Not wanting to upset any greenie red types ,but most folks are expecting /hoping for a change of government for the N Z .
And I think this will happen also. So the question I am pondering over is what the consequences could be for the business sector & the nzx in general .
I would say that farming & rural Industries will benefit along with the reits /property sector actually most things .
I would be interested in your opinions fellow Stocktalkers .
And also will the nzx get a lift out from Bear territory eventually thanks to a more politically business friendly Govt.
Here's hoping
well since the NZX has not been mentioned even once by the finance minister ? you would come think it does not exist of any of the parties in red and green...
But since some news articles today appear to show the true colors of some of the most prominent ministers..
Facts? dont let them get in the road of a good bit of bating..
Anything has got to be better for the NZX and business than this last lot ...
And perhaps some standards could be implemented for transaction reporting from Brokers.
The big issues for he NZX will be kick starting the economy with investments and some radical policies to attract business and investment.
Radical is required and has never ever been tried... and removing depreciation from investment asset categories isnt going to help either.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-on-the-campaign-september-8-what-you-missed-today/Q24DPBI2XFGKRMNKIRDNUWSMME/
Odds are shortening and possibly even we'll get another Labour govt ...momentum going their way ...might need Peters but sobeit
Will this be good for NZ share market?
My betting friend says the Aussie bookmakers have a National Led coalition as $1.15 favorites, but you have to vote to make this happen. Don't trust anything Winston says, he sold us down the river to the Devil 6 years ago. I have gone and done my bit to vote to get rid of the worst and most divisive Govt there has ever been in New Zealand. New Zealand is completely f****d if we get another 3 years of Labour...please vote to make sure this doesn't happen.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 07, 2023, 05:35 PMMy betting friend says the Aussie bookmakers have a National Led coalition as $1.15 favorites, but you have to vote to make this happen. Don't trust anything Winston says, he sold us down the river to the Devil 6 years ago. I have gone and done my bit to vote to get rid of the worst and most divisive Govt there has ever been in New Zealand. New Zealand is completely f****d if we get another 3 years of Labour...please vote to make sure this doesn't happen.
NZ Herald reckons, "a mere 31,000 votes could be the difference in National and Act getting there {into power} alone."
Election day may well bring some surprises/shocks. Interesting to see locally anyway, that a lot of people are voting early, including me. I have never done that before.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 07, 2023, 05:35 PMMy betting friend says the Aussie bookmakers have a National Led coalition as $1.15 favorites, but you have to vote to make this happen. Don't trust anything Winston says, he sold us down the river to the Devil 6 years ago. I have gone and done my bit to vote to get rid of the worst and most divisive Govt there has ever been in New Zealand. New Zealand is completely f****d if we get another 3 years of Labour...please vote to make sure this doesn't happen.
I have voted for both Labour and National in the past but agree with your views 100 percent. We need a change no doubt. I have never seen such a divided New Zealand.
They can't even get the voting packs out with days to the election. I wonder how many people have left the country and not voted because of it. No excuse. Had three years to prepare.
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 07, 2023, 10:06 PMI have voted for both Labour and National in the past but agree with your views 100 percent. We need a change no doubt. I have never seen such a divided New Zealand.
I admit I was fooled once, (never again), by the way Labour managed the initial part of Covid and thought she did a good job with that. Since then, it's clear the Labour Govt managed subsequent waves incredibly poorly, their lack of preparedness with RAT tests and Covid anti Viral's and the way they are allocated based on racist preferences to Maoir and pacific islanders is unforgiveable and is part of what sent the Auckland region into home detention for nearly 4 months.
The way the whole be kind mantra has been extended to criminals in their softly softy approach, expecting them to reciprocate in kind is schoolgirl naïve. She was once described in parliament as "a silly little girl", (I forget by who) but for me that sums her up very well. The amount of spin coming from her over the years was nauseating to say the least. Whether chippie is any better, look it's hard not to be, the bar is so incredibly low lol, but the Māori caucus is clearly determined to send us back into the dark ages of extreme separatism and the Greens will tax the wealth out of this country so these extremists with their radical communist and separatist agendas cannot be allowed to govern again.
Well, lets take a step back and look at the last 30 years in NZ.
Still 30 years ago the NZ education system was the envy of the world, and NZ had the lowest percentage of illiterate people in the OECD. Today more than 1/3rd of our students can't properly read or write when they leave school and overrall our students typically rank close to or at the bottom of international comparisons. Both right wing and left wing governments brought us there - none of them improved our education system, they both screwed it up - hand in hand.
National/ACT used to underfund the system (resulting in rotten schoolinfrastructure and leaving teachers) and Labour/Green by being too incompetent to fix the system and instead politicising it. Throwing money at teachers does not fix leaky buildings, neither does it fix lack of dscipline, lack of respect and a teaching approach without proper guidance for teachers.
Still 30 years ago it was no problem to find anywhere in NZ a GP if you needed one - and in case of an accident emergency departments did look after you without undue delay. These days you can consider yourself lucky to find a GP who is prepared to enroll you and give you an appointment in a handful of weeks - and the waiting times in emergency departments are often 6 hours plus. People are dying because they can't get access to proper medical treatment.
Both National governments and Labour governments did run our health system down, National/ACT by underfunding hospitals and care and Labour/Green by being too incompetent to fix the system. Instead of doing anything useful they created another two useless bureaucracies (a brown and a white variant :) ; Not sure, whether the new system could be made working, but no doubt National will dismantle it as soon as they get into power instead of fixing the system.
And actually - 30 years ago I found (coming from Europe) that NZ roads are not too bad. These days they are more a collection of potholes. Both National governments and Labour governments did run our infrastructure down, National/ACT by underfunding it and Labour/Green by being too incompetent to fix it. Apparantly Labour always first needs to install an expensive bureaucracy before they do anything useful, and until that could happen National is back and undues what Labour did without fixing the real problems.
No matter whether we will end up with a National / ACT / NZF government (though more likely) or a Labour / Green / Te Pati govenment (less likely, but possible), one thing will be sure - they will break their promises (they always do ...) - and they will keep to continue eroding our systems.
30 years ago our rivers and lakes have been clean - and both National/ACT as well as Labour/Green governments allowed their degradation. Try today to swim in one of our rivers ... and you have a good chance to get sick.
30 years ago we had clean fresh water coming out of our taps. Today it is basically treated sewage. Thanks to National/ACT and Labour /Green working together to allow our farmers to destroy our land, our water and our environment.
Maybe its time to stop this stupid game to always swap from the left to the right and than back to the left. Nothing is gained by it, money is wasted and our land goes down the gurgler.
I voted this time for common sense and a party in the centre ... they don't need to worry about stupid ideology, but they can focus on the issues.
Voted early as well, could be very interesting in my electorate.
To me looks to be more people about voting early than last time, Booth at the local supermarket that covers two electorates.
Not sure why act seems to be dropping, can't moving from them to Winstone???
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 07, 2023, 10:06 PMI have voted for both Labour and National in the past but agree with your views 100 percent. We need a change no doubt. I have never seen such a divided New Zealand.
I vill be voting vor the return of direct control by the monarchy. But not by the progeny of the gaffe prone Greek. No, I am talking about the return of Kaiser Wilhelm II
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_II,_German_Emperor
"Wilhelm enthusiastically promoted the arts and sciences, as well as public education and social welfare. He sponsored the Kaiser Wilhelm Society for the promotion of scientific research; it was funded by wealthy private donors and by the state and comprised a number of research institutes in both pure and applied sciences. The Prussian Academy of Sciences was unable to avoid the Kaiser's pressure and lost some of its autonomy when it was forced to incorporate new programs in engineering, and award new fellowships in engineering sciences as a result of a gift from the Kaiser in 1900."
"Wilhelm supported the modernisers as they tried to reform the Prussian system of secondary education, which was rigidly traditional, elitist, politically authoritarian, and unchanged by the progress in the natural sciences. As hereditary Protector of the Order of Saint John, he offered encouragement to the Christian order's attempts to place German medicine at the forefront of modern medical practice through its system of hospitals, nursing sisterhood and nursing schools, and nursing homes throughout the German Empire. Wilhelm continued as Protector of the Order even after 1918, as the position was in essence attached to the head of the House of Hohenzollern."
Respect for the arts and sciences, more emphasis on the stem subjects and the restoration of our health system. Zounds like a recipe vor zuccess to me. Now I just have to locate the Kaiser on von of those party lists......
RB
Quote from: Jay on Oct 08, 2023, 01:53 PMVoted early as well, could be very interesting in my electorate.
To me looks to be more people about voting early than last time, Booth at the local supermarket that covers two electorates.
Not sure why act seems to be dropping, can't moving from them to Winstone???
As National release more of their policies and start to firm up their election promises, they will draw some voters back from ACT. Likewise NZ First will be doing the same. More people are going to move within the Left or Right ecosystem than to move from Left to Right. Winston is carving out 5-6% of the Right's vote. If his traditional voters were Left based, they would have voted for him in 2020. The fact NZ First didnt even make it back to Parliament proves that his voter base were mostly center-right not left. Hopefully, he now realises this and won't do the dirty on them a second time.
We don't even know yet who's who in the new government but....
New Government doesn't exist yet, but business is happy with it
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/301000463/new-government-doesnt-exist-yet-but-business-is-happy-with-it
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Nov 02, 2023, 06:16 AMWe don't even know yet who's who in the new government but....
New Government doesn't exist yet, but business is happy with it
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/301000463/new-government-doesnt-exist-yet-but-business-is-happy-with-it
Because its not going to be Labour/Greens/ Maori Party. Hurrah!
Today the market will get a confirmation of government, and the recent uncertainty will be alleviated, markets like certainty. 10-year government bond yields will probably drop another 125 basis points, following on from the US market.
This will alleviate the pressure on REITs and continuing falling yield sentiment will allow them to slowly rise until end of fiscal year, in my opinion.
If the S&P 500 can hold above 4400 for any length of time, the recent low is in, and the 'Santa' rally will take hold and the recent drop from 4600 to 4100 will eventually be seen that's nothing more than a giant head fake.
A triumvirate of chaos ....
long may they rien...
some CNBC comentators such a Rick Santelli says higher bond Yields will make a come back as US debt climbs in the years to come...
Peter's holding the...chips. Haven't we been here before? (https://www.google.com/search?q=groundhog+day&sca_esv=579062694&rlz=1C1GCEU_enNZ992NZ992&tbm=vid&sxsrf=AM9HkKkGZdyRbNZ5zrrvcDf_BVgwN1ec2A:1698988219426&source=lnms&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwjuk6-qiKeCAxVId2wGHS0zCRIQ_AUoAnoECAQQBA&biw=1164&bih=501&dpr=1.1#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:e6f0c59a,vid:GncQtURdcE4,st:0)
I'm pretty relaxed about it. No question Peter's has a very strong dislike for all the separatist and divisive nonsense rammed down our throats by the bucket load by the worst and most divisive Govt in our history. I'm confident the three parties will find a pragmatic way to work together.
Luxon a good leader. Chatted with him a few times after AIR annual meetings. He impressed me.
He'll make a good leader to skipper us through the next (hopefully at least 6 years).
Lets hope so... maybe Peters will like JL...
How did Peters get on with JK?
Quote from: Basil on Nov 03, 2023, 06:45 PMI'm pretty relaxed about it. No question Peter's has a very strong dislike for all the separatist and divisive nonsense rammed down our throats by the bucket load by the worst and most divisive Govt in our history. I'm confident the three parties will find a pragmatic way to work together.
Luxon a good leader. Chatted with him a few times after AIR annual meetings. He impressed me and I don't impress easily.
He'll make a good leader to skipper us through the next (hopefully at least 6 years).
You are very sanguine. It must be Friday! Peters and stable government have not been commonly used in the same sentence. Given some of the causes he sidled up to on the trail...who knows what the piper will demand as payment. ACT too have an undercurrent of lunacy, gun nuts et al. It will be an impressive feat of leadership to bring that together, and a greater one yet to hold it so. Time will tell.
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 03, 2023, 06:58 PMLets hope so... maybe Peters will like JL...
How did Peters get on with JK?
[/quote)Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 03, 2023, 06:58 PMLets hope so... maybe Peters will like JL...
How did Peters get on with JK?
You got me stumped, Waltz. Who's JL? Can't be Lomu or Lennon (how bad is that 'new' Beatles track 😪).
sorry HP....
JL CL... Hes a Chris right? Chris Luxon...
Luxon... LUX like the soap?
is it really bad? oh dear ....
Haha oh, that makes more sense. Lux on - like the soap...indeed. The new sheriff in town, here to clean things up...or something like that.
Yeah, that Beatles track (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOjuqmZzul4&ab_channel=TheBeatles-Topic) ain't no Warm Gun or She said, she said.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 03, 2023, 07:00 PMYou are very sanguine. It must be Friday! Peters and stable government have not been commonly used in the same sentence. Given some of the causes he sidled up to on the trail...who knows what the piper will demand as payment. ACT too have an undercurrent of lunacy, gun nuts et al. It will be an impressive feat of leadership to bring that together, and a greater one yet to hold it so. Time will tell.
Yeap, sanguine about this indeed...there's enough else in the world going on to be worried about isn't there ? Besides mate, it's been a good week in the markets for a much needed change so the ol Beagle is more relaxed. Speaking of old dog's, Peter's is a very old one now. Put him out to pasture as the foreign minister so he can prance around the world stage smiling and palm pressing with other political figures in his twilight years, that'll keep him happy. That way he can pretend to himself he's achieved something in his political career other than the wine box enquiry ;D I'm pretty sure we can be confident he'll do a better job than Nania Mahuta.
I'm pretty sure we can be confident he'll do a better job than Nania Mahuta.
[/quote]
Hell yes!!
Quote from: Basil on Nov 03, 2023, 09:47 PMPut him out to pasture as the foreign minister so he can prance around the world stage smiling and palm pressing with other political figures in his twilight years, that'll keep him happy.
And make him Minister for Broadcasting....didn't he express an interest in this position to Jack Tame? ;)
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 05, 2023, 07:52 PMAnd make him Minister for Broadcasting....didn't he express an interest in this position to Jack Tame? ;)
anyone would be an improvement from willie jackson!
HP thats a CLASSIC!!!
"LUX ON" !!!!!
perfect .... or as the french say ...
parfait-----
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P11Bcpyw4g
dont forget to breath ...
Parfait or parfaite (m/f) from my distant memory of fourth form French. Anyway what's being suggested on this thread could hardly be described thus. Peters for Foreign Affairs and Broadcasting. Makes my pancreas shudder...even if it is in jest.
Winston Peters 😂
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/winston-peters-blames-delayed-negotiations-on-decision-supported-by-winston-peters/T2J6B2EUKJETNJEXXIDGAZXK5Q/
The new coalition agreements look fantastic news for democracy & business and all kiwis
Quote from: Auto Rower on Nov 24, 2023, 05:20 PMThe new coalition agreements look fantastic news for democracy & business and all kiwis
I see very little in it for business to be honest, outside of residential landlords & tobacco companies. The large reduction in planned government spending/headcount is going to be a drag on private business acting as suppliers of goods and services to impacted government entities, which makes up a sizable portion of NZs economy. On top of that they have worsened the tax situation for commercial property owners.
Basically all the reduction in government spending is going towards small tax cuts for individuals, and large tax cuts for landlords, while small & big business get less revenue from government related contracts and zero tax cuts.
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Nov 25, 2023, 03:04 PMand large tax cuts for landlords
LEK - have you got a source for that tax cut? My understanding is they were reinstating interest deductibility for landlords. We all know interest is a legitimate business expense so to call it a "tax cut" is IMO misleading.
Out of curiosity, has anyone seen any commentary regarding possible Aged Care policy coming out of this coalition agreement? I have looked but haven't seen anything. NZF was the only party pre-election to address this, so I hope Winston managed to achieve at least some level of agreement in terms of managing the current aged care crisis.
Quote from: Untamed on Nov 25, 2023, 04:13 PMOut of curiosity, has anyone seen any commentary regarding possible Aged Care policy coming out of this coalition agreement? I have looked but haven't seen anything. NZF was the only party pre-election to address this, so I hope Winston managed to achieve at least some level of agreement in terms of managing the current aged care crisis.
Yes, it was in the coalition agreement for NZ First.
Seniors
• Keep the superannuation age at 65.
• Amend the Building Act and the Resource Consent system to make it easier to build granny flats or other small structures up to 60sqm requiring only an engineer's report.
• Progress the review of the Retirement Villages Act.
• Upgrade the Super Gold Card and Veterans Card to maximise its potential benefit for all Super Gold Card and Veteran Card holders.
• Investigate the funding formula for new residential care beds.
• Engage openly and constructively with the aged-care sector.
• Undertake a select committee inquiry into aged care provision to include supporting people with early onset conditions and what asset thresholds are appropriate in 2023/24.
• Explore options to build on the Local Government Rates Rebate Scheme for Super Gold Card holders.
• Work on establishing bipartisan agreement to fund both care and dementia beds that New Zealand needs now and with a focus on the long term needs by 2040.
• Liaise with retirement village owners and occupiers to seek a mutually agreed way forward to safeguard the interests of the 50,000 plus New Zealanders living in retirement villages
Many thanks. Some positive things in there. Fingers crossed.
Quote from: KW on Nov 25, 2023, 04:38 PMYes, it was in the coalition agreement for NZ First.
Seniors
• Keep the superannuation age at 65.
• Amend the Building Act and the Resource Consent system to make it easier to build granny flats or other small structures up to 60sqm requiring only an engineer's report.
• Progress the review of the Retirement Villages Act.
• Upgrade the Super Gold Card and Veterans Card to maximise its potential benefit for all Super Gold Card and Veteran Card holders.
• Investigate the funding formula for new residential care beds.
• Engage openly and constructively with the aged-care sector.
• Undertake a select committee inquiry into aged care provision to include supporting people with early onset conditions and what asset thresholds are appropriate in 2023/24.
• Explore options to build on the Local Government Rates Rebate Scheme for Super Gold Card holders.
• Work on establishing bipartisan agreement to fund both care and dementia beds that New Zealand needs now and with a focus on the long term needs by 2040.
• Liaise with retirement village owners and occupiers to seek a mutually agreed way forward to safeguard the interests of the 50,000 plus New Zealanders living in retirement villages
The full details are here:
NZ First - https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2023-11/NZFirst%20Agreement%202.pdf
ACT - https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2023-11/National_ACT_Agreement.pdf
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 25, 2023, 03:37 PMLEK - have you got a source for that tax cut? My understanding is they were reinstating interest deductibility for landlords. We all know interest is a legitimate business expense so to call it a "tax cut" is IMO misleading.
Don't get me wrong, I as a landlord will personally benefit from the re-introduction of full interest deductibility on residential property, and agree that it is a legitimate business expense.
However regardless of that, it doesn't change the fact that individual taxpayers & landlords are the big winners from the incoming coalition government, while businesses either get nothing, or are worse off (less money from government contracts, removal of commercial building depreciation as a deduction).
As that number living in the villages goes up and there are whole new retirement mini suburbs going up in central north islands towns NZ first has got itself a voter base to leverage....
well no mass demostrations in wellington so far...
those 300 MB (men in black) havnt staged a suicidal attack on the incoming government yet...
QuoteThe Reserve Bank surprised markets and economists yesterday with a warning it could raise interest rates again early next year because of higher housing costs from record-high migration and a lack of new homes, and the stimulatory effects of tax cuts.
The National-ACT-NZ First Coalition has promised to further loosen migration settings, freeze infrastructure and housing investment plans while it repeals Three Waters and the RMA, and accelerates its tax cuts for landlords. All of these moves would amplify the inflationary effects of higher rents, rates and services costs rippling through the economy, as the RBNZ laid out in its forecasts.