StockTalk

Good article on BD today from Cameron Bagrie

The hard landing

The challenge this time round is not the construction cycle itself, but managing costs and project delays, and staffing headaches, all of which eat into working capital.

Construction employment, according to Quarterly Employment Survey, has grown at close to double the rate of the volume of work completed in the past three years.

Construction margins took some hefty knocks during previous downturns, and producer price data from Statistics NZ shows early signs of history repeating.

A major threat to the construction sector is simply a continued push higher in interest rates. The more persistent demand – and the construction sector is showing all the hallmarks of continued strong demand with job ads still rising – the more the Reserve Bank will need to deliver on prospects of the official cash rate heading north of 4%.

Construction jobs on Seek rose 4% in May and 8% in the last three months.

Strong demand means bigger interest rate hits, at which point all bets are off. 

A bust is on offer. 

History shows builders scarper for Australia. Critical capacity is lost and the historical boom and bust playbook for the construction sector rolls on.

The oxymoron

After years of wanting to see more houses built, we are now in the strange position of needing to see bad news in the form of a material drop in building consents and high attrition rate on existing residential consents.

Both are necessary if there's to be any hope of achieving a soft landing, bringing demand back in line with supply.

More "good news" indicating an ongoing house building boom will continue pushing against capacity constraints and will up the ante on the bad news and hard landing endgame

Some booms are followed by busts.  It is difficult to predict.

I've been thinking about this for a while now, and considered a lot of opinion from all parts of the sector. 

It leads me back to looking at gubmint policy.  If they would just leave us alone, stop inflating the money supply, and repealed most of the legislation in place for regulating the sector, then the market will sort itself out.

Residential construction sentiment is down at levels below the GFC and covid crash, quite an incredible crash. Looks like the boom will soon be bust.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/116935/collapse-residential-construction-sentiment-highlights-another-gloomy-anz-business

Quote from: mfd on Jul 29, 2022, 04:00 PMResidential construction sentiment is down at levels below the GFC and covid crash, quite an incredible crash. Looks like the boom will soon be bust.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/116935/collapse-residential-construction-sentiment-highlights-another-gloomy-anz-business

They'll be giving gib board away in a couple of years ....esp when that big new plant comes on stream

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 29, 2022, 04:06 PMThey'll be giving gib board away in a couple of years ....esp when that big new plant comes on stream

ach, totally should have put the kitchen reno on hold

I have just finished building 2x new stand alone townhouses for rentals. Ended up being reasonably ok in terms of costs but renting them out for the right money has been a challenge.

I have one rented now @ $750 a week, should have the other sorted soon. You'd think it would be straight forward, but I'm first time landlord so I don't have anything to compare it to.

https://www.myrent.co.nz/listings/PY398J

Quote from: TGB on Aug 17, 2022, 08:30 AMI have just finished building 2x new stand alone townhouses for rentals. Ended up being reasonably ok in terms of costs but renting them out for the right money has been a challenge.

I have one rented now @ $750 a week, should have the other sorted soon. You'd think it would be straight forward, but I'm first time landlord so I don't have anything to compare it to.

Tenants can only pay so much.  I have learnt over the years that aiming for top dollar often attracts the wrong type of tenant.  Better to have a lower price and attract a greater pool therefore increasing quality.  Good luck

Thanks for that, I did a bit of a review before listing them and got an appraisal from the biggest local firm.
I originally went for $800 but much more interest at $750.

Migrants starting to come in, many applicants have long lead times due to notice periods or moving regions. Those who are immediately available have often stated they are in transitional housing currently and MSD is willing to pay their rent but their income statements show it would leave them with nothing else.

On the boom bust topic, my valuer was saying many local developers here overcooked it during the past 2 years. Buying up land for too much money. Noone one is buying off the plans and many completed units are sitting empty as the rental market for 1/2/3 bed town houses must be completely saturated.

In my experience i have seen way unrealistic rents quoted by real estate firms. I have been in the game for a while and have found there is always plenty of tenants. Finding a good tenant is another storey.

We have not had any real issues in 15 years. Unfortunately with the new rental laws I don't take any risks these days and would rather have the property's empty than take people who don't stack up.  You are right not to entertain people in transitional housing. There are too many terrible storeys out there. It is too hard to get rid of bad tenants these days so you need to pick well.

Yup I agree with you there, would be really nice if they were bringing in rent but we aren't in a rush.

Have a few bites to work through, I'm pretty confident we are at the right price point. Just have to be patient for the right people.

The head of constructiion at Fletcher Building said house prices are stabilising about 10% down from their peak in December as buyers gain more confidence about the path of interest rates.

In a conference call for analysts on the company's results announcement, chief executive Ross Taylor described market sentiment as "a real positive for us".

"People are returning to the market."

Tony's latest

https://tonyalexander.lt.acemlna.com/Prod/link-tracker?redirectUrl=aHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZ3d3cudG9ueWFsZXhhbmRlci5ueiUyRndwLWNvbnRlbnQlMkZ1cGxvYWRzJTJGVG9ueXMtVmlldy0xOC1BdWd1c3QtMjAyMi5wZGY=&sig=GLWrXi3hhFv8aeC6H7ST2gWhZAuo58jeYNz1fkU5FGjq&iat=1660783318&a=%7C%7C611496996%7C%7C&account=tonyalexander%2Eactivehosted%2Ecom&email=qcmwvq5abY8hz7kZxf7GH735hO7C%2FF3J%2FgQB9Uu3XAY%3D&s=05e99de56204b8dcf0eb95bd41d72547&i=177A186A1A1123

interestings times we are in........I hear in many areas there is a lot more rental supply now.......could we be entering into a period of higher rental loan servicing costs(higher interest rates) and lower rents......why not we have just been through a period with lower loan servicing cost and rising rents

I am thinking we are entering a period where everything from the last 20 years is turned upside down.
For how long? that is the question.

Lot's mixed messaging out there, articles comparing Irelands rental market to what nz could become. Other's saying buyers choice.

We have found tenants for the remaining house, now it's just a matter of seeing what the interest rates do as we are using ANZ's blueprint to build floating rate (currently 4.08%).

Govt 'disappointed' domestic violence tenancy regulations are long overdue. ACT calls it 'unacceptable'
Rob Stock
The Ministry of Housing and Urban Development has secured a legal opinion that a law allowing victims of domestic violence to break a tenancy to escape an abusive relationship is now in force, despite the Government's failure to pass enabling regulations.

The amendment to the Residential Tenancies Act allowing victims of domestic violence to leave a tenancy with just two days notice was to come into force in August last year, but the Government failed to pass the regulations in time to see that happen.

A year later, it still had not been, which ACT housing spokesperson Brooke van Velden said was unacceptable, calling the Government "too disorganised to get its own house in order".

Housing Minister Megan Woods said she was disappointed the regulations had taken so long, and acknowledged it was frustrating for landlords and people who wanted to use the law to help domestic violence victims.

READ MORE:
* Tenancy law changes: What do they really mean?
* Tenancy law changes a 'step in the right direction'
* Tenancy changes a recipe for trouble

Now, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development has written to property managers saying it had "received legal advice that the provisions are in effect and can be used, even though the regulations are not yet in force".

Unattended consequences are already starting to happen with landlords NOT choosing women, especially solo mums.

A lot of Landlords don't think it's fair that they carry the cost for this.

Lost count of the number of clients over the years who have brought rental properties, put their kids into them and the kid gets into an abusive relationship and the rental property gets trashed.  I am afraid to say more often than not this leads to a heavily strained relationship, the kid moving on and taking their issues with them and the landlord footing a five-figure repair bill.

The socialist leanings of this Government will do nothing to help the rental stock level's.
Hope KPG know what they are in for with high rise built to rent in New Lynn.
This dog has had a couple of apartment rentals in that neck of the woods before and it wasn't a very rewarding experience...no major disaster and we got out before the apartment complex starting leaking but nonetheless a lot of work for very little reward.  I haven't owned a rental property since then and won't.
If you can't get rid of troublesome tenants, why would you bother ?

Quote from: Basil on Sep 12, 2022, 03:39 PM... a lot of work for very little reward. ...

This exactly, thankfully in my poor experience the tenant had the foresight to keep the laboratory experiments in the garage with no lining

Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 12, 2022, 01:34 PMUnattended consequences are already starting to happen with landlords NOT choosing women, especially solo mums.

A lot of Landlords don't think it's fair that they carry the cost for this.

Domestic violence is a scourge on all echelons of society, not just the low income ones.  You will never be able to pick it either.  However the big problem with the legislation is that it allows the abuser to stay in the property for 2 weeks rent free every time the abused moves out.  Considering that a woman on average makes 7 attempts to leave before finally doing so, thats 7 periods of free rent you are on the hook for. 

Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 12, 2022, 01:34 PMUnattended consequences are already starting to happen with landlords NOT choosing women, especially solo mums.

A lot of Landlords don't think it's fair that they carry the cost for this.

Don't you see it as odd that they continue to vote for the clowns that make this possible?  Baffles me, but hey, maybe they manage to trick half the population with appeal to emotion and feels?

Quote from: arekaywhy on Sep 19, 2022, 10:53 AMDon't you see it as odd that they continue to vote for the clowns that make this possible?  Baffles me, but hey, maybe they manage to trick half the population with appeal to emotion and feels?

I guess if there are only clowns standing for election, than clowns is what you get, no matter which colour they represent.

Lets not forget that the last National team was absolutely unelectable.

But back to the subject - NZ's rental market and its regulations are shambles, but to be fair, it was all political parties contributing to this mess. Nobody cared to create a framework for a good and stable rental market.

It is not just the landlords who have little protection against bad renters (and yes, these people exist), good renters (and yes, they exist as well) get screwed over again and again, given that it is e.g. very easy for bad landlords (and yes, they do exist as well) to break their contract just by selling a property.

Might be a cultural issue ... in many European countries do good renters live for decades in the same rental accommodation provided by good landlords. Not utopia: I remember my grandparents used to live for more than 50 years in the same rental unit, they paid a fair rent (from memory something like 20% ... 25% of their income), they looked after their unit ... and the landlord (a registered company) made a profit as well. Not by speculating, but by getting a fair return on their investment. 

all excellent points

I cannot help but see that the common denominator is gubmint intervention/meddling

Quote from: snapiti on Aug 28, 2022, 05:06 PMinterestings times we are in........I hear in many areas there is a lot more rental supply now.......could we be entering into a period of higher rental loan servicing costs(higher interest rates) and lower rents......why not we have just been through a period with lower loan servicing cost and rising rents

I'd like to hear more of what your thinking is on the current state of the NZ real estate market.  You may remember we disagreed on Fat P about an impending crash.  From which I'd suggest your viewpoint did you very well, and mine allowed mt to say, I got it wrong! 

simple really, residential realestate prices sky rocketed on the back of low servicing cost(interest rates)........now with climbing interest rates servicing costs of loans is much higher.......of most interest is bank margins are way lower than normal at the moment as they all try to fight for a ever decreasing piece of the mortgage lending pie and to another degree slow the property price correction down. The last time swap rates were this price 2 year mortgage rates were over 7%
Where it all ends up, I suggest will take another 12 months to sort out and will be determined by the reserve bank rate hikes......of course the real fear here is they over correct monetary policy again. 
At least the labour market is strong for now.   

I was a realestate agent for 10 years, during that time I seen hundreds of rental properties, only ever seen two trashed, quite a rare event.
However it appeared to be a foolish ideology to buy a new house or second hand one and renovate it and rent it out not expecting it to age quickly.

Almost 10% of owners said they kept their properties empty intentionally, and one in four ghost homes had been vaccant for at least a year. Says article in stuff today.

Concerning that property owner's would do this? Owners are so worried about having tenants, so would rather leave them empty than have the risk. Secondly a suggestion of some sort of tax to incentivise people to rent the house out seems very communist to me.

I can see this issue getting worse now that it is extremely hard to get rid of bad tenants.  The anti landlord rhetoric this government and some press seems to be championing also does not help.

As a long-term landlord I am already seeing unintended consequences from labours tax and tenancy law changes. Landlords are being very picky in picking Tenants. They are not prepared to take risks and unfortunately rejecting certain groups of people. You also have people that are now reluctant to invest in a rental property.

Given 85% I believe of rental properties are supplied by mum and dad landlords, with majority only owning one property. You would've thought the government of the day would incentivise the private sector instead of making it more difficult.

Thoughts?

Quote from: snapiti on Sep 30, 2022, 11:22 PMI was a realestate agent for 10 years, during that time I seen hundreds of rental properties, only ever seen two trashed, quite a rare event.
However it appeared to be a foolish ideology to buy a new house or second hand one and renovate it and rent it out not expecting it to age quickly.

I've been a bean counter for more than 40 years.  First ten years is just learning.  I have lost count of the number of clients who have had their properties trashed and the number who have faced major water ingress issues.  So many Mum and Dad investors lives have been severely affected.  Now that the prospect for capital gains has vanished and Cindy and her left wing socialists are dictating terms to the point where you genuinely wonder who controls the property, the owner, the tenant or the Government, why would anyone bother ?

I reckon more than half my clients who have bought apartments have had major weather tightness remediation problems.

I don't care how cheap it is, you will never see me buy an apartment.  You will literally be purchasing a money burning machine, with the added bonus of a lesson in the tragedy of the commons

Quote from: arekaywhy on Oct 14, 2022, 01:34 PMI don't care how cheap it is, you will never see me buy an apartment.  You will literally be purchasing a money burning machine, with the added bonus of a lesson in the tragedy of the commons

Well, we wish you well. Many people got another handful of worthwhile years for doing just that (buying an apartment in a retirement village), but I suppose if you can be sure that your life runs out before your fitness does - or alternatively if you can afford to finance all care services privately, than all good;

To early to call but

(1) We have some experts saying inflation peaked.

(2) Ukrainian president saying the end of the war maybe near.

(3) National median price in the month of October 2022 was up 1.9% on September 2022.

(4) Today we hear more people coming than going

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/10%20-%20October/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20October%202022.pdf

posting this if anyone wants to read it,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/17/new-zealand-house-seller-throws-in-free-tesla-as-market-tumbles

I dont read the Guardian i followed a link there........

Quote from: mcdongle on Nov 18, 2022, 01:06 PMhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/17/new-zealand-house-seller-throws-in-free-tesla-as-market-tumbles

I dont read the Guardian i followed a link there........

haha, "here's a free headache"

New Zealand gets a mention in this.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F76e8b499-2381-463d-ac6d-9d3507f150c3

Williams Corp have now gated all their investors from redeeming their funds.  Apparently triggered once more than a third of investors ask for their money back.  Sadly, probably too late for most of them as I don't believe this company will still be around in 12 months time
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/williams-corporations-1524m-investor-funds-six-monthly-withdrawals-extended-to-annually/YPVZBD3KN5FC3OEGMMOFBERIDE/

Bets mates wife has a Trust fund and her father has that $1m invested and all the other kids $1m each too, through one of the big legal firms its best I don't name.  They run a contributory mortgage scheme and lend money to a number of developers.

I can't see how her Trust fund won't get a serious haircut in the next year or two.

Much more to this story, remind me to tell you the whole 9 yards at some stage.... interesting study in human psychology.

Can't repay their investors, but continues to fly around the country on their private plane  >:(

Quote from: KW on Dec 23, 2022, 06:06 PMCan't repay their investors, but continues to fly around the country on their private plane  >:(

And apparently the Rolls Royce when at home...and some on here lusts after the $4m 87-foot launch

But the affect are sophisticated professional investors so no worries

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 23, 2022, 06:38 PMBut the affect are sophisticated professional investors so no worries

Yeah, about that.  Some merely claim to be sophisticated investors but are really just little old ladies who sold their house and moved into a rest home and put their life savings into Williams Corp because its the only place that was paying any interest....
https://www.fma.govt.nz/assets/Enforcement/Warnings/Warning-Williams-Corporation-Capital-Partnership-GP-Limited.pdf

Williams Corp just put 25 tenanted townhouses up for sale on Friday, obviously trying to raise some cash by offloading their rental portfolio (of previously unsold townhouses) - Go make them an offer they cannot refuse lol

Predictions: What about 2023?

Most pundits tipped prices to continue falling in 2023. But they expected the speed of the falls to slow.

Davidson said his team at CoreLogic had recorded about a 10 per cent drop in average Kiwi house values and believed another 10 per cent drop was possible in 2023.

That would be greater than the 10 per cent drop during the GFC, but would mean house prices were still higher than they were before Covid hit, he said.

Valocity's Wilson also expected continued falls but said they would likely become milder or even flatten out as 2023 progressed.

Economist Tony Alexander concurred, saying there would be more falls but also that there were increasing signs the market was turning and that it wouldn't collapse in 2023.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/2022-was-a-bumpy-year-in-the-housing-market-what-will-2023-bring/CVAJPL7VMZCGBCRJTKEXIF52MY/

Falling but more slowly they're saying...like snow.  Hopefully, not like NYC snow.

Quote from: snapiti on Aug 28, 2022, 05:06 PMinterestings times we are in........I hear in many areas there is a lot more rental supply now.......could we be entering into a period of higher rental loan servicing costs(higher interest rates) and lower rents......why not we have just been through a period with lower loan servicing cost and rising rents

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42800
Interesting times indeed Snapper.  Mate of mine has been renting a large house in West Harbour for $800 pwk (extended family situation so his Mum pays some of it) for four years now.  Obviously with inflation at 7.2% this year and a couple / few percent in the other years $800 now is not the same as it was 4 years ago.  On top of that the landlord has higher rates, insurance and now interest rates.  Due to market pressure I see it as unlikely that his landlord can put that rent up but you never know, he could be forced to so I have told my friend to be ready for a $100 increase but I would think even if the landlord does this he will be significantly worse off than 4 years ago in terms of real net after tax income.

In addition, the landlord now faces the very real prospect of another year of severe capital value decline.  Who would want to be a landlord right now ?

Quote from: Basil on Jan 02, 2023, 11:33 AMhttps://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42800
Interesting times indeed Snapper.  Mate of mine has been renting a large house in West Harbour for $800 pwk (extended family situation so his Mum pays some of it) for four years now.  Obviously with inflation at 7.2% this year and a couple / few percent in the other years $800 now is not the same as it was 4 years ago.  On top of that the landlord has higher rates, insurance and now interest rates.  Due to market pressure I see it as unlikely that his landlord can put that rent up but you never know, he could be forced to so I have told my friend to be ready for a $100 increase but I would think even if the landlord does this he will be significantly worse off than 4 years ago in terms of real net after tax income.

In addition, the landlord now faces the very real prospect of another year of severe capital value decline.  Who would want to be a landlord right now ?

You forgot the extra income tax he has to pay as interest deductibility is phased out, down to just 50% from 1 April.  There is a very high chance that investors will choose to sell up as soon as their fixed rate mortgages expire.  I expect tenants will be told that unless they cough up a huge increase in rent, they will be given their marching orders as the landlord will be forced to sell up if they can't cover the cash shortfall.  With immigration back on, those tenants will be competing in a crowded market again, not the quiet over supply we've enjoyed for the last 3 years with closed borders. 

Quite right, (I'm in non-work mode at present so forgot).  Other challenges as well including the extension of the bright line test to 10 years, extreme difficulty evicting a tenant, recently enacted requirements regarding healthy homes and after all that you will have the pleasure of dealing with the IRD who often take a very hard line against large items of repairs and maintenance and say they're non-deductible because they're capital improvements.  Its "lovely" for a client to hear that after a tenant has contaminated your rental property with methamphetamine and you've spent $60K on a total refurbishment and clean-up.  Most sell after experiencing this sort of thing and never go back to owning a rental property again.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42810
I reckon the headwinds facing residential property investors have never been stronger.  I reckon the market has at least another 20% downwards to go, maybe 30%.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 03, 2023, 04:48 PMQuite right, (I'm in non-work mode at present so forgot).  Other challenges as well including the extension of the bright line test to 10 years, extreme difficulty evicting a tenant, recently enacted requirements regarding healthy homes and after all that you will have the pleasure of dealing with the IRD who often take a very hard line against large items of repairs and maintenance and say they're non-deductible because they're capital improvements.  Its "lovely" for a client to hear that after a tenant has contaminated your rental property with methamphetamine and you've spent $60K on a total refurbishment and clean-up.  Most sell after experiencing this sort of thing and never go back to owning a rental property again.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42810
I reckon the headwinds facing residential property investors have never been stronger.  I reckon the market has at least another 20% downwards to go, maybe 30%.

Getting interest on cash again changes everything.   A lot of them are going to think "if I sell up now, I preserve what equity I have in the house, and I can get 5% return on that money in the bank, with no risk, and I don't have to stress about tenants".  In an era of no interest, the only way to make money was to go out on the risk curve - to accept low rental yields and negative cashflow in exchange for tax free future capital gains (which are no longer guaranteed and not tax free).  Now you don't have to.  Its not just that investors are facing headwinds, their whole psychology is about to change big time as well. 

Agreed and its not like you have to lock it in to get a half reasonable return either.  I have a fair bit with direct broking on call earning 3.9%, likely to be ~ 4.5% next month when Orr does his thing with interest rates again and am retaining full optionality with that money around when and where to invest as the situation in the market unfolds this year.  Go back just 14 months to November 2021 and the best you could get on a one year term deposit was 2.1%. I forget what call rates were then but it was almost nothing.
A lot changed in 2022 eh.

I have been in the property game for a long time, this article reflects how I see things as well. It seems an accurate account to me of the market currently .

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/landlord-tax-you-can-put-up-the-rent-by-150-a-week-but-you-wont-find-a-willing-tenant-42800

I'd wager you've done incredibly well over the long run with property.  Are you going to ride the storm out or try and cash in some chips mate ?

Spoke to an agent late last year - they stated that one of the local agencies recently had 17 tenders close ... without a single offer.  I also have noticed a number of rentals appearing (with different agencies) of recently completed multi unit developments (at least half for one 18 unit development). 

Any developers behind schedule will be feeling very nervous if pre-purchasers have an exit clause for late deliver.  Ditto for their lenders...

Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 04, 2023, 09:08 AMI have been in the property game for a long time, this article reflects how I see things as well. It seems an accurate account to me of the market currently .

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/landlord-tax-you-can-put-up-the-rent-by-150-a-week-but-you-wont-find-a-willing-tenant-42800

I think it depends where you are.  There is currently only 1 property in Blenheim available to rent long term. Normally there are about 11, which was already a diabolical shortage.  Much of regional NZ has seen double digit increases in rents over the last year.  Its Auckland and Wellington that are lagging - and that is a direct result of people fleeing the country for places like Australia, and the lack of people coming in to the country to replace them.  Should immigration actually go back to what it was, then Auckland in particular should start absorbing that rental over supply and rents will rise accordingly.

If you look at Australia, rental vacancies are at record lows and rents are rising 15% a year now.  Some parts of Sydney have seen 20-40% increases in rent.  Victoria has seen a 20% increase in rents, with some areas up by 150%.  Immigration is pumping there.  NZ is just miles behind Australia in opening up the country post covid.  Hopefully in 2023 we catch up.
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/it-s-a-crisis-rents-in-almost-every-sydney-suburb-jumped-in-the-past-year-20221013-p5bpha.html

So yes, its quite easy to put rents up $100 a week
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/suburbs-where-tenants-could-pay-5200-more-a-year-in-rent/news-story/6399df33b5ae64d35970d353b0ef3d3d

Quote from: Popeye on Jan 04, 2023, 11:14 AMSpoke to an agent late last year - they stated that one of the local agencies recently had 17 tenders close ... without a single offer.  I also have noticed a number of rentals appearing (with different agencies) of recently completed multi unit developments (at least half for one 18 unit development). 

Any developers behind schedule will be feeling very nervous if pre-purchasers have an exit clause for late deliver.  Ditto for their lenders...

I'm seeing a lot of half built properties being advertised for sale, developers arent even waiting for completion and nice photos to be taken, but are attempting to sell construction sites 

Quote from: Basil on Jan 04, 2023, 09:38 AMI'd wager you've done incredibly well over the long run with property.  Are you going to ride the storm out or try and cash in some chips mate ?

Yes property has set us up for life, not shares.  A lot easier years ago. Banks were very generous with their money and taxation and depreciation made a huge difference. Huge risks but so thankful we did it. We did end up selling one 2020 during lockdown after a good agent rang us about listing ours with a neighbour who was selling. Sold as development section for obscene amount. Other than that no plans to sell. 

Still think for long term investors hard to go wrong if the sums add up. Yes property is going down , but it went up a ridiculous amount 2020 (Over 20 percent nationally) for no good reason. One thing I'm sure of is that sooner than later it will start going up again.  History supports it.

Quote from: KW on Jan 04, 2023, 12:01 PMI think it depends where you are.  There is currently only 1 property in Blenheim available to rent long term. Normally there are about 11, which was already a diabolical shortage.  Much of regional NZ has seen double digit increases in rents over the last year.  Its Auckland and Wellington that are lagging - and that is a direct result of people fleeing the country for places like Australia, and the lack of people coming in to the country to replace them.  Should immigration actually go back to what it was, then Auckland in particular should start absorbing that rental over supply and rents will rise accordingly.

If you look at Australia, rental vacancies are at record lows and rents are rising 15% a year now.  Some parts of Sydney have seen 20-40% increases in rent.  Victoria has seen a 20% increase in rents, with some areas up by 150%.  Immigration is pumping there.  NZ is just miles behind Australia in opening up the country post covid.  Hopefully in 2023 we catch up.
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/it-s-a-crisis-rents-in-almost-every-sydney-suburb-jumped-in-the-past-year-20221013-p5bpha.html

So yes, its quite easy to put rents up $100 a week
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/suburbs-where-tenants-could-pay-5200-more-a-year-in-rent/news-story/6399df33b5ae64d35970d353b0ef3d3d

Your right KW. I'm only talking about the Auckland market. Outside Auckland there is shortages of properties in lots of areas and plenty of good tenants. In Auckland, especially South Auckland currently rents are stagnant as plenty of supply in a lot of areas. I agree once the immigration tap turns on that should change.  There has also been a lot of internal movement from smaller towns and cities in NZ to Auckland from younger people which I think has reversed. Now we have a lot of older people and families moving out of Auckland but hard to get numbers or a real idea of the net effect.

Foreigners now banned from buying homes in Canada https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64082923

Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 06, 2023, 08:19 AMForeigners now banned from buying homes in Canada https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64082923

Except they are doing exactly the same as Jacinda and handing out permanent residency to everyone. 
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/12/canada-welcomes-historic-number-of-newcomers-in-2022.html
"In 2022, IRCC processed approximately 5.2 million applications for permanent residence, temporary residence and citizenship."

Quote from: KW on Jan 06, 2023, 01:10 PMExcept they are doing exactly the same as Jacinda and handing out permanent residency to everyone.
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/12/canada-welcomes-historic-number-of-newcomers-in-2022.html
"In 2022, IRCC processed approximately 5.2 million applications for permanent residence, temporary residence and citizenship."

I didn't realize that this is what Jacinda was doing .. if you are right, they did hide it very well!

This is the most xenophobe government NZ ever had ... and our anti immigration minister and department did a great job in making sure that our health system and our industries are basically running short in all essential skill areas.

You think it is easy to get PR in NZ these days (unless you have billions to buy you one)? Think again ... while dying in front of the hospital because the doctor and the nurse you need have been kicked out of the country by our government ...!

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 06, 2023, 04:50 PMI didn't realize that this is what Jacinda was doing .. if you are right, they did hide it very well!

This is the most xenophobe government NZ ever had ... and our anti immigration minister and department did a great job in making sure that our health system and our industries are basically running short in all essential skill areas.

You think it is easy to get PR in NZ these days (unless you have billions to buy you one)? Think again ... while dying in front of the hospital because the doctor and the nurse you need have been kicked out of the country by our government ...!

Did you miss the big revamp of the work visa rules?  In addition to making over 200,000 temporary workers in NZ permanent residents automatically, just about anyone who applies to work in NZ can now get a "straight to residence" visa.  It was introduced in September 2022
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/apply-for-a-visa/tools-and-information/work-and-employment/green-list-and-highly-paid-residence-categories

Quote from: KW on Jan 06, 2023, 10:49 PMDid you miss the big revamp of the work visa rules?  In addition to making over 200,000 temporary workers in NZ permanent residents automatically, just about anyone who applies to work in NZ can now get a "straight to residence" visa.  It was introduced in September 2022
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/apply-for-a-visa/tools-and-information/work-and-employment/green-list-and-highly-paid-residence-categories

Well, its not anyone ... you need to be on some list of jobs some bureaucrat decided that we need them. But I guess you are right - after pi**ing every potential immigrant off for nearly three years and treating foreigners like annoying flees, the most xenophobe NZ government ever noticed they made a mistake and are now somewhat opening the gates again for crucial workers.

Personally I think its too little, too late. People clearly don't feel welcome in NZ anymore and remember the government who broke their contractual commitments because they could and did hang out approved immigrants to dry (sorry, your visa just expired because we choose to offer approved visa holders no MIQ place -too bad you sold already your house and gave up your job because you trusted the NZ government to stick to its commitments). This government does not care about the livelihoods and families it destroyed, and I recon we all will pay for that a long time to come.

These days there are many countries competing for skilled labour - and not many have such an unkind and untrustworthy government and such a sickening pool of xenophobes egging them on.

Anyway - I digress from the thread.

I guess for the purpose of this thread this well might mean that housing might dip a bit further. People leave if they feel unwelcome, and with less workers and with less customers some more businesses will go to the wall. People leaving for greener pastures and given nobody can take their house with them ... market will keep going down.

Meanwhile, in Australia immigration is going gangbusters.  They have processed over 3M visas
https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/AndrewGiles/Pages/3-million-visas-processed-backlog-down-to-755000.aspx#

International students are at record levels.

Quote

The University of Melbourne reported its international student applications were up 17 per cent this year from last and 25 per cent from 2019, the last academic year before the pandemic.
The University of New South Wales said international student applications had increased by 25 per cent from before the pandemic...
The University of Wollongong was also anticipating a strong year of enrolments, recording a 40 per cent increase in overseas applications from 2019...
The University of Queensland has also seen interest from international students increase by 27 per cent since pre-pandemic levels...

They are processing working holiday visas in 24 hours
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/backpackers-in-priority-lane-as-numbers-near-precovid-levels/news-story/e48d904e49834302dd287d97977acfb9
"Working holiday visas are being rushed through within an average of 24 hours, lifting backpacker numbers closer to their pre-Covid levels as the government faces calls to raise the eligibility age to 50 to plug critical labour shortages and attract more skilled professionals.
Immigration Minister Andrew Giles said the number of backpackers working in the country had bounced back from lows of just 20,000 during the pandemic to about 120,000 as of last week."

Better pay, better weather, better beaches, cheaper cost of living, why wouldn't you pick Australia over NZ?  Better fix it fast, or NZ is just going to see a net outflow of Kiwi's to Australia again, like under the last Labour Govt when people like myself all left for Australia and the UK. 

Quote from: KW on Jan 07, 2023, 12:07 PMMeanwhile, in Australia immigration is going gangbusters.  They have processed over 3M visas
https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/AndrewGiles/Pages/3-million-visas-processed-backlog-down-to-755000.aspx#

International students are at record levels.
They are processing working holiday visas in 24 hours
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/backpackers-in-priority-lane-as-numbers-near-precovid-levels/news-story/e48d904e49834302dd287d97977acfb9
"Working holiday visas are being rushed through within an average of 24 hours, lifting backpacker numbers closer to their pre-Covid levels as the government faces calls to raise the eligibility age to 50 to plug critical labour shortages and attract more skilled professionals.
Immigration Minister Andrew Giles said the number of backpackers working in the country had bounced back from lows of just 20,000 during the pandemic to about 120,000 as of last week."

Better pay, better weather, better beaches, cheaper cost of living, why wouldn't you pick Australia over NZ?  Better fix it fast, or NZ is just going to see a net outflow of Kiwi's to Australia again, like under the last Labour Govt when people like myself all left for Australia and the UK. 

And don't forget - NZ has an extremely xenophobe government which just recently screwed a lot of visa holders and harassed the reminder. Why would anybody want to go there if there are so much better options available?

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 07, 2023, 03:24 PMAnd don't forget - NZ has an extremely xenophobe government which just recently screwed a lot of visa holders and harassed the reminder. Why would anybody want to go there if there are so much better options available?

Meanwhile the Labour Govt is scratching its head and wondering why only one person has applied for residency under its "rich person visa" after doing this 
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/hamish-rutherford-herald-wellington-business-editor-on-inland-revenues-letter-to-the-ultra-rich/

Honestly, you couldnt make this  :-X up!

Latest IRD disclosure requirements for family trusts are a gigantic drag net fishing exercise too.

Quote from: KW on Jan 07, 2023, 04:53 PMMeanwhile the Labour Govt is scratching its head and wondering why only one person has applied for residency under its "rich person visa"

And at the same time, it is now taking 55 months to process applications for retired parents of citizens, who must have at least $1.5m cash plus to invest, which cannot be spent on a home in NZ. It's now 18 months since we lodged an application for a parent. We are yet to have our application assigned to someone in Immigration and there is no one you can talk to. Absolutely hopeless department and even worse Government. I'm aware there are hundreds of such applicants in the same boat. Do they care these applicants are aging? No. Worst Government ever, even worse than Muldoon and his lot.

Edit: for clarity, this immigration category requires investing $1m locally (but not in a home) plus having $500k to fund expenses. In addition historic earnings most exceed a 60-70k threshold. The applicant will move in with us so there is zero pressure added to the housing market, which is what I believe this Government is ideologically focused on. Hence the reason they are purposefully dragging the chain with Immigration applications. When we applied the duration was 20 months; it is now a 55 month process.

You must be pulling your hair out.  Given the simplicity of the criteria, you have to wonder whether there is internal guidance or deliberate underresourcing to achieve unwritten policy goals (such as slowing immigration).  Like when Housing NZ was miraculously stopped turfing out any misbehaving tenants (clients?) without any change in written policy.

A combination of a government who have learned to replace overt written policy with a nudge and a wink, and Wellington bureaucrats who are remote robots who carry out whatever running brief they are given no matter how foolish (or heartless). 

Exactly Popeye. Nothing official as you say. But actions speak louder than words. Very frustrating.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130936458/dileepa-fonseka-australia-takes-over-from-new-zealand-as-the-canarys-canary-for-plummeting-house-prices

I think Dileepa is seriously over selling the situation in Australia, prices were ripe for a correction - as the chart shows.  So far the drop is 8.4% (between May 2022 and January 2023.)   A correction is generally agreed to be a 10% to 20% drop in value from a recent peak.   

Tony Alexander's 2 cents (https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42878) he reckons it all comes down to interest rates...

"There is no rush of people to sell property and the overwhelming market dynamic remains a lack of buyers. If you're going to make a personal pick for when house prices stop falling, you need to therefore take a view on when the buyers return. Stronger than expected net migration inflows will help, as will high job security and rapidly improving affordability in terms of house prices versus income. But the key is interest rates. You will need to make a prediction for when they start falling.

My view is that we are at the peaks for fixed rates of two years and beyond while floating rates are set to rise up to another 1.25% and the one-year rate could creep higher by 0.25% or so. But with most people fixing just one year and the Reserve Bank clearly needing to see inflation solidly trending down, it doesn't seem reasonable to believe yet that people will be thinking in terms of buying then riding a coming trail of falling interest rates downward until the middle of the year at the earliest."

That's a lot of words to say: house prices will edge lower until the middle of the year.   So he remains relatively optimistic.

Then again, he previously predicted housing prices to flatten out but not to fall.

Interesting article


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-11/rents-increase-record-cost-of-living/101840454

Property stories coming thick and fast in MSM -

Today in Stuff alone:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130950990/window-to-sell-closing-for-investors-who-cant-afford-to-keep-properties

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130959225/townhouses-apartments-drive-building-consent-growth

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300770250/new-years-bootcamp-get-your-mortgage-sorted

Suddenly everyone you talk to has an opinion on the property market.  Maybe, there is more life left in it yet?

Many people have done so well out of residential property they will ride this storm out even if it lasts for years.  Others will think they can ride the storm out because it will be short and all they have known is a rising market and they think it will revert to that quite quickly.

It's the simple rules of supply and demand that will prevail meaning its highly likely prices continue to fall and when vast numbers of people no longer qualify for mortgage finance at these sort of interest rates.  It's inevitable there will be a lack of demand for the foreseeable future.  Watch the number of forced sellers grow as the year goes on...the decline is just getting started.

Starting to look pretty ugly now.  Although one has to remember the ridiculous gains in the first place for some perspective.  Not great for those who bought over the last 2 years though  :'(

https://blog.homes.co.nz/property-homeowners/monthly-property-report/getting-your-home-sale-ready/Monthly-property-report-table.png

Another 25% to come out of this market bubble to get back to where we were before this all got pumped up with the rocket fuel of one in a 100 year low interest rates.  A further 25% fall will just take us back to just before the Covid fueled madness began but then we need to consider what shape the economy will be in, where interest rates and tax policy will be next year and how many distressed sellers are left.
I reckon 2023 and 2024 are highly likely to both be incredibly tough years for property investors.

There's going to be a lot of tears from young people who bought close to the peak, locked in large mortgages on ultra low interest rates for a couple of years and then have to face the brutal reality when their interest rate resets, they can't afford to keep their home.  All their dreams and the equity they saved so hard to get for so many years...turned into the worst nightmare of their lives.

At one point as I understand it banks were lending at under 2.5% and stress testing in the mid 4% range. Those people have no hope at 7%.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 19, 2023, 03:51 PMThere's going to be a lot of tears from young people who bought close to the peak, locked in large mortgages on ultra low interest rates for a couple of years and then have to face the brutal reality when their interest rate resets, they can't afford to keep their home.  All their dreams and the equity they saved so hard to get for so many years...turned into the worst nightmare of their lives.

At one point as I understand it banks were lending at under 2.5% and stress testing in the mid 4% range. Those people have no hope at 7%.

Don't forget they also cleaned out their Kiwisaver accounts to buy that home, so will have no home and no retirement savings.  Basically starting from scratch all over again.

Quote from: KW on Jan 19, 2023, 05:02 PMDon't forget they also cleaned out their Kiwisaver accounts to buy that home, so will have no home and no retirement savings.  Basically starting from scratch all over again.

And further out won't be candidates for a retirement village in later life.

Quote from: KW on Jan 19, 2023, 05:02 PMDon't forget they also cleaned out their Kiwisaver accounts to buy that home, so will have no home and no retirement savings.  Basically starting from scratch all over again.

Very true, happens in almost all cases I would wager. Its really heartbreaking stuff.  Really feel for these young people who have probably listened to well-meaning relatives who have advised them you simply can't go wrong with property darling, get into it. 

The less said about all the self-serving real estate agents who tell people the same thing without pointing out any of the risks, the better.   I'd wager many of these "professionals" are now telling people this is a fabulous time to buy.  Get in now after the market has fallen, there's never been a better time to buy...

Quote from: Basil on Jan 19, 2023, 05:09 PMVery true, happens in almost all cases I would wager. Its really heartbreaking stuff.  Really feel for these young people who have probably listened to well-meaning relatives who have advised them you simply can't go wrong with property darling, get into it. 

The less said about all the self-serving real estate agents who tell people the same thing without pointing out any of the risks, the better.   I'd wager many of these "professionals" are now telling people this is a fabulous time to buy.  Get in now after the market has fallen, there's never been a better time to buy...

No doubt mum and dad will write off their loans as well

Yeap, after all equity is gone the bank of Mum and Dad is always first in line for a haircut.

Quote from: KW on Jan 19, 2023, 05:02 PMDon't forget they also cleaned out their Kiwisaver accounts to buy that home, so will have no home and no retirement savings.  Basically starting from scratch all over again.

One thing I sincerely hope is that NZ matures, learns, and instills financial literacy into their children...cold hard reality can do that...hard times make tough men

I talked a couple of young relatives out of buying in late 2021.  There was story after story about house price explosion, and about how unfair it was for young people not able to get their foot in the door.  Shades of the FOMO that led to 'every man and his dog' diving into the sharemarket before the 1987 crash.  The media managed to create anxious young people desperate to not be the ones left behind, never a good mind set when making a major financial investment. 

A more responsible media might have tried harder to explain property as an asset class amongst asset classes, just as subject to the rules of financial gravity as any other.  An extreme example - Tokyo apartment values did not recover for 25 years after their 1980s mega boom!

First homebuyers were sold on the dream of living alongside neighbours they knew. But now they say it feels "like we're living in a motel".
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/131017798/williams-corporation-converts-unsold-townhouses-into-airbnbs

Williams Corp just uploaded another 3 tenanted properties for sale, one bedroom townhouses with no parking, and they are asking $600-$620k for each of them.  They are rented at $450 per week.  Who exactly is going to be buying these?
Assuming you were a first home buyer, with a 20% deposit, your mortgage alone would be $740 a week, plus rates and insurance.  Almost double the amount of rent you would be paying.
Only a fiscally suicidal investor would buy one of these, and as they are built pre-2021 they do not even qualify for interest deductibility.
So you see AirBnB is really the only option for them (but only for newly built houses as you cannot get rid of existing tenants any more).  Or bankruptcy.

Quote from: Stoploss on Jan 21, 2023, 10:22 AMFirst homebuyers were sold on the dream of living alongside neighbours they knew. But now they say it feels "like we're living in a motel".
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/131017798/williams-corporation-converts-unsold-townhouses-into-airbnbs

"The six Biddle Cres townhouses once had committed buyers – but "settlement issues" resulted in the sales falling through.
"They were actually sold – our marketing at the time was factually correct."

This is only going to get worse.

It is starting to remind me a bit of the early 1990's

Wellington market getting better ...homes cheap as......no worries

Crowds at Wellington open homes as buyers see chance of $400K discounts

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42935

Just put this here for a laugh.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/128248445#/?channel=COM_BUY

No mention of immigration.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43001?utm_source=nzherald&utm_medium=nzhapp

Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 06, 2023, 08:40 AMNo mention of immigration.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43001?utm_source=nzherald&utm_medium=nzhapp

Ssshhhh!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/131141553/migrants-share-of-home-purchases-climbs-to-over-11

Property values nationally fell by an average of 1.1% in January, probably quashing the industry's hopes of a stabilisation, Quotable Value says.
The drop suggested a steeper decline than previously measured by other monitoring companies, and put the annual decline at 12.1%, the property valuing company (QV) said.
The reductions could throw cold water on hopes that the decline in house prices were slowing as buyers became more comfortable with higher interest rates.
QV chief operating officer David Nagel said it looked like the market had not hit bottom yet.

Link (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131212230/bigger-than-expected-house-value-fall-could-quash-hopes-of-market-stabilisation--qv)

Westpac sounds warning (https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/nearly-half-of-home-loans-at-risk-of-breaching-payment-buffers-20230217-p5cl9x)"nearly half of its mortgage customers will have to make higher repayments than those the bank assumed when it assessed their capacity to repay low rate loans."

"...provided reassurance that those who get into trouble will be helped through the tough times, and the bank would use its financial strength to restructure debts – including putting some stressed borrowers onto interest-only terms to reduce their monthly repayments."

The rather ridiculous headline aside, this tolls clear warning of more pain coming in Aust's mortgage belt.  No signs of recovery in Westpac's rhetoric.

When people claim there is a shortage of housing, but developers are building rubbish like this on valuable and scarce land ... https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1-vrnX0P-8-yXGRlX9Y_SG-MR-luPbrSS

Williams Corp lastest offering - 39 sqm studio where the bedroom is the pull out couch.  Why is Council even approving this crap?  If you want to build a hotel, build a hotel.  

Where does it state that the bed is a pull out couch? Maybe I missed something but I can't see any mention of that.

Quote from: KW on Feb 26, 2023, 09:31 AMWhen people claim there is a shortage of housing, but developers are building rubbish like this on valuable and scarce land ... https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1-vrnX0P-8-yXGRlX9Y_SG-MR-luPbrSS

Williams Corp lastest offering - 39 sqm studio where the bedroom is the pull out couch.  Why is Council even approving this crap?  If you want to build a hotel, build a hotel. 

well it says Bedroom / Living room, So i suppose it could be a sofa bed.

I seriously doubt it, looking at the plans. It will be like a motel that has bed and living area combined. I actually really like the look of them. Self contained, easy care, presumably with parking provided. Ideal for a single or couple.

Quote from: mcdongle on Feb 26, 2023, 10:49 AMwell it says Bedroom / Living room, So i suppose it could be a sofa bed.

Quote from: Untamed on Feb 26, 2023, 10:57 AMI seriously doubt it, looking at the plans. It will be like a motel that has bed and living area combined. I actually really like the look of them. Self contained, easy care, presumably with parking provided. Ideal for a single or couple.

Exactly.  Its a hotel room.  It can only contain a bed or a couch, but not both.  If you actually want to live there, you will need to use a sofa bed. So its not designed for living, but merely visiting.  Its good for nothing but an AirBnB.  If you think you would enjoy living in a tiny hotel room for the rest of your life, then you are a rare creature and not the norm.   That land could have been used to provide real housing for local people.

I will take another look at the plans, but my daughter recently rented a flat in Christchurch - the owner purchased a block of motels, did them up and rented them out as flats. It was probably a similar size to the one you are talking about. Plenty of room for a queen sized bed and a two seater sofa, plus small table and chair. Full kitchen and separate bathroom. A nice, sunny, easy care flat. So I don't see anything wrong with these units for people looking for affordable housing. It would sure beat traditional rental scenarios for many single people or couples - and not only young people.

NZ needs to start thinking outside the square when it comes to housing. There are plenty of single people taking up a full house, when they don't need to - and often don't actually want to. Better to provide this type of housing as an alternative option for those in this category - that frees up traditional housing for families who need it.

We have to change the way we view housing. We can't continue on the way we have been for centuries. Tiny houses and minimalist units like these ones, absolutely have a place now.

By the way - it is "real housing." Many people these days would prefer not to be a slave to their property, and would far rather spend their free time doing things they enjoy, not being tied to property and land maintenance every weekend. These may not suit you, but I'd be perfectly happy to live in one - maybe not quite yet - but down the track.

Quote from: KW on Feb 26, 2023, 12:57 PMExactly.  Its a hotel room.  It can only contain a bed or a couch, but not both.  If you actually want to live there, you will need to use a sofa bed. So its not designed for living, but merely visiting.  That land could have been used to provide real housing.

Quote from: Untamed on Feb 26, 2023, 01:07 PMI will take another look at the plans, but my daughter recently rented a flat in Christchurch - the owner purchased a block of motels, did them up and rented them out as flats. It was probably a similar size to the one you are talking about. Plenty of room for a queen sized bed and a two seater sofa, plus small table and chair. Full kitchen and separate bathroom. A nice, sunny, easy care flat. So I don't see anything wrong with these units for people looking for affordable housing. It would sure beat traditional rental scenarios for many single people or couples - and not only young people.

NZ needs to start thinking outside the square when it comes to housing. There are plenty of single people taking up a full house, when they don't need to - and often don't actually want to. Better to provide this type of housing as an alternative option for those in this category - that frees up traditional housing for families who need it.

We have to change the way we view housing. We can't continue on the way we have been for centuries. Tiny houses and minimalist units like these ones, absolutely have a place now.

By the way - it is "real housing." Many people these days would prefer not to be a slave to their property, and would far rather spend their free time doing things they enjoy, not being tied to property and land maintenance every weekend. These may not suit you, but I'd be perfectly happy to live in one - maybe not quite yet - but down the track.

If you look at the plans, you will see the bed pictured is clearly a sofa bed, not a normal bed.  So they are smaller than a standard Queen.   

For less than the price of one of these studio units, you can buy a "real" 2 bedroom unit (with actual bedrooms) with a garage and garden.  So they are definitely not "affordable" - they are ridiculously expensive compared to what that money will buy you elsewhere in Christchurch. 
Like this one  https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/canterbury/christchurch-city/edgeware/listing/3795136502

You could even have a child or a pet in that unit.  Not to mention if you were single you could get a flatmate in and halve your living costs.  Now that's affordable.

OK, I am a little confused. I have read the info properly now and see that these units are to sell - not to rent - but having said that, the info towards the end of the document talks about potential weekly rental of $400/week. Not exactly sure how this works - is that rental information intended for potential buyers who may buy to rent it out?

I would think $400/week rent for one of those units would be pretty competitive for that area. I think I would rather rent one at that price, than rent a scruffy traditional house for about the same - speaking as a single person. But yes, I do agree that it is overpriced to buy.

They'll probably end up becoming emergency housing.  
If you were prepared to pay $400 a week for somewhere to live, you could just team up with a friend and rent something really nice in Merivale  ;D 
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/rent/canterbury/christchurch-city/st-albans/listing/4006407492

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/slowest-auckland-house-sales-in-month-for-quarter-century-barfoot-thompson/NOBPSS4SCFFWTN7RZXDL5C2PJQ/

Yes interesting. Also notice rents seem to be on the way back up as landlords pass on increased costs.

Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 05, 2023, 05:49 PMYes interesting. Also notice rents seem to be on the way back up as landlords pass on increased costs.

Rent increases are now weighted to the Nov-March period due to the Labour rent freeze for six months in 2020 and the law that says you can only put rents up every 12 months.  

These youngsters have only ever known good times.    When the custard really starts hitting the fan they will wish they had sold the Yacht as well.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/131427521/townhouse-developer-selling-his-luxury-cars-ditches-private-jet-travel.

Australia once again showing how useless the FMA in NZ is - this is what should have happened to all those promoters of real estate investment funds who were selling the funds to little old grannies living in over 60's units.  Instead all they got was a letter.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/westpac-banned-from-selling-three-funds-over-legal-breach-20230317-p5cszf

The corporate watchdog has banned Westpac from selling three funds, which it owns through BT and are worth a combined $4.2 billion, to retail investors just months before their acquisition by Mercer (https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/westpac-offloads-superannuation-arm-to-mercer-20220526-p5aop0) is processed.
BT had failed to provide enough information about the three products to meet its obligations under laws designed to make sure financial products only targeted consumers (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5b5fq) they would be appropriate for, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said.

Sales slump (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/486522/housing-market-sees-biggest-sales-slump-in-40-years)

 Auckland, not quite world leading but in the running. (https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/03/22/auckland-ranked-seventh-least-affordable-housing-market/)

 National recognizes the problem ... but delivers only empty jargon as a solution.   (https://www.national.org.nz/speech_to_property_council_residential_development_summit)

Feb's figures:
Housing sales  = down
Housing prices = down
New house listings = down
Unsold houses = up

Nothing here to suggest the corner has been turned.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Mar 25, 2023, 11:17 AMSales slump (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/486522/housing-market-sees-biggest-sales-slump-in-40-years)

 Auckland, not quite world leading but in the running. (https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/03/22/auckland-ranked-seventh-least-affordable-housing-market/)

 National recognizes the problem ... but delivers only empty jargon as a solution.   (https://www.national.org.nz/speech_to_property_council_residential_development_summit)

Feb's figures:
Housing sales  = down
Housing prices = down
New house listings = down
Unsold houses = up

Nothing here to suggest the corner has been turned.

Hmm - who said that the corner has been turned already? All economists I heard talked about a likely recovery mid to late 2023. So, what is your point?

So far it looks to me we are well on plan. ... And remember - only when the screeming and chest beating of scare mongerers mixed with the squeeking of property speculators who bought a deal in late 2021 is at its loudest, only then we will know that we reached the bottom.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 25, 2023, 05:14 PMHmm - who said that the corner has been turned already? All economists I heard talked about a likely recovery mid to late 2023. So, what is your point?

So far it looks to me we are well on plan. ... And remember - only when the screeming and chest beating of scare mongerers mixed with the squeeking of property speculators who bought a deal in late 2021 is at its loudest, only then we will know that we reached the bottom.

The point is the thread heading is, "Residential - Boom or Bust?"  February data suggests more of the later. Any recovery this year is increasingly an optimistic guess.   I'm don't think that lower mortgage rates or the immigration gates opening would be enough to stimulate the market enough; and neither of those is a given.  My money is on this going longer and deeper. 

I'm seeing big rent increases in Auckland market. $100 a week not uncommon as owners pass on costs.

Families forced to take on borders to help with the rent.

New legislation has also resulted in some groups of people being locked out of the market as landlords and property managers become very picky.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/bay-of-plenty-rentals-locals-living-in-cars-garages-motorhomes/TLXZRMSIQZB5FGUZTT52YD4XHU/

Houses prices are going back up in Australia and USA.  So I wouldnt bet on them going down further in NZ.  Of course, the economy could be really stuffed here and immigration non-existent (because everyone has gone to Australia) so who knows. But that would mean that the rest of the world is in recovery mode while NZ just collapses into a third world state.

Quote from: KW on Apr 04, 2023, 06:51 PMHouses prices are going back up in Australia and USA.  So I wouldnt bet on them going down further in NZ.  Of course, the economy could be really stuffed here and immigration non-existent (because everyone has gone to Australia) so who knows. But that would mean that the rest of the world is in recovery mode while NZ just collapses into a third world state.

I wouldn't "bet on it" either, and I'm sure you and other vastly experienced investors don't do "bets" either.

We're quite capable of monitoring the market and the share prices, looking for entry or accumulations. There's no doubt that REIT's are well below NTA, so purchasing precisely isn't really a perfect science anymore, the trigger as some others have said is inflation topping, CPI topping and shares pricing in the future.

Our FA says these are still successful profitable and sustainable payers of returns to shareholders, so the only real trigger to further exposure is the share prices which I am certain many have eyes on, as we may be seeing a once in a generation opportunity to buy low.

Or not quite just yet. No experienced investor is going to throw a decent wad at this on what might turn out to be a fake out, these are the times when we let the chart do the talking, and exercise some patience until it happens.

Picking the bottom price of SP's is a losers game .. buying sustained optimism is better than buying what we think is the end of pessimism, even if it costs us a few % returns in the long run.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43359
$930K at the peak for one of these units, lowest previous was $800K in December 2022, sold on the weekend at auction for only $641K. 

Has the worm turned?

"Barfoot & Thompson sold 86 per cent more residential properties last month than in February in a pattern its boss says is a sign of a recovery. "
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/barfoot-thompsons-monthly-residential-sales-up-86-home-buyer-confidence-back/WRRIK5YWIRFCLFKF4JL7JWLVTI/

"Thursday's auctions helped top off a record month for Harcourts Papanui which achieved the highest number of sales written on the board ever – even slightly above the peak of the Christchurch property market mid-last year."
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/vendor-stunned-as-quake-damaged-home-sells-for-143m-200k-above-the-reserve-43332

Depends who is writing the headline covering the same information.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/120649/barfoot-thompsons-march-sales-down-third-compared-year-ago
I think there's still another 10-20% fall in this market to play itself out and the RBNZ's move last week is supportive of that downtrend continuing.  Such a fall as I am suggesting only gets us back to pre covid level's when houses were already very expensive with the national median at ~ $600K.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 10, 2023, 12:44 PMDepends who is writing the headline covering the same information.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/120649/barfoot-thompsons-march-sales-down-third-compared-year-ago
I think there's still another 10-20% fall in this market to play itself out and the RBNZ's move last week is supportive of that downtrend continuing.  Such a fall as I am suggesting only gets us back to pre covid level's when houses were already very expensive with the national median at ~ $600K.

We should not forget though that $600k in 2024 is not the same value as $600k in 2019 used to represent. Which means - if house prices fall in 2024 back to pre-Covid prices, they will be (compared to the prices of other goods, but as well compared to the average wage) much cheaper to buy than they used to be in 2019.

Good point.  The National median price was $762K in February 2023 so another 20% down from there, if that happens, would take it down to $609K which would indeed be materially lower in real inflation adjusted terms that prior to Covid in February 2020.
file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report_February%202023%20(1).pdf 
REINZ stat's for March should be out later this week or early next week and will be an interesting read.
Last weeks extremely hawkish move by the RBNZ caught most people off guard and I understand banks are now stress testing mortgage applicants at 8.5 - 9.0%  !

Could see this coming.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/cost-of-living-number-of-households-spending-over-two-years-in-emergency-housing-doubles-in-past-year/ZT67M7EZ6NDGPD3RRHIDR24QEA/

Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 10, 2023, 03:13 PMWe should not forget though that $600k in 2024 is not the same value as $600k in 2019 used to represent. Which means - if house prices fall in 2024 back to pre-Covid prices, they will be (compared to the prices of other goods, but as well compared to the average wage) much cheaper to buy than they used to be in 2019.

Much cheaper yes but vastly more expensive to afford the mortgage with interest rates where they are now compared to 2019.
Article the other day in the Herald saying on a per capita basis where interest rates are now housing In Auckland is the 7th dearest of any city in the world.
If people can't afford them and huge supply keeps coming to the market the price, logically, can only go one way.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/120803/high-numbers-new-homes-are-being-completed-auckland-and-theyre-taking-less-time

Not sure if this has been reported in NZ Media or not

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/mortgage-defaults-jump-in-housing-bellwether-new-zealand-20230418-p5d19j
"Signs of stress are emerging in New Zealand's housing market, with the number of people behind on loan repayments jumping as soaring interest rates bite.
Mortgages in arrears rose 23 per cent in February from a year earlier to 18,900, Auckland-based credit bureau Centrix said on Tuesday. That equates to 1.29 per cent of overall mortgages, the highest since March 2020.
"Our latest data show mortgage arrears climbing for the seventh consecutive month, which could point to many being unable to service these higher mortgage rates – a difficult situation for anyone to be in," said Centrix managing director Keith McLaughlin. "We are really starting to see some hardship."

Great news for landlords. Neighbours  next to a troublesome property will be happy.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-will-reinstate-no-cause-evictions-says-regulations-hurting-landlords-and-driving-up-rental-prices/5MCMPXX7XNFIPP2HUPMW4SN5J4/

I've noticed the Williams Corp boys are busy pulling their own money out of the WC investment funds.
12 May - $500,000
1 May - $225,000
31 Mar - $605,000

If the funds are sound, why are they sucking their own cash out of it.  Bit on the nose considering they have prevented other investors from getting their money back for a year on the basis that the company needs to hang on to the money

"The development business said it needs to keep the money for longer, documentation allows extend timeframes, and it was "prudent" to do so." https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/williams-corporations-1524m-investor-funds-six-monthly-withdrawals-extended-to-annually/YPVZBD3KN5FC3OEGMMOFBERIDE/

"Safe as Houses" obviously doesnt mean "Safe as Townhouses" LOL

As we are leading the charge for investigative journalism here I note the Invest With Us section of the www.williamscorporation.co.nz seems to have been deleted

It used to have the pdfs and investment details of their various funds.

Tick tock tick tock for Williams and Duval et al

Quote from: Crackity on May 13, 2023, 03:24 PMAs we are leading the charge for investigative journalism here I note the Invest With Us section of the www.williamscorporation.co.nz seems to have been deleted

It used to have the pdfs and investment details of their various funds.

Tick tock tick tock for Williams and Duval et al

Maybe the market for selling permanent residency to Singaporean's is dead.  
https://www.williamscorporation.co.nz/how-singaporeans-obtain-new-zealand-residency/

Quote from: Crackity on May 13, 2023, 03:24 PMAs we are leading the charge for investigative journalism here I note the Invest With Us section of the www.williamscorporation.co.nz seems to have been deleted

It used to have the pdfs and investment details of their various funds.

Tick tock tick tock for Williams and Duval et al

I got an email from WC Capital on 3rd May looking for investment funds .Made it look like a Ponzi to me . I wondered how they could still be taking money when they can't repay a good deal of people that want their money out .
 

Quote from: Stoploss on May 13, 2023, 09:05 PMI got an email from WC Capital on 3rd May looking for investment funds .Made it look like a Ponzi to me . I wondered how

I am getting spammed with ads for their "Williams Academy". 

 pivot.jpg

Quote from: KW on May 17, 2023, 11:29 AMI am getting spammed with ads for their "Williams Academy".

 pivot.jpg

I was going to reply to that one and enquire. If you can't repay your investors
why do you think you can teach anyone anything ....

I think the market is turning. In South Auckland anyway.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/it-was-a-swarm-44-bids-for-740k-leaky-home-80-bids-for-south-auckland-bungalow-43598

Slight signs of life in the mortgage market according to this:
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/123221/reserve-bank-figures-show-seasonally-adjusted-basis-there-may-be-slight

Spoke to agent yesterday who works the South Auckland market who said the market is without doubt improving. Early days but more people at open homes, multi offers common, and prices improving. Rents also going up with shortages in some areas.

IMHO equilibrium price or sustainable price for property has not reached yet. Moreover, wage inflation, high energy,  raw material prices could lead to stagflation . Purcahsing power is coming down worldwide as a result of on going inflation. Energy  prices have gone up again. The Labour market still remains strong, but rising cost of doing business could lead to job cuts world wide.  It's very scary to see the  global property chart for the past 10 years. What goes up will eventully will come down.

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/pacific/new-zealand/home-price-trends

Sydney market  (https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/the-sydney-suburbs-where-property-prices-are-already-at-record-highs-20230912-p5e40n.html) is firing. 

Just came back through Auckland international airport. The queueing for non-residents was all the way to carousel five. I'm  talking maybe 500 people. Lots of them with piles of suitcases and I'm picking future Kiwis. I think house prices are indeed going to rise a lot more than people think.

Net passenger movements has swung back to positive recently, although its more of a decrease in people leaving than a sudden increase in people arriving.  July was massive, and Sept is setting up to be another positive month.  This would align with the recent sharp increase in rents, and I would expect more in the future as vacancy rates fall.  Will we get 30% rent increases like in Australia? 

Jan     9,199

Feb   58,997

Mar  -24,355

Apr  -34,339

May -33,250

Jun  -15,930

Jul    46,522

Aug  -7,203

Sept  9,616  (YTD)

The drop in people leaving is likely one of the reasons for the low listings at the moment which will help support prices.  However, unlike Australia which allows temporary residents to buy houses, in NZ even those coming in on permanent resident visas have to wait 12 months before buying.  But that 12 month lag time will be up for those PRs who arrived Sept-Dec last year when the borders reopened. 

Combined with a more positive outlook as NACT looks set to win, and its likely the bottom is in.  A few risks do remain - I think post election the RBNZ will raise rates again, and when NACT revoke the 5-10 Brightline tax there will be a lot of financially stressed investors who will take the opportunity to sell up, especially since Nats have said they won't immediately restore interest deductibility. But that's next years problem  ;D

Independent economist Tony Alexander released his latest monthly Mortgage.co.nz survey results from mortgage brokers this morning, showing a surge in inquiries from rental property investors ahead of the election on October 14. Alexander said they were seeing strong population growth from migration, rent growth and a rise in residential land values, along with polls showing a higher chance of a change of Government.

This article states that our government reduced the number of rentals with their policies and increased the number of people on the state waiting list.  Tenants pay the price.

https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/350085397/unfair-price-landlords-and-tenants-have-paid-misguided-tax-policy

Chch biggest home builder has just put a development project up for sale.  It was supposed to be 61 townhouses, and they had been selling them OTP but obviously have not had enough presales, or are able to get financing for the build without them.  There are not many sites like this in Chch, and this is a primo location.  Times are clearly tough, even in Chch's booming market.  It was purchased for $12M in 2021, will be interesting to see how much it sells for now.

https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/properties/stunning-merivale-development-site-with-scale/nzl-60-72-papanui-road-and-51-onslow-street-merivale-christchurch-city-canterbury/nzl67025640

Herald says downturn is over


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-and-auckland-house-prices-analyst-corelogic-says-downturn-is-officially-over/HDDXRPITOFC4XGDFDG627DMMZM/

Quote from: Shareguy on Nov 01, 2023, 06:32 AMHerald says downturn is over


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-and-auckland-house-prices-analyst-corelogic-says-downturn-is-officially-over/HDDXRPITOFC4XGDFDG627DMMZM/

Love it when 'green shoots' turn into 'downturn officially over'

Gosh Tony says house prices to increase 10 percent 2024 and 15 percent 2025.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-expect-house-prices-to-rise-10-in-2024-and-15-in-2025-44546

Mass mortgagee sale: Two empty new Takapuna apartment blocks

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mass-mortgagee-sale-two-empty-new-takapuna-apartment-blocks/IWODZIPGHZBWHGSM2LAM2MXXEA/

15 apartments by the look of it.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/11/housing-market-showing-increasing-signs-of-life-property-values-lift-third-month-in-a-row-qv-house-price-index.html

Buddle Findley predicts a post election property boom:

https://businessdesk.co.nz/sponsored/post-election-property-boom-predicted (probably paywalled)

They expect the biggest impact on build to rent and commercial. Might be a good time to hold some of these REITS like KPG or ARG :)

Though they have not yet allowed interest on buildings in the P&L as the NAT cabinet is full of lawyers and they dont as a whole know their accounting theory... except barristers with double degrees and they do exist.

which means they may not return to previous highs may be ARG get to 1.20 if they cant increase the DIV as NTA will have to come down if they keep playing with numbers.

Laywers dont believe in transaction models being anything other than thin AIR with a value denoted in currency back by something they can write down on paper....

and that is why bitcoin is still here becuase transactions on blockchain dont need lawyers to validate them,
 

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-extra-difficulties-for-renters-lie-just-around-the-corner-45243

•   Yesterday's REINZ data for April continues to point to a tepid recovery in housing, with the 3rd YoY increase in median prices following 19 months of negative prints. Lead indicators are generally positive, although high inventories and low affordability should cap upside over the balance of the year. With sector valuations still close to decade lows, even a modest recovery in the housing market should support the RV sector outperforming in 2024. Nationwide prices +1% YoY to $790k, driven by AKL +6% to $1,050k and NZ ex-AKL flat at $700k. Prices were down -1% across NZ month on month. HPI, which adjusts for changes in mix was also down -1% MoM nationwide. When seasonally adjusted for the usual April tailwinds this was down -2% MoM. Nationwide house prices are now down -15% from Nov-21 peak. Days to sell down -3 days YoY to 43 which is a key lead indicator for sales volumes. Sales up 25% YoY to 5.6k nationwide which is a key lead indicator for prices. Stock levels continue to rise, up 2% MoM and 18% YoY to 33.8k.

https://prendos.co.nz/an-optimists-outlook-at-the-auckland-property-market-in-2024/

Hope no one here was invested in this.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fma-gets-court-to-put-du-val-group-into-interim-receivership/KN26PFDCKJDWFNTWUK25NJS5RE/

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 02, 2024, 12:30 PMHope no one here was invested in this.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fma-gets-court-to-put-du-val-group-into-interim-receivership/KN26PFDCKJDWFNTWUK25NJS5RE/

Well, aren't these the people who asked for new funds with a history of parading luxury cars and clothing and not returning funds to their holders??

Anybody reading stocktalk in time would have refrained from investing ...

https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=283.msg17380#msg17380

but even without this background info did it always appear to me as one of the best predictable company failures in decades :);

Insert from Stuff

The average return of listed NZX stocks over the past 10 years was 68%, but the NZX20 had a weighted average return over the same period of 262%with a median return of 152%.
The property market returned 99%.
Lister said the NZX All Index, which covered the whole market, had recorded about 9.5% a year over the decade, or about 160% over the period.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350407650/new-zealand-company-saw-its-share-price-jump-900-year

The rental market in Auckland is the hardest I have seen it in 20 odd years.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/131338/trade-me-property-says-residential-landlords-may-need-reduce-their-asking-rents-due

Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 19, 2024, 12:31 PMThe rental market in Auckland is the hardest I have seen it in 20 odd years.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/131338/trade-me-property-says-residential-landlords-may-need-reduce-their-asking-rents-due

Good - real estate (no matter whether you buy or rent) is still ways too expensive based on a market producing upmarket housing and ignoring that way the bulk of the market which needs housing but can't afford to pay upmarket housing.

Looks like we haven't learned a lot since the French revolution with the famous "Why don't they eat cake" citation of the last French Queen. We produce too much cake (upmarket housing) many can't afford and neglect to produce as well bread (affordable housing) people could afford to buy.

We live in an area with generally high quality (and high price) housing. Not a typical rent out area, but too many of the houses unoccupied and for sale - at prices unaffordable to most people. Owners prefer to leave them unoccupied for months (and some for years) rather than dropping the sales price.

On the other hand - number of rent-out caravans increasing. This situation is neither good for the people who have to live there on a permanent basis, nor for the community as a whole.
 
Will be interesting whether our politicians have the brains to resolve this issue ... if not - the French people found during the revolution an alternative use for them ...

Now some analysts say housing market recovery cannot expect until 2026. Rental market is also not going to recover anytime soon.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-rental-markets-dramatic-turn-why-landlords-are-worried-47246

Quote from: Mr Cashflow on Apr 18, 2025, 11:29 AMNow some analysts say housing market recovery cannot expect until 2026. Rental market is also not going to recover anytime soon.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-rental-markets-dramatic-turn-why-landlords-are-worried-47246

I agree. The rental market in Auckland is terrible. Just dropped rent by $50 PW on empty property. There is so much supply and not enough renters.  One property manager I spoke to said he is getting two rental homes a week giving notice that are going to Australia.

It's going to be interesting on what's happens with house prices. The experts are saying up this year.....I'm not so sure.

Boom or bust? sideways is how I see it, maybe keeping up with inflation currently running at 2.5%, (flat in real terms) maybe not, (slowly declining in real terms).  Interesting what you say about the rental market Shareguy.  Sounds grim.  I guess a lot less new immigrants coming here.  Situation unlikely to change anytime soon I reckon.

We're in no hurry to buy a holiday home in Northland....been looking online for a while and happy to keep our powder dry until something comes up that my wife and I agree on and it's at the right price.  We're not seeing any positive price momentum up north in the area's we're looking at.

 

Yes given the high levels of uncertainty I can't see house prices increasing by over 6 percent which is the average of the banks predictions.

However there are some good buys to be had with some forced sellers. We are starting to look after staying out for the last 10 years. Finance approved just in case.

Sobering stuff.  https://www.interest.co.nz/property/132891/housing-market-not-its-usual-self-it-prepares-onset-winter  I'm putting that fancy Northland holiday home on the backburner as I'm almost certain it'll be cheaper next year.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 26, 2025, 11:38 AMSobering stuff.  https://www.interest.co.nz/property/132891/housing-market-not-its-usual-self-it-prepares-onset-winter  I'm putting that fancy Northland holiday home on the backburner as I'm almost certain it'll be cheaper next year.

One less year to enjoy your holiday home.....

Quote from: FatTed on Apr 27, 2025, 02:50 PMOne less year to enjoy your holiday home.....

Swings and roundabouts though.  Pull say $1.2m out of the market to fund the holiday home and that means there's a lot less disposable income to splurge on life's other luxuries.

Well ended up buying another house. A cross lease that we plan to convert to fee simple. I see opportunity. Only time will tell if I'm right.

Quote from: Shareguy on May 14, 2025, 06:05 AMWell ended up buying another house. A cross lease that we plan to convert to fee simple. I see opportunity. Only time will tell if I'm right.

You can't, unless ze other cross lease holders on ze land agree (?)

RB

Quote from: Red Baron on May 14, 2025, 12:11 PMYou can't, unless ze other cross lease holders on ze land agree (?)

RB

Yes you're right but we already own that one as well.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/133592/anyone-expecting-notable-increases-property-values-we-push-further-2025-continues

Looks like really hard work for those looking to sell.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-property-investors-caught-in-a-trap-47767

Huge drops in asking prices.  Drops of 3-5% depending on region are remarkable in just one month.
There's no FOMO.  Buyers know they have HEAPS of choice and prices are dropping.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/133994/stock-levels-high-asking-prices-down-realestateconz-june

Quote from: Basil on Jul 01, 2025, 08:37 PMHuge drops in asking prices.  Drops of 3-5% depending on region are remarkable in just one month.
There's no FOMO.  Buyers know they have HEAPS of choice and prices are dropping.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/133994/stock-levels-high-asking-prices-down-realestateconz-june

Yes the market is well down from its covid high. Plenty of choice. In Auckland the results are skewed with the over supply of townhouses.   I think the market has turned.

No worries as the much lauded Kelly at Westpac says house prices will go up 4% in 2025 and then growth to return to average rates of growth next year with prices up more than 6% in 2026

So looking good.

I can't see much - if any - property growth for the next few years.  It is really tough times out there for most kiwis. 

Good news for councils and rate payers but owners of leaking/defective homes will suffer big time.

The PM and Building Minister Chris Penk have announced two major amendments to the Building Act aimed at (i) speeding up NZ's sluggish consenting system, (ii) easing the cost burden on councils/ratepayers, and (iii) ultimately lowering build costs (with the average standalone house in NZ ~50% more expensive than in Australia). https://www.nzherald.co.nz

Proportionate liability: The current joint-and-several framework will be scrapped, with liability shared more evenly across builders, designers, suppliers, and engineers. Councils will no longer shoulder 100% of risk, which should reduce defensive consenting practices and ease ratepayer exposure (particularly when it comes to defective building work

Got to be good for the housing market.

Interest rates on the decline and now this

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/reserve-bank-to-ease-mortgage-lending-restrictions-from-december/3UZYVO3WHZAFBF34LH33TBSKQ4/

Property data for September 2025 has been released this morning showing slight price growth MoM nationally (+0.8% or +1.3% once seasonally adjusted). Days to sell at 43 still sits above the 10 year average of 40, but still down 6 days YoY. National sales were up 3.1% year-on-year to 6,346 sales, and New Zealand, excluding Auckland, saw a rise of 7.5%, to 4,421. https://www.reinz.co.nz

I wonder which stocks would benefit from a improving property market🤫