In your opinion
RF1 on the ASX, miniature version of black rock, short and long stock traders and royalties deals
Quote from: Playa on Jan 15, 2025, 09:45 AMIn your opinion
While there are certainly companies with various levels of risk and earnings potential, and while I try to avoid the companies with high risk and low earnings potential, I don't think that there are any must have companies.
Remember - there are plenty of ways to skin a cat, and there are as well plenty of ways to make a good coin with holding the right companies at the right time.
hind sight is a wonderful thing... staples ...things people have to buy...
Food & ports - but at the right price.
companies producing this stuff are funded by deep pools a bit like space x...
in the end these giant pools of money and where it comes from may be untraceable but it where the future is being created..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efebwb2DW3w
since the average investor cant invest in these its either eggs or junkie AI..
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 15, 2025, 02:54 PMhind sight is a wonderful thing... staples ...things people have to buy...
I see basic transport, (affordable vehicles), as a staple. Although in theory there is a product substitute, (public transport), when we've had huge oil shocks before the fuel volumes sold have only fallen 2%. Besides that, everyone I know dislikes public transport apart from the Ferries. You see this played out in the last 5 years when despite Covid and the longest and deepest recession since the GFC, Turners have gone from one record result to another.
People need clothes too and HLG are the oldest listed company on the NZX.
Perhaps what is a 'must have' in one's portfolio depends on one's investment priorities ( eg one's preference for dividend yield or preference for tax free capital gains,) plus ones' risk tolerance and one's view of the world and NZ's economic situation.
However, given the NZ$ at new lows compared to the US$ (and this likely to remain so for at least 2025, (depending on Trump's economic success or failures,) then I suspect NZ companies that earn a significant part of their income in $USD will out-perform in 2025.
IFT, GTK and FPH look 'well positioned' and relatively low risk with the current USD strength in mind (but perhaps less so if you are purchasing at today's SP, rather than having acquired slowly and steadily at lower share prices over the last few years.)
JMHO. DYOR.
Low Kiwi yes, but one thing to keep in mind is the real prospect of PE compression. In just a few months we've seen 10 year US treasuries, (which set the benchmark for interest rates around the world) rise 100 bps. Buying market darlings on extremely elevated PE's has a lot of dangers to it. Just ask anyone who bought former market darling RYM 10 years ago at double what its trading at now or ATM at three times its current price in 2021. Heck, even Mainfreight, you couldn't go wrong paying ~ 40% more than its current price at nearly $100 a few years ago, according to some.
You can't go too far wrong buying proven GARP, (growth at a reasonable price) stocks that have demonstrated extremely high levels of resilience through all the incredible business challenges of the last 5 years on forward metrics of 10-12. Lots of things can and often do go wrong once you start paying 30 or more times forward earnings for market darlings.
I wasn't posting for your benefit or seeking your comments thanks Basil...... just posting my response to the Q asked by this thread.
I was not recommending MFT or ATM
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2025, 12:53 PMLow Kiwi yes, but one thing to keep in mind is the real prospect of PE compression. In just a few months we've seen 10 year US treasuries, (which set the benchmark for interest rates around the world) rise 100 bps. Buying market darlings on extremely elevated PE's has a lot of dangers to it. Just ask anyone who bought former market darling RYM 10 years ago at double what its trading at now or ATM at three times its current price in 2021. Heck, even Mainfreight, you couldn't go wrong paying ~ 40% more than its current price at nearly $100 a few years ago, according to some.
You can't go too far wrong buying proven GARP, (growth at a reasonable price) stocks that have demonstrated extremely high levels of resilience through all the incredible business challenges of the last 5 years on forward metrics of 10-12. Lots of things can and often do go wrong once you start paying 30 or more times forward earnings for market darlings.
Thanks Basil. You have mentioned TRA and HLG as your 2 biggest holdings, what is your number 3 if you don't mind me asking and are they a buy at current levels?
Thanks
Quote from: Playa on Jan 16, 2025, 03:07 PMThanks Basil. You have mentioned TRA and HLG as your 2 biggest holdings, what is your number 3 if you don't mind me asking and are they a buy at current levels?
Thanks
Roughly equal in size to each of the above two is my holding in BRM but as you know, while that's listed here it's an Australian investment fund. My next true N.Z. position after that is KFL. Is it a buy at this point? Yes and No. There have recently been better buying opportunities at 12-14% discount to NAV and it was compelling buying in November and December last year at that level when I was hoovering up quite a few. Latest discount level is 8% is still pretty good buying for a broad-brush exposure to N.Z. equities and the manager has a well proven track record of outperforming the NZX after fees. I think the N.Z. market in general should benefit from quite sizeable cuts to the OCR over 2025. RBNZ has no alternative but to cut considering we're in the deepest recession since the GFC. I consider KFL a core part of my strategy going forward.
Quote from: Left Field on Jan 16, 2025, 02:47 PMI wasn't posting for your benefit or seeking your comments thanks Basil...... just posting my response to the Q asked by this thread.
I was not recommending MFT or ATM
I understand that and I simply made post #8 as mainly an addendum to my earlier post for people to think about in terms of their strategy going forward as too much capital has been burned over the years by people chasing market darlings on highly elevated metrics. Not many people know how far the ten-year US and for that matter U.K. bond rates have risen in recent months and the potential impact on PE multiplies going forward.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2025, 03:59 PMI understand that and I simply made post #8 as mainly an addendum to my earlier post for people to think about in terms of their strategy going forward as too much capital has been burned over the years by people chasing market darlings on highly elevated metrics.
I agree, however, if you had taken note of my comment in para 3 in post #7, it is all about buying 'market darlings' not at inflated prices but buying the dips and buying gradually.
On the GTK thread you will see posts showing that I quietly purchased GTK at 1.53 around 2 yrs ago because I judged it to be 'beaten down'....in simple terms I've yielded a tax free capital gain of around 300% pa since. With the recent GTK upgrade, I expect GTK will outperform many other shares in 2025.... plus the recent fall in GTKs SP from upgrade highs of $14.40 to $11.00 earlier this week was maybe a good opportunity to acquire....time will tell.
On the IFT thread I posted when was acquiring at an average from the mid $8.00's to the early $9.00's after the CEO purchased 1 mill shares at around $9.40 and the SP dipped lower..... it's worked out well so far.
You recently expressed concern on the IFT thread that the SP was dipping below towards 180 day moving average on a one year TA chart.... however, if you had zoomed out to a 5 or a 10 yr TA chart the recent dip in IFT's long term SP was actually a possible buying opportunity for a 'market darling' share likely to achieve over 20% pa SP gains for the next 5 more yrs. Time will tell.
If I was buying HLG and TRA I would also recommend adding on the dips.
Staples in the US have taken a hit YTD..
defensive and not in demand at the moment it appears..
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 17, 2025, 10:39 AMStaples in the US have taken a hit YTD..
defensive and not in demand at the moment it appears..
Good point.
We probably need to clarify as well what type of portfolio we are talking about.
If people want a dividend portfolio, then they need other "must have" stocks then if they want a high growth portfolio.
If they want the potential of high rewards, then they must be prepared to take high risks.
If they want to preserve their capital, then they must be prepared to accept lower income.
If they are traders, than their portfolio will look quite different to that of long term investors.
Playa, which type of portfolio are you thinking about?
the type of portfolio that can survive the next invasion...TWA.
it appears there is always a next one.
not talking the aviator here.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 17, 2025, 12:58 PMthe type of portfolio that can survive the next invasion...TWA.
it appears there is always a next one.
not talking the aviator here.
Well, in that case staples might not be a bad idea - even if their SP will jitter as other stocks do as well :) ;
People always buy food with priority - and they are even happy to (well, not sure about happy, but they do ...) pay a significantly higher price than before the last crisis.
Food is good for investors looking for a rather steady income stream without huge ups and downs.
Obviously - unless the company board is inept or playing games (as it used to be the case with SAN), or one buys the shares from Private Equity or in any IPO where owners are selling into (MFB). Ah yes - and always mind the gap at the end of any cycle :);
amazing how out of favour staples are in the US at the moment... obviously they dont think there is anything disruptive coming..
hmmm sure looks like 1905 from here... build up of arms... in fact looks like we missed investing in RM... german autos might be out of favour by Germany Armour is not out of favour and in fact looks to ahead of the US... many versions of the panther and the germans looks to be far better at manufacture than the US as long as they can get their gear to be reliable in the field...
Quote from: Playa on Jan 15, 2025, 09:45 AMIn your opinion
Vhich zhare vould be ze last released vrom my cold dying hands as my portvolio eez liquidated?? Ze one beginning vith 'Z', Zkellerup. But zhat could be because I ztore my zhare records alphabetically een a box.
RB
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 17, 2025, 12:35 PMGood point.
We probably need to clarify as well what type of portfolio we are talking about.
If people want a dividend portfolio, then they need other "must have" stocks then if they want a high growth portfolio.
If they want the potential of high rewards, then they must be prepared to take high risks.
If they want to preserve their capital, then they must be prepared to accept lower income.
If they are traders, than their portfolio will look quite different to that of long term investors.
Playa, which type of portfolio are you thinking about?
Buy and hold, growth and divvy