Weekly Update:
F4D42D86-A6A6-41A8-9EA9-0FD2ABED2ECE.jpeg
Mortgage rates heading to 7.5% over the coming year
That won't help the cost of living crisis ..... subdued retail sales through 2022/2023
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-rates-predicted-to-rise-to-between-6pc-to-75pc/757XFPKD7LEXSSF5Y6AOHRNZXQ/?ref=readmore
Impossible to predict the future.
Oil prices won't stay high forever and neither will inflation or interest rates. While we don't know whether it is months or years until it all comes down again - eventually it will.
This is the problem with linear extrapolations. Always easy but as well (for longer periods) always wrong.
What we however do know is that people always will need food as well as basics. Good to know, that some things are predictable, unless we assume the world gets rid of people.
However - if it does, everything else does not matter anymore.
I recon retail stocks selling food and basics will be fine.
Impossible to predict the future BP keeps reminding us
Yogi Berra summed it up nicely 'the future ain't what it used to be'
Do we have the critical mass on this forum now? I really don't want to participate in two different locations...
How do you measure critical mass for a forum? But anyway a bit early to decide.
I hear your sentiment, but from previous experience - better to have two forums which do work, than one forum which doesn't ...
Quote from: Beagle on Jun 28, 2022, 01:58 PMI'd love to see some of the old hands who were banned from the other site post quality content on a regular basis.
Common guys, its been so long since we heard from you. How are you navigating this bear market, what's your strategy ?
And who decides and judges what is quality content? A forum by definition is simply an exchange of ideas and opinions with or without research and all have something to contribute whether big or small, every part of a human body is important even the parts you never consider or think are insignificant.
Quote from: Beagle on Jun 28, 2022, 01:58 PMI'd love to see some of the old hands who were banned from the other site post quality content on a regular basis.
Common guys, its been so long since we heard from you. How are you navigating this bear market, what's your strategy ?
This 'old hand' has a adopted a "once bitten - twice shy" approach - to posting that is. I've discovered a good life outside of the 'cancel culture' forum..... as such I'm unlikely to be posting much on this newer site.
In terms of retail investments - I have none as I have personal aversion to the sector. ( Call me crazy.)
In terms of general share investing, I'm still in the NZ market and although down from my heady highs I'm using the bear market to lower my DCA's on a more diversified range of stocks.
History tells us that Bear markets don't last forever and I consider I am 'well positioned' and still miles ahead of where I started investing in 2012.
Two things make retail a bit of a crap place to be at present. The first is the obvious sucking of billions of dollars in discretionary spending out of the economy courtesy of higher interest rates and a reduction in the wealth effect (feeling rich from watching your house price go up). The second is the transition away from goods to services as economies open up and people start to get out more, which will fuel inflation in the services sector (labour shortages mean services supply cant gear up quickly) even while deflation may start in the goods sector. Only problem is that services is 65% of the economy compared to goods. Inflation is a bit like a pig in a python, moving slowly through certain sectors as people en masse change their buying preferences and do so as an entire global herd. So while the P in the P/E ratio has compressed, now its time to be looking hard at the E in the equation.
Don't assume food retailers will be immune to inflation induced reduction in demand. Being a consumer staple usually means you just don't fare as bad as other retailers, but you still suffer. People stop buying that pack of Tim Tams at Countdown. CKF in Australia just announced that they will be raising prices for KFC for the third time this year. Today I noted that the price of a KFC box meal in NZ has gone from $11.50 in April 2019 to $16.40 today. I don't eat at KFC much anymore, especially after paying $20 the last time I was there.
Nice to see KW posting again.....your input has been missed.
At the risk of wandering off the 'retail' topic, I wonder in more general terms referencing your sign-off "don't buy shares in a downtrend" I wonder what your general strategy is in the current inflation/recession scared downtrend. What has changed for you ? Are you still holding? Have you increased your cash holdings? etc.
Quote from: Left Field on Jun 29, 2022, 08:49 AMNice to see KW posting again.....your input has been missed.
At the risk of wandering off the 'retail' topic, I wonder in more general terms referencing your sign-off "don't buy shares in a downtrend" I wonder what your general strategy is in the current inflation/recession scared downtrend. What has changed for you ? Are you still holding? Have you increased your cash holdings? etc.
Sold most things as each stock broke down individually (moved below their 200 day MA). This exited me out of most of my holdings in Jan/Feb of this year. I stupidly held on to a couple, which just served to remind me of how powerful TA really is and how I really should apply it to 100% of my portfolio and not 85% LOL
Just watching now to see if a good bear market rally can get traction, or if a bottom is forming. It does not feel like the market is ready to bottom as there is not enough capitulation or despair around, so the psychological requirements for cycle inflection have not been met.
Quote from: KW on Jun 29, 2022, 11:32 AMQuote from: Left Field on Jun 29, 2022, 08:49 AMNice to see KW posting again.....your input has been missed.
At the risk of wandering off the 'retail' topic, I wonder in more general terms referencing your sign-off "don't buy shares in a downtrend" I wonder what your general strategy is in the current inflation/recession scared downtrend. What has changed for you ? Are you still holding? Have you increased your cash holdings? etc.
Sold most things as each stock broke down individually (moved below their 200 day MA). This exited me out of most of my holdings in Jan/Feb of this year. I stupidly held on to a couple, which just served to remind me of how powerful TA really is and how I really should apply it to 100% of my portfolio and not 85% LOL.......
Thanks. Appreciated. FWIW I've probably held on to more than I should have... some free-held, and some still in profit. Have used DCA to improve my position in some key areas. We live in interesting times.
Good news out of OZ:
QuoteIn Australia, retail sales rose by +0.9% month-on-month in May to AU$34.2 bln, topping market forecasts and matching the April gain. This was also their fifth straight month of growth, as the Aussie economy recovered further from pandemic disruptions. The rise from a year ago exceeded +10%, handily beating inflation. Department stores had the largest month-on-month rise, up +5.1%, followed by cafes and restaurants. Given Australian consumer sentiment is low, this free-spending is a puzzle - not too dissimilar to the same track in the US. Makes you suspect "sentiment" is now hijacked as political, whereas the spending track tells the real economic story.
Good stuffin OZ eh FM
Yes market commentary / sentiment doesn't seem to reflect reality
Chart shows total sales less food (proxy for discretionary spend) over the years
Might needto click on it to see it ...I'll suss posting charts one day0000ausrettot.JPG
interesting ... wondering, whether inflation might have some impact as well? Anyway - the price for the first chart published in stocktalk must go to you ...
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Jun 30, 2022, 08:47 AMGood news out of OZ:
QuoteIn Australia, retail sales rose by +0.9% month-on-month in May to AU$34.2 bln, topping market forecasts and matching the April gain. This was also their fifth straight month of growth, as the Aussie economy recovered further from pandemic disruptions. The rise from a year ago exceeded +10%, handily beating inflation. Department stores had the largest month-on-month rise, up +5.1%, followed by cafes and restaurants. Given Australian consumer sentiment is low, this free-spending is a puzzle - not too dissimilar to the same track in the US. Makes you suspect "sentiment" is now hijacked as political, whereas the spending track tells the real economic story.
Kind of need to be careful with that data - aside from the fact that raw $ figures merely reflect the increased prices of everything and not that people just bought more stuff, I recently read a really good article about how in an inflationary recession retail sales boom in the beginning, fooling people into thinking that things are ok, when they really are not. The reason that sales boom is because of inflation - people see the prices of things going up, and going up very quickly, so they panic and pull forward purchasing because they know if they wait then that item will be much more expensive later and they won't be able to afford it then. So they do everything they can to find the money to buy it now - cars, household appliances, renovation work, etc. The irony of course, is that this big pull forward merely gives fuel to the inflationary fire making it even worse, so central banks put up interest rates again, and so the ultimate recession becomes even deeper and more entrenched.
Hi everyone.
Thanks KW.
Yes its very easy to be fooled into thinking everything is okay with spending when looking at headline numbers when inflation is running at 7%. You make an excellent point about people bringing spending forward.
One thing to watch this earnings season is the same principle applies with earnings. For example a modest 3% increase in earnings per share in 2022 is actually a 4% reduction on PCP if you account for inflation.
Where "E" goes in FY23 is yet another matter altogether ?, again to be considered in relation to very high, (for recent decades), and probably very persistent inflation. For example if company XYZ is showing no growth in eps year on year on year but inflation is running in the mid to high single digits...oh my goodness, what metrics does one apply to a company like that in the current high inflation environment, (i.e. decreasing eps in real inflation adjusted terms) ?
Quote from: KW on Jun 30, 2022, 11:42 AMQuote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Jun 30, 2022, 08:47 AMGood news out of OZ:
QuoteIn Australia, retail sales rose by +0.9% month-on-month in May to AU$34.2 bln, topping market forecasts and matching the April gain. This was also their fifth straight month of growth, as the Aussie economy recovered further from pandemic disruptions. The rise from a year ago exceeded +10%, handily beating inflation. Department stores had the largest month-on-month rise, up +5.1%, followed by cafes and restaurants. Given Australian consumer sentiment is low, this free-spending is a puzzle - not too dissimilar to the same track in the US. Makes you suspect "sentiment" is now hijacked as political, whereas the spending track tells the real economic story.
Kind of need to be careful with that data - aside from the fact that raw $ figures merely reflect the increased prices of everything and not that people just bought more stuff, I recently read a really good article about how in an inflationary recession retail sales boom in the beginning, fooling people into thinking that things are ok, when they really are not. The reason that sales boom is because of inflation - people see the prices of things going up, and going up very quickly, so they panic and pull forward purchasing because they know if they wait then that item will be much more expensive later and they won't be able to afford it then. So they do everything they can to find the money to buy it now - cars, household appliances, renovation work, etc. The irony of course, is that this big pull forward merely gives fuel to the inflationary fire making it even worse, so central banks put up interest rates again, and so the ultimate recession becomes even deeper and more entrenched.
nicely put KW
Quote from: Basil on Jun 30, 2022, 04:31 PMHi everyone.
Thanks KW.
Yes its very easy to be fooled into thinking everything is okay with spending when looking at headline numbers when inflation is running at 7%. You make an excellent point about people bringing spending forward.
One thing to watch this earnings season is the same principle applies with earnings. For example a modest 3% increase in earnings per share in 2022 is actually a 4% reduction on PCP if you account for inflation.
Where "E" goes in FY23 is yet another matter altogether ?, again to be considered in relation to very high, (for recent decades), and probably very persistent inflation. For example if company XYZ is showing no growth in eps year on year on year but inflation is running in the mid to high single digits...oh my goodness, what metrics does one apply to a company like that in the current high inflation environment, (i.e. decreasing eps in real inflation adjusted terms) ?
Basil are you a Beagle.?
I am a bit of a Percy,but most people know that already....lol.
Quote from: lorraina on Jun 30, 2022, 06:39 PMQuote from: Basil on Jun 30, 2022, 04:31 PMHi everyone.
Thanks KW.
Yes its very easy to be fooled into thinking everything is okay with spending when looking at headline numbers when inflation is running at 7%. You make an excellent point about people bringing spending forward.
One thing to watch this earnings season is the same principle applies with earnings. For example a modest 3% increase in earnings per share in 2022 is actually a 4% reduction on PCP if you account for inflation.
Where "E" goes in FY23 is yet another matter altogether ?, again to be considered in relation to very high, (for recent decades), and probably very persistent inflation. For example if company XYZ is showing no growth in eps year on year on year but inflation is running in the mid to high single digits...oh my goodness, what metrics does one apply to a company like that in the current high inflation environment, (i.e. decreasing eps in real inflation adjusted terms) ?
Basil are you a Beagle.?
I am a bit of a Percy,but most people know that already....lol.
oh my goodness, its my contention you might be right
The other huge headwind is going to be the weakness of the NZD which will hurt gross margins and is effectively another inflationary headwind which can also hurt demand.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jun 30, 2022, 06:49 PMQuote from: lorraina on Jun 30, 2022, 06:39 PMQuote from: Basil on Jun 30, 2022, 04:31 PMHi everyone.
Thanks KW.
Yes its very easy to be fooled into thinking everything is okay with spending when looking at headline numbers when inflation is running at 7%. You make an excellent point about people bringing spending forward.
One thing to watch this earnings season is the same principle applies with earnings. For example a modest 3% increase in earnings per share in 2022 is actually a 4% reduction on PCP if you account for inflation.
Where "E" goes in FY23 is yet another matter altogether ?, again to be considered in relation to very high, (for recent decades), and probably very persistent inflation. For example if company XYZ is showing no growth in eps year on year on year but inflation is running in the mid to high single digits...oh my goodness, what metrics does one apply to a company like that in the current high inflation environment, (i.e. decreasing eps in real inflation adjusted terms) ?
Basil are you a Beagle.?
I am a bit of a Percy,but most people know that already....lol.
oh my goodness, its my contention you might be right
My friend says Basil the Rat and watch Fawlty Towers.
More inflation means you put more discount in your value calculations.
Weekly Update:
B3AD75DA-2528-4989-9171-94BF371B0224.jpeg
Nice strong performance by MHJ and TRA this week.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/more-bad-news-in-store-for-australian-retailers-analysts/news-story/55b83bbfb869422145dbfedda5fb8f88
Australia's legion of publicly listed retailers could be only at the beginning of a painful unwinding of sales and earnings growth that could take another three years to play out, repeating the slow recovery for the sector seen in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis almost two decades ago.
"While we believe Australia is well progressed in 'Stage 1' of the GFC playbook, we believe it is too early to pivot to a positive sector view, given downwards earnings revisions have further to go ... and 'bad' news likely to come over next three to six months. We expect further analyst downgrades over the next three to six months as the 'story' of weaker consumer conditions flows through to listed retailer earnings."
Applies to NZ retailers as well.
Weekly Update:
A6690C8D-B160-47BA-87B0-5984EFB85512.jpeg
Without being miserable I hope the big retailers aren't as glum as the small ones
Pretty dire when "Figures from Retail NZ show more than a third of business owners are not confident they will survive the next 12 months."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/470612/the-cost-of-retail-it-s-going-to-be-pretty-difficult-over-the-next-few-months
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 09, 2022, 12:02 PMWithout being miserable I hope the big retailers aren't as glum as the small ones
Pretty dire when "Figures from Retail NZ show more than a third of business owners are not confident they will survive the next 12 months."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/470612/the-cost-of-retail-it-s-going-to-be-pretty-difficult-over-the-next-few-months
Sounds like there will be plenty of acquisition opportunities for companies with healthy balance sheets ... and there still will be less competitors around come spring.
All good - as they say in Palestine ... when apricots are cheap it is the the time to plant new apricot trees ;D
FB cautious on retail. Insert from today
Recessionary risks appear to be rising and with retailers ultimately reliant on the spending habits of consumers, periods of economic weakness can meaningfully affect the bottom line; but the market may be overly cautious — retailers share prices have on average declined -21% since late last year. We analyse historical data and leverage our understanding of each retail company under coverage in an attempt to quantify the relationship between GDP and earnings. We find KMD Brands (KMD; OUTPERFORM) and The Warehouse Group (WHS, OUTPERFORM) are the most exposed to the economic cycle. On the other hand Restaurant Brands (RBD; NEUTRAL) and My Food Bag (MFB; no rating), operating in staple segments are likely to be more resilient. We recognise that a degree of caution is warranted as consumers look likely to face increasing costs of living and tighten discretionary spending. However, our calculations suggest the market may already be pricing in a downside scenario, allowing for: (1) a -22% decline in WHS's one-year forward NPAT which equates to a scenario where GDP declines -2%, and (2) for KMD's one-year forward NPAT to decline a further -14% from pandemic-interrupted levels.
Electronic Card Spend ex Stats NZ an indication how things are going
For month of June v last year
Core Retail...........UP 0.8%
Fuel....................UP 14.7%
Vehicle exc fuel....DOWN 5.0%
Total Retail..........UP 1.9%
Annual sales to June this year v last year
Core Retail...............DOWN 1.1%
Fuel........................UP 4.4%
Vehicle ex fuel..........DOWN 4.6%
Total Retail..............DOWN 0.7%
Weekly Update:
3CE39558-C596-44F9-80EA-64ADC66CA1E1.jpeg
RetailWatch June sales data out
Changes over June last year below
Fuel and Travel big increases .... rest pretty dismal (considering inflation)
00000retwATCH.JPG
Weekly Update:
CA218A0D-3FF2-48D0-BCED-1CE01B66F27E.jpeg
Thanks LEK for the updates
PEs are interesting .... maybe MHJ currently is the cheapest but not by much?
Massive breakout in the Australian ecommerce retail stocks today (KGN, TPW, RBL). Could be a sign the bottom is in. :o
Shocked indeed. I remain very cautious.
Quote from: KW on Jul 28, 2022, 12:24 PMMassive breakout in the Australian ecommerce retail stocks today (KGN, TPW, RBL). Could be a sign the bottom is in. :o
I'm calling it that way. (Call me crazy.) Mind you, I'm talking NZX. I think retail still in for a hard time for a while yet.
General market likely to track sideways for a while IMO...... while depending on the coming results season, some individual stocks will shine.
A few insights in this article about Aussie retail
"Some people will be pulling back [on spending] while others are still spending like crazy, but on average people are spending like crazy," he says. ..... but 2023 might not be as good
https://www.morningstar.com.au/credit/article/are-the-glory-days-over-for-the-retail-sector/225675?utm_campaign=Morning%20Note%20Free%20Email%2020220805&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Email%20Campaign
Chart below gives one an idea of what 'spending like crazy' looks like (re article posted earlier
The total less food related line is a proxy for discretionary spend
The clothing line is there because its part of my HLG performance overview -- Glassons AU must have a lot of customers spending like crazy
0000AUSSIESALES.JPG
Spending patterns are likely to change as a result of inflation - for instance, the massive increase in renovation costs are putting people off renovating, but they still have the funds they originally budgeted for it, so will they spend this money on maybe redecorating and buying new furniture instead?
We are still living under Covid restrictions in NZ, so its hard to know what the rest of the world is doing unless you leave NZ. But as far as I can tell, life is back to normal everywhere else, whereas here you dont even want to enter a shopping mall because you have to wear a mask, let alone spend 2-3 hours wandering around the place. So a lot of NZ retail won't pick up until Covid restrictions are dropped.
My first business was a toy shop.When NZ went into a recession people stopped buying big ticket items, which left them with plenty of money to send on their children's toys.
Briscoes online sales were up 22%,so online channel is still proving its worth,therefore make sure the retailer you invest in has strong online sales.
Card Spend July
Retail card spending down 0.2 percent in July
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/retai...rcent-in-july/
That's seasonally adjusted
v last year Total down 0.5% / Core Retail down 0.9% / Durables down 4.0%
Durables probably most relevant for listed retail - so down 4.0% not too good
Core Retail value down 0.9% but number of transactions down 8.8% gives some idea of volume and inflation impacts
Looks like a bifurcated market. On one hand many are struggling with the cost of living crisis and on the other based on evidence I have seen there is no shortage of people lining up to buy some high quality lifestyle assets. I guess it comes down to the have's and have not's.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 09, 2022, 03:15 PMLooks like a bifurcated market. On one hand many are struggling with the cost of living crisis and on the other based on evidence I have seen there is no shortage of people lining up to buy some high quality lifestyle assets. I guess it comes down to the have's and have not's.
Correct. This is how growing inequality looks like. Gap between Rich and Poor is increasing until the poor people revolt. Quite funny to observe this under a Labour government, but hey - you can't fix problems with good intentions alone. We better prepare for the coming revolution ....
To your point BP https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/everything-is-so-expensive-some-kiwis-working-70-hour-weeks-to-survive-as-second-job-epidemic-hits/ar-AA10sN37?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=54a5c5bed2f6492185f1d87e164d27e4
I think the nub of the issue for many is the cost of housing and the rate of pay.
Got chatting to a guy yesterday who came from Perth and one of my nephews has very recently settled there.
He got a good quality brick and tile home for his family for $379K on 2% deposit. That's right, 2% deposit ! Pay rate is nearly 50% more than he was earning here. If I was a young pup struggling with cost of living I'd start a new life there.
Labour were right to raise the minimum wage and it needs to keep going up at least at the rate of inflation each year.
do you think our fiat, debt based currency has anything to do with it?
I mean, massive debasement of currency is what the "poor" are dealing with for purchasing power, and for the "rich" they are offloading the queen's vouchers as fast as possible and swapping them for things that they actually want
Quote from: arekaywhy on Aug 10, 2022, 09:14 AMdo you think our fiat, debt based currency has anything to do with it?
I mean, massive debasement of currency is what the "poor" are dealing with for purchasing power, and for the "rich" they are offloading the queen's vouchers as fast as possible and swapping them for things that they actually want
LOL you're not wrong about that !
Retail spending is suggesting we are already in recession (I believe we are, regardless of which wonky definition the Govt prefers to use).
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117341/economists-surprised-fall-retail-spending-june-quarter-which-raises-possibility
a few nasty results out in Australia, KGN and CCX both suffering from overstocking inventory and the cashflow woes that come as a result.
Thanks KW, interesting article and some very interesting comments in the comments section below.
Its crystal clear we are seeing a real bifurcation in retail spending between the have's and the have nots.
Not many left in the middle any more.
Hallensteins latest trading update FYI..... margins under pressure.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397702
The Company advises that Group sales for the 12 months ended 1 August 2022 were $351.21 million, an increase of 0.1% on the prior year ($350.76 million).
Group net profit after tax is expected to be within the range of $23.9 million to $24.9 million, a decrease of approximately -26.8% on the prior year ($33.3 million).
Be remiss of me if I didn't share a few thoughts on HLG that's been so good for me in years gone by.
Looking at this through the lens of consumers really feeling the pinch with the cost of living crisis really driving a bifurcated market and huge wedge between the have's and the have not's who are either broadly unaffected or seriously affected by financial pressures.
Anecdotally an interesting comment out overnight from GAP that demand in the middle of the apparel market (where they and HLG broadly sit), is weak.
I think Dollar General also warned overnight on Wall St, saw something on CNBC early this morning, (I was a bit sleepy at the time so might have this wrong).
What I think is happening is the have's are still buying their luxury goods, (some high end brands seem to be doing well) and the have nots are closing their wallets and just surviving, (food, transport and shelter basics only) or if they are buying they're moving down-market to very cheap generic brand clothing. The mid point consumer is being squeezed so hard in my view they're less inclined to buy middle of the market apparel and that headwind doesn't look like abating anytime soon.
Going forward I expect a considerable delay between cost of living pressures and consumers response with the year ahead fully reflecting those pressures and only a very modest impact reflected in HLG's current year reporting.
Its also clear HLG are being impacted by cost of doing business pressures with rising rents, staff costs and supply chain cost pressures.
While headline sales are flat its well worth noting they are down 7.2% in real inflation adjusted terms. (We need to be thinking carefully about inflation adjusting top and bottom line reporting due to the serious extent of it these days).
At the mid point they are forecasting $24.4m for 40.9 cps. I'm inclined to think demand in the year ahead in the mid price point apparel market will be muted. Its not clear when things will get back to "normal" and Glassons can return to eps growth.
What's absolute clear from a net income perspective to dividend hounds is future dividends will continue to only be partially imputed.
At $5.60 they trade on 13.7 times FY22 earnings and with no immediate catalyst for earnings growth, (the possibility of earnings declining further in FY23 cannot be ruled out), so they look very vulnerable to an ongoing decline in my view.
I would need to see them on a considerably more attractive multiple given clear headwinds in the foreseeable future to jump back in.
I'm content to sit on the sidelines here for the foreseeable future and wait for more promising times to emerge or the price to more correctly reflect the significant challenges ahead. I think we could see low $4's at some point. Good luck to holders.
Impact of a bifurcated market shows up in this chart from ANZ from this months Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence poll
Markedly different responses from those with or without mortgages ...those without mortgages might buy a major household item ..those with mortgages still in the doldrums
52C464F3-DAA6-4BD3-ABE9-6062D240D73A.png
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 26, 2022, 03:02 PMMarkedly different responses from those with or without mortgages ...those without mortgages might buy a major household item ..those with mortgages still in the doldrums
That is only going to last until rents start going up over the next year as (a) higher interest rates kick in to investor loans, and (b) interest deductibility moves from 75% deductible to only 50% deductible.
Briscoes results to 31 July just out.....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398748
Highlights for the 26-week period – 31 January 2022 to 31 July 2022:
• Total sales $367.95 million, +2.66%
• Online sales as mix of total Group sales, 19.36%
• Online sales growth +22.93%
• Gross profit % 45.64% vs 46.50% last year
• Net profit after tax (NPAT) $45.62 million, -3.88%
• Interim Dividend 12.00 cps increased from 11.50 cps last year
Now that masks are no more, consumers will return to the shopping malls and stores should find it easier to recruit staff. But it all may be a little too late, as inflation decimates people's spending power.
Also a reminder that nationwide rent increases will start in October, as landlords seek to recoup higher interest costs and taxes. That's going to bite.
Quote from: KW on Sep 14, 2022, 11:44 AMNow that masks are no more, consumers will return to the shopping malls and stores should find it easier to recruit staff. But it all may be a little too late, as inflation decimates people's spending power.
Also a reminder that nationwide rent increases will start in October, as landlords seek to recoup higher interest costs and taxes. That's going to bite.
Covid has changed shopping patterns as the increase in Briscoes online shopping shows.
More internet, less bricks and mortar retail. Landlords may struggle to get the retail rent increases they want.
Retail is a fickle market especially in these times.... thankfully I'm just a side line observer.
Quote from: Left Field on Sep 14, 2022, 01:18 PMCovid has changed shopping patterns as the increase in Briscoes online shopping shows.
More internet, less bricks and mortar retail. Landlords may struggle to get the retail rent increases they want.
Retail is a fickle market especially in these times.... thankfully I'm just a side line observer.
Briscoes change in instore/online mix over last few years is quite dramatic
Since January 2019 annual online sales have grown from $63m to $173m as at July this year - up $110m or 175%
In same 3 1/2 years in store sales have grown by $13m (2%) to $581m and are still about the same as they were at January 2020
Just highights how the online channel has been the saviour of Briscoes over the last couple of years
I'd hazard a guess that shopping habits have changed and online activity is here to stay .... but physical stores still an important part of the overall mix .... both for the shopping experience and 'click and collect'
I was in there the other day, and like everywhere else, I went in, got what I came for, paid and then left as quickly as possible. Normally I would wander around for half an hour and see what else they had on special, and if anything caught my eye. I also noted that they are charging $3 for click and collect, which is a bit on the nose. Its almost as if they don't want people to enter their store, and just order online (for an extra $4).
Your reputation is now in doubt.
I find it hard to believe a shopaholic like you, did not loiter with intent for at least half an hour.
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 14, 2022, 04:56 PMYour reputation is now in doubt.
I find it hard to believe a shopaholic like you, did not loiter with intent for at least half an hour.
I have forgotten what its like to loiter with intent. I guess Costco is opening at the perfect time - there is no better place to loiter, you'll be sure to discover something you never knew you needed lol
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 14, 2022, 03:24 PMBriscoes change in instore/online mix over last few years is quite dramatic
Since January 2019 annual online sales have grown from $63m to $173m as at July this year - up $110m or 175%
In same 3 1/2 years in store sales have grown by $13m (2%) to $581m and are still about the same as they were at January 2020
Just highights how the online channel has been the saviour of Briscoes over the last couple of years
I'd hazard a guess that shopping habits have changed and online activity is here to stay .... but physical stores still an important part of the overall mix .... both for the shopping experience and 'click and collect'
Remind me who looks after the Briscoes online shopping channel ?
Estar.
But wait there's more.
David Jones is also a client of their's.
While David Jones FY22 turnover declined by 2.6% amid first half lockdowns, it grew 4.3% in the second half.
Online sales increased by 28.7% and contributed 22.8% to total sales over the full year.
Chart on WHS and HLG actually looks pretty good for recent months.
Maybe all the retail doom and gloom is a bit overdone ?
People seem to be out and about in force this morning enjoying not having to wear a mask. Maybe KPG with its malls is also pretty good buying at 95 cents ?
Quote from: Stoploss on Sep 14, 2022, 09:55 PMRemind me who looks after the Briscoes online shopping channel ?
eStar - Estaronline Ltd is the unlisted Public Company that provides the online platform for a number of major Australasian Companies. Their website is - www.estaronline.com
Refer Lorraina's post number 61 above for more information
Quote from: Basil on Sep 17, 2022, 12:50 PMChart on WHS and HLG actually looks pretty good for recent months.
Maybe all the retail doom and gloom is a bit overdone ?
People seem to be out and about in force this morning enjoying not having to wear a mask. Maybe KPG with its malls is also pretty good buying at 95 cents ?
The Clothing and Footwear (instore and online)segment of NZ's total retail spend for July to Aug was down more than 7%. The total retail spend was down 1% for the month. Things may not be "doom and gloom" but there is cause for caution.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Sep 18, 2022, 05:30 PMThe Clothing and Footwear (instore and online)segment of NZ's total retail spend for July to Aug was down more than 7%. The total retail spend was down 1% for the month. Things may not be "doom and gloom" but there is cause for caution.
Fair comment. I have a modest stake in WHS, (its been good to me in the past), and oh my goodness I can't help myself despite post #50 above I took a small stake in HLG again in recent days. Reasons. 1. The chart doesn't look too shabby at all and it seems to have been building a base over the last ~ 4 months since late May.. 2. There are 2 dividends in the next 7 months and I am expecting ~ 8% gross yield despite only partial imputation. 3. Its been such an incredible stock for me in the past I feel compelled to have some on board. (I acknowledge this is more an emotional attachment issue, but it is predicated upon a very strong balance sheet with no debt and proven management expertise and a solid track record of growth with Glassons Au before Covid). 4. I think FY23 is trough year earnings for them and probably WHS as well. I am investing for yield and on a "look through" FY23 trough year earnings to FY24 these look okay to me. 5 I believe Glassons Australia will start growing again very nicely in FY24. There could be a better entry point for HLG, but I have slowly started a process of opening up a position again and my intentions are that I will dollar cost average into a decent sized position over the next ~ 12 - 18 months.
300 posts on here 8)
Glassons AU sales must be on fire at the moment - good start for HLG FY23
Wow - look at the red line on this chart
It's how clothing sector retail sales are going in OZ (from ABS Retail data)
August month sales were up 83% on last year (following the 51% increase in July). No doubt partly due to lockdowns last year
Must be a great start to the F23 year for Glassons AU
Overall no signs of distress in OZ retail in spite of rate increases etc etc
0000ozcloth.JPG
I've slinked back into my kennell licking my wounds after the WHS result yesterday.
Brutally tough operating environment, (which has already been discussed ad nauseum), and now the currency is well below 60 cents it's really hard to see how they can maintain margins in FY23. HLG and WHS in downtrends. I opened up a very small positions in both, with the intention of dollar cost averaging in over a period of time. It's clear to me now, I started this process too early. Sometimes you are better to admit your mistake, take the medicine like a man / good dog, lick your wounds and come back and have another go later.
I Agree Beagle. Margin is critical in retail. Going to be pretty tough for a while...stock purchase costs up, operating costs up, consumer demand..been good but likely to soften.
I like that at least you make a decisive move. Too many times I think but don't act.
I am sure you still having more wins than losses.
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 29, 2022, 11:36 AMGlassons AU sales must be on fire at the moment - good start for HLG FY23
Wow - look at the red line on this chart
It's how clothing sector retail sales are going in OZ (from ABS Retail data)
August month sales were up 83% on last year (following the 51% increase in July). No doubt partly due to lockdowns last year
Must be a great start to the F23 year for Glassons AU
Overall no signs of distress in OZ retail in spite of rate increases etc etc
Premier in Australia looks to agree with those figures.
Record Premier Retail global sales of $1,497.5 million:
o Sales up 5.2% on FY21 with 42,675 store trading days lost in 1H22
o Global like-for-like sales up 5.4% on FY21
o Record Peter Alexander sales of $428.5 million, up 11.4% on FY21
o Smiggle rebounds with sales of $261.2 million, up 24.6% on FY21 (2H22 up 61.7%)
o Online grows fivefold in five years (up 400% on FY17)
� Premier Retail gross margin of 64.8% up 52 bps on FY21
� Premier Retail EBIT margin of 22.4% up 100 bps on FY21
� All operating debt repaid during the year with FY22 closing cash on hand of $471.3 million
� FY23 has opened strongly with total global sales for the first 7 weeks up 46.7% on 1H22
If NZ retailers are underperforming, then one has to ask why considering economic conditions are pretty similar in both countries at present.
Thought these are worth a read.
https://www.retaildive.com/news/volatility-recession-retailers-default-bankruptcy-risks/630846/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/01/economy-stock-markets-recession/
Datamine retail monthly report:
"Total Retail Spend for September totaled $5.4B, an increase of 3.4% on August 2022 and a 30.9% increase compared to September 2021; this large increase on 2021 is inflated due to the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns during that period.
Instore spending followed a similar pattern, totaling $4.5B for the month. This represented a 4.1% increase on August 2022 and a 33.9% jump compared to September 2021.
Whilst growth in online spend has remained stable since March 2022, we have seen an increase of 17.3% YoY. Online Offshore spend continued to increase, up 2.4% on August 2022 while online domestic spend decreased by 2.0% MoM."
In the clothing / footwear segment there was around 5% growth in sales over the previous month ($241 - 254m.) Basically, the spend has returned to levels similar to early 2021.
Tony Alexander's latest survey results here.
This is the most negative result since our survey started in June 2020 and signals that further pain lies ahead for retailers throughout the country as the Reserve Bank fights inflation with high interest rates.
We also have data telling us that not only are investors not following first home buyers into the housing market, owner occupiers aren't either.
https://tonyalexander.lt.acemlna.com/Prod/link-tracker?redirectUrl=aHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZ3d3cudG9ueWFsZXhhbmRlci5ueiUyRndwLWNvbnRlbnQlMkZ1cGxvYWRzJTJGVFYtU3BlbmRpbmctUGxhbnMtU3VydmV5LU5vdmVtYmVyLTIwMjIucGRm&sig=2MePemHdkzXbKrhqNJwnmB82hLen7dYJUMWwDCqWmMa9&iat=1667760822&a=%7C%7C611496996%7C%7C&account=tonyalexander%2Eactivehosted%2Ecom&email=qcmwvq5abY8hz7kZxf7GH735hO7C%2FF3J%2FgQB9Uu3XAY%3D&s=05e99de56204b8dcf0eb95bd41d72547&i=219A228A1A1359
No wonder i have detected a whiff of panic from the Government...
RetailWatch sales data October
Things still going pretty well - punters still more than last year. Maybe still a bit of catch up from covid last year
Appears as if things returning to normal trend (post covid ups and downs) even though volumes might be a bit flat but its important to get the tills ringing.
Anyway, make of the numbers what you want.
000reetailwatch.JPG
Bodes well for KMD. Australia doing well too. Interesting booze down. Hospitality up.
October Electronic Card Spend Stats NZ
Seems the COL crisis only affected a few -- retail sales more than solid
Total October sales up 1% from Sept (seasonality adjusted)
October sales were 20% higher than last year -- that's pretty good
Durables a de facto measure of discretionary spend -- up 16% for month v pcp and current level of sales way above pre-covid trend
0000card.JPG
Love this chart
0000card.JPG
Dont you just love it !!!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/130582868/the-covid-reckoning-is-overdue--and-the-team-of-five-million-is-being-asked-to-wear-the-cost-again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25-8el1FLzo
BOOM..... looks like some people dont dont dont want to wear it!!! Did Mr O just get K'Od!!!
Hopefully its a HOT HOT summer...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikgpaT5_XXY
Glasson sales ? well a fashion designer in Aus says its store are ragging...
At Sylvia Park last Friday
Busy as for a week day (though it was "Black Friday"), and Glassons very busy, Hallensteins not so much.
Do a lot of people take the day off?? I did, to do some Xmas shopping without the children around!
In the seven days ended November 26, shoppers spent $350m. That was down 9.5 per cent on last year
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...KX7SGQ36HPZRE/
Extract "Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailers saw spending rise 5 per cent compared to last year's Black Friday week". Good for HLG.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 28, 2022, 08:03 AMIn the seven days ended November 26, shoppers spent $350m. That was down 9.5 per cent on last year
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...KX7SGQ36HPZRE/
Retail stores in Auckland only reopened on 10th Nov last year during the Level 3 lockdown. That probably artificially pumped 2021's figures.
"When compared to pre-Covid-19 levels, however, actual spending was up 1.5%."
Quote from: KW on Nov 28, 2022, 12:30 PMRetail stores in Auckland only reopened on 10th Nov last year during the Level 3 lockdown. That probably artificially pumped 2021's figures.
"When compared to pre-Covid-19 levels, however, actual spending was up 1.5%."
Nice observation KW. 107 days locked up in a form of home detention was brutal for a lot of people's mental health, (it really knocked me around...never been through anything like it before and hope I don't have to ever again), so you are absolutely dead right, people were literally "desperate" to get out and about in November last year and get some much needed retail therapy.
Retailwatch numbers for November out
A few red numbers but no doubt it will be pointed out last November was boom times post lockdown
Total for Nov months was 11% higher than November 2019 - not much growth over 3 years
000000retailwatch.JPG
Not A listed stock but how is private retail really going to go in 2023...
The real story will be in the non listed private retail sector and those stats are the ones we need to look at not just the listed retailers and Winner does a good job of reminding us to stay awake...
will the art buyers and antiques sector be on for a bit of hard time in 2023...
French furniture in bulls?
Art in hamilton ?
Musems under threat nation wide?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/300769832/highend-hamilton-art-gallery-closing-doors-after-40-years-in-business
Xmas rally in the US
doom and Gloom from Ruth the Truth on Tax Payer Talk on recession in 2023... they are talking true carange from eeyore....
Ruth the Truth ...
doom and gloom....
is the eeyore going to trigger a crash of the economy?
IS HLG the only retail stock to survive?
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/taxpayer_talk_xmas
WOW ....record Boxing Day sales
Rádio NZ said New data from payment network company Worldline showed New Zealanders' Boxing Day spending reached record heights this year
All good for Briscoes, WHS, HLG and maybe even Kathmandu
Share prices should go up on news of record sales
Yes cheers to that... hoping for that... sounds grand!!!
like the idea... believing is seeing.... seeing is ....
lets face it abelard had an up hill battle ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Abelard
lets hope this coming year isnt one of them...
if they dont go up...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a__4QgP4F-A
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 27, 2022, 06:14 PMWOW ....record Boxing Day sales
Rádio NZ said New data from payment network company Worldline showed New Zealanders' Boxing Day spending reached record heights this year
All good for Briscoes, WHS, HLG and maybe even Kathmandu
Share prices should go up on news of record sales
Most of any increase in spend is probably just the effect of inflation. Higher revenue doesnt equate to higher profits.
Quote from: KW on Dec 28, 2022, 12:19 PMMost of any increase in spend is probably just the effect of inflation. Higher revenue doesnt equate to higher profits.
It will translate to a LOT higher profit for HLG, mark my words and watch and see on 17 February 2023.
KIWI dollar has worked back some magic as fore talked about by MR B and some commentators have forecast a stronger Kanga later next year.
HLG and MHJ will benefit from stronger currency next year and 17th march 2024 will be the big one to whatch...
Even Brisc and KMD will benefit from stronger currencies.
No one took any notice of eeyore (adrian) at xmas and hit the shops....
does this show how out of touch the GOVT and Reserve banks are with real life?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/boxing-day-has-tills-were-ringing-but-did-it-beat-nz-shops-busiest-day-this-year/SPXSSPPORZFC3K4XITCCLLLNG4/
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 29, 2022, 08:03 AMNo one took any notice of eeyore (adrian) at xmas and hit the shops....
does this show how out of touch the GOVT and Reserve banks are with real life?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/boxing-day-has-tills-were-ringing-but-did-it-beat-nz-shops-busiest-day-this-year/SPXSSPPORZFC3K4XITCCLLLNG4/
My experience doing my Christmas shopping was that the shops were very quiet. Unlike prior years, I had no difficulty in getting a car park at the mall, the shops themselves were not busy, the shelves were fully stocked, and I didnt even have to queue to use the checkouts at places like The Warehouse. I was quite surprised because normally the mall at Christmas is a mad house. Was everyone online shopping?
Quote from: KW on Dec 30, 2022, 10:46 AMMy experience doing my Christmas shopping was that the shops were very quiet. Unlike prior years, I had no difficulty in getting a car park at the mall, the shops themselves were not busy, the shelves were fully stocked, and I didnt even have to queue to use the checkouts at places like The Warehouse. I was quite surprised because normally the mall at Christmas is a mad house. Was everyone online shopping?
That's a good question! I just went and checked our situation. We're a family of four under this roof but gifts were sent elsewhere too - and our collective present shopping but for one item was all done online. The only other physical shopping was at the stupidmarket and even that felt less hideously busy than previous. I do remember this well, as I pointed it out a few times as we meandered the aisles until I finally got a punch in the arm. Dunno if that's representative (the online bit, not the shoulder punch) or not.
Brisc out here in the country MID Waka TOO (waikato) had free parks mid afternoon for boxing day but shop assistants said the big rush was mid morning.
cretainly the stats when they come out will be interesting....
Notice that next week its RAIN again...
but it is LA weather rain season and that could dampen down holiday beach shopping when a lot of people will have gone to the beach after new year...
warehouse group had a shocker but HLG, KMD , BRISC have hopefully feared better as oil is still priced low with china still not ramping up but dropping like flys...
Dont expect europe to charge up for a few years.
Most interesting will be the fuel composites used to generated electricity in the US as high prices for electricity and fuel in the US could impact retail spending and that lag can impact world markets...
Some say DOW and SP has a way to go down yet... YIKES...
if the US and China get HIT hard no markets will be immune...
RetailWatch data for December month came out today
Would have to say the numbers are pretty gloomy looking - core sectors down v December 2021 and verall sales only up from travel and entertainment things. Even clothing was down
I did the old comparison to 2019 trick -- even then the % increases are pretty small when you think it's over 3 years
0000retailwatch.JPG
Thanks for posting this winner...pretty interesting.
JP HI FI result 2nd QTR
sales in AUS and NZ Up...
sure winner will be all over the release of data on the ASX
well winner your EBO has been a winner , sorry about that...
but everything else looks a bit sick....
even with KIP records mall sales..
AUS CPI out and it HOT HOT HOT .....
expect the KIWI to take a hit versus the AUS be interesting to see in the next few weeks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/inflation-how-high-will-new-zealand-go-in-consumer-data-as-cost-of-living-bites/5D5UOS2OSBA3NBK74TIZLZE2GE/
what impact will the after pay fault lines do for the retail spender...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/buy-now-pay-later-provider-zips-shares-fall-amid-fears-it-is-in-cycle-of-death/KUG6CMRMANGLVFVB46AGB3SNBA/
US GDP is out and if there is a FALL OFF A CLIFF the bodies havnt been seen anywhere yet..
US catches a cold and world markets will react..
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/stock-futures-are-flat-as-investors-weigh-latest-corporate-earnings.html
Petrol prices not going up as govt price cuts stay in place
That'll help retail sales
From SCIL announcement on Unlisted today.They are the owners of The Hub mall in Hornby Christchurch.
There has been the usual media discussion (negative) around retail trading patterns for the month of December
leading up to Christmas and many of these have centred around the rhetoric of an impending recessionary
downturn.
It is not my style to cherry pick only good news but I am sure it is a confidence booster to you to know that the
Mall experienced an 8.8% increase in tenancy retail turnover for December 2022 as compared to the previous
December with both anchors enjoying very positive increases. The Hub recorded its highest retail monthly
turnover with the exclusive GST total reaching a significant milestone figure.
KPG also reported solid numbers for its malls. Economists have predicted 18 of the last two recessions.
Tax cuts coming from MR Whippy Chippy but he cant as there is a new theory out for inflation....
which almost make government spending a RISK...
YAT ..... Yet Another Theory,,,,
although its not retail in south pacific AMD's Q1 warning in 10 percent drop in sales is interesting winner() <= 10
Some might see sales decline ....some will blossom
But at the end of the day total retail sales will grow over the next year ...always has always well.
They say only 10% odd of consumers are 'hurt' by recessions etc
hmmm ....
i remember helicopter ben saying ... house prices never go down...
Winner who hasnt been reviewing this document many time as research material.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2IaJwkqgPk
i mean everyone knew this was happening right and you were clued to the screens at 3 AM right?
it can never happen... right ....
the banking system is layer upon layer upon layer of debt....
balance sheets are almost meaningless; a tangled ledger of endless enteries. The ledgers are NOT multi demensional nor multi layered allowing for multiple data views or consolidations, no no no....
Reverse banks have no idea what would happen if people stopped buying houses at MV..its there worst nightmare.
house next door was sold to young plumber at 870 recently... not long ago it was less then 400.... its a 3rd size of the section sub dived on... in other words its a shoe box with a children hut and slide.. Its most attractive feature.... worth 870... IDIOTS.!
They little house was renovated by a builder who lived in it and now the little garden will be overgrown before you know it.
It has access to the long sealed drive but doesnt own it..
he hasnt moved in .... you can see they think everything is fine... house prices never go down right..
seen it before this movie....
everyone said its fine,,,, just fine,.. six months later people looked at me and said what just happened? Joe K says at 2AM NZ time , sometime in late 2007.. will there be contagion? and you knew... its coming to a country near you..
Kath Wood saying Yellen and Summers are saying inflation is going to shock on the down side later this year....
low inflation could even make a come back ...
right well one has to say stuff to stay in the head lines ...
CNBC Squawk box...
wood says by 2030 amazon will have more robots than employees...
inflation be a real problem by then... no inflation?
FED Chair speaking.... only 25..
it all sounds a bit fluffy .... "financial conditions determine POLICY restraint"
looks ike the start of END of the rate hike cycle...
10 YR 3.3 .... shock ...
well the fed will have to really look hard at the data now as Non farm just hit it out of the park....
and they will be to scared to lower the rate...
retail could stay under pressure for a while.
but its back to work in the 10 biggest US cities which means those city centres will be starting to hum again..
workers will have to be at work 4 days a week at the office up from 3.
does that mean less time to ON LINE shop?
FED chair about to speak .... here we go... anticipates,,, ONGOING RATE INCREASES....
Market got it wrong?
"let me say " all these numbers we are throwing around... we are whaaaffling around the data ... AND SOOOOO!
we will continue to Waffle around the data ...
BUT it is likely we will conintue to hike rates ...
"HIKE RATES".....
but we will continue to look at the data ...
Waffle...
3 percent inflation.. gold standard is 2 percent...
GOLD standard....
FED chair meets with other central bank and smaller bankers at BASIL and...
"Its great to know each other in the Crisis"
"CRISIS"!!!!!!!
sorry "in A crisis" "great to know each other in a crisis".....
we can all feel comfortable holding hands in a crisis....
Does it look like a crisis yet?
Market seems to like it... jokes. bike riding...doesnt seem the FED chair is panicking...
hmmm the FED is using english and the question is "IS this a GOOD thing?"
maybe Greenspan was all spin after ll..
and he talks to GP... market moving down...
Interesting question and answer about his 'fair' salary.
YES!!! very calm person in a crisis... hard to know if there is a crsis.
NO MBS being sold down apparently 8 Billion balance sheet...
Ben once said the balance sheet doesnt need to be wound down? Economists who knows what to think...
a 7% increase in minimum wage
might feed through all pay rates )relativity etc)
Oh well prices will just go up even more .... but then treasury experts say increase in minimum wage is not inflationary
Some ask 'what will increasing the minimum wage do to inflation?' The answer: 0.1%, literally next to nothing is what gurus say
Labour are really saying 'how would minimum wage workers face inflation without a wage increase?'
Retailers (and all businesses) will work their way through it .... maybe even increase profits - as some ballooning corporate profits are one of the main reasons for inflation anyway
inflation is suplpy side and demand side this time?
RetailWatch stats for January sales have a lot of red in them
Only hospo / travel things doing OK
0000retailwatch.JPG
crikey... sell the BARN!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVuSYUNAekc
JB HI FI just got HIT and Aussi Kangas look like they heading for the hills..
KMD update looks good...... (heightens expectations for HLG!?)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406617
• Sales momentum has continued in Q2, resulting in record first half sales
• Group total sales for 1H FY23 (unaudited) are expected to be approximately $546 million, an increase of +34% above 1H FY22, with particularly positive trading in Australia.
o Kathmandu sales recovery continues, with total sales +51% above 1H FY22, reflecting a return of travel and tourist-related spend
o Oboz first half sales have rebounded from COVID-related supply constraints last year, growing +124%
o Rip Curl total sales have grown +18%, with strong growth in direct-to-consumer sales, while maintaining wholesale sales levels following strong growth last year
• Group gross margin remains resilient overall, with improved gross margin for the Kathmandu brand
• Underlying 1H FY23 EBITDA(1) is expected to be approximately $45 million, cycling $10.2 million EBITDA in 1H FY22, which included $5.1 million of one-off COVID assistance
From Aussie ......
"The message from business is consumers are holding their ground, even after taking a pummelling from surging prices. But it's anyone's guess how long they can keep taking the blows.
From JB Hi-Fi, Dan Murphys and even car listings group Carsales, a picture is emerging of consumers still willing to spend after surging prices and an uncertain outlook given a slowing economy.
Helping this is a massive $300bn savings cushion built up by consumers through the Covid-19 pandemic, which remains the biggest driver of spending. At the same time shoppers are still catching up after been locked down for all those years."
It would be interesting to know if Kiwi's have built up an equivalent savings cushion.
In a bear market the rally's get sold...
Its great that there is this 300 BN... where is this number broken down?
Brain Sullivan often says Hopium.... hoping its not and its real retail demand...
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 14, 2023, 02:12 PMIts great that there is this 300 BN... where is this number broken down?
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/household-wealth-hits-record-15-trillion-20220623-p5aw10
"Australians continued to add to capital buffers even as the pandemic restrictions eased, adding $40 billion to savings in the March quarter while the savings pool of the rest of the world declined by about $8 billion. Households have accumulated $305 billion in currency and deposits in the past two years.
That comes after about $200 billion was saved in calendar 2021 (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/post-pandemic-war-chest-to-top-200b-20210903-p58oii), with about $25 billion added to household savings in the month of July alone."
Its interesting to compare those countries where people were allowed to keep working (like Australia) during lockdowns, and those that weren't. An anecdotal tale of a small cafe and hotel in Ireland, who was forced to close during the Irish lockdowns. They had a coffee cart, which they were allowed to continue operating out the front of their cafe. They turned over one million pounds during the Covid lockdown, and that enabled them to survive. In NZ of course, that would have been banned too.
yep AUS what , who , where we ae are all banking on....
go AUSSI Go... should the KIWI and the AUS been merged after all...
Yes and business and enterprise was sued and the business man won in NZ.
The first lock down was far to harsh... the AUckland lock down when people had jabs was criminal but try telling the GOVT that.
Water under the bridge now...
TPW the latest to take a share price hammering, down 25% today. Pulling back on investment in new categories (house renovation materials) because there is no more free money. Expect that to be the case with all companies that have unprofitable or new business ventures. Cashflow is King again.
Quote from: KW on Feb 14, 2023, 02:49 PMhttps://www.afr.com/policy/economy/household-wealth-hits-record-15-trillion-20220623-p5aw10
"Australians continued to add to capital buffers even as the pandemic restrictions eased, adding $40 billion to savings in the March quarter while the savings pool of the rest of the world declined by about $8 billion. Households have accumulated $305 billion in currency and deposits in the past two years.
That comes after about $200 billion was saved in calendar 2021 (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/post-pandemic-war-chest-to-top-200b-20210903-p58oii), with about $25 billion added to household savings in the month of July alone."
That's a great article (the AFR is a fine publication). Another great aussie retail focused article for those of you with subscription or know the trick to bypassing the paywall.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/retail-stocks-hit-with-reality-check-as-hawkish-rba-spoils-results-20230209-p5cjc2
But going back to KW's article there was a great bit of Jarden research on the aussie consumer sector published last week that said retail orientated to older consumers will fair best, followed by retail with young consumers, with the worst hit being those w/ middle aged consumers. Those excess savings have been disproportionately captured by older wealthier people who are still feeling pretty chipper about life and spending. The youngest don't have mortgages and are getting wage increases even if feeling pinched by rent and fuel. but its the middle aged with mortgages who are being knocked around the most.
Makes sense to me.
Been reading through various earning announcements lots of CODB pressure above forecast. Clear to me my CODB forecast for glassons was a bit soft - so perhaps 1H FY23 npat probably in the high 20's - plausibly low 30's. Not that it matters one iota - a record result & big lift from the pcp.
hope everyone staying safe and dry.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Feb 14, 2023, 03:40 PMBut going back to KW's article there was a great bit of Jarden research on the aussie consumer sector published last week that said retail orientated to older consumers will fair best, followed by retail with young consumers, with the worst hit being those w/ middle aged consumers. Those excess savings have been disproportionately captured by older wealthier people who are still feeling pretty chipper about life and spending. The youngest don't have mortgages and are getting wage increases even if feeling pinched by rent and fuel. but its the middle aged with mortgages who are being knocked around the most.
Makes sense to me.
In addition to lower mortgage payments over the covid period, a lot of consumers with children benefitted greatly from savings in childcare by virtue of their working from home. Now they are being asked to return to the office, and childcare expenses are back along with higher mortgage rates. Childcare is very expensive in Australia, especially if you don't qualify for the Govt subsidy.
"Without childcare subsidies (CCS), we would pay $950 out-of-pocket per week, which was more than our $615 rent per week. However, with CCS, we would pay $520 per week out of pocket, which was still close to the cost of rent. "
Spend Spend Spend .....
"The rise in spending was led by an $80m increase in the durable category, which included furniture, hardware and appliances."
Now industrials are up in the US...
Winner() was wondering off somewhere yesterday as retail stats came out?
and with all those flooded homes insurance payouts will be spent not just on Car Car Cars...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131297342/the-things-we-wont-stop-buying-even-when-were-tightening-our-belts
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131346311/retail-sales-fall-4-in-december-quarter-as-consumers-feel-the-pinch
Retail sales totalled $30.7 billion in the last quarter, down 4% on the same period last year and 0.6% on the September quarter, according to Stats NZ's latest retail trade survey.
The fall was driven by a 15% drop in sales of hardware, building and garden supplies (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131297342/the-things-we-wont-stop-buying-even-when-were-tightening-our-belts). Sales of cars and their parts also slowed, falling 10%.
While the overall trend was downward, sales volumes grew in the hospitality sector, with food and beverage services up 14%, and accommodation services up 28% compared with the same period last year.
HN AUS sales down .... ooops
DId it all go to Retail? ......
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/winston-peters-what-happened-to-the-14-billion-covid-recovery-money/K4TWPEB75JASBFOFY3SNI2BUJI/
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 28, 2023, 12:19 PMHN AUS sales down .... ooops
jeez ...Harvey Norman NZ saes down 12% in December quarter
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 28, 2023, 12:39 PMDId it all go to Retail? ......
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/winston-peters-what-happened-to-the-14-billion-covid-recovery-money/K4TWPEB75JASBFOFY3SNI2BUJI/
Mahuta's mates. And Stuff.
I can hear Basil breathing a sigh of relief ....
"Australian retail sales rose 1.9 per cent in January, from December, beating forecasts of a gain of 1.5 per cent, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed.
This follows a 4 per cent fall in December. The figure was revised from a drop of 3.9 per cent initially reported."
"Harvey Norman NZ saes down 12% in December quarter"
yep... maybe just HN thing.. someone else had better sales discounts.
a very good indian investor analyst thinks SP 500 down 20 percent over the next 24 months...
Cripes...
Quote from: KW on Feb 28, 2023, 01:41 PMI can hear Basil breathing a sigh of relief ....
"Australian retail sales rose 1.9 per cent in January, from December, beating forecasts of a gain of 1.5 per cent, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed.
This follows a 4 per cent fall in December. The figure was revised from a drop of 3.9 per cent initially reported."
And punters are loving buying new clothes .....must look nice eh
From that ABS stuff
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 6.5% ($181.0m) in January, in seasonally adjusted terms.
And I reckon the momentum will continue through winter
China manufacturing index out its outpacing pre bug levels.
Indicators are for a glut of product by year end.
Some discussion of disinflationary pressure building for 2024.
These SP handles this year could be bargain lows and the rest of the decade is as DR S has said. A New bull market as in 2013 to 2020.
Tony Alexander says -
Consumes back into their shells
My second survey this year of people's spending intentions for the coming 3-6 months has revealed a fresh retreat. A net 37% of people plan cutting spending (except on groceries) from 30% last month. The result may be biased downward by the continuing strong focus on devastation from the recent flooding events and implications for people's lives and locations. Nonetheless, prospects for retailers remain poor. But there is still clearly a "revenge travel" factor in play for heading offshore, whereas domestic travelling intentions have reached a record low.
https://www.tonyalexander.nz/wp-content/uploads/TV-Spending-Plans-Survey-March-2023.pdf
Winner, I presume a good portion of that 37% are homeowners with a mortgage due for renewal this year, and who have a young family that have to be fed no matter what. I feel for those people. Food and groceries have to be the priority. Clothing needs can be stretched out a bit.
Retail Watch sales data for February out
Feb sales 6% up Feb last year and year to Feb +7% v pcp
Just as well for hospitality, fun and travel stuff otherwise a lot of red numbers - and thats in $ terms and not 'volume'
0000retailwaych.JPG
Top retailers.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/appliance-shops-big-winners-in-consumer-group-peoples-choice-awards/TX2CRCBAANDKLIUWG3CCPEG55M/
Everyone travelling Winner()... wonder what AUS travel is.
AUS travel stocks are up.
WHS got a shellacking..
Hey Winner() MS office Word opens and converts PDF documents into the Word VBA model.
Now this may sound a little bit abstract but CHAT AI does have a future but not being your best buddy which we can see doesnt not work.
But CHAT AI base source code is being moved into Office.
Potential here there will be a case where financial statement documents once converted into VBA Word object structures can be fed to OPEN AI for stats processing.
There is something to be explored here .
For example we are going to try this for Dividend statements with VBA WORD,
We already process the very very basic OMC files turning them into full trial balances that are perfectly balanced..
when you trading volume your back ends need to be fully automated.
Come on Winner() its all about retail and the detail...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-data-expected-to-show-economy-in-reverse/2TULEGCPYBGQBK3UXVNVEJAVCY/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3KaI5QYPjE
Aussie, but good for NZ stocks with Aussie market
FsRFFQ_aMAEZLMd.png
Clothing and soft goods up a whopping 41.4% on pre-pandemic level's of February 2020.
WOW, aren't we supposed to be in a recession ;)
Glassons Au must be trucking along very nicely indeed. No wonder they are concentrating their capex on expansion of that division.
Interesting that these big retailers dont know what in their stock control in store ..
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/22/how-ai-powered-robots-are-changing-retail.html
looks like there is a delay in whats in store and whats in the warehouses.
turns out Chocolate and lipstick stocks were defensive in the US... well who would have thought....
next time... buy that hershey bar...
Retail Watch sales data for April out
Cafes and travel etc still doing well ..... listed retailers could be struggling a bit
00000retwat.JPG
Last autumn weekend for travel or maybe one more but winter is heading in fast now ..
and is it time to realise that as far as investing goes the big wide world is WEAR its at for retail and just maybe the discount to the other currencies, the USD, the PD and the EUR are now part of the mix.
But if the country is just POOR errrr then your picks of stocks to invest in just got smaller on the NZX and exposure to AUS is now a must...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/132022958/damien-grant-we-arent-in-a-cost-of-living-crisis-were-just-poor
well looks like stock markets down under may find it hard going for a while to come...
maybe its time to get back to work and forget about fast money ... real work is where the gains are going to be made.
Business is where its at...
its a stock pickers market again then... Stocks with low debt , high dividend payout and well controlled costs and that means building proper models with data management and tracking them...
back to the old days of boring back office building ...
dont think AI is actually going to be much help until companies release data in a standard readable form..
not the current generation of glossy gossip ..
predicted NZ GDP....out to 2028...
NZ consumers still down in the dumps
85E4D930-8D97-47C0-81E8-676B19386497.jpeg
Yes - and in an environment with record low unemployment and job losses haven't even properly started yet.
Retail tough now, just wait another 12 months...
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on May 26, 2023, 08:23 PMYes - and in an environment with record low unemployment and job losses haven't even properly started yet.
Retail tough now, just wait another 12 months...
Wise suggestion and always helpful - and who knows, in 12 months we might either live through the next boom, be stuck in a long recession - and whatever it is we still will wonder what the next 12 months will bring :)
RetailWatch May data below
In total consumer spend hanging in there with cafes etc and travel giving it a boost
0000ret.JPG
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 09, 2023, 09:55 AMRetailWatch May data below
In total consumer spend hanging in there with cafes etc and travel giving it a boost
0000ret.JPG
I guess the price gauging from our super markets helps as well. I always knew that these guys just want our best ;) :
Goldman's tweaks view on retailers - issued Thursday - should be similar for NZ......
The investment bank tweaked their views on the retail sector today and it had a decent bearing on performance. Their Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) model which is a macro-driven construct that looks to forecast spending pattens is flagging a softening backdrop.
In that environment, they reviewed their outlook for 4 domestic discretionary retailers Premier Investments (PMV) – SELL, Super Retail (SUL) – BUY, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) NEUTRAL and Harvey Norman (HVN) NEUTRAL.
Heads up, the charts of prime retailers in Australia are looking really sick. The lovely uptrends they had been in are now well and truly broken. Clearly the market has suddenly decided that an Australian recession is on the cards after all.
LOV not getting much love from shareholders eh. Classic peacocking stores where the young ones buy cheap shiny things to make themselves look sparkly, my granddaughter is a big fan. To be fair, trading on 26.6 times FY23 forecast earnings, whereas HLG for example on about 10 times.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/LOVISA-HOLDINGS-LIMITED-19157145/financials/
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/investors-flee-consumer-stocks-as-economy-slows-20230608-p5df5l
Fund managers are convinced the Reserve Bank's grip on a soft landing is slipping, triggering a scramble out of stocks linked to consumer spending, and mounting a challenge to its objective of keeping the economy on an "even keel".
Evidence of the slowdown can be seen in how hard retailers are discounting and the fact they're bringing forward end-of-financial-year sales," said Chris Prunty, from hedge fund QVG, at the sidelines of the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit. "Feedback from companies suggests the consumer hit the wall some time in April or May. Anything in apparel is ground zero but all discretionary categories are likely to be impacted."
"There have been half a dozen downgrades, but there will probably be more," said David Moberley from ClearLife Capital. "It's really the younger demographic that has really been impacted by cost inflation – rents and utilities," he said. "At this stage people are spending on travel but at the expense of apparel."
It's not just mortgage holders who are feeling the pinch: young people have become a flash point for sharemarket bears, as students and youth customers are crunched by rising rents and higher education loans.
Westpac Australia card spend tracking (eeekly) reports ' Adjusting for regular seasonal variations, quarterly growth momentum remains firmly in negative territory, suggesting the stalling evident in Q1 may be followed by an outright contraction in Q2.'
Get your old sowing machines out and start peddling ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132237943/never-been-a-downturn-like-this-businesses-battle-costofliving-crunch
It is to be fully expected that people will pull back from "nice to have" but completely unnecessary things in tougher economic times. This is not rocket science, people shift to more value brands in tougher times. Red sheds at WHS are doing well, a classic case in point. If I owned a bunch of retail stocks, I would be concerned how well MHJ, (chart looking sick) will hold up in tougher times.
Fancy jewelry is something I think has a very strong discretionary element to it.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 11, 2023, 09:21 AMGet your old sowing machines out and start peddling ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132237943/never-been-a-downturn-like-this-businesses-battle-costofliving-crunch
Just media making a mountain out of a molehill
Most punters still spending as much if not more than previous ...don't see Stuff writing about that eh waltz
Go get those STATS Winner() !!!
Gosh could be some real bargain on the market this year... maybe its now..
what does a recession look like then....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132261497/banks-split-on-whether-nz-recession-will-be-confirmed-on-thursday
and is immigration powering up 2024...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300899146/the-property-market-is-about-to-pick-up-steam--but-dont-jump-in-right-away
Quote from: KW on Jun 09, 2023, 02:26 PMhttps://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/investors-flee-consumer-stocks-as-economy-slows-20230608-p5df5l
Fund managers are convinced the Reserve Bank's grip on a soft landing is slipping, triggering a scramble out of stocks linked to consumer spending, and mounting a challenge to its objective of keeping the economy on an "even keel".
Evidence of the slowdown can be seen in how hard retailers are discounting and the fact they're bringing forward end-of-financial-year sales," said Chris Prunty, from hedge fund QVG, at the sidelines of the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit. "Feedback from companies suggests the consumer hit the wall some time in April or May. Anything in apparel is ground zero but all discretionary categories are likely to be impacted."
"There have been half a dozen downgrades, but there will probably be more," said David Moberley from ClearLife Capital. "It's really the younger demographic that has really been impacted by cost inflation – rents and utilities," he said. "At this stage people are spending on travel but at the expense of apparel."
It's not just mortgage holders who are feeling the pinch: young people have become a flash point for sharemarket bears, as students and youth customers are crunched by rising rents and higher education loans.
Good article - a few others below.
Nice to know that I am now looking less fringe - with company financials and MSM now reporting on things I've been saying for a while.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/wilson-s-says-avoid-retail-stocks-amid-goods-spending-recession-20230530-p5dcc2
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/minimum-wage-rise-will-push-up-prices-put-jobs-at-risk-gerry-harvey-20230604-p5ddsc
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-rba-is-taking-australia-to-a-precipice-20230528-p5dbug
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/consumer-crunch-flattens-adairs-20230602-p5dde8
Perma Bears!!!!!
The sun will come up again!!
The recent burst in retail shows what people really want to DO!!!!
They wanr ro SHOP... they have a list of things they want and WAIT THERE IS MORE..
They have a list with MORE on it...
It may take a year or two to emerge from the retail winter but when they do it will be like TRAVEL.
Travel stocks are recovering and you will soon feel very frustrated at hearing nothing but bad news.
Next april you will be rebelling!!!
These people are negative on LIFE!!
Rage against the RAIN!!!!
This century (at least) an annual basis total retail sales in NZ have never declined ...never been less than pcp .....never gone backwards (in nominal terms)
Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend for month of May out today
Total Retail (exc services) +3.3% v pcp / Core Retail (exc fuel / mv) +5.2%
Durables (non food and consumables) +0.9% and Apparel -3.9%
Durables and Apparel trends interesting. Listed retailers in this group.
Trends below - I'd read it as that Durables growth will remain flat / soften a bit until reached the pre-covid trend line. Apparel been quite buoyant of late but now weakening and possibly will drop back to the pre-covid trend line over the course of the next 12 months
0000card.JPG
Hardly the big collapse in spending on apparel some have been predicting.
Probably bought a lot of RAIN COATS as it was the wettie summer in History...
Umbrella's... ect... other wise you need less clothes in summer...
Market didn't seem to like those Stats retail data today
Briscoes down 2.3% and 52 week low
Warehouse down 2.4% and just above 52 week low
HLG down 2.2% and below 6 bucks
Kathmandu / MHJ global focus but still in doldrums....as is RBD to a certain extent.
But it'll all be OK later in week with a +ve GDP number and no recession
Just the after shock but dont worry the GOVT Blow out Budget will hold GDP up... IRD Company Tax receipts are down.
Biggest trade deficit in current history...
Chloe will save us with her visionary tax policies that will stimulate vast growth in the economy. ::) ::)
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 12, 2023, 06:30 PMMarket didn't seem to like those Stats retail data today
But it'll all be OK later in week with a +ve GDP number and no recession
Probably your dry sense of humour that I've come to appreciate.
Based on what I have seen in recent times and feedback from the coalface with clients there is very little doubt in my mind we have been in a recession since the beginning of Q4 in 2022. I have been investing on that basis and will be surprised and pleased if I'm wrong if we somehow squeezed some extremely modest growth out of this sour puss economy in Q1 2023... but I genuinely feel we are ~ 8.5 months into this since 1 October and probably a similar or slightly longer period to go. My best guess is we're about 40-45% of the way through this recession.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 12, 2023, 08:38 PMBased on what I have seen in recent times and feedback from the coalface with clients there is very little doubt in my mind we have been in a recession since the beginning of Q4 in 2022. [snip] My best guess is we're about 40-45% of the way through this recession.
I'm not seeing it yet. Some of us predicted no recession per your 2023 prediction thread (which we should reprise) - we all hope that prediction is correct. My anecdotes: larger clients who are upstream of retail are still showing year on year revenue growth with limited or no significant impact on margins. Smaller clients are a mixed bag with some services showing growth, while 2 property sub-sectors have anecdotally collapsed (being architecture and interior design which have a greater exposure to the rest of NZ). That does not bode well for some property sub-sectors in the short term. Hawkes Bay may be slightly insulated from a recession given the post-Cyclone rebuild hence the reason I'm not seeing it.....yet.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 12, 2023, 08:38 PMProbably your dry sense of humour that I've come to appreciate.
Based on what I have seen in recent times and feedback from the coalface with clients there is very little doubt in my mind we have been in a recession since the beginning of Q4 in 2022. I have been investing on that basis and will be surprised and pleased if I'm wrong if we somehow squeezed some extremely modest growth out of this sour puss economy in Q1 2023... but I genuinely feel we are ~ 8.5 months into this since 1 October and probably a similar or slightly longer period to go. My best guess is we're about 40-45% of the way through this recession.
Wow - This would be amazing news! We spent already 6 months in this wannabe recession and you say we are nearly half through, this means only another 6 months (or so) to go.
Given that share markets are forward looking and typically start rising 6 months ahead of the economical data - this means the right moment to invest is: Exactly now!
So - if you are right - now is the time to empty your cash accounts and go loooong ...
I wish your calculation was how I see it....I really do but If I'm right and the data confirms we're in a recession, it started at the beginning of Q4 in 2023, (1 October) so we'll be 8.5 months into it by mid June on Thursday. 8.5 months / 0.425, my mid point, means my guess is the length of this thing is about 20 months. That makes it another 11.5 months, call it a year to go. I have no data to go on so this really is guesswork on my part but it makes sense to me that the recession would last well into 2024 before the Reserve Bank starts to ease monetary conditions. All that suggests to me the remainder of 2023 will be a very challenging time for the NZX. All bets are off if a Labour lead coalition win a third term. :'( :'(
The above, especially the scary prospect of another term for Labour to really get stuck into their extreme left leaning ways you know they are dying to do with the Greens and the Māori party and the confirmed downtrend the NZX has been in for some time now is why I am cautious.
If National and Act form the next Govt in October that will probably be the trigger point for me to think about reviewing my portfolio settings.
I note spending on used cars held up well yesterday's retail data ;)
Apparel not quite so well but the value end of the clothing market that looks cool and is affordable is likely to be more resilient in my opinion.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 13, 2023, 10:23 AMI wish your calculation was how I see it....I really do but If I'm right and the data confirms we're in a recession, it started at the beginning of Q4 in 2023, (1 October) so we'll be 8.5 months into it by mid June on Thursday. 8.5 months / 0.425, my mid point, means my guess is the length of this thing is about 20 months. That makes it another 11.5 months, call it a year to go. I have no data to go on so this really is guesswork on my part but it makes sense to me that the recession would last well into 2024 before the Reserve Bank starts to ease monetary conditions. All that suggests to me the remainder of 2023 will be a very challenging time for the NZX. All bets are off if a Labour lead coalition win a third term. :'( :'(
The above, especially the scary prospect of another term for Labour to really get stuck into their extreme left leaning ways you know they are dying to do with the Greens and the Māori party and the confirmed downtrend the NZX has been in for some time now is why I am cautious.
If National and Act form the next Govt in October that will probably be the trigger point for me to think about reviewing my portfolio settings.
I note spending on used cars held up well yesterday's retail data ;)
Apparel not quite so well but the value end of the clothing market that looks cool and is affordable is likely to be more resilient in my opinion.
Well, lets face it - nobody knows.
Personally I am not sure whether I am more afraid of the extremists on the hard right (gun lobby and conspiracy theorists pumping ACT) or of the extremists on the Left (the Greenies seem to get more and more loony on the day), but I still trust that the next NZ government won't make a huge difference for the future direction of the stock markets. Lets face it, they never do. The lead will continue to come from the US, China and world politics in general. The impact of the next election on our stock market will be something like an index inclusion or exclusion for an individual stock ... some fun for traders, but not much more.
But anyway - the two year recession you are predicting is a long one. Admittedly, if you use your own criteria to measure it, you always will be right :) ; But still - did we ever have such a long recession before in NZ? Why do you think this time will be so particularly terrible given that only weeks ago you exulted in predicting an amazing future for HLG? What changed?
From my perspective - I do see the property market bottoming out right now, I see the country in full employment and I see the immigration valve full open. Plenty of people with money coming in to buy (or rent) properties and buy new clothes, furniture, cars. Not quite sure, where this terrible downturn is supposed to come from, but sure - black swans events are around for a long time, and since the discovery of Australia we even know that there are black swans, i.e. we should find a better name for these events :) :
The soft landing economic scenario is plausible which could lead to a shallow but protracted recession as the RBNZ keeps rates higher for longer in its torrid battle against inflation. In that sort of environment, I would expect that all those predicting retail to fall off a cliff will be wrong.
However this plays out I expect the strength of the brands and the value equation of companies like HLG and TRA, (customers are shifting to more value brands) will see their sales be resilient and they are poised to continue growing as in due course, the economy recovers.
We'll know more on Thursday about how the economy is tracking.
Time flys when your having no growth economy.. 2 QTR in technical recession.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300905413/inflation-will-remain-high-for-some-time-and-interest-rate-increases-cant-be-ruled-out-imf-warns
One thing is a constant every time you walk into your FAV retail store... KMD, RIP CURL, ROD and GUN, Mac Pac, may be Boarder Town.
You just want to BUY SOMETHING... its just nature at work!!!
This week its RIP CURL at the MOUNT and a little shopping for Polish Champagne Glasses in Antiques town for the mid winter Bash in the Waka Too.
SHOP People you know you want to.
Broker Citi has taken a second look at the valuation of jewellery retailer Lovisa and weak consumer confidence to downgrade its rating on the stock from neutral to sell.
It also warned of headwinds from minimum wage rises to slash its price target by 38 per cent to $16.
Lovisa shares have plunged 27 per cent over the last month and last closed at $18.81.
Man, retail is puking right now.
Recession confirmed as I predicted. Looks like a pretty shallow one at this stage with 0.7% decline in Q4 2022 and 0.1% in Q1 2023. Soft landing looking more likely than a hard one. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/new-zealand-officially-in-recession-as-gdp-falls-for-second-quarter/ar-AA1cyH3L?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f49fd29055ee45e4a083467b4528c57e&ei=12
March quarter GDP was 2.2% higher than March 2022 (in 2010 dollars)..... not too bad
Add inflation in nominal terms GDP lot higher
GDP print bit of a non-event but media will love
Punters still out buying millions of dollars of stuff so the likes of Rod will still be pretty happy
I think there's a pretty widespread shift towards value brands and outlets.
Couldn't help noticing in Briscoes latest T.V. advertising they've roped in Suzanne Paul to give Tammy support and try and convince shoppers their "sales" are the real deal when it comes to value for money. Suzanne Paul who we all know as the Queen of direct T.V. advertising says something like "and you can't beat that" at the end of the add in support of Tammy's assertions of fabulous deals.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 15, 2023, 05:20 PMI think there's a pretty widespread shift towards value brands and outlets.
Couldn't help noticing in Briscoes latest T.V. advertising they've roped in Suzanne Paul to give Tammy support and try and convince shoppers their "sales" are the real deal when it comes to value for money. Suzanne Paul who we all know as the Queen of direct T.V. advertising says something like "and you can't beat that" at the end of the add in support of Tammy's assertions of fabulous deals.
Is that a 'sign' of desperation? :D ;D
Yes but Winner() have you been SHOPPING tis week or your GANG!!!
Have Splashed out on champagne glasses for the Mid Winter Bash...
Over priced polish crystal...
No credible economist I know defines a recession as two negative quarters. People who adopt that approach are either lazy thinkers or down right stupid. Quote Professor Arthur Grimes
Media love it though ......did you see the big red arrow pointing down on TV news last night and Jessica raving on showing she's possibly one of the stupid ones.
NZ TV?
Winner() is there still an NZ TV News?
Gosh... OK ... BIG RED ARROWS!!!! oh MY... well i suppose if Taupo erupts there has to be a way to tell every one before they panic...
Ok all you PREPPERS out there off to BRISC to shop for all your needs and the WHS and MITRE 10.
Be prepared people, BE VERY PREPARED!!!
Retail in the provinces ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/farmers-worry-about-huge-costs-imf-assesses-nz-economy/NYAHDHPWKVGCBEQYPBR2PDGALA/
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 16, 2023, 10:48 AMRetail in the provinces ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/farmers-worry-about-huge-costs-imf-assesses-nz-economy/NYAHDHPWKVGCBEQYPBR2PDGALA/
Guess that guy will be one of the ones that Labour want to force off their land, with the closure of 25% of farms in order to meet emissions targets. What they forget is that the towns economy goes with those farmers. Places like Timaru, Ashburton and Amberley (to name but a few) exist to service the farming industry, they have no other source of income. When the farms go, so too will those small towns. And when the towns go, the remaining farms will find it difficult to attract workers, so they will soon fail too.
In the central WAKA TOO there are a lot of small to mid sized country towns that are dependent on Farming INCLUDING HAMILTON....
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 16, 2023, 09:19 AMNo credible economist I know defines a recession as two negative quarters. People who adopt that approach are either lazy thinkers or down right stupid. Quote Professor Arthur Grimes
Media love it though ......did you see the big red arrow pointing down on TV news last night and Jessica raving on showing she's possibly one of the stupid ones.
And Robbo makes a statement that we are probably out of recession before one was confirmed. Is he proving Arthur Grimes position right.
When is the next quarter released, before or after October 14
GDP is a broad measure of the country's economic activity.
NZ's GDP for year to March 2003 was $279.2 billion (real in 2009/2010 prices .... ie inflation eliminated)
This is higher than Sept 2022 and has never been higher - a record in fact
But we are in recession - weird eh
Economic growth might be slowing but it's not going backwards ..... and inflaton in nominal terms some might say its booming.
Falling GDP two quarters in a row meets the technical definition of a recession but Q1 2023 by the barest of margins, (0.1%) and could easily be revised to be flat or very slightly positive in due course. Soft landing looking much more likely now than a hard one.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 17, 2023, 03:51 PMFalling GDP two quarters in a row meets the technical definition of a recession but Q1 2023 by the barest of margins, (0.1%) and could easily be revised to be flat or very slightly positive in due course. Soft landing looking much more likely now than a hard one.
They use seasonally adjusted numbers to come to that conclusion
Currently in real terms GDP is not falling (eliminating inflation impacts) ..the economy is still expanding
Stuff this seasonally adjusted stuff ......just as well outfits like TRA don't report seasonally adjusted earnings ...they possibly be in an earnings recession at the moment and hoping for a soft landing.
From:
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/122562/us-sentiment-improves-japan-holds-rates-singapore-exports-slump-sweden-faces
"Oddly, New Zealand may not actually be in a real recession despite the dodgy "two quarters rule" that is more media hype than an actual economic measure."
Responding to a question in the comments the author had thus to say:
"In 1974, the US economist Julius Shiskin described a recession as `two consecutive quarters of declining growth'. That definition has gained traction since because it is simple enough for anyone to understand. But even Shiskin realised there is a lot more to to it than that simplified shorthand. You can only really tell after the event if there has been a recession. The US doesn't use the Shiskin rule. It uses a much more broad set of data to decide as part of its monitoring of business cycles.
The easiest way to understand the issue is to realise that announcements of GDP are estimates, estimates that get progressively revised. In New Zealand those revisions happen continuously and can span 5 to 10 quarters (obviously less invasive as time goes on).
Almost certainly the announced Q1-2023 -0.1% dip will be revised, just as the Q4-2022 drop was revised last week. (The Q4-2022 fall was revised to be smaller in the Q1-2023 release.) If the same happens in the Q2-2023 GDP data (as some think it will), the -0.1% could easily become a positive. So then it won't be two quarters of decline. This is a pretty crude way of deciding. In NZ neither Stats NZ nor the RBNZ use the two-quarters definition. We will only really know a year or so down the track whether the shifts in employment, output, consumption, exports and imports, etc. really caused our economy to shrink in real terms.
A 'real recession' won't be known for some time yet. And the data released so far is far from conclusive we are in one on a national economy basis. Some regions? yes, probably. Some industries? yes probably. But overall? I have my doubts."
And more:
" All reported GDP growth numbers are inflation-adjusted (so, 'real'). You have to deep into the data to find the nominal numbers. You really only need nominal numbers when you use GDP as the comparison base to unadjusted data (like debt).
Per capita is the better version for some things."
Good one onemootpoint
A 'myth' can be circulated for so long it becomes 'fact' and as lazy people we accept it and often miss the real story
The myth that eating plenty of carrots can make you see at night has interesting origins,
Any way you slice and dice this it looks like we're coming in for a nice smooth and soft landing this spring / summer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeiF5Asqy00&t=5s Lot of fun that floatplane at Taupo.
Cool and affordable brands like Glassons are going to do just fine.
If the reason for the low unemployment rate is because everyone is voluntarily quitting and leaving for better jobs in Australia, is it still a recession? Asking for a friend, one of the net 105,000 people who have left NZ in the last 3.5 months.
Quote from: KW on Jun 18, 2023, 09:46 PMIf the reason for the low unemployment rate is because everyone is voluntarily quitting and leaving for better jobs in Australia, is it still a recession? Asking for a friend, one of the net 105,000 people who have left NZ in the last 3.5 months.
Always wondering who is making up your immigration numbers?
Last official numbers I have seen show still a large (though seasonally reducing) immigration surplus over the last 12 months. Something like 70k people more in than out over the year by end of March.
Confirmation bias?
Now since we are talking retail here MHJ up over a dollar... A DOLLAR!!!
what is going on here!!!!
Its a RECESSION people!!!
for goodness sake!!!!
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 19, 2023, 10:15 AMAlways wondering who is making up your immigration numbers?
Last official numbers I have seen show still a large (though seasonally reducing) immigration surplus over the last 12 months. Something like 70k people more in than out over the year by end of March.
Confirmation bias?
Stats NZ doesnt actually know the immigration number, they use a computer generated model to estimate it based off Customs data. If after 16 months, people who have left the country havent returned, or people who have arrived havent left, they go back and adjust their "estimate" against the actual number (with people still here/gone after 16 months assumed to be a permanent migration).
I simply collate the actual daily Customs data, to see where the tide is flowing. When the borders opened last Sept there was a flood of people into the country (101,000 net) but that only lasted until February. From March onwards, there has been a large flow of people leaving the country (105,000 net). Thats the neat trick with the Govt using "year to date" numbers, they can just highlight what happened 9 months ago and pretend its still happening without providing any up to date data.
Another day, another Aussie retail profit warning
Leading value apparel specialty retailer Best & Less Group Holdings Limited (BLG or the Company) (ASX:BST) today provides an update on trading for the period ending 18 June 2023.
Since the Company's most recent trading update on 17 May 2023, trading conditions have continued to soften, with sales and foot traffic lagging the prior year.
For the five trading weeks from 15 May to 18 June, total sales were -11.7% or $9.0 million below the prior corresponding period (PCP) and LFL sales were -13.2% below the PCP (stores: -12.5%, online: -19.6%). Through 24 trading weeks in H2 FY23, LFL sales were -4.5% below the PCP (stores: -2.0%, online: -18.6%).
Quote from: KW on Jun 20, 2023, 04:48 PMAnother day, another Aussie retail profit warning
Leading value apparel specialty retailer Best & Less Group Holdings Limited (BLG or the Company) (ASX:BST) today provides an update on trading for the period ending 18 June 2023.
Since the Company's most recent trading update on 17 May 2023, trading conditions have continued to soften, with sales and foot traffic lagging the prior year.
For the five trading weeks from 15 May to 18 June, total sales were -11.7% or $9.0 million below the prior corresponding period (PCP) and LFL sales were -13.2% below the PCP (stores: -12.5%, online: -19.6%). Through 24 trading weeks in H2 FY23, LFL sales were -4.5% below the PCP (stores: -2.0%, online: -18.6%).
Interesting to see that these profit warnings typically seem to come from companies hardly anybody would buy from anyway. When was the last time you went into a Postie Plus - for me it must be more than a decade ago (and only one visit because they opened a new shop, which turned out to be as disappointing as the rest)?
But sure - people have clearly less money to throw away these days.
I actually agree with you re the Postie stores. I did used to shop there from time to time, many years ago, but these days it feels more like walking into a $2 store than a clothing store. Has always puzzled me why, as Postie and The Warehouse are the only budget clothing stores we have here. No Kmart. I would have thought there was more than enough business for them both, but it would seem not.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 21, 2023, 09:34 AMInteresting to see that these profit warnings typically seem to come from companies hardly anybody would buy from anyway. When was the last time you went into a Postie Plus - for me it must be more than a decade ago (and only one visit because they opened a new shop, which turned out to be as disappointing as the rest)?
But sure - people have clearly less money to throw away these days.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 21, 2023, 09:34 AMInteresting to see that these profit warnings typically seem to come from companies hardly anybody would buy from anyway.
PMV is considered the best retailer in Australia. David Jones is an institution. LOV is a high flyer. All have said the same. Its coming from all corners.
Quote from: Untamed on Jun 21, 2023, 09:46 AMHas always puzzled me why, as Postie and The Warehouse are the only budget clothing stores we have here. No Kmart. I would have thought there was more than enough business for them both, but it would seem not.
There are 29 Kmart stores in NZ.
Not sure what your point is.
Kmart, The Warehouse and Postie were all pretty similar when they first opened. Low cost, affordable, everyday clothing. Our local Postie store was always busy back then, but at some point they seemed to have a change of direction in terms of what they were selling. Reduction in clothing and increase in "other stuff" and they have been going downhill ever since.
A bit like Smith City. I have no idea how that company is even still in business. You can walk into their store here and there is a good chance you will be the only customer in the building.
Quote from: KW on Jun 21, 2023, 11:04 AMThere are 29 Kmart stores in NZ.
https://www.kmart.co.nz/search/?searchTerm=pet
K Mart have More than 400 items of affordable pet care.
No need to get "fleeced" at your local Animates store
Got to be a few good things in there for my new best friend.
"If you want a friend...get a dog" Gordon Gekko Wall Street.
Quote from: Untamed on Jun 21, 2023, 11:46 AMNot sure what your point is.
you stated that there was no Kmart here. that is clearly wrong
Quote from: Basil on Jun 21, 2023, 12:05 PMhttps://www.kmart.co.nz/search/?searchTerm=pet
K Mart have More than 400 items of affordable pet care.
No need to get "fleeced" at your local Animates store
Got to be a few good things in there for my new best friend.
"If you want a friend...get a dog" Gordon Gekko Wall Street.
Kmart is great for pet stuff. And kitchen stuff. And clothes. Its a shame that it always looks like a tip though and half of the stuff you want to buy is never in stock so you have to go home and order it online.
No I didn't. I said there was no KMart "here" as in, where I live.
Quote from: KW on Jun 21, 2023, 01:19 PMyou stated that there was no Kmart here. that is clearly wrong
Quote from: Untamed on Jun 21, 2023, 02:39 PMI said there was no KMart "here" as in, where I live.
Unless one lived at KMart then that would apply to everyone. ;D
You know what I meant :P
Quote from: Ferg on Jun 21, 2023, 03:01 PMUnless one lived at KMart then that would apply to everyone. ;D
https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/ubs-downgrades-4-asx-retail-stocks-revises-earnings-profiles-of-others
Gosh, had a look at the share price graph of UNI...has that been taken out the back of the woodshed or what!
Down from more than $6 at the end of January to $2.59 yesterday.
I don't know enough about their history, balance sheet strength, the strength of their brands or frankly anything else but I do question if it was ever worth the lofty PE's it was trading at a while back.
I do recall debating, (think it was with the southern Moose) about whether at the time it was worth twice the PE of HLG that trades in the same sector. Seems I was right. UNI has more than halved since earlier this year and HLG up more that 20% since then inclusive of 24 cent April dividend.
So what about the current pricing situation then ?
According to market screener 10 analysts cover it and the average recommendation is BUY.
PE now is 8. I vaguely recall its a fairly young company and has a fair bit of debt.
Maybe the PE relativity, (HLG approx 10) between this and HLG now more correctly represents the risks and opportunities.
(HLG has no debt and a history going back many decades)
Maybe if UNI is now a counter cyclical BUY so is HLG ?
PMV is on a P/E of 13 and a 4.9% div yield.
This is probably the bit where recessions send stocks down to single digit P/Es
Yes UNI down to sub 8x PE for FY23 and more crucially FY24, relative to consensus estimates. The market is telling us it has no faith in consensus estimates as downgrade cycles manifest themselves over time across a number of broker downgrades. It has about 1.1x net debt to EBITDA post its acquisition of Thrills. A good retailer with sound margins and returns on capital, shifting product into higher margin own brands, and no NZ baggage. Only been listed a few years and previously PE owned. A more aggressive store rollout strategy but less so than say LOV (for a chuckle have a read of LOV's CEOs remuneration agreement per the AR and how closely it is tied to store rollouts). I'm not keen on store rollouts in this environment and reckon savvy retailers will be / ought to be looking at store closures and getting a tight handle on costs in a patchy and inconsistent trading environment. Automation of DC's must be part of the equation given labour rises.
Quite liquid relative to HLG whose SP like the WHS's tends to lag reported dividends and isn't particularly reactive to macro news flow - SP tends to change well after the fact rather than in advance of it. UNI has rerated - HLG has not (and has that to come in my view).
Retailers SP's tend to shoot well below fundamental value when things crater. I expect the news flow to remain negative for a while yet.
Could be opportunities over the next 18 odd months. And a fair amount of value destruction has already occurred for aussie listed stocks.
Moose never debated lofty multiples but the relative value back in June 2022 and went on to nearly double his money in 8 months. I am very comfortable with that investment decision.
Nothing sweeter than a repeater. I think you might be in again if it gets down close to $2.
I prefer Glassons more cautious debt free approach to growth and the amount of history there with HLG is extraordinary. 59 cps in cash on the balance sheet last time I looked too. If there is a pullback in HLG I don't expect it to be anything like the back of the woodshed treatment UNI's got. On a DCF basis a slowdown is sales for a year or so in a high quality stock like HLG makes a pretty modest impact on the valuation. I would relish the opportunity to buy more at ~ $5.
I prefer HLG's debt free profile and slower store rollout profile too. I prefer UNI's all Australia focus and don't hold HLG's NZ business in particularly high regard (Glassons AU I def. do hold in high regard).
Glassons AU probably won't ever rollout fast and may have a capped total store potential as a lot of the brand value lies in a sense of scarcity for key product launches. Its one thing I've observed watching the brand. They understand their brand and dont want to dilute it having hundreds of stores, in my view.
UNI, PMV and Accent are all excellent Aussie retailers and UNI probably the best listed comp for Glassons. NZ retail will probably be hit hard given what some of my friends active in the sector tell me and tie up with the datamine info.
NZ listed retailers much less reactive and more lagged than their Aussie peers, but it does catch up and is equally as severe, as the WHS chart tells us. And that's great if one is nimble though if moving a large parcel may need a lot of time.
We have the chart to help guide us but the struggle will be getting confidence on how financials will be impacted as facts evolve. Inflationary pressures in AU could slow in FY25 - FY24 will be hard given record labour price increases, rental inflation, and staggering power bill rises (with labour and utilities rising in July). So one would hope that will fade in FY25, but then one needs to consider what happens to retail spending when unemployment rises a couple percent from unsustainably low levels and that could spill over or most be felt in 12-24 months rather than the next 12 months. Freight prices are down but a lot if not all those gains are increasingly being offset by weak FX and rising promotional activity which is a bummer. These retail cycles dont rectify themselves in half a year or a year in my experience, they take a bit of time, and that causes investors to get a bit skiddish. People forget how hard and out of favour retail was for long periods in 2011-2016).
Anyway those are my musings. opinions only, take em or leave em it. There are a lot of moving pieces so views are necessarily a net gut feel at a moment in time.
I wouldnt mind a repeater of my experience in UNI and its on my list. I'm not sure if FY24 will be the bottom and hence when I take a dabble or if it'll be in FY25 - but I'm aware of the catalysts as I see them and described above, so will be watching those as they evolve, and looking at a chart. That said I've moved on a bit from dabbling in retailers.
Fluid times, for sure.
Some commentators in Australia have coined the phrase 'inflation lockdown' when it comes to dire straits retail is in
Aussie inflation came in at 5.6% today. Retail stocks getting a lift off the backdraft of a potential rate pause
yep lets hope someone pushes the alarm button in moscow and makes sure there grain exports and ukraine hit the markets...
Lets hope the TURKS keep it flowing...
Jeez - A very strong retail sales number for May released by the ABS this morning. Up 0.7% MoM vs expectations of +0.1%.
And 4.2% higher than May last year
Aussies still spending
Thanks mate, its increasingly looking like an economic soft landing on both sides of the Tasman.
ANZ reckon business confidence is bouncing back to the highest level since late 2021
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/business-confidence-bounce-suggests-worst-could-be-over-anz/KTH3HHRSYFCMHHXQWAUJZQZ2KQ/
Have we, or are we in the process or bottoming out ?
Probably never been a recession anyway ...just a bit of weaker economic growth than normal
Won't read that in the papers or see that on TV will you.
Just a note of caution though. petrol tax going back on this weekend will add another 29 cents per liter and drive inflation a bit including road user charges for Trucks going back up to where it was driving transport costs up. Yet another excuse for supermarkets, (not that they appear to need one), to increase their prices yet again....
Things can't be too bad if tens of thousands of Kiwis and hundreds of thousands of Aussies paying hundreds of dollars to go to a Taylor Swift concert.....and forking out a small fortune to fly to Oz to see her
What recession
I think it's wise to remember that you, I and many others on here are not short of a quid and have no mortgage so we're not feeling it but for those that are sailing pretty close to the wind, increases in the cost of living do make a big difference especially when they're not matched by the same percentage increase in income. I think the Taylor Swift thing is a lot of fans feel this is a once in a lifetime or once in a many years experience so I think for many fans there will be a bit of scrimping and saving going on in other area's of their budget so they can afford it.
Punters getting happier and likely to keep spending https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2023/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20230630.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 29, 2023, 02:59 PMJeez - A very strong retail sales number for May released by the ABS this morning. Up 0.7% MoM vs expectations of +0.1%.
And 4.2% higher than May last year
Aussies still spending
Not all retail though
screenshot-api.macrobusiness.com.au-2023.06.30-13_54_39.png
Indeed and relevant to include the ABS specifically noted retailers had brought forward seasonal promotions (which would have normally would have occurred later in winter (ie august).
From one bank economist
" The surprise rise was partially driven by larger and earlier than usual promotional activities and sales events in May, according to the ABS.
If this strength in May was representative of a 'pull‑forward' in spending to take advantage of discounts, this could be at the expense of future spending. The ABS likened the increase to last year's Black Friday sales, where retail spending rose by 1.7%% in November. But, importantly, retail trade then fell in December by 3.9%%."
Anecdotally am aware the discounting is high.
If 1H FY24 promotions are pulled forward into the v end of FY23 in an attempt to compensate for a rapidly deteriorating trading environment before financial year end, 1H Fy24 is going to look positively horrendous on the previous period as 1H FY23 represented the absolute peak in Australian retail trading, and 1H winter promotions will have already been had.
I note Harvey Norman came out with a profit shocker two days ago, but not surprising the segment they operate in.
All well and good that 2H FY23 started quite strong for most australasian retailers, with the worm only turning in 2nd to last week of May. From my perspective much pain will be felt at the mid year FY24 mark.
That could throw up a few opportunities, depending on how spending stabilises or not at normalised levels in the intervening period.
clothes and stuff down... they are going off to the movies maybe...they havnt bought winter clothes yet...
fake reports , watch out for fake reports...
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 29, 2023, 06:46 PMThings can't be too bad if tens of thousands of Kiwis and hundreds of thousands of Aussies paying hundreds of dollars to go to a Taylor Swift concert.....and forking out a small fortune to fly to Oz to see her
What recession
Good point, I wondered that as well. They say people have to skip meals and go to the foodbank and than they are able to fork out many hundreds of dollars for going to a concert. Hmm ...
But then - maybe they skimp on the return ticket and stay on the other side of the ditch instead?
Was in Vancouver last week where the talk has been about the decimation of big retail. Nordstrom closing all branches in Canada. Only one department store left in Vancouver. Apparently people are preferring on line to physical stores. The increase in store thefts and difficulty getting staff all adding to increase costs. Retailers increasing prices a catalyst for consumers to buy cheaper on line. Seems you can only increase your price so much.
Disc. I added Amazon and a few other beaten down American stocks last year. Sold out of only retail stock KMD a while ago.
In Alaska now, off to see some bears.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 30, 2023, 04:24 PMGood point, I wondered that as well. They say people have to skip meals and go to the foodbank and than they are able to fork out many hundreds of dollars for going to a concert. Hmm ...
Hundreds. Try thousands. It was going to cost my sister $8k to take my two nieces to see Tay Tay. Still tried out for tickets though, courtesy of me sitting at home all day glued to the ticketek ticket screen. Still no joy though, and I admit I'm a bit sad about that like all the other Swifties who missed out.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 29, 2023, 06:18 PMJust a note of caution though. petrol tax going back on this weekend will add another 29 cents per liter and drive inflation a bit including road user charges for Trucks going back up to where it was driving transport costs up. Yet another excuse for supermarkets, (not that they appear to need one), to increase their prices yet again....
You do this piece for Stuff Basil
'The country is stuffed': Petrol pain is back and not just at the pumpshttps://www.stuff.co.nz/national/132454223/the-country-is-stuffed-petrol-pain-is-back-and-not-just-at-the-pumps
LOL Not guilty mate but I did fill my car up on Friday. I think what you read there is indicative of the real frustration many feel especially those who are suffering from a huge increase to their mortgage costs.
There's another side to this though and that's all the investors now getting ~ 6% on term deposit when a couple of years ago they were getting 1%.
John Campbell on Sunday, TVNZ. Roads around Gisborne not looking good according to this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGVqv8yf7sU
Lucky immigration is going to save the day...
Quote from: KW on Jul 01, 2023, 12:33 PMHundreds. Try thousands. It was going to cost my sister $8k to take my two nieces to see Tay Tay. Still tried out for tickets though, courtesy of me sitting at home all day glued to the ticketek ticket screen. Still no joy though, and I admit I'm a bit sad about that like all the other Swifties who missed out.
$8K is a lot of trips to the foodbank.
She could save herself a fortune, shake it off, (all the travel costs), and watch the whole thing here for free.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIq6h0sfrJM&t=6011s
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 03, 2023, 12:45 PMLucky immigration is going to save the day...
What immigration? Still running a net population loss
| Mar 2023 | 443627 | 467982 | -24,355 |
| Apr 2023 | 445425 | 479764 | -34,339 |
| May 2023 | 379383 | 413750 | -34,367 |
| Jun 2023 | 405,021 | 424,042 | -19,021 |
Quote from: KW on Jul 03, 2023, 01:17 PMWhat immigration? Still running a net population loss
| Mar 2023 | 443627 | 467982 | -24,355 |
| Apr 2023 | 445425 | 479764 | -34,339 |
| May 2023 | 379383 | 413750 | -34,367 |
| Jun 2023 | 405,021 | 424,042 | -19,021 |
Sincere request, where did you get that information, as stats nz has a different set of figures (see below).
stats nz m12 migration.png
Quote from: Cod on Jul 03, 2023, 01:43 PMSincere request, where did you get that information, as stats nz has a different set of figures (see below).
stats nz m12 migration.png
the clue is in the word "estimated". Stats NZ makes stuff up. Or rather their computer model makes stuff up. I use the actual raw data from Customs NZ who physically count those entering and leaving the country.
The second clue is in the date. There was an influx of people in late 2022 as the borders reopened. But in March 2023 it went negative. But the March quarter was still big due to Jan and Feb. I await with interest Stats NZ figures for the June quarter.
So in 2022 there was a net inflow of 101,212 people. But in 2023 to date there has been a net outflow of 43,886 people.
"Still running a net population loss"
damn lies and statistics....
something is going to have to save the day!!!
surely that is disinflationary.
RBA likely to hike tomorrow?
https://www.rba.gov.au/coming-up/
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 03, 2023, 02:10 PMRBA likely to hike tomorrow?
https://www.rba.gov.au/coming-up/
Nah, inflation there came in lower than expected, at 5.6% so they will probably continue with their Pause.
So in 2022 there was a net inflow of 101,212 people. But in 2023 to date there has been a net outflow of 43,886 people. -- KW
Kind of glad that it's dropped off, as at a 100k plus per year 2022 it's unsustainable.
Thanks for the info.
Cod
Jeez OneNews and we are 5 minutes in and things seem to desperate in NZ
CREDIT CRUNCH and hundreds of thousand behind in repayments
If that not enough more and more companies going into liquidation
TV making it sound really really bad ...desperate in fact.
At least a tipsy mayor and Kiri weren't first up tonite
Must stop watching thecTV news
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132500144/prices-set-to-rise-as-retailers-battle-high-costs-and-fear-of-closure
Prices will continue to rise in the next three months as almost 60% of retailers fail to meet sales targets and others fear closure within the year.
The latest Retail Radar report from Retail NZ found many of the challenges that retailers reported last quarter had continued into the winter months, with inflation, increasing wage costs and retail crime proving stubborn. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127637747/more-than-half-of-retailers-expect-to-increase-prices-by-75-per-cent-over-the-next-three-months)
Almost 60% of retailers did not meet their sales targets over the past three months, which was up from 44% in the previous quarter, Retail NZ's chief executive Greg Harford said.
"Much of the same outlook continues for the next three months, with half of all retailers not expecting to meet targets again in the third quarter of 2023."
Cost increases were the biggest issue keeping retailers up at night.
Its not looking good for NZ retail....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132500144/prices-set-to-rise-as-retailers-battle-high-costs-and-fear-of-closure
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 08, 2023, 01:16 PMIts not looking good for NZ retail....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132500144/prices-set-to-rise-as-retailers-battle-high-costs-and-fear-of-closure
This bit was quite shocking.
"Most concerningly, 36% of retailers report that they are not confident, or not sure if they will survive the next 12 months.," Harford said."We have not seen these levels since the worst of the Covid-19 crisis. Over the last few months, we have seen a significant number of retail businesses take the decision to close their doors, and these latest numbers show that many businesses are on a knife-edge."
A Govt that did not understand what a business market policy actually was...
Dont think this government even cares... its to busy with its own image of woke ness and placating their base.
Bit like a ship sinking with everyone thinking its just some light rain....
Quote from: KW on Jul 08, 2023, 01:50 PMThis bit was quite shocking.
"Most concerningly, 36% of retailers report that they are not confident, or not sure if they will survive the next 12 months.," Harford said.
"We have not seen these levels since the worst of the Covid-19 crisis. Over the last few months, we have seen a significant number of retail businesses take the decision to close their doors, and these latest numbers show that many businesses are on a knife-edge."
I love it - sounds like blood on the floor, and even the shoeshine boys and girls talk about exiting the industry.
This must be an amazing time for a well run retailer to buy out the competition :), which means that even the retailers not doing that well might be already a bargain.
Maybe the time for investors to buy and for the rest to run for the hills is nigh - though, who knows, it might have been passed already.
Lets stop eating to make this crisis we are talking ourselves in really bad, shall we?
NZ is a long from the markets of the world..
and sometimes its just easier to pack up and go closure to where the products are actually used... or eaten..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kevin-jenkins-it-isnt-easy-being-a-small-cheesemaker-in-nz/OEJNA5HJOZGUPBBBAWBKFJY6YA/
but you would think with global warming and cost of transport surely going sky high in the next decade NZ would not lose the local cheeses?
AT least lets hope the wine makers dont go the same way.
Tony Alexander today - he's an economist so often wrong 🤔
This month's survey of half of the 30,000 subscribers to my weekly Tony's View shows a fresh deterioration in consumer spending plans following an improvement in June.
A net 38% of the 726 respondents plan cutting spending in the next 3-6 months.
Spending plans have been waxing and waning at poor levels for six months now as people grapple with high borrowing costs, the rapid rise in the cost of living, falling house prices up until recently, yet a strong labour market.
Do you feel confident enough about your future to increase spending over the next 3-6 months?
A net 38% of survey respondents say they will cut their spending in the next 3 – 6 months.
This is a deterioration from a net 21% planning spending cutbacks a month ago but still slightly better than the net 42% on May.
The overall result bodes poorly for retailer sales over the remainder of 2023.
Where will people spend more?
We ask people what things they plan spending more on and what they plan spending less on. From these responses we can calculate net purchasing intentions for the categories we cover and the results for this month are shown in the following chart.
There are only two areas where more people plan boosting spending than cutting it. The first is groceries, obviously because of higher prices etc etc blah blah blah
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 09, 2023, 11:43 AMAT least lets hope the wine makers dont go the same way.
They already are. Instead of exporting bottled wine we now export raw grape juice.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/indevin-ceo-on-moving-kiwi-wine-to-the-uk-after-20-years-in-business/NTIAHHO2LJCBJCF2NUWOFUSA2U/
Chief executive Duncan McFarlane says that from February next year, half of Villa Maria's bottling will move to the UK.
"This is not news because all the staff are aware," McFarlane told the
Herald.
Newsroom reported last month that Villa Maria's Kiwi staff, based in Māngere, are expecting mass redundancies.
Come back in summer march 2025....nothing going to happen in the mean time is there?
mass ? oh dear....
its going to be bleak local SP prices in retail for a while then?
And what is the implications for retail....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/stock-takes-podcast-how-much-worse-will-unemployment-become/K3HMAFFSGVEH7KRSEGWXBZANAM/
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 02, 2023, 06:36 AMAnd what is the implications for retail....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/stock-takes-podcast-how-much-worse-will-unemployment-become/K3HMAFFSGVEH7KRSEGWXBZANAM/
Not good. I'm involved in retail. I have never seen things so bad. Shop keepers powerless to stop theft which is at epidemic proportions. Police not interested. Shop keepers and staff can't even hold somebody. They don't even run these days, just calmly walk out the door laughing at you.
You also have to contend with outgoings going through the roof with insurance premiums up over 30 percent alone. Staff wanting pay rises and customers buying more and more on line.
So I think it going to get worse. Sold out of only retail stock KMD some time ago.
Ok SG should NZ have privatised prisons... the whole lot and then NZ SHAZ can buys shares in that... kinda like the Retirement sector but this one needs a new name?
Lets hope the Listed Retailer can come through this so called TR (technical recession).
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 02, 2023, 03:23 PMOk SG should NZ have privatised prisons... the whole lot and then NZ SHAZ can buys shares in that... kinda like the Retirement sector but this one needs a new name?
Lets hope the Listed Retailer can come through this so called TR (technical recession).
Interesting. Don't think making money out of people's misery would go down well waltzing. I also think it's the governments job to handle incarceration.
In my opinion the law needs to be changed to allow retailers to at least hold people until the police arrived. Proper penalties in place and most importantly a lot more police. We have less per population than even Fiji.
You only need to go into some of the dairy's in south Auckland to realise we have a problem. Shop keepers in metal cages. It's just not right.
And economy looks to be as bad as you suggest SG....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/public-service-bosses-called-in-as-government-accounts-plunge-deeper-into-the-red/CKEBIEWIAFA5TBOUCMFXR4YK3Y/
its look a bit sad ... a trading market now... not so much investing ...
Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 02, 2023, 05:23 PMInteresting. Don't think making money out of people's misery would go down well waltzing. I also think it's the governments job to handle incarceration.
Around 20% of Australia's prisons are privately run. Four main operators - Serco is listed on the London Stock Exchange (SRP), GEO Group is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (GEO), G4S (private company) and MTC-Broadspectrum which is part of Ventia and listed on the ASX (VNT)
According to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), retail sales volumes in Australia declined 0.5% in the June quarter of 2023, the third consecutive quarterly fall.
It comes after a 0.8% fall in the March quarter of 2023 and a 0.4% drop in the December quarter of 2022.
According to Ben Dorber, ABS's head of retail statistics, the drop in retail sales volumes demonstrates the extent to which consumers have cut back on spending in response to cost-of-living challenges.
"It's the first time since 2008 that retail sales volumes have recorded three consecutive quarterly falls", he said.
"Retail sales volumes are down 1.4% compared to the June quarter last year. Outside of the pandemic period, this is the first time since 1991 that sales volumes have fallen compared to the previous year."
However, clothing sales volumes are up, while prices are down. Make of that what you will
Capture-34.png
Since its Winter will reach for a HOT MILO and hope 2024 -25 brings better times.... and an percentage increase in retail stat's..
Quote from: KW on Aug 03, 2023, 03:17 PMAccording to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), retail sales volumes in Australia declined 0.5% in the June quarter of 2023, the third consecutive quarterly fall.
It comes after a 0.8% fall in the March quarter of 2023 and a 0.4% drop in the December quarter of 2022.
According to Ben Dorber, ABS's head of retail statistics, the drop in retail sales volumes demonstrates the extent to which consumers have cut back on spending in response to cost-of-living challenges.
"It's the first time since 2008 that retail sales volumes have recorded three consecutive quarterly falls", he said.
"Retail sales volumes are down 1.4% compared to the June quarter last year. Outside of the pandemic period, this is the first time since 1991 that sales volumes have fallen compared to the previous year."
However, clothing sales volumes are up, while prices are down. Make of that what you will
Capture-34.png
re the bolded line there was actually deflation in clothing & apparel prices in Australia for the quarter (both YoY and % SA change from previous quarter). Part of that due to higher than normal EOFY promotional activity (higher discounts mean lower net ASPs) and a more difficult sell through of winter orientated stock....think jackets, blazers, etc (its warmer winter). Those typically carry higher ASPs and there is a mix effect as less of those are sold, and then discounted to clear. Probably more purchases made with northern hemisphere travel made in mind canabilising winter purchases - lower average sales prices and mix effect. Hard to say how much is extra discounting and how much is mix - but regardless the cause deflation is not something a retailer wants.
Hey Fiordland Moose
You should update the chart showing Oz retail clothing sales volumes this century and see if volumes have reverted back to trend yet
Your did say chart must mean something when you posted it ...seems it did
Screen shot file too large to post
She is still running pretty hot, W69.
Clothing, footwear, & accessories volumes for the June quarter were 23.1% above the 20 year pre covid trend, and below the 12 month to June weighted average of 24% above trend (peaked at 27.2% in September).
Another relevant measure is volumes per capita, given population growth. On that basis, 18.3% above trend, and compares to 20.3% over the last 12 months to June. That's clocked down each quarter since the September quarter, which was the peak quarter (from a seasonally adjusted POV), 23.7% > 19.5% > 18.35% > 18.29%. I expect a more meaningful contraction and closing the gap to trend across the coming quarters & persisting over the next ~18-24 months. Clothing volumes & spend per capita useful bellwethers in evaluating the RBA cash rate as well - been a handy guide that has served me well on the FX front. Suggests more tightening may be required, although I think we'll see bigger quarterly falls in months to December based on some freight forwarding ordering intention data coming from the AU retail market that I've seen.
You can splice the data down further - shoes vs clothing, men vs women, etc. Won't be surprising to most that clothing has held up better than shoes.
Thanks FM ...is interesting and agreegives insight into the future (in Oz)
AUS future GDP growth +/- will surely be the factor that determines the overall direction of Kanga land...
Pet Central, a chain of pet stores in the Sth Island has gone into liquidation
https://www.chrislynchmedia.com/news-items/staff-left-angry-and-upset-after-pet-central-stores-go-into-liquidation
That leaves Animates (Ebos) and Pet Stock (privately owned) in the market, along with the two online companies PetDirect and Pet.co.nz
Just another example of the lack of competition in a small market.
Top catch a large fishing retail chain has also just gone into liquidation. Retail not a good place to be at the moment it seems.
Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 07, 2023, 02:47 PMTop catch a large fishing retail chain has also just gone into liquidation. Retail not a good place to be at the moment it seems.
Where you going to get your next rod and stuff now?
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 07, 2023, 03:57 PMWhere you going to get your next rod and stuff now?
Not sure. There is plenty of people in this space. Plus very easy to buy on line. My cousin buys 2 times a year from China, heaps cheaper.
There was a great little trout fly fishing shop called the Red Spinner or something like that at the bottom of Hatepe Hill run by Bruno.. an EX MI6 spy who was whisked out of Hong Kong and hidden in lake taupo... wonderr how many other spy's were sent down under ....
Retail not what it was in the golden era of the late 70's...
Yes chatted to Farmers today across the long drive way fence and they were shocked at the price drop...
Could this effect BRIS and other retailers in towns? Wonder what the total drop in retail spending will be from this...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/opinion/300945203/dairy-farmers-slam-their-wallets-shut-after-fonterra-announced-the-farmgate-milk-price-drop
Oz retail still might struggle.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slipped 3.4pts to 75 this week, fully erasing the gains of last week. The index has now spent a record 23 straight weeks below the mark of 80 – beating the all-time record of five months (22 weeks) from September 1990 – January 1991 when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence is now 5.3pts below the same week a year ago, August 1-7, 2022 (80.3) and 3.2pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.2. Looking around the states, Consumer Confidence was down in all five mainland states this week.
Driving the index down this week were decreases in sentiment regarding personal finances both compared to a year ago and expectations over the next year. A record high majority of 57% of respondents said they are 'worse off financially' than this time last year.
Excellent reporting Winner()!
will Barbie sales be the only item in the pink this northern summer?
Margot Robbie and Barbie must in line for some awards surely... best ... ahhh... dressed award!!!! Is there one at the oscar for that?
KMD 89 and HLG under 6.....
maybe the market isnt completely convinced spring will bring good news on the GDP front... oh yes forgot the farm gate is now firmly shut and the camp fires are burning in the valleys..
so much for 7 winner()....
A retail tenant in a mall in Auckland has just vacated after 15 years in clothing retail.
He said retail here is just too hard and made the following comments.
1/ Outgoings are rising every year beyond any growth in sales. His insurance alone was up 32 percent just this year.
2/ Shop lifting is at epidemic proportions and has got dramatically worse last few years. He and his staff have been assaulted on numerous occasions. His wife had broken bones to show for it after telling a shoplifter to put the items back. In most cases the police are not interested. In fact made the comment that most retailers don't even ring the police as they are not interested unless over $500. Even then very unusual for them to show up. Shoplifters are aware of the law and simply stuff things in bags in view of the shop keeper and walk out the door.
3/ Police used to have regular community patrols in the town centre. Not these days. Mall security are powerless and reluctant to do anything.
4/ People are more prone to violence if challenged. Many seem to carry knifes.
5/ A number of shop lifters are under age and even If caught are back in the shop the next day laughing and threatening the shop keepers.
6/ Alcohol and Vape shops seem to be doing well. 4 vape shops in his mall alone.
7/ Can't compete with online shops. Try things on in his shop and then buy online from others.
I'm sure there will be plenty of other retailers with the same issues. Very sad indeed.
Point 4 made me think of this way of 'dealing' with it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1ibWsmEB70
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Aug 19, 2023, 12:22 AMPoint 4 made me think of this way of 'dealing' with it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1ibWsmEB70
Yes but we are far too woke for that. There is already a number of shops where the staff are in cages.
Retail sales tank in UK... but lets face it UK is a basket case at the moment...
"Partly due to wet weather, U.K. retail sales lost 1.2% in July, well below a consensus forecast of a 0.5% drop produced by a Reuters poll of economists, further dampening sentiment."
wet weather? Its been wet down under for near on a year and have you noticed the Gardens? All that moss growing everywhere...
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 20, 2023, 09:57 PMwet weather? Its been wet down under for near on a year and have you noticed the Gardens? All that moss growing everywhere...
You need to spray wet'n'forget and walk away!
Lots of treatments to make the grass grow greener ...
now we just need some treatments to make the economy sprout some new growth... diary down ..
Crime, theft in particular now so bad it influences headline earnings much worse than it used to be. Same here with Countdown taking additional 'action'. Headlines all over.
Eg.
Retailers blame theft for significant losses: How big is the problem?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4CBxZ86skM
Dick's reporting an earning's revenue miss and increases in inventory loss due to looting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x54zi4HJP_c
For those of you running Security systems this is the next level. Getting those camera feeds and making them smarter. It certainly something we will be looking at over the next few years with what feeds we are running.
For long drives ways cones can be replaced by old fashioned border control installations if you need them. Swipe cards or remotes for the bars to lift up on the drive ways..
Once you have secured your business and home properties the effects you observe in people behaviours can be noticed. Hardened criminals of course arnt detoured by much ....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300954947/exhausted-store-owner-turns-to-ai-to-detect-crimes--before-they-even-happen
This reminded me of the movie 'Minority Report' back in the early 2000's.
But more local I can imagine retailers (the topic here) being interested in something like this.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retail-crime-supermarket-chain-says-assaults-robberies-burglaries-more-than-doubled-in-a-year/2PRQL3ONIBDGNJDJE5FQQI376E/
Harvey Norman NZ sales in H123 (Dec) were down 5% on pcp and H223 (June) they were down 11%
Seems a common trend ....last 6 months tough
Yoga pants are where its at ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/lululemon-lulu-earnings-q2-2023.html
Is China debt a threat to the consumer in NZ and to retail as it will also surely effect the Kangas as well...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/chinas-143t-property-debt-crisis-how-it-could-hurt-nz/75WGIKKNKZGFLILGYYVWX6UA2E/
no recession .... massive boost from immigration...
hmmmm... another interest hike but slow growth... could be a closure election and maybe HLG does not see 5 dollars..
I think it's clear TRA are weathering this downturn a lot better than most. It will be very interesting to see the divisional performance of HLG later this month when they report. I'm picking N.Z. operations have been extremely weak and Glassons Au continues to do okay.
On X yesterday from Luxon - makes you wonder how people can afford to buy anything.
Sat down for a 'Lux' hot chocolate at the Neighbourhood Cafe this morning to hear from Colin Wordsworth that the Lower Hutt Community food bank is getting slammed - they've never seen the need so large.
And it's mortgage holders who are coming in for food, it's folk who have good jobs but are getting snowed under by the cost of living.
CNBC this morning. Oil prices on a tear, up 40% since May. Possible recession and weaker growth in China Europe and elsewhere don't seem to matter. Oil just doesn't seem to want to stabilize no matter what. Starting to concern consumers.
Cost of living concerns are much the same over the Tasman https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/persistent-pessimism-why-australians-are-depressed-about-the-economy-20230912-p5e41v.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+13+September+2023
The Evil empires control Oil and they dont want low Oil prices and perhaps the option not to have Nuclear and more Solar is now coming to back to bite western country's...
Retail is going to take a bit of the pounding in this NZ ...
Its a traders world coming and Sir Walter R is the ultimate Trader to follow...
RetailWatch September sales report
Total sales +5.3% onnsame month last year
Bit gloomy if you take travel/accomodation and supermarkets out of numbers
Clothing down 4% on pcp, Department Stores down 4% for instance
2 year now above the 10...
FoBAR might not be tracking US inflation data... if that settles over the next 4 qtrs this could be the lows and 2025 will come round faster than you think...
super HOT summer coming only beach wear going to be needed..
A whole new generation is just getting started around the world ... dont under estimate the spending power in the US after the huge increase in US debt... H&M taking a dip ... but it wil come back... they want the stuff... every generation wants the STUFF.. and there will be more smarter stuff to buy...
When it comes to retail :you cant beat the JAPS"
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2023/10/11/archax-robot-japan-cprog-lon-orig-ao.cnn
from phones to transformers ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEIGG-pN7ug
US retail stocks move to the upside ...
one more rate hike to come and the US consumer just keeps spending....
A couple of CNBC links on the matter.
Retail sales came in stronger due to climbing wages
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzmitjOvNnc
Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, much stronger than estimate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5MjgKGwYHI
Meanwhile, locally (from Interest.co.nz)
WHERE THE RETAIL CUTBACKS ARE:
ANZ reported its card tracking shows small gains in consumer spending in September. Tourism is a bright spot. But for consumers spending on clothing is lower than a year ago despite inflation rising +4.4% for that category. Spending on business goods and services is the other area keeping the overall levels up, especially "utilities and repairs".
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124845/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-thursday-tough-fhbs-they-borrow-anyway
Low Christmas spending could force struggling retailers to close
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/301007430/newsable-low-christmas-spending-could-force-struggling-retailers-to-close
"...Carolyn Young, who told Newsable why some retailers are on a "knife edge," with Christmas key to whether they'll make it through to next year.
Young said, last quarter, 61% of retailers told Retail NZ they didn't meet their sales targets."
R 2000 up today and inflation CORE was flat in the US...
Is this the bottom people... will we see a big rally into XMAS 2024.
And here is the break down CPI ....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-october-2023-in-one-chart.html
R 2000 up today and inflation CORE was flat in the US...
Is this the bottom people... will we see a big rally into XMAS 2024. - W
Yes, IMHO it has already begun.
Tailwinds
Falling CPI - 7.3,7.2,7.2,6.7,6.0,5.6 what's the next number down or up?
Falling NZ 10 Bonds 0.6 percent in two weeks - update just moved below 5.0%.
Falling M2 money supply affecting CPI.
Residential Property sales up last three months.
OCR flat and maybe done.
Migration falling but still high historically.
NZX market lagging against S&P since ATH.
Govt Wrapped up soon finally.
s&p.png
Great looking CPI numbers there COD.... trending DOWN and thank goodness...
Wonder how the Boxing Day sales are going
Kathmandu, Rip Curl owner warns of sales wipe-out as consumers remain nervous
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/kathmandu-rip-curl-owner-warns-of-sales-wipeout-as-consumers-remain-nervous/news-story/cd5b2a9699963a94d5f7f7a186aab4bb?amp
Its flagship Kathmandu stores have suffered a 21.6 per cent decline in sales growth for the first four months of fiscal 2024, with much of the pain for the retail owner coming from wholesale channels as volatile trading conditions and macroeconomic challenges saw many retail customers withhold from purchasing orders.
The dour outlook so close to Christmas, and failure for Black Friday figures to reverse collapsing sales trends could be an early sign of things to come for the wider retail sector as businesses navigate a number of economic headwinds.
On Wednesday KMD Brands, which also owns footwear brand Oboz, reported a trading update said group sales were down 12.5 per cent below last year for the first four months of the 2024 financial year although gross margins had shown some improvement. It said the double digit sales drop reflected ongoing weakness in consumer sentiment.
Just an observation. Kathmandu is widely regarded as an expensive brand. People are shifting to value brands. K Mart are doing fabulously well as a result of their trend change so different parts of the retail market are still doing fine. Red Shed store sales also doing okay, (again affordable stuff) but the group's profit is being smashed with more expensive consumer area's such as Torpedo 7.
KMD brand has been in a no mans land for a few years now
unnamed.jpg
Will this hit retail in NZ? OIL and european goods...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/21/container-prices-hit-10000-freight-inflation-soars-in-red-sea-chaos.html
Nike stock plunges on poor sales outlook ..... what the heck it's Nike
Some spending going on Winner(n*).....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/consumer-spending-on-traditional-pre-christmas-uptick-at-265b-this-month/VTXTTZBKBBG7HN2G6NYK42HLGE/
KMD and WHS hitting fresh multi year lows, probably headed even lower in 2024. Retail doesn't look like a great place to be in 2024, well, certainly not for the first half anyway, other than stocks that have proven they are highly resilient in the current environment, good examples being TRA and 2CC. People need transport and demand for basic transport is highly inelastic with economic cycles just like demand for fuel barely changes with different price points. People see their right of freedom of movement as a core need that must be met regardless of economic conditions, all the more so after the truly diabolical misery of Covid lockdowns, that is how I see it. People are moving to value brands and value purchases in the vehicle sector so both these listed companies with their cheap vehicle price points should do very well. Neither are on expensive metrics, and both are probably a good place to be in 2024. I am content to simply hold one, TRA, but I am pretty sure 2CC shareholders will have another good year in 2024 and good luck to them.
The reality of high interest rates has set in https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reality-of-high-interest-rates-has-set-in-bank-lending-data-shows/AAYRMFB6N5EBJEN6XYLDCXU2K4/ Paywalled. Excerpt: Christmas will be a subdued event for many this year, with the latest bank lending data showing high interest rates are biting, snip,...."You don't get rid of inflation without inflicting some economic harm," Cameron Bagrie of Bagrie Economics said.
"We are now starting to head into the reality zone."
All this talk about hard times in retail .......nz core retail sales continue to reach record highs ...punters are spending
So called bad times must be a sign how useless most retailers are at making a buck
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 23, 2023, 11:16 AMAll this talk about hard times in retail .......nz core retail sales continue to reach record highs ...punters are spending
So called bad times must be a sign how useless most retailers are at making a buck
Amazing recent result by WHS. Less than 1% net margin on sales of $3.4 Billion.
QuoteHighlights
o Group sales of $3.4 billion, up 3.2% on prior year, including record sales
result for The Warehouse of $1.9 billion, up 9.6% on prior year
o FY23 gross profit margin decreased 190 basis points compared to FY22 but an
improvement on FY23 H1
o Reported Net Profit After Tax of $29.8 million - down 66.6% on prior year
Can't resist a comment reflecting on the year that was in the context of what you've said. I suppose if you're in the super money league and paid $3m a year, at least in theory you would understand why a simple strategy that I advise clients to do, see below, wouldn't work.
That strategy is simply this, make sure your margins are not eroded by inflation. If inflation is running at 6% per annum you need to be increasing your prices several times a year by 1-2% a time so nobody is put off or offended, to ensure inflation doesn't eat your profits. (Those in the construction sector with inflation running at 17% at one point, need to be repricing every month).
A long time ago I started acting for a rose grower and he had miniature roses he germinated, grew for a while and potted up and sold for $2.99 each. He wasn't making any money so I asked him when the last time was you changed the price. Oh he said proudly, they've always been that price since I started over 20 years ago.
I find it staggering that if WHS's average prices across the year were simply 1% higher they would have delivered a profit more than double what they did.
My contention is that Nick is so focused on all his omni channel and ESG B.S he's overlooked the fact that for many consumers their nearest WHS store is simply a convenient way to buy basic goods at a cheap price. You don't have to be the absolute cheapest in the N.Z. The stores proximity to where people live is also a big factor and they have a vast retail network they can exploit that the likes of Costco doesn't.
Yes often a WHS is close if your in the country and there is a local red shed in a town within 50 kilometers...
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 23, 2023, 11:16 AMAll this talk about hard times in retail .......nz core retail sales continue to reach record highs ...punters are spending
So called bad times must be a sign how useless most retailers are at making a buck
Punters are not buying more stuff, they are simply paying more to buy less stuff thanks to rampant inflation that has been running at over 6% for 2 years now.
Which is why when looking at company results, one needs to read beyond the headline number "revenue up 6%" and look at whether margins and profits are going up or down as well. A company that has revenue up 6% and profit up 6% is merely running to stand still. A company that has revenue up 6% and profits up 8% has pricing power. A company that has revenue up 6% but profits down 6% is going backwards.
In a low inflation environment a 6% increase in revenue/profits would be a sign of growth. In an inflationary one, they need to be increasing revenue and profits by more than 6% each year.
Look forward to seeing the BRISC report and the margins as KW has reminded us ... its the Expenses part of the profit and loss that is going to impact the NPAT figures.
And what on earth does the market think is going on with MHJ....
should be down at 75 ....
its recession and who buys this stuff in a recession...
lets hope the next result is a true shocker and it stay down till 2025 ...
Not so much cash register jingle... (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301032259/186-transactions-in-a-second-heres-how-christmas-shopping-this-year-compares)
"Both peak hourly transactions and peak transactions-per-second were down 3% from 2022, despite a bigger population."
"The data pointed to a busy Christmas, but one with fewer transactions and purchases, as the cost of living pressure hit."
Yeap, supermarkets packed but malls surprisingly empty today https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/supermarkets-packed-malls-surprisingly-empty-as-kiwis-prepare-for-christmas/ar-AA1lXQij?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5740e474e548483dbce46da747145736&ei=14
Retailers will be hoping it reverts back to busy malls on boxing day.
Mrs B took the grandkids down to Lynnmall early this morning to spend their Christmas cash. She said she was quite surprised it wasn't very busy. I slept in trying to digest yesterday's glutinous excesses. Quiet day today needed and drink a lot of water.
Herald reporting it was very busy elsewhere though so who knows. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/boxing-day-sales-retailers-in-tears-as-crowds-descend-onto-sylvia-park/FJ5QXOMPEJCZFOD3ZCPWD7EILI/
Watching tv news retail stocks must be a BUY tomorrow
And those thousands of unwanted gifts on Trademe were cash in till once ...and when sold will be cash in till again
Retail on @ roll ...what's there to worry about
Dunno mate. I am struggling to find 5 NZX stocks I really fancy for 2024 either for the stock market contest or in my real portfolio. My nose for a feed is not picking up any big easy feeds just around the corner ahead. Very weak economy for 2024 is my pick. Probably better off with just a few high conviction picks on the NZX if you can find them, then overseas markets and some good old fashioned bonds. I think that Discovery fund that Shareguy likes might see some of my money early next year in addition to the significant investment I have in Barramundi and more moderate position in Marlin. The N.Z. economy to me feels like lukewarm dirty dishwater. Just calling it as I see it mate. Hope I'm wrong and the NZX goes gangbusters in 2024.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 24, 2023, 08:31 PMAnd what on earth does the market think is going on with MHJ....
should be down at 75 ....
its recession and who buys this stuff in a recession...
lets hope the next result is a true shocker and it stay down till 2025 ...
Remember, the market prices in forward earning expectations, not current earnings. So factoring in lower interest rates and therefore higher disposable spending, expecations are becoming more positive.
Out of the NZ Herald. Spending flat. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/boxing-day-spending-flat-disappointing-result-for-retailers/DTV3THVLHBEW3HIXYEUZCKHC5E/
Headline should really read, spending down 6.6% in real terms. Saying its flat doesn't tell the real picture, its down 6.6% in inflation adjusted terms and more on a per capita basis after the huge number of migrants arriving this year. Just one point of anecdotal data but it contributes towards the view we're in a real recession.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 27, 2023, 04:51 PMHeadline should really read, spending down 6.6% in real terms. Saying its flat doesn't tell the real picture, its down 6.6% in inflation adjusted terms and more on a per capita basis after the huge number of migrants arriving this year. Just one point of anecdotal data but it contributes towards the view we're in a real recession.
Pretty busy Boxing Day really ......Akl foot traffic up 20% i read somewhere
Retail sales might have been flat but Boxing Day spending has seen the hospitality sector soared with cafes, bars etc up 14.1% on last year.
Seems eating and drinking more popular than shopping .....much more fun I reckon
What recession and cost of living crisis .......a fegurement of economists and media inagination
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 28, 2023, 08:04 AMPretty busy Boxing Day really ......Akl foot traffic up 20% i read somewhere
Retail sales might have been flat but Boxing Day spending has seen the hospitality sector soared with cafes, bars etc up 14.1% on last year.
Seems eating and drinking more popular than shopping .....much more fun I reckon
What recession and cost of living crisis .......a fegurement of economists and media inagination
Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young said the real impact would be greater than 0.6 percent.
"Whilst a 0.6 percent decline is probably as good as we could have hoped for, it doesn't tell the whole story. You kind of have to overlay the economic factors and the immigration figures to really understand that is quite a significant decline from last year," she said.
RNZ (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/505646/boxing-day-sales-dip-retailers-blame-cost-of-living-interest-rates)
One man's flat vs one woman's significant decline...
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 28, 2023, 08:04 AMPretty busy Boxing Day really ......Akl foot traffic up 20% i read somewhere
Retail sales might have been flat but Boxing Day spending has seen the hospitality sector soared with cafes, bars etc up 14.1% on last year.
Seems eating and drinking more popular than shopping .....much more fun I reckon
What recession and cost of living crisis .......a fegurement of economists and media inagination
That's just tourists. Pretty easy to beat last December figures when we had no tourists back then.
I'm shopping in the UK market at the moment.
UK pension funds and institutions have reduced their holdings of UK shares down from 54% a few years ago to 4.6% now. Basically they've nothing left to sell.
Lot's of investment trusts have been selling at record discounts to NAV. Mid and small cap at bargain prices and domestic banks cheap as chips.
Once this bunch of crooks running the country go things should pick up.
Edit: Sorry I actually put this in the wrong 'thread'. Should really have been in stock picks or international. Admin feel free to move it.
From the AFR
"Retailers riding high on better-than-expected December and Boxing Day sales have been told to prepare for a tough slog in the first months of 2024, as consumers put a lid on spending. The Australian Retailers Association is expecting seasonal sales to rise 1.6 per cent (https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/boxing-day-pulls-in-shoppers-amid-inflation-woes-20221223-p5c8kt) on last year to $24 billion and a record for December.
"2024 for retailers is going to be a grind," Access Economics economist Chris Richardson tells AFR Weekend. "Things are going to get worse, but I'm not convinced there's going to be a cliff ... conditions will get better as the year advances, but mostly from July onwards."
Department store spending was a bright spot of the sales season and was set to rise by about 4.8 per cent, while clothes sales are also predicted to lift by more than 3 per cent on last year.
"Retailers have reported busy stores and high website traffic, which is in line with expectations given the deep discounts being offered," ARA chief executive Paul Zahra said. "Many retailers say they are off to a good start. Many retailers have reported a subdued Christmas trade and that the start of the Boxing Day sales have met their expectations".
Quote from: KW on Dec 28, 2023, 01:30 PMFrom the AFR
"Retailers riding high on better-than-expected December and Boxing Day sales have been told to prepare for a tough slog in the first months of 2024, as consumers put a lid on spending. The Australian Retailers Association is expecting seasonal sales to rise 1.6 per cent (https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/boxing-day-pulls-in-shoppers-amid-inflation-woes-20221223-p5c8kt) on last year to $24 billion and a record for December.
"2024 for retailers is going to be a grind," Access Economics economist Chris Richardson tells AFR Weekend. "Things are going to get worse, but I'm not convinced there's going to be a cliff ... conditions will get better as the year advances, but mostly from July onwards."
Department store spending was a bright spot of the sales season and was set to rise by about 4.8 per cent, while clothes sales are also predicted to lift by more than 3 per cent on last year.
"Retailers have reported busy stores and high website traffic, which is in line with expectations given the deep discounts being offered," ARA chief executive Paul Zahra said. "Many retailers say they are off to a good start. Many retailers have reported a subdued Christmas trade and that the start of the Boxing Day sales have met their expectations".
I'm afraid I been a bad boy and have been drinking and buying HLG shares at these lower levels and in a down ward trend. I would have to be an idiot, but just can't help myself and think I might have to go to Share buyers anonymous. I only putting an order in to try and support the sp, went out to mow the lawns and when I got back the order had gone through at 5.20. Didn't think sp would go that low. That is the third time it has happened this week lol ???
Quote from: seaweed on Dec 28, 2023, 04:30 PMI'm afraid I been a bad boy and have been drinking and buying HLG shares at these lower levels and in a down ward trend. I would have to be an idiot, but just can't help myself and think I might have to go to Share buyers anonymous. I only putting an order in to try and support the sp, went out to mow the lawns and when I got back the order had gone through at 5.20. Didn't think sp would go that low. That is the third time it has happened this week lol ???
Sounds like you're having fun seaweed. Many of us can relate to that feeling. Hay your up on the deal,so far. A great company but retail facing some challenges I reckon. Good luck with it.
Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 28, 2023, 05:35 PMSounds like you're having fun seaweed. Many of us can relate to that feeling. Hay your up on the deal,so far. A great company but retail facing some challenges I reckon. Good luck with it.
I'm up late tonight. Went to visit Sylvia Park and the Hally boys and the Glassy girls this late afternoon and again I say what recession. The Glassy girl told me that Hallensteins did better the Glassons on Boxing day. Hallensteins turnover was about $116K and Glassons only did 96K on that note I am off to bed good night.
I like how you visit the coalface seaweed and talk to the people on the floor.
Great way to see what is really happening. Customer numbers, are the shopping bags full or empty, anecdotes from customer talking to each other....particular in a fashion store when the seasonal ranges need to be on the mark, etc
My only concern is you always going to the same store which is at nz biggest mall and probably Hlg top performing revenue stores...I don't know, just guessing Sylvia park would be near the top just on foot traffic. Not sure if what you seeing at Sylvia Park is how the group will be travelling
It reminds me of the time I was visiting New York in 2005. My friends were raving about this new computer store which you had to make an appointment and had queue's of customers out the door everyday....I visited this store...and it was true. It was big foot print and two story's high. Unfortunately my brain was not engaged to what this business was creating outside of the 1 store I visited.
Anyway I see Apple shares where available for $2.18 in 2005...
Talk about lead a horse to water but can't force it to drink ...lol
Don't currently hold HLG myself...have held in past and certainly on my watch list for sometime in the future.
Good luck with your holding...you have a investment strategy that works for you.
It would seem retail is going to be a very tough space for 2024. I don't think there's any dispute about that.
An additional note of caution to keep in mind about the future, (no imminent risk at this point), if we see significant further declines in the year ahead with WHS (position 51 on the NZX50 based on a 6-month price average of $1.74) and HLG, (position 47 but that's based on an average of $5.98 so the shares are already a fair way south of there), is the prospect of NZX50 index exclusion.
In both cases the share price of these stocks would have to fall quite significantly from here, (my estimate 20%), and stay down for several months before the risk becomes more acute. Just signaling it's another risk to keep in mind in the year ahead. WHS looks slightly more vulnerable than HLG. The other prospect which is potentially more imminent is if there is a new float of significant enough size that grants that IPO automatic NZX50 inclusion, is WHS would be removed as its currently position 51.
Disc: No position in either stock.
Some staggering numbers here (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/27/what-happens-online-shopping-returns-waste-wardrobing-envirnoment-impact)in the total cost of doing business online. Sure, they're US figures but there must a similar story here. NZ may not have a 20% return rate but even half that would be hard to handle. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7D-OQHIfqU&ab_channel=RHINO)
Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 29, 2023, 09:39 AMSome staggering numbers here (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/27/what-happens-online-shopping-returns-waste-wardrobing-envirnoment-impact)in the total cost of doing business online. Sure, they're US figures but there must a similar story here. NZ may not have a 20% return rate but even half that would be hard to handle. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7D-OQHIfqU&ab_channel=RHINO)
Its probably still less than the amount of items stolen from physical stores, considering only a small proportion of sales are done online. Physical store returns will be just as busy as people head to the malls to exchange items or a store credit.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/133055708/retail-crime-costing-more-than-25-billion-a-year-retail-nz-survey
Costco has been in Australia for 15 years now, and NZ one. Which just reminds me how far NZ is from being a first world country - we miss out on so much. Same goes for not having IKEA. What hope do we have of attracting a third supermarket brand to the country when one of the world's largest retailers barely has a presence here.
If it does eventually expand outside of Auckland (not holding my breath, they have been talking about it for four years and still nothing has happened), expect it to take a bite out of local retail.
"Costco is quickly racing to $5bn in annual sales in Australia and more than 1.5 million paid-up members at its warehouse-style supermarket stores, as the chain emerges as a new force in Australian retail with sales that now easily eclipse retail heavyweights Myer, David Jones, Target and Officeworks.
Its sales in 2023 lifted almost 20 per cent – at a time when supermarket majors Woolworths and Coles could only manage sales growth in the region of 5 per cent – with the US-based retailer also slashing its prices in Australia last year to counter fresh competitive challenges from its key supermarket rivals.
Costco Australia reported total sales of $4.4bn in 2023, up 19.8 per cent from $3.67bn in 2022 which represented a 30 per cent increase on the sales performance in 2021. "
Quote from: KW on Jan 02, 2024, 10:31 AMCostco has been in Australia for 15 years now, and NZ one. Which just reminds me how far NZ is from being a first world country - we miss out on so much. Same goes for not having IKEA. What hope do we have of attracting a third supermarket brand to the country when one of the world's largest retailers barely has a presence here.
If it does eventually expand outside of Auckland (not holding my breath, they have been talking about it for four years and still nothing has happened), expect it to take a bite out of local retail.
"Costco is quickly racing to $5bn in annual sales in Australia and more than 1.5 million paid-up members at its warehouse-style supermarket stores, as the chain emerges as a new force in Australian retail with sales that now easily eclipse retail heavyweights Myer, David Jones, Target and Officeworks.
Its sales in 2023 lifted almost 20 per cent – at a time when supermarket majors Woolworths and Coles could only manage sales growth in the region of 5 per cent – with the US-based retailer also slashing its prices in Australia last year to counter fresh competitive challenges from its key supermarket rivals.
Costco Australia reported total sales of $4.4bn in 2023, up 19.8 per cent from $3.67bn in 2022 which represented a 30 per cent increase on the sales performance in 2021. "
I guess there are pros and cons about living in NZ vs living in one of the big retail hubs of the world.
However - it does not make a lot of sense to enjoy the solitude, space and (still sort of ok-ish) nature in NZ and at the same time whine about insufficient competition in the retail sector. Its this thing about having your cake and eat it too ...
Hey - Sydney, Singapore, KL, or even LA are just a plane hop away ... and anybody who wants can go there and shop until they drop.
Apart from that - plenty of space in Rollestons industrial area, and it sounds, the council gave already green light for Costco and Ikea and even built already the road connections and a couple of big roundabouts surrounded by empty fields. Does not mean though, that Costco and IKEA will come, but it would be easier for them - we shall see.
https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/350027559/could-rolleston-host-south-islands-ikea-costco
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 02, 2024, 11:07 AMI guess there are pros and cons about living in NZ vs living in one of the big retail hubs of the world.
However - it does not make a lot of sense to enjoy the solitude, space and (still sort of ok-ish) nature in NZ and at the same time whine about insufficient competition in the retail sector. Its this thing about having your cake and eat it too ...
Australia still has solitude, space and nature (in fact far more of it), and still has all the retail stores. I'm not complaining about NZ not being London or New York. We should at least be able to keep up with Aussie. Its not like its more difficult to ship things from Sydney to Auckland than from Sydney to Perth.
The consents that were issued are to a greedy developer not the companies, who is now trying to extort Costco and IKEA into signing up to lease the land on the basis of "you dont have anywhere else to go". So basically screwing it for the rest of us as both companies go "yeah, nah". This is what I meant when I said they have been talking about this for 4 years already and nobody has signed anything. Hopefully the developer goes broke, and Costco gets to buy the land in a bankruptcy sale LOL
Interestingly, Diana Clement wrote an opinion piece in the New Zealand Herald the other day that most of the products in pack and save that were available at Costco we're cheaper at pak n save
Quote from: KW on Jan 02, 2024, 12:36 PMAustralia still has solitude, space and nature (in fact far more of it), and still has all the retail stores. I'm not complaining about NZ not being London or New York. We should at least be able to keep up with Aussie. Its not like its more difficult to ship things from Sydney to Auckland than from Sydney to Perth.
The consents that were issued are to a greedy developer not the companies, who is now trying to extort Costco and IKEA into signing up to lease the land on the basis of "you dont have anywhere else to go". So basically screwing it for the rest of us as both companies go "yeah, nah". This is what I meant when I said they have been talking about this for 4 years already and nobody has signed anything. Hopefully the developer goes broke, and Costco gets to buy the land in a bankruptcy sale LOL
To be honest - not sure, Australia is a good example. The handful of times I was (as tourist) in Australia, I found that nearly everything which matters to a visitor is even more expensive over there than in NZ, and the increased choice is often compensated with still lower quality. Example: Australia has Aldi, and we, knowing it from Germany, went into it. Very disappointing experience - in Germany you can buy at Aldi really good (i.e. good quality and tasty) food at very reasonable prices. The stuff you can buy in Australia is tasteless at best. Too americanised.
We clearly should avoid to get closer to Australia. Not a lot we can learn from them, and their accents are
terrible as well :) ;
Re Rolleston - I have neither any insider information nor any interest in the development there (other than driving from time to time to the big petrol station they built in the middle of nowhere - the price is right).
It sounds however you are emotionally pretty involved. What happened? Did they buy the land before you could make an offer :) ?
Quote from: Basil on Jan 02, 2024, 01:02 PMInterestingly, Diana Clement wrote an opinion piece in the New Zealand Herald the other day that most of the products in pack and save that were available at Costco we're cheaper at pak n save
Thats called competition. Bet you they are not cheaper outside of Auckland. And I would also bet that in the absence of strong competition Costco NZ is not cutting prices the way they have done so in Australia.
But the value of Costco is not in buying the cheap stuff that supermarkets sell, its the big discounts on high end items, and its own Kirkland brand. Like its dog food :-)
At least if we get one in Chch it will have a liquor section. The alcohol they sold was worth the membership alone. Anecdote, I went to the Cloudy Bay wine dinner and the reps were really cagey about whether they still had the Costco contract. That was the real reason why you cant buy Cloudy Bay in NZ, whereas I (and all the other millions of members) were buying it cheap in Costco worldwide. Cloudy Bay like to portray themselves as still being small, boutique and premium, but the volumes required to supply Costco is huge. Costco is the biggest wine buyer in the world, and they only sell 200 labels.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 02, 2024, 05:27 PMIt sounds however you are emotionally pretty involved. What happened? Did they buy the land before you could make an offer :) ?
No, I just want Costco and IKEA. Their absence is making me homesick for Australia lol. I dont need reminding how we dont have access to things that the entire rest of the western world has.
Mate who lives just up the road from Costco reckons you're not missing much.
Signed up and went once and never again. The best "bargain" he reckons is you get Covid for free. So many people crammed into that place it's a breeding ground for it.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 02, 2024, 09:17 PMMate who lives just up the road from Costco reckons you're not missing much.
Signed up and went once and never again. The best "bargain" he reckons is you get Covid for free. So many people crammed into that place it's a breeding ground for it.
I've heard its quietened down a bit, after all the tyre kickers had a look, decided they couldnt afford to buy anything, and didnt renew their subscription.
Its worth the membership fee even if you only go there once every 3 months just to buy dog food and flea treatments. Not having a liquor section isnt helping, that was the other best reason for joining. But stock changes all the time, even if you didnt find something you wanted to buy on one visit doesnt mean that there wont be new stuff in there next time. Was always a great place for buying gifts, and catering for events. I heard all the Christmassy stuff sold out the week before Thanksgiving.
For anyone looking to join, the best way to use Costco is to join the FB fans group which posts which items are on rebate that day. Thats when you make huge savings. Or if you want to check what's in stock.
BBB made a profit ....
People love their beds and bathrooms ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/bed-bath-and-beyond-nz-profits-defy-downturn-and-climb-75pc/5UJ2A2NDURHJVEJLIDMYKUNKRM/
You can get exposure to this sector via JYC Joyce listed on ASX.They own Bedshed .
Quote from: KW on Jan 03, 2024, 12:47 PMI've heard its quietened down a bit, after all the tyre kickers had a look, decided they couldnt afford to buy anything, and didnt renew their subscription.
Did a small study back in the day at Uni in my optional marketing paper on the cost of packaging. You'd be really surprised at the percentage of cost that is often related to packaging compared to the product cost itself. I hear many of Costco's products are only available in very large quantities, best suited to large families. I'm not sure their products are cheaper per se, (and Diana Clement of the N.Z. herald thinks most stuff available at Pak n Save is cheaper), it's just that they are taking advantage of cost efficiencies with large quantity packaging.
More likely, a lot of people have found the Costco hype and so-called bargains, not worth the time, effort and expense of driving out of their way for.
Funny this comment on a Reddit thread -
Briscoes is under severe strain as well, tumbleweeds through the store as everyone has gone to Kmart.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 06, 2024, 09:38 AMDid a small study back in the day at Uni in my optional marketing paper on the cost of packaging. You'd be really surprised at the percentage of cost that is often related to packaging compared to the product cost itself. I hear many of Costco's products are only available in very large quantities, best suited to large families. I'm not sure their products are cheaper per se, (and Diana Clement of the N.Z. herald thinks most stuff available at Pak n Save is cheaper), it's just that they are taking advantage of cost efficiencies with large quantity packaging.
More likely, a lot of people have found the Costco hype and so-called bargains, not worth the time, effort and expense of driving out of their way for.
We joined and only visited 3 times when in the area. Bought a roasted chuck for $7 each time and that was it.
Unfortunately didn't tick the 'don't renew' box and recently found I been billed another $60 membership fee.
Never mind, family's moving to the area soon, maybe I'll find something worth the visit eventually.
Great stuff KW ... better visit BRIS and see if they have any traditional real kettles else have to visit a camping shop in northern Sweden ...
The coffee and chocolate shop in landskrona is one of the best in sweden and will stuff a bike bag next time ...
Quote from: Basil on Jan 06, 2024, 09:38 AMDid a small study back in the day at Uni in my optional marketing paper on the cost of packaging. You'd be really surprised at the percentage of cost that is often related to packaging compared to the product cost itself. I hear many of Costco's products are only available in very large quantities, best suited to large families. I'm not sure their products are cheaper per se, (and Diana Clement of the N.Z. herald thinks most stuff available at Pak n Save is cheaper), it's just that they are taking advantage of cost efficiencies with large quantity packaging.
More likely, a lot of people have found the Costco hype and so-called bargains, not worth the time, effort and expense of driving out of their way for.
If you remember, Costco is actually a warehouse operation for other businesses, with a side business of allowing consumers to buy business products. So sizing is designed to make it operationally efficient for businesses to use, like a restaurant or bar buying a pack of 4 dozen toilet paper rolls. If you have the storage available in your home, its great. I'm still using the giant roll of Chux cloths I got when I lived in Australia, and the 5 litre bottle of laundry detergent actually lasted me years.
Aussie retail up 2% in Nov, beats forecasts (which were for 1.2% increase). CPI out tomorrow.
Retail in Oz can't be doing too bad if JBH JB HiFi share price anything to go buy
Gone from $44 to about $60 in last few months .....bean on a real roll.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 15, 2024, 01:14 PMRetail in Oz can't be doing too bad if JBH JB HiFi share price anything to go buy
Gone from $44 to about $60 in last few months .....bean on a real roll.
Also Super Retail - putting in new all time highs, up 6% today. Up about 60% since its July low. Retail is definitely not dead in Australia, just got to be selective about which ones you choose. Quality will out.
Electronic card spending fell at the end of last year which might be bad news for retail.
Retail spending in December was down on last year despite population growth and steep price rises, a sign many households have put away their credit cards.
Spending was down 0.6 per cent on the same month the previous year and Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said during the past 12 months, spending levels have effectively been tracking sideways.
''That's despite a population growth of around 2 per cent and price rises of close to 5 per cent. Putting that together signals that many New Zealand households are keeping their credit cards in their pocket."
December 2023 was down 2 per cent on November with spending in all retail categories taking a hit last month, according to new data from Stats NZ.
Stats NZ data on electronic card transactions for December 2023 showed spending in the retail industries decreased by $132 million (2 per cent) while spending in core retail was down $119m (2 per cent).
Spending on durables (whiteware and appliances) and fuel had the biggest slump, down $33m (2 per cent) and $19m (3.4 per cent) respectively.
Spending on apparel was down 2.9 per cent ($10m) while motor vehicle spending was down 2.2 per cent ($4.6m).
There are 25,000 more people on welfare benefits than this time last year. Nobody seems to be talking about that in the media. Immigration is really just the replacement of expensive Kiwi labour with cheap immigrant labour. There is little benefit to the economy - unless you are an employer or own a rental property.
Ignoring month to month movements in seasonally adjusted sales - and just looking at this month vs same month last year - apparel sales in december was down 6.9%. This follows a 4.7% decline in November and a whopping 12.2% decline in october. So calendar year q4 sales were down 7.8% on Q4 CY22. as always there will be a wide dispersion of retailer performance and some bifurcation in the mkt, but directionally, hard to paint a positive picture of apparel sales in NZ.
Todays herald says Harvey Norman had a 22 percent fall in sales 2023 against 2022.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/harvey-normans-55m-profit-becomes-21m-loss-real-estate-devaluation-effect/HXWSCK7UWVGY3FKN5J2LDRRK2Y/
Quote from: KW on Jan 17, 2024, 02:07 PMThere are 25,000 more people on welfare benefits than this time last year. Nobody seems to be talking about that in the media. Immigration is really just the replacement of expensive Kiwi labour with cheap immigrant labour. There is little benefit to the economy - unless you are an employer or own a rental property.
Look KW, if you need next time a doctor I suggest you leave the extremely limited number of available medical professionals to the rest of us and use instead one of the unemployed while too expensive Kiwi doctors you are talking about. Please do the same thing if you need a nurse, an old age carer, an engineer or a teacher.
From a personal perspective - while I realise that many people fall for fact-free populist slogans like yours above ... could we try to keep this forum a bit more fact based and populism free?
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jan 17, 2024, 02:15 PMIgnoring month to month movements in seasonally adjusted sales - and just looking at this month vs same month last year - apparel sales in december was down 6.9%. This follows a 4.7% decline in November and a whopping 12.2% decline in october. So calendar year q4 sales were down 7.8% on Q4 CY22. as always there will be a wide dispersion of retailer performance and some bifurcation in the mkt, but directionally, hard to paint a positive picture of apparel sales in NZ.
To be fair, the PCP was exceptionally strong though so maybe not as dire as it seems. Certainly, HLG SP holding up better than I expected so far this year.
HN ...
well winner() this one is down and JBHI aus will be interesting numbers for the 1st QTR some way away...
A womens fashion designer has said AUS feels slow at the moment ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/harvey-norman-makes-a103b-revenue-in-new-zealand-down-30pc/3PYEFDXTVJHZRGIAELD23ZOA5U/
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 18, 2024, 02:54 PMA womens fashion designer has said AUS feels slow at the moment ...
Taylor Swift will save them! If you're not selling your collection to Swifties you're doing it wrong.
https://www.universalstore.com/collections/eras-tour-outfits
OH YES well said!!!
US retail up... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/retail-sales-december-2023.html
How is the NZ and AUS shopper going to do this year... will it be like looking for some little green shoots...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/green-shoots.asp#:~:text=Ben%20Bernanke%20used%20the%20term,we%20are%20on%20solid%20footing.%22
how are your potted plants doing ....
In order to cut costs could retail suddenly find the low hanging fruit will be the ESG report staff?
and the time and cost of interacting with the organisations that want to monitor these public companties?
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 22, 2024, 05:35 PMIn order to cut costs could retail suddenly find the low hanging fruit will be the ESG report staff?
and the time and cost of interacting with the organisations that want to monitor these public companties?
In an environment where money is no longer free, and shareholders are demanding returns or taking their money elsewhere, ESG lack of return is becoming more apparent.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
ESG investing is dying on Wall Street. Here's why
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 22, 2024, 05:35 PMIn order to cut costs could retail suddenly find the low hanging fruit will be the ESG report staff?
and the time and cost of interacting with the organisations that want to monitor these public companties?
SmartShares seem really keen on ESG - Now six ESG funds to choose from. Doing quite well too (as much as I hate to say that). Looks like the pendulum has swung firmly their way. It will of course swing back as pendulums always do (or do they?).
https://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds
If Chump a Dump Trump gets in ESG on wall street will go out the window and Jamie D says hes great for business...
Now we grew up on green with the book "One Planet" but thats another story and off topic....
If inflation is down by xmas a winter SP stock slump in retail may be an OPPO..
but the COMP PROPS popped a bit today indicating some money coming out fix yield is making its ways back into the market ?
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 30, 2024, 02:02 PMhttps://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release
Australia's retail sales tumbled in December by the most since the depths of the 2020 Covid-19 lockdowns as cost of living pressures erode the budgets of households.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released on Tuesday, shows total retail turnover fell 2.7 per cent in December, compared to a 1.7 per cent decline that markets had expected prior to the release of official data.
A monthly decline of 2.7 per cent is the worst result for the series since a 4.2 per cent drop in August 2020 when Melbourne was subject to strict lockdowns that forced many industries to pause as a result of Covid-19.
Look at the three sectors where the falls are biggest. It'll be interesting to see the impact on NZ retail stocks with Aust exposure in those sectors - HLG, KMD etc.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-news-godfreys-group-enters-voluntary-administration/1cb0f920-4665-4823-8e95-175e9c67ba53
Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 30, 2024, 03:55 PMLook at the three sectors where the falls are biggest. It'll be interesting to see the impact on NZ retail stocks with Aust exposure in those sectors - HLG, KMD etc.
The Aussie Labor Govt just canned their upcoming tax cuts as well. Just like NZ Labour - campaigned on a promise not to do that, then went and did that.
Aus inflation outlook coming down interesting to see where the 1st qtr will be....
"For December alone, CPI was 3.4%, also lower than the 3.7% pace predicted by economists."
Axios with a remarkable little article titled: "The retail apocalypse never happened"
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/cre-retail-commercial-real-estate-crash-vacancy
A good retail space is getting harder to find with the vacancy rate for shopping centers nationwide at a 15-year low.
Why it matters: The COVID-era doomsday predictions were wrong.
What they're saying: We haven't seen the apocalypse everyone was expecting, Thomas LaSalvia, head of commercial real estate economics at Moody's Analytics, tells Axios.
Retail commercial real estate is "back for good," per a recent report from Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate services firm.
By the numbers: The vacancy rate at U.S. shopping centers — essentially any retail spaces outside the mall — fell to its lowest level since Cushman began tracking in 2007.
Average asking rents in the sector were 4.1% higher in Q4 compared with a year earlier. They're up 17% cumulatively from 2019, and 41% over the past decade, per Cushman.
Zoom out: Demand for retail space stayed strong overall in 2023 thanks to a growing economy and strong labor market that kept Americans shopping. Retail sales were up 3.2% in 2023 from the previous year.
Tak for the post LEK.. great news for the US market and im sure winner(n) will be waiting to chart the results .. pastels at the ready..
Maybe no landing required with US job numbers out tomorrow?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/january-consumer-spending-up-hospitality-spending-drops/IPPCS7BJWZHWNBUMWUPGLQ5QSI/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/queen-street-an-economic-powerhouse-but-businesses-struggling/I6SVXYXL7NCORIWM4NC4TO5AXA/
From Vicinity's earnings report today ...
Retail sales
Total portfolio retail sales growth of 1.5% in 1H FY24 was largely driven by food including fresh food, dining,
and supermarkets as well as sporting goods, cosmetics, and retail services.
Month on month retail sales growth moderated over 1H FY24, reflecting the softening of consumer demand
amid cost-of-living pressures, together with the cycling of particularly strong trading in the prior comparable
period.
Shoppers continue to show a willingness and capacity to spend, but are more discerning and value-conscious,
highlighted by the strong patronage across the portfolio during the Black Friday and Boxing Day sales events.
October was the first month where portfolio sales growth was negative since the recovery from the pandemic,
however combined November and December retail sales were up 1.3% relative to a strong prior year,
highlighting that shoppers are viewing Black Friday as a key part of the broader Christmas trading period.
Lower Apparel & Footwear, Homewares and Jewellery sales in 1H FY24 reflect cycling of exceptional growth
rates in recent years, compounded by significantly elevated living costs Australian households face today.
Small and Medium Enterprise ('SME') retailers are well positioned in a moderating retail environment, with
sales increasing 6.1% in 1H FY24, as shoppers continue to show a strong preference for SME-oriented
categories including services, food and dining, and other experiential retail.
Same-store luxury sales were up 0.7% for 1H FY24, also rolling off exceptional growth rates in the prior year.
Furthermore, brand performance was mixed, with the flagship luxury houses continuing to outperform.
Mr Huddle said, "There is no doubt that elevated living costs for Australian households are now impacting
consumption, particularly across the discretionary goods categories. That said, with international tourism
nearing pre-pandemic levels, migration at historical highs and with a tight employment market, we continue
to observe resilience. This resilience is supporting retailer confidence which continues to be reflected in our
operating metrics.
"The performance of the retail sector in 2024 ultimately depends on the level of inflation, when interest rates
will peak and the extent to which employment markets remain tight."
ANZ quarterly retail report:
https://eu.watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Merchant_and_Card_Spending_January_2024.pdf?data=DhZAW5pNirsgovBdALYwogjcrWZAB6DXgwQPV%2F%2FR4Y8c2U5HXzipnPnjShFNDgLRga0%2Fl4fXY0u7%2BiuK0FSiPf3f8DqlXlWyAWUBt2mmlUcmGX0Tmofdze32IzI0sbKp2ak%2FfZg%2FdUqoYa3nvb0oAJCQQ8IjxW1qQSVQhBIKw9sJWDxpQjNWG1foXicMmOO49gQAFrEBODGDje9yqZwt5hy2noj1pNJ2k2%2Fn8ZJkufaEpisIK2TgG1sJ0RrJP41jrFHqjq92hMUKGoIXhl%2B7Wgvuhx9KYdbLBUeSEvAEnxhJmCMtCnzbVqONcGEViyznoP3bwxgatCw0KjwOdwG6dQGZIlpznS1VR3czpZ9LMHgQam6Iz50SCOpx%2F0YEUx48nUiqiKzRiwffC8oCZn4kYPO4PwWFn8HomFYDwuDRfAXPOOTcL20TPZ757CRUlwhb3u9apCDChY%2FuuQKvaRhTuewU2zXvaxjPAll8qvbq%2BuoxHv%2BlMTQV9I9J3EpsQiUh3q493q%2FdrtMqz%2BcP5X0zWqOKY%2BEpYHeLMB512bh2YlaexvpdvSXgJTyWpHqsJpOIwxlCEkLZG0G%2Btcg5%2FvihW1ifmIgsWAhVOLNvs%2BRF264xOErGO3fcJjVZY1RiB1ezmdIpm0dsPZB1rKMPBSXHJrww9FPZQtaWwDQCmUMmjUqcNFRDfJpi%2FhWujg8jiqZRIlSU9AIuy5MYSuIudAjfxnlhI30u%2B3M7FKHDRh8SK6WDQ5EybKlVQVNy8jX2yN8U5sbYvMmOrIYPR0vuOesjSVqnkmMJmmAt04TO%2B%2BHx%2FmqeoIG1lvWjwe18xTmvEa6ly4FvcccfNMh6ffueuNW1cTdu6H6X%2FM3ygQDzGG0c6n3BCfQMaRTO02FSrMHJw2ou&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Merchant_and_Card_Spending_January_2024.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D69cdedbb5c283073b0cd75c5c976353a1b2e86892afbbfeeb74ced936f1bb469%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAW3DTAMO2PNZSGZ3G%252F20240215%252Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20240215T060526Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost
means a contraction ....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/most-retail-sales-took-a-tumble-in-december-quarter/B2DIZC53WRHSLNEZMBJA5BCBXI/
Note: Article listed not directly related to retail listed stocks.
----------------------------------------------------------------
well this lot wont be spending up big on retail therapy ....
amazing with such a flat economy in technical recession that retail stocks havnt crashed ...
wonder how small retail business is doing and the next QTR stats for the winter will be the numbers awaited..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350206651/where-do-all-axed-journalists-find-work-now
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 09, 2024, 01:52 PMNote: Article listed not directly related to retail listed stocks.
----------------------------------------------------------------
well this lot wont be spending up big on retail therapy ....
amazing with such a flat economy in technical recession that retail stocks havnt crashed ...
wonder how small retail business is doing and the next QTR stats for the winter will be the numbers awaited..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350206651/where-do-all-axed-journalists-find-work-now
So - where could journalists find a job?
Apparently - they are looking for journalists in NZ:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/09-07-2022/too-many-jobs-not-enough-reporters-it-is-a-very-good-time-to-be-a-journalist
Apart from that ...
Every spin factory (and with populism rising, they have more of these) needs a handful of technically good journalists without a conscience. Just look at the stars from Fox news ... maybe some of the NZ journalists have as well what it takes to set up a poker face when spreading well paid for lies?
Our new goberment needs to produce endless lies and spin to justify e.g. cutting committed and required school projects and to spread guns and tobacco, surely - they will need some more news spinners?
And what's with the honest journalists?
There are still a number of high quality new outlets in NZ (RNZ, The Listener, some daily newspapers) - they need journalists.
... and endless opportunities for good journalists overseas: LinkedIn just lists 416 journalism vacancies only in Australia!
and for good writers who want to change the industry?
I remember my company used to employ a number of technical writers to write e.g. User manuals and other documentation. Good jobs, and I don't remember we had a flood of applicants if we looked for another technical writer.
Plenty of foreign companies could well do with some writers with reasonable command of the English language - pick any manual of a Chinese product to understand what I am talking about. More job opportunities.
No doubt plenty of jobs for the ones who are any good. No need to worry about reduced retail spending.
well then NZ can join AUS as a new state ... its was section 6.
After all that economy is what appears to be holding up NZ retail companies...
Retail needs populations that are prosperous.
Interestingly I saw on CNBC this morning that the retail index is one of the top performing in the US, up 12% year to date, well and truly outperforming the DOW and S&P500.
In N.Z. we are seeing a more challenging environment caused in no small way by the extreme cost of housing here that's lead to a real bifurcation in how retailers are performing. Value for money really counts now as well as excellent stock control and top-quality management. HLG facing up to the challenge really well, non-value brands like Kathmandu, which is frankly Kathmandon't, really struggling. Value brands with very poor management are also struggling like WHS.
Turners also doing very well, closed at $4.80 yesterday, significantly above its NZX50 index inclusion price of $4.66 mid-December and that's after paying a 6 cent divvy in late January, (total incl divvy, 20 cents above index inclusion). Disc: I added more in February at ~ $4.60. I think Turners has a very bright future ahead of it and is superbly well managed. Classic GARP stock, buy and hold for the long term. HLG might also be worth considering again at some point as the cost-of-living crisis eases and interest rates fall.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 09, 2024, 08:30 PMInterestingly I saw on CNBC this morning that the retail index is one of the top performing in the US, up 12% year to date, well and truly outperforming the DOW and S&P500.
In N.Z. we are seeing a more challenging environment caused in no small way by the extreme cost of housing here that's lead to a real bifurcation in how retailers are performing. Value for money really counts now as well as excellent stock control and top-quality management. HLG facing up to the challenge really well, non-value brands like Kathmandu, which is frankly Kathmandon't, really struggling. Value brands with very poor management are also struggling like WHS.
Turners also doing very well, closed at $4.80 yesterday, significantly above its NZX50 index inclusion price of $4.66 mid-December and that's after paying a 6 cent divvy in late January, (total incl divvy, 20 cents above index inclusion). Disc: I added more in February at ~ $4.60. I think Turners has a very bright future ahead of it and is superbly well managed. Classic GARP stock, buy and hold for the long term. HLG might also be worth considering again at some point as the cost-of-living crisis eases and interest rates fall.
Love that word bifurcation
Makes me think of a canine holiday park
I started tracking Apparel and Durables card spend (stats nz) when pandemic struck to see the impacts over time ......and maybe to assess when markets have become more normal.
Updated chart below
Durables line getting back to pre-covid trend ......and maybe apparel will still see a period of flat/declining sales
Chart shows $ of the day .....I should do it on a volume or inflation adjusted basis ......probably both below trend now.
IMG_5690.png
Stocks moving up on the DOW are industrials and TRAVEL....
Some BIO tech is attracting a bid...
money moving away from the top tech firms..
NZ may be flat but is that a own goal and a period of reform (restructing) is going to be required.
Briscoe Group Limited (NZX/ASX code: BGP)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/427855
France to crack down on fast fashion ...
is this the start of regulations in some countries to limit the access to cheap clothing that is made in sweat shops...
cant see it here?
That could hit some retailers in NZ and AUS...
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240314-french-parliament-votes-to-slow-down-fast-fashion
Wow! will super markets follow suit and could the old ways of dealing with customers come back into fashion?
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/14/business/self-checkout-dollar-general/index.html
Will this impact prices down under and by how much?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/15/ceo-of-top-ocean-freight-carrier-hapag-lloyd-on-global-economy-demand.html
At the bottom ... cant get any worse ... someone pass the TUI... or the brickbat.. how long has the economy been in recession now? Technical or not so technical.
Is there any technology being used to calculate this beside an excel spreadsheet down in wellington... Worst ever spreadsheet ever created by the way. Once you try the build an addin you will find out why... now Lotus 1,1 had a great french graphics and statistical add in. It was smooth fast and had a great range of pastels for graphing...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-is-new-zealand-in-recession-we-find-out-today/Y32IL4XXMBH6BC66XYWGNPHGPE/
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 21, 2024, 01:28 PMAt the bottom ... cant get any worse ... someone pass the TUI... or the brickbat.. how long has the economy been in recession now? Technical or not so technical.
Is there any technology being used to calculate this beside an excel spreadsheet down in wellington... Worst ever spreadsheet ever created by the way. Once you try the build an addin you will find out why... now Lotus 1,1 had a great french graphics and statistical add in. It was smooth fast and had a great range of pastels for graphing...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-is-new-zealand-in-recession-we-find-out-today/Y32IL4XXMBH6BC66XYWGNPHGPE/
The thing with the future is - nobody can predict it, not even smart tools, smart analysts, smart money, dumb politicians or state employees.
What anybody without the use of any fancy tools can observe is that the economy is already for some time scratching along a low lying plateau. Whether its the bottom and all up from here, or whether there is another dip - nobody knows.
What we do know is that the great depression (1929 - 1933) took 4 years, the long depression (1873 - 1878) 5 years and NZ longest post WW2 depression (the GFC - 2008 - 2009) took only 1.5 years.
So - how bad are things? Great depression stuff with unemployment rates around 40%? Hardly. GFC stuff with banking collapsing all over the place? Not really, though, what isn't can still come, but it doesn't really feel that bad, doesn't it?
So I guess - we are probably looking at something taking between 6 months and less than 18 months ... and we are already 6 months in the thing. Does not sound that bad, doesn't it - and lets face it - it could be over before we know it. As well - share indices typically starting to recover 6 months before the recession ends.
Oops - is this the time too buy?
You sure it did not start well before january 2023?
sure felt like it...
but as you say BP ... GFC took a while to recover and still the dow rolled over in 2011 ... rook well over 5 years to recover some sectors.
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 21, 2024, 03:18 PMYou sure it did not start well before january 2023?
sure felt like it...
but as you say BP ... GFC took a while to recover and still the dow rolled over in 2011 ... rook well over 5 years to recover some sectors.
Not quite sure where January 2023 coming from, but anyway ...
The official recession is now 2 quarters (starting in July 2023).
If I look at the NZX50 as the relevant index, then it was in Bear market territory from something like Dec 21 to Jun 22 (6 months) - and since then the stock market is basically bouncing off a plateau around 10.700 - and at the moment its not even that bad (around 11.900).
NZX50-5y.JPG
So, yes - you could say, not a lot happened in the last 5 years - but this includes as well that not a lot of bad stuff happened.
Obviously - the reserve banks pumped a lot of money into the economies, which inflated them, and now they are sucking the money back out of the economies and deflating them.
NZX just jittered around in the last 4 years, which means it lost something like 20% (into inflation), but otherwise we are just treading water (and jittering a bit).
Question is - do you expect this bottom trawling to continue (and for how long), do you expect this to drop into a deep hole - or is it going uphill from here?
I suspect it will be a long L-shaped recovery, but how long depends on how long the free world allows Putin and Nethanjahu and potentially Xi and Trump to play wargames.
Might be useful to look at the WW II economies. Dow Jones (admittedly with some ups and downs) was in an uptrend from 1932 to 1966.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
Not sure I expect worse for the years to come.
"I suspect it will be a long L-shaped recovery"
was that not similar to the GFC ? seemed to take many years to recover.
After all is the stock market an indicator of how the real econonmy is doing?
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 22, 2024, 04:31 PM"I suspect it will be a long L-shaped recovery"
was that not similar to the GFC ? seemed to take many years to recover.
After all is the stock market an indicator of how the real econonmy is doing?
After all is the stock market an indicator of how the real econonmy is doing?I think it is an indicator how the market expects the economy to go
Ok this is not related to retail directly but it does have KMD in the picture...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-silver-lining-behind-a-struggling-economy-stock-takes/6B4VUMD4RVDKZBOTCY7TQAHYCI/
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 22, 2024, 05:16 PMOk this is not related to retail directly but it does have KMD in the picture...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-silver-lining-behind-a-struggling-economy-stock-takes/6B4VUMD4RVDKZBOTCY7TQAHYCI/
So - what would KMD have to sell to follow the stellar (well, all is relativ) recent performance of the WHS share? Maybe they should sell Kathmandu and keep RipCurl and Obos?
yes or rather KMD is going to have to something very special and maybe bring in ROD DUKE to show them how to survive in retail...
Even HLG has done better and they dont sell anything special ...
There appears to be special magic pixie dust known to only a few retail magicians ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRSBVSw_vss
Markets with Maddy ...
Retail in the spotlight ....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison-briscoes-secrets/FPOFPVKMAICRSCK2KQNQNLNKDE/
Rod Duke... interesting interview.
MHJ realsing that logistics is important in high cost enivronments. Like it or not every retail listed business is important to the country even KMD.....
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/428541/415551.pdf
Notice in the Rod Duke interview Rod doubling down by investing in their new warehousing operations.. 100 milliom over 3 years.
WHS jewel in the crown of their oeprations.... how is WHS going to do its on line now... just another market customer?
This next 4 qtrs are critical to seeing NZ retail SP's holding this level going forward lucky most have an AUS stores...
https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/gross-domestic-product-gdp/
This page is the one no doubt everyone is watching...
could it be that the actuall recession is just the normal process of the RBNZ just trying to normalise it balance sheet. It was always going to happen with reserve banks having dumped that much money into the market at high speed .
International retail ... H&M doing fine thank you...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/hm-shares-jump-13percent-as-profit-smashes-expectations-.html
Scentre (Westfield) AGM today.
"For the first 12 weeks of this year, we have welcomed over 118 million customer visits. This is an increase of 2.1% or 2.4 million more visits when compared to the same 12 weeks in 2023.
Total business partner sales for January and February this year are 3.1% higher compared to 2023 and 13.4% higher than 2019, or $3.5 billion higher since 2019."
Bit of a retail stall happening ...
LVMH Revenue Falls 2% in Q1 as Luxury Slowdown Hits
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lvmh-revenue-falls-2-q1-155836265.html
inflation Its official or some guage anyway .. 4
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/how-far-has-inflation-dropped-new-cpi-figures-to-reveal-progress/GVFWVV67BVFLLCYQNJKWBMDJ3E/
LVMH organic revenue up 3 perccent?
20 something Billion...
ok what is organic? in the speak?
well this is really just fantastic news ....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/tough-economy-for-another-12-months-warns-infometrics-economist/AZX2JJCISRBXDMXDPPKVKMGAPI/
3 years of slogging along?
will this sector reprice when the OCR across markets drop in 24 months...
HLG simple hasnt done its usual cycical sell off....
MHJ has broken itself again .... distressed asset. another smash and grab last week.
but with ROB on the board they may be taking remedical action ... NZ is a Disaster for them. AUS is now there main market they must close some more stores in NZ do they actually need them? They are making a lot of changes and fast. Will it pay off for them?
There is a lot to play for isnt there. At least they dont have to worry about fast fashion dumping of ESG waste...
a mall in central hamilton just empty last evening.
will retail in NZ recover?
Is this in fact the time we realise that the TOPIC missing is INFLATION...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/pce-inflation-march-2024-key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-2point8percent.html
and what is likely to be the recovery .... if and when...
is the market now stuck...
Amazon outperforms ...
be interesting to know the break down ...
web services versus warehouse and the types of products shipped..
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-2024.html
cramer says the US economy is actually not holding up as well as the FED thinks ...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 01, 2024, 09:39 AMAmazon outperforms ...
be interesting to know the break down ...
web services versus warehouse and the types of products shipped..
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-2024.html
Quite interesting, and amazon is doing well despite aggressive competition from the likes of temu.
But I guess something needs to give ... just a pity it appears to be most of our local retailers who seem to loose the battle. Running out of No 8 wire?
Another one ... retail in NZ is becoming a nightmare for owners...
a wild country ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/whakatane-michael-hill-jewellers-burglary-two-arrested-police-looking-for-two-others/2U6IEUTOQRF5FDXTNPF55OBFUE/
lets not forget that some of the NZX listed retail stocks are now really AUS stocks ...
AUS GDP.... it might just NZ's saviour... time to become a closer partner?
Quote from: Waltzing on May 05, 2024, 10:17 PMlets not forget that some of the NZX listed retail stocks are now really AUS stocks ...
AUS GDP.... it might just NZ's saviour... time to become a closer partner?
Re NZ stocks, we should work towards moving everything on the NZX over to the ASX. Just need imputation agreement between the two countries.
One, much bigger, possibility is to join their Commonwealth - but as two states, most likely North [Island] and South [Island], and adding Wellington-and-environs to the South would be needed for better population balancing. It would not be viable for our future if we joined as one state, we'd just be another Tasmania lol. The Aussies probably don't want us though eh! I don't know what to think of this, whether I'm for giving up our sovereignty to join them, or against it; a proud fence sitter on this one.
there is a section in the AUS const waiting for NZ... or used to be...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 06, 2024, 05:08 PMthere is a section in the AUS const waiting for NZ... or used to be...
You're right, there was! And it might still be there. I'll do some sleuthing...
--------------------------------------
6. Definitions
The Commonwealth shall mean the Commonwealth of Australia as established under this Act.
The States shall mean such of the colonies of New South Wales, New Zealand, Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia, including the northern territory of South Australia, as for the time being are parts of the Commonwealth, and such colonies or territories as may be admitted into or established by the Commonwealth as States; and each of such parts of the Commonwealth shall be called a State.
Original States shall mean such States as are parts of the Commonwealth at its establishment.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution/preamble
--------------------------------------
121. New States may be admitted or established
The Parliament may admit to the Commonwealth or establish new States, and may upon such admission or establishment make or impose such terms and conditions, including the extent of representation in either House of the Parliament, as it thinks fit.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution/chapter6
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It is OFF topic go farther on that one...
But from a retail public company perspective the NZX is dead and NZ is fast becoming a basket case...
It would benenfit NZ to at least adopt the AUS dollar and develop closer and closer trade ties where the markets one day become one..
this is also a direct threat to the NZX performance ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350269190/education-productivity-and-emissions-three-big-problems-nz-needs-fix-according
Get ready for that GFC recession treasury is talking about ? or is it just the normal winter blues ...
"rough ride this winter"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350273192/big-drop-job-ads-across-country-and-all-sectors
some bargain prices coming later on the NZX later in the year?
retail to take another leg down?
Retail NZ lady says retai could boom with the soon to be tax cuts
Sounds like "All Pigs Loaded,Ready to Fly" to me.
Quote from: winner (n) on May 10, 2024, 08:36 AMRetail NZ lady says retai could boom with the soon to be tax cuts
... and don't forget people need to buy plenty of additional winter gear courtesy to the fragility of the NZ power grid. Aren't we all supposed to heat with electricity, unless its a cold day?
Better stock up on thermals and winter jackets at KMD before the next power outage looms :);
Go Retail, go ...
• The Warehouse sales were $408.3 million in FY24 Q3, down 8.1% compared to prior year;• Warehouse Stationery sales were $60.8 million in FY24 Q3, down 7.5% compared to prior year; and
• Noel Leeming sales were $224.7 million in FY24 Q3, down 9.3% compared to prior year.
well oil is coming down as the UKE's drones hitting oil stuck forces other producing to flood the market ....
could inflation start to tick down for reasons not foreseen ...
china surplus over 70 billion for the last stats month not sure which one. ..
supply chains in china getting back to production not sure what the PMI is...
winter could see a bottom ... hope so ...
well some green shoots!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/developers-11-billion-bet-on-aucklands-economy/PV3JLAM65JGOZB2O6JBSL5T3OU/
Just how GRIM is it goin to be ... is it going to be a second coming coming of Roger D? or like Russia where they sold off everything!!!
And is this going to hit retail in NZ forcing the country into Brian E's period of stagnation...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/warning-to-willis-treasurys-grim-cocktail-of-tax-hikes-spending-cuts-and-asset-sales-to-fix-books/MCMK6RM6YJAPPENQ5Z5XXG54E4/
And then the good NEWS!!!
https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/127682/influential-rbnz-survey-shows-another-decisive-drop-expectation-future-levels
Desperately needed good news for the N.Z. economy
The reason some stocks might be getting hit ... do the insto's get a early look at this stuff...
could be some real bargain later this year... imagine TRA at 3.50
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/127746/stats-nz-figures-show-retail-card-spending-fell-third-consecutive-month-seasonally
some stocks in yield might move up long before retail ... the last to receover later next year?
plenty of time to rebalance ..
has the economy crashed ?
who did that... who did that!!!
boy TRA at 3.50? notice the NZ only stocks are dropping ... not the retail with AUS ,,, but that could be next!
Retail in AUS could come back early as the AUS government goes big on consumer support via cost of living payments ....
WOW go AUS ... spent up ...electricity cost of living payments .. ect ect
Shop till you drop Kangas ...
RBA wont be able to ease after all ...
Could the days of buying that wool lined bomber jacket be over?
Well this flock dont get sheared... imagine no WOOL jerseys?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/whanganui-chronicle/whanganui-midweek/mangamahu-farmer-kate-kellicks-sheep-farm-changes-the-equation/IVSWHHL445AGHPZKNVNKRPWPDA/
could save the economy though and the country comes out of stagnation later next decade or when?
I have never seen it so bad in Auckland.
Drunk driver tried to kill someone with his car and caused $100k of damage to the building.
Clothing shop owner calls it quits after several violent assaults trying to stop shop lifters. They heading back to China which they say is safer.
Baby products retailer calls it quits after 25 years and says our laws are rubbish and police don't come.
Customer brings in his dry cleaning and demands that he has it done that afternoon. When told it would be the next day punched the 75 year old lady in the face, putting her in Hospital.
Received a call from upset Jewelery tenant after his shop is ram raided by teenagers. All the cabinets are smashed and the building is damaged.
Insurance broker saying he has struggled to get cover for our last renewal. If we can't get cover our building and investment is worth bugger all.
It's angry, poor, intoxicated, drugged, disenfranchised people who are destroying people's livelihoods. We have guards and Maori wardens patrolling, but they are powerless.
These are all recent incidents our family have dealt with as owners of shops in South Auckland. Most of these were unreported in the papers but are happening every day.
That's my rant over. Time for a walk.
Oh my GOSH...
Quote from: Shareguy on May 18, 2024, 08:09 AMI have never seen it so bad in Auckland.
Drunk driver tried to kill someone with his car and caused $100k of damage to the building.
Clothing shop owner calls it quits after several violent assaults trying to stop shop lifters. They heading back to China which they say is safer.
Baby products retailer calls it quits after 25 years and says our laws are rubbish and police don't come.
Customer brings in his dry cleaning and demands that he has it done that afternoon. When told it would be the next day punched the 75 year old lady in the face, putting her in Hospital.
Received a call from upset Jewelery tenant after his shop is ram raided by teenagers. All the cabinets are smashed and the building is damaged.
Insurance broker saying he has struggled to get cover for our last renewal. If we can't get cover our building and investment is worth bugger all.
It's angry, poor, intoxicated, drugged, disenfranchised people who are destroying people's livelihoods. We have guards and Maori wardens patrolling, but they are powerless.
These are all recent incidents our family have dealt with as owners of shops in South Auckland. Most of these were unreported in the papers but are happening every day.
That's my rant over. Time for a walk.
Time for a walk eh
Take care mate .....even that doesn't sound safe these days
Very very depressing view from SG... GFC then.. recession.. expect some companies to report losses.
and retail in NZ may not get much better but in OZ ... there might be light at the end of the tunnel...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/record-migrations-why-thousands-are-ditching-new-zealand-for-australia/OG5P5P33VFAJ5NHQI3IPGCGU2Y/
More to come ... hitting retail NZ? just a little bit more damage to come..
HLG 5 dollars?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stats-nz-another-26000-will-be-unemployed-before-peak-reached/3IL7SD4PZRAVXEJ4OMYMFBZT6E/
While markets might feel they are bottoming in the real world it may not be the case ... impacting on NZ spending patterns...
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/127867/kiwisaver-early-withdrawals-home-ownership-fall-while-financial-hardship
The RBNZ seems to think it bringing in the plane for a soft landing ... gear down...
Is that how it feels out in the valleys...
1 percent GDP means no losses in retail profit and loss statements ... right?
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127935/headline-inflation-should-still-hit-target-band-year-rbnz-has-brought-balance-back
Oh dear ... times are a changing
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350293847/iconic-auckland-retail-store-smith-caugheys-set-close
Slightly off topic...
Times are a changing ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNh5870rBkc
US retail still holding up... what happened down under ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128007/american-retail-strong-beige-book-says-overall-expansion-modest-imf-upgrades-china
will we see retail start to pick up in 2025?
""The economy is expected to gradually strengthen from the second half of 2024, with private sector incomes supported by the Budget 2024 tax package, a continuing recovery in tourism earnings and an easing inflation outlook enabling a gradual reduction in interest rates," Treasury said"
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128012/treasury-forecasts-show-weak-economic-growth-will-keep-crown-accounts-deficit
This may have been posted on the forum already.
NZ Retails stats graph... https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/retail-trade-survey-march-2024-quarter/
Sales volumes up in March
Nine of the 15 industries had higher seasonally adjusted sales volumes in the March 2024 quarter compared with the December 2023 quarter.
By industry, the largest movements were:
hardware, building, and garden supplies – down 2.8 percent
food and beverage services – up 2.2 percent
motor vehicle and parts retailing – up 1.1 percent
recreational goods retailing – up 4.7 percent
accommodation – up 4.1 percent.
...Come June, there has been a significant surge in demand in all states except Victoria. Many are reporting sales rising above five per cent, which represents a significant movement.
...In recent years, my retail information group has been very accurate in relaying to the community (sometimes including the RBA) what is actually happening in the retail sector, particularly in the areas outside the 30 per cent of people who are mortgage or rent stressed. Accordingly, I am very confident about conveying this sudden switch.
There is little doubt that the rising spending has been triggered by the anticipation of tax cuts...
Bodes well for Australian retailers targeting that 30% of people with no mortgage or rent (aka young people living with their parents).
Having recently returned from Melbourne, I can vouch that it is in a sad state, much like NZ. While QLD is the opposite.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/rbas-rate-conundrum-as-economy-picks-up-in-all-states-except-victoria/news-story/ccf7e2f98d5c9e472160b0a572de1b33?amp
Some green shoot then... could NZ retail stocks be a bargain then...
New channels reporting economic trouble for NZ ... but was that the story a year and halve ago? only being reported
now when the graph says ...
this could be the high point and by the time they come due the SP on the NZX might already be on the move..
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/128328/just-kiwibank-ends-its-good-one-year-special-term-deposit-offer-bnz-jumps
And some really good news
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/uk-inflation-may-2024.html
This is how they see it locally...
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/06/18/consumer-confidence-drops-to-only-just-above-historic-lows/
AI - invest in retail robots, they are the future ... your new robot for home living .. and they have them ready to go.. bouncing off the walls of the labs...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29ECwExc-_M
NZ retail taking a bit of a bunch to the jaw... HLG looks like a fighter stagging about ... bobbing and weaving ..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFsBHR9nEJg
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128442/peter-martin-explains-why-he-believes-australian-economy-about-turn
AUS inflation still sticky ...
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-to-drop-nvidia-rebound-boosts-wall-street-20240626-p5jork.html
Consumer spending in New Zealand (including both residents and visitors) rose by 0.8% for the second consecutive quarter, led by a rise in online shopping.
As Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon put it:
"There was one detail of interest: consumer imports of low-value goods have skyrocketed in recent times, up 50% in the last year and up 20% in the March quarter alone. This probably reflects the impact of new entrants to the New Zealand market, and provides a counter to the weakness that we're seeing in retail stores."
Gordon doesn't stray into speculation about retail market trends. But it sounds suspiciously like the Temu effect. The Chinese online shopping giant has seen enormous worldwide growth in the past year. According to the website Techreport, the Temu app had been downloaded 235 million times (as of last October).
It did sales of US$18b ($29b) last year and is targeting US$60b. Temu effectively cuts out that middleman and allows people to buy cheap Chinese goods directly from suppliers.
That's got to be a worry for low-cost retailers like The Warehouse. The NZX-listed company has blamed tough economic conditions for its recent woes. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warehouse-earnings-forecast-plunges-tough-retail-environment-blamed/YTHRDQQYQBBDFMZPRJI323JLYA/) But when people look to cut costs, that often means buying cheaper goods. In the past, The Warehouse has done quite well in recessions. At the peak of the GFC, from September 2008 to October 2009, its shares rose 37%.
I'm sure the issues at The Warehouse are complex but this big structural change in the way people are shopping for cheap Chinese-made goods can't be helping things.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/inside-economics-the-temu-effect-buried-in-gdp-data-the-shocking-cost-of-building-houses-uks-nasty-inflation-surpriseand-why-we-might-be-in-for-the-same/JG3VHVLR5BD4FDEMAWCUXKNWF4/
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/28/us-treasury-yields-ahead-of-pce-inflation-data.html
inflation ...
sometime its nice to actually see what your buying when it stuff like towels other stuff ... its always a risk like buying from Trade tested...
in the end you wished you had talked to someone with some experiance with the product and could actually rattle the thing about a bit... NA its junk after all...
CNBC some commentator predicts a boom in the next 4 years for markets based on strong private sector balance sheets compared to governments..
This crisis being the opposite of the GFC and was the inflation spike predicted by an reserve banks ..
Did they in fact overreact draining to much money from the economies forcing a rapid contraction in consumer spending... not a soft landing then..
more like a panic in late 2022 that the reserve banks did not want to signal to the markets...
Retail to bounce back in 25-26 then...??
Screaming for a rate cut ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128521/some-economists-are-weighing-earlier-interest-rates-cuts-after-nzier%E2%80%99s-business
Australian retail trade rose 0.6 per cent in May, compared to a rise of 0.1 per cent the previous month. The consensus was for a 0.3 per cent month-on-month rise.
Year-on-year, retail trade was up 1.7 per cent versus 1.3 per cent for April.
Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics, said the figures were boosted this month by shoppers taking advantage of early end-of-financial year promotions and sales events.
"Retail businesses continue to rely on discounting and sales events to stimulate discretionary spending, following restrained spending in recent months," he said.
"Despite the seasonally adjusted rise, underlying spending remains stagnant with retail turnover flat in trend terms. Compared to May 2023, trend is only up 1.5 per cent."
ROD says he far from finished and is planning to expand!!!
well IKEA , Kmart and TEMU have already smashed BRISC share price although it may well have bottomed here...
But scrap metal merchants like TRA may well be T crash immune...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/briscoes-rod-duke-on-how-he-changed-nz-retailing-and-why-he-hired-the-briscoes-lady-money-talks/TQAEBXJXDFCWDOGQ7LZBZS236E/
this man just does not seem to know when to throw in the towel...
bleak ...
but maybe everyone is going to shift some part of there operations to AUS as it just makes ecomomic sense .. house prices rising over there already ....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/company-insolvencies-and-liquidations-up-474000-people-now-behind-on-payments/ZAXVSF45WVGITDZ7QNL4TLUXSU/
alarm bells! shes going down by the bow !!!
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/rbnz-could-hint-cuts-may-come-sooner
they havnt got a clue ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpYEJx7PkWE
no apparently they cant see the water sloshing around their shoes ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128524/reserve-banks-likely-cheerfully-ignore-growing-clamour-some-public-indication-when
Interesting that the economy has been here before back in 2005 - 2008 but this time the stock market has priced in a mini GFC and has the market over reacted bumping retail and commercial property only to find in 2 to 3 years it has repriced again and people missed the bottom... which is about now...
RetailWatch report June sales were 8% down on June lastbyear
Of note -
Department stores down 21%
Clothing/Footwear down 16%
Furniture/Appliances/Homeware down 12%
Online and Instore down about the same ...but Online Domestic down more than Online Offshore
Those are huge drops. Consistent with a very hard landing for the economy. Hope Orr at RBNZ is taking notes.
will be interesting to compare the data over the next 2 years from this point in NZ compared to AUS....
many thanks for the stats ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAuTR2vrI3g
Hard landing well that what is what you get when you send something up that fast and then stick it to the economy ....
Ok "in Tatters"!!! right !!!
"Singapore-based Abhijit Surya, of Capital Economics, also sees the economic downturn deepening sharply and forcing a November cut.
"To be sure, the bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However, with the economy in tatters and inflation on its way back to the RBNZ's 1-3% target, we still expect a pivot to policy easing by year-end," Surya said."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/official-cash-rate-ocr-decision-reserve-bank-to-make-its-call-at-2pm/WS5WCV2RFFHPBA36XFJWLU6RI4/
Tatters people ... TATTERS!!!!
"Stephen Toplis, head of research at BNZ, said the survey showed inflation had been beaten and virtually "screamed" for monetary policy to be relaxed sooner rather than later.
The same data caused economists at ASB Bank to shift their forecast for interest rate cuts to begin this November, instead of in February next year.
Nick Tuffley, the bank's chief economist, said unnecessarily damaging the economy and employment levels had overtaken inflation as the biggest risk facing the RBNZ."
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128664/reserve-bank-new-zealand-has-held-official-cash-rate-550-noted-policy-may-be-hurting
How to blow up an economy in 5 easy steps ...
Warning warning warning... AUGUSt !!!
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128669/economists-say-interest-rates-could-be-cut-soon-august-after-reserve-bank-performs-
crikey is why some property stocks are starting to ramp up in volumns....
that would mean the ship is actually sinking and the NET immgration figures are showing something that CPI isnt ...
that the rats are leaving the ship...
but wait in sydney they are saying the same thing ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhUZAXVGewg
Food Food glorious Food .... (musical oliver)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350339309/food-prices-have-largest-annual-decrease-six-years
Points made on the warehouse thread by posters on head office count should be a key new metric?
be interesting to compare HLG, KMD, BRISC, even TRA to see what these operations have in common with HQ operations...
Some like TRA have other operations such as finance and insurance. To see how these are structured inside these businesses would be a great PHD for a business studies grad at one of the UNI's.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 13, 2024, 02:00 PMPoints made on the warehouse thread by posters on head office count should be a key new metric?
be interesting to compare HLG, KMD, BRISC, even TRA to see what these operations have in common with HQ operations...
Some like TRA have other operations such as finance and insurance. To see how these are structured inside these businesses would be a great PHD for a business studies grad at one of the UNI's.
Yes, maybe.
Problem is - I don't think it is easy to determine the optimal size of a HQ without detailled knowledge of this particular company. Obviously - if HQ is too small, this is as bad as if it's too big (just look at the extremes) ... and I suspect as well that the optimal size of a HQ is as well dependent on the complexity of the industry, the overall size of the business, and of course dependent on how it is organised. There are clearly tasks which are better done in the HQ, there are tasks which are clearly better done in the branch, and there are tasks where it does not matter (but it still changes the ratio).
So, yes - it is clearly worthwhile to consider as well the "bloatedness" of a business, but I think it will be difficult to turn this into an easy to measure and generically to apply indicator ... and this is before we consider the impact of the observer effect (management will be happy to do a lot of dumb things just to make one indicator which people watch look better).
How many of those 1000 head office staff have been managing The Market.com, Torpedo 7 and how many have been laser focused on all things ESG. You might be able to halve head office numbers if you get rid of all the endless amounts of dross.
A lifetime ago, I once did a short stint as a junior auditor with the Waitemata District Council. One thing a very senior manager said to me was the amount of wastage in this organization is absolutely phenomenal. If I was in charge the first thing I would do is fire 75% of the people here.
Maybe that's what they should do at the WHS head office. So many people earning more than $200,000 its absolutely incredible. It's just a retailer for goodness' sake.
Not sure if this is good news or bad news for Aus/NZ fashion retailers. The article doesnt mention where they are shopping. If its from local stores its good news. If its from the likes of Shein or Temu then its bad news.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2024/07/16/online-shopping-fashion
will the RBNZ hand be forced with the JUNE data out in AUGUST ....
retail stocks still in the doldrums for another year or 2?
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128772/politicians-didn%E2%80%99t-use-fiscal-policy-fight-inflation-and-should-just-stop
AUS retail might be showing some signs of bottoming but not NZ...
TRA already bouncing off the that DIP that you all bought right?
4.30 already
goo! that scrap metal car merchant ...
maybe having china this close will help with lowering inflation in the pacific area but europe has a shipping problem with its Asian trading partners ...
https://www.rferl.org/a/middle-corridor-china-ukraine-war/33041577.html
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 19, 2024, 07:29 PMmaybe having china this close will help with lowering inflation in the pacific area but europe has a shipping problem with its Asian trading partners ...
https://www.rferl.org/a/middle-corridor-china-ukraine-war/33041577.html
Interesting.
But maybe its not just Europe (as buyer) having this problem, but China (as seller) as well. From that perspective one wonders why China is doing so little to control this naughty despot on their North West corner? Sure, he might be for them a useful idiot to test the resolve of the West, but he is as well blocking the silk route, which is essential for Chinas trade. Add to that the risk that Trump might shut down next year the gates to America and China will be isolated - leaving for them only SE Asia and Oceania to trade.
Hmm - interesting times, for sure.
Yes BP ... you have nailed it ... does it mean there are people in the CCP for whom the economy is not so important because they dont actually do the double entry book keeping...
maybe bitcoin could help ... ChinaCoin next?
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128793/we-await-start-cuts-official-cash-rate-david-hargreaves-questions-what-damage
does not look like retail will return any time soon in NZ... worse than the GFC? how could it have gone so wrong.....
thank goodness for AUS ....
Aussie retailers lifting off again. UNI reports -
Strong trading performance exiting FY24, with momentum continuing into July 2024
Group sales are expected to be $288.5 million, up +9.7% on FY23 (FY23: $263.1 million)
Even those dumpster diving into the WHS have done okay lately, up a whopping 10.5% just on Friday !
Up nearly 25% from its low for the year of 93 cents. (For the sake of clarity, I am not suggesting in any way that I think it's is a buy and I do not own any, nor am I intending on buying any)
What this does signal however is how forward looking the market is if a complete and utter train wreck like WHS can start to be repriced like that. I think the market is already looking ahead to what impact the change in the Reserve Bank's tone suggests for interest rates and company profits in FY26, FY27 and beyond. I am very comfortable with the tailwinds a much lower interest rate environment will provide for my big NZX positions in future years, namely TRA and HGH. Interest rate cuts for TRA are like an immediate but also a sustained shot of adrenaline into its bloodstream with lower floating rate funding costs directly
and immediately boosting profits with net interest margin expansion, (lower funding costs for previous higher fixed rate lending), but also boosting further retail demand, loan generation and insurance sales. Lower interest rates are rocket fuel for profit growth for them and they've been amazingly resilient in super difficult financial times over the last 4 years. Just watch them fly in the years ahead.
AND THE YEAR MONTH THE ECONOMY STOPPED...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/imports-plunge-new-zealand-records-669-million-goods-trade-surplus-for-june/UNQL3P6WSZGERD64WFZLLGKTQE/
DID THE ECONOMY JUST TANK? CRASH LAND?????
casual look but charts across a number of sectors are roughly in line...
retail, property stocks ....
and these are all looking like they are now moving off the bottom based on the recent RBNZ and global reserve bank pivots...
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 26, 2024, 11:06 AMcasual look but charts across a number of sectors are roughly in line...
retail, property stocks ....
and these are all looking like they are now moving off the bottom based on the recent RBNZ and global reserve bank pivots...
Well, yes - it certainly looks like the bottom might be in. Makes sense, too.
well did retail actually go up today.... global sell off and nothing moved
that might have been a TRA buy the di.i.p even....
HLG went up!!!!
most others were flat .... must be the bottom then.....
whole country has to improve its maths.....
no art classes how ever .... well wonder if drawing pastel charts in math class can take on a whole new meaning?
Has the market priced in the cuts already or will investors get a chase to accumulate at these P/E's...
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/129195/benign-us-ppi-got-market%E2%80%99s-attention-and-helped-drive-lower-us-rates-lower-usd
Its a cut !!! panic... they called it on CNBC this morning...
did you buy yesterday ? of course you did...
right they were going to cut when 2025?
I bought a decent number of ARG yesterday to add to my holding.
Some bigger buys even in the junk retails ...
instant reactions for some stocks in retail...
probably wont be inflationary as most people will use any tax cuts to more likely buy more groceries they may have been cutting back on...
or used to pay down debt...
"The most recent Retail NZ Retail Radar Survey found that 71% of members advised that they did not meet sales targets in the last quarter and 42% were not confident they would still be in business in 12 months' time."
How bad does it get ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/official-cash-rate-cut-reserve-bank-surprises-pundits-with-decision/VRCLEAHARJDORFGI7X77GMCOIE/
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 15, 2024, 11:27 AM"The most recent Retail NZ Retail Radar Survey found that 71% of members advised that they did not meet sales targets in the last quarter and 42% were not confident they would still be in business in 12 months' time."
How bad does it get ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/official-cash-rate-cut-reserve-bank-surprises-pundits-with-decision/VRCLEAHARJDORFGI7X77GMCOIE/
Well, just listen to the RNZ - its now the darkest hour before dawn. Time to allow others to pick up the opportunities?
Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend data for July. Sales still declining
Updated this chart .... $'s of day not inflation adjusted
Of interest is Apparel sales are almost back to pre-pandemic levels
Durables are down 6% from a year ago (and fallen below trend) but still above 2019 levels
No wonder retailers in these categories are struggling
I reckon it'll still take a while for consumers to start spending more on discretionary things ..maybe if things brighten up Christmas might encourage them to splurge out.
As Peter says it's darkest before dawn ...but is 3am or 5am
IMG_5887.png
I did my bit to try and help the economy along last month. Got a shiny new Nissan X Trail e power with gorgeous tan leather interior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3ubAuM-RgQ&t=42s Tina bought it for me. Said it comes with a steering wheel heater and seat heaters so I can feel her warm hug in spirit every day. Love it, her and Turners.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 15, 2024, 04:10 PMI did my bit to try and help the economy along last month. Got a shiny new Nissan X Trail e power with gorgeous tan leather interior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3ubAuM-RgQ&t=42s Tina bought it for me. Said it comes with a steering wheel heater and seat heaters so I can feel her warm hug in spirit every day. Love it, her and Turners.
Hope its a 2wd model, you townies don't need a 4x4 unless you'll going to do some true off roading or going up ski fields.
4WD mate because part of the plan in retirement is to get off the beaten track a bit, probably not skiing, my knees aren't up for that anymore. It can shuffle torque to any one wheel and is pretty handy off road. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACYP5hq3e-M&t=2s Either the fuel gauge isn't working properly, or the fuel economy is absolutly nuts. First week 580 km's and it's still showing as having half a tank of fuel left !
GDP forecasts from Orr yesterday point to a year long recession .....much worse than forecast in May
IMG_5888.png
Ona per capita basis we've already been in recession for 2 years, something he seems to have conveniently ignored.
worse no U TURN....
is there something in the water in wellington that creates a virtual reality mind set ....
probably only worth investing in retail stocks that have an sucessful overseas footprint...
or some tourism elements and overseas assets....
diversify ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129231/rbnz-governor-adrian-orr-rejects-u-turn-label-parliament-committee-suggests-lower
Wow, talk of up to 200 basis points in easing in the next 12 months. That's a LOT !!
comment over on economy .....
its not funny really is it...
expect retail SP to rise then?
previously stated did you buy last week?
of course you did but many cant as they are in TD's
he has to go .... soon...
Quote from: Basil on Aug 14, 2024, 03:04 PMI bought a decent number of ARG yesterday to add to my holding.
ARG on fire since Orr cut rates
You probably pretty satisfied
Quote from: Breezy on Aug 15, 2024, 04:30 PMHope its a 2wd model, you townies don't need a 4x4 unless you'll going to do some true off roading or going up ski fields.
This is the hybrid for you https://www.autocar.co.nz/chevrolet-corvette-e-ray-arrives-down-under/
0-100 in under 3 seconds. Too quick for a fat Beagle, (probably kill myself) but you'd be alright with your go hard or go home approach.
retail looking a bit sad still...
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/129367/new-zealand-retail-sales-down-12-june-quarter-extending-two-year-downward-trend
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 24, 2024, 07:50 AMretail looking a bit sad still...
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/129367/new-zealand-retail-sales-down-12-june-quarter-extending-two-year-downward-trend
Yes, but lets face it - who is in the second half of the 3rd quarter really still worrying about a slow second quarter?
No point trying to read the tealeaves by firmly focussing on the rear mirror of yesteryear. Much better to look forward and prepare for the inevitable upswing. Spring is in the air.
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 24, 2024, 07:50 AMretail looking a bit sad still...
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/129367/new-zealand-retail-sales-down-12-june-quarter-extending-two-year-downward-trend
Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 24, 2024, 09:43 AMYes, but lets face it - who is in the second half of the 3rd quarter really still worrying about a slow second quarter?
No point trying to read the tealeaves by firmly focussing on the rear mirror of yesteryear. Much better to look forward and prepare for the inevitable upswing. Spring is in the air.
Guru Mike Hosking knows everything and always right ...he agrees with you mate
So what is this intangible? It's the vibe. The vibe is important and in this case, it's driven by a desire to see better days, the same way we talked ourselves into a funk these past couple of years. And why wouldn't we? There was a lot to be in a funk about, and there still is.
But human nature generally wants us to be happy, to have hope.
So we look for indicators - the Reserve Bank and headlines like "light at the end of the tunnel", your mate that says, "what the hell, let's go out for dinner tonight" or "what the hell let's go away for the weekend any way". That's the vibe.
It doesn't take a lot, and no, it doesn't happen overnight. It happens gradually. But we are herd-like. You see one, then another, then you want to be part of it.
If you mark this day as the start, by early December remember this day and compare it to then. You'll be surprised at the transformation.
Because I am convinced the transformation is underway. https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/opinion/mikes-minute-the-vibe-of-the-economy-is-turning/
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 24, 2024, 11:38 AMGuru Mike Hosking knows everything and always right ...he agrees with you mate
So what is this intangible? It's the vibe. The vibe is important and in this case, it's driven by a desire to see better days, the same way we talked ourselves into a funk these past couple of years. And why wouldn't we? There was a lot to be in a funk about, and there still is.
But human nature generally wants us to be happy, to have hope.
So we look for indicators - the Reserve Bank and headlines like "light at the end of the tunnel", your mate that says, "what the hell, let's go out for dinner tonight" or "what the hell let's go away for the weekend any way". That's the vibe.
It doesn't take a lot, and no, it doesn't happen overnight. It happens gradually. But we are herd-like. You see one, then another, then you want to be part of it.
If you mark this day as the start, by early December remember this day and compare it to then. You'll be surprised at the transformation.
Because I am convinced the transformation is underway.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/opinion/mikes-minute-the-vibe-of-the-economy-is-turning/
Nice Winner. Yes the Hosk is always right😉Onwards and upwards,the recovery is happening.
VIBE?
you mean all those budget apps and excel worksheets are going to be left to gather dust when the sun shines and the HEAT returns... which with global warming is ...
well NEXT WEEK!!!
who is not addicted now to budgeting and seeing how much bigger your KIWI safer can get if you stop buying all that retail junk you dont really need...
but wait your not yet wearing co pilot in your sun glasses and it see everything your buying!!!
If you dont meet your budget goals it will shut down your vision with big projected reminders project with a 3D projector built into the smart glasses....
no responsible AI is your next best friend and budgeting will be the next big sport!!!
with that message stay safe and stay within budget...
Right the retail shopper is ready to go by xmas
usually takes a few years for bank accounts and credit cards to repair...
took 10 years for the retail shopper to recover fully from 2008
every ten years a big event seems to disrupt markets...
well if the retail shoooooper returns to empty the wallet at xmas then its hi ho for retailers...
but lets wait and see if who was it? some bloke on a mic ... Mike H?
all perfect by xmas ... yeah NAH...
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/129367/new-zealand-retail-sales-down-12-june-quarter-extending-two-year-downward-trend
In Australia punters are SAVING their recent tax cuts ....Westpac Survey
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 26, 2024, 07:45 AMRight the retail shopper is ready to go by xmas
usually takes a few years for bank accounts and credit cards to repair...
took 10 years for the retail shopper to recover fully from 2008
every ten years a big event seems to disrupt markets...
well if the retail shoooooper returns to empty the wallet at xmas then its hi ho for retailers...
but lets wait and see if who was it? some bloke on a mic ... Mike H?
all perfect by xmas ... yeah NAH...
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/129367/new-zealand-retail-sales-down-12-june-quarter-extending-two-year-downward-trend
"took 10 years for the retail shopper to recover fully from 2008"
What do you mean by this? Pretty sure the average retail shopper was in far better shape than 2008 long before 2018...?
did not feel like the market Sp's reached a peak till well after 2015 and seemed to reach a high level of purchasing power in 2017-2019 perhaps reflected in the public retail spending freely and also spending up on over seas travel..
SP's of retail and travel stocks seems to reach highs 10 years after 2008.
also called the great expansion ..
Will those lower ocr rates give the purchasing power back to the shopper..
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/129324/now-interest-rates-are-officially-way-down-david-hargreaves-has-crunch-some
NZ really is a basket case at present (pun intended lol)
From ADH results today.
Mocka – Australian sales are up +4.6% on FY24 whilst New Zealand sales are down -15.7%.
I note ADH's share price is down 14.1% today.
Can not be all NZ's fault.?
Quote from: KW on Aug 28, 2024, 12:19 PMNZ really is a basket case at present (pun intended lol)
From ADH results today.
Mocka – Australian sales are up +4.6% on FY24 whilst New Zealand sales are down -15.7%.
Patchy and inconsistent performances out of Australia but some pockets are doing well...including...ahem...Universal Store who have been going from strength to strength.
Even Glassons Australia looks to have done well based on google trends and similarweb data. Sadly glassons NZ and hallensteins look to be getting spanked. Credit card spending - even allowing for inflation and population growth - on apparel for July was diabolical. None the less the rate of decline for many listed retailers has slowed and might start picking back up next year and SP's have been on the rebound for a handful.
Briscoes holding up well, as always. Wouldn't be surprised to see it get into the NZX50 in the next 12-18 months, which with its liquidity really says something about the NZX.
Australia's retail sector has been in recession for the past 18 months - and recent trade data is bearing the hallmarks of an "economic horror show" for retailers between now and the Christmas holiday period.
The grim call by Deloitte Access Economics partner Dave Rumbens follows retail spending declining across six of the last seven quarters, as Aussies grapple with the soaring cost of living and rising interest rates, coupled with slowed wage growth.
Real GDP growth over the year to March came in at 1.1 per cent, the slowest annual growth outside the pandemic since the 1990s.
Consumer spending only grew 1.3 per cent over the past year.
Kmart going well. Fantastic operators.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02845058-6A1222623&v=fc9bdb61fe50ea61f8225e24ce041a0e155a9400
Great operators and a really well presented report. So easy to look through.
What can inflation do? well we have been reminded .....
amaxing that they did QUU EEE in 2008 and all was fine....
this time inflation showed up inside just over 16 months ....
back then doctor doom predicted inflation and the US dollar getting hit hard ...
well this time they havnt interviewed him but the perfect storm swept in...
what a xxxx show its been..
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 29, 2024, 12:47 PMWhat can inflation do? well we have been reminded .....
amaxing that they did QUU EEE in 2008 and all was fine....
this time inflation showed up inside just over 16 months ....
back then doctor doom predicted inflation and the US dollar getting hit hard ...
well this time they havnt interviewed him but the perfect storm swept in...
what a xxxx show its been..
Sounds pretty though - what times are you referring to - the big depression 1929?"
unemployment depending on region between 25% up to above 50%, investors jumping out of high lying windows, people dying of hunger ...
You can't possibly talk about this wee headwind we are currently observing?
we arnt in a world where data is collected by chalk boards and therefore its all relative...
No GST or import tax on almost anything imported from Temu and the rest as long as it's under $1000.00. Time we started collecting some of that missing 26.5% (10% import tax and 15% GST on the total).
(EU and UK charge on anything over $270 ish NZD)
Quote from: kiwi2007 on Sep 03, 2024, 10:45 AMNo GST or import tax on almost anything imported from Temu and the rest as long as it's under $1000.00. Time we started collecting some of that missing 26.5% (10% import tax and 15% GST on the total).
(EU and UK charge on anything over $270 ish NZD)
Unfortunately - you are quite ill informed.
All big online traders and importers (and Temu is certainly one of them) have to collect and pay GST in New Zealand. Temu is anyway sending the parcels in large quantities together (i.e. they come as container across the border), paying their dues and only handing the parcels in NZ over to the Post service.
Only exemption is if you send annually goods for less than $60k to NZ. And no - this is not Temu.
https://www.ird.govt.nz/-/media/project/ir/home/documents/forms-and-guides/ir1000---ir1099/ir1022/ir1022-2023.pdf?modified=20230813215540&modified=20230813215540
Have a look and do your research - better to get your facts right.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 03, 2024, 02:34 PMUnfortunately - you are quite ill informed.
All big online traders and importers (and Temu is certainly one of them) have to collect and pay GST in New Zealand. Temu is anyway sending the parcels in large quantities together (i.e. they come as container across the border), paying their dues and only handing the parcels in NZ over to the Post service.
Only exemption is if you send annually goods for less than $60k to NZ. And no - this is not Temu.
https://www.ird.govt.nz/-/media/project/ir/home/documents/forms-and-guides/ir1000---ir1099/ir1022/ir1022-2023.pdf?modified=20230813215540&modified=20230813215540
Have a look and do your research - better to get your facts right.
And to think its widely believed that germans arent really people persons...
Even Briscoe's finding trading hard....just as well Rod runs a tight ship
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437806
Highlights for the 26-week period – 29 January 2024 to 28 July 2024:
• Record sales of $372.08 million, +0.77%
• Underlying trading profit(1) of $40.58 million, 95% of last year's half year NPAT
• Online sales as mix of total Group sales 18.77%, (LY 18.33%)
• Total costs less than 1% increase on last year
• Total Inventory $13.89 million (-11.55%) below last year
• $35.00 million capital investment made during the period
• Interim dividend of 12.50 cps, maintained from previous year
Brisc SP lifted back some gains but really they will be under pressure going forward as other retailer platforms including some international ones will keep coming into NZ..
OIL down 3% overnight might bring some relief to inflation going forward if it stays down although wider war in the MEast will knock that about...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/crude-oil-prices-today.html
next rbnz meeting
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/the-official-cash-rate#uOPyufLEZ0iJGIBrbLn0OQ
50 this time or a little wee nothing much...
1 percent inflation ? no cant be ....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130012/economists-warn-there-rising-risk-deflation-if-reserve-bank-doesn%E2%80%99t-cut-interest
deflation?????
100 basis point before santa....
notice AUS has none....
which means AUS retail stocks wont BOOM again till 2026?
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130026/westpac-economists-have-changed-their-forecast-and-now-pick-reserve-bank-cut
Posted this other channel
While looking MHJ yesterday I asked myself why do are the likes of Michael Hill and Kathmandu serial under performers while Briscoes and Hallenstein Glassons keep performing well even in tough times
Conclusion was management ability ..... the ability/inability to manage through the retail cycles and the ability/inability to execute on strategic plans.
Oops where Warehouse you may ask .....I wasn't going to include them with Michael Hill and Kathmandu but they do deserve to be in that group.
One thing in common with Michael Hill, Kathmandu and Warehouse is the screeds of glossy slides over the years outlining why they are wonderful and the great strategies as to where they taking the business. Nothing ever seems to come of them ....ie management inability to execute strategic intention. Then again some might say they think far too much when just doing would be better.
Briscoes and Hallensteins on the other hand don't do such raves. No doubt they have a good strategies and they just get on and execute them while keeping the business in good shape even in tough times.
Are the under performers going to change? I doubt it and it will show in their results
Great post. Turners fits in there with retail, although a finance company as well. They do excellent presentations about their future strategic plans and then just get on with the job and do exactly what they say they will do. Just one record profit after another, year after year no matter what the headwinds and challenges are. I have the upmost respect for the caliber of the management team there as well.
Why would you bother owning the Warehouse, Michael Hill or Kathmandu when you have the likes of Turners, Hollenstein Glasson and / or Briscoes to invest your hard-earned capital into ?
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 06, 2024, 12:10 PMPosted this other channel
While looking MHJ yesterday I asked myself why do are the likes of Michael Hill and Kathmandu serial under performers while Briscoes and Hallenstein Glassons keep performing well even in tough times
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 06, 2024, 12:10 PMPosted this other channel
While looking MHJ yesterday I asked myself why do are the likes of Michael Hill and Kathmandu serial under performers while Briscoes and Hallenstein Glassons keep performing well even in tough times
Conclusion was management ability ..... the ability/inability to manage through the retail cycles and the ability/inability to execute on strategic plans.
Oops where Warehouse you may ask .....I wasn't going to include them with Michael Hill and Kathmandu but they do deserve to be in that group.
One thing in common with Michael Hill, Kathmandu and Warehouse is the screeds of glossy slides over the years outlining why they are wonderful and the great strategies as to where they taking the business. Nothing ever seems to come of them ....ie management inability to execute strategic intention. Then again some might say they think far too much when just doing would be better.
Briscoes and Hallensteins on the other hand don't do such raves. No doubt they have a good strategies and they just get on and execute them while keeping the business in good shape even in tough times.
Are the under performers going to change? I doubt it and it will show in their results
Oops where Warehouse you may ask .....I wasn't going to include them with Michael Hill and Kathmandu but they do deserve to be in that group.
One thing in common with Michael Hill, Kathmandu and Warehouse is the screeds of glossy slides over the years outlining why they are wonderful and the great strategies as to where they taking the business. Nothing ever seems to come of them ....ie management inability to execute strategic intention. Then again some might say they think far too much when just doing would be better.
Briscoes and Hallensteins on the other hand don't do such raves. No doubt they have a good strategies and they just get on and execute them while keeping the business in good shape even in tough times.
Are the under performers going to change? I doubt it and it will show in their results
I think you are bang on with your conclusion winner
"Conclusion was management ability ..... the ability/inability to manage through the retail cycles and the ability/inability to execute on strategic plans".
Also a lot hinges on having the right buyer. A person who understands the market, and can procure at the right price a product that the market likes. Finding a person who really understands the market is the challenge.
Pumpkin Patch failed after being a market darling I believe when they lost their design team manager. The designs that came in were not fashionable and the customers deserted in droves including our family at the time. Hallensteins I would say have great buyers and designers who understand the trends and what people are going to want each year. If I was the boss I would be looking after these people.
As far as Briscoes go, they are good in bringing in stuff that people want and as Rod Duke has said they get very good buying terms as they buy in bulk. But again it's all about the right product at the right time. There buying team have done a very good job.
I have recently taken a position in KMD. Based on the share price to what it could be worth if they get it right. At the end of the day it's just a punt and not a big position. New ceo just announced, good insider buying plus the possibility of M&A is how I see it.
On saying that I met a person yesterday who said they have done deals with Macpak and just recently sold product to Torpedo 7. I asked about KMD and she told me the buyers are too difficult to deal with.
Are the underperformers going to change you ask? Only time will tell but yes the best can fall and the weak can rise.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 06, 2024, 12:33 PMGreat post. Turners fits in there with retail, although a finance company as well. They do excellent presentations about their future strategic plans and then just get on with the job and do exactly what they say they will do. Just one record profit after another, year after year no matter what the headwinds and challenges are. I have the upmost respect for the caliber of the management team there as well.
Why would you bother owning the Warehouse, Michael Hill or Kathmandu when you have the likes of Turners, Hollenstein Glasson and / or Briscoes to invest your hard-earned capital into ?
As shareguy say those three are just punts (not really investing) ....... cheap as ....half price etc etc ....and they might just come right one day ...or be taken over
WHS, MHJ, KMD are trades really where as TRA is more likely a longer term bet...
scrap metal merchants with a bit of class...
RBNZ 25 this time? US 10 YR just spiked over 4...
there is still upside pressure to oil ...
but with china going full on electric even though they explode ...
any bets on 50?
We need a 50 bps cut. The economy has been in a per capita recession for over 2 years and the current interest rate setting is miles above neutral. There's a growing level of calls for 50 bps. Many in business are saying what we've been through recently has been worse than the GFC or Covid.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129937/david-hargreaves-previews-forthcoming-official-cash-rate-review-which-all-discussion
Companies in the retail sector that have performed well through the depths of the recession, (namely HLG and TRA), should really shine in the years ahead when the economy bounces back.
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 06, 2024, 12:10 PMPosted this other channel
While looking MHJ yesterday I asked myself why do are the likes of Michael Hill and Kathmandu serial under performers while Briscoes and Hallenstein Glassons keep performing well even in tough times
Conclusion was management ability ..... the ability/inability to manage through the retail cycles and the ability/inability to execute on strategic plans.
Oops where Warehouse you may ask .....I wasn't going to include them with Michael Hill and Kathmandu but they do deserve to be in that group.
One thing in common with Michael Hill, Kathmandu and Warehouse is the screeds of glossy slides over the years outlining why they are wonderful and the great strategies as to where they taking the business. Nothing ever seems to come of them ....ie management inability to execute strategic intention. Then again some might say they think far too much when just doing would be better.
Briscoes and Hallensteins on the other hand don't do such raves. No doubt they have a good strategies and they just get on and execute them while keeping the business in good shape even in tough times.
Are the under performers going to change? I doubt it and it will show in their results
Well Michael Hill is a bit of a no brainer - "its NZ, stupid". 8)"Group revenue was up 4.2% for the year on a 52-week basis, with Australia +10.3%, New Zealand -11.8%"Being forced to close stores, provide additional security, and deal with the constant ram raids and armed robberies all costs money as well, something a clothing store doesnt have to deal with.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 08, 2024, 11:46 AMCompanies in the retail sector that have performed well through the depths of the recession, (namely HLG and TRA), should really shine in the years ahead when the economy bounces back.
Not necessarily. If your target market is (a) young people who dont have mortgages or (b) recent immigrants who dont have cars, then any reduction in interest rates is not going to increase demand much. In the meantime, increases in unemployment will affect both more acutely.
Thats the reason why HLG has outperformed the likes of KMD and MHJ - different target market unaffected by recession (and taking advantage of recent wage rises due to inflation)
The target market for Turners is all New Zealanders. Lower rate mortgages will lead to more people thinking they can update their vehicle. Additionally, cuts in the OCR feed directly through to increased NIM as lower funding costs for existing higher fixed interest rate loans they've issued. Glassons Au consistently gaining market share because they're perceived as cool affordable fashion.
Notice the nice uptrend on both stocks, very attractive looking TA. Some person told me it's a good idea to own stocks in an uptrend ;)
Quote from: KW on Oct 08, 2024, 12:08 PM Well Michael Hill is a bit of a no brainer - "its NZ, stupid". 8)
"Group revenue was up 4.2% for the year on a 52-week basis, with Australia +10.3%, New Zealand -11.8%"
Being forced to close stores, provide additional security, and deal with the constant ram raids and armed invasions all costs money as well, something a clothing store doesnt have to deal with.
Agree - with MHI its a no brainer. No brain in management, no brain in sales staff, no brain training their sales staff and no brain setting up their sales system. My wife and I tried them last year as customers, and we are certainly not going to repeat this mistake.
Went there for a replacement of our wedding bands (they tend to wear down every couple of decades ... this is why we need new gold miners ;) ; They couldn't sell us the bands they advertised (wrong sizes, and they couldn't order the right sizes) - and when we found some others we liked (correct sizes) their system told them they can't sell them to us, given that according to their system they haven't been in the shop.
Sales lady worked fifteen minutes to convince their system to sell us the bands ... and managed finally with the help of some colleague to trick their system. She gave us the bands and ordered the bands she gave us, which allowed her to issue a bill / receipt for the order, so that she could take the money. During this time we had to stand at the check out. No seat, no coffee (the bands haven't been that cheap), no apology for their excruciating incompetence.
Pathetic. Couple of days later MHI send me an email and asked for feedback. I gave them a piece of my mind. They never bothered to come back and apologize either. Probably glad they are now making less revenue in NZ - less revenue, less work, less unhappy customers. Genius.
Just wondering why they are doing better in Ossie - either they have a different system and staff training over there, or the Ossies have just less brain then the Kiwis (well, this is what Maldoon said anyway, didn't he?).
Anyway - forget them ... both Warehouse as well as KMD might not be good, but they are leagues better than MHI.
Card Spend data out for September.
Still paints a gloomy picture
Here's the trend from pre-covid times for Durables and Apparel (Discretionary)
The post lock down boost all but gone. durables are now below trend and Apparel back to trend but about the same as pre-covid
Interesting
IMG_5940.png
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 14, 2024, 11:54 AMCard Spend data out for September.
Still paints a gloomy picture
Here's the trend from pre-covid times for Durables and Apparel (Discretionary)
The post lock down boost all but gone. durables are now below trend and Apparel back to trend but about the same as pre-covid
Interesting
IMG_5940.png
Not a surprise in a cost of lining crisis - and I guess the tickets to Barcelona are not cheap either.
Good thing is - the trend went so far always back to normal plus some overshooting (which makes sense, if you think about it - people can only that long stop replacing their durables, and then they have more to replace.
So, maybe when everybody is back from the big party in Spain, then people remember that the Champaign in Spain tasted better when cold and they might even replace the broken fridge they couldn't fix to pay for the tickets to Spain in the first place.
Time to invest into some durables retailers?
could be a short party at this rate...
but remember the math and science behind the sailing was mostly UK home grown by the N man and Others like Hook...
certainly the english appear to have a problem and maybe time for them to change the crew...
maybe HLG could get a tee shirt out if they keep the mug ...
where will they hold it next time...any thoughts?
Ferg mention stock turns on KMD thread
Here's some numbers
KMD 1.4 stock turns a year compared to
MHJ 1.3
WHS 4.2
BRG 4.1
HLG 6.1
Even allowing for some manufacturing component both KMD and MHJ pretty pathetic when it comes to managing stock
Ranking does tell a bit of a story eh
all good winner good time are just around the corner ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130266/headline-inflation-has-landed-rbnz%E2%80%99s-2-target-despite-largest-local-government-rate
any old firm will be able to make money soon...
ya-all be able to buy junk again soon and it will go up ....
Very good inflation update yesterday at 2.2% sets the stage for a 75 point cut next month.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 17, 2024, 07:34 AMVery good inflation update yesterday at 2.2% sets the stage for a 75 point cut next month.
....and then reality really starts to kick in
75? oh boy ......
Nay 50 surely ...
but what about china...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/17/business/china-food-delivery-drivers-meltdowns-intl-hnk/index.html
could retail be next in china after the property markets continues to plunge..
5 percent yesterday...
XI isnt looking like hes going to have a happy xmas....
oh that right they only have that in norway...
Money supply must still be up there... someone check the RBNZ M1, m2 . m..3
apparently the country is awash with money...
tell that to retail....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130363/reserve-bank-signals-high-levels-cash-seen-banking-system-onset-covid-may-be-gone
thought M3 was a car...
some person.. arhh sheila says everyone has been speeding though she cant put a number on it...
Interesting
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/business/the-retail-apocalypse-is-back?cid=ios_app
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 26, 2024, 08:34 AMInteresting
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/business/the-retail-apocalypse-is-back?cid=ios_app
Pretty bad eh shareguy
But was predicted way back in the 1990's by Howe and Strauss in their book The Fourth Turning....outlining history through generations.
We are now in the Fourth Turning being Crisis
Well worth looking at Neil Howe commentary's these days
retail prices coming next month ... and is the OCR going to be a cut of only 25...
is butter the real price point we should be tracking?
butter prices around the world might be worth tracking ...
Price in London, Paris, NY, Moscow, SH, Copen-H... Auckland, Sydney...
xero has published its stolen information report and apparently 1/3 of retail is still down sizing....
amazing that these on line companies now know more about you then the government...
RBNZ last to know?
25 percent only cut this time?
bets?
Inflation might be beaten but the cost of living for the average Kiwi household has increased by 3.8% in the past year
could there be four more years of inflation... could the US drive inflation up on its own?
or will it be balance out by a flood of oil and deflation in china...
and what are all those students in china doing riding bikes at night ...
NO BIKE riding IN CHINA please...
what will be the price of the rags for the retailers down under with low oil and cheap rag trade production and NO ESG reporting in the US...
whole departments closed down and the fed told to PRINT PRINT PRINT...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/13/economy/inflation-trump-economy-larry-summers/index.html
growth glorish growth where ART thou...
is it a science is it economics or is it ART...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130870/updated-treasury-forecasts-will-show-recession-lasting-longer-and-budget-deficits
what ever it is or how to create it appears to be lost on the KIWI's
or is it that wellington and councils have over the decades killed it...
the KIWI will decline according to the commentators...
Big day to day.. big day...bets? 50,75,100, 125?
75 the high end surely...
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/130918/stats-nz-figures-show-seasonally-adjusted-retail-sales-volume-decreased-01
back to Nothing to see here ... RBNZ
Aussie.....
The large, non-food retailers have had an incredible sales month in November that is far above last year and beyond anyone's expectations. While the Black Friday sales were spectacular they merely topped off a remarkable month.
Those large non-food retailers who report to their shareholders that sales were sluggish in November have a structural problem.
Certainly, among those with structural problems are the smaller stores on the "High Streets" of Australia.
While most held their ground in November they did not enjoy the boom. Longer term, to survive, they will need to adapt to a changed world.
If Reserve Bank officials (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economists-welcome-rba-reforms-but-policy-board-selection-is-key/news-story/b06eb2ede150c09498e55a01ff63de18)leave their Martin Place bunker and check on the real world they will have enough information to prevent rate cuts later this month.
By February, the official figures will be available and any thought of lower interest rates will be banished.
Those within the Reserve Bank who were advocating for higher interest rates (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/rba-governor-michele-bullock-schools-jim-chalmers-on-reading-inflation-data/news-story/6fe7fe35a996ab59fae13d83c758c79d) will now have their case strengthened, but I don't think it's likely that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates on the eve of an election.
Top economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia is misjudging the impact of the jobs market on inflation. The RBA estimates unemployment needs to remain at 4.5 per cent to keep inflation stable. The Federal Treasury suggests the safe rate is closer to 4.25 per cent.
Clearly the battlers with rent and mortgage stress are not part of the November retail charge but, even in this area, as I will describe below, there may be a surprising development.
There are two clear reasons why areas of the economy such as non-food retail are surging ahead and taking lower interest rates off the short term agenda.
A large number of Australians, particularly those in the public service have received substantial pay rises and state and federal governments are spending money like drunken sailors.
Most states, led by Victoria, are going deeper into debt and there is no sign of any major restraint in spending so consumers are feeling it's time to spend.
The job market is tight because of direct government hiring and hiring by enterprises relying on government income.
At some future point credit markets will tighten and force well overdue public service administration cuts but at this stage the sky is clear.
Both Chalmers and Gallagher need to tell the Australian public the truth and explain that interest rates are high as a result of big spending both from Canberra and the states.
NZ retail will still be in doldrums next year in spite of OCR cuts
My mate musicalchairs sums it up -
RBNZ end of October data - two and a half months after the first OCR cut shows people are paying more interest than before.
The effective interest rate on mortgages (weighted average) is still *creeping up* as people fix for longer, pay off their cheap rate mortgages, take on new ones, move to floating rates etc.
It means that people are paying an estimated $10bn a year on mortgage payments that we would have otherwise been spending into the real economy.
No wonder retailers are still seeming weak sales
I reckon won't change for some time as disposable incomes won't increase over next 6-12 months.
Cool chart says it all
IMG_6009.png
Not sure, whether "like" was the appropriate reaction, but it for sure is an interesting chart.
I wonder, whether the RBNZ is using their own data for analysis, or whether they just collect and distribute?
Anyway - does not look flash for 2025, doesn't it? .. but hopefully we might see a peak in early 2025 rather than late.
On the other hand ... just tried to book some events for the festive season - and much of the expensive stuff is already booked out. So, I don't know where people get the money from, but it appears there still are people around spending it.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 08, 2024, 04:50 PMNot sure, whether "like" was the appropriate reaction, but it for sure is an interesting chart.
I wonder, whether the RBNZ is using their own data for analysis, or whether they just collect and distribute?
Anyway - does not look flash for 2025, doesn't it? .. but hopefully we might see a peak in early 2025 rather than late.
On the other hand ... just tried to book some events for the festive season - and much of the expensive stuff is already booked out. So, I don't know where people get the money from, but it appears there still are people around spending it.
BP, in those with money don't know there's a cost of living crisis ...or even about recessions. Life just goes on
Retailwatch sales data for November pretty gloomy with total sales down 2.7% on Nov last year
Clothing Stores, Department Stores, Furniture and Appliances Stores all down more than 10%
Interesting breakdown -
In store sales down 3.8%
Online domestic down 2.4%
Online offshore up 8.9%
Online is 16% of total and offshore 55% of online
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2412/S00179/retailers-feel-christmas-cheer.htm
RBNZ to cut another 50 bps in mid February and fixed rates on mortgages are coming down, that'll help.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 11, 2024, 09:31 AMhttps://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2412/S00179/retailers-feel-christmas-cheer.htm
RBNZ to cut another 50 bps in mid February and fixed rates on mortgages are coming down, that'll help.
At the short end Basil,but 5 year swap rates are still 20 points higher ( Trump effect ) than the Sept lows ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/swap-rates
Thanks, Stoploss, good point but I read quite recently, most people are now fixing mortgages for 1 year.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 11, 2024, 11:27 AMThanks, Stoploss, good point but I read quite recently, most people are now fixing mortgages for 1 year.
yes correct 6 months and one year to capture the cuts . But with most of the market sitting in short term lending if longer term rates don't go down from here and they sit short ,it could get ugly if rates rise ....
10 year rate in the U.S. since Chump got it seems to have settled at about 20 bps higher.
A lot depends upon whether the inflation Genie is back in the bottle to stay.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 11, 2024, 08:49 AMIn store sales down 3.8%
Online domestic down 2.4%
Online offshore up 8.9%
Online is 16% of total and offshore 55% of online
The only place people can afford to shop these days is Temu and Shein.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 11, 2024, 11:27 AMThanks, Stoploss, good point but I read quite recently, most people are now fixing mortgages for 1 year.
According to the C71 data showing new mortgages taken out in October, some 27% (nearly $1.5 billion) of the $5.335 billion for owner-occupiers was in floating. That was a very sharp rise up from just 20.3% in September and the 27% figure is the second highest percentage for floating since the start of the data in April 2021 and it was only bettered by the March 2022 figure of nearly 28%.Since pretty much the start of this year borrowers have been going shorter and shorter with their terms in anticipation of Official Cash Rate (OCR) cuts from the RBNZ - which subsequently began in August.(https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2024-12/arbey1.jpg)This trend among the borrowers has seen the previously unfashionable six-month term rise to prominence, peaking at a 37.6% share of new owner-occupier mortgage money in August. The share fell to 33.4% in September and then to 20.6% in October.As the six-month term has declined in popularity, then so the more traditionally-favoured one-year term has stormed back to prominence. In October the one-year term took 41.9% of the owner-occupier mortgage money share, up from 28.2% in September.The $2.234 billion worth of owner-occupier mortgage money put on one-year terms in October was the highest monthly tally for this term since July 2021. Some 89.4% of the owner-occupier new mortgage money in October was either floating or for a one-year or shorter fixed term duration.https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/131165/latest-reserve-bank-figures-show-sharp-rise-amount-new-borrowing-floating
KW, a lot of people when purchasing we are having to settle the mortgage on a floating rate then get pricing and refix post settlement.
It differs from bank to bank with policy , some will give you the better rate if they cut and you have signed up for a higher rate . Problem is the policy says 'advertised rate " So right now say the advertised rate is 5.79 % and they are discounting to 5.69 % or 5.59 % for 1 year . So if they cut the rate 5 or 10 points you might not be able to get the benefit.
If the settlement is 2 to 3 weeks from an OCR announcement many people are not wanting to document a month out expecting cuts from the RBNZ , so this would have pushed up the floating portion .
This strategy has worked all year until the last cut , we aren't quite back at that 5.59 % 1 year ANZ special from Sept...
thought this was retail but the thread is now a broad mixture of bond yield to mortgages to anything related to OCR cuts.
But how much pain has the consumer been put through and OCR cuts dont trickle down the consumer who need time to heal.
mean while some retailers in the states are not blooming. Shows just how good HLG is and how under estimated its desire to grow.
Reeves documenties in south america has show a rubbish tip with expensive clothing thrown away. The amount of clothing dumped each year in britain might show that the RAG trade may meet a crunch point .
Consumers may rebel but they havnt yet...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/10/business/macys-real-estate-investors/index.html
Quote from: KW on Dec 11, 2024, 04:19 PMThe only place people can afford to shop these days is Temu and Shein.
I don't think the hordes of Glassons customers would agree with that.
I still believe most people want to try clothes on to see if they fit properly and the fabric feel and style makes them feel good.
Goldman says 5 % increase in US discretionary spend next year ....
well it appears some parts of the world are still pumping... what went wrong in NZ...
and what? .04 drop in sept... was that .50 enough? some dont think so...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/131190/david-hargreaves-examines-upcoming-gdp-figures-likely-show-our-economy-having
is the economy really in need of a LOT more stimulus...
To stimulate or not to stimulate MORE, that is the question.
well they are making a lot of changes but how many departments make a surplus?
less not more..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/government-books-in-worse-shape-than-expected-forecast-debt-issuance-up-no-surplus-in-sight/FGHTVEZIXNF6JMDHWATZ2M3FGY/
is there anything a government department can do that PE cant?
if you have ever worked in a government department you will know the answer.
Retail = RISK.
This country's economy performance and increasing government debt which the current FM wants sweep under the media black out blanket is a warning that the ground under the beehive is shifting as the seismic monitors quiver...with the increasing weight of debt...
If retail stocks in NZ are moving UP UP UP and AWAY beware that this balloon is cyclical and AUSSI dollar denominated stocks and its economic performance is the major force that could move the SP's.
might as well become a state of AUSSI... its TINA...
All looking good waltz
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index rose 7 points in December to 97.5. While still a little below long run averages, that is the most upbeat households have been since 2021.
Maybe winner(>=1) the household books are in better shape than the governments and the blow out transfer of money from government to household back in 2020...
and households have done a good job of balancing the cash book?
its a WHITE xmas ....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/131355/according-latest-anzroymorgan-consumer-confidence-survey-more-people-thing-now-good
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 21, 2024, 08:21 AMits a WHITE xmas ....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/131355/according-latest-anzroymorgan-consumer-confidence-survey-more-people-thing-now-good
Interesting ... the article says "people thing". In my time people still used to "think", but maybe this consonant shift explains some of the issues humanity seems to have these days.
well 1963 in the baltics was a good year ... simula was created ...
cold place but some thinking was going on for sure...
i do miss nordic summers... biking is wonderful looking forward to it again soon..
with global warming summer should go well into august september..
we are entering the virtual age. it will take a while since getting AI to generate images is very random and a PITA....
real world retail is a lot easier and more fun.. actual real world shopping may combine the two ... you select some stuff in virtual and you also do the real world thing when you want to GET out get some VD... Vitamin D..
"Xi sharpened his focus on bad habits in 2021, when a regulatory crackdown on internet-platform companies targeted not only Chinese entrepreneurs like Alibaba's Jack Ma but also the so-called lifestyle excesses associated with video games, online music, celebrity fan culture, and private tutoring. Such state-directed social engineering suggests that the Chinese authorities have little tolerance for the sense of possibility and optimism embedded in the DNA of Western consumer societies."
and this is why retail in the west is a lower RISK than in those other Utopian states..
the little red book might soon out sell designer jeans... know which runway fashion event you would sooner attend.
and that is why Retail in the west will always win out be it Junkie old cars (still better than you get in russia) or designer jeans and bling...
its yet to see if china EV's can last or are cheap junk.. cheap is often as cheap is..
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 22, 2024, 07:54 PM...
i do miss nordic summers... biking is wonderful looking forward to it again soon..
with global warming summer should go well into august september..
So easy to get fooled by ones memories ... and past memories often develop a silver halo.
Nevertheless - yes, I do remember one amazing Swedish summer with long and hot days and amazing flavors of soft ice cream in Stockholm (best soft ice I ever had ...) :). I think it was 1979;
However - I remember as well at least too miserable Swedish summers in the 1980íes with lots of rain, temperatures hardly moving into double digits, freezing winds and the only way to warm up was switching on the hotel sauna.
2 out of three Nordic summers bad ... based on these odds I prefer the summers here (even if they are not perfect either).
This is off topic of course... firstly biking in NZ in summer requires being coated in sun block... retail chemist and supermarket sales go through the roof...
even the KANGS rowers flee for home and cant believe the burn rate...
secondly the number of lakes for testing on up in the north are numerous and temps are perfect for fast conditions of hulls...
and my memories are only late 2019 ... october...
i was also in europe often from the 1982... and in the nordics the summers are now much warmer and still no radiation burn.. except from perhaps russian mishaps..
im sorry but testing in this country is almost impossible not to mention the verbals one gets from the local so called sports experts and the local club members...
its just not worth having to listen to....
This surely must be good for retail:
Clients hit their EFTPOS facilities so hard that ANZ can't cope with all the withdrawals:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/anz-online-banking-outage-hits-a-day-out-from-christmas/MXKJKJEQUJHF7JHLDHAXR6YOSU/
Just wondering, why its only ANZ customers going on a spending spree? ANZ Internet banking is in practical terms down (well, unusable), while ASB works for me perfectly fine (well, as lousy as always).
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 24, 2024, 02:45 PMThis surely must be good for retail:
Clients hit their EFTPOS facilities so hard that ANZ can't cope with all the withdrawals:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/anz-online-banking-outage-hits-a-day-out-from-christmas/MXKJKJEQUJHF7JHLDHAXR6YOSU/
Just wondering, why its only ANZ customers going on a spending spree? ANZ Internet banking is in practical terms down (well, unusable), while ASB works for me perfectly fine (well, as lousy as always).
Punters finally realised they've been sucked in the doom and gloom media and there hasn't been a long recession after all and the touted cost of living crisis didn't really affect that many
I reluctantly had to visit Rebel Sport on Boxing Day and it was madness. My wife picked also had to grab a few final stocking fillers on the 23rd and apparently there was nothing left on the shelves at our local Warehouse.
Got a new pair of New Balance shoes from Rebel today for 35% off. Fortunately, I know the size and model I wanted so the $6 delivery charge seems like an incredible bargain for the time saved and avoiding the crowd madness. I took my dog for a walk in the park with the time saved, instead, far more pleasant. My wife also reported the local warehouse had next to no stock and the checkout queue at K Mart was about 150 meters long yesterday.
$ falling (quite fast) and oil price on way up never a good sign for retail ....in both NZ and Oz
Any idea where the NZDUSD can bottom out?
This USD strength is amazing. Usually we only hit 55c during major financial crisis (GFC and Covid)
Quote from: entrep on Jan 03, 2025, 11:34 AMAny idea where the NZDUSD can bottom out?
This USD strength is amazing. Usually we only hit 55c during major financial crisis (GFC and Covid)
Clearly - a hype peak; And clearly - it will drop as soon as even the dumber part of the world notices that you can't live off charging tariffs you need to pay yourself. Sounds like a perpetuum mobile to me. Google that how it went.
On the other hand - people thought through centuries that man can turn dirt into gold. People believed for millennia in whatever god(s) their forebears made up, and some even believed for years that Trump is a decent guy.
So - hard to predict when this hype bubble stops. Don't think, though it will run for centuries. Remember - the money Mr Musk and his proforma puppet president will splash around to pay for tax cuts for their rich buddies adds to an already unsustainable mountain of federal debt in the US. Countries sitting on huge debt piles are not known for having strong currencies.
On the other hand - I understand our gummit is rising debts as well, so its anybody's best guess who goes broke first.
Well - here we go.
Boxing day sales boomed
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/538162/boxing-day-sales-boomed-after-flat-first-half-of-december-retailers
there is a reason winners always look on the bright side of life!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M
just remember people you living in a country that can do some simple sums down in wellie wet town... and they havnt got any green pastels colors in their reports till... hum... 2029...
mark that on your calender... but punters still got some lolly. Gov-ment not much ... nuff then..
oil just jumped 3.5%...
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1
stil well short of a 100 though..
some downward pressure on markets this coming week....
Australia's King of Retail just put out a trading update for PMV - stock dropped 16% as a result. UNI off 5% in sympathy. ADH off 6%
Things might not be as rosy going forward over there. Especially with rate cuts looking increasingly off the table.
Considering the path of inflation overseas, and bond yields going up as a result, the chances of future rate cuts in NZ also look to be in jeopardy. The only reason NZ has gotten inflation to a level where the RBNZ felt it could drop rates was because NZ was importing deflation from overseas, which offset still too high (4.9%) domestic inflation. If NZ starts importing inflation it will push the CPI up again, and the RBNZ may be forced to hike again. This would seriously upset the market which had been banking on lower rates. The falling NZ$ is also exacerbating the effect of imported inflation.
After the recent Briscoes downgrade, caution in the high flyers like HLG may be warranted at this point.
From that Premier announcement - Premier expects that its Apparel Brands business, consisting of Just Jeans, Jay Jays, Portmans, Dotti and Jacqui E will deliver global sales for 1H25 in the range of $405 million to $412 million and underlying EBIT (pre-AASB 16) in the range of $31 million to $35 million2, $16 million to $20 million less than for 1H24.
Jeez that's a 35%/45% drop in profit
Tough times indeed
PMV on a historical PE of 20, (after this correction today, that's on last year's higher earnings). UNI is 18.7. Big difference to HLG's very modest multiple.
Aussie retailers got ahead of themselves ? Glassons Au eating their lunch ?
NO JOY FOR RETAILERS
The end of year holiday retail rush didn't make up for the slow start to the month for retailers. Worldline/Paymark data (https://worldline.com/en-nz/home/top-navigation/media-relations) shows a -0.7% dip in December card use at retail outlets, with the retreat led by major centres Auckland and Wellington, both down -2.0%. Not helping was that average transaction values fell as well compared to the same month a year earlier.
Rate cuts to save retail in NZ ..... maybe not as gyy from BNZ says
"There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet, but the anticipated 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ [Reserve Bank of NZ] in February should not be considered a done deal. Indeed, we think there is much more chance of a 25 than a 75," BNZ senior economist Doug Steel said.
ok then how about egg derivatives...
looks like eggs are the investment of the future ..
Retailwatch sales data for December. From card spend and comes out before the Stats report.
December sales down a bit on pcp
What is interesting is large fall in online domestic sales .....offshore up but $'s don't offset domestic decline. Probably something to do with timing of Black Friday etc sales
IMG_6047.png l
with the economy in the you know where... people have stopped bothering to keep time and they have all gone to the beach...
and no big cut coming in feb ..
then..https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/weak-nzd-may-curb-rbnzs-appetite-for-feb-50bp-rate-cut
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 17, 2025, 11:11 AMRetailwatch sales data for December. From card spend and comes out before the Stats report.
December sales down a bit on pcp
What is interesting is large fall in online domestic sales .....offshore up but $'s don't offset domestic decline. Probably something to do with timing of Black Friday etc sales
IMG_6047.png l
Maybe due to The Market (Warehouse) being closed down in June? And otherwise crappy sales numbers from The Warehouse.
Brisc taken a bit of a major pull back... NZ only retail looking a bit poor...
Scrap metal merchants looking stable ... TRA .. still cars, vans, pickups arnt really retail...
Transport ..
https://fundamentalgoob.substack.com/p/new-zealand-economic-recovery-trade
50 done ... good for retail and everything ...
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 19, 2025, 02:02 PM50 done ... good for retail and everything ...
RBNZ very dovish. Expecting another 25 bps cut in April and May ! Will definitely help the economy and retail recover.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976524090/ebos-boss-resigns-nz-windfarms-in-take-over.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+19+Feb+2025
Market no reaction in fact some downward pressure and maybe global export market outlook is uncertain...
trade ... no one knows whats coming next...
Quote from: Basil on Feb 19, 2025, 07:47 PMRBNZ very dovish. Expecting another 25 bps cut in April and May ! Will definitely help the economy and retail recover.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976524090/ebos-boss-resigns-nz-windfarms-in-take-over.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+19+Feb+2025
Well, yes - but this might well be the seed for the next round of inflation ... NZD dropping, imported inflation rising + Dump making everything more expensive. So, yes, you might be right, but lets be careful of what we wish for ...
Yes market did not bounce like the last ocr cut...
the cuts are having no effect on mr market...
it thinks there is no summer coming in the next 12 months...
the fact the Nats are talking company tax cuts and department closures shows maybe more levers are going to be pulled to try to bring the economy back to the surface..
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 22, 2025, 08:09 AMYes market did not bounce like the last ocr cut...
the cuts are having no effect on mr market...
it thinks there is no summer coming in the next 12 months...
the fact the Nats are talking company tax cuts and department closures shows maybe more levers are going to be pulled to try to bring the economy back to the surface..
ah the old "cutting spending to spur growth" strategy....its a bold move cotton lets see if it pays off for him.
But back to reality: Mortgage rate cuts take a long time to flow back into economy due to the nature of fixed mortgage rates. For instance despite the OCR sitting at its peak of 5.5% from May 2023 to July 2024, followed by 125 basis points of cuts having occurred between July - November last year, the amount of interest being paid by kiwis on mortgages didn't actually peak until October/November (see link).
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tywukjsdu7wtdkcag724woy7/bafkreihrhtxfne6ydpg4xtig76q4iqbvd577xvoe6t6dlcumqw42n3sgj4@jpeg
But hopefully come the end of this year, with more people on shorter term mortgages, we should see some real momentum from lower mortgage rates translating in higher consumer discretionary spending
great post ... yes the time lag of monetary policy... does it take longer for cuts to take effect due to the slower cutting cycle then the raising..
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2025/02/ocr-375-ocr-reduced-further-as-inflation-abates
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 25, 2025, 09:11 AMgreat post ... yes the time lag of monetary policy... does it take longer for cuts to take effect due to the slower cutting cycle then the raising..
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2025/02/ocr-375-ocr-reduced-further-as-inflation-abates
that's a good question. I'll have a hunt for the data, but I know there was a release recently that showed a large amount of mortgage holders have moved to short term mortgages (6 month or 1 year) as the OCR peaked, so compared to the then popular 2 year fixed mortgage on the way up, the cuts should flow through faster one would hope on way down.
Although of course the destination is different - we ain't going back to sub 3% mortgages.
yes its all been a bit of turbulent time the last 5 years...
understatement....how on earth is the average investor supposed to keep the faith... and people wonder why money goes into land..
Australian Westfield owner (SCG.ASX) blows it out of the water. Bricks and mortar retail certainly isnt dead in Australia
"In 2024 we welcomed 526 million customer visits, an increase of 14 million compared to 2023.
Our Westfield membership program now has more than 4.5 million members, increasing by 0.7 million during 2024.
"Our business partners achieved a record level of sales during 2024 of $29 billion, $544 million more than in 2023.
"We continue to see strong demand from business partners with occupancy increasing to 99.6% at 31 December 2024, compared to 99.2% at the end of 2023
Good for HLG,yet not working for MHJ..
yes but what about visits in NZ...
now dont get me wrong... NZ has some great performance stats you might not know about... try opening a bank account in sweden.. or try getting bank customer support on the phone in southern ireland...
performance stats for things you might take for granted are high in NZ...
you just cant jump on a train like in landskrona connect at CH and wake up in london...
train commutes are just not a thing in NZ....
even in AM in holland in the early 1980's the train from AM Amsterdam to Zandvoort sunday afternoon beach lunch and then den hague for evening drinks ..
Shock... and how is the market going to react to this in the MORN people...
what stats are they hiding .... or is it a health issue....
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/132245/adrian-orrs-resignation-comes-reserve-bank-negotiates-funding-agreement-government
is there something rooten in the state of NZ...
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 05, 2025, 08:42 PMShock... and how is the market going to react to this in the MORN people...
what stats are they hiding .... or is it a health issue....
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/132245/adrian-orrs-resignation-comes-reserve-bank-negotiates-funding-agreement-government
is there something rooten in the state of NZ...
Can't comment on his health ...
but I guess he didn't had always a good hand in smoothening the inflation, didn't he? And yes, while his banking capital requirements might make them more stable, they are costing consumers as well a lot of money.
Can't really imagine that his resignation will impact on share prices (well, not short term, anyway), but for short and deep panic movements we have currently anyway the bully in the evil house.
they bungled the rate hicks... the bungled covid ...
now retail has paid a huge price in the GFC style recession...
even trucking while the stats dont show what a driver on a big rig told me last week on a massive hold up on state highway bottom of kamai...
he said the transport runs from Whakatāne to Taupo for his firm was down from one a day to one a week..
He said he had never seen anything like it...
the S&P 500 has got the gitters...jitters..sh*tters.. some will say its just the TF thing... but is it..
could the US economy be stalling as consumers start to panic.. not a big panic yet but just a hang on maybe i might not shop till we drop this week...
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX
its stalling...
get your pastels out and check back to oct... notice the jumps and falls...its flat..
but if it looks this bad now wait till the TF's start flying and hit the proverbial Wall...
whats is that sound..... its the sound of hitting turbulence....
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjSpO2B6G4s
will the retail shopper suddenly look up and realise its all sticker shock and actually change habits?
crashs come from that sort of stuff...
Here we go... they are p*ssed in .... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0422zzpw8o
"Canadian provinces pulling US alcohol off store shelves in response to Trump trade policy is "worse than tariffs", the boss of Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman has said."
Has DUMP over reached? again? all in the name of holidaying on the big russian yatchs made in Italy?
The Scots will be flying over in there kilts and kicking up a jig ... and selling some fine malt to the cannackies...
oh laddies get a sip of this.. it will warm the cockles ..
well China says it wants free trade ! Its economic sector break down may now be what we all study and the state of the Stable Country's consumer.....
Well hey they are fishing in the Tasman.... shot any fish lately? but it was friendly live fire...
well there imports just dropped 11 % ... what is retail going to do in China and is the data accurate....
Is NZ still in recession.... our reserve bank is headless and it has 600 people with clip boards running around gathering information...
the head disappeared after a great trip to the US and spending up a storm...
come on NZ is the data in NZ any more reliable and timely as china? Our new stable country live fire friend?
Gosh imagine it yesterdays bad mate todays friend!!!
ATM sales going to be a very interesting temp reading for the China consumer? could be that ATM has the numbers everyone wants to read now....
well wetail need those OCR cuts now...
kiwi bank says 100 before xmas.. wow thats 2.5 OCR come santa time...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/official-cash-rate/official-cash-rate-decision-reserve-bank-makes-call-today-amid-tariff-turmoil/XGYY6VHKLBG5RIOWZG4WWH4WBE/
WOW....
markets reverse... good for weetail..
that was quick..
well Investors, Campers and others..
Happy days are here again...
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI
wow 145 tax on china goods....
well that cuts off china trade to the USA... apparently...
now that is going to create some supply chain supply dumping....
or attempted dumping...
China need NZ!! even little NZ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/trumps-triple-digit-tariff-essentially-cuts-off-most-trade-with-china-says-economist.html
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 11, 2025, 08:41 AMwow 145 tax on china goods....
well that cuts off china trade to the USA... apparently...
now that is going to create some supply chain supply dumping....
or attempted dumping...
China need NZ!! even little NZ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/trumps-triple-digit-tariff-essentially-cuts-off-most-trade-with-china-says-economist.html
Interesting, given that China produces most of the cellphones and many computers sold in the US. I think 90% of Apple products (not the healthy stuff, but the Steve jobs Apple) are made in China.
Maybe the US will go back to calculating and planning by hand. Remeber these times when hundreds of women manually calculated logerithm tables? ... hey, this will create jobs in the US, won't it?
I think what they really need is a president with at least half a brain. Why don't they just ask Elon to fire Dumb (saves money) and ask Xi to moonlight in the oval office? Same bad character and no ethical constraints, but somewhat more reliable and trustworthy.
Heard yesterday, that last time Trump was in, Apple got an exemption from the tariffs??
So what about Nike et all??
this young person gets no satisfaction....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeugL6jV3W4
Plenty of chat on retail lately. Here is For Bars uptake on retail in general.
It has been a volatile few years for NZ listed retailers, with Trump's reciprocal tariffs providing the latest shock for the sector. While retailers that import into the US may face new costs, NZ retailers sourcing from China could benefit from excess manufacturing capacity and lower input costs. Although the tariff situation remains fluid — Trump has noticeably softened his rhetoric on reciprocal tariffs in recent weeks — this note seeks to provide context for how NZ listed retailers would respond to further changes in the global trade system. Our analysis of listed retailer supply chains, end markets, and sourcing locations found that (1) a -1% reduction in China sourcing costs could increase sector gross profit dollars between +0.2% to +1.1% (all else equal), and (2) KMD Brands is in a better position to mitigate tariff-related headwinds than initially anticipated. The latter reflects better-than-anticipated flexibility in its supply chain, including the ability to redirect Chinese-sourced product to non-US markets, while fulfilling US demand from other lower-tariff sourcing countries.
What could cheaper product sourcing costs mean for the NZ listed retail sector?
Disclosure of product sourcing is inconsistent across the retail sector, both in terms of granularity and the metrics disclosed. However, our analysis confirmed that China is a major sourcing partner for NZ listed retailers (noting that no data was publicly available for BGP). Specifically, China (1) accounts for c.35% of KMD's spend on branded product, (2) is the sourcing origin for c.63% of WHS's sales in Red and Blue Sheds, and (3) is home to c.70% of HLG's sourcing factories. A full breakdown of our estimates of sourcing country is provided in Appendix 1. Should trade tensions between China and the US remain elevated, we expect excess manufacturing capacity to place downward pressure on sourcing costs. We estimate that a -1% reduction in Chinese sourcing cost could result in a 15 - 40 bps gross margin benefit, or a +0.2% to +1.1% increase in gross profit dollars, all else equal.
More confidence in KMD's ability to offset the tariff impost
We expect KMD will be able to offset two-thirds of the total tariff impact (up from our previous estimate of half), and increase our target price +NZ 5 cps to NZ$0.53 accordingly. KMD has c.19% revenue exposure to the US market through Rip Curl (c.12%) and Oboz (c.7%). China is a significant sourcing country for Rip Curl (accounting for c.45% of supplier factories), while Oboz has a lower dependency (c.23%). Notably, China-sourced goods are primarily apparel, which can more easily be relocated to other textile markets. In contrast, technical products such as Rip Curl's wetsuits (Thailand), and Oboz footwear (Vietnam) are harder to shift. Despite ongoing volatility, we have increased confidence in KMD's ability to mitigate potential tariff-related headwinds given (1) Trump's softened stance towards key trading partners (excluding China) and relatively lower tariffs on other key textile nations (Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam), and (2) greater supply chain flexibility with the ability to redirect China-sourced product to other international markets, while meeting US demand through alternative low-tariff sourcing locations.
China is a major sourcing country for all retailers under coverage
Supplier disclosure is inconsistent across the sector, with BGP providing no publicly available data. Figure 2 summarises our estimates of supplier and manufacturer locations by continent. The reporting metric used also varied by company. KMD Brands reported its percentage spend on branded product in 2024 at the group level, however, disclosure at the individual brand level was less granular, with our estimates based on number of factories in each region (Open Supply Hub) and no adjustment for the expected volume that is supplied from those factories. HLG also provides only the number of factories by location. WHS reported the percentage of product sold in Red and Blue sheds by sourcing location in its Ethical Sourcing Report from 2023. A more detailed breakdown of supplier locations is available in Appendix 1.
Unsurprisingly, Asia is the primary supplier and manufacturing continent for all listed retailers under our coverage. China in particular features heavily, accounting for (1) c.35% of KMD's spend on branded product, (2) c.63% of sourcing for WHS's sales in Red and Blue Sheds, and (3) c.70% of HLG's sourcing factories.
Lower sourcing costs from China would benefit NZ listed retailers
If trade from China to the USA slows materially, we expect surplus manufacturing capacity in China to place downward pressure on sourcing costs for global retailers. Based on our estimates of Chinese-based sourcing above, we estimate that a 1% decrease in China sourcing costs could increase gross margins across the sector by 15-40bps and increase gross profit dollars by 0.2%-1.1% (assuming all else equal). WHS would be the largest beneficiary, due to its high cost of goods as a percentage of sales and large sourcing exposure from China. Any potential reduction in sourcing costs will be lagged due to the time required to turn inventory. Retailers with slower inventory cycles — KMD, WHS and BGP — are likely to realise benefits more gradually than faster inventory turn retailers (HLG).
KMD is the only retailer under coverage with material US exposure
KMD is the sole listed retailer under our coverage that has material revenue exposure to the US. In FY24, 23% of Rip Curl's sales were into the US (c.12% of total group sales), while c.83% of Oboz's sales (c.7% of group sales) were into the US. Briscoes Group (BGP) and the Warehouse Group (WHS) are 100% domestic retailers, while HLG has both NZ and Australian exposure.
Re-basing our KMD Brands tariff estimates
In our report 'Riding the Tariff Wave' released 9 April 2025, we estimated the unmitigated tariff impact of Trump's reciprocal tariffs on KMD to be approximately NZ$20m post-tax. The tariff landscape remains dynamic, with a 90 day pause on all reciprocal tariffs being recently enacted, alongside a 10% import tariff applied on all countries except China. Once this pause ends, we expect further changes to the global trade and tariff regime. Encouragingly, Trump has shown he is willing to negotiate on tariffs, and KMD's longer inventory lead times into the US provide a buffer period for global economies to negotiate trade and tariff deals with the US.
China is a major sourcing country for Rip Curl and a smaller sourcing country for Oboz. At face value, this raises concerns over sourcing cost pressures on US-bound product, however, flexibility in KMD's supply chain should be able to mitigate tariff-headwinds. Most of the Chinese-sourced goods for Rip Curl and Oboz is apparel— which can be redirected to other textile hubs like Bangladesh, Vietnam, or India. By contrast, more technical products—Rip Curl's wetsuits (Thailand) and Oboz's footwear (Vietnam)—are less mobile. Furthermore, Chinese production capacity contracted by KMD can be reallocated to supply non-US markets, while product for the US can be sourced from other, lower tariff countries.
Recent policy developments and further analysis of KMD's sourcing options gives us greater confidence that (1) KMD is well positioned to mitigate tariff exposure from Chinese-sourcing, and (2) Rip Curl and Oboz can maintain US market presence, assuming alternative sourcing nations continue to have more favourable tariff treatment. As a result, we revise our offset estimates upward, from c.50% to approximately two-thirds of the unmitigated tariff impact.
Earnings changes
We revise our forecasts in light of our more positive view on KMD's ability to offset tariff impacts. We now expect that KMD will be able to offset two-thirds of our unmitigated tariff impact estimate of c.NZ$20m, or only incur a NZ$7m post-tax impact from increased tariff costs. This assumption broadly equates to a c.10% tariff across all products into the US (NZ$10m increase in COGS based on the c.NZ$100m cost of goods for products into US). We reinstate a KMD FY26 dividend of NZ 1.5 cents per share given improved profitability in that period. Improved profitability also eases pressure on key balance sheet metrics.
term one of CD (chump the Dump) took 2 years for a china trade deal...
well ....
and with everything else falling apart for the chump in charge of the Dumb an Dumber House...
retail might not get wiped out then... good news..
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/23/business/stock-market-dow-jerome-powell-fed-trump/index.html
RBNZ mst be weeeeell behind now...
100 BPS needed soon...
1 % growth for current year predicted...
Mark... FAIL...D
huge drop in oil prices and it will drop farther now below 60....
RBNZ now well behind the curve... at least 50 needed ... 75 would and should be on the table.. 100 would get them ahead...
but after reading the latest tax payer letter which we dont have time to read... the ministries are busy being in conformance with the treaty than worrying about the economy....
they need your money .... you dont have money to spend on yourselfs... your not allowed...
Aussie retail going well (update from Vicinity VCX.ASX)
Portfolio sales trends in 3Q FY25:
• Robust retail sales growth in 3Q FY25 likely supported by positive shopper sentiment following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to reduce the official cash rate by 25bps in February, continued moderation of inflation, and strong employment
• Positive growth in 3Q FY25 delivered despite adverse impact of the timing of Easter in 2025 (i.e., Easter falls in 4Q FY25 versus 3Q FY24), Cyclone Alfred in south-east Queensland and one extra trading day in 3Q FY24 arising from the leap year in 2024
• Variation of retailer performance within consumer categories driven by increasing brand affinity by shoppers; Vicinity assets a key beneficiary of this trend following active retailer remixing activity, notably across its premium assets in FY24 and FY25
• Strongly performing categories included Leisure, driven by strong demand for athleisure, Jewellery, Retail Services and Homewares, which was supported by both traditional homewares and electronics
• Food retail and Food catering also performed strongly, reflecting Vicinity's focused investment in uplifting the quality of both its fresh food and in-centre dining offers across its portfolio
• Despite the timing of Easter, Apparel and Footwear sales in 3Q FY25 (excluding luxury) were positive, up +1.5%, led by fashion accessories and footwear
• CBDs continue to perform strongly, delivering +8.8% sales growth across the mini majors and specialty stores
Update from the other Australian mall owner
Scentre Group Chief Executive Officer Elliott Rusanow said: "Customer visitation to our 42 Westfield destinations in the 18 weeks to 4 May 2025 was 179 million, up 2.3% or 4.1 million more than the same period in 2024.
"Our business partners achieved $6.7 billion of sales in the 3 months ended 31 March 2025, up 2.8% compared to the same period in 2024.
"On a rolling 12-month basis to 31 March 2025, our business partners achieved record sales of $29.1 billion.
Quote from: KW on May 07, 2025, 12:47 PMUpdate from the other Australian mall owner
Scentre Group Chief Executive Officer Elliott Rusanow said: "Customer visitation to our 42 Westfield destinations in the 18 weeks to 4 May 2025 was 179 million, up 2.3% or 4.1 million more than the same period in 2024.
"Our business partners achieved $6.7 billion of sales in the 3 months ended 31 March 2025, up 2.8% compared to the same period in 2024.
"On a rolling 12-month basis to 31 March 2025, our business partners achieved record sales of $29.1 billion.
Assuming they count dollars spent or something like that? Just remind us what the Inflation currently is in Aus? If its something like 2 to 3%, then this means that they had nominally the same business as last year. Flatlining. Always good if ones record is exclusively thanks to inflation ...
GUNDLACH saying watch the long end and its at 4.7 and he says that inflation expectation from some surveys is at 6 percent for next year not 2....
the US facing the debt crunch... and hes expecting a shock in the system in the US private credit market...
30 yr creeping to 5.... bit like a tipping point...
the effeect ... https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
the Chump House will have to ban computer algo trading next...
once AI is connected LIVE to trading if they havnt already attempted it watch out...
Ir doesnt matter what the retail shopper is thinking... they arnt in control of the wallets...
and AI is smoothing out.. week by week.
Quote from: Waltzing on May 22, 2025, 08:15 AMthe effeect ... https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
the Chump House will have to ban computer algo trading next...
once AI is connected LIVE to trading if they havnt already attempted it watch out...
Ir doesnt matter what the retail shopper is thinking... they arnt in control of the wallets...
and AI is smoothing out.. week by week.
10yr US treasuries nearly 4.6% this morning and 30yrs close to 5.1%! - Ouch! - Somebody getting jittery?
yes and that puts pressure on the Japanese reserve bank....
is the US 30 year safe though...
Gold to go up farther.. boy as lenin says... nothing happens for decades and decades then tit tok decades happen in a week.
Quote from: Waltzing on May 22, 2025, 01:14 PMyes and that puts pressure on the Japanese reserve bank....
is the US 30 year safe though...
Gold to go up farther.. boy as lenin says... nothing happens for decades and decades then tit tok decades happen in a week.
Good question. Safest scenario I can see is the US inflating their way out of the debttrap they manoeuvred themselves into (From memory they are now at 125% GDP - and higher interest rates will kill them). This would keep the US 30 "safe", but this only works, if inflation is higher than interest. Not very attractive for holders.
Any other scenario looks less safe to me ... but I am sure Chump will sell them as well as he sells his worthless Dumbcoin and Elons Cybertrucks ...
I guess he has more than enough supporters with limited mental capacity hanging on his lips. How hard can it be for him to package worthless US 30íes together with Trumpcoins into virtual MAGA shares and sell these to his crowd? Until they notice that he conned them, he will be dead anyway.
Done - US saved and Trumps crowd gets what they deserve. How about that?
25 from the reserved bank... how reserved....
hopeless... should have been 75...
up to fast.. down to slow...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 28, 2025, 02:26 PM25 from the reserved bank... how reserved....
hopeless... should have been 75...
up to fast.. down to slow...
Yes, but spare a thought for the poor RB. Nobody can look into the future - so how could they know, whether Trump the Chump increases inflation for everybody by pushing up the prices for many essentials (which would mean RB actually needs to increase the rate to curb imported inflation), or whether the global recession Trump might design justifies a further interest drop. Given the time lag for the economy to respond do they sit between a rock and a hard place .... and move very slow and careful.
well yes stagflation... unless of course the country is structurally stuffed..and there is nothing the reserved bank can do .. but 25... the US will likely go into recession and the US does QE as no one want to buy there bonds... getting a bit carried away of course ... but Chump is all over the place and it will be like a fly wheel coming apart..
Quote from: Waltzing on May 28, 2025, 04:49 PMwell yes stagflation... unless of course the country is structurally stuffed..and there is nothing the reserved bank can do .. but 25... the US will likely go into recession and the US does QE as no one want to buy there bonds... getting a bit carried away of course ... but Chump is all over the place and it will be like a fly wheel coming apart..
Well, this would be an event worthwhile waiting for ...
Aussie -
Youth wallets tighten, but these younger consumers are still more optimistic than most shoppers
For the investor looking to get exposure to the best retailers catering to the demands of 18 to 34 year olds, UBS is tipping these stocks to soak up market share.
Younger Australians are more optimistic about their income, savings and wealth expectations compared to older age brackets, but they have traded down their spending on sneakers and travel for cheaper items like snacking on burritos (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/guzman-y-gomez-is-profitable-and-will-beat-prospectus-profit-forecast/news-story/71705050d373b941500645787eacccdb) and fried chicken (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/collins-foods-will-exit-germany-to-focus-on-kfc/news-story/dff6c99f282d56f44f28f9c78364d87b).
Still, those in their teens and mid-20s are expecting to spend more on music, arts and gambling than respondents in their mid-20s to 30s, a UBS survey of consumer intentions has found.
While select younger people might get help from the 'bank of mum and dad' for living expenses and housing, they are as a cohort following the lead of the rest of the economy in adapting to the habits enforced by the cost-of-living crisis.
This has compelled 18 to 34 year olds to trade down within categories such as fast food or fashion. And investors should take notice; the nation's 7 million youth consumers make up around 27 per cent of the population.
In fast food for example, Mexican-themed restaurant Guzman y Gomez is booking rising patronage but Domino's Pizza (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dominos-pizza-puts-brakes-on-ambitious-aggressive-store-roll-out/news-story/be3512243484351f56a2b9b48ca3cc70), Hungry Jacks and KFC are tracking weaker.
UBS thinks this supports its opinion that shares in GYG have 16.4 per cent upside to the current price. The broker still has a 'buy' recommendation on local KFC owner Collins Foods. A deep dive into stocks exposed to younger shoppers, and the best operators in their category, has led UBS to slap 'buy' recommendations on fashion chain Universal Store, footwear retailer Accent Group, Solomon Lew's Premier Investments (which owns kids stationery chain Smiggle and sleepwear brand Peter Alexander) (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/myers-deal-to-buy-solomon-lews-premier-apparel-brands-deemed-fair-and-reasonable/news-story/66ac3f66bf11183612f99409e804da13) and Collins Foods, the owner of more than 250 KFC stores.
The UBS Evidence Lab survey of 1,000 Australian adults polled between mid-May and early June found that younger consumers remained more optimistic financially over the next 12 months compared to all consumers.
For these shoppers, aged 18-34, cost-of-living pressures have moderated slightly quarter on quarter, yet are still mixed versus the average Australian consumer. Spending intentions were lower quarter on quarter, as well as year on year, and are now marginally below the average consumer, driven by lower income and wealth expectations.
"Youth consumers' income, savings and wealth expectations all moderated substantially and at a faster rate versus the average consumer, yet still remain positive and above the average consumer," concluded analyst Shaun Cousins.
The feeling of optimism, despite tougher financial conditions, could be simply a function of hopefulness.
Cost-of-living pressures were most intense for younger people in budget areas such as fuel, rent and interest rates but lower in food and utilities, the UBS survey reported.
Home improvement, clothing and footwear, domestic travel and food takeaway categories declined the most, based on measured spending intentions by category, both quarterly and annually. For the investor looking to get exposure to the best retailers catering to the demands of 18 to 34 year olds, UBS is tipping retailers that are soaking up market share. "We prefer strong operators / market share gainers exposed to the youth consumer in their categories of importance," citing Accent, Collins Foods, Premier and Universal Store.
UBS believes there is as much as 38.6 per cent upside to Universal Store's share price, 39.5 per cent upside to Accent's share price - almost one quarter of its stores are in youth-focused shoe banners - and 28.5 per cent upside to the Collins Foods share price.
UBS is 'neutral' on Guzman y Gomez but still sees 16.4 per cent upside to its valuation with 60.7 per cent of sales to the 18-34 year old demographic who are in turn 41.4 per cent of all turnover in the fast-food sector.
Accent, which is the nation's largest footwear retailer with banners like Hype, Glue and Platypus, is not impervious to a downturn. Accent recently issued a profit warning that put a dent in its share price, but this gloomier scenario was now 'built in' to the stock, Mr Cousins told The Australian.
"They've seen this slowdown in this spending, and the rationale for our retention of our 'buy' rating in that instance has been very much around we think a lot of that is in the price. And we look at a company like Universal Store as someone that is a very good operator in that youth apparel space (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/midmarket-fashion-retail-is-a-bargain-bin-fire-how-much-worse-can-it-get/news-story/d63f54c947f315abbf3620095475b19c) and we are confident that they can perform possibly in spite of what looks more challenging survey responses in this survey relative to what we've had in prior surveys."
A UBS poll published this time last year found a larger proportion of household budgets are being eaten by "pain" categories such as utilities, rent and insurance and eroding discretionary spending.
Should be good for HLG.
NZ job numbers still declining and the trend down is about 100 jobs lost per day. That's 700 fewer people earning and spending money - week. A $1m of wages gone. Every week. The reduced demand compounds.
No wonder retail spend continues to suffer
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 05, 2025, 01:00 PMNZ job numbers still declining and the trend down is about 100 jobs lost per day. That's 700 fewer people earning and spending money - week. A $1m of wages gone. Every week. The reduced demand compounds.
No wonder retail spend continues to suffer
Stephen Toplis, head of market research at BNZ, says experimental Stats NZ data released on Thursday sheds light on why: overall, households are not better off with lower interest rates — in fact, they are worse off.Falling mortgage rates are easing pressure on households with debt. Interest paid in the March quarter was down 3.5% on the same period a year earlier."But one shouldn't forget there is a significant chunk of the population that doesn't have any debt, many of whom rely on interest income for their day-to-day spending. Believe it or not, the income accruing to these folk has dropped by more than the reduction in the amount paid," Toplis wrote in a note.
Yes if the stats are right it may well lead to some knee reactions come voting time as voters panic..
The heat on the government to DO SOMETHING will grow by the public who dont study economics or accounting and really single dimensional accounting was dead the day Simula was created in 1963...
Retail stock will see the pain at some point no doubt... or as the OCR is lowered the economy will just crawl along...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/133946/reserve-bank-will-likely-end-sequence-six-consecutive-cuts-official-cash-rate-coming
Also this .... (from Australia)
Banks say borrowers aren't reducing home loan repayments as rates fall
Big banks say just one in 10 borrowers lowered their home loan repayments when the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates in May, reducing their mortgages faster instead of spending the savings.
Don't forget Interest rate drops take a LONG time to flow through to every with a mortgage.
I would post an image of the Total monthly interest costs paid by NZers, but in all truth I have no idea how to post an image on this site. EDIT: THANKS TO BUZZ FOR REMINDING ME HOW TO ATTACH PHOTOS
But in words, the low near the end of 2021 was approx $750 million in monthly interest payments - and as at the end of may we are still somewhere around $1 Billion higher than that at approximately $1.75 Billion monthly. the high reached in late 2024 was around $1.9 Billion, so we have barely seen the interest rate relief arrive yet.
In 6-12 months it shoud have flowed through to everyone's mortgage rate renewals hopefully, and we should be closer to $1 Billion in monthly mortgage interest payments. Which means more than $10 Billion reduction in annual interest payments vs the peak rate, which undoubtedly will mean a big boost in retail spending and people replenishing their savings which are currently being drawn down,
it is taking longer than we all would like (the slow pace of reductions by RBNZ isn't helping) but its basic math, eventually it will kick in.
Good stuff LEK
So households will have more than $10 billion (annual) more to spend. Sounds good.
Household consumption is about $250 billion annually
The $10 billion is about 4% of the total household spend
Hope inflation doesn't eat it all up ...esp if wages don't go up much ...and they can only still but about the same amount of stuff as now.
Remember how long recovery took after the GFC.. and this was bigger... in that QE added how much to the national debt.. plus not only did you get the CVD shut down you also got a monster recession... two hits...
that is going to takes... well we will see... more than 5 years?
600 and counting staff at the Reserved Bank... must be counting something...
they should have a graph right? that web site of the reserved bank should have some nice pictures somewhere...
like right on the front page with a revolving graphical display...
looks like a page for displaying on a DG with a green screen...
all those hundreds of millions of dollars and they have a text display and some excel worksheets....
AMAZING!!!! NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 08, 2025, 01:22 PMGood stuff LEK
So households will have more than $10 billion (annual) more to spend. Sounds good.
Household consumption is about $250 billion annually
The $10 billion is about 4% of the total household spend
Hope inflation doesn't eat it all up ...esp if wages don't go up much ...and they can only still but about the same amount of stuff as now.
Discretionary retail spend runs under $50 Billion though.
Just did a quick google.. only 32% of new zealanders have a mortgage
Quote from: mcdongle on Jul 09, 2025, 10:19 AMJust did a quick google.. only 32% of new zealanders have a mortgage
that 32% is for those that have a mortgage on their own home. You also have to include the investor mortgages on the one third of households that rent.
Now factor in that those that have a mortgage (either owner-occupiers or property investors) have on average far higher incomes than those that do not own property (renters).
Also, a large portion of owner occupiers that do not have a mortgage are retired people, who also have on average lower incomes.
In other words: those with mortgages are a big driver of discretionary retail spending.
Quote from: mcdongle on Jul 09, 2025, 10:19 AMJust did a quick google.. only 32% of new zealanders have a mortgage
32% of
households have a mortgage .....home ownership rate is about 66%
But rents are tumbling so that will put a rocket under retail discretionary spend
Retaileatch report June sales were DOWN 1.0% on June last year
Offshore online was up 11.3% though
LEK ...you follow Musical Chairs eh ...always has interesting insights eh
But I suppose you don't totally agree with his latest thoughts -
One of the many reasons that falling interest rates aren't kick-starting the economy. When we have pulled the 'cut the OCR' trick before, the whole world has been in trouble so import prices fell (and we were bettet off). This time, we're going it alone like absolute muppets.
NZ slammed the brakes on the economy harder than just about anyone else (Estonia also up there). A 500pts OCR hike with private debt at 160% of GDP and IIP at 50% of GDP, plus a public infra investment pause did real damage. When we have dropped the OCR before...
... this has been in response to a *global* downturn, which has come with reduced import prices (oil particularly). Lower import prices mean more demand / jobs onshore (and a GDP increase). In 2023/24, we went solo crashing the economy, so in 2024/25 we don't have...
... cheaper imports to help out. We also don't have a Govt willing to use public infra investment to help out. So, stagnation. This has been obvious outcome for ages, which is why I have been correctly calling BS on hopium 'return to equilibrium' forecasts for at least a year.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 10, 2025, 08:50 AMLEK ...you follow Musical Chairs eh ...always has interesting insights eh
But I suppose you don't totally agree with his latest thoughts -
One of the many reasons that falling interest rates aren't kick-starting the economy. When we have pulled the 'cut the OCR' trick before, the whole world has been in trouble so import prices fell (and we were bettet off). This time, we're going it alone like absolute muppets.
NZ slammed the brakes on the economy harder than just about anyone else (Estonia also up there). A 500pts OCR hike with private debt at 160% of GDP and IIP at 50% of GDP, plus a public infra investment pause did real damage. When we have dropped the OCR before...
... this has been in response to a *global* downturn, which has come with reduced import prices (oil particularly). Lower import prices mean more demand / jobs onshore (and a GDP increase). In 2023/24, we went solo crashing the economy, so in 2024/25 we don't have...
... cheaper imports to help out. We also don't have a Govt willing to use public infra investment to help out. So, stagnation. This has been obvious outcome for ages, which is why I have been correctly calling BS on hopium 'return to equilibrium' forecasts for at least a year.
They definitley often have some great charts and data. Don't always agree with them, but I am on the record as being strongly against the current government's stupid move to cancel/delay a massive amount of infrastructure spending - sending the economy into a downward spiral.
On a related note the RBNZ yesterday laid out how they expect the lower mortgage rates to flow through:
"Monetary policy settings can take 12 to 18 months to be fully felt in the economy, and so the RBNZ expects previous rate cuts to have a larger impact in the second half of the year.
The average mortgage rate is expected to fall from 5.9% today to about 5.2% by Christmas."
Reserve Bank also under the impressions that US tariffs will lead to Trade Diversion flooding us with cheaper imports and having a deflationary effect for NZ and other countries, while US inflation set to soar.
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Jul 09, 2025, 10:41 AMthat 32% is for those that have a mortgage on their own home. You also have to include the investor mortgages on the one third of households that rent.
Now factor in that those that have a mortgage (either owner-occupiers or property investors) have on average far higher incomes than those that do not own property (renters).
Also, a large portion of owner occupiers that do not have a mortgage are retired people, who also have on average lower incomes.
In other words: those with mortgages are a big driver of discretionary retail spending.
Yes you are right i should have included rentals , So i asked again.And of course AI came up with a different percentage of households with mortgages.
📊 Combined view
≈35.7% of households have a mortgage on their primary home.
≈7.9% have a mortgage on one or more rental properties.
These categories may overlap—some households hold both; but many are distinct (e.g. homeowners vs investor landlords).
We have to hope that post covid consumers / households habits/ priorities haven't changed and hunker down ...for good
Many might be thinking the country is stuffed and realise they've been living beyond their means so can't spend as freely as in the past
Colder weather has more people shopping for apparel. Paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/winter-chill-boosts-spending-as-kiwis-go-clothes-shopping/PTW2UBAMNFHJRPT4DK6UHB7J2I/
Quote from: Basil on Jul 14, 2025, 05:47 PMColder weather has more people shopping for apparel. Paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/winter-chill-boosts-spending-as-kiwis-go-clothes-shopping/PTW2UBAMNFHJRPT4DK6UHB7J2I/
The good ol' seasonality adjusted trick
Apparel sales were down 1% on June last year ...sales have down v pcp every month for last 12 months
At best you could say apparel sales are going backwards at a slower rate.
I liked the concluding remarks.
Quote"Compared to this time last year, fixed-term mortgage rates are around 170 to 200bps lower," he said.
"The full impact of those declines is yet to be felt as most New Zealand mortgages are fixed for a period."
Over the next six months, around half of all mortgages would come up for refixing, giving many borrowers the chance to secure a much lower rate, he said.
"The related increases in disposable income levels will be a boost for sentiment, and that should support a gradual recovery in spending as we approach the end of the year."
This may explain some of it...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/134305/former-prime-minister-john-key-says-reserve-bank-should-slash-interest-rates-and
Interesting Aussie stats...
There are fresh calls for a tax on fast fashion with a never-ending cycle of discounts, sale frenzies, and promotions, fuelling a consumption crisis. Australians are among the worst offenders in the world when it comes to fast fashion, purchasing more pieces per person than anywhere else. The level of overproduction and overconsumption is unprecedented. The average Australian buys 27 kilograms of new clothing each year, but dumps 23 kilograms
Quote from: KW on Jul 22, 2025, 09:55 AMInteresting Aussie stats...
There are fresh calls for a tax on fast fashion with a never-ending cycle of discounts, sale frenzies, and promotions, fuelling a consumption crisis. Australians are among the worst offenders in the world when it comes to fast fashion, purchasing more pieces per person than anywhere else. The level of overproduction and overconsumption is unprecedented. The average Australian buys 27 kilograms of new clothing each year, but dumps 23 kilograms
Zo doing ze maths.
27/23= 1.17. Zhis means ze Ozzie cousins are getting 17% vatter each year? Zounds about right.
RB
No wonder HLG is doing well....
The depreciating US dollar could also be good for inflation in both countries putting more pressure on RB's to reduce OCR's and push price of petrol down...
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/134408/roger-j-kerr-says-global-trade-scenario-emerging-could-be-real-benefit-new
perhaps the local grass skirt could make a come back and roto vagas retail tourist shops should do well...
Retailwatch had NZ retail sales for month of July UP 4% on July last year
Solid increases for both in-store and online.
TF's ... and some good news..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/us-tariff-uncertainty-clouds-new-zealands-economic-outlook-westpac/MY4FMY7FEJHEHPAPKANW2DXEIY/
and some export dollars...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/agribusiness/improved-farm-returns-lift-pgg-wrightson-profits-dividend-resumes/HFQXLS7EANGMVORUAUYBL3CPYA/
perhaps there are some green stuff appearing...
the reserved bank are all over the show when it come to WHAT, WHAT , WHAT to DO!!
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/134768/experts-agree-reserve-bank-should-cut-official-cash-rate-again-week-beyond-wide
they are STUMPED!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0xoX_9fAzQ
and its still good today!!!!
in fact its better than ever!!!
AUS is shopping apparently retail sales in the land down under will be interesting to 31 march 2026..
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/134792/financial-markets-broad-shallow-retreat-led-commodities-canadian-inflation-lower
unemployment not at its peak YET? its got to be rates cuts and damn the Vissles....
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/135033/cotality-says-caution-dominates-housing-market-and-its-unlikely-people-will-be
Quote from: Waltzing on Sep 04, 2025, 05:26 PMunemployment not at its peak YET? its got to be rates cuts and damn the Vissles....
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/135033/cotality-says-caution-dominates-housing-market-and-its-unlikely-people-will-be
I dont know why anyone is surprised the property market is still in the dumps, even if rates go lower still there are wide swaths of people that arent going to be buying while the government is still threatening large job cuts.
They should have just done massive cuts in first year and said thats it they are done cutting, at least then the 80-90% of workers that remained would be confident there jobs were secure and resume spending and buying property as they please.
The "not knowing" is simply wrecking the property market.
It was reported recently they are concerning increasing taxes.. well if labour comes in they will be huge,,. hide your wine bottles.. boats... anything that can be valued...More government jobs than before apparently...
its a council and government departs blow out and every other commission for this and that...
retail sales is being supported by ever increasing government spending.. a roger D moment coming ??
Farming exports saving the day apparently...
Retailwatch report show NZ sales for month of August up 5.7% on August last year. That's pretty good ....consumers starting to spend more.
In store sales up 3.9% ...online domestic up 8.4% and online offshore up 18.6%
Split of channel is instore 80% online domestic 8% and online offshore 12%
That online offshore is a growing channel ...not what NZ retailers want to hear what that's how the world of retailing is changing and they need to adapt .
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Jul 22, 2022, 07:11 PMWeekly Update:
CA218A0D-3FF2-48D0-BCED-1CE01B66F27E.jpeg
Came across this
Things have changed a lot
A couple of winners ...the others big losers
Love headlines along the lines of household wealth has increased by 33% from June 21 to June 24
Jeez you'd thingbthe so called 'wealth effect' would have resulted in pretty good retail sales
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 01, 2025, 08:22 AMLove headlines along the lines of household wealth has increased by 33% from June 21 to June 24
Jeez you'd thingbthe so called 'wealth effect' would have resulted in pretty good retail sales
Yeh maybe it just doesn't quite feel like cash these days??
Quote from: Otago K on Oct 01, 2025, 09:23 AMYeh maybe it just doesn't quite feel like cash these days??
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/574634/what-you-need-to-be-among-new-zealand-s-richest-people
I have some doubts about these statistics. Statistics dept says net average wealth has improved a lot in 2024 since 2021 because of house price increases. I think we all know that 2021 was the peak for house prices. I think many people have seen the value of their main asset falling and gone into their shell with spending on major items. Certainly high value discretionary items like boats and campervans are still very slow sellers. I suspect those that do have serious money to spend are pretty cautious, especially after that shock 0.9% negative GDP report the other day. RBNZ, in my opinion need to stump up and try and lead the economy out of the years long recession since Covid hit and cut 50 bps next week.
Retailwatch report September sales in NZ were UP 5.8% on September last year
In store sales +4.2% and online +8.8%
Things seem to be turning for the good in retail land .....no need for any more rate cuts
August report What MR AI thinks..
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/3acc64b8-d0d6-4020-a181-1498113c2b18
RetailWatch sales data for October month.
Total sales +2.8% v last year
Online Domestic +12.9%
Online offshore +13.1%
Instore +0.8%
Online makes up about 18% of total sales.
Possibly shows why physical stores are struggling
good news then or shows how bad last year was...
ANZ October card spending report:
https://d321bl9io865gk.cloudfront.net/view?src=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Card_Spending_October_2025.pdf%3FX-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAW3DTAMO2PNZSGZ3G%2F20251110%2Fap-southeast-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20251110T202918Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-Signature%3Dc7394c6d54c0322986b7739951a89c30c8115a6383e951d8757752051d611394%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost&data=mVu%2BLgCHWrYs08do%2FrotHedLzZ%2B%2FVTE6FCYBRR1ZZXZODye8vARQvNMEc8O3hg%2BjQXKDqz%2BAoAqTFwpFAhR9nufC4uOaZ3q17rS58nx6YnIGfwrDq1qX%2Bo2BjcprUM5e&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fpublications.anz.com%2F&namespaced=true&aid=a0NOa00000G3zsaMAB&perms=copy-paste;download;print;related-research&perms_sign=DLXrecD9xo%2BnS2gZ5ftrC%2F3fbfXU2IbFJwBvnLDxMXZf%2FK2RCEDmVKe4ksuVSkVCiMpJfWmzYRxqY1C4k1VUasTtCWR6JE%2BpNbuGrFr7hPXKw1BpbV17QvCPI73tr5J4aBhofyIFCtRqOjfNI6Ia5Jm%2FCbQ5Bj4mTt1QMZWs%2Bw8%3D×tamp=1762806560&rating_opts={%22ratingValue%22:%220%22,%22ratingType%22:%22star%22}&orgId=00D4a0000008ad2EAA&orgType=prod
Jewelry up 12%
Appliances & Electrical up 4.6%
Hobby, toy & game stores up 24%
From the AFR: Amazon, Temu, Shein to control a third of online retail by next year (Australia). Paywall removed.
https://archive.ph/20251117050643/https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/amazon-temu-shein-to-control-a-third-of-online-retail-by-next-year-20251114-p5nfjy
Copy and paste whole hyperlink above into browser to view - cant click and view for some reason
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/a4b3882f-7df1-4d18-9ffd-2e904b4e1d87
HOUSE HOLD SPENDING AUS..
This make the forum happy?
old stats of course...
NOV now and a super hot summer about to roast the islands bare... beaches will be packed!!!
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/136349/stats-nz-reports-472-million-inflation-adjusted-seasonally-adjusted-increase-volume
is this actually a sign that everyone went out and bought old cars from turners (other places) and then also fixed up the old bangers....
food went down and drink up...
everyone then went out and got drunk and no one eat anything much... that doesnt sound good....!!!!
Yep total retail Sept Qtr up 5.0% on last year ...most categories solid
RetailWatch reports Jan month sales +5.6% on Jan last year
In store sales +2.5 and on-line +21.2%
Stores not any busier ...maybe cover expenses eh but on-line the way to go
On-line 19% of sales
31 march / april sales may be up farther as this a very late start to summer in the central north island and BOP having been hit with a shocker of a start to the summer season...
lets see what the 1 qtr brings but suspect it might be a stall.. lets hope not...
more than 450,000 and growing currently on a benefit
Can't be helping retail sales
Westpac Kelly getting excited
Our February card spending data shows a further 0.7% lift in spending in February implying 6.6% growth versus a year ago.
What's remarkable is how the patterns of spending have changed as lower interest rates and strong commodity returns have hit the economy's bloodstream.
Discretionary includes clothes - go HLG
Screenshot 2026-03-06 120220.png
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 06, 2026, 12:07 PMWestpac Kelly getting excited
Our February card spending data shows a further 0.7% lift in spending in February implying 6.6% growth versus a year ago.
What's remarkable is how the patterns of spending have changed as lower interest rates and strong commodity returns have hit the economy's bloodstream.
Discretionary includes clothes - go HLG
Screenshot 2026-03-06 120220.png
"What's remarkable is how the patterns of spending have changed as lower interest rates and strong commodity returns have hit the economy's bloodstream"
Is it remarkable or exactly as expected would happen?
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Mar 07, 2026, 08:33 AM"What's remarkable is how the patterns of spending have changed as lower interest rates and strong commodity returns have hit the economy's bloodstream"
Is it remarkable or exactly as expected would happen?
Apparently although monthly interest payments for mortgages has fallen the total interest being paid is still a lot higher than in 2020
Maybe households not out of the woods yet but nots let ruin a good story and upset likes of Westpac Kelly
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 07, 2026, 09:00 AMApparently although monthly interest payments for mortgages has fallen the total interest being paid is still a lot higher than in 2020
Maybe households not out of the woods yet but nots let ruin a good story and upset likes of Westpac Kelly
Not surprised. Average incomes are up somewhere between 15-20% since start of 2020, and even with the downturn, property prices are also significantly higher than start of 2020.
yes but will there be anyone here to shop till they drop.. or did they all decide to step across the ditch and shop there? still if you hold NZX stocks that also have a strong present in AUS you can catch all these people shopping anyway..
who would have though CNN would be reporting on NZ!!!
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/06/world/new-zealand-australia-emigration-midlife-intl-hnk-dst
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 08, 2026, 06:50 PMyes but will there be anyone here to shop till they drop.. or did they all decide to step across the ditch and shop there? still if you hold NZX stocks that also have a strong present in AUS you can catch all these people shopping anyway..
HLG
thought the retail market have a slight blip here..
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-us-war-oil-prices-brent-wti-barrel-futures.html
Not quite sure where to post this but its worth listening too. (Labour / Green supporters might not think so).
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-prime-minister-christopher-luxon-and-finance-minister-nicola-willis-discuss-iran-war-fallout-and-leadership-speculation/LAJEQ74DYFA4XCKCPTFQPWG3WE/
Quote from: Basil on Mar 09, 2026, 05:19 PMNot quite sure where to post this but its worth listening too. (Labour / Green supporters might not think so).
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-prime-minister-christopher-luxon-and-finance-minister-nicola-willis-discuss-iran-war-fallout-and-leadership-speculation/LAJEQ74DYFA4XCKCPTFQPWG3WE/
Labour wants a cut in fuel tax now to help people cope with the impending price spike. National have ruled that out, and are only proposing delaying the introduction of increased fuel taxes next year.
So we have both the Labour Party and the taxpayers Union calling for immediate cuts to fuel taxes, and national saying no but maybe next year.
probably should be over in the politics thread that no one reads..
well back to retail OIL drops over night but retail will get hit a bit as OCR hikes are now back on the table sooner rather than later.
back under 100 thank goodness...for the moment.
Somethings just happened. Just as I was posting about something else.....BREAKING NEWS on CNBC in a phone interview President Trump told CBS " the war could be over soon. I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. He added that the US is very far ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated timeframe.
West Texas oil now under $90, was nearly $120 yesterday. All the major indices, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq now positive on the day.
Brent crude now $92, was close to $120 yesterday.
Definitly a change in narrative from Trump which the market is interpreting in a positive way. Small encouragement and much needed.
Get out there today and walk your dog or something similar you enjoy. What's happening could be over soon. I hope you all have a better day than yesterday.
Update. Brent $87, Nymex $83.
According to CNBC the correlation between the market and oil is currently minus 0.8. In other words, in a nutshell the oil price is driving this market. Huge fall from the Oil price peak of nearly $120 yesterday
The best thing to do in times like this is...wait for it... nothing! Possibly the next best thing is to bargain hunt.
Retail Watch had Feb month sales up 6.0% on last year. Along with fuel and booze Department Stores were the only losers.
In-store sales +3.5% while on-line +18.7% ..seems a recent trend with on-line doing much better than in-store.
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Jun 27, 2022, 01:23 PMWeekly Update:
F4D42D86-A6A6-41A8-9EA9-0FD2ABED2ECE.jpeg
A lot has happened since 2022
Think LEK started this to get a feel for share prices might bottom out ....KMD, MHJ and WHS still looking sad eh
What has happened to TRA and HLG I ask
Fascinating to look back. WOW, just generalising, but what a staggering difference between those that got their choices right, approx $2.50 for each dollar invested and those that got it wrong, in some cases 25 cents on the dollar.
Get it right and you have approx ten times the capital now than if you chose badly. Crickey !
Quote from: Basil on Mar 22, 2026, 10:21 AMFascinating to look back. WOW, just generalising, but what a staggering difference between those that got their choices right, approx $2.50 for each dollar invested and those that got it wrong, in some cases 25 cents on the dollar.
Get it right and you have approx ten times the capital now than if you chose badly. Crickey !
The difference in share price performance (market cap) reflects the difference in a few retail fundamental metrics
Like profitability largely depends on gross margins and stock turns while managing costs
Great measure is how much Gross Margin $s generated from a $ of stock
With HLG, KMD and WHS reporting this week I'll update those key metrics and share with you.
Guess who does best in these
Retailers should be feeling happier
Retailwatch March data had sales for month +9.1% v March last year ...and 5.2% up on February
Fuel was +17% but most categories had solid increases
Even clothing was a solid 4.4%
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 13, 2026, 07:58 AMRetailers should be feeling happier
Retailwatch March data had sales for month +9.1% v March last year ...and 5.2% up on February
Fuel was +17% but most categories had solid increases
Even clothing was a solid 4.4%
So - March, this was after Trumps attack against the Iran and petrol already high?
One sort of wonders, where the money is coming from.
On the other hand - are you sure you entered the right year?
My Google AI says related to Retailwatch March 2026 NZ::
QuoteKey Trends & Data (Based on available 2025/2026 reports):
March 2026 Outlook: Retail NZ reported that the sector experienced a 3% decline in March, indicating ongoing challenges for the industry.
Previous Year Comparison (March 2025): The Stats NZ March 2025 quarter saw a 1.5% rise ($464 million) in total value of retail sales, with 11 of 15 industries increasing.
Regional Performance (March 2025): All 16 regions experienced higher seasonally adjusted sales values in the March 2025 quarter compared to December 2024, with Auckland (up 1.9%) and Canterbury (up 2.4%) leading in value.
Consumer Behavior: Consumers are increasingly moving away from high-priced local retail, opting for direct-from-China options, which contributes to lower local sales volumes.
Doesn't sound that flash, but hey - we'll see which of the AI's is right. Maybe they start to reduce the power supply for the AI data centers? Would this be good or bad?
Westpac a bit downbeat ...based on what their cardholders spend
https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2026/04/westpac-nz-spending-pulse-march-2026?ai=1776023671431&cd=53404&cid=edm
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 13, 2026, 08:41 AMSo - March, this was after Trumps attack against the Iran and petrol already high?
One sort of wonders, where the money is coming from.
On the other hand - are you sure you entered the right year?
My Google AI says related to Retailwatch March 2026 NZ::
Doesn't sound that flash, but hey - we'll see which of the AI's is right. Maybe they start to reduce the power supply for the AI data centers? Would this be good or bad?
Different RetailWatch Peter
My Retailwatch is from a Datamine database
Your RetailWatch is from Retail NZ ...feedback based rather than real data on
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 13, 2026, 09:24 AMDifferent RetailWatch Peter
My Retailwatch is from a Datamine database
Your RetailWatch is from Retail NZ ...feedback based rather than real data on
Interesting.
But the quesiton still is - where is this money coming from? Given that many people can't just take the money from their savings account ... and the salary rises so far haven't been that amazing either. In what areas did they spoend less to allow for all this retail spending?
Lots of fixed mortgages have rolled off higher rates in the last year. Reports also that the average weekly rent nationwide has dropped $25 year on year.
Fonterra payout will be a meaningful tailwind to the retail sector.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 13, 2026, 11:11 AMLots of fixed mortgages have rolled off higher rates in the last year. Reports also that the average weekly rent nationwide has dropped $25 year on year.
Fonterra payout will be a meaningful tailwind to the retail sector.
Hmm ...
Fonterra payout hardly impacted on the March sales of Glassons. It only came in April, didn't it, and while it might feed the iron desease (our tractor shops seem ot have increased their stock) and some outstanding world trips - I doubt it will do a lot for increasing the general retail spending?
Some rents going down a bit (what $25 per week), but try to console that with doubling the bill at the petrol station. We don't drive too much (but live rural) - and for us its already roughly $200 per month more for fuel.
New mortgages already going up again ... and anybody with a little bit of brain won't use any temporary reduction in buying a new T shirt, but increasing their payback before the next high interest rate comes back.
So, yes, some things came down a wee bit, and I am sure most of the people in this forum will cope, but for the general population - they are financially stretched, and currently its certainly worse for them then it used to be a year ago.
Anyway ... still interested to see where the supposed increase in retail expenditure came from, but I guess more time will bring more data.
From Westpac today;
ASX RELEASE
14 April 2026
ITEMS IMPACTING HALF YEAR 2026 RESULTS
Westpac is well positioned to support customers amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
In addition to disclosing the accounting treatment of the pending sale of the RAMS mortgage portfolio,
we're providing clarity on the initial impacts of the Middle East conflict.
With the supply shock from the energy market disruption expected to result in higher inflation
and higher interest rates, an expected slowing in economic growth will create a more challenging
environment for some customers