https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/08/inflation-expectations-plunge-in-closely-watched-university-of-michigan-survey.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/11/asia-markets.html
We have had a call made from Sir B that the OCR may get a cut as early as mid 2024...
Note: COMP PROP stock ARG moved up on friday from a low of 105.
The US 10 year dropped below 4 last week.
Is the LOW in even if the US has a shallow recession later next year.
NZ already being in a recession according to the lastest stats which needed adjusting backward for how many QTR's?
Where did all that money go that the last government spent. Maybe not of upgrading the statistical gathering systems of NZ.
A German data scientists in Palmy university complained he had to run software from his own home to get accurate data.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 18, 2023, 08:15 AMWhere did all that money go that the last government spent. Maybe not of upgrading the statistical gathering systems of NZ.
A German data scientists in Palmy university complained he had to run software from his own home to get accurate data.
First rule of running a Govt funded media and propaganda campaign for 3 years is to shut down the actual truth tellers.
Some rate stuff .... for those in the markets back then ....
The OCR is essentially a political construct, and it's ups and downs are controlled by the government of the day. Just no longer publicly and explicitly by the Minister of Finance.
If a high OCR is politically unpalatable, it will be cut. If a lowOCR is politically unpalatable, it will be raised.
The bond market is the RBNZ's boss, there is now a full percentage point difference between the 10 year yields and the Official cash rate (OCR). Eighty percent of the time the OCR is above the rate of inflation, that is about to happen, I believe that inflation will come in at around 4.9.
Once the difference between these two markers becomes significant, Ten year yields and OCR, OCR and inflation the RBNZ will come under quite intense pressure to cut the OCR.
I now see that last month Westpac dropped its mortgage lending and some deposit rates and tonight ANZ has just done the same thing to reflect the recent decrease in wholesale swap rates, all this despite RBNZ governor Orr's hawkish statements at the MPS (Monetary Policy Statement) end of November, just as well really that only a few rubes believed him.
The NZ Herald reports that,
"Swap rates have fallen sharply in recent weeks on the expectation that central banks will soon start cutting their cash rates."
except that nobody told Orr who was busy pouring hot oil on the peasants from the parapet.
Yes its hit the daily news stands ....
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/125777/pre-christmas-move-our-largest-bank-trims-some-key-mortgage-rates-and-some
Will we see equities starting to catch a bid as the investing public realise the TD yield party is late in the evening.
Was it the fastest rate hiking cycle in history? Pretty steep away.
Yep, one word FOMO, when your buddy is skiting about the 20% he just made on some equity and your still in TD earning 6% it's no contest.