Has been on my watch list for sometime. Have never been a holder. The share price has continued to drop. My share broker says don't touch it. The current price is a huge drop from the listing price.
The Australian side seems to be doing well making up for the low growth in NZ. Unsecured loans and the potential recession concerns me though.
Insert from nbr today
The latest facility meant Harmoney had now almost fully transitioned away from being a peer-to-peer lender, Stevens said.
"Within a short span of three years, we have accelerated this to be over 90% warehouse-funded."
Harmoney now has total warehouse facilities of $950m, of which $330m remains undrawn. The new facility provided a lower cost of funding to optimise growth, he said.
The December changes to New Zealand's Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA) had affected all consumer financiers, Harmoney said in April.
"The government is currently reviewing the impact of these changes on lenders, and intends to make further changes to curb any unintended consequences," it told the market.
Harmoney's model supplies unsecured personal loans of up to $70,000 entirely online.
In February, Stevens said Harmoney had done a lot of work on its systems to prepare for the CCCFA changes.
"But, obviously, there are some things that have occurred in the changes that weren't ideal and everyone's grappling with that."
Growing Australian book
Harmoney's Australian business is set to overtake its New Zealand lending in 2022, the company has said.
Australian new customer originations were up 218% in the March quarter, compared with the same time last year.
However, New Zealand new customer originations were down 7% in the same period.
Did your broker articulate his reasons why?
All he said some time ago, was he new someone who worked their. I did not go into it anymore than that.
Pretty strong growth in todays update, recession fears aside it is looking pretty attractive at the current price. Even NZ originations had decent growth, and Australian originations over 100% growth. Arrears still at historic lows which is interesting, wonder if the magic algo can sustain that in a recession :o
Just love the NIM.[net interest margin]
My history in the book trade installed into me the importance of margins.
Time and space spent in low margin business was the cause of most book shop failures.
The old saying "why bother" saved me a lot of wasted time and effort.
Banking and most businesses the same principals apply.
It does bother me slightly that they say "cash NPAT profitable" but don't quantify how much. They need to get as much positive news out there as possible and leaving it vague like that just causes doubting of the growth story. I'm not a holder but would like to be, only thing causing my hesitation is recession fears. I imagine that their algo is a form/makes use of a neural network, and neural networks are only as good as their training data. If their algo has been trained on data from good times it might do pretty poorly during bad times, especially if whatever patterns it discovers in the good times do not hold true during bad times.
Share price on fire today - rewarding the great numbers
Back to 2 bucks before we know it
"Harmoney also operates with a positive statutory cash flow from operations. Harmoney also holds
unrestricted cash at bank of $35m at 30 June 2022, up $3m from 31 December 2021."
This statement continues to bother me. Are they implying that this 3 million was akin to free cash flow?
After the come down from the market update this is looking extremely tempting as a high risk high reward play. Even if the AUS loan book growth slows from here on, it would be slowing from such a high base (over 100%) that it would hardly matter. Now that they are "cash flow positive" they just need another decent year and this will start seriously printing money.
Caution is warranted with this high risk company in my opinion. The trend is not your friend, just bring up a graph and have a good look.. From my days in the GFC as an investor in some finance companies unsecured lending in a recession ends very badly. Just ask investors in finance companies that lost $6 Billion during and after the GFC !
I know they will have written sophisticated front end software programs to sort the wheat from the chaff but all they have as security is people's credit rating and if I am right we are facing an unprecedented cost of living crisis. I think FY23 and FY24 is where the rubber meets the road and we find out if their margins are sufficient to cover loan defaults.
If they can get through the next 2 years successfully and profitably I would say their systems have a pretty good chance of working going forward from there.
Seeing as the share price has halved this year the market seems to be rating them a 50/50 chance of success which seems about right to me but I am too old and well fed to bother gambling on what appears to be little better than backing red or black on the roulette wheel.
I guess for punters that are determined to have a flutter they could shift the green zeros on the roulette wheel in their favour by carefully following the TA and waiting for the confirmed downtrend to end and placing their bet when there's a break up through the 100 day moving average into a confirmed uptrend, (assuming that ever happens which is not necessarily a safe assumption by any means). More cautious punters might have a half sized bet on a 100 day MA upwards break and put the rest of the flutter on when it breaks up through the 200 day MA.
In the meantime staying out and letting the well established downtrend play itself fully out makes profound common sense in terms of capital preservation and risk management to me.
Basil ....HMY have a high NIM so no real worries
That's what about four dozen finance companies that collapsed thought in the GFC as they flushed six billion of investors money down the toilet.. Just as well this time it's different...or is it ?
Quote from: Basil on Jul 26, 2022, 07:12 PMThat's what about four dozen finance companies that collapsed thought in the GFC as they flushed six billion of investors money down the toilet.. Just as well this time it's different...or is it ?
This time will be different, an artificial intelligence will be doing the flushing
Quote from: Plata on Jul 26, 2022, 07:30 PMThis time will be different, an artificial intelligence will be doing the flushing
All those finance companies that failed in the GFC thought they had robust credit checking and lending procedures designed by very smart people.
Wonder who wrote all the software programming, protocols and algorithm's driving that A.I. ? I suppose they are very smart people too. Hope they're not young bucks that weren't even around in the GFC so never had the chance to learn from the school of hard knocks.
Clearly the market thinks this time its going to be different...opps hang on a minute, maybe it doesn't ?
"I visualise a time when we will be to robots what dogs are to humans, and I'm rooting for the machines." ....somebody I've forgotten
Supposedly got some hidden meaning re AI
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 26, 2022, 07:56 PM"I visualise a time when we will be to robots what dogs are to humans, and I'm rooting for the machines." ....somebody I've forgotten
Supposedly got some hidden meaning re AI
I was hoping robots will be the new dogs & do the bidding of lazy humans as they worry about global warming credit checks & woke liberalism etc.
Quote from: Auto Rower on Jul 27, 2022, 07:19 PMI was hoping robots will be the new dogs & do the bidding of lazy humans as they worry about global warming credit checks & woke liberalism etc.
Apparently dogs have been warning us humans about climate change and now they pissed off because we haven't been taking heed of them.
Wettest Winter I can ever recall. Your dogs are probably just as (SAD) sick of the endless rain and high winds as this dog is.
https://mentalhealth.org.nz/conditions/condition/seasonal-affective-disorder
HMY share price back to where it was before that outstanding announcement
What's up guys - maybe it was Basil warnings about being wary about unsecured lending.
Don't know if this means much re HMY but interesting from BusinessDesk -
The number of credit accounts in arrears was up 14% in July compared to July last year but down slightly from May with vehicle arrears beginning to creep up, the latest data from credit reporting company Centrix showed.
Products like mortgages and vehicle loans – secured lending products – are usually the last credit payments people let slip, which indicates we could be starting to see signs of financial stress," said Centrix managing director Keith McLaughlin.
And
Overall, demand for new credit products was down 6% in July with mortgage applications down 29% on July last year while new mortgage lending was down 18%.
Always pleasing a company going against trend.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/396176
Pretty spooky how little impact the positive update had on HMY. Makes me think it would be a dooms day sp event if they released anything negative :o
At IPO, Stevens said about the dual NZX listing, "It's a big part of our heritage. Our staff are based here, and we feel that it's the right thing to do." What's changed?
Director buying 20,000 on market after yesterdays Q1 update.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HMY/400837/381532.pdf
Not a lot but better than the previous holding of 0!
Might need to move this topic to ASX ;)
No reprieve on the ASX, how low can this thing go! What an absolute disaster for IPO holders. Could be worth looking at if it stays this low and the full year is good.
I looked at this Plata. While Aust growth looks good, risk with unsecured loans and software big concern.
Quote from: Plata on Nov 08, 2022, 11:39 AMNo reprieve on the ASX, how low can this thing go! What an absolute disaster for IPO holders. Could be worth looking at if it stays this low and the full year is good.
My "Beagles", thoughts were posted in the other forum in the first 6 pages in February 2021, (maybe have a look if you are interested), when the stock was ~ $A2.50. I had a look at their full financials' the other day and I wouldn't touch this with a barge pole. In my view it is highly likely they will need a major new transfusion of capital in the next two years, or they will go under.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 11, 2022, 12:14 PMMy "Beagles", thoughts were posted in the other forum in the first 6 pages in February 2021, (maybe have a look if you are interested), when the stock was ~ $A2.50. I had a look at their full financials' the other day and I wouldn't touch this with a barge pole. In my view it is highly likely they will need a major new transfusion of capital in the next two years, or they will go under.
Their arrears rate is pretty low from memory, are you expecting they will experience some tough times soon and get wiped out or just need it to continue growing?
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20220831/02561283.pdf?uid=A7E6DE114F3E04474D4FA5452346F325204800003EE9937EDAE9E540093D250091850000&ppv=
Page 35 is quite interesting. Negative eps of 20 cps.
If they keep going that way they will need a major capital raise or will go broke.
ITs clear I don't believe in the business model...I said exactly that in February 2021 when the share prcie was $A2.50 I do not believe the interest rates they charge are sufficient for unsecured lending. In a cost of living crisis / recession no matter how much you provision for bad and doubtful debts it's never enough. I see that impairment expense took 35% of gross income. Hmmm
Quote from: Basil on Nov 12, 2022, 07:08 PMhttp://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20220831/02561283.pdf?uid=A7E6DE114F3E04474D4FA5452346F325204800003EE9937EDAE9E540093D250091850000&ppv=
Page 35 is quite interesting. Negative eps of 20 cps.
If they keep going that way they will need a major capital raise or will go broke.
ITs clear I don't believe in the business model...I said exactly that in February 2021 when the share prcie was $A2.50 I do not believe the interest rates they charge are sufficient for unsecured lending. In a cost of living crisis / recession no matter how much you provision for bad and doubtful debts it's never enough. I see that impairment expense took 35% of gross income. Hmmm
Yes that is quite interesting. Arrears at 0.45% but incurred losses at 3.6%.... Does that imply that most people that are behind on payments end up defaulting? Why do they push the arrears number so hard other than to make things look good?
October 18th update.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/hmy.asx-2A1406634/
Going gang busters.
Love the over 10% net interest margin and low impairements.
Hi Lorraina,
Do you understand the difference between statutory and proforma loan book.
Hugh difference in 2021.Why?
Seems like they may have New loans totalling $55mil in October. $230mil undrawn compared to $220mil + $65mil in Q1 reporting.
Might find some interesting stuff in this from kpmg
Good year had my most but dark clouds on horizon ...all gets a bit boring these dark clouds comments eh
KPMG's Financial Institutions Performance Survey.
https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/nz/pdf/2022/12/2022-non-banks-fips.pdf
Up 25% today! Third biggest increase on the ASX! On no news but low volume, $6.5k. Still a wins, a win. And any win this one is welcome.
Think the last quarter update was on 1 Feb last year so not long to go.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 05, 2023, 07:54 PMUp 25% today! Third biggest increase on the ASX! On no news but low volume, $6.5k. Still a wins, a win. And any win this one is welcome.
I close to doubled my position @48c on account of the disconnect between the share price and management discussion.
Still need $1.05 to break even.
Quote from: Clearasmud on Jan 08, 2023, 03:44 PMI close to doubled my position @48c on account of the disconnect between the share price and management discussion.
Still need $1.05 to break even.
Hopefully one day shares might be $2.10 and then you be happy as
Wonder what value Heartland will put on their shares at half year?
They had them on their books at 71 centscat June .......another 'fair value adjustment' coming up
But many would say it's not fair to make a fair value adjustment when current price is not fair in first place
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 08, 2023, 03:57 PMHopefully one day shares might be $2.10 and then you be happy as
Wonder what value Heartland will put on their shares at half year?
They had them on their books at 71 centscat June .......another 'fair value adjustment' coming up
But many would say it's not fair to make a fair value adjustment when current price is not fair in first place
Yes things need to change, again.
A speculative investment that I hope in time will pay increasing dividends and reach a sp double Ipo price.
Quote from: Clearasmud on Jan 08, 2023, 06:28 PMA speculative investment that I hope in time will pay increasing dividends and reach a sp double Ipo price.
I would be happy with a SP of $1.50
Quote from: Forrestdun on Jan 09, 2023, 01:06 PMI would be happy with a SP of $1.50
jeez, was over 3 bucks once
And in mid 2021 went from 120 to over 200 in a few weeks ... that was exciting period
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 09, 2023, 01:12 PMjeez, was over 3 bucks once
And in mid 2021 went from 120 to over 200 in a few weeks ... that was exciting period
.
Up another 6% to .60 this morning and a bit more volume too. Still a long way to go for me to see black on this one.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 09, 2023, 01:12 PMjeez, was over 3 bucks once
And in mid 2021 went from 120 to over 200 in a few weeks ... that was exciting period
Just keeping my hopes low so there is lots of room to be pleasantly surprised :)
Yowser! What a neat update... Aussie going gangbusters. "Reaffirm FY23 outlook, including significant growth in Cash NPAT."
Hit an all time low after I increased my holding by 10%, sounds about right.
Quote from: Forrestdun on Mar 15, 2023, 05:21 PMHit an all time low after I increased my holding by 10%, sounds about right.
On reasonable turnover too (well for HMY anyway) - it looks very cheap but there is also no end in sight for this downward plunge.
One of those shares where I think I may have missed something.?
Announcements are positive.
Will continue to hold,as I love their NIM and their growth rate..
Quote from: lorraina on Mar 15, 2023, 07:03 PMOne of those shares where I think I may have missed something.?
Announcements are positive.
Will continue to hold,as I love their NIM and their growth rate..
Snap - same. Grossly overpriced at IPO but I thought was good buying when I got in the 80's. Must be spectacular now - but I'm not averaging down.
New all time low of 35.5 cents per share. Market cap of around $38mil and the business had $30mil cash on hand at December. Someone really wants out....
Trading update out, good read
HARMONEY ON TRACK TO DELIVER OUTLOOK FOR FY23
• Origination and loan book growth
• Net interest margin to be maintained at ~10%
• Cash NPAT Growth
• Targeting 20% Cash ROE in the medium term
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02658504-2A1445627?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
:( No love from the market thou, no sp movement on yesterday and only a few pips above all time low.
Looking to test lows again. Seems very lost and unloved on the winds of the ASX. Harmoney roads must a man walk down before they call him a man...
Another excellent announcement but the sp has only crawled back to where we were in May {{{{sigh}}}}
Funny, I was just looking at this yesterday pondering a buy in or not. Ah well. What scared me off is how they throw around this cash npat term. Statutory npat running at a big loss due to expected impairments provision increasing. So surely, most or at least some of this provision will be lost right? So how is it reasonable to remove the impact of the entire provision movement to bring npat back into the green? Have I misunderstood something?
Quote from: Plata on Aug 01, 2023, 05:39 PMFunny, I was just looking at this yesterday pondering a buy in or not. Ah well. What scared me off is how they throw around this cash npat term. Statutory npat running at a big loss due to expected impairments provision increasing. So surely, most or at least some of this provision will be lost right? So how is it reasonable to remove the impact of the entire provision movement to bring npat back into the green? Have I misunderstood something?
yes you are dead right - the cash npat they refer to removes the movement in expected credit loss provision. It does include the actual credit losses incurred during the period, but then excludes the movement in provision booked at year end for the future credit losses expected over the full life of all the loans (with loans lasting 2-3 years on average). I think you can safely expect a negative statutory npat for the full year. 'cash npat' is industry standard for the fintech industry (rightly or wrongly), but in my view unlikely to be adopted as the valuation basis by the mkt (ie the right earnings number to apply a PE multiple to). I asked mgmt to justify their use of it once - they said it was the best proxy for operating cashflow, and that stat npat adversely impacted the most during high levels of book growth, given the negative movement in provision well be equally as large but the economic benefit is lagged (ie in the year just been it is only reflecting a partial year contribution from the loan but you are booking a loss for all of the future expected credit in one year). The inverse is true - if they were to slow the book - it would flip into a large positive movement in provision and stat npat would suddenly look good with a declining book. a competitor of HMY dropped their book down and recorded a surge in stat NPAT - its SP went up like 30-40% over 2 days and fell all the way back down over a few weeks - mkts have a real challenge in accepting and valuing these businesses. traditional banks have the same movement in provision but given they grow slowly its not as dramatically pronounced. measuring true cashflow in a bank, fintech or other financial insto is notoriously difficult.
[edit, wording.]
How does rolling out stellare 2.0 impact the existing engine in finding customers etc. They are blaming it for 24H1 cash npat forecast being lower. Are they going to go dark for a week or two to make the switch or something.
Smack on the wrist time, late 3Ys. Tisk tisk... More importantly it'd be nice to see a director buy on market rather than just highly discounted 'incentive plan' pick ups.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Sep 27, 2023, 01:08 PMSmack on the wrist time, late 3Ys. Tisk tisk... More importantly it'd be nice to see a director buy on market rather than just highly discounted 'incentive plan' pick ups.
Well slap me silly(ier) - While I was posting the above, Mr Roberts was doing exactly that. (https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02718580-2A1477354?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)
Humming along nicely. (https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231102/pdf/05wx5dqtr01p0c.pdf)
FY24 outlook reaffirmed
1Q24 Net interest margin 9.0%, down slightly on 4Q23 (9.2%)
Predicting significant NPAT growth from 2H24 onwards - target 20% ROE FY25
Only thing better than one director buying...yup, two.
1. Financial assistance was provided by the Company in respect of a total of 119,729 Shares (the
Relevant Shares).
2. A total consideration of AU$58,701.43 was paid by the Company for the on-market purchase of
the Relevant Shares.
3. The financial assistance was provided for the benefit of David Stevens and Neil Roberts, each
an employee and executive director of the Company, and each entitled to receive some of the
Relevant Shares in accordance with the Plan.
4. The nature of the financial assistance was the payment by the Company of the on-market
purchase price for the Relevant Shares.
Quote from: lorraina on Nov 27, 2023, 09:18 PM1. Financial assistance was provided by the Company in respect of a total of 119,729 Shares (the
Relevant Shares).
2. A total consideration of AU$58,701.43 was paid by the Company for the on-market purchase of
the Relevant Shares.
3. The financial assistance was provided for the benefit of David Stevens and Neil Roberts, each
an employee and executive director of the Company, and each entitled to receive some of the
Relevant Shares in accordance with the Plan.
4. The nature of the financial assistance was the payment by the Company of the on-market
purchase price for the Relevant Shares.
Thank you for the clarification.
Almost 50% gain in 5 days is always good.
Disc hold
Will be interesting to see if sentiment changes or if this is just a sneeze and it will plummet back down. Been eyeing getting into this one. Seems I was too late.
Quote from: Plata on Feb 07, 2024, 10:12 PMWill be interesting to see if sentiment changes or if this is just a sneeze and it will plummet back down. Been eyeing getting into this one. Seems I was too late.
True true! Long way to the surface for me on this one...Nice to see some green days ☘️☘️☘️
Quote from: Plata on Feb 07, 2024, 10:12 PMWill be interesting to see if sentiment changes or if this is just a sneeze and it will plummet back down. Been eyeing getting into this one. Seems I was too late.
Sentiment has not changed... it's the usual drift back down that follows the small spike from each positive announcement. This has become predictably tradable.
Borrowed from the other one.
This from For Bar this morning.
Harmoney Corp (HMY.AX) is Australasia's largest online direct personal lender. Its innovative online lending platform utilises comprehensive data insights, AI and machine learning to price and approve loans automatically, providing accessible and efficient financing at competitive rates. HMY's disruptive tech-driven platform, and its recently completed transition from a peer-to-peer platform to a diversified funding structure, position it well for growth as we approach an inflection point in the economic cycle, with interest rates set to decline. We expect HMY to capture market share from slow-moving and constrained incumbents in the significant ~A$159bn Australasian personal lending market, aided by the rollout of its Stellare® 2.0 lending platform opening new market segments and driving greater user conversion. Given its highly scalable tech platform, we are excited by the potential for HMY to generate significant operating leverage as it grows its loan book, driving the cost-to-income ratio down from an already impressive ~24% to ~17% by FY34. Near-term economic weakness presents a headwind for HMY, and we forecast a contraction in cash profit to A$0.9m in FY24 and a normalised loss of -A$3.3m (see Appendix 1: Explaining 'normalised' and 'cash' NPAT). However, we are attracted to the long-term growth potential and operating leverage opportunity, reflected in our spot valuation of A$1.27.
link
NZX Code HMY
Share price A$0.59
Spot Valuation A$1.27
Risk rating High
Issued shares 102.0m
Market cap A$59.6m
Avg daily turnover 37.1k (A$16k)
link
Financials: Jun/ 23A 24E 25E 26E
Rev (A$m) 105.5 123.2 135.4 156.1
NPAT* (A$m) 0.2 (3.3) 1.9 8.2
EPS* (Ac) 0.2 (3.2) 1.9 8.1
DPS (Ac) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Imputation (%) 0 0 0 0
*Based on normalised profits
link
Valuation (x) 23A 24E 25E 26E
PE n/a n/a 30.8 7.2
EV/EBIT n/a n/a n/a n/a
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a n/a n/a
Price / NTA 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Cash div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Laying the platform for the next stage of growth
Founded in NZ in 2013, HMY has since expanded into Australia and completed a transition to a diversified funding structure. Integrating technology into the direct-to-consumer model has streamlined processes, reduced operational costs, and driven efficiencies. Since its 2020 ASX IPO, HMY has grown its loan book to A$756m. With its funding model and next-generation lending platform, Stellare® 2.0, launching into the market, HMY is poised for continued growth over the next decade.
Navigating a path to best in sector returns after a challenging macroenvironment
HMY is on a trajectory of growth and increasing core profitability. However, rising interest rates have dampened borrower demand and a lift in incurred losses is likely to squeeze margins this year. Expansion of the loan book, technical innovation, and a discernible cost-to-income ratio reduction exemplify the company's drive for operational efficiency, sustainable long-term ROE, and growth.
"Its innovative online lending platform utilises comprehensive data insights, AI and machine learning to price and approve loans automatically"
Sounds like they jumped on the AI bandwagon. But something to note, they are at massive disadvantage to the big banks or a reasonable sized banks when it comes to automation and machine decision making. Banks have access to a massive amounts of data i.e bank transactions to help perfect this. And they need it. It is certainly considered the holy grail.
Harmoney's loan impairment rate is at 30%. Consider a lender that operate in a similar space, Latitude Finance, their impairment rate is 13%. At this level of impairment they must be lending out at a whole lot(albelt poor quality) and perhaps it s a key reason why they packaged up their borrowings and shifted it off their balance sheet. Anyhow the impairment rate is massive and I would have serious concerns with their internal processes.
Like Flavour Flav said. Don't believe the hype.
Incurred losses: Incurred losses ranging between a forecast of 4.2% in FY24 and 3.6% in terminal year. Management is targeting
incurred losses of between 3% to 4% of the loan book over time.
Quote from: Cookie on Feb 20, 2024, 03:26 PM"Its innovative online lending platform utilises comprehensive data insights, AI and machine learning to price and approve loans automatically"
Sounds like they jumped on the AI bandwagon. But something to note, they are at massive disadvantage to the big banks or a reasonable sized banks when it comes to automation and machine decision making. Banks have access to a massive amounts of data i.e bank transactions to help perfect this. And they need it. It is certainly considered the holy grail.
Harmoney's loan impairment rate is at 30%. Consider a lender that operate in a similar space, Latitude Finance, their impairment rate is 13%. At this level of impairment they must be lending out at a whole lot(albelt poor quality) and perhaps it s a key reason why they packaged up their borrowings and shifted it off their balance sheet. Anyhow the impairment rate is massive and I would have serious concerns with their internal processes.
Like Flavour Flav said. Don't believe the hype.
Sorry can you elaborate on their impairment rate of 30%.
I have not seen anything to suggest such a crazy number
Quote from: Scooter on Feb 22, 2024, 08:29 PMSorry can you elaborate on their impairment rate of 30%.
I have not seen anything to suggest such a crazy number
I based the figures off the interest income. Corresponds to 3-4% rate on the loan book that Percy mentioned.
Latitude Finance charged a similar range of rates to Harmoney, yet there impairment rate is significantly lower. It should be comparable. So I have a big question mark regarding their process.
FYI CCP has a higher impairment rate for their loan book. However they benefit from this as they are also a credit collection agency.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02776305-2A1506899
Same here - Appendix 4D
https://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20240223/02776205.pdf?uid=72103DEC05D3116E7152BBBE566A9E75CA6400006BD7986F4F24E640093D250091850000&ppv=
So if losses are ~4%, is that reflected in NIM? IE is NIM after those losses?
Quarterly results out
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02801889-2A1520466
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02814948-2A1527514
RIM CAPITAL: Initiation: New platform. New outlook
Read Trim Capital Group's research report on Harmoney (ASX: HMY), published on July 29th 2024.
Trim Capital Group is an independent Australian advisory and asset management firm specialising in corporate advisory, equities, and private lending.
Initiation: New platform. New outlook
Harmoney is a warehouse funded personal lender, distinct from incumbent
lenders by its 100% direct to consumer, highly automated digital platform, Stellare.
We initiate on Harmoney with a valuation of $1.42.
Key Takeaways
Proven and resilient business model: Demonstrating profitable growth on a cash
basis during the 4 consecutive half-years, while maintaining a 9-10% NIM (Net
Interest Margin) and 5-6% RAI Yield (Risk Adjusted Income / Average Gross Loans),
has evidenced that Harmoney's model is resilient to tightening credit conditions.
Diversified funding with plentiful headroom: Harmoney has warehouse facilities
provided by 3 of the 'Big 4' banks with $246m in available funding, indicating the
capacity for a ~33% expansion from its 3Q24 ending loan book of $757m.
Solid balance sheet with no forecast equity raise: Harmoney finished 1H24 with
unrestricted cash on hand $20.7m and a $30m corporate debt facility with $7.5m
of undrawn financing to support growth expenses.
Earnings and Valuation
Valuation suggests 263% upside: Our primary valuation method is a general
residual income model, which we cross check with a theoretical book multiple.
Using a cost of equity of 11.75%, we initiate on Harmoney with a price of $1.42.
Approaching 20% Cash ROE run-rate in late FY25: Our forecasts are broadly
consistent with managements' guidance of Harmoney nearing a 20% Cash ROE run-
rate in late FY25, with forecast generation of $8.1m in of Cash NPAT in FY26 and on,
on a stable $43m average equity driven by capital structure optimisation with
utilisation of the upsized corporate debt facility.
Investment Thesis
Peer leading Risk Adjusted Income (RAI): Automatically generated, personalised
risk-adjusted interest rates enable a peer leading RAI yield, despite having the
smallest loan book. We highlight this as a pivotal driver of forecast profitability.
Direct to consumer approach creates annuity income streams: Harmoney's self-
service, automated platform creates recurring revenue streams once a customer is
acquired, with near zero acquisition costs for returning customers – who in 1H24
represented 32% of Australian originations and 57% of New Zealand originations.
Catalysts and Risks
Roll-out of Harmoney's next gen proprietary lending platform: Harmoney
launched the 2nd generation of their platform in 1H23, with broader roll-out
continuing in FY25. We forecast this to accelerate growth and profitability via
enhanced customer experience, and the capability to launch new credit products.
Risk to the Investment Thesis: Being a finance company, Harmoney has a range of
risks applicable including macroeconomic conditions, liquidity and funding risks,
credit risk, fraud, cybersecurity, asset-liability mismatch and compliance risks.
Harmoney is a warehouse funded personal
lender, distinct from traditional non-bank
lenders by its 100% to consumer, digital
distribution model. Harmoney's current
portfolio of credit products include
unsecured and secured personal loans up to
$70,000, for purposes including debt
consolidation, business loans, wedding
loans, medical expenses, holiday loans and
education loans.
https://www.harmoney.com.au/
Key Data
Valuation (A$) 1.42
Current Price (A$) 0.39
Market Cap (A$m) 38.7
30 Day Average Turnover (A$m) 0.01
Trim Capital forecasts
FY Year End 23A 24E 25E 26E
Cash NPAT (m) 4.7 1.0 2.9 8.1
EPS Cash (c) 4.7 1.0 2.8 7.9
EPS adj gwth 2593% -78% 172% 185%
Cash PE adj (x) 9.8 10.8 11.8 12.8
DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Div yield (%) 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cash ROE (%) 8% 2% 6% 19%
PB (x) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
12- Month Relative XAO Performance
Glen Wellham, Senior Analyst
glen.wellham@trimcapital.com.au
Isaac Meincke, Analyst
isaac.meincke@trimcapital.com.au
https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-ehruiuk-yupddjlly-p/
Looks like good progess is being made
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02867005-2A1555931&v=fc9bdb61fe50ea61f8225e24ce041a0e155a9400
From Forsyth Barr:
Harmoney's (HMY) 1Q25 trading update showed robust performance across key metrics, driven by the implementation of its Stellare® �������2.0 lending platform in the Australian market. Loan book growth, net interest margins (NIM) and credit losses are all tracking in line with, or slightly ahead of, our expectations for FY25. Additionally, HMY's cost-to-income ratio (which fell to 21% in 1Q25 from 24% in FY24) continues to decline faster than anticipated. The outlook for the remainder of FY25 appears positive, underpinned by >+50% growth in Australian new customer loan originations in 1Q25 versus 1Q24. The growth in originations should support an acceleration in loan book growth in 2H25, and ultimately, HMY's target of a 20% cash ROE run rate in 2H25. HMY has total warehouse capacity of over A$900m to facilitate growth, with its loan book currently A$769m. We increase our short-term earnings expectations to reflect marginally improved NIMs and management efficiency. Long-term forecasts are largely unchanged and our blended spot valuation rises +5cps to A$1.29.
So the reason for net assets declining YoY and negative NPAT is due to them making immediate impairments of a few % of each new loan right? And the idea is we are supposed to look past this because it is a symptom of a growing loan book? How do you explain the loan book barely growing from FY23 to FY24 yet NPAT is still deeply negative, but somehow "cash npat positive"?
My understanding is that they wrote off stellar 1 intangible assets of around $10 million
I'm guessing no holders here anymore 😉. Wondering what the latest results will show since they don't seem to be provided a update like they normally would around now
Results out and look good
Harmony share Buy back starts 13 May - Investor communications today.
SmartSelect_20250429_114755_Chrome~2.jpg
New note from Trim Capital with target price of $2.27.
https://investorhub.harmoney.com.au/activity-updates/trim-capital-signs-of-recovery-in-new-zealand
Has forecast eps of 5.5 for 2025, 12 for 2026 for 2026 and 18.1 for 2027. Look forward to results in August.
I assume with the regularity of Trim's research notes on HMY that these are commissioned by the company? The disclosure implies that they are... A not very disclosing kind of disclosure.
Looking at the last page of the report it is stated that Trim was commissioned to write the report.
Harmoney has already forecast $10 for 2026 in February. I thought to forecast ahead at that time it was conservative. With signs of the markets improving in NZ and growth in Aus the company does seemed poised for an acceleration in its growth.
More positive press (https://www.thegoldentimes.com.au/in...rmation-story)
FY 25 Annual report out
ASX:HMY - FY25 Annual Report (https://investorhub.harmoney.com.au/announcements/7113876)
Screenshot 2025-08-20 182733.png
MST Access Update: Hitting Escape Velocity
https://investorhub.harmoney.com.au/activity-updates/mst-access-update-hitting-escape-velocity
We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 14.1%, 18.6%, and 16.7% for FY26,
FY27, and FY28 respectively. The revisions reflect the FY26 Cash NPAT
guidance upgrade and higher assumptions for risk-adjusted income and
originations, supported by stronger evidence of Stellare 2.0 efficiency. As a
result, our valuation increases to $2.70 (from $2.08).
As percy pointed out on other channel their DCF Valuation - June 2026
We utilise a DCF Valuation methodology as detailed in the below table. Our valuation for HMY moves to $2.70 per share, (previously $2.08 per share).
WOW....BUY...BUY
TRIM CAPITAL: Accelerating PerformanceRead Trim Capital Group's research report on Harmoney (ASX: HMY), published on 22 August 2025.
Lifting Valuation, Altering Forecasts
Changing forecasts: Our Cash EPS estimates rise by +0.1% for FY26E and fall by 2.4%
for FY27E while introducing our detailed FY28 estimates for the first time.
Valuation suggests 220% upside: Our primary valuation method is a general
residual income model and produces a valuation of $2,53, up from the prior $2.27
after incorporating the rvor result and the above earnings forecasts changes.
HGH has now sold all of its Harmoney shares. I assume this is what has been driving and holding the SP at current levels even with a buy back in place. It looks like HGH divested at 0.80 cents for 9 million shares approx.
Quote from: Cod on Sep 18, 2025, 12:08 PMHGH has now sold all of its Harmoney shares. I assume this is what has been driving and holding the SP at current levels even with a buy back in place. It looks like HGH divested at 0.80 cents for 9 million shares approx.
Am I being cynical in thinking that the buy back has been very convenient for HGH as means of an exit for them?
It probably helped them get a better price but normally the buyback daily announcements involve pretty small quantities.
Investor presentation highlights. 30-10-2026
https://investorhub.harmoney.com.au/announcements/7235551
Loan originations increased by 15% in Australia and by 50% in New Zealand with New Zealand now also benefiting from Stellare 2.0 following its implementation in June 2025.
31 October 2025
Platform for Growth
Lafitani Sotiriou, Senior Analyst
lafitani.sotiriou@mstemerging.com.au
NEED TO KNOW
Xavier Romanin-Green, Associate Analyst
FY26 Cash NPAT was reaffirmed, targeting $12m (+111% vs pcp).
xavier.romanin-green@mstemerging.com.au
Loan originations increased >50% in New Zealand, the geography
now benefitting from the implementation of Stellare 2.0.
Risk-adjusted income ratio, a key metric for the company,
increased to 6.5% (+130bps vs pcp).
Another solid operational quarter for Harmoney, reaffirming its FY26 guidance
of $12m in cash NPAT, with a key metric, risk adjusted income ratio, reaching
6.5%. Stellare 2.0 continues to drive margin expansion, operating leverage,
and strong credit performance. New Zealand has benefited from its recent
Harmoney Corp Limited provides online secured and
Stellare 2.0 implementation (June 2025), achieving a >50% loan origination
unsecured personal loans in Australia and New Zealand.
increase. Net Interest Margin expanded to 10.3%, and portfolio quality
The company's personal loans are used for various
remained solid (90+ day arrears of 0.77%), with Cost-to-income ratio also
purposes, including debt consolidation, home
remained staying strong at 19%.
improvement, wedding, car, holiday, education, business,
and medical expenses. It operates Stellare, a marketing
Harmoney remains well positioned for growth with $35m in available cash
platform. www.harmoney.co.nz
reserves and a total warehouse credit capacity of ~$1bn. The company has
guided that it expects to use $7.5m of its available cash reserves to refinance
Valuation A$2.75 (from A$2.70)
an existing corporate debt facility, reducing the drawn balance to $15m on
materially improved terms. Coupled with the company's capacity for growth,
Current price A$0.93
Stellare 2.0 provides a platform that enables delivery of that growth.
Market cap A$96.8m
Harmoney recently launching its secured car loan product which leverages
Stellare 2.0's modern, agile platform designed for product innovation. This
Available Cash A$35m
follows guidance from the company's FY25 annual report which flagged the
re-vamped secured car loan product as the first of many features and
products that would leverage Stellare 2.0.
Upcoming Catalysts / Next News
Investment Thesis
Period
The technology advantage of Stellare 2.0 underpins faster, fairer loan
FY26 Guidance: $12m Cash NPAT
pricing and forms a high barrier to entry for competitors. Stellare 2.0 also
FY26 Guidance: $900m+ loan book
enables the potential for Harmoney to bring new products to market quicker,
FY26 Guidance: Risk adjusted income ~6%
supporting future diversification of revenue . Continuous platform innovation
FY26 Agentic lending
has enhanced Harmoney's ability to scale efficiently .
FY26+ Further feature & product innovation
FY26+ Capacity to facilitate growth
Positioned to scale materially over the coming years. Harmoney currently
has ~0.3% share of the Australian personal lending market, providing
significant whitespace. Repeat customer monetisation, margin tailwinds, and
Share Price (A$)
further cost efficiency are key drivers of expanding returns on equity.
Funding & liquidity position supports growth runway: Harmoney has
~$1bn in warehouse capacity, backed by three of the Big Four banks, and
limited equity capital required for book expansion. Its balance sheet is also
well positioned with ~$35m in available cash.
Risks & Valuation
We have increased our EPS by 5.5%, 2.1%, and 1.2% for FY26, FY27 and
FY28 respectively. The changes are primarily driven by HMY's update that its
existing corporate debt facility will be refinanced ($7.5m reduction), a pivot in
reallocating capital towards paying down the facility (decreased buyback
Source: FactSet, MST Access
assumption), and a marginal increase in immediate NIM estimates with the
strong quarter. We note that EPS adjustments on an absolute basis are
small. Following the changes, our valuation moves to $2.75 (previously
$
This report has been prepared and issued by the named analyst of MST Access in consideration of a fee payable by: Harmoney Corp (HMY.AX)
Report prepared by MST Access, a registered business name of MST Financial Services Limited ABN 54 617 475 180 AFSL 500 557.
mstaccess.com.au
Jeez - valuation $2.75 ... prob A$ as well
BUY THIS FOR UNDER A BUCK BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE
I'm inclined to think this one has run up as far as it will go until they give FY27 guidance. Doesn't really add up the idea of this being such a steal, insane value, can't go wrong, yet this year insiders have been net sellers by FAR.
TRIM CAPITAL: Cash NPAT to exceed guidance, again (ASX:HMY).- 9 December 2025
Read Trim Capital Group's research report below on Harmoney Corp (ASX:HMY): Cash NPAT to exceed guidance, again.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Cash NPAT to exceed guidance, again
Harmoney has partially paid down and refinanced their corporate debt, which is expected to lower funding costs and benefit Cash NPAT. Our forecast revisions imply they will exceed FY26 Cash NPAT target. Our updated valuation is at $2.72.
Key Takeaways
Corporate debt refinancing: Harmoney has paid down $7.5m of its corporate debt and refinanced the remaining A$15.0m through a revolving corporate debt facility with one of Australia's leading "Big-4" banks. The new facility has a 3-year term, lower interest rate, and market-standard financial covenants with no equity or convertible component attached.
Cash NPAT improvement: We expect that the refinancing will lower funding costs by ~A$1.1m annually. This adjustment has a material impact on our risk-adjusted income and Cash NPAT forecasts, now expecting A$12.9m for FY26. This means that HMY is poised to exceed its FY26 Cash NPAT target of A$12.0m.
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation suggests 218% upside: Our primary valuation method is a general residual income model and produces a valuation of $2.72, up by +4.5% from the prior $2.60 due to our forecast revisions, particularly on lower funding costs due to the refinancing of corporate debt. Our diluted cash EPS changes are FY26: +5%, FY27: +7%, FY28: +6%.
Director has been buying also, not massive amounts but another positive sentiment.
Based on our trading results year-to-date, we reaffirm our guidance for FY26 Cash NPAT of $12
million, which represents a 111% increase on our FY25 result.
Growth remains strong across both markets. In our first quarter of FY26, Australian originations were
up 15%, and New Zealand originations surged by over 50%, on the same quarter of the prior year, and
this momentum has continued into the second quarter, as the market has fully embraced the speed
and ease of Stellare® 2.0
Can't help wonder what the share price might be if this was still NZX listed...
A stunner.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03058602-2A1654594&v=undefined
Excellent update -- Cash NPAT: $13m (previous guidance $12m) FY26
Screenshot 2026-02-19 191823.png
20 February 202 6
A I - powered money - making machine
Harmoney is a warehouse funded personal
The forecasted growth / improvements arrived sooner - than - expected , leading to
lender, distinct from traditional non - bank
exceptional 1H26 result s where Cash NPAT and Cash ROE reached record levels .
lenders by its 100% to consumer, digital
We updated our forecasts and upgraded our valuation to $ 2. 90 .
distribution model. Harmoney's current
portfolio of credit products include s
Key Takeaways
unsecured and secured personal loans up to
$ 10 0,000, for purposes including debt
Monumental performance: 1H26 Cash NPAT of $6.1m was ahead of our
consolidat ion , business loans , wedding
expectations and surpassed the FY 25 Cash NPAT of $5.7m . This led to an exceptional
loans, medical expenses , holiday loans and
education loans.
1H26 cash ROE of 31%. Loan s grew +9% to $857m as the Australian book sustained
https://www.harmoney.com.au/
double - digit growth (+17%) while the NZ book rebounded in its originations (+49%).
The NIM improvement also came sooner - than - expected and outweighed the slight
Key Data
increase in credit losses. The company is now reaping the benefits of its new
Valuation (A$) 2. 90
platform (Stellare 2.0) and is poised to generate exceptional cash returns as long as
Current Price (A$) 0. 8 6
they sustain exceptional margins, manage their costs and losses, and maintain
Market Cap (A$ m ) 89 . 5
quality service that attract s new and returning customers .
30 Day Average Turnover (A$) $ 63,315
Improved outlook and guidance: FY26 Cash NPAT guidance was again increased
Trim Capital f orecasts
from $12m to $13m, broadly in - line with our prior forecast of $12.9m. More growth
is expected in FY26 - 27 from implementation of Agentic AI capabilities, introduction
FY Year End 25A 26E 27E 28E
of a mobile app, development of new products (revolving credit line), and pursuit
Cash NPAT (m) 5.7 13.3 19.5 24.3
EPS Cash (c) 5.5 12.9 19.4 24.1
of finance partnerships (auto marketplaces).
EPS gwth (%) 736 133 51 24
Valuation & Forecasts
PE adj (x) 15.6 6.7 4.4 3.6
DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Div yield (%) – – – –
V aluation suggests 2 3 7 % upside : Our primary valuation method is a general
Cash ROE (%) 16.0 35.0 43.8 46.6
residual income model and produce s a valuation of $ 2. 90 , up by + 6.5% from the
PB (x) 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.5
prior $2 . 7 2 due to our forecast revisions . Our diluted cash EPS changes are FY26:
12 - Month Share Price Performance
+ 2 %, FY27: + 2 % , FY28: + 4 % .
Investment Thesis
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.80
Peer leading Risk Adjusted Income (RAI) : Automatically generated, personalised
0.60
0.60
risk - adjusted interest rates enable a peer - leading margins and yield. We highlight
0.40
0.40
this as a pivotal driver of forecast ed profitability and growth .
0.20
0.20
Direct to consumer approach creates annuity income streams : Harmoney 's self -
0.00
0.00
service, automated platform creates recurring revenue streams once a customer i s
acquired, with near zero acquisition costs for returning customers .
Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Source: LSEG Data & Analytics Catalysts and Risks
Glen Wellham , Senior Analyst
Innovation and rollout of new p roduct s: Having fully implemented Stellare 2. 0, the
glen.w ellham @trimcapital.com.au
company is now transitioning to product innovation and further platform
improvements that should drive loan growth , scale, and overall profits.
Mark Tomlins , Senior Analyst
mark.tomlins@trimcapital.com.au
Risk to the Investment Thesis: Being a finance company, Harmoney has a range of
risks applicable including macroeconomic conditions, liquidity and funding risks,
credit risk, fraud, cybersecurity, asset - liability mismatch and compliance risks.
This research report and any access to it, is intended only for wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia.
The company covered in this report is currently or may in the future be a research client of Trim Cap Pty Ltd (AR 1276369, AB N 87643977351) a Corporate Authorised Representative of