StockTalk

General Category => NZX => Topic started by: kiwi2007 on Dec 08, 2023, 10:03 AM

Title: SCL - Scales
Post by: kiwi2007 on Dec 08, 2023, 10:03 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423143

MARKET UPDATE

2023 TRADING

The directors of Scales Corporation Limited (NZX:SCL) have reiterated market guidance for the twelve months to 31 December 2023, of an Underlying Net Profit after Tax Attributable to Shareholders range of $14.0 million to $19.0 million.

Managing Director Andy Borland notes "2023 has been a very challenging year, particularly for our Hawke's Bay staff and the wider community, following Cyclone Gabrielle. We are very proud of the resilience shown by all of our team members in response to this event. Their ability and effort in resuming operations and remediating damaged orchards was outstanding. It is very pleasing to see the "fruits" of this work with all affected orchard area now cleared of silt and remediated, and with a promising 2024 apple crop currently on the trees.

As previously reported, Scales continues to benefit from our diversified nature and, once again this year, from the performance of the Global Proteins division. Trading has continued positively in the second half of the year, despite the impact of post-COVID rebalancing of inventories amongst petfood manufacturers.

We are particularly pleased with the expansion into the European petfood ingredients market this year, via joint venture Esro Petfood BV. This investment is further positive progress in the international expansion of the Global Proteins division and we look forward to providing further commentary on the division at the time of the 2023 results release, in February next year".

2024 GUIDANCE

Looking ahead to the 2024 financial year, directors advise an Underlying Net Profit after Tax Attributable to Shareholders Guidance range of $30.0 million to $35.0 million.

Nice...
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Waltzing on Jan 06, 2024, 06:51 AM
A sector that we should not forget to cover and take an interest in...

Better have a good read ..
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: kiwi2007 on Jan 06, 2024, 12:20 PM
Chart looking good: Just popping it's head up over the top of the last 10 months trading range. Increasing its  divi is forecast but with lower imputation.  380-85c are analysts (2) forecast for 2024.

Only 5700 shares on offer, anyone with a spare $20K could clear them out and do me a favour ;o). 
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Basil on Jan 08, 2024, 07:01 PM
Brought up a 5 year chart, not a random pick, (5 years is always my standard reference period for analysis) and it was $4.50 5 years ago.  Oh dear.  My dislike for agri stocks is they have good years and bad years, good harvests and bad ones and are subject to wide variations in the price of the commodity along with all the other agricultural risks of disease, pestilence, droughts and floods etc.

Was rewarding for original IPO investors at from vague memory about $1.50 but this has in recent years traded on multiples that don't really reflect all the risks.
Looking at the eps off Jarden's website for 2018 to 2022 we see eps as follows 0.20   0.32   0.15   0.19   0.14
Average that out to eliminate seasonal variations in earnings from one year to another and we get 20 cents eps a share.  Put a no growth agri risk PE of 8.0 on that because there is no clear pattern of growth and we get $1.60 and that explains why I am not a shareholder, nor likely to be one anytime soon.

I'm simply not buying into the wonderful opportunities for growth with this one because there hasn't been any true growth over the years.  The risk with this one to my mind has always been in seeing a good year forecast and paying too much assuming it's the start of some new trend of nicely increased profits going ahead in the medium to long term.  A good year's forecast is just that, a forecast of one year's good harvest and anticipation of selling at favorable prices.  The year thereafter is just as likely to be very different as any other outcome.

Maybe I'm missing something with this one but the average numbers don't paint a good enough picture for me to bother too hard trying to find it.

The other point that I think is also worth noting is that the risks from extreme weather events is probably going to keep getting worse every year with global warming.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if we see another extreme weather event down there this summer and if not this summer, probably next.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 07:48 AM

Future growth will come from their Pet Food ingredients businesses in NZ,AUssie,USA and Europe.
From SCL's last update.
We are particularly pleased with the expansion into the European pet food ingredients market this
year, via joint venture Esro Petfood BV. This investment is further positive progress in the
international expansion of the Global Proteins division and we look forward to providing further
commentary on the division at the time of the 2023 results release, in February next year".
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: BlackPeter on Jan 09, 2024, 10:16 AM
Quote from: Basil on Jan 08, 2024, 07:01 PMBrought up a 5 year chart, not a random pick, (5 years is always my standard reference period for analysis) and it was $4.50 5 years ago.  Oh dear.  My dislike for agri stocks is they have good years and bad years, good harvests and bad ones and are subject to wide variations in the price of the commodity along with all the other agricultural risks of disease, pestilence, droughts and floods etc.

Was rewarding for original IPO investors at from vague memory about $1.50 but this has in recent years traded on multiples that don't really reflect all the risks.
Looking at the eps off Jarden's website for 2018 to 2022 we see eps as follows 0.20   0.32   0.15   0.19   0.14
Average that out to eliminate seasonal variations in earnings from one year to another and we get 20 cents eps a share.  Put a no growth agri risk PE of 8.0 on that because there is no clear pattern of growth and we get $1.60 and that explains why I am not a shareholder, nor likely to be one anytime soon.

I'm simply not buying into the wonderful opportunities for growth with this one because there hasn't been any true growth over the years.  The risk with this one to my mind has always been in seeing a good year forecast and paying too much assuming it's the start of some new trend of nicely increased profits going ahead in the medium to long term.  A good year's forecast is just that, a forecast of one year's good harvest and anticipation of selling at favorable prices.  The year thereafter is just as likely to be very different as any other outcome.

Maybe I'm missing something with this one but the average numbers don't paint a good enough picture for me to bother too hard trying to find it.

The other point that I think is also worth noting is that the risks from extreme weather events is probably going to keep getting worse every year with global warming.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if we see another extreme weather event down there this summer and if not this summer, probably next.

I guess if you assess an agricultural cyclical in the same way one would assess a toilet paper manufacturer, than you are right. No long term growth (unless they buy their competitors), and sure - the average earnings per share have been 26 cents over the last 10 years, which gives an average PE of 12.5 at the current SP of $3.30. Not terrible, but not exciting either.

Just not sure, whether it makes sense to buy a cyclical just on average earnings and growth. The thing with cyclicals is, you buy them when everybody looks down on them and they are cheap (that's the easy bit), and you sell them when everybody loves them and they are dear (that's the hard bit).

FWIW - I bought / accumulated some over the last 6 months or so while everybody was trashing horticultural stocks ... and intend to hold until too many people on this forum tell me that they are the best thing since the invention of sliced bread.

Admit however, that their protein division (good point, lorraina) might turn into a real (and growing) money spinner and brake the cycle, so - who knows, maybe I'll stick with this cyclical longer than I currently imagine.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 10:28 AM
From last year's agm presentation.
 [SLIDE 26: GLOBAL PROTEINS – WHAT WE LIKE ABOUT THE GLOBAL PROTEINS INDUSTRY]
I'd now like to touch on the future of the Global Proteins division, as we're very optimistic about its prospects.
We've summarised the attributes of the division on the current slide, which includes resiliency against market cycles
as well as above-average returns on investment. The worldwide nature of the opportunities also allows us to leverage
our existing networks, with our current focus being towards North America.
The industry is supported by many macro tailwinds including the global growth of the middle class and its associated
demand for protein. We see no abatement in the demand for protein for the foreseeable future.
Our petfood customers are also particularly optimistic about the future, and are investing substantial sums to meet
future demand.
Supply chains and sourcing of raw materials have been identified as the biggest future production challenges for
petfood manufacturers. Meateor and Shelby have a very experienced and well-connected leadership team and have
developed deep relationships with customers over 25 years, which gives us confidence we will participate alongside
our customers in this growth.
[SLIDE 27: GLOBAL AMBITIONS]
As a result of the opportunities I've just described, we have global ambitions for the division.
As shown on this slide, we already have significant operations in New Zealand, Australia and North America. North
America is the world's largest petfood market, with Europe being the second largest. As many of our existing customers
operate in Europe, we're continually looking for ways to extend our operations there. As a result, discussions regarding
potential opportunities are currently taking place.
[SLIDE 28: OUR EXPANSION MODEL]
The structure that we have in place today is a result of careful planning. We specifically target existing in-market
players with strong existing relationships and find a way to partner with them. We'll continue to adopt this strategy
for growth.
Once we've invested, we'll leverage our existing experience and relationships to achieve win-win synergies and growth
across the expanded Group. Our current investment parameters will ensure that potential opportunities have strong
earnings and cashflows, which allow a significant portion to flow to the parent company.

Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Basil on Jan 09, 2024, 02:15 PM
Pet food industry is highly competitive.  They'll need to take a "dogged" approach to trying to build scale and efficiencies.  Think they were doing this many years ago when I was a holder and made a few bucks out of this.  Not much progress looking at recent years earnings. BP - I am happiest sticking with my always used standard 5 year timeline reference for all stocks as I believe the most recent 5 years is the best guide to the next 5 years.  You're never going to convince me otherwise and likely I'll never convince you to change the way you assess stocks.  With average earnings of 20 cps I see little to get enthusiastic over.  I genuinely believe with deadly serious global warming now, we are now in a new era of really extreme weather events and the risks to Scales going forward are a lot higher than they were even 5 years ago.    Each to their own, good luck with this one.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 03:00 PM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SCL/409150/391657.pdf
I think you need to read page 28 onwards of their annual report.
Compare the ingredients results to the horticulture results,
 
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 09, 2024, 04:17 PM
Not really a horticulture company are they these days
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 04:48 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 09, 2024, 04:17 PMNot really a horticulture company are they these days

No.More a growth pet food ingredients company that has a bit of a legacy horticulture interest...lol
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: KW on Jan 09, 2024, 05:22 PM
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 04:48 PMNo.More a growth pet food ingredients company that has a bit of a legacy horticulture interest...lol

Similar to RIC on the ASX if you want something to compare it too, they operate in NZ as well.  Just bought Oceania Meat Processors. 
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133509399/strategic-move-australian-pet-food-company-acquires-kiwi-meat-processing-company
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 05:26 PM
Good sector.
I have a good holding in Christchurch business that not only processes ingredients for pets but for humans too,[up pharmaceutical grade.]
Expansion has been hindered by Covid and logistics delays,however they are now getting back on track. 
 
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 09, 2024, 05:28 PM
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 05:26 PMGood sector.


Scales, Pharmazen, Ebos .......what a threesome in pet food
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 05:39 PM
One of the issues the sector has faced is the shortage of staff at the meat processors.
The meat works have therefore concentrated on the high profit cuts, rather than bothering with the bye products that the sector requires.
With the meat works attracting more staff,the issue is now [being] fixed.
 
Not sure whether I have told the story about Ziwi Peaks Rolleston factory.
Livers,Kidneys etc are boiled up,then cooled down and flattened.Then cut into dog biscuits.
The stink is horrendous.
Their factory is located between Rolleston Prison and Burnham Military camp.
A good southerly, the prisoners get to clear their sinuses,while a strong easterly means the army clears their's....lol
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: KW on Jan 10, 2024, 05:53 PM
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 09, 2024, 05:39 PMNot sure whether I have told the story about Ziwi Peaks Rolleston factory.
Livers,Kidneys etc are boiled up,then cooled down and flattened.Then cut into dog biscuits.
The stink is horrendous.
Their factory is located between Rolleston Prison and Burnham Military camp.
A good southerly, the prisoners get to clear their sinuses,while a strong easterly means the army clears their's....lol

Ziwipeak is now $72 per kg.  I don't know who is paying that much for cat and dog food, but its certainly not ordinary New Zealanders.  I used to feed my dogs it, but stopped ages ago when the price of it became more than the price of eye fillet steak for myself.  
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Basil on Jan 10, 2024, 06:00 PM
Gosh I threw Tony a piece of Sirloin steak the other day as a treat that cost me $27 a kilo and thought that was extravagant. Only people with far more money than sense would spend $72 a kilo on dog food.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 10, 2024, 07:13 PM
Quote from: KW on Jan 10, 2024, 05:53 PMZiwipeak is now $72 per kg.  I don't know who is paying that much for cat and dog food, but its certainly not ordinary New Zealanders.  I used to feed my dogs it, but stopped ages ago when the price of it became more than the price of eye fillet steak for myself. 

Most of Ziwi Peak's products are exported.Never intended for ordinary Kiwis.
Tauranga factory could not keep up with demand,there fore the need for another factory [  Rolleston.]
An old article.Ziwi has since been sold for over $800 mil.2nd article says over $1bil.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/102977373/pet-food-maker-takes-on-the-world-expands-in-christchurch
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-pet-food-maker-ziwi-sold-offshore-in-deal-said-to-top-1-billion/LT6MPCTMWXCMTLHD7NIKEGRO4I/
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: KW on Jan 10, 2024, 07:15 PM
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 10, 2024, 07:13 PMMost of Ziwi Peak's products are exported.Never intended for ordinary Kiwis.
Tauranga factory could not keep up with demand,there fore the need for another factory [  Rolleston.]

Yup, like most of the good stuff we produce here, we can't afford to actually eat it ourselves.  
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: lorraina on Jan 10, 2024, 07:23 PM
Off course we can afford it.[if we want to].
 
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Basil on Jan 11, 2024, 08:52 AM
The humanization of pets is very much a growing worldwide trend, especially as the population ages people like to think of their pet as their fur baby and treat them as ostensibly a human child and lavish all sorts of love and treats on them.   Sure, there's a very tiny percentage of extremely wealthy people known as MINO's, (money is no object), that would be prepared to spend that sort of money per kilo on dog food but I would have thought that percentage would be incredibly small, maybe south of 1 in 100,000.  Maybe that still makes the total addressable market worldwide big enough but whatever you make of that argument the numbers don't lie and looking at Scales eps numbers over the last few years I remain very skeptical.  Maybe it's all going to be so much better going forward, or maybe not but I put a LOT of stock in the last 5 years track record, which in my opinion is not supportive of the current price.  Happy for others to run with this one and good luck to you.  I put Comvita in the same camp really.  Agri risks galore and a PE that's sky high and not supported by its track record.  I make no secret of the fact I don't like agri stocks with all the risks involved unless supported by a compelling valuation.
SFF on the unlisted market has traded on metrics commensurate with agri risks but I despise the wild west unlisted markets lax "rules" and the horrendous lack of liquidity is also very off-putting.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Jan 11, 2024, 09:44 AM
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 10, 2024, 07:13 PMMost of Ziwi Peak's products are exported.Never intended for ordinary Kiwis.
Tauranga factory could not keep up with demand,there fore the need for another factory [  Rolleston.]
An old article.Ziwi has since been sold for over $800 mil.2nd article says over $1bil.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/102977373/pet-food-maker-takes-on-the-world-expands-in-christchurch
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-pet-food-maker-ziwi-sold-offshore-in-deal-said-to-top-1-billion/LT6MPCTMWXCMTLHD7NIKEGRO4I/

$1.5 billion.

Great transaction for Mark Stewart and the departing owners.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Jan 11, 2024, 09:45 AM
Quote from: KW on Jan 10, 2024, 05:53 PMZiwipeak is now $72 per kg.  I don't know who is paying that much for cat and dog food, but its certainly not ordinary New Zealanders.  I used to feed my dogs it, but stopped ages ago when the price of it became more than the price of eye fillet steak for myself. 

Definitely pricey......

But as being dried, should only need about 20-25% of the volume comparing to feeding straight meat.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Jan 11, 2024, 10:18 AM
While petfood markets have hit some speedbumps currently (interest rates, inflation, consumer spending, China, return to the office), Meateor appears well placed to capitalise on long-term trends.

End of the day, while not having a branded product, manufacturers will always need protein/ingredients.

They've made a number of strategic moves in the market over recent years - JV with Alliance, buying into Shelby in the US, currently building a plant in Australia, and creation of 50% owned company in Europe.

They have moved vertically into the market, but also geographically and across different species (when they bought Shelby it added 80,000MT of sales and expect other proteins/products in Europe). So would see they have spread their risk to an extent.

From my understanding, this season has been a bit of a struggle for volumes/sales - as for lamb there is alot more supply out of Australia, many manufacturers had stock through Covid and are unwinding positions, US manufacturers sending less to China with changes in the Chinese market, and consumer moving away from more expensive high-meat inclusion petfoods to more economical options.

No idea about apples, but looks like logistics makes a reasonable profit, but helps with shipping/exports from the apple and petfood. But looks like protein/pet is where it is at for Scales, and where most of their focus is.

Hopefully their new plant in Oz and new EU venture should start to contribute FH 24.....

Basil - I think you'll find the MINO's or MIANO's (money is almost no object) is way way less than 1 in 100,000 when it comes to pets.



Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: KW on Jan 11, 2024, 01:04 PM
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Jan 11, 2024, 09:45 AMDefinitely pricey......

But as being dried, should only need about 20-25% of the volume comparing to feeding straight meat.

Just did a comparison, and the feeding guide for Ziwipeak (using their website calculator) is actually exactly the same amount by weight as what I currently feed my dog (25g of Orijen Small Breed biscuits).
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 15, 2024, 02:12 PM
All this talk of pet food and how much money in it has got SCL share price on a roll.

Be back over 4 bucks soon and then heading to where it's been before in 5 bucks plus

Horticulture cyclical ...is pet food a cyclical as well?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 15, 2024, 02:52 PM
All TA indicators say SCL is a STRONG BUY

https://www.investing.com/equities/scales-corporation-ltd-be-technical?cid=1096394
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Waltzing on Jan 15, 2024, 03:38 PM
Some pastel lines..

Dont know enough about NZ Horticultural sector and need some good coverage including WINE...

 
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 09:30 AM
Basil pointed out the other day -

Looking at the eps off Jarden's website for 2018 to 2022 we see eps as follows 0.20  0.32  0.15  0.19  0.14
Average that out to eliminate seasonal variations in earnings from one year to another and we get 20 cents eps a share

So average over 5 years was 20 cents. BlackPeter pulled out his spreadsheets and said average epsover last 10 years has been 26 cents

The median was 19 cents

Wonder what the 5 year CAGR was?

Which is more meaningful?

Jeez maths a big puzzle eh

Suppose you use the number that suits your argument

Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: BlackPeter on Jan 16, 2024, 09:56 AM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 09:30 AMBasil pointed out the other day -

Looking at the eps off Jarden's website for 2018 to 2022 we see eps as follows 0.20  0.32  0.15  0.19  0.14
Average that out to eliminate seasonal variations in earnings from one year to another and we get 20 cents eps a share

So average over 5 years was 20 cents. BlackPeter pulled out his spreadsheets and said average epsover last 10 years has been 26 cents

The median was 19 cents

Wonder what the 5 year CAGR was?

Which is more meaningful?

Jeez maths a big puzzle eh

Suppose you use the number that suits your argument



It appears you are both describing a cyclical currently sitting somewhere in the lower two quadrants of its business cycle.

Actually - this would augur well for anybody interested in not just increased earnings, but as well the chance for some capital gains, given that cyclicals in the lower quadrants tend to move upwards.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: BlackPeter on Jan 16, 2024, 10:11 AM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 09:30 AMBasil pointed out the other day -

Looking at the eps off Jarden's website for 2018 to 2022 we see eps as follows 0.20  0.32  0.15  0.19  0.14
Average that out to eliminate seasonal variations in earnings from one year to another and we get 20 cents eps a share

So average over 5 years was 20 cents. BlackPeter pulled out his spreadsheets and said average epsover last 10 years has been 26 cents

The median was 19 cents

Wonder what the 5 year CAGR was?

Which is more meaningful?

Jeez maths a big puzzle eh

Suppose you use the number that suits your argument



Ah yes, and then there is this "trust only the statitics you made up yourself" (Winston Churchill).

Scales EPS for 2019 was 84 cents (and yes, as in any other business it contains one-offs).
Wondering how Jarden is making up their numbers?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 12:21 PM
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 16, 2024, 09:56 AMIt appears you are both describing a cyclical currently sitting somewhere in the lower two quadrants of its business cycle.

Actually - this would augur well for anybody interested in not just increased earnings, but as well the chance for some capital gains, given that cyclicals in the lower quadrants tend to move upwards.


Is that a prediction BP
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: BlackPeter on Jan 16, 2024, 02:22 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 12:21 PMIs that a prediction BP

Just an observation. Why do you ask?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Basil on Jan 16, 2024, 03:04 PM
Jarden's numbers straight off their website.  They have no vested interest one way or the other.  Where are you making your numbers up from ?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: BlackPeter on Jan 16, 2024, 03:26 PM
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2024, 03:04 PMJarden's numbers straight off their website.  They have no vested interest one way or the other.  Where are you making your numbers up from ?

May I direct you to the relevant annual report and audited financials ...

https://scalescorporation.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2019-Annual-Report.pdf

Try page 46 (at the bottom, if you don't want to do the maths yourself :) ;

Better check your sources ... :P ;

Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 03:44 PM
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 16, 2024, 03:26 PMMay I direct you to the relevant annual report and audited financials ...

https://scalescorporation.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2019-Annual-Report.pdf

Try page 46 (at the bottom, if you don't want to do the maths yourself :) ;

Better check your sources ... :P ;



Gain on sale of Polarcold and Meateor NZ

Did they buy Meateor back or something?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Jan 16, 2024, 04:45 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 03:44 PMGain on sale of Polarcold and Meateor NZ

Did they buy Meateor back or something?

Went into a JV with Alliance in 2019 - https://www.alliance.co.nz/media/2262/alliance-group-acquires-interest-in-meateor-final.pdf

I wonder if they rue selling Polarcold?? Never really replaced it with anything. 
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Basil on Jan 16, 2024, 05:53 PM
Earnings since then have been pretty modest
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 07:25 PM
Out of curiosity dialled up Morningstar and pulled SCL EPS since 2015.....before abnormals

Suppose you could say they have a bit of cyclical nature to them .....after all the line is a bit wavy ....on reflection could have made the line more wavy if I changed the left axis scale

No worries ......that's the past ...I predict there will be a steady upward line for the next 9 years and then we could say earnings are actually cyclical ...on a 18 year cycle.(high to high)

Wonder how the top of the cycle will be ...I predict 48 cents on back of pet food activity


IMG_5621.jpeg
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Basil on Jan 16, 2024, 07:33 PM
That image does not inspire any confidence whatsoever.  Thanks for doing the work.  Worse trend than OCA and that's sets a VERY low bar.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Left Field on Jan 17, 2024, 09:48 AM
Great chart Winner...... I can see why Scales needed to diversify.

Maybe worth watching for the overdue uptrend.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Ferg on Jan 18, 2024, 11:04 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2024, 09:30 AMJeez maths a big puzzle eh

Suppose you use the number that suits your argument

Haha - aren't we all guilty of that?

Back to Scales - I haven't read any press releases etc. but I'm guessing apples would have taken a hit from the Cyclone last February...yes?  Do we know how much apples historically contributed to sales and/or EPS?  I'm guessing it will likely takes years to get the apple production back to where it was....so maybe this talk of diversification is more like EPS substitution and/or preservation?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Waltzing on Jan 19, 2024, 08:30 AM
Winner() will global warming over the next 10 to 20 years give NZ an advantage when it come to Horticutural export production?

Comments that are not directy related to the stock.
 
Compared to TRA will people buy cars before apples though...

Increase in EPS is required to pay DIV's without borrowing.

Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: kiwi2007 on Jan 19, 2024, 09:36 PM
I wish I'd never mentioned Scales now.

More respect goes to car dealers and loan lenders (that have added absolutely nothing to the value of NZ)  than good, honest, straightforward horticulturists in the NZ stock forums.
 
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Waltzing on Jan 19, 2024, 09:48 PM
Well think it was a good idea to highlight what is a great natural product but it does not seem to attract the investor attention perhaps it should...

It certainly subject to the weather and anything like earthquakes , tsunami, pests and human pollution...

did we miss anything else that is likely to destroy gods great creations?

EPS seems to be the problem for the pro investors here...

maybe they are not fruit lovers ...

could it not be perhaps one of the great future industries that the country could excel at?

Apple production was down in China this year .. and NZ apple production on the same page.

https://www.producereport.com/article/chinas-apple-production-set-fall-5-million-tons-202223

Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: kiwi2007 on Aug 28, 2024, 10:19 AM
Highlights - 6 months to 30 June 2024 (1H24)

o Underlying NPAT Attributable to Shareholders of $28.5 million (1H23:
$14.5 million), up 97%
o Reported NPAT of $38.1 million (1H23: $14.3 million), up 167%
o Horticulture returning towards pre-Cyclone performance levels
o Global Proteins' performance consistent with 1H23
o Logistics benefiting from higher volumes
o Execution of strategic growth transactions in both Horticulture and Global
Proteins

Diversified agribusiness group Scales Corporation Limited (NZX:SCL) today
reported its 1H24 results with all divisions delivering strong earnings.

Decent set of half year results. No shocks.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Waltzing on Aug 28, 2024, 10:31 AM
well posted .

Its the one we have been waiting for to see if there is a sector of the economy that is going to get GDP back moving up.

Along with all land based industries...

Stats for export trade for this next 6 months are the ones to watch...

big long consolidated base line on that chart..


Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Aug 28, 2024, 12:01 PM
They say " Global Proteins' performance consistent with 1H23"

That's a bit disappointing .......pet stuff was going to be the real growth engine.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: winner (n) on Aug 28, 2024, 12:26 PM
Slide 11 is interesting

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436965/attachment/425792/436965-425792.pdf

Global proteins ... from H122 to H124 (2 years) volumes up ~60% but EBITDA about the same

Something not right here
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Sideshow Bob on Aug 28, 2024, 01:14 PM
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 28, 2024, 12:26 PMSlide 11 is interesting

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436965/attachment/425792/436965-425792.pdf

Global proteins ... from H122 to H124 (2 years) volumes up ~60% but EBITDA about the same

Something not right here

Markets were strong during Covid, with plenty of demand, and good pricing. Manufacturers worried about supply chains, inventory, global shipping etc buying up.

More difficult post Covid, weaker demand and customers unwinding their stock positions. Meateor now got their plant in Australia, and other JV's, so probably accounts for the volume, but maybe these aren't performing so good yet?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: kiwi2007 on Aug 25, 2025, 10:27 AM
Highlights – 6 months to 30 June 2025 (1H25)

• Underlying NPATAS of $48.9 million (1H24: $28.5 million), up 72%
• Reported NPAT of $57.6 million (1H24: $38.1 million), up 51%
• Underlying EBITDA of $86.7m (1H24: $60.5m), up 43%
• All divisions successfully executing their respective growth strategies:
o Steady performance by the Global Proteins division
o Exceptional result by Horticulture
o Excellent result by Logistics
• Directors advise a further increase in FY25 Underlying NPATAS guidance to between $45.0m and $50.0m

Another set of good results from this great managemnt team.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Umpah on Sep 10, 2025, 06:15 PM
Big jump with SCL today 5.16 - 5.45 29c A good 5% market beginning to see the potential?
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Hectorplains on Sep 10, 2025, 07:43 PM
Quote from: Umpah on Sep 10, 2025, 06:15 PMBig jump with SCL today 5.16 - 5.45 29c A good 5% market beginning to see the potential?

SCL moves in fits because of its low liquidity.  Their trend line is good.  It looks slightly expensive to me but high growth expectations may justify that premium.
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Umpah on Sep 30, 2025, 06:27 PM
Another jump from 5.35 to 5.69 on the back of their doubling their holdings in their Australian JVs amongst other things dog foods you've got to look after man's best friend They are doing a good job of diversifying away from NZ horticulture and the vagaries of climatic events
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Umpah on Feb 19, 2026, 09:10 AM
Good market update today if anyone's interested increase of about 10% on NPAT
Title: Re: SCL - Scales
Post by: Left Field on Feb 25, 2026, 08:41 AM
Outstanding result..... well done holders

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/468113

Diversified agribusiness group Scales Corporation Limited (NZX:SCL) today reported its FY2025 full year results. Reported NPAT Attributable to Shareholders was $101.0 million (FY2024 (restated) : $30.3 million). Reported basic earnings per share for FY2025 were 70.7 cents per share
 (FY2024 (restated): 21.3 cents per share).
 
 Underlying NPAT Attributable to Shareholders was $61.8 million (FY2024 (restated): $34.1 million) and Underlying earnings per share for FY2025 were 43.3 cents per share (FY2024 (restated): 24.0 cents per share).
 
 • Group FY2025 financial results:
 o Underlying NPAT of $77.6 million, up 45 per cent (FY2024 (restated): $53.4 million)
 o Reported NPAT of $117.7 million, up 137 per cent (FY2024 (restated): $49.6 million)
 o Underlying EBITDA of $137.6 million, up 50 per cent (FY2024 (restated): $91.7 million)
 o Revenue of $899.9 million, up 54 per cent (FY2024: $584.6 million)

....."Accordingly, the Board is pleased to confirm the previously advised FY2026 guidance of Underlying Net Profit after Tax Attributable to Shareholders of between $50.0 million to $55.0 million, implying an Underlying Net Profit After Tax range of $67.0 million to $73.0 million and an Underlying EBITDA range of $129.0 million to $136.0 million."