This is worth reading in my opinion
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/22/the-painful-reality-of-economic-contraction/1
And Cameron Bagrie says Q3 will offset Q2 and then the economy is on a roll.
This bit so true - The funny thing about a downturn is that it drives productivity growth. The good take over the bad. Sometimes you need a good clean to get rid of rubbish.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/gdp-figures-welcome-to-the-l-shaped-recovery
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 23, 2025, 08:58 AMAnd Cameron Bagrie says Q3 will offset Q2 and then the economy is on a roll.
This bit so true - The funny thing about a downturn is that it drives productivity growth. The good take over the bad. Sometimes you need a good clean to get rid of rubbish.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/gdp-figures-welcome-to-the-l-shaped-recovery
Yes lets forget about 2025. Its all going to happen next year or so we are told.........
My view is:
The cleanout of the economy from all of the excess and unproductive covid spending will not happen in just one business cycle, it will take two. Therefore I believe it is likely that we will have another cycle, similar but less deep, that we are going through now. I believe this is why some commentators depict the RBNZ has been slow to lower OCR rates, the RBNZ know full well the situation we find ourselves in and are trying to wash out as much of the loose fiscal policy moves as possible. Alas political realities will prevail and another boom and bust cycle will eventuate.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/135321/country-needs-reserve-banks-foot-firmly-accelerator-wake-last-weeks-shock-gdp-plunge
AI - generated report on the RBNZ and NZ economy..
RBNZ Statistical Failures Economic Data Accuracy Assessment.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 23, 2025, 08:58 AMThis bit so true - The funny thing about a downturn is that it drives productivity growth. The good take over the bad. Sometimes you need a good clean to get rid of rubbish.
Unless the good simply leave the country. Which is what is happening. People tend to think that the only people leaving NZ are the unemployed desperately looking for work. But its not - its highly skilled people who are leaving for much better pay, conditions and future opportunities. Doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers, tradespeople, tech workers, entrepreneurs, small business owners, police officers. All the "productive" people. NZ gets the unemployed and unemployable back after they fail to make it in Australia (or are deported).
Who is left to take over the "bad" - who is stepping up to replace the shut down saw mills, fish processors, and fruit canners? We will import foreign made products now, sending more of what little money we have overseas. NZ doesnt win from this.
Are we really better off now that we no longer have chocolate fish, jaffas and snifters?
Quote from: KW on Sep 24, 2025, 10:57 AMUnless the good simply leave the country. Which is what is happening. People tend to think that the only people leaving NZ are the unemployed desperately looking for work. But its not - its highly skilled people who are leaving for much better pay, conditions and future opportunities. Doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers, tradespeople, tech workers, entrepreneurs, small business owners, police officers. All the "productive" people. NZ gets the unemployed and unemployable back after they fail to make it in Australia (or are deported).
Who is left to take over the "bad" - who is stepping up to replace the shut down saw mills, fish processors, and fruit canners? We will import foreign made products now, sending more of what little money we have overseas. NZ doesnt win from this.
Totally agree. NZ has been in the lower third of OECD productivity tables for decades, due mainly to chronic underinvestment in technology, infrastructure and its inability to hang on to its most ambitious and qualified citizens. We have used immigration and the fools gold of rising house prices to kid ourselves that our economy has been booming, when in fact it never has. Strip the effects of those two things out of the equation and we have in fact been stagnating or going backwards in real terms for a long, long time.
Now that immigration is slowing and house prices stagnating everyone can now see that the emperor isn't wearing any clothes. Unfortunately we have a Government that thinks austerity politics is the answer and a PM that more and more looks and behaves like a possum caught between car headlights.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Sep 24, 2025, 11:16 AMTotally agree. NZ has been in the lower third of OECD productivity tables for decades, due mainly to chronic underinvestment in technology, infrastructure and its inability to hang on to its most ambitious and qualified citizens. We have used immigration and the fools gold of rising house prices to kid ourselves that our economy has been booming, when in fact it never has. Strip the effects of those two things out of the equation and we have in fact been stagnating or going backwards in real terms for a long, long time.
Now that immigration is slowing and house prices stagnating everyone can now see that the emperor isn't wearing any clothes. Unfortunately we have a Government that thinks austerity politics is the answer and a PM that more and more looks and behaves like a possum caught between car headlights.
Yep that's the truth of it. I don't like the alternative though.
Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 24, 2025, 11:49 AMYep that's the truth of it. I don't like the alternative though.
You're right there. Seems like the choice is between Labours lolly scramble and Nationals austerity. NZ is what happens when ideology takes over from sound economic thinking. There's a lot of that going around in the world at the moment...
Is National really about austerity? Or just cutting off benefits to the average person to pay for other things?
"This new Defence Capability Plan contains $12 billion of funding over the next four years, which includes $9 billion of new spending. This will raise New Zealand's defence spending from just over one per cent of GDP to more than two per cent in the next eight years."
I am not for or against military spending but its seems like a move to appease President Pedo.
According to this article National is borrowing more than Labour did?
https://mountaintui.substack.com/p/nicola-williss-debt-already-higher?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
Current & planned debt will surpass Labour's full term debt in less years. Willis also admitted Budget 2024 had a higher deficit than all of Grant Robertson's bar Covid.
There's a lot of sleight of hand with this Government over planned and actual expenditure. Lot's of infrastructure projects were allocated budget but were put on the back burner and no money actually spent. Just ask Mark Malpass, Steel and Tube CEO.
This Government dug a hole for itself delivering tax cuts that weren't fully funded. That is one of the reasons why total debt under national is now higher than it was under Labour and forecasted to rise further. For example, it is estimated that the government's reversal of Labours Bright-Line test rules and tax on mortgage interest for investment properties, cost them 2.9 billion dollars in lost revenue. That's a lot of money to go back into the pockets of investment property owners that could have been used much more productively elsewhere.
Excellent points.
I hope they take action on equity investing to align it with property investing.
There's a lot of talk about people not saving money for retirement, but not much is done to encourage it.
A person pays tax on their pay cheque, saves some of that in the bank, and gets taxed again on the interest.
I can see why property is the go-to in NZ.
Canada, for example, has a tax-free savings account - you can deposit up to $ 5,500 in the account annually and invest it tax-free, then withdraw it tax-free. That's on top of the RRSP program, where you get tax back up to a certain amount depending on how much you contribute.
There you have it folks.. it the US doesnt invade Canada and you can find a small hunting and fishing hut which does not freeze over for more than 6 months a year... well thats your RV , retirement villa...
you cant beat that scheme... its a wonder the top dogs in the US arnt fleeing to the Canack border in droves..
Salmon fishing anyone...watch out for the bears...
Plenty of bears here too. People will feel a bit better after a couple of 50 bps interest rate cuts.
RBNZ is so far behind with policy its ludicrous.
Gosh 50's !!!! That could move the comp props.. ARG first shot up to 1.20 before a big pull back and now we are back to 1.20 ... could these stocks go to 1.40 over the next 12 months?
Now that would be startling - on wonders if the RBNZ is now running advanced models on an AI platform.
After all they have the staff to do it but do they have the data?
Could ARG go to $1.40 over the next 12 months?
A. Yes!
is the economy being held back by a group in society who have created a city sky line of sky scrappers with paper alone? Has NZ actually shoot itself in the foot as hard working businesses been sold down the drain by a class of intellectuals that created the ultimate committee based society?
This from the Tax Payer union letter today..."New Zealand has 81 ministerial portfolios, 28 ministers, and 43 departments. That's three times as many portfolios and nearly twice as many departments as comparable countries."
If you had too much,(or worst still, all) of your investable capital in local assets you did yourself a Disservice this year says Mark Lister.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/business/nz-economy-in-deep-per-capita-recession-as-investor-confidence-slumps/XWKJRNNUYFFLZIU7SQBG5FAJP4/
Im sure many investors on this forum took heed of the information and hold stock that are dual listed or have heavy exposure to other markets including Australia...
As far as AI goes it has a long way to go before it can understand language and AI is not robotics as AI will tell you. AI does not go by the laws of robotics and is basically not going to make NZ productive for the masses in its present state. Yes this last week AI added over 150 functions to the binding machine.. something that would maybe have cost a large number of man hours of programming. In certain industries AI will have an impact but it wont do the outdoor stuff that actually runs the country.
Sure it will help automation on the tractor and help you perhaps spray those orchards but it appears the wealthier NZ became the more money it spent on committees...
It can process documents and some stats and maybe it can replace the RBNZ..and replace some of those extra departments only NZ has...
Its as if NZ was a labour party socialist experiment... and clearly it failed...
Just how out of control was the RBNZ during this mans destructive tenor and was the whole COVID response to the shutdowns the biggest economic failure in New Zealand monetary policy history?
It could all have been handle maybe by the implementation of an Tax Account for covid payments at the Tax departments but because such a payments system did not exists for the country wide force majeure money was just poured out onto the streets resulting in the DOOM and BUST cycle right up there with all the major collapses in the economy since the second world war..
The Tax Computer software systems could not cope with recording the payments and therefore wellington and the government just went into panic mode.. and printed truck loads of money...
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/rbnz_board_416k_for_adrian_orr
A restraint of TRADE payment? Just how corrupt is wellington!!!!!
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 07, 2025, 09:52 AMJust how out of control was the RBNZ during this mans destructive tenor and was the whole COVID response to the shutdowns the biggest economic failure in New Zealand monetary policy history?
It could all have been handle maybe by the implementation of an Tax Account for covid payments at the Tax departments but because such a payments system did not exists for the country wide force majeure money was just poured out onto the streets resulting in the DOOM and BUST cycle right up there with all the major collapses in the economy since the second world war..
The Tax Computer software systems could not cope with recording the payments and therefore wellington and the government just went into panic mode.. and printed truck loads of money...
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/rbnz_board_416k_for_adrian_orr
A restraint of TRADE payment? Just how corrupt is wellington!!!!!
Hmm - I'd suspect that this was just part of his contract? No matter, whether he "deserves the payment" (looking backwards) - pacts need to be serviced.
So, what exactly should the board have done? If there are issues, than they are with the people who offered him the contract nearly a decade ago.
how on earth is a country to get ahead where the farmers out in the high country on horse back do the MAHI and these clowns just raid the piggy bank....
From the Tax Payer Union offices.
BREAKING: Former Reserve Bank Governor under gag clause as part of $416,000 golden handshake
and before we get into the newsletter proper, we've just had land on our desk a copy of the agreement signed between former Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr and the Reserve Bank.
On Monday we learned Orr has been paid a $416,120 'golden goodbye' on top of his $766,180 salary as part of what the Bank and Minister of Finance described as a "restraint of trade".
But taxpayers (and the media) smelled a rat. When have you ever heard of a restraint of trade applying to a civil servant? As we said at time time:
"Heads should roll over this – it's a $416,120 reward for failure,"
"Just what were they worried about? Orr is so disgraced that the only Reserve Bank he could take over is in the third world. Heck, we should have been paying others to take him away!"
"Similarly, the idea a commercial bank would touch Orr is ridiculous. It was the commercial banks quietly telling people about Orr's outrageous behaviour in yelling at executives."
"I have never heard of a 'restraint of trade' in the public service. It's a golden parachute."
The idea the payment was about keeping confidences was also ridiculous: all Reserve Bank staff are already covered by a comprehensive non-disclosure agreement applicable to commercially sensitive information.
An hour ago, thanks to our friends at Newsroom.co.nz, we have a copy of the full agreement, and our suspicions were proved correct.
It isn't a 'restraint of trade' at all. It's a gag agreement!
And it isn't about prohibiting Orr from disclosing secrets, it's literally about prohibiting Orr from criticising the Reserve Bank, the Government, and even the Minister of Finance!
You can read the document for yourself here.
Here is the statement I've just issued to the media. It speaks for itself:
MEDIA RELEASE
The Taxpayers' Union is slamming the news that disgraced former Reserve Bank Governor, Adrian Orr, is subject to a gagging clause applicable to not just the Bank, but the Government and Minister of Finance. Taxpayers' Union spokesman, Jordan Williams, said:
"The document obtained by Newsroom and shared with the Taxpayers' Union demonstrates how false the claims about the $416,000 so-called 'restraint of trade' really are. This is a classic gag agreement - designed to protect the reputations of the elite and shun public scrutiny."
"Taxpayers' money should be not be used to buy the silence of a disgraced former public servant. Nor should someone who, apparently, resigned be given a 'golden goodbye' for agreeing to keep their mouth shut."
"Unless the Reserve Bank - and the Minister - waive the requirements on Mr Orr not to speak, it makes a mockery of public assurances of transparency."
The Reserve Bank is one of New Zealand's most important public institutions. It's snubs to transparency, accountability, and focusing on keeping inflation low have cost New Zealand dearly.
Port Traffic Report New Zealand By AI.
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/5b49d649-4828-4715-a4e1-398b84c472a8
AI report NZX stock for the 2026 recovery (if its happens).
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/0678324a-0c81-48b8-883a-9e9d94758d9e
This has some junkie stuff recommends (AIR) for Tourism... right well its prior report on AIR was ... not so great...
Thought winston did a reasonable interview recently where he did not sound like he was ready for the RV yet...
Here is again going into bat... did he look up the figures and facts or does he have a memory that is endless...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-hits-back-after-winston-peters-questions-42b-mainland-sale-plan/ZIWWOXINU5D5NDHUGRPVZBRPNI/
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 07, 2025, 09:52 AMA restraint of TRADE payment? Just how corrupt is wellington!!!!!
Extremely. Each Party appoints their mates into high places, overpays them, dishes out taxpayer money like its lollies at a Christmas party. Unlike the private sector, there are no checks and balances on executive pay and contracts. There should be an independent non-Govt entity that has to approve public sector remuneration contracts, like a company Board.
And what kind of banana republic puts gag orders on public servants? Govt should be open and transparent. How else is it to be held accountable? How else is history to be documented? How else do we analyse what went wrong, and why, and make plans so that we don't do it again? Its like the Covid enquiry, everyone in possession of the information refused to testify because they just want to bury the past and pretend it never happened. Which pretty much guarantees that it will happen again, only next time will be worse.
I work part time in a nation wide retail company, trading has been very tuff.
With a newish CEO in place I always new things would be shaken up a bit.
However what I learned is how mischievous one years books can be manipulated late in the trading year to make a company perform better on paper.
Example massive orders went out, in the last couple of months of the financial year, to 3 of our largest suppliers to insure rebates were secured.
I know for our store we are now sitting on up to 6 months worth of stock on these items.
Also adjustments upwards to the holding value of 2 of our major in stock lines were made.
Certainly has been an eye opener on how corporates can smudge things prior to year end
AI did suggest that the NZ export sector was the positive one with shipping data up...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/agribusiness/apple-grower-scales-upgrades-forecasts-despite-uncertainties/KCJZKN3FXJG6NOH2JZFCLZMU2E/
OK QE - does not cause inflation... those of you who believed the US FED back in 2020-2022 that inflation was temp - will be happy to know that your investing theory you banked on that 2020 would be like 2008 are going to be happy...
and the reserve bank is BACKING you up!!! Thats right money printing did not cause inflation to spike...
NOTHING TO SEE HERE!!!! MOVE ON PLEASE... and take your medicine .... drink up!!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/interest-rates/reserve-bank-money-printing-didnt-cause-inflation-to-soar-11-billion-cost-to-the-crown-was-offset-by-benefits/HCDSHMJVQNGCTKCV6IKWUY3RUM/
TAKE THAT !!! you economic ignorant investors !!! - NO and house prices did not spike on zero interest rates!!!
NO THOSE GRAPHS of CV are all FAKE!!! They are AI generated FAKE charts from North K!!, China and the KGB!!!
Some AI work on Golden Tri Angle cities and smaller conurbation's..
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/da63d669-23a2-4cf7-b573-9c6a09bbb73f
More AI Stuff - 4 councils...
Auckland to the Mount..
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/e3748a01-9445-4221-9015-37521cddb20f