I never had an Airline in my portfolio. Airline stocks are taking hit never before. What's you take on Air New Zealand? My main concern is its financial health. I can't ignore its high level of debt. I doubt they can achieve reasonable profit in 2023. After right issue the stock price has diluted. Highly appreciate your comments.
Customer service is letting them down. 6 hours plus on the phone. 3 - 5 working days by email. And in on a 13 hour flight i'm starving. Hope the wine lasts.
Fly them not buy them is good advice.
I have a speculative buy on watchlist at 30c, but I am horrified to think I might actually have to action it.
Screenshot 2022-06-26 164320.png
https://joi.pm-research.com/content/17/3/35#:~:text=The%20model%20indicates%20that%2C%20while,justified%20for%20especially%20risky%20stocks.
Quoted from the above link."The model indicates that, while investors should demand margins of safety that are typically 10% to 25% of the share price, larger margins are justified for especially risky stocks."
Quote from: Benji on Jun 26, 2022, 12:22 AMFly them not buy them is good advice.
Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink.
If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some :)
Quote from: nztx on Jun 27, 2022, 03:34 AMQuote from: Benji on Jun 26, 2022, 12:22 AMFly them not buy them is good advice.
Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink.
If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some :)
As ususal - timing matters. Airlines are generally terrible long term investments (unless you are THE government with unlimited deep pockets and the option to screw minority shareholders), but they can make amazing trades (well, lets say short term investments).
Trick is to buy when they are low (IMHO not yet) and to sell them before the next red ink shower starts, but latter is not always easy to predict. Always difficult to sell when investments are doing well, and this is the only right time.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 27, 2022, 09:26 AMQuote from: nztx on Jun 27, 2022, 03:34 AMQuote from: Benji on Jun 26, 2022, 12:22 AMFly them not buy them is good advice.
Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink.
If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some :)
As ususal - timing matters. Airlines are generally terrible long term investments (unless you are THE government with unlimited deep pockets and the option to screw minority shareholders), but they can make amazing trades (well, lets say short term investments).
Trick is to buy when they are low (IMHO not yet) and to sell them before the next red ink shower starts, but latter is not always easy to predict. Always difficult to sell when investments are doing well, and this is the only right time.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 27, 2022, 09:26 AMQuote from: nztx on Jun 27, 2022, 03:34 AMQuote from: Benji on Jun 26, 2022, 12:22 AMFly them not buy them is good advice.
Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink.
If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some :)
As ususal - timing matters. Airlines are generally terrible long term investments (unless you are THE government with unlimited deep pockets and the option to screw minority shareholders), but they can make amazing trades (well, lets say short term investments).
Trick is to buy when they are low (IMHO not yet) and to sell them before the next red ink shower starts, but latter is not always easy to predict. Always difficult to sell when investments are doing well, and this is the only right time.
Great idea but I not good at trading.
Learning TA but easier buy good companies and not worry.
So 55-56 cents finally after the gravity defying efforts through the capital raise period.
I like it here and think it can be $1 by 2025 for the patient holders.
Thoughts?
touched 60c today - are Christmas bookings on Robertson Air currently higher than expected ? ;)
May have get some Jacinda's unreliable 757 crates on some of the routes if this continues
or rapidly dust off some of the retired desert dwelling birds currently home to snakes & scorpions :)
I'd say 53/54 is the lows now. Might be able to retest but it should hold and as the months pass and the cashflow position improves then the share price should pick up next year as they stop losing $$.
Will be interesting to see how the share price reacts if the full year anticipated loss of $750m is achieved.
Hadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while
June report makes miserable reading
Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers
Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 08, 2022, 12:39 PMSurprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers
Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf
Surprised you haven't heard that best half of the country was in a strict lockdown for few months during F22
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 08, 2022, 12:39 PMHadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while
June report makes miserable reading
Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers
Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf
Trouble is CASK will be up a lot more than 29% !
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/analysts-forecasts-when-will-air-nz-return-to-profitability/7VDZJA44NT53AOTM47YNIU3Z2I/ When will AIR return to profit - Paywalled.
Most analysts predicting ~ break even for FY23, one notable dissention, expecting a loss of over $100m.
FY24 seems to be the year it will return to some profit if the analysts are to be believed.
No analyst is expecting a dividend in FY23, FY24, or FY25.
Target prices are mainly in the 60's.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/
Average analyst rating Underperform.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-final-frontier-auckland-to-new-york-non-stop/GHJ7WC64PLFT7E2ZFJTKUPHAY4/
Target air fares only seem to up
Just booked a trip to Melbourne, that was originally booked for Dec 20 so had a credit, new fare for easter 2023 about that plus about 50-60% - a bit hard to tell as our 2nd child has now moved to an adult fare!
Talk about scoring an "own goal" https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/475030/air-nz-inaugural-direct-new-york-flight-completes-return-journey
I guess that's what happens when you push the envelope right out to the edge in terms of aircraft's capability but who wants to fly non-stop from New York knowing there's a good chance they will be without their bags for days and can economy class passengers be certain they'll ever see their belongings again ?
Interesting that long aviation piece I posted the other day on the challenges of the return journey into the prevailing wind talked about limiting the number of passengers on board because of the need to carry extra fuel. Just as an exercise I jumped online with Air and looked at the price of an economy seat return to New York next June. Cheapest was about $1,100 there but nearly $1,500 return, (I guess because of the economics of flying return with reduced passengers).
The thing is, if you're going to sting people like this for the return leg I would have thought the the least they could do would be to ensure they're not leaving people stranded for days without their belongings, for goodness sake. I doubt any visiting Americans would be impressed having to make do for the first few days of their holiday here without their luggage. My rating D- (A lot of room for improvement). I have the same rating for their shares based on their "profitability" lol
Now the excuses and review starts https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealand-review-of-operation-after-bags-unloaded-on-flagship-new-york-route/QC2CWTCC4YTRFCDDIUBQR3ED3Q/
Soaring 8 percent on uncertainties, warnings and no guidence...I must be missing something?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/399195/379471.pdf
I think this has surprised the market a bit.
Maybe only 5x or so next years earnings, must be getting the hound interested.
But then, no dividends till 25 or 27 or whenever they said.
I still see it as an extremely risky situation and their balance sheet is very badly stretched.
Oil could easily go absolutely ballistic.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/air-new-zealand-new-york-direct-troubled-route-hits-more-issues-as-passengers-paid-to-offload/T6JYYDEABZDWAKH3QWUZCP26NQ/
$US1,500 + free hotel stay...pretty good way to extend your holiday if you ask me !
Them strong headwinds, eh. That about sums it all up for AIR.
A lot of elevated risks here still but seems better than 50/50 that they'll be paying a dividend again by mid 2024 which is at least 2 years ahead of the capital raising projection.
Worth accumulating if you have the risk appetite to hold it for 3-5 years.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 25, 2022, 10:03 PMhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/air-new-zealand-new-york-direct-troubled-route-hits-more-issues-as-passengers-paid-to-offload/T6JYYDEABZDWAKH3QWUZCP26NQ/
$US1,500 + free hotel stay...pretty good way to extend your holiday if you ask me !
They got off relatively lightly.
I was on a delta flight recently and the bidding got to USD$2,000 and a flight that evening.
Interesting process I hadn't seen for a while. Bidding started with a volunteer willing to swap to the evening flight. Took half an hour with no takers of the bids until it hit $2,000
I was quite surprised by this admission from Air Canada (referencing mask wearing) "Air Canada welcomes the removal of these restrictions, acknowledging that air travel is safe and that the measures were not justified by science. ."
And I'm reminded of the officious AirNZ bloke pushing the trolleys on my flight to LA to keep a mask on the whole flight. He was probably distracted by news that AirNZ was about to plummet to number 30 on world rankings of favorite airlines.
I went to a meeting in May.Turned round to see who was asking the question.Noted I was the only person wearing a mask,so took it off.Got Covid.
Have not attended any other meetings since then,still wear a mask while shopping,and no way will I travel in a bus or an aeroplane.
People I know are having ongoing health issues since they had Covid.
And every night when I say my prayers going to bed, I thank the PM for the free vacs, trying to keep me safe, and HGH,GNE,SPK, and Silver Fern Farms for their great divies.Amen.
I won't be flying anywhere anytime soon either, mask or no mask but I reckon anyone who does so without a mask, breathing in everyone else's exhaled air in a very tight confined space...you need your head looked at if you do that without a mask.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 30, 2022, 11:55 AMI won't be flying anywhere anytime soon either, mask or no mask but I reckon anyone who does so without a mask, breathing in everyone else's exhaled air in a very tight confined space...you need your head looked at if you do that without a mask.
I must need my head read Beagle - I got some of these a few weeks ago at 73 av 8)
Since then Qantas have upgraded guidance/ Singapore have just announced record profits today and the chunky AIR upgrade can't be far away
Hmmmmm
Quote from: Crackity on Nov 11, 2022, 02:43 PMI must need my head read Beagle - I got some of these a few weeks ago at 73 av 8)
Since then Qantas have upgraded guidance/ Singapore have just announced record profits today and the chunky AIR upgrade can't be far away
Hmmmmm
I've lost count of the number of airlines who've announced they're coming back to N.Z. in the last few weeks, latest was Air Canada in an even bigger and better way that before, (None other than Rob Fyfe on the board). As usual this industry which is riddled with giant ego's will swing towards over-capacity as a true cyclical always does.
Funnily enough it also crossed my mind to have a cheap and nasty punt on this momentum play given the uptrend but then I thought about the horribly stretched state of their balance sheet and came to my senses thinking to punt on this lame duck you'd have to be absolutely crackers 😜
Flew to the Gold Coast yesterday morning on a full Jet star who were $800 cheaper for our family.
Majority were not wearing masks and at Broadbeach just a few masks to be seen.
In the past I have done very well out of Air NZ. Sold out last lot before COVID hit. From time to time I have a look but have not been tempted. Such a risky business but also a lot to like.
Yesterday Greg Foran said this
But here's the joy of this business. What's it going to look like in a year's time when mortgage rates start to go from 2% to 6%; when more capacity's come back because Air Canada says instead of doing twice a week, why don't we move that to five or to seven times a week, and American Airlines want to put some more planes on?" he said.
Both economic and geopolitical factors would come into play, and everyone was still waiting to see what was happening with one of the world's largest China.
Thought I would have a look at what Craigs latest note says
But how long will it last?
AIR has not provided guidance for the full year, and has 'strongly cautioned' against extrapolating this good 1H over 2H. We have lifted our FY23 PBT forecast from -$126m to +$325m (1H $240m / 2H $85m). There remains a large degree of uncertainty as to how long the strong demand ('revenge travel') will last, particularly with the potential impacts of a weaker global economy, and so we think there remains a wide range of possible outcomes. We think there could be some upside risk in the medium-term if market supply is slow to return to pre-Covid levels. AIR has previously guided to some financial objectives for FY25 being EBITDA and NPAT close to FY19 levels. We don't think this long-term view has changed because of the current short-term strength. We do think a stronger FY23 result will help to improve Balance Sheet strength so we now assume an earlier resumption of dividends in FY25 of 5.0 cps.
Neutral rating remains.
Target price $73 cents
The snazzy new AIRplanes to be used domestically don't have engines
That'll save on the fuel bill ....and cut soen emissions
000air.JPG
People Falling out of love with AIR ?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/130478535/have-we-fallen-out-of-love-with-air-new-zealand?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+18+November+2022
"Cattle class" is exactly that no matter how you slice and dice it and it seems that phrase encapsulates their attitude to customer "service" as well.
They complainers should fly with airlines in the USA and then comment.
Crikey.... an upgrade.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/403747
Continued strong travel demand across the domestic and international networks, as well as a recent decline in jet fuel prices has accelerated the airline's financial recovery. As a result, Air New Zealand is today upgrading half year earnings guidance for the 2023 financial year.
The airline now expects earnings before other significant items and taxation for the first half of the financial year to be in the range of $295 million to $325 million. This compares to the previous guidance range provided on 21 September 2022 of $200 million to $275 million for the half year.
Quote from: 777 on Nov 18, 2022, 07:55 PMThey complainers should fly with airlines in the USA and then comment.
I recently flew Delta. Excellent. On time both ends. Could have nabbed US$2,000 in their bump seat auction.
analysts have rarely been optimistic enough with AIR...always worried about the variables which are real but always too conservative in assessing them.
balance sheet is not much worse than in 2019 before Covid hit and the current earnings tailwind should see the FY23 balance sheet back to where it was in 2019. All they did was hemorrhage about NZ$1.2b in losses over 24 months and then replace that with NZ$1.2b of new shareholder capital so instead of the shares being about $2.50 each there are 3 times as many, and they are c. 80 cents each.
imho the real value change here will come in FY24 when they continue to make decent money (probably not as much as FY23) and the prospects of dividends is then very close again - might even be at the FY 24 result...
Quote from: Arbroath on Dec 09, 2022, 12:04 PManalysts have rarely been optimistic enough with AIR...always worried about the variables which are real but always too conservative in assessing them.
balance sheet is not much worse than in 2019 before Covid hit and the current earnings tailwind should see the FY23 balance sheet back to where it was in 2019. All they did was hemorrhage about NZ$1.2b in losses over 24 months and then replace that with NZ$1.2b of new shareholder capital so instead of the shares being about $2.50 each there are 3 times as many, and they are c. 80 cents each.
imho the real value change here will come in FY24 when they continue to make decent money (probably not as much as FY23) and the prospects of dividends is then very close again - might even be at the FY 24 result...
Hmmm, I wouldn't be too quick to discount the threats to airline profitability that are still out there. China covid situation is a powder keg if you ask me - might turn out OK but might also unleash some pretty nasty new variants as the virus mutates through another billion or so infected people.
Global economy doesn't exactly scream optimism for travel industry right now either.
Then there is the situation in Ukraine which could also turn very nasty.
With respect to Air NZ itself, I think people underestimate how much goodwill it has destroyed with its behaviour during the pandemic. It is likely that a good portion of the current strong demand is just people who are using up their forced credits. And not surprisingly AIR has ramped up the prices for these captive customers as well. Let's see how things play out when some other airlines return and the pandemic credits run out.
Excellent post Poet. Huge new capacity coming to New Zealand, Emirates with their A380 and Air Canada with increased services compared to pre-pandemic level's just two of many examples.
The current modest fuel prices won't last in my opinion. World is currently doing okay demanding ~ 100m barrels a day of oil and Russian oil will get shipped in a way to beat the price controls but once China gets up and underway again and the US stops releasing their strategic petroleum reserve the market will be out of balance again and we all know what happens when demand exceeds supply.
Poet
I'm not discounting the threats at all...just saying the threats are almost always overstated with AIR, who apart from the Covid nightmare, have often outperformed in the last 10-15 years. Agree with you on the goodwill point but often people move on when there are not great alternatives. The key for AIR is their almost monopoly domestically so competition to get to NZ is fine as that usually means strong international travel and AIR capitalise when those visitors are in NZ.
I'll stay glass half-full and let's see where we're at in 12 months' time...
Amazing that how things are going this H1 profit could be 2nd highest ever ....only beaten when luxon had the benefit of super cheap fuel.
Big splurge of travel but will it last ?
Interesting article on what percentage of people intend never to travel again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/19/dont-want-to-travel-many-in-japan-say-theyll-never-travel-again.html
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2022, 12:40 PMBig splurge of travel but will it last ?
Interesting article on what percentage of people intend never to travel again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/19/dont-want-to-travel-many-in-japan-say-theyll-never-travel-again.html
It's not to late to join the momo plane - over a buck next year you know 8)
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 09, 2022, 02:08 PMAmazing that how things are going this H1 profit could be 2nd highest ever ....only beaten when luxon had the benefit of super cheap fuel.
This year is from gouging customers......
Quote from: Crackity on Dec 19, 2022, 02:35 PMIt's not to late to join the momo plane - over a buck next year you know 8)
Not sure mate. Chart starting to look a bit weak, broken down through the 30 day moving average. I think we need a one on one personal consultation with N.Z's leading momentum trader and as luck would have it...
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2022, 02:40 PMNot sure mate. Chart starting to look a bit weak, broken down through the 30 day moving average. I think we need a one on one personal consultation with N.Z's leading momentum trader and as luck would have it...
Good point. KW, what do you say?
What size plane do you fit this too...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/green-travel/130816398/this-giant-jet-engine-could-pave-the-way-for-an-era-of-lowcost-green-flying
I see that AIR has now rescheduled 2000 flights for next year. They say 90% will leave within sixty minutes of original schedule (that's probably just about as good as flights that haven't been rescheduled).
But on a more serious note, they say that 10% of these flights, presumably international, have been rescheduled for a different date - no mention of compensation for the inconvenienced passengers (extra accommodation, food, ground transport, extra days off work, missed activity bookings etc). AIR seems to think they will get away with this but in reality they are on the hook for damages under the Civil Aviation Act up to $8800 per pax whether they like it or not.
So let's say the average cost to pax is $1500 and 10% of 2000 planes are affected, say 100 pax per plane, I think AIR is looking at some serious compensation - circa $30m. And the extra damage to reputation
Do people know their rights though Poet or do most of them simply make a claim on their travel insurance policy for the extra costs ? (Not that I am defending AIR who are obviously price gouging at present and running their operation in whatever manner suits themselves best and to heck with the inconvenience and extra cost to passengers).
Quote from: Basil on Dec 22, 2022, 06:08 PMDo people know their rights though Poet or do most of them simply make a claim on their travel insurance policy for the extra costs ? (Not that I am defending AIR who are obviously price gouging at present and running their operation in whatever manner suits themselves best and to heck with the inconvenience and extra cost to passengers).
I'd imagine that travel insurance companies know the law and send claimants back to AIR. But I also imagine that many have higher excess on their travel insurance than their actual costs or don't have any insurance. Interestingly, it is actually a criminal offence under the Fair Trading Act Section 13 to:
"make a false or misleading representation concerning the existence, exclusion, or effect of any condition, warranty, guarantee, right, or remedy"
So if AIR tells a customer that they aren't entitled to compensation, then AIR is in breach of this provision
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300773325/lastminute-flight-cancellation-derails-dream-trip-15-years-in-the-making?cx_testId=12&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s
Yeah, some of this is beyond AIR's control but there is some A grade bullsh*t being pro offered too -
"Air New Zealand announced on December 22 that it had changed the flight times for almost 2000 international flights next year, leaving some scrambling to change connecting flights and accommodation.
The airline's chief customer and sales officer Leanne Geraghty said the changes were designed to "build flex and certainty into our network".
2000 international flight changes for 2023 made right at the arse end of 2022... in the name of flexibility and certainty?! Weasel words.
The World Just Doesn't Have Enough Planes as Travel Roars Back
Jefferies estimates there's an order backlog of 12,720 jets
Shortage means fares to remain elevated for foreseeable future
Bloomberg article today...
Oh my goodness its back to the future. Not again! https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bain-capital-to-seek-advice-on-virgin-australia-float-20230116-p5ccs2.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+17+January+2023
Hopefully AIR don't decide to take a stake again ::)
Quote from: Basil on Jan 17, 2023, 10:09 AMOh my goodness its back to the future. Not again! https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bain-capital-to-seek-advice-on-virgin-australia-float-20230116-p5ccs2.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+17+January+2023
Hopefully AIR don't decide to take a stake again ::)
And our Jayne still in pilots seat .....good sign
Jayne and Greg would make a good combo
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300789302/one-of-the-worlds-biggest-airlines-confirms-first-ever-service-to-auckland
Quote from: Basil on Jan 26, 2023, 05:00 PMhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300789302/one-of-the-worlds-biggest-airlines-confirms-first-ever-service-to-auckland
Good for Auckland Airport Ltd (AIL) but perhaps not so good for AIR
Oh dear. No food for koru business class. Supplier can't find labour.
From BusinessDesk - you want more you should subscribe.....
Jarden lifted its rating and 12-month target price on Air New Zealand and expects it to announce a full-year dividend in August, its first since pre-covid.It now rated the stock at overweight versus a prior view of neutral and the target price has been lifted by 18% to xxxxxx
Last bit was 90 cps - there youse go 8)
Quote from: Crackity on Feb 07, 2023, 11:48 PMFrom BusinessDesk - you want more you should subscribe.....
Jarden lifted its rating and 12-month target price on Air New Zealand and expects it to announce a full-year dividend in August, its first since pre-covid.It now rated the stock at overweight versus a prior view of neutral and the target price has been lifted by 18% to xxxxxx
Last bit was 90 cps - there youse go 8)
They werent due to pay a dividend for a few more years yet. Must be really scalping passengers.
Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 08, 2023, 06:54 AMThey werent due to pay a dividend for a few more years yet. Must be really scalping passengers.
All airlines are reaping windfall profits from pent up travel demand and passengers are willingly shelling out $$$ to get their travel fix after 3 years of lockdown.
Air NZ sp recovery lags that of Qantas and SIA for eg so plenty of upside yet to go.
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 08, 2023, 09:18 AMAll airlines are reaping windfall profits from pent up travel demand and passengers are willingly shelling out $$$ to get their travel fix after 3 years of lockdown.
Air NZ sp recovery lags that of Qantas and SIA for eg so plenty of upside yet to go.
Its election year with a govt majority owned airline with tax payers bailing it out again in the latest cap raise. Accounts will be worth looking at with a fine tooth comb.
Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 08, 2023, 06:54 AMThey werent due to pay a dividend for a few more years yet. Must be really scalping passengers.
They are, but not with my money :) ; Booked this winter a trip to Europe. Highest quote was from AIR, who basically tried to sell me code shared Air Singapore flights, just a bit more expensive than the original (which I booked).
Balance sheet repair meant that besides the dividend resuming, there was potential for share buy-backs.
Steele said the airline could finish the current financial year with about $1.1b of net debt, and gearing (including leases) of 35 per cent, well below the company's target range of 45-55 per cent.
Air NZ guidance is for an underlying interim profit of between $295m and $325m. Jarden forecasts $312m when the airline releases its six-month results on February 23.
NzHerald snippet today from behind the paywall.
Sp recovery well behind that of Qantas so the result should give the sp a nice boost.
Quote from: Crackity on Feb 10, 2023, 08:51 AMBalance sheet repair meant that besides the dividend resuming, there was potential for share buy-backs.
Steele said the airline could finish the current financial year with about $1.1b of net debt, and gearing (including leases) of 35 per cent, well below the company's target range of 45-55 per cent.
Air NZ guidance is for an underlying interim profit of between $295m and $325m. Jarden forecasts $312m when the airline releases its six-month results on February 23.
NzHerald snippet today from behind the paywall.
Ride that momentum and good for you mate. Just remember the Beagle's advice to ensure you are seated right next to the emergency exit door, know how to use it and have your parachute ready. Don't affix your seat belt so you can make a lightening quick escape as soon as severe turbulence strikes.
Yep - don't want to take your eye off the ball with this one 8)
TA and FA lining up at the mo
One thing to watch for is the reduction in credits (people who are owed a flight due to covid cancellations). Currently credits sit as a liability on the balance sheet, and are moving off that to income as people book flights. One of the reasons why AIRNZ can charge hefty prices at the moment is because customers have to spend their credits, and are therefore being held hostage to whatever the airline feels like charging because they already have your money. Once these credits have been used up, customers are not going to be as price insensitive when its real money coming out of their bank account, and they are free to shop around and choose other airlines.
Anecdotally, I just flew back from Auckland to Christchurch. A Jetstar flight left just before mine, and it was packed (we shared the same gate lounge). The Air NZ flight was practically empty, I had an entire row of seats to myself. So the winds may already be changing. Personally speaking, the chances of me paying Air NZ $430 for a flight to Auckland when I can fly Jetstar for under $200 is NIL.
Quote from: KW on Feb 10, 2023, 11:45 AMOne thing to watch for is the reduction in credits (people who are owed a flight due to covid cancellations). Currently credits sit as a liability on the balance sheet, and are moving off that to income as people book flights. One of the reasons why AIRNZ can charge hefty prices at the moment is because customers have to spend their credits, and are therefore being held hostage to whatever the airline feels like charging because they already have your money. Once these credits have been used up, customers are not going to be as price insensitive when its real money coming out of their bank account, and they are free to shop around and choose other airlines.
Anecdotally, I just flew back from Auckland to Christchurch. A Jetstar flight left just before mine, and it was packed (we shared the same gate lounge). The Air NZ flight was practically empty, I had an entire row of seats to myself. So the winds may already be changing. Personally speaking, the chances of me paying Air NZ $430 for a flight to Auckland when I can fly Jetstar for under $200 is NIL.
You are spot on with that analysis KW. I think AIR is seriously underestimating the reputational and loyalty damage that it is suffering due to its opportunist behaviour. People know when they are being tucked, and they often have long memories.
Quote from: Poet on Feb 10, 2023, 04:50 PMYou are spot on with that analysis KW. I think AIR is seriously underestimating the reputational and loyalty damage that it is suffering due to its opportunist behaviour. People know when they are being tucked, and they often have long memories.
Not gonna be an AIR shareholder again Poet?
Quote from: Crackity on Feb 11, 2023, 02:36 AMNot gonna be an AIR shareholder again Poet?
No, it's not for me atm - I'm really not a fan of the way they are being run and I think this will start to show in the bottom line at some stage. For another example, having your call centre phones repeating the well-worn message that you are experiencing higher than usual call volumes for three years running starts to wear a bit thin with your customers. Not saying there isn't money to be made by traders though but that's not in my skill set so I'll stay away.
Good that Covid numbers are coming down in N.Z. under 10,000 per week now but the idea of being shoehorned into a tiny space with strangers right up inside your personal space and breathing everyone else's exhaled air is still very unappealing. Add in egregious pricing and even if you can get a half reasonable fare with Jetstar, their truly appalling service and extremely cramped seats...frankly if I can't drive somewhere in my own car I'm not going. Wonder how many others are still feeling this way?
I still think AIR's balance sheet is in very poor shape.
I just took a quick squiz at prices for CHCH to Bangkok. $1500 return on Jetstar (CHCH to MEL, MEL to BKK). Air NZ was $2,900 return (CHC to AKL, AKL to Singapore, SIN to BKK). People are going to figure this stuff out.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 11, 2023, 10:08 AMGood that Covid numbers are coming down in N.Z. under 10,000 per week now but the idea of being shoehorned into a tiny space with strangers right up inside your personal space and breathing everyone else's exhaled air is still very unappealing. Add in egregious pricing and even if you can get a half reasonable fare with Jetstar, their truly appalling service and extremely cramped seats...frankly if I can't drive somewhere in my own car I'm not going. Wonder how many others are still feeling this way?
I still think AIR's balance sheet is in very poor shape.
I just took 2 flights, and spent every night for a week in crowded restaurants breathing in the air of complete strangers, all while the most transmissable covid variant ever was circulating, and still didnt manage to catch Covid LOL. You'll be fine Basil, and if not, Jacinda finally gave you permission to get the anti-virals.
Over 22 years ago we booked via a travel agent flights to Sydney and back.
Sister in law got the date of the wedding wrong.
Air NZ charged me a fortune to change our booking.[ it was months ahead of our flights ]
Never used them again.
Have used Emirates,Qantas and Jetstar .
All given good service.
Quote from: KW on Feb 11, 2023, 12:35 PMI just took a quick squiz at prices for CHCH to Bangkok. $1500 return on Jetstar (CHCH to MEL, MEL to BKK). Air NZ was $2,900 return (CHC to AKL, AKL to Singapore, SIN to BKK). People are going to figure this stuff out.
Not correct.
Friends just booked to holiday in Thailand - they paid $1,600 with Air NZ stopover Singapore.
Quote from: KW on Feb 11, 2023, 12:39 PMI just took 2 flights, and spent every night for a week in crowded restaurants breathing in the air of complete strangers, all while the most transmissable covid variant ever was circulating, and still didnt manage to catch Covid LOL. You'll be fine Basil, and if not, Jacinda finally gave you permission to get the anti-virals.
Good news about the anti virals. Have you got a link to share to that ? Every site I look at still has the old race-based eligibility criteria.
Interesting article in AFR today - an excerpt...
A window has opened for Virgin Australia to steal Qantas' "disillusioned and newly distrusting and disaffected customers" as its chief Alan Joyce plays an increasingly significant role in the brand's decline, according to Roy Morgan.
Qantas chief Alan Joyce had played a large role in the rising customer distrust, Ms Levine said. Bloomberg
Qantas had plunged from being the nation's ninth most trusted brand to 40th in the December quarter, the polling agency said earlier this week. And, in a webinar on Friday, Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine called it the most "dramatic fall from grace" it had recorded "without a singular crisis".
The airline was hit with "new levels of distrust", driven by perceptions it was not customer-focused, provided poor service, was a bad employer and a mix of Qantas "ripping off customers" with high fares, she said.
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 11, 2023, 02:06 PMNot correct.
Friends just booked to holiday in Thailand - they paid $1,600 with Air NZ stopover Singapore.
Well, thats what the Air NZ website told me today.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 11, 2023, 02:14 PMGood news about the anti virals. Have you got a link to share to that ? Every site I look at still has the old race-based eligibility criteria.
I just checked, and you may be right. I thought I heard that they lowered the age to 60 (and the age to 40 if you were Maori). Maybe not. I might have been confused with the eligibility for boosters lol. You might have to fake a couple of co-morbidities.
Quote from: Poet on Feb 11, 2023, 03:30 PMInteresting article in AFR today - an excerpt...
A window has opened for Virgin Australia to steal Qantas' "disillusioned and newly distrusting and disaffected customers" as its chief Alan Joyce plays an increasingly significant role in the brand's decline, according to Roy Morgan.
Qantas chief Alan Joyce had played a large role in the rising customer distrust, Ms Levine said. Bloomberg
Qantas had plunged from being the nation's ninth most trusted brand to 40th in the December quarter, the polling agency said earlier this week. And, in a webinar on Friday, Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine called it the most "dramatic fall from grace" it had recorded "without a singular crisis".
The airline was hit with "new levels of distrust", driven by perceptions it was not customer-focused, provided poor service, was a bad employer and a mix of Qantas "ripping off customers" with high fares, she said.
NZ and Australia need EU style rules that make airlines refund fares paid in full, and not just take your money and issue credits. That way they would then be competing for customers rather than ripping them off. Apparently over 460,000 customers still with credits to use. Then of course they just pocket the money come January 2024 and customers lose the lot.
Quote from: KW on Feb 11, 2023, 12:35 PMI just took a quick squiz at prices for CHCH to Bangkok. $1500 return on Jetstar (CHCH to MEL, MEL to BKK). Air NZ was $2,900 return (CHC to AKL, AKL to Singapore, SIN to BKK). People are going to figure this stuff out.
Quote from: KW on Feb 11, 2023, 04:32 PMWell, thats what the Air NZ website told me today.
For the record, I went to Jetstar website to check and what you have written (ChCh to Bangkok return for $1,500) does not seem to exist.
Maybe you can show where you got the infor as I know several people who would be happy to book that trip at that price to fly in the next few weeks.
Guess it comes down to when you are looking to book the flights. Obviously the closer the date, the more expensive as the airline sells out of seats. Same as hotels.
I use webjet myself as a quick guide for fare comparisons. Then I book directly with the chosen airline based on dates, flight time & convenience and fares.
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 11, 2023, 05:42 PMFor the record, I went to Jetstar website to check and what you have written (ChCh to Bangkok return for $1,500) does not seem to exist.
Maybe you can show where you got the infor as I know several people who would be happy to book that trip at that price to fly in the next few weeks.
KW, any update re the $1,500 airfare to Bangkok?
I have a couple of people genuinely interested in booking the flights at that price.
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 13, 2023, 12:57 PMKW, any update re the $1,500 airfare to Bangkok?
I have a couple of people genuinely interested in booking the flights at that price.
I've booked WN to Bankok for late May, the AirNZ prices were exorbitant and three hops; my surprise was finding Qantas, two hops and much cheaper at $6,790 for four adults return. I wouldn't fly Jetsar international even if it was the only carrier.
Quote from: Buzz on Feb 13, 2023, 01:50 PMI've booked WN to Bankok for late May, the AirNZ prices were exorbitant and three hops; my surprise was finding Qantas, two hops and much cheaper at $6,790 for four adults return. I wouldn't fly Jetsar international even if it was the only carrier.
Eh - I just checked on Air NZ website and the fare is $1560 for Air NZ vs $1697 for Qantas.
Cheaper rather than exorbitant!
Are you using the right website?
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 13, 2023, 04:16 PMEh - I just checked on Air NZ website and the fare is $1560 for Air NZ vs $1697 for Qantas.
Cheaper rather than exorbitant!
Are you using the right website?
Maybe AirNZ reduced their prices since I booked a while ago. They were significantly more expensive than Qantas at the time I booked. Are they still three hops?
its a toss up.. but emirate to copenhagen looks better by a few grand business class from AKL mid year.
could be wrong...expect food to be better on AIR but who has travelled long hual recently on both?
Quote from: Buzz on Feb 13, 2023, 04:37 PMMaybe AirNZ reduced their prices since I booked a while ago. They were significantly more expensive than Qantas at the time I booked. Are they still three hops?
Yes, Wellington to Auckland to Bangkok.
Air NZ is definitely cheaper than Qantas now based upon my search on their air fares.
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 13, 2023, 05:05 PMits a toss up.. but emirate to copenhagen looks better by a few grand business class from AKL mid year.
could be wrong...expect food to be better on AIR but who has travelled long hual recently on both?
Flew to Dubai and back on Emirates in January. Serious B-grade cabin crew service on the way to Dubai, OK service on the way back.
How was the food? any good?
I thought the food was ok, but some mixed reviews from some travel companions.
Interesting info out today.
turn around ? lift off? throttles up...gear up...
its all right NOW!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqdCZ0yHNa4
long way to go but.... buy now? Jardens actually got it right last month..
International air line profits well down on pre Bug life but hay ... buy when the air field is full of planes but they arnt now and with china opening up in the next 24 months those little china tourists will be flying again in 2025..
Moa XI Moa blinked... meow Xi MEOOW
Moving on up .. up up up and away ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2hI3-KvYZY
good morning passengers ,,,,
"Tourism companies set to report strong profits as industry rebounds from Covid"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131268383/tourism-companies-set-to-report-strong-profits-as-industry-rebounds-from-covid
Surfs up people and the suns out... lets get out there!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_UTRJSogxE
see you there this afternoon... pack those board bags...
The SHAZ will be buying like there is no tomorrow...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealand-heading-for-1b-turnaround-as-profit-surges-to-13m-a-day-forsyth-barr-analysis/L6635QFYL5GYFB2AK7JPNWKE4I/
Is she going to break trhough 82 this week.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmzkizC6Rz4
This bird is going to be flying high in 5 years and could leave the rest of the NZX in the dust with the advances in engine design being tested over the last 3 years that will come on line,
In 5 years time the engines of the future will push air transport back into the fore front of science and engineering.
Now you might think mach 10 was SC FI in top gun....
But how many of you were following the designs of the US air force in 1967?
How fast was the FASTEST MAN ALIVE going in 1967?
well here it is for those of you dont want to be the FASTEST MAN ALIVE in an aero plane...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-auU7XRq30o
Now back to flying high where the action for the next 5 years is going to be and its up up and away for the airline engine business...
Take a good look at this and you will get an idea what the US lost when it dropped the ball,
Now bet the US wished it had taken a lead that has taken the Evil axis 50 years to narrow the gap...
Flying hypersonic is now the next race.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-auU7XRq30o
Fly boys and girls its time to party as the national carrier returns to profits....
just in time to kick off a recovery in the face of more economic shocks...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQUKDkSbNv8
"Air New Zealand heading for $1b turnaround as profit surges to $1.3m a day"
stats out...
not a follower of this AIR line but hold tourism stocks.
enjoyed its long hual in the past.
domestic looks pretty good and overseas stats are building.
havnt seen the balance sheet which could take a while to clear no doubt but some talk of a sooner DIV than expected.
not even a mention on the other channel...
the market is silent... investors retreating... long winter coming...
Looks ok... but havnt got time to dig into the loans repayment schedule..
on the surface looks like they controlled costs and are now slugging it to travellers and making hay...
current AS looks ok.. with future bookings added in. This bird is off the hard deck...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ_1ZyOGOnM
heres the BS...
RASK for half year 16.8 cents = Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre
Pre-covid a good year it was around 10 cents
No wonder our CPI is out of control .... while AIR make obscene profits
Yes there is some price gouging going on, hey its Govt controlled so what do you expect lol
That said fuel costs are truly extraordinary and not because of the oil price.
Some very dumb decisions over the years, one of which was getting rid of Masden Point refinery.
Jet fuel similar to diesel in the oil cracking scheme of things.
When we had Marsden point what's known as the cost to crack oil was capped at a maximum of $9 barrel.
The theory was if we got rid of Marsden point the giant refineries of Asia could supply cracked oil cheaper.
The crack spread as its known was recently as high as $70 a barrel, radically affecting all forms of refined fuel. Reported recently on CNBC its down to about $40 now but still many times what it was when we got fuel refined at Marsden point.
The crack spread is one of the main reasons why we are paying such incredibly high prices for diesel and petrol even though oil is now lower than when Russia first invaded Ukraine a year ago today.
I also hear anecdotally from a client that the bitumen at the bottom of the cracking process coming from Asia is much lower quality than what came from Marsden point and this is one of the reasons why the road repairs are not holding up as well.
Totally agree with u basil re marsden. It's also things like co2, which is essential for many businesses. Look at the margins that the refineries are now making also... been watching Vea.asx but haven't dipped my toe in yet.. anyway enough from me as this is a airnz forum!
while AIR make obscene profit
hope sooooo !!!!!
HOPE SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
not flying her to COPO though... go business the other way...stop over in greece maybe or on the way back..
With the way Tax legistaltion is going in this country its TIME to get out!!!
They wont be able to lower that TAX rates even if a change of GOVT unless they LIST all department on the NZX.
Cam Wallace ex AIR and recently resigned from MediaWorks is heading to Qantas as CEO of Qantas International and Freight ......and maybe could even take over as CEO of the whole thing next year
Foran and Wallace don't get along too well so could be interesting
Winner() your all over it... what about earning on SP 500 dropping 20 percent over the next 24 months...
better keep an eye on bloomberg and CNBC!!!!!!
So The Chair bought 150000 shares on market on the first of March at 78.5cps.
Probably means nothing.
For those of you who truly miss the big wild blue yonder and are opera fans... here is a new take on Lakmé - Duo des fleurs...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp_hzrB_FI4
and then a more traditional version .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1ZL5AxmK_A
No spare engines so two A320s grounded and thousands and thousands of passengers face disruption
Almost as bad as Cook Strait ferries
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/488423/air-new-zealand-grounds-two-planes-almost-150-000-passengers-impacted
Seems counterintuitive to ground a brand new A321 Neo !
AIR actually pretty cheap if you believe the analysts on FY23 earnings PE of only 6.8 and just on 8 if you believe their guess for FY24. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
Not too shabby.
But then I was watching CNBC the other day and saw the forecast PE for United Airlines and they came out with guidance of $11 - $12 per share in earnings this year, current year PE of only 4 ! Haven't looked at how stretched their balance sheet got over the Covid period but I reckon all airlines have a LOT of work to do to restore financial strength.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/UNITED-AIRLINES-HOLDINGS-45899617/financials/
is it a BUY MR B? A BB Buy?
Good question...gosh the balance sheet of United is stretched.
AIR - They're certainly making progress rebuilding things no doubt about that.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/407175/389233.pdf
Anecdotally its costing substantially more to travel anywhere now so their RASK looks pretty spectacular but how long will that last ? This industry is notorious for putting on too much capacity and eventually driving down ROI to uneconomic level's.
AIR has been a reasonably good hunting ground for the Beagle in years gone by but I think I'm inclined towards just keeping a watching brief at this stage. No doubt at some stage my nose for a feed will get excited by the intoxicating scent and allure of burnt aviation fuel and in a giddy bout of enthusiasm I'll jump back on this rollercoaster for another ride.
China just release demo of a new battery that looks interesting for aircraft...
actually it was an article in Stuffed which posted in the international market thread..
On the basis of the updates above, and assuming an average jet fuel price for the remainder of the 2023 financial year of US$95 per barrel, the airline now expects earnings before other significant items and taxation for the 2023 financial year to be in the range of $510 million to $560 million. This compares with the prior guidance range of $450 million to $530 million.
Ooo look an upgrade - next announcement should be all about a dividend this year 8)
Quote from: Crackity on Apr 27, 2023, 08:56 AMOn the basis of the updates above, and assuming an average jet fuel price for the remainder of the 2023 financial year of US$95 per barrel, the airline now expects earnings before other significant items and taxation for the 2023 financial year to be in the range of $510 million to $560 million. This compares with the prior guidance range of $450 million to $530 million.
Ooo look an upgrade - next announcement should be all about a dividend this year 8)
Against a current market cap of $2.6 billion, the mid point forecast of $535m NPBT (will be no tax for a few years given the losses sustained in the last 3 years of the pandemic) puts the stock on a PER of 4.85X or 6.75X after notional tax of 28%.
Looks cheap.
Talked to a friend who is a senior steward at Air NZ recently - they are still looking for staff but the worse is over. Interesting but I did not know that one has to be able to swim to be a flight attendant! And on every flight, there is a staff member with self-defense skills.
yes lift off... get some...
anyone gone europe recently? who did you fly with?
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 27, 2023, 09:36 AMyes lift off... get some...
anyone gone europe recently? who did you fly with?
A friend (returned last week).
Flew EK though.
Business trip from CHC. Company paid.
Quote from: Crackity on Apr 27, 2023, 08:56 AMOn the basis of the updates above, and assuming an average jet fuel price for the remainder of the 2023 financial year of US$95 per barrel, the airline now expects earnings before other significant items and taxation for the 2023 financial year to be in the range of $510 million to $560 million. This compares with the prior guidance range of $450 million to $530 million.
Ooo look an upgrade - next announcement should be all about a dividend this year 8)
No doubt about it they're absolutely taking customers to the cleaners with their new super expensive price structure. How long will it last though ?
Lot of new capacity being put on the N.Z. route by AIR's competitors.
What have we got here ? A one year revenge travel / price gouging phenomenon or an enduring new trend...that's the $64,000 question. You'd have to be crackers to think you can be sure of the answer, sorry mate, couldn't resist ;)
Maybe we should think about what the TA is telling us. Clear break down through the 100 day MA...not looking that flash. I think the market is telling us that as usual we can expect other carriers to put a LOT more capacity on routes AIR flies such that the super premium pricing AIR has enjoyed in the last year won't last.
would agree but there is a world wide shortage of planes, crews an tink that might give the KIWI a break.
its worth having a bit of it..
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/aircraft-shortage-emerging-amid-endemic-delivery-delays/151711.article
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/strong-demand-cheaper-fuel-prompt-air-nz-to-up-profit-guidance/153028.article
its wobbling around a bit...
A couple of months old but an opinion that there are too many passengers (demand) but not enough planes to fly them.
It also refers to the upcoming competition on the North American routes.
The big problem at Air NZ few people are talking about
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300819240/the-big-problem-at-air-nz-few-people-are-talking-about
Yeep .. anyone like the 777-200ER ?
seemed to be a loud air con every time... dont ever want to be on a night flight in one of those old beasts.
Air wont be returning to its SP highs for sure but its still could see SP slow growth off 60-70 range.
And plenty of shaz will buy it and may be since they dont know a debit from a credit and a balance sheet from a bowel movement they will move the price anyway... if the SHAZ platform doesnt not go broke..
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Apr 27, 2023, 10:48 PMA couple of months old but an opinion that there are too many passengers (demand) but not enough planes to fly them.
It also refers to the upcoming competition on the North American routes.
The big problem at Air NZ few people are talking about
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300819240/the-big-problem-at-air-nz-few-people-are-talking-about
Good article. Also there is a lot of people who were treated poorly during COVID. Air NZ were deceitful with US refunds and broke the law. Once the credits are used up a lot of built up loyalty will be gone in my opinion. Will the pend up demand from the the last few years continue. How much business will be lost due to lack of planes and others taking the routes. What affect will these new entrants have longer term.
I don't see it as cheap, fairly priced in my opinion.
Disc, Not a holder.
Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 28, 2023, 06:52 AMGood article. Also there is a lot of people who were treated poorly during COVID. Air NZ were deceitful with US refunds and broke the law. Once the credits are used up a lot of built up loyalty will be gone in my opinion. Will the pend up demand from the the last few years continue. How much business will be lost due to lack of planes and others taking the routes. What affect will these new entrants have longer term.
I don't see it as cheap, fairly priced in my opinion.
Disc, Not a holder.
Recommendation impact (last updated: 27/04/2023)
--
Event analysis
Air New Zealand: Cheap Fuel and Full Planes a Boon for Near-Term Profitability
We maintain our NZD 0.97 fair value estimate for shares in Air New Zealand following a trading update. Our fair value estimate for Australian-listed securities lifts 2% to AUD 0.90 based on the current AUD/NZD exchange rate of about 1.08. The airline upgraded guidance for fiscal 2023 underlying pretax profit to between NZD 510 million and NZD 560 million—a 9% increase from prior guidance at the midpoint. Strong demand is persisting, and jet fuel prices have moderated (albeit offset by weakness in the NZD), leading to exceptional near-term profitability for Air New Zealand. We lift our fiscal 2023 underlying pretax profit forecast by 5% to NZD 542 million, but make only minor tweaks to our longer-term forecasts.
It's an update from Morningside so almost certainly incorrect......
Haha, true.
In some cases M seem to be ultra conservative, but not here.
All things being equal so to speak, I do seem some upwards potential though.
one of the best performing stocks lately has been FLT Centre ...
did a raise at 14.60 and SP just hit 20 again...
A retired Fire man from Matamata visited Lake Karapiro yesterday and said he flying first class to Holland to visit 2 of his children living and work there....
Now this might not sound strange only neither he nor his wife are Dutch.
He knew not what time his plan departed singapore nor landed nor what air port hes was landing and not that in September in the northern hemisphere it was going to be autumn nor that his wife was planning on taking him to the
https://www.mauritshuis.nl/?_gl=1*1xylxhn*_ga*MTQ3MTc0NDYwNy4xNjgzMDY3MTkx*_ga_RX3Z9MNYR9*MTY4MzA2NzE5MC4xLjAuMTY4MzA2NzE5MC4wLjAuMA..
There you go KIWIS your International.... Hes going to get Colosnee for sure. His wife knew exactly what was in the Art House.
Could it be that the country is actually run by women who know their Art while the KIWI man inhabits his Cave in the Garage.
This retired fire fighters world is about the change through the invention of powered flight.
The sky's are about to get full again....
Colosnee Explained.
(This is a condition you may suffer from if your visit or revisit europe or the UK). the worst cases are often reported after peoples from down under go to a summer evenings performance of Mid Summer Nights Dream anywhere in the northern hemisphere. Once back down under the infected individual slowly recovers from this condition only to find that their children if sent on their OE stay to long in Europe that they too get Colosnee...ed).
(Colosnee ... Colonised....)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTFEZiKItLs
Watched a youtube video on Emirates first class suites on their A380 with the showers and everything the other day. Og my goodness...that's the way to travel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6hpzfYV2fU
AIR so called premium product so outdated it's pathetic. That's how I see it.
That is a nice way to fly, although the older I get the less I enjoy it. Knock me out when we pull away from the gate and wake me up once we're back on the ground.
Remember Mr T? :D
Quote from: Onemootpoint on May 03, 2023, 12:01 PMThat is a nice way to fly, although the older I get the less I enjoy it. Knock me out when we pull away from the gate and wake me up once we're back on the ground.
Remember Mr T? :D
Yeap. I think that's what most people try and do with the free alcohol and coffee, maybe aided and abetted by the sleeping pills they bring along lol
Only issue I have is that very fat dogs and extremely small economy seats or the standard economy seats AIR tries to pass off as business class, don't go together and are not happy bedfellows.
Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 28, 2023, 06:52 AMGood article. Also there is a lot of people who were treated poorly during COVID. Air NZ were deceitful with US refunds and broke the law. Once the credits are used up a lot of built up loyalty will be gone in my opinion. Will the pend up demand from the the last few years continue. How much business will be lost due to lack of planes and others taking the routes. What affect will these new entrants have longer term.
I don't see it as cheap, fairly priced in my opinion.
Disc, Not a holder.
Excellent synopsis. The air fare wars have started already, a bit earlier than I anticipated.
Lot of capacity being brough back by overseas carriers with more modern aircraft and far more comfortable interior configurations. AIR product is dated and as you say they are short of planes and crew.
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/?ef_id=87d7d313a44c1b4213e2b74ba33a1ad6:G:s&s_kwcid=AL!1735!10!77309586518899!77309604386697&msclkid=87d7d313a44c1b4213e2b74ba33a1ad6&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=BING%20AIRNZ%20NZ%20%7C%20Brand%20%7C%20-%20%7C%20-%20%7C%20-%20%7C%20EXA%20%7C%20Tail%20Terms&utm_term=air%20new%20zealan&utm_content=Misspellings
Grab a seat cheap internal flights are back too. Might be flying to Dunedin later this month, only $104 each way from Auckland.
The brief era of AIR being able to price gouge customers is already over. As you suggest, once those credits are used up people will reflect on how poorly AIR treated them during the pandemic and have their eyes wide open to make an objective decision about which carrier will give them the best flight experience for their hard earned money.
Over 20 years ago I was shafted by Air NZ.
I was given the wrong date for a wedding in Sydney.
Cost of changing ticket dates was excessive.
I have never flown Air NZ since.
Emirates,Qantas and JetStar have served me well.
And if you had done the same with any of those airlines the same result would have eventuated.
I draw the line at the extremely cramped old relic A320's Jetstar flies with their appalling level of so-called service, their filthy dirty seats that look like they haven't been cleaned in years and their appalling 'reliability."
BUY AIR... just fly EMR... actually cheap business cleass to copenhagen via china airlines and SAS...
if they dont blow up any nuclear power plates its back to business in euro land 2024-25...
AIR bringing back the fleet...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/131986468/air-new-zealand-is-bringing-back-its-last-aircraft-from-desert-boneyard
Building the fleet up ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131998153/air-nz-to-invest-35b-in-new-aircraft-and-retrofitting-fleet
Competition heating up on the domestic front too. $45 Auckland to Queenstown!
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/auckland-queenstown-for-45-in-latest-jetstar-sale/ar-AA1aXXbz?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5f6a2bf5fa134593a473fd3f2c3c5603&ei=9
As long as no mistakes are made:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/131986696/how-i-got-socked-500-by-jetstar-for-a-booking-mistake
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/skynest-air-nz-reveals-how-much-its-new-economy-beds-will-cost-per-use/ar-AA1aYesS?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=cd14de776f964d20b40bbc4abfda6f6f&ei=11
~ $500 for four hours sleep is a good deal if you ask me. Much better than arriving completely shattered after zero hours sleep in a sardine can sized economy seat. Wonder if you can book it twice for the same flight and get a proper night's sleep for an economy class seat price + $1,000, now that would be an awesome deal! I doubt it, I bet the demand for these will be off the charts at that price.
Quote from: Basil on May 10, 2023, 01:06 PMhttps://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/skynest-air-nz-reveals-how-much-its-new-economy-beds-will-cost-per-use/ar-AA1aYesS?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=cd14de776f964d20b40bbc4abfda6f6f&ei=11
~ $500 for four hours sleep is a good deal if you ask me. Much better than arriving completely shattered after zero hours sleep in a sardine can sized economy seat. Wonder if you can book it twice for the same flight and get a proper night's sleep for an economy class seat price + $1,000, now that would be an awesome deal! I doubt it, I bet the demand for these will be off the charts at that price.
The thing is, if you have the time, it's still more cost effective to get a long-layover on flights to Europe etc, and book in a local hotel for $200 for the night and fly out refreshed the next day. I usually stop at Singapore and pay $200 for 6hours sleep in the transit hotel. It's right in the airport itself so no need to clear immigration. I mean, for $500 you could have a full nights sleep in a top-notch hotel, breakfast included and be way more refreshed. Much better than trying to catch 4hours sleep in a bunk bed on-board.
True, but some of the ultra long non-stop flights where the stop is the destination such as the New York flight could benefit from these.
Quote from: Onemootpoint on May 10, 2023, 03:04 PMTrue, but some of the ultra long non-stop flights where the stop is the destination such as the New York flight could benefit from these.
Agree with you and Lounge Lizard. $125 per hour for 4 hours sleep and escape from the prison sentence of a sardine can economy class seat on a 14-15 hour nonstop flight seems like good value to me! Certainly, better than arriving in New York with no hour's sleep.
Speaking of long haul flights I read the other day that Qantas under their sunrise 2025 program are going to be starting non stop flights from Sydney to London in 2025 using a A350-1000. 20 hours! Its going to break new ground as being the world's longest flight. Crickey mate. Any takers for that endurance test ?
Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 10, 2023, 01:25 PMThe thing is, if you have the time, it's still more cost effective to get a long-layover on flights to Europe etc, and book in a local hotel for $200 for the night and fly out refreshed the next day. I usually stop at Singapore and pay $200 for 6hours sleep in the transit hotel. It's right in the airport itself so no need to clear immigration. I mean, for $500 you could have a full nights sleep in a top-notch hotel, breakfast included and be way more refreshed. Much better than trying to catch 4hours sleep in a bunk bed on-board.
Agreed. However clearing immigration in Singapore is a breeze - basically a non event compared to the immigration queues in e.g. New Zealand or Australia.
I don't have a Singaporean passport - but it never took me more than 10 min or so to pass immigration in Singapore. Might pay you try next time one of the outside hotels ... its nice to get some fresh air in the room and proper light (and food) as well :) ;
Air New Zealand to rent bunk beds to long-haul passengers for US$100 an hour
Bloomberg headline gets it - AIR is focussed on profits - yay
With all this postive chit chat from the forums investment community, does it mean AIR is now a BB+/- BUY?
Quote from: Waltzing on May 10, 2023, 09:30 PMWith all this postive chit chat from the forums investment community, does it mean AIR is now a BB+/- BUY?
BBB Beagle Busy Buying? No. To me there are worrying signs that the initial revenue travel splurge is quickly waning and with huge amounts of foreign carrier capacity coming back onto N.Z. routes the rampant price gouging AIR has been engaging in, is quickly coming to an end.
Already they are back to the usual practices of heavy discounting to fill the much lower number of operational planes they have.
slow growth only then... not up up and away...
some cut prices not everyday !!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/airfare-war-jetstar-launches-cut-price-domestic-flights/HCZ5UIKCFVEPZEQ6D2GYYJEZT4/
that means hopefully you can take more with you !! and you can be sure it wont go somewhere else where you arnt...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/132010967/air-new-zealand-has-come-up-with-its-own-baggage-tracking-service
Quote from: Waltzing on May 10, 2023, 09:30 PMWith all this postive chit chat from the forums investment community, does it mean AIR is now a BB+/- BUY?
Depends on the letters after the first B :P ; I am not buying :)
come on BP .... id say the world is not going to stay couped up in the cabin...
they are going to fly fly fly next year...and the next..
bali just got a plane load of Kiwis gone surfing... one group went for 3 weeks...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 11, 2023, 11:41 AMcome on BP .... id say the world is not going to stay couped up in the cabin...
they are going to fly fly fly next year...and the next..
bali just got a plane load of Kiwis gone surfing... one group went for 3 weeks...
Yeah - Neah.
While I sometimes invest in cyclicals ... I think the airline industry is too much of a magical rollercoaster ride for me.
1) I don't like roller coaster rides (personal preference)
2) I still more dislike rollercoasters where the track is likely to change or disappear during the ride.
Too much Harry Potter.
Airlines offer both.
But feel free to invest - you might become richer ... or you might not.
Dont consider airlines to be anything other than trades...
In this case there may be a trade here for while.
Quote from: Waltzing on May 11, 2023, 02:49 PMDont consider airlines to be anything other than trades...
In this case there may be a trade here for while.
Fair enough. However - while it is inevitable to trade in order to invest (you have to buy at least once, don't you ...?), I don't consider myself as a trader.
I try to learn as well from other peoples mistakes. Warren Buffett invested a some years ago into airlines ignoring his own earlier advice. Big mistake when Covid arrived. Just one bend in the rollercoaster ride nobody predicted.
But sure - in the short run AIR may or may not be a good trade. Depends on where the tracks of the roller coaster are heading. I can't see them, though. Can you?
Quote from: Waltzing on May 10, 2023, 10:00 PMslow growth only then... not up up and away...
Profits will peak in FY23 and drop away as competition heats up again. That's how I see it mate. It's also how the consensus analyst view sees it with eps dropping away from 12 cps in FY23 to 10cps in FY24 and then 9 cps in FY25. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
Put a no growth PE of 8.5 on FY25 earnings of 9 cps and what do you know, we have fair value of 76.5 cps.
I guess it's a hold for modest yield if you like the aviation industry and believe another pandemic won't decimate earnings again sometime in the next decade.
Average dividend forecast for the next 3 years is only 5 cps though which gives a pretty modest yield of only 6.5%.
Food for thought. Is that really enough for the very high risks in this very cyclical sector ?
Yes but the SHAZ doesnt buy by adding up the numbers do they? they may just see more AIR planes and more people travelling and go ... lets buy!!!
well HLG might be a better bet at 5-80 6....
its going to be interesting seeing how they go anyway...
some good vol today and up a few cents... looks like a trade..
I do believe there could be some upside, short term or temporarily. So agreed. Good for a trade if that's the play. Too speculative as an investment per se for my book.
Meanwhile the competition is heating up on the traditional strong/ dominant AIR trans Tasman routes:
Qantas announces major boost to New Zealand services
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/132089934/qantas-announces-major-boost-to-new-zealand-services
This includes a new WLG/ BNE route. And for the plane spotters it will be operated by an Embraer 190.
There are some cheap $5000 business flights with emirates going for july.. over 24 hours to copenhagen... back 3 months latrer 40 hours...
How many engine types is AIR flying this year and proposes to run in the next cycle of its CapEx.
for example how 700's with which engine are being put into service and how many newer aircraft with newer fuel efficient engines are going to be flying.
Next gen 777 https://www.ge.com/news/reports/boeing-to-use-ges-powerful-ge90-for-next-gen-777#:~:text=The%20Boeing%20777%20is%20the,test%20stand%20in%20Peebles%2C%20Ohio.
It took 3 dacdes for TA to be refined for use in aircraft engine design production apparently...
Turbines..
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214785319327191
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf6H8kSunRA
Carbon Fibre ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lapFQl6RezA
Quote from: Onemootpoint on May 19, 2023, 01:04 PMMeanwhile the competition is heating up on the traditional strong/ dominant AIR trans Tasman routes:
Qantas announces major boost to New Zealand services
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/132089934/qantas-announces-major-boost-to-new-zealand-services
This includes a new WLG/ BNE route. And for the plane spotters it will be operated by an Embraer 190.
Kangaroo cunning there. Starting a new service with a 100 seat aircraft and making it daily and year round will make it easy to fill the aircraft and cut right into the meat of AIR's business. https://www.qantas.com/au/en/qantas-experience/onboard/seat-maps/embraer-190-100.html
Competition is coming from left, right and center. $5,000 return to Europe business class with Emirates is crazy cheap for a business class fare on a premier carrier. Lucky AIR doesn't fly there any more as such a deal would eat their lunch if they did.
Foran said in paper today he's not running a charity .....so high fares here to stay
Quote from: winner (n) on May 20, 2023, 12:02 PMForan said in paper today he's not running a charity .....so high fares here to stay
Said like he's the head of a monopolistic Government department lol
We'll see how that stack's up against very well funded overseas carriers, (some of whom are state owned and enjoy a massive fuel price advantage over AIR), with far better and more modern aircraft fit-out who are keen to grow their worldwide market share and internally against Jetstar keen to wring the very last engine hour out of their aging low cost, old aircraft. Basically, if you want a fairly priced airfare, don't fly AIR.
Quote from: Basil on May 20, 2023, 12:37 PMSaid like he's the head of a monopolistic Government department lol
We'll see how that stack's up against well funded overseas carriers keen to grow their worldwide market share and internally against Jetstar keen to wring the very last engine hour out of their aging low cost, old aircraft.
Basically, if you want a fairly priced airfare, don't fly AIR
A friend just flew in from Tokyo on Air NZ, said the plane was almost empty. Both her and her son had an entire row of seats all to themselves. The air crew told her that they flew a New York to Auckland flight with only 50 people on board. So looks like those NZ fares are price gouging Kiwi's in order to fly the planes back empty. LOL
Empty planes where you can stretch out and sleep across a row of seats...gosh it might be worth flying AIR long haul after all...maybe if you book on a code share partner at a fair price and then get AIR's empty row of seats lol
Must admit Jetstar's sale fare of a shockingly low $45 Auckland to Queenstown recently had me pondering if I could tolerate their filthy cramped seats and old planes again....there's a price advantage where a Beagle will stoop to almost anything lol...not sure if I really could stoop that low at any price but that's a decision for another day...
Anyway...on the Jetstar thing I figured at that price you could always wear a disposable mask and gloves and have a really long shower afterwards lol
Quote from: Basil on May 20, 2023, 12:47 PMEmpty planes where you can stretch out and sleep across a row of seats...gosh it might be worth flying AIR long haul after all...maybe if you book on a code share partner at a fair price and then get AIR's empty row of seats lol
Must admit Jetstar's sale fare of a shockingly low $45 Auckland to Queenstown recently had me pondering if I could tolerate their filthy cramped seats and old planes again....there's a price advantage where a Beagle will stoop to almost anything lol...not sure if I really could stoop that low at any price but that's a decision for another day...
Anyway...on the Jetstar thing I figured at that price you could always wear a disposable mask and gloves and have a really long shower afterwards lol
The way I look at is that the money you save flying Jetstar pays for a really nice dinner and a bottle of wine to make up for any inconvenience :-)
Maybe drink the whole bottle and some cocktails as well so you can forget about the terrible customer "service" ;)
Anyway...here's Greg Foran opining on all sorts of things, sorry folks its paywalled
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-greg-foran-on-his-future-emerging-from-covids-dark-days-and-price-gouging-claims/PCT5MESPRVAINEBLRPZMZIHZJ4/
Some interesting comments in the comments section. A lot of people with long memories of how AIR have and still are, fleecing them.
Quote from: KW on May 20, 2023, 12:57 PMThe way I look at is that the money you save flying Jetstar pays for a really nice dinner and a bottle of wine to make up for any inconvenience :-)
Agree, despite the vitriol about Jetstar, my experience was completely different. For 18 months I commuted on Jetstar A320 weekly into Auckland, out Monday 7am flight, in Thursday 6pm flight.
Not once did I have any reason to be disappointed, the worst thing I recall was a couple of flights were 20 minutes late departing. Being a regular commuter, I could book my flights weeks in advance and score some very cheap fares, the most expensive was from memory $220 return, but usually around $130-$150 return. I found the Jetstar customer service on ground and in the air to be just fine, no gripes there at all. In fact they bailed me twice from Auckland before the lockdowns, found me a seat and I'd just fronted up to the airport (in a bit of a rush to get out). Overall I saved $thousands on costs of airfares than had I chosen AirNZ.
AIR Today was quoting 6180 to Europe Business class one way..
The quote the other day was 5500 one way..emirate i think.
Today 5500 and return 6150 business class...
Flying July to september.
Quote from: KW on May 20, 2023, 12:57 PMThe way I look at is that the money you save flying Jetstar pays for a really nice dinner and a bottle of wine to make up for any inconvenience :-)
True - but don't you first have to buy an AIR ticket to get to your destination? Remember - Cancelstar does not fly when you want them to, but only if they think it s worthwhile for them (i.e. enough seats sold), if their engines still run and if their staff doesn't happen to call in sick.
Having said that - our daughter in law recently got shafted by AIR cancelling a flight home on her ... apparently they have not enough working engines to fly all the seats they already sold :);
Maybe better stop flying and take the waka ... Oops - but avoid our Cook street ferries, they are really bad!
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 22, 2023, 11:04 AMTrue - but don't you first have to buy an AIR ticket to get to your destination? Remember - Cancelstar does not fly when you want them to, but only if they think it s worthwhile for them (i.e. enough seats sold), if their engines still run and if their staff doesn't happen to call in sick.
Having said that - our daughter in law recently got shafted by AIR cancelling a flight home on her ... apparently they have not enough working engines to fly all the seats they already sold :);
Maybe better stop flying and take the waka ... Oops - but avoid our Cook street ferries, they are really bad!
I've flown Jetstar all over the world and not had a problem with them, apart from one cancellation/reschedule due to bad weather out of Melbourne. Any delays just meant more time in the Qantas Lounge lol. The only time I've missed an international flight due to a late connecting domestic flight was on Air NZ.
Quote from: KW on May 22, 2023, 12:30 PMI've flown Jetstar all over the world and not had a problem with them, apart from one cancellation/reschedule due to bad weather out of Melbourne. Any delays just meant more time in the Qantas Lounge lol. The only time I've missed an international flight due to a late connecting domestic flight was on Air NZ.
You must be special.
Other people can use them only in Oceania and some parts of Eastern Asia. Do you lease their planes to bring you to the rest of the world (like US, South America, Northern Asia, Europe, Africa, ...?
... and yes, other people do report as well cancellations (though admittedly, this was more often in NZ domestically and during the last handful of years).
Anyway ... last time they moved my booked and paid for Quantas flight over to Jetstar, I decided to look in future for better carriers.
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 22, 2023, 01:17 PMYou must be special.
Other people can use them only in Oceania and some parts of Eastern Asia. Do you lease their planes to bring you to the rest of the world (like US, South America, Northern Asia, Europe, Africa, ...?
... and yes, other people do report as well cancellations (though admittedly, this was more often in NZ domestically and during the last handful of years).
Anyway ... last time they moved my booked and paid for Quantas flight over to Jetstar, I decided to look in future for better carriers.
You know they fly to the US right?
Quote from: KW on May 22, 2023, 03:56 PMYou know they fly to the US right?
Well sort of, to Honolulu but not mainland USA. NZ, Aus, Hong Kong, Taipei, Cambodia, Cooks island, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Phillipines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand. I think the BP is picking on your statement "I've flown Jetstar all over the world", which is clearly not possible because they don't fly all over the world.
Quote from: Buzz on May 22, 2023, 05:24 PMWell sort of, to Honolulu but not mainland USA. NZ, Aus, Hong Kong, Taipei, Cambodia, Cooks island, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Phillipines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand. I think the BP is picking on your statement "I've flown Jetstar all over the world", which is clearly not possible because they don't fly all over the world.
I didnt say I've flown "everywhere in the world". But whatever. Can we please raise the level of intellectual discussion on this site? Some people are clearly better off going back to the other one.
More competition coming soon on an exclusive AIR route - Perth. As it is the current route is served by a wet lease (I believe) and not up to the usual standard of AIR. Until October apparently.
Malaysian airline Batik Air to take on Air NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300886405/malaysian-airline-batik-air-to-take-on-air-nz
Singapore Airlines brings their superbly fitted out A380 back into service on the Auckland route.
Just look at the caliber of their first class suites. Paywalled.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/capacity-boost-as-singapore-airlines-brings-airbus-a380-back-to-auckland/OVRALDV6EBDRXL2WXT42CPLGB4/
Quote from: Basil on May 24, 2023, 03:53 PMSingapore Airlines brings their superbly fitted out A380 back into service on the Auckland route.
Just look at the caliber of their first class suites. Paywalled.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/capacity-boost-as-singapore-airlines-brings-airbus-a380-back-to-auckland/OVRALDV6EBDRXL2WXT42CPLGB4/
....and a non-paywalled version from a competitor which may or may not contain similar info..... :)
Quote from: Basil on May 24, 2023, 03:53 PMSingapore Airlines brings their superbly fitted out A380 back into service on the Auckland route.
Just look at the caliber of their first class suites. Paywalled.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/capacity-boost-as-singapore-airlines-brings-airbus-a380-back-to-auckland/OVRALDV6EBDRXL2WXT42CPLGB4/
A380 definitely a larger calibre than a 787 by about 15%
A problem AIR has in some (not all) planes is the fit out. The B777's have been brought back and newer planes are not due until later. Those older planes have really dated fit outs, are noisier than A380's or B787's, etc.
The wet lease on the Perth route doesn't help either.
And AIR now will also have to deal with competition on routes it had for itself for a while eg Perth and New York.
Having said that, I do believe with flying increasing (more business and tourists, students, etc) worldwide including NZ there could be some upside.
May not be smooth flying though.
" are noisier "
and i though it was just me and my hearing aids....
oh thats right i havnt got them yet...
weigh in time ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/31/air-new-zealand-to-weigh-international-passengers-before-flying.html
Just as well they're not weighing some fat Beagle as that would push the average up lol
Air New Zealand has reclaimed the crown of the world's best airline.
The safety and product rating website AirlineRatings.com has unveiled its awards for 2023, which sees the national carrier take the title back from Qatar Airways.
There ya go - it's all good again - 8)
Bought back in yet Basil?
Oh well then, we better back the truck up first thing Tuesday. How could those people who make that decision possibly be wrong ;)
Wonder if any of them tried to telephone the call center during Covid or get a refund lol
Must say I think the Singapore first class product looks absolutely sublime. If you couldn't join the mile high club on a flight in a first-class suite with your partner on that airline, it's time for a trade-in lol
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/passenger-news/singapore-airlines-best-first-class-for-2023/
Apparently JET STAR got no stars but NZ could soon replace those call centres with AI regen... in fact id say that most companies are going to try to cut P&L costs by the use of information generating services...
Its only a matter of time before this is not a JOKE...
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/412718/396114.pdf
This is bound to go down well with my good mate Crackity's breakfast this morning.
At least $580m WOW.
That last paragraph is interesting and no doubt, not a surprise to anyone who takes and interest in these things.
I think it's clear that going forward into FY24, their ability to price gouge customers on international routes will be significantly reduced.
Trade it and Fade it !!!
Quote from: Basil on Jun 08, 2023, 09:44 AMhttp://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/412718/396114.pdf
their ability to price gouge customers on international routes will be significantly reduced.
Surely you meant to say meet the market demand - price gouge is such an ugly word for the most respected or was it beloved airline in the world.
See the Napier to AK prices now Jetstar don't fly that route anymore 😂
Implications of price gouging were strenuously denied by Greg Foran in a recent interview. I think he took umbridge at the suggestion. Just for fun I did that mate. Suppose I had to travel to Napier (to make it fair I picked one week from today) on business for the day. Best priced flights Auckland to Napier timed to enable almost a full days work there were $264 each way. I think Greg Foran mentioned in a recent interview "we're not a charity" lol
Quote from: Basil on Jun 08, 2023, 11:05 AMImplications of price gouging were strenuously denied by Greg Foran in a recent interview. I think he took umbridge at the suggestion. Just for fun I did that mate. Suppose I had to travel to Napier (to make it fair I picked one week from today) on business for the day. Best priced flights Auckland to Napier timed to enable almost a full days work there were $264 each way. I think Greg Foran mentioned in a recent interview "we're not a charity" lol
Yeah - when Jetstar flew there I used to pay $39 each way to visit friends
Flew midday Saturday / drinks at the Gin Trap / coffee at Crazy Good / a bit of cycling / a nice walk to the airport Monday and back on another midday flight 👍👍
Back to Greg - I think he's gonna under promise and over deliver next year though I do have my parachute nearby just in case.....
Quote from: Basil on Jun 08, 2023, 11:05 AMImplications of price gouging were strenuously denied by Greg Foran in a recent interview. I think he took umbridge at the suggestion. Just for fun I did that mate. Suppose I had to travel to Napier (to make it fair I picked one week from today) on business for the day. Best priced flights Auckland to Napier timed to enable almost a full days work there were $264 each way. I think Greg Foran mentioned in a recent interview "we're not a charity" lol
Flew Qtwon to Hamilton a couple of months ago, was about $1,100.
Hard not to feel like are being gouged.
But to be fair, it was only $100 to get to Hamilton, but $1,000 to get back out....!! ;D ;) :o
Press Release No: 26
Date: 5 June 2023
Airline Profitability Outlook Strengthens
Istanbul - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced an expected strengthening of airline industry profitability in an upgrade of its outlook for 2023.
Airline industry operating profits are expected to reach $22.4 billion in 2023, much improved over the December forecast of a $3.2 billion operating profit. It is also more than double the $10.1 billion operating profit estimated for 2022.
Jeez - so everyone happy in airline land including AIR - interesting
Nice calm clear blue skies out there at the moment eh Crackity. Almost perfect flying conditions.
Great that this time it's different and its always going to stay that way ;)
Chart looks very uninspiring.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 11, 2023, 10:07 AMChart looks very uninspiring.
Yep it's been in a holding pattern all year - when it's over 85cps it'll look much better and I'll give you the buy signal 🤔
Break out... uummm take off... arrh air borne ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aTp5fM0ykQ
up up and away in your ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVhX-Sh2110
EPS will be over 12+ cps for the year to June - wonder how much the dividend will be, maybe 3cps.
More importantly, competition will increase for FY24 but I'd suggest they can still make 10cps and pay 5cps.
They are under promising and over delivering under Foran but pandemics aside there are so many variables it's hard to say they are worth anymore than $1.00 tops.
AIR in a new world of pandemic(s). A different view.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
Average broker estimate for FY23 is 12 cps and then FY24 is 10 cps and FY25 also 10 cps.
So the easy and tempting thing to do is to say, okay FY24 and 25 are probably fair mid point of the cycle so the company can earn 10 cps and seeing as there's no growth we whack a no growth PE of 8 on there and bingo, fair value is 80 cps. So provided we never get another pandemic we're all good at 80 cents.
But lets flip this thing around and have a look at the losses over the last 3 years which total (according to market screener) a whopping $1.07 per share. So combined FY23, FY24 and FY25 they are forecast to earn 32 cps and 32 / $1.07 means they have expunged only 30% of the losses incurred in the previous 3 years. Hmmm...So it will take them 10-11 years to eradicate losses incurred due to Covid. No wonder Greg Foran says we are not running a charity..
What are the chances of another worse variant creating another lot of havoc sometime in the next decade or two ?
Quote from: Basil on Jun 11, 2023, 08:46 PMAIR in a new world of pandemic(s). A different view.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
Average broker estimate for FY23 is 12 cps and then FY24 is 10 cps and FY25 also 10 cps.
So the easy and tempting thing to do is to say, okay FY24 and 25 are probably fair mid point of the cycle so the company can earn 10 cps and seeing as there's no growth we whack a no growth PE of 8 on there and bingo, fair value is 80 cps. So provided we never get another pandemic we're all good at 80 cents.
But lets flip this thing around and have a look at the losses over the last 3 years which total (according to market screener) a whopping $1.07 per share. So combined FY23, FY24 and FY25 they are forecast to earn 32 cps and 32 / $1.07 means they have expunged only 30% of the losses incurred in the previous 3 years. Hmmm...So it will take them 10-11 years to eradicate losses incurred due to Covid. No wonder Greg Foran says we are not running a charity..
What are the chances of another worse variant creating another lot of havoc sometime in the next decade or two ?
Worthwhile reminder. Cheers.
I think it was Buffet in his better years stating never to buy airlines (until he did and lost money).
AIR is the prototype of a cyclical, and nobody can predict when the next downcycle starts. As you said - the next virus might be already in its wings, and I can't really imagine that global warming will help with AIR 's business either, unless they manage to change their fleet of jet planes to engineless gliders :) ;
Still - probably plenty of fun ahead for traders, one just needs to know in advance when to be long and when short.
Inside the Qantas offensive against Air NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300901893/inside-the-qantas-offensive-against-air-nz
Article highlights AIR's plane shortage and paints a somewhat bleak-ish picture.
Just highlights the rebound in travel stocks like flight centre and that the KANGAS are expecting to return to holidaying!!
even though GDP forecasts for the Kandas is flat.
Does not mean AIR cant survive but thrive.
And the winner() is the flying public with lower prices and AIR will have to up its game.
Who wont start booking flights with lower prices!!
Excellent article, thanks for sharing and adds very important perspective. In terms of this companies future, I think the view out the front window of the aircraft is very different to the one out the side window, so to speak.
I wouldn't mind wagering a few bob the AIR board were seriously annoyed when Qantas hired Cam Wallace. Those restraint of trade clauses in some employment contracts are never long enough in certain situations like this.
Yeap BP, even Warren Buffet needed a reminder lesson there's no real money long term in airlines. It's refreshing when even the best make expensive decisions, makes us all feel better about our own mistakes lol.
AUS GDP is flat for the next 3 years so there view out the front window is not that wonderful either as China rebound halts itself.
Head winds everywhere for a while and you would better put your AIR shares perhaps in TRA....immigration driving up demand for cars...after they have failed with driving tests...
people use cars more than planes ...
Kangas rate NZ AIR well.. maybe this means that all things KIWI are now rated higher in Kanga land and it flow on for many areas of Tourism.
Maybe Tourism NZ should be targeting Kanga Land and then NZ brands in AUS will prosper.
Put Gangs on white island ... teach them to fish... Tourist Attraction!!!
I reckon you're right. Demand for used cars is very resilient even in tougher times.
Singapore Airlines has been named the World's Best Airline for the third year running, with Qantas missing out on a top ten spot. Qatar and ANA All Nippon Airways rounded out the top three spots, followed by Emirates and Japan Airlines.
Singapore Airlines also received top billing for their first class seats and amenities, while Qatar's Business Class was dubbed Best Cabin, Lounge and Seat.
The awards, which began in 1999, are considered the Oscars of the aviation world, with the winners announced this week at a gala event held in the Air and Space Museum at the Paris Air Show.
AirAsia won World's Best Low-Cost Airline again, having taken out the award each year since 2010, while Scoot won World's Best Long Haul Low-Cost Airline.
Antipodean airlines didn't make a splash this year, with Qantas ranked 17th on the World's Best Arlines list, behind Fiji Airways and Iberia, while Air New Zealand placed 19th.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/travel/news/singapore-airlines-named-world-s-best-airline-by-skytrax-air-nz-19th/ar-AA1cOgv1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ffffc20d46e14c669d9c86b002d00b40&ei=15
Quote from: Basil on Jun 21, 2023, 04:48 PMhttps://www.msn.com/en-nz/travel/news/singapore-airlines-named-world-s-best-airline-by-skytrax-air-nz-19th/ar-AA1cOgv1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ffffc20d46e14c669d9c86b002d00b40&ei=15
First time out of NZ since pre-Covid coming up in just over a week, flying Air NZ Premium Economy.
Will be interested to see what its like. My expectations aren't high.....although at least fares were at a reasonable level, which was surprising given booked only about a week ago.
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Jun 22, 2023, 08:19 AMFirst time out of NZ since pre-Covid coming up in just over a week, flying Air NZ Premium Economy.
Will be interested to see what its like. My expectations aren't high.....although at least fares were at a reasonable level, which was surprising given booked only about a week ago.
Let us know. My recollections re AIR's "Premium Economy" are a mixed bag. Worst flight was when they decided to place a sick (coughing and spitting) lady from Economy into the one free Premium seat next to mine. Interesting 12 hours or so ... she clearly made sure to share her viruses liberally
Do you want a flu with that? Took me three weeks afterwards to shake it off again.
But apart from that - while the food was not too bad, the seats where always old and too short (foot rests too high) - and I am not a tall person.
Even Quantas Premium Economy was better, but hey - all some years ago now, maybe things have changed.
Premium economy seats are smaller than what normal economy seats were 15 years ago before they started all this B.S. seat downsizing business. Okay if you are a small or up to a medium sized person.
If you are bold enough to share your height and approx weight Sideshow Bob, that will make your feedback more meaningful.
All I am suggesting is that if you are say,120+ Kg's and 6 feet tall, both economy and premium economy are going to feel like slightly different versions of being in a sardine can. Seat width and pitch matters most for big dog's 👍
Quote from: Basil on Jun 22, 2023, 11:02 AMPremium economy seats are smaller than what normal economy seats were 15 years ago before they started all this B.S. seat downsizing business. Okay if you are a small or up to a medium sized person.
If you are bold enough to share your height and approx weight Sideshow Bob, that will make your feedback more meaningful.
All I am suggesting is that if you are say,120+ Kg's and 6 feet tall, both economy and premium economy are going to feel like slightly different versions of being in a sardine can. Seat width and pitch matters most for big dog's 👍
I'll report back in. Also have a few domestic flights in China, which are always interesting..... ;)
I'm about 6'2" and a little under 90Kg. Definitely agree with you re big dogs, but especially on width - people often forget about width. A few years ago, flew Air NZ economy in the dreamliner and understand Air NZ had put an extra seat in each row compared to most other airlines. My shoulder wasn't within the seat and continually bashed by the trollies, and people passing - super uncomfortable.
Should give Air NZ some big ups though (where deserved). They've rolled my gold status through Covid, and still have some upgrade credits. As mentioned I haven't been overseas for over 3.5 years, so appreciative of that where they would be well within their rights downgrading my status.
Yes I remember the extra seat in each row in the so called Dreamliner thing.
Too many accountants at AIR lol
Its will be time to travel in 2024 for sure...
just a matter of who provides the best business class deals...
Qantas has countered negative publicity from this week's Skytrax airline awards with a sure-fire passenger pleaser – an airfare sale.
High fares and average performance were thought to be behind the massive drop in Qantas' rankings in the best airline category of the awards, from 5th last year to 17th in 2023 (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-poor-showing-in-skytrax-worlds-best-airline-awards/news-story/cb58eb90273579df91b0fa29689c4788).
The flying kangaroo also missed out on the best airline in the Australia-Pacific region, taking second place to Fiji Airways.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-winds-back-the-clock-on-airfares-after-airline-awards-snub/news-story/7b83c8315392e671cfeede7d48edaacd?amp
Where's Air NZ's fare cuts, after all, they did even worse!
I just notice AIR's chart is nicely set up for a Break out. It's still range bound but if it pops on Volume, the next leg could be underway.
Disc - not holding yet
Quote from: McGinty on Jul 08, 2023, 02:48 PMI just notice AIR's chart is nicely set up for a Break out. It's still range bound but if it pops on Volume, the next leg could be underway.
Disc - not holding yet
Interesting words from the Mr Big of Emirates today 🤔 and NBR
Emirates -
But there's one post-pandemic phenomenon that has him surprised, not that he's at all bothered by it: even with high prices, passenger demand continues to defy gravity.
"Fares are nowhere near the levels that they used to be, we all know that. But the elasticity of pricing is inverted," he says during an interview in his sprawling ninth-floor office overlooking Dubai Airport.
"Dare I say it, the higher the price, the greater the demand."
The airline has enjoyed a spectacular turnaround from unprecedented losses during the pandemic to a record US$2.9 billion ($4.7b) profit as air travel has rebounded from the depths of Covid-19.
Clark says the recovery in demand was easy to forecast – he got his airline ready for it - but when airfares will return to where they were in 2019 is harder to pick.
"We are in a position of transitional disequilibrium," he says. "And as long as we are in that, it's very difficult to say what is likely to happen."
Transitional disequilibrium - a new entrant for bullshit bingo right there 👍👍
NBR headline
International air fares remain firm as demand exceeds supply
AIR result out end of August 🤔 hmmmm....
Massive cruise ships being built.... demand for travel could be restarting on a grand scale not ever seen...
get in to your FAV destination before the next shut down.... a friend just said he wants to go back to europe next year for 4 months...
get in while you can he says...
Cathy wood says a new roaring 20's is coming...
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Jun 22, 2023, 08:19 AMFirst time out of NZ since pre-Covid coming up in just over a week, flying Air NZ Premium Economy.
Will be interested to see what its like. My expectations aren't high.....although at least fares were at a reasonable level, which was surprising given booked only about a week ago.
Reporting back......
Lucky enough to use an upgrade on the way up. Daytime flight with 8.45am departure but was keen to try to use it than lose it. Business not full but pretty close to it. PE was the same.
Flight gets into HK about 4.30pm and then quick turnaround to leave on the scheduled return at 5.45pm. (Use to be a midnight flight out of AKL to get in at 8am, and then mid afternoon departure out of HK). Must be driving those aircraft hard and making sure they keep them in the air.
Put in for the upgrade on return, and got it at the gate. Business was full, PE was full also. Greg was actually on the return flight and spent a bit of time talking to staff.
In short, I'd say:
- Service and staff were excellent across all staff, and tried really hard.
- Food was average at best, probably below average. Probably actually say poor.
- Cabins are tired and overdue an upgrade. Would say cleaning bit sub-standard - ie found an old knife when got the TV out, and bit of dust when got the bed out.
When I booked, closest domestic connection on return was 4hrs. Got into domestic Koru in 40mins from landing, and Koru staff got me on a flight leaving in 15mins. Ordered a coffee, grabbed a Danish, and got home 3hrs earlier than scheduled. Excellent.
Not flown other airlines to compare to anytime recently, and good marks for effort, but room for improvement.
Also good marks from me for rolling over Gold status last few years where haven't flown enough to maintain due to Covid.
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Jul 21, 2023, 11:36 AMReporting back......
Lucky enough to use an upgrade on the way up. Daytime flight with 8.45am departure but was keen to try to use it than lose it. Business not full but pretty close to it. PE was the same.
Flight gets into HK about 4.30pm and then quick turnaround to leave on the scheduled return at 5.45pm. (Use to be a midnight flight out of AKL to get in at 8am, and then mid afternoon departure out of HK). Must be driving those aircraft hard and making sure they keep them in the air.
Put in for the upgrade on return, and got it at the gate. Business was full, PE was full also. Greg was actually on the return flight and spent a bit of time talking to staff.
In short, I'd say:
- Service and staff were excellent across all staff, and tried really hard.
- Food was average at best, probably below average. Probably actually say poor.
- Cabins are tired and overdue an upgrade. Would say cleaning bit sub-standard - ie found an old knife when got the TV out, and bit of dust when got the bed out.
When I booked, closest domestic connection on return was 4hrs. Got into domestic Koru in 40mins from landing, and Koru staff got me on a flight leaving in 15mins. Ordered a coffee, grabbed a Danish, and got home 3hrs earlier than scheduled. Excellent.
Not flown other airlines to compare to anytime recently, and good marks for effort, but room for improvement.
Also good marks from me for rolling over Gold status last few years where haven't flown enough to maintain due to Covid.
Your summation on Air sums up well my thoughts on our recent trip to Canada and Alaska. Food was very disappointing. Also say that the padding on the seats was non existent. looked very tired, which is how I felt arriving back from Vancouver. Serves me right going cattle class I guess.
The staff though, excellent.
Cabin Update. Paywalled but can watch the video
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/revealed-the-eye-watering-cost-of-air-new-zealands-new-business-class-seats/3YR7BM5MMNHMHPECJ2E3MWRHXM/
Is it Air NZ to Europe or ......
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/132657371/skyhigh-showers-and-17hour-flights-20-years-of-emirates-in-new-zealand
Another Air NZ sale to North America. Forward bookings for longhaul must really be struggling now.
Qantas doubling down on AIR's premier New York route.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/doubling-down-qantas-to-go-daily-on-auckland-new-york-route-in-battle-with-air-nz/2MZA7TADQJEXTPRNYVVQTIXNXA/
My thoughts. Cam Wallace working for Qantas is a huge blow to AIR. Whatever result they print later this month, its all about the forward outlook and I think the increase in fuel costs, revenge spending on travel tailing off, weak economy and ever-increasing competition on international routes paints a very sober picture of future profitability. In addition, from a competitive point of view I think much of AIR's internal fit out on wide body aircraft is very tired and dated.
Both Delta and American Airlines are about to start operating over our summer along with an increase in United services. Simply competition.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 22, 2023, 09:14 AMQantas doubling down on AIR's premier New York route.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/doubling-down-qantas-to-go-daily-on-auckland-new-york-route-in-battle-with-air-nz/2MZA7TADQJEXTPRNYVVQTIXNXA/
My thoughts. Cam Wallace working for Qantas is a huge blow to AIR. Whatever result they print later this month, its all about the forward outlook and I think the increase in fuel costs, revenge spending on travel tailing off, weak economy and ever-increasing competition on international routes paints a very sober picture of future profitability. In addition, from a competitive point of view I think much of AIR's internal fit out on wide body aircraft is very tired and dated.
Yes, I read this today. This article really emphasises how asleep AIR was at the wheel in their prep towards a post Covid plan. I try to be as loyal as I can but the fact is other airlines provide a better plane, fitout, prices than AIR at the moment.
Well they are going to pay a special DIV ...
Yup and they need some new planes... still probably fly emirates instead though...
That special div was surprising I think. Good for holders.
Well, they are in the process of buying/ upgrading, etc. but just slow off the mark. The others seem to have what NZ customers want. Having said that, it doesn't seem as if AIR are struggling to attract.
MorningStar:
We expect the return of industrywide capacity to lead to a normalisation in profitability and forecast underlying pretax profit to moderate by about 28% in fiscal 2024 to NZD 423 million.
EPS 9 (24) and 9.5 (25) with a 50% dividend.
Valuation 97p
Being MorningStar I'd take this with a pinch of salt ;)
There is probably no specific reason for AIR not to reach a bit higher as many of its peers are doing. They were just a bit slow in their planning, and lacked the apparent 'foresight' some of their peers had. Even Emirates unexpectedly and suddenly called back many A380's back into service like AIR with their ageing B777's. But they do have plans, planes and retrofits coming up albeit the planes seems to replace existing ones only.
But airline stocks can be fickle creatures and many an investor would say stay away.
We're not the only ones to criticise a national airline.
Seems the Aussies have some issues too; with theirs:
Qantas and Australia's skies clouded by soaring airfares, anti-competitive behaviour, and nepotism
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/qantas-and-australia-s-skies-clouded-by-soaring-airfares-anti-competitive-behaviour-and-nepotism
"Once a source of national pride, Qantas, the national carrier, has evolved into an emblem of profit-driven opportunism, leaving millions of Australians to bear the brunt of exorbitant fares and diminished customer service.
Amidst this disheartening scenario, the questionable ties between Qantas' Chief Executive Officer and senior Government figures further highlight the alarming extent to which vested interests have taken precedence over the well-being of the nation's people."
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Aug 31, 2023, 03:08 AMWe're not the only ones to criticise a national airline.
Seems the Aussies have some issues too; with theirs:
Qantas and Australia's skies clouded by soaring airfares, anti-competitive behaviour, and nepotism
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/qantas-and-australia-s-skies-clouded-by-soaring-airfares-anti-competitive-behaviour-and-nepotism
"Once a source of national pride, Qantas, the national carrier, has evolved into an emblem of profit-driven opportunism, leaving millions of Australians to bear the brunt of exorbitant fares and diminished customer service.
Amidst this disheartening scenario, the questionable ties between Qantas' Chief Executive Officer and senior Government figures further highlight the alarming extent to which vested interests have taken precedence over the well-being of the nation's people."
Well well. So Alan Joyce decided he had to go 2 months before his planned exit. Must have been real bad not being to hang on another 2 months.
Yes but that DIV AIR is paying is a monster in an inflationary world...
AIR should reach 90 ish if they can keep pumping the public...
A NAT/ACT govt might sell it down also...
Bet you Grant can't wait to get his hands on their share of the dividend.
That $103m will really shore up govt spending..... ::)
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Sep 07, 2023, 02:24 PMBet you Grant can't wait to get his hands on their share of the dividend.
That $103m will really shore up govt spending..... ::)
He would have better off getting a few hundred million in debt repayment before allowing them to splurge out on divies .....to retail investors in the main who in essence are being subsidised by the taxpayer
Just shows how the system is not ready for the increase in travel demand and imagine if there was not Costs of living crisis and high petrol prices...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-airport-delays-warning-as-15000-travellers-expected-first-day-of-school-holidays/ECPPLEG2BBDU7CGYNK7ETS6GXY/
Should be on a AIA thread.Customs and immigration problem.
Sorry prob not right forum... but OMG how crap is air Nz service! Been waiting 2 months on a refund (they're stuff up). Then contacted them about another issue, again bloody nothing.
It's a NZ thing...took me 4 months and about 10 hours hassle to get an Interislander refund processed.
Auckland Airport under travel siege today apparently and sagging under the pressure..
Fuel costs must be starting to bite pretty hard with oil prices and the $Kiwi where they are. No idea how much forward cover they have or for how long it confers a degree of protection, sorry.
Will it get to .90.... if that the TOP then TRA is the one...
can AIR keep up the DIV...
well the increase in GDP performance is going to be a dead cat bounce .... slow down for the next 12 to 18 months!!!! oh dear .... well maybe something will rescue the plane ... and the economy...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/did-we-really-dodge-recession-or-has-the-economy-just-had-a-dead-cat-bounce/V5ZWCWH5DVHQRF4HNWO4YW4TJE/
Air looks tepid at best, hanging on by its fingernails at worst.
AIR_2023-09-22_15-36-41.png
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/498573/airlines-and-auckland-airport-point-fingers-over-delays-and-queues-for-travellers I travel quite a bit and recon it's mostly air Nz... flights are always delayed or late, even the first ones for the day..
Seems to be a downgrade on 'expectations' seeing no guidance had been given previously ...from market close report
Air NZ has decided not to provide earnings guidance for the current financial year due to numerous uncertainties, releasing the news ahead of its annual meeting today.
Chair Therese Walsh cited softening corporate and domestic demand recently, while international markets remained steady.
Factors affecting the airline's demand and profitability include increased international competition, volatile fuel prices, a weaker Kiwi dollar, rising wages and higher airport charges.
The airline is closely monitoring oil prices, currency exchange rates, passenger demand and global engine issues. Walsh acknowledged the strong recovery in the previous fiscal year but noted the current period's unpredictability.
"Air New Zealand has warned of major headwinds including softer demand, higher fuel prices and increased competition, a month after returning to profit following three years of losses during the pandemic.
Chief executive Greg Foran told investors at its annual meeting in Wellington on Tuesday that it will look to navigate an uncertain macroeconomic environment over the current fiscal year as it walked away from providing any earnings guidance.
Headwinds include a weak New Zealand dollar, ongoing wage inflation, increased airport charges and intense competition on its lucrative North American routes from US carriers and Qantas, which also competes on Air New Zealand's flagship route between Auckland and New York.
"While more capacity is a good thing for markets that are currently undersupplied, the increasing cost of living may start to impact discretionary spend and with it, people's travel plans," Mr Foran said."
Huge increase in oil prices overnight and the very low currency...headwinds getting worse.
Those headwinds have flared up recently and becoming stronger (for the time being). At least they are leasing a B777 to replace the A320/321 NEO's undergoing engine maintenance.
Luxon took over AIR when it was in good shape .......performance (especially finically) got progressively worse before he decided to give up.
And now he could become PM ....... Not a good CEO (of a monopoly) and an even worse politician.
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 11, 2023, 09:27 AMLuxon took over AIR when it was in good shape .......performance (especially finically) got progressively worse before he decided to give up.
And now he could become PM ....... Not a good CEO (of a monopoly) and an even worse politician.
Come come W69 ....
Sp (adjusted for rights issue) was 86c when he took over as CEO in June 2012 and $2.71 when he left in June 2019 - up 215%.
NPAT was $71m in June 2012 and $270m in June 2019 when he handed over the reins - up 280%.
If that's your idea and measure of progressively worse performance, NZ could do with more of that!
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 11, 2023, 09:27 AMLuxon took over AIR when it was in good shape .......performance (especially finically) got progressively worse before he decided to give up.
And now he could become PM ....... Not a good CEO (of a monopoly) and an even worse politician.
Total rubbish and you know it.
but can they repeat that performance... think it might be a sell and buy some car yards... old bangers ...
H123 pbt was $299m .......H124 between $180m to $230m they say this morning
Included in that guidance 'is approximately $45 million of Covid related credits that are highly unlikely to be redeemed by the extended expiry date.'
So a windfall? I'm assuming released to profit....correct me if I'm wrong.
So it looks like Peak Profits are over .....first half pbt could be only half of last years
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/419825/404961.pdf
they will beat guidance right?
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 12, 2023, 08:58 AMH123 pbt was $299m .......H124 between $180m to $230m they say this morning
Included in that guidance 'is approximately $45 million of Covid related credits that are highly unlikely to be redeemed by the extended expiry date.'
So a windfall? I'm assuming released to profit....correct me if I'm wrong.
So it looks like Peak Profits are over .....first half pbt could be only half of last years
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/419825/404961.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/419825/404961.pdf)
If they've extended redemption out to 2026 how can they book them as profit as 2024?
Quote from: KW on Oct 12, 2023, 01:47 PMIf they've extended redemption out to 2026 how can they book them as profit as 2024?
Good question
Statement a bit confusing .......could also mean that $45m won't be redeemed so are going to refund them .......and this is an expense this year
Goodness knows
Still think I was one of the really lucky ones in 2020 .....had $20k in bookings (family) and in early stages of covid they cancelled a flight so I asked for a refund and got it back in 5 days
You're special mate and they know that ;)
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 11, 2023, 09:27 AMLuxon took over AIR when it was in good shape ......performance (especially finically) got progressively worse before he decided to give up.
Where is your source for this winner?
If its a balance sheet reserve account as a creditor it wont hit the P&L
We were meant to fly to Hobart last Sunday at 9am. Got a email at 10.30pm the night before to say our flight was canceled due to engine problems. Very last minute and for a lot of people unfortunately the first they heard was at the airport. Spent an hour on the phone trying to speak to someone but hung up in the end. Ended up going to Melbourne at 6am and then on to Hobart.
I think air nz has some serious issues. Customer service is non-existent. Lots of choice coming to NZ. They have had plenty of time to staff the call centre. We have met plenty of people who are like us very unhappy with air nz. Tired planes and choice coming. Im picking that profits down the track might not be so good and suggest taxpayers should not be funding the risk involved. Is it time for the new government to sell its share.
Suppose it's hard to put a $ value on these impacts ....but suppose it's all about trying to keep punters not getting too pissed off
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/421202/406611.pdf
"Due to engine availability as a result of the P&W maintenance issues, the airline will have up to four aircraft grounded at any one time".
That line jumped out at me. 4 out of 17 of that aircraft type is a lot. Another headwind for the airline to deal with.
like emirate business class in 2025 to europe?
My agent says she can get some hot prices if we book early...
The local agcny was down to 2 people in an upstrairs cubby hole...
now back to full staff levels and in a new ground level office..
"International air travel rose strongly in September, up +31% from a year ago with the Asia/Pacific region up +92%. Of course the base was very challenged. Compared with September 2019 however we still have some way to go to get back to those levels, but there is a recovery underway."
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125168/us-jobless-claims-rise-china-slips-deflation-ping-loses-apple-loses-air-travel
There was also this last week; shows some of the serious competition for AIR:
The best airlines to fly direct from New Zealand to USA
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new-zealand-to-usa-top-direct-flights-reviewed/N37IF2QOH5BYBGCAE23UMPTHLU/
Interview with:
Greg Foran's Air New Zealand flight plan | nzherald.co.nz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiQzhF0bihE
Around the 9 minute mark 'justification' that passenger prices could be higher but currently 'sucked up' by AIR.
Stopgap
"The jet couldn't come at a better time for the national carrier as it grapples with the fallout from engine issues.
The airline recently warned of two years of disruptions as it checked for possible microscopic cracks in Pratt & Whitney engines. The affected aircraft are 17 A320 and 321 NEOjets serving Australia, the Pacific Islands and domestic routes."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/133302575/why-does-this-air-new-zealand-plane-look-different
This is the oppo and why would you not want to fly this
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/experiences/301005819/flight-test-this-is-what-its-like-to-fly-on-the-best-business-class
dont they have new uniforms coming soon and new adverts?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=wp_hzrB_FI4
The wet lease continues on the Perth route.
Air New Zealand turns to Spanish airline Wamos Air once again for help
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/133438399/air-new-zealand-turns-to-spanish-airline-wamos-air-once-again-for-help
Still looking a bit tough for AIR .....H1 earnings about $200m v $399 last year
Includes that $45m of unclaimed refunds so really only about $150m .....assuming I interpret what they mean by include correctly
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/423376/409429.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 13, 2023, 08:59 AMStill looking a bit tough for AIR .....H1 earnings about $200m v $399 last year
Includes that $45m of unclaimed refunds so really only about $150m .....assuming I interpret what they mean by include correctly
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/423376/409429.pdf
Pretty miserable numbers considering that the oil price has tanked in recent months so their fuel cost will be considerably lower.
Looks like the revenge travel spend is all done and dusted, and corporations are looking very closely at their travel expense budgets. Can get a lot of meetings done remotely these days on Zoom or Microsoft teams to name just 2 platforms. Covid cases back up to nearly 8,000 a week probably not helping people's confidence to get into a skinny cramped aluminum tube with strangers breathing all over you.
Investors might also notice the massive increase in competition on all international routes, it's only time before one of them have another crack at the domestic market, which is still a rort for AirNZ. Qantas is closest with their new smaller airbirds doing the Tasman crossing, they'd be a candidate for domestic routes.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 13, 2023, 09:04 PMPretty miserable numbers considering that the oil price has tanked in recent months so their fuel cost will be considerably lower.
Looks like the revenge travel spend is all done and dusted, and corporations are looking very closely at their travel expense budgets. Can get a lot of meetings done remotely these days on Zoom or Microsoft teams to name just 2 platforms. Covid cases back up to nearly 8,000 a week probably not helping people's confidence to get into a skinny cramped aluminum tube with strangers breathing all over you.
It'd be a good time for the Government to reduce their exposure and flick off a chunk of their shares.
Free Wi-Fi is arriving on Air New Zealand planes but when should you use it?
Air New Zealand will be rolling out super-fast Starlink internet across domestic services from the end of next year, all for free.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/free-wifi-is-arriving-on-air-new-zealand-planes-but-when-should-you-use-it/7WKWDQIXQBBEFMEQTZQERHUIUY/
Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 13, 2023, 10:03 PMIt'd be a good time for the Government to reduce their exposure and flick off a chunk of their shares.
Maybe so. The irony wouldn't escape me that we now have the former CEO as PM.
Murphy's Law... Win world's safest airline award nek minnit. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/301036333/air-nz-flight-to-canada-forced-to-turn-back-midair-due-to-fault)
Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 07, 2024, 11:27 AMMurphy's Law... Win world's safest airline award nek minnit. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/301036333/air-nz-flight-to-canada-forced-to-turn-back-midair-due-to-fault)
Lucky thou not to have the Boeing Max issues. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/301036295/air-nz-says-boeing-737-max-not-in-its-fleet-as-us-orders-grounding-of-aircraft)
Pretty bad update from AIR
Essentially says we might breakeven in 2nd half of F24 if things don't get any worse.
Not much going right
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/426371/412776.pdf
Hey winner.....no comment that "she'll be right next half"? You often post that - I'm guessing it is often tongue in cheek. But it has got my wheels turning around over-optimistic forecasts by management. We should beware the BS and if you didn't post that this time, does that mean AIR didn't say as much? In other words, is there more pain to come beyond the current half?
Quote from: Ferg on Feb 19, 2024, 11:04 AMHey winner.....no comment that "she'll be right next half"? You often post that - I'm guessing it is often tongue in cheek. But it has got my wheels turning around over-optimistic forecasts by management. We should beware the BS and if you didn't post that this time, does that mean AIR didn't say as much? In other words, is there more pain to come beyond the current half?
They leaving the we'll be fine next year until when they make the results announcement
"The upcoming Interim financial result for the six months ended 31 December 2023 will be consistent with that 13 December 2023 guidance " .......wonder what consistent means in the context of the bottom end 180m to 230m
Quote from: Benji on Jun 26, 2022, 12:22 AMFly them not buy them is good advice.
Going to fly with them. Hope our day may come.
Earnings downgrade
full year profit before tax $200m say but really only about $100m
Just as well they kept $95m of credits not used ...fares paid and travel not taken for things out of punters control
I'd call it theft ...criminal ...and if a shareholder ashamed of my company
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/429878/417101.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 22, 2024, 09:02 AMEarnings downgrade
full year profit before tax $200m say but really only about $100m
Just as well they kept $95m of credits not used ...fares paid and travel not taken for things out of punters control
I'd call it theft ...criminal ...and if a shareholder ashamed of my company
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/429878/417101.pdf
Agree. Last on the list when we fly. Government should sell out and leave to private sector in my opinion.
Making $185m in the first half but only about $20-25m in the second half and that's only because they're keeping ~$50m of Covid credits this half. Hmmm.
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 22, 2024, 09:02 AMEarnings downgrade
full year profit before tax $200m say but really only about $100m
Just as well they kept $95m of credits not used ...fares paid and travel not taken for things out of punters control
I'd call it theft ...criminal ...and if a shareholder ashamed of my company
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/429878/417101.pdf
I note that according to market screener the analyst consensus for their 2024 EBIT used to be already prior to this announcement at $189.5m, i.e. AIR's announcement of 190m to 230m is still optimistic.
Lets see, how many down grades will follow :) ; Wasn't the rule of thumb 3 down grades? I think this one is number 2.
Competition to North America....great for consumers.....not so great for an airline use to having routes to themselves
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Apr 22, 2024, 12:27 PMCompetition to North America....great for consumers.....not so great for an airline use to having routes to themselves
Wondering whether we could have some more competition through Asia as well? I hate flying the NA route to Europe ... US airports and US immigration suck.
Singapore to europe stop over and go to Jewel?
https://www.jewelchangiairport.com/en.html
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 22, 2024, 09:02 AMEarnings downgrade
full year profit before tax $200m say but really only about $100m
Just as well they kept $95m of credits not used ...fares paid and travel not taken for things out of punters control
I'd call it theft ...criminal ...and if a shareholder ashamed of my company
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/429878/417101.pdf
For me good time to buy airline stocks is when there is a downgrade, oil prices stay high and trade share prices at very low prices. Remember qantas.Closely looking at this for any turnaround play?
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 22, 2024, 12:51 PMSingapore to europe stop over and go to Jewel?
https://www.jewelchangiairport.com/en.html
That's what we normally do - and likely keep doing (given we have some family to visit in Singapore as well). I just hope for a bit more competition on this route to keep the prices down. Last year the Singapore Airlines ticket was still pretty steep compared to pre-Covid, and Air NZ (just selling a code shared flight on Singapore Airlines) wanted still more money. Guess whose ticket I bought :) ;
And yes - transfer as well as entry in Singapore is really easy, entry in the US on the other hand (even if you just want to transfer) a nightmare - long queues, delays, very unfriendly staff - and in LA they even use dogs to herd the passengers. I try to avoid the unfriendly so called US of A, whenever possible. Even South America (Buenos Aires) is (much) better ...
A pity Aerolíneas Argentinas does not offer anymore reasonable connections between NZ and Europe ... they did 30 years ago.
Was packed up and sent back to europe first flight to Europe in 83. AIR NZ did silver service to Singapore....
Dutch airlines from there to Amsterdam... silver service and the DC10 and the 747 days...
An air line just bursting with profit and its IRISH... a name dear to ones heart...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/ryanair-posts-record-profit-as-passengers-soar-above-pre-covid-level.html
BUMMPY AS , wonder what altitude this was hit at ..
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/one-dead-as-singapore-airlines-flight-encounters-severe-turbulence.html
I am sure this will do wonders for reliability of the aircrafts engines and bring ticket prices down https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/chinese-takeaway-recycled-cooking-oil-from-china-to-power-air-new-zealand-flights/4SXKQELNPFGZRNRZKXQ3TGLFKY/?lid=m8kc8idnjxc1
Quote from: Basil on Jun 26, 2024, 11:07 AMI am sure this will do wonders for reliability of the aircrafts engines and bring ticket prices down https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/chinese-takeaway-recycled-cooking-oil-from-china-to-power-air-new-zealand-flights/4SXKQELNPFGZRNRZKXQ3TGLFKY/?lid=m8kc8idnjxc1
From that article -
Overnight German airline Lufthansa announced it would charge up to $125 more a ticket to help pay for its Saf commitments. The fuel is up to three times as expensive as traditional jet fuel.
Pretty cool eh. Pay another $125 for your ticket and that's when Saf fuel makes up less than 1% of total consumption. Imagine what ticket prices will be when it gets to the 20% level. Pump that stuff that comes from China through those Rolls Royce engines...what could possibly go wrong 😉
Price gouging? You be the judge. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/350364004/air-new-zealand-explains-its-airfares-after-it-cost-almost-2000-fly-domestically
Quote from: Basil on Aug 03, 2024, 08:09 PMPrice gouging? You be the judge. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/350364004/air-new-zealand-explains-its-airfares-after-it-cost-almost-2000-fly-domestically
Yes it is. Years ago I used to live in Christchurch and traveled a lot to Auckland. The airfares were often $1300. My boss in Australia could not believe it.
It's time for the government to sell its holding. That aside was at the airport last week and was surprised to see Greg Foran helping with the bags at the bag drop area. He muttered something about fog.... Our Airnz flight to Fiji was 45m late departing and on Fiji time...
Bula, soak up the warmth mate, its bloody cold here.
I remember the days when Basil was all over AIR......Tough times now... and no guidance given for FY25.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437064
Summary
• Earnings before taxation of $222 million
• Net profit after taxation of $146 million
• Passenger revenue of $5.9 billion
• Liquidity of $1.5 billion
• Unimputed final dividend of 1.5 cents per share declared, resulting in total ordinary dividends of 3.5 cents per share for the year
Air New Zealand today announced earnings before taxation for the 2024 financial year of $222 million compared to $574 million for the same period last year. This was an expected reduction on the prior year, when the airline recorded one of its highest ever results following the reopening of New Zealand's border. Net profit after taxation was $146 million.
While Air New Zealand reported a solid first half result, the second half of the financial year proved increasingly challenging as the impact of operational and economic headwinds became more pronounced....
.....Air New Zealand expects these trading conditions to remain similar through the first half of the 2025 financial year. Given the ongoing uncertainty, the airline is not providing guidance at this time.
Quote from: Left Field on Aug 29, 2024, 08:57 AMI remember the days when Basil was all over AIR
Those were the days it was worth investing in. Made good coin but its far too much hard work to make money form this now.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 29, 2024, 10:15 AMThose were the days it was worth investing in. Made good coin but its far too much hard work to make money form this now.
I recall differently.....
In posts on the other channel you admitted to making a loss...."taking a hit.... taking it on the chin" were the words I recall.
Anyway it is all there on the AIR thread on the other channel for others to read.
You piqued my interest, so I went back on the website and added it up over the years. Net realized profit of $31,469 and net dividend income of $20,409 during my time as an AIR holder, total $51,878. Not a huge amount by any means but not chump change either. Not enough reward for the time and capital invested, that's for sure and that's why I have given up on this company.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 30, 2024, 06:36 PMYou piqued my interest, so I went back on the website and added it up over the years. Net realized profit of $31,469 and net dividend income of $20,409 during my time as an AIR holder, total $51,878. Not a huge amount by any means but not chump change either. Not enough reward for the time and capital invested, that's for sure and that's why I have given up on this company.
You could buy 95,000 share on Monday and call them 'free ones' lol
And you'd get $1,425 dividend ina months time.
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 30, 2024, 06:50 PMYou could buy 95,000 share on Monday and call them 'free ones' lol
And you'd get $1,425 dividend ina months time.
Just show me where to sign lol
Apparently AIR on a mission to piss off as many customers as possible
I've head changes to loyalty programs a mess and then they a lot of website changes which was a shambles and now they've decidedly changed to update their booking engine and the new layout apparently is truly terrible.
Maybe doing their best to stop you booking flights on dodgy planes that catch fire.
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 04, 2024, 03:46 PMMaybe doing their best to stop you booking flights on dodgy planes that catch fire.
Added a lot more anxiety to the usual levels of high anxiety landing at Wellington that's for sure !
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/emf21afWoZE
the real economy reflected in the numbers?
or has ZOOM and Teams kicked in to hard land this stock?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/all-the-headwinds-impacting-air-new-zealands-profitability/SMV7CYKNBVBUPAYEAXMD7A6CUU/
or will the little travelers find a way to get out of the office again...
and as you all know many young family and friends of yours will have there young champions in places in US universities....
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/economic-refugees-flee-from-new-zealand-as-cost-of-living-crisis-deepens.html
Hard landing coming. Lower oil prices might provide a cushion. Digital platforms for business and team meetings now widely accepted and adopted post Covid.
"Despite growing worries about brain drain and a loss of skilled workers, there is little that New Zealand can do in the short term to improve its economic conditions, according to Eaqub.
"I think [ the economy] is going to get worse before it gets better," he said, partially attributing blame to a number of New Zealand's post-Covid policy moves, such as high interest rates, that have restricted consumer and business spending."
oh dear did they crash the country?
Maddy has a good chat with Greg Foran who seems quite frustrated.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/inside-air-new-zealands-hangar-engine-issues-and-international-competition/ILUTCTJLPFE7HA4H5OKLJUM5HM/
the dividends tell the story of global inflation and also NZ economy?
Ai review to come will publish... may not be accurate.. what does MR AI have to say..
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/882e20e5-194f-4e11-9433-877eaf14e7ec
Air New Zealand's operational reality reveals the true depth of NZ's economic weakness, and suggests professional GDP recovery forecasts may be optimistic:
What AIR's Results Actually Show:
Domestic Demand Collapse:
Government travel "particularly soft" (public sector cuts biting hard)
Corporate bookings only showing "early signs" of improvement (businesses still cautious)
Need to raise fares 5% despite weak demand (pricing into recession = desperation)
Domestic revenue under severe pressure
Real Economy Indicators:
Revenue growth: +0.15% (essentially flat in nominal terms = real decline with 3% inflation)
Had to cut 4% capacity due to engine issues, yet couldn't fill remaining seats
Load factors under pressure despite reduced supply
"Subdued domestic demand" mentioned repeatedly in guidance
GDP vs Reality Gap:
MeasureOfficial GDPAIR Reality Check2024+0.5%Revenue +0.15%, profit -14%2025 Q2-0.9%"Soft domestic market"2026 Forecast+1.7%H1 earnings ≤$34m (vs $155m H1 2025)
Why AIR is a Better Indicator:
Real-time: Airlines feel demand shifts immediately (forward bookings = leading indicator)
Discretionary spending: Travel is first thing cut in downturn
Business barometer: Corporate travel reflects business confidence
Government proxy: Public sector travel shows fiscal reality
Consumer sentiment: Leisure travel reveals household finances
The Discrepancy:
RBNZ projects recovery to 2.3% growth by 2026, but AIR's H1 FY2026 guidance (earnings similar to or less than $34m) suggests:
Consumer pullback continuing
No business spending recovery
Government austerity intensifying
Recession potentially deepening
Conclusion: AIR's ~50% earnings collapse from H1 2025 ($155m) to H1 2026 (≤$34m) suggests NZ's economic reality is materially worse than RBNZ's baseline forecasts. The professional economists may be underestimating recession depth and overestimating recovery speed.
This is why the Bear Case scenario ($0.52-0.68) has meaningful probability.
Impact of Engine problems.
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/666887f8-01ee-44b4-9d81-23e70b3021fc
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/575151/sharesies-platform-reports-record-turnover
One of sharsies customers favorite picks. Interesting article in the Headliner investment newsletter recently. HUGE problems with engines and aircraft out of service and those issues are not set to be rectified anytime soon.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 07, 2025, 12:10 PMhttps://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/575151/sharesies-platform-reports-record-turnover
One of sharsies customers favorite picks. Interesting article in the Headliner investment newsletter recently. HUGE problems with engines and aircraft out of service and those issues are not set to be rectified anytime soon.
Does not surprise me in the least that it's a top Sharesies pick.
The engines issue is largely outside their control. However Foran made the decision during lockdowns to park the planes in the desert and have mass layoffs and not answer the phone or communicate with customers. They were dishonest in the handling of refunds and got caught. This has cost them a lot of loyal customers.
They droped the ball big time unlike some other airlines who used the time to modernise their fleets. There is a lot of competition that offer a superior experience with in some cases better prices. When you take out the fact that they are largely surviving on customers pre flight cash, how solvent is it.
In my opinion the government should sell out. The sooner the better.
Ouch for holders.....significant downgrade
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/461180
Outlook
Taking the above factors into account, Air New Zealand now expects a loss before taxation for the first half of the 2026 financial year in the range of $30 million to $55 million. This assumes an average jet fuel price of US$85 per barrel for the period. The airline cautions against extrapolating first-half guidance across the full year, noting that additional capacity growth is planned for the second half. As a result, traditional comparisons between first- and second-half performance may be less indicative of full-year trends for the 2026 financial year.
Just been listening to the new ceo on the wireless. Made the comment that in hindsight was not a good move making a lot of the skilled staff redundant during covid. He gave the example of engineers who take 6 years to train. There is a travel boom with many of Air NZ'S competitor's making substantial profits. Air NZ have a lot of work to do to regain customers. Thought the new ceo sounded good, time will tell.
Craigs reckon AIR set to lose approximately $427m this financial year !
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/airlines/craigs-forecasts-air-nz-will-lose-about-665-million-by-mid-2027/premium/KZO5NMU72ZB6HC6HWA63AVTSIA/
Quote from: Basil on May 05, 2026, 03:40 PMCraigs reckon AIR set to lose approximately $427m this financial year !
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/airlines/craigs-forecasts-air-nz-will-lose-about-665-million-by-mid-2027/premium/KZO5NMU72ZB6HC6HWA63AVTSIA/
another bailout? :-\