StockTalk

Feeling the love. Back above $21. Naaice.

But will it hold?

Those who lowered their DCA's in the recent lows beginning to smile.

It's all looking good eh leftie

Gloomy times all over .... onwards and upwards

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 06, 2022, 01:43 PMFeeling the love. Back above $21. Naaice.

But will it hold?

Those who lowered their DCA's in the recent lows beginning to smile.

Hard to say as she's a volatile beast but longer term she's a gem. PS-Divvy should hit bank account today to boot.

Hard to say as she's a volatile beast but longer term she's a gem. PS-Divvy should hit bank account today to boot.
[/quote]

Yep too early to call. But the Divvies a help.

So FPH share price recovering well - close week at $21.41

That's 13% above recent lows .... sounds better than saying only 43% below its high...... could say the down trend from those high has been broken and a new up trend is forming

Maybe its falling NZD and/or interest rates that's driving the rise but whatever the reasons the love is returning to FPH

If love is measured by its PE ratio that love has returned big time ....PE now 43 on FY23 forecast earnings

Go FPH - $25 beckons soon ..... esp if they come out with a trading update

Yes agree . I think the nz$ has a lot to do with it. A great company and should be in everyone's long term portfolio.

Good to see you guys optimistic.

Quite a few in my portfolio feeling the love lately...... makes a welcome change!

hospital.PNG
Hospitalisations creeping up again. Reckon the bottom is in? Would love to hold these again but scared of high PE ratios. Sure you can argue it is justified based on industry comparisons but is it justified based on risk vs reward?

Quote from: Plata on Jul 18, 2022, 09:53 PMhospital.PNG
Hospitalisations creeping up again. Reckon the bottom is in? Would love to hold these again but scared of high PE ratios. Sure you can argue it is justified based on industry comparisons but is it justified based on risk vs reward?

Feel the Fear but do it anyway, $50 sp within 5 yrs.

Phillips, a major competitor to FPH in the USA sleep apnea market is having difficulties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/07/23/cpap-machine-recall-sleep-apnea/

Lots of interesting info' about the USA market........ will this work in FPH's favour? We shall see.

Craig's underweight on FPH

Lower flow: cut to underweight
 FPH shares have outperformed since the result...
FPH shares have recovered over 10% from their June lows, and over 5% since the May result, which we believe reflects 1) the fall in 10-yr T-bills, supporting valuations for defensive duration assets such as FPH 2) increasing Covid hospitalisations and 3) a weaker NZ$. The last two points have lead some investors to conclude FPH will provide a better than expected trading update at its ASM on August 24. We beg to differ.
...but we believe the optimism is misplaced
While the reported number of Covid hospitalisations in the US and Europe has increased in recent weeks, we believe demand for FPH's products to treat Covid is down sharply. Most of the growth in Covid hospitalisations is being driven by an increase in "co-incidental" Covid infections, i.e. patients who were admitted to hospital primarily to treat an ailment other than Covid, but who have tested positive. Data from LA County suggests that the proportion of co-incidental Covid cases has increased from <20% of reported hospitalisations in August last year to c.60% this year. After adjusting for this, we estimate "true" Covid hospitalisations are down 48% YoY year to date. This is supported by a study from Houston Methodist that found that the proportion of Covid hospitalisations that are severe enough to require advanced respiratory support (such as invasive ventilation or High Flow) is 55% lower for the Omicron strain compared to Delta. Covid demand for FPH's devices and consumables seems set to fall materially in FY23. Stats NZ export data, which we think is a good proxy for FPH's total sales (i.e. Hospital + OSA), is tracking down 21% YoY in the June qtr on an adjusted basis (raw data is -34%; see discussion inside the note). The comps will get even tougher in the Sep qtr as FPH laps the Delta outbreak in the US in Aug/Sep last year.
Downgrades ahead: cut to Underweight, $21 price target (-8%)
FPH will face a "double whammy" in FY23 of declining revenue (which we now forecast will fall 16% to $1.41bn, -10% below consensus), and higher costs (guidance is for 13% ccy overhead growth, likely to be partly offset by firmer gross margins as freight costs ease). We have further trimmed our NPAT estimate to $252m (-33% YoY and -11% below consensus). FPH is a quality growth company, but looming downgrades (in our view) combined with a still elevated multiple (44x fwd PE consensus and 49x fwd CIPe), suggest to us the shares will struggle over the next 6-12 months, and we downgrade our recommendation to Underweight with a revised $21 TP (-8%).

Gee shareguy ... not ood from Craigs

Expecting downgrades coming up

At least they didn't say SELL

Always good to be cautious.

From a TA perspective, a number of shares such as FPH and GNE are edging close to a 'golden cross (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp).'  Will there be upside breaks? Much depends on this month's results commentary and news IMO.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 31, 2022, 11:43 AMAlways good to be cautious.

From a TA perspective, a number of shares such as FPH and GNE are edging close to a 'golden cross (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp).'  Will there be upside breaks? Much depends on this month's results commentary and news IMO.

Ari Wald a TA guru doesn't see golden crosses as an absolutely bullish signal for the market

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 31, 2022, 12:49 PMAri Wald a TA gurubdoesn't see golden crosses as an absolutely bullish signal for the market

No signal is "absolutely bullish" ... looking into the (always unknown) future.

The constraint that past performance does not predict future performance always applies to share prices as well.

However - one thing is certain: A Golden Cross is ALWAYS a great indicator that you should have bought roughly a couple of months  ago ... It adds so much to improving your hindsight ...

Discl: holding (FPH, not golden crosses  ;D ) ;

Edit: having said all that - who was talking about golden crosses for FPH? Still ways to go until we reach that ...

A  'golden cross' (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp) is a bullish signal as it relates to a particular stock.... and of course it doesn't always relate to the general market.

Click on the words above and all is revealed.

Mean concensus by 10 analysts is Outperform with avg tp of $23.22 so take Craigs analysis with a grain of salt i reckon.

The much touted golden cross coming up soon

At the rate the 200MA is going down the 50MA should cross at about $25.50

Then we can say FPH is really bullish

But as Peter said when a golden cross actually happens its the signal you should have bought a month or so ago

Bolly bonds hinting at a break out

Have been trying to get some under $20 but no luck.  FPH busy recruiting for new production lines in Auckland.  Fishers and other buying last quarter.  A good bottom draw share, which my broker says will be taken over one day and great buying under $25(his opinion).

Not cheap but I have learnt that quality costs.  Added to my position this morning.   

Ouch..... some would say it's a downgrade..... some would say it is already priced in. Some would say FPH just being realistic and it's BAU......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397210

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides guidance for first half of FY23

Auckland, New Zealand, 19 August 2022 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today provided revenue and net profit after tax guidance for the first half of the 2023 financial year ending 30 September 2022.

At current exchange rates, and assuming a continuation of trading conditions in the first four months, the company expects operating revenue for the first half of the 2023 financial year to be approximately $670 million and net profit after tax to be approximately $85 million to $95 million.

This would represent an increase in revenue on pre-pandemic levels (1HFY20: $570.9M) and a decline in revenue compared to the prior comparable period (1HFY22: $900.0M).

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, "As we detailed in our full year results announcement, we dramatically increased production in response to the pandemic. As a result, we sold approximately ten years' worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.

"Our customers also purchased a considerable amount of hospital consumables in preparation for each wave of COVID-19. During the most recent waves of the Omicron variant, fewer patients have required hospitalisation and respiratory support. We believe customer stock levels have been elevated during our first half, which impacts our short-term sales.

Ouch indeed Leftie

I don't think many saw such a decline in sales coming

Be interesting how market reacts

Hope the share price doesn't do an A2

Indeed Winner...... SP down to $19.30 in early trades. GLH.

That 10 yrs sales in 1 year coming back to hurt holders.

Analysts were saying H1 revenues 717m and npat 121m

so revenues might not be a surprise but margins seem to have hurt profit

A blue chip company going through a re balance.  I see it as a buying opportunity.  What was the share price again before the pandemic started....and since then what has happened...

Ugly numbers.  Many parallels to ATM with heavy stocking pre-pandemic and now sales falling off.
Coincidence that the decline in FPH started within a month of the decline of ATM ?

Ugly numbers is going to lead to analysts recalibrating their long term growth assumptions...10 years hardware sales in 2 years, (gosh have they ever explained it in anywhere near such stark terms before ?)

I can see some serious analysts downgrades coming.  Quick back of the envelope, if they make $90m (mid point of guidance this half and say $95m in 2H that's $185m / 577.3m shares = 32 cps.  Even after this mornings decline at $19.60 they trade at approx 61 times FY23 earnings....WOW.

Current consensus is for 49 cps in FY23 growing to 64cps in FY24 and 76 cps in FY25
I can see analysts radially pulling back on those projections and seriously downgrading their DCF valuation.

If I held I would SELL.  Thankfully I have never believed in the hype of super high PE stocks with modest growth rates.

First of 3 downgrades to come ?
Lot of people though the dog was way too bearish with his $15 call earlier this year.
Even at $15 they'd be on a FY23 of ~ 47 which now looks stretched to me.

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 19, 2022, 11:11 AMA blue chip company going through a re balance.  I see it as a buying opportunity.  What was the share price again before the pandemic started....and since then what has happened...

What has happened ,,,,,, profits are now less than late 2019

FPH annual (rolling 2 halves) sales now 31% down from their peak ..... A2 annual sales down 31% from their peak

That's so spooky

Wonder who will recover the best?

Share price up 4% from its day low .....that's good

• sign

Wonder what fisher funds reckon? Still buying more?

Quote from: Old mate on Aug 19, 2022, 12:18 PMWonder what fisher funds reckon? Still buying more?

Fisher funds have yet to do a mea culpa for their ATM stake so their usual pattern of buying more on the dips will likely follow.  Whether that leads to future underperformance or outperformance remains to be seen.

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 19, 2022, 11:49 AMWhat has happened ,,,,,, profits are now less than late 2019

You got me thinking Winner.  According to Annual report I have EPS of

2019. $36.02 eps
2020. $49.06
2021. $90.4
2022. $65.0
2023. $43.05 Craig's  forecast

Share price hit $20 November 2019.  Even with todays announcement 2023 EPS would of thought to be above 2019.

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 19, 2022, 03:14 PMYou got me thinking Winner.  According to Annual report I have EPS of

2019. $36.02 eps
2020. $49.06
2021. $90.4
2022. $65.0
2023. $43.05 Craig's  forecast

Share price hit $20 November 2019.  Even with todays announcement 2023 EPS would of thought to be above 2019.

I reckon Sep19 was really the last pre-covid norm

Rolling annual earnings at Sept19 were 233m or 40.7 cents/share

Rolling annual earnings this Sept22 likely to be 236m or 40,9 cents / share

So lets say Sept19 and Sept22 annual (rolling 2 halves) earnings are basically the same

Sep19 share price was just over $17 .... PE over 40

So today share price say $20 - pe nearly 50

I like this bit of sage wisdom The moment you pay top dollar for top dollar, you are hoping both the P/E and the margin is sustained indefinitely.


Even at $20 maybe paying top dollar and hoping for the PE (high 40s) is sustained and more importantly the margin is sustained (and today's comments about margin a worry eh)

So shareguy that's how I see the present situation - profits back to late 2019 levels with a bit of headwind

But markets are funny things eh so maybe all this will wash over and we will be back to normality and a share price of $35 again

Thanks Winner. Thay say second half is going to be better, let's hope so.

The pandemic has accelerated growth.  FPH are now in a lot more countries so consumables should benefit long-term.

I still think it's a quality blue-chip bottom draw share that's going through a few teething problems. 

Will be interesting to see what Craig's say after downgrading end of July to $21.

Have had a substantial holding for over 15 years.  The only mistake was listening to my broker and selling some at $4 then I think $12 as he said "overvalued". 

Quote from: Basil on Aug 19, 2022, 11:22 AMUgly numbers.  Many parallels to ATM with heavy stocking pre-pandemic and now sales falling off.
Coincidence that the decline in FPH started within a month of the decline of ATM ?

Ugly numbers is going to lead to analysts recalibrating their long term growth assumptions...10 years hardware sales in 2 years, (gosh have they ever explained it in anywhere near such stark terms before ?)

I can see some serious analysts downgrades coming.  Quick back of the envelope, if they make $90m (mid point of guidance this half and say $95m in 2H that's $185m / 577.3m shares = 32 cps.  Even after this mornings decline at $19.60 they trade at approx 61 times FY23 earnings....WOW.

Current consensus is for 49 cps in FY23 growing to 64cps in FY24 and 76 cps in FY25
I can see analysts radially pulling back on those projections and seriously downgrading their DCF valuation.

If I held I would SELL.  Thankfully I have never believed in the hype of super high PE stocks with modest growth rates.

First of 3 downgrades to come ?
Lot of people though the dog was way too bearish with his $15 call earlier this year.
Even at $15 they'd be on a FY23 of ~ 47 which now looks stretched to me.

Ugly numbers indeed, still a good company I think but at present share price of about 20 dollars not a good investment I would have thought.
Full year NPAT looks now possibly as low as $200m for the 2023 financial year. How low do we think the Share Price is likely to go. Even on a 2023 P/E of 30 if say NPAT turns out to be close to 200m than the SP would be about halve what it is now. And P/E will still be 30, that seems high for a company earning the same as 4 years ago.

Quote from: Stockgathering on Aug 19, 2022, 04:58 PMUgly numbers indeed, still a good company I think but at present share price of about 20 dollars not a good investment I would have thought.
Full year NPAT looks now possibly as low as $200m for the 2023 financial year. How low do we think the Share Price is likely to go. Even on a 2023 P/E of 30 if say NPAT turns out to be close to 200m than the SP would be about halve what it is now. And P/E will still be 30, that seems high for a company earning the same as 4 years ago.

Welcome to the forum, I couldn't agree more.  In addition to fundamentals I see from a TA point of view the long term downtrend from ~ $37 in Sept 2020 is still intact.

"The moment you pay top dollar for top dollar, you are hoping both the P/E and the margin is sustained indefinitely" Winner.

I think its clear that along with sales declining sharply both the margin and the metrics this trades on are very fragile and vulnerable.
Took quite a while for ATM to lose its "market darling" status so I expect it will take a while for reality to bite with this one too.

Great long term hold, profit still higher than pre covid levels so around $21 fair value for now based on that alone, too busy skiing to listen to a lot of barking. PS-Not selling any of my good sized holding.

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 19, 2022, 12:00 PMFPH annual (rolling 2 halves) sales now 31% down from their peak ..... A2 annual sales down 31% from their peak

That's so spooky

Wonder who will recover the best?

Completely different animals, one is a one trick non essential pony whereas the other sells into over 120 countries and is an essential product.

Quote from: kasper on Aug 19, 2022, 09:19 PMCompletely different animals, one is a one trick non essential pony whereas the other sells into over 120 countries and is an essential product.

Spot on .... but I'm not comparing company finances per se

More a study of market and investor behavior / sentiment - like how do markets / investors / punters / sentiment react when high flying stocks on high multiples have significant sales decline and margin problems - in this regard there is a simiarity between A2 and FPH

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 20, 2022, 10:55 AMSpot on .... but I'm not comparing company finances per se

More a study of market and investor behavior / sentiment - like how do markets / investors / punters / sentiment react when high flying stocks on high multiples have significant sales decline and margin problems - in this regard there is a simiarity between A2 and FPH

I know exactly where you are coming from even if others lack objectivity.  It will take quite a while for investors to fall out of love (sentiment) with FPH which for many years has been perceived as a blue chip market darling which could do no wrong just like it took a long time for investors to fall out of love with previous market darlings like RYM and ATM.   I think a very big part of the market psychology with blue chip market darlings is early investors in stocks like these have done extraordinarily well.  Because of the level of embedded profits many investors develop "attachment" issues. 

The bottom line as I see it is they have had 10 years hardware sales crammed into 2 years because of the pandemic.  I think objectively people should just soak that statement the company made in and mull over the impact on hardware sales going forward.   To me, when you bring forward demand like that in such a huge way its as certain as night follows day that subsequent hardware demand will be very seriously affected.

Combine that almost certain large reduction in demand with lower margins and the really lofty metrics this trades on and from a fundamental perspective its hard to see any other outcome than a material decline from here.  From a TA point of view the unbroken downtrend that started at ~ $37 just on two years ago speaks for itself.

My investment thesis when chasing big bucks is that when TA and FA both make a really compelling case for a buy there is almost always really serious money to be made.  In my opinion the exact opposite is the case here and I expect the well entrenched downtrend to continue for quite some time.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 20, 2022, 01:16 PMI know exactly where you are coming from even if others lack objectivity.  It will take quite a while for investors to fall out of love (sentiment) with FPH which for many years has been perceived as a blue chip market darling which could do no wrong just like it took a long time for investors to fall out of love with previous market darlings like RYM and ATM.   I think a very big part of the market psychology with blue chip market darlings is early investors in stocks like these have done extraordinarily well.  Because of the level of embedded profits many investors develop "attachment" issues. 

The bottom line as I see it is they have had 10 years hardware sales crammed into 2 years because of the pandemic.  I think objectively people should just soak that statement the company made in and mull over the impact on hardware sales going forward.   To me, when you bring forward demand like that in such a huge way its as certain as night follows day that subsequent hardware demand will be very seriously affected.

Combine that almost certain large reduction in demand with lower margins and the really lofty metrics this trades on and from a fundamental perspective its hard to see any other outcome than a material decline from here.  From a TA point of view the unbroken downtrend that started at ~ $37 just on two years ago speaks for itself.

My investment thesis when chasing big bucks is that when TA and FA both make a really compelling case for a buy there is almost always really serious money to be made.  In my opinion the exact opposite is the case here and I expect the well entrenched downtrend to continue for quite some time.

Well, I guess its quite easy to kick anything or anybody while they are down  ... and that's the reason so many people like to do it. Does not mean its right, but it is easy. As well  - as we all know, if a stock is in an uptrend than the chances are 60% that it stays there, and the same is true for a downtrend ... i.e. it is reasonably safe to kick a downtrending stock and still appear as an expert.

So - yes, the odds are with you (and if its just to cater for this over- (or under-?) swing of negative hype coming up). 

Still no reason to highlight only the negatives and ignore the positives.

FPH is an outstandingly successful company producing stuff people need.

They do make part of their money with selling the initial hardware (like car manufacturers making money when they sell their new cars), but they actually make more moneny with selling all the necessary consumables (in the car industry this would be spares, various filters, belts, spark plugs, bulbs).

If FPH sold 10 years worth of hardware in only 2 years, then these ventilators (or whatever the correct term is) will need (if used) as well 10 times the amount of consumables.

I would not expect the healthindustry to stop buying new FPH products for the next 8 years, but I would expect new ventilator sales to drop somewhat ... and consumables to go up and stay up.

I'd expect a return to the median growth ... and actually, I think that's were we already are. Mabye a wee under swing, but hey - who can really time the bottom ... and from there it will go up again.

Pretty sure that anybody buying FPH at todays prices will be pelased in a decade to come, but sure - if you can not only talk about bottoms, but are able to recognise and seize them in real time, than feel free to pick the bottom.

Good luck ... though I guess it is a bit like playing musical chairs with hundred participants ond just one chair, but hey .... the one getting the chair will brag for eternity and the other 99 will just tell porkies.

BlackPeter .....you didn't mention that Lewis said they got confidence that they can continue to build on their proven 50-year track record and reach more patients with their respiratory therapies.

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 19, 2022, 12:00 PMFPH annual (rolling 2 halves) sales now 31% down from their peak ..... A2 annual sales down 31% from their peak

That's so spooky

Wonder who will recover the best?

Lol I think you already know the answer to your question but maybe it was a trick question? On another note I see after 5 downgrading+5 unchanged analysts the avg tp is now $22.26 with the PE dropping to 35 next year on projected earnings so all just a temporal storm in a teacup really, but I'm sure there will be endless bored barking for a while yet from some kennels.

Finished up 3.1%, not bad after a down day on the US, bit of an overreaction by a few punters on Friday I reckon.

Good article by Tim Hunter in NBR if you can access

The madness of crowds
Expectations of the gains from Covid for Fisher & Paykel were bullish, until they weren't.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/hunters-corner...ess-of-crowds/


From our vantage point in what was once the future, we can see the market miscalculated F&P Healthcare's performance by billions of dollars, which is a lot. The result for some investors was probably costly, so it's worth looking back to see what we can learn.

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 26, 2022, 03:19 PMGood article by Tim Hunter in NBR if you can access

The madness of crowds
Expectations of the gains from Covid for Fisher & Paykel were bullish, until they weren't.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/hunters-corner...ess-of-crowds/


From our vantage point in what was once the future, we can see the market miscalculated F&P Healthcare's performance by billions of dollars, which is a lot. The result for some investors was probably costly, so it's worth looking back to see what we can learn.

Only costly if you sell for a loss otherwise it will be back over $30 in due course.

Yeap, I am very wary of really crowded trades in super high multiple priced for perfection market darling stocks.  What can possibly go wrong they all cry and all I can think is if you pay "priced for perfection" multiples its only a matter of time before the imperfections show themselves up.

Quote from: kasper on Aug 26, 2022, 03:30 PMOnly costly if you sell for a loss otherwise it will be back over $30 in due course.

I have this strange sense of Deja Vu.  Maybe you said that about some other former market darling 😜

Quote from: Basil on Aug 26, 2022, 03:32 PMI have this strange sense of Deja Vu.  Maybe you said that about some other former market darling 😜

You could say that about SUM others also that reached $15.69 a while back, those punters will need to wait a bit also and so the list goes on.

Updated the chart in that NBR article -- added 2023 based on forum posters/analysts share price and earnings forecasts

Could say nothing much learnt - heading to the same outcome

00000fph.JPG

The F&P performance is sort of like the All Blacks losing all of their last years games, in a regular season with a full book of matches. Hope it gets back is not a strategy.  Times may have been tough but where was the risk management and FX management plan.  What do you think.  Top stock by capitalization in NZX.  In everybody's kiwisaver etc.  What do you think?  :(  :(  :(

must be tough being a guru broker analyst churning out spreadsheets and regurgitating company news to come up with a guess as to what the share price might be worth.

Guesses for FPH at the moment range from $17.10 to $26,00 .... realists to optimists some might say

But at the end of the day it seems their guesses follow the share price - both up and down - share price goes down we better lower our guess etc

And to think many are enraptured with broker forecasts.

Here's how consensus target prices have moved with the FPH share price

00000fphtargetevolve.JPG

WOW...that's a damming image.   

Spending on capex to expand capacity is usually a good sign:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398048

In short: FPH buying 105ha in Karaka for $275m subject to OIO approval for the building of a new campus.

Goodness gracious - FPH close at $18.90 yesterday

Not just a 52 week low but its share price is back to where it was about 3 years ago (2019)

Not surprising really as current profits are about the same as back then

Still valued at an outrageously high PE - >50 times forecast earnings

The big question is can FPH live up to these high expectations to justify that valuation multiple .... or will come this time next year it will have been 'rerated' down to something more reasonable with a share price of $10 to $15

imho can only fall in these macro conditions, US Fed policy, World Geo Politic, NZRB, NZ Finance Minister Giveaway Policies emptying the Countries financial resources, no indication over years FPH management adds value, no turnaround seen. 

As many individuals position deteriorates cashing in underperforming investments like many managed fund and shares like FPH will be seen as an easy positive solution to maintain lifestyle in a time of cash shortfalls.

:o

Personally, I believe that all the share price gains over the last 2.5 years are ephemeral, much the same as house prices over that period.  I am now going back 3-5 years in charts, to see what price the company would probably have been had it not been for the Covid insanity.  If you do that for FPH you obtain amazing clarity.  Its simply returned to its long term trend line, and is now probably on track to test some old support levels as the bear market takes hold.

NOTE:  pricing is in Aussie dollars as this is a chart of the ASX FPH (as are all my charts)

FPH.png

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 07, 2022, 08:25 AMGoodness gracious - FPH close at $18.90 yesterday

Not just a 52 week low but its share price is back to where it was about 3 years ago (2019)

Not surprising really as current profits are about the same as back then

Still valued at an outrageously high PE - >50 times forecast earnings

The big question is can FPH live up to these high expectations to justify that valuation multiple .... or will come this time next year it will have been 'rerated' down to something more reasonable with a share price of $10 to $15

As you know, I have been calling this as a $15 stock for quite some time, from back when it was ~ $30 to be exact.  If it weren't for the fact this is N.Z.'s largest leading blue chip stock with widespread institutional holdings supported by ongoing inflows from Kiwisaver contributions I believe it would already be back at that level.

I believe we are going to see a fundamental rerating in the year ahead in a similar vein to how the former market darling ATM was rerated.

Downgrades always comes in 3's (Balance)

For portfolio protection in a bear market this is a great and very liquid stock to short in my opinion.

Interesting chart ... and you might well be correct re FPH (assuming that the additional Covid business was advance purchase, which may or may not be true).

Obviously - this additional hardware in the hospitals might as well give the sales of consumables (that's where the margins are) a permanent boost, but we shall see.

Not so sure I would underwrite your statement re the real estate market, but this is another thread.

In my view was the money the RB's of the world printed just the fuel for the inflation ... and real estate just happened to inflate faster than (e.g.) food or now energy and soon wages. It all inflates and prices will go up and stay there. Of course - at some stage inflation will get back under control (arguably with real estate we are already there), but this does not mean that prices will (significantly) drop from here, they will just slower rise from their new base.

Anyway - back to FPH ...

No worries folks..... it's an up day today....(so far.)  ::)

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 24, 2022, 08:30 AMPhillips, a major competitor to FPH in the USA sleep apnea market is having difficulties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/07/23/cpap-machine-recall-sleep-apnea/
Lots of interesting info' about the USA market........ will this work in FPH's favour? We shall see

The above posted back in July...... now the FDA is involved and Phillips is having more issues and a major recall.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/certain-philips-respironics-masks-bipap-cpap-machines-recalled-due-safety-issue-magnets-may-affect

Good news for FPH (possibly the reason for the SP rise in the last couple of days.)

Still headed for $15 imho as the valuation is just too high in a world where the discount rate of future earnings is rising and they trade on such a high PE

A great company but not a great investment at these levels.

Quote from: Arbroath on Sep 08, 2022, 09:50 PMStill headed for $15 imho as the valuation is just too high in a world where the discount rate of future earnings is rising and they trade on such a high PE

A great company but not a great investment at these levels.

While analysts come up with things like this it will always be 'over priced' until punters realise that most analysts have ulterior motives

In media "Citigroup also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a A$23.50 price target."

I reckon if I asked Lewis Gradon would he pay $11 billion for such a company he'd reply "No way" and laugh his head off

Quote from: Arbroath on Sep 08, 2022, 09:50 PMStill headed for $15 imho as the valuation is just too high in a world where the discount rate of future earnings is rising and they trade on such a high PE

A great company but not a great investment at these levels.

I agree based on current earnings and am on record as calling this as substantially overvalued as far back as when it was $30 when it was already in a confirmed downtrend.  Anyone who listened to that barking should be pleased.

In addition, I think the potential for further downgrades and revisions is VERY high with 10 years hardware sales heavily compressed into 2 years.

I've never been enthusiastic about buying market darlings on super elevated metrics.

they say share prices follow earnings

Sure has in FPH's case ... and as the NPAT trend shown below the share price could/should go even lower

Guidance/forecast NPAT F23 back to where it was in 2018

Maybe the Phillips recall of masks will add billions of sales to FPH top line and a new trend will start

00000fph.JPG

Downtrend remains intact to a fresh 52 week low of $18.50, (down another 8% in September), despite the massive fall in the $kiwi this month.  A 2.1% dividend yield and trades on 55 times consensus FY23 earnings.  Hmmm   https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
Still makes for a fantastic short opportunity in my opinion.

I reckon there is potential here for this to go under $10 at some stage in 2023 (28 times FY23 average forecast earnings).
Worse, one wonders how much the E of that PE is under threat with a decade's worth of hardware sold in the last 2 years.

Headlines at market close today

F&P Healthcare drags market lower

On the equities market front, healthcare manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare slumped 4.4% to $18.73 and traded the most volume across the index – almost $11m.

Interest rates rising at great rate ..... wonder what FPH valuation is if analysts used a 10% discount rate .....or even higher than 10%

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/m...s-market-lower

Result better than Fbar expected

Forecast NPAT of $88m Actual $96m

Forecast DPS $.011    Actual $17.5

DRP returned

FPH 1H FY23 result out....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/403204..... as Shareguy say's it's not all bad......

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2023 financial year

• 57% decline in net profit after tax to $95.9 million, 65% decline in constant currency.
• 23% decline in operating revenue to $690.6 million, 27% decline in constant currency.
• 35% decline in Hospital operating revenue to $438.7 million, 37% decline in constant currency.
• 23% decline in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 68% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 10% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $84.2 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 17.5 cps (H1 FY22: 17.0 cps).

leftie - good, bad or ho hum

Not bad considering last FY was exceptional..... as FPH say:

For the six months ended 30 September 2022, total operating revenue was $690.6 million, above the $670 million guided by the company in its August trading update.

While revenue was down 23% on the first half of the prior year (or 27% in constant currency), this was a 21% increase on the comparable pre-pandemic period, being the first half of the 2020 financial year ($570.9 million). Net profit after tax for the first half was $95.9 million, a 57% decline from the prior comparable period, or a 65% decline in constant currency.

It's going to be interesting to see how the market reacts.

Result not as good once drilling down.

$22m of NPAT was exchange gains compared to previous period of $.06m gain.
 
A great company but currently fully valued in my opinion.

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 29, 2022, 09:41 AMleftie - good, bad or ho hum

Hey Winner. I've given up forecasting SP's (well, on this forum.) Better to let the market do what it does. But suffice it to say given the FPH SP action so far today I'm v happy. Given the IKE results also - I'm even more happy. Great day for my portfolio. 8)

Latest from Craig's

Our target price increases 13% to $21.77, which is half driven by the easing in the RFR over November (FPH's valuation is highly sensitive to this given the long duration of cashflows) and half due to earnings upgrades. We upgrade FY23 revenue 4% to $1.50bn and NPAT 3% to $224m, and upgrade FY24e NPAT 10% to $284m, driven by a pull forward of gross margin recovery. While our visibility of and confidence in FPH's recovery is improving, FPH shares are now trading at higher levels than before the "mother of all downgrades" at the August ASM despite (i) consensus FY23e being c.20-25% lower than it was prior to the ASM downgrade and (ii) RFR being c.100bps higher. On 47x FY24e, a strong recovery is already priced in (particularly following yesterday's rally) and we maintain Underweight on valuation grounds.

Crikey, don't tell Craigs....... FPH up another 3% today...... into the $24's.

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 01, 2022, 05:27 PMCrikey, don't tell Craigs....... FPH up another 3% today...... into the $24's.

And $25 plus tomorrow

If marketscreener anything to go by analysts raised their profit expectations a  bit after half year announcement

F23 forecast is 37 cents /  share ,,,,jeez that puts FPH on a PE of 65 at the moment

Things go to lan F25 eps forecast is 67 cents

That at $24 is a PE of 35 .... but if fph maintains that 65 PE the share price would be nearly $44 in 2025

That's good ...something to look forward to

Nice to see FPH in the leader board today (briefly.)

Slowly but surely heading towards the next target of $25.

TA  looks auspicious too.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 31, 2022, 12:49 PMAri Wald a TA guru doesn't see golden crosses as an absolutely bullish signal for the market

A golden cross is a dead safe indicator that you should have bought some months ago. As far as the future is concerned it is not better than any other trend related indicator ... 60% good, 40% failure.

$25 breached today......

Onwards & upwards

Great update today...... my faith in this one restored!!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405576

Onwards and upwards $25 confirmed....... next step $30  .......( a lot better than Basil's under $10 SP call for FY23!!)

Seems FPH Health's position in the new Covid world is being recognised.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 20, 2023, 10:24 AMGreat update today...... my faith in this one restored.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405576

Onwards and upwards $25 confirmed....... next step $30

Seems FPH Health's position in the new Covid world is being recognised.

That's about a 20% increase in profit expectations v consensus

FY eps be about 45 cents now

Pretty cool eh

Could see that 30 bucks soon

Yep fabulous..... and a lot better than Basil's dire 'sell call" and SP prediction of under $10 in FY 23!!

I prefer your $30 call any day!!

PE still pretty high, but FPH have a record of underselling and overdelivering. Good year ahead for holders.

I'll post this here too, but discussion of it is over on the Momentum Investing thread.  If you havent read it, do drop by. 
(note: chart is from the ASX, price is in AU$)

FPHJan2023.png

Thanks for the chart KW.

Thanks also for your work on the 'Momentum Investing' thread...... I hadn't been following, but will now!

didn't read this on BusinessDesk

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare says FY operating revenue to dip

Hey KW - good stuff re momentum

When you say this methinks it is going to happen  - Alternatively, fundamental good news could drive the price through that barrier and beyond, if the company management convinces the "get out evens" to hang in there. 


They'll hang in there

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 20, 2023, 11:22 AMHey KW - good stuff re momentum

When you say this methinks it is going to happen  - Alternatively, fundamental good news could drive the price through that barrier and beyond, if the company management convinces the "get out evens" to hang in there. 


They'll hang in there

It would have been good if they had timed this release to coincide with a push through that resistance level lol.  As such, its a bit early and by the time it gets there some people will have forgotten the good news, or will use the news as confirmation that they should get out now before it all goes to shit again.  There is still a positive covid effect (from China) in their financials which will need to come out, so high chance of the next announcement not being so good.   

Craigs latest

Further FY23e upgrades look likely
FPH tends to be conservative when it provides guidance, and particularly in
an environment of extreme volatility in demand such as at present. Friday's
guidance seems no exception, and appears to assume a sharp fall off in
demand from all three drivers noted above over the next two months. While
directionally this view is supported by the most recent data, guidance may
prove to be too conservative, particularly with respect to margins. While FPH
has guided to flat gross margins HoH, we would normally expect gross
margin to expand on the back of the 24-32% HoH lift in revenue the company
has guided to. We therefore lift our FY23e revenue estimate to $1.62bn, and
NPAT to $288m (i.e. 2% and 6% above the top end of guidance, respectively).
Target price +18%, upgrade to Neutral
Friday's upgrade brings forward the previously expected recovery in demand
by about a year, which all else equal drives up our DCF-driven valuation by
9%. In addition, the recent sharp fall in US 10-year bond yields (from 4.0% in
November to 3.5% now) drives up our DCF valuation a further 9%, and overall
our target price increases 18% to $25.78. With FPH shares trading in line with
our revised target price, and 44x fwd earnings, we upgrade to Neutral.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 19, 2022, 11:22 AMUgly numbers.  Many parallels to ATM with heavy stocking pre-pandemic and now sales falling off.
Coincidence that the decline in FPH started within a month of the decline of ATM ?

Ugly numbers is going to lead to analysts recalibrating their long term growth assumptions...10 years hardware sales in 2 years, (gosh have they ever explained it in anywhere near such stark terms before ?)

I can see some serious analysts downgrades coming.  Quick back of the envelope, if they make $90m (mid point of guidance this half and say $95m in 2H that's $185m / 577.3m shares = 32 cps.  Even after this mornings decline at $19.60 they trade at approx 61 times FY23 earnings....WOW.

Current consensus is for 49 cps in FY23 growing to 64cps in FY24 and 76 cps in FY25
I can see analysts radially pulling back on those projections and seriously downgrading their DCF valuation.

If I held I would SELL.  Thankfully I have never believed in the hype of super high PE stocks with modest growth rates.

First of 3 downgrades to come ?
Lot of people though the dog was way too bearish with his $15 call earlier this year.
Even at $15 they'd be on a FY23 of ~ 47 which now looks stretched to me.

Not so long ago on a Friday, share price now $26 and its a Friday.

Quote from: Breezy on Mar 03, 2023, 08:36 AMNot so long ago on a Friday, share price now $26 and its a Friday.

I called it a SELL at over $30 and it did get down as low as $18, not all that far from where I saw the bottom considering the starting point.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 03, 2023, 09:28 AMI called it a SELL at over $30 and it did get down as low as $18, not all that far from where I saw the bottom considering the starting point.

You also called it a sell at under $20 and there are other things in that post that have also proven to be wrong, I think sometimes its just better to admit you got it wrong when you seriously downramp a stock over a long period like you have with this one.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 30, 2022, 08:38 PM.......I reckon there is potential here for this (FPH)  to go under $10 at some stage in 2023 (28 times FY23 average forecast earnings).
Worse, one wonders how much the E of that PE is under threat with a decade's worth of hardware sold in the last 2 years......

To be fair, some such calls have been very good counter cyclical indicators. lol.

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 03, 2023, 09:45 AMTo be fair, some such calls have been very good counter cyclical indicators. lol.

For sure, wow under $10, never saw that one.

Welcome to the real world where nobody gets every call right but overall, I am very happy with my call quite some time back it was a sell at over $30 and the stock still trades materially lower today.   Sure it didn't get as low as I thought, but please direct me to anyone else who gets every call right and I'll happily invest everything I have with them lol

I'm also very happy with my call on ATM, selling 5 years ago in March 2018 at $13.40 with the proceeds of that sale reinvested very lucratively since then.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 03, 2023, 10:00 AM.......I'm also very happy with my call on ATM, selling 5 years ago in March 2018 at $13.40 with the proceeds of that sale reinvested very lucratively since then.

Speaking of ATM, another more recent great counter cyclical call.....

Quote from: Basil on Aug 02, 2022, 10:41 PM...."I fail to see ANY compelling reason at all to jump back in here given very demanding metrics and no obvious route back to being a high growth company.

I reckon its a case of SELL before the annual result gives the company yet another opportunity to disappoint....."

ATM SP up approx 40% since. ( Just saying.....)

Quote from: Basil on Mar 03, 2023, 10:00 AMWelcome to the real world where nobody gets every call right but overall, I am very happy with my call quite some time back it was a sell at over $30 and the stock still trades materially lower today.   Sure it didn't get as low as I thought, but please direct me to anyone else who gets every call right and I'll happily invest everything I have with them lol

I'm also very happy with my call on ATM, selling 5 years ago in March 2018 at $13.40 with the proceeds of that sale reinvested very lucratively since then.

Maybe you missed this bit.   I'm very content with my success rate over the last decade.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 03, 2023, 12:55 PMMaybe you missed this bit.   I'm very content with my success rate over the last decade.

You certainly are very successful at diversion, thats for sure.

Quality on Fire today, nearly 50% above its lows, kinda sounds familiar to another certain stock.

Quote from: Breezy on Mar 06, 2023, 12:22 PMQuality on Fire today, nearly 50% above its lows, kinda sounds familiar to another certain stock.

Well done buying 'quality' back when it was about 18 bucks

Only half wat back to 36 bucks but will get there some time  .... next year?

Suppose you still accumulating and holding forever .... why not

Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2022, 12:02 PMAs you know, I have been calling this as a $15 stock for quite some time, from back when it was ~ $30 to be exact.  If it weren't for the fact this is N.Z.'s largest leading blue chip stock with widespread institutional holdings supported by ongoing inflows from Kiwisaver contributions I believe it would already be back at that level.

I believe we are going to see a fundamental rerating in the year ahead in a similar vein to how the former market darling ATM was rerated.

Downgrades always comes in 3's (Balance)

For portfolio protection in a bear market this is a great and very liquid stock to short in my opinion.

Wow didn't see this post before but umm.
Fundamental rerating in the year ahead = Nope.
Downgrades always come in 3's = Not always.
Very liquid stock to short for portfolio protection = Definately not unless you wanted a severe burning.

Quality per se never comes cheap

Thats why FPH on a forward PE of 60 at the moment

Not that expensive for real blue chip quality

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 06, 2023, 02:40 PMQuality per se never comes cheap

Thats why FPH on a forward PE of 60 at the moment

Not that expensive for real blue chip quality

Yeah might be pushing the envelope a bit at 60 (35-40 pretty standard for this sector) but see what the next result brings, in the meantime its all about sentiment.

Quote from: Breezy on Mar 06, 2023, 02:54 PMYeah might be pushing the envelope a bit at 60 (35-40 pretty standard for this sector) but see what the next result brings, in the meantime its all about sentiment.

Jeez breezy ......a PE on forecast F23 earnings is a share price of $15.75

Sentiment eh ......punters must be feeling really happy these days then

And instos/fundies probably think you'd got to be in to keep up ...don't wantbthem to miss out eh.

Quote from: Breezy on Mar 06, 2023, 02:54 PMYeah might be pushing the envelope a bit at 60 (35-40 pretty standard for this sector) but see what the next result brings, in the meantime its all about sentiment.

No question a great company but it's a hold for me at these prices.

$27.55. Go you good thing.

amazing from low 18... some will have made a ton on this move...

with such rare performance in the NZX .

Craig's Latest note out today.  Its a downgrade and say "we no longer believe that FPH is likely
to upgrade FY23 revenue guidance"

High expectations built into the current share price. FY23 PE60

Have just trimmed my holding.

Large investment for the future of FPH and their proposed Karaka campus.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/410530

Auckland, New Zealand, 27 April 2023 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited announced today it has received approval from the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) to proceed with its acquisition of a 105-hectare site in Karaka, Auckland.

The purchase of the Karaka land will be funded through a combination of operating cash flow and debt facilities. In recent months, the company has secured additional debt funding with a number of leading banks. As at 31 March 2023, the company had total available committed debt funding of $704 million, of which approximately $620 million was undrawn.

A 10% deposit of the $275 million purchase price was paid in September 2022. The balance will be paid on staggered settlement dates, with $189.5 million to be paid in May, a further $43 million paid in January 2026 and the final instalment of $15 million in December 2026. A summary of the key terms of the sale and purchase agreement are available in the company's news release dated 1 September 2022.

From Craig's this morning

•   FPH – CPAP market leader Resmed has reported strong 3Q23 results, with mask sales up +15% YoY ccy and hardware sales up an impressive +43% YoY ccy, a 2-year and 10-year high, respectively. This result was driven by (i) strong patient demand, (ii) alleviation of shortages previously limiting production of fully functioning devices, with Resmed indicating they can only now meet demand, (iii) continued market share loss from the #2 hardware player, Philips, in line with management commentary at their 1Q23 result earlier this week. This result is in-line with our expectations for a strong 2H for FPH's OSA division which accounted for around 1/3 of total revenue in 1H23. As a reminder, at its Jan-23 guidance FPH noted its OSA mask sales (c.85% of homecare revenues in 1H23) were up 10% YoY ccy in the half-to-date. We expect this to accelerate to 21% YoY ccy off the back of (i) increased supply of hardware, especially Resmed devices, increasing the market size for FPH's masks, (ii) general improvement in customer engagement with DME stores now full re-opened and (iii) OSA mask market share growth for FPH's Evora Full mask

Stocks love to "close gaps", and FPH is no exception.  Its just that closing gaps can take time, as they often set up strong resistance levels that impede a move higher.  You can see this play out with FHP trying to get through the several resistance levels that were set up from that volatile March period last year.  So the good news is that FPH has finally smashed through it. 

fphmay23.png

Thanks for the helpful graph KW. I hope it is 'onwards and upwards' from here.

Short term there may be more SP fluctuations until the next update as PE looking toppy.

Long term, no worries.

Craig's downgrade in latest

Investors should consider taking profits ahead of May 26 result
We maintain our Neutral with target price -2% to $24.94 on lower earnings.
FPH shares have rallied c.20% since the January upgrade and are now trading
on 50x FY24e PE, with the market now arguably anticipating a "beat and
raise" at the upcoming result on May 26 which is looking less likely. We think
investors should consider taking some profits at current level

Even Kingfish have 'trimmed their position' on FPH (April update)

Sage advice perhaps. Not a reflection on the company....but as mentioned above the P/E perhaps a bit high again. Can always buy back when the time is right.
It is looking a bit expensive at the moment after it's quick move upwards.

Quote from: Onemootpoint on May 10, 2023, 06:11 PMSage advice perhaps. Not a reflection on the company....but as mentioned above the P/E perhaps a bit high again. Can always buy back when the time is right.
It is looking a bit expensive at the moment after it's quick move upwards.

Agreed (and currently not holding myself). On the other hand ... it seems to be one of FPH's attributes to look a bit dear if measured against PE and historical growth rates. Market seems to price in some enormous future growth rates ... and it always does ...

Craig's said today
•   FPH – Key Obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA) competitor Philips Respironics announced yesterday that internal testing on 95% of its hardware indicated that usage was "unlikely to result in an appreciable harm to health in patients". As a reminder, the OSA market (which makes up about 1/3 of FPH revenues) has been severely constrained by a lack of hardware, used to (i) diagnose new patients and (ii) resupply existing patients, since Philips found that foam insulation in some of their hardware could degrade and enter users' lungs, initiating a recall of 5.5m units of hardware from June 2021. Yesterday's update makes it more likely Philips' OSA hardware will return to market sooner, which will 1) increase the supply of OSA patients, acting as a tailwind for FPH's OSA consumable sales, but 2) increase competitive pressure in the OSA hardware space, acting as a headwind to FPH's OSA hardware sales. Given 80+% of FPH OSA revenue is derived from consumable sales, we see this announcement as incrementally positive for FPH. Indeed, we have been expecting FPH to gain share in the OSA consumables space from their popular Evora Full mask. Philips' update gives us further confidence in our expectations for good FPH homecare segment growth, with our FPH homecare revenue estimates 16% above consensus in FY24.Nonetheless, we maintain our expectation for modest overall growth in FY24 as the hospital segment will be lapping a strong flu season and China Covid demand. We re-iterate that given (i) a weak revenue print from key hospital segment comparator company Vapotherm, and (ii) a more rapid than expected decline in US and Chinese respiratory hospitalisations, we expect FPH's FY23 revenue to be $1,558m, at the bottom end of the $1,550 – 1,600m range.

Results down on my expectations.... but a promise to return to normal future revenue/margin growth after covid disruptions....Divvy up a smidgen. No need for holders to panic!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412082

Overview of key results for the second half of the 2023 financial year
• 14% growth in operating revenue to $890.5 million, 12% growth in constant currency.
• Net profit after tax of $154.4 million, a decline of 0.5% or 3% in constant currency.
• 9% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $584.8 million, 7% growth in constant currency.
• 13% constant currency revenue growth for new applications consumables; i.e. products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy and surgical applications, accounting for 72% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 25% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $303.9 million, 22% growth in constant currency.
• 28% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 24% growth in constant currency.

Overview of key results for the 2023 financial year
• 34% decline in net profit after tax to $250.3 million, 39% decline in constant currency.
• 6% decline in operating revenue to $1.58 billion, 9% decline in constant currency.
• 15% decline in Hospital operating revenue to $1.02 billion, 18% decline in constant currency.
• 6% constant currency revenue decline for new applications consumables.
• 18% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $553.8 million, 13% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $174.3 million.
• 2% increase in final dividend to 23.0 cps (2022: 22.5 cps).
• 3% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 40.5 cps (2022: 39.5 cps).

Outlook for the 2024 financial year

At current exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the 2024 financial year include no significant respiratory disease events, and result in full year operating revenue of approximately $1.70 billion, with approximately similar revenue growth rates for both Hospital and Homecare product groups.

Hey leftie

What you make of guidance single digit growth company trading at 60 times earnings

Future looks very bright to me, $50 in 4 yrs.

Quote from: winner (n) on May 26, 2023, 09:02 AMHey leftie

What you make of guidance single digit growth company trading at 60 times earnings

Nothing extreme, take a look at XRO if you want an extreme PE yet it seems to be trucking along nicely, you guys too focused on one metric, its all about potential and quality and this company has both in spades.

Hey Winnie

I'm no guru like u but I suspect FPH's 'high P/E" is all about FPH's ability to provide a high margin on its steadily growing revenue base. I note this in today's commentary.....

" Gross margin for the year was 59.4%, a 369 basis point decrease in constant currency....."

"....Prior to the pandemic, we had a track record of incremental improvements in gross margin. During the last three years, our responsibility was to get as much product as possible into the hands of our customers. Now, as every team in our business turns back to efficiency gains, we are confident in our ability to return to our long-term target of 65% within three to four years.

Quote from: Left Field on May 26, 2023, 09:54 AMHey Winnie

I'm no guru like u but I suspect FPH's 'high P/E" is all about FPH's ability to provide a high margin on its steadily growing revenue base. I note this in today's commentary.....

" Gross margin for the year was 59.4%, a 369 basis point decrease in constant currency....."

"....Prior to the pandemic, we had a track record of incremental improvements in gross margin. During the last three years, our responsibility was to get as much product as possible into the hands of our customers. Now, as every team in our business turns back to efficiency gains, we are confident in our ability to return to our long-term target of 65% within three to four years.

(ps see my post # 111...... PE over 50 has been with FPH ever since I've been trading))

This company ticks all the right boxes for me, sure its got a volatile sp as seen on open today but thats the nature of the beast with an international growth company.

Winnie was asking about FPH's high PE

My new fancy Jardens trading site tells me FPH PE is 58.99 and compares this to peer COH.AU's PE at 61.30.

The same comparison with HLG by Jarden gives a PE of 10.58 and compared this to MHJ at 9.86, BST.AU at 7.75 and UNI.AU at 8.05.

Quote from: Left Field on May 26, 2023, 03:56 PMWinnie was asking about FPH's high PE

My new fancy Jardens trading site tells me FPH PE is 58.99 and compares this to peer COH.AU's PE at 61.30.

The same comparison with HLG by Jarden gives a PE of 10.58 and compared this to MHJ at 9.86, BST.AU at 7.75 and UNI.AU at 8.05.

Ok then ....FPH must be fairly valued at the moment

Can't argue with the experts

And breezy still saying $50 in a few years time

$100 in 5 years time ;)

Quote from: Basil on May 26, 2023, 04:31 PM$100 in 5 years time ;)

Nice and bullish and hey if XRO can do it then anythings possible. 8)

Craig's said today

FPH – STOP PRESS – Downgrades to NPAT forecasts likely for FY24e ... FPH delivered FY23 NPAT of $250m, 2% below consensus with revenue not coming in at the top of the range as predicted in our recent research as demand softened late in the period, however the key is guidance which is very weak and c.13% below consensus. FPH made several key guidance statements: Revenue guidance of $1.7bn is in line with consensus/CIPe. Gross margin guidance is for 200bps ccy, but this translates to just 100bps YoY improvement at current fx rates. FPH expressed hope that gross margin will return to target in 3-4 years which is also broadly in line with consensus. The opex guidance was a genuine surprise, with FPH guiding for 12% NZ$ opex growth in FY24e (14% ccy) or $660m. We understand that this reflects that FPH has finally caught up on a number of new hires management had hoped to make earlier in FY23 (and one reason for the guidance upgrades in FY23). The surprise comes as FPH previously guided for operating costs to grow slower than revenue in coming years – clearly this will not be the case in FY24. Net interest expense is guided to $16m, well above consensus of $4m, as FPH's capex leaps to $450m, in large part due to the acquisition of the new campus in Drury, South Auckland (c.$300m). Putting all of that together our back of the envelope calculations suggests guidance is for c.$262m, up only slightly on pcp, and 13% below prior consensus of $300m. Note we may need to adjust our calculations based on tax rate guidance (not provided in the release). We also note the fx rates assumed in guidance are higher than spot, so we interpret the guidance at spot at closer to $265-270m (vs prior consensus $300m). FPH last at $25.65 but expect it to trade down sharply today on the softer bottom line guidance and elevated multiple

I thought predictions were meant to be to 1 decimal place....?  Come on guys.....you are letting the side down.  ;)

Quote from: Basil on May 26, 2023, 04:31 PM$100 in 5 years time ;)

Quote from: Breezy on May 26, 2023, 09:17 AMFuture looks very bright to me, $50 in 4 yrs.

Latest from Craig's

FPH – Ridgewell & Morrison note that NZ respiratory equipment exports (mostly made up of FPH products) were up 21% YoY in June, making FPH's 1Q24 exports flat at -1% YoY. As a reminder, FY24 guidance was for revenue of $1.70bn or 8% growth YoY – closer to $1.73bn and 9% growth at current spot fx rates. At first read, therefore, the data is of concern. However, recent discussions with management suggest they remain confident in their ability to hit guidance. We note FPH's inventory grew significantly during covid as it shifted its inventory strategy from 'Just in Time' to 'Just in Case'. From 1H23 as the pandemic subsided, FPH began to reduce inventory levels, which decreased 8% HoH over 2H23 – and as such, Ridgewell & Morrison think the weak data mainly reflects that FPH has continued to work its way through excess inventories in 1Q24. If they are right, this should support an improved cashflow result for FPH in 1H24. In addition, we believe that any increase in FPH's total production is now likely to be coming out of Mexico (which is not reflected in the NZ export data), which should support gross margin improvement given lower labour costs in that market (particularly once FPH's excess inventory, much of which was made in NZ, is cleared).....FPH last at $24.08 (+6.5% YTD)

Craig's also added to Bakers dozen.

SG's postings almost need a power point presentation they are so thick with data points.

"$100 in 5 years time " from Mr B.

this is worth exploring and if correct it must constitute the most compelling investment on the NZX?

Craigs more upbeat this time. Always a good buy. Sometimes just a better buy than other times.

From Craig's today

Resmed announced its June quarter result today, with quarterly device/mask sales up 24%/18% YoY ccy, respectively, but traded down 7% pre-market as operating margin for the quarter fell from higher-than-expected SG&A and COGS. Device sales decelerated from 43% YoY as Resmed finally worked its way through the backlog of untreated patients which built up during covid.  In contrast, mask sales accelerated from 15% due to an improved supply of devices and pricing increases. Resmed pointed out that historic mask growth had been constrained due to a lack of new product releases (as engineering resources were focused on meeting device demand in the face of pandemic-induced supply constraints) and said they expected to release a new OSA mask product within the next year. Resmed's strong mask growth, driven by the backlog of untreated OSA patients being cleared, gives us further confidence in our expectations for +10% ccy growth in FPH's OSA consumable division in FY24. In-line with Resmed's expectations for a new mask release in the next year Stephen Ridgewell and Rob Morrison had previously expected FPH's OSA mask growth to decelerate to 5% in FY25 due to increased competition.

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 04, 2023, 12:45 PMFrom Craig's today

Resmed announced its June quarter result today, with quarterly device/mask sales up 24%/18% YoY ccy, respectively, but traded down 7% pre-market as operating margin for the quarter fell from higher-than-expected SG&A and COGS. Device sales decelerated from 43% YoY as Resmed finally worked its way through the backlog of untreated patients which built up during covid.  In contrast, mask sales accelerated from 15% due to an improved supply of devices and pricing increases. Resmed pointed out that historic mask growth had been constrained due to a lack of new product releases (as engineering resources were focused on meeting device demand in the face of pandemic-induced supply constraints) and said they expected to release a new OSA mask product within the next year. Resmed's strong mask growth, driven by the backlog of untreated OSA patients being cleared, gives us further confidence in our expectations for +10% ccy growth in FPH's OSA consumable division in FY24. In-line with Resmed's expectations for a new mask release in the next year Stephen Ridgewell and Rob Morrison had previously expected FPH's OSA mask growth to decelerate to 5% in FY25 due to increased competition.

Trust Craigs to find negativity in this news.  One would have thought much depends on price/quality/innovation etc of Resmed's  new mask... and then there is the "increased attention and awareness that can expand the total market" scenario, (that's why retailers group competing outlets together, it's why increased competition in the Chinese IF market grew the total market.... etc etc.)

•   FPH - FPH's key High Flow Nasal Oxygen (HFNO) competitor, Vapotherm, has reported 2Q23 (calendar year) results: downgrading CY23 guidance based on weaker than expected HFNO consumables utilisation and revenue. But, even with Vapotherm's less optimistic assumptions, 2H23 consumables revenue is expected to grow 24% YoY – this period corresponds to FPH's 2Q24 and 3Q24. Although this is higher than our FPH FY23E estimates for 17% YoY HFNO consumables growth, we think our prior expectations remain sensible given (i) FPH's higher exposure to ex-US geographies where demand trends are less clear and (ii) HFNO consumable demand has disappointed in CY23 so far. FPH closed down XXX% at $23.33 which appears attributable to the recent weakness in comp ResMed (-20% since the start of August)....

The chart is looking pretty sick.  Break of support/failure at resistance level ($23), a death cross (50 day MA below the 200 day MA) and a break of the 200 day MA that is continuing.  That would be me, gone, as I dont hang around to find out why.

  FPHAug23.png

Agreed, next stop testing 18.00 to 22.00 channel.

FPH_2023-08-13_10-19-30.png

Good TA thank you Cod and KW.

Much hinging on the ASM update scheduled for 29 Aug.   

ASM guidance update....Talk of growing revenue and margins.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417250

Market not impressed at first glance.

Yes it looks like it's dependent on 2H. less clear around momentum for the Hospital segment, which looks to be tracking a little softer (on softer device sales)

Found this Interesting from investor day.

Mexico's wage inflation has been 40% for the past 3 years (the cost to manufacture in Mexico is now 85% of NZ) and the President plans to raise wages further. 


FPH Homecare: The Evora Full has pioneered a new category of sleep apnoea mask, with performance/seal the same as a full-face mask; but with a much smaller size. High demand for the Evora Full mask has necessitated FPH opening a new manufacturing line in Mexico, with suggestions that the Evora's popularity is reminiscent of the 2013-16 cycle during which the Simplus mask continued to take share. A key driver of the lack of myAirvo uptake could be the absence of reimbursement vs alternative treatments...requiring patients to pay out of pocket for a device which is sold to DMEs at US$ 5-10k.

Are we there yet?

This is one of the companies always looking to dear ... and subsequently I am rarely holding it. Still - a fascinating and well managed company, and I can't stop myself watching it.

Just looking at the fundamentals: forward PE (using analyst forecasts for the next three years) would be 41, backward PE (based on average earnings over the last 10 years) is 53. SP came down that much, but still looks too dear, even if we consider the forward earnings CAGR of 4 (solid, but far from stellar).

Even the people paid for being optimistic think its still too dear (or just fair value): shareclarity (I know ...) has a DCF of $19.15 and - analyst consensus is $22.18.

Hard to make a convincing case for buying at this level, but I suspect at some stage people will just starting to buy (they always do), no matter whether the fundamentals do justify it - or not.

If we put a line under the last 10 years of SP growth, than it looks like SP came pretty much back to normal. Only question now is - is it going to swing under, before it recovers (it normally does) ... or did we reach the bottom already?



I won't hold my breath and probably just keep watching.

The SP's of FPH and ResMed (ASX) had both been partially beaten down on the perceived risk that new anti-obesity drugs may have on the sleep apnea patient airflow devices.

However ResMed this week suggested "the work that's being done in the pharmaceutical industry right now with obesity drugs will be a net positive for patient flow and patient growth in sleep apnea, COPD and for ResMed overall".

Seems that like cholesterol and blood pressure pharmaceuticals before it, that GLP-1 weight loss drugs may see a new population of patients, who may have never entered the healthcare system, or engaged with a doctor.

"After they go through this screening process, those with sleep apnea that otherwise would not have been in ResMed's pipeline may be offered a ResMed device."

This info from Ophir's letter to Investors here; https://www.ophiram.com.au/letter-to-investors-october-5/

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422577

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2024 financial year
• 12% increase in net profit after tax to $107.3 million, 22% increase in constant currency.
• 16% increase in operating revenue to $803.7 million, 16% increase in constant currency.
• 11% increase in Hospital operating revenue to $487.5 million, 11% increase in constant currency.
• 19% increase in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 70% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 26% increase in Homecare operating revenue to $314.4 million, 25% increase in constant currency.
• 28% increase in constant currency for OSA masks and accessories revenue.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $96.9 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 18.0 cps (H1 FY23: 17.5 cps).

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 29, 2023, 08:40 AMhttps://www.nzx.com/announcements/422577

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2024 financial year
• 12% increase in net profit after tax to $107.3 million, 22% increase in constant currency.
• 16% increase in operating revenue to $803.7 million, 16% increase in constant currency.
• 11% increase in Hospital operating revenue to $487.5 million, 11% increase in constant currency.
• 19% increase in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 70% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 26% increase in Homecare operating revenue to $314.4 million, 25% increase in constant currency.
• 28% increase in constant currency for OSA masks and accessories revenue.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $96.9 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 18.0 cps (H1 FY23: 17.5 cps).

Strong result in tough times and increase in divvy to boot.

Beat the street....good

Good result

Craig's like it

Revenue of $804m was above Guidance for $790m provided at the August ASM with Hospital growing 11% constant CCY including 19% in consumables. Homecare revenue was +25% (+28% in OSA). NPAT if $107m (+12%) was above the top end of $95-105m guidance. FX movements which boosted the result by c$3-4m. The 2H24 outlook is inline with consensus with FY24 revenue of $1.7B and NPAT of $257m (Guidance $250-260m). FPH re-iterated guidance to get gross margin back to 65% in 3-4 years, a key focus for investors. Ridgewell sees room for improvement but doubts it will recover to that level so soon. That said, he sees FPH's revenue growth outlook as robust in both divisions (driven by new product launches), which should continue to underwrite solid improvement in revenue and NPAT....expect FPH to trade modestly better today –

So much for these so called wonder weight loss drugs having any meaningful affect on FPH as a certain horned scaremongerer at the other place was highlighting. Most have now been withdrawn from the market due to serious side effects including 2 from Pfizer (No surprises there)

Bit of an upgrade. Looking good.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428415

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 22, 2024, 08:46 AMBit of an upgrade. Looking good.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428415

NZD had a lot to do with it

Not much growth this year .....wonder what F25 will bring

Analysts seem to think $330m profit in F25=and $400m in F26

Good increase from this years $260m eh

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 22, 2024, 08:46 AMBit of an upgrade. Looking good.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428415

Definately a great long term hold this one then you can ignore the white noise charts like the one KW put up aye.

Nice to see FPH ending the day above $26.00..... market likes the upgrade.

Quote from: Left Field on Mar 22, 2024, 07:37 PMNice to see FPH ending the day above $26.00..... market likes the upgrade.

Nice move for the day and this stock can move quick in either direction, quite a volatile beast.

It's official....Winner say's things are looking good for holders!

"FPH share price nudging 27 bucks today

Getting back to where it was a year ago and seeing better shape it could go to $30 in next month or two ......and then $35 by end of year"

( Probably into 'golden cross' territory too...)

Leftie, guru analysts think over wise

Macquarie 12 month  target $26.30
Jarden $23.20
Forbar $23.45

And that's after theyb'rejigged' their targets after the guidance upgrade the other day ...from BusinessDesk

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 26, 2024, 09:52 AMLeftie, guru analysts think over wise

Macquarie 12 month  target $26.30
Jarden $23.20
Forbar $23.45

And that's after theyb'rejigged' their targets after the guidance upgrade the other day ...from BusinessDesk

Well you won't be worrying about these guys after your $35 call end of year, probably just got the juniors to have a play with some figures over morning tea whilst they were trading crypto.

12 mill impairment from historical product recall, chump change so shouldn't affect sp. Then this building depreciation thing which is cutting out a claimable expense ending with more tax to pay, thought the current Govt were better than that in this area but worse than Labour, IRD thinks its a dumb change to boot.

Kudos to FPH for the way they have handled this.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428702

Bucking the trend today. 8)

Weight loss drug is showing signs of reduced OSA.
If this plays out then it could affect FPH core business

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/eli-lillys-zepbound-shows-promise-as-sleep-apnea-treatment-in-trial.html

This one's been threatening for some time (see earlier posts #142.) 

Anyway, fingers crossed FPH have a plan B.

Relax.

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 18, 2024, 08:30 AMThis one's been threatening for some time (see earlier posts.) 

Anyway, fingers crossed FPH have a plan B.

Relax.

Its an overstated threat as has been shown by the prior drugs being only marginally successful due to awful side effects and suitability for target market. Its a complicated problem that a pill isn't going to fix. FPH are hugely innovative and have many strings to their bow.

Lol I had another read back through this thread just for fun, classic example of why it doesn't pay to become a basher openly as you often just end up with egg on your face for all to see.

Quote from: Breezy on Apr 18, 2024, 08:51 AMIts an overstated threat as has been shown by the prior drugs being only marginally successful due to awful side effects and suitability for target market. Its a complicated problem that a pill isn't going to fix. FPH are hugely innovative and have many strings to their bow.

All true and I agree.but weight gain / loss is a significant factor and people are losing weight.
Having said that, FPH is a great innovator and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Still holding, no plans to change that

The temperature in this kitchen is getting a bit hot for the food thats on offer at the moment, might be time to go to the longue for a wee lay down until the temp comes down a bit.

Closing today at 52 week high of $27.87 (up 5%) on reasonable volumes......

NBR article (behind paywall)  reporting FB has upgraded expectations as FPH about to enter the anaesthesia device market.  "Will anaesthesia prove to be the next big thing for FPH?"

https://www.nbr.co.nz/investment/will-anaesthesia-prove-the-next-big-thing-for-f-and-p-healthcare/

Quote from: Breezy on Apr 24, 2024, 06:22 PMThe temperature in this kitchen is getting a bit hot for the food thats on offer at the moment, might be time to go to the longue for a wee lay down until the temp comes down a bit.

Quite right. If the market is overheated its so easy to get carried away and join the herd burning their money ...

While FPH is clearly a pristine and well managed company, it feels the market is prepared to pay currently a huge premium for a company not just priced for perfection, but priced for exponential growth from here. Backwards PE (10y) is 68, forward PE (3 yrs) 52 ... and this comes with an earnings forward CAGR of 4.2. One would need a significantly higher earnings CAGR to justify these astronomic PE's.

Hmm. Maybe the markets are preparing for COVID 24? Who knows, this or some other favourable black swan event might help ...

For Bars report yesterday

We upgrade our rating on F&P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia market. This reflects: (1) strong industry feedback, (2) large market size, and (3) current use case/body of clinical research, underpinning a solid market penetration ability (which we expect to grow through time). Anaesthesia products represent only ~4% of our FY24 revenue forecast but are at a critical point for investors to take notice, with potential for the anaesthesia opportunity to be a key driver for the investment case over the next decade. While relative valuation to peers is ahead of history, it looks fair accounting for FPH's superior near-term earnings growth. We take comfort in the longer-term anaesthesia opportunity which underpins robust valuation support.

What's changed?
Earnings: Negligible near-term changes, more material longer-term upgrades given higher anaesthesia revenue.
Target price: Increased to NZ$25.90 (from NZ$23.45) given peers change and higher medium/long-term earnings expectations.
Rating: Upgraded to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM).
Large total addressable market (TAM) but current evidence suggests relatively low penetration
Our analysis suggests up to ~270m global procedures using general anaesthesia/procedural sedation (up to ~120m in developed markets). Based off current clinical evidence, using Australia as a guide, and clinician feedback, the primary use case today is for high-risk patients, but we expect the patient pool to grow over time as more population specific evidence is published. Today FPH's penetration is ~0.5% (~1.0% developed markets), our FY38 forecasts assume penetration of ~3-4% (developed markets of ~5-7%).


Industry feedback is constructive
Feedback from 12 users of the anaesthesia products is very consistent: (1) physicians 'generally speaking' love the product; (2) usage is primarily on high-risk patients/difficult airways (use is ~5% of total patients today, albeit there is a range); (3) there is no real perceived benefit in other standard procedures; thus, only clinicians need it for a small portion of patients at this stage (particularly given the current clinical evidence); and (4) there is little/no competition.


Anaesthesia underpins solid DCF valuation support
We now assume FY38 anaesthesia patient volumes of ~8.5m (from ~5m), which drives ~+5-7% EPS upgrades. This underpins robust 'cash flow' valuation support, helps allay our concerns on the new apps consumables growth factored into the share price, and provides greater confidence in consensus' consumables revenue growth long-term. We expect the share price to remain constrained given absolute valuation and relative valuation to peers is slightly elevated, and thus refrain from a more positive recommendation.

Thanks for posting the FB report. Very helpful.

FPH SP been a great ride over the last 6 months.

Crikey, big crossing on close today 204,806 shares at $28.47 (it wasn't me)

Quote from: Left Field on Apr 30, 2024, 05:40 PMCrikey, big crossing on close today 204,806 shares at $28.47 (it wasn't me)

Yeah P/E about 62 now, that's starting to roast.

Quote from: Breezy on Apr 30, 2024, 06:16 PMYeah P/E about 62 now, that's starting to roast.

Not wishing to defend FPH's sky high P/E however, as we appreciate, P/E is based on historic revenue figs and it seems the market is getting excited by possible projected earnings if FPH obtains a foothold in the anaesthesia market. (ForBar estimating 5 to 7 % EPS upgrades see post #167)

FPH now sitting at valuations of 10 x's revenue (ie high)
XRO about 13x's earnings (ie very high) and yet XRO is still making loses while FPH v profitable.

I'm guessing there are some financial nerds making more sense of these figures than me and at some stage FPH will come out with more sober (realistic) revenue projections and the market will gain more accurate valuations.

Quote from: Left Field on May 01, 2024, 08:10 AMNot wishing to defend FPH's sky high P/E however, as we appreciate, P/E is based on historic revenue figs and it seems the market is getting excited by possible projected earnings if FPH obtains a foothold in the anaesthesia market. (ForBar estimating 5 to 7 % EPS upgrades see post #167)

FPH now sitting at valuations of 10 x's revenue (ie high)
XRO about 13x's earnings (ie very high) and yet XRO is still making loses while FPH v profitable.

I'm guessing there are some financial nerds making more sense of these figures than me and at some stage FPH will come out with more sober (realistic) revenue projections and the market will gain more accurate valuations.

Wasn't long ago somebody asked Lewis Gradon would he buy FPH he said something like 'great company but I wouldn't pay that much'

Quote from: winner (n) on May 01, 2024, 08:31 AMWasn't long ago somebody asked Lewis Gradon would he buy FPH he said something like 'great company but I wouldn't pay that much'

Probably right too.....  tho' much depends on what the SP was when he said it.

Quote from: Left Field on May 01, 2024, 02:11 PMProbably right too.....  tho' much depends on what the SP was when he said it.

Probably when it was $24ish, can't see it dropping much before the result, punters will be looking for forward looking goodies at that point.

Latest from Craig's

FPH shares have rallied 14% since the guidance upgrade in late March with receding GLP1 fears more broadly. With the company already having pre-announced the FY24 result, the key question when it reports on 29 May will be the guidance for FY25. In a note published overnight Ridgewell and Morrison outline their expectation that FPH will beat consensus expectations for revenue growth for FY25 (CIPe $2.0bn, +15% YoY vs. consensus $1.94bn +12% YoY), driven by new product adoption, easing competitive pressures and a weaker NZ$. Yet the revenue beat will be largely offset by a margin miss (due to freight headwinds) leaving FY25e NPAT of $336m, in line with consensus.

P/E for this company is wild ... now most of the country is back at the 10's which would cut the price of this stock back to ?

Its priced like a tech stock...

high growth...

but really its sky high...

 

Quote from: Waltzing on May 04, 2024, 07:06 PMP/E for this company is wild ... now most of the country is back at the 10's which would cut the price of this stock back to ?

Its priced like a tech stock...

high growth...

but really its sky high...

 

You had better ask Basil, his last call was $10-$15. If your asking me then about $24 and don't forget that this is a high P/E sector as the norm, its pretty close to a tech stock anyways.

we have a pre AI meta base API for processing information from public companies in one of our research companies..

we have it covered..

IF FPH has a problem going forward it will get HIT

It priced to OVER perfection...

Have had this stock for a very long time and had a good sized free carry position.  A great company but agree with Waltzing and others that its priced for perfection currently.  Have sold the majority for hopefully better things.  Only time will tell.  I Don't like selling quality, but also good to lock in a profit. 

Quote from: Shareguy on May 16, 2024, 04:05 PMHave had this stock for a very long time and had a good sized free carry position.  A great company but agree with Waltzing and others that its priced for perfection currently.  Have sold the majority for hopefully better things.  Only time will tell.  I Don't like selling quality, but also good to lock in a profit.

Nothing wrong with taking profits off the table.... (and good luck with HGH.)

Much depending on 29 May results and 2025 projections for FPH.

Quote from: Shareguy on May 16, 2024, 04:05 PMHave had this stock for a very long time and had a good sized free carry position.  A great company but agree with Waltzing and others that its priced for perfection currently.  Have sold the majority for hopefully better things.  Only time will tell.  I Don't like selling quality, but also good to lock in a profit.

From a fundamental position a good decision, but SP is obviously strongly hype driven, and hype is not predictable.

Just played with my spreadsheet. Anybody paying current SP for FPH must assume a forward earnings CAGR of something like 50% to justify the price. This means earnings doubling from now every 18 months or so. That's a lot of for a company which used to grow their earnings in the past with an average of something like 12% p.a. (10 year window) i.e. past earnings doubled every 6 years or so ... but hey - some people say as well pigs can fly :);

Discl: happy to watch the SP development from the outside :);

Improving margins, increased dividends and healthy 2025 outlook should keep holders happy......... however, it's all about how the market reacts.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431920

Overview of key results for the 2024 financial year
• 10% growth in operating revenue to $1.74 billion, 8% growth in constant currency.
• 6% growth in underlying** net profit after tax to $264.4 million, 5% growth in constant currency.
• 6% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.1 billion, 5% growth in constant currency.
• 15% revenue growth for new applications consumables, 13% growth in constant currency.
• 18% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $652.3 million, 16% growth in constant currency.
• 21% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 18% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $198.2 million.
• 2% increase in final dividend to 23.5 cps (2023: 23.0 cps).
• 2% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 41.5 cps (2023: 40.5 cps).

Outlook for the 2025 financial year
At current exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the 2025 financial year include no significant respiratory disease events, and result in full year operating revenue in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and net profit after tax in the range of approximately $310 million to
$360 million. The net profit after tax guidance assumes a further improvement in gross margin during the 2025 financial year. Capital expenditure for the 2025 financial year is expected to be approximately $150 million.

Well the market seems to like it........ up 3.9% or $1.09

Heading north of $29.00 if the ASX close is an indication.

Quote from: Left Field on May 29, 2024, 06:05 PMWell the market seems to like it........ up 3.9% or $1.09
Heading north of $29.00 if the ASX close is an indication.

Big month end crossings of approx 2 mill shares at $29.50. Nice.

Quote from: Breezy on May 04, 2024, 07:57 PMYou had better ask Basil, his last call was $10-$15. If your asking me then about $24 and don't forget that this is a high P/E sector as the norm, its pretty close to a tech stock anyways.

As usual, you have such an incredibly selective memory and are "extremely" economical with the truth.  I actually called them a sell a very long time ago in the low $30's.  Yes at one point I thought they could get down as low as $15, think they got to $18 so I wasn't far off and they are still below where I made that original thirty something dollars sell call several years ago.   

Quote from: Basil on May 31, 2024, 05:20 PMAs usual, you have such an incredibly selective memory and are "extremely" economical with the truth.  I actually called them a sell a very long time ago in the low $30's.  Yes at one point I thought they could get down as low as $15, think they got to $18 so I wasn't far off and they are still below where I made that original thirty something dollars sell call several years ago.   

Left Field pulled you up quite some time ago where you put a $10 call on the stock so yeah.

QuoteI actually called them a sell a very long time ago in the low $30's.

Maybe you missed this bit.  Whether you believe me or not frankly I have better things to do than go trawling back through the FPH thread on the other channel to prove it.  Maybe you should have better things to do making derisory comments about others in case they start to recall some of your previous share price calls.  Have a lovely weekend MATE

Quote from: Basil on May 31, 2024, 06:37 PMMaybe you missed this bit.

You made many calls as you often do so, nothing wrong with wrong calls as long as you own it.

Quote from: Breezy on May 31, 2024, 06:40 PMYou made many calls as you often do so, nothing wrong with wrong calls as long as you own it.

My big call on FPH was SELL when it was over $30 years ago.  Speculation on how low it could go was exactly that, just speculation.  I'm going to still resist mentioning some of your calls....for now.  Honestly, haven't you got something better to do on a long weekend that start trouble on here again?
Getting all smarmy just because the shares are up a bit lately is not very clever when they're still more than $5 below where they were four years ago!

Quote from: Basil on May 31, 2024, 06:45 PMMy big call on FPH was SELL when it was over $30 years ago.  Speculation on how low it could go was exactly that, just speculation.  I'm going to still resist mentioning some of your calls....for now.  Honestly, haven't you got something better to do on a long weekend that start trouble on here again?

Not intending anything, you quoted a post i made on May 4th which is nearly a month ago.

Because I just saw it.  Let's leave it at that.

To be fair, FPH only got to $35 because it was a Covid fad stock.  Back when everyone thought respirators were required to save people from Covid, only to find out later that putting them on respirators was what killed them.  So the stock dropped back  to its pre-Covid levels.  Fortunately for FPH there is a surge of "excess deaths" occurring in the western world, so all those respirators FPH sold are still being used.  Always a silver lining eh?

The technicals look pretty good to me, I wouldnt be selling.  Its one of the few stocks still in a strong uptrend.  As Peter Lynch said, "water the flowers and cut the weeds".

Quote from: KW on May 31, 2024, 09:41 PMTo be fair, FPH only got to $35 because it was a Covid fad stock.  Back when everyone thought respirators were required to save people from Covid, only to find out later that putting them on respirators was what killed them.  So the stock dropped back  to its pre-Covid levels.  Fortunately for FPH there is a surge of "excess deaths" occurring in the western world, so all those respirators FPH sold are still being used.  Always a silver lining eh?

The technicals look pretty good to me, I wouldnt be selling.  Its one of the few stocks still in a strong uptrend.  As Peter Lynch said, "water the flowers and cut the weeds".

This simple 10 yr chart highlights FPH's long trend and the Covid era abnormal 'glitch' 2020 to 2022.

Focus on the long term trend with a great NZ company.

People who bought more FPH in the recent lows are smiling....... Friday's SP of $29.50 up about $9.50 ( or 47%) on FPH  12 months ago.

A good result and slight beat on Craig's fc.

Craig's say

FPH – Stephen Ridgewell has retained the Neutral recommendation on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare with a revised Target Price of $28.70 (+10%). The Title "Growing into its valuation" speaks to the challenge of maintaining a Neutral recommendation on a stock priced by global investors with a FY25/26/27 PE of 48x/42x/37x. Clearly, FPH is priced for perfection but what it has in its favour is a return to normalised earnings momentum after a volatile COVID period – the Charts below illustrate this to some extent with Ridgewell's revised FY25F/FY26F NPAT lifting c8-10% and representing YoY growth of +34%/+16%. Ridgewell's revised estimates are at the top of FPH's valuation range (revenue $1.9-2B, CIPe $1.995B, uNPAT $310-360m, CIPe $355m) reflecting his view that Guidance is conservative with margin Guidance better than expected due to 1) lower operating costs 2) lower freight costs and other gross margin improvements and 3) CCY tailwinds. The conviction around FPH's earnings momentum and outlook is underpinned by market share growth in Homecare (OSA) and secular compound growth in the Hospital segment

Quote from: KW on May 31, 2024, 09:41 PMTo be fair, FPH only got to $35 because it was a Covid fad stock.

Which is precisely why I rated it a sell back then and a lot of other stocks got disconnected from their metrics during that period, many fueled by once in the lifetime artificially ultra-low interest rates.

I'm with Craigs, its currently priced for absolute perfection like RYM was a decade ago at $8.50 and people were asking what could possibly go wrong... and look how that's worked out!  That's the thing with market darlings, they have to stay being market darlings and performing to perfection and if they don;t a massive destruction of capital occurs. 

I don't see much if any upside in the sp over the next year from its current level but its a great long term hold or trading stock as its very volatile even on a daily basis. It ticks a lot of boxes for a blue chip.

Quote from: Basil on Jun 01, 2024, 12:39 PMWhich is precisely why I rated it a sell back then and a lot of other stocks got disconnected from their metrics during that period, many fueled by once in the lifetime artificially ultra-low interest rates.

Thanks for reminding us yet again of your brilliance and perspicacity Basil......... however, it begs the question, when did you rate FPH as a 'buy'?

Quote from: Basil on Jun 01, 2024, 12:39 PMWhich is precisely why I rated it a sell back then and a lot of other stocks got disconnected from their metrics during that period, many fueled by once in the lifetime artificially ultra-low interest rates.

I'm with Craigs, its currently priced for absolute perfection like RYM was a decade ago at $8.50 and people were asking what could possibly go wrong... and look how that's worked out!  That's the thing with market darlings, they have to stay being market darlings and performing to perfection and if they don;t a massive destruction of capital occurs. 

so true, as soon as market darlings show a chink in their armor they get hammered

Could it be that stocks like this one are rare on the NZX and it attracts a price premium..

the problem with investing in the last 25 years is the instability of  global markets.

This could be why shares like this demand a higher SP  due to supply... Perhaps its time for a share split. 

 

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 02, 2024, 08:31 AMThanks for reminding us yet again of your brilliance and perspicacity Basil......... however, it begs the question, when did you rate FPH as a 'buy'?

I know right, we really need reminding.

Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 02, 2024, 10:27 AMCould it be that stocks like this one are rare on the NZX and it attracts a price premium..

It's a good question Waltzing.

I'm no expert, but it seems that traditionally comparing PE ratio's of other companies in a 'sector' gives us a measure of whether a company is relatively expensive or not. 

However, while it is helpful to compare PE's to determine comparative value of (say) retailers or car sales companies etc.  as most have similar operations and markets....  what happens when there are not many other similar companies to compare with?  Perhaps this is why on the NZX, FPH has long been regarded as "too expensive" and shunned by many because of its perceived high PE.

This is when it may be helpful to think about a company's 'unique moat' .FPH with its many international patents and trademarks, international manufacturing expertise, international market acceptance, vast international market potential etc etc., has few companies to compare with (indeed no other comparisons in the NZX) and FPH can be regarded as having a much wider/deeper 'moat' that sets it apart and protects it from competitors.

Perhaps considering FPH's unique 'moat' is another way to determine if the company is 'over priced" and whether the PE comparison is valid.

Perhaps the 'moat' consideration is a key reason why investors hold 'expensive' stocks such as FPH, GTK and IFT.

Anyway.... excuse my ramblings.....JMHO.

"ramblings."

interesting musings... and yes think you have highlighted why these stocks are highly values in NZ by investors...

any drop back has been supported by the markets..

Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 02, 2024, 10:27 AMCould it be that stocks like this one are rare on the NZX and it attracts a price premium..

the problem with investing in the last 25 years is the instability of  global markets.

This could be why shares like this demand a higher SP  due to supply... Perhaps its time for a share split. 

 

Quality companies are always expensive.  High growth ones even more so.  If using P/E to measure them, its often better to focus on P/E expansion rate rather than absolute value.  ie. if a stock usually trades on a P/E of 40 and then it goes up to 80 without much increase in the E, then its probably over priced.  But merely being on a P/E of 40 is not in and of itself a measure of over valuation.

FPH trades on the ASX as well, and is easily comparable to peers such as RMD and other healthcare companies, so there shouldnt be a NZX premium as such.

The corollary of P/E expansion for popular stocks, is the substantial P/E compression that occurs when such stocks show a deterioration in earnings growth.  Its often brutal (see RYM and A2M).  Mark Minervini says that when a market darling breaks down, there is a 80% chance it will lose 50% of its share price value, and a 50% chance of it losing 80%.  Something people might want to bear in mind when buying the current dogs of the NZX thinking they look "cheap".

It when the p/e hits the over 100 ... bit like debt of GDP...

Forward PE of 50 for FY25 according to the average of 14 analysts. 
Average rating just scrapes in as a hold. 4.1 / 10
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCARE--6492630/finances/

By way of comparison Resmed which is also forecast to grow strongly in the years ahead on a forward FY25 PE of 25, almost exactly half as demanding a multiple.  Average of 15 brokers rate Resmed Outperform, rating 7.7 / 10
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RESMED-INC-14259/finances/

Always pays to be very cautious when chasing "darling" stocks on very demanding metrics.    I suspect N.Z. institutions have a mandate to invest a certain percentage of their KiwiSaver funds in N.Z. stocks and there's very few quality stocks to choose from. 

Crikey, closing over $30 in fine style with 200,000 shares crossing at $30.10 before pivoting back to $30.0005

Big question is where to next??  (and no predictions from me ....although FPH on the ASX closed higher than NZX.)

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 04, 2024, 07:02 PMCrikey, closing over $30 in fine style with 200,000 shares crossing at $30.10 before pivoting back to $30.0005

Big question is where to next??  (and no predictions from me ....although FPH on the ASX closed higher than NZX.)

Where to next as it nudges $31? certainly running hot, probably pushing the engine to its max ability now.

Quote from: Breezy on Jun 05, 2024, 04:13 PMprobably pushing the engine to its max ability now.

Like a BMW M5 Competition V8 engine making 620 horsepower. 

Quote from: Basil on Jun 05, 2024, 04:16 PMLike a BMW M5 Competition V8 engine making 620 horsepower. 

Time to install a rev limiter about now id say.

RMD just got monkey hammered today, after Eli Lilly posted an update on their GLP drugs for sleep apnoea.  I dont know if FPH is as directly affected, but keep an eye out for any sustained selling.
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-tirzepatide-reduced-obstructive-sleep-apnea-osa-severity

Quote from: KW on Jun 24, 2024, 02:04 PMRMD just got monkey hammered today, after Eli Lilly posted an update on their GLP drugs for sleep apnoea.  I dont know if FPH is as directly affected, but keep an eye out for any sustained selling.
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-tirzepatide-reduced-obstructive-sleep-apnea-osa-severity

Thanks KW.

This pill is likely to be a game changer for Lily....particularly in its weight loss scenarios.

However, while FPH's SP is currently down some 6% on recent highs around $31.50, the longer term effect on FPH is yet to be determined, particularly as the Sleep Apnea market these days accounts for only 30-35% of FPH's revenue, and news of 'weight loss drugs' effects on the sleep apnea market have been around for some time. 

Increased attention to the issues of Sleep Apnea via promotion of these drug solutions has also been cited as expanding the overall sleep apnea market to the benefit of FPH!??

In addition, in recent times FPH has been busy strengthening its Hospital product group which includes products used in invasive ventilation, noninvasive ventilation, high flow therapy, anaesthesia, and laparoscopic and open surgery. These products apparently account for slightly over 60% of FPH's revenue (source FY24 AR) and "help healthcare providers improve patient outcomes, with economic benefits by reducing the need to escalate care and shortening patient stays in hospital."

That said, investors should watch these drug treatment developments carefully and your heads-up is appreciated.

( ....and happy I took some FPH profits off the table last week nicely above $31.00 to fund my IFT cap raise allocation.)

Further to the above post.... Kiora on the other channel posts research confirming the positive nature of weight loss pills on the sleep apnea market.

For those investors that are worrying about weight loss drugs impacting sales.
With all the news about them it has lead to an increase in health consultations.These lead to health programmes that also include treatment for obstructive sleep apnea.
The overall affect for FPH sleep apnea products:Positive


https://www.pewresearch.org/science/...ty-in-the-u-s/

Samsung released its 2024 new range of phones today which included Galaxy Watch Ultra and Watch 7 with sleep apnea detection...... increasing awareness going to be good for FPH.

https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/samsungs-jam-packed-galaxy-unpacked-galaxy-ring-z-fold-6-and-all-the-new-products-announced/

Nice close at $31.68....a 12 month high and on decent volumes.

Wow nearly $33 now and seriously overvalued, just dabble with small amounts in the mornings at these levels, got absolutely smashed last time it was around this price with a good sized holding. As the song says, she's a little bit dangerous.

Quote from: Breezy on Jul 24, 2024, 02:32 PMWow nearly $33 now and seriously overvalued, just dabble with small amounts in the mornings at these levels, got absolutely smashed last time it was around this price with a good sized holding. As the song says, she's a little bit dangerous.

You're not the first person to say FPH is overvalued..... nor will you be the last.

They say the same things about XRO too.

At the moment NZD $ exchange rate is helping things and the SP has been as high as $37.50 previously.

Until we get the next update it's all speculation.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 24, 2024, 02:50 PMYou're not the first person to say FPH is overvalued..... nor will you be the last.

They say the same things about XRO too.

At the moment NZD $ exchange rate is helping things and the SP has been as high as $37.50 previously.

Until we get the next update it's all speculation.

I know this stock pretty well and have learnt from previous experiences that when you don't vacate the kitchen when its getting too hot you get serious burns. Long term no problem but after the last 4 yrs I've had im very adverse to 3rd degree burns now.
On the analyst front out of 8 analysts only 1 rates it a buy with an avg tp of $25.95 over the 8.

FPH not listening to you Breezy

200 k at $33.00 late today........ (just saying)

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 24, 2024, 05:05 PMFPH not listening to you Breezy

200 k at $33.00 late today........ (just saying)

Index funds buying, they win some and they also lose just as often. They won't mind if it heads back to $31 next week but I would.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 24, 2024, 05:05 PMFPH not listening to you Breezy

200 k at $33.00 late today........ (just saying)

I guess we all know that markets tend to be bipolar. Either they are over the top, or they are depressed. Some (probably most) people follow the moods of the market - if Mr Market is paying too much they are happy and buy more, and if Mr. Market is paying too little they are depressed and sell.

Which means it makes no sense at all to use market transactions as evidence for stock value. They are just evidence for the current market mood. Just look at cryptocurrencies - they are worth nothing and there are still punters out there following every brain fart of Mr. Crypto-Market.

But hey, I know, we all love confirmation by the mighty and infallible Mr Market.

Personally I see long term value in a combination of NTA and earnings potential. Obviously - NTA for FPH is irrelevant (and negligible), and the earnings potential is up to everybody's best guess. However - I'd encourage you to just put into your favourite value formulas (e.g. Grahams) todays earnings and then try how large the earnings growth must be to justify the current SP. You will end up with a really big number for Growth CAGR. Really big.

Hint: Currently the Earnings CAGR (10 years back) of FPH is at 2.6% pa. Better than nothing, but not really amazing.

If you want to get an earnings CAGR justifying the current SP, it would need to be at least around 50 ... this is 20 times the current CAGR.

Good luck with that :);

But no doubt - Mr. Market knows better, until he changes his mood - and than he still knows better :)

Another strong close.... over 200k shares at $33.10

( Just saying..... again.)

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 15, 2024, 05:32 PMAnother strong close.... over 200k shares at $33.10

( Just saying..... again.)

Lol last time you highlighted this I commented about it going back to $31 odd the following week which it did, hold the hot potatoes lightly which can be a lot of fun.

Here is a chart showing the evolution of EPS for FPH for the past 15 years.  EPS is deconstructed to 'Sales per share' multiplied by NPAT %.

Approx 14 year CAGRs:
 1. Sales per share 7.7%
 2. NPAT% -0.5%
 3. Number of shares 0.9%
 3a. EPS 7.2%
 4. SP multiple expansion 7.0%

From the graph sales per share is heading in the right direction, but the issue for Management and investors is converting those sales to profit.  Whilst sales have reverted to the long term trend, NPAT has not.  Share issues dilute holders by about 1% per year but this hasn't stopped a P/E multiple expansion of 7% per year since 2010.

Good chart Ferg.....thanks

I suspect FPH would argue it confirms what they have been saying, ie FPH claim they reduced margins in Covid times (paid more for urgent freight etc)  in order to meet high demand and supply many new customers. FPH are saying they now have a lot more loyal customers using their products as a result, and are now moving to restore margins.

FPH also expanded capacity to keep up with demand during this period with new plants in Mexico and NZ etc.

If FPH are right with their long term view, then your RH column 'lows' should start bouncing up from FY25..... we shall soon see .....

Your next chart will be v interesting.

Good work there Ferg .... Very interesting

And as Leftie says an update next year hopefully will see all lines going up


Hint .... If you used the Insert function when adding charts they appear in the post itself and much more dramatic (and bigger) to view. It's in the drop down bit by the trash can.

Latest update.... plus an upgrade.....margins improving.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436696

At 31 July exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the first half of the 2025 financial year include a continuation of the current trading environment and result in revenue in the range of approximately $940 million to $950 million, and net profit after tax in the range of approximately $150 million to $160 million. At the midpoints of first half guidance, this would equate to 18% growth in reported operating revenue and 44% growth in reported net profit after tax, compared to the first half of the 2024 financial year.
 
 Outlook for the 2025 financial year
 The full year guidance previously provided in May was for operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $310 million to $360 million.
 
 At 31 July exchange rates*, the company continues to expect full year operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and now expects full year net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $320 million to $370 million.


On the other channel Winner says "$37 soon".......... I'm making no predictions, just a good solid happy hold for me. Onwards and upwards.
Up over $1 to $33.20 in early trading. Naaice.

Nice.

Currently at $33.35

2024 actual eps $.45 so a trailing PE of 74


2025 Craig's forecast 2025 eps $.60 =PE of 56

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 23, 2024, 09:29 AMLatest update.... plus an upgrade.....margins improving.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436696

At 31 July exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the first half of the 2025 financial year include a continuation of the current trading environment and result in revenue in the range of approximately $940 million to $950 million, and net profit after tax in the range of approximately $150 million to $160 million. At the midpoints of first half guidance, this would equate to 18% growth in reported operating revenue and 44% growth in reported net profit after tax, compared to the first half of the 2024 financial year.
 
 Outlook for the 2025 financial year
 The full year guidance previously provided in May was for operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $310 million to $360 million.
 
 At 31 July exchange rates*, the company continues to expect full year operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and now expects full year net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $320 million to $370 million.


On the other channel Winner says "$37 soon".......... I'm making no predictions, just a good solid happy hold for me. Onwards and upwards.
Up over $1 to $33.20 in early trading. Naaice.

Hmm - if I use their latest earnings forecast (which actually is pretty close to what the analysts predicted anyway), that's a medium of 59 cents EPS for FY25, which results (at todays SP) in a PE of 55.

Of course, I hear everybody talking about the amazing growth rates. While their revenue grew over the last 10 years with a CAGR of 10.8 (not bad ...) their earnings CAGR (and lets face it, this  is the only growth indicator which matters) was only 2.6% pa. Not that flash for a growth company, is it? But of course - the future will be different than the past, much brighter. Our (always) optimistic analysts predict a 5.5% earnings CAGR for the 10 year time window from year +3 to year -7. Better than the past (if it comes true), but does this really justify a PE of 55? You are the judge.

I see it as an amazing example for PE expansion. The only question is - when will the expansion stop and what happens after that point in time?

Discl: watching with patience and interest ...

Agree with BP and Shareguy the inflated PE is a key risk.

The ASX reaction is more important than the NZX opening IMO.......interesting times.

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 23, 2024, 11:21 AMAgree with BP and Shareguy the inflated PE is a key risk.

The ASX reaction is more important than the NZX opening IMO.......interesting times.

Going gangbusters on ASX

Nice upgrade but I share concerns about the forward PE.  Nevertheless, its Kingfish's biggest holding with 18% so good for their NTA which makes me happy. 

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 23, 2024, 09:29 AMLatest update.... plus an upgrade.....margins improving......

.....On the other channel Winner says "$37 soon".......... I'm making no predictions, just a good solid happy hold for me. Onwards and upwards.....

Last week the FPH SP reached a 12 month high.

In the last 12 months FPH has gained 74% in SP appreciation alone.

However some are concerned about FPH's high PE.

Some holding FPH seized the opportunity to buy or add more FHP at the recent 2022 lows in the  $19 and $20's. This helps mitigate recent high PE fears.

High PE fears are nothing new for FPH. Even during the 2022 SP 'lows' I recall one noted posted saying FHP was overpriced with a high PE. (The poster thought FPH was then only a buy if the SP dropped to $14.00)

The attached 10yr  logarithmic SP chart for FPH is a chart of great beauty and implies that apart from the Covid highs/lows, FPH SP is back on a healthy long term trend. (NOTE: The trend is even more impressive if compared to NZX50.)

GLH's.

Nicely above Winner's prediction of $37..... and much interest on the ASX today around (and above) the $NZ 37.60 mark.... bodes well.

New Apple Watch has sleep apnea detection.......increased awareness is good for FHP.

Health is always a major area of focus for the Apple Watch, and that's no different this year. Sleep apnea detection is coming to the watch through a new metric that can pick up potential breathing disturbances overnight. You'll be able to view nightly values in the health app, and the Apple Watch will analyze your breathing disturbances every 30 days and notify you if it finds consistent signs of moderate to severe sleep apnea. Apple says it expects FDA clearance for the feature soon.

The announcement comes after Samsung introduced sleep apnea detection to its smartwatches earlier this year, further underscoring how smartwatches are becoming powerful health-tracking devices.

Winner found this quote in an article from Business Week and I liked it.....ssoo here it is:

Call it the revenge of the real economy but after what seemed like years when "new economy" stocks – typically software or internet-linked stocks boasting great ideas but negligible revenues – achieved stellar valuations, slowly but surely, old economy stocks are fighting back.

Take Xero and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

Some months back, Xero's sharemarket worth far outdistanced F&P Healthcare, yet the medical equipment leader is now on the cusp of besting the sharemarket value accorded to the global accounting software outfit.

Among the top 150 companies listed on the ASX, at the end of March, Xero was ranked No 26, with a market value of A$20.3 billion (NZ$22b), with F&P Healthcare trailing far behind, coming in at 38, with a value at A$13.8b (NZ$15b).

They were ranked well ahead of the next largest New Zealand company, Mercury Energy, which stood at 63 with an A$8.9b (NZ$9.6b) valuation. Spark and Infratil were ranked number 69 and 70 respectively.

By the end of last week, that gap between Xero and F&P Healthcare had all but disappeared, with Xero holding steady at 26 on the list of top 150 stocks, with a value of A$21.7b (NZ$23.6b), with F&P Healthcare ranked next, with a value of A$20.7b (NZ$22.5b).

A nice read for FPH holders.

Big crossing of over 1.5 mill shares at all time high of $39.29 today.

FPH benefiting from index rebalancing........Interesting times.....  next update due on Thursday 28 Nov.

Updated this stuff for FPH

NPAT back on  long term trend of the mad times during and post covid

One term profit (and sales) growth has been 12% pa

Currently on PE about 70 ...market seems to think 40 is about fair over time ...hmmm

IMG_6002.pngIMG_6001.png

Cheers winner for this update. Interesting chart. P/E ratio looks stellar. Will we seeing a double Top?

Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 29, 2024, 11:30 AMCheers winner for this update. Interesting chart. P/E ratio looks stellar. Will we seeing a double Top?

Hope not BP

Retrace from double top could mean share price heading back to around $25

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 29, 2024, 12:45 PMHope not BP

Retrace from double top could mean share price heading back to around $25

... which would make it much more affordable - though still not a bargain :) ;

Interesting article: https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/fast-growers-are-common-fast-compounders

Basically shows if you expect any company to grow at 10% for the long term, these companies don't really exist. Always tricky when the price you are paying implies that this growth is a certainty.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 16, 2025, 12:36 PM(From the best investments thread..).....given  the NZ$ at new lows compared to the US$ (and this likely to remain so for at least 2025, (depending on Trump's economic success or failures,) then I suspect NZ companies that earn a significant part of their income in $USD will out-perform in 2025.

IFT, GTK and FPH look 'well positioned' and relatively low risk with the current USD strength in mind (but perhaps less so if you are purchasing at today's SP, rather than having acquired slowly and steadily at lower share prices over the last few years.)

JMHO. DYOR.

Crikey, Winner might even be agreeing with me... (FPH up $1.00 last  Friday.)

(From the other channel....)

Close Report - Market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare rose $1.05 or 2.77% to $38.90, its second-highest close. The medical devices manufacturer, which has a 15% weighting on the NZX, touched $39.21 on November 25

No doubt falling NZD helping as well

Looking forward to 40 bucks ...next week?

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 19, 2025, 11:02 AMCrikey, Winner might even be agreeing with me... (FPH up $1.00 last  Friday.)

(From the other channel....)

Close Report - Market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare rose $1.05 or 2.77% to $38.90, its second-highest close. The medical devices manufacturer, which has a 15% weighting on the NZX, touched $39.21 on November 25

No doubt falling NZD helping as well

Looking forward to 40 bucks ...next week?

Aroha mai for pooping on the party but Trump is a two side coin.  He poses a risk to FPH with immediate threats (from 20 Jan) of tariffs on Mexico and China.  FPH has two manufacturing facilities in Tijuana and another in Guangzhou.  Trump said he would sign an order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican imports and an "additional" 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods on the first day of his administration. How much of this comes to pass is anyone's guess, we shall soon see thou'.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 19, 2025, 01:04 PMAroha mai for pooping on the party but Trump is a two side coin.  He poses a risk to FPH with immediate threats (from 20 Jan) of tariffs on Mexico and China.  FPH has two manufacturing facilities in Tijuana and another in Guangzhou.  Trump said he would sign an order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican imports and an "additional" 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods on the first day of his administration. How much of this comes to pass is anyone's guess, we shall soon see thou'.

You should know better than to question what could possibly go wrong with buying market darling companies on humungous PE ratio's ;)  (123 times from Jarden's website).  Disc: Kingfish have quite a few and I have quite a few Kingfish.  Hope they know what they're doing  ???

Anything possible under Trump.....and all possibilities pure speculation at this stage.

Would Trump include 'essential' medical supplies in speculated tariffs?

Could FPH switch origin of USA exports from Mexico to NZ to avoid/mitigate tariffs?

Could FPH grow it's Chinese production & Asian sales to offset any USA restrictions?

Anything is possible....all is speculation... including Lord Basil's prediction for FPH to go below $15..... lol.

LOL you really are getting desperate to be top dog digging back to predictions made in a downcycle many years ago.

Quote from: Left Field on Jan 19, 2025, 03:27 PMAnything possible under Trump.....and all possibilities pure speculation at this stage.

Would Trump include 'essential' medical supplies in speculated tariffs?

Could FPH switch origin of USA exports from Mexico to NZ to avoid/mitigate tariffs?

Could FPH grow it's Chinese production & Asian sales to offset any USA restrictions?

Anything is possible....all is speculation... including Lord Basil's prediction for FPH to go below $15..... lol.

Sure - anything is possible in a market run by fear and greed.

At this stage FPH's backward PE (10 years) is 93.5 - i.e. they need to accumulate nearly hundred years of last decades average earnings to pay back their current share price. What an investment! FOMO happy to pay whatever the cost, but when the bubble bursts, things might change fast.

Just curious - what future earnings growth rate do holders assume? Current EPS CAGR for FPH was in average 2.6% p.a. over the past decade. OK - its a positive number, but not really a big number - and to justify the current price they would need to more than 10-fold their annual earnings growth.

Are current holders really just all dancing very close to a very large exit? Must be quite a spectacle when the party stops.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 20, 2025, 10:50 AMCurrent EPS CAGR for FPH was in average 2.6% p.a. over the past decade.

Where did you get 2.6% from?

P.S.  Is that based on reported NPAT for 2024 that included the one-off write down of property by $98m?

FPH back on trend after the recent bonus years during pandemic as per chart

So I'd say looking forward no matter what's thrown at them a good guess would be profits should grow at about 12% pa ...like it has in the past

IMG_6050.jpeg

Nice image Winner and food for thought for the bulls, for sure.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCARE--6492630/finances/

Trades on 61 times average analyst expectations for FY25 profit.  In the two years following that I note expectations are for eps growth of 24% and 21%.  Consensus rating is hold but I note the average price target one year hence is just $34.80, (suggests fair value now is about $32), so it's fair to say analysts think at the current price FPH has got well ahead of fair value. 

FPH PE over the years shown below

Current PE is 74 based on rolling 12 months profit (normalised) pf $310m as at Sep24

Expectations are for $358m which reduces PE to high 60's if met

Take from this What you want

IMG_6051.png

Reached all time high of $39.50 at 1.45pm  and I thought yippee $40 by end I'd day

Must have given market a big fright ..DOWN 3.4% since then

From your most insightful chart above it looks like the average PE over the last 10 years is about 39 noting also It would be considerably lower if you averaged out data from years earlier than that.  Deserves a premium PE multiple but 39 makes a lot more sense to me than what the market is currently ascribing it.  Well covered by 12 analysts and average expected eps for FY25 is 61.56 cps. Apply a 39 multiple to that = $24. Hmmm

Trump just imposed a 25% tariff on all goods entering the US from Mexico. 

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 21, 2025, 03:19 PMReached all time high of $39.50 at 1.45pm  and I thought yippee $40 by end I'd day

Must have given market a big fright ..DOWN 3.4% since then

Just look at your PR ratio chart above. Might have been the peak and turn into a beautiful double top.

King Dump started the Trade war in earnest.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-says-tariffs-are-coming-on-computer-chips-steel-and-more-cef9974c?mod=djem10point

(might be paywalled)

25% on everything coming from Mexico across the US border. Will be interesting to see, how this will impact on FPH's business (with product coming out of their Mexican factory into the US).

FPH PE multiple not so high now

YUP - trade war effects?

wait till someone starts shooting...

history people ...history..

what a dump ...shes a dumpy market now... who and what is next...

could there be a flight to property stocks?

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 03, 2025, 10:36 AMFPH PE multiple not so high now

True - with every down wave the historic PE will look better (though this is not certain for the forward PE - the E well might follow the P on the way down ;);

Question is - how many down waves do we expect before Dumps trade war ends?

TRP's TF's are now off ... till next time...

just gave the SP a bit of a back down to earth...

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-presidency-news-02-03-25/index.html

FPH's response to USA Tariff's announced today.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449562

Today the United States announced new tariffs on products manufactured outside the US, including a 10% tariff on products manufactured in New Zealand.
 
In early March the US enacted a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Almost all Fisher & Paykel Healthcare products imported into the US from Mexico are currently compliant with the USMCA.
 
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare currently manufactures approximately 45% of its volume in Mexico and approximately 55% in New Zealand, and for the first half of the 2025 financial year approximately 43% of the company's revenue came from the US. Approximately 60% of the company's US volumes are supplied from Mexico and approximately 40% are supplied from New Zealand. The company's manufacturing facilities in both Mexico and New Zealand have spare capacity to increase volumes if required.
 
The company does not anticipate a material impact from the US tariffs on its net profit after tax for the 2025 financial year, which ended 31 March 2025.
 
For the 2026 financial year, the company's costs would likely increase due to the new tariffs, acknowledging the economic environment, global response to US tariffs and foreign currency movements may be fluid over this period.
 
The company continues to expect to reach its gross margin target through its long-standing continuous improvement activities across the entire business, coupled with efficient growth into existing infrastructure. US tariffs may add to that timeframe.
 
The company will provide an update on outlook for the 2026 financial year, as well as an updated estimate of the timeframe to return to its gross margin target, at its full year results at the end of May.

Seems the early traders overreacted today around $33.00  compared to a subsequent large trade at $35.11 ........ interesting.

Wow, great result....holders will be v happy.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452357

Overview of key results for the 2025 financial year
 • 16% growth in operating revenue to $2.02 billion, 14% growth in constant currency.
 • 43% growth in underlying net profit after tax to $377.2 million, 30% growth in constant currency.
 • 18% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.28 billion, 16% growth in constant currency.
 • 20% revenue growth for new applications consumables, 18% growth in constant currency.
 • 13% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $739.9 million, 11% growth in constant currency.
 • 14% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 11% growth in constant currency.
 • Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $226.9 million.
 • 2% increase in final dividend to 24.0 cps (2024: 23.5 cps).
 • 2% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 42.5 cps (2024: 41.5 cps).
 
 Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, "During the 2025 financial year, we stayed focused on the fundamentals of our business and we achieved strong results, with annual revenue of more than $2 billion for the first time in our history."
 
 Total operating revenue was a record $2.02 billion, an increase of 16% from the prior financial year, or 14% in constant currency. This was driven by broad-based growth in hospital consumables and double-digit growth in masks for treating obstructive sleep apnea.
 
 Net profit after tax for the financial year was $377.2 million, a 43% increase over the 2024 financial year, or 30% in constant currency. These growth rates are against underlying net profit after tax for the 2024 financial year, which excluded three abnormal items.

A good result and holders will be happy indeed.

Some graphs based on this morning's report.

NPAT% has turned.  Eagle eyed investors will note 2024 excludes the property devaluation and deferred tax impact.  All other years are genuine NPAT, but nice to see profit percentage has increased.  Note the COVID blip to revenues in 2021 and FPH are have reverted back to the trend.

FPH EPS 2025 - Copy.JPG

FPH are fundamentally debt free:

FPH Debts 2025 - Copy.JPG

And it looks like FPH are backing into their P/E ratio:

FPH PER 2025 - Copy.JPG

10 year CAGR's:
 ~ sales +11.6%
 ~ NPAT% +1.0%
 ~ share count +0.5%
 ~ EPS +12.2%
 ~ P/E multiple +4.9%
 ~ Share Price +17.7%

Quote from: Left Field on May 28, 2025, 09:08 AMWow, great result....holders will be v happy.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452357

Overview of key results for the 2025 financial year
 • 16% growth in operating revenue to $2.02 billion, 14% growth in constant currency.
 • 43% growth in underlying net profit after tax to $377.2 million, 30% growth in constant currency.
 • 18% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.28 billion, 16% growth in constant currency.
 • 20% revenue growth for new applications consumables, 18% growth in constant currency.
 • 13% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $739.9 million, 11% growth in constant currency.
 • 14% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 11% growth in constant currency.
 • Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $226.9 million.
 • 2% increase in final dividend to 24.0 cps (2024: 23.5 cps).
 • 2% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 42.5 cps (2024: 41.5 cps).
 
 Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, "During the 2025 financial year, we stayed focused on the fundamentals of our business and we achieved strong results, with annual revenue of more than $2 billion for the first time in our history."
 
 Total operating revenue was a record $2.02 billion, an increase of 16% from the prior financial year, or 14% in constant currency. This was driven by broad-based growth in hospital consumables and double-digit growth in masks for treating obstructive sleep apnea.
 
 Net profit after tax for the financial year was $377.2 million, a 43% increase over the 2024 financial year, or 30% in constant currency. These growth rates are against underlying net profit after tax for the 2024 financial year, which excluded three abnormal items.

Well, yes - good result, but doesn't change the fact that the share is more than fully priced.

Forward PE (3yrs) is 48, backward PE (10 years) is nearly 80 - and this is dear even considering the 8% forward earnings CAGR. Just looking at the market - it appears holders are not that happy - or do they all need to buy a deck at the same time?

Just noticed - SP just dropped below the MA200. Sure - early days (hours, minutes) - and might be just jitter, but then - it might not.

Discl: not holding, but would be prepared to pick some shares up around or below $18 ....

Illustrating BP's point, what is a fair PE for growth stocks ?
FPH ~ EPS +12.2% CAGR for the last decade per Ferg analysis and that's allegedly worth a PE of 50.
TRA ~ EPS 10% CAGR for the last decade per Ferg analysis and that's only worth a PE of 12.7

One or the other or probably both are being mispriced.  I do understand the total addressable market is bigger for FPH but TRA also has a long runway of growth ahead and has a far  more stable earnings growth profile over the last decade.

I'll stick to my favorite CAGR stocks.  This dog is value investor and believes compelling metrics matter !

A fair question.  When looking at CAGR's for FPH, the shorter time frames of 10 years have higher numbers than for longer time frames.  For instance they first cracked $500m revenue in 2010 and it took them 9 years to double that to $1b.  It then took them 6 years to double that again to $2b.  I don't have enough data to make the same comparison for TRA.  With >10% CAGR on EPS, the P/E ratio is reduced by 10% or more compounding each year.....assuming no change in SP.

FPH spend a lot on R&D which is clearly paying off for them, and they are pretty much debt free.  Also consider the macro trend towards the use of managed funds.....by default a number of them will have to buy FPH given its size.

So I wouldn't wait for this to be below $20 to buy; it was last there in mid 2022 during the panic that followed the COVID share frenzy....you may need to see some sort of black swan event and over-reaction to see sub-$20 again given sales and profits are reverting back to the long term trend.

One would hope that FPH are already on to this??

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/11/business/sleep-apnea-negative-pressure-spc

Nice to see this institution taking a stake in FPH.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/455911

Crickey had to go back 3 pages to locate FPH........Not loved on this forum?

Anyways, a good update today. Revenue climbing over $2.0 Billion etc.  FY 26 projections rather conservative, but that is the FPH way..... undersell and overdeliver. I expect future upgrades all being equal. FPH's big picture goal is to  double revenue every 5 - 6 years. Strong NPAT growth continues.

At 31 July exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the first half of the 2026 financial year include a continuation of the current trading environment and result in revenue of approximately $1.075 billion and net profit after tax of approximately $200 million. This would equate to approximately 13% growth in reported operating revenue and approximately 31% growth in reported net profit after tax, compared to the first half of the 2025 financial year.


Here's the link for today's meeting and update

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/457173

FPH still not much loved on this forum (only 270 posts v (say) over 1600 posts for TRA)...... however, boring is good and this latest update and upgrade will be welcomed by holders.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/463379

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare delivers strong growth for the first half; net profit up 39%
 
"Auckland, New Zealand, 26 November 2025 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited (NZX:FPH, ASX:FPH) has announced its results for the first half of the 2026 financial year, which ended 30 September 2025.
 
 Total operating revenue was $1.09 billion, an increase of 14% over the first half of the prior financial year, or 12% in constant currency. Net profit after tax was $213.0 million, an increase of 39% over the first half of the prior financial year, or 28% in constant currency.
 
.....The company's directors have approved an interim dividend of 19.0 cents per ordinary share, up from 18.5 cents per share in the first half of the prior year. The interim dividend, carrying full New Zealand imputation credit, will be paid on 16 December 2025 with a record date of 4 December 2025.
 
 Looking ahead
 
 The full-year guidance previously provided in August was for operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $2.15 billion to $2.25 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $390 million to $440 million.
 
 At 31 October exchange rates*, the company now expects full-year operating revenue in the range of approximately $2.17 billion to $2.27 billion and full-year net profit after tax in the range of approximately $410 million to $460 million."

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2026 financial year
 • 14% increase in operating revenue to $1.09 billion, 12% increase in constant currency.
 • 39% increase in net profit after tax to $213.0 million, 28% increase in constant currency.
 • 17% increase in Hospital operating revenue to $692.2 million, 15% increase in constant currency.
 • 16% increase in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 74% of Hospital consumables revenue.
 • 10% increase in Homecare operating revenue to $395.9 million, 8% increase in constant currency.
 • 6% increase in constant currency for OSA masks and accessories revenue.
 • Investment in R&D was 10% of revenue, or $114.1 million.
 • Increase in interim dividend to 19.0 cps (1H FY25: 18.5 cps).
 

Seeing as you brought it up Left Field.  Maybe people don't post about it because they think its fully valued and not a growth at a reasonable price company and there's little to no opportunity here that isn't already priced for absolute perfection ?
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCARE--6492630/

Noting market consensus EPS forecast for FY28 of $1.015 that compares with 31 cps in FY18 which is impressive growth but I just put that into a CAGR calculator and if FPH hit their target EPS in FY28 that's a decade long CAGR of 12.59%

The thing is Turners has been growing at the same rate and forecast to continue doing so and its on a forecast FY26 PE of 16 whereas FPH is more than triple that on a forward PE of 49.8  You are paying a PEG ratio for FPH (price earnings to growth) of just on 4 whereas for TRA is just on 1.3
(By way of comparison, according to a recent presentation by Barramundi the average PEG ratio for ASX 200 stocks is 3.2)

Over the last year FPH is down 4% and TRA is up 48%, (does not include dividend returns which are much higher for TRA).  Maybe people were right to be discussing mispriced value opportunities ?

Quote from: Left Field on Nov 26, 2025, 08:39 AMFPH still not much loved on this forum (only 270 posts v (say) over 1600 posts for TRA)...... however, boring is good and this latest update and upgrade will be welcomed by holders.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/463379

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare delivers strong growth for the first half; net profit up 39%

...

Well, I guess they are a well run company.

Question however is, whether they are worth the price people pay for it. Forward PE (over a 10 year window, i.e. 7 years past and 3 years prediction) is 48. Backwards PE (10years) is 80. This means that (if analyst forecasts are right) it will take nearly 50 years before the company earns the price people pay at the moment for the share.

Sure - Earnings CAGR is 8. But still - 48 minus 8 is still 40 years ...

Just have a look at the longterm SP developemnt. If you bought them a couple of years ago for 17 dollars, its (if you sell now) a good traders share. If you bought them five years ago for nearly $40 plus ... not so much.

Hard to see how people think, how FPH will ever earn the current SP (within an acceptable tme), but hey - if its just follow the trend ... though not quite sure, the trend is currently going upwards, is it?

Quote from: Basil on Nov 26, 2025, 09:46 AMOver the last year FPH is down 4% and TRA is up 48%, (does not include dividend returns which are much higher for TRA).  Maybe people were right to be discussing mispriced value opportunities ?

Quantity v Quality???  IMO It's all about having a balanced LT portfolio..... I'm more than happy with a TOTAL NZX portfolio gain YTD 2025 of  over 25% (in SP gains alone, ie excluding divvies)

FPH up 60% (excl dividends) on my av hold SP of $23.00... so more than happy to hold FPH at the quality end of my NZX portfolio.

There is no "black or white, right or wrong" in share investing..... just different returns.

So yes happy holder.

Fair enough Left Field.  As you quite rightly point out, there's more than one way to skin a cat.
Mr Market likes the result.

FPH was unloved last year..... but is that about to change? Blake Henricks  say's it is.... (whoever he  is?  Posted on the other channel. )

Growth stock picks for 2026


Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Blake Henricks: I've got Fisher and Paykel. So this is in the growth space, but it's in the physical world, so we don't have to worry too much about AI. When I talk about Fisher and Paykel, most people think about fridges, but they're not. They're actually in the hospital setting. And what Fisher and Paykel at its core is doing is if you go in with a respiratory illness, traditionally the way they've helped you breathe is with a full mask over your face. You've got the elastic over the top and that's giving you oxygen.

What Fisher and Paykel have got is what's called a nasal cannula. And this is a tube of oxygen that comes over here and sits here. Why this business is growing is because that's great for patients. Patients love it. They can talk. They don't get the dry throat. They can eat. It's great. And there's been a whole bunch of research done post COVID and all the respiratory issues that came then that this is non-inferior. So that's a sort of funny term, but basically what it means, it's not worse on the face.

It doesn't have to be better, it can just be basically the same. And so that's being proven out. And so this is a business that's growing revenue just in the past year at 12%. Its earnings grew at 28% and it's on one of the lowest multiples we've seen in almost a decade. And so that's one we really like. We think they're taking a lot of market share. They're already 90% market share and 90% of the revenue in the hospital space is coming from those consumables, which is much more recurring. Great business."

It's from the Aussie YouTube channel Livewire Markets

Great stuff ...from Market Roundup -

Market leader Fisher & Paykel Healthcare led the way by reaching an all-time high after gaining 27c to $40.02 on trade worth $35.86m.

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 04, 2026, 07:17 PMGreat stuff ...from Market Roundup -

Market leader Fisher & Paykel Healthcare led the way by reaching an all-time high after gaining 27c to $40.02 on trade worth $35.86m.

Good stuff ... at $40.02 their 10 year backward PE is 87 - and even when looking into the future returns its still 52. 52 years for the company to earn their share price - that's nealy a 2% return per year!

Sounds great. What is the current rate of inflation? Oh, oops ...

Nice upgrade..... surely this will take the  SP over $40 !!??

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/467924

Been a nice ride since the mid $20's

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 23, 2026, 08:39 AMNice upgrade..... surely this will take the  SP over $40 !!??

Go on FPH you know you can do it......reaching 5 yr highs  and briefly over $40 today.....

Crikey ...... Large crossing on NZX close @ $40.10. (Even higher on the ASX,)

Auspicious.  Trumps empty tariff threats for Mexico and new 10% level is good news for FPH  it seems.

My bond proxy holding in FPH doing just fine.

Crikey.... even Winner is excited.

"Close at $41.00 ....ALL TIME HIGH

Things looking good ...no reason why $45 is next stop"

 From Market Close report -

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare declined $1.10 or 2.95% to $36.25 following the collapse of the Cochlear share price on the Australian exchange.

Greg Smith, investment specialist with Generate, said Fisher and Paykel was one of the few Australasian healthcare stocks that hadn't been hammered – "that's not to say it will happen".

Cochlear, which supplies hearing devices, has plunged 48% in the last two trading days and at 6pm NZ time was trading at a 10-year low of A$92.11(NZ$111.90) after cutting its net profit guidance to A$290m-$330m, from $435m-$460m.

Cochlear, a blue-chip stock on the ASX 200, has lost nearly 70% of its value this year.

Biotechnology multi-national CSL had declined a further 4% to a nine-year low of A$128.67 after also providing profit warnings.

Smith said the Australian stocks are trading at less than 20 times earnings, and Fisher and Paykel is at 40 times. "Fisher and Paykel is a high-quality company, but maybe there is an awareness of the major slip-ups and downgrades in the sector."

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 23, 2026, 07:05 PMFrom Market Close report -

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare declined $1.10 or 2.95% to $36.25 following the collapse of the Cochlear share price on the Australian exchange.

Greg Smith, investment specialist with Generate, said Fisher and Paykel was one of the few Australasian healthcare stocks that hadn't been hammered – "that's not to say it will happen"......"

Cochlear, which supplies hearing devices, has plunged 48% in the last two trading days and at 6pm NZ time was trading at a 10-year low of A$92.11(NZ$111.90) after cutting its net profit guidance to A$290m-$330m, from $435m-$460m........

Thanks Winner, no doubt the uncertainty surrounding Cochlear (ASX) is causing concerns for the FPH SP this week.

However this recent report shows the big picture for FPH remains encouraging.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/07/3269732/0/en/Global-Anesthesia-and-Respiratory-Devices-Market-Size-Share-Worth-USD-100-5-Billion-by-2035-at-a-5-8-CAGR-Healthcare-Foresights-Analysis-Outlook-Leaders-Report-Trends-Forecast-Segm.html

According to the latest research study, the global Anesthesia and Respiratory Devices Market was valued at approximately USD 57.2 billion in 2025, is expected to reach USD 60.5 billion in 2026, and is projected to reach around USD 100.5 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 5.8% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2035.


Current SP weakness likely a short term buying opportunity for collectors.

Fabulous result! Well done holders.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/473285

Total operating revenue was $2.31 billion, an increase of 14% from the prior financial year, or 12% in constant currency. Net profit after tax for the financial year was $468.5 million, a 24% increase over the 2025 financial year, or 28% in constant currency.

Overview of key results for the 2026 financial year
• 14% growth in operating revenue to $2.31 billion, 12% growth in constant currency.
• 24% growth in net profit after tax to $468.5 million, 28% growth in constant currency.
• 18% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.51 billion, 15% growth in constant currency.
• 18% revenue growth for new applications consumables, 16% growth in constant currency.
• 16% revenue growth for hospital consumables, 14% growth in constant currency.
• 8% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $802.7 million, 7% growth in constant currency.
• 7% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 5% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 10% of revenue, or $235.5 million.
• 38% increase in final dividend to 33.0 cps (2025: 24.0 cps).
• 22% increase in total dividend for the financial year to 52.0 cps (2025: 42.5 c

Nothing wrong with that result! All key indicators moving in the right direction. IFT, FPH, RYM all doing well - might bode well for funds like KFL maybe?

Nice to see FHP's SP climbing on the back of their strong results.... heading north of $37.00 today.

I've always considered my FHP holding (and IFT) as the 'bond equivalents' in my NZX portfolio...(safe, boring etc)

Much better  than using BRM & KFL as default 'bond' investments IMHO.

(Topped up a few more yesterday, MY DCA circa $25 so 'well positioned'.)

Quote from: Left Field on May 27, 2026, 07:56 AMNice to see FHP's SP climbing on the back of their strong results.... heading north of $37.00 today.

I've always considered my FHP holding (and IFT) as the 'bond equivalents' in my NZX portfolio...(safe, boring etc)

Now I know vhy zhey call you 'Left Field'.  F&P Healthcare has varied een price between $20 and $40 over ze last vive years.  Infratil between $6 and $16, zo both very volatile.   Dividend yields vor both are veery low.  Zhese zhares are een ze very highest risk category.  Ze exact opposite of bonds which tend to be var more capital ztable and geeve you a good predeectible eencome!

RB

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 26, 2026, 09:44 AMNothing wrong with that result! All key indicators moving in the right direction. IFT, FPH, RYM all doing well - might bode well for funds like KFL maybe?

Looks like KFL nta around 1.268 at cob yesterday - so up around 5% since last wednesday. Share price only moved about 1/3rd of that though

Quote from: Red Baron on May 27, 2026, 06:00 PMNow I know vhy zhey call you 'Left Field'.  F&P Healthcare has varied een price between $20 and $40 over ze last vive years.  Infratil between $6 and $16, zo both very volatile.   Dividend yields vor both are veery low.  Zhese zhares are een ze very highest risk category.  Ze exact opposite of bonds which tend to be var more capital ztable and geeve you a good predeectible eencome!

RB

Respected poster Kiora only has 2 shares in his NZX portfolio. FPH at 20% and IFT at 80%.

Set and forget.... interesting strategy.

Quote from: Left Field on May 28, 2026, 02:05 PMRespected poster Kiora only has 2 shares in his NZX portfolio. FPH at 20% and IFT at 80%.

Set and forget.... interesting strategy.

Not zaying eet eez a bad ztrategy, vor zhose villing to take ze rixk.  Just calling you out on your 'bond equivalent' remark.

RB

P.S.  Not a particular van of bonds myzelf

Quote from: Red Baron on May 28, 2026, 04:23 PMNot zaying eet eez a bad ztrategy, vor zhose villing to take ze rixk.  Just calling you out on your 'bond equivalent' remark.

RB

P.S.  Not a particular van of bonds myzelf

Here's how the last 10 yrs looked based on SP only.

Probably better returns than bonds!   ;)

Nice chart LF. Says it all. People have different investment timeframes and some favour high dividends (riskier in my view) over long term tax-free capital gain. But as your graph shows, if you pick the right companies, and stick with them, you can make more money, more safely. Given the pretty much relentless climb of IFT I'm predicting that its SP will surpass FPH's in 5 years or so. 

Quote from: Left Field on May 28, 2026, 05:00 PMHere's how the last 10 yrs looked based on SP only.

Probably better returns than bonds!   ;)

Abzolutely, vhich proves my point.  Bonds do not tend to go up een value like zhat, nor do they go down, like Zky Zity.   The vact zhat you chose Visher and Paykel Healthcare as a illustrative example zimply zhows you are a very good retrospective investor.

RB

Quote from: Red Baron on May 28, 2026, 10:06 PMAbzolutely, vhich proves my point.  Bonds do not tend to go up een value like zhat, nor do they go down, like Zky Zity.   The vact zhat you chose Visher and Paykel Healthcare as a illustrative example zimply zhows you are a very good retrospective investor.

My original comment related to an observation that in MY actual NZX portfolio I likened MY holdings in FHP and IFT as MY  'bond equivalents."

It is a relative comparison of the comparative safety of some shares in MY NZX  portfolio to others in MY portfolio. That's all.

Time to move on RB.