Impressive Performance in the rv/care sector
.https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449811
With dividends well done Brian @ Radius
Radius holders will be happy with this upgrade
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/456350
Its really amazing how Radius care can do so well with care and yet the other listed company in this area does so poorly.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 07, 2025, 12:15 PMIts really amazing how Radius care can do so well with care and yet the other listed company in this area does so poorly.
Yeah I wonder why this is, I must look into it when I have time.
Windhaven Care Holiding partially sold down.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcem...418-449050.pdf
Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 07, 2025, 01:11 PMYeah I wonder why this is, I must look into it when I have time.
From what I can see, they don't seem to have the big flashy stuff like the other larger RV companies meaning their internal costs are lighter.
The fact that the 4% govt increase has increased their profits sort of suggest there costs are well controlled. Do they build any facilities?
Good on the for staying within their niche, you can see them becoming more of a player with the RV companies like RYM reducing the Govt funded residents that do not pay the equvilent as the RYM residents do.
For Bars Review
Radius Residential Care (RAD) provided an upbeat trading update at its ASM, with 1H26 underlying EBITDA now expected to be between NZ$14m and NZ$16m versus prior guidance of NZ$12m to NZ$15m. The midpoint of updated guidance is +41% above 1H25. The key driver of the upgrade continues to be rising occupancy, which has improved to 94.8% in the first four months of FY26, maintaining its upwards trend. Given RAD's large fixed cost base, incremental improvements in occupancy are delivering meaningful operating leverage. A mix benefit from more higher-acuity residents, and solid village resales are also contributing. RAD continues to prove out its operating model and remains well positioned to grow earnings organically and through a blend of owned and capital-light leased acquisitions. We make small changes to our near-term earnings estimates and lift our sustainable long-term growth rate in EBITDAR per bed by +0.5% p.a. to reflect solid execution. Our target price rises by +7% to NZ$0.48.
What's changed?
Earnings: Underlying EBITDA rises +2% over FY26, FY27, and FY28 and we lift our long-term earnings growth rate marginally.
Spot valuation: Our spot valuation rises +3 cps to NZ$0.48.
Occupancy uplift continues to drive leverage
RAD's key occupancy metric has continued its upward trajectory, averaging 94.8% year to date and reaching 95.2% in July. This is comfortably ahead of the 92.8% achieved in FY25 and marginally above our prior 94.4% FY26 forecast. The uplift is flowing through to strong EBITDA gains, given RAD's largely fixed cost structure. With high-acuity demand, consistent four-year audit accreditations, and constrained sector capacity, RAD is well positioned to sustain these higher occupancy levels. That said, the scope for further uplift is narrowing as RAD approaches our estimate of maximum sustainable occupancy at ~96%.
1H26 guidance upgraded, forecasts lifted
RAD now expects 1H26 underlying EBITDA to land between NZ$14m and NZ$16m, up from the NZ$12m to NZ$15m range provided in June 2025. At the midpoint, guidance is now ~+NZ$5m or +41% ahead of 1H25 driven by solid operational leverage. In response, we lift our FY26–FY28 underlying EBITDA forecasts by +2%, which already incorporates the +4% government funding increase effective from 1 July 2025. We also incorporate a higher level of sustainable long term earnings growth on a per bed basis, reflecting our growing confidence in RAD's operating model.
Ryman's (RYM) pending closure of two Christchurch care facilities may reignite funding debate
RYM will close two old Christchurch care facilities (95 beds in aggregate), relocating residents to other RYM facilities. The closures further reduce the availability of care beds and reflect the trend of operators exiting smaller or older sites. This trend is placing upward pressure on occupancy in the private sector and highlights the sector's funding constraints.
Earnings revisions
We lift our FY26 occupancy assumption from 94.4% to 95.0%, with modest upward adjustments also made to FY27 and FY28. Our FY27 occupancy of 95.2% is consistent with occupancy observed in July 2025. Given RAD's largely fixed cost base, incremental gains continue to translate into meaningful operating leverage. As a result, we upgrade our underlying EBITDA estimates by +2% over FY26/FY27/FY28. We also marginally raise our long-term EBITDA per bed growth rate assumption, reflecting growing confidence in RAD's operational execution.
Starting to wonder if I caught a falling knife here. Seems like a pretty undemanding valuation, rough calculation I did recently suggests if ebitda to npat ratio is maintained the new guidance is around 10 mill npat annualized. I reckon the low end of aged care is where the real grey tide is going to be, watching that occupancy.....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/470273
Expansion continues ,great acquisition at a good price Ideally suited for their core business
Some reasonable interest in RAD over the last few days. I managed to accumulate a few at 38c a week or so ago. Seems cheap on current metrics and still growing.
Quote from: Dolcile on Apr 17, 2026, 04:07 PMSome reasonable interest in RAD over the last few days. I managed to accumulate a few at 38c a week or so ago. Seems cheap on current metrics and still growing.
They are one of the few R V s that are profitable& paying a div.
I do like the fact the founder is in control & a major shareholder it does show .
The rv business models of larger companies are differently focused & failing.
Good to see this one rising despite the others struggling pretty bad. I reckon they are the best operator you can buy when it comes to day to day village profit, not really a development play even though they dabble. So far I'm glad I doubled down the other week, all eyes on the guidance for FY27 to hopefully get some PE multiple expansion going and we will be winning big. Anecdotally I've heard there is a bit of a glut of nurses at the moment, not sure about care staff, should help a bit avoiding the crazy wage inflation we saw with OCA during the shortage.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/radius-residential-care-launches-own-brand-care-products-pacific-edge-could-need-cash-blackpearl-and-more?fbclid=IwY2xjawRPukdleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFjQlNMRm5JaXM3MWsyYVpQc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHhohSp6jaWGdEhpMVp3YDMn-G30Y1RtRY-6G6oxYnr44zELky9D7gYiN46jW_aem_0wWbT7J_pVMGysrRmd25bA
Diversification is the name of the game ,seems to be a good business strategy
At first glance this looks like a decent result. More growth to come and a nice 8% gross dividend yield as well wait. Unlike others in the sector the dividend is fully imputed which is nice.
Quote from: Dolcile on May 13, 2026, 08:51 AMAt first glance this looks like a decent result. More growth to come and a nice 8% gross dividend yield as well wait. Unlike others in the sector the dividend is fully imputed which is nice.
Absolutely right docile,they just keep heading onwards & upwards .
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/472508
How is it that they can earn $31K EBITDA per care bed and all the other retirement companies are bleating like lambs lost from their mothers that the Govt is not paying enough and their lackluster return its someone else's fault ? All the others with their care looks like fools compared to RAD.
Quote from: Basil on May 13, 2026, 03:51 PMHow is it that they can earn $31K EBITDA per care bed and all the other retirement companies are bleating like lambs lost from their mothers that the Govt is not paying enough and their lackluster return its someone else's fault ? All the others with their care looks like fools compared to RAD.
Because they bullshit their earnings.
EBITDAR
Quote from: Basil on May 13, 2026, 03:51 PMHow is it that they can earn $31K EBITDA per care bed and all the other retirement companies are bleating like lambs lost from their mothers that the Govt is not paying enough and their lackluster return its someone else's fault ? All the others with their care looks like fools compared to RAD.
Yea, very much an outlier, as well none of the others are paying an imputed dividend. RAD pays and even increased their dividend AND bought some of their own share back. No cash flow problems with this company, very refreshing.
Quote from: ValueNZ on May 13, 2026, 04:03 PMBecause they bullshit their earnings.
EBITDAR
ValueNZ, could you explain more? I must be missing something.
Must be making decent money because they are paying tax (unlike SUM, RYM etc) and therefore able to paying increasing fully imputed dividends
But Value I'm very curious to read your views?
Second half not as good. But yes a good result. They lease most of their building which may explain some of the difference in the care bed revenue?
Quote from: Basil on May 13, 2026, 03:51 PMHow is it that they can earn $31K EBITDA per care bed and all the other retirement companies are bleating like lambs lost from their mothers that the Govt is not paying enough and their lackluster return its someone else's fault ? All the others with their care looks like fools compared to RAD.
Might it have something to do with targeting the much higher acquity care strategy and the corresponding much higher government funding per bed. Makes sense for an RV that has relatively low owned assets and runs a profitable niche care model, with higher turnover as well.
There is very little that is comparable though to the other listed RV's, their business models are quite different.
Pretty steady as she goes result really. H1 vs H2:
revenue $100 vs $102 mill (+2%)
expenses $93 vs $98 (+5%) - employee costs $59 vs $64 (+8%), depreciation/amortisation $5.7 vs $7.5 key contributors
The employee costs seem strong however may be due to recent growth not making it to revenue line yet as EBITDAR per bed still rose half to half and this is "adjusted" to account for the growth. An element of trust there to keep it clean.
They booked a $1.4 million depreciation charge on WIP care assets by the look of it too, which didnt exist in H1 and accounts for alot of the discrepency between halves. I'm wondering if they are just immediately depreciating some of the capex spend to refurb the recent acquisitions using those new accelerated depreciation rules? Occupancy is basically almost as high as you can get it now so any growth from H1 onwards is what should dicate the growth price premium. I had hoped H2 would be similar to H1 at the NPAT level, still good value at current price but not motivated to add at this point.
After a deeper review of the annual report I decided to sell down my shares today. Mainly because when you strip out the fair value adjustments the second half profit before tax ($4.3m) is down some 38% compared to the first half profit before tax ($6.9m).
Big buys this morning ,the continually Improving dividends appealing for some.
Including me ;D
https://www.nzx.com/services
Getting more like its true value at the moment ,& a good dividend stock