Hi everyone I thought it was a good idea to start a thread ahead of the general election.
For me the possibility of having a Labour, Green, Moari party coalition government is somewhat frightening as the combination of a lack of depth in cabinet and ideologies that just don't stack up will I suspect be very bad for the share market
I suspect under the above coalition there is a very good chance of a capital gains tax and or wealth tax to be implemented
Quote from: snapiti on May 15, 2023, 09:05 AMHi everyone I thought it was a good idea to start a thread ahead of the general election.
For me the possibility of having a Labour, Green, Moari party coalition government is somewhat frightening as the combination of a lack of depth in cabinet and ideologies that just don't stack up will I suspect be very bad for the share market
I suspect under the above coalition there is a very good chance of a capital gains tax and or wealth tax to be implemented
You are right - there are a number of horror scenarios to consider when we go into the next election:
Having a government of xenophobes and racists implementing the rule of one race over the other is only one potential (and clearly highly undesirable) outcome.
On the other hand we might end up with a bunch of gun lovers, conspiracy theorists and religious deluded people following some self appointed bishop running the show, which would be highly undesirable as well - and lets face it, Nationals talent pool does not seem to be that deep either with non decisive Luxon apparently the best they can muster.
I guess, it took him already ages to clarify his stance on working with the Maori party in its current shape and form (yes, maybe, no, perhaps, ....), i.e. how long will it need to make a decision when something not obvious is on his plate to decide?
Nationals candidate selection process is as well still a worry - this the people we want to run our next parliament?
Whatever it will be - the common ground with the golden middle in it seems to get smaller and smaller ... interesting times to come for sure :)
It appears while Labour works hard to lose this election while National tries hard to keep them in power.
This could be fun to watch, if it wouldn't be us who need to face the consequences and pay the bills afterwards ...
I would rather keep political posts off the NZX50 investing thread.... thanks.
Quote from: Left Field on May 15, 2023, 11:03 AMI would rather keep political posts off the NZX50 investing thread.... thanks.
Fair enough, maybe I was a bit too generic - take your point - though it is a grey zone.
There is however no doubt that the outcome of the next election might have a significant impact on many NZX50 - companies.
Where would you like to discuss the impact of e.g. a proposed wealth tax on residential property and REITS? Where would you like to discuss e.g. the significant impact the ongoing stop and go of our immigration policies or the ups and down of political shackles thrown on our tourism sector? Where would you like to discuss the impact of climate policies (or the lack thereof) on our companies and political decisions of how to share the load? There are clearly huge ramifications for many businesses depending on political decisions to come.
I can understand why people don't want general political discussion on company specific threads (unless they are relevant for this specific company) .... but I think if there is a political thread popping up under NZX and you are not interested in the political ramifications on your investments ... why don't you just ignore the thread?
Quote from: Left Field on May 15, 2023, 11:03 AMI would rather keep political posts off the NZX50 investing thread.... thanks.
I disagree entirely and believe the up coming election may turn out to be extremely relevant to NZX 50 investors given there is a good chance the country will be
in the hands of already proven incompetence, then add minority idealism it is somewhat naive to think it will not have a major effect on NZX50 investors
I think this can stay on this board so long as you are discussing specific policies/plausible ideas and how they could impact specific companies or sectors on the NZX. If it gets off track I will move it to general news.
when was the last time something got listed on the NZX that did not turn out to be a bag of stale chips... or something similar...
oh right that was "Your Food Order" or "Puke bag"..
your almost telling us its a DOOMSDAY event ... Winner() will have to come and remind everyone it will all turn out ok in the end?
Like always... else snapiti (what does that stand for anyone?, You know like Hang man "Baby on Board") could be right....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qh3fSCT0a4
not a doomsday event, more a slow train wreck for NZX 50 investors me thinks, my prediction is the NZX50 losses 20% in the 12 months following a Labour,Greens, Moari party coalition due to poor policies put in place based on ideologies that have side effects
anyone given much thought to the Greens election pitch on taxes.
Very bad for the wealthy, very bad for all assets held in a trust and very bad for the share market as they want corporates tax to go to 33%
Quote from: snapiti on Jun 12, 2023, 05:22 PManyone given much thought to the Greens election pitch on taxes.
Very bad for the wealthy, very bad for all assets held in a trust and very bad for the share market as they want corporates tax to go to 33%
Yes, will be very very bad if they get in. Although I guess we should turn our minds to how to take advantage if they do seem likely to get in. Sharemarket retreat, capital flight?
I think they have pretty much shot themselves and the labour party in the face with this tax plan. Not because a large number of voters wouldn't like to see the rich get eaten but because they (the watermelons) have proposed a 1.5% tax on all trust assets without a threshold. Lots of Ma's and Pa's with their houses and rental properties in trust will not like those punitive taxes applying to them. The 45% rate above $180K won't be popular either.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/opinion-sir-ian-taylor-an-open-letter-to-chloe-swarbrick-on-wealth-tax/ODLKEE7T7BDYRL23HSJ3FE6U4Y/ Paywalled.
Sir Ian Taylor opines on this. Well worth a read and the comments section as well.
Quote from: Poet on Jun 12, 2023, 05:54 PMYes, will be very very bad if they get in. Although I guess we should turn our minds to how to take advantage if they do seem likely to get in. Sharemarket retreat, capital flight?
I think they have pretty much shot themselves and the labour party in the face with this tax plan. Not because a large number of voters wouldn't like to see the rich get eaten but because they (the watermelons) have proposed a 1.5% tax on all trust assets without a threshold. Lots of Ma's and Pa's with their houses and rental properties in trust will not like those punitive taxes applying to them. The 45% rate above $180K won't be popular either.
There is still a lot of people that this will appeal too. Will be interesting to see what Labour will do.
Quote from: Poet on Jun 12, 2023, 05:54 PMYes, will be very very bad if they get in. Although I guess we should turn our minds to how to take advantage if they do seem likely to get in. Sharemarket retreat, capital flight?
I think they have pretty much shot themselves and the labour party in the face with this tax plan. Not because a large number of voters wouldn't like to see the rich get eaten but because they (the watermelons) have proposed a 1.5% tax on all trust assets without a threshold. Lots of Ma's and Pa's with their houses and rental properties in trust will not like those punitive taxes applying to them. The 45% rate above $180K won't be popular either.
It's a number game via sending the right message to the right voters.
Certainly will be putting on hold my share market investment plans till this is all sorted.
I think National are shooting themselves in the foot at the moment....I don't understand why national are openly touting the farming vote when they have it anyway, that's not sending the right message to the right voters at all......quite the opposite I would have thought
Quote from: Basil on Jun 12, 2023, 06:09 PMhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/opinion-sir-ian-taylor-an-open-letter-to-chloe-swarbrick-on-wealth-tax/ODLKEE7T7BDYRL23HSJ3FE6U4Y/ Paywalled.
Sir Ian Taylor opines on this. Well worth a read and the comments section as well.
behind paywall Mr Basil
Quote from: snapiti on Jun 12, 2023, 06:30 PMbehind paywall Mr Basil
I know mate but copyright and all that.
Quote from: Shareguy on Jun 12, 2023, 06:27 PMThere is still a lot of people that this will appeal too. Will be interesting to see what Labour will do.
what do you mean by "appeal"
Pretty sure the Greens tax policy will see extra donations going into Act and National accounts
There's a lot of selfish voters around Snapper who vote in a way that they perceive is in the best interest of their own wallet. Robin Hood was popular because he stole from the rich and gave to the poor. There will always be more poor people than rich people.
This is true and this pretty stark scene comes to mind...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtFyP0qy9XU
Quote from: Basil on Jun 12, 2023, 06:36 PMThere's a lot of selfish voters around Snapper who vote in a way that they perceive is in the best interest of their own wallet. Robin Hood was popular because he stole from the rich and gave to the poor. There will always be more poor people than rich people.
Totally agree with this....that being said there is a very good chance this election we will have a LABOUR GREEN government.
Quote from: snapiti on Jun 12, 2023, 07:06 PMTotally agree with this....that being said there is a very good chance this election we will have a LABOUR GREEN government.
A chance for sure but not a very good chance, chance they are nearing the end of their time in power and the winds of change have started blowing.
NZX pushing for change and notice this GOVT has had 2 terms to do something for markets and ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/capital-markets-mark-peterson-election-2023-nzxs-must-do-list-time-to-revisit-rules-of-the-game/DA4U7Z5QD5BIJIW2OPBJJRKGIQ/
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 16, 2023, 10:28 PMNZX pushing for change and notice this GOVT has had 2 terms to do something for markets and ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/capital-markets-mark-peterson-election-2023-nzxs-must-do-list-time-to-revisit-rules-of-the-game/DA4U7Z5QD5BIJIW2OPBJJRKGIQ/
Big yawn.
NZX is a gutted entity with no clue on how to revitalise a shrinking exchange.
That can be attributed to the feather nesting and profiteering under Mark Weldon who completely abused the monopolistic nature of NZX by hiking up charges on all fronts while reducing services.
In the process, he and supporting shareholders (like Forbar and Milford) made huge gains in the short term but destroyed the long term future of NZX and along with that, NZ's capital market vibrancy.
NZX can start to recover by reducing charges and apologising for the blatant profiteering still very much in evidence.
Same can be said for the Banking industry with no innovation in developing the Transaction API HUBS.
NZX needs to reduce costs and stock brokers like DB broking Jardens need to completely upgrade the transaction services and reporting.
Most of the development will have been in security on the old platforms.
No third party follow on services are provided for certificated data feeds with a reasonable cost from the brokers or the NZX.
The data feed costs are very very high.
The banks offering nothing much.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 17, 2023, 08:54 AMNZX needs to reduce costs
No third party follow on services are provided for certificated data feeds with a reasonable cost from the brokers or the NZX.
The data feed costs are very very high.
That is the reason why Interactive Brokers, one of the biggest non-wall st bank broking platforms in the world offers access to 76 global exchanges, and the NZX is not one of them. Even the biggest retail platform in Australia (Commonwealth Securities) does not offer access to NZX stocks, and it owns ASB! If you block investors from trading on an exchange, how on earth do you expect to improve liquidity and support for companies who want to list on it? Zero wonder as to why most of them end up decamping to the ASX if they want to grow.
Quote from: KW on Jun 17, 2023, 12:16 PMThat is the reason why Interactive Brokers, one of the biggest non-wall st bank broking platforms in the world offers access to 76 global exchanges, and the NZX is not one of them. Even the biggest retail platform in Australia (Commonwealth Securities) does not offer access to NZX stocks, and it owns ASB! If you block investors from trading on an exchange, how on earth do you expect to improve liquidity and support for companies who want to list on it? Zero wonder as to why most of them end up decamping to the ASX if they want to grow.
Explaining as well why only dogs with fleas like MFB lists on NZX.
For all its faults the NZX is still a relatively clean market compared to overseas markets in terms of trading manipulation although it is deteriorating, the ASX regulators turn a blind eye to blatant/obvious manipulation of stocks like A2 which has been seriously controlled by Insto bot trading for a long time now, no humans need apply and retail punters are just plebs in the game.
Quote from: Breezy on Jun 18, 2023, 08:45 AMFor all its faults the NZX is still a relatively clean market compared to overseas markets in terms of trading manipulation although it is deteriorating, the ASX regulators turn a blind eye to blatant/obvious manipulation of stocks like A2 which has been seriously controlled by Insto bot trading for a long time now, no humans need apply and retail punters are just plebs in the game.
Clean?
The MFB IPO is the best example of just how unclean the NZX is and why it is a regressing and declining exchange.
Quote from: Teitei on Jun 18, 2023, 10:43 AMClean?
The MFB IPO is the best example of just how unclean the NZX is and why it is a regressing and declining exchange.
I said relatively clean by comparison overall which it is, dual listed stocks like A2 and FPH have become heavily manipulated over the last few years since they become dual listed and I have many thousands of hours of close observation and involement to prove it.
Quote from: Breezy on Jun 18, 2023, 11:04 AMI said relatively clean by comparison overall which it is, dual listed stocks like A2 and FPH have become heavily manipulated over the last few years since they become dual listed and I have many thousands of hours of close observation and involement to prove it.
In which case you must report it to the ASX, and CC to AFR.
Quote from: Teitei on Jun 18, 2023, 11:14 AMIn which case you must report it to the ASX, and CC to AFR.
There are different rules for the plebs and Instos, its all about the money and they turn a blind eye to the latter no matter who reports it and plenty have.
Another term by a Labour led coalition, especially accompanied by an ever-emboldened Māori party and its separatist divisive policies would be incredibly bad for economic growth in my opinion which would ultimately be reflected in a lot of companies share prices. In Labour's second term we have seen the NZX50 retreat from ~ 13,800 at the start of 2021 to 11,800 now, a decline of 14.5%, (25% in real inflation adjusted terms), and that's the gross index inclusive of all dividends in the last two and a half years! Could that or even worse happen again if they get a third term, yes, I think there's the very real prospect of that.
Reflecting back on the IPO's I can remember in recent years, (I am sure there are some I have overlooked), putting money into any IPO seems like an almost certain recipe to lose money. In no particular order, MFB has digested ~ 90% of investors capital, the wheels have come off 2 Cheap cars which with hindsight was priced at Rolly Royce level's and has destroyed ~ 80% of investors' funds, MPG has shattered more than 90% of investors capital, Winton property has tanked by more than half, Evolve destroyed somewhere around 90% of its value, Harmoney has been any anything but a harmonious experience for investors and anyone originally investing is now down over 90% after they delisted from the NZX in late 2022 and even OCA despite extensive promotion by some people as a growth stock is trading below its IPO price and has substantially underperformed the NZX50 index over the last 6 years, however a notably better performance than any of the other flea ridden mutts. Forgive me if my memory fails me a bit, but have there been any IPO success stories at all in recent years?
Basically, the rule of thumb going forward with all future NZX IPO listings, in my opinion, is ignore all the listing B.S., let the shares find their real value and then have a look at their track record after a few years and then reassess the situation.
Quote from: KW on Jun 17, 2023, 12:16 PMThat is the reason why Interactive Brokers, one of the biggest non-wall st bank broking platforms in the world offers access to 76 global exchanges, and the NZX is not one of them. Even the biggest retail platform in Australia (Commonwealth Securities) does not offer access to NZX stocks, and it owns ASB! If you block investors from trading on an exchange, how on earth do you expect to improve liquidity and support for companies who want to list on it? Zero wonder as to why most of them end up decamping to the ASX if they want to grow.
Good post. Thus is quite telling.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521912/investors-slumber-as-stocks-move-with-no-apparent-rhyme-nor-reason.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+Jun+2023
Markets stuck in a directionless malaise until the election ?
Feels that way to me.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 27, 2023, 08:10 PMhttps://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521912/investors-slumber-as-stocks-move-with-no-apparent-rhyme-nor-reason.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+Jun+2023
Markets stuck in a directionless malaise until the election ?
Feels that way to me.
I don't know whether it's true and frankly I don't care much either.
Short term focus around politics and government does move markets, but it doesn't (much) affect fundamental value or longer term investor opportunity.
All I see is ... finally ... after many years, we have a market return to (perception of) 'value' and regardless of what we individually decide value is, there is under-valued to be taken advantage of. Some will under-value by the market and that's even better if we see value others don't, for investors.
Opportunity for investing comes in many disguises, the least frequent of those however is the one when the market considers everything is screwed.
It's been a long time coming. Those who can see and respond to it, well, they'll be ones laughing in the not too distant future.
Choose wisely.
NZ market supported by earning in other currencies...
Likely that Chippie wont want to scare the horses and he will be busy with the other parties...trying to placate them while stopping capital flight.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stock-takes-why-are-international-markets-performing-so-much-better-than-new-zealand-australia/3XFPAJ6SMRARRDENLY53DTNHCE/
The imbalanced economy...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/300904584/current-account-deficits-the-most-accurate-representation-of-the-countrys-imbalanced-economy
mission impossible as destroying capital is the intent of the greens and some other parties to weaken the colonial establishment...
Destroy democracy and implement central control... so much easier when you can rule by decree.
I see things very differently to you Buzz as articulated in the first paragraph of post #30 above.
Another 3 years of divisiveness and ideological programs and to hell with the economic ramifications would be a genuine headwind for the economy and for most companies in N.Z. Sure, there is always value to be found but it becomes harder work with economic headwinds.
I guess it depends on your definition of the not-too-distant future. I foresee pretty modest prospects for the NZX50 to increase much in 2023.
That said I am generally investing on a "look through the current economic malaise to the other side" basis, but it would be nice if we had central government policies that promote economic growth when we get there rather than reverse racism, divisiveness and ideological nonsense currently being rammed down our throats.
P.S. I'm certainly not the only one taking a very sober view of economic prospects for the rest of 2023, at least, and who thinks the election outcome is very important. https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/122603/david-hargreaves-casts-his-mind-forward-over-next-six-months-and-outlines
Quote from: Basil on Jun 28, 2023, 10:39 AMI see things very differently to you Buzz as articulated in the first paragraph of post #30 above.
Another 3 years of divisiveness and ideological programs and to hell with the economic ramifications would be a genuine headwind for the economy and for most companies in N.Z. Sure, there is always value to be found but it becomes harder work with economic headwinds.
I guess it depends on your definition of the not-too-distant future. I foresee pretty modest prospects for the NZX50 to increase much in 2023.
That said I am generally investing on a "look through the current economic malaise to the other side" basis, but it would be nice if we had central government policies that promote economic growth when we get there rather than reverse racism, divisiveness and ideological nonsense currently being rammed down our throats.
P.S. I'm certainly not the only one taking a very sober view of economic prospects for the rest of 2023, at least, and who thinks the election outcome is very important. https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/122603/david-hargreaves-casts-his-mind-forward-over-next-six-months-and-outlines
Currently one can regurgitate much of the ideology being rammed down one throat however the up coming election could well see small party radical ideologies coming to being.....that will mean what they are pushing down your throat you have to digest and it comes out as number 2's.
Normally I would agree with you about seeing through economic malaise however the political climate in NZ (coming election going to be close) means I for one are happy to be on the sidelines for now
Quote from: Basil on Jun 18, 2023, 03:03 PMAnother term by a Labour led coalition, especially accompanied by an ever-emboldened Māori party and its separatist divisive policies would be incredibly bad for economic growth in my opinion which would ultimately be reflected in a lot of companies share prices. In Labour's second term we have seen the NZX50 retreat from ~ 13,800 at the start of 2021 to 11,800 now, a decline of 14.5%, (25% in real inflation adjusted terms), and that's the gross index inclusive of all dividends in the last two and a half years! Could that or even worse happen again if they get a third term, yes, I think there's the very real prospect of that.
Reflecting back on the IPO's I can remember in recent years, (I am sure there are some I have overlooked), putting money into any IPO seems like an almost certain recipe to lose money. In no particular order, MFB has digested ~ 90% of investors capital, the wheels have come off 2 Cheap cars which with hindsight was priced at Rolly Royce level's and has destroyed ~ 80% of investors' funds, MPG has shattered more than 90% of investors capital, Winton property has tanked by more than half, Evolve destroyed somewhere around 90% of its value, Harmoney has been any anything but a harmonious experience for investors and anyone originally investing is now down over 90% after they delisted from the NZX in late 2022 and even OCA despite extensive promotion by some people as a growth stock is trading below its IPO price and has substantially underperformed the NZX50 index over the last 6 years, however a notably better performance than any of the other flea ridden mutts. Forgive me if my memory fails me a bit, but have there been any IPO success stories at all in recent years?
Basically, the rule of thumb going forward with all future NZX IPO listings, in my opinion, is ignore all the listing B.S., let the shares find their real value and then have a look at their track record after a few years and then reassess the situation.
Add RAD to that list of IPO's where investors have been severely punished.
and what is the cash position of SHAZ platform.... are they making money or are they going to have to lay off staff ...
no wonder the com props like GMT are still sky high in value as people retrench into bricks and steel...in the north island.
its a No growth government for sure and they cant wait to raise tax rates on companies?
Tax Trusts with homes in them?
Only Chippie can hold the tide back...
Quote from: Basil on Jun 29, 2023, 06:57 PMAdd RAD to that list of IPO's where investors have been severely punished.
RAD was never an 'investment', imo. Poor capital management is just another signal. Now they're in danger of failing the 'going concern' audit requirement, a distressed seller trying to meet their banker's edict to pay back their debt, and soon.