StockTalk

So much more than just a hotel chain. Actually - MCK (NZ) is a small part of the global CDL development organisation, and is majority owned by MCK in the UK, which is majority owned by CDL Singapore, which is (through a fund) majority owned by the Kwek family in Singapore.

MCK itself owns next to their NZ hotels as well CDL (NZ), a quite profitable land development company and makes money with selling appartments in Sydney.

Thanks to their property business did they come quite well through the Covid slump .... and they are now outstandingly positioned to make money with travel and tourism on the rise again. Always good to buy at the end of a crash the surviving companies at very reasonable rates. Only the fittest survived, the competition is smaller and demand is growing.

Fundamentals: Average P/E (10 yrs) currently below 10. Current SP is roughly 65% of their NTA - and even the NTA is very conservative rated - all assets are at purchase value, not at the current estimated value. Extremely conservative balance sheet (liabilities to assets: 15%).

On the flipside - low liquidity share with dominating majority owner. Forget any dreams of making quick bucks by take over, but IMHO a good share to become rich using the slow but safer lane ... 

Discl: happy holder of both MCK as well as CDI;
 

Do you have any ideas why the gearing is so conservative? For what is effectively a property company I thought closer to 30% gearing was normal.

I guess the majority owners just like it that way - and it worked for them over the last 60 years (well, 59 - CDL Singapore was founded in 1963). Why change a strategy which works?

BTW - hardly any debts came pretty handy when Covid arrived and business broke away over night. Having no loans to serve made it just so much easier to survive ...

A large long term hold for me. Very strong balance sheet (zero debt), and strong underlying cashflow generating assets across the MCK/CDI consolidated group.

Keep an eye on Auckland Airport & AirNZ monthly passenger data for good near real time data on how the inbound tourism market is returning to normal. Australia already back with a vengeance, and July is when most international long haul routes begin operating at something approaching normal again.

The end of pre-departure testing requirements for those heading to NZ was the final barrier to come down (ended last week).       

HY results are out ... and its a pleasant surprise:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MCK/396687/376193.pdf

They still made a profit in the first HY (half of what they made last year), NTA kept increasing to $3.33 per share and they are now saying that they expect FY to return a profit as well (in February they forecasted only break even) - hey, this is an upgrade!

All up from here?

Anybody noticing the latest SP trend? SP just shooting through the MA's and now well above the MA200 (which some might consider a positive indicator).

MCK trend.JPG

Anyway - a significant part of their income is from part owning CDI (and even if the property sector keeps tanking, people will need new sections) and hotel business can in my view only go one way after the Covid hiatus. Average backward PE at current SP is 9.4; Not bad. Not sure whether I want to speculate on the future earnings growth (given hotels are needed again), but I am sure it will turn out to be a pleasant number.

Looking forward to the 2022 numbers. While still difficult (remember Covid?) - I am sure they will provide a good base to imagine nice things for 2023.

not really a sector one follows down under but tourism stocks  have moved up over the last 6 months

Thl july 2022 2.30 ish now 3.90

MCK is one of my favourite deep value stock holdings. To be fair, as others have pointed out thin liquidity and no obvious catalyst for the deep value to be recognised by Mr Market. Happy to hold long term and one day when both tourism and land development are firing the value may become more apparent to a larger group of  investors. Despite the property gloom I see some real pluses with subsidiary CDI including the opportunity to deploy the large cash holding to acquire development land at or near the nadir and the self fulfilling prophecy aspect of valuers using circa 15%+ discount rates to value development land - with banks likely to require valuations on projects undertaken by CDIs debt funded competitors.

Quote from: Mos on Mar 15, 2023, 11:04 PMMCK is one of my favourite deep value stock holdings. To be fair, as others have pointed out thin liquidity and no obvious catalyst for the deep value to be recognised by Mr Market. Happy to hold long term and one day when both tourism and land development are firing the value may become more apparent to a larger group of  investors. Despite the property gloom I see some real pluses with subsidiary CDI including the opportunity to deploy the large cash holding to acquire development land at or near the nadir and the self fulfilling prophecy aspect of valuers using circa 15%+ discount rates to value development land - with banks likely to require valuations on projects undertaken by CDIs debt funded competitors.

Nice - Gonna give us an estimate of fair value per share?

Hi Crackity,

Sure, happy to share some thoughts and hopefully both MCK believers and cynics will reciprocate by sharing their take.

Current share prices of $2.16 for MCK and $2.17 for MCKPA results in market cap of $343.3 m. I think the business is worth at least book value of $531.0 m (equity attributable to owners of the parent). Market cap is therefore 65% of owners equity at net book value (noting that book value is based on cost price not valuation).

The 66% owned CDI has produced an average NPAT of $31.3 m over the last 7 years with a range from $27.0 m way back in 2016 to a record of $34.1 m in 2019. The 2022 NPAT was close to the seven year average at $31.0 m. I think over the long run this is an attractive business that can continue to deliver strong earnings. It has a very strong balance sheet with no debt and $71.7 m of cash and short term deposits. So the challenging property market may impact earnings short term but should offer great opportunities to deploy cash to acquire development land at value prices. The book value of CDI represents a modest p.e. of 8.8 based on both 2022 NPAT and seven year average NPAT.

The hotel business has clearly had a tough few years and has a net book value (based on acquisition cost) of $252.5 m. Pre-Covid the hotel business earned NPAT of $26.3 m in 2018 and $25.0 m in 2019. I think it should be able to return to this level of earnings as tourism recovers over the next couple of years. In 2022 it suffered a NPAT loss of $2.6 m. If the hotel business can return to an NPAT of $25 m it would improve MCK NPAT to $60.0 m (assuming everything else remains the same) with $49.4 m of that attribute to equity holders of MCK. This would put the whole business on a p/e of 10.7 at the book value of $531.0 m. Overall I see little downside at the current share price, a good margin of safety and good upside. The substantial cash holdings at both CDI and MCK provide a significant level of comfort to ride out the storm and take advantage of compelling opportunities.

Having said all that, the stock has very low liquidity, minimal institutional interest and no obvious catalyst to rerate the share price. Therefore, I see it as a long haul investment where I can own part of a good business at deep value price. I do not expect a rerating of the price at least until both the hotel business and the property business are firing on all cylinders.

None of this is advice just some thoughts that I am sharing. I hope to hear others view on the company.

Cheers
 



         

Quote from: Mos on Mar 16, 2023, 12:23 PMHi Crackity,

Sure, happy to share some thoughts and hopefully both MCK believers and cynics will reciprocate by sharing their take.

Current share prices of $2.16 for MCK and $2.17 for MCKPA results in market cap of $343.3 m. I think the business is worth at least book value of $531.0 m (equity attributable to owners of the parent). Market cap is therefore 65% of owners equity at net book value (noting that book value is based on cost price not valuation).

The 66% owned CDI has produced an average NPAT of $31.3 m over the last 7 years with a range from $27.0 m way back in 2016 to a record of $34.1 m in 2019. The 2022 NPAT was close to the seven year average at $31.0 m. I think over the long run this is an attractive business that can continue to deliver strong earnings. It has a very strong balance sheet with no debt and $71.7 m of cash and short term deposits. So the challenging property market may impact earnings short term but should offer great opportunities to deploy cash to acquire development land at value prices. The book value of CDI represents a modest p.e. of 8.8 based on both 2022 NPAT and seven year average NPAT.

The hotel business has clearly had a tough few years and has a net book value (based on acquisition cost) of $252.5 m. Pre-Covid the hotel business earned NPAT of $26.3 m in 2018 and $25.0 m in 2019. I think it should be able to return to this level of earnings as tourism recovers over the next couple of years. In 2022 it suffered a NPAT loss of $2.6 m. If the hotel business can return to an NPAT of $25 m it would improve MCK NPAT to $60.0 m (assuming everything else remains the same) with $49.4 m of that attribute to equity holders of MCK. This would put the whole business on a p/e of 10.7 at the book value of $531.0 m. Overall I see little downside at the current share price, a good margin of safety and good upside. The substantial cash holdings at both CDI and MCK provide a significant level of comfort to ride out the storm and take advantage of compelling opportunities.

Having said all that, the stock has very low liquidity, minimal institutional interest and no obvious catalyst to rerate the share price. Therefore, I see it as a long haul investment where I can own part of a good business at deep value price. I do not expect a rerating of the price at least until both the hotel business and the property business are firing on all cylinders.

None of this is advice just some thoughts that I am sharing. I hope to hear others view on the company.

Cheers
 



         

Nice work Mos - My notes about CDI ( I own both MCK and CDI )

The independent market value of CDI's property holdings as at 31 December 2022, was $405.4 million (2021: $359.7 million) which reflects both the acquisitions made and value added in 2022. At cost, the portfolio was valued at $239.5 million (2021: $209.1 million) in line with CDI's accounting policies. 405.4 mill Val - 239.5 mill cost - value the market doesn't really see $165.9 mill

288.8 million shares issue

Additional value per share 57.4cps

Stated NTA per share at cost end 2022 - 107 cps

Plus 57.4 cps

Approx 164 cps  ( rough figure - needs to be adjusted for tax and current market value of the subdivisions /land )




 8)

Yes good point Crackity. I see the $165.9 m you refer to as the source of the next 3 to 4 years profits for CDI...
- $165.9 m x 72% / 4 years = $29.9 m NPAT per year
- $165.9 m x 72% / 3 years = $39.8 m NPAT per year

Land development a very good business if done well.

Happy to hold CDI via MCK.

 

Interesting development. As a shareholder I am a bit nonplussed by lack of expected earnings metrics from this acquisition. Hard to evaluate without more informative disclosure.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408779 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408779)

Quote from: Mos on Mar 26, 2023, 01:13 PMInteresting development. As a shareholder I am a bit nonplussed by lack of expected earnings metrics from this acquisition. Hard to evaluate without more informative disclosure.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408779 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408779)

Agreed - this was as well the subject of some hard hitting questions from the floor in todays AGM, particularly (but not just) from the ACC account manager ... and I found their answers re independence of decision making (and in whose interest the directors acted) not quite satisfying. No meaningful answers related to business case either - its all commercially sensitive.

Clear "go away" to minority share holders.

Probably fair to say that the board does not need to care about the views of minority share holders (given that the Singaporean Kwek family holds through various investment vehicles something like 70%) ... and this was something which strongly came across today. They just did their formal duty, but clearly didn't see any reason to communicate with or work for minority share holders. They don't even emphasize that they acted in our (shareholders) interest - just in the interest of the company (whatever this means).

Quite disappointing ...

Thanks for your update from ASM BP. Agree with your comments. The value on offer is good but the majority shareholder is a question mark for minorities to consider.

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 23, 2023, 02:29 PMAgreed - this was as well the subject of some hard hitting questions from the floor in todays AGM, particularly (but not just) from the ACC account manager ... and I found their answers re independence of decision making (and in whose interest the directors acted) not quite satisfying. No meaningful answers related to business case either - its all commercially sensitive.

Clear "go away" to minority share holders.

Probably fair to say that the board does not need to care about the views of minority share holders (given that the Singaporean Kwek family holds through various investment vehicles something like 70%) ... and this was something which strongly came across today. They just did their formal duty, but clearly didn't see any reason to communicate with or work for minority share holders. They don't even emphasize that they acted in our (shareholders) interest - just in the interest of the company (whatever this means).

Quite disappointing ...

I think you missed it the chairman said they are working for all shareholders.
They should be printing money now the room rent % is near normal.
They are "for real" look at the share price performance since listing.
They are using their Australian asset sales and aud cash to finance this hotel and they said have waited years for an opportunity this good.
It will be earning accretive for day one.

Quote from: Clearasmud on May 24, 2023, 09:18 PMI think you missed it the chairman said they are working for all shareholders.
They should be printing money now the room rent % is near normal.
They are "for real" look at the share price performance since listing.
They are using their Australian asset sales and aud cash to finance this hotel and they said have waited years for an opportunity this good.
It will be earning accretive for day one.

Not sure I heard that, but he would say that, wouldn't he?

But maybe you missed one of the so called independent directors pushing back against the shareholder question (asked by the responsible ACC account manager - sorry. forgot his name) implying that they should work in the interest of the shareholders of MCI ("the people in this room"). The director clarified that they work for the interests of the company and made clear that this is a different thing.

Quite funny when afterwards the person asking read to the meeting the confirmation the board actually sent to the NZX to get the waiver (talking about the interest of all shareholders) for related parties dealings. It appeared the directors don't quite understand their duties and clearly they didn't know what they signed!

Sure - maybe they work too hard and had a slip of attention or whatever, and maybe there have been misunderstandings ... but I do believe in Freudian slips :) ;

NBR excerpt published today



NZX-listed Millennium & Copthorne says it is "in negotiations" with Auckland Council and Precinct Properties over the future of its MSocial hotel property, which sits in front of their downtown carpark development project.
Precinct was selected last October as preferred developer for the Council's 6442 sq m downtown carpark site, although final terms on a deal are yet to be agreed.
At Millennium & Copthorne's annual meeting last week, chair Colin Sim was asked to comment on the company's approach to the development.
Sim confirmed Millennium & Copthorne was in talks with the Council and Precinct. "Let's be very clear, we sit on a very valuable property," he said.
"We sit on the key to unlock value and enhance the investment next door. So yes we are in a prime position and we are in negotiations and we will make sure it is to the benefit of all shareholders."

Second article in two days on MCK at NBR and this one is a longer one


Heading - A hotel company with an attitude
problem


ANALYSIS: Millennium & Copthorne's disdain for minority shareholders is written all over its accounts.


Excerpt 1. -


The MSocial would also be far from the only valuable property on the hotel company's books. For example, according to property records its Copthorne Hotel at 31 Frankton Rd in Queenstown has a land value on its own of $46.75m, slightly

 more than the book value of all the land on MCK's balance sheet. Including the buildings the property has a rating valuation of $116m.
That's just one of 14 hotels in the MCK owned portfolio.


Excerpt 2 -

Seen in that light there is surely at least potential for value realisation at MCK. The hard part will be getting the board to admit it when a lowball takeover offer is so much easier.
Investors who want to check it out will have to read the notes closely.

Absolutely right Crackity. There is serious hidden value to be unlocked in the hotel sites. Question is can it be unlocked and if so how?

Quote from: Mos on Jun 02, 2023, 05:42 PMAbsolutely right Crackity. There is serious hidden value to be unlocked in the hotel sites. Question is can it be unlocked and if so how?

I've been perusing the latest annual report of the ultimate parent company ( CDL in Singapore ) - here are 3 snippets....


UNLOCKING VALUE IN HOSPITALITY - glossy page 6

Since the privatisation of Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Limited (M&C) in 2019, we have streamlined our portfolio through opportunistic asset divestments to unlock latent value and reallocate capital for growth. These include the record sale of Millennium Hilton Seoul and the completion of the collective sale of Tanglin Shopping Centre in 2022 – both held by M&C.
Spurred by the continued recovery and restored confidence in global travel, our hotel operations made a strong rebound in 2022, having recovered in most markets to pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The segment is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory, riding on the return of corporate travel and unabated pent-up demand for leisure travel.

We also continue to enhance our hospitality offerings and revitalise our assets through AEIs and repositionings, focusing on revenue generation and asset yield optimisation. Several key hotels will be rebranded to M Social. These include M Social Hotel Phuket, M Social Hotel Downtown, New York



And here's the second paragraph of the Executive Chairman's report -

Prudent divestments and strong operational performance from our core business segments drove the Group's stellar earnings. In FY 2022, we realised significant capital gains from our successful divestments of several major properties held at book value over a long period of time – a testament to the Group's ability to extract value at the most opportune time.



And here's something in the Group CEO report -

Transforming for the Future
Our hospitality portfolio is a key transformation lever. Since we privatised Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Limited (M&C) in November 2019, our hotel operations segment has undergone an upheaval, with the pandemic decimating the travel industry in 2020 and 2021. However, with the reopening of borders and easing restrictions in 2022, our hospitality segment has rebounded strongly, with operations in most markets having recovered to pre- pandemic levels. With a more stabilised position, we will accelerate our plans for asset optimisation and drive alignment to the Group's strategic plans and processes.

Following a holistic review of our hospitality portfolio, we have executed strategic asset divestment and restructuring initiatives to unlock latent value during the year. These include the KRW 1.1 trillion (approximately $1.25 billion) sale of Millennium Hilton Seoul, the divestment of interest in Tanglin Shopping Centre held by M&C, as well as the accounting deconsolidation of CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) from the Group following a distribution in specie of CDLHT units in May 2022 to reward shareholders



My takeaway -
This is quite different to what the NZ company said at the recent MCK AGM - maybe they haven't got the memo.....

I'm also pondering why the Brisbane purchase is a jv between the parent company and the NZ listed arm.

Hmmmm - interesting



Here's the link
https://ir.cdl.com.sg/static-files/bce35724-c632-4077-a6df-d94f41869916

Thanks for the link Crackity. An interesting read.

Good to see the parent company focused on value realisation with respect to some of their global assets. It would be great if MCK can realise the value of the M Social site on the Auckland waterfront followed by some of their other very valuable but sub-optimised properties.

From the outside it seems quirky for the parent to do a JV with their 76% owned subsidiary for the Brisbane hotel acquisition. I note the parent company capital structure is more 50/50 equity/debt so quite different to the MCK fortress balance sheet.

 

Twin towers and a laneway weaving its way from Britomart to the Viaduct are proposed if Auckland councillors agree to sell the Downtown carpark building to Precinct Properties.

A pack of confidential images leaked to the Weekend Herald reveal Precinct's plan to expand its portfolio of office towers on the Auckland waterfront from Commercial Bay to the Viaduct.

To pull it off, Precinct plans to buy and demolish the carpark building and develop the prime 0.625ha waterfront site where the plain, but functional seven-storey building with 1944 spaces has provided affordable parking since it was built in 1970.

The twin towers will be almost 40 storeys high and offer spectacular views for office workers and apartments.

Central to Precinct's plans are two slim skyscrapers nearly 40 storeys high towering above the M Social hotel on Quay St that will have a mix of office space and apartments with spectacular views of the Waitematā Harbour and the Hauraki Gulf.


Herald today - MSocial site potentially blocks most of the harbour views from these proposed towers if ever redeveloped 🤔

Quote from: Crackity on Nov 11, 2023, 02:34 PMTwin towers and a laneway weaving its way from Britomart to the Viaduct are proposed if Auckland councillors agree to sell the Downtown carpark building to Precinct Properties.

A pack of confidential images leaked to the Weekend Herald reveal Precinct's plan to expand its portfolio of office towers on the Auckland waterfront from Commercial Bay to the Viaduct.

To pull it off, Precinct plans to buy and demolish the carpark building and develop the prime 0.625ha waterfront site where the plain, but functional seven-storey building with 1944 spaces has provided affordable parking since it was built in 1970.

The twin towers will be almost 40 storeys high and offer spectacular views for office workers and apartments.

Central to Precinct's plans are two slim skyscrapers nearly 40 storeys high towering above the M Social hotel on Quay St that will have a mix of office space and apartments with spectacular views of the Waitematā Harbour and the Hauraki Gulf.


Herald today - MSocial site potentially blocks most of the harbour views from these proposed towers if ever redeveloped 🤔

Exactly. How much would Precinct pay to protect the views and enlarge their proposed $1b+ development? Good time to be a MCK shareholder - perhaps the hidden value our one of our best sites will be unlocked in the next year or two.

 

Quote from: Mos on Nov 11, 2023, 04:12 PMExactly. How much would Precinct pay to protect the views and enlarge their proposed $1b+ development? Good time to be a MCK shareholder - perhaps the hidden value our one of our best sites will be unlocked in the next year or two.

 

Yikes, they're already being dubbed 'the twin towers', that's a moniker Precinct would want to rapidly move way from.   

I imagine I'd be a bit of a sod for M-Social to lose that parking?  Walking is off putting for casual restaurant diners etc.

I see Precinct is paying $122m for the Downtown Carpark site for their $1b+ proposed development (excerpt from Precinct NZX release below). Surely it makes good commercial sense for Precinct to enlarge and preserve the views of this development by making a very solid offer for our M Social hotel.

"The Downtown Car Park site purchase price is $122 million, payable at the end of 2025 with Auckland Transport to continue to operate the carpark until then. Demolition cannot commence before 30 April 2025. While design is underway, development timing will be dependent on a number of factors, including demand, feasibility and consenting processes."

With council approving the downtown carpark sale, surely an attractive offer for the valuable waterfront M Social site is getting closer.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-government/301014518/auckland-downtown-carpark-a-122-million-done-deal-despite-tempers

Hotel Data New Zealand (HDNZ) figures.


Queenstown reconfirmed its status as a highly sought-after destination, experiencing a resurgence in occupancies to 88 per cent following a 13 per cent year-on-year rise in the number of room nights sold. The robust demand resulted in a 17 per cent increase in ADR across all hotel categories compared with the previous year.

Very interesting thread and company structure with the Singapore majority owners. The price has been going one way though despite all the optimism?

Quote from: entrep on Mar 18, 2024, 10:05 PMVery interesting thread and company structure with the Singapore majority owners. The price has been going one way though despite all the optimism?

Yes

Quote from: Crackity on Mar 18, 2024, 10:37 PMYes

Does that concern you at all? Have followed this share on and off for years but the ownership always puts me off

Quote from: entrep on Mar 18, 2024, 10:05 PMVery interesting thread and company structure with the Singapore majority owners. The price has been going one way though despite all the optimism?

It all depends on your time horizon.

Clearly - the share price is correlated both with the real estate market as well as with the state of tourism. Both are still down, so - no surprises here. Some might see this as opportunity to buy and others as opportunity to beat up the stock - so, clearly a win-win.

Look at a 10 year window, and you will see some ups as well as some downs in the share price.

Buy low and sell high, and you will have a reasonable return, sell low and buy high and you won't.

I do see them as one "stabiliser" in a diversified portfolio, not as the next big thing (which may or may not eventuate). Which includes as well selling some of them when the SP is high (which did happen in the past) and buying some more when the SP is low (like now).

But yes, the ownership structure is a worry, but then - which security hasn't owners to worry about? While I think that they are prudent and honorable business people, they clearly have different objectives with this investment to retail shareholders - like using MCK as one of the instruments to under value their assets.

I think there is a place for stocks like that on the exchange - despite realizing that their board and majority owners might have a different agenda to me. But hey, I live as well in NZ despite realising that our government (no matter whether we talk about this or the one before) have a different agenda than I have. Just one of the compromises you have to make.

Its all about using them for what they are good and developing strategies to avoid or mitigate the pitfalls. MCK clearly is one of the stocks I would only use as stabilizing long term investment in a highly diversified portfolio - without loosing the sight for a reasonable sell price.

Quote from: Crackity on Jun 02, 2023, 11:55 AMSecond article in two days on MCK at NBR and this one is a longer one


Heading - A hotel company with an attitude
problem


ANALYSIS: Millennium & Copthorne's disdain for minority shareholders is written all over its accounts.


Excerpt 1. -


The MSocial would also be far from the only valuable property on the hotel company's books. For example, according to property records its Copthorne Hotel at 31 Frankton Rd in Queenstown has a land value on its own of $46.75m, slightly

 more than the book value of all the land on MCK's balance sheet. Including the buildings the property has a rating valuation of $116m.
That's just one of 14 hotels in the MCK owned portfolio.


Excerpt 2 -

Seen in that light there is surely at least potential for value realisation at MCK. The hard part will be getting the board to admit it when a lowball takeover offer is so much easier.
Investors who want to check it out will have to read the notes closely.

And here is the lowball offer......

Time for the Independent Directors to prove that they are firstly independent and secondly competent. Derisory take over "offer" price. 

Interesting Tim Hunter NBR article today- here some snippets for pondering further


Snippet 1-
In 2021 the New Zealand company changed its accounting policies on the carrying value of its land and buildings to align with its UK parent. Where the assets had previously been carried at fair value, they were now carried at cost.

According to its annual report that year, "the costs of running the hotels are more relevant to users than the fair value of the buildings as there is no intention to sell".

At a stroke, the company's assets were worth, on paper, hundreds of millions less than before.

Based on the December 2023 balance date, the difference was $377m – a book value of $3.46 a share versus a fair value of $5.84, according to a helpful table in the annual report.



Snippet 2-
The way to think about Millennium & Copthorne would therefore not be as a hotel company. It's more like a real estate company that runs hotels to generate cashflow in between long-term property transactions, just as residential property investors get rent from tenants but are really in it for the capital gain.

Seen in that light, the value of its hotels as real estate is highly relevant and the board has been bullshitting its minority shareholders.



You want more then NBR would love you to subscribe......

For the poet ( give me an email if you still have mine and we can discuss further ) I've got a few of these MCK ords.

Notes about the challenge rules -

1.  Need 10% of the outstanding shares of the relevant class to object to the consideration to trigger the review. The relevant class is all the holders that have not accepted the offer. Say holders of 5 million shares do not accept the offer then there must be written objections from 500k. If the hurdle of 10% is not met the 'final' price is the final price paid.

2. Written objections must be received within 10 business days.

3. The independent expert is appointed by the Takeovers Panel not MCK or their independent directors.

4. The valuation basis is assuming the whole company is for sale ( so will negate the fact a majority shareholder wants to screw over the minorities )

5 - Lots of info on the Takeover Panel website including prior case decisions.

Quote from: Crackity on Jan 30, 2025, 08:53 PMFor the poet ( give me an email if you still have mine and we can discuss further ) I've got a few of these MCK ords.

Notes about the challenge rules -

1.  Need 10% of the outstanding shares of the relevant class to object to the consideration to trigger the review. The relevant class is all the holders that have not accepted the offer. Say holders of 5 million shares do not accept the offer then there must be written objections from 500k. If the hurdle of 10% is not met the 'final' price is the final price paid.

2. Written objections must be received within 10 business days.

3. The independent expert is appointed by the Takeovers Panel not MCK or their independent directors.

4. The valuation basis is assuming the whole company is for sale ( so will negate the fact a majority shareholder wants to screw over the minorities )

5 - Lots of info on the Takeover Panel website including prior case decisions.

Thanks for that BP.

I think that it is all a bit of a moot point though. If the bidder gets to 90% then they will already have had acceptances for more than 50% of the shares subject to the takeover offer and hence no rights of appeal available to holdouts. If they don't get to the 90% acceptance then they can't buy any extra shares and the takeover fails entirely.

Let's hope that they raise the offer price considerably in order to get to that 90%

Quote from: Mos on Jan 20, 2025, 01:56 PMTime for the Independent Directors to prove that they are firstly independent and secondly competent. Derisory take over "offer" price. 

Independent Directors have stepped up and shown Independence, Competence and Backbone in the face of the opportunistic low ball offer from the majority shareholder. Great to see.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/446455

MCK Independent Directors say takeover offer is too low

10/02/2025, 15:10 NZDT, MKTUPDTE
MCK Independent Directors say takeover offer is "too low and inadequate" 10 February 2025: Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited (NZX: MCK) advises that it has received notice that CDL Hotels Holdings New Zealand Limited (CDLHH NZ) has sent its takeover offer (Offer) to holders of MCK's ordinary shares (Shares). The Offer price is $2.25 per share for all of the Shares in MCK not already held by CDLHH NZ and follows the Takeover Notice that MCK received from CDLHH NZ on 20 January 2025. CDLHH NZ currently holds 75.8% of MCK's Shares. --Too low and inadequate **The view of the MCK Independent Directors is that the CDLHH NZ offer is too low and is inadequate. The Independent Directors believe that the Offer does not sufficiently reflect the value of MCK's hotel and property net assets, and the benefits that MCK can expect as the hotel and property markets recover**. Chair of the Independent Directors Committee, Leslie Preston, said: "Our view is that the Offer is too low and does not provide adequate value to minority shareholders. We will provide shareholders with a Target Company Statement within the next two weeks that will include more detail, but we are advising shareholders to take no action at this time". Northington Partners Limited has been appointed by MCK to act as the Independent Adviser to provide an independent assessment for shareholders of the merits of the CDLHH NZ offer.

Woefully inadequate. Interesting write-up by Adrian Capital I got in my inbox this morning. Reckons the real fair value is north of $9 with a whole stack of calculations supporting the view.
I bought a cheap ticket to this circus just for the corporate entertainment value because Crackity tipped it to me and Arianne Capital's write-up made sense to me.

I expect a slightly higher but still egregiously low takeover offer will be forthcoming in due course. I expect this fiasco will play out over a number of months so there's a fair bit of corporate entertainment to come.

Quote from: Basil on Feb 10, 2025, 04:26 PMWoefully inadequate. Interesting write-up by Adrian Capital I got in my inbox this morning. Reckons the real fair value is north of $9 with a whole stack of calculations supporting the view.
I bought a cheap ticket to this circus just for the corporate entertainment value because Crackity tipped it to me and Arianne Capital's write-up made sense to me.

I expect a slightly higher but still egregiously low takeover offer will be forthcoming in due course. I expect this fiasco will play out over a number of months so there's a fair bit of corporate entertainment to come.

Should pay the boat diesel bills for a few months at least Bazza - have been buying lots between $2.20 and $2.23 over the last fortnight. It's a no brainer odds on make motza play to me but then again I didn't buy bitcoin ever so what do I know - DYOR peeps 😎

Yes, looking forward to it eventually going back into the water. I'll forward you a copy of that Adrian Capital report. Makes for very interesting reading.

Big day for MCK shareholders tomorrow.  I understand the company is due to report and Nothington are due to release their report on fair value range.
Like others, I see the initial offer price as derisory and contemptuous.
Copy of Adrian Capital's open letter on the matter is here  https://adriancapital.wordpress.com/2025/02/10/millennium-copthorne-hotels-an-open-letter/

Be interesting to see what happens here.  I upgraded my ticket to this circus to "corporate box" level lol.  Hopefully the likes of Milford and ACC have sent a clear message that at $2.25, they're absolutely dreaming.  Go away and make us a serious offer and if its only slightly raised, please print it on toilet paper so we have some use for it.

Quote from: Basil on Feb 23, 2025, 01:18 PMBig day for MCK shareholders tomorrow.  I understand the company is due to report and Nothington are due to release their report on fair value range.
Like others, I see the initial offer price as derisory and contemptuous.
Copy of Adrian Capital's open letter on the matter is here  https://adriancapital.wordpress.com/2025/02/10/millennium-copthorne-hotels-an-open-letter/

Be interesting to see what happens here.  I upgraded my ticket to this circus to "corporate box" level lol.  Hopefully the likes of Milford and ACC have sent a clear message that at $2.25, they're absolutely dreaming.  Go away and make us a serious offer and if its only slightly raised, please print it on toilet paper so we have some use for it.

Big day - it was ...

QuoteMCK FY24 Results for 12 months ended 31 December 2024

Significant uplift in results; material growth in revenue and earnings over past two years
• Revenue $176.2m, up 21.0%
• Operating profit $42.5m, up 32.1%
• Profit before tax $47.1m, up 25.6%
• Profit after tax of $2.8m attributable to MCK shareholders includes a one off, non-cash deferred tax adjustment . Excluding this, profit after tax would be $27.2m
• Total Assets $762.3m (2023: $746.8m) which includes property assets at a book value of $694.1m. Fair market value of property assets assessed as $1.1b as at 31 December 2024
• Net asset backing per share on market value basis assessed as $5.39 per share .

Nominal earnings 17 cts / share (obviously less nice after the tax change one off) not bad and outlook very promising.

SP developed accordingly (and with a wee hype hill in the middle. I completed my buying towards the end of the day, when the excitement started to cool down.

$5.39 net asset basis for a $2.50 share. Lets see how the game plays out ... I do have my fill - and happy to be involved in this game.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 24, 2025, 05:29 PMBig day - it was ...

Nominal earnings 17 cts / share (obviously less nice after the tax change one off) not bad and outlook very promising.

SP developed accordingly (and with a wee hype hill in the middle. I completed my buying towards the end of the day, when the excitement started to cool down.

$5.39 net asset basis for a $2.50 share. Lets see how the game plays out ... I do have my fill - and happy to be involved in this game.

Best of luck to you BP. I sat on this stock for a couple of years waiting for the share price to catch up with  the underlying asset value. dead money it was for me, but hopefully you will have more luck.

Yes, interesting times for us holders for sure.  As you say, extracting out the one-off tax adjustment, eps of 17.17 cps is pretty good and at $2.50 on an undemanding historical PE of 14.5 times.  With a strong outlook I would say you bought well.  I also added a few more today.  Game on and the ball is back in the Singaporeans hands.  I think it's quite clear they have no chance of success at $2.25.  Like you, I am happy to have a ticket to this game.  The offer runs through until 8 May so I don't expect a revised offer to be made quickly.  I suspect that the Singaporeans will be negotiating with institutional shareholders over the next month or thereabouts and we might see institutions sign irrevocable binding agreements to accept a higher offer in due course which will then be presented on the same basis to other shareholders.  More action to happen sometime in April is my guess.  Until then, buckle up for the wild ride.

MCK not the main show at the moment for lowballing majority owners. A case of Life Imitates Art in the "Succession Genre"...

https://www.reuters.com/business/city-developments-executive-chair-accuses-ceo-son-attempting-boardroom-coup-2025-02-26/

Quote from: Mos on Mar 04, 2025, 09:44 PMMCK not the main show at the moment for lowballing majority owners. A case of Life Imitates Art in the "Succession Genre"...

https://www.reuters.com/business/city-developments-executive-chair-accuses-ceo-son-attempting-boardroom-coup-2025-02-26/

Not sure, this fight in the Kwek family is good or bad for MCK retail holders, but is certainly is interesting and relevant. Cheers for the link.

Todays news -


In the biggest real estate transaction of 2025, NZX-listed landlord Precinct Properties has struck a deal to sell its new InterContinental Auckland hotel to Singaporeans for $180 million.

The landlord said today it planned to sell to Singapore Exchange-listed Hotel Properties, an established owner, operator and developer of hotels, resorts and shopping centres in 17 countries.

The buyer has interests in 41 hotels under various brands including InterContinental Hotels Group.

Scott Pritchard, Precinct's chief executive, said the Kiwi company bought the building in 2012.



The building has a rooftop bar and restaurant, while the new hotel has 139 guest rooms.

InterContinental's name has been here previously, on what is now Pullman Auckland Hotel, at the corner of Waterloo Quadrant and Princes St.

That building has been a Hyatt previously.

More than 100 staff work at the hotel, which links directly into Precinct's Commercial Bay shopping centre, alongside Whitcoull's.

Precinct said today that after the hotel sale settles, its committed gearing will reduce by around 3%.

This sale is consistent with Precinct's business strategy and enables the recycling of capital to ensure it is well-positioned to deliver on the next phase of its strategy execution.

"This transaction remains conditional only on subdivision being completed which is expected to be in Q3 2025. [After] completion of the subdivision, Precinct will retain ownership and management of the balance of the property not being divested at One Queen Street, with the hotel sale to include the office space on levels three to five," it said.

Real estate agency and consultancy JLL said it had brokered the deal.

"JLL has just closed the largest hotel asset sale in New Zealand," it said.

"This off-market transaction sets a new record price per key for NZ hotels. It marks Hotel Properties' first investment in the New Zealand market," the agency said.





Interesting that M Social ( freehold MCK ) has 190 rooms and is right in front of the harbour view of Precincts new development site ( being the extension of Comm Bay to the Viaduct).



Hmmmmm.....

Very interesting, really shows how undervalued MCK is at the moment with a SP of $2.25

Quote from: Stockgathering on Mar 06, 2025, 09:49 AMVery interesting, really shows how undervalued MCK is at the moment with a SP of $2.25

Agreed and thanks for the info Crackity. Discount to NTA is FAR greater than OCA AND this is a business with no debt and very strong cash flows with a bright tourism outlook.  No wonder this one is the subject of a takeover and OCA isn't lol

Quote from: Basil on Mar 06, 2025, 11:57 AMAgreed and thanks for the info Crackity. Discount to NTA is FAR greater than OCA AND this is a business with no debt and very strong cash flows with a bright tourism outlook.  No wonder this one is the subject of a takeover and OCA isn't lol

I've been saying that for 5 years, and the price went nowhere. Sincerely hope for current investors that this time is different and underlying value will be finally recognized.

Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Mar 06, 2025, 01:09 PMI've been saying that for 5 years, and the price went nowhere. Sincerely hope for current investors that this time is different and underlying value will be finally recognized.

Thanks.  At least it hasn't gone down.  OCA well under half what it was trading at 4 years ago. 

Seems that CDL Singapore has patched up differences, so hopefully we will get some resolution/progress on MCK bid

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2025/03/13/singapore-billionaire-kwek-drops-case-against-ceo-son/

and

We will all continue to focus on strengthening CDL's business, in accordance with good corporate governance, now and in the future, including completing the raft of landmark developments underway across Singapore and globally, furthering the expansion of various brands under Millennium & Copthorne, continuing our capital recycling initiative and above all, maximising shareholder value," reads the statement by Leng Beng on behalf of the board.

Encouraging, thanks for sharing.

Yep, cheers for the update. Funny things happen in families.

I suspect however that this won't impact on the takeover process in NZ. Money at stake is pity cash for the Kweks, hardly worthwhile to bother the CEO or boardchair.

I assume they (some middle level regional manager) are waiting for the end of the offer period and might even hope that some people sign away their shares for the low ball offer. Some always do.

Then they will approach the larger holders (like e.g. ACC) and negotiate on a price with them. If they are successful, than this is probably what we all will get (remember - if more than 90 % of all shareholders agree to a price, everybody must sell at that price - and the Kweks hold already more than 70%).

Lets hope the respective ACC fund manager has a back bone and an incentive to show it.

Yes I would think negotiations are going on behind the scenes between ACC and other institutions and the Kwek family.
One would hope ACC managing a $50 Billion + fund and others will be guided by the independent valuation mid-point of $4.70 and tell the Kwek's to come back with a fair and reasonable offer or go away and stop wasting our time.

As you imply, they're only mopping up ~ 24% minority interests, it's not like it's a full takeover and they are the ones who only have a modest stake of 20% already, so I don't see any profoundly good reason why ACC or anyone else should accept an offer price materially below the midpoint of the valuation range.

For the first time, in many years I actually thought Northington did a bloody good job with their report.

My guess is we will see a revised offer in April / May but whether that's a good one remains to be seen.  Remember that Asian investors are well known to play the "long game" with negotiations to try and wear people down so it's important to be staunch and resilient.  I'm going to take a "very dogged" approach. 

Offer increased to $2.80 and is unconditional now

Still a joke IMO

They claim to have received acceptances for 2.8% of shares at $2.80. I can't see how they could go unconditional without reaching the 90% threshold required under the companies act.


Looks as if they have been granted an exemption to %%%% their minorities. Unbelievable

https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/Exemptions/Takeovers-Code-CDL-Investments-New-Zealand-Limited-Exemption-Notice-2025.pdf

Quote from: Poet on Apr 22, 2025, 02:08 PMThey claim to have received acceptances for 2.8% of shares at $2.80. I can't see how they could go unconditional without reaching the 90% threshold required under the companies act.


Looks as if they have been granted an exemption to %%%% their minorities. Unbelievable

https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/Exemptions/Takeovers-Code-CDL-Investments-New-Zealand-Limited-Exemption-Notice-2025.pdf

Says all the conditions have been satisfied ( ie OIO ) or waived ( ie - the 90% acceptance condition? )

They gonna take all they can at $2.80 but not necessarily get to 90% is my take on it.

They increase to $3 I reckon ACC and Milfies might cave and then it will be game over....

Less than I was hoping for BUT global macroeconomic factors need to be carefully considered.

I am really curious what you two guys make of the postings on the other channel about the huge discount to NTA CDL is trading at on the Singapore exchange ?

Suppose that doesn't really matter.  $2.80 is full and final offer this time and then they have stated no new takeover will be forthcoming within 9 months from 22 April 2025.

Hold out for a better price next year or take the money and run.  Hmmm

Quote from: Crackity on Apr 22, 2025, 03:07 PMSays all the conditions have been satisfied ( ie OIO ) or waived ( ie - the 90% acceptance condition? )

They gonna take all they can at $2.80 but not necessarily get to 90% is my take on it.

They increase to $3 I reckon ACC and Milfies might cave and then it will be game over....

Agree with your interpretation re conditions.

Re improving the offer - they said in their letter that they won't increase the offer and not make a subsequent takeover offer within the next nine months. Which means either holders need to sell or be prepared to wait for a long time or hope they are telling porkies.

QuoteAccordingly, $2.80 is the final and best price that CDLHH NZ is willing to pay under the Offer. CDLHH NZ will not vary the Offer Price again and will not make a subsequent takeover offer under the Takeovers Code for the ordinary shares in MCK within nine months from the date of this letter.

So, yes - from todays perspective the offer is clearly ridiculously low.

Which means either selling now or potentially waiting (without divvies?) for a long time until they make their next takeover offer.

I guess the question is - whose pain is larger? Their pain for having to keep paying the listing costs, or the pain of retail holders for having in some cases a quite large investment parcels with very low liquidity, potentially no income and at some stage an unknown sell price depending on future developments.

On the other hand - if the big holders would have agreed to $2.80, than they would not need to threaten holders, they could just take over the lot at their price. Which means ACC (and others) are so far not happy. Might be worthwhile waiting until they manage to change that.

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".  $2.80 is a ~ 40% discount on the independent appraisal report mid point of valuation ($4.70).  There are other listed property companies trading at similar discounts that pay outstanding dividends, e.g. ARG at a 33% discount to NTA, paying 6.65% tax free, (worth 10% gross to 33% taxpayers).

Quote from: Basil on Apr 23, 2025, 02:43 PM"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".  $2.80 is a ~ 40% discount on the independent appraisal report mid point of valuation ($4.70).  There are other listed property companies trading at similar discounts that pay outstanding dividends, e.g. ARG at a 33% discount to NTA, paying 6.65% tax free, (worth 10% gross to 33% taxpayers).

True.

Still wondering how the big investors are going to play it. Not sure when ACC bought their parcel, but they well might have paid more for it.

I hear NZSA is weighing in again as well, and wondering whether the independent directors will change their tune.

Lets see how the story plays out.

Investors face a clear choice.  Take a certain $2.80 for some or all of their shares which is payable on 15 May, (I can unpack why its that date more if people want me too) or wait and see what happens in due course.

CDL have committed to no increase in price with the current takeover in the terms of reference pertaining to their agreement with Salt and others so they are legally bound not to increase the price this time and that a further takeover cannot be made before 9 months from their letter of 22 April, so that's at the earliest, 22 January 2026.

Not advice, as every shareholder needs to make their own decision, but there does appear to be a playbook that CDL are working too.  They had very similar deadlines and processes and about a 9 month delay between takeover offers when they took over the U.K. operations of a listed company there.  Crackity has more detail.  There's a very real but not certain chance there will be a higher offer at some stage in the future, quite possibly early 2026, for those with the patience to hold out.

The other option worth considering that I am pondering is having a type of "each way" bet on the outcome.  The offer document allows partial acceptance or total acceptance or do nothing and total rejection. Maybe accepting the $2.80 for some of one's shares and taking a position that there is likely to be a better offer for the rest, in due course makes sense.  Hmmm

P.S. In a behind the paywall article on businessdesk, ACC have stated they are not accepting the offer as its egregiously low and unreasonable.  They hold ~ 4.5%.

Interesting price action at the close with all available stock at $2.80 bought.  Obviously, that buyer getting decent volume at that price and paying brokerage has no intention of losing that brokerage cost and selling into the takeover offer at $2.80 next month which begs the question seeing as ACC see the offer as egregiously low, might they with their very deep pockets or some other major investor bid the share price slightly above the $2.80 takeover price next week thereby throwing the cat amongst the pigeons with this attempted takeover ?  Interesting times for MCK shareholders.  Could be an interesting week coming up next week with independent directors set to give their verdict on the new price on Monday.

I am increasingly of the view that if one holds out, CDL are going to have to offer ACC and other holdout's materially more next year to finalize the takeover.  Question is, how much more is materially more?  That's the $64,000 question.  Hmmm

ACC hold 4.52% and these are extracts of their view

The Accident Compensation Corporation said CDL Hotels Holdings New Zealand's revised bid for Millennium & Copthorne Hotels NZ shares is "unreasonable and opportunistic" and it won't accept it. "While ongoing ownership of shares in a highly illiquid company is not an attractive prospect for shareholders, we believe the alternative on offer is a materially worse option," it said. The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC), which holds about 4.5% of the shares in Millennium & Copthorne Hotels NZ (MCK) (excluding preference shares), is a long-term investor and "will continue to work to maximise value for minority shareholders".

According to ACC, CDL's bid represents a 40% discount to the midpoint of the valuation range determined by an independent valuer and more than a 50% discount to the midpoint after adjusting for CDL's stated intention to redeem the preference shares at $1.70. Under pressure already "The share price prior to the takeover announcement had been under pressure for a considerable time due to selling pressure from a large shareholder, whom CDL purchased the remaining shares from in October 2024," said ACC. "This selling, coupled with the lack of liquidity that CDL had been unwilling to address, cyclically low earnings and acquisitions which appear to be value destructive, had resulted in MCK's share price falling to levels not seen since 2016." It went on to say "the unreasonable nature of the bid" is highlighted by MCK's recent investment (in a joint venture with CDL) in the Brisbane Sofitel and the acquisition of the Mayfair Hotel – assets which CDL is now offering to take off shareholders' hands for cents in the dollar.  Similarly, the process to redeem the preference shares at a materially lower price than the shares is "egregious".  An independent adviser's valuation range was $4.40 to $5.00 per ordinary share, with a midpoint of $4.70.   "The current offer of $2.80 would seem to fall well short of that," said NZ Shareholders Association CEO Oliver Mander.   The offer "doesn't reflect anything like the underlying value of the company, even at $2.80," he said.

I think people need to know where ACC stand on this.

My updated view having read all 41 pages of the Target company statement and the Northington independent valuers 42 page report. 
1. I think Northington have done an outstanding job, I cannot fault their report.
2. It is noted there is ample evidence to support their going concern valuation of MCK with the hotel assets priced at the low end of 14 times EBITDA and high end of 16 times.  Supporting evidence includes prices CDL themselves and MCK it5self paid recently for assets including a) the full takeover of Millenium and Copthorne Hotels United Kingdom, 16.2 times, the recent acquisition of half share in Sofitel Brisbane 17.9 times and the very recent acquisition of the Mayfair Hotel in Christchurch, 15 times EBITDA.
3. It should be noted that Northington's report encompasses capitalization of head office costs to run MCK at 9 times and that the midpoint at $4.70 is in fact a lot lower than the asset backing due to capitalization of management costs
4. The balance sheet is strong and MCK have a $120m line of credit facility that is largely untouched.
5. Only entering into a 9-month hiatus with Salt and others that agreed to accept the $2.80 unconditional bid before another takeover can be launched is a really big clue as to what is highly likely to happen in due course.
6. Happy to take ACC at their word that CDL are trying to take over MCK at over an egregious 50% discount to NTA when you factor into account the conversion terms of the preference shares of which there are many, 52.7m, (conversion is at the 20 day VWAP price)  CDL own 91.34%
7. CDL's response that the shares are illiquid and we're doing you a favour by taking them off your hands at $2.80 holds no sway with me.  Their motive is clear.  Conditional offer at $2.25 was Act one in this play. Unconditional offer at $2.80 is Act 2 in this play and they are hoping to get as many as possible at this huge discount.  Another takeover with a materially higher offer in due course is Act 3 and that possibly might lead to a contested valuation regarding compulsory acquisition if they hit the 90% threshold next year, maybe Act 4 in this play.  I see no logical reason why they won't try and take this over with a much higher price in due course, especially with all the advantages of redeeming the preference shares for a very low price.  They paid 16.2 times EBITDA to take over Millenium and Copthorne hotels in the U.K..  Why wouldn't they pay 14 times ERBITDA for the N.Z. operations which is the low side of Northington's valuation at $4.36 ?  Then there's accrued earnings since 31 December 2024 and if they're not paying a dividend that needs to be factored into account as well.

Decision. I will not be accepting $2.80 for any of my shares.  CDL will need to make me a serious offer starting with a $4 handle in 2026 and I'll reconsider my position, until then, I'm sitting tight and will see how this plays itself out.

Note that on page 29 of the independent report that MCK are budgeting on a ~ 23% increase in hotel revenue in 2025 and we are gradually recovering from a cyclical low in earnings after Covid.  Before Covid this company was making eps of 31 cps and they have added a lot of hotel capacity since then so we could see as much as 40 cps in earnings per share in due course.

Their 9-month standdown period before they can make another takeover offer ends on 22 January 2026.
I look forward to seeing a substantially higher offer in due course.

Good post Basil
I think i will be holding on to my shares as well.

Quote from: Poet on Apr 27, 2025, 01:50 PMGood post Basil
I think i will be holding on to my shares as well.

Agree & Likewise .

Great write-up Basil

Independent directors recommend you DO NOT ACCEPT the higher $2.80 offer.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450563/attachment/442126/450563-442126.pdf

Interesting bid in the system: 500k shares at $2.78. I reccon this will support the SP as long as it stays live.

Somebody with spare dry powder in play (unless this is a strawman of the Kwek family, but this would be illegal, wouldn't it)?

I guess the directors recommendation (in full) says it all. Kweks playing with minority shareholders and they clearly have the longer financial breath. If they decide to play hardball, this could take a long time to get right for minorities.

On the other hand, as Basil pointed out - the MCK takeover in the UK was (with ok-ish outcome for the shareholders) done in less than two years after a similar scenario.

I sold some of mine (my MCK parcel somewhat increased over the recent months) last week for $2.80 at market. While I had to pay for the broker, at least this made sure that the Kweks didn't benefit from their tactic of intimidation.

Intend to keep the rest (still ~10% of our NZ portfolio) until they come up with a fairer price.

Just wondering, though what all this means for CDI. Maybe its not the best idea after all to be minority shareholder in a company controlled by super rich people with a tendency to abuse their financial power?

Interesting price and depth action today. Now bid at $2.80 and no need to wait for your money for those prepared to get low balled at that price.

Will be interesting if it gets bid above $2.80 which wouldn't surprise me.

After Salt and another institution accepted the $2.80 they've subsequently only got another ~ 214k shares lifting their stake by 0.2% to 78.88%, so far.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450726/attachment/442310/450726-442310.pdf
Annual meeting is at the Grand Millenium Auckland on 30 May at 1.00 p.m. and will be a very good chance to meet other minority shareholders and hopefully have a chat with ACC's investment manager.   It will also be a good chance to thank the independent directors for showing the backbone they have.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450814/attachment/442422/450814-442422.pdf

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.?
I think you should buy a few CDI shares.
Only one reason.You could then make a day of fun and mayhem on the 30th at The Grand Millennium.
CDI agm starts at 10am,and after lunch at 1pm MCK's agm.
I look forward to watching your antics as the meetings will be online.....lol
 

Southern Lad on the other channel posted this.

QuoteCDL Hotel Holdings New Zealand Ltd holding in MCK at 79.634% with three days until offer closes. Given ACC stating it won't accept, on-market buying at reasonable volumes and lack of independent directors support, I'm assuming not much chance they get to 90%. Assuming they fall short, will be interesting to see what happens to the share price over the next few months. Presumably shareholders who have chosen not to sell at $2.80 will be reluctant to sell for less in any volume.

Disclosure was just after 5.00 p.m. today so i missed it but here it is.  Still not quite at 80%  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/451053/attachment/442689/451053-442689.pdf

When they started this they had 75.9% so they have managed to increase that by 3.73%..  There are three days until the offer closes on 8 May at 5.00 p.m.

Sharesies holders can't accept the offer even if they want to  :o

This response forwarded to me - appalling by Sharesies



Thanks for reaching out 🍍

Unfortunately, we don't currently support elective participation in voluntary takeover offers. However, if the offer reaches 90% acceptance, all outstanding shares will be compulsorily acquired and the consideration will be paid out to all shareholders.

If you'd like to participate individually, you can transfer your shares to your personal CSN and accept the offer by following the instructions in the "how to accept this offer" section in the offer document.

You can also read the latest director's recommendation here.

Please let me know if you have any further questions.

Kind regards,
Susie
Susie
Sharesies

Quote from: Crackity on May 06, 2025, 11:48 AMSharesies holders can't accept the offer even if they want to  :o

This response forwarded to me - appalling by Sharesies



Thanks for reaching out 🍍

Unfortunately, we don't currently support elective participation in voluntary takeover offers. However, if the offer reaches 90% acceptance, all outstanding shares will be compulsorily acquired and the consideration will be paid out to all shareholders.

If you'd like to participate individually, you can transfer your shares to your personal CSN and accept the offer by following the instructions in the "how to accept this offer" section in the offer document.

You can also read the latest director's recommendation here.

Please let me know if you have any further questions.

Kind regards,
Susie
Susie
Sharesies

WTF...

Ask for it to be transferred at their cost.

What a sad and pathetic situation that is for MCK shareholders with Sharsies then, but Sharsies are probably doing their customers a favour.  Wait until the real takeover next year at fair value $4.70 + accrued earnings, say $5 in total by early 2026.  This current attempt is good old fashioned highway robbery masquerading as a takeover attempt.

Sharesies is not a "full service" service :) They do not support a lot of things. Whilst they support most corporate actions on the NZX, and support dividend reinvestment schemes for the main companies on NZX, they offer very little support for ASX and USA. For example if an ASX company has a capital raising for a holding you own on Sharesies you cannot participate through Sharesies. A serious drawback for anyone who fancies their chances investing in smaller ASX companies that are capital hungry, e.g. the miners.

Quote from: Raven on May 06, 2025, 04:33 PMSharesies is not a "full service" service :)

They are apparently the disrupters aiming for the main stream - this is their front page on sharesies


Sharesies exists to make investing easy and accessible. Before, investing was too hard, too complex, and too damned scary for too many. Deciding to build an accessible digital investment platform was a no-brainer.

Our investing experience works towards giving people the confidence and control to invest. We believe that by giving someone the opportunity to invest—while supporting them to learn—we'll create a community of financially empowered people.

Now, over 800,000 investors are using Sharesies in Aotearoa and Australia. We're continuing to break down the barriers to investing for more Kiwis, and create new ways to help people develop their wealth.


So far they are not walking the talk I reckon


Booo Sharesies ( and I'm not a customer / I've gone for the too hard and scary option  8) )

Offer closes 5.00 p.m. tomorrow but I agree with a comment Crackity made to me recently that its likely to be extended as they try and shake as much low hanging fruit off the tree from weak holders as they can.

Looks like hotels hot property
 ( paywalled)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/super-fund-russell-lockwood-selling-600m-national-hotel-portfolio/PHATT747IVEQPPQJVKRHT6EYKQ/

Threshold not reached.....which is not really surprising....is it?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/451358

Another "boo" for terrible service at Sharesies.

I was trying to close out a position of 4,000 shares in its entirety using a limit sell order to match a buyer who wanted 10,000 shares.  I used a limit order to match their buy price, where the spread was around 4c on a $5 share.  Sharesies wouldn't put my order through at my price, instead putting me in a queue at the lowest sell price.  I didn't want to have my sell order nibbled at with multiple 5 and 10 shares purchases so I put a question to their help.  This was the reply from a human (after I initially battled with an AI bot):

{edited for brevity} "Limit orders are sent to the market as market orders.  They join the back of the queue at market price. Limit orders can't skip the queue and trade right away. Once your order gets to the front of the queue then the limit price comes into play. If you get to the front of the queue and we can get your limit price or better, then your order is filled."

That's pretty bad service IMO.  The buyer had been sitting there for some hours, as had the lowest seller.  Surely the point of a limit order is to jump the "queue" to sell at a lower price ....I can do it with a broker so why not with Sharesies?  I suppose it's one of the risks in trying to minimise brokerage fees by using Sharesies...

Quote from: Crackity on May 06, 2025, 11:48 AMSharesies holders can't accept the offer even if they want to  :o

This response forwarded to me - appalling by Sharesies



Thanks for reaching out 🍍

Unfortunately, we don't currently support elective participation in voluntary takeover offers. However, if the offer reaches 90% acceptance, all outstanding shares will be compulsorily acquired and the consideration will be paid out to all shareholders.

If you'd like to participate individually, you can transfer your shares to your personal CSN and accept the offer by following the instructions in the "how to accept this offer" section in the offer document.

Ferg, you know how this works mate.  you get what you pay for.  If you pay bugger all, you get crap service.

Interesting that the takeover offer has now closed, (I thought it might get extended).  Looks like, (subject to final wash up of possible late acceptances) they got 83.9%, about 8% more of the company or approx. 8 million shares at a dirt cheap price.  I am sure CDL are happy with that result.

I reckon its "game on", probably sometime in 2026 for their next attempt to mop up remaining ~ 16% of holders.  Next time they will have to offer a more fair and reasonable price.  Keep in mind that all they have to do is offer a fair and reasonable price for 16% of the shares and then they can mop up the ~ 9% of preference shares they don;t own at an egregiously unreasonable price, (20 day VWAP)  ACC reckon $2.80 was at over a 50% discount to NTA taking into account the preference share situation.

Quote from: Basil on May 09, 2025, 11:50 AMFerg, you know how this works mate.  you get what you pay for.  If you pay bugger all, you get crap service.

Interesting that the takeover offer has now closed, (I thought it might get extended).  Looks like, (subject to final wash up of possible late acceptances) they got 83.9%, about 8% more of the company or approx. 8 million shares at a dirt cheap price.  I am sure CDL are happy with that result.

I reckon its "game on", probably sometime in 2026 for their next attempt to mop up remaining ~ 16% of holders.  Next time they will have to offer a more fair and reasonable price.  Keep in mind that all they have to do is offer a fair and reasonable price for 16% of the shares and then they can mop up the ~ 9% of preference shares they don;t own at an egregiously unreasonable price, (20 day VWAP)  ACC reckon $2.80 was at over a 50% discount to NTA taking into account the preference share situation.

They can use the creep provisions to get to 90%.  Just sit in the market and absorb the people who suddenly need cash 

https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/guidance/guidance-notes/creeping

Creeping provisions are here.  I'm not going to try and untangle that today as to whether they are precluded from creeping for a period of time or not.  Obviously they've just increased their stake by 8% so whether that temporarily stops them from creeping further for some period of time or  not, I will leave trying to understand that for another day, (had a headache all morning and not looking to make it worse)..  I welcome anyone else having a go at opining on this.

Quote from: Basil on May 09, 2025, 01:19 PMhttps://www.takeovers.govt.nz/guidance/guidance-notes/creeping

Creeping provisions are here.  I'm not going to try and untangle that today as to whether they are precluded from creeping for a period of time or not.  Obviously they've just increased their stake by 8% so whether that temporarily stops them from creeping further for some period of time or  not, I will leave trying to understand that for another day, (had a headache all morning and not looking to make it worse)..  I welcome anyone else having a go at opining on this.

Sorry to hear about your headache ...  get out and have a good walk - this might help in this amazing weather (I understand the sun is laughing all over our three islands :) ;

Not a takeover specialist by any means, but just looking into the guidance notes from the takeover panel, you well might have a point:

Quote...
A holder or controller of between 50% and 90% of the voting rights in a Code company can increase its control percentage by "creeping" under rule 7(e) of the Code.
...
Accordingly, this rule allows a person to increase their holding by no more than 5% of the Code company's total voting rights in a 12-month period. The increase is to be calculated by reference to the lowest holding during the last 12 months.
The effect is that a person cannot take advantage of rule 7(e) if their control percentage has already increased by 5% or more from its lowest point over the last year, regardless of how that increase in control percentage came about.
For example, if a shareholder's control percentage of a Code company went from 0% to 75% by a shareholder-approved allotment made on 31 March 2013, that shareholder is not able to increase its control percentage again until after 31 March 2014 (unless it made a Code offer or obtained shareholder approval). The shareholder could then move up to 80%.
...

(Highlight by me)
Source:
https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/guidance/guidance-notes/creeping

So, looks like they will need to wait 12 months from the 8th of May 2025 (or probably 12th of May?) before they can start creeping.

Creepy, isn't it?

Thanks BP, that's how I and two others I have been talking to about this see it too...or they could make a another takeover attempt on any date after 22 January 2026.

MCK half year results out

Hotel ops up / CDI contribution down

$3.46 NTA in the presso is at historical cost - see last annual report  for further clarification to this misleading figure....

I'm a buyer at $2.80 if anyone is bored waiting till end of Jan 2026  8)

Yeap, quite satisfactory result given the bottom of the cycle weakness of the economy with hotel revenue up nicely by 15%  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456579/attachment/449236/456579-449236.pdf

Its game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.

Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 12, 2025, 10:38 AMYeap, quite satisfactory result given the bottom of the cycle weakness of the economy with hotel revenue up nicely by 15%  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456579/attachment/449236/456579-449236.pdf

Its game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.

Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

Hard to say. They well might hope for another below average summer season and put the next pick in as soon as possible.

Market value of Equity: $6.95. Hi, this would be great!
Analysts saying something between $4.40 and $5.00;
Cost value of Equity: $4.39 ... suppose this would bring them the remaining 6% or so.
Price ticker starting with a 3: not sure ... might cost them more in process costs than offering a bit more.

So - I guess my idea would be $4.40 (and maybe a wee plus), but hey - we will see.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/458826/attachment/452163/458826-452163.pdf

Looks like a high quality manager.

Just a little over 4 months until the majority shareholder that control's 84% + about 1% more with a friendly family member is enabled to be in a position to make another takeover attempt.  9 month agreed stand-down period ends 22 January 2026.  They've made good progress so far, lifting their stake from ~ 70% this time last year.

Only need another 5% from external parties to move to compulsory acquisition.  Mid point of independent report in February 2025 was $4.70 which is 69% more than the current share price.  No guarantee of course that they will make another takeover offer but I'd be surprised if they didn't at some stage next year.  Disc: Holding a significant position.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 12, 2025, 10:38 AMIts game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.

Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

Gosh, that's only two and a half months away now. 

Whats to stop them low-balling on the final offer like what happened to restauarant brands?

ACC own just on 5% and are the kingmaker. They're generally considered to be astute investors. They'll negotiate hard 

Quote from: Basil on Aug 12, 2025, 10:38 AMYeap, quite satisfactory result given the bottom of the cycle weakness of the economy with hotel revenue up nicely by 15%  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456579/attachment/449236/456579-449236.pdf

Its game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.
Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

Just on 2 weeks until the standstill agreement ends and another takeover offer could potentially be launched.  I think its fair to say looking at the share price that anticipation is building.  This was one of my picks in the share competition and I am also holding a significant stake in my real portfolio.  The last independent appraisal report had a mid point fair value of $4.70 but that was nearly a year ago and tourism has recovered since then.  Interesting times for MCK shareholders.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 06, 2026, 06:07 PMJust on 2 weeks until the standstill agreement ends and another takeover offer could potentially be launched.  I think its fair to say looking at the share price that anticipation is building.  This was one of my picks in the share competition and I am also holding a significant stake in my real portfolio.  The last independent appraisal report had a mid point fair value of $4.70 but that was nearly a year ago and tourism has recovered since then.  Interesting times for MCK shareholders.

Someone was keen yesterday - took out all of the sells at 3.05, 3.06, 3.08 that had been sitting there for a week or two.

Quote from: alkebab on Jan 06, 2026, 06:40 PMSomeone was keen yesterday - took out all of the sells at 3.05, 3.06, 3.08 that had been sitting there for a week or two.

Yes, bit of a buggar, did it just before I was going to do the same lol.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 06, 2026, 06:45 PMYes, bit of a buggar, did it just before I was going to do the same lol.

Looks like we might be done with sizeable sell offers at the $3 mark. Haven't seen anything come up since late Monday and piles of buys are starting to form.

Ignoring the BS sells (for now) at $3.9 and $4, I think we might still get something come up at say $3.50. 

Edit: LOL just as I posted the $3.5 sell pops up

Someone is 'watching' you alkebab!

Hmmm - same takeover premium applied to Rakon today would give a bid price of approx $5.45 for MCK

Jeez

Gosh its only 1 week to go until the agreed 9 month stand-down period ends and another takeover offer could be forthcoming.  I think they will know that if they leave it another year the future possible takeover price will need to be materially higher.  We're in very good hands with Blair Cooper at ACC in the drivers seat as the kingmaker.    I was very impressed with his professionalism at last years annual meeting and it was great chatting to him before and after the meeting.  I think he's 110% committed to getting the best price for all remaining shareholders if / when another takeover offer is made.  https://investmentnews.co.nz/investment-news/acc-flags-material-concerns-over-shareholder-rights-roll-back/
All those who showed dogged determination with rejecting the $2.80 takeover offer in early 2025 appear to be very well positioned.

Ooooo - very auspicious day tommoz - only 26 days to the start of the Chinese New Year

And nine months to the day and the expiry of the warranties given from the last takeover  :-X

Yes indeed. At close of business on 22 January the 9 month stand-still agreement under the previous takeover attempt ends. Last year the original takeover offer was made on 20 January.
We could potentially see another offer as early as this Friday 23rd.

Interesting times for MCK shareholders.

2.7 million shares just crossed at $3.30.   That's 2.5% of mck if my calculations are right. 
Does anyone have any insite into this trade 🤔

Nope

Things will be clearer next week  8)

I think it's reasonable to assume CDL were the buyer, and if that's the case that takes them to 86.5% with approx another 1% held by a Kwek family member, call it 87.5% in total.

My goodness, what an intriguing situation.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 30, 2026, 05:49 PMI think it's reasonable to assume CDL were the buyer, and if that's the case that takes them to 86.5% with approx another 1% held by a Kwek family member, call it 87.5% in total.

My goodness, what an intriguing situation.

It is maybe a bit complicated but don't the takeover code creep provisions apply here? Maybe the creep provision limit of 5% doesn't include increases that were subject to acceptances in a takeover offer.

Current Status
The creep rule under rule 7(e) remains unchanged, allowing holders or controllers with 50-90% of voting rights to increase by up to 5% over any 12-month period from the lowest point in that timeframe. Guidance notes and overviews from 2021-2024 confirm this structure, with no updates noted as of early 2026.

Quote from: Poet on Jan 30, 2026, 06:16 PMIt is maybe a bit complicated but don't the takeover code creep provisions apply here? Maybe the creep provision limit of 5% doesn't include increases that were subject to acceptances in a takeover offer.

Current Status
The creep rule under rule 7(e) remains unchanged, allowing holders or controllers with 50-90% of voting rights to increase by up to 5% over any 12-month period from the lowest point in that timeframe. Guidance notes and overviews from 2021-2024 confirm this structure, with no updates noted as of early 2026.

I think Singapore can't buy on market till May?

If it is ACC buying they can now deliver 7.2% approx to any CDL takeover - that would guarantee CDL 90%

Should be a sub shareholder notice next week if this is the case

Interesting

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets/shares/hotel-shares-interest-buoys-end-of-month-action-market-close/premium/3KJKODGATZDL3AQOSAJQE6MSZU/

Did anyone read this.    In the article they think it's CDL and the next offer might be coming back with a offer of $3.30 a share.   Talk about low balling

Goodson sold all 1,485,441 MCK shares Salt held into the $2.80 offer at the end of April last year

He's not the sharpest fund management tool in the shed I reckon

Quote from: Poet on Jan 30, 2026, 06:16 PMIt is maybe a bit complicated but don't the takeover code creep provisions apply here? Maybe the creep provision limit of 5% doesn't include increases that were subject to acceptances in a takeover offer.

Current Status
The creep rule under rule 7(e) remains unchanged, allowing holders or controllers with 50-90% of voting rights to increase by up to 5% over any 12-month period from the lowest point in that timeframe. Guidance notes and overviews from 2021-2024 confirm this structure, with no updates noted as of early 2026.

Thanks for your thoughts. Perhaps you are correct which adds further intrigue as to who the buyer is.  As Crackity has suggested, if not CDL then ACC are the next most likely buyer.

If ACC is the purchaser, it'll give them close to 50% of the shares not owned by CDL (post the takeover CDL had 83.923% and the last Companies Office annual return on 1 October 2025 disclosed the ACC holding was 4.72%, so adding 2.55% gets ACC to 7.27%).  ACC may well have increased their shareholding further since 1 October.

At this level, given that other shareholders will also follow their lead, ACC can effectively:

1.  Stop CDL getting to the 90% compulsory acquisition threshold; and

2.  Assuming ACC can negotiate a price with CDL that they can live with, remove the ability of any non-accepting shareholders to challenge the takeover consideration because more than 50% of the outstanding shares will have been accepted into the offer.

My sense is that ACC are determined to get a fair price and won't be easily cajoled into accepting a low price on a take it or leave it basis.  CDL better off having a deal agreed with ACC before launching another takeover offer because they then get a guaranteed outcome.

Herald seems to think it's CDL.  I guess we might find out monday.
Do you think they will just low all as suggested over and over again till they creep to the magic 90%

As I understand the Takeovers Code, CDL can't increase their shareholding again under the creep provisions until 12 months after the close of the 2025 takeover offer (which was 8 May).  They can then acquire up to 5% in any 12 months, which they could do until they got to 90% and then compulsory acquire the balance however shareholders would have the right (subject to some thresholds being met on the number of objecting shares) to challenge the consideration and have it set by an independent expert.  However, the number of shares available to CDL over time may be limited given my observation that a number of minority shareholders are determined not to 'give their shares away'.

Looking at the share register, there are not a lot of places the 2.7m shares traded yesterday could have come from (assuming the trades are genuine arms length transactions).  On the basis CDL weren't allowed to purchase without a takeover offer, the obvious purchaser was ACC but could clearly be anyone looking to take a position.  We may not know unless the purchaser needs to disclose due to having a 5% or greater position.  The vendors have to be CDL, ACC, Citibank Nominees, HSBC Nominees, JP Morgan Chase Bank or NZX WT Nominees.

Link to the Companies Office website regarding MCK:

The last time the Particulars of Shareholdings was updated on 1 Oct 2025. ACC has certainly been buying, along with CDL. Though this was only updated months after the takeover offer was announced, so the timeframe is unclear. You may need to refer to previous announcements to get a better idea.
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/495300/39123566/entityFilingRequirement?backurl=%2Fcompanies%2Fapp%2Fui%2Fpages%2Fcompanies%2F495300%2Fdocuments

The current shareholdings list:
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/495300/shareholdings

Looking at the minute chart, there were a flurry of trades late yesterday on the market in 75-200-300-900k batches. Could this be the same buyer buying from multiple shareholders?

Well If that's the case and it's not CDL buying.
The next question will be who's sold... 
On the share registery obviously who have CDL with 88% ish and then acc with maybe 4%.  Next is 0.5%. So that's only 1.5mill shares. So did someone manage to buy a block from multiple buyers. Or could CDL be actually selling down?

I suspect that CDL is doing the buying.  If it was ACC purchasing it would have made more sense for them to accumlate the shares well before the nine-month period after the takeover expired.  However, Southern Lad has a really good point.  That CDL can not increase their holding due to the Takeovers Code.  Does anyone else have a perspective on that?

If CDL is not purchasing the shares then it would be great if ACC was the buyer.  Alternatively, it could be another disruptor such as Harvest Lane - that often makes purchases in low-ball takeover offers hoping for a higher price.  That would be good news as I personally feel that MCK is valued well over $5. 

It will be an interesting few days while we wait.  Any further ideas?

Quote from: Interested321 on Feb 01, 2026, 08:03 PMI suspect that CDL is doing the buying.  If it was ACC purchasing it would have made more sense for them to accumlate the shares well before the nine-month period after the takeover expired.  However, Southern Lad has a really good point.  That CDL can not increase their holding due to the Takeovers Code.  Does anyone else have a perspective on that?

If CDL is not purchasing the shares then it would be great if ACC was the buyer.  Alternatively, it could be another disruptor such as Harvest Lane - that often makes purchases in low-ball takeover offers hoping for a higher price.  That would be good news as I personally feel that MCK is valued well over $5. 

It will be an interesting few days while we wait.  Any further ideas?

I don't think it can be CDL yet  due to the creep provisions as you have mentioned.

Could definitely be Harvest Lane though they havent played in NZ much so far as far as I know.

They seem to be a bit low key after the Mayne / Cosette issues.

This week will be interesting

One possible theory might be that CDL have been in discussions with significant shareholders indicating they're prepared to pay $3.30.

Institutions are likely in communication with each other and some holders might have indicated a willingness to accept that price.

ACC might have said they're not interested and might have told other instructions they'll give them the same price now on market.

It could be an interesting week or this could play itself out over several months but MCK is definitely "in play" and I think $3.30 is too cheap.

For what its worth Disc I hold 0.152% of the ordinary issued shares. Nobody has approached me in discussions about a possible takeover at $3.30 but if they did they would be told exactly what I told Blair Cooper at ACC after the 2025 annual meeting. Any further offer has to have a "4" as the first digit at a minimum.
I'm not saying I would sell at $4 rather anything lower than that would not even be a starting point for consideration.

Just a theory...

Disclosure requirements on becomming a substantial shareholder, 5% or more or a movement of 1% when you already have a holding of 5% or more, are 1 working day so perhaps the situation will be a little bit less opaque by close of business today.

If not then it appears neither ACC or CDL was the buyer which adds further intrigue.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/466844

Looks like Basil was right.   Well done. ACC have really been increasing their holding
Interesting times

Good stuff. ACC are now effectively in control of any future takeover attempt.  Blair Cooper of ACC has my contact details. Anyone else with a material interest in this is welcome to PM me.

I'm only a small holder in this Basil. Just a little over 1500 shares.   Glad it's ACC increasing their holding as they won't let this go easily (cheaply).  I'm happy to hold and wait.

I wish I could say I am surprised that it appears that CDL are again trying to low ball remaining shareholders, but I'm not. That said the share transactions could have simply been a proactive move by ACC to build a blocking stake without any prior contact from CDL in recent weeks, we simply cannot rule that possibility out.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread I was very impressed with Blair Cooper who spoke very well during the annual meeting last year and made it clear they are keen to see a deal done for all minority shareholders at a fair price. That's why I am especially pleased to see ACC step up.

You folks will recall the mid point of the independent valuation range was $4.70. There's no one better that I can think of than Mr Cooper at ACC to get a price as close to this as possible.

Patience is likely to be well rewarded.

Interesting week.  Its clear $3.30 is now the new floor and we closed at a fresh all time high of $3.60.

The purchase by ACC was really interesting and significant during the week.  I can see ACC wants to get fair value for their investment.  With their size they can effectively block a takeover offer or afford to hold onto the shares for a really long time.

I acknowledge that the mid-point of the independent valuation for MCK ordinary shares, in 2025, was $4.70.  However, MCK has both ordinary and preference shares listed.  MCK ordinary shares have a current value/share of $3.60 and capitalisation of $380 million.  MCK preference shares have a current value of $1.70/share and capitalisation of $90 million.  The takeover offer is only for the ordinary shares and a letter on Feb 3 2025 from CDL said they were prepared to acquire the preference shares at $1.70 on market.

Am I correct that the preference shares should have the same value as the ordinary shares?  If that is correct then CDL is getting a real bargain offering to purchase the preference shares for $1.70.  That would save them a lot of money.  If they do the money they save, by purchasing the preference shares at $1.70, should be added to the fair value of the ordinary shares.  Under my calculations that would value the ordinary shares at approx $6.50 each.

In that reasoning I see the ordinary shares valued at approximately $6.50.  However, I am not totally sure of my calculations and would appreciate comments on that. 

Welcome to the forum Interested321 and thank you for your post.  That issue has probably already been addressed in the target company statement and independent valuers report.  I'm a bit time poor at present so feel free to have a read of the whole document here https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/Transactions/Millenium-Copthorne-Hotels-New-Zealand-Limited-2025-Target-Company-Statement.pdf

P.S. On a brief look through this afternoon I see what you are getting at.  The independent valuation of $4.70 per share is valuing the entire company including the redeemable preference shares (RPS) at $4.70 per share.  CDL already own 91.34% of the RPS and from memory redemption is based on the 20 day VWAP.  In effect they can redeem these shares for $1.70 once they have control of the company.

The independent valuation report did not form a value on the RPS but valued the company based on the total number of shares including the RPS at $4.70 each.

If they make an offer of $4.70 with ACC support In effect they will only pay ~ $1.70 for the 4.57m Redeemable preference shares they don't currently own = $7.77m  There are 16.974m ordinary shares outstanding they don't own and if they pay $4.70 for those that's $79.78m
Total possible takeover cost is $87.55m for a total ordinary and preference shares outstanding of 21.544m = effective price per share to gain control of $4.06.

Rather than saying the outstanding ordinary shares are worth X and the preference shares are worth Y I think its best to look at the net effective price for total control and ask if that's a feasible deal and I think it is.  I see no logical reason why ordinary shareholders should accept any offer materially lower than $4.70 considering where the preference shares are priced and the advantage that confers upon CDL but ultimately this will come down to what ACC is willing to accept and what CDL are prepared to pay,

I'm not a huge believer in coincidences and I think there's a pretty good likelihood that ACC stepping up and paying $3.30 for some shareholders shares last week is in response to CDL offering that amount and some weak holders indicating they're prepared to accept that.  For ACC to pay that they must think they have a good chance of negotiating a future offer of four dollars something.    ACC's move to take an effective blocking stake makes this a fascinating game of Cat and Mouse.

This is a good time to release a copy of my email communication with Blair Cooper at ACC of June 2025.

Thank you for what you have done to date to try and get minority shareholders a better deal.  It was much appreciated how you came out in the media and called the $2.80 offer egregiously low.  I also think you came across very well in the meeting outlining that there is a deal to be done but also expressing your disappointment that MCK themselves are prepared to pay decent multiples for recent property transactions but then low ball minority shareholders for those same assets.

How do you reconcile this was the question you asked and of course there is no reconciliation other than CDL wanting to take advantage of their dominant shareholding and the manner if which they have operated the company to try and strong-arm shareholders who are disaffected with the returns.  A fully imputed dividend yield of just over 1% is pretty miserable by any yardstick.

Its clear that ACC are the kingmaker to any future possible successful takeover and CDL might approach you for preliminary discussions well before the next date they can officially launch a new takeover being 22 January 2026, so while its fresh in my mind I just wanted to share my perspective as an investor of more than 40 years experience owning ~ 100,000 shares.

1. In my opinion Northington did an outstanding job and I concur with their view that $4.70 was fair value as at February 2025.  I expect accrued EPS of just over 20 cps in FY25 so approx. $4.90 becomes the benchmark in early 2026 but if valuing on an EBITDA basis with increased FY25 earnings and improving FY26 outlook it could be materially higher.

2. I would highlight in page 29 of their report that MCK's budget for FY25 shows hotel revenue increasing from $109.5m in FY24 to $134.4m.  New Christchurch hotel and gradually improving economic conditions.

3. Also well worth noting as you alluded too in the annual meeting, MCK paid 17.9 times EBITDA for the Sofitel Brisbane and 15.0 times for Mayfair Christchurch.  Very important to note they paid 16.2 times EBITDA for the 35% of Millennium & Copthorne Hotels plc in the U.K. in their June 2019 takeover.

4. They have played shareholders for a fiddle and taken their shareholding up from 70.8% less than a year ago to just on 84% now, at rock bottom prices and only have 16% to go.  Northington on page 6 of their report believe that CDL will be motivated to get to 90% and I believe that's even more so the case now that they have ~ 84% compared to ~76% before the derisory $2.80 low ball takeover attempt.

5. The Chair told me after the meeting he thought the offers to date were 'insulting" and he "nearly fell off his chair" with the original offer of $2.20.

6. You mentioned to us that the highest price the shares had ever traded at was $3.20.  I'm a little concerned you feel that sets some kind of relevant price point and in any case may be above this figure before year end.  I would like to draw your attention to the most recent large property company takeover on the NZX being Arvida.  I believe this sets THE most relevant / recent benchmark.  It is well worth noting that a) At the time the directors only recommended this offer of $1.70 if it fell inside the valuation range of the independent valuers report, which it subsequently did.  b) the offer price was at a 65% premium to VWAP at the time c) It was pitched at 83% of NTA, see NZX release here NZX, New Zealand's Exchange - Announcements, Arvida Board Unanimously Recommends Stonepeak Acquisition  I note a 65% premium to VWAP of MCK would be about $2.80 x 1.65 = $4.62 and 83% of adjusted NTA $5.71 (page 24 Northington report) = $4.74.  This takeover concluded as recently as November 2024 and that makes it highly relevant in my opinion despite the nature of the property assets being different.

7. A full takeover is now relatively inexpensive in the overall context of complete control of assets worth north of a Billion dollars. ~16.6m x $4.90 = ~ $81m and I note the company has a line of credit with its bankers of $120m, largely unused according to the Northington report.

8. M Social Hotel in downtown Auckland is clearly a highly valuable asset that's "in play" and I am not convinced they are disclosing all relevant facts to all shareholders.  Likewise other surplus land holdings could be worth well north of disclosed values.

9. The value of CDL Investments land holdings should be worth more in a lower interest rate environment prevailing in 2026.  I don't know that company well but every shareholder I speak with tells me the land holdings are valued on an extremely conservative basis.

10. You are not bound in any way to any previously indicated price you stated you would be prepared to do a deal at.  For example, its seems clear 15 times EBITDA on FY25 earnings and / or prospective FY26 earnings could be a materially different number than based on FY24 earnings.  Besides that, they only need ~ 8% of shareholders to agree to a higher number and the rest of us have no rights of objection so ACC are clearly in a position of strength and considerable influence with any future price negotiations.

As you have pointed out, we are close to the low point in the economic cycle and inbound tourism still remains below pre-pandemic level's.
Seeing as they only have to pay a fair price now for the remaining ~ 16% of the company, I see no logical reason why shareholders shouldn't hold out for a price within the valuation range suggested by Northington $4.40 - $5.00 plus especially considering that's based on FY24 earnings and there's approx 20 cps+ accrued earnings in FY25.

CDL have acquired ~ 13.2% extra shares in the last year at dirt cheap prices.  Its almost a masterclass in how to takeover a company as cheaply as possible.  Surely its not too big an ask that they pay a fair price for the remaining 16% ?

I'm happy for you to share my thoughts with your colleagues and to discuss at any time in the future.

Thanks again for your excellent work to date in helping minority shareholders get a fair and reasonable outcome.  Keep up the good work, the battle for a fair deal has only just begun.

P.S. Since June 2025 I have lifted my shareholding to 160,000 shares.

Great email Basil.    Did you get a reply?

Thanks. Yes but I don't think it's fair on Mr Cooper to release the contents on here.

His subsequent recent action last week lifting ACC 's stake speaks for itself in terms of a reply, and showing his intent.

I have also significantly increased my shareholding in  MCK since that email.

Interesting question about the RPS and where they might fit into a future takeover offer from CDL.  Here's some background:

1.  Prospectus for 2014 issue which sets out full terms - https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/1E9C8FD0C67B34502D5211D3B57D062A

Share issued as RPS rather than ordinary shares was said to be done to suit CDL and ability to issue shares quickly!

Note that post issue there was a pro rata MCK share cancellation resulting in the cancellation of 698 in every 1,000 ordinary and RPS.

2.  As at March 2025 CDL owned 91.34% (48,169,766 shares) of the RPS and ACC owned 1.78% (938,848 shares).  There were 154 RPS shareholders in total.

3.  The RPS are non-voting which presumably impacts their value relative to the ordinary shares.  CDL didn't appear to need to own 100% of the RPS to complete its 2025 takeover attempt.

4.  MCK can choose to elect to redeem the RPS but can only do if at least the holders of 75% of the RPS agree.  As CDL owns 91.34%, then they can arguably pass this resolution (subject to any NZX restrictions?).  The redemption price is the the greater of 64 cents per share and the 20 day VWAP of the RPS on the NZX.  As the RPS are thinly traded, maybe the market price could be manipulated by interested parties.

5.  The terms of the RPS can be amended if agreed by the board and the holders of 75% of the RPS share.  Once again perhaps CDL can do this (subject to any NZX restrictions).

6.  There is a good discussion on the RPS and CDL's stated intentions and its implications in the Independent Directors statement on page 8 of the Target Company Statement (see link in Basil's post above).  It suggests that CDL had intended to redeem the RPS if the takeover was successful, which if this occurs at a price below the offer price for the ordinary shares will increase the value of the ordinary shares as Interested321 points out.

As noted the 2025 takeover offer was for the ordinary shares only with CDL offering to also buy RPS on market for a lesser price.

If a takeover succeeds, do the RPS remain listed in the NZX or will CDL redeem them.  If not redeemed, what protections would exist for RPS shareholders if MCK was delisted after a successful takeover?

Given ACC holds a good chunk of the non-CDL held RPS, and given they have now some power in relation to a future CDL takeover offer for ordinary shares, will they be motivated to negotiate a pre-bid deal with CDL that also delivers a fair outcome for the RPS or increases the value of the ordinary shares to reflect the valuation upside of a 'cheap' RPS redemption?

Alternatively the independent directors of MCK should continue to make some noise to protect minority RPS shareholders if another similarly structured CDL takeover is used again.

Thanks for the great discussion.

I share your concern about the redeemable preference shares.  If we only get the $1.70 indicated in the letter on 3 February 2025 then it is well below the fair value of them (mid-point $4.70).  This would impact me (as I own redeemable preference shares) as well as ACC. 

This potential "profit" for MCK by doing this should be added to the value of the MCK shares - and it has not been so far.

As raised by other members there are other aspects that could increase the value of the MCK shares.  As mentioned by other members there are concerns that M Social in Auckland is not fully valued.  It occupies prime land in Auckland and there have been recent hotel sales in Auckland at high valuations.

MCK also has valuable land in Queenstown.  This area is prospering and rapidly becoming a big international destination.  There have also been record sales there.  For example, Base Backpackers was sold for $31 million.  MCK has three hotels in Queenstown.  Many of these have lake views.  Surely these must be worth several hundred million dollars.

I believe these, and other factors mentioned in this chat, indicate that MCK ordinary shares are worth significantly more than $4.70.   


   

Quote from: Crackity on Jan 30, 2026, 06:49 PMGoodson sold all 1,485,441 MCK shares Salt held into the $2.80 offer at the end of April last year

He's not the sharpest fund management tool in the shed I reckon

Weren't Salt the top performing fund managers in 2025?No one gets it right every time

I've made some tweaks to my post from last night, mainly referencing the 2025 Target Company Statement.

My opinion is that preference shareholders are in a very weak and vulnerable position which is why I have chosen not to own any.
Certain discussions transpired after the annual meeting last year but I am not at liberty to break the confidence of what was said and by whom to me about them or what was suggested other than to say that, it would have been easy for preference shareholders to work together to, putting this politely, "encourage each other to facilitate a more liquid market in these shares" but I think preference shareholders quite rightly may have concerns about whether this amounts to market manipulation.  That's the reason why I didn't get involved with the preference shares or any scheme of arrangement to change the share price of them.

What I can say is that ACC are acutely aware of the valuation uplift on the ordinary shares knowing that CDL can unilaterally exercise redemption of preference shares from within the companies existing debt resources subsequent to any takeover of the ordinary shares.  How they will negotiate on this point is anyone's guess but if you are a believer in following the money then that would suggest based on their relative sized shareholdings in ordinary shares, (recently significantly increased) and the size of their preference shareholding they should in theory be looking to optimize the outcome for ordinary shareholders.

The independent valuation did not really address this point in detail but clearly if fair value for all 158.218m shares was $4.70 last year, (total net value $743.6m) and they were assuming preference shareholders get the same payout as ordinary shareholders under a windup valuation, on a going concern basis if the 52.739m preference shares are redeemed at $1.70, total redemption value 52,739m x $1.70 = $89.66m) that leaves ($743.6m - $89.66m) = $653.94m fair value for 105.44m ordinary shares = fair value per ordinary share of $6.20 after taking into account the advantages of dirt cheap RPS redemption.

I think there's also surplus land at some of those Queenstown properties that they're looking into as to how to optimize value for the company and also its well known that the M Social property in downtown Auckland is in play.

Before we all get too carried away with all the positive valuation theory I think we need to keep in mind that based on the interim report of CDI property and prevailing market conditions in the real estate market since then, its likely that CDI have had a very weak year and their outlook is probably best described as muted.

All that said maybe a takeover offer of five dollars something is not something unreasonable to hope for ?

MCK will have to report by 27 February, (last year they reported on 24 February) so we'll know more shortly in terms of how the company is performing.

Basil I agree with your view that RPS holders are in a vulnerable position.

Having read a bit more of the Target Company Statement, I see Northington Partners at paragraph 4.2 of their report (pages 27 and 28) offer the view that ".... the total economic interest held by CDL in MCK will be maximised if the RPS are not redeemed". 

So while CDL's position in their 2025 takeover attempt was that they may redeem the RPS, there is a significant risk that they wouldn't do so post 100% ownership of the ordinary shares.  Further, they could cease paying dividends (extracting cash by loan or purchase of additional assets from CDL) resulting in RPS holders being locked into a share that produces no yield and has no guarantee of long term value uplift due to the redemption rights CDL have.

Yes that's quite at odds with the statement from the Chair at page 8 though.   
For what its worth I'd be surprised if ACC didn't include in their negotiations a deal for preference shareholders.  They wouldn't want to remain as minority shareholders in the preference shares in a takeover situation any more than you or anyone else would. 

Quote from: Basil on Feb 08, 2026, 04:28 PMYes that's quite at odds with the statement from the Chair at page 8 though.   
For what its worth I'd be surprised if ACC didn't include in their negotiations a deal for preference shareholders.  They wouldn't want to remain as minority shareholders in the preference shares in a takeover situation any more than you or anyone else would. 

ACC had 935,848 of the prefs mid last year

They are very infrequently traded so they probably still have them all

Thanks for the ongoing discussion.  I think we can agree that whatever way we look at it City Developments is getting a bargain. 

I agree with the comment by Basil that you could argue that a fair value for MCK is $6.20 (taking into account they pay $1.70 for the Redeemable Preference Shares).  I still think this is undervalued given the potential value of M Social, the three Queenstown Hotels and the vacant property in Queenstown.  I agree that CDL Investments may have had a bad year in 2025 coinciding with the nadir in the property market.  However, the CDL annual report in 2024 reported the Net Tangible Asset value per CDL share at $1.10 - yet the shares are selling at $0.77.  Also, companies normally pay a premium for control.  Given this I believe the value of MCK ordinary shares should be considered at $6.20 and possibly more than that.   

They've had a very good and busy year, share price up more than 90% and trading at 0.95 times book value.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/C09.SI/
No reason they can't pay a fair price to takeover the modest number of remaining shares they don't already own in MCK.  However, If as I suspect they have tried to low ball holders at $3.30 per my earlier post, they're unlikely to come back with a fair offer in the very short term so some patience will be required here if you want a good price for your shares.

Crickey, I just realised CDLmay be able to takeover MCK for $0 of their own cash outlay.

The company has a $120m banking facility.  If they used that to redeem the preference shares at $1.70 with CDL holding 91% that would give them enough cash to takeover the 16% ordinary shares they don't own.

I'll put some numbers on this when I get to the office.

P.S. Really brief back of the envelope calculation.  It costs $89.66m to redeem the pref shares at $1.70, which can be self funded from $120m line of credit banking resources so CDL gets 91% of that = $81.6m.  That would self fund a takeover attempt of the ~ 16.9m ordinary shares they don't own at $4.83 per share.  But I think after recent discussions around how the pref share redemption boosts the value of the ordinary shares, the question for ACC to ponder is this, Is $4.83 a share enough ?  (Note, we probably won't get a say in this or need to answer that question ourselves.  If / when there's a takeover deal announced it will be with ACC support and it will most likely already be a done deal).

Another aspect to throw into to mix - MCK currently has a board that has a majority of independent directors (or depending on the true status of Stuart Harrison the Managing Director, not a majority of CDL directors).

Any decision to redeem the RPS would need to supported by the MCK board as being in the best interests of the company and also supported by CDL as the holder of more than 75% of the RPS.  So as it stands, any desire by CDL to redeem the RPS may not meet with MCK board approval.  If a takeover was successful and MCK was delisted, then I assume the board is replaced with CDL nominees, which may change the view.  As it stands, it may be difficult to argue from MCK's perspective that redemption is in the company's best interests.

There was a late change at the 2025 ASM where ACC requested Graham McKenzie reconsider and stand for reelection whereas he had previously indicated he was not standing.  He indicated he would do another year until the 2026 ASM, however that is sneaking up soon enough.  CDL voted in favour of his reelection. It will be interesting to see what happens - do we go down to five directors, two independent, two CDL and the Managing Director?  The NZX listing rules require a minimum of two independent directors with a recommendation (but not an obligation) that the majority be independent - see https://www.nzx.com/services/listing-on-nzx-markets/equity/listing-requirements

Assuming that CDL can influence when and whether the RPS are redeemed, they face a dilemma as to whether it is triggered now at the attractive price of $1.70 compared to the explicit increase in the value of the ordinary shares should this occur which would no doubt increase the fair value that an independent expert would determine.

A big question is whether the RPS remain listed if CDL owns all of the ordinary shares.  Quite a lot of compliance cost associated with this.  Can they delist the RPS, and if they do, what is the process to alter the redemption price formula?  Could the RPS listing be moved to Unlisted or Sydnex?

Therefore as Basil points out any deal that ACC negotiates with CDL will likely include a resolution (or an escape route) for the RPS holders.  Question is whether ACC happy to boost the value of the ordinary shares (which they own a greater percentage of) at the expense of the RPS value or whether a fairer outcome for all is their priority.

For anyone brave enough to take a punt on the RPS, there are currently 5,800 listed for sale at $1.78 (and 20,000 at $3.35!).

Quote from: Southern Lad on Feb 11, 2026, 01:36 PMFor anyone brave enough to take a punt on the RPS, there are currently 5,800 listed for sale at $1.78 (and 20,000 at $3.35!).

Too much bravery required for my liking but gosh, it wouldn't take much to move the 20 day VWAP.  The only trade on any slightly meaningful number at all has been 5,000 pref shares on 28 January at $1.70.

From todays release..... I'd be happy with $ 5 + .....

"Fair market value of hotel and properties assessed at $1.1b. Net asset
backing per share on market value basis assessed as $5.24 per share *
Fully imputed dividend declared of 3 cents per share, payable on 15 May 2026
MCK's chairman, Colin Sim, said: "This was another set of strong results from
our key Hotels business, validating our execution to date and signalling the
transition from the Revive to Thrive phase of our hotels' strategy. We have
continued to grow the value of our portfolio, through both our long-term
refurbishment plan as well as disciplined investment to expand our footprint."

Interesting time to release results. 
When you posted them I thought how did I miss them this morning

Fair value of shares is $5.24 but that includes the preference shares which can be redeemed for $1.80.

I'm away from my office so can someone please work out what the fair value of the ordinary shares are taking into account redemption of pref's at $1.80.

Just doing the sums in my head going off memory from the number of ord's and pref's on issue it looks like almost $7 !

Quote from: Basil on Feb 24, 2026, 12:48 PMJust doing the sums in my head going off memory from the number of ord's and pref's on issue it looks like almost $7 !

$7 plus but it's a moving feast (just like on a boat )

Not sure the prefs are getting redeemed for $1.80 - I'd suggest more.

Gonna be an interesting meeting at Msocial in  May assuming nothing happens beforehand.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/468098/attachment/463081/468098-463081.pdf

Outlook looks good.  If CDL don't mount a takeover soon the price is going further north !

Story paywalled in the Herald ....Not sure what this works out per room but must be good for MCK shareprice ....
"The US$75 billion New York Stock Exchange-listed Brookfield Asset Management plans to buy two New Zealand hotels for $250 million, subject to Overseas Investment Office consent.
Ruban Kaneshamoorthy, Brookfield's co-head of Australia real estate, said the company wanted to buy the 280-room Rydges Wellington and the 84-room Sofitel Queenstown."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/new-york-listed-brookfield-asset-management-plans-250m-purchase-of-rydges-wellington-sofitel-queenstown/premium/JRN36M2CC5FCZCHT6ODWFD5J7I/

Really makes me wonder what MCK's three Queenstown properties with some surplus land are really worth ?

I agree with Basil.  MCK owns three prime Queenstown hotels.  They are close to the lake and many of the rooms will have lake views.  Additionally, the value of Queenstown real estate is really taking off and I see no sign of it abating.  I would love to see some proper and current estimates of the values of these properties in the annual report. 

Not forgetting also that M Social in downtown Auckland where they're holing the annual meeting this year could be "in play" for sale.

From AI:

INVESTMENT REPORT: MILLENNIUM & COPTHORNE HOTELS NEW ZEALAND LIMITED (NZX: MCK)
Date: March 2026
Ticker: MCK (NZX)
Sector: Hospitality / Hotels & Property

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited (MCK) is the only NZX-listed hotel owner-operator, with 19 hotels across New Zealand and a growing Australian footprint. The company is 84% controlled by CDL Hotels Holdings (a subsidiary of Singapore's Hong Leong Group) and also holds a 65% majority stake in NZX-listed land developer CDL Investments New Zealand (CDI).
MCK reported a strong FY25, with revenue at a five-year high of $186.7m (+6% YoY) driven by hotel momentum, though operating profit fell 28% due to CDI's subdued property cycle. The company's assets are carried at historical cost on the balance sheet, but the fair market value of hotel and property assets has been independently assessed at $1.1 billion, implying a net asset backing of $5.24 per share on a market value basis, significantly above the book NTA of $3.58.
The central investment thesis revolves around three dynamics: (1) a deeply undervalued asset base relative to market price, (2) an ongoing and likely takeover by the controlling shareholder CDL at a price that minority shareholders consider inadequate, and (3) a complex capital structure involving redeemable preference shares (RPS) that could materially alter the fair value attributable to ordinary shareholders.
Overall Assessment: MCK ordinary shares appear materially undervalued relative to the assessed fair market value of the underlying assets. However, minority shareholders face significant governance risks from the dominant controlling shareholder, limited liquidity, and uncertainty around the timing and terms of any takeover offer.

COMPANY OVERVIEW

Business Structure:

NZ Hotels (core business): 19 properties, approximately 2,300 rooms across New Zealand under Millennium, Grand Millennium, M Social, Copthorne, Kingsgate, and The Mayfair brands. Revenue $130.9m, up 19.5% YoY.
CDL Investments NZ (65% owned subsidiary, NZX: CDI): Residential and commercial land development across NZ. Revenue $38.1m, down 22.4% YoY.
Australia: 50% JV in Sofitel Brisbane Central. Zenith Residences in Sydney in wind-down with 6 apartments remaining.
Approximately 1,200 employees across NZ and Australia.

Ownership Structure:

CDL Hotels Holdings NZ Ltd holds 86.39% economic interest (ordinary plus preference shares) and approximately 84% of ordinary shares.
ACC (Accident Compensation Corporation) is the most significant minority holder of both ordinary and preference shares, and has recently increased its ordinary shareholding.
Free float is approximately 16% of ordinary shares, roughly 16.9 million shares.

Capital Structure:

Ordinary shares on issue: 105,578,290
Redeemable preference shares (RPS) on issue: 52,739,543
Treasury stock (ordinary): 99,547
Total shares for EPS calculation: 158,218,286

The RPS are non-voting and rank equally with ordinary shares for dividends, but have different liquidation rights. CDL holds approximately 91% of the RPS and can unilaterally trigger redemption at approximately $1.70 to $1.80 per share based on a formula. This is a crucial structural feature discussed further below.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE - FY25

Income Statement Highlights:

Revenue: $186.7m (FY24: $176.2m, up 6.0%)
Hotel Revenue: $130.9m (FY24: $109.5m, up 19.5%)
Property Sales via CDI: $51.5m (FY24: $62.7m, down 17.9%)
Operating Profit: $30.6m (FY24: $42.5m, down 27.9%)
Profit Before Tax: $33.0m (FY24: $47.1m, down 29.8%)
Net Profit attributable to MCK shareholders: $20.2m (FY24: $2.8m, up 622%)
Earnings Per Share: 12.78 cents (FY24: 1.75 cents)
Dividend per share: 3.0 cents, fully imputed, maintained from prior year

Note: FY24 was distorted by a $25.8m one-off non-cash deferred tax adjustment. Adjusted FY24 EPS was 17.17 cents, meaning FY25 underlying EPS actually declined approximately 25.6%.
Key Observations:

Hotel business firing strongly. NZ hotel revenue up 19.5%, driven by The Mayfair acquisition in January 2025 for $31.9m, completion of refurbishments restoring room inventory, and recovering international tourism with 3.5 million visitor arrivals being the first year exceeding 3.5 million since pre-COVID.
Average occupancy rose to 70% from 67%, with Q1 and Q4 being seasonally strongest.
CDI dragging on profitability. The subdued NZ residential property market saw CDI's operating profit fall 38.5% to $15.0m. CDI maintains zero bank debt and $13.9m cash.
Sofitel Brisbane JV delivered a strong contribution. MCK's share of profit was $2.64m, up 75%, benefiting from event-driven demand including the British and Irish Lions tour, State of Origin rugby league, and Ashes cricket.
A $3.8m non-cash impairment was recognised on Copthorne Hotel Palmerston North.
Effective tax rate normalised to 25%, down from the inflated FY24 rate.

Balance Sheet Highlights:

Total Assets: $800.5m (FY24: $762.3m)
Property, Plant and Equipment (hotels): $321.7m (FY24: $283.4m)
Development Properties: $279.7m (FY24: $264.1m)
Investment in JV (Sofitel Brisbane): $51.2m (FY24: $46.6m)
Cash plus Short Term Deposits: $24.2m (FY24: $41.3m)
Bank Debt: $20.0m (FY24: $3.0m)
Net Assets: $685.0m (FY24: $664.9m)
NTA per share on book value: $3.58 (FY24: $3.46)
NTA per share on market value basis: $5.24
Very low gearing. Net debt is approximately nil as cash roughly offsets bank borrowings. The banking facility is $80m comprising $75m revolving credit and $5m overdraft, maturing July 2027.
Asset growth of $38m was primarily from the Mayfair acquisition and ongoing capex and refurbishments, funded by operating cash flow and modest debt drawdown.
The fair market value gap is substantial. Book value of property assets is $752m versus assessed fair market value of $1.1 billion, representing an unrealised surplus of approximately $361m or 48% above book.

Cash Flow Highlights:

Operating Cash Flow: $25.7m (FY24: $13.7m, up 88%)
Investing Cash Flow: negative $52.7m (FY24: positive $33.1m)
Financing Cash Flow: positive $5.3m (FY24: negative $20.4m)
Operating cash flow improved materially to $25.7m.
Heavy investing outflows reflect the Mayfair acquisition and ongoing hotel refurbishment programme.
Debt drawn up $17m to fund acquisitions. Dividends to MCK shareholders maintained at $4.7m.


VALUATION ANALYSIS

4.1 Book Value vs Market Value
The company's hotel properties are carried at historical cost less depreciation, a conservative accounting treatment that understates their true worth. Independent valuations as at 31 December 2025 assess the fair market value of all property assets at $1.1 billion.

NZ Hotels and Properties: book value approximately $571m, market value approximately $990m
Australia portfolio (Zenith plus 50% Sofitel Brisbane): book value approximately $123m, market value approximately $123m
Total: book value approximately $752m, market value approximately $1,113m

The company's stated NTA per share on a market value basis is $5.24. This figure is calculated on total shares outstanding of 158.2 million and includes a tax allowance on revaluation gains.
4.2 The Redeemable Preference Share (RPS) Arbitrage
This is the most important and complex valuation consideration. The 52.7 million RPS can be redeemed by the company, with CDL's consent as the holder of more than 75%, at a formulaic price currently around $1.70 to $1.80 per share. The mid-point independent fair value of RPS is cited at approximately $4.70, the same as ordinary shares on a per-share basis.
If the RPS are redeemed at $1.80:

Total RPS redemption cost: 52.7m shares multiplied by $1.80 equals approximately $94.9m
Total fair market net value across all shares: 158.2m shares multiplied by $5.24 equals approximately $829m
Remaining value for ordinary shareholders: $829m minus $94.9m equals approximately $734m
Value per ordinary share: $734m divided by 105.5m ordinary shares equals approximately $6.96

Forum participants' calculations, using slightly different assumptions, arrive at figures ranging from $6.20 to $7.00 or more per ordinary share after accounting for cheap RPS redemption.
This represents a significant uplift compared to recent trading prices in the low to mid $4 range and any takeover offer at or below $5.
4.3 Comparable Transaction Evidence
Recent NZ hotel transactions provide useful benchmarks:

Brookfield Asset Management plans to acquire Rydges Wellington (280 rooms) and Sofitel Queenstown (84 rooms) for $250 million, subject to OIO consent. That works out to approximately $686,000 per room.
Base Backpackers in Queenstown was sold for $31 million, a budget asset.

MCK owns three hotels in Queenstown (Millennium, Copthorne Lakefront, Copthorne Resort) in prime lakefront and lake-view locations, plus surplus development land. At comparable per-room metrics, these alone could be worth several hundred million dollars, potentially above current book values.
The M Social hotel in downtown Auckland occupies prime CBD land adjacent to the Downtown Carpark development. Forum discussion and management commentary suggest this property may be in play for potential sale or redevelopment, representing additional hidden value.
4.4 Valuation Summary

Book NTA per share: $3.58
Market value NTA per share (all shares equally): $5.24
Adjusted ordinary share value after RPS redemption at $1.80: approximately $6.20 to $7.00
Potential additional upside from Queenstown revaluation and M Social Auckland: not yet quantified
Recent estimated trading price range: approximately $4.00 to $4.70
Price to Book NTA: approximately 1.31x
Price to Market NTA: approximately 0.90x
Price to Adjusted Ordinary NTA: approximately 0.67x to 0.76x

TAKEOVER DYNAMICS AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

5.1 CDL Takeover History
CDL via CDL Hotels Holdings already controls 84% of ordinary shares and 91% of RPS. A previous takeover attempt in 2025 valued ordinary shares at the mid-point of $4.70 per the Target Company Statement prepared by Northington Partners. Forum commentary suggests CDL may have more recently floated an offer of approximately $3.30 per share, which was rejected.
CDL's strategic interest in full ownership is clear. It would allow CDL to:

Delist MCK, eliminating NZX compliance costs
Redeem the RPS at approximately $1.80, crystallising roughly $3 per share of value transfer from RPS holders to ordinary shareholders, of which CDL holds 84%
Extract value through related-party transactions, asset transfers, or cessation of dividends
Optimise the Queenstown surplus land and M Social Auckland without minority shareholder scrutiny

5.2 The RPS as a Strategic Lever
Northington Partners in the 2025 Target Company Statement noted that CDL's total economic interest is maximised if the RPS are NOT redeemed, because CDL holds 91% of RPS and would forego the cheap redemption discount if it redeemed them while also owning most of them. However, after a takeover where CDL owns 100% of ordinary shares, the calculus changes dramatically. CDL could then redeem RPS at $1.80 and capture the difference between $1.80 and fair value for the 9% of RPS it does not own, which is primarily ACC's holding.
This creates a game-theoretic situation:

Before takeover: CDL benefits from NOT redeeming RPS
After takeover of ordinary shares: CDL benefits from redeeming RPS at $1.80
RPS holders, especially minorities, are vulnerable to being locked into a non-dividend-paying, illiquid, potentially delisted security with CDL controlling the redemption trigger

5.3 ACC's Role
ACC holds significant positions in both ordinary and preference shares. As the largest minority shareholder, ACC is the key negotiating counterparty for CDL. Forum consensus is that any takeover deal will effectively be negotiated between CDL and ACC, with the outcome presented as a done deal to other minorities.
ACC's relative weightings, being larger in ordinary than preference shares, suggest they may prioritise ordinary share value, potentially at the expense of RPS holders. However, ACC would also want an exit from their RPS position, so any deal likely includes a resolution for the RPS.
5.4 Board Composition
The MCK board currently has a majority of independent directors as required under NZX listing rules. Independent director Graham McKenzie agreed to stand for only one more year until the 2026 ASM. If independent directors are not replaced, CDL could gain effective board control, potentially facilitating a takeover or RPS redemption that favours CDL.
Any decision to redeem the RPS would need MCK board approval as being in the company's best interests. With a majority of independent directors, this is not assured. But if CDL gains board control post-delisting, the dynamic shifts entirely.
5.5 Self-Funding Takeover Mechanism
A particularly notable analysis from forum participants suggests CDL could execute a takeover using no cash of its own:

Step 1: Use MCK's $80m banking facility to redeem all RPS at approximately $1.80, costing approximately $95m
Step 2: CDL receives 91% of redemption cash back, approximately $86m, as the dominant RPS holder
Step 3: Use that $86m to fund the acquisition of the approximately 16.9 million ordinary shares CDL does not already own
This implies a maximum self-funded offer price of approximately $5.10 per share for ordinary shares

This is an elegant but concerning mechanism from a minority shareholder perspective.

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK AND GROWTH DRIVERS

Positives:

Tourism recovery continuing. International visitor arrivals exceeded 3.5 million in 2025, the first time since pre-COVID. New Zealand remains an aspirational tourism destination.
Refurbishment programme completing. Room availability approaching 100% across the portfolio. Full-year benefits of the Mayfair acquisition and completed refurbishments at Millennium Queenstown, Millennium Rotorua, Copthorne Bay of Islands, and Copthorne Queenstown Lakefront will flow through in FY26.
Strong start to 2026. Managing Director Stuart Harrison confirmed that 2026 has started strongly and if current demand patterns continue this should be reflected in improved metrics at half year.
Sofitel Brisbane upside. Growing contribution expected ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup and 2032 Brisbane Olympics.
Surplus land optionality. The company has identified surplus land adjacent to hotels in Queenstown, Rotorua, and Palmerston North being evaluated for further development or sale.
M Social Auckland and Downtown Carpark. The Auckland Downtown Carpark development adjoining M Social is progressing through consenting, with consideration being given to the opportunity for further development of the hotel site. This prime CBD asset could represent major value realisation.
Very low gearing. Net debt near zero with $80m facility available, providing significant capacity for acquisitions or further investment.
NZ hotel supply constrained. Limited new hotel construction provides pricing power for existing operators.
Large imputation credit balance of $144.7m available, providing capacity for future fully imputed dividends or capital returns.

Risks:

Controlling shareholder risk. CDL can effectively dictate terms to minority shareholders. There is potential for a low-ball takeover offer that does not reflect fair value.
Liquidity risk. Very thin trading in MCK ordinary shares and even thinner in RPS. Exiting a meaningful position could be very difficult.
CDI property headwind. NZ residential property market recovery expected to be gradual. CDI's contribution likely to remain subdued in the near term.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Global trade tensions, domestic inflation, and potential tourism disruptions remain ongoing concerns.
Seismic costs. Copthorne Hotel Wellington Oriental Bay requires seismic strengthening with partial closure expected in 2026. The capital requirement is not yet disclosed.
Climate risk. Extreme weather events could affect hotel operations and property values. Valuers have not yet made explicit adjustments for climate risk but acknowledge this may change.
Regulatory risk. OIO consent requirements for foreign hotel acquisitions are relevant to competitor pricing. Pillar Two global minimum tax implications are being monitored.
Board composition deterioration. Risk of losing independent director majority at the 2026 ASM, which would weaken minority shareholder protections.
Two hotel CGUs identified as sensitive to impairment. One hotel with a carrying value of $5.1m is close to its recoverable amount. One hotel's value is sensitive to changes in square metre rates with only $1.4m headroom above carrying value.


DIVIDEND AND YIELD


Dividend per share: 3.0 cents, fully imputed at 28%
Gross dividend: 4.167 cents
Supplementary dividend for non-resident shareholders: 0.529 cents
Record date: 8 May 2026
Payment date: 15 May 2026
Total monies associated with the distribution: $3,167,349
Source: Retained earnings
Indicative gross yield at approximately $4.70: roughly 0.9%

The dividend yield is minimal. MCK is not an income investment. The thesis is entirely asset-value and event-driven.

KEY METRICS SUMMARY


Revenue FY25: $186.7m
Net Profit to MCK shareholders: $20.2m
Earnings Per Share: 12.78 cents
Book NTA per share: $3.58
Market value NTA per share: $5.24
Adjusted ordinary share value post RPS redemption: approximately $6.20 to $7.00
P/E ratio at approximately $4.70: roughly 37x
Price to Book NTA: approximately 1.31x
Price to Market NTA: approximately 0.90x
Price to Adjusted Ordinary NTA: approximately 0.67x to 0.76x
Net Debt: approximately nil
Gearing: approximately 0%
Banking facility available: $80m, maturing July 2027
Imputation credits available: $144.7m
Hotel occupancy: 70%
NZ hotel properties fair value: $575m
Total property portfolio fair market value: $1.1 billion


INVESTMENT CONCLUSION

MCK ordinary shares represent a classic "asset-rich, liquidity-poor, controlled-company" situation. The underlying asset base, particularly the NZ hotel portfolio, is worth materially more than the current share price, with credible estimates for ordinary shares ranging from $6.20 to $7.00 or more on a fully adjusted basis.
The key catalyst is a takeover offer from CDL. While CDL's initial approaches appear to have been at levels well below fair value, with approximately $3.30 floated informally and $4.70 as the mid-point in the 2025 Target Company Statement, the updated $5.24 market NTA disclosed in February 2026, combined with rising Queenstown hotel transaction values such as Brookfield's $250m deal for two hotels, the improving hotel operating environment, and ACC's increased ordinary share position, all suggest the eventual takeover price should be meaningfully higher.
A fair takeover offer, in our assessment, should be in the range of $5.50 to $6.50 per ordinary share, reflecting:

The $5.24 all-share market NTA as a floor
The RPS redemption value transfer to ordinary shareholders
A control premium, typically 20% to 30% for NZ takeovers
Queenstown and M Social Auckland optionality not fully captured in current valuations

The key risk is that CDL may delay or structure a takeover at an inadequate price, and minority shareholders have limited recourse. The stock is extremely illiquid and patience is required.
For RPS holders: The position is precarious. Post-takeover, CDL could redeem at $1.80 or simply cease dividends and delist, leaving RPS holders stranded. RPS should be viewed as high-risk special situation instruments only.
For ordinary shareholders: The discount to intrinsic value is substantial, but the path to value realisation depends almost entirely on CDL's actions and ACC's negotiating position. The most likely outcome is a takeover at some point, but the timing and price remain uncertain.

Quote from: entrep on Mar 16, 2026, 10:36 AMMCK owns three hotels in Queenstown (Millennium, Copthorne Lakefront, Copthorne Resort) in prime lakefront and lake-view locations, plus surplus development land. At comparable per-room metrics, these alone could be worth several hundred million dollars, potentially above current book values.

Great analysis, thank you for sharing.  I especially liked that bit.

QuoteA particularly notable analysis from forum participants suggests CDL could execute a takeover using no cash of its own:

Step 1: Use MCK's $80m banking facility to redeem all RPS at approximately $1.80, costing approximately $95m
Step 2: CDL receives 91% of redemption cash back, approximately $86m, as the dominant RPS holder
Step 3: Use that $86m to fund the acquisition of the approximately 16.9 million ordinary shares CDL does not already own
This implies a maximum self-funded offer price of approximately $5.10 per share for ordinary shares

Some dog that's sometimes a bit clever came up with that idea  ;)

QuoteA fair takeover offer, in our assessment, should be in the range of $5.50 to $6.50 per ordinary share, reflecting:

The $5.24 all-share market NTA as a floor
The RPS redemption value transfer to ordinary shareholders
A control premium, typically 20% to 30% for NZ takeovers
Queenstown and M Social Auckland optionality not fully captured in current valuations

I agree 100%

Quote from: entrep on Mar 16, 2026, 10:36 AMAdjusted ordinary share value after RPS redemption at $1.80: approximately $6.20 to $7.00

Great analysis entrep.  I completely agree with most of your points. However, you stated the fair takeover offer should be $5.50 to $6.5 per share.  However, I would argue it is worth more than that due to the following reasons.

1.  You said "Adjusted ordinary share value after RPS redemption at $1.80: approximately $6.20 to $7.00" 

Why not start in the mid point of this - $6.60.

2.  The control premium of 20% should be added to the $6.60 = $7.92 valuation

3.  I am concerned that the three Queenstown hotels and M Social in Auckland could be significantly undervalued.  Revaluing those would further increase the valuation.

I think its crystal clear the Downtown M Social hotel, Queenstown hotels and the redeemable preference shares redemption are the 3 key value drivers for ordinary shares valuation and uplift of same..

What frustrates me a bit and I am sure I am not alone is the company are happy to spend freely on new hotels in Chch and Brisbane at mid to late EBITDA multiples and then try and take over the company for about 50 cents on the dollar.

The self funding takeover plan I have come up with is a far better use of company funds than paying top dollar at open market for additional hotels.

I have been following the potential value of the hotels MCK owns in Queenstown.  They are

Millennium Hotel Queenstown (4 star, 220 beds, many with lake or mountain views)
Copthorne Hotel and Resort Queenstown Lakefront (4 star, 240 rooms, 74 rooms with lake or mountain views)
Copthorne Hotel and Apartments Lakeview (4 star, 66 rooms and 19 apartments)

I see Queenstown as being on a trajectory to become a Geneva or Zurich of the Southern Hemisphere. Growth is impressive.  For example, there was an increase of 10% in international travellers in the last year.  Yet there is limited land (espeically with lake views) and those hotels are potentially on a gold mine.

I also follow the online booking for those hotels (as we have been looking at a holiday there).  I am trying to get a booking.  It seems peak season lasts for about six months.  Many of the dates for those hotels in Novemeber 2026, January 2027 or February 2027 are booked out already - even for a single weeknight.  Also, I don't have exact numbers but I think that room rates have increased in the last year from about $350 to $450 in peak seasons. 

Also, with the ongoing increase in visitor numbers, and high levels of pre-bookings, there would be a case for increasing the rooms rates significantly further.     

Quote from: Interested321 on Mar 18, 2026, 08:20 AMI have been following the potential value of the hotels MCK owns in Queenstown.  They are

Millennium Hotel Queenstown (4 star, 220 beds, many with lake or mountain views)
Copthorne Hotel and Resort Queenstown Lakefront (4 star, 240 rooms, 74 rooms with lake or mountain views)
Copthorne Hotel and Apartments Lakeview (4 star, 66 rooms and 19 apartments)

I see Queenstown as being on a trajectory to become a Geneva or Zurich of the Southern Hemisphere. Growth is impressive.  For example, there was an increase of 10% in international travellers in the last year.  Yet there is limited land (espeically with lake views) and those hotels are potentially on a gold mine.

I also follow the online booking for those hotels (as we have been looking at a holiday there).  I am trying to get a booking.  It seems peak season lasts for about six months.  Many of the dates for those hotels in Novemeber 2026, January 2027 or February 2027 are booked out already - even for a single weeknight.  Also, I don't have exact numbers but I think that room rates have increased in the last year from about $350 to $450 in peak seasons. 

Also, with the ongoing increase in visitor numbers, and high levels of pre-bookings, there would be a case for increasing the rooms rates significantly further.     

I agree with you. I'm staying at the Novotel on the lake. It is $630 a night, normally we pay $400 max. Never seen Queenstown so busy. Paid $130 for a dozen Bluff oysters and $17 for a 330mm bottle of beer at a restaurant on the steamer wharf.

Did the oysters work.?

Quote from: lorraina on Mar 18, 2026, 10:10 AMDid the oysters work.?

😂 No, Was still worked up after paying for my gold plated Oysters.

Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 18, 2026, 10:47 AM😂 No, Was still worked up after paying for my gold plated Oysters.

Too be fair the resources are on limited active quotas due to some health challenges last couple of seasons. Supply and Demand.

I've used today's additional selling to get on to the share register. I probably should have posted my note after instead of before buying lol, was pretty bullish!

Quote from: entrep on Mar 19, 2026, 03:26 PMI've used today's additional selling to get on to the share register. I probably should have posted my note after instead of before buying lol, was pretty bullish!

Bit of consistent selling going on over the last 2 weeks - usually in batches of 4-5k stocks every 2-3 days below $3.30. Small time holders getting impatient?

Quote from: entrep on Mar 19, 2026, 03:26 PMI've used today's additional selling to get on to the share register. I probably should have posted my note after instead of before buying lol, was pretty bullish!

Welcome aboard mate.

Hotel operations absolutely humming and future looking bright https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/470003/attachment/464828/470003-464828.pdf. Development not so much...

Happy to hold and wait for true value realisation.

Check out who some of the top 20 shareholders are  8)

Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2026, 09:14 AMCheck out who some of the top 20 shareholders are  8)

JP Morgan is out of the top 20. Citibank and HSBC both sold a lot.

2024 Company report
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/449168/attachment/440345/449168-440345.pdf
2025 Company report
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/470003/attachment/464828/470003-464828.pdf

Het

Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2026, 09:14 AMCheck out who some of the top 20 shareholders are  8)

Hey Basil.
Thought you had 160k shares... 157k is a bit short 🤣🤣😂
But we'll done being a top 20. Take a bit of guts to get there.  Hope you get the end result you want 😁

Thanks. I bought a few more after that date.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2026, 09:14 AMCheck out who some of the top 20 shareholders are  8)

Directors are a little bit light on shares ......

Copthorne Rotorua is on the market - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/rotorua-hotel-investment-copthorne-on-fenton-st-for-sale/premium/WO4MEWIZSBHQNCL4OEGL5U4OEY/

https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/real-estate-news/major-potential-in-prime-rotorua-site

Will be an interesting test of value for the hotel portfolio.  Valuation in the 2025 Target Company Statement was $10.1m for the hotel (although this was valued based on land value less allowance for demolition costs) and $5.675m for the surplus land.   Maybe this suggests hotel at end of it's economic life and MCK doesn't see value in rebuilding.

MCK also has the Millennium Hotel (value $66m in the Target Company Statement) closer to the CBD so assume they feel they have a strong enough presence in the market.

Great to see that Graham McKenzie has agreed to stand for reelection to the MCK board for another year.  If successful, this maintains three independent directors.

Quote from: Southern Lad on Apr 28, 2026, 08:53 AMGreat to see that Graham McKenzie has agreed to stand for reelection to the MCK board for another year.  If successful, this maintains three independent directors.

Indeed.  CDL have a fair few hotels in the Middle East so I imagine dealing with the security risks around those is where managements attention is currently focused.  Once the geopolitical tension eases I think the relative attractiveness of further investment down under in this safe part of the world will be abundantly clear.  I'm hoping for a takeover at close to fair value later this year or early next year.  I'm planning on attending the annual meeting and will post any thoughts that stem from that afterwards.  Are you coming up for the annual meeting Southern Lad ?

Iverson said it preferred NZ equities because it could generate better returns.  ACC often appears on the NZX shareholder register but needs exemptions to exceed 5%, which is the threshold for significant shareholder status.  It's a canny investor.  For example, it has built a stake of more than 7% in Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, which was subject to a failed takeover attempt by the majority shareholder, CDL, in 2025.  ACC rebuffed the $2.80-per-share bid, calling it opportunistic and unreasonable.  Now it's in the box seat if CDL were to re-bid.  The ability to be patient was not to be underestimated, Iverson said.


BusinessDesk article about ACC - 23 April 2026 - final paragraph

 8)