Curious what others have on their watch list should suitable discounts arise
Mine (in no order): Heartland, Contact, Genesis, HLG (would be my first time as a holder), Skellerup, a sprinkle of RV's, AFT Pharmaceuticals, Vulcan Steel, FPH (long admired, never owned, would like to add at some point). Some other goodies (IE TRA etc) out there but if not on the list I'm already overweight.
Looking a bit more seriously at the USX re SFF and PAZ
Got my list of catalysts and triggers for timing each further investment. Some of those catalysts I can see taking a year to occur.
See how well I hold to that. I got itchy fingers and bought a small stake of Skellerup at $4.41 the other week (probably about 1/3 to 1/4 what I want to eventually add). Will probably wind up DCA my way into a few premature to my plan - as plan is based around some guesses about what will happen and who knows when bear market will actually turn.
Got my list of aussie ones too.
For me its ARG,CEN,EBO,FPH,GNE,HGH,KPG,MCY,MFT,SPK for long term holding.
Maybe SUM, PFI.
I have been taking advantage of market weakness and buying new positions in Google, PayPal, Amazon and have added to my position in Apple. In New Zealand added more Ryman and Sum and Gne. Gne I thought was a great price and now have a large position.
Will also add to Mainfreight position around the $65 mark if possible and would love to get some more Ebos.
Just adding small amounts to existing holdings at this stage MHJ STU SKT am in a wait and see holding pattern using a weight of the evidence approach.
Adding to Mainfreight, Infratil and Meridian.
Strong supply chain tail winds for Mainfreight will continue, even in the face of the current storm. Heavily oversold IMO
EVN on the ASX was slammed yesterday, it was the worst performer in the ASX200 on a relatively tame business update, I added a ton more to my holding at close yesterday and doubled down again at open today.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-invest-during-a-bear-market
Quote from: Norwest on Jun 28, 2022, 06:34 PMEVN on the ASX was slammed yesterday, it was the worst performer in the ASX200 on a relatively tame business update, I added a ton more to my holding at close yesterday and doubled down again at open today.
Ever wondered why SP is dropping?
I don't know the company, but sometimes markets are right and sometimes they are wrong.
Looking at it from a TA perspective - spectacular downtrend. Might want to have a chat with KW about buying in downtrends.
On the other hand - it does look a bit oversold. However - trying to make money from dead cat bounces requires balls of steel ... and they just make the walking so inconvenient.
I like ARG, ARV, STU and/or VSL, FPH a bit lower if that eventuates, maybe $16-18.
Also like AIR a lot around here. I sold out immediately after the Covid thing at around $1.25-1.30 and. I never understood the optimism in 2020-2021 but now at 55c think it's cheap on a 3-4 year view should be $1 and paying dividends again in FY26.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129159882/sharemarket-down-175-faces-challenging-outlook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiFRkOSmPlc
Have sold a couple of rental properties with settlement coming up soon. Looking at investing back into the NZX as I believe that the current environment bodes well.
The only NZ stock I currently have is Ryman as I sold down most of my shares earlier on this year. Wanting long term holds with a mixture of safety/growth stocks and a percentage in possible M&A plays and turnarounds.
I'm of the belief that with the state of the economy, further cuts to the OCR are coming. With that in mind the New Zealand share market will continue its upward trend as low deposit rates will force people into the sharemarket. With some of our stocks already beaten down coupled with an attractive exchange rate my conviction of M and A is high.
So what to buy and why?
Appreciate your thoughts
DID They miss out on TRA did they...
well dont worry since NZ has already crashed the bottom was about may... as exports have halted sinking ship..
its a good list of companies though..
Thanks for resurrecting this thread.
I picked up some more TRA during the week. They've grown earnings through a very difficult period and now hopefully the lower interest rate environment will provide a swift tailwind. Based on fy26 forecast dps of 32.5, TRA trades at a 6.5% gross yield. I'm very happy to buy stock at this price, collect the dividends and let the growth play out. Much better than cash ITB.
I'm also looking for other opportunities but meanwhile I've been very pleased with my Global Share index funds, the PIE funds Australian Dividend Fund and the Salt Long Short Fund.
That Craigs list is pretty close to KFL holdings...exceptions from what I can see are CHI, RYM ..Kfl exited and bought more SUM, SKT, SKO , TWR
Buy KFL collect the 9% quarterly pie divies, drp discount and go fishing or play golf...lol
Sold out of vista for now. U.S has worried me and they are heading into negative gdp very soon. Might come quick and last
Holding large on tower
Have taken a big postion in seeka at $3.40 share average buy in. They have so much more room to keep going I'm surprised no one talks about it.
Interesting conviction list Shareguy, thanks for sharing.
TINA (there is no alternative)...to stocks is going to be a huge factor over the next few years as we traverse the bottom of the interest rate cycle. In my opinion the OCR needs to come down a lot and stay down for a LONG time so bond yields will be very modest and even more modest going forward. (I prefer defensive yield like GNE and REIT's like KPG and ARG as alternatives to corporate bonds and have large positions in those three)
Classic portfolio theory suggests a 50-60% allocation to stocks, 30-40% bonds and 10% allocation to alternative asset class. For me, I'd rather own the above three, (which make up just on 33% of my portfolio) as quasi bonds which at the prices I paid are yielding me an average gross return of just on 10%. That's heaps better than buying a bunch of investment grade corporate bonds yielding about half that. Additionally I think the REIT's are still at a very favorable part of the cycle with considerable upside over the next 2-3 years.
Thoughts on Craigs conviction portfolio. They're certainly not value or GARP investors as almost all stocks on that list are epic fails in terms of my screening criteria, (explained in post #10 in this thread for those that haven't seen it https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=367.0)
Couple of examples:-
FPH, you pare paying 58 times earnings for a company with a 5 year CAGR of only 5% (future growth is more than fully priced in)
EBO, you are paying 24 times earnings for a company that has not grown earnings in the last 5 years, (they have a lot of work ahead of them to regain market darling status)
Stocks on Craigs list that screen as exceptional value using my GARP criteria include:-
SUM, you're paying no growth metrics for a company that's growing EPS at a 5 year CAGR of 15%...when the real estate market finally bottoms, this is the one to buy in that sector in my opinion. RYM and OCA are epic fails in every respect by comparison to SUM and fully deserving to be in the dog box.
TWR - Looks dirt cheap any way you measure it, (holding a decent sized allocation and very recently added some more).
Other recent additions to my portfolio.
TRA - topped up more this week. Have also articulated why in that thread.
HLG - added quite a lot more since the FY25 forecast update, truly compelling metrics.
M&A - See MCK thread. While nothing is certain, I think there's a very good chance this time next year that company will no longer be listed on the NZX.
None of the other stocks mentioned on Craigs list fit my value screening process. Happy to stay less diversified than they are.
well so much for the list then... pre COVID stocks...pre recession..
Recently the commentators over the weekend have basically said its the end of the UN and the world order...
Empire is back and one wonders if that means the WTO is gone as well....
Is it the end of stock markets and the return of GOLD?
@Basil not sure if you saw the timestamp, but the original posts in this thread were from 2022
Quote from: entrep on Sep 22, 2025, 08:24 AM@Basil not sure if you saw the timestamp, but the original posts in this thread were from 2022
Yes. You may have noticed a bit of a theme with my investing. Solid companies with resilient earnings and growth with companies with a long proven history of growth in EPS, but only at a very reasonable price. That's a function of my age and risk profile mate. I'll be eligible for superannuation next year. Younger investors may feel more comfortable taking more risk with growth and technology stocks.
Thanks all for your contributions we have some shopping to do. The only real shopping I enjoy.
Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 22, 2025, 05:32 PMThe only real shopping I enjoy.
Me too and that's because investing in quality companies is the gift you give your future self and loved ones. ;)