but what would be wrong with 2 new shares for one at 10 cents? This would give them some 35 million dollars, enough to bring the debt under control and focus on selling the Australian bit at a fair price.

While the NZ bit currently does not make too much money - they still have an important market position and all the important connections. They have a huge amount of working infrastructure, a trained team and an established logistical network. I can't see how you can not make money with that as soon as the pressure to be a growth company and take over the world (starting as most Kiwis in Australia) is gone ...

Sp action tells you all you want to know of where MPG is heading imo - banks are in control and AGG is unlikely to fetch enough to make the banks comfortable. 

And no underwriter is likely to take on the challenge of a CR with this company's track record!!!!

Quote from: Teitei on May 12, 2023, 01:10 PMSp action tells you all you want to know of where MPG is heading imo - banks are in control and AGG is unlikely to fetch enough to make the banks comfortable. 

And no underwriter is likely to take on the challenge of a CR with this company's track record!!!!

Agree.  Great analysis by Shareguy but unfortunately the cold reality of the situation is what you can get for a business in what ostensibly amounts to a forced sale situation in a high interest rate recessionary environment and what you pay for it willingly in a low interest rate environment using cheap debt to pay for eps accretive opportunities, can be two vastly different amounts.  I agree that the bank is the one that's really calling the shots here and its all about reducing or eliminating debt.  What they might ostensibly coerce the company to sell their Australian operation at, might be a figure that really sticks in the claw of major shareholders.  I agree 100% with Shareguy's conclusion, extract below.

QuoteConclusion, with current market conditions AGG might be a hard sell, even at close to what they paid. My personal opinion is that debt is a huge handbrake and they have left it too late for a CR.  Might be better off from a growth point of view of selling NZ and keeping AGG. I think in its current state it's not investable until clarity on solving its debt problem is known. Even for a gamble I see to many cockroaches for the risk.

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 12, 2023, 12:55 PMAgree - good job.

Not sure though about your comment on the CR. Obviously - it would be painful, but what would be wrong with 2 new shares for one at 10 cents? This would give them some 35 million dollars, enough to bring the debt under control and focus on selling the Australian bit at a fair price.

While the NZ bit currently does not make too much money - they still have an important market position and all the important connections. They have a huge amount of working infrastructure, a trained team and an established logistical network. I can't see how you can not make money with that as soon as the pressure to be a growth company and take over the world (starting as most Kiwis in Australia) is gone ...

Yes understand your thoughts re a CR. I was originally going down that track of 11 or 12 cents. However I can't see institutions or the majority of retail investors going for even that attractive discount when you consider the issues they have. They don't make enough profit and being the largest are getting chipped away by APL. Plus  we are in a declining market. APL have opened a state of the art plant and from all accounts are doing well.

If they can't get a good price for AGG hopefully the larger holders will stump up with some more money.

PS just had 9 panels replaced at our house and have just had them back for a measure for another 2 that have blue haze. And the original build we had over 1/3 replaced some panels 3 times. That's all under warranty.

Hopefully it all works out for them.

Quote from: Shareguy on May 11, 2023, 09:23 PMIf AGG sold what is left.  1H23 result has NZ business with

Sales Revenue $100.0m, +14% (1H22: $87.9m)

EBIT $3.6m, -15%

I have been looking into the NZ business sales and GP for the past 11 half years and comparing their performance to that of a private business that operates in a very similar industry with which I am familiar.  The entrails are not looking good for MPG.

My initial thought was NZ H2 sales for FY23 could top $100m for the first time since the HY Sep 19 on the basis MPG had shifted from a 53/47 H1/H2 split to a 50/50 split.  But nope.  Their guidance announced 24 Feb 2023 mentioned "Trading to date has been softer than the prior year in New Zealand" - I presume this was for either the 3 months ended Dec 2022 or the 4 months ended Jan 2023 given H1 was +13.8% on the prior year.  Not good.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407328

Assuming a -2% decline in H2 (elsewhere had +2% for the same half) that puts MPG NZ sales at $88m for the half and ~$188m for the year (which will be +5.8% YoY).

NZ EBIT H1 was $3.5m.  FYF for MPG is $11.5m EBIT, of which $11m is AGG (per Shareguy's post and links).  That leaves about $1m for NZ for the year, which is a loss of -$2.5m for H2 for NZ.  As I said, the entrails are not looking good.

Further where MPG GP was 50-51% in 2018/2019, they are now sitting around 41-42%.  The private business has a significantly higher GP margin, which has fallen 2-3% over the same time period whilst MPG has fallen around 9%.  Our fall was attributable to FX movements and constraints on price increases in some sales channels.  MPG did not have those same constraints. Ouch.

The real shame here is Metro is synonymous with glass in NZ.  They have a dominant position.  But they are pants at making money.  Whether that is due to the cost of the local environment (think wages plus H&S), spend on ESG initiatives, spend on re-work for which they are well known, poor management or something else remains a mystery wrapped in an enigma.  Meanwhile, we are happy to chip away at their market share.

Good stuff there Ferg

Yes Metro NZ performance these days is abysmal ...which is rather sad

The founding guys were glass guys ...knew how to run a glass business. Private equity took it over 15 years and it still fundamentally performed pretty well under them ......except for the mountain of debt they loaded it up with.

Even at IPO time they were making an EBIT margin of 15% plus .......world class and the envy of many in this type of industry, now thecNZ business as you point out is pretty marginal.

But since the IPO it's been all down hill. Some blame that guy Rigby but I feel things go deeper than that and his replacement been pretty useless as well.

All the capex on the new plant hasn't improved the overall situation one bit .....seems to have created more problems / hurdles.

I reckon the hole they've dug themselves over the last few years is so deep they'll never climb out of it. At best they'll struggle on with marginal profits.

Couldn't but help a bit of similarity with Synlait here .......lots of new shiny things and new processes and promises of great growth (new customer for Synlait / new double glazed windows for Metro) and stuff all profitability.

I would think the company you nentioned and the likes of Viridian and place out Cambridge will continue to win at Metro's expense

In days past I worked for what became Metro so I do feel a little sad to current state of affairs.

Quote from: winner (n) on May 13, 2023, 07:13 PMIn days past I worked for what became Metro so I do feel a little sad to current state of affairs.

So after you left, it all turned to custard? Or did you help to turn it to custard and then left? LOL ;D

Quote from: Buzz on May 13, 2023, 07:26 PMSo after you left, it all turned to custard? Or did you help to turn it to custard and then left? LOL ;D

I said days past ....should have said last century ......I could say I helped set the foundations that made Metro great and grew into something that an outfit paid $350m  for

There may be life in this dog yet.....Aussie to the rescue.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412158

Group Revenue for the year to 31 March 2023 of $263.5 million was 12% higher than the prior year, with New Zealand up 5% and Australia up 32%. Group EBIT2 before significant items rose 100% to $11.8 million. As a result of an $10.0 million impairment charge on New Zealand goodwill,

Statutory NPAT declined to $(10.5) million loss from $(0.5) million in FY22.

Net debt increased from $52.3 million to $60.1 million at 31 March 2023,

Quote from: Left Field on May 29, 2023, 09:41 AMThere may be life in this dog yet.....Aussie to the rescue.


Net debt increased from $52.3 million to $60.1 million at 31 March 2023, [/i]

Only if the dog is Old Yeller

Very disappointed in this company. Had the Metro guys here today replacing some faulty panels only to be told that one of our corner unit replacements has a scratch inside the panel.  Its just never ending.

At least this time their staff noticed it before it was glued in place.

Certainly can see why they don't make much money.

Quote from: Shareguy on Jun 14, 2023, 01:00 PMVery disappointed in this company. Had the Metro guys here today replacing some faulty panels only to be told that one of our corner unit replacements has a scratch inside the panel.  Its just never ending.

At least this time their staff noticed it before it was glued in place.

Certainly can see why they don't make much money.

So their 5R Solutions (recycling) could be really busy

Jeez ...share price 13 cents something ...unbelievable

Even the announcement about a new CFO hasn't helped ....maybe saying he had worked for many years at Steel and Tube made the market jittery.....only joking

Masfen and Wells lost patience and going to take control

Wonder how generous they will be?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/414827/398621.pdf

Hope it all works out for them and put long suffering shareholders out of their misery .......might even get a decent get out of jail card with a 30 cent offer

Wonder if Bain in with them behind the scenes

Shouldn't the SP go up? I mean... if they are buying the whole company or most of it they will have to offer something better than 15.8? I'm surprised there is not a market halt or something

Quote from: ezek22 on Jul 18, 2023, 09:43 AMShouldn't the SP go up? I mean... if they are buying the whole company or most of it they will have to offer something better than 15.8? I'm surprised there is not a market halt or something

Only thinking about it ...yeah right

Share price will go up on speculation takeover more likely now ...how high?

No doubt we will find out the price holders are willing to sell at from the depth, if it disappears up to 30c then we will know.

ok there is a trading halt

Halted with no offer on the table, just a proposal to work together, bit weird.

It is lol, I guess they will announce something else

By the way, I been reading a lot of your comments for years. Nice to meet you all... I am finally able to post. Not being able to convince sharetrader.co.nz that I'm not a bot yet, so I can only read there

18 cents

(https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif)

trying to buy the company for 18cps is 3.3x ebitda, even 4.0x ebitda is 28cps and far more likely to succeed between 25-30cps...this should be the opening bid as management seem keen to sell Oz unless a better bid comes along

After suffering numerous quality issues that just seem to go on and on. I suggest that the company's board and senior management needs a total clean out. Doing the basics the best is what's needed in my opinion. Quality checks at each process with individual sign off for quality accountability.

Sending panel after panel and even installing them with clearly visible damage tells me that their internal quality control is broken.

Why was the damage not picked up in

the factory
when it was loaded on a van
installed in place
rubbers installed

Systemic failures in quality control and poor communication which I think will be widespread.

Selling the profitable Australian business that offers huge growth, to me is an admission that they are unable to trade out of the debt issue.

Maybe the 18 cps might in hindsight be a good deal. The low offer was made for a reason.

Good luck to holders

Shareguy .....your 'issues' probably highlights why Metro is in state it is today.

Total lack of control and commitment from top to bottom. Suppose that's how a company goes from being privately owned worth $360m only 16 years ago to being worth $30m today

Chair Peter Griffiths performance at last years ASM was appalling. He and Mander denied things were bad and nothing was their fault.

Time to go back to basics with a new team

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 22, 2023, 09:19 AMShareguy .....your 'issues' probably highlights why Metro is in state it is today.

Total lack of control and commitment from top to bottom. Suppose that's how a company goes from being privately owned worth $360m only 16 years ago to being worth $30m today

Chair Peter Griffiths performance at last years ASM was appalling. He and Mander denied things were bad and nothing was their fault.

Time to go back to basics with a new team

Agree Winner.

Also they have had plenty of time to sell the Australian business and no announcement. Maybe the offers are not there. Or more likely to low.

Agree with all of that.  Metro would be better going private with laser focused owners running the cutter.  Boards add nothing at this scale, they get consumed by "governance" initiatives and listing obligations. 

Not sure the board is doing existing shareholders any favours by taking the "substantially undervalued" line either, but then if they admit that 18cps is as good as it gets they would be damning their own performance.  Maybe I am wrong and they will squeeze a couple more cents out of the offer through the ritual negotiation dance. 

It is one thing to cut off a gangrenous limb to save the body, but if the only way to satisfy the banks is to liquidate the most promising business unit it means the banks have given up on the business and dont care if they leave a listless husk so long as they get their money back...

I feel for the shareholders who have kept the faith with this business.

Quote from: Shareguy on Jul 22, 2023, 08:01 AMAfter suffering numerous quality issues that just seem to go on and on. I suggest that the company's board and senior management needs a total clean out. Doing the basics the best is what's needed in my opinion. Quality checks at each process with individual sign off for quality accountability.

Sending panel after panel and even installing them with clearly visible damage tells me that their internal quality control is broken.

Why was the damage not picked up in

the factory
when it was loaded on a van
installed in place
rubbers installed

Systemic failures in quality control and poor communication which I think will be widespread.

Selling the profitable Australian business that offers huge growth, to me is an admission that they are unable to trade out of the debt issue.

Maybe the 18 cps might in hindsight be a good deal. The low offer was made for a reason.

Good luck to holders

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 22, 2023, 09:19 AMShareguy .....your 'issues' probably highlights why Metro is in state it is today.

Total lack of control and commitment from top to bottom. Suppose that's how a company goes from being privately owned worth $360m only 16 years ago to being worth $30m today

Chair Peter Griffiths performance at last years ASM was appalling. He and Mander denied things were bad and nothing was their fault.

Time to go back to basics with a new team

I went and had a look at last year's AGM on their website, good entertainment if anyone has the time. A Mr Bruce had a good go at them but seemed like water off a ducks back.

Updated chart below of Metro NZ sales v NZ Building Activity ex Stats NZ. Building Activity used a market proxy which Metro often uses in their presos so must mean something

Tells one sad story

Listed in 2014. Share registry included the regular instos - NZ Super, ACC. Jarden, Harbour, Salt, Milford etc

The 'influence' of these instos demanded they grow and then grow more. Put pressure on Board to do things to grow. Thus the Australia acquisition in 2016.

Sales through to FY17 were respectable (see chart).  At least sales were keeping up with overall building activity even though margins were coming under pressure

At end of 2017 CEO Nigel Rigby left. He'd been CEO for 5 years (pre IPO) and by looks of chart hadn't done a bad job. Coincidently Rigby left not long after Peter Griffith became Chair. Read into that what you want.

Since then it's been down hill ever since for Metro. Declining NZ sales and profitability and Australia taking a while to sort of come right.

The instos have one by one deserted the sinking ship ....that alone says something. Now Masfen, Wells and Bain are left holding a sick baby.

Lesson - a successful company like Metro that was under private control for any years is not suited to be owned and unduly 'influenced' by demanding shareholders (read instos). Wells has recognised this and probably one reason why he wants to take control and run it accordingly.

Sad really - one telling fact is NZ sales are about the same level as they were back in 2008. No wonder a business once worth $360m now only worth $30m

I wonder if Griffiths and Mander reflect on that.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 23, 2023, 10:45 AMUpdated chart below of Metro NZ sales v NZ Building Activity ex Stats NZ. Building Activity used a market proxy which Metro often uses in their presos so must mean something

Tells one sad story

Listed in 2014. Share registry included the regular instos - NZ Super, ACC. Jarden, Harbour, Salt, Milford etc

The 'influence' of these instos demanded they grow and then grow more. Put pressure on Board to do things to grow. Thus the Australia acquisition in 2016.

Sales through to FY17 were respectable (see chart).  At least sales were keeping up with overall building activity even though margins were coming under pressure

At end of 2017 CEO Nigel Rigby left. He'd been CEO for 5 years (pre IPO) and by looks of chart hadn't done a bad job. Coincidently Rigby left not long after Peter Griffith became Chair. Read into that what you want.

Since then it's been down hill ever since for Metro. Declining NZ sales and profitability and Australia taking a while to sort of come right.

The instos have one by one deserted the sinking ship ....that alone says something. Now Masfen, Wells and Bain are left holding a sick baby.

Lesson - a successful company like Metro that was under private control for any years is not suited to be owned and unduly 'influenced' by demanding shareholders (read instos). Wells has recognised this and probably one reason why he wants to take control and run it accordingly.

Sad really - one telling fact is NZ sales are about the same level as they were back in 2008. No wonder a business once worth $360m now only worth $30m

I wonder if Griffiths and Mander reflect on that.

Wow that graph certainly is telling. Thanks for posting.  I wonder if Wells and co are better off waiting to see what happens. They might get it even cheaper.

Quote from: Shareguy on Jul 23, 2023, 12:37 PMWow that graph certainly is telling. Thanks for posting.  I wonder if Wells and co are better off waiting to see what happens. They might get it even cheaper.

Yes very suggestive graph and astute follow up comment. 

The Board are acting as if Wells et al are trying to steal the company.  I think they should be alert to the prospect that they are in fact needed to save the company.  Exhibit one is their Plan B - sell the most promising half of the company and hope the banks dont wind you up.

If I were Wells I would not offer any more money, and just let them stew.  Taking over this business in a softening economy you dont want to overpay... 

Nice graph and commentary winner.  Thanks for sharing.

The Vulcan man resigned as Director of Metro

He had to eh

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/415115/398954.pdf

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/buyout-boom-whos-coming-after-kiwi-companies/PTQBTWUQ5FFYVC37NPD4AR5V4I/

Debt down from $60m to $55m in 3 months and AGG still pumping...always interesting to watch a company when there are predators about.  There is a miraculous improvement in shareholder communication and timely information. 

If AGG can make a consistent A$6-8m ebit what will the best offer be?  A$35-40m? That would make a serious inroad into the Group debt - bring it down below NZ$20m and reduce their finance cost by several million a year.

Independent Director Graham Stuart voted off the MPG Board at today's ASM as angry investors questioned the sale of MPG's Australian business.

(RNZ News)

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 01, 2023, 12:23 PMIndependent Director Graham Stuart voted off the MPG Board at today's ASM as angry investors questioned the sale of MPG's Australian business.

(RNZ News)

...and not wanted at ERoad

Graham has a bit of spare time coming up

Meanwhile we are observing the 'wholesale destruction of wealth'....although now MPG is trading at 13.5c it is more like a corner dairy worth of wealth destruction.  That 18c offer might look good in hindsight.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPG.NZ/chart?p=MPG.NZ

"Are we there yet?"

Amazing how a company can have half of all the glass market, could say dominated the market for many years and yet the shares have gone from over $2 in 2016 to penny dreadful status today.  What on earth happened to all the capex on plant modernization and streamlining of systems e.t.c. shareholders were promised would deliver results.  How on earth did it go so wrong ?

Another director resigns with immediate affect.  Is Bad news coming.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421388

Quote from: Shareguy on Nov 09, 2023, 04:55 PMAnother director resigns with immediate affect.  Is Bad news coming.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421388

He obviously doesn't want to be around for next update

Oh dear ... HY results are out:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/422573/408442.pdf

Revenue down and earnings ...

well, I guess they nearly would have achieved breakeven thanks to amazing Australian efforts, but then they found this non cash item they had to write off. Damn!

Another 9.2 million down the drain, but at least Low E glass seems to perform.

Not sure either, whether the rest of the year will be more promising, but they promise that they will ask shareholders if and when they manage to close a deal to sell their only cashcow - their Australian sub.

Unusual volumes on bid-side as well as on offer ... even if it still looks like a Mexican standoff.

Somebody tries to sell more than 15 m shares at 16 cents and somebody else offers 14.5 cents for more than 6 million shares.

Something happening?

MPG market.JPG

Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 02, 2024, 03:35 PMUnusual volumes on bid-side as well as on offer ... even if it still looks like a Mexican standoff.

Somebody tries to sell more than 15 m shares at 16 cents and somebody else offers 14.5 cents for more than 6 million shares.

I suspect Yahoo's order volume numbers have been broken for years. Wayback Machine historical snapshot (there's only one) from 2020 (https://web.archive.org/web/20200919093740/https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPG.NZ/) shows improbably-high numbers too.

Here's what I'm seeing on Jarden Direct... tumbleweed:

MPG depth Jarden Direct.png

Quote from: bulltrap on Feb 02, 2024, 04:35 PMI suspect Yahoo's order volume numbers have been broken for years. Wayback Machine historical snapshot (there's only one) from 2020 (https://web.archive.org/web/20200919093740/https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPG.NZ/) shows improbably-high numbers too.

Here's what I'm seeing on Jarden Direct... tumbleweed:

MPG depth Jarden Direct.png

Fair enough - my mistake to check only on one page which I don't normally use for this service :);

Yes, Jardens numbers (though not always reliable either) look much more likely ...

Since my last post we have replaced a further 5 low E DG panels that had blue haze. What was surprising was that half way through the job they said they would no longer install but would supply to the original supplier and installer Fairview as per warranty. Fairview came and installed the panels all no charge and made the comment that they stoped buying from Metro years ago.

Quote from: Crackity on Mar 06, 2024, 05:54 PM2 more directors gone / new downgrade / Oz not sold / banking syndicate support is only potential after October - hmmmm - how's that other woofer MFB going?


The newly minted M(N)PG  Chairs other gig is a soft drink company - love the sentiment - We share one goal, being a force for good, for our beautiful planet and people, as well as for your tastebuds :) GET IN TOUCH. Founder, Director. Shawn Beck.

Maybe M(N)PG has found its saviour

Not a good update eh Snaps

Reading between lines F25 is going to be pretty bad as well

Jeez ....MPG shareprice 9.4 cents

That's pretty low

Punters must be wanting to get out ...in a hurry?

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 23, 2024, 04:34 PMJeez ....MPG shareprice 9.4 cents

That's pretty low

Punters must be wanting to get out ...in a hurry?

The dark before the dawn? But then, the depth is pretty thin, isn't it?

But hey, what do I know ... its some time the new board started with good intentions to turn the ship around. No announcement yet. Anybody knows more?

Capital Raise incoming to reduce debt.

its current intention is to raise at least $15m of capital by way of
an entitlement offer available to all existing shareholders. A placement may
also form part of the capital raise.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 23, 2024, 04:42 PMThe dark before the dawn? But then, the depth is pretty thin, isn't it?

But hey, what do I know ... its some time the new board started with good intentions to turn the ship around. No announcement yet. Anybody knows more?

They paid the price for ignorance and Arrogance. Now they can't win it back. Losing biggest customer hasn't helped as they haven't replaced it with anything substantial.

Just liquidate the business.

Good luck to you shareholders.

Quote from: Basil on May 06, 2024, 12:27 PMRasing $15m capital...Hmmm...good luck with that.

Well, yes they will need it. Just noticed that their current market cap is just slightly above 17m - i.e. they want to double their capital!

2.5 new shares for every existing share at 4 cents?

Not sure I would want to participate as shareholder.

Discl: I know, I would not :) ;

From bad to worse to awful to...game-over? A capital raise in the state they are in? Just another company using shareholders funds as a bank whilst at the same time destroying their capital. Hard to see who might be interested in paying for the lifeboats whilst the ship is going down... 

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 23, 2024, 04:34 PMJeez ....MPG shareprice 9.4 cents

That's pretty low

Punters must be wanting to get out ...in a hurry?

Well, I am pretty sure compared to the price of a new share in the CR the 9.4 cents will look pretty flash :); Maybe somebody with the right inkling ...?

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 06, 2024, 01:14 PMFrom bad to worse to awful to...game-over? A capital raise in the state they are in? Just another company using shareholders funds as a bank whilst at the same time destroying their capital. Hard to see who might be interested in paying for the lifeboats whilst the ship is going down... 

I can think of a couple who could buy it then integrate with existing business.

From memory they still own the property so if thats the case sell and and lease back.

You would be brave to buy and take on challenge and start from scratch.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 06, 2024, 01:51 PMI can think of a couple who could buy it then integrate with existing business.

From memory they still own the property so if thats the case sell and and lease back.

You would be brave to buy and take on challenge and start from scratch.

Didn't FBU circle at some stage, but they might be currently short of cash as well?

Ah yes - and the geniuses who used to run the board last year rejected a $33m take over. This would have given them the current market cap plus the 15m they are now seeking :):

But anyway - you are right, there is a lot of value - customer base, industry connections, distribution chain, ...

On the other hand, they do have a lot of debt - have a look at their balance sheet, and interest rates are high these days.

And while they automated a lot of their production, they optimized it for the NZ typical architect designed houses - their factory works most efficient when every window is unique. Not optimised for mass production.

I suppose that the only way to really get rid of our housing crisis is to standardise houses - and in this case they will find it hard to compete against cheap windows imported from e.g. China.

So, yes, there might be potential value, but there are as well high risks for anybody who dares to get in.

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 06, 2024, 02:14 PMDidn't FBU circle at some stage, but they might be currently short of cash as well?

Ah yes - and the geniuses who used to run the board last year rejected a $33m take over. This would have given them the current market cap plus the 15m they are now seeking :):

But anyway - you are right, there is a lot of value - customer base, industry connections, distribution chain, ...

On the other hand, they do have a lot of debt - have a look at their balance sheet, and interest rates are high these days.

And while they automated a lot of their production, they optimized it for the NZ typical architect designed houses - their factory works most efficient when every window is unique. Not optimised for mass production.

I suppose that the only way to really get rid of our housing crisis is to standardise houses - and in this case they will find it hard to compete against cheap windows imported from e.g. China.

So, yes, there might be potential value, but there are as well high risks for anybody who dares to get in.

Private Equity own one of their major competition and we all know they live off debt. Synergies would be huge.

As for Chinese windows, you need to remember NZ market is unique where the home owner wants there own thing so generally we make what ever the client wants. It will work in some cases, but not all and we aren't a big market.

Also the introduction of H1 means the specs are super regulated.

This is the same for European windows and PVC.

I've got a cool $hundred mill or so lying around. I wonder, should I put it to Synlait Capital Raise or Metros capital raise.

Gee, so many choices on the NZX

Quote from: Minimoke on May 06, 2024, 02:40 PMI've got a cool $hundred mill or so lying around. I wonder, should I put it to Synlait Capital Raise or Metros capital raise.

Gee, so many choices on the NZX

MPG wants only 15m (which would give you at estimated 4 cents per share) a two thirds voting majority :) - i.e the company would be basically yours for a bit of change. The remaining 85m might be enough to buy out Synlait (current market cap below $100m - i.e. $85m will go a long way).

The options from there are endless - you could build a huge MPG glass roof across the Dunsandel plant and convert the place into the First NZ business museum.

Given Dunsandel is along one of these tourist routes - there might be the odd visitor finding his or her way and learning about business opportunities in New Zealand ...  - well, this is obviously assuming THL stays a going concern :):

Nobody following anymore? I guess sure - nothing for the fainthearted, but certainly a good place to observe the last handful of years of a slow train wreck ...

Anyway - I admit, it feels sort of morbid ... but I just like to keep following the once glorious organisations. Helps me to put everything some people say about the wisdom of the market into perspective. Hey - this used to be 8 years ago a $2 plus share, and only the sky was the limit.

FY-results are out - and nobody noticing that MPG did beat several of its previous records?

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/431921/attachment/419721/431921-419721.pdf

While it is not the biggest loss they ever recorded, they deliver this year their highest liabilities to asset ratio (78%) as well their highest loss per equity ratio (58.8%) - ever. Hey, this is something, isn't it, nearly as good as the market share they used to command in NZ :) ;  ?

Outlook pretty gloomy as well, but hey - they are now starting the CR process in earnest. No doubt this will fix it.

I still think that there is value for somebody who understands the industry and able to run a company, but not so positive for retail shareholders. Anyway -good luck to the new board, they will need it. Wondering how the old board now thinks about the Takeover offer they declined last year. Wasn't it around 17 cents per share? Looks like boards are as hapless in determining companies value as markets are.

BP ...Shoeshine in NBR did a piece on Metro today

Basically said what you outlined

https://www.nbr.co.nz/shoeshine/metroglass-outlook-cloudy-with-a-chance-of-free-falls/
Prob paywalled

Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 17, 2024, 11:40 AMBP ...Shoeshine in NBR did a piece on Metro today

Basically said what you outlined

https://www.nbr.co.nz/shoeshine/metroglass-outlook-cloudy-with-a-chance-of-free-falls/
Prob paywalled

Gave up my nbr susbcription a long time ago ... just not enough value to justify the expense :). To make things worse - after me giving notice they kept billing my Credit Card. Took some time and effort to stop them to take my money, i.e. not interested to get them charging again.

... but here you go - my posts are free  8) !

In 2006 Private Equity paid $350m for Metro Glass

In 2014 they hocked it off for $310 in an IPO ...to clear the debt

Nice yoy only need to front up with $2 for 13% of the company ( and lend them some cash)

Pretty amazing eh

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/437937/attachment/427058/437937-427058.pdf

Zillions of new 3 cent shares

Share price holding up. Not only have you a dilutive placement of new shares you have a cap raise at 3 cents.

Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 12, 2024, 03:45 PMShare price holding up. Not only have you a dilutive placement of new shares you have a cap raise at 3 cents.

And $10m/$15m only puts a little dent in the $50m debt they have

New shareholder becomes the lendern..... imagine that comes at an added cost as well

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 12, 2024, 03:49 PMAnd $10m/$15m only puts a little dent in the $50m debt they have

New shareholder becomes the lendern..... imagine that comes at an added cost as well

Due diligence needs to be completed, so not a done deal yet. A lender of last resort who will no doubt have favourable terms for the debt. Not sure how many shareholders will be forking out. Cowes Bay might well get the 19.9 percent.

The good news is though hopefully this company will be saved. Will be interested in what Masfen and Wells do.

Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 12, 2024, 04:22 PMWill be interested in what Masfen and Wells do.

As per SSH announcements today, they're no longer pooling their holdings.

Fair to say they're not going to have another crack at a joint takeover.

Maybe they weren't aligned on working with Cowes Bay or supporting the cap raise? Could be a sign of regrouping.

Quote from: bulltrap on Sep 25, 2024, 02:15 PMAs per SSH announcements today, they're no longer pooling their holdings.

Fair to say they're not going to have another crack at a joint takeover.

Maybe they weren't aligned on working with Cowes Bay or supporting the cap raise? Could be a sign of regrouping.

Yes I was thinking the same. It's anyone's guess and could go either way.

Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 25, 2024, 03:21 PMYes I was thinking the same. It's anyone's guess and could go either way.

I suppose things get tricky around rights issues and takeover rules regarding creeping holdings above 20%.

With holdings separated, each of them can participate fully without much chance of exceeding 20% (even if overall uptake is low), and perhaps apply to take up some excess.

Renewing their partnership soon after the rights issue would look dodgy, but in the longer term maybe they could regroup for another attempt. Should they ever team up three-way with Cowes Bay, that could give them a de facto voting majority off the bat, in which case I can only hope minor shareholders are respected (c.f. SML).

I cringed my way through the annual shareholders meeting today - here are some of my notes and reactions:

CR offer documents will be issued within the next four weeks, and should include scenario projections through to 2027 (Shawn first called it a 'forecast' but dialled that back). The CR will allow oversubscription. After this, no further CR is planned. Although the CR doesn't directly address the debt mountain, and projections even have a near-term increase in debt, the plan is for the business turnaround to fund reducing debt.

Turning the NZ business around is expected to take 2-3 years.

As part of the growth plan for Australia, MPG is looking to purchase a plant from a failed processor. For New Zealand growth, Simon Bennett spoke highly of AGG CEO Steve Hamer, and how he'd had been increasingly tapping him for guidance in the New Zealand business. I had the impression that AGG hadn't yet been integrated with the New Zealand business, and that Steve was being offered a larger role. Some cost reduction measures in New Zealand mentioned were exiting the Bay of Plenty lease, and subleasing out the mothballed Wellington premises.

Regarding the canned AGG sale, Shawn revealed MPG had negotiated a 'not bad' offer for AGG, but ultimately declined on strategic grounds: 'don't sell your stars, instead fix your dogs'.

Cowes Bay will become 95% lender with a three-year facility from October. Terms sheets are already signed. Responding to a question on Cowes Bay's intentions, Shawn described Cowes Bay as not being a vulture, and claimed that it would be 'illogical' for Cowes Bay to pursue a predatory 'loan-to-own' scenario given that they are also taking an equity stake. I felt that commentary was disingenuous, noting the clarification that it was Cowes Bay who approached MPG, and that the McKendrick family do have a history of taking over companies at the receivership stage (Feltex, Armstrong Flooring). The Cowes Bay refinancing covers roughly the timeframe for anticipated turnaround - and after that, really who knows?

Answering the inevitable shareholder question, Shawn opined that rejecting last year's 18c per share offer looked foolish in hindsight, and that the 7c per share issue to Cowes Bay is at a 'good price' (presumably meaning, not a bargain). He says he doesn't know why the offer was rejected, and suggested asking the previous board. That was an odd brush-off - even if the board is so shambolic that the decision wasn't documented or reviewed, Julia was present throughout and could've fielded the question.

Cowes may appoint a director, but is as-yet undecided if it will. There had been no requests for a board seat from existing major shareholders (read: Masfen and Wells). Simon described major shareholders he had been in contact with as 'nodding' in agreement with the turnaround strategy.

Quote from: bulltrap on Sep 26, 2024, 07:30 PMI cringed my way through the annual shareholders meeting today - here are some of my notes and reactions:

CR offer documents will be issued within the next four weeks, and should include scenario projections through to 2027 (Shawn first called it a 'forecast' but dialled that back). The CR will allow oversubscription. After this, no further CR is planned. Although the CR doesn't directly address the debt mountain, and projections even have a near-term increase in debt, the plan is for the business turnaround to fund reducing debt.

Turning the NZ business around is expected to take 2-3 years.

As part of the growth plan for Australia, MPG is looking to purchase a plant from a failed processor. For New Zealand growth, Simon Bennett spoke highly of AGG CEO Steve Hamer, and how he'd had been increasingly tapping him for guidance in the New Zealand business. I had the impression that AGG hadn't yet been integrated with the New Zealand business, and that Steve was being offered a larger role. Some cost reduction measures in New Zealand mentioned were exiting the Bay of Plenty lease, and subleasing out the mothballed Wellington premises.

Regarding the canned AGG sale, Shawn revealed MPG had negotiated a 'not bad' offer for AGG, but ultimately declined on strategic grounds: 'don't sell your stars, instead fix your dogs'.

Cowes Bay will become 95% lender with a three-year facility from October. Terms sheets are already signed. Responding to a question on Cowes Bay's intentions, Shawn described Cowes Bay as not being a vulture, and claimed that it would be 'illogical' for Cowes Bay to pursue a predatory 'loan-to-own' scenario given that they are also taking an equity stake. I felt that commentary was disingenuous, noting the clarification that it was Cowes Bay who approached MPG, and that the McKendrick family do have a history of taking over companies at the receivership stage (Feltex, Armstrong Flooring). The Cowes Bay refinancing covers roughly the timeframe for anticipated turnaround - and after that, really who knows?

Answering the inevitable shareholder question, Shawn opined that rejecting last year's 18c per share offer looked foolish in hindsight, and that the 7c per share issue to Cowes Bay is at a 'good price' (presumably meaning, not a bargain). He says he doesn't know why the offer was rejected, and suggested asking the previous board. That was an odd brush-off - even if the board is so shambolic that the decision wasn't documented or reviewed, Julia was present throughout and could've fielded the question.

Cowes may appoint a director, but is as-yet undecided if it will. There had been no requests for a board seat from existing major shareholders (read: Masfen and Wells). Simon described major shareholders he had been in contact with as 'nodding' in agreement with the turnaround strategy.

Excellent post Bulltrap

Nice

And no you haven't encouraged me to buy any

Liquidate it already. They need a miracle, but wait Xmas is less than 3 months away

Great post Bulltrap. I noted a lack of information released with the agm presentation to the NZX. It's a cluster with Cowes not a done deal yet. In the meantime Fletchers and others suggest the building decline is going to continue for a while yet.

My patience ran out a couple of years back.  I did not have confidence that management could achieve a turnaround in the face of increased competition and a difficult market with a growing debt burden.  When your options to create some debt headroom are a CR when your SP is sinking like a stone, or selling your best performing business you need some entrepreneurial magic which I did not and do not see. 

The business needed (needs) to be nimble and a battler, but the listed corporate setup is a barrier to that.  They should have done an MBO or gone private years ago.  They are now a medium sized business which does not benefit from being on the NZX.  The board were foolish turning down that offer, quite why they thought the business was worth more is hard to gauge from the outside, thought they knew best and they clearly did not.  They are surplus to requirements

I hope they get some favourable winds (luck) to survive, but I remain happy I took a deep breath and elected to cut my losses.  It must have been an excruciating experience watching on for those who elected to believe in the never ending turnaround story...

1H25 results in (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/442843).

Served with waffle...

QuoteWhen I think about the business performance, I do not dwell a great deal on the market. Our focus has been on our turnaround and the restructuring, reducing our cost base and our market positioning for success in the future. We are focused on getting quality product to our customers in full and on time.

... and a kinda-sorta update on the overdue cap raise:

QuoteOur banking syndicate remains supportive, continuing to ensure the company has the time and space to raise capital and complete the NZ turnaround. Our facilities have been extended to the end of February 2025 as we work through the complexities associated with the announced transactions as well as consider appropriate alternatives. There is more on our plans to follow, but it is fair to say we have confidence to ask shareholders to invest again.

The old tell the bad news after close and hope nobody will notice trick ...trouble is they didn't wait until Friday lol

Enuff said

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/433107.pdf

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 28, 2024, 05:59 PMThe old tell the bad news after close and hope nobody will notice trick ...trouble is they didn't wait until Friday lol

Enuff said

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/433107.pdf

Gee 10 years ago MPG was trading around $2.00. Now its $0.05

Quote from: Minimoke on Dec 04, 2024, 03:54 PMGee 10 years ago MPG was trading around $2.00. Now its $0.05

Which is a CASR (Cyclical Annual Shrink Rate) of more than 44% pa. Pretty good in anybody's book - as long as you are a shorter.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 05, 2024, 09:24 AMWhich is a CASR (Cyclical Annual Shrink Rate) of more than 44% pa. Pretty good in anybody's book - as long as you are a shorter.

MFB had a CASR higher than that not that long ....but has recovered to be only about 40% pa at the moment

Pretty good in anybody's book - as long as you are shorter 😀 😆

What a surprise...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/443779

Meanwhile we replace another panel courtesy of Metro.

Seems Cowes. Bay no longer part of Metro's future unless I interpreted " Discussions with Cowes Bay are now at an end."

Anyway $15m capital raise on way ...but it sounds expensive exercise

Yes Winner.  Debt extension was to 28th of Feb 25. So we have a declining market and very high debt. I just wonder how much interest there will be in a CR.  Hope it survives....

Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 16, 2024, 10:01 AMYes Winner.  Debt extension was to 28th of Feb 25. So we have a declining market and very high debt. I just wonder how much interest there will be in a CR.  Hope it survives....

Who in their right mind would bother given their appalling track record.

Quote from: Basil on Dec 16, 2024, 10:18 AMWho in their right mind would bother given their appalling track record.

I dont see a Chinese White Knight on the horizon. Youd ne mad to throw money here - but there are some who like a gamble.

Metro could do a My Food Bag and have a sort recovery to get punters excited

No insider disclosures this year is very telling I think.

MPG have responded to recent feedback on houses heating up and got new glass products for retrofitting (and new installs). They're doing good deals on some lines so we went with them which will be installed this week. It's not a house I live in so I'll post some feedback when I get to hear whether the occupants notice much difference. It's costing us 16k so they better bl**dy notice the difference hahaha

Quote from: Habitz on Dec 16, 2024, 03:26 PMMPG have responded to recent feedback on houses heating up and got new glass products for retrofitting (and new installs). They're doing good deals on some lines so we went with them which will be installed this week. It's not a house I live in so I'll post some feedback when I get to hear whether the occupants notice much difference. It's costing us 16k so they better bl**dy notice the difference hahaha

If your going from Single glazed to Double Glazed or to Low E then yes they will notice the difference. Of course if your getting new Aluminum with Thermal Break as well then they will likely complain its to hot.

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 16, 2024, 10:39 AMMetro could do a My Food Bag and have a sort recovery to get punters excited

I would put SKT Sky in that grouping after righting the ship it has no growth in customer numbers but sp doubled/trebled

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Dec 16, 2024, 05:31 PMIf your going from Single glazed to Double Glazed or to Low E then yes they will notice the difference. Of course if your getting new Aluminum with Thermal Break as well then they will likely complain its to hot.

Ordered Low E Excel to double glaze the existing ali joinery. Regarding what you are saying about new ali and thermal breaks, isn't it funny how Pete wolfkamp fronts all their adverts, he's big on building standards and yet the whole industry has completely missed the issues behind the nz hothouse debacle. There was an interview after 6pm on zb tonight.

Quote from: Habitz on Dec 16, 2024, 10:01 PMOrdered Low E Excel to double glaze the existing ali joinery. Regarding what you are saying about new ali and thermal breaks, isn't it funny how Pete wolfkamp fronts all their adverts, he's big on building standards and yet the whole industry has completely missed the issues behind the nz hothouse debacle. There was an interview after 6pm on zb tonight.

Cant comment as I didnt see it. There are many complications with the changes and the building industry is getting to complicated with all the changes which is why its so expensive to build. Anyway you will have a nice warm place.

Here we go: Highly conditional takeover proposal at 8c per share - and the directors are pleased but worried it might not get through :);

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/443897

What an amazing wealth destroyer this company is / was? - wondering whether this is now the try to stay out of cemetery card for long suffering shareholders?

A couple of key caveats

Notwithstanding that due diligence would be undertaken on a strictly controlled basis, such due diligence completed by a competitor is inherently higher risk;

*Metro has previously determined that a combination of Metro and Viridian was unlikely to be approved by the Commerce Commission;

Given the hurdles and risks associated with the proposal, directors consider it unlikely that it will be in the best interests of shareholders to pursue the proposal.

$0.08 might be as good as it ever gets from this point on.

LOL, what a joke. All its worth. They will gut it and consolidate it within there existing business. I imagine if there is anyone else interested they will now have to make a play.

Cant see this happening. Com Com will surely say no.  Both Takutai who have 10.9 percent (20.2M shares) and Masfen (20.7M shares) who has 11.2 percent will crystallize huge losses.

If we look at just Masfen who first disclosed 17/2/20 the share price that day was $.25 according to Yahoo and only generally went up from there going back.

Interesting that main competitor only prepared to pay $.08, which says a lot.

Fletchers lost interest years ago in acquiring this outfit

In 2006 private equity outfit Catalyst paid $350m for Metro ....buying out founders

Funded by debt and GFC bought Metro to its knees and was bailed out by another private equity out in Crescent plus others in an equity firm debt swap.

Crescent collected the best part of $300m when Metro was floated in 2014

Now Crescent back with an opportunistic offer to 'rescue' Metro again ....for a pittance but possibly taking on Metro debt

That's how things have played out with Metro over the years....gone from a hugely successful private company to the scrape heap twice

Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 17, 2024, 12:27 PMCant see this happening. Com Com will surely say no.  Both Takutai who have 10.9 percent (20.2M shares) and Masfen (20.7M shares) who has 11.2 percent will crystallize huge losses.

If we look at just Masfen who first disclosed 17/2/20 the share price that day was $.25 according to Yahoo and only generally went up from there going back.

Interesting that main competitor only prepared to pay $.08, which says a lot.

Viridian are not the main competitor. APG are who were MPG's main client are.. APG is owned by APL and have over 50% glass market.

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Dec 17, 2024, 01:20 PMViridian are not the main competitor. APG are who were MPG's main client are.. APG is owned by APL and have over 50% glass market.

Viridian would biggest glass manufacturer in ANZ

As am aside did you know ex Metro boss Nigel Rigby is now with Viridian

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 17, 2024, 01:55 PMViridian would biggest glass manufacturer in ANZ

As am aside did you know ex Metro boss Nigel Rigby is now with Viridian

I am only talking NZ W69. Thats the market APG screwed MPG on hence where they are today. People move both ways so no surprise.

Gosh. Ex ceo sells most of his shares. Does not bode well in my opinion.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445338/attachment/435878/445338-435878.pdf

Ps Had another blue glaze panel replaced last week from Metro.

Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 20, 2025, 08:40 AMGosh. Ex ceo sells most of his shares. Does not bode well in my opinion.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445338/attachment/435878/445338-435878.pdf

Ps Had another blue glaze panel replaced last week from Metro.

Shareguy .....Are they replacing the replacements yet

Disruptions must be a bit tiring eh

Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 20, 2025, 08:40 AMGosh. Ex ceo sells most of his shares. Does not bode well in my opinion.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445338/attachment/435878/445338-435878.pdf

Ps Had another blue glaze panel replaced last week from Metro.

Near on $15K, that'll buy a nice Nissan March, and enough extra funds to get the windows tinted  ;)

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 20, 2025, 09:06 AMShareguy .....Are they replacing the replacements yet

Disruptions must be a bit tiring eh

Yes some of the same panels have been replaced 3 times.

The gift that keeps on giving:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452285

Another loss and continued support from their bankers.....for now.

They are under the cosh all right, another $8m of debt and the bankers about to pull up stumps with facility breaches in sight.  Lots of talk about growth without any specific strategies or plans mentioned.  They appear to be holding on for the market to pick up, madly cutting costs in the meantime.  Sure, good progress in DIFOT but it is like improving your stroke technique as the boat slowly sinks (reference Revenue -10.5%)

Any capital raise is going to be painful for shareholders as there is no way they will clear significant debt without some third party swooping in, and they will require sharp terms to take the risk, so significant dilution incoming?  Keep in mind they have circa 35cps debt...

At current sp they only need to make $1m for a 10% return, but that is before the coming capital raise, so you would be brave to put even speculative money into this until the after picture is clear? 


At 31 March 2025, the Group's banking facility stands at $70m, of which $65.5m (31 March 2024 $57.8m) has been drawn down. This has been presented as a current liability in the Consolidated Statement
of Financial Position as the facility has a maturity date of 31 July 2025. The banking facility contains certain conditions which must be completed prior to this date relating to the approval and formal announcement of an equity raise.

We are investigating retrofitting double glazing at the moment on a rental property. Filled in the form on Metro glass online webpage.  Finally got a reply a week later that they were wanting to organise a site visit. Their competition was around in a flash before MPG even contacted me I had quotes.

Told MPG not to bother when they rung me. The person on the phone did not even ask why. Not surprised. Just incompetent in my opinion.

A morbid fascination with this got me reading their latest annual report

According to the latest annual report the only director holding shares is

Julia Mayne who holds 25,000. The old ceo according to last disclosure sold 190,00 of his 200,000 shares. The ceo was there for some time and had intimate knowledge of the company's future prospects and decided to bail.

If that does not give you warning signs then I suggest you look at the Independent auditors report.

Material uncertainty related to going concern.

Has a net current liability balance of $31.7 million at 31 March 2025 (31 March 2024: net current
We draw attention to Note 1 in the consolidated financial statements which indicates that the Group
liability of $24.0 million) . This includes an outstanding bank borrowings balance of $65.5 million at 31
has a net current liability balance of $31.7 million at 31 March 2025 (31 March 2024: net current
March 2025 (31 March 2024: $57.8 million) with a maturity date of 31 July 2025. The Group has
liability of $24.0 million) . This includes an outstanding bank borrowings balance of $65.5 million at 31
announced it intends to shortly undertake a capital raise with the intention of reducing the bank debt,
March 2025 (31 March 2024: $57.8 million) with a maturity date of 31 July 2025. The Group has
and that it intends to renegotiate the loan facilities with the banking syndicate on mutually acceptable
announced it intends to shortly undertake a capital raise with the intention of reducing the bank debt,
terms with financial covenants that the Group can achieve. As stated in Note 1, these events and
and that it intends to renegotiate the loan facilities with the banking syndicate on mutually acceptable
conditions, along with other matters as set forth in this note, indicate that a material uncertainty exists
terms with financial covenants that the Group can achieve. As stated in Note 1, these events and
that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern. Our opinion is
conditions, along with other matters as set forth in this note, indicate that a material uncertainty exists
not modified in respect of this matter.
that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern. Our opinion is
not modified in respect of this matter.

I also suggest one looks at their increased debt and comment that they see little improvement in the market in 2026.

Bank borrowings are secured by a first-ranking composite general security deed. The Group's bank borrowing facilities as amended on 14 February 2025 currently comprise a syndicated revolving loan facility of $70 million expiring in July 2025, as well as overdraft and bank guarantees totalling $8.5 million. The Group received covenant amendments during the year.

Good luck to any holders. "Caveat emptor"

Quote from: Shareguy on May 28, 2025, 07:13 PMA morbid fascination with this got me reading their latest annual report

According to the latest annual report the only director holding shares is

Julia Mayne who holds 25,000. The old ceo according to last disclosure sold 190,00 of his 200,000 shares. The ceo was there for some time and had intimate knowledge of the company's future prospects and decided to bail.

If that does not give you warning signs then I suggest you look at the Independent auditors report.

Material uncertainty related to going concern.

Has a net current liability balance of $31.7 million at 31 March 2025 (31 March 2024: net current
We draw attention to Note 1 in the consolidated financial statements which indicates that the Group
liability of $24.0 million) . This includes an outstanding bank borrowings balance of $65.5 million at 31
has a net current liability balance of $31.7 million at 31 March 2025 (31 March 2024: net current
March 2025 (31 March 2024: $57.8 million) with a maturity date of 31 July 2025. The Group has
liability of $24.0 million) . This includes an outstanding bank borrowings balance of $65.5 million at 31
announced it intends to shortly undertake a capital raise with the intention of reducing the bank debt,
March 2025 (31 March 2024: $57.8 million) with a maturity date of 31 July 2025. The Group has
and that it intends to renegotiate the loan facilities with the banking syndicate on mutually acceptable
announced it intends to shortly undertake a capital raise with the intention of reducing the bank debt,
terms with financial covenants that the Group can achieve. As stated in Note 1, these events and
and that it intends to renegotiate the loan facilities with the banking syndicate on mutually acceptable
conditions, along with other matters as set forth in this note, indicate that a material uncertainty exists
terms with financial covenants that the Group can achieve. As stated in Note 1, these events and
that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern. Our opinion is
conditions, along with other matters as set forth in this note, indicate that a material uncertainty exists
not modified in respect of this matter.
that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern. Our opinion is
not modified in respect of this matter.

I also suggest one looks at their increased debt and comment that they see little improvement in the market in 2026.

Bank borrowings are secured by a first-ranking composite general security deed. The Group's bank borrowing facilities as amended on 14 February 2025 currently comprise a syndicated revolving loan facility of $70 million expiring in July 2025, as well as overdraft and bank guarantees totalling $8.5 million. The Group received covenant amendments during the year.

Good luck to any holders. "Caveat emptor"

Don't follow them anymore (I used to ....), but yes - quite sad to see the slow self destruction of a once market leading company with a wide moat in a quite sheltered market.

Wondering what lessons could be learned from this tragedy ... I guess from an investors perspective its obvious: use a very long bargepole before you touch anything which went through private equity. From a company perspective though - I once thought that with their market domination, local network and our geographic location they are basically bound to stay successful. Well, this was many years ago and clearly - I was wrong.

Sad story, anyway.

As they've already systematically rejected all reasonable proposals, my votes (unfortunately I still have several) for last-ditch action would be for management to cooperate on presenting a case for merger/acquisition with Viridian to the Commerce Commission.

Metro's main excuse for rejecting the CCP VI Bidco bid, was claiming that a merger would likely be blocked - but ComCom knows its mission is to prevent companies charging too much, not to bankrupt them.

Aside from canvassing competing firms and their market share, there's a pathway to approval via a 'failing firm' argument, as laid out in ComCom's Mergers and Acquisitions Guidelines (https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/91019/Mergers-and-acquisitions-Guidelines-May-2022.pdf) (Attachment E). It's clear enough to me, as a half-awake observer, that Metro broadly meets ComCom's 'failing firm' criteria. Crescent said they'd independently seek pre-approval from ComCom, but chances of approval are surely better if Metro management and auditors front up with an honest self-assessment.

Regarding that long-threatened capital raise, what can I say about moving at a snail's pace and oozing a trail of slime? One minute it's for funding growth or buying equipment (not paying down debt!), and the next minute it slips out that it's to pay down debt after all - even though it'll barely make a dent.

When Ryman last came around begging for cash, I didn't give them a cent, and have no regrets. (And it's not just because Sharesies were too useless to give me the option.)

Quote from: bulltrap on May 29, 2025, 09:02 PMAs they've already systematically rejected all reasonable proposals, my votes (unfortunately I still have several) for last-ditch action would be for management to cooperate on presenting a case for merger/acquisition with Viridian to the Commerce Commission.

Turns out that Viridian (now as Viridian NZ BidCo) finalised their submission to ComCom the same day I posted that, and it's now visible in redacted form on the ComCom case register here (https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/viridian-nz-bidco-limited-and-metro-performance-glass-limited), along with ComCom's initial response.

Metro pushed back again in an announcement (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452853/attachment/445027/452853-445027.pdf), saying that the application gives:

Quote... a misleading view of the glass industry in New Zealand, as well as Metro's own position and outlook.

Their response reads as if the application claims Metro is going out of business - a 'failing firm' argument as I suggested - but from a quick skim that doesn't seem to be Viridian's angle. That is, unless Metro is carelessly referring to redacted content, not in the public version.

Rather, Viridian gives a list of many market players and estimates of market share. These suggest Metro is well below their claimed '50% market share' (e.g. in their NZX summary (https://www.nzx.com/companies/MPG/analysis)), which I guess is many years out-of-date and only considers NZ-based processors.

Glass doesn't have to be processed locally - just as it's no longer manufactured locally - and Viridian's numbers show that local processors are indeed having their arses shipped to them by pre-processed imports.

We can get by with a 'local marketplace' of companies importing, fitting and installing those imports, and these activities have a low barrier to entry. Local processing is increasingly just a supply chain optimisation for special-case orders.

Update on ComCom case (https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/viridian-nz-bidco-limited-and-metro-performance-glass-limited) extends the decision date from today (28th July) to 20th October.

No sign of the promised Statement of Issues (https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/viridian-nz-bidco-limited-and-metro-performance-glass-limited/media-releases/commission-to-issue-statement-of-issues-on-viridians-proposed-acquisition-of-metro-performance-glass) yet.

I see ComCom released their Statement of Issues (https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/368227/Viridian-Metro-Performance-Glass-Statement-of-Issues-7-August-2025.pdf) last night.

From a quick skim, since there's a quite an array of geographical markets and services, there's not much room to move without weakening competition somewhere. Some of this hinges on whether NZ is one market or two per-island markets, which they're not too sure on yet.

The part I find most interesting is where (section 94) they outline the 'counterfactual' scenarios (what happens if merger is rejected), and put the call out for further submissions on which is more likely:

1. (redacted)
2. Metro raises new capital, refinances loans, and keeps operating with 'improved cashflow' - in particular by progressing Amari proposal

Given we (the public) aren't even being told what the options are, I interpret this as specifically requesting a submission from Metro themselves, who have apparently so far limited their engagement to second-guessing ComCom via media and NZX announcements.

As a doting (but very minor) Metro shareholder who takes the view that accepting the Amari proposal and cap raise is akin to ceremonially giving away the bride along with a dowry, I will be voting to make option 2 less likely. Let's see what's behind door number 1.

3 cents already. Someone's bailing.

Yup, something like 7.5% of the company traded today, mostly at 3c... at that scale, not many candidates for who's selling. Wonder what's up?

Looks like either Opito Trust (Masfen) or Takutai (Wells) sold out - trade volume is consistent with either ~20M-odd holding.

Quote from: bulltrap on Aug 19, 2025, 05:13 PMYup, something like 7.5% of the company traded today, mostly at 3c... at that scale, not many candidates for who's selling. Wonder what's up?

Looks like either Opito Trust (Masfen) or Takutai (Wells) sold out - trade volume is consistent with either ~20M-odd holding.

Indeed. Crystallising a nasty loss. Have made the call that the future is not bright.

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 19, 2025, 05:23 PMIndeed. Crystallising a nasty loss. Have made the call that the future is not bright.

Hmm - somebody bought these 21m shares. I guess they see it as an opportunity to make money.

We'll see in due time who was right ... possibly it will be both seller as well as buyer :);

Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 20, 2025, 09:16 AMHmm - somebody bought these 21m shares. I guess they see it as an opportunity to make money.

We'll see in due time who was right ... possibly it will be both seller as well as buyer :);

Bain Capital sell out (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457131/attachment/449963/457131-449963.pdf). No buyer notice yet.

Didn't realize they were holders.

... of that scale.

Looking back, their last SHH notice was this one (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/374564/attachment/349009/374564-349009.pdf) in 2021, which has:

QuoteSubstantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): BCC SSA I, LLC
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary shares in Metro Performance Glass Limited
(NZX: MPG)
Summary for BCC SSA I, LLC
For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 12,522,769
(b) total in class: 185,378,086
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.755%

... and that's the same and only relevant holding given in the latest Annual Report (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452285/attachment/444232/452285-444232.pdf).

But according to today's disclosure (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457131/attachment/449963/457131-449963.pdf):

QuoteSummary for Bain Capital Credit, LP

For last disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 21,968,422
(b) total in class: 185,378,086
(c) total percentage held in class: 11.851%

Looks like big old porkies to big old me.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 20, 2025, 09:16 AMHmm - somebody bought these 21m shares. I guess they see it as an opportunity to make money.

We'll see in due time who was right ... possibly it will be both seller as well as buyer :);

Seems like someone has bought 21,968,422 off Bain Capital Credit, LP. And bought  21,968,422 off Bain Capital Investments (Europe) Limited.

Combines is 23.7% of issued shares

Quote from: bulltrap on Aug 20, 2025, 11:15 AM... of that scale.

Looking back, their last SHH notice was this one (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/374564/attachment/349009/374564-349009.pdf) in 2021, which has:

... and that's the same and only relevant holding given in the latest Annual Report (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452285/attachment/444232/452285-444232.pdf).

But according to today's disclosure (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457131/attachment/449963/457131-449963.pdf):

Looks like big old porkies to big old me.

Hmm, yes - looks on that notice a bit flaky.

Don't really follow them anymore, and not sure where the difference is coming from.

Maybe they did take the various entities (looks like several of their funds did include MPG) as separate owners and never exceeded the 5% on most of them. Or maybe it has something to do with the fundrises (they had some, didn't they)?

I guess quite easy to check with the person who announced the sell. Might well be some lack of announcement (or not), but not sure I'd see at this stage a porkie.

What benefits would you see for mixing this up?

Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 20, 2025, 11:43 AMHmm, yes - looks on that notice a bit flaky.

Don't really follow them anymore, and not sure where the difference is coming from.

Maybe they did take the various entities (looks like several of their funds did include MPG) as separate owners and never exceeded the 5% on most of them. Or maybe it has something to do with the fundrises (they had some, didn't they)?

The disclosed holding for BCC SSA I, alphabet soup apparently derived from 'Bain Capital Special Situations Asia' is unchanged from previous disclosures. But the other holdings, their combined treatment, and notably the holding under 'Bain Capital Distressed and Special Situations' appear to be previously undisclosed.

Whether anyone holding or acquiring shares might have decided otherwise, had it been adequately disclosed that 'Bain Capital Distressed and Special Situations' was a significant holder, is a valid question.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 20, 2025, 11:43 AMWhat benefits would you see for mixing this up?

That's essentially asking why significant shareholder disclosure regimes exist. Not sure but I'll look into it.

MPG notice of holding

Anthony David Frith in their capacity as the trustee of the Ototara Trust
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary shares
Summary for Ototara Trust
For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 10,666,666
(b) total in class: 185,378,086
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.754%

Quote from: Cod on Aug 22, 2025, 09:51 AMMPG notice of holding

Anthony David Frith in their capacity as the trustee of the Ototara Trust

A bit of armchair sleuthing through the NZ Companies Register (https://www.companyhub.nz/companyDetails.cfm?nzbn=9429037111663), following the 'ant trail', puts Mr Frith within the Masfen sphere of influence.

Supposing that Masfen, Wells and Frith, with ~30% of the company, along with unknowns unaccounted for by SSH notices:

• whoever picked up the remaining ~5% dumped by Bain
• any holdings picked up by Viridian in support of their takeover bid, and aligned interests

... all decided to vote against the recap, it could be a close-run thing.

Another interesting thing about this vote, is that all related resolutions are being voted as Ordinary Resolutions, requiring only a simple majority to approve.

However, from my lay viewpoint (IANAL), the resolutions taken together effectively constitute a takeover of Metro by Amari. That is, through Amari acquiring a 51% shareholding, Metro will legally become its subsidiary. In fairness, this really ought to require a Special Resolution, approved by at least a 75% supermajority, as would be required if the takeover were via Scheme of Arrangement.

Masfen and Wells together would be able to block a Special Resolution if they chose to.

Quote from: bulltrap on Jul 28, 2025, 10:19 PMUpdate on ComCom case (https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/viridian-nz-bidco-limited-and-metro-performance-glass-limited) extends the decision date from today (28th July) to 20th October.

The outcome out today is that Viridian withdrew their application (https://www.comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/news-and-events/2025/viridian-withdraws-application-to-acquire-metro-performance-glass/), apparently at the last minute (Friday 17th)...

QuoteAt the time the application was withdrawn, the Commission had unresolved issues with the transaction's potential effect on competition, although it had reached no final decision.

The Commission's case register will be updated in due course.

Sounds like the outcome would've been a no-go, I would guess in part because the cap raise improved Metro's chances of keeping the race to the bottom going.

Disc: I voted against the cap raise but was pissing in the wind. Participated in the cap raise (no choice really) but sold out afterwards. Will continue to watch from the sidelines...

40 for 1 consolidation

Who would have ever though MPG at 15 bucks

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 25, 2026, 09:50 AM40 for 1 consolidation

Who would have ever though MPG at 15 bucks

Then wait for the envitable Cap Raise to pay the rest of the debt mountain they have.

No brainer if they wanted to survive.

Thing is their corporate costs are crazy and operationally the buisness is hopeless.

Whats going to change? They will never get the largest client back as they are producing their own glass

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 25, 2026, 09:50 AM40 for 1 consolidation

Who would have ever though MPG at 15 bucks

Gee a company with shares worth $15 a pop. They must be pretty good. I'll have to buy some.

Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 25, 2026, 11:12 AMGee a company with shares worth $15 a pop. They must be pretty good. I'll have to buy some.

IPO'd at $1.75 lol

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 25, 2026, 12:25 PMIPO'd at $1.75 lol

Might go back there or even lower from its new $15 level lol

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 25, 2026, 12:25 PMIPO'd at $1.75 lol

Jeepers. Currently trading at 3.9 cents!

I think the new share price will around $1.56 not $15  :)

Did my sums wrong lol ... decimal point in wrong place

Post consolidation $1.56

Below IPO price still?


Reckon My Food Bag will do this one day

Metro done some wonderful stuff lately but things stil not going to expectations ....basically break even by looks of it.

At least breakeven better than a loss

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/464524.pdf

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 13, 2026, 03:45 PMMetro done some wonderful stuff lately but things stil not going to expectations ....basically break even by looks of it.

At least breakeven better than a loss

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/464524.pdf

Interesting - some years ago I had a chat with Mark Malpass (STU) and we talked at that stage about MPG (with MPG and STU sharing some resources in Christchurch).

At that stage STU was doing ok-ish and MPG was doing really bad. Who knows, maybe things are starting to change ...

But hey - manybe they both are going to pass the bottom and prepare for an amazing future?

Outrageous expectations/guidance given September

Said expect full year sales to be up 8% ..implying say $232m ..bear in mind they knew what H1 sales were

Today they sales going to be 9% below that expectation

Means H2 sales will be about 17% below expectations ...in spite of the green shoots that were appearing lol

Not very good at guessing what's going to happen are they .....17% a big miss eh

I see since the share consolidation the SP is in a downtrend. Have MPG sorted out their quality issues is the question. If they have not I would be running for the hills.

Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 13, 2026, 04:23 PMI see since the share consolidation the SP is in a downtrend. Have MPG sorted out their quality issues is the question. If they have not I would be running for the hills.

I reckon there will be another CR so they can pay the debt and has some cash to splash.

Still doesnt change a thing operationally for the business.

They have lost there major customer which was over 50% of the business and cant get any of it back as they manufacturer their own glass (APG)

To many execs taken big fat salaries