It strikes me that the RBNZ have a Lot of room to cut and that could fuel a broad rally in the NZX next year.
Good article from Harbour Asset Management. Top 10 risks and opportunities for 2025. Good summer holiday reading I reckon.
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/top10risks-and-opportunities2025/?_cldee=Ge96DgqeEPG1XDNaMoY5xZck4ncasOVWjmEZ-2ZwxKmxRa6jseoiipNNkfjqUB4U&recipientid=contact-103efa936911cd3da9415a8232cf7847-b9ef7a8578c44ec380972227894ba2fb&esid=157b1ae9-2fb8-ef11-a72f-002248960727
Quote from: Basil on Dec 12, 2024, 05:47 PMIt strikes me that the RBNZ have a Lot of room to cut and that could fuel a broad rally in the NZX next year.
Good article from Harbour Asset Management. Top 10 risks and opportunities for 2025. Good summer holiday reading I reckon. ..............
I haven't yet read through the article, at risk of digressing the thread I am anticipating around 6 months opportunity to accumulate the strugglers at moments when Mr Market is treating them a bit harshly (SPK ?? at moment).
Not too inclined to buy NZX index funds but maybe over the 12 months to 31 December 2025 pick a say 20% raise in the index, pure speculation.
KFL holdings quantities in my portfolios might grow by a third if things seem to remain sluggish into second half of 2025.
Bit random inarticulate post sorry.
Mark Lister of Craigs opines on the outlook for 2025
https://craigsip.com/news/six-predictions-for-2025?utm_source=insights-enews-171224&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=six-predictions-for-2025&_cldee=mpnDZASxfdyycP_RT13HiKfZnENfPN7WuS4cuCJ7ERUZ0J_8vtJnmTgWgT4JyzdW&recipientid=contact-f4e18c1d7f2de8119427005056a307fc-8b1437c7de5a47cb893bad985ff950c5&esid=cfaaa7f6-4ab3-ef11-a31c-00224892ff09
My view in that reliable high yield dividend payers, like for example TRA and HLG are going to see a VERY good 2025. 8%+ gross yield is going to look extremely attractive compared to term deposits yielding maybe somewhere around 3.5% this time next year.
There may be some dips out there to pick up some ... will this be the norm for wall street....
the new chaos... maybe some flash crashes...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/19/politics/trump-musk-capitol-chaos-analysis/index.html
In addition to flash crashes...I wonder if there is another 'blue chip' (other than SPK) that is about to go through a re-rate with increased debts being used to pay dividends and stagnant EPS. Oh dear....why is it so hard to find decent blue chip companies on the NZX??
well maybe its the economy and the number of top talent to run them has already gone abroad...
the number of dutch engineers in the 70's and 80's that came out to work for industry helped tech up everything from pharmacy inventory to diary factories...
they slowly went back to europe over the next 45 years ore retired to taupo for cottages somewhere... one recently went back to a cottage in FRANCE!!!
its time isnt it to finally join the Kanga's put the Treaty to rest...
Broker picks for 2025. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/brokers-picks-2025-why-energy-tech-retirement-remain-favourites/EVLJMMQIOJDCDCPZHZ5NNYFVYA/
Fair bit of love for SUM who I have noted are best of breed for many years now.
I think they're fairly valued at present and note the poor yield of 1.89% unimputed (1.27% after tax).
At least Contact, also well picked, gives you a half reasonable running yield of 5.47%.
Interesting observation is move from 70% NZX picks in 2024 to <50% in 2025.
Yes, an increasing propensity towards overseas shares.
Possibly worth noting that no broker picked selections that provided a return superior to a simple S&P500 ETF, I didn't either which is food for thought going forward https://www.smartinvest.co.nz/funds-and-performance/etfs/us-shares/smart-us-500-etf
5 years after fees and tax return of 15.6% is probably more representative of what could be expected over the next 5 years, in my opinion.
US markets are expensive on a forward PE basis and our dollar is very low so maybe after a very strong year for the US markets, now is not the best timing to be considering a US ETF?
Hard to beat a broadly diversified global fund. I've got 80% of my wealth in the Simplicity Global Share Fund (hedged) which is up some 26% YTD.
That's a good one year performance but one wonders what their average performance in the years ahead might be ? Maybe 15% ?
It is largely made up of the sp500 so id imagine the return broadly mirrors that index
https://tradethatswing.com/average-historical-stock-market-returns-for-sp-500-5-year-up-to-150-year-averages/#:~:text=The%20average%20yearly%20return%20of%20the%20S%26P%20500,average%20stock%20market%20return%20%28including%20dividends%29%20is%207.803%25.
Taking out the booming dairy sector from the economic numbers, with all the ructions overseas and its effect on business and consumer sentiment, I think the economy is teetering on the edge of falling back into recession, (for most people and sectors I don't think we really ever got out of the last 3 years recession).
Surely to avoid another winter of despair, (wasn't last winter a shocker), the RBNZ needs to cut 50 bps on 28 May. Hopefully common sense prevails.
Reported yesterday after market close, even after yesterday's nice bounce the NZX50 gross index inclusive of all dividends paid is down 7% year to date, one of the weakest and worst performing markets in the world. the ASX by contrast is flat, signaling a major divergence in the relative strength of the two economies. I hope now that Arianne Orr is gone, (who I think did a piss poor job), the new RBNZ governor has a better feel for what the economy is really doing out there.
Quote from: Basil on May 02, 2025, 11:36 AMTaking out the booming dairy sector from the economic numbers, with all the ructions overseas and its effect on business and consumer sentiment, I think the economy is teetering on the edge of falling back into recession, (for most people and sectors I don't think we really ever got out of the last 3 years recession).
Surely to avoid another winter of despair, (wasn't last winter a shocker), the RBNZ needs to cut 50 bps on 28 May. Hopefully common sense prevails.
I agree, on the ground things are very bleak