StockTalk

General Category => ASX => Topic started by: Left Field on Jul 05, 2022, 12:40 PM

Title: DGL.ASX
Post by: Left Field on Jul 05, 2022, 12:40 PM
Bell Potter has made this their top stock pick for FY22 with a target SP of $A3.50

Now absent from the NZX after the Nadia Lim debacle where its SP was marked down from (approx)  $NZ 4.40 to around $NZ 2.70 it now currently trades at about $AU 2.89 on ASX.

I like the counter cyclical/scandal beaten down SP of this one (Niche market and NTA around $NZ 115.00 ) so added it to my portfolio at recent lows. P/E still horrendously high so only a small holding at this stage.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Jul 26, 2022, 12:42 PM
Similar boat to you mate.  Secondary reasoning for purchase was the virtue signalling that went on.  That never lasts.  Fundamentally, the company does the same thing it did before, so I see this being a nice earner over the next 6-12 months.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Auto Rower on Jul 30, 2022, 10:44 AM
Totally its about the sp and its future growth not the woke ethics
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Left Field on Aug 23, 2022, 04:57 PM
SP having a nice little run lately and TA indicators looking improved...... hope I haven't put the hex on it!

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Aug 31, 2022, 01:23 PM
well, big oof there...down 25%??
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Left Field on Aug 31, 2022, 03:10 PM
Quote from: arekaywhy on Aug 31, 2022, 01:23 PMwell, big oof there...down 25%??

Not good..... and I suspect this statement caused today's SP decline (market being forward looking);

 In FY22, because of strategically higher stock holdings, expanded capabilities, balance sheet strength and the Group's execution, DGL achieved some opportunistic growth in earnings which is unlikely to be replicated to the same extent in FY23. In addition, inflationary cost pressures across the globe may also have an impact on the earnings growth, albeit the Group will look to respond accordingly. These impacts are expected to be offset by a full year's contribution from the Group's FY22 acquisitions and other organic growth projects. Therefore, the Group anticipates its earnings growth to flatten in FY23 as a result.

Onus now on DGL to ensure earnings growth does not flatten too much!



Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Left Field on Sep 01, 2022, 10:40 AM
Just had time to read DGL's complete report...meanwhile market seems not impressed with yesterdays results detailing Revenue up 88% and NPAT up 197% etc.

http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20220831/02561300.pdf?uid=635C91031146C442916FCAC892A74FBAD8190000460D7F1BCFE0E540093D250091850000&ppv=

DGL's choice of words to describe FY23 prospects clearly not liked causing the selling pressure of 15 mill shares likely to have come out of voluntary escrow. Phew not for the fainthearted.




Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Sep 01, 2022, 03:21 PM
Another smack down day...making me start to pay attention. 

This company does actually have good fundamentals I reckon.

Anyone familiar with other players in their market?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Sep 01, 2022, 03:47 PM
Quote from: arekaywhy on Sep 01, 2022, 03:21 PMAnother smack down day...making me start to pay attention. 

This company does actually have good fundamentals I reckon.

Anyone familiar with other players in their market?

Considering it hit $4.49 in April it sure has fallen out of favour eh
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Sep 01, 2022, 04:47 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 01, 2022, 03:47 PMConsidering it hit $4.49 in April it sure has fallen out of favour eh

Yeah looking at the trend, you have to ask, is this company worth half what it was mere months ago?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: lorraina on Sep 01, 2022, 04:51 PM
Basic eps 10cents.
share price $1.56
PE ratio 15.6
Growth ?
Dividend nil.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: kiwi2007 on Sep 01, 2022, 06:34 PM
"... Therefore, the Group anticipates its earnings growth to flatten in FY23 as a result...."

Perhaps honesty isn't always the best policy?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Left Field on Sep 02, 2022, 10:24 AM
As well as Loraina's post highlighting the PE erosion (down from 66 to 15,)  around 14 Mill shares traded in last 2 days indicates a big selldown of shares recently out of escrow...... a 'perfect storm' that should have been managed better.

Mind you, some brave souls are buying.

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Sep 02, 2022, 10:27 AM
Its the usual story when a roll up business model grinds to a halt.  The share price plummets as the company is no longer priced for perpetual growth.  Plus at some point all these roll up companies are going to have to write down the value of those acquisitions they made at peak price stupidity - those intangible assets dont really exist and are currently being carried far in excess of current market value.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Crackity on Sep 02, 2022, 10:31 AM
Quote from: KW on Sep 02, 2022, 10:27 AMIts the usual story when a roll up business model grinds to a halt.  The share price plummets as the company is no longer priced for perpetual growth.  Plus at some point all these roll up companies are going to have to write down the value of those acquisitions they made at peak price stupidity - those intangible assets dont really exist and are currently being carried far in excess of current market value.

And that's before you get to straight out fraud like Intueri......
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Left Field on Sep 02, 2022, 01:57 PM
House of cards..... companies acquired for DGL shares in lieu of cash will be hurting.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Sep 02, 2022, 01:58 PM
Quote from: Crackity on Sep 02, 2022, 10:31 AMAnd that's before you get to straight out fraud like Intueri......

Is that related to DGL?  One of their subsidiaries?  I can't find anything on that.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Sep 02, 2022, 03:49 PM
If they can't grow earnings, they can't keep borrowing money.  If they can't keep borrowing money they cant keep buying companies.  If they cant keep buying companies, they cant sustain the high p/e attributable to a growth company.  So the jig is up - just another company priced for perfection on a high p/e being rerated to reflect reality. 
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Hectorplains on Sep 02, 2022, 04:27 PM
Quote from: arekaywhy on Sep 02, 2022, 01:58 PMIs that related to DGL?  One of their subsidiaries?  I can't find anything on that.

I think the reference is only to a possible nth point in this particular dance. 
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Basil on Sep 02, 2022, 04:46 PM
Quote from: KW on Sep 02, 2022, 03:49 PMIf they can't grow earnings, they can't keep borrowing money.  If they can't keep borrowing money they cant keep buying companies.  If they cant keep buying companies, they cant sustain the high p/e attributable to a growth company.  So the jig is up - just another company priced for perfection on a high p/e being rerated to reflect reality. 

No growth companies should really be on high single digit metrics so there could be more room for downside here.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Sep 05, 2022, 11:10 AM
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/dgl-group-ceo-defiant-after-market-rout-20220902-p5beup

But one hedge fund that did not have a short position heading into the profit result described it as "all the worst parts of the Bible; a result that showed they were over-earning, soft guidance and horrific cash flow".

"Stories such as DGL are self-reinforcing until they're not," the trader said. "It works like this; a high share price means cheap equity means more acquisitions means a high share price. Unfortunately, this also works in reverse.

"The magnitude of the share price falls this week means the roll up story is over."
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Basil on Sep 05, 2022, 02:08 PM
CEO Defiant... (I wish I could say I was surprised LOL) 
Sure the whole clevage comment thing regarding Nadia Lim was both completely inappropriate and blown up out of all reasonable proportion BUT the arrogant way he swiftly went about giving the bird to investors on the NZX and delisting the company here showed his true character and gave investors all the insight I feel they really need into his arrogant approach.  I believe everyone needs checks and balances and its clear he hasn't got any. 

I note it was floated at N.Z$1 in May last year on 24 times earnings.
If I was into shorting stocks I would short this on the basis it deserves to go back to about that level or possibly even lower.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Sep 05, 2022, 02:36 PM
Simon bought $500k worth of shares on market last Friday

See - the share are cheap

Always good sign when insiders buy

Skin in the game and all that
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Sep 05, 2022, 02:39 PM
Quote from: Basil on Sep 05, 2022, 02:08 PMCEO Defiant... (I wish I could say I was surprised LOL) 
Sure the whole clevage comment thing regarding Nadia Lim was both completely inappropriate and blown up out of all reasonable proportion BUT the arrogant way he swiftly went about giving the bird to investors on the NZX and delisting the company here showed his true character and gave investors all the insight I feel they really need into his arrogant approach.  I believe everyone needs checks and balances and its clear he hasn't got any. 

I note it was floated at N.Z$1 in May last year on 24 times earnings.
If I was into shorting stocks I would short this on the basis it deserves to go back to about that level or possibly even lower.

"Analysts at Blue Ocean Equities have a $2.70 price target and said after the market cap slide that there might be an "urge for management to retreat in silence back to operational matters".

"Our suggestion is to resist that urge and engage constructively with investors," the analysts said. "The market likes consistency, transparency and delivering on promises."

When you have to make the point via the AFR because management won't take your calls LOL
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Basil on Sep 05, 2022, 03:25 PM
LOL - Maybe he should just do the decent thing and give investors their money back from the IPO and take ownership back.  Oh wait, hang on a minute...that would require him to be a decent person LOL
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Sep 05, 2022, 09:49 PM
Interesting to see their annual report:
https://www.dglinvestors.com/DownloadFile.axd?file=/Report/ComNews/20220902/02563490.pdf
{warning: auto downloads for some reason)

A couple of things:
 1) the $54m debit in reserves titled "Merger Acquisition Reserve".  It must have been a  good party! That will bite at some point in the future.

 2) The statement that they do not intend paying dividends....under a dividend valuation model that gives the company a valuation of zero.  They likely have insufficient imputation/franking credits so there is no point paying a dividend anyway.
Quote"Per our existing policy, we have not declared a dividend for the 2022 financial year. Our current dividend policy is to reinvest all cashflows into growing the business."

 3) There were 8 acquisitions in FY22 and another 6 have been announced post balance date.  That is hard going.  Is someone addicted to "making deals"?  This has the effect of adding shares which makes EPS growth a bit harder.  I also have no idea what forward EPS will be without investing a lot of time .... for what?

 4) I said this on another forum: "At a forward PE of 24.6 this is a slow burn unless they can come up with some meaty acquisitions". This was based on an issue price of A$1.  Current price is A$1.48. DGL issued 22m shares last year for acquisitions, and total shares on issue at year end was 279m - so dilution was <10% and it seems the acquisitions are relatively minor compared to the entire entity.

SP is currently in freefall plus Simon Henry has his issues as others have noted.  This is on my watchlist and I'm curious to see how low it goes and what other acquisitions they come up.  As KW touched on, the aggregation strategy is great...while it works.

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: kiwi2007 on Sep 05, 2022, 09:50 PM
Happy to pick a few up at $1.50 - let the kiwi saver and other funds take their moral stance (with someone elses money of course lol).
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: lorraina on Sep 06, 2022, 07:41 AM
DGL's current PE ratio is 14.85 based on eps of 10 cents per share.
Market Screener have their 2023 eps rising to 12 cents per share,a 20% increase.
Therefore their PEG [PE divided by Grrowth ] is well under one at .7175.
Sort of interesting.?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Sep 06, 2022, 04:38 PM
Have had this on my watch list for a while. At current price looks good buying to me.  All going well some decent upside once the dust settles. CEO needs to choose his words carefully.

Have taken a position today.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Fiordland Moose on Sep 06, 2022, 05:00 PM
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 06, 2022, 07:41 AMDGL's current PE ratio is 14.85 based on eps of 10 cents per share.
Market Screener have their 2023 eps rising to 12 cents per share,a 20% increase.
Therefore their PEG [PE divided by Grrowth ] is well under one at .7175.
Sort of interesting.?

I dunno.

I think as I age (and hopefully mature a little bit) I am increasingly focused on high quality companies and high conviction ideas. Ones that I understand and appreciate the way they operate, and don't get overly surprised by.  My core listed equities portfolio is built on that basis, but I do reserve around 20% for emerging or relatively more speculative opportunities, which I'd put DGL into.  I suppose I see some caution signs at DGL...it's a roll up, over earnt possibly this last year, simon henry himself, depends a bit on future acquisitions per KW, poor cashflow, some lingering questions around opening balance sheets and margins, etc. Could well settle and this is a good buying opportunity, especially if with the benifit of time and a proven track record show it has some stable/very quasi storage infrastructure capabilities (IE in the same way that bulk liquid storage and terminals went from trading at 5x EBITDA to being re rerated to near infrastructure multiples over the last 20 years, or allied healthcare being re rated to near healthcare multiples) but I am increasingly trying not to catch every fish, not worry about the small but fast ones that get away, and focus on and take satisfaction in catching the handful I run at. 
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Sep 06, 2022, 05:12 PM
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Sep 06, 2022, 05:00 PMI dunno.

I think as I age (and hopefully mature a little bit) I am increasingly focused on high quality companies and high conviction ideas. Ones that I understand and appreciate the way they operate, and don't get overly surprised by.  My core listed equities portfolio is built on that basis, but I do reserve around 20% for emerging or relatively more speculative opportunities, which I'd put DGL into.  I suppose I see some caution signs at DGL...it's a roll up, over earnt possibly this last year, simon henry himself, depends a bit on future acquisitions per KW, etc. Could well settle and this is a good buying opportunity, especially if with the benifit of time and a proven track record show it has some stable/very quasi storage infrastructure capabilities (IE in the same way that bulk liquid storage and terminals went from trading at 5x EBITDA to being re rerated to near infrastructure multiples over the last 20 years, or allied healthcare being re rated to near healthcare multiples) but I am increasingly trying not to catch every fish, not worry about the small but fast ones that get away, and focus on and take satisfaction in catching the handful I run at. 

I agree this is highly speculative and I would not recommend to anyone unless there prepared to loose the lot.  Part of my car crash/punting portfolio.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Sep 07, 2022, 12:02 AM
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Sep 06, 2022, 05:00 PMit has some stable/very quasi storage infrastructure capabilities (IE in the same way that bulk liquid storage and terminals went from trading at 5x EBITDA to being re rerated to near infrastructure multiples over the last 20 years, or allied healthcare being re rated to near healthcare multiples) 
I think you might be getting to the heart of it.  Last year 30% of profits were derived from property revaluations, this year its 50%.  Is DGL a chemicals business or a property holding company? It would appear that Henry is doing the multiple rerating himself instead of waiting for the market, and the rollup is of property and not businesses.  Which brings one to ask "on what basis are these revaluations being made?".  There are substantial remediation costs associated with land used for heavy chemicals, they shouldnt be valued the same as land used for non-chemical purposes.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Sep 07, 2022, 02:09 PM
Looks like Mr Henry had a lazy half mil to throw back into the company

Was this to halt the drop?

Was this to make everyone think every thing is fine just fine, "look at the directors putting skin in the game"?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Sep 08, 2022, 07:15 AM
Analyst reports are out. Average of 3 is A$3.13
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Gerald on Sep 08, 2022, 01:06 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 08, 2022, 07:15 AMAnalyst reports are out. Average of 3 is A$3.13

Sorry I do not get why people still follow things that have been proven time and again to have no relationship to returns. If you follow the recommendations of almost all analysts, you will underperform.

You will have better odds counting the seagulls or looking in some entrails.

I have personally found analyst reports just to be an easy coping mechanism to justify holding onto a losing position.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Sep 08, 2022, 01:45 PM
I looked at some entrails recently...didn't help
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Recaster on Sep 08, 2022, 07:41 PM
Hi,just introducing myself as just joined. First post.

A member here asked me to post my analysis of DGL Group here which I had posted to another forum.

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-analysis-dgl-group-dglasx

Hope it's of interest.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Sep 11, 2022, 09:04 AM
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/09/09/germany-adblue-yara-intl
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Sep 13, 2022, 07:29 PM
https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/switzer-tv/why-are-copper-nickel-and-lithium-stocks-on-the-rise-3-growth-companies-dgl-ppe-smp/
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Sep 14, 2022, 07:27 AM
The DGL part starts at 32:32. An interesting perspective on stock holdings.

Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 13, 2022, 07:29 PMhttps://switzer.com.au/the-experts/switzer-tv/why-are-copper-nickel-and-lithium-stocks-on-the-rise-3-growth-companies-dgl-ppe-smp/
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Sep 14, 2022, 10:33 AM
certainly different to the wokesters over this side of the pond that's for sure

Small increase to my holding, on the basis that it doesn't look as bad as I thought it did a few days ago.  Still only a minor/morbid interest holding for me though
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Nov 15, 2022, 03:26 PM
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old...091850000&ppv= Market seems happy with outlook number.... $70-72 million EBITDA
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Nov 15, 2022, 05:35 PM
Oversold. Market like it.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Nov 15, 2022, 08:17 PM
Thought this was good

https://www.bayleycapital.com/dangerous-goods-logistics-a-chance-to-monopolise-a-40b-industry/

Bayley capital said today fair value $3.50 off 15 multiple on FY23 EBITDA $70m
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Dec 23, 2022, 09:30 AM
One of Bell Potters top picks for 2023

We continue to remain constructive
on the vertical that DGL Group (DGL) is developing across the back end chemicals lifecycle – which includes manufacturing, logistics and recycling – as we think in terms of breadth, DGL is unrivalled by any Trans-Tasman competitor.
In our view, improved earnings visibility and FY23e cash flow targets provided by management at the company AGM are both potential re-rate catalysts
for DGL, with the current pull-back in share price an opportunity for investors to buy a founder-led business that has a potential multi-year growth horizon through industry consolidation. DGL
is currently priced on a forward EV/ EBITDA of ~9x with >$150m in debt headroom and property recycling optionality for further acquisitions.
Buy, Price Target $2.25

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18T_iZ5zWF2_j8xbHbluaVmiK5uaovawm/view?usp=drivesdk

7
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Jan 19, 2023, 09:59 PM
Another acquisition today. Looks like 2023 isn't going to slow DGl down. Purchased with cash which I like.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: lorraina on Jan 20, 2023, 10:11 AM
The acquisition is expected to be immediately EPS
accretive, pre-synergies.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 20, 2023, 10:23 AM
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 20, 2023, 10:11 AMThe acquisition is expected to be immediately EPS
accretive, pre-synergies.

You'd hope it would be eps accretive

No new shares

Maybe a little more interest on increased borrowings .... if acquisition doesn't generate enough profit to cover that interest cost they really have stuffed up eh

Sounds good though that EPS accretive doesn't it when all it means they are going to make a few more bucks
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: lorraina on Jan 20, 2023, 10:26 AM
This acquisition will not only provide DGL with an additional 100 trucks and trailers, thereby
substantially increasing the company's fleet, but it also allows for the utilisation of
Nightingale's strong national transport capability as a collection network for the
backloading of lead and other recyclable materials to DGL's other facilities. Furthermore,
it opens the door for DGL to manufacture and deliver chemicals to Nightingale's existing
customer base.
"The acquisition of Nightingale expands our national logistics reach, allowing us to provide
true business-to-business scale and capacity while enhancing DGL's offering to target
industries," said Simon Henry, Founder and CEO of DGL.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Jan 20, 2023, 12:32 PM
$70-72 EBITDA for the year. Last year depreciation was $17m (this year probably higher with more acquisitions?), finance costs $2.1m (this year higher with more borrowings/higher rates), and tax was $14m (which will vary). Using last years figures comes to $37.9m net.

Last year net was $28m, so probably will be something similar this year. Roughly 10cps earnings, or a PE of 15 (or 14.5 as dropped this morning to $1.45).

Not too exciting but more exciting than MFB!  :o
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 07, 2023, 03:02 PM
Share price encouraging. Nothing new that I'm aware of.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Feb 07, 2023, 04:58 PM
Yeh it did this a couple months back, then dropped back... not getting to excited at this point!
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Feb 10, 2023, 11:23 AM
A couple of big orders on the buy side... could be a good end to the week!
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 28, 2023, 06:24 PM
NPAT of $10.4million(+22%versuspcp)


:) UPDATED FY23 GUIDANCE*
Original AGM EBITDA guidance
$70.0 - $72.0 million
EBITDA impact of recent acquisitions1
~$1.5 million
    Updated underlying EBITDA in the range of
$71.5 - $73.5 million
Earnings expected to be skewed towards second half
~40% H1 / ~60% H2

I think a good result as expected
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Mar 01, 2023, 10:52 AM
It's pretty good reading! Be interesting to see how market reactes...
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Mar 12, 2023, 03:40 PM
This has turned out to be a great punt, so far.  Good to see Henry buying another $100k of shares.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Apr 06, 2023, 08:08 PM
He's been shopping again!
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: kiwi2007 on Apr 07, 2023, 10:51 AM
Acquisition of Triox Boosts DGL's agriculture market and chemical manufacturing
capabilities.
� DGL Group Limited acquires 100% of Triox Pty Ltd ("Triox") a chemical toll manufacturing
company in agriculture and pest control.
� The acquisition price of $5.5 million will be funded by cash, with DGL's net debt position
remaining conservative.
� Triox is an Australian owned company supplying the agriculture and pest control markets
since 1995, with vast experience in chemicals, manufacturing, packaging, and retail.
� DGL group see this as a long-term strategic acquisition that provides DGL with a platform of
further growth into the agricultural sector.
� Triox has strategic short- and long-term growth strategies in place that will be accelerated
with the DGL acquisition.
� DGL see an extensive opportunity in geographic expansion for Triox utilising DGLs extensive
network and customer base allowing for a smooth integration.
� Existing Triox sites and assets will allow for DGL to utilise capabilities and capacity in
supporting enhanced efficient service offerings.
� The transaction is subject to limited conditions precedent and expected to be completed on
1 June 2023.
DGL (ASX: DGL) today announces it has entered into an agreement to acquire Triox, a
manufacturer and supplier of pesticides for agricultural and home garden uses.
The acquisition price of $5.5 million represents 4.6 x EBITDA. The acquisition will be funded
by cash, with DGL's net debt position remaining conservative.
DGL's Executive Director and General Manager Robert Sushames said: "Acquisition of Triox
is the strategic next step in DGL's expansion within the chemical manufacturing, agricultural
and home and gardening markets. DGL have been successful in organic growth and required
further capacity that Triox will enable us to utilise effectively.
We see an ability to not only utilise Triox existing sites, locations and assets for further
manufacturing capability but importantly opportunities to use our customer base and
expertise in accelerating Triox's strategic plans in the niche sector.
Triox have been successful in market penetration and DGL will be able to assist in
acceleration of their short- and long-term strategic goals in the market including launching
premium products".
 
DGL have been successfully offering industry leading capabilities in contracted manufacture
of products and see Triox being able to further grow its service offering and expand its
customer base.
About Triox
Triox is a manufacturer and supplier of pest control products with over 25 years' experience in the
agriculture and home and garden sectors in Australia and New Zealand. Triox provides to the market
expertly formulated, tested and proven high quality products and provides toll manufacturing
services ranging from liquids to granular, powder and pelletised products.
Triox's growth strategy involves a combination of short-term and longer-term initiatives that focus
on expanding market share, geographic footprint, and factory throughput capacity.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on May 15, 2023, 05:31 PM
Hadn't looked for a while but saw share price in 120s

Was over 4 bucks not that long ago

What's going on ...or gone on?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on May 15, 2023, 07:11 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on May 15, 2023, 05:31 PMWhat's going on ...or gone on?

If the financials can be maintained or improved, it's a good buying opportunity.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on May 30, 2023, 02:39 PM
Certainly looks like a good buying opportunity.

Given their place servicing multiple areas of the economy now, and the likelihood that the regulatory environment around chemicals and chemical waste will always ratchet higher, they are placed well to make some coin.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on May 31, 2023, 05:24 PM
Quote from: arekaywhy on May 30, 2023, 02:39 PMCertainly looks like a good buying opportunity.

Given their place servicing multiple areas of the economy now, and the likelihood that the regulatory environment around chemicals and chemical waste will always ratchet higher, they are placed well to make some coin.

I agree and have added more today.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jun 11, 2023, 01:55 PM
Jeez....BP target of $2.16 if reached is 85% gain from current price ...wow

I note one broker has a $2.85 target .....that's two wows
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jun 13, 2023, 02:46 PM
Chemicals business Redox has ruled off its institutional priority bookbuild at 13.75-times earnings for the 2024 financial year, which would give it a $1.3 billion market capitalisation.

Based on 13.75. X DGL earnings FY23F $30m NPAT =$412m

Current DGL market cap 284.9m shares x $1.15=$327m
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jun 13, 2023, 04:22 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Jun 13, 2023, 02:46 PMChemicals business Redox has ruled off its institutional priority bookbuild at 13.75-times earnings for the 2024 financial year, which would give it a $1.3 billion market capitalisation.

Based on 13.75. X DGL earnings FY23F $30m NPAT =$412m

Current DGL market cap 284.9m shares x $1.15=$327m

Always interesting exercise in comparing multiples. ...pity the world is unfair and all things aren't equal eh

What multiple was DGL trading at once?

But in saying that DGL seems to be getting cheaper by the day ...bargain basement price yet?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Jun 15, 2023, 11:32 AM
Quote from: Shareguy on Jun 13, 2023, 02:46 PMChemicals business Redox has ruled off its institutional priority bookbuild at 13.75-times earnings for the 2024 financial year, which would give it a $1.3 billion market capitalisation.

Based on 13.75. X DGL earnings FY23F $30m NPAT =$412m

Current DGL market cap 284.9m shares x $1.15=$327m

Need to deduct off DGL "earnings" from property revaluations to see what the underlying operational business is worth.  
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Jun 15, 2023, 11:38 AM
Profit downgrade today.  Looks like property revals won't save them this time.

DGL Group Limited (DGL Group or The Company) (ASX: DGL) provides the following trading update and guidance for FY23. The Company previously reported forecast underlying EBITDA for FY23 to be in the range of $71.5 – $73.5million and now revises this estimate to $64 - $66million. 

DGL Group has met its revenue forecast to date, with FY23 revenue expected to exceed $450million. However, cost increases inside our operations have eroded margins, particularly within the Environmental division and is the main driver of the revised guidance. 
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jun 15, 2023, 01:23 PM
Quite a big downgrade as well

Share price down 18% in early trading to under a buck.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jun 15, 2023, 01:46 PM
Taken them long enough to come out with the bad news .....end of year weeks away. Damage to margins just didn't happen overnight

First half sales and ebitda up on pcp ..second half sales up but ebitda down heaps on

Full year sales up about $100m on pcp but ebitda about the same.

From all the positive rhetoric from the company over the last year or so you'd think they would doing much better than this ...could say full year a bit of a disaster.

They have a credibility problem now.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Stoploss on Jun 15, 2023, 01:49 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 15, 2023, 01:46 PMTaken them long enough to come out with the bad news .....end of year weeks away. Damage to margins just didn't happen overnight

First half sales and ebitda up on pcp ..second half sales up but ebitda down heaps on

Full year sales up about $100m on pcp but ebitda about the same.

From all the positive rhetoric from the company over the last year or so you'd think they would doing much better than this ...could say full year a bit of a disaster.

They have a credibility problem now.
I think he has had that "credibility problem" for quite some time now .....
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jun 15, 2023, 02:01 PM
When F22 result was announced last August they came out and said "......, the Group anticipates its earnings growth to flatten in FY23"

Share price collapsed from $2.80 to about $1.40 on that news but they then came out and said the market misunderstood them and came out with some guidances showing growth

F23 is going to be flat ....maybe even declining profits .....so he was right back last August.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Jun 15, 2023, 02:18 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 15, 2023, 01:46 PMTaken them long enough to come out with the bad news .....end of year weeks away. Damage to margins just didn't happen overnight

First half sales and ebitda up on pcp ..second half sales up but ebitda down heaps on

Full year sales up about $100m on pcp but ebitda about the same.

From all the positive rhetoric from the company over the last year or so you'd think they would doing much better than this ...could say full year a bit of a disaster.

They have a credibility problem now.

I'm wondering if their auditors are pushing back on those property revaluations.  Either forcing them to revalue downwards, or denying them the ability to revalue them up like previous years to meet targets.  Operational costs dont suddenly appear overnight.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Basil on Jun 15, 2023, 02:27 PM
Maybe he could invite Nadia Lim onto the board  ;D

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Jun 15, 2023, 03:24 PM
Quote from: Basil on Jun 15, 2023, 02:27 PMMaybe he could invite Nadia Lim onto the board  ;D



Probably still rather own DGL than MFB.

But own neither....
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: arekaywhy on Jun 15, 2023, 04:13 PM
temptation is rising
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Jun 15, 2023, 05:44 PM
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Jun 15, 2023, 03:24 PMProbably still rather own DGL than MFB.

But own neither....

If its a choice between two flea bitten dogs, I'll take the cat  ;D
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jun 16, 2023, 08:52 AM
After a nice couple of days in the gulf disappointed to come back to this announcement. So close to year end. Still a lot to like with this company. Growth in top end, cash flow good with reduced inventory.

A small holding at this stage.  Don't see this as major and  Will look to add once I have seen how property revaluations and acquisitions have gone. At least Simon has said no more script to be used in future acquisitions.

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Basil on Jun 16, 2023, 10:50 AM
Quote from: KW on Jun 15, 2023, 05:44 PMIf its a choice between two flea bitten dogs, I'll take the cat  ;D
Saw this in the other place "So since Simon Whimp made his Nadia Lim comment on 3 May 2022, DGL's sp is down 71%." 
I'll take the goat thanks, definitely no cleavage shown in this image lol https://thespinoff.co.nz/pop-culture/17-10-2022/nadias-farm-is-nadia-lim-like-youve-never-seen-her-before   
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Teitei on Jun 17, 2023, 10:51 AM
So here's why the sp is getting slammed and finding little support :

EBITDA

H2 2022 $32.7m
H2 2023 $25.3m (based on trading update of $65m for full year)

Definitely no longer a growth stock and only the second earnings downgrade.

The smart ones got out when Simon Whimp waved the BIG RED FLAG with his uncouth and unhinged Nadia Lim comments.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jun 17, 2023, 01:17 PM

[/quote]
Quote from: Teitei on Jun 17, 2023, 10:51 AMSo here's why the sp is getting slammed and finding little support :

EBITDA

H2 2022 $32.7m
H2 2023 $25.3m (based on trading update of $65m for full year)

Definitely no longer a growth stock and only the second earnings downgrade.

The smart ones got out when Simon Whimp waved the BIG RED FLAG with his uncouth and unhinged Nadia Lim comments.

Pretty bad 2nd half eh teitei ...ebitda down about 25%

Full year picture pretty telling ........sales up about $100m on prior year but ebitda about the same .......that's not good eh. (Prob means NPAT down on last year)

More acquisitions to help F24 year ......hope it's not going to be a year with sales upnheaps and less profit

Irrespective of person Henry does seem to piss the market off quite regularly
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Jun 17, 2023, 01:30 PM
EBITDA margin f22 was ~18% ......F23 its going to be ~14%

Big drop .....sometimes seen as a sign of bad management not being on top of things

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jun 30, 2023, 04:31 AM
Have been adding and now at top end of what I am comfortable at for a punt.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jul 19, 2023, 03:18 AM
What a difference a month makes. Back over a dollar.

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DGL)) as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy (1) -

Canaccord Genuity was disappointed with the update from DGL Group as it pointed to materially lower EBITDA guidance, stemming from higher costs across the business. Still, on the positive side, strong demand continues for services and there is robust cash conversion.

FY23 EBITDA guidance was revised down -10% which implies broadly flat earnings year-on-year. The broker turns its attention to FY24 with a number of influences on its modelling, including the impact of the higher costs in the second half and the incremental contribution from FY23 acquisitions.

While investors may prefer to wait for a more detailed outlook at the August results Canaccord Genuity believes the shares offer value at the current rating, which is downgraded to Speculative Buy from Buy. Target is reduced to $1.55 from $2.85.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.74
If DGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 39.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: CalBe55 on Jul 19, 2023, 06:24 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Jul 19, 2023, 03:18 AMWhat a difference a month makes. Back over a dollar.

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DGL)) as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy (1) -

Canaccord Genuity was disappointed with the update from DGL Group as it pointed to materially lower EBITDA guidance, stemming from higher costs across the business. Still, on the positive side, strong demand continues for services and there is robust cash conversion.

FY23 EBITDA guidance was revised down -10% which implies broadly flat earnings year-on-year. The broker turns its attention to FY24 with a number of influences on its modelling, including the impact of the higher costs in the second half and the incremental contribution from FY23 acquisitions.

While investors may prefer to wait for a more detailed outlook at the August results Canaccord Genuity believes the shares offer value at the current rating, which is downgraded to Speculative Buy from Buy. Target is reduced to $1.55 from $2.85.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.74
If DGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 39.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.


Let me ask you, why did the price fall so much? Is there something wrong with the company? Is there a risk that the fall will continue and the price will not rise in the near future?
Hi all.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jul 20, 2023, 01:12 PM
Welcome to stock talk.

My understanding is the price fell due to not meeting market expectations with a profit downgrade. Also making inappropriate comments regarding a person involved with the disaster ipo of MY Food Bag has not helped.

I have read all that is available and think the business has a reasonable moat and is able to pass on costs. Also find the high insiders stock holding attractive.

Watch some of the interviews on the ceo. He is very passionate.

A roll up business model that has the market concerned on the multiples paid and what is the future value.

In my opinion it's a punt and investors could get very burnt with this one. Also has decent upside potential, which is what interests me.



Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: CalBe55 on Jul 25, 2023, 11:43 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Jul 20, 2023, 01:12 PMWelcome to stock talk.

My understanding is the price fell due to not meeting market expectations with a profit downgrade. Also making inappropriate comments regarding a person involved with the disaster ipo of MY Food Bag has not helped.

I have read all that is available and think the business has a reasonable moat and is able to pass on costs. Also find the high insiders stock holding attractive.

Watch some of the interviews on the ceo. He is very passionate.

A roll up business model that has the market concerned on the multiples paid and what is the future value.

In my opinion it's a punt and investors could get very burnt with this one. Also has decent upside potential, which is what interests me.


Thank you. Do you think the price will fall further or can we expect a rise now?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Aug 14, 2023, 07:28 PM
Share buyback announced of up to 10% of issued shares, from 30 August 2023 for 1 year.
Source (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSTYM4Q2%2BzBeZpPB1ke92GA%3D%3D)
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Aug 22, 2023, 02:47 PM
Results this coming Monday 28/8. 

Have continued to add.  Hope my hunch is correct.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Aug 28, 2023, 01:18 PM
Limited property revaluations this year.  What a difference that makes.

Screenshot 2023-08-28 131436.png
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Aug 28, 2023, 02:37 PM
Some pretty dodgy stuff in the "Highlights" portion of the announcement .....esp ebitda growth etc
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Aug 28, 2023, 02:43 PM
NBR points out that the only female Director has resigned

And reminded us that independent review of DGL's culture last year, sparked following founder and chief executive Simon Henry's inappropriate comments about Nadia Lim in an interview with NBR, recommended "that more gender diversity be introduced into senior management and leadership positions".
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Aug 29, 2023, 05:40 PM
Not as bad as some were expecting. Costs and interest rates taking its toll. At least Simon has said "no more shares as payment for future acquisitions" Debt creeping up. Revaluations not saving the day this time. 2024 looking ok so far.  Needs to bed in all the newly acquired businesses and raise prices.

Buy back starts on the 30/8. Will be interesting given their debt level and interest rates.

Disc: hold for me and won't be adding
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Nov 11, 2023, 12:14 AM
CEO Simon Henry talked about DGL recently with an analyst.  Interesting questions and answers.


Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Nov 11, 2023, 08:23 AM
Thanks for posting Ferg. Mike at Pie funds says small caps are on sale. This is one of them in my opinion
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Hectorplains on Nov 11, 2023, 10:19 AM
Quote from: Shareguy on Nov 11, 2023, 08:23 AMThanks for posting Ferg. Mike at Pie funds says small caps are on sale. This is one of them in my opinion
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 11, 2023, 12:14 AMCEO Simon Henry talked about DGL recently with an analyst.  Interesting questions and answers.


AGM is Tues.  He is freshingly unscripted but his positivity papers over some of the cracks.


Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Nov 11, 2023, 03:57 PM
Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 11, 2023, 10:19 AMHe is freshingly unscripted but his positivity papers over some of the cracks.

I agree about the positivity.  I get the sense he has had some sort of media training since the "fluff" affair. In a previous video he came across as very driven and focussed, and whilst that has not disappeared, IMO he now comes across as genuinely likeable.

Which cracks do you refer to?  He talks through the depressed share price and the impact thereof.  IMO it was interesting hear him discussing the M&A techniques and the differing methods for running differing acquisitions.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Hectorplains on Nov 11, 2023, 05:49 PM
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 11, 2023, 03:57 PMWhich cracks do you refer to?  He talks through the depressed share price and the impact thereof.  IMO it was interesting hear him discussing the M&A techniques and the differing methods for running differing acquisitions.

The interview was a bit of patsy really.  The interviewer clearly holds the stock and was throwing down lobs for Henry to whack. 

Three areas straight off that I think were either not well done or are potentially problematic:

He discusses the buy-back at some length - and especially the impact it may have if the share price moves up.  He neglects to mention that the buy back has been done at prices that are well north of where the share price is today.  That may just be bad luck...or it could be that they went too hard and fast at the start of the process?

No mention of addressing margins which is what lead the June downgraded to EBITDA guidance from $71.5-73.5m to $64-66m. A further 3% retreat in EBITDA to $63.6m is the consensus for the full year.  That's not the numbers of a great growth story.

Impacts of $66m bank debt they're now carrying on their books. 

I have a few but won't be adding any more until it's a clearer picture of margins and growth.



Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Nov 12, 2023, 09:26 AM
Thanks for that.

I thought the interviewer let Simon speak and didn't try to talk over him.  Something our media could learn - I want to hear the interviewee, not the interviewer.  Letting him speak without interruption is a good technique; sometimes you can find out more than intended from that method.  But as you say 1 or more topics were glossed over.  Andrew mentioned very early on that he wasn't going to ask questions where the answers were available elsewhere....maybe that had something to do with it?

Fair enough regarding the reduced margins and consequent EBTIDA although as they say "a swallow does not make a summer"...by that I mean even good companies can have a bad year**.  Most companies undergoing excessive growth experience growing pains - whether that be personnel, funding, focus, inventory & debtors etc.  What I have seen in growing businesses is they grow like teenage boys: first out, then up, then out, then up.  Unless it is a unicorn like HLG which has a slowly slowly catch the monkey philosophy of growth via retained earnings, but I digress.

In other words investment in infrastructure and capacity can result in cost bloat which takes time to deliver additional profits.  Plus not all (or many?) financial trends are linear as much as we would like them to be.  Analysts love to connect dots with lines...I admit I am also guilty of this.  At the risk of stating the obvious, it is what happens next that is important.

{**Also notice the number of companies now reporting 5 years financials so we can look through the latest result that is down due to the Covid sugar hit.  That may apply to some DGL subsidiaries, but could be muddied for the Group due to acquisitions....I haven't checked this in detail.  Sometimes we need to look at a wider context than just last year versus the previous year.}

I haven't done a deep dive on DGL margins but that can be impacted by things like mix of product sales which is not necessarily an indicator of falling volumes of prices.  I will look into that more closely.

A buyback under NTA is a good buyback IMO - hindsight being 20/20 they could have bought better.  Hopefully they learn from that.  I also wonder if some buybacks were timed to soak up vendors shares coming out of escrow.

As an aside I found a couple of malapropisms amusing: issuing 'script' instead of 'scrip' and the word 'agglomerate'...unless they were compiling board papers into a rounded mass or into a jumbled heap....but no matter, we could see what Simon meant.

Disclosure: holding and accumulating on price weaknesses, but not a large position.
Outlook: if Simon can do what he says then great...but it might take a few reporting periods to be re-rated by Mr Market.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jan 08, 2024, 02:56 PM
Talk of adblue shortages again maybe the answer to share price increase.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Jan 08, 2024, 06:42 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 08, 2024, 02:56 PMTalk of adblue shortages again maybe the answer to share price increase.

really?  that's another side effect of the Marsden Pt closure.  Will bolster Winston's plans to reopen it.  
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Jan 08, 2024, 07:39 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 08, 2024, 02:56 PMTalk of adblue shortages again maybe the answer to share price increase.
Thanks for that.  Where did you see this talk?  I had a quick look online and couldn't see anything.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jan 08, 2024, 09:00 PM
Quote from: Ferg on Jan 08, 2024, 07:39 PMThanks for that.  Where did you see this talk?  I had a quick look online and couldn't see anything.

There is discussion on this on hot copper. China looking to curb exports.  Not sure if share price growth has anything to do with this or not. My understanding was that Australia were allowing large mining of Urea to give some surety given the importance to farmers and transport industry.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/china-asks-fertilizer-makers-to-halt-urea-exports-on-price-surge

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Jan 30, 2024, 04:50 PM
Share price slowly creeping up. Bell potter latest note $1.20 out perform.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 07, 2024, 12:27 PM
$1.00 and climbing.

Disc: Largest position on ASX
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Feb 07, 2024, 01:45 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 30, 2024, 04:50 PMShare price slowly creeping up. Bell potter latest note $1.20 out perform.

Noticed that.  It will be interesting to see what it does when it runs into resistance/overhead at $1.16.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 07, 2024, 01:52 PM
Quote from: KW on Feb 07, 2024, 01:45 PMNoticed that.  It will be interesting to see what it does when it runs into resistance/overhead at $1.16.

I see Morgan's have as one of top 7 to perform this reporting season.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Cookie on Feb 07, 2024, 06:30 PM
My one and only asx stock.
Looking forward to the next earnings call.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 26, 2024, 05:02 PM
$1.07 ahead of result tomorrow. Will need to be a good result to support the sp.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Cookie on Feb 26, 2024, 05:17 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 26, 2024, 05:02 PM$1.07 ahead of result tomorrow. Will need to be a good result to support the sp.

I will be happy if after tax earnings be around the late 20s. I think the first few years at least earnings will be lumpy. I will be interested in the narrative/execution.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Cookie on Feb 27, 2024, 12:09 PM
What a shocker.

The SP is going to be hit pretty today and days after.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Feb 27, 2024, 12:56 PM
Jeez share price down more than 40%
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Cookie on Feb 27, 2024, 01:57 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 27, 2024, 12:56 PMJeez share price down more than 40%

Yep it aint pretty.

The employee expense keeps ballooning.
i missed the first half of the earnings call. I wondered if he mentioned anything.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 27, 2024, 02:21 PM
Well what a shocker. In my opinion a big overreaction so doubled my shareholding. Will look to double again once I have all the research notes tomorrow-
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Feb 27, 2024, 02:39 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 27, 2024, 02:21 PMWell what a shocker. In my opinion a big overreaction so doubled my shareholding. Will look to double again once I have all the research notes tomorrow-

You'd think you couldn't go wrong buying at around current 60 cents.

Your average pretty low now?

Well done
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 27, 2024, 03:04 PM
Yes. I can't see how it could go wrong. But then again it can and it might. The risk you take ah

Was originally just a punt now one of my larger holdings.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Feb 27, 2024, 03:17 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 27, 2024, 03:04 PMYes. I can't see how it could go wrong. But then again it can and it might. The risk you take ah

Was originally just a punt now one of my larger holdings.

And if brokers are reasonably bullish you going to get more.

I've never been too enthused to buy but keep watching ....one day maybe

Long way from that $4 high ...might get back there
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Feb 27, 2024, 04:57 PM
Nadia Lim should send Simon Henry a Bargain Box  ;D
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Feb 27, 2024, 05:01 PM
Quote from: KW on Feb 27, 2024, 04:57 PMNadia Lim should send Simon Henry a Bargain Box  ;D

He probably can't afford it!!  ;D
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Cookie on Feb 27, 2024, 11:12 PM
I think I underestimated the wage cost given the that logistics plays a greater role.
The lower income was abit of a shock.







Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Feb 28, 2024, 08:22 AM
I still have a few of these... bugger it! Not surprised by the soft result when compared to others in the industry. Looks like I'm going to have these for a while yet!! With share price being high before results shows there's no leaks in that ship!
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 28, 2024, 03:33 PM
Good to see a green screen today. Appeared good buying under $.60

Net asset backing at Dec23 $1.19

NTA $.71

Early days but

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 29, 2024, 11:02 AM
Link to webcast

https://www.dglinvestors.com/investor-centre/?page=Presentations-and-webcasts
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 29, 2024, 11:04 AM
Bell Potters latest

1H24 result overview
DGL reported 1H24 underlying EBITDA -8% below our expectations at $30.4m (+7% YOY vs. BPe $32.9m). Group revenue of $217.0m was flat YOY and compares to BPe $240.0m. At segment EBITDA level Manufacturing and Warehousing divisions were in line with BPe, however benefitted from $12.6m of acquisitions, whilst capex stepped up materially to $22.7m. E-Solutions was a miss ($4.7m) versus our forecast ($6.5m) with raw material availability challenges resulting in a decline in volumes (we believe in 2Q24). Underlying NPAT missed vs. BPe at $7.6m (vs. BPe $10.5m) due to higher- than-expected D&A in addition to the factors above.
Cashflow: 1H24 lease adjusted OCF of $10.7m compares to inflows of $16.3m in 1H23 and $45.9m in FY23. 1H24 gross OCF conversion of 89% was in line with the notional 80-90% target. Core net debt rose to $117.2m (vs. FY23 $91.0m).
Outlook: FY24e revenue (466.0m) and EBITDA ($64.1m) are now expected to be broadly in line with FY23 (BPe prev. $510.7m and $70.0m). Commentary: (1) FY24 viewed as a "transition" year with DGL now in the late stages of supply disruptions; (2) expecting strong 2H24 bias driven by ag-chem order book, higher battery recycling/AdBlue volumes and stabilising raw material prices; (3) liquid waste plant on schedule for Jul'24; (4) capex to be managed in 2H24 (~$5m has been flagged).
Investment view: Maintain Buy rating
EBITDA downgrades of 9-10% leverage into NPAT declines of c.25% FY24-26e as we extrapolate D&A from new acquisitions and raise interest costs due to higher net debt.
Whilst the extent of operational decline in 1H24 was unanticipated, DGL's top-line result in parts of the business such as Manufacturing would appear consistent with peers (RDX 1H24 crop protection -22.9%). We continue to see seasonal tailwinds emerging for DGL, however, impetus now weighs on the group to resume organic growth in 2H24 and from then show a pathway towards the targeted 10%+ p.a. free cash funded growth. Our revised PT considers the higher risks associated with near- term execution and implies a ~25% premium to estimated liquidation value (~$0.60
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 29, 2024, 11:24 AM
Quote from: Crackity on Feb 29, 2024, 11:09 AMAnd 11 months ago from the same shills for context...


DGL Group (ASX: DGL)

Bell Potter has rated DGL a BUY, giving the stock a 12-month price target of $2.15.
This is higher than the previous target of $2.00. Using a close price of $1.80, the new target reflects a total return of 19.4%.

DGL is a specialty chemicals and dangerous business with an interesting backstory. Listing in 2021 at $1.00, the company shot to huge gains in April 2022. However, in September last year, the share price fell nearly 50% in one week.
In short, Bell Potter analysts are bullish on DGL due to the company's impressive 1HFY23 earnings beat. EBITDA was ahead of the broker's expectations at 30% growth YoY.

DGL reported Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) of $29.7m, higher than the broker's expectations for $28.2m.

Analysts also believe DGL's cash position is strong, and the company is paying off its debts faster than analysts predicted.
DGL's debt position exiting 1HFY23 was $79.8m, Bell Potter was expecting a higher $88.3m.

DGL has previously forecasted its FY23 earnings growth to flatten back in September 2022, indicating analysts were caught out by less inflationary impact than forecast by DGL.

The broker noted ongoing seasonal headwinds affecting agricultural chemicals and analysts see room for further upside, especially if DGL boosts its sales portfolio. However, they expect DGL has enough cash to fund an upcoming series of acquisitions.


 8)

Yes a guide only. All research from the experts needs to be taken with grain of salt. The same crowd saying it's only worth $.70. Currently.

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 29, 2024, 12:58 PM
Quote from: Crackity on Feb 29, 2024, 12:32 PMYep - agreed - one more to ponder before you double your money or not
😎

AFR - comment


But one hedge fund that did not have a short position heading into the profit result described it as "all the worst parts of the Bible; a result that showed they were over-earning, soft guidance and horrific cash flow".
"Stories such as DGL are self-reinforcing until they're not," the trader said. "It works like this; a high share price means cheap equity means more acquisitions means a high share price. Unfortunately, this also works in reverse.
"The magnitude of the share price falls this week means the roll up story is over."


Interesting time will tell. Doubled my position again at $.60
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Cookie on Feb 29, 2024, 02:00 PM
Pre earnings I think Bell Potter had them at $1.20.

I think that AFR story was from 2022. Very much a different time, but the question mark has things changed or are different. I think everyone was blindsided by the results, including the analysts.

I have to admit I am disappointed I got my thesis wrong and thought I bought with a reasonable margin of safety (clearly not lol). Personally I think Bell Potter are being abit harsh this time round. The margins are still ok in spite of increased employee costs and depreciation.

Debt is almost covered by current assets. Debt/income coverage ideally should be less.

I looked into the recent acquisition of Allnex NZ(construction products).

He bought at just above book value of inventory($4m). it generates $12m sales p.a
I don't know what the net profit is perhaps $100K-$200K p.a. Not massive in the overall schemes of the things, but how i see it is he gets this income stream in perpetuity for free.  So it gives me an idea how he approaches acquisitions.

The liquid treatment plant should be up and running later this year. I think they incurred cost over-runs on that. But it is what is, and should provide stable earnings.

I am still trying to figure about the company and the industry as a whole.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 29, 2024, 02:14 PM
Quote from: Crackity on Feb 29, 2024, 02:07 PM2 directors ( not Simon ) have purchased on market in the last day according to ASX announcements - that's a plus...

Yes encouraging. But not a lot really. I have gone big on this and hope it's not a bad decision. I can't see much downside at these levels. Only time will tell.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Feb 29, 2024, 02:23 PM
Quote from: Cookie on Feb 29, 2024, 02:00 PMPre earnings I think Bell Potter had them at $1.20.

I think that AFR story was from 2022. Very much a different time, but the question mark has things changed or are different. I think everyone was blindsided by the results, including the analysts.

I have to admit I am disappointed I got my thesis wrong and thought I bought with a reasonable margin of safety (clearly not lol). Personally I think Bell Potter are being abit harsh this time round. The margins are still ok in spite of increased employee costs and depreciation.

Debt is almost covered by current assets. Debt/income coverage ideally should be less.

I looked into the recent acquisition of Allnex NZ(construction products).

He bought at just above book value of inventory($4m). it generates $12m sales p.a
I don't know what the net profit is perhaps $100K-$200K p.a. Not massive in the overall schemes of the things, but how i see it is he gets this income stream in perpetuity for free.  So it gives me an idea how he approaches acquisitions.

The liquid treatment plant should be up and running later this year. I think they incurred cost over-runs on that. But it is what is, and should provide stable earnings.

I am still trying to figure about the company and the industry as a whole.


Anyone who leads a founder started business and still holds over 50 percent gets my attention. I'm a long term holder and think he's on the right track growing the business. I have watched every YouTube video available and love his passion and dedication. In time I'm banking on greatly improved performance and EPS growth. Increased EPS increased SP.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Feb 29, 2024, 04:36 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 29, 2024, 02:23 PMAnyone who leads a founder started business and still holds over 50 percent gets my attention. I'm a long term holder and think he's on the right track growing the business. I have watched every YouTube video available and love his passion and dedication. In time I'm banking on greatly improved performance and EPS growth. Increased EPS increased SP.

Its easy to buy businesses, its a lot harder to run them.  Henry is a property guy, not an operations guy. This is now starting to become apparent.  
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Mar 01, 2024, 09:37 AM
Annualising 1H24 reported EBITDA puts the shares on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5x FY24 which is a 44% discount to listed competitor Redox on 9x.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Mar 01, 2024, 09:50 AM
Latest from Blue Ocean

Today's 40% share price decline on DGL's 1H24 result feels like capitulation and a value opportunity somewhat reminiscent of Toll Holdings in the late 1990's.
 

The company has been suffering from indigestion after having acquired 28 companies in the past three years. The share price reaction might just be the cure.  We spoke with Simon Henry, MD and owner of 54% of the company, after the result. Simon acknowledged that he had gone too hard on acquisitions. He now has eyes on just three potential targets in 2H24 – the smallest number in some time. Additionally, Simon mentioned that 1H24 was a period of planting the seeds for growth in the second half and beyond.  He expects capex of just $5m in 2H24 vs. $21m in 1H24. (NB. Net operating cash flow was $19m in 1H24).

 

The company has had a "rip snorting" start to the second half driven by crop protection which had been a laggard in the first half.  The rally in Elders share price recently is largely attributable to expectations for a good harvest in Australia – which spurs demand for its crop protection products, many of which are formulated by DGL.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Mar 01, 2024, 09:53 AM
Jeez ..imagine if DGL became as big as Toll ...WOW
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: kiwi2007 on Mar 15, 2024, 12:25 PM
Moving from head office from Auckland to Sydney.
CFO resigns
Positive outlook going forward
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02784741-3A638722

Given the price a bump...
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ferg on Mar 15, 2024, 10:48 PM
Normally a CFO resigning is not a good sign.  However, given DGL are shifting head office, and the positive *reference* from Simon, it could be a lifestyle thing of not wanting to move which is understandable.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Mar 16, 2024, 07:27 PM
He wasn't there long... 16 months. It's prob the last paragraph that the market is responding to.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on May 01, 2024, 03:08 PM
Back to bumping around the 60 cents mark

Suppose need to wait for next announcement to see any more action ....one way or other
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on May 02, 2024, 02:15 PM
Redox SP continues its upward trend. Not expecting DGL share price to do much until next reporting. Even then it's going to be 2025 before we see any meaningful gains I reckon.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Jun 05, 2024, 06:44 PM
Shutdown of Qenos has flow on effects for other chemical manufacturers. Possibly DGL too?  Share price hit new low of 55c today

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/thai-chemicals-major-indorama-to-close-sydney-manufacturing-plant-as-a-result-of-qenos-collapse/news-story/40eec3de1eeef5d79e1821a69115cdec?amp

Another major Sydney chemicals maker is set to close as the shockwaves from the collapse of Qenos reverberate through the manufacturing sector.
Thai chemicals major Indorama told workers and customers it will shutter its Botany manufacturing plant at the end of June as a direct result of the Qenos failure, with the decision likely to cost about 110 jobs.
The decision was forced by the announcement that Qenos' new owners, property developer Logos, would permanently shutter the company's nearby manufacturing plant (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/qenos-chinese-owner-had-been-in-talks-over-sale-and-closure-of-the-company-for-at-least-nine-months/news-story/e1512e95dccdb70f29a42b34f54af8ea), customers and staff were told.
"This decision has been necessitated by the recent announcement from our supplier, Qenos, to shut down their Botany production site and stop supplying ethylene, which is a critical component of our production process," she said.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Aug 21, 2024, 12:52 PM
When is the FY out?... will be interesting...
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Aug 21, 2024, 01:32 PM
Quote from: Ricky Bobby on Aug 21, 2024, 12:52 PMWhen is the FY out?... will be interesting...

Last year was 28th of August. Have been adding and is my largest Australian position.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Aug 21, 2024, 04:12 PM
Preforming better than NZX:DGL - they are down 42% of the last year.

These guys are down only 29%......winning!!  ::)
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Aug 31, 2024, 07:20 AM
Results out for FY24. Not bad considering. Acquisitions to stop unless meets certain criteria. Trading on a PE of 10 with NTA of $.74.

Topped up again on Friday.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Sep 04, 2024, 04:49 PM
Is GGL share price heading to a new all time low?
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Sep 04, 2024, 05:03 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 04, 2024, 04:49 PMIs GGL share price heading to a new all time low?

Yes may well do. I'm dollar cost averaging. What can possibly go wrong🤫
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Sep 04, 2024, 06:06 PM
Comparing F24 to F23

Profit margin down from 3.6% of sales to 3.0%
Asset Turnover down from 0.82 to 0.77
Assets to equity up from 1.73 to 1,77

Put all together and ROE fell from 5.2% to 4.1%

Needs to sell more and improve margins
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Sep 22, 2024, 07:18 PM
Nadia's Farm on the TV ......made me catch up on DGL shareprice

Jeez 45 cents

Seems to be ATL

Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Sep 24, 2024, 04:44 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 22, 2024, 07:18 PMNadia's Farm on the TV ......made me catch up on DGL shareprice

Jeez 45 cents

Seems to be ATL



44 ATL so far. I'm picking we are over the worst. Going to review again at agm.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Oct 24, 2024, 05:07 PM
Someone wants in.   I'm in the green at last.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Ricky Bobby on Oct 25, 2024, 06:13 AM
Haha I'm a long way off!
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Oct 25, 2024, 08:17 AM
Don't seem to hear much of old Simon these days.....
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Oct 25, 2024, 05:17 PM
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Oct 25, 2024, 08:17 AMDon't seem to hear much of old Simon these days.....


He is busy working on improving EPS and keeping his eyes on the ball I hope, not on other distractions 😉. Up again today. 10 percent so far.
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Oct 31, 2024, 06:43 PM
Simon has been buying

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/dgl-group-director-increases-shareholding-significantly


Plus this was interesting

https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/asx-briefs/id1741642830
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Shareguy on Dec 16, 2024, 07:31 PM
Well up from low of $.44. Looks like it has legs to run.

You seeing this KW
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Dec 26, 2024, 12:19 PM
Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 16, 2024, 07:31 PMWell up from low of $.44. Looks like it has legs to run.

You seeing this KW

I'm watching it.  I think it has more work to do before you can categorically state its back in an uptrend, I am looking for the price to clear that resistance level of 70c.  There is a lot of overhead, so any small breakout may turn out to be a fakeout. 

Screenshot 2024-12-26 121849.png
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: winner (n) on Feb 28, 2025, 03:46 PM
Results out and market not like

Share price back in the 40s
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Nizzy on Mar 20, 2025, 05:51 PM
Per NZ Herald social pages, Simon just sold his Parnell house for $12.5m and has his large Queenstown place on the market for $20m+.  Apparently downsizing. :)
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Stoploss on Dec 15, 2025, 08:02 PM
Simons brother in a little trouble with the FMA ,'Chance Voight " ......
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: Stoploss on Mar 20, 2026, 06:53 AM
Quote from: Stoploss on Dec 15, 2025, 08:02 PMSimons brother in a little trouble with the FMA ,' Chance Voight " ......
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360953313/head-troubled-firm-used-investor-funds-buy-now-suspended-shares-his-brothers-company
Title: Re: DGL.ASX
Post by: KW on Apr 22, 2026, 10:04 AM
Aaaaand its back!
At 39.5c