Its that time of year again when we need to think about our best prospects for next year.
paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/investment/top-broker-stock-picks-for-2026-the-nzx-companies-analysts-back-to-recover/premium/BRA7JYSKIZH5DMLFLN6RGA2QQM/
Brokers and fund managers picks for 2026 are in that article, if you're interested. Should you be following their advice is a very good question ?
How did they go in 2025 you might be wondering....oh dear, on average it was a disaster. An average of the 5 brokers and professional fund managers would have given a return all inclusive including dividends, (but before brokerage or funds management costs) of minus 3.3%.
That compares with the benchmark I use of the S&P500 which is up just over 16%.
Even comparing these experts picks with the anemic NZX50 which was up just over 3% means that after brokerage or fund manager fees the average investor would be more than 7% better off just going with a NZX50 ETF or just on 21% better off going with an S&P500 ETF.
How did the "experts" picks compare with the medium performance of share trader's picks in the competition for 2025 on the other forum ? (Keep in mind the experts had the luxury of picking overseas stocks whereas those in the sharetrader competitor did not). The mid-point contestants position 96 and 97, returned 14.7 and 14.8% respectively, outperforming all the experts except Salt and outperforming the average investment professional by a whopping 18%, approx 19% outperformance if you factor in brokerage of funds management fees. WOW, that's breathtaking.
My goodness, that's a very sad indictment on the abilities of the average "professional" investment advisor in N.Z. in 2025 isn't it !
Perhaps even more interestingly, the average share trader stock picker at 14.7% limited to the NZX outperformed the NZX50 by about 11% !
I think anyone who achieved more than the S&P500 index of about 16% for the year can give themselves a good pat on the back and feel very content with their stock picking performance for 2025.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 26, 2025, 08:49 AMIts that time of year again when we need to think about our best prospects for next year.
paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/investment/top-broker-stock-picks-for-2026-the-nzx-companies-analysts-back-to-recover/premium/BRA7JYSKIZH5DMLFLN6RGA2QQM/
Brokers and fund managers picks for 2026 are in that article, if you're interested. Should you be following their advice is a very good question ?
How did they go in 2025 you might be wondering....oh dear, on average it was a disaster. An average of the 5 brokers and professional fund managers would have given a return all inclusive including dividends, (but before brokerage or funds management costs) of minus 3.3%.
That compares with the benchmark I use of the S&P500 which is up just over 16%.
Even comparing these experts picks with the anemic NZX50 which was up just over 3% means that after brokerage or fund manager fees the average investor would be more than 7% better off just going with a NZX50 ETF or just on 21% better off going with an S&P500 ETF.
How did the "experts" picks compare with the medium performance of share trader's picks in the competition for 2025 on the other forum ? (Keep in mind the experts had the luxury of picking overseas stocks whereas those in the sharetrader competitor did not). The mid-point contestants position 96 and 97, returned 14.7 and 14.8% respectively, outperforming all the experts except Salt and outperforming the average investment professional by a whopping 18%, approx 19% outperformance if you factor in brokerage of funds management fees. WOW, that's breathtaking.
My goodness, that's a very sad indictment on the abilities of the average "professional" investment advisor in N.Z. in 2025 isn't it !
Perhaps even more interestingly, the average share trader stock picker at 14.7% limited to the NZX outperformed the NZX50 by about 11% !
I think anyone who achieved more than the S&P500 index of about 16% for the year can give themselves a good pat on the back and feel very content with their stock picking performance for 2025.
well said Basil, good for all investors to recognize the under performance of most fund managers, not just this year as history shows us it is a common theme.
Have to say though Milford investments funds have provided returns well ahead of the average fund manager, this is also a repetitive theme, a big thanks to there team
Now anyone who follows Basil will know he likes to shuffle his portfolio round, a very smart dog he is
You're far too kind mate, I'm just a greedy Beagle following his nose for a feed and now well and truly overfed especially after Christmas lunch yesterday lol. Shuffling things around doesn't always work, (usually does). My sharetrader competition picks with no changes allowed, up 41.5% slightly outperformed my real portfolio this year. The repeated posts by an active anti mining activist on the other site about Santana eventually spooked me and I sold too early.
It has been a great year with the vast majority of my portfolio is sitting in a fund that tracks the sp500.
I've also done very well out of Turners, HLG and Tower on the NZX.
Also, I got a bit cute and threw a few hundred K at Salt and PIE Funds. The Salt fund has done really well. The PIE fund got off to a ripping start but has now given back much of those gains. I've put an order in to sell the PIE fund and I'm now need to decide where to deploy that cash.
I just wish there were more good options on the NZX.
Basil like you I sold Santana way too early. I couldn't see how the project stacked up against the market cap and the lack of news re the fast track application got to me.
Is it a coincidence that Salt was the top performer of the professionals in 2025 and 2024 ? I'm inclined to think maybe not.
Thanks Dolcile for sharing links to their monthly reports on their long / short fund. I've been quite impressed with the common sense approach they take. Not ever taking short positions myself, what they're doing might be a useful appendage to my approach at some point in the future.
PIE had a great year up to October. Their performance in the years before that 12 month spurt was only average.
Fisher funds ongoing under performance concerns me. I think they only pay lip service to their stated STEPP process and are paying too much for growth companies and / or keeping companies long after the narrative has fundamentally changed. They seem happy to keep holding in a downturn and do not appear to incorporate technical analysis in their approach at all.. Specifically, buying more in a confirmed downtrend is usually a flawed strategy but one they seem to use a lot. I only have a handful of Barramundi warrants left and am not holding my breath they will be worth exercising in August.
"I just wish there were more good options on the NZX" Dolcile.
I would argue there are a reasonable number of good companies but almost all of them are already fully priced.
The last 2 years have been my 2 best years in a decade with Tower, listed property, and precious metals the biggest contributors...
The broker picks are usually pretty poor as they rarely focus on a stock like Tower which was outside the NZX50 until it's already doubled and then been included...
My best idea for the next 12 months is Sky City but the key to me is never commit more than 10% of your capital in case you are wrong...
Forsyth Barr
Ebos Group, Port of Tauranga, Oceania Healthcare, Mainfreight, Mastercard
Hamilton Hindin Greene
Ryman Healthcare, Vital Healthcare Property Trust, Freightways, Heartland Group, Alphabet Inc
Amova Asset Management
(formerly Nikko Asset Management) Summerset Group Holdings, Infratil, Spark, Kiwi Property, Bio-Techne
Salt Funds Management
Heartland Group, NZME, Fletcher Building, Ebos Group, CSL
Craigs Investment Partners
Summerset Group Holdings, Freightways, Ebos Group, Mercury NZ, Schneider Electric
PS.
Think 2026 will be a cracker year for me as I have not picked any of the brokers's picks..lol
I have had a few nzx winners this year. One fund I like going forward is
ASR - I'm up 48% ytd - should continue up with this commodity surge.
One im watching for 2026 is ERD. Bottom feeder.
Brokers and Fund Managers are not good at analysing risk or looking at the big picture and obviously have a vested interest in promoting equities. A bit like banks and property companies endlessly talking up the property market.
Warren Buffet has been a net seller of equities for the last couple of years for good reason - over-valued companies and an over-pumped market. Same applies here, imo. Not the time to trying to squeeze out the last % point of return whilst ignoring risk. Advice for 2026? Tread cautiously. Or go on holiday. ;D
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 26, 2025, 09:39 PMPS.
Think 2026 will be a cracker year for me as I have not picked any of the brokers's picks..lol
Well yes, their forecasts are as random as everybody elses ... though, random means not always bad ... its random.
From a personal view - I think retirement villages (and they mention SUM, RYM and OCA) will keep firming up, and will HGH. Transport like Mainfreight and FRE typicall do well at the start of a new boom (here is hopeful).
Not sure about the other proposals - some might be lifted with the tide, but nothing special I can see.
Holding (from the above) some retirement stocks (all three, but not equal) and HGH.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 27, 2025, 11:13 AMBrokers and Fund Managers are not good at analysing risk or looking at the big picture and obviously have a vested interest in promoting equities. A bit like banks and property companies endlessly talking up the property market.
Warren Buffet has been a net seller of equities for the last couple of years for good reason - over-valued companies and an over-pumped market. Same applies here, imo. Not the time to trying to squeeze out the last % point of return whilst ignoring risk. Advice for 2026? Tread cautiously. Or go on holiday. ;D
Going on holiday is always a good idea. Question is just - where to store the cash?
Actually - this is one of the things the brokers don't seem to worry about. When do we expect the AI bubble to deflate?
I'm not planning on doing much trading at all in 2026.
I'll be holding all of my larger positions, especially HLG, TRA and TWR for dividend income, and trusting that HGH and the few SPK I still hold show some upside.
Others in my portfolio include FRW, MCY, SUM & SCL and they should do ok too.
I'm looking forward to big things from PEB late in the year. It's my play money investment and will either fly high and give me a lovely bonus or crash and struggle and I'll write it off.
My Aussie holdings are all over the place especially XRO. Currently AUD112, down from a high in the 180s. They only owe me around $5 each so I can wait for their recovery.
An interesting year ahead for New Zealand, and Australia. Good luck to all.
I think investors need to understand that the main brokers are generally risk averse with portfolios chosen for stable, lower risk exposure with capital preservation key. They are also based on long term investing not for traders or investors with a higher risk appetite.
Anyway hopefully 2026 will be a good one.
Wow that was an interesting year. Talk about a game of snakes and ladders. I started jumping onto a a snake...SPK in March April 2024 to make a quick $50,000 over a couple months and breaking all of KBs and Basils rules buying and selling, all my eggs in one basket, in a down trend. LOL. A loss of over 300K. But split it into two financial years to halve the pain. So in March April 2025 was fortunate to have a couple of term deposits maturing plus selling 95% of SPK holding and chucked it all into 17 different companies over the following 6 months and now on the ladder, up a bit over $337,000 including divs and interest in the last 9 months. Wow back to square one, LOL. Am expecting another 60 to 70k in divs in next 3 months not including FSF $2 pay out. Happy old year and a happy new year to all investors and traders out there. We all deserve a 4 day break 8)
Quote from: seaweed on Dec 31, 2025, 02:32 PMWow that was an interesting year. Talk about a game of snakes and ladders. I started jumping onto a a snake...SPK in March April 2024 to make a quick $50,000 over a couple months and breaking all of KBs and Basils rules buying and selling, all my eggs in one basket, in a down trend. LOL. A loss of over 300K. But split it into two financial years to halve the pain. So in March April 2025 was fortunate to have a couple of term deposits maturing plus selling 95% of SPK holding and chucked it all into 17 different companies over the following 6 months and now on the ladder, up a bit over $337,000 including divs and interest in the last 9 months. Wow back to square one, LOL. Am expecting another 60 to 70k in divs in next 3 months not including FSF $2 pay out. Happy old year and a happy new year to all investors and traders out there. We all deserve a 4 day break 8)
Thanks for sharing seaweed....I always appreciate the honesty and lack of ego in your posts. There are good learnings there. SPK was a very humbling experience for many. Thankfully not me.
Like you I found 2025 an 'interesting' year and I don't pay any attention to Brokers picks (although I hope they are right on HGH lol)
In terms of investing strategy I differ from you by preferring long term SP capital appreciation plus dividends (ie no short term trading.)
However, 2025 humbled my so called 'safe' longer term investments in FPH ( SP down 0.6% over 12 months to end Dec excl dividends) and IFT (down 10.8% on the same basis.) Thankfully I'm well ahead in these companies longer term.... but they underperformed in 2026.
Mind you, following the 'dogs of 2025' theory, perhaps IFT & FPH will outperform in 2026!!!???
In 2025 my most risky LT investments in IKE and PEB outperformed up 123% and 55% helped by other relatively more secure long term investments TWR (up 51.6% excl divvies) FSF (up 21.9%) HGH (up 21.%) plus PGW (up 40%) with only PGW now out of my portfolio.
Thankfully 2025 was good for me overall on the NZX beating both NZX 50 and S&P 500 indexes. So feeling 'well positioned,' and looking forward to nice bonus divvies early in 2026, although I remain ever cautious.
My biggest market caution in 2026/7 is the festering Russia/Ukraine & China/Taiwan threats in a world where USA is looking inwards and backwards.
Happy New Year all.
Really happy to hear you climbed out of the Spark hole Seaweed. Looking forward to catching up with you again in early March.
Advance notice of next get together.
Where: Headquarters in the Viaduct Auckland
When: Sunday 1 March long lunch kicking off at 1 pm
Special attendees: KW and Moosie are making a special trip up from Christchurch for this.
It should be a very happy occasion with lots of lively discussion about best prospects for returns going forward. All welcome. Happy New Year all.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 01, 2026, 01:38 PMReally happy to hear you climbed out of the Spark hole Seaweed. Looking forward to catching up with you again in early March.
Advance notice of next get together.
Where: Headquarters in the Viaduct Auckland
When: Sunday 1 March long lunch kicking off at 1 pm
Special attendees: KW and Moosie are making a special trip up from Christchurch for this.
It should be a very happy occasion with lots of lively discussion about best prospects for returns going forward. All welcome. Happy New Year all.
basil if you take moosie out on your launch don't don't let him use your fishing gear, expensive day out for me when I took him out in the boat
Quote from: Basil on Jan 01, 2026, 01:38 PMReally happy to hear you climbed out of the Spark hole Seaweed. Looking forward to catching up with you again in early March.
Advance notice of next get together.
Where: Headquarters in the Viaduct Auckland
When: Sunday 1 March long lunch kicking off at 1 pm
Special attendees: KW and Moosie are making a special trip up from Christchurch for this.
It should be a very happy occasion with lots of lively discussion about best prospects for returns going forward. All welcome. Happy New Year all.
Sounds good Basil. I plan on attending.
Yeah, sounds good next ST meeting. Marked in calendar and looking forward to it.
Quote from: Left Field on Jan 01, 2026, 11:35 AM....following the 'dogs of 2025' theory, perhaps IFT & FPH will outperform in 2026!!!???
Heading in today's NBR
"NZX 50 closes at new record as heavyweights Infratil and Fisher & Paykel recover."
Maybe my 'dogs of 2025' theory is working already!?? ;)
Quote from: HAWKDOG on Dec 27, 2025, 09:32 AMI have had a few nzx winners this year. One fund I like going forward is
ASR - I'm up 48% ytd - should continue up with this commodity surge.
One im watching for 2026 is ERD. Bottom feeder.
ASR ripping today.
Yes, not sure if I mentioned if before or not but I picked up a holding in ASR last month.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 24, 2026, 01:04 PMYes, not sure if I mentioned if before or not but I picked up a holding in ASR last month.
If that's that Aussie resource ETF me too ----nabout 6 months ago
Good eh -- so good should have got heaps more
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 24, 2026, 01:25 PMIf that's that Aussie resource ETF me too ----nabout 6 months ago
Good eh -- so good should have got heaps more
That's the one. Nice entry.