Cameron not very positive.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/07/cameron-bagrie-warns-job-losses-on-the-way-thousands-more-could-end-up-on-benefit.html
YUP wonder if the young wokie donkies are now learning there might be something called an economy...
NZD down against the AUS again... tried to rally then...
AUS div payments will be up...
IS high net worth really that or just a huge asset bubble the reserve bank will battle over the next decade to control...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/132633483/damien-grant-the-pathway-to-freedom-from-a-narrowminded-petty-economic-backwater
Here is a Blue print for reducing Tax Payer and Rate payer costs when it comes to multi language production of information in a multi cultural country.
Get modern NZ , get modern and can we leave IWI in there HUT before NZ economy goes down the creek!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/iwi-flabbergasted-kaipara-mayor-craig-jepson-claimed-they-were-consulted-about-te-reo-exclusion/FUTHZFU72BCCXH5OBBUVK7OI64/
If you leave for any length of time under labour 2021 bright line amendments your a speculator and your home can be taxed.....
this is Kafka country and they dont want you leaving to make some real money!!!
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/coming_for_your_family_home
The heading of this 'Markets with Madison' says enough. She said in her opening it is the most downbeat she has heard business leaders.
Where's our mojo? Big business leaders upset about economy | nzherald.co.nz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trYnVZqMZGg
2 year in US above the 10... inflation data trending down?
2025 could be a kick off year ..
Its a Greek economy ... you know the Black eyed peas...
Its all Greek... i bet you did not know it .. but yes even surf music is in fact Rembitika Blues...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaI2IlHwmgQ
All Blacks' Rugby World Cup final loss a threat to economic optimism - ANZ
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/501371/all-blacks-rugby-world-cup-final-loss-a-threat-to-economic-optimism-anz
The reserve Bank has no idea what the state of the economy is ...
what a shocker ... 2 percent smaller economy than thought ... their data collection systems cant tell them the actual numbers ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/time-to-talk-official-cash-rate-cuts-not-hikes-kiwibank-economist/5GRJ6ORYNZEQTNOEPDUU53N744/
How is NZ going to kick start its economy.. that is deep in recession if the immigrant numbers are removed from the economy?
Can it be NZ needs to Drill Drill Drill... or is there nothing there...
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/black-gold-rush-in-guyana-is-the-world-really-ready-to-abandon-fossil-fuels-a-9489ea00-a062-42f9-a882-a9de8501fc06
Does the economy now have to rely on Tourism? and house price recovery? Student returns? What?
If this 2012 all over again?
The rock star economy with the Parity party....
Its now seems all a long time ago..
Many now have money invested overseas and is it time to remove the Tax on overseas shares in order for people to get a bit richer?
Time to join Australia and ditch the NZD the flightless bird...
Will the trade deal with India do the job. All eyes are now on Lux ON and his magic wand to whip the economy into shape.
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/new_zealanders_standard_of_living_in_freefall
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 15, 2023, 07:21 PMHow is NZ going to kick start its economy.. that is deep in recession if the immigrant numbers are removed from the economy?
Can it be NZ needs to Drill Drill Drill... or is there nothing there...
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/black-gold-rush-in-guyana-is-the-world-really-ready-to-abandon-fossil-fuels-a-9489ea00-a062-42f9-a882-a9de8501fc06
Does the economy now have to rely on Tourism? and house price recovery? Student returns? What?
If this 2012 all over again?
The rock star economy with the Parity party....
Its now seems all a long time ago..
Many now have money invested overseas and is it time to remove the Tax on overseas shares in order for people to get a bit richer?
Time to join Australia and ditch the NZD the flightless bird...
Will the trade deal with India do the job. All eyes are now on Lux ON and his magic wand to whip the economy into shape.
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/new_zealanders_standard_of_living_in_freefall
Any trade deal with India is far from a certainty, unlikely to be anytime soon and almost certain to exclude dairy (as Aust's does.) Key tried and failed to get one over the line. It'll be a good test for Luxon and McClay.
Ok well it could be a slow grind then... bit like the ukraine counter offensive...
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 15, 2023, 10:06 PMOk well it could be a slow grind then... bit like the ukraine counter offensive...
Better not too slow. Didn't they promise an FTA within this term?
But maybe they take a leaf out of the previous governments book about how to honour election promises?
Well the question is if the stats needed adjusting as highlighted by the Kiwi Bank numbers man can we actually take the official publication of information as being fit for purpose?
Is the Rerun of the Mother of all budgets coming in the new year?
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/not_since_mike_moore_have_new_zealanders
This is interesting:
"Willis drew attention to the former Government's Transport Investment Programme, which had $85b committed, well short of the $288b needed to deliver it."
Source: https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other/mini-budget-2023-finance-minister-nicola-willis-unveils-74-billion-in-cuts-and-savings-as-treasury-releases-hyefu/ar-AA1lLcP4
A $200 billion hole in Labour's transport plan...!
Shame on the media for not picking up on this earlier and shouting it from the rooftops like they did to an alleged budget hole several magnitudes smaller in the National pre-election budget. Secondly, this instantly disqualifies Labour, Hipkins and Robertson from commenting on anything fiscal-related given their credibility has been absolutely shredded. We knew it was bad but a $200b hole in one policy programme? You couldn't make this stuff up.
It is time to legislate fiscal prudence and what Governments can do with taxpayers money.
Where would it get 200 Billion from?
Borrow it and everything becomes pay as you go tolls for even walking on new pathways?
Gosh ...
can someone with an econmics back grounf please comment... its just that economics has some very big books when you go to do your studies and you can get stuck in the library for ever....
"Shame on the media for not picking up"
they were not being paid to write articles on economics ..... they got paid for other stuff... anything other stuff...
The idea from the previous government that INFRASTRUCT stuff can be funded in the BUDGET is a joke surely.....
This shows a complete lack of understanding of the fundementals of accounting and cost accounting.
But who needs accounting when the resrwve bank advertises for people with no financial maths experiance required.
And the modern generation thinks its in a depression apparently...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/20/is-the-us-in-a-silent-depression-the-tiktok-theory-explained.html
HOOTEN is asking the question, 25 percent cuts to public service!!!
That right 25!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nicola-willis-should-aim-for-25-per-cent-cuts-to-the-public-service-matthew-hooton/MTKNMUKHLBB7HKL5NA4EOYVVLU/
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 22, 2023, 05:48 AMHOOTEN is asking the question, 25 percent cuts to public service!!!
That right 25!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nicola-willis-should-aim-for-25-per-cent-cuts-to-the-public-service-matthew-hooton/MTKNMUKHLBB7HKL5NA4EOYVVLU/
Given the previous government more than doubled the communication staff and totally screwed up communication, I am sure we could cut them by more than 25% without even noticing. Cut them by 75% and maybe things start getting better.
75%!!!
if the labour / greens and other parties got wind of this sort of thinking they would be alarmed!! Very Alarmed!!
Didnt quite know where to post this....
https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/WELT-2024.pdf
Bit of reading for over the holidays..
Great post but will have to wait for a rain day ... good place to post it..
OCR rates are still high for all 2024 ... at least thats the call at the moment...
Red Sea action will see another inflationary hit on its way for NZ. So will the Reserve Bank need to further hike interest rates to halt the impacts of this 'imported inflation' and Luxon will have to say not our fault
Yes Winner all eyes will be on the next 2 to 3 QTR results from stats NZ and the American BEA in the US..
Does NZ have the systems in place to actually measure inflation as the last go at it did not seem to be very accurate.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 01, 2024, 11:55 AMYes Winner all eyes will be on the next 2 to 3 QTR results from stats NZ and the American BEA in the US..
Does NZ have the systems in place to actually measure inflation as the last go at it did not seem to be very accurate.
On paper they seem to do a decent job.
https://www.economy.com/new-zealand/consumer-price-index-cpi
Nice site !!!
https://www.economy.com/
"Costs in your home will go up"
from the article....
as Winner has stated inflationary hit...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/03/red-sea-houthi-trade-attacks-shipping-warships-danger/
Life at action stations...
Yes. Oil on its way up again.
That little stretch of water where the ships are having a spot of bother..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GKlKYQDDcQ
Hot money documentary a bit of laugh except is securisation back in a big way?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psGaxUBoiWo
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125917/reserve-bank-says-its-chief-economist-will-be-speaking-economic-developments-full
"Chief Economist Paul Conway will deliver a keynote speech at 9am, Tuesday, 30 January 2024 via webinar, to be hosted on the RBNZ website. A link to the livestream will be added to the events calendar a few days before the speech is delivered. The text will also be published.
About the speech
The speech will focus on how significant changes to the global economy since the COVID-19 pandemic have created new uncertainties and challenges for monetary policy. High quality research and data will be needed to understand these changes.
Investing in data that is more frequent and more accurate is critical for informing policy decisions that have implications for future economic wellbeing and prosperity. High-quality data is also necessary for effective research. Our research agenda at the Reserve Bank is based on findings from our recent five-year Review of the Formulation and Implementation of Monetary Policy and the need to deliver on our monetary policy Remit objective of low and stable inflation.
In this speech, Mr Conway will also make brief comments on domestic data developments since the November Monetary Policy Statement."
Intrest rate cuts in AUGUST....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125969/anz-economists-dont-believe-rbnz-will-give-warning-when-it-going-cut-official-cash
There are 25,000 extra people on welfare benefits than this time last year, while Labour gave out 285,000 work visas to immigrants. That's over half a billion dollars in extra welfare spending that we now cant spend on tax cuts or fixing potholed roads or doing surgeries.
Also a net 21,000 people left for Australia. The highest on record (normally its a net loss of about 3000 people). Unfortunately its not the unemployed dole bludgers leaving but our highly sought after professionals. Teachers, nurses, IT experts, police, corrections officers - just some of the occupations that have been poached by Australian govt agencies.
This is the kind of stuff they are all offering ....
screenshot_20240120_202643_facebook.jpg
Im sure plently here will have family and friends in AUS...
Pitty its not NZ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/gdp-q4-2023-the-us-economy-grew-at-a-3point3percent-pace-in-the-fourth-quarter.html
Well its looking pretty good in the US will NZ get a break on the inflation front this year?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/26/pce-inflation-december-2023-.html
WOOL !!! is treasury going to bring back the economic farm survey?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-strong-wool-us-consumers-interest-grows-research/EJZ44H2ADZDVTOSNCRJFDK44CQ/
With the US not in stagflation the 10 yr jumping no OCR cuts then this march...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/us-treasury-yields-ahead-of-key-jobs-report.html
What happens now that the command and control economy starts to spiral out of control slowly very slowly....
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/02/investing/chinese-stocks-fall-worst-week-in-years/index.html
Looks like the wellington officials have policies that dont work in rural areas and there isnt enough money to support even care takers for rural schools...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/80-principals-resign-from-northland-schools-in-six-years/XEJY44K6S5A4RMX5A5WR23JCLQ/
maybe in a small economy thats why they want to tax the rich...
US had even lower inflation!!! in december...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/-inflation-in-december-was-even-lower-than-first-reported-the-government-says.html
Is it time for a new approach to government and local body accounting models...
with some tighter controls over local body governance and finance....
The idea the local representatives cant move on issue of operations is simple no longer tenable...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-christopher-luxon-on-state-of-the-nation-as-government-considers-tightening-migration-settings/6NG36TUM7VHOXOYSDC72F7A52I/
NZ it appears can no longer support business where government funded organisations are oeprating in the market...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/newshub-closure-mike-mcroberts-sam-hayes-michael-morrah-speak-on-6pm-about-bombshell/TLTYUM3XMBCALM7L5FAGWWGSUM/
PM has No money for new toys ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350201248/humiliating-embarrassing-luxon-pushed-upgrade-military-gear
there goes the budget for the new Waka Drone boats...
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 05, 2024, 07:33 PMPM has No money for new toys ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350201248/humiliating-embarrassing-luxon-pushed-upgrade-military-gear
there goes the budget for the new Waka Drone boats...
I just can't stand the whinging of politicians and press about these clapped out Boeings turned into VIP transporters. Put the PM into one of our Hercules instead ... they have twice the capacity and he could take a much larger press team with him. Sure - they are a bit slower, but what difference does it make to Australia. Just start an hour earlier with the flight and provide a sleeping bag for the PM.
The Hercules is much more reliable and economical and I reccon our Chris would look much better arriving on time, in fatigues and in a real air force plane instead of appologizing again and again to foreign leaders for missing the boat (well, plane) ... again and again.
I suppose the in flight morning tea and lunch isnt suited to a wine and dine experiance?
Inflight Wi FI? where do you plug your latop in?
no windows ? not that windows ever do much anyway as your not looking at much ...
are there any trolly dollies?
All necessary amenities provided:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/80917161/digging-the-rugged-charm-of-hercules#:~:text=The%20loo%20is%20a%20bucket,to%20the%20nation's%20prime%20minister.
I guess he would be on the job, not on a leisure trip, wouldn't he?
... and windows? If he needs fresh air - just open the loading bay ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2ngdgzXBGo
Once your in the C Suiite your in a special job... no individual seat air con ...
cant see it ... its a no go really... imagine the official staff ... they might start reporting in sick when those trips come up...
sorry just remembered about my air air sickness...
" just open the loading bay ..."
is that with the parachute on?
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 06, 2024, 09:33 AMOnce your in the C Suiite your in a special job... no individual seat air con ...
cant see it ... its a no go really... imagine the official staff ... they might start reporting in sick when those trips come up...
sorry just remembered about my air air sickness...
Hmm - never got airsick on an Hercules (and yes, I did fly with some ...), however - I have been airsick on Boeings before (though never been on a 757).
right check your chute ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4haqEPqpeiY
havnt jump from one of these and only done 3 jumps all up , only one from 10,000...
Is it that the economy is actually structurally unbalanced going to finally stunt NZ growth and that the reserve bank understands NZ is like Icarus.
That is why they wanted a much higher T1 capital ratio for banks?
The government faces a Roger D moment?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/christopher-luxon-not-ruling-out-new-taxes-or-reducing-promised-tax-cuts-as-fiscal-warnings-grow-analysis-finds-39-billion-hole/72BNFCMZWFGMVF2YBAFQXXYQWU/
Building stuff ... in NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350222410/200b-problem-how-broken-new-zealand
The shape of books ... mostly rectangles ... squares not many though...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/willis-concedes-she-wont-be-able-to-get-the-books-back-in-shape-quickly/6SHD5ZI6IZA6FD7JT5XZVGHBXU/
More stuff from the lawyer in charge of the finance portfolio.....
Does she even know what state the banking technology is in? Lawyers as finance ministers.... is this as good as it gets?
Have they not got anyone with a business and economics degree and experiance in banking and infrastructure banking?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/budget-policy-statement-nicola-willis-talks-to-mike-hosking-about-the-state-of-the-governments-finances/AIF4SL254RF3BDCTHA747NLNDM/
Nothing new then or radical to transform the economy for the future which arrives everyday...bright and early
Ive posted this underr economy even though its an historic subject ... The water management of Machu Picchu...
Is NZ developing its cities and rural towns with anything llke the design infrastructure of this site :
https://ancientengrtech.wisc.edu/machu-picchu/machu-picchu-water-management/#:~:text=The%20infrastructure%20of%20Machu%20Picchu,the%20location%20of%20the%20city.
Can NZ afford to wait for another auckland flooding event ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/do-we-go-across-the-ditch-scarce-wellington-jobs-have-people-looking-elsewhere/AYRIDVZHSJDKDCWDQ73YHTF2AU/
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 05, 2024, 08:52 PMhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/do-we-go-across-the-ditch-scarce-wellington-jobs-have-people-looking-elsewhere/AYRIDVZHSJDKDCWDQ73YHTF2AU/
according to Dr. Google:
QuoteAt the last count in mid-2023 there were 63,117 full-time workers or equivalents (FTEs) in the public service - or one for every 83 New Zealanders. There was major growth during the last government - National had "capped" public servants at just under 50,000 during its time in government.
So - our public sector has been bloated by 13000 more people since the previous National government left. As far as I can see did this huge increase in workforce improve neither education, nor healthcare, nor administration, nor public safety - quite the contrary, most of these sectors deteriorated over the last 6 years.
While I understand that people always complain when they are cut loose - if they are so attached to their jobs, they probably should not have taken contractor position in the first place. Can't take the cherries (high incomes) and complain if the attached risks (low job security) materialize.
Lets cut the fat and return our government services back to a lean and fit administration it used to be, shall we?
I vote for better education, better health care and better public safety with the number of public servants we had under the last National government.
In the US 1 CUT or no CUTS...
and locally is this the state of the economy ..?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/downward-spiral-of-ruapehu-infrastructure-could-leave-tourists-out-in-the-cold/GEWMWZWNYFDGDCRIKQR42PVCSI/
Gloom ....
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/127213/pricing-intentions-nzier%E2%80%99s-quarterly-survey-are-falling-closer-long-run-average
SUPERCORE CPI ....
no cuts this year for the US?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/the-supercore-inflation-measure-shows-fed-may-have-a-real-problem-on-its-hands.html
Threats to the world markets ... but i think most people here have figured this out ages ago ....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/forget-ukraine-israel-risks-investors-wont-see-risks-2024/
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 14, 2024, 10:29 AMThreats to the world markets ... but i think most people here have figured this out ages ago ....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/forget-ukraine-israel-risks-investors-wont-see-risks-2024/
Nathan Rothschild is cited for saying "buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets", and he stated that in the year 1810!
A starting war (sound of cannons) is typically good for the bourse ... all sides still have money as well as credit and they will invest it happily into training soldiers, buying ammunition and weapons systems. On the other hand - ending a war (sounds of the trumpets) is less good for the bourse - at least if you did set on the wrong horse. One or both sides will be depleted of resources, currencies can (and will) crash, some debts are unlikely to be ever repaid.
But what the heck - the war is only just beginning, courtesy to Nethanyahu, the Ayatollahs, Putin, the dear leader and Xi - and judging these "Gentle-"men by their previous actions ... long might it last!
What an opportunity to buy :) - just be careful to put your money onto the right horse and dance close to the exits ...;
Discl: I hate war and despise the subjects forcing this next area of human misery upon us.
War discloses the worst sides of humanity.
Having said that, I don't think there is a lot we (as individuals) can do about it coming, and always better to use the tide instead of trying to fight it.
The problem is war in the 1800's was local ,,,,
war today effects markets globally and a war in the south pacific might mean your market gets hit so hard your entire portfolio get wacked...
Today is looking like a global fires breaking out....
WZ
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 15, 2024, 09:32 AMThe problem is war in the 1800's was local ,,,,
war today effects markets globally and a war in the south pacific might mean your market gets hit so hard your entire portfolio get wacked...
Today is looking like a global fires breaking out....
WZ
You are right ... wars in the 19th century have been much more local - whatever "local" meant for e.g. the Napoleonic Wars (all of Europe including his Russian adventure), the American Civil War (with France and the UK involved), the Paraguayan War (with strong European root causes), the Zulu War (against the British slave traders), and the Australian frontier wars (again, the British stealing land on the other side of the globe). Lets face it - in most cases "local" was at least Europe (the place to be in these times) plus one more continent.
But then, look at WWII. Pretty global, wasn't it? - and as I showed in a previous post, DOW Jones was in an uptrend from something like 1932 (i.e. before the war started) to something like 1965. WW2 resulted in some blibs (up and down), but no impact on the long term trend. No worries.
You are right but these blips can last a while and that is why thinking an invasion of TW by China would HIT the NZX and global market big time as CHIPS drive everything...
the speed at which news and money travels today is speed of communications...
the HIT will be much much faster..
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 15, 2024, 10:43 AMYou are right but these blips can last a while and that is why thinking an invasion of TW by China would HIT the NZX and global market big time as CHIPS drive everything...
the speed at which news and money travels today is speed of communications...
the HIT will be much much faster..
I think we are both right. Its just ... we do seem to think in different time windows :)
Talking about chips ... I hear that Taiwan Semiconductors just opened a new fab in Japan, and is building new fabs in the US (Arizona) as well as in Europe (Germany). Maybe somebody noticed that it might be a bit dangerous to have it all located in Taiwan?
And yes, Invasion into Taiwan would certainly stir the markets. On the other hand - many Taiwanese (I do know some) have links to NZ ... and we should not underestimate the impact of plenty of wealthy and entrepreneurial Taiwanese (with NZ citizenship) bringing their money and companies into the safe haven of NZ.
Actually - I am not convinced that the mid and long term effect on NZ would be negative at all (similar as WWII was quite positive for Switzerland despite everything around went up in the flames of WW2).
US has its new FAB investment scheme and we have nothing that can house much more than some diary and cheese warehouses...
and soon only a couple of WAKA's to cross COOK's Creek...
WZ
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 16, 2024, 06:54 AMUS has its new FAB investment scheme and we have nothing that can house much more than some diary and cheese warehouses...
and soon only a couple of WAKA's to cross COOK's Creek...
WZ
Small is beautiful - and being inconspicuous can be a life saver.
No, seriously - if NZ secures its place at the campfire of the world economy by providing high quality food and by harbouring wealthy and economically contributing refugees - nothing wrong with that.
... and hey, I do like cheese, even if NZ admittedly still has a long way to go to learn how to make not just lots of cheese, but how to make it good.
Not everybody needs a chip fab ...
Ok WAKA hydro foils to cross COOKS Ditch... electric...
Will effect markets or not.. apparently the US earnings session is going OK....
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/powell-cites-lack-of-progress-this-year-in-reaching-feds-inflation-goal.html
With NZ having a low national debt compared to europes big 2, france and europe why not sack a lot more government works and lower the tax rates?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/21/macron-drastic-miscalculation-on-france-national-debt/
Just how are those countries going to increase there military budgets...
NZ obviously cant afford a military .... if we have tax cuts .... its easy... fire more government servants and shut down whole ministries that dont sell or export anything....
put them all on the stock market except defence and police?
is there anything that needs to be a government department ... maybe keep the auditors generals office and automate the tax department...
there all done ...
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 21, 2024, 06:53 PMWith NZ having a low national debt compared to europes big 2, france and europe why not sack a lot more government works and lower the tax rates?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/21/macron-drastic-miscalculation-on-france-national-debt/
Just how are those countries going to increase there military budgets...
NZ obviously cant afford a military .... if we have tax cuts .... its easy... fire more government servants and shut down whole ministries that dont sell or export anything....
put them all on the stock market except defence and police?
is there anything that needs to be a government department ... maybe keep the auditors generals office and automate the tax department...
there all done ...
Well, I guess it all depends whether we want to fast track our country towards some Central American or Asian oligarchy with a small number of rich people exploiting an ever growing number of poor people.
If we do, then just lets privatise everything - I hear even publicly funded police and military are dispensable - just look at Sudan or Somalia. Nothing you can't leave as well in the hands of some privately funded militias and mafia organisations.
If however we want our country to stay a stable democracy where everybody gets a fair chance in life, then I would respectfully suggest that one can make a solid case for a good quality public health system, a good public education system, a good and fair public justice system and public social support on top of a public police and military.
Not saying that all these public systems are currently in NZ in the best shape they could be, and not saying that just throwing more money at them will necessarily improve them, but privatising them is in my view a recipe for disaster.
Cant see the public service surviving the coming age of robots....
This is what humans do to an eco system....
Some say its capa pa pa it ism.... but really it probably just the people who can get control of it .....
single dimensional accounting models only reflect one aspect of the economy. But computer models now allow multi dimensional but the creators and consumers of the accoutning models havnt caught up with technology yet.
if you privatise everything you would need an auditors office that is huge to control the out of control society...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/a-48m-boat-ran-aground-on-my-familys-island-in-the-hauraki-gulf-its-the-least-of-our-worries-sue-neureuter/V5KUPEIS4BGCLAKM6LCMPYK7CA/
nothing much left of the gulf now... looks like they system failed the ocean...
Can AI platforms in the future monitor the environment but will it be ignored? Just like climate change is ignored...
OFF TOPIC: Though the eco system is linked to the economy.
The state of eco system has a lightening rod in poetry too... The local writer who wrote about cook recently..
In Sam Neill doco about cook a local iwi representative on the east coast said we celebrate the death of cook...
The poem at the centre of controvesay might well be seen historically and cultuirally in university circles as simple an extension of juxta posed themes.
The wonders of western civilisation on the one hand and the death of the water around the GULF....
Look anscestors ... maths and sciences good.... western out of control greed... KILL COOK!!!
COOK in the poem may well simply be a representative of GREED = The dutch public company model and the private armies of the Dutch and English that accompanied it. Wellington in india for exmple made a lot of money apparently. Cook by contrast did not return to cash in..
sorry if this offends anyone...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/28/wef-president-we-havent-seen-this-kind-of-debt-since-the-napoleonic-wars.html
Someone is actually saying rate curs this year by the FED...
Is this the darkness before the sawn...
But here in NZ the GOVT hass lost support according to one poll...
This chart is interesting... the country is in recession while in 2019 the employment rate was lower..
IE is employment always the indicator of recession? maybe not .
Other factors can be at play...
Anyone for some Shakespeare... Now is the winter of our discontent.. https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/56973/speech-now-is-the-winter-of-our-discontent
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/political-roundup-discontent-and-gloom-dominate-nzs-political-mood/BJONTIXBCJHT7M4XLWZAWWUY7U/
They are planning on leaving... could the same happen here? Just saw a decorator up sticks with family and depart the ditch to aussi...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/01/opinions/trump-president-americans-emigrate-andelman/index.html
Quote from: Waltzing on May 02, 2024, 06:40 PMThey are planning on leaving... could the same happen here? Just saw a decorator up sticks with family and depart the ditch to aussi...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/01/opinions/trump-president-americans-emigrate-andelman/index.html
We had neighbours from California who survived the last Trump period here in NZ and returned under Biden back to the US. Who knows, they well might be back next year?
I guess the problem is - if all the decent Americans emigrate under Trump - than, what does this mean for the people who stay?
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 03, 2024, 09:31 AMWe had neighbours from California who survived the last Trump period here in NZ and returned under Biden back to the US. Who knows, they well might be back next year?
I guess the problem is - if all the decent Americans emigrate under Trump - than, what does this mean for the people who stay?
What a disgusting and hateful way to talk about the 74 million people who voted for Trump in 2020.
yes BP .... looks like the rest will leave for france!!!
reminds me of a book on the self here... "ill always have Paris"
Art Buchwald.... who des not have this book ...
"
Signed the petition to sell TVNZ....
how many government departments could be listed on the NZX....
something needs to be done to fire up public listed business in NZ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350269190/education-productivity-and-emissions-three-big-problems-nz-needs-fix-according
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/127641/brian-easton-wonders-whether-economy-another-long-stagnation-and-if-so-why
wasnt there wasnt supposed to be a take off after COVID?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bjzoh3iQJc
Quote from: Waltzing on May 08, 2024, 09:24 AMhttps://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/127641/brian-easton-wonders-whether-economy-another-long-stagnation-and-if-so-why
wasnt there wasnt supposed to be a take off after COVID?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bjzoh3iQJc
No worries - green shoots are apparently everywhere :) ;
https://www.wsj.com/finance/wall-street-banking-green-shoots-bf90f0d8
(probably paywalled)
Maybe its just this small rock collection in the South Pacific still harbouring sourpusses ...
Thank goodness BP ...
please some greens!!!!
now where is the https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxLWJ3iZLyg
Some really bad news coming from some parts of the Rural economy ..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/sheep-farmers-cutting-costs-looking-for-new-income-sources-as-prices-plummet/ILU6P7JY7VEGVBC5CHIHM5IYAA/
Its GRIM ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/warning-to-willis-treasurys-grim-cocktail-of-tax-hikes-spending-cuts-and-asset-sales-to-fix-books/MCMK6RM6YJAPPENQ5Z5XXG54E4/
Boy the kanga has a surplus? or is just fancy accounting ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/australias-budget-delivers-surplus-power-bill-and-student-debt-relief-39-a-week-tax-cuts/2I3JVBNGBRHADFGPHI52IV7IKM/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/record-migrations-why-thousands-are-ditching-new-zealand-for-australia/OG5P5P33VFAJ5NHQI3IPGCGU2Y/
More to come ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/
This could go under politics as well .. departmetn spend up apparently... lack of accounting people with banking loan experiance?
remember those applications for RBNZ? no financial experiance required or something? Tree Painting experiance maybe?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/pm-christopher-luxon-fronts-housing-announcement-amid-kainga-ora-review/WJJQFZKUTRAUXMHBICWJBK24W4/
Well the housing market due to peak again in 2029 ... no big reset to more afforbale housing?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/house-prices-wont-return-to-2021-peak-until-after-2029-forecaster-says/QHU7RDUPDBFEVAN6R2HLXYPEWU/
Now the debt is here ...
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/tt_eric_crampton
some business good news...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350289549/luminous-manawatu-ideas-triple-win-nz-hi-tech-awards
MONEY money money ... its all about the TAX.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/officials-urged-government-to-cut-cost-of-tax-scheme-and-delay-to-october-treasury-looked-at-18b-act-plan-for-tax-cuts/PBZG2XQYAZAIJFVEZEQR4GHQ24/
In a proper tax system, the income tax brackets would be adjusted annually, and fiscal drag would disappear.
However New Zealand governments of all colours and stripes have grown accustomed to the invisible yet steady lift in tax revenue.
Quote from: Henry Filth on May 31, 2024, 05:54 PMIn a proper tax system, the income tax brackets would be adjusted annually, and fiscal drag would disappear.
However New Zealand governments of all colours and stripes have grown accustomed to the invisible yet steady lift in tax revenue.
I agree 100%. Its 14 years since the 17.5% tax band topping out at $48,000 was adjusted. It's gone up a bit now, thankfully, but if inflation adjusted it should now be $68,000. (source RBNZ inflation calculator) Only a minor amount of progress was made yesterday towards what would be a fair and proper tax bracket adjustment. I guess something is better than nothing.
US jobs reports comes in 272.. not rate cuts anytime soon... not NZ economy but if rate stay higher in US yield on the 10 year is bouncing up today..
money goes where the yield is risk free?
money could drain farther or not arrive for the NZ markets...
who would want to invest in a country with low growth... hopefully NZ can show some green soon,,, somewhere..
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/07/jobs-report-may-2024-us-job-gains-totaled-272000-in-may.html
its cricket silly ...
investments by US ceo's.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/07/nadella-narayen-among-tech-ceos-investing-in-crickets-american-dream.html
inflation...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cost-of-living-reserve-bank-outlining-path-back-to-2-inflation/SUL7YSEFZRBFBG57QGZQ43JXN4/
China ... not powering along ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128297/us-canada-japan-all-report-tame-second-tier-data-china-releases-major-data-mostly
instability in markets ... france and the EU.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/19/coming-french-revolution-will-destroy-eu-and-starmer-dreams/
that curve again ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128336/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-inflation-was-more-driven-product-and-labour-shortages-other-countries
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 20, 2024, 09:07 AMinstability in markets ... france and the EU.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/19/coming-french-revolution-will-destroy-eu-and-starmer-dreams/
Hmm ... don't want to give the telegraph my personal details (i.e. didn't read the article) ... but, are you sure the opinion peace of a newspaper which continued to support the BREXIT lies and continues to support the Tories who destroyed the British economy is worthwhile reading anyway?
Once a liar, always a liar.
... (no idea who is who in UK news rooms). Expecting SPIEGEL+ to do some articles on german trade with China soon. Not expressing an FPV here. (First Person View).
More important than UK news papers to the locals
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-new-zealand-dodges-a-deeper-recession-with-growth-in-first-quarter/SFZCD7RG7FCELL3VKWPMS75IHM/
Looks like China has run into a cash crunch at local government level..
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/21/business/china-local-government-tax-crackdown-intl-hnk/index.html
has the scramble to tax everything an sundry...
Inflation could stay up for longer ?
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/business/red-sea-vessel-sunk-shipping-warning/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
six day working week ... right .. but who would have thought it would be this lot ..
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/greece-becomes-first-eu-country-to-introduce-a-six-day-working-week.html
not strictly this topic ... but when governments are buying bitcoin what does this tell us about when this technology starts to emerge as a standard part of the economy ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/08/germany-owns-2-billion-in-bitcoin-btc-its-freaking-out-investors.html
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 09, 2024, 12:37 PMnot strictly this topic ... but when governments are buying bitcoin what does this tell us about when this technology starts to emerge as a standard part of the economy ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/08/germany-owns-2-billion-in-bitcoin-btc-its-freaking-out-investors.html
That's not how I read this article ... The police seized Bitcoins which criminals made with illegal activities - and now the government is selling them in order to preserve the stash (and presumably return it at some stage to the victims).
I found no hint in this article that the (German) government was buying Bitcoins.
Might be different with North Korea (though I think they prefer stealing) or some of the Banana
Republics in the Americas
yes that is correct ... they did not BUY it ..
Have we seen the bottom. Time to start buying NZ shares again?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/521818/reserve-bank-s-changed-tone-light-at-the-end-of-tunnel-for-borrowers
Quote from: Shareguy on Jul 11, 2024, 08:58 AMHave we seen the bottom. Time to start buying NZ shares again?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/521818/reserve-bank-s-changed-tone-light-at-the-end-of-tunnel-for-borrowers
"Nobody rings a bell at the top or the bottom of a market", so I guess its everybody on their own.
As soon as more bodies buy than sell the market will change. Easy Peasy.
Sharon at ANZ says Heavy Traffic Indicator implies an ugly read for June quarter GDP
https://eu.watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Truckometer_southbound.pdf?data=DhZAW5pNirsgovBdALYwogjcrWZAB6DXgwQPV%2F%2FR4Y8c2U5HXzipnPnjShFNDgLRga0%2Fl4fXY0u7%2BiuK0FSiPf3f8DqlXlWyAWUBt2mmlUcmGX0Tmofdze32IzI0sbKpoQ7grH8WRz%2Bp07yEFnSGL0ssMhRcMcg9gr20N8cuIFkH2jfIridgw2QAN5IOzIuStIxpc2XE8CJ%2FjoMee%2B4Nx5Jf9AEfX0xdfcvLJyXNcfnDHUlaq8y7kxCiIjX5hHWERCycjgOXkF3xhiEJNrF03fpatIh8JtY4ZML7lITUpYlGHctMRV%2FDcqv3VSunDP9gQV3n6w7sDCv7vij0L5mQIbss9y55DW9%2F6hdiz5opZguZF51VAzLWoA0YQ78hy0uD%2B%2BY%2BHp8kgLcxACj7trGsJVaxuDC2gs7t8Dm3lqrZXnlelL5Jayg%2Fd3RI4pldRifHuB5FQjSVNJ%2FnOM73pSbwMQzSSHfhLSmZKdDy7qpPvpGjDVvZbswFIzJKfH%2BEeA%2BPL9STIagrShyYEz0IXPorognLv%2FMVyPqrbWjX1Bh7RogBm3UHCc3qnwo912fa%2Fqu%2FRpTWYUto%2B7SdifKzlf%2FVr9U7Qp02XRgSRB99wcG8hnaGF%2BWTV%2BO37ed5vqgEMnAP1wpTkbXHgkCKajJJQdrLlzi3fFYfznmAonsvOhMD8pvthMzWyrL1wYg89A%2FCw23uGi1mszHwuiPRvVQAe2q4jTn%2FtuAxLBhekoG0BJ0KlzuxGSf1ju6KlqpB3bZ0SOuQcSAuX21vBxBDwjPaL6iSRBw0XPDUCjHvGRUPjzuljEvYn04Xd2FRtHsQWqeZXbxEP9puohsX5OgYRPIIVzLQeA%3D%3D&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Truckometer_southbound.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D7b0c9cc982941e6d96e812b98bdd8e4abb2dc95828f2e2b8919ad2b03177633e%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAW3DTAMO2PNZSGZ3G%252F20240710%252Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20240710T233634Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 11, 2024, 11:41 AMSharon at ANZ says Heavy Traffic Indicator implies an ugly read for June quarter GDP
https://eu.watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Truckometer_southbound.pdf?data=DhZAW5pNirsgovBdALYwogjcrWZAB6DXgwQPV%2F%2FR4Y8c2U5HXzipnPnjShFNDgLRga0%2Fl4fXY0u7%2BiuK0FSiPf3f8DqlXlWyAWUBt2mmlUcmGX0Tmofdze32IzI0sbKpoQ7grH8WRz%2Bp07yEFnSGL0ssMhRcMcg9gr20N8cuIFkH2jfIridgw2QAN5IOzIuStIxpc2XE8CJ%2FjoMee%2B4Nx5Jf9AEfX0xdfcvLJyXNcfnDHUlaq8y7kxCiIjX5hHWERCycjgOXkF3xhiEJNrF03fpatIh8JtY4ZML7lITUpYlGHctMRV%2FDcqv3VSunDP9gQV3n6w7sDCv7vij0L5mQIbss9y55DW9%2F6hdiz5opZguZF51VAzLWoA0YQ78hy0uD%2B%2BY%2BHp8kgLcxACj7trGsJVaxuDC2gs7t8Dm3lqrZXnlelL5Jayg%2Fd3RI4pldRifHuB5FQjSVNJ%2FnOM73pSbwMQzSSHfhLSmZKdDy7qpPvpGjDVvZbswFIzJKfH%2BEeA%2BPL9STIagrShyYEz0IXPorognLv%2FMVyPqrbWjX1Bh7RogBm3UHCc3qnwo912fa%2Fqu%2FRpTWYUto%2B7SdifKzlf%2FVr9U7Qp02XRgSRB99wcG8hnaGF%2BWTV%2BO37ed5vqgEMnAP1wpTkbXHgkCKajJJQdrLlzi3fFYfznmAonsvOhMD8pvthMzWyrL1wYg89A%2FCw23uGi1mszHwuiPRvVQAe2q4jTn%2FtuAxLBhekoG0BJ0KlzuxGSf1ju6KlqpB3bZ0SOuQcSAuX21vBxBDwjPaL6iSRBw0XPDUCjHvGRUPjzuljEvYn04Xd2FRtHsQWqeZXbxEP9puohsX5OgYRPIIVzLQeA%3D%3D&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Truckometer_southbound.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D7b0c9cc982941e6d96e812b98bdd8e4abb2dc95828f2e2b8919ad2b03177633e%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAW3DTAMO2PNZSGZ3G%252F20240710%252Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20240710T233634Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost
Actually - a healthy shock might be the best what could happen to us. Better to have now bad numbers and somebody waking up Orr from his slumber, rather than waiting another 12 months until the economy is dead indeed.
August OCR meeting - roll on :) ;
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 11, 2024, 04:50 PMActually - a healthy shock might be the best what could happen to us. Better to have now bad numbers and somebody waking up Orr from his slumber, rather than waiting another 12 months until the economy is dead indeed.
August OCR meeting - roll on :) ;
Yes I'm picking November at the latest.
did it go far enough... time for another round after all they havnt lowered the head count in wellington by much ....
and the golden handshakes are there for the taking... had the inside chat messages on one recently.. nothing to see here honestly..
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128723/nation-reinvented-40-years-its-1984-victory-fourth-labour-government-still
only a matter of time... the telsa model maybe testing something shortly ... more to read on this...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/18/cars/china-baidu-apollo-go-robotaxi-anxiety-intl-hnk/index.html
no rice...
needs to be able to carry a surf board and still function....
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128793/we-await-start-cuts-official-cash-rate-david-hargreaves-questions-what-damage
Economics of flying in Russia ... they no longer use the breaks!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShuyKokbJ6w
wondered why those comp props are well bid at the moment and this might be why
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129057/david-hargreaves-previews-forthcoming-ocr-review-which-all-attention-revolves-around
ok inflation expectations back to normal?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/three-year-inflation-outlook-hits-record-low-in-new-york-fed-consumer-survey.html
higher unemployment to come... darkest hour ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129187/reserve-bank-has-started-long-awaited-interest-rate-cuts-says-pace-further-cuts-will
more of "its a stuff up "
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/official-cash-rate-cut-reserve-bank-surprises-pundits-with-decision/VRCLEAHARJDORFGI7X77GMCOIE/
heads will roll?
off with there heads ....
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 15, 2024, 11:16 AMmore of "its a stuff up "
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/official-cash-rate-cut-reserve-bank-surprises-pundits-with-decision/VRCLEAHARJDORFGI7X77GMCOIE/
heads will roll?
off with there heads ....
Well, if I watch a car race I don't judge the driver on whether he correctly was able to predict one round ahead in which way he will adjust the steering, I do judge him on whether he keeps the car on the course and whether he wins.
So - lets not listen to a bunch of absolutely useless economists whether RNZ correctly predicted what they will do in an at that time to everybody unknown future, but lets see how the manoeuvre plays out, shall we?
Lets face it - all economists are useless as far as predictions of the future are concerned (same as everybody else), but Olsen is not even entertaining.
No other country was thinking a rate cut in late 2025...
Year NAH... its worse than off with there heads.... close the departments and give it to AI....
will there even be car racing in the future..
off with there heads after this response from the .... what ever he is called...
the guy who put him there is now in the deep south... comrades my comrades im with you!!!
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129231/rbnz-governor-adrian-orr-rejects-u-turn-label-parliament-committee-suggests-lower
Yup , close it down .. AI it ...
save the tax payer a load of money ... privatise all public sector and list it all on the stock market..
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129184/david-hargreaves-says-it-might-be-everyones-best-interests-if-reserve-bank-finds
US jobs data revised 800 T down... fed chair about to speakie ...
wonder if US is going to cut 50 ?
well ...
"The nation's political pendulum swung right last October, when the most conservative government in decades got elected into power.
The center-right National Party reversed the progressive policies implemented by Ardern's Labour government that earned the country significant social cachet among liberals around the world.
National also enforced widespread staffing cuts in the public sector to save money, as well as made reductions in capital expenditure and investment in the private sector.
"We are in austerity, and as a result, the economy has been hit pretty hard," Eaqub said."
well according to some they merely changed some numbers ... but really not much of a change in staffing?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/economic-refugees-flee-from-new-zealand-as-cost-of-living-crisis-deepens.html
China from an economic view... other views on the internet from historic perspective paint the picture as more complex involving Destinies of the CCP taking back control from private industry...
therefore no matter what China should do the CPP cant afford to lose control to private industry...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129877/david-mahon-argues-chinese-government-needs-act-boldly-and-invest-its-people-and
Quote from: Waltzing on Sep 07, 2024, 12:14 PMNational also enforced widespread staffing cuts in the public sector to save money,
Remind me....how much did public sector staffing numbers increase under the previous administration? And the inherited Government surplus turned into how much of a deficit over those 6 years? Funny how Mr Eaqub and Mr Butts don't talk about that...
It was a JOKE!
yes they replaced whole departments with AI and a dummy seated at the front door.....
They cant replace to many people its VOTES...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130026/westpac-economists-have-changed-their-forecast-and-now-pick-reserve-bank-cut
The problem with the lovely left is they dont study how to count.
And for 60 years the people who did do the accounting in the country did it only in simple one dimension.
Simula created in the 1960's in the Nordic country's allowed complex modelling on computers for many sectors of the economies.
That power was used to kick start technology that powered them for decades to come.
The flightless kiwi is now well and truly grounded...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/watch-live-govt-books-in-worse-shape-than-expected-ministers-face-question-time-grilling/FGHTVEZIXNF6JMDHWATZ2M3FGY/
They just cant count let alone in more than one dimension.
If you have received the latest tax payer letters you will know that they visited the local government minister last week.
and the New government is fast at work trying to reform local government accounting reporting .
"Giving elected officials the ability to require information from council CEOs and officials. It is difficult to expect good governance when, unlike company directors, local councillors do not currently have statutory rights to demand information from the organisations they are supposed to be governing."
while there is lots of scope for economy improvement it appears NZ is in need a major economic reforms in public and private sectors..
Roger is having a seniors moment ... go roger!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/roger-douglas-disappointed-with-act-praises-nz-first-on-response-to-fiscal-challenges/R6WTJYVUH5GXRB5JUEMMRI3PZM/
oil just went 3.5 % up.. there will be some downward pressures on the market.
Policymakers ought to have a greater focus on "growing the economic pie", said Bloxham, and this requires a bold reform agenda and private sector support.
well its time people to see the light... after decades of hearing this stuff from wellington is it time to leave... again... of course it is as the war in europe will be wound down one way or another as Trump a Chump seems to have changed his mind about Ukraine. He now wants it as a debtor to the US and will likely take over its economy...
here in NZ its economy has finally come to a cross roads and with few natural resources except water and grass, some fish and trees... its output is limited...
tourism was the big one after the GFC.. what is the big one this time.. and the finance minister is a lawyer... go figure...
and the PM who is a CEO who seems to be lacking in Trumps bold leadership.. well who knows where it will take us all..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/new-zealand-economy-took-developed-worlds-biggest-hit-in-2024-hsbc/7VXRYHUWAVC3ZCYRE6KSYH5YSE/
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 25, 2025, 09:37 AMPolicymakers ought to have a greater focus on "growing the economic pie", said Bloxham, and this requires a bold reform agenda and private sector support.
well its time people to see the light... after decades of hearing this stuff from wellington is it time to leave... again... of course it is as the war in europe will be wound down one way or another as Trump a Chump seems to have changed his mind about Ukraine. He now wants it as a debtor to the US and will likely take over its economy...
here in NZ its economy has finally come to a cross roads and with few natural resources except water and grass, some fish and trees... its output is limited...
tourism was the big one after the GFC.. what is the big one this time.. and the finance minister is a lawyer... go figure...
and the PM who is a CEO who seems to be lacking in Trumps bold leadership.. well who knows where it will take us all..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/new-zealand-economy-took-developed-worlds-biggest-hit-in-2024-hsbc/7VXRYHUWAVC3ZCYRE6KSYH5YSE/
Not sure whether lack of resources is our problem. We do have more natural resources than Switzerland - and look where they are economically as well as culturally compared to us.
I don't think its lack of talent either. We do have plenty of gifted individuals who can operate in the top league of their peers, no matter whether we talk sport, science, politics or doing business.
What we are lacking is focus on what's important. I never managed to understand why we knight or dame people for playing golf (no matter how proficient), for playing rugby, for running some funny looking vessel they still call boat, or for having done a more or less mediocre job as PM or any other job they have been paid for to do anyway.
What we don't do is rewarding the qualities we need to excel as a country. We don't encourage and reward people to be outstanding in maths, science, engineering and medicine and we force our greatest talents in these areas to go somewhere else if they want to do what they love.
That's what we need to change - focus on teaching skills which are marketable and important for our society rather than focus on individual vain, and give these people afterwards a chance to work on their achieved level in New Zealand.
I would love to see the day when we reward the best brains for doing what they do best instead of the people who happened to be the best in transporting large eggs sized balls around a sport field, hitting a small plastic ball into a distant hole or just for doing something somebody had to do anyway.
well done you have highlighted the problem and good luck with changing that....
its built in to the KIWI mind set... and here we have security cover the whole area to catch it and catch it it does....
we even have PHD student doing the interviews of the locals in a white suit and clipboard! ... only joking.. the PHD mind control student from Sir Lanka refuses to talk to the white locals...
she says the average KIWI male is beyond her studies scope...
time to move on to world markets ...
as T tries to usher in a new economy lets turn our attention to China as it one NZ's biggest trading partners..
biggest?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ascPhiXcpss
RBNZ has the inside track on the FED....
and they spent up well.. could they have done the same with some ZOOM meetings with people scheduled more than once a month?
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/taxpayers_32k_orr_deal_as_rbnz_governor_jets_off_in_luxury
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 31, 2025, 11:55 AMRBNZ has the inside track on the FED....
and they spent up well.. could they have done the same with some ZOOM meetings with people scheduled more than once a month?
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/taxpayers_32k_orr_deal_as_rbnz_governor_jets_off_in_luxury
Quote"Hopefully the Governor's $14,025 business-class flights left him well-rested. If not, spending $972 per night on his hotel surely did."
"Seeing as RBNZ now has more than two and a half times more staff than it did in June 2018, let's hope the rest of the bank's employees show a bit more spending restraint than their head honcho."
Ouch. Pretty disgusting to watch another of our so called leaders to ask people to do what he says (tighten the belt) but not as he does (wasting tax payer money).
Pity our government has not even the balls to get rid of him. This would save some money, wouldn't it?
YES and can they can give him the money tree paintings that maybe hang in the halls outside his office or inside... the one of the tree... the myth...
all for the rights of local peoples but RBNZ needs to stick to the maths...
we have no idea how to get the economy going and we cant cut tax rates since we broke...
ok lets in the money people... but wait...
arnt there other places they can go and we welcome... without having to do a course in how to say hello using the local language...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/pm-christopher-luxon-to-announce-another-economic-growth-themed-policy-in-auckland/VA7SZ74WEJCGRFUTHVJVGCQE3U/
Government to cut entities...
no no ....
how many ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/public-service-commissioner-sir-brian-roche-considers-axing-government-entities/QGUNL5EPQZD6POOB6ANKQ6WVAE/
Will a trade war now cut NZ off from world trade markets and will green stuff get the dust bin as farmers in holland say no to more green costs in the EU...
the next 2 years till the MID terms is going to the long 2 years...
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 19, 2025, 06:51 PMWill a trade war now cut NZ off from world trade markets and will green stuff get the dust bin as farmers in holland say no to more green costs in the EU...
the next 2 years till the MID terms is going to the long 2 years...
Who knows, whether they will have still free and fair elections in two years?
No they wont have as apparently only Trump and AG can now decide what law in the US actually means...
The protests are starting in the states already.. imagine whole university camp shut down...
thousands a have apparently taken to the streets...
it might make the protests of the Vietnam war look kindergarten ..
remember this is the USA...
its not NZ... people dont protest here like they do in the US when things get going...
only the local natives protest here... they march and Haka they place..
well we havnt seen really big protest in the states for decades ...
and here it is... come on people what the heck? is history going to show the last 5 years is a huge stuff up and not just the laborred government that could not count....
did the reserve bank sink the good ship NZ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/132245/adrian-orrs-resignation-comes-reserve-bank-negotiates-funding-agreement-government
For those thinking that world economic growth will lift all boats maybe think again...
SP 500 looks like its rolling over and Jake Bro thinks its not looking good...well anyone following CNBC will be noticing that every time it rallies lately it then sells off...
NZ report from interest.co.nz
one of the best places to go to get a quick look at rates and costs..
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/132261/us-labour-market-starts-show-weak-signs-us-trade-hits-unwanted-record-canada-shines
Well where is the money going to come from to fund the big increase in defense NZ will have to shoulder....
Close departments!!! lots of them... will the IWI object and want to revolt back to waka's ....
NZ under labour will TAX EVERYTHING!!!
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/asia/trump-china-warships-asia-pacific-analysis-hnk-intl/index.html
and this is why the country performs badly...
data in a spreadsheet to run a country ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/significant-concerns-health-nz-was-using-a-single-excel-spreadsheet-to-track-28-billion-of-public-money/WADIE2J26JEDVCLXYL7HKTMNDE/
and here is another one of those billion dollar budget blow outs... or rather it got to roll out in ... somewhere in the south island where no one would notice it is a failure...
is this is result of the complete dumb ass's in wellington who are supposed to understand technology actually jst sitting on million dollar salaries and creating a nation going now where...
get a load of this one or was it auckland management that blew it....
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/revealed_150m_ticket_to_nowhere_on_the_national_ticketing_system
oh wait phew its only 146 million of 1.3 billion....
boy they could create software to control a new generation of stealth fighter for that 1.3 billion....
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 08, 2025, 01:12 PMand here is another one of those billion dollar budget blow outs... or rather it got to roll out in ... somewhere in the south island where no one would notice it is a failure...
is this is result of the complete dumb ass's in wellington who are supposed to understand technology actually jst sitting on million dollar salaries and creating a nation going now where...
get a load of this one or was it auckland management that blew it....
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/revealed_150m_ticket_to_nowhere_on_the_national_ticketing_system
oh wait phew its only 146 million of 1.3 billion....
boy they could create software to control a new generation of stealth fighter for that 1.3 billion....
True, we don't seem to have a good track record with big IT projects. Maybe they use too much no 8 wire instead of just copying from other countries what works.
Anybody been recently in Singapore? Their integrated ticketing system is amazing - and you can use it with any credit card to accurately determine and charge your per travel and per day costs. I am sure as well, it didn't cost a billion dollars either. But maybe its the Maori name, which makes our system so special and expensive?
yes im afraid you would be mad not to base your IT in places such as that...
back in the the 80's dutch engineers worked here on IT. Its how i got the start and was sent to Holland to scull boats, look at painting and see the centre of where capital markets started even if it included a few ponzi schemes...
Dutch engineers knew how to make stuff work linking up systems across the country using computers and phone lines...
amazing what they knew how to do.... today you have to use the internet to do that stuff... super fast but in those days they packed the data into tiny packets to speed it up....
maths i dont understand and never will...
The Economist discusses why New Zealanders are emigrating in record numbers – 129,000 kiwis left these shores last year (40% above the pre-pandemic average) resulting in a net loss of 47,000 citizens. Most Kiwi's are heading to Australia as they have a "free option" to live and work there .... 15% of the NZ population now live on the other side of the Tasman. Sadly, the famous Muldoon quote that kiwi expats to Australia "lift the IQ of both countries" no longer holds true ... the brain drain from NZ is real and Australia is the beneficiary. The John Key Governments aspiration was to "match Australia by 2025" yet we continue to go backwards and the joke in Wellington these days is that a more realistic goal may to "beat Fiji by 2050"....a fairly depressing article to read in the Economist (!)
So much Red courtesy to Dumbs tariff war.
But hurrah -
the Bear fonds (here Bear.AX - inverse to the ASX)
Screenshot 2025-04-01 133907.png
as well as the weapons manufacturers (here ARMR.AX, a fond composed out of defence technology stocks)
Screenshot 2025-04-01 133758.png
look pretty promising (BEAR passed the Golden Cross and ARMR never did fall under the MA50 since inception).
So far Dumb makes all the right moves to start WW3. Kill the economy (poor people make better soldiers), attack your friends, make sure your enemies are well positioned and last, not least - ensure there will be enough fuel to keep the war going.
Thanks Dumb!
oh dear...
does that mean these reports from the home front will be .....
the thing to whatch....TF hitting the country's exports...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-red-meat-exports-hit-11b-in-february-driven-by-us-and-eu-markets/OX3FKKGRFVCBPJEQYAK5OU4QIY/
Should NZ super charge its tourism?
looks like the US just lost its tourist destination hot spot...
https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20250328-the-people-boycotting-travel-to-the-us
Looks like Dumb and his team didn't even run the numbers before trying to break the world economy with their tariff threats.
Nobody knows, how expensive it will be for US consumers (and yes, I am sure, the rest of the world will pay for it as well) - but $6b tariffs (which always the consumer needs to pay) divided by 300m people is on the back of an envelope $2000 for every US consumer. This is a start. Obviously US suppkiers will react by increasing their prices (less competition) and our genius well might double the cost to the US consumers. Any benefits for job are unclear. Take people 10% of their income, and they are unlikely to buy more allowing job creation.
Here are two recent articles from the NY Times (paywalled, but the first 10 articles per month are free if you register):
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/us/politics/trump-car-tariffs-trade-strategy.html
Ah yes, and apart from the tremenduous costs to US consumers - the broken alliances will come as a fringe benefit for Putins lackey.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/us/politics/trump-tariffs-nato-allies.html
Lose - lose all over the place, this is what populists like Dumb are standing for.
Chumps but not Chump change....
Imagine if the NZX 50 went down 17 percent since feb....
well the NZX 50 is not EQU with the SP 500...
but...
The US has calculated TF's on deficits and they cant be used for TF's since smaller per capitia countries are likely to have a DF with the DIXIE where there are 300 million people....
its nuts stuff...
17 percent since feb... D CHUMP just crashed global trading markets...
this poor guy who trades the US is now down 7 million in his portfolios...
boy ...
Yep, one couldn't make this stuff up.
Rare to see economists agreeing, but there is consensus that tariffs damage the economy. It looks like that even the smart money agrees - just looking at any US index.
Democrates call this already now the "probably dumbest and most avoidable recession ever".
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/democrats-make-gop-pay-trump-tariffs-recession_n_67eea459e4b0c989cefdf544
Republicans can't explain the strategy either, but given that they are spineless creatures and anybody contradicting Trump gets fired, they say "You have to trust in the presidents guts".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajfrpaa783U
That's how the worlds largest and most powerful nation is run - not based on analysis, but based on the gut content of an angry and senile old man. Well, at least we will know where it comes from when it all turns to s**t.
Good article by interest... very interesting weeks ahead... real world history being made...
actually for once having china as a trading partner might work out ok , lets not forger the PM's visit to india...
In this type of world where numbers count having a boring CEO as PM might actually be ok...
lets face it no one in the labour party nor the greens can count...
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/132735/error-white-house%E2%80%99s-maths-may-have-overstated-reciprocal-tariffs-announced
GERMANY is about to pull its GOLD out of the US storage....
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 07, 2025, 03:54 PMGERMANY is about to pull its GOLD out of the US storage....
Let's hope its still there, shall we? I would not trust Dumb further than I can throw an elefant.
I've been thinking about this whole tariff sitch a bit more recently and I'm struggling to see how this broad ranging tariff strategy is going to bring jobs back. Who is going to put capital into a business case that requires these tariffs to work out when trump himself is super unreliable and most likely the next president will wind them back? Sure it will be a good tax grab but the cost to the economy will probably negate most if not all of it.
The question for us is how to play it? They add to recession risk so could lead to lower interest rates, but it will likely be inflationary (at least in the US) so higher rates? Might we see cheaper goods here in NZ as Chinese producers try to offload goods in friendlier places?
Quote from: Plata on Apr 07, 2025, 08:44 PMI've been thinking about this whole tariff sitch a bit more recently and I'm struggling to see how this broad ranging tariff strategy is going to bring jobs back. Who is going to put capital into a business case that requires these tariffs to work out when trump himself is super unreliable and most likely the next president will wind them back? Sure it will be a good tax grab but the cost to the economy will probably negate most if not all of it.
The question for us is how to play it? They add to recession risk so could lead to lower interest rates, but it will likely be inflationary (at least in the US) so higher rates? Might we see cheaper goods here in NZ as Chinese producers try to offload goods in friendlier places?
Good question. I guess the problem is that nobody can predict what happens tomorrow or next week.
Will an economically illiterate Trump surrounded by incompetent yes men push his delusioned plan to the very end? US did that before - and yes, they heard year after year from POTUS that the plan will work but it needs to get worse before it gets better. Sounds familiar? Started in 1930 and ended towards the end of WW 2 (1944). So - do we need to prepare for say 15 very painful years, a long term depression and the mother of all wars to end it?
Or can we hope for a friendly bomb blowing Dumb and his lackey's up next week and a more sensible US government moving back to evidence based policies?
Maybe the US democracy survives the current autocratic onslaught - and next year brings a landslide win for the Democrates, able to impeach Trump in 2027 and bring him for good behind bars, be it prison or a mental institution? I hear they have outstanding institutions in El Salvador. This would mean just say 3 years of suffering (allowing for due process).
Maybe it doesn't, Trump does a Mugabe 2 and reigns as autorcrat and disconnected from reality until age 110? Are 30 years enough to kill the human race?
Maybe a revolution in the US sweeps the reigning billionaires away, and the Americans are more successful than the French in turning a revolution into something which is good for the people (and not just the next strongman).
Maybe all countries join into a big Kumbaya session with Trump, praise his wisdom, remove some spelling mistakes in the existing trade framework and rename it to "the best trade framework ever courtesy to D. Dumb, the saviour of the world."
Impossible to predict - but obviously requiring quite different investment approaches.
So - what are you doing in times of high uncertainty?
Diversify.
Hold enough cash to be able to survive for at least several years without the need to touch your investments.
Invest into stuff people always need: Food, energy, basic transport and housing (no luxuries), health (again, no luxuries), defence.
Diversify.
I know I wrote that twice.
Diversify.
Think about correlations between yor investments and make sure enough of them are uncorrelated.
Anyway - just my 2 cents.
well since China makes all the toaster and kettles in the world... vacuum cleaners .. and some British firms have manufacturing in singapore...
your all good to go... and NZ makes its own bread and butter!!! Milk and Kiwi fruit...
when you get up for brekie tomorrow it will cost the same.. and oil us goinh down...
YOUR ALL SET!
there is nothing much you need from the US is there?
most cars here arnt US Made... Holland has the IP for all the chip making machines...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g2089vznzo
looks like DUMP just made a fortune from smashing the market and then walking it back as the bond market went south...
BUY said DUMP...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjoJtd3-vew
again.....
Trump the Chump overstepped his authority says a US court ... who would have thought?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/business/trump-tariffs-blocked-federal-court.html
Of course, the Chump will relitigate, as he always does. But if he loses as to be expected, the more interesting question wiil be: is this the good bye to his reciprocal tariffs, or is this just the next chapter of the constitutional crisis unfolding in the US?