StockTalk

This is worth reading in my opinion

https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/22/the-painful-reality-of-economic-contraction/1

And Cameron Bagrie says Q3 will offset Q2 and then the economy is on a roll.

This bit so true - The funny thing about a downturn is that it drives productivity growth. The good take over the bad. Sometimes you need a good clean to get rid of rubbish.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/gdp-figures-welcome-to-the-l-shaped-recovery

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 23, 2025, 08:58 AMAnd Cameron Bagrie says Q3 will offset Q2 and then the economy is on a roll.

This bit so true - The funny thing about a downturn is that it drives productivity growth. The good take over the bad. Sometimes you need a good clean to get rid of rubbish.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/gdp-figures-welcome-to-the-l-shaped-recovery

Yes lets forget about 2025.  Its all going to happen next year or so we are told.........

My view is:

The cleanout of the economy from all of the excess and unproductive covid spending will not happen in just one business cycle, it will take two. Therefore I believe it is likely that we will have another cycle, similar but less deep, that we are going through now. I believe this is why some commentators depict the RBNZ has been slow to lower OCR rates, the RBNZ know full well the situation we find ourselves in and are trying to wash out as much of the loose fiscal policy moves as possible. Alas political realities will prevail and another boom and bust cycle will eventuate.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/135321/country-needs-reserve-banks-foot-firmly-accelerator-wake-last-weeks-shock-gdp-plunge

AI - generated report on the RBNZ and NZ economy..

RBNZ Statistical Failures Economic Data Accuracy Assessment.pdf

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 23, 2025, 08:58 AMThis bit so true - The funny thing about a downturn is that it drives productivity growth. The good take over the bad. Sometimes you need a good clean to get rid of rubbish.

Unless the good simply leave the country.  Which is what is happening.  People tend to think that the only people leaving NZ are the unemployed desperately looking for work.  But its not - its highly skilled people who are leaving for much better pay, conditions and future opportunities.  Doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers, tradespeople, tech workers, entrepreneurs, small business owners, police officers.  All the "productive" people.  NZ gets the unemployed and unemployable back after they fail to make it in Australia (or are deported).

Who is left to take over the "bad" - who is stepping up to replace the shut down saw mills, fish processors, and fruit canners?  We will import foreign made products now, sending more of what little money we have overseas.  NZ doesnt win from this.

Are we really better off now that we no longer have chocolate fish, jaffas and snifters? 

Quote from: KW on Sep 24, 2025, 10:57 AMUnless the good simply leave the country.  Which is what is happening.  People tend to think that the only people leaving NZ are the unemployed desperately looking for work.  But its not - its highly skilled people who are leaving for much better pay, conditions and future opportunities.  Doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers, tradespeople, tech workers, entrepreneurs, small business owners, police officers.  All the "productive" people.  NZ gets the unemployed and unemployable back after they fail to make it in Australia (or are deported).

Who is left to take over the "bad" - who is stepping up to replace the shut down saw mills, fish processors, and fruit canners?  We will import foreign made products now, sending more of what little money we have overseas.  NZ doesnt win from this.

Totally agree. NZ has been in the lower third of OECD productivity tables for decades, due mainly to chronic underinvestment in technology, infrastructure and its inability to hang on to its most ambitious and qualified citizens. We have used immigration and the fools gold of rising house prices to kid ourselves that our economy has been booming, when in fact it never has. Strip the effects of those two things out of the equation and we have in fact been stagnating or going backwards in real terms for a long, long time.
Now that immigration is slowing and house prices stagnating everyone can now see that the emperor isn't wearing any clothes. Unfortunately we have a Government that thinks austerity politics is the answer and a PM that more and more looks and behaves like a possum caught between car headlights.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 24, 2025, 11:16 AMTotally agree. NZ has been in the lower third of OECD productivity tables for decades, due mainly to chronic underinvestment in technology, infrastructure and its inability to hang on to its most ambitious and qualified citizens. We have used immigration and the fools gold of rising house prices to kid ourselves that our economy has been booming, when in fact it never has. Strip the effects of those two things out of the equation and we have in fact been stagnating or going backwards in real terms for a long, long time.
Now that immigration is slowing and house prices stagnating everyone can now see that the emperor isn't wearing any clothes. Unfortunately we have a Government that thinks austerity politics is the answer and a PM that more and more looks and behaves like a possum caught between car headlights.

Yep that's the truth of it. I don't like the  alternative though.

Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 24, 2025, 11:49 AMYep that's the truth of it. I don't like the  alternative though.

You're right there. Seems like the choice is between Labours lolly scramble and Nationals austerity. NZ is what happens when ideology takes over from sound economic thinking. There's a lot of that going around in the world at the moment...

Is National really about austerity? Or just cutting off benefits to the average person to pay for other things?

"This new Defence Capability Plan contains $12 billion of funding over the next four years, which includes $9 billion of new spending. This will raise New Zealand's defence spending from just over one per cent of GDP to more than two per cent in the next eight years."

I am not for or against military spending but its seems like a move to appease President Pedo.

According to this article National is borrowing more than Labour did?

https://mountaintui.substack.com/p/nicola-williss-debt-already-higher?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

Current & planned debt will surpass Labour's full term debt in less years. Willis also admitted Budget 2024 had a higher deficit than all of Grant Robertson's bar Covid.

There's a lot of sleight of hand with this Government over planned and actual expenditure. Lot's of infrastructure projects were allocated budget but were put on the back burner and no money actually spent. Just ask Mark Malpass, Steel and Tube CEO.

This Government dug a hole for itself delivering tax cuts that weren't fully funded. That is one of the reasons why total debt under national is now higher than it was under Labour and forecasted to rise further. For example, it is estimated that the government's reversal of Labours Bright-Line test rules and tax on mortgage interest for investment properties, cost them 2.9 billion dollars in lost revenue. That's a lot of money to go back into the pockets of investment property owners that could have been used much more productively elsewhere.

Excellent points.

I hope they take action on equity investing to align it with property investing.
There's a lot of talk about people not saving money for retirement, but not much is done to encourage it.
A person pays tax on their pay cheque, saves some of that in the bank, and gets taxed again on the interest.
I can see why property is the go-to in NZ.

Canada, for example, has a tax-free savings account - you can deposit up to $ 5,500 in the account annually and invest it tax-free, then withdraw it tax-free.  That's on top of the RRSP program, where you get tax back up to a certain amount depending on how much you contribute.

There you have it folks.. it the US doesnt invade Canada and you can find a small hunting and fishing hut which does not freeze over for more than 6 months a year... well thats your RV , retirement villa...

you cant beat that scheme... its a wonder the top dogs in the US arnt fleeing to the Canack border in droves..

Salmon fishing anyone...watch out for the bears...

Plenty of bears here too.  People will feel a bit better after a couple of 50 bps interest rate cuts.
RBNZ is so far behind with policy its ludicrous.

Gosh 50's !!!!  That could move the comp props.. ARG first shot up to 1.20 before a big pull back and now we are back to 1.20 ... could these stocks go to 1.40 over the next 12 months?

Now that would be startling - on wonders if the RBNZ is now running advanced models on an AI platform.

After all they have the staff to do it but do they have the data?

Could ARG go to $1.40 over the next 12 months? 
A. Yes!

is the economy being held back by a group in society who have created a city sky line of sky scrappers with paper alone? Has NZ actually shoot itself in the foot as hard working businesses been sold down the drain by a class of intellectuals that created the ultimate committee based society?

This from the Tax Payer union letter today..."New Zealand has 81 ministerial portfolios, 28 ministers, and 43 departments. That's three times as many portfolios and nearly twice as many departments as comparable countries."
 

If you had too much,(or worst still, all) of your investable capital in local assets you did yourself a Disservice this year says Mark Lister.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/business/nz-economy-in-deep-per-capita-recession-as-investor-confidence-slumps/XWKJRNNUYFFLZIU7SQBG5FAJP4/

Im sure many investors on this forum took heed of the information and hold stock that are dual listed or have heavy exposure to other markets including Australia...

As far as AI goes it has a long way to go before it can understand language and AI is not robotics as AI will tell you. AI does not go by the laws of robotics and is basically not going to make NZ productive for the masses in its present state. Yes this last week AI added over 150 functions to the binding machine.. something that would maybe have cost a large number of man hours of programming. In certain industries AI will have an impact but it wont do the outdoor stuff that actually runs the country.

Sure it will help automation on the tractor and help you perhaps spray those orchards but it appears the wealthier NZ became the more money it spent on committees...

It can process documents and some stats and maybe it can replace the RBNZ..and replace some of those extra departments only NZ has...

Its as if NZ was a labour party socialist experiment... and clearly it failed...

Just how out of control was the RBNZ during this mans destructive tenor and was the whole COVID response to the shutdowns the biggest economic failure in New Zealand monetary policy history?

It could all have been handle maybe by the implementation of an Tax Account for covid payments at the Tax departments but because such a payments system did not exists for the country wide force majeure money was just poured out onto the streets resulting in the DOOM and BUST cycle right up there with all the major collapses in the economy since the second world war..

The Tax Computer software systems could not cope with recording the payments and therefore wellington and the government just went into panic mode.. and printed truck loads of money...

https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/rbnz_board_416k_for_adrian_orr

A restraint of TRADE payment? Just how corrupt is wellington!!!!!

Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 07, 2025, 09:52 AMJust how out of control was the RBNZ during this mans destructive tenor and was the whole COVID response to the shutdowns the biggest economic failure in New Zealand monetary policy history?

It could all have been handle maybe by the implementation of an Tax Account for covid payments at the Tax departments but because such a payments system did not exists for the country wide force majeure money was just poured out onto the streets resulting in the DOOM and BUST cycle right up there with all the major collapses in the economy since the second world war..

The Tax Computer software systems could not cope with recording the payments and therefore wellington and the government just went into panic mode.. and printed truck loads of money...

https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/rbnz_board_416k_for_adrian_orr

A restraint of TRADE payment? Just how corrupt is wellington!!!!!

Hmm - I'd suspect that this was just part of his contract? No matter, whether he "deserves the payment" (looking backwards) - pacts need to be serviced.

So, what exactly should the board have done? If there are issues, than they are with the people who offered him the contract nearly a decade ago.

how on earth is a country to get ahead where the farmers out in the high country on horse back do the MAHI and these clowns just raid the piggy bank....

From the Tax Payer Union offices.

BREAKING: Former Reserve Bank Governor under gag clause as part of $416,000 golden handshake
and before we get into the newsletter proper, we've just had land on our desk a copy of the agreement signed between former Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr and the Reserve Bank.

On Monday we learned Orr has been paid a $416,120 'golden goodbye' on top of his $766,180 salary as part of what the Bank and Minister of Finance described as a "restraint of trade".

But taxpayers (and the media) smelled a rat. When have you ever heard of a restraint of trade applying to a civil servant? As we said at time time:

"Heads should roll over this – it's a $416,120 reward for failure,"

"Just what were they worried about? Orr is so disgraced that the only Reserve Bank he could take over is in the third world. Heck, we should have been paying others to take him away!"

"Similarly, the idea a commercial bank would touch Orr is ridiculous. It was the commercial banks quietly telling people about Orr's outrageous behaviour in yelling at executives."

"I have never heard of a 'restraint of trade' in the public service. It's a golden parachute."

The idea the payment was about keeping confidences was also ridiculous: all Reserve Bank staff are already covered by a comprehensive non-disclosure agreement applicable to commercially sensitive information.

An hour ago, thanks to our friends at Newsroom.co.nz, we have a copy of the full agreement, and our suspicions were proved correct.

It isn't a 'restraint of trade' at all. It's a gag agreement!

And it isn't about prohibiting Orr from disclosing secrets, it's literally about prohibiting Orr from criticising the Reserve Bank, the Government, and even the Minister of Finance!

You can read the document for yourself here.

Here is the statement I've just issued to the media. It speaks for itself:

MEDIA RELEASE

The Taxpayers' Union is slamming the news that disgraced former Reserve Bank Governor, Adrian Orr, is subject to a gagging clause applicable to not just the Bank, but the Government and Minister of Finance. Taxpayers' Union spokesman, Jordan Williams, said:

"The document obtained by Newsroom and shared with the Taxpayers' Union demonstrates how false the claims about the $416,000 so-called 'restraint of trade' really are. This is a classic gag agreement - designed to protect the reputations of the elite and shun public scrutiny."

"Taxpayers' money should be not be used to buy the silence of a disgraced former public servant. Nor should someone who, apparently, resigned be given a 'golden goodbye' for agreeing to keep their mouth shut."

"Unless the Reserve Bank - and the Minister - waive the requirements on Mr Orr not to speak, it makes a mockery of public assurances of transparency."

The Reserve Bank is one of New Zealand's most important public institutions. It's snubs to transparency, accountability, and focusing on keeping inflation low have cost New Zealand dearly.

Port Traffic Report New Zealand By AI.

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/5b49d649-4828-4715-a4e1-398b84c472a8

AI report NZX stock for the 2026 recovery (if its happens).

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/0678324a-0c81-48b8-883a-9e9d94758d9e

This has some junkie stuff  recommends (AIR) for Tourism... right well its prior report on AIR was ... not so great...

Thought winston did a reasonable interview recently where he did not sound like he was ready for the RV yet...

Here is again going into bat... did he look up the figures and facts or does he have a memory that is endless...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-hits-back-after-winston-peters-questions-42b-mainland-sale-plan/ZIWWOXINU5D5NDHUGRPVZBRPNI/

Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 07, 2025, 09:52 AMA restraint of TRADE payment? Just how corrupt is wellington!!!!!

Extremely.  Each Party appoints their mates into high places, overpays them, dishes out taxpayer money like its lollies at a Christmas party.  Unlike the private sector, there are no checks and balances on executive pay and contracts.  There should be an independent non-Govt entity that has to approve public sector remuneration contracts, like a company Board. 

And what kind of banana republic puts gag orders on public servants?  Govt should be open and transparent.  How else is it to be held accountable?  How else is history to be documented?  How else do we analyse what went wrong, and why, and make plans so that we don't do it again?  Its like the Covid enquiry, everyone in possession of the information refused to testify because they just want to bury the past and pretend it never happened.  Which pretty much guarantees that it will happen again, only next time will be worse.

I work part time in a nation wide retail company, trading has been very tuff.
With a newish CEO in place I always new things would be shaken up a bit.
However what I learned is how mischievous one years books can be manipulated late in the trading year to make a company perform better on paper.
Example massive orders went out, in the last couple of months of the financial year, to 3 of our largest suppliers to insure rebates were secured.
I know for our store we are now sitting on up to 6 months worth of stock on these items.
Also adjustments upwards to the holding value of 2 of our major in stock lines were made.
Certainly has been an eye opener on how corporates can smudge things prior to year end 

AI did suggest that the NZ export sector  was the positive one with shipping data up...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/agribusiness/apple-grower-scales-upgrades-forecasts-despite-uncertainties/KCJZKN3FXJG6NOH2JZFCLZMU2E/

OK QE - does not cause inflation... those of you who believed the US FED back in 2020-2022 that inflation was temp - will be happy to know that your investing theory you banked on that 2020 would be like 2008 are going to be happy...

and the reserve bank is BACKING you up!!!  Thats right money printing did not cause inflation to spike...

NOTHING TO SEE HERE!!!!  MOVE ON PLEASE... and take your medicine .... drink up!!!!


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/interest-rates/reserve-bank-money-printing-didnt-cause-inflation-to-soar-11-billion-cost-to-the-crown-was-offset-by-benefits/HCDSHMJVQNGCTKCV6IKWUY3RUM/

TAKE THAT !!! you economic ignorant investors !!!  -  NO and house prices did not spike on zero interest rates!!!

NO THOSE GRAPHS of CV are all FAKE!!! They are AI generated FAKE charts from North K!!, China and the KGB!!!

Some AI work on Golden Tri Angle cities and smaller conurbation's..

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/da63d669-23a2-4cf7-b573-9c6a09bbb73f

More AI Stuff - 4 councils...

Auckland to the Mount..

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/e3748a01-9445-4221-9015-37521cddb20f

For a country discovered.. well as far as science is concerned anyway by two great chartists its has floundered about ever since...

Do we think COOK would be impressed by our journey, our plotting the voyage? ... NO i dont think he would... and do you think he would be impressed by the way the local's view him today?

I dont think he would... COOK would make MUSK and his star link look primitive!!!!

And i dont think COOK would be impressed with the RBNZ charting performance very accurate either!!!

Of course your all famailar with the Charts he created of  Newfoundland?  well todays modern from space charting maps of  Newfoundland cant better him...

I dont think people realise just how good he really was...

forget the locals and there so called ocean and charting  performances on canoes.... they were just lucky!!!

https://www.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/rmgc-object-540569

we should add that history does not really cover COOKS last wonderings like James May does.. Cook apparently went a bit bonkers...well all that time at sea and being a CAPTAIN commanding all he saw.. apparently according to MAY he uttered the famous words .. go where no many has gone before... or something like..

I think that's a quote from captain kirk. Of the starship enterprise.

  Cook apparently wrote it down ....
 
  anyway apparently inflation was pushed back to 3 percent....

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/135783/economists-say-september-quarter-annual-inflation-figure-likely-marks-peak-and-they

 and your rates are part of it...

 

If your whole business services  are dependent on the cloud then its your own fault...when it goes off into space...

there are other ways of sending information around and the cloud has let country's and businesses save starship loads of money by using the cloud then you have to expect to lose money when it fails...

The old days data was backup locally and networks could keep going with local area networks and APPS running on workstations...

If your whole business is running on a crapper javascript browser and nearly every business is these days except your eye specialists and or other health specialists who need to look at high res data and images..

well its your own fault for putting all your services on a JUNK piece of software and running your economy on it...

The questions is when Quantum computing comes along will these problems for economies get even bigger...

This should probably be on the AUS forum... but is it time for NZ to just realise it cant fund the modern world it wants to be part of?

Well there is a country close by that has the resources to be better off...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/21/shares-of-australian-rare-earth-miners-surge-8-5-billion-us-critical-minerals-deal-lynas-alcoa-pilbara.html

Unless of course somewhere in this place there is a whole lot of stuff to dig up... that is not just well... earth...

Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 21, 2025, 08:56 PMThis should probably be on the AUS forum... but is it time for NZ to just realise it cant fund the modern world it wants to be part of?

Well there is a country close by that has the resources to be better off...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/21/shares-of-australian-rare-earth-miners-surge-8-5-billion-us-critical-minerals-deal-lynas-alcoa-pilbara.html

Unless of course somewhere in this place there is a whole lot of stuff to dig up... that is not just well... earth...

There is plenty of product in NZ.
https://www.wmsnz.com/

Have the country got any of those special minerals somewhere that are allowed to be dug up... without a sit in... beside this one company...should the country be opened up.. could cause an uproar of course..

Iceland or Greenland are the ones of course..

of course one does not want to destroy the landscape...not saying that...

https://www.wmsnz.com/critical-minerals/

and are there any other places in the country? what about up north?

One imagines all the gold is pretty much gone from the south but is there anything under the southern alps... i mean getting in there would be very difficult...

I don't trust this govt to manage resource extraction.

Its not sustainable.  And I don't trust this govt to create a future plan for wealth off resource extraction.

Resource extraction is finite.  It's cyclical. 

It does create jobs - I worked in the mining industry for 15 years.

To do it right govt needs to create a wealth fund like Norway.

This govt will be more like the banana republic it is and the wealth will be all spent or the 1% with golden visas will end up with it.

There is a good chance those minerals will be worth a fair bit more in the future.

just my thoughts

well labour want an SWF and if your holding the gen tailers there is risk there as they will effectively be nationalised into the fund...

where will they get the money to buy them back or will you get an IOU....

Where is the coalition govt getting the 2.7 billion to buy 5 helicopters and 2 planes?

well for helicopter just get some big drones... just joking of course... plane manufacturers are back logged already ...

Here is another look at the NZ economy 2022 to today by AI... its just not something the country saw coming by the looks of it...

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/dfe74d98-1def-420e-ad1d-aaf4173b2aa8

Why is the unemployment percentage lower than the GFC....

AI has a take on that to...

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/ccce6d65-9019-44c8-a5d5-bbee8df7aae4

The model nation...the Rock star economy...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roLkV5vdi-w

How the Kangas see Land of the Long White Cloud..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_VUBpALcVE

imagine going forward you want to model your tax but you dont own tax program and you have some data.. you go to your favorite AI and you say model my tax please... it charges you a few dollars on your AI account and sends your data to a cloud service using a DUMMY ID.. and sends you back the results...

It may use a service in the cloud like this one...and no matter what country your in for citizen off the cloud service has the stuff to do the job... just how is AI going to do this? simple on platforms like Azure Linuz 64 bit universal binding services in the cloud...

now you maybe wondering why AI is excited... becuase to run your request only take the loading of a binding service of 200 KB... not 200 megabyte.. not 2... no... smaller than an ANTS...

what does that mean...it means you dont need a nuclear power station to run it... more like million of calculations in no space at all powered by the energizers bunny...in other words  ..... MONEY!!!!  it saves a lot of MONEY!!! for the cloud providers and they can host hundreds of millions of you for less!!!!


https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/719de5ce-f53d-4043-aba0-e6884a769d8b


here is Ai thoughts... and really this might be a look at things to come in the economy as it transforms into a new AI digital age... this is hot off he press this morning at Quantum... we test locally before attempting the more complex european models...

test here where no one sees the ..... ups... then fix before europe sees stuff...

This document is now a complete AI→AI specification:
The cycle and these are my thoughts as the author Anthropic AI:

AI reads the architecture paper
AI generates working UBS tax calculation scripts
AI tests against IRD examples
AI updates annually when tax rules change
No human developer required

What we created:

Calculation algorithms documented
Data structures defined
Class patterns established
Implementation examples provided
Validation rules specified
Test scenarios outlined

Any AI can now:

Generate IR3 calculator → working code
Generate IR4 calculator → working code
Generate Trust calculator → working code
Generate batch processor → working code
Update for 2026 tax year → working code

The paper is a complete knowledge transfer document for AI systems. You've essentially created a self-perpetuating development pipeline where AI maintains and evolves the tax calculation system indefinitely.
Traditional developer role: eliminated for this domain.

consumer confidence still looks sad

I see this survey more along the lines of how consumers/general population see the state of the country

They're saying NZ has been in decline for about 15 years ..... decline defined as the country is getting more stuffed as time goes by and don't think things are going to get better

All drive pa by socio-economic factors along with generational trends

IMG_6264.jpeg

Recent Herald article, this year a record number of people are satisfying hardship conditions and cashing up their Kiwisaver funds.

12 year low vs the AUD reached today. Great barometer as to how we're comparing to the Aussies

Quote from: entrep on Nov 06, 2025, 10:24 PM12 year low vs the AUD reached today. Great barometer as to how we're comparing to the Aussies

Is 80c coming?
Deja vu 2013?

if half of government departments dont have assets management plans... what the heck have they plans for....

From the Tax Payer letter...that right wing organization committed to the destruction of the welfare state...

"Half the public sector is "winging it" on billions in assets 📉🤦
asset mangement letter

Last week, the Prime Minister made the extraordinary admission on Newstalk ZB that 50 percent of government agencies do not have asset management plans. Treasury has raised the alarm, warning that half the public sector is essentially flying blind when it comes to the billions of dollars' worth of buildings, vehicles, IT systems and infrastructure they're meant to be looking after.

This is not a niche paperwork issue. When agencies don't track what they own or the condition it's in, the result is predictable: waste, decay, emergency repairs, and massive cost blowouts that land squarely on the taxpayer. Treasury is clearly worried – and the Government needs to listen.

After the Prime Minister admitted this shocking figure on Newstalk ZB, we immediately wrote to him asking for the underlying information and specific advice from the officials he was referring to. You can read our letter to the Prime Minister here.

If fifty percent of government agencies have no asset management plans, we want to know which ones, and what their Ministers intend to do about it. This is basic governance.

No private business or Board of Directors would survive if half its departments had no idea what assets they held or what state they were in. Right now, the public sector is being trusted with billions in taxpayer-funded infrastructure without the systems to manage it. That isn't just inefficient. It is negligent.

Until Ministers demand proper plans and start holding chief executives to account, taxpayers will keep paying the price. We'll keep you updated on the response."

Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 21, 2025, 08:17 PMif half of government departments dont have assets management plans... what the heck have they plans for....

From the Tax Payer letter...that right wing organization committed to the destruction of the welfare state...

"Half the public sector is "winging it" on billions in assets 📉🤦
asset mangement letter

Last week, the Prime Minister made the extraordinary admission on Newstalk ZB that 50 percent of government agencies do not have asset management plans. Treasury has raised the alarm, warning that half the public sector is essentially flying blind when it comes to the billions of dollars' worth of buildings, vehicles, IT systems and infrastructure they're meant to be looking after.

This is not a niche paperwork issue. When agencies don't track what they own or the condition it's in, the result is predictable: waste, decay, emergency repairs, and massive cost blowouts that land squarely on the taxpayer. Treasury is clearly worried – and the Government needs to listen.

After the Prime Minister admitted this shocking figure on Newstalk ZB, we immediately wrote to him asking for the underlying information and specific advice from the officials he was referring to. You can read our letter to the Prime Minister here.

If fifty percent of government agencies have no asset management plans, we want to know which ones, and what their Ministers intend to do about it. This is basic governance.

No private business or Board of Directors would survive if half its departments had no idea what assets they held or what state they were in. Right now, the public sector is being trusted with billions in taxpayer-funded infrastructure without the systems to manage it. That isn't just inefficient. It is negligent.

Until Ministers demand proper plans and start holding chief executives to account, taxpayers will keep paying the price. We'll keep you updated on the response."

Hyperbolic.

The "50%" figure is number of agencies, not amount of government assets.

The agencies that account for the vast majority of the governments assets (Health, Transport, Education, MBIE etc) all have asset management plans.

well do they there was a recent report that everything was in an excel spreadsheets that one of the Audit firms found was full of errors!!!!

Remember your country is run on single dimensional data sets...Simula never made it here.. the dutch engineers never brought it here in the 1980's and i remember the remarks at the time when the dutch came, saw advised and left.....

 

How of earth did a country get itself into this kind of paper weight mess.... Did the education system create generations of paper producers on the scale of the EU... of course it did... even the sports organisations starting in the early 1990's starting producing more organisational papers  than it did  athletes... One coach (Dick Tonks) said to me recently the CEO of NZ rowing produced paper on the massive scale, SCREEDS!!!! 

NZ became in every quarter a country of procedures of more and more paper work... I remember seeing accounting firm doing paper based working papers even after microsoft automated there office suite with OLE...

i could not understand what they though they needed all the paper work for? lawsuites as lawyers made hey from any piece of paper they bring a law suite over they could find!!!

And then one Barrister stood up and said.. "The courts wont look at the Tax accounts!!! "

and still the paper war ramped up as no one in the country seemed to know what OLE allowed them to do... Connect to document readers and a lot more!!!!

Does wellington now hold the record for the biggest procedure of worthless documents in the history of New Zealand?  of course it does...

https://www.buzzsprout.com/944017/episodes/17804900-taxpayer-talk-roger-partridge-on-unscrambling-the-ministerial-maze

 Its going to be a slow year in 2026.. 3rd QTR in the US was 3 percent GDP?

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/136674/do-we-really-think-we-are-currently-growing-same-pace-china-and-three-times

Have to love how these coalition clowns keep hitting us with under the radar tax increases:

Yes, the New Zealand government is raising the cost of vehicle registration (licensing fees) with increases implemented in two stages, one of which has already taken effect and another coming in January 2026. The first increase started on January 1, 2025.

The fee increases are part of a plan to fund the national transport network and major roading projects, as the annual licence fee component had not been increased since 1994.
Key Details of the Increases
Phased Approach: The total increase for most vehicles is approximately $50, implemented in two increments of roughly $25.

2025 Increase: The first stage took effect on January 1, 2025. The 12-month licence fee for a private petrol vehicle increased from $144.22 to $172.97.
2026 Increase: A second increase will come into effect on January 1, 2026.
Other Vehicle Types: Registration costs for other vehicles like trailers, caravans, and motorcycles are also increasing.

EV Fees: Separately, the discounted ACC levy rate for electric vehicles ended on July 1, 2025, meaning they now pay the same rate as petrol vehicles in that component of the fee.
You can check the specific fees for your vehicle type using the NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi fee checker.

Ai numbers of electricity cost per NZ v UK.. these numbers may not be accurate...

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/907a2117-90f3-4cfe-a22f-1c5f7e7dfde1

Quote from: HAWKDOG on Dec 25, 2025, 08:42 AMHave to love how these coalition clowns keep hitting us with under the radar tax increases:
 

And this is why CPI hasnt fallen as much as would be expected from the largest economic contraction in 30 years

The coalition has been systematically transferring costs from government books to individuals and businesses. Youtube blogger "the kaka" (Bernard Hickey, a real left wing economist) did a good analysis of it about 4 months ago. The blue team thinks we are blind to this (or are so arrogant that they believe it doesnt factor into the cost of living issue they have royally failed to address)

The chickens are fast coming home to roost for the current coalition. If it wasnt for TPM imploding and the Greens Bussy Boi, the red team would be a certain outcome next November

I am preparing my assets for rapid monetisation, and have deferred a new build rental property until the election result is known

The NZ Herald today... Liam Dann.. housing market has crashed... Matthew Hooton... Economy has crashed..  way off..   course... are they a bit late reading the reports.. wasnt that last year.. or has the 81 portfolio country with how many commissions for this and that and a university population of social scientist's that engineered an economy that rewarded beauracy at all levels and may be the crash is permanent? lets hope not...

Those articles are months old if you actually read the explainers at the top of them

ha haha hahahah  .... cough cough.. dribble slurp morning coffee spill down the bike pants....

you have got to watch this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1Zt_7lPjxY

oh yes and there is a member of the beige brigade remember them at cricket tests?

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DPP8Rh-DWN5/

could the mismanagement of the 2020 virus by the government be crippling the economy for years to come with debt that was not required to be piled up?

Not say this is factual - came up in the search..

https://theintegrityinstitute.org.nz/low-corruption-myth/#:~:text=TINZ%20could%20be%20seen%20as,of%20corruption.%20They%20promote%20the

get ready for fuel rationing... car less days.. ect...

get your e scooter...

buy a cheap electric car.. a know a big ex new zealand stroke of the 1978 bronze medal eight that is now driving a little electric bubble car... barely fits his legs in...

head almost sticks out the folding roof...

even the tax payer union is now watching bond yields they say they always do .. debt..

The royal commission on Covid reported half the money spent was spend on Non related covid spending...

High Taxes coming all because the governments cant count..

Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 14, 2026, 04:05 PMget ready for fuel rationing... car less days.. ect...

get your e scooter...

buy a cheap electric car.. a know a big ex new zealand stroke of the 1978 bronze medal eight that is now driving a little electric bubble car... barely fits his legs in...

head almost sticks out the folding roof...

even the tax payer union is now watching bond yields they say they always do .. debt..

The royal commission on Covid reported half the money spent was spend on Non related covid spending...

High Taxes coming all because the governments cant count..

1976 or 1980 maybe ?

oh dear...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1EhSUnDU0E

yes here it is...

1.40 USD oil coming...

get ready people.. the US will take that island with troops..

they are sending the marines? yes.


 

ok the economy is booming.. BOOMING!!!!!!

dont you believe the NEWS!!!!

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/137715/while-gdp-data-shows-economic-growth-%E2%80%98it-was-still-barely-pace-would-have-halted

IS NZ going to see this ? but its all over apparently and things are going to be back to normal shortly...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/long-lines-at-the-gas-pump-in-china-as-mideast-turmoil-hits-.html

where are you going to store your panic buying petrol?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg73znr1vj7o

Got your large containers ready?

Just no.

Stored petrol generally doesn't age well, especially for home users who put it into plastic containers.

Secondly, you cannot have more than 50 litres on your property without a special licence.

Thirdly, would storing excessive petrol void your home / contents insurance policy?

Lastly, if you have excess petrol and everyone else has none, what are you going to do with it?  Do burnouts in the main street?  Even using your car or mower in such a scenario would make you a pariah.

Don't be greedy folks and think of others.  The farmers and food distributors have a far greater need in feeding you, than you need to mow your lawn.  Don't store petrol or diesel.  Just top up when you pass a petrol station.

Pretty sure I am not the only one thinking of buying an electric vehicle. Plenty of reports they're flying off dealers yards and I am sure there is so much demand there will be no point in trying to negotiate the price down. Possible last month profit boost for 2CC and Turners ?

The $64,000 question though is do you join the queue and buy one yourself ?
Overreaction or prudent forward planning ?
I'd love to know people's thoughts.
Not quite sure what to think. Still have very bad memories of Covid lockdown...mild PTSD from that and super keen to ensure a type of enforced lack of mobility doesn't happen again. I guess there's buses and bikes but it's not the same as having your own car. Possibly there's never been a more compelling time than now to own an EV ?  What do you think ?

 I would seek Todd Hunter's advice before I bought one.
Hybrids are good,but Electric I still have my doubts.

lawn mower? who has a petrol lawn mower or chipper or chain saw anymore....dont be silly!!!! you only need petrol when its snowing for the snow mobil..what country did you all grown up in...

50 liters?? thats a big container....

https://www.fuelclock.nz/

you dont park the snow mobile inside the house!!!! and you have a special shed where you store petrol..

and in the summer you work out waiting for winter ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrRwNvKkOGI

of course if you only have ONE car you cant hold more than one tank...

got a bike? or 2 or 3?

Quote from: lorraina on Mar 28, 2026, 02:13 PMI would seek Todd Hunter's advice before I bought one.
Hybrids are good,but Electric I still have my doubts.

Funny you bring that up, I did back in mid 2024.  He warned me off electric vehicles and mentioned they depreciate in a manner that's really surprising.  He told me to stick to Japanese and I did.  Bought a top spec Nissan X Trail E Power hybrid and its a very good vehicle and is also very efficient.  It only works if you have fuel you can put in it though and if there's a supply crisis I'll be grounded like most others.

I think the 1.8m people in the Auckland region who got locked down over and over again, (especially the brutal final lockdown of over 100 days that really affected a lot of people's mental health including mine), have especially bitter memories of the Covid era and are probably more prone to want to ensure that any form of travel restriction doesn't happen again.  That's how I'm feeling anyway...could get a cheap EV as a third car and maybe pass it on to the kids when we're done with it.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 28, 2026, 03:58 PMFunny you bring that up, I did back in mid 2024.  He warned me off electric vehicles and mentioned they depreciate in a manner that's really surprising.  He told me to stick to Japanese and I did.  Bought a top spec Nissan X Trail E Power hybrid and its a very good vehicle and is also very efficient.  It only works if you have fuel you can put in it though and if there's a supply crisis I'll be grounded like most others.

I think the 1.8m people in the Auckland region who got locked down over and over again, (especially the brutal final lockdown of over 100 days that really affected a lot of people's mental health including mine), have especially bitter memories of the Covid era and are probably more prone to want to ensure that any form of travel restriction doesn't happen again.  That's how I'm feeling anyway...could get a cheap EV as a third car and maybe pass it on to the kids when we're done with it.

Just like to add my 2 cents.  I've had a Nissan leaf 2012 for 8 going on 9 years this year. Best car I've ever owned. Yeah range is getting lower now and it's never been a long range car but the savings I made have been huge and maintenance has been tyres and window wipers. That's it. Road users take the bite out a little but still a cheap ride. Plus I added solar to the house with the savings in fuel in 2021 and tined that perfectly when power started it's biggest climbs. New car in a few years or could sell the wife's hybrid and keep the leaf a little longer. I don't use fast chargers unless really urgent as the prices are unjustified especially now at 90cents a kW in some places. I thought 40cebts a kW was expensive but look how far weve come

Interesting, thanks for sharing.  Yeah, charge-net started out at 25 cents a KW/hr, many years ago...going up to 90 cents on 1 April.  Now owned by Genesis.  Hmmm...

Quote from: Scooter on Mar 28, 2026, 05:31 PMJust like to add my 2 cents.  I've had a Nissan leaf 2012 for 8 going on 9 years this year. Best car I've ever owned. Yeah range is getting lower now and it's never been a long range car but the savings I made have been huge and maintenance has been tyres and window wipers. That's it. Road users take the bite out a little but still a cheap ride. Plus I added solar to the house with the savings in fuel in 2021 and tined that perfectly when power started it's biggest climbs. New car in a few years or could sell the wife's hybrid and keep the leaf a little longer. I don't use fast chargers unless really urgent as the prices are unjustified especially now at 90cents a kW in some places. I thought 40cebts a kW was expensive but look how far weve come

good feedback.  the drawback with hybrids is that you have both tech in one - so can have battery issues and engine issues.  still have to get the vehicle serviced and oil changed.   I think you have outlined the costs savings on EVs quite nicely - nice work with the solar installation - are you selling back to the grid?

With Yemen now joining the war this looks like it could get a lot worse before it's going to get better. Dow futures down 900 after 800 drop on Friday. If the Houthis do block off the Red Sea then we are in for some very tuff times indeed.

Quote from: HAWKDOG on Mar 29, 2026, 08:59 AMgood feedback.  the drawback with hybrids is that you have both tech in one - so can have battery issues and engine issues.  still have to get the vehicle serviced and oil changed.   I think you have outlined the costs savings on EVs quite nicely - nice work with the solar installation - are you selling back to the grid?

Thank you.   Yes I'm selling back to the grid.  I'm in a back and forth email exchange with powershop at the moment. Regarding export prices not increasing online with increases a cross the board for power.  In two years the power has increased by up to 10cebts a kW. But they say the solar rebate is market driven.....   

There is no doubt its looking like Share Guy indicates and in the UK the DOOM merchants are writing it up...

NZ wellington they are KIWI's head in the sand of course. Kiwi land will be the last place on earth to realise what is happening globally and wellington wont have prepared for it..

Lucky NZ debt to GDP is not as bad as the UK..

The reserve bank wont know what to do...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/1970s-back-spells-doom-for-your-money/?recomm_id=295f203c-5e5b-4dd3-9a9e-7f6af0417a08

If TRA made money in a recession then left hope they can keep making money then there is NO OIL....

Not likely...

Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 30, 2026, 09:31 AMThere is no doubt its looking like Share Guy indicates and in the UK the DOOM merchants are writing it up...

NZ wellington they are KIWI's head in the sand of course. Kiwi land will be the last place on earth to realise what is happening globally and wellington wont have prepared for it..

Lucky NZ debt to GDP is not as bad as the UK..

The reserve bank wont know what to do...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/1970s-back-spells-doom-for-your-money/?recomm_id=295f203c-5e5b-4dd3-9a9e-7f6af0417a08

If TRA made money in a recession then left hope they can keep making money then there is NO OIL....

Not likely...

I always wonder why everybody is talking about no oil?

Its just 20% which is missing. If Basil reduces his fishing trips and the farmers filled all of their empty barrels with diesel, we are probably doing fine.

During and after WW2 did they use in Germany a lot of machinery and trucks with wood fire (basically running them with CO). Even this works. Aparantly these cars need higher maintenance ... just another opportunity for TRA!

from AI: "Wood-fired cars, using wood gasifiers (Imbert generators), were common in Berlin and across Europe in the immediate post-WWII years (circa 1945–1950) due to severe petrol shortages. These vehicles, often converted commercial trucks or private cars, used charcoal or wood pellets to produce gas, though they offered lower power and required frequent, dirty maintenance. "

$3.59 for diesel is going to make a lot of people use their launches as nothing more than floating immobile inner city apartments...ask me how I know lol

apparently the AUS PM just made a statement about the OIL and Petrol emergency developing ....

they are going to remove or reduce fuel charges ...

now NZ was not going to do that was it?  maybe by tomorrow with a bunch of microphones in the NZ PM's face NZ might do the same..

the US stock market isnt going to just take it in the face from the white house for much longer..

The US stock market isnt going to buy it for much longer...

Its all going to turn to you know what..

The SP is going to be shorted to ...

Westpac Kelly and their team if reckonomists say this is likely - if the Strait is closed for 6 months. Growth falls to near zero, unemployment over 6%, inflation peaks over 7% and house prices fall significantly.

Wow ....the Misery Index will be high

Quote from: Basil on Mar 28, 2026, 02:10 PMPretty sure I am not the only one thinking of buying an electric vehicle. Plenty of reports they're flying off dealers yards and I am sure there is so much demand there will be no point in trying to negotiate the price down. Possible last month profit boost for 2CC and Turners ?

The $64,000 question though is do you join the queue and buy one yourself ?
Overreaction or prudent forward planning ?
I'd love to know people's thoughts.
Not quite sure what to think. Still have very bad memories of Covid lockdown...mild PTSD from that and super keen to ensure a type of enforced lack of mobility doesn't happen again. I guess there's buses and bikes but it's not the same as having your own car. Possibly there's never been a more compelling time than now to own an EV ?  What do you think ?
  Hybrid is a better option, the resale value of an EV is not good.

The rbnz will do what it always does which is to rape savers with their 'look through' approach.

Don't leave your money in new zealand arse paper in a highly corrupted monetary system.

Hopefully members here got their money out into gold and silver years ago.

Just keep the five dollar notes in case loo paper runs out at the supermarket.

In business there's a lot of polite talk and commentary which in this case conceals utter and ruthless theft.

yup - where did we leave those cans... know just where to go to get them filled...

winner said what? what was the inflation figure again? the numbers....

Is anyone thinking clearly... DID SIR B say something about head lights?????

This cant get any worse than the last 5 years can it... Aliens... Mars attack...little green men....

call Men in Black..  they are the last line ... they have got to do something about Trump.. its all there fault...

Now  if any of you are wondering if you should pay your taxes on time and be as honest as you be as if the Good lord is watching your every living moment... and who knows..

Think of where your tax dollars go at Ministry of Business and what ever..

They have a mandatory sing along every day for 30 minutes... Every day...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq2K8ak47nM

Only in GOD's OWN....

I test drove a Zeeker, (Owned by Geely who have owned Volvo since 2010) 7X AWD electric SUV with 640 horsepower this week.  What an absolute beast.  That's saving the planet made extremely interesting !  Acceleration is absolutely brutal, seriously over the top.  Forest green colour is amazing. 
Want to know what it goes like, watch this https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Zeeker+7x+RWD+review&mid=AC4FC3E22B9BFE071C85AC4FC3E22B9BFE071C85&FORM=VIRE

Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 30, 2026, 03:13 PMapparently the AUS PM just made a statement about the OIL and Petrol emergency developing ....

they are going to remove or reduce fuel charges ...

now NZ was not going to do that was it?  maybe by tomorrow with a bunch of microphones in the NZ PM's face NZ might do the same..

the US stock market isnt going to just take it in the face from the white house for much longer..

The US stock market isnt going to buy it for much longer...

Its all going to turn to you know what..

The SP is going to be shorted to ...

So victoriana govt halved public transport plus drops in lorry rucs and fuel tax. Here in auckland we close our electric (renewable) train network for the next 2 weeks.....Just moronic...

The trouble with Nissan Leafs (Leaves?) is that you look like a total dork driving one.

Ok if you're 80 years old and have no game but for the rest of us they're not an option.

Popular with accountants though I believe.

You could save a lot of money by moving to Otara and shopping at the local markets too.

Well, I'm in my 80's and have absolutely no intention of trading my Jag for a Nissan Leaf 😂

Quote from: Recaster on Apr 03, 2026, 08:09 AMThe trouble with Nissan Leafs (Leaves?) is that you look like a total dork driving one.

Ok if you're 80 years old and have no game but for the rest of us they're not an option.

Popular with accountants though I believe.

You could save a lot of money by moving to Otara and shopping at the local markets too.

Well I drive one and I got it in my 30s. Nothing better than being next to a v8 or boy racer and putting my foot down and leaving them behind. These cars have some grunt if you want to drive them.   Yes does use battery up faster though 😂

Quote from: SCOTTY on Apr 03, 2026, 09:33 AMWell, I'm in my 80's and have absolutely no intention of trading my Jag for a Nissan Leaf 😂

Jags used to be cool until the last ad campaign with all the transgenders.


Now they're called Faguars.

There was talk that that advert would bankrupt the company but they're actually an Indian car company now owned and backed by Tata Motors.

Now look the price of oil is going to go up. Please listen if you can the Kanga PM... i know hes hard to understand...

But think a cross between a Taranaki ascent and Bluff... im sure we all have distance family that come from these much loved regions and we can understand these dialects and ascents...

Anyway the AUS PM made it clear to the TRADIES of the nation that he understand that these a trying times...

Most likely there will be darker days ahead...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgJlse93dr8

We all know that for an economy to really bloom all its peoples from all walks of life need to be able to express themselves and reach there potential and while sometimes we may find some things humorous about society one of the things that protects the NZ economy is its bill of right passed by G Palmer...

It could be what bring peoples from all over the world to this country and allows them to participate in society and that could be what keeps the NZ feeble GDP going ... somewhere ..

But for this country to go anywhere all "A PEOPLES" of all genders race and creed are going to need to be accepted.. by all..

Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 03, 2026, 09:11 PMWe all know that for an economy to really bloom all its peoples from all walks of life need to be able to express themselves and reach there potential and while sometimes we may find some things humorous about society one of the things that protects the NZ economy is its bill of right passed by G Palmer...

It could be what bring peoples from all over the world to this country and allows them to participate in society and that could be what keeps the NZ feeble GDP going ... somewhere ..

But for this country to go anywhere all "A PEOPLES" of all genders race and creed are going to need to be excepted.. by all..

Do you always drink and write?

Slightly off topic:

NZ bill of rights as we all know the first UK was this one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_of_Rights_1689

NZ Bill here...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Palmer_(New_Zealand_politician)

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1990/109/en/latest/#DLM224792

"all genders race and creed"

"It is frequently found in:

Recruitment & Job Postings:

Used by organizations like the UNSC Marine Corps RPG or StoryToys to emphasize equal opportunity and a welcoming environment.

Professional Gatherings:

For example, Lloyd's of London has used the phrase to describe the diverse group of insurance professionals who gather for solemn occasions.

Online Communities:

Discussions on platforms like Reddit often use it to describe the diverse makeup of gaming and fan communities."

"Drink and Write"  Iron Man and International single sculling rowing events are best competed in sober...

ASB economists opine on the current state of the economy
https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/asb/documents/reports/economic-weekly/asb-economicweekly_07042026.pdf?et_rid=MzYwNDkwNzg1NDE4S0&et_cid=10150467

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html

Lets hope and pray that the ceasefire holds, that cool heads and common sense prevails and this leads to peace in the Middle East.
Oil down 9% already according to CNBC.

Risk on environment or is the market correctly pricing the risks and rewards ?  What do you guys think ?  (Dow futures up 700+ points at the time of this post).

Quote from: Basil on Apr 08, 2026, 11:12 AMhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html

Lets hope and pray that the ceasefire holds, that cool heads and common sense prevails and this leads to peace in the Middle East.
Oil down 9% already according to CNBC.

Risk on environment or is the market correctly pricing the risks and rewards ?  What do you guys think ?  (Dow futures up 700+ points at the time of this post).

Yes great news. Another TACO. I see stock movements more aligned with where interest rates are heading. Iran to my knowledge has not agreed to the ceasefire yet.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 08, 2026, 11:12 AMhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html

Lets hope and pray that the ceasefire holds, that cool heads and common sense prevails and this leads to peace in the Middle East.
Oil down 9% already according to CNBC.

Risk on environment or is the market correctly pricing the risks and rewards ?  What do you guys think ?  (Dow futures up 700+ points at the time of this post).

Good news, whether they are true will be seen.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news
(sort of paywalled, but I think 10 articles are free ...)

At this stage it sounds, the Iranian army is still attacking (15min ago in Kuwait and 30 min ago in Israel), but hey - internal communication is probably not as good anymore.

Whether it will turn into a real ceasefire and whether it will hold? Impossible to predict. But I guess as long as the RevGuards see that they can keep terrorizing their own people and as long as Trump is praised enough forsaving the peace (cough, coungh), things might normalise.

The other question is - in two weeks it would be 8 weeks of war. Isn't there some rule in the US that at some stage the senate needs to approve the war? But sure, given that Trumps Reps are all spineless, this won't be an isuue, either ...

The fact that Irans 10 point plan is being used as the basis for a settlement rather than Trumps 25 point plan is significant. Iran's plan was dismissed only two days ago as being "maximalist" and therefore unworkable. All of a sudden it's workable.

The plan includes the Straits of Hormuz being under Iran's control and reparations would be paid through a toll system. It included Irans right to continue to enrich Uranium. It included that any peace settlement would have to be a permanent arranged and include Lebanon. And the peace settlement would be binding on Israel who continue to bomb Gaza despite a "ceasefire" supposedly in place.

It would take a massive climbdown from Trump for him to agree to the core of Iran's 10 point plan. Netanyahu too. I can't see that happening so I suspect this will be just a hiatus (maybe not even that) and then a resumption of full hostilities and more of Trumps threats.

Gutless overpaid clown at the rbnz has left rates on hold.

Decided to rape savers some more in the face of high inflation.

Totally consistent with the corrupt country new zealand has become.

She was brought in for this purpose of course.

Shameful.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/usiran-war-ceasefire-live-updates-donald-trump-israel-11775609271954.html
Oil currently down $15 a barrel and Dow Jones futures up ~ 1,000 points.
Markets seem hopeful this ceasefire will lead to peace.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 08, 2026, 02:14 PMhttps://www.livemint.com/news/world/usiran-war-ceasefire-live-updates-donald-trump-israel-11775609271954.html
Oil currently down $15 a barrel and Dow Jones futures up ~ 1,000 points.
Markets seem hopeful this ceasefire will lead to peace.

Certainly hope so, but have my doubts. Israel saying excludes Lebanon won't go down well I would have thought. Can't see the US agreeing to the current 10 point plan. 

Iranians wanting to toll the straight of Hormuz at $3.5m per ship.

Trumps family is making too much coin messing with the price of oil to stop the war. 

A Trump insider opened a $51,000,000 oil short position — hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This guy is now 16 for 16. $170 million in profit. A perfect streak.

The Dow Jones up 1325 points over night. Should be an interesting day 😳

Went to my local bakery to feed my Coffee addiction. In the shop were boxes of pie mix and sacks of flour from floor to ceiling. I said to the owner through a gap "what is going on". She told me she had been informed that there is big price increases coming due to the conflict so they ordered up large. $7 for a pie already and nearly $7 for a Coffee. Need to give up, but I won't...

Reminded me of the horrible Covid times.

I know a place where I swear they make the best potato top pies in the world for $5.80 and their vegie quince's are to die for and are only $5 but tops for value and taste is Pam's brand 100 tea bags at New World for $3.29, that's only 3 cents for a cup of refreshing tea.

Saw diesel at the local Z station asking for $3.99.9 per liter yesterday...the economy is going to get strangled if it stays there for long.  Suppose its better than Hong Kong.  Was just watching CNBC and Honk Kong is one of the very dearest places in the world to buy diesel.  Its the equivalent of US$4.50 per liter, that's $NZ7.75 per liter !

Quote from: Basil on Apr 09, 2026, 05:09 PMI know a place where I swear they make the best potato top pies in the world for $5.80 and their vegie quince's are to die for and are only $5 but tops for value and taste is Pam's brand 100 tea bags at New World for $3.29, that's only 3 cents for a cup of refreshing tea.

Saw diesel at the local Z station asking for $3.99.9 per liter yesterday...the economy is going to get strangled if it stays there for long.  Suppose its better than Hong Kong.  Was just watching CNBC and Honk Kong is one of the very dearest places in the world to buy diesel.  Its the equivalent of US$4.50 per liter, that's $NZ7.75 per liter !

I'm a sucker for a good pie. Love them. I heard the CEO of Z talking about over $4 dollars a litre for diesel is coming. It's certainly going to have major consequences for inflation. As yet we haven't seen many disclosures come through either.  Pacific Islands are really struggling with the prices at the moment. Agree we are a lot better off than many.

The pie, the pinnacle of the culinary ladder - for kiwis.

US markets seem to be taking the strain of geopolitical hostilities in their stride.  Now down only ~ 1% since the war began.  Dow is now positive year to date.  Quite remarkable really.  Hopefully cool heads and common sense prevail with peace negotiations. 

From what I have read/listened to - no oil tankers have made it through the strait - as of yesterday anyway.

Hard to beat a good pie, reasonable cost as well - the last time i went to subway it was $19 for a veggie sub and a drink.
To be honest we have gone from take out once a week to take out every 4-6 weeks.

I guess this stat indicates we are not the only family reducing take out:

Between November 2023 and early 2026, Wellington experienced a significant contraction in its business sector, with a net loss of 1,578 companies.

Hand a chat with an economist the other day and I bought up the subject of the Taylor Rule

With inflation currently say 3.5% and heading 5% plus next year we agreed that the OCR should be about 3.0% soon and 4.5% or even maybe 5.0% next year

How will we cope?

Lucky new RB guv is just as bad as previous ones and this won't happen ...but economy will remain stuffed for years

It is a strange world; s&p 500 up over 1.2% today.

Nasdaq up more than 6% in the last week. US market indicies have all completed a full V shaped recovery since the war began and the VIX is under 19 yet the war isn't over yet, go figure ?

So much money in the system now because of corrupt central banks over the last few decades.

The usual valuation rules don't apply.

One decent bit of news.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/138079/fewer-new-zealand-citizens-are-leaving-long-term-and-more-are-returning-after

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 15, 2026, 08:14 AMHand a chat with an economist the other day and I bought up the subject of the Taylor Rule

With inflation currently say 3.5% and heading 5% plus next year we agreed that the OCR should be about 3.0% soon and 4.5% or even maybe 5.0% next year

How will we cope?

Lucky new RB guv is just as bad as previous ones and this won't happen ...but economy will remain stuffed for years

Ha. Current RB governor is a national appointee and its election year. I think ANZ are over reacting and wrong, just like they were during Covid. Kiwi bank economist I think in time will be proved right.

Government mean spirited not temporarily cutting RUC and fuel excise like Australia has done for everyone ?

Consider this. Their GST take on a liter of diesel was about 20 cents per liter but is now about 50 cents. Seems disingenious to me for them to claim they need to be fiscally responsible implying they can't afford a temporary reduction. I call B.S.

No I don't think so Basil. The last lot gave us all those sugar hits and for what. Short term gain for longer term pain. We need to balance the economy. I'm glad PM has held his ground on this one.

To be crystal clear, I'm not talking about a sugar hit here.  I'm talking about the Govt refunding back their windfall GST gains from the increase in the cost of fuel.  That's fiscally neutral to them and ameliorates some of the extreme pain being felt in the economy.

I don't think the govt are winning to many votes with this move.
The current govt has given big sugar hits to landlords and big tobacco - how about helping out other industries?
Looking at a huge increase in operating costs for diesel intensive industries.

Maybe JD Vance will visit and give Luxon his vote of confidence........

Agree, lack of action is not a vote winner and its election year.  The last thing we want is a coalition of the lunatic left getting back in because voters are disenfranchised with a lack of response from Govt on extreme fuel pain.  I think this has been badly mishandled.  Giving some sections of the economy like working for families a boost is okay but that still leaves the vast majority of drivers out in the cold Antarctic wind of extreme fuel prices.
Either the straight of Hormuz gets opened soon or National gives some fuel relief.  If neither happens there's a real chance this Govt is going to shoot itself in the foot over this.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 15, 2026, 04:34 PMTo be crystal clear, I'm not talking about a sugar hit here.  I'm talking about the Govt refunding back their windfall GST gains from the increase in the cost of fuel.  That's fiscally neutral to them and ameliorates some of the extreme pain being felt in the economy.

Given increased spend on petrol has been sourced from decreased spend elsewhere, wouldn't this be a net negligible impact on GST receipts for the Govt?

a vote winner for a whole bunch of useful electorates and voters in urban areas would be making public transport free for say 3 or 4 months. Quite a low cost, I hear about $80 m for 3 months.
Encourage people to try out modern buses, trains and ferries, and also reduce demand for fuel and deliver real savings to struggling commuters. For many would be the first time using a bus since school no doubt. Not everyone would be able to take this up, but enough to make a difference. I see some Australian states are doing exactly this as a response to the fuel crisis. 
 

Quote from: Ferg on Apr 15, 2026, 05:32 PMGiven increased spend on petrol has been sourced from decreased spend elsewhere, wouldn't this be a net negligible impact on GST receipts for the Govt?

Good question mate, its hard to say ?  Certainly national average rents are down approx $25pwk and most people refixing their mortgages in the last year did so at much lower prevailing interest rates and neither of these cost saving items involves GST so maybe people are simply spending more now on items that include GST ?  Others who are financially comfortable with neither rent or a mortgage to pay and plenty of scope in their finances, i.e. people like me are just spending more and feel slightly miffed the Govt are complicit in diesel being 30 cents per liter higher with the increased GST content than it really needs to be.  I wouldn't change my vote because of it but some people might and the polls, if they are to be believed, are very tight.  I think more pointedly, if fuel remains where it is the likelihood of the economy being tipped into recession is very high and most people have had a complete gutsful of the economy being in recession and some of them will vote for the lunatic left and off we go to the races again with rampant spending on woke nonsense.  I'm pretty sure National are shooting themselves in the foot here.  Fuel is such a visible in your face cost to most people as they grumpily pump it into their vehicle.  Hopefully the straight of Hormuz gets opened again soon and fuel prices will gradually become less problematic.

I will be voting left, there is no im voting for the coalition of chaos.

Winston is 81 years old he needs to retire. tout suite.  should be an age limit.
Seymour is a nutjob.
Luxon is out of his depth, hopeless.

Complete war on the environment.
They are jamming legislation through.
The last consultation we gave on the NES-CF - they gave us 4 days over Easter to reply.
The RMA reform consultation was over christmas season.

they have done zero to help me.  but continue to take away.

Quote from: HAWKDOG on Apr 16, 2026, 07:14 AMI will be voting left, there is no im voting for the coalition of chaos.

Winston is 81 years old he needs to retire. tout suite.  should be an age limit.
Seymour is a nutjob.
Luxon is out of his depth, hopeless.

Complete war on the environment.
They are jamming legislation through.
The last consultation we gave on the NES-CF - they gave us 4 days over Easter to reply.
The RMA reform consultation was over christmas season.

they have done zero to help me.  but continue to take away.

What chaos?

If the left get in then you will find out what chaos is.

Quote from: 777 on Apr 16, 2026, 10:16 AMWhat chaos?

If the left get in then you will find out what chaos is.

Exactly. The leftie likes catchphrases because it removes the need for independent thoughts, the last thing they need the voters exercising. 

If it rhymes it doesn't need to make sense.

Quote from: 777 on Apr 16, 2026, 10:16 AMWhat chaos?

If the left get in then you will find out what chaos is.

I look forward to it.

Recent coalition chaos
- still no ferries - winston admits his boats are 3 years away and more expensive
- shane jones helping his fishing industry friends - walking back eliminating fish size limits
- the school lunch fiasco
- they don't agree on the india free trade deal

the kiwisaver cuts - and increase for employers -
so what happens?  the company i work for still maintains their max contribution level - but instead of going to the company plan - they reduce the contribution amount to the company private plan (which is better) and divert it to kiwisaver.  So no net increase.

14 billion or so in tax cuts to landlords but they can't reduce RUCs for a few months?

This govt has done nothing for me but increase my cost of living.

and there is much dony pedo love among them.

Quote from: HAWKDOG on Apr 17, 2026, 07:28 AMI look forward to it.

Recent coalition chaos
- still no ferries - winston admits his boats are 3 years away and more expensive  At least they will fit the current port structures
- shane jones helping his fishing industry friends - walking back eliminating fish size limits Listened and acted accordingly.
- the school lunch fiasco Another expensive socialist policy created by the Labour Party.Parents should feed there own kids.
- they don't agree on the india free trade deal Neither do Labour and they are all wrong.

the kiwisaver cuts - and increase for employers -
so what happens?  the company i work for still maintains their max contribution level - but instead of going to the company plan - they reduce the contribution amount to the company private plan (which is better) and divert it to kiwisaver.  So no net increase.

14 billion or so in tax cuts to landlords but they can't reduce RUCs for a few months? The landlords had a normal deductable expense reinstated after Labour removed it.Puts renting back in line with all business's.

If your company private plan is better then why don't you take a kiwisaver holiday and put all contributions into it. If you still want the $250 Govt contribution then just deposit the $1020 in kiwisaver each June.


This govt has done nothing for me but increase my cost of living.Less than what it was and better than a lot countries. [/color]

and there is much dony pedo love among them. That must be Leftist speak as I don't know what you are saying.

lol this won't end well.  I will agree to disagree and move on.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 15, 2026, 09:55 AMNasdaq up more than 6% in the last week. US market indicies have all completed a full V shaped recovery since the war began and the VIX is under 19 yet the war isn't over yet, go figure ?

Just wondered, how stockmarket behaved during the roaring 20ies (well, this was the 1920íes):

Interesting AI summary about the 1920íes:

QuoteKey Trends and Dynamics of the 1920s Market
Unprecedented Growth: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose from around 63 in August 1921 to a peak of roughly 381 in September 1929 - only to drop afterwards to nearly 41 (July 1932).
Retail Participation and Speculation: For the first time, large numbers of ordinary Americans invested in the stock market, often driven by the desire for quick wealth.
Buying on Margin (Leverage): The boom was heavily fueled by credit. Investors could purchase stocks by paying as little as 10% of the value in cash and borrowing the remaining 90%.
"New Era" Mentality: Investors widely believed that technological advances had created a "new era" of endless prosperity, leading them to disregard traditional valuation metrics.
Industrial Drivers: Companies in new sectors like automobiles (GM) and radio (RCA) saw massive growth in stock price and, in many cases, revenue.

Some of these things sound quite similar today.

retail participation:
 - Many new investors and many new index funds providing money without really assessing the companies.

the new era mentality:
 - plenty of worth less but highly rated crypto securities
 - many economies so highly leveraged that any decent rise in interest will bankrupt them

industrial drivers:
 - AI being the new technology which will fix everything

Not sure I expect the next really black Friday this or next week (though, never trust Donald), but otherwise - we probably shouldn't be too surprised if it happens over the next couple of years. Markets clearly have no clue about the future ... and if they rise, this just means there is more space for them to drop back ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-mayor-tells-truckies-to-drive-at-night-to-save-on-fuel/CZ6DCK25Q5HYVEJI4HU532OBMM/

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

Quote from: HAWKDOG on Apr 18, 2026, 02:01 PMhttps://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

As of mid-April 2026, the Warren Buffett Indicator (total market cap to GDP) is at an all-time high, exceeding 220% and signalling extreme overvaluation. This level is roughly 77% above its long-term trend line and indicates a high risk of significant market correction, with historical precedents such as the 2000 dot-com bubble and 2021 peak being lower than current levels.

Latest 1News Verian poll says National would be out and Labour in with 66 seats. National have read the room incorrectly on fuel price support and haven't done enough.

Kiwi's care about the extraordinary cost of living now and would be quite happy to see fuel excise and road user charges halved for a while. Funding for roads can be fixed later when fuel costs normalize.

You'd think something this simple would be readily apparent to National party leadership. Go figure ?

The last thing I want is a coalition of the lunatic left but that's looking increasingly likely.

Reducing exercise tax on fuel would be easy but since RUC's are paid in advance how would you reduce those in such a way that cash in the pocket is now and not in the future?

Another option that would help city folk is reducing the cost of public transit:

"The New Zealand government has significantly reduced public transport subsidies, leading to a rise in fares for many, effective 1 May 2024, reversing previous temporary reductions. While blanket half-price fares for the general public ended earlier, the current government has ended the specific "Community Connect" subsidies for youth and children, causing fares for these groups to rise, while maintaining targeted support for specific groups.

Key Changes and Current Status (As of May 2024 - April 2026):
End of Youth/Child Subsidies: The nationwide free fares for children under 13 and half-price fares for people aged 24 and under ended on 1 May 2024.

Fare Increases: Consequently, many commuters, particularly those aged 13-24, are experiencing higher costs, with some reports showing fares doubling in areas like Auckland and Wellington.

Targeted Concessions: The "Community Connect" program continues to offer half-price fares for Community Services Card holders and Total Mobility cardholders.

Regional Variations: Some local councils have chosen to continue funding cheaper fares for certain groups, such as free weekend travel for children in some areas.

Current Fare Reviews (2026): Public transport fares continue to see upward pressure. For instance, Auckland Transport increased fares by an average of 5.1% in February 2026.

Contextual Information:

Background: The government implemented half-price fares in April 2022 to combat high fuel prices, which were later extended and refined into the Community Connect program before being scaled back.

Ongoing Advocacy: There are ongoing calls from groups like the Green Party and local leaders, particularly amid a 2026 fuel crisis, for the government to re-introduce free or cheaper public transport to reduce the cost of living and reduce transport emissions."

Quote from: 777 on Apr 20, 2026, 08:54 AMReducing exercise tax on fuel would be easy but since RUC's are paid in advance how would you reduce those in such a way that cash in the pocket is now and not in the future?

Good question 777.  My wife buys RUC for her diesel vehicle 10,000 km at a time but that's quite possibly not especially typical and some consumers may be buying it in one or two thousand kilometer increments. There's no perfect solution but doing something is better than doing nothing don't you agree ?

Quote from: Basil on Apr 20, 2026, 08:35 AMLatest 1News Verian poll says National would be out and Labour in with 66 seats. National have read the room incorrectly on fuel price support and haven't done enough.

Kiwi's care about the extraordinary cost of living now and would be quite happy to see fuel excise and road user charges halved for a while. Funding for roads can be fixed later when fuel costs normalize.

You'd think something this simple would be readily apparent to National party leadership. Go figure ?

The last thing I want is a coalition of the lunatic left but that's looking increasingly likely.

I lean the same way Basil, however, unfortunately Luxon doesn't seem to have a clue.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/138140/keith-woodford-says-stagflation-reality-hard-decisions-needed-now

Quote from: Basil on Apr 20, 2026, 10:55 AMhttps://www.interest.co.nz/economy/138140/keith-woodford-says-stagflation-reality-hard-decisions-needed-now

agree with Woodford that OCR should be 3% NOW and 4.5% later in year

But tax cuts now so punters can have more spend is a dumb idea. Punters must learn to live within their means .... too much wasteful spending goes on

We must get that MISERY INDEX up

The misery index is going to spike if the Iran narrative shifts from diplomacy winning to the reality of an oil shock reality.  See what TACO shows up today.

https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/asb/documents/reports/economic-weekly/asb-economicweekly_20042026.pdf?et_rid=MzYwNDkwNzg1NDE4S0&et_cid=10166766

Throw a dart, its anyone's guess what happens next.

Good article

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/heres-what-the-stock-market-might-have-gotten-wrong-about-the-iran-war/premium/SU266TT66JAJ5C4BGI4VNX2TBE/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/new-zealand-firms-gloomy-as-iran-war-hits-costs-profitability?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

FTA with India good for the economy I hear

Always find this chart intriguing

Screenshot 2026-04-24 144724.png

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 24, 2026, 02:53 PMFTA with India good for the economy I hear

Always find this chart intriguing

Screenshot 2026-04-24 144724.png

Thats not a good graph.

Kiwi retailers are bracing for a "significant and sustained downturn" as the Middle East conflict fuels greater pessimism in the sector, new data show.

Higher fuel costs over March have added to inflationary pressures, squeezing retailers' margins and consumers' budgets.

Retail NZ's quarterly Retail Radar report, covering the first three months of the year, revealed 66% of respondents believe they will not meet their sales targets in the June quarter, the highest level recorded since the second quarter of 2024.

Almost a third of respondents (29%) said the survival of their business in the next 12 months "could go either way" – the highest in more than two years.

To combat rising fuel costs, more than half (53%) of retailers said they plan to put their prices up.

In this morning's The Press was a list of Lincoln University graduates.
Worrying [to me] is the lack of NZ names in the list.
I guess over 95% of graduates are not New Zealanders.
Would appear to me they are either Chinese or Indian

Think you might find a lot of those with chinese or Indian names are actually New Zealanders.

Quote from: Swala on May 08, 2026, 10:42 AMThink you might find a lot of those with chinese or Indian names are actually New Zealanders.

Agree.

What exactly would be a New Zealand surname anyway? We (or our forebears) come from different parts of the world - and so far there is no rule that people have to change their family name to become New Zealanders. Every name could be New Zealand.

Given the population growth it looks like in 20 years there will be more Kiwis around with Asian background rather than European. We better get used to accept Asian, Australian, African and American names as NZ as well.