StockTalk

Can't not have MFB on the forum - can we ?

The recent 4c dividend gobbled up greedily - SP 80c

Now what - the SP continuing slide down to 50c/60c ? :)

After all, those tougher times which Robbo now has had to admit to are on us,
and inflationary surges will find their way into elements of all costs
spiralling around and around to land on the end consumer's dinner plate

The $350 hand out will be well eaten up before it even lands by increased costs.

Quote from: nztx on Jun 25, 2022, 02:56 PMCan't not have MFB on the forum - can we ?

The recent 4c dividend gobbled up greedily - SP 80c

Now what - the SP continuing slide down to 50c/60c ? :)

After all, those tougher times which Robbo now has had to admit to are on us,
and inflationary surges will find their way into elements of all costs
spiralling around and around to land on the end consumer's dinner plate

The $350 hand out will be well eaten up before it even lands by increased costs.

Robbo will be buying 100,000's of MFB bags a week next year when times get really tough and the polls are bleak .

Threatening to go to new all time lows again

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 03, 2022, 03:58 PMThreatening to go to new all time lows again

Might need a prettier face on the Annual report

Would be really helpful if MFB were ever trying to expand into Australia if they could get Margot Robbie on board as a customer and brand ambasador.
Even better if she fronts the annual report.

Crikey she could even make those $1 tins of baked beans you love look edible...lol.

Quote from: nztx on Jun 25, 2022, 02:56 PM...

The $350 hand out will be well eaten smoked up before it even lands by increased costs.

there, fixed it for ya

I used to be the biggest knocker of this stock but the p e the divi profit etc are all looking good now with the deflated sp !!.
 Definitely replace Nadia with that Margot Robbie & we have a winner winner foodbag dinner   

Quote from: Auto Rower on Aug 04, 2022, 09:51 AMI used to be the biggest knocker of this stock but the p e the divi profit etc are all looking good now with the deflated sp !!.   

Yup, I'm in for that reason.  The yield is phenomenal.

Very seldom have I seen a chart with such a consistent downtrending slope ever since it listed.
Its very close to a straight line at the same angle downward.  Quite an impressive thing for those who are short !

There is no TA encouragement whatsoever to buy now, another fresh all time low today.
There is no real way to know how the current record food prices will affect their margins going forward, or how demand might behave as we move further through this pandemic.

There is such little history with dividends there's no way to be sure they're sustainable going forward.
None of this will worry young gung ho investors because they think that this time its different.

At least the dividends will slightly reduce the capital losses so I suppose that's something.

 

Quote from: Whacc on Aug 04, 2022, 08:17 PMYup, I'm in for that reason.  The yield is phenomenal.

I've never understood the approach of chasing high yield on a depreciating SP. Make 9% divi - nice!. Lose 20% on SP - not so nice

Quote from: Minimoke on Aug 04, 2022, 09:27 PMI've never understood the approach of chasing high yield on a depreciating SP. Make 9% divi - nice!. Lose 20% on SP - not so nice

Yeah, I don't do it often at all/ever.

The question is whether it will continue to depreciate?
I don't think so for MFB. My view is that as long as it keeps paying this dividend it'll fluctuate between this level and ~$0.90.

Sure, it was IPO'd at dumb money pricing.  I didn't touch it there. 
Only picked some up at $0.80 before the last result announcement.  To management's credit they have done precisely what they said they were going to do at IPO - delivered the PFI.
I'm not going to argue the model isn't challenged, but they've shown they can do what they say.

What I don't understand is people who chase dividends after the announcement then sell.
I'll just quietly pick up some at this price, then when they announce an unchanged div and the fools will rush in again I'll quietly trim.

Quite a cool feature of this website is that as you are about to write a reply it tells you someone has just done so and stops you  posting similar replies .
 Totally agree with the consistent down trending chart since the I P O  ,This cannot continue unabated .

Thought this article  was interesting. Implies MFB might be doing ok. See the share price has come off lows, but still looks very cheap.

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/404905

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 10, 2022, 05:54 PMThought this article  was interesting. Implies MFB might go doing ok. See the share price has come off lows, but still looks very cheap.

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/404905

SP shoudlnt be used as a measure of value. From the article - which is pretty telling: "The survey found HelloFresh was the most commonly-used food service app, used by 33 per cent of Kiwis in the past 12 months (from 31 per cent previously). Uber Eats was the next most prominent at 31 per cent (unchanged) with My Food Bag coming in third at 20 per cent (from 17 per cent). The survey also found usage was up across several emerging food service brands with Menulog (10 per cent from seven per cent last year), Deliver Easy (eight per cent from six per cent previously) and foodpanda (four per cent from one per cent) the biggest gainers."

So what do we know
- food inflation is rampant. Making ingredient costs more expensive and risk shrinking margins.
- there is no moat. As expected other companies have come into this space. And more will continue to do so. Probably fluctuating over time. Marketing spend will need to increase to maintain market share
- Who packs My Food bags? There is a labour shortage and labour costs are going up as a consequence.
- inflation is rising. House values are decreasing. Dial in food is discretionary spend. When purse strings need to be tightened  service like this may be the first to go.

Would I touch MFB. No - too many risks for me.

SP shoudlnt be used as a measure of value. From the article - which is pretty telling: "The survey found HelloFresh was the most commonly-used food service app, used by 33 per cent of Kiwis in the past 12 months (from 31 per cent previously). Uber Eats was the next most prominent at 31 per cent (unchanged) with My Food Bag coming in third at 20 per cent (from 17 per cent). The survey also found usage was up across several emerging food service brands with Menulog (10 per cent from seven per cent last year), Deliver Easy (eight per cent from six per cent previously) and foodpanda (four per cent from one per cent) the biggest gainers."

 Although they are all suppliers of food, hello fresh & m f b are playing in a different league both aiming for the health conscious professional middle classes that are time poor .
The others are more food delivery
And the big difference is Nadia I have not looked into how profitable h f is but they sure do a hell of a lot of advertising to breech the Nadia moat

Interesting discussion and I hadn't considered differing segments within that market.

Is this a dividend yield trap?

It would take tremendous dividends to offset capital/SP losses in light of some of the headwinds being faced by MFB.  In particular MFB delivered cost savings to meet the IPO projections and it's questionable whether or not they are sustainable in light of rising food, freight and staff costs.  MFB prices would need to increase or portion sizes/service levels reduce to restore profitability which might test the "stickiness" of their segment of the market.  Interesting stuff and I am curious to see how this plays out.

I'm not a holder but I have a morbid curiosity.  There might be an unrealistic price at which I am interested ..... but not yet.

Quote from: Ferg on Aug 11, 2022, 07:01 PMInteresting discussion and I hadn't considered differing segments within that market.

Is this a dividend yield trap?

It would take tremendous dividends to offset capital/SP losses in light of some of the headwinds being faced by MFB.  In particular MFB delivered cost savings to meet the IPO projections and it's questionable whether or not they are sustainable in light of rising food, freight and staff costs.  MFB prices would need to increase or portion sizes/service levels reduce to restore profitability which might test the "stickiness" of their segment of the market.  Interesting stuff and I am curious to see how this plays out.

I'm not a holder but I have a morbid curiosity.  There might be an unrealistic price at which I am interested ..... but not yet.

There was a bloke who made the mistake of expressing a view that essentially having an attractive person fronting an IPO was a distraction from the fundamentals. I agree with him 100%. Be wary of the attractive looking dividend.

When the IPO came out I recall I bought out my bargepole.

Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 11, 2022, 07:15 PMThere was a bloke who made the mistake of expressing a view that essentially having an attractive person fronting an IPO was a distraction from the fundamentals. I agree with him 100%. Be wary of the attractive looking dividend.

When the IPO came out I recall I bought out my bargepole.

Agreed, agreed, agreed and agreed.  Absolutely no dispute from me with any of that.

I put up an analysis on another site warning to not touch it using other people's barge poles!  At the time I did not believe they would deliver on their cost savings but to their credit they did.  Although I note they have now aggregated some data to not provide the same level of detail that was disclosed during the IPO.  Typical CFO behaviour when something doesn't quite go to plan....you shift the measurement basis. As am I where I now think the cost savings achieved are not sustainable.  Maybe I am being chicken little but I still stand by my original work and my current position.

Absolutely on all those points Including the barge pole for a long time  ,but even though the sp has been hammered the profit is still there in this service .
 Plus the competitors will face all of the same difficulties outlined earlier inflation staffing etc maybe  mfb have suppliers tied in time will tell .
   

Quote from: Ferg on Aug 11, 2022, 07:01 PMInteresting discussion and I hadn't considered differing segments within that market.

Is this a dividend yield trap?

It would take tremendous dividends to offset capital/SP losses in light of some of the headwinds being faced by MFB.  In particular MFB delivered cost savings to meet the IPO projections and it's questionable whether or not they are sustainable in light of rising food, freight and staff costs.  MFB prices would need to increase or portion sizes/service levels reduce to restore profitability which might test the "stickiness" of their segment of the market.  Interesting stuff and I am curious to see how this plays out.

I'm not a holder but I have a morbid curiosity.  There might be an unrealistic price at which I am interested ..... but not yet.

My morbid curiousity '2 hour back of the envelope' modeling exercise wound up becoming something quite a bit larger. Ferg thank you for your research, I'll flick you my model tomorrow.

Agree it is absolutely a dividend yield trap. Financially I think it has performed admirably. Yes deliveries stepped up during covid but people don't appreciate the majority of the increase in earnings actually came from mostly from procurement efficiencies.  A wee bit of assembly and distribution efficiencies but the 2H FY22, particularly Q4, was hit hard by poor productivity, labour shortages, sickness, extra H&S kit, which set it back.  I think MFB did 'grow up' into an adult over the last few years - the procurement savings were all forecast ~1.5 years in advance and met, achieved after large external reviews, new ERP system put in place, replaced the existing operations manager, consultants hired, etc etc. Some of those gains will be permanent, but much of them could be competed away over time.  Plus, we will never know the nature of all these new contracts put in place - how long were they for, how many were absolute fixed price, what happens when the roll off, etc.  I think you'd be mad to assume as the brokers do that ingredient margins remain constant forever.

2H FY22 was actually phenomenal and driven (in part) by the new kitchen initiative. My BOE was it drove the majority of the step up in average order value and at better unit GP% economics.  It's a fantastic initiative, and will be an increasingly important incremental earner for the business, one that is not really well understood by the market (or even the analysts), but questionable how much value will ever be subcribed to it for a period of time, as ultimately linked to deliveries.

none the less the better 2H brings the cynic out of me. The company was desperate to meet prospectus forecast. They would have held back every single piece of spending they could have. They implemented a new STI/LTI/share scheme post balance date. They claim they stopped marketing in Q4 which saw a dip in acquired customers because they couldn't cope with covid outbreak in the march quarter. that might be true. but I reckon they also stopped marketing for new customers because it is actually loss making in the very short term. New customer acquisition is loss making for a period of time (3-8 months depending on how you allocated various marketing costs), but also critical to underpinning following periods.

I think the meal kit industry in aggregate revenue dollars earnt will grow meaningfully over the next 10 years, but hello fresh is clearly the momentum player. Bigger in terms of customers and revenue, smaller in terms of NPAT, its marketing spend is massive, but declining yoy as a % of sales. Meanwhile MFB's marketing spend is rising. at some point the two will converge and some sort of equilibrium eventuates.  Efficiencies will be competed away, and margins % margins decline.  There are still 2 other decent sized competitors lagging behind MFB and Hellofresh, will be interesting to see what becomes of them.

People might say based on LTM metrics or consensus estimates the business is cheap. It looks cheap on forecast consensus because the market does not believe the consensus. 3 brokers provide forecasts (only 2 into marketscreener), all 3 were either joint lead managers or manager, and they call them sell side analysts for a reason.

I think the market reasonably expects the business to go backwards for a few years. But with the downslope in SP while the business was performing well it will be interesting to see how the price reacts when/if the business actually starts releasing results going backwards.  The market obviously expects it, but could see some volatility when expectations become reality.

I think its a better business than most people expect, and probably perform a bit better than we expect it to. Sadly, I don't think it will ever be rewarded for that on its share price.  You cannot overstate how good MFB's cashflows are. This business could easily pay 100% NPAT in dividends. Low capex, negative working capital, good margins. There is zero reason other than policy and management conservatism why this business couldnt pay out 100% NPAT in dividends per year over the long term. But thats also part of the problem. Little barriers to entry. Here comes hellofresh and in 5 years bigger than MFB.  But at least at the top revenue line its a growing industry for sure.

My model has 5 scenarios - my most bullish case, is well below the consensus for the next 5 years.  My 'status quo' base case contains some pretty pessimistic assumptions. Increases in marketing, discounting, fixed costs, declines in margins, deliveries, etc. It spits a SP in the 70c range, declines and rebounds like a u shape and I think that's how the market perceives it, they are plausible and if one were doing a spreadsheet it would be the first assumption you'd pop in, so the market clearly operating as it should and MFB's SP deserves to be well down. I assume an 11% discount rate as well.  But I think in practice the business has quite a few levers it can pull and could walk over very low hurdle expectations from time to time, but the market won't value that for the time being.

For a few extra % return, on a business with such a wide range of plausible outcomes, the question is it worth it, or is better to stick that dosh into something like heartland which might give you a few % less yield but in 10 years time you know will have also appreciated well in capital value, whereas who knows with MFB.  If I won the lottery and had to put it in either MFB, heartland, some gentailer, etc, it wouldn't be MFB, regardless of the yield for this year

My disclosure: I had some capital to invest during this downturn. I set a very small % of it to MFB, because I like to be diversified, and want some yield. I wound up purchasing a third of my initial target allocation  at 77c, due to a lack of conviction.  If it surprises on the upside relative to my forecasts the next few years will lose no sleep, and if it eventuates, think I'll be able DCA into another few parcels at anti embarrassment pricing. and if my downside scenarios pan out, well, i went into it eyes open, but thankful a fraction of my portfolio.

Nice commentary FM and thanks very much for sharing.  Interesting comments around the halves and quarters.  I think you are right in that spending will have been culled (in particular marketing/advertising) to meet prospectus profitability.  Sometimes you can get away with that in the short term particularly with inefficient spend, but you don't want to self inflict any long term damage.  I did mention elsewhere the systems and processed needed to deliver what they do must be impressive, especially when you look at KPIs such as inventory turnover.  I have no doubt they are doing some fantastic things from an operational perspective but I don't see a moat or competitive advantage......yet.  Good luck to holders.

Quote from: Ferg on Aug 11, 2022, 10:52 PMNice commentary FM and thanks very much for sharing.  Interesting comments around the halves and quarters.  I think you are right in that spending will have been culled (in particular marketing/advertising) to meet prospectus profitability.  Sometimes you can get away with that in the short term particularly with inefficient spend, but you don't want to self inflict any long term damage.  I did mention elsewhere the systems and processed needed to deliver what they do must be impressive, especially when you look at KPIs such as inventory turnover.  I have no doubt they are doing some fantastic things from an operational perspective but I don't see a moat or competitive advantage......yet.  Good luck to holders.

From a purely financial perspective there is no moat to this industry. But perhaps from a psychological perspective the establishment of both MFB and Hellofresh presents one. They are both extremelely slick and play to their differentiated niches.  One has first mover advantage, strong brand attachment and spends incrementally less on new customers than others, and the other is the brash world wide with a mandate to grow even if highly inefficiently monster.  Both of world class apps, strong and improving buying power, logistics expertise, and now that at scale the ability to upgrade or downgrade meal options, change recipies, tack on extras. Those little bits at the end, are relatively easy for someone to do at scale and add good GP gains, but for someone that is new, is extremely hard and results in stock write offs.

I doubt Jane and Joe fantastic cook will start up a MFB V2, too hard, industry is a been there done that, the monsters are growing etc.  Marley Spoon or Blue Apron? Doubt it, they have enough troubles as it is. Woop is local and private, stable search frequencies on similarweb and google trends so losing share but probably running steady.  You have Farro Fresh, who Waterman Capital recently invested into (after exiting most of their stake in MFB), and they do a little bit of premium delivery kit stuff in auckland only, so that is something to watch. Some competition there and unpleasant behaviour from waterman for that blantant conflict of interest (on board of both companies at some time for a while).  Then you have supermarkets but their operation is so finely tuned and efficient they are loath to mess with it in a big way. and MFB's revenue is about what 2 average supermarkets worth?

So I really think it comes down to a bit of a knife fight between MFB and Hellofresh over the long term, where at some point they reach stable competition, which could be~5yrs or more away!.  New Zealand is prized amongst international corporates and private equity for the good margins achieved here, because of a lack of competition.  There is only room for so many because of our lack of scale, and that in the long run results in higher prices and margins.  That doesn't mean margins won't decline - indeed I expect they will for many years. But I also think they will be structurally higher than in other countries as a result.

MFB has its first mover advantage, slicker and more efficient marketing per incremental new customer, brand, local and youthful image of local ambassadors but that will weaken over time.  But its still worth something today, and is evident in todays financial result. Hard to forecast into the future, so in these situations you do as one ought to do, and be unduly pessimistic.

A bit cynical but those are my barriers.

What a great post FM.  Our family and many of our friends have been utilising food deliveries off and on for some time. We have found overall that MFB is superior in quality and taste.  Have been buying their ready-made meals for an elderly family member and also ourselves. Healthy and nutritious and dam good to eat as well when stuck for time.

With the money we are paying MFB and really enjoying the meals I decided to have another look at the company from an investment point of view.

We have found Woop to be ok but the most expensive when comparing the main 3 (MFB and Hello fresh).

Here's an insert from NBR which I found interesting.

(Global meal kit giant HelloFresh has beaten My Food Bag on a revenue basis in New Zealand but spending up large on advertising dented its profitability.

According to financials filed with the Companies Office for its financial year ended December 31, the Berlin-based business recorded revenue from contracts with customers of $219.2 million, up 12% on My Food Bag's revenue of $194m for the 12 months to March 31.

My Food Bag's 2022 revenue was very similar to HelloFresh's previous (2020) year-end revenue of $193.8m.

Despite higher income, HelloFresh has significantly higher operating expenses than its NZX-listed competitor, with cost of sales of $199.9m, compared with $146.1m (including marketing expenses) for My Food Bag.

Marketing expenses are a noticeable difference, with the German company spending $16.2m in this area, compared with $4.8m for My Food Bag.

Ultimately, HelloFresh recorded a profit of $13.6m, down 38% on My Food Bag's result of $20m.

Across all of its markets – North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand – HelloFresh recorded revenue of €5.99b ($988.2b) and a profit of €256b ($422.2b).)


The glaring difference between MFB and Hello fresh is the huge difference in marketing costs.  Both companies are profitable. Both companies have cost pressures. My understanding from the wife is that MFB has increased prices while Hello fresh has not.

MFB could drop it's marketing spend to save some money. It has offshore growth potential and I think an acquisition from what they have said is on the cards sooner than later.

I also had a good look at Who would be interested in acquiring the company. Apart from an obvious competitor which I thought was unlikely, the only area I thought might be of interest was one of the main players in the retail food industry. Westfarmers,Pak and save, Reasturant brands our even Farro.  Chris Marshal standing down as a director also interesting. Why given the holding?

All in all I decided that it's worth a punt and have a small holding. Plenty of downside risk but think it's mostly priced in. Makes we feel better when we tuck into their meals Knowing we own a small piece of it.....

There are other quieter competitors in the market.  I use Primal Kitchen, which does no advertising, and provides ready made meals at a cheaper price than MFB.  6 meals delivered from PK is $87.50 compared to $106 for MFB - so that marketing budget makes quite a big difference to the product cost!. 

They get their customers via word of mouth (I have put several people on to them myself) and through the gym networks (where they deliver free) as they offer paleo and keto meals (basically old school meat and 2 veges).  Check them out, I've never had a bad meal from them :-)

I am quite surprised at the high percentage of people using delivery food services, gee we really have become a lazy bunch havent we?  But that being said, it looks to be a permanent lifestyle shift rather than a fad, so the providers will be around for as long as they (a) remain profitable, or (b) can obtain shareholder funding to remain unprofitable, although this business model relies on the greater fool theory which might be disappearing as fast as the cheap money is.

The fall in share price is not so much attributable to the quality of the company, but more that insane market pricing is finally being brought back to earth.  MMM on the ASX dropped from $3.80 to 20c, and Hello Fresh from $97 to $24 so one could say MFB has outperformed its competition. 

Interesting discussion, and one worth reading due to the quality of the posts.  Nice to come into a thread and see an intellectual analysis, rather than 10 pages of people slagging each other off.  Keep up the good work   ;D

I was once given the advice as to where to buy my lunch while travelling; look where the workers go as they like the best [value]food.
Mention has been made about MFB's lack of moat and the ease of setting up in competition to them.
Yet the same could have been said about Ebos and Mainfreight.
Their moat is now their reputation,built of being customer driven offering exceptional service.
MFB's success will depend on the quality of their meals, and excellent dependable service,not price alone..

Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 10, 2022, 07:04 PMSP shoudlnt be used as a measure of value. From the article - which is pretty telling: "The survey found HelloFresh was the most commonly-used food service app, used by 33 per cent of Kiwis in the past 12 months (from 31 per cent previously). Uber Eats was the next most prominent at 31 per cent (unchanged) with My Food Bag coming in third at 20 per cent (from 17 per cent). The survey also found usage was up across several emerging food service brands with Menulog (10 per cent from seven per cent last year), Deliver Easy (eight per cent from six per cent previously) and foodpanda (four per cent from one per cent) the biggest gainers."

So what do we know
- food inflation is rampant. Making ingredient costs more expensive and risk shrinking margins.
- there is no moat. As expected other companies have come into this space. And more will continue to do so. Probably fluctuating over time. Marketing spend will need to increase to maintain market share
- Who packs My Food bags? There is a labour shortage and labour costs are going up as a consequence.
- inflation is rising. House values are decreasing. Dial in food is discretionary spend. When purse strings need to be tightened  service like this may be the first to go.

Would I touch MFB. No - too many risks for me.

Oh dear. As expected

"My Food Bag has seen a slower start to trading in FY23 than expected."

"As at the end of July 2022, deliveries were down -3.8% compared to the same time last year."

"Omicron had a marked effect on My Food Bag's supply-side confidence in Q4 FY22 as the company and its suppliers encountered difficulties accessing staff and dealing with the flow-on problems of incomplete and late deliveries."

"Trading to date in FY23 has also been affected by the economic environment and inflationary pressure on households. This has resulted in a relatively stronger Bargain Box performance within our portfolio of brands and an overall pattern of customers trading down to smaller bags. These have had an unfavourable impact on mix, which negatively impacts earnings."

Trading on its all time low and as mentioned before the consistency of the downtrend since listing is quite remarkable.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/396940/376499.pdf
You'd have to be a very "brave" puppy to bet against that downtrend continuing after that trading update and "tuck in" now or anytime soon.
Buying in confirmed downtrends is the sort of punting I am happy to leave to others.
Sustainability of the dividend looks very much in doubt to me.

MFB investors after today's announcement

(https://i.imgur.com/OqvOloQ.gif)

Sales up which is good, but product mix taking the blame for what is a downgrade.  It seems customers are opting for the cheaper meals. Only had a small holding as part of my punting portfolio but after looking at the pros and cons sold out on opening. The first downgrade but most likely not the last.

Good luck to holders.   

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 15, 2022, 11:16 AMSales up which is good, but product mix taking the blame for what is a downgrade.  It seems customers are opting for the cheaper meals. Only had a small holding as part of my punting portfolio but after looking at the pros and cons sold out on opening. The first downgrade but most likely not the last.

Good luck to holders.   

There is no point increasing sales if it can't be done while maintaining margin. Lots of red flags in today's announcement

Sales up 2.5% but EBITDA down 8% means margins shot

At that rate first half profits could be down 20% unless radical cut to expense base

Quote from: Basil on Aug 15, 2022, 10:21 AMTrading on its all time low and as mentioned before the consistency of the downtrend since listing is quite remarkable.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/396940/376499.pdf
You'd have to be a very "brave" puppy to bet against that downtrend continuing after that trading update and "tuck in" now or anytime soon.
Buying in confirmed downtrends is the sort of punting I am happy to leave to others.
Sustainability of the dividend looks very much in doubt to me.

Yep, chart almost a straight line pointing down

Been trending down 1.0% per week since listing

At that rate the MFB share price will be just over 60 cents by Christmas

Some might think that will be pretty good .... especially if there's more downgrades

Could be an interesting ASM on Friday

No doubt the Chair will be re-elected

[size=1How MFG is playing out over time has remarkable similarities to how Metro Glass has performed ... still a lot more be played out by My Food Bag I fear [/size]

Nardia Lim not cutting the mustard any more.  Desperately need Margot Robbie as brand ambassador.
Paywalled and contains image of Nadia Lim with pet goat.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/omicron-inflation-worries-sour-my-food-bags-start-to-trading-year/B7FLJ6NLOTCRTDDXCSZSJSMAKU/

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 15, 2022, 01:47 PMYep, chart almost a straight line pointing down

Been trending down 1.0% per week since listing

At that rate the MFB share price will be just over 60 cents by Christmas

Some might think that will be pretty good .... especially if there's more downgrades

With straight lines down its best to wait for a confirmed break to the upside.
As you say mate, a lot of similarities between this and MPG and this could potentially also end up in the penny dreadful zone.
Downgrades always come in 3's.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 15, 2022, 04:20 PMNardia Lim not cutting the mustard any more.  Desperately need Margot Robbie as brand ambassador.
Paywalled and contains image of Nadia Lim with pet goat.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/omicron-inflation-worries-sour-my-food-bags-start-to-trading-year/B7FLJ6NLOTCRTDDXCSZSJSMAKU/

The poor woman will have to spend the rest of her life wearing cardigans  :(
https://image.isu.pub/220703233157-f926b64d8d8f29374f51ce1a4faf8362/jpg/page_1.jpg

Metro Glass IPO back in 2014. Shortly after IPO had a profit upgrade - share price goes up over 200. Things don't go that well but then they acquire an Oz company - GROWTH and share price shoots up to the 220s.

My Food Bag was going to use the same play book. But big mouth Bowler anoounced the profit upgrade before the IPO so no post IPO excitment .... idiot wasn't he

I said at the time of time of the MFB IPO that it's share price could eventually follow the path of the MPG one. Main reason they would (like Metro) struggle to live up to lofty expectations and valuations of the IPO. It seems to be happening

Chart is MPG and MFB share price from IPO. I've started the MFB line from the time the MPG share price peaked after the OZ acquisition.

00000mpgmfb.JPG

Cool chart Winner, you're a legend with your charts.  Startling similarities to MPG share price trend.  Heading into the dog box (under 50 cents) category almost as a foregone conclusion.

I felt from the beginning that MYB was overhyped and overvalued at IPO - $1.85?! and a market cap of $450m?! - more than many established business's. Analysts, commentators, ratings agencies did a great disservice to NZ investors for so eagerly promoting such a fragile business with a questionable business model and metrics. Ditto the NZX - it shows how desperate they are for new listings.
MYB could easily go under or end up a 10c-20c stock in a couple or years. Glad I steered clear and I would be bailing now and taking the hit if I was a holder. It's only going to get worse from here.

I agree on the overhyped IPO etc ,but not on the fantasy of going down to such a ridiculous sp i would say this is rock bottom from the news yesterday  all the businesses involved in food at the moment are sharing the same problems ,seeka rbd to name a couple so this is nothing mfb specific & I think  the steps  they have taken to balance these problems resulting in the sales up & the margins down is to be expected actually sales up is unexpected with their winding back measures based on the omricon staff deficiency's pull back on advertising that they can easily afford to push when ready etc .
Still a healthy profit with minimal debts profitable company .
 Not comparable with MPG at all you could superimpose that chart over most company's in this bear market winner
 

Lots of people thought it was rock bottom at $1.20, $1.00, 90 cents, 80 cents...

Quote from: Basil on Aug 16, 2022, 04:36 PMLots of people thought it was rock bottom at $1.20, $1.00, 90 cents, 80 cents...

And MPG said "NZ activity picking up and Australia turnaround progressing well" when MPG share price was about 70 cents

Quote from: Basil on Aug 16, 2022, 04:36 PMLots of people thought it was rock bottom at $1.20, $1.00, 90 cents, 80 cents...

Quite right I agree everyone cannot be right !! and time will tell if 73 cents is a good buy or not .
As it does with all .
 Fridays a s m should be another indicator of how the bear is effecting m f b

MFB close today 72 cents ......all time low

The relentless grind down to lower prices continue

PS - autorower - that's nearly 18 months of MFB price action on that chart I posted ....I can't find any other stock to superimpose that MFB line

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 17, 2022, 07:57 PMMFB close today 72 cents ......all time low

The relentless grind down to lower prices continue

PS - autorower - that's nearly 18 months of MFB price action on that chart I posted ....I can't find any other stock to superimpose that MFB line

HA try harmony after the ipo plenty if I had the inclination ,I'm not saying any are better or worse ,but mfb bears no relationship as a business with mpg in so many ways to non be worthy of a comparison .
I see all the food stocks where down to all time lows yesterday getting  the treatment rbd & seeka as well .they would be a better comparison & more interesting

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 17, 2022, 07:57 PMMFB close today 72 cents ......all time low

The relentless grind down to lower prices continue

PS - autorower - that's nearly 18 months of MFB price action on that chart I posted ....I can't find any other stock to superimpose that MFB line

I can't help wondering how first time naïve investors are feeling after the promotors told them to "Tuck In"...as though there was some great banquet to be eaten here.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 18, 2022, 10:19 AMI can't help wondering how first time naïve investors are feeling after the promotors told them to "Tuck In"...as though there was some great banquet to be eaten here.

I have been in similar scenarios!! so I can imagine never want to be there again once bitten .
But really never been a fan of a business  that does not produce tangible products IMO ie products buildings machines etc
so mpg has always been on my watch list but never made it to a buy and unless I was shorting never will.
 Oh never say never !!!doh

Quote from: Basil on Aug 18, 2022, 10:19 AMI can't help wondering how first time naïve investors are feeling after the promotors told them to "Tuck In"...as though there was some great banquet to be eaten here.

Great first lesson!

Always follow the money and consider the interest of whoever is making recommendations :) ;

If whoever sells the food recommends to Tuck In - hmmm

Hey Auto Rower - I know that that My Food Bag and Metro are completely different types of companies (ie in that context not comparable)

But my comparing the MFB and MPG share prices is part of an ongoing exercise in seeing how markets work, esp post IPO as result of private equity sell downs. In both of these IPO's the beneficiaries were the previous owners and the value put on the company was to maximise their returns with little consideration for the new shareholders. Invariably these companies fail to meet investor expectations etc etc and they fall foul of things of like market/investor sentiment etc etc. In some respects the demands/expectations on those companies become even higher and any small stutter in progress is punished with the inevitiable result.

You might think I'm stupid in doing things like this. But being stupid is one of the main characteristics that distinguish humans from animals. Animals have an instinct for their own best interests. Humans, by contrast, occasionally act in a way that is contrary to rational behaviour - and contrary to their own best interests.

That made me think that while much attention is paid to 'best practice' in business, perhaps we need to pay more attention to stupidity..... or things that don't quite work out to plan and take it as an opportunity to learn,

I've learn't a lot by studying 'impending train wrecks' over the years and that knowledge has saved me a lot of money.

The sad thing is that both Metro and My Food Bag are still at their heart good solid companies performing well but because of what private equity has done to them as the result of the IPO they are tarred by the market as useless dogs. I'm sure if they were still or went private again they would be seen as very profitable solid companies rewarding their owners well.

You may be right Autu Rower and MFB might reward you well from this point. I wish you all the luck but I'll continue my study and hopefully learn more.

I might take you up on your suggestion to include Harmoney on the chart - jeez, they were a sell down as well.

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 18, 2022, 11:29 AMHey Auto Rower - I know that that My Food Bag and Metro are completely different types of companies (ie in that context not comparable)

But my comparing the MFB and MPG share prices is part of an ongoing exercise in seeing how markets work, esp post IPO as result of private equity sell downs. In both of these IPO's the beneficiaries were the previous owners and the value put on the company was to maximise their returns with little consideration for the new shareholders. Invariably these companies fail to meet investor expectations etc etc and they fall foul of things of like market/investor sentiment etc etc. In some respects the demands/expectations on those companies become even higher and any small stutter in progress is punished with the inevitiable result.

You might think I'm stupid in doing things like this. But being stupid is one of the main characteristics that distinguish humans from animals. Animals have an instinct for their own best interests. Humans, by contrast, occasionally act in a way that is contrary to rational behaviour - and contrary to their own best interests.

That made me think that while much attention is paid to 'best practice' in business, perhaps we need to pay more attention to stupidity..... or things that don't quite work out to plan and take it as an opportunity to learn,

I've learn't a lot by studying 'impending train wrecks' over the years and that knowledge has saved me a lot of money.

The sad thing is that both Metro and My Food Bag are still at their heart good solid companies performing well but because of what private equity has done to them as the result of the IPO they are tarred by the market as useless dogs. I'm sure if they were still or went private again they would be seen as very profitable solid companies rewarding their owners well.

You may be right Autu Rower and MFB might reward you well from this point. I wish you all the luck but I'll continue my study and hopefully learn more.

I might take you up on your suggestion to include Harmoney on the chart - jeez, they were a sell down as well.

Learning from human stupidity ... interesting concept.

On the positive side: There is an endless number of really useful examples to learn from, given that human stupidity is (according to Albert Einstein) infinite;

On the other hand ...

Humans find it really tough to learn from other peoples mistakes, which might explain Einsteins observation :) ;

Anyway - interesting subject, might even deserve a seperate thread ...

Heck winner don't be so hard on yourself I think nothing of the sort ,I'm just making conversation & debating us Humans don't agree on everything as you know.
 Would be interesting to see all sorts of graphs I P O s, food industry at the moment as it is with the retirement stocks etc .
 Keep up the good work winner

Great comment Winner.  Invariably with IPO's in recent years this dog has run his well trained sniffer over what's on offer and found very little meat left on the bone.
 

Following the Metro playbook it wouldn't surprise me if My Food Bag came up with an acquisition.

For the instos not looking to good ..... so they'll demand GROWTH to rectify the situation .... and 'tell' MFB buy something .... anything as long as you can see its double digit eps accretive  .... that'll give the share price a decent boost.

Just speculation but you never know .... any ideas what they could buy Auto Rower

This has been a predictable debacle. An acquisition winner would confirm to me it will then head below 50 cents.

It's like that Kevin Costner movie No Way Out from the late 80's I think it was.

Hello Fresh is now bigger than MFB in sales. Maybe someone could make a play for MFB but are there any actual "synergies" to gain?

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 18, 2022, 04:01 PMFollowing the Metro playbook it wouldn't surprise me if My Food Bag came up with an acquisition.

For the instos not looking to good ..... so they'll demand GROWTH to rectify the situation .... and 'tell' MFB buy something .... anything as long as you can see its double digit eps accretive  .... that'll give the share price a decent boost.

Just speculation but you never know .... any ideas what they could buy Auto Rower

 Ha yeah the obvious one is mpg !!
 then they can rebrand to my food bottle  :o  :o

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 17, 2022, 07:57 PMMFB close today 72 cents ......all time low

The relentless grind down to lower prices continue

PS - autorower - that's nearly 18 months of MFB price action on that chart I posted ....I can't find any other stock to superimpose that MFB line

I have never seen a more consistent slope to the downtrend.  Down just on $1 in 18 months, and average monthly loss of 5.5 cents.  If the downtrend continues at a very similar pace it will be under 50 cents by very early 2023.   I suppose some punters will then say that's definitely the bottom.

Chris Lee in weekly update mentioned MFB's 13% yield - heck 13% is huge.

My Food Bag provided a brief update to market, lowering expectations for its full-year result in November.

Nothing in the update would have surprised those ''reading the tea leaves'' and watching the changing economic conditions around the country.

While customer numbers remain broadly stable, deliveries are down, earnings are down, and logistical problems are beginning to appear.

Customers are moving to lower cost (and lower margin) products, including its well-known ''Bargain Box'' product. The prevalence of Covid continues to plague the company, as it struggles to complete timely deliveries, a trend virtually every business is experiencing.

The share price continued its descent following the update, hitting fresh lows as bargain hunters, perhaps inspired by the 13% gross dividend yield, continue to pick up small volumes. Dividend yields, of course, are backwards looking and subject to change, especially when earnings are falling almost 10%.

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 18, 2022, 06:26 PMand logistical problems are beginning to appear

Do we know the basis for this claim?  Or is that simply around issues with timeliness of deliveries?  Timeliness in today's environment is not a major concern, but logistical issues within MFB would be a major red flag given I believe they had decent investment in systems etc recently...?

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 10, 2022, 05:54 PMThought this article  was interesting. Implies MFB might be doing ok. See the share price has come off lows, but still looks very cheap.

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/404905

The only thing that can be said about such articles is they need a link to the original research.

Otherwise it is totally unreliable noise in an already cluttered and unreliable media landscape.

Quote from: Ferg on Aug 18, 2022, 08:57 PMDo we know the basis for this claim?  Or is that simply around issues with timeliness of deliveries?  Timeliness in today's environment is not a major concern, but logistical issues within MFB would be a major red flag given I believe they had decent investment in systems etc recently...?

I think CL is just referencing what MFB claimed were supply side constraints in Q4 F22, where due to covid they didnt have confidence in meeting demand so they culled marketing and required a close management of resources. Thats plausible and understandable. But is it the whole truth? If you go back to my post from a week or two ago (and before the profit downgrade) it was clear to me that by stopping marketing it would poorly position the company for the beginning of this financial year. Yet the SELL side analysts didnt seem bothered about it when the announcement was made in May - didnt even feature into their reports. Given marketing and securing new customers is NPAT negative for a period of time (less than 6 months), a cynic could wonder if they also culled marketing so they could hit their FY22 PFI forecast.

It someone wanted to put managements feet on they fire, they could ask at tomorrows AGM "can you confirm that 100% of the reason for the drop in marketing in q4 was due to covid supply constraints, and no way whasoever related to holding back short term loss making but crucial marketing activivies so that FY22 PFI would be met"

Bet that would make mgmt sweat. And if its true, then great, they got customer numbers back up for now. We dont know the truth but cynical minds can ponder fair questions. And if mgmt hesitate or hedge their answer it makes you wonder what other costs have been held back. I already pointed out post balance date they implemented new LTI/STI and share scheme stuff (a wee note in thr AR told me so). Why wait till fy23 i wonder....

Sadly im on holiday so wont get a chance but 100% fair questions and hope they get asked.

If anyone attends they should take notes and post

Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Aug 18, 2022, 11:16 PMa cynic could wonder if they also culled marketing so they could hit their FY22 PFI forecast.

Charlie Munger once said "Show me the incentives, and I will show you the outcome"

FM and KW think your on the money.

They mentioned vertical integration at the ASM .....to capture some of the margin suppliers are making.

Sounds like a few (small) acquisitions on the way

That'll be good

Hitting an all time low of $0.70 today. That's guy in Australia will be smiling.

Goodness gracious me ...MFB share price closes in the 60's

Maybe 68 cents sounds better

That consistent downward slope to the share price graph continues, no surprises there.
On track to be under 50 cents by January 2023.
I'd say the main risk is it might happen sooner.

Yet another NZX company to enjoy the golden Theresa Gattung touch... Like with Telecom and Truscreen before this, her involvement in a stock is a likely precursor of massive wealth reduction to come for shareholders.  Quite useful really...

Quote from: Hectorplains on Sep 01, 2022, 06:49 PMYet another NZX company to enjoy the golden Theresa Gattung touch... Like with Telecom and Truscreen before this, her involvement in a stock is a likely precursor of massive wealth reduction to come for shareholders.  Quite useful really...

Not to forget Tony Carters involvement, (truly dreadful performance of FBU and AIR over the years). Another reliable warning indicator to stay out.

Hope Chairman Carter steps up and buys some before close

Otherwise will be another all time record low.

Cheaper by the week somecsay

You're much better than me at doing this mate.  Can you please post a graph ever since they listed.
The reason I ask is I just looked at it again and its a thing of absolute wonder.  I don't think in 40 years of investing I have ever seen a more consistent downtrend at a more consistent pace.
Remarkable.  Anyone betting against that trend without any sign of a trend reversal is "incredibly brave"...there's other words I could use, brave is the politest of them.

MFB weekly chart below ,,,,with 30MA (straight line heading down)

Been listed for 81 weeks

Hasn't been bad times all that time - there's been 28 weeks when share price has gone up .... exciting times and hope maybe that the bottom had been reached

But them again there has been 53 weeks of bugger the share price has gone down again .... but the bottom is imminent

00000MFB.JPG

Quote from: Basil on Sep 06, 2022, 06:44 PMYou're much better than me at doing this mate.  Can you please post a graph ever since they listed.

I'd post a chart but I dont see the function to insert them?

KW - when doing a post there's a "Attachments and other options" button under the text box, tap on that and follow your instincts - ADD FILES / UPLOAD and then there's an INSERT button.

Good luck

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 06, 2022, 07:41 PMKW - when doing a post there's a "Attachments and other options" button under the text box, tap on that and follow your instincts - ADD FILES / UPLOAD and then there's an INSERT button.

Good luck

I dont have that.  Why dont I have that?
I have "insert an image" but that only gives you the option to insert a http link.

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 06, 2022, 07:41 PMKW - when doing a post there's a "Attachments and other options" button under the text box, tap on that and follow your instincts - ADD FILES / UPLOAD and then there's an INSERT button.

Good luck

CAn you post an image of this. I don't have it either. Like KW, above this tgext box I have an option to "Insert anf image". Under the text box there is just a "shortcuts" reminder on the left and Save draft / Preview / Post buttons on the right

Quote from: NZInvestor on Sep 07, 2022, 06:08 AMCAn you post an image of this. I don't have it either. Like KW, above this tgext box I have an option to "Insert anf image". Under the text box there is just a "shortcuts" reminder on the left and Save draft / Preview / Post buttons on the right

Use the reply button rather than Quote or Quick Reply.

Quote from: Ithaka on Sep 07, 2022, 06:41 AMUse the reply button rather than Quote or Quick Reply.

Ah yes, this works  :D  

MFB has not actually performed as badly as its peers, Marley Spoon (red) and Hello Fresh (yellow).  So not so much the company, merely the timing of the IPO into an overvalued market, combined with artificial growth from Covid lockdowns that were not sustainable.

 MFB.png  

Quote from: KW on Sep 07, 2022, 10:08 AMMFB has not actually performed as badly as its peers, Marley Spoon (red) and Hello Fresh (yellow).  So not so much the company, merely the timing of the IPO into an overvalued market, combined with artificial growth from Covid lockdowns that were not sustainable.

 MFB.png 

Chair Carter pointed this out at the ASM ..... said something along the lines of 'yes our share price is down heaps but our peers are down even more ..... so were are doing relatively better than them'

Hard work being the Chair of a company whose share price has collapsed ... especially when in question he had to justify how he is still the man for the job and what's happened is not his doing' ..... but then hinted he's likely to retire soon

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 06, 2022, 07:29 PMMFB weekly chart below ,,,,with 30MA (straight line heading down)

Been listed for 81 weeks

Hasn't been bad times all that time - there's been 28 weeks when share price has gone up .... exciting times and hope maybe that the bottom had been reached

But them again there has been 53 weeks of bugger the share price has gone down again .... but the bottom is imminent

00000MFB.JPG

Seems chart not goingto look any better by end of this week

"MFB has not actually performed as badly as its peers, Marley Spoon (red) and Hello Fresh (yellow).  So not so much the company, merely the timing of the IPO into an overvalued market, combined with artificial growth from Covid lockdowns that were not sustainable KW".

Well said and it should have been obvious to any experienced investor the company enjoyed huge tailwinds from Covid in the year leading up to its float which makes the way the promotors targeted first time naïve investors and customers extolling them to "tuck in" all the more reprehensible.
Little did these "blind Freddy" investors know that they were the ones on the menu!

With the latest result being 8.25 cps and much of FY22 having huge tailwinds from ongoing lockdowns, (who in the Auckland region can ever forget the excruciating painful 107 day lockdown of late 2021 ?), it really begs the question what's the sustainable earnings ex Covid ?  Maybe 5 cps ?, but frankly its anyone's guess ?

Does anyone still think they're a growth business ?...certainly not I.  Put a no growth PE of 8.5 on 5 cps in possibly sustainable earnings and I can easily see this heading down to ~ 42 cents.

Of course some really nice person ;)  has taught the hound dog to not buy in a downtrend so we'll see in due course where the bottom really is, if or when a new uptrend is ever confirmed.   

We've all been conditioned over the last 12 years to reward growth, even "growth regardless of cost".  I am hoping this is one of the behaviours that is beaten out of the market by the big grizzly bear.  I'm sick of shareholders subsidising consumers.  Time for companies to "grow within their means" - meaning, provide an adequate return on capital deployed, rather than throwing it on the bonfire.  "Earners or Burners" is my new favourite phrase, be an "Earner" not a "Burner".  If MFB decide to stop chasing growth and just focus on being as operationally efficient as possible, while delivering a good customer product and service, and therefore are able to return profits to shareholders in the form of a fully imputed dividend, I'm all for that.  Income shares have been under-rated for a long time, and it just may be that they are due some time in the sun.  So the big question is really "what is the sustainable dividend payout, and based on inflation/interest rates, what is an appropriate yield for the company to be valued on?"  Over to someone else to answer :-)

If they can earn 5 cps sustainably going forward and pay 4 cps fully imputed = 4 / 0.72 = 5.55 cps gross and one required a gross yield of 10% to be adequately rewarded for risk, interest rates and inflation in a no growth share then theoretically there could be support at 55 cps.

What can they earn sustainably without Covid tailwinds is the big unknown.  Without any non covid tailwind listed history to support an informed decision one could easily make the case that something like the WHS with a decent two decade history of paying an average of 21 cps showing close to a 9% gross yield is a vastly more proven proposition and come up with a case this deserves a 300 basis point premium to that, at least.  12% required rate of return on a 4 cent fully imputed divvy gets you back to 46 cents.

For this old dividend hound a companies track record of ability to pay right across the business cycle counts for a LOT.  All we know about MFB apart from the egregious rort of naive investors wallets is they can earn about 8 cents per share with very strong tailwinds.  What can they earn in normal conditions or with headwinds is frankly anyone's guess.  I like to see a minimum of 5 years of dividend history before drawing any conclusions about the merits of a share from a dividend hounds perspective so for me this carries a ranking of "highly speculative".  In a nutshell that means I wouldn't invest in it for the dividend income.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2022, 02:48 PMWhat can they earn sustainably without Covid tailwinds is the big unknown.  Without any non covid tailwind listed history to support an informed decision one could easily make the case that something like the WHS with a decent two decade history of paying an average of 21 cps showing close to a 9% gross yield is a vastly more proven proposition and come up with a case this deserves a 300 basis point premium to that, at least.  12% required rate of return on a 4 cent fully imputed divvy gets you back to 46 cents.

Hi Basil what is your basis for deciding that the mfb business is reliant on a covid tailwind or has been ,I would be interested to know

Quote from: Auto Rower on Sep 07, 2022, 03:30 PMHi Basil what is your basis for deciding that the mfb business is reliant on a covid tailwind or has been ,I would be interested to know

I think its easy to forget now that case numbers are down to a couple of thousand a day that at times it was 20,000+ a day a few months back and a lot of people were scared to go to the supermarket.  Also last year the Delta outbreak and 107 day Auckland region lockdown would have greatly increased people's propensity to have food delivered.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2022, 03:34 PMI think its easy to forget now that case numbers are down to a couple of thousand a day that at times it was 20,000+ a day a few months back and a lot of people were scared to go to the supermarket.  Also last year the Delta outbreak and 107 day Auckland region lockdown would have greatly increased people's propensity to have food delivered.

I can see your point of view Basil ,but I do not think it would of changed peoples eating habits junk food addict's still getting their uber /menulog etc and new world & the supermarkets doing well in food deliveries of the staples .
Certainly a 5 year divi history would be nice but we will have to wait for that .

For much of the 107 day Auckland lockdown you couldn't get home deliveries from supermarkets unless you were really old and vulnerable and met strict eligibility criteria.  I know, I tired many times with different supermarkets. From memory you had to be 70+.  I also got shut out of click and collect as supermarkets have limited capability on the front too.

We resorted to getting some staples deliveries from WHS but ordering ~$200 of staples and them arriving via 5 different couriers on 5 different days was far from ideal.

I think FY24 might give us a handle on what their normalised earnings are unless of course we get more Covid variants.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2022, 11:40 AMWell said and it should have been obvious to any experienced investor the company enjoyed huge tailwinds from Covid in the year leading up to its float which makes the way the promotors targeted first time naïve investors and customers extolling them to "tuck in" all the more reprehensible.
Little did these "blind Freddy" investors know that they were the ones on the menu!
   

To be fair, there were some very experienced institutional investors, who should have known better, that went in pretty big at the IPO too.
Sucked into thinking that stagging IPOs, regardless of price/value, is a no lose strategy.

And they are the guys (i.e. the ultimate marginal investors) who end up being responsible for the price that JLM investment bankers think they can get the IPO away at.  So I blame their ignorance and greed just as much as the IBs.

I don't really ascribe much blame, if any, to Waterman Capital as vendors.
This was their first IPO exit and they would have been heavily reliant upon whatever their advisors suggested.  They would have wanted it to be a success to establish their credibility for future IPO exits.

Quote from: Ithaka on Sep 07, 2022, 06:41 AMUse the reply button rather than Quote or Quick Reply.

Thanks. Finally found it. "Reply at the top. Not "Quick reply" at the bottom.

Good grief ....close today at 63 cents


Seems Tony didn't step up and buy some to support the share price.

Following Metro Glass trend still.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Aug 15, 2022, 05:24 PMI felt from the beginning that MYB was overhyped and overvalued at IPO - $1.85?! and a market cap of $450m?! - more than many established business's. Analysts, commentators, ratings agencies did a great disservice to NZ investors for so eagerly promoting such a fragile business with a questionable business model and metrics. Ditto the NZX - it shows how desperate they are for new listings.
MYB could easily go under or end up a 10c-20c stock in a couple or years. Glad I steered clear and I would be bailing now and taking the hit if I was a holder. It's only going to get worse from here.

Posted 15 August.  Well called Sir, I think you could be right.

NTA -7.42 cents.  Reminds me of the Evolve float where they had negative NTA that tore up the vast majority of IPO investors money.  MPG now less than one eighth of the IPO price, I think Evolve was slightly worse before the share consolidation.

Shares ending up trading at less than one eighth of their IPO price is certainly not without precedent on the NZX so as Winner suggests this could easily "do a MPG"

Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2022, 07:25 PMPosted 15 August.  Well called Sir, I think you could be right.

NTA -7.42 cents.  Reminds me of the Evolve float where they had negative NTA that tore up the vast majority of IPO investors money.  MPG now less than one eighth of the IPO price, I think Evolve was slightly worse before the share consolidation.

Shares ending up trading at less than one eighth of their IPO price is certainly not without precedent on the NZX so as Winner suggests this could easily "do a MPG"

The amount of goodwill they're carry on their books is out the gate. 

Heading under 50c once they downgrade and have to write-off goodwill next year, or whenever the Board acknowledge reality.

Wow - MFB share price in the 50's

Chair Tony got a few minutes to step in and get it back into the 60's

Wouldn't want a weekly close in the 50s - not a good look at all

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for Tony Carter to save the day by investing his own money here. 
$140,000 for attending all 14 board meetings.  $10,000 a meeting.  Nice work if you can get it.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 09, 2022, 04:15 PMI wouldn't hold your breath waiting for Tony Carter to save the day by investing his own money here. 
$140,000 for attending all 14 board meetings.  $10,000 a meeting.  Nice work if you can get it.

He's got 120,000 odd

Been averaging down since IPO - bought at $1.71 / $1.63 / $1.36 / $1.32 and $1.24

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 09, 2022, 04:11 PMWow - MFB share price in the 50's

Chair Tony got a few minutes to step in and get it back into the 60's

Wouldn't want a weekly close in the 50s - not a good look at all

Wow there must be something else behind this total batting collapse of a company with a good eps not to mention divi cannot all be covid tailwinds I suppose we will no soon enough

Speed of the decline appears to be increasing and risks breaking down the fairly steady rate of constant decline into something worse.  There would appear to be a real risk of this being below 50 cents before Christmas.  Sales comparatives cannot be helped by the fact that this time last year we were into a whopping 107 day Auckland region wide lockdown.  I would think Aug 2022 sales compared to the same month last year probably make for sober reading and its likely Sept, October and November will be much the same.   Maybe the same punters that thought it was a bargain at $1 will step in and give some support at 50 cents ?

Shouldn't have started the chart comparing the Metro Glass and My Food Bag share price trends from date of IPO

Better call the man in the white coat to save me from this morbid fascination

The last couple of weeks MFB has done it best to mimic Metro (both had a bad weeks but Metro has managed to avoid going below 20 cents)

Won't stop me now - fascinating how market behaviour / sentiment goes

0000mfbvmpg.JPG

Quote from: Basil on Sep 09, 2022, 06:16 PMSpeed of the decline appears to be increasing and risks breaking down the fairly steady rate of constant decline into something worse.  There would appear to be a real risk of this being below 50 cents before Christmas.  Sales comparatives cannot be helped by the fact that this time last year we were into a whopping 107 day Auckland region wide lockdown.  I would think Aug 2022 sales compared to the same month last year probably make for sober reading and its likely Sept, October and November will be much the same.  Maybe the same punters that thought it was a bargain at $1 will step in and give some support at 50 cents ?

Its moving into being priced for a recession, and reduction of consumer discretionary spending which should hit companies like MFB as people tighten their wallets.  Although, I personally find pre-prepared meals reasonably economical as there is no food waste - I got sick of throwing out food that had gone off before I had a chance to get around to cooking it.  And the meals are certainly cheaper and healthier than buying takeaway. 
For something in their favour, as Covid dissipates and people return to working in the office and commuting rather than working from home, they become time poor once more so MFB might actually pick up customers.  As mentioned previously, I think that this half year should be a good indication of their longer term prospects, so plenty of time to sit on your hands and watch.  Don't buy the downtrend. 

Chair Carter has 154,045 shares - cost him $245k - average $1.59

So current price of $0.59 he's about $154k under water (less divie he got)

Last time he 'supported' the share price was last November when he bout 20,000 share at $1.24

Probably thought jeez no future in buying anymore

Who says insiders buying is a good sign - many punters think / live by that

Chair Carter under water with his MFB shares

Chair Coutts under water with her OCA shares

Insiders buying always a good sign .... but beware of Chairs buying

Make sure the men in white coats keep their appointment with you nice and short Winner because I need them over here.  Morbid fascination with train wrecks is something I am drawn too as well.  Usually at least one very valuable lesson to be learned, often several.
I believe following insiders is for people who can't do their own proper fundamental and technical analysis. 

You could be right KW that this half is some sort of leading indicator of their sustainable performance going ahead but I suspect the full effect of mortgage rates increasing is still to be felt and it won't be until early - mid 2023 that almost everyone who formerly had an ultra low mortgage rate has had it refixed and get their new and very brutal reality check.    Not just that but people might be inclined to bridge their cashflow shortfall with credit cards for a while so reality might not bite really hard until late next year.  Further, I think it takes most people quite a while to change their habits and cancel memberships, programs and other expenses that are not necessities.  From what I have seen in my career most people have a serious aversion to making savings and bringing new efficiencies within their finances. Its an emotional thing, its not a feel good experience, people feel bad about themselves having to do it and therefore a lot of people procrastinate and "do an ostrich" for as long as they can. 

You strike me as a good pragmatic, proactive, logical thinker and so am I, (so if we could see a financial challenge coming we'd take proactive steps to mitigate the effects), but a lot of people simply run their household finances around what makes them feel good and its more emotion or healthy living based than anything else and a lot will only make changes to habits if they are absolutely forced too, (reactive).  2024 could be the year we see how sticky customers really are.  More than happy to let the downtrend play itself out. 🍻

Basil - studying train wrecks and learning is a good practice.

I enjoyed this piece from Babette at Mindsets titled 'The Subject of Stupidity' - business related but cold apply to 'investing' as well .....and the last thought is very telling in saying 'Should stupidity be topic of study in business'

The Study of Stupidity

Being stupid is one of the main characteristics that distinguish humans from animals. Animals have an instinct for their own best interests. Humans, by contrast, occasionally act in a way that is contrary to rational behaviour - and contrary to their own best interests.

Much attention is paid to 'best practice' in business courses, but perhaps we need to pay more attention to stupidity.

A definition of stupidology is 'doing the same thing again and again, and expecting a different result, as in the example of repeating the same types of campaigns, strategies, etc., and getting only limited results - yet somehow expecting to do better next time.

Organizations (governmental and commercial) get locked into doing the same thing - instead of standing back and asking whether a particular policy is effective. The tendency is to repeat it with more gusto. Perhaps too many careers are vested in the original policy to question it. Instead of lateral thinking, people and organizations just dig themselves deeper into the same hole.

Here are three recommendations to break the cycle:

Educational institutions should teach worst practices. Those that currently teach 'best practice' courses in the hope that students can discover a. formula for success, would perhaps also gain from looking at 'worst practice'. What are the lessons to be learned from the failures?

There should be a study of 'bad role models'. People are often encouraged to follow positive role models, but what about the worst examples they have encountered? They need to reflect on why they thought the bad role models were so bad and how they ought also to avoid behaving as badly.

Within each company, there should be the recognition that mistakes are an opportunity to learn, rather than burying them. There should be a culture where mistakes can be admitted and explored, and lessons learned before moving on.

After every project, a company should sit back and ask: "What were the lessons to be learned? What did we do right and what did we do wrong?" Consider how 'open' your culture is and whether it enables staff to admit that mistakes have been made.

Adapted from: "Stupidology - The study of stupidity" by Keith Suter, Leadership Excellence Magazine, April 2007. https://www.keithsuter.com.au

This article resonated with me back in 2007 and still stands today. What do you think? Should this be a topic of study in business?

Link to article
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/study-stupidity-babette-bensoussan-mba

QuoteThis article resonated with me back in 2007 and still stands today. What do you think? Should this be a topic of study in business? Winner

Yes, absolutely as this cuts right to the core of the culture of any new start up.  Every business has to some extent a process of trail and error, finding what works and what doesn't and learnings from being stupid is vitally important.  If we can't learn from our mistakes how are we going to learn ?

Would make a great high level investment analysis paper.  The science of train wrecks 301.
There are always so many learnings every time a listed company hits the rocks I think that's why I find them so fascinating.
It has been said the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over and to expect to get a different result.

I think its easier to learn from examples of companies that made mistakes than any other way.
The problem with highly successful companies is they're often not that keen to share the recipe of the secret sauce that made them so successful.
I reckon if you study train wrecks long enough you get to learn how to keep your own train on the tracks chugging along just fine.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 10, 2022, 07:16 PMEvery business has to some extent a process of trail and error, finding what works and what doesn't and learnings from being stupid is vitally important.  If we can't learn from our mistakes how are we going to learn ?

I recall in the mid 1980's when almost any NZX IPO was a guaranteed instant success for early investors (or stags as they were known.) Then came the 'crash' of Oct 10th 1987 and many of the then successful IPO's slowly disappeared.

Since that time the success of NZX IPO's has by my estimation been at best 50/50 (I would like to see more recent stats on the success ratio of NZX IPO's??? )

My current investment rule is to avoid the 'hype' of IPO's and this has worked fine for me. Best to wait for a company to prove itself IMO.

The train wrecks usually get made into tv/movies, so pretty easy to study them.  If anyone wants some good summer TV viewing I highly recommend The Dropout (Theranos), We Crashed (WeWork) and Super Pumped (Uber).  If you watch them simultaneously you will see many cross overs and similarities between the three companies. 

But the study of stupidity is really the field of Behavioural Finance.  There you can study all the irrational things that humans do that are self defeating and self sabotaging.  I highly recommend everyone does a Behaviour Finance course like this one https://www.coursera.org/learn/duke-behavioral-finance  (its free)

Quote from: KW on Sep 11, 2022, 10:28 AMI highly recommend everyone does a Behaviour Finance course like this one https://www.coursera.org/learn/duke-behavioral-finance  (its free)

Have you done that course?  I was about to sign up and then decided to read some reviews:
https://www.coursera.org/learn/duke-behavioral-finance/reviews?page=1&sort=recent&star=1

Quote from: Ferg on Sep 11, 2022, 10:45 AMHave you done that course?  I was about to sign up and then decided to read some reviews:
https://www.coursera.org/learn/duke-behavioral-finance/reviews?page=1&sort=recent&star=1

Yes, I've done it.  I passed with between 72-93% scores on the tests.  Going from the reviews, one has to be mindful that (a) its a University level course, and (b) its Duke University so complaining its not easy, or the reading materials are complex, or that it should be dumbed down for beginners, is not particularly useful.  Just take your time, and if in doubt, use Google to do further reading on the subject before (or while) attempting the quizzes.  It does power through the course in 3 weeks and probably could do with more detail in each section, but its enough to give you a good overview of the things that matter.

(If you are only going to read the 1 star reviews you will get a negative impression, but the course has far more 4 and 5 star reviews than 1 star ones.)

Thanks for the feedback.  And you obviously recommend it otherwise you would not have posted it!

Quote from: KW on Sep 11, 2022, 02:46 PMIf you are only going to read the 1 star reviews you will get a negative impression, but the course has far more 4 and 5 star reviews than 1 star ones.

A fair comment. Typically I find out more from negative reviews than a slew of 5 star "great" reviews (Which could be bots for all I know) but one has to keep in mind the author and maybe not everyone is cut out for tertiary learning.

Quote from: Ferg on Sep 12, 2022, 03:34 PMTypically I find out more from negative reviews than a slew of 5 star "great" reviews (Which could be bots for all I know) ....

I'm just the same with shows on IMDB...

I dunno much about MFB.  However; all three "meal kit stocks' on the ASX are stuck in epic down trends.  MFB is at an all time low today, MMM and MBX are also loitering around their lows.  The whole sector is a dog's dinner and there are no signs of the sentiment changing any time soon. 

Quote from: Hectorplains on Sep 12, 2022, 08:30 PMI dunno much about MFB.  However; all three "meal kit stocks' on the ASX are stuck in epic down trends.  MFB is at an all time low today, MMM and MBX are also loitering around their lows.  The whole sector is a dog's dinner and there are no signs of the sentiment changing any time soon. 

Definitely not time to "tuck in" anytime soon. 

Quote from: Ferg on Sep 12, 2022, 03:34 PMThanks for the feedback.  And you obviously recommend it otherwise you would not have posted it!

A fair comment. Typically I find out more from negative reviews than a slew of 5 star "great" reviews (Which could be bots for all I know) but one has to keep in mind the author and maybe not everyone is cut out for tertiary learning.

The one negative comment I do agree with is that one of the quizzes asks questions that are not covered in the course material, so you are guessing the answers (that would be my 72% score lol).  So just watch out for that. 

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398911

Not surprised. $50 cents or less is realistic.

CEO has had enough of MFB......more exciting challenges elsewhere it seems.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398911

My Food Bag Group Limited (NZX: MFB) announces that overnight it has received notice of resignation from the company's Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Bowler.

Mr Bowler joined My Food Bag in June 2018 as its first independent CEO and has overseen a period of significant change.
Tony Carter, My Food Bag's Chair, says "Kevin successfully led the business through the COVID-19 pandemic, which delivered a number of significant challenges, including heightened health & safety risks, supply chain disruptions, rapid periods of growth and high inflation.

"It has been a challenging time for My Food Bag and despite this, with Kevin's leadership, the business has performed well, transitioned to a publicly listed company and is investing for the future.

"During Mr Bowler's tenure, the business virtually tripled its earnings, took control of national operations from third parties, opened two new assembly facilities in Auckland and Christchurch, and broadened its offering to customers by adding recipe choice, Made meals and its grocery options via the Kitchen.

"We wish Kevin all the very best as he seeks out new challenges in his personal and professional life," says Carter.

I wonder if this is related to the return of Cecilia Robinson?

Possibly.  Would be hard and could have a different view on marketing / customer retention.

Under his newly established LTI scheme all his non base rem is based on 50% relative TSR vs NZ50 and 50% absolute EPS growth. That not getting paid this year I wouldnt have thought.

There was no LTI payment last year as didnt over perform and hurdle not yet.

Could be sees whats coming and doesnt want to be the one to have to resize the business - people like to grow things - not shrink them.

Does this count as the second downgrade or have we still got 2 more to go

We still have two more downgrades to go.  Doggy won't be standing in front of this fast moving train wreck anytime soon.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 16, 2022, 10:48 AMWe still have two more downgrades to go.  Doggy won't be standing in front of this fast moving train wreck anytime soon.

Who downgraded them Basil !!and to what price

Company itself issued this http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/396940/376499.pdf

Market seems to like the CEO resignation.  More old dead wood to be kicked out the door ?

New Zealand's statistics agency's food price index rose again in August, Statistics NZ's index shows a food price increase of 8.3 percent in the year to August. 
The index was also 1.1 percent higher last month than in July.
Fruit and vegetable prices, up 15 percent year on year, represented a large chunk of the inflated food costs.

This is a real issue for MFB - there's too much aggressive competition for them to raise their prices.

Devon selling down and taking a large loss

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/399059/379308.pdf

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/my-food-bag-what-happens-next-and-who-will-lead-the-company-long-term/7WNZHYECIYTOFTXZL6NYDZSUGU/  Paywalled...contains idle speculation about what happens next for My fool bag, opps sorry, My Food Bag.

Quote from: Basil on Sep 19, 2022, 05:49 PMhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/my-food-bag-what-happens-next-and-who-will-lead-the-company-long-term/7WNZHYECIYTOFTXZL6NYDZSUGU/  Paywalled...contains idle speculation about what happens next for My fool bag, opps sorry, My Food Bag.

Sorry to go off topic but this twaddle is all too indicative of the parlous state of NZ MSM business reporting. The only thing spared is reference to Twitter posts on the subject (which I had assumed were now mandatory.)

Admin - Please forgive my dalliance off topic. Journalism is I imagine, sometimes a pretty tough gig.  On a slow news day when there's nothing much to write about you still have to meet quota on articles and often they're not worth the price of the subscription or the paper they are printed on, (just as well that article is mostly read online eh ;) ) and one can despair as to why they bother subscribing.
And then there are other days and articles like this touching piece which makes this months Herald subscription worth every penny.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/queen-elizabeth-death-the-cowboy-and-the-queen/2F6CH76227IWVG622TY4DJFHDY/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Premium_Business_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=ae2dd95d629344ca8119b12a0d7d7338

Thought for the day: Life is full of processes where we sort the wheat from the chaff.

MFB sponsoring a new T.V. show called Nadia's Farm.  Trailer shows Nadia holding a goat and stroking a chicken among other things.
Must admit she does have a nice relaxed and quite relatable persona about her that comes across well on T.V.
Sponsorship is probably a good move but at what cost ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/my-food-bag-sponsors-nadia-lims-new-tv-show-nadias-farm/VBBP2D3TNHGZYGSM5STK5NHXBQ/  Paywalled

Quote from: Basil on Sep 20, 2022, 06:30 PMMFB sponsoring a new T.V. show called Nadia's Farm.  Trailer shows Nadia holding a goat and stroking a chicken among other things.
Must admit she does have a nice relaxed and quite relatable persona about her that comes across well on T.V.
Sponsorship is probably a good move but at what cost ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/my-food-bag-sponsors-nadia-lims-new-tv-show-nadias-farm/VBBP2D3TNHGZYGSM5STK5NHXBQ/  Paywalled

Indeed. Nadia has done well and good on her

I think that is a positive move forward for them as Nadia is the only moat & their followers will adore that  :-X 

The market seems to think it is a good move also  :o
 Up 6 and a quarter percent today  ::)

Shoeshine at NBR seems reasonably bullish on MFB future

Sure to rise: can new My Food Bag CEO deliver?

https://www.nbr.co.nz/shoeshine/sure-to-rise-can-a-new-my-food-bag-ceo-deliver/
Probably paywalled

Nadia Lim's new farm show not helping and MFB plumbing new low's down to 56 cents.  Winston her dog is the real star, they need to promote Winston more.

Quote from: Basil on Oct 21, 2022, 05:02 PMNadia Lim's new farm show not helping and MFB plumbing new low's down to 56 cents.  Winston her dog is the real star, they need to promote Winston more.

Well, Winston is clearly a dog and well past his use by date, but promoting him?

Both MFB and Metro Glass print 'disappointing' announcements this morning

I guess both share prices will fall over the next few months

Probably reduced dividend from MFB will hurt their share price more

I'll updte that MFB/MPG comparative share price chart in a few weeks -- expecting the MFB share price to be getting closer to the MPG one

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130513373/my-food-bag-firsthalf-profit-slumps-38-as-consumers-tighten-their-wallets?fbclid=IwAR3ypSzbHv53o5MszwHWcqgHedACa5qa8av4vD3gQG9hBdDfcgLK2YFTTMk

My Food Bag first-half profit slumped 38% as consumers tighten their wallets and hunt for bargains in a high inflation environment.

The meal kit company said net profit fell to $5.9 million in the six months to September 30, from $9.4m last year. Revenue slid 4.1% to $94.4m.

My Food Bag had previously warned that profit would take a hit this year as consumers tighten their wallets in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, with more customers choosing its lower margin 'bargain box' and trading down to smaller bags. Overall deliveries fell 9.4% in the first half to 732,000, although bargain box deliveries lifted 2.1%.

"Across the whole meal kit category, discounts have played a heavy role in attracting new customers during the first half of the year," said chief executive Mark Winter. "We've experienced higher than average churn from customers starting with us via discount deals." ......................................................
   more  ..........................................................

Shares in My Food Bag have lost 47% of their value this year, and closed on the NZX on Thursday at 58c.

Oh dear...Nadia's Farm T.V. show not helping.
eps of only 2.4 cps in the current half but paying 3.0 cps dividend ?  Hmmm...that makes "perfect" sense in the current environment and appears unsustainable going forward.

If they can replicate 1H performance in the second half (and I am concerned they may not be able to do this for a number of reasons mainly revolving around the level of food price inflation and customers getting really hammered as they come off cheap 2-3% fixed price mortgage deals and face a new reality of 6%+) that's only 4.87 cps earnings for the full year. 

Of course the company are still creatively talking up the growth prospects, (playing defense for the ludicrously overpriced IPO as you would expect), but until there is a proven track record of growth extending past growth fueled by among other things, risks of shopping due to Covid infection and draconian lockdowns, there is no growth so if we apply a quick and dirty no growth PE of 8 to eps of 4.87 cps I see fair value at 39 cents.  (HUGE caveat to this indicative valuation is the assumption that the current level of eps can be maintained going forward), which quite frankly, seems highly unlikely.

I think Winner is right and MFB and MPG are in a race to the bottom.  Watch the chart and don't dare buy until there is a confirmed bottom as evidenced by a clear break up through the 100 day moving average, (if indeed this ever happens for either company).  TA is your best friend when future earnings are so uncertain.

As expected, shares getting punished this morning, 49 cps at time of posting.  Plenty of potential for more pain ahead with this one.  I feel so sorry for naïve first time investors who were enthusiastically extolled by the promotors to "Tuck In" like there was some great banquet to be had.    Heartbreaking stuff for many of these smaller investors who have little and cannot afford the loss.

Foodstuffs looking to devote more space to frozen foods and ready meals will be another challenge .

I said this was going to 50c and now that it's there it feels like 30-40c is coming next year...

Basil, I have to say and this might come back to bite me but MPG look to have a better business than MFB...the difference being MPG have a chunk of bank debt they have to manage.  But MPG have more ebitda and more costs they can cut in a downturn than MFB imho...

Thanks for your thoughts mate.  I find it truly incredible that MPG have made such a mess of things when they have had the lions share, (didn't they have about a 50% market share a year or two ago ?) of a booming construction market over the years ?  I see they're only now looking at doing a cost out exercise...something that should have been done years ago in my opinion.
On the other hand MFB have a modest customer base that at least has some chance of growing at some stage down the track but frankly who knows when ?
I don't think there's any doubt about it, these are both very ugly puppies!

Quote from: KW on Sep 10, 2022, 01:32 PMIts moving into being priced for a recession, and reduction of consumer discretionary spending which should hit companies like MFB as people tighten their wallets. 
.....
As mentioned previously, I think that this half year should be a good indication of their longer term prospects, so plenty of time to sit on your hands and watch.  Don't buy the downtrend. 

There you go.  Everyone has the answer.  Never buy the downtrend, or you'll end up beaten and bloody  8)

Quote from: KW on Nov 18, 2022, 01:20 PMThere you go.  Everyone has the answer.  Never buy the downtrend, or you'll end up beaten and bloody  8)

And we know this because you've drummed it into our heads for many years so a HUGE thank you to you !! 

MFB share price still doing its best to catch up with Metro Glass MPG ..... but MPG gone below 20 again is making it a bad harder for MFB to catch up

But MFB getting there - 20 cents doesn't seem too far away

Sad story though ..... but a few are still laughing at managing to do what they did,

0000mfb.JPG

QuoteAs mentioned previously, I think that this half year should be a good indication of their longer term prospects, so plenty of time to sit on your hands and watch.  Don't buy the downtrend. KW

I think the acid test is coming up in 2023 when we get the recession and the full effect of the cost of living increases with inflation still running high and interest rates maybe at a peak.  Plenty of scope for this to keep falling as more and more customers are forced to seek out lower priced food in harder times.

The other day I speculated with someone that this could be a buy at some stage though.  Just speculative but if they can stabilize the business at around 20% lower level's (which is about where I think it might finally land in late 2023) and about 3 cps in earnings, somewhere in the mid 20's (no growth PE of 8 in the middle of a recession) then this could have some potential coming out the other side of harder times.  I guess it depends on whether you want to invest risk capital into speculative penny dreadful's though?

Time will tell but, in the meantime, we know to watch the chart carefully 😊

This coming recession on the back of the existing Bear market ,will be a full on Acid test for a lot of company's & some will go to the wall .
I will say this should not be One of them unless the wealthy eliteist Nadia (fluff)lovers get stung they have lots to spend on quality & Quality food is something a wealthy person does not scrimp on.
It would be interesting to set up on a poll for whom will go to the wall in the recession .
my favourite is mpg, not wishing this as it should be doing a lot better in these building boom times

Quote from: Basil on Sep 09, 2022, 06:16 PMSpeed of the decline appears to be increasing and risks breaking down the fairly steady rate of constant decline into something worse.  There would appear to be a real risk of this being below 50 cents before Christmas. Sales comparatives cannot be helped by the fact that this time last year we were into a whopping 107 day Auckland region wide lockdown.  I would think Aug 2022 sales compared to the same month last year probably make for sober reading and its likely Sept, October and November will be much the same.   Maybe the same punters that thought it was a bargain at $1 will step in and give some support at 50 cents ?

Posted early September with the share price in the low 60's.
And so it came to pass we entered the 30's, closed at another all time low of 39.5 cps today.
Plenty of water to go under the bridge with tougher economic times for consumers with this one.
Just give it time and there's a very real chance the share price starts with a "2" handle.

Quote from: Basil on Dec 07, 2022, 05:17 PMAnd so it came to pass we entered the 30's, closed at another all time low of 39.5 cps today.
Plenty of water to go under the bridge with tougher economic times for consumers with this one.
Just give it time and there's a very real chance the share price starts with a "2" handle.

Oh dear.  Where is the 'outrage' at promoters and vendors for over-hyping this IPO?  A long hard time ahead for those who "tucked in" at the IPO.

Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 11, 2022, 07:15 PMThere was a bloke who made the mistake of expressing a view that essentially having an attractive person fronting an IPO was a distraction from the fundamentals. I agree with him 100%. Be wary of the attractive looking dividend.

When the IPO came out I recall I bought out my bargepole.

That was my original thought. I see no reason to change it. I see absolutely zero to warrant this as a buy at any price.

The current assault by HelloFresh can't be helping - someone on GeekZone was offering free HelloFresh boxes last week. I partook, with the free box arriving today, and I now seem to have free boxes to offer to others - quite bizarre. But DM me if you want a free HelloFresh box if I can still hand more out (and apologies to all MFB holders...).

Quote from: Mousehold on Dec 10, 2022, 09:03 AMThe current assault by HelloFresh can't be helping - someone on GeekZone was offering free HelloFresh boxes last week. I partook, with the free box arriving today, and I now seem to have free boxes to offer to others - quite bizarre. But DM me if you want a free HelloFresh box if I can still hand more out (and apologies to all MFB holders...).

I just got my free boxes ordered. 12 dinner meals for $15.00 And the ability to send free boxes as well. So let me know if anyone wants 12 free meals (plus p&P)

I see how Hello Fresh is working. Must be quite expensive - but seems a super effective way of dragging people away from MFB for at least a week.

Quote from: NZInvestor on Dec 10, 2022, 03:16 PMI just got my free boxes ordered. 12 dinner meals for $15.00 And the ability to send free boxes as well. So let me know if anyone wants 12 free meals (plus p&P)

I see how Hello Fresh is working. Must be quite expensive - but seems a super effective way of dragging people away from MFB for at least a week.
[/quote

Cheaper than maccas

Quote from: Auto Rower on Dec 10, 2022, 06:22 PM

Quote from: NZInvestor on Dec 10, 2022, 03:16 PMI just got my free boxes ordered. 12 dinner meals for $15.00 And the ability to send free boxes as well. So let me know if anyone wants 12 free meals (plus p&P)

I see how Hello Fresh is working. Must be quite expensive - but seems a super effective way of dragging people away from MFB for at least a week.
[/quote

Cheaper than maccas

sure is with the rewards I'll sign the family up for essentially a months free food.

Quote from: NZInvestor on Dec 10, 2022, 03:16 PMI just got my free boxes ordered. 12 dinner meals for $15.00 And the ability to send free boxes as well. So let me know if anyone wants 12 free meals (plus p&P)

I see how Hello Fresh is working. Must be quite expensive - but seems a super effective way of dragging people away from MFB for at least a week.

I should add - just flick me you email address (I won't use it for nefarious purposes!) and you'll get sent the free box offer. And for my troubles I get a $25 credit into my account.

The "meal kit stocks' on the ASX of MMM and MBX are both boldly creating new lows also.  MMM is at $0.16 (from a high of $3.55 2 years ago and down 82% for the year) and MBX at .045 (down 82% for the year.)   Makes MFB's 60% fall look like it might have more to go! The wheels have fallen of this sector and now the chassis is shaking itself to bits. 

Hellofresh are doing a blitzkrig and taking no prisoners. I've been following their web and app traffic the last few months on similarweb and I don't think the drop off in MFB is simply do to higher food prices, but the competitive environment. What's worse, MFB have loaded up on overheads so operational leverage is kicking in with a vengence as deliveries fall. I had previously done a little forecast where I thought they might get to $11m NPAT in NPAT in FY24....it now looks likely that will be the best case outcome of where they get to THIS year. and god knows what happens to them thereafter.

A very flightly business. Good luck to all holders.

Quote from: NZInvestor on Dec 11, 2022, 12:59 PMI should add - just flick me you email address (I won't use it for nefarious purposes!) and you'll get sent the free box offer. And for my troubles I get a $25 credit into my account.

 No Thanks I am a very keen foodie & do a lot of free range /wild food things .
But I must admit being tempted a few months ago being lead astray by a customer whom is a regular on these things ,& he got his m f b box delivered & knocked up some fancy thing for us both was really impressive ,he is a big Nadia fan as are a lot of people /foodies I  don't think they notice the fluff or the s p but just want the best not some cheaper alternative .
We will see how this pans out

Quote from: Auto Rower on Dec 12, 2022, 08:15 AMNo Thanks I am a very keen foodie & do a lot of free range /wild food things .
But I must admit being tempted a few months ago being lead astray by a customer whom is a regular on these things ,& he got his m f b box delivered & knocked up some fancy thing for us both was really impressive ,he is a big Nadia fan as are a lot of people /foodies I  don't think they notice the fluff or the s p but just want the best not some cheaper alternative .
We will see how this pans out

I don't subscribe to MFB or Hello fresh so I have no idea of their price comparisons or quality of their food / recipes.

But when my free box arrives next week I'll update on what I reckon its value is.

Today MFB opened at $0.40 (ex div) which looks like it about an all time low.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Aug 15, 2022, 05:24 PMI felt from the beginning that MYB was overhyped and overvalued at IPO - $1.85?! and a market cap of $450m?! - more than many established business's. Analysts, commentators, ratings agencies did a great disservice to NZ investors for so eagerly promoting such a fragile business with a questionable business model and metrics. Ditto the NZX - it shows how desperate they are for new listings.
MYB could easily go under or end up a 10c-20c stock in a couple or years. Glad I steered clear and I would be bailing now and taking the hit if I was a holder. It's only going to get worse from here.

I posted the above only 4 months ago, and I might have to revise the timeframe on MFB hitting 20c. They have negative cash outflows and are borrowing to maintain a dividend. Dividends will be suspended soon and once that happens there will be no reason to "invest" in this shonky business and the SP will go into free-fall. I stand by my comment that "it's only going to get worse from here." (which it did).

Well done, you nailed it mate.  I also vigorously barked many warnings right from the start of this unmitigated fiasco.

You two are heroes..... tho' to be fair many posters here were sceptical of MFB from the outset.

The writing has been on the wall throughout its history.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/130769916/maggot-mince-curry-anyone-hellofresh-customer-disgusted-by-contaminated-meat

Well, that's not likely to aid the promotional push of Hello Fresh.  Although the humble maggot is a fine source of protein.  It'd tick all kinds of ESG boxes. 

Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 15, 2022, 08:20 PMhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/national/130769916/maggot-mince-curry-anyone-hellofresh-customer-disgusted-by-contaminated-meat

Well, that's not likely to aid the promotional push of Hello Fresh.  Although the humble maggot is a fine source of protein.  It'd tick all kinds of ESG boxes. 

I'm busy looking up recipes for maggots - mine should arrive Sunday.

Quote from: NZInvestor on Dec 15, 2022, 09:10 PMI'm busy looking up recipes for maggots - mine should arrive Sunday.

Traditional eaten raw in many cultures. Too easy, eh.

Quote from: Minimoke on Dec 11, 2022, 12:59 PMI should add - just flick me you email address (I won't use it for nefarious purposes!) and you'll get sent the free box offer. And for my troubles I get a $25 credit into my account.

I think I will pass on the offer of the free hello fresh  maggot box Minimoke .
Cheap as chips is sometimes so for a reason !!!

Quote from: Auto Rower on Dec 16, 2022, 07:53 AMI think I will pass on the offer of the free hello fresh  maggot box Minimoke .
Cheap as chips is sometimes so for a reason !!!

This is a problem with these food delivery type businesses. They are tied to quite detailed food production standards through their supply chain. And you would expect decent quality control at each step. So, generally, it is inconcievable that rotten meat would pass through the process. The weak link in the chain is leaving the process facility and then onto the courier service and then onto someones back porch.

But mistakes can happen - and all it takes is one. And a person wanting a bit of attention and going to media and that's your brand under threat.

I'll be looking with interest at what rolls up my driveway. Will it be a courier van or a refrigerated truck.

Quote from: Minimoke on Dec 15, 2022, 09:10 PMI'm busy looking up recipes for maggots - mine should arrive Sunday.

I am sure some of the wild food recipes from the coast might work. Isn't a hu hu grab a maggot as well?

So, how did the competition go?

Got my box Hello Fresh today - very good communication on delivery.

Lets get it out of the way - no Maggots. And I don't see how they could have been any. Meat all vacuum packed. Came with loads of ice in the box. So if there were eggs or magots they should be well and truly asleep if put in the fridge and unlikely to survive being put in the frypan.

If you are a Greenie you probably won't like it. Lots and lots of packaging. Each ingredient individually wrapped in plastic. (Some in paper)

Meals come in a separate paper bag. Recipes are very well laid out.

Had the mince and filo tonight. Two of us had done loads of exercise today so quite hungry. Serving filled us. And it was tasty. Easy to prepare. Not a lot of vege so that might need to be supplemnted

So pretty impressed by it.

Can't comment on the cost (as it is essentially free) and won't be continuing subscription. I can see the value of convenience (and it is very convenient) but I have a supermarket 5 minutes away.

So if you are into this kind of thing I think you will be happy enough.

(And if you want to try for essentially free - don't forget -PM me yoru email and I'll arrange a free offer)

I havent tried MFB - but seem the only thing they can compete on is price.

https://www.retaildetail.eu/news/food/hellofresh-silently-retreats-from-japan

https://foodpoisoningbulletin.com/2022/hellofresh-ground-beef-e-coli-o157h7-outbreak-is-number-eight-of-2022

https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2022/december/calls-to-boycott-hellofresh-over-monkey-labour-in-coconut-supply-chain

Another big week in the world of Hello Fresh with them pulling the plug on Japan, poisoning US customers and facing a "monkey labour" boycott.

My Food Bag finished the year tied for 6th spot in the biggest share price decline on the NZX, achieving a 63 per cent drop.  Maybe they need more publicity like Hello Fresh- in an "any news is good news" kinda  way.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 26, 2022, 12:27 AMAnother big week in the world of Hello Fresh with them pulling the plug on Japan, poisoning US customers and facing a "monkey labour" boycott.

Off topic I know but the mention of "monkey labour" reminded my of Karl Pilkington's "monkey news", which was a regular feature on the Ricky Gervais podcast. Karl would talk about a monkey or chimp who had achieved some sort of incredible (or incredulous) feat and then he would add his spin to it:
http://pilkipedia.co.uk/wiki/index.php?title=Monkey_News

Back on topic: I expect MFB to continue to slide in 2023.  No relief in sight for (myfood) bagholders.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130734269/what-infamous-nadia-lim-comment-showed-us-about-nzs-modern-business-world

Stuff are obviously desperately short on news, to decide to re-heat this storm in a cup, with cleavage, from May!  Perhaps more pertinent would be a poll of those who dined on MFB's IPO as to their feelings on the prospectus now? 

Good article in FT  https://www.ft.com/content/7e5f865c-722a-4b3d-b276-fe7ec948c059  that highlights the issues MFB face are indicative of a wider malaise for "subscription box companies" worldwide.

"The decline in demand for subscription box services comes amid a tough year for ecommerce, when inflationary costs and supply chain pressures have led stocks to dip across the sector.

Among the worst-performing subscription companies has been Blue Apron, the New York-based meal kit service that went public in 2018 at a valuation of just under $2bn. The company is valued at $32mn after its share price dipped to just 80 cents, down 88 per cent this year.

Shares in Hello Fresh, a competitor, have fallen 70 per cent over the same period."

...Leading subscription box companies are now embarking on a recovery plan: cutting costs and diversifying, leveraging customer data to launch new products that do not rely on subscription revenue.

"These brands have robust data and analytics capabilities," said Eric Bellomo, emerging tech analyst at PitchBook. "That's a critical piece of their ability to stay above water here."   There is no evidence to date that MFB is doing any of this...

After mere months Hello Fresh have pulled out of Japan - they say "there is currently no market environment that would have justified additional growth financing." Which I think translates in English to it being "unprofitable." They state that their intention is to focus on their other markets.
It's odd that management would make that assessment only months after the launch.  It does raise the question around their ongoing resources allocation.  Japan is obviously a much bigger potential market than New Zealand will ever be.  If the plug got yanked on Japan because they would have still have needed at least several years to become profitable, what then their New Zealand situation?  When does their NZ operation become profitable?  Could HF's withdrawal from NZ be a positive for MFB?  Just some musings on a wet Monday.

As an aside HF's run of bad media continues with baby squashing added to the list.  https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fury-after-delivery-driver-leaves-28870983

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 09, 2023, 09:53 AMAfter mere months Hello Fresh have pulled out of Japan - they say "there is currently no market environment that would have justified additional growth financing." Which I think translates in English to it being "unprofitable." They state that their intention is to focus on their other markets.
It's odd that management would make that assessment only months after the launch.  It does raise the question around their ongoing resources allocation.  Japan is obviously a much bigger potential market than New Zealand will ever be.  If the plug got yanked on Japan because they would have still have needed at least several years to become profitable, what then their New Zealand situation?  When does their NZ operation become profitable?  Could HF's withdrawal from NZ be a positive for MFB?  Just some musings on a wet Monday.

As an aside HF's run of bad media continues with baby squashing added to the list.  https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fury-after-delivery-driver-leaves-28870983

They probably just discovered that culturally, its a very, very different way of life over there.  For starters, people's houses are tiny, many don't have proper kitchens, and many people don't even bother cooking because everyone eats out at the teeny tiny "home style" restaurants, ramen shops, and izakayas that are on every street.  Not to mention all the convenience stores that stock tons of ready made meals.  Its for that reason that I recommend Japan as a great place for someone travelling on their own, all the food places are designed to serve people eating on their own so you never feel strange like you would eating at a western restaurant.  

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 09, 2023, 09:53 AMAs an aside HF's run of bad media continues with baby squashing added to the list.  https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fury-after-delivery-driver-leaves-28870983

That's probably a cultural misunderstanding as well - most non-Scandinavians would see a pram left outside a house in the freezing cold and assume there is no baby in it   :o
Apparently the rows of prams with babies in them left parked outside of cafes freaks tourists out too  ;D

Quote from: KW on Jan 10, 2023, 02:39 PMThey probably just discovered that culturally, its a very, very different way of life over there.  For starters, people's houses are tiny, many don't have proper kitchens, and many people don't even bother cooking because everyone eats out at the teeny tiny "home style" restaurants, ramen shops, and izakayas that are on every street.  Not to mention all the convenience stores that stock tons of ready made meals.  Its for that reason that I recommend Japan as a great place for someone travelling on their own, all the food places are designed to serve people eating on their own so you never feel strange like you would eating at a western restaurant. 

Bizarre that HF couldn't have seen this before they launched there.  Seems like it was a 'be first at any cost' strategy - until the cost started to bite.  Of course, MFB had it's own little cultural learning over the ditch.  CEO Cecilia Robinson was brimming with confidence back in 2014, "The Australian market is quite infant, and our offering is really slick so I think we can do really well over there."  Less than two years later they'd decided it's no fun being a little feesh in a big pond and swam home.   

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 10, 2023, 02:59 PMBizarre that HF couldn't have seen this before they launched there.  Seems like it was a 'be first at any cost' strategy - until the cost started to bite.  Of course, MFB had it's own little cultural learning over the ditch.  CEO Cecilia Robinson was brimming with confidence back in 2014, "The Australian market is quite infant, and our offering is really slick so I think we can do really well over there."  Less than two years later they'd decided it's no fun being a little feesh in a big pond and swam home.   

NZ'ers have a history of under estimating the challenges associated with entering the Australian market.

Sure its HF stuffing up (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131001833/hello-fresh-apologises-for-technical-glitch-that-caused-people-to-be-charged-for-skipped-boxes) (again) but the wider perception will be that convenience of meal kit companies is actually ... not very convenient. 

Further (https://www.modernretail.co/operations/why-meal-kit-darlings-are-struggling-to-maintain-momentum) evidence that there are core issues with the meal kit model too.
Freshly ceasing operations, Blue Apron on a delisting warning from the New York Stock Exchange, HelloFresh closing down its California facility, 600 laid off.

HelloFresh accounts for 69% of the total U.S. meal kit market. In its most recent earnings, the company saw a 31.4% rise in year-over-year revenue, but its adjusted EBITDA declined by 10%. The company attributed this profit drop to its marketing costs growing as it attempted to retain customers. This illustrates just how big a challenge HF poses to MFB. They're employing exactly the same tactic here  - focusing primarily on growing revenue.  Hard for MFB to compete with that when HF pockets are deep.

New all time low for MFB today - 38cps... and it still looks overpriced. 

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 24, 2023, 10:07 PMSure its HF stuffing up (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131001833/hello-fresh-apologises-for-technical-glitch-that-caused-people-to-be-charged-for-skipped-boxes) (again) but the wider perception will be that convenience of meal kit companies is actually ... not very convenient. 

Further (https://www.modernretail.co/operations/why-meal-kit-darlings-are-struggling-to-maintain-momentum) evidence that there are core issues with the meal kit model too.
Freshly ceasing operations, Blue Apron on a delisting warning from the New York Stock Exchange, HelloFresh closing down its California facility, 600 laid off.

HelloFresh accounts for 69% of the total U.S. meal kit market. In its most recent earnings, the company saw a 31.4% rise in year-over-year revenue, but its adjusted EBITDA declined by 10%. The company attributed this profit drop to its marketing costs growing as it attempted to retain customers. This illustrates just how big a challenge HF poses to MFB. They're employing exactly the same tactic here  - focusing primarily on growing revenue.  Hard for MFB to compete with that when HF pockets are deep.

New all time low for MFB today - 38cps... and it still looks overpriced. 

I think $0.25 is closer to the mark. Which isn't a bad number as this is all you will loose when it eventually goes bust.

Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 25, 2023, 10:27 AMI think $0.25 is closer to the mark. Which isn't a bad number as this is all you will loose when it eventually goes bust.

If you bought (& held) say $10,000 worth at $1.60 versus bought $10,000 at $0.25 - if it goes to zero - you lose $10,000 either way

Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jan 25, 2023, 10:34 AMIf you bought (& held) say $10,000 worth at $1.60 versus bought $10,000 at $0.25 - if it goes to zero - you lose $10,000 either way

if you bought 10,000 shares you would loose less.

As I do not hold and never have, I do not loose anything...lol. ;D
However daughter No.2 enjoys their meals,the odd time she orders them.

Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 25, 2023, 10:39 AMif you bought 10,000 shares you would loose less.

You'd lose a lot, and only have loose change left.

Oh dear but it all OK as Tony Carter says "While the financial result for FY23 is likely to be disappointing, the Board is confident in the long term outlook"

Big profit downgrade and no more divies this year

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/406838/388719.pdf

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 17, 2023, 08:42 AMOh dear but it all OK as Tony Carter says "While the financial result for FY23 is likely to be disappointing, the Board is confident in the long term outlook"

Big profit downgrade and no more divies this year

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/406838/388719.pd

This is the way the world ends not with a bang but a whimper

T.S.Elliot The Hollow Men 1925

Currently 4 bids for 300,000 shares at $0.375. I wonder if they have seen the news?

It's a perfect short, if you could get the stock.

EBITDA down 50% from F2022.  Next stop loss making...

What a disaster. Sorry for holders.

From Craig's this morning

MFB – STOP PRESS – a significant downgrade from MFB this morning who note that as at end of January delivery volumes are 11.8% lower than the PcP with volumes not recovering post holidays and long weekends in a similar vein to prior years. MFB note that for the 10 months to January revenue is down 8% and EBITDA 39.2%. Revised FY23 EBITDA guidance EBITDA $17-19m (CIPe $24.2m) i.e. this is a downgrade to operating earnings at the mid-point of c26%. The MFB board have cancelled the final dividend (interim 3cps) but despite the weak operating performance express optimism that dividends can be reinstated in FY24 due to cost-saving initiatives, strong FCF and low levels of debt ... MFB closed yesterday at 37cps (12 month

Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 25, 2023, 10:27 AMI think $0.25 is closer to the mark. Which isn't a bad number as this is all you will loose when it eventually goes bust.

Well what do you know. 19,567 shares crossed today at $0.25

Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 17, 2023, 10:38 AMWhat a disaster. Sorry for holders.

Sorry - I have zero sympathy. It was well flagged this was a dog from day one.

I posted 6 months ago, that MFB could be a 10-20c stock in a couple years, based on its cash burning trajectory. Might have to bring that projection forward a bit.... 

Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 17, 2023, 11:36 AMSorry - I have zero sympathy. It was well flagged this was a dog from day one.

I had it flagged as a flea-bitten dog from day 1 also.....

Pity I'm not as good picking winners..... :(

MFB seems to be outperforming Metro Glass for all the wrong reasons

Often said the similarity between the two IPOs was a bit eerie and the MFB performance / share price would follow the same trend as Metro

mfbvmpg.JPG

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 17, 2023, 01:26 PMMFB seems to be outperforming Metro Glass for all the wrong reasons

Often said the similarity between the two IPOs was a bit eerie and the MFB performance / share price would follow the same trend as Metro

mfbvmpg.JPG

Both brought to the happy punters by Forsyth Barr where honey attracts flies rather than vinegar.

That bloke in Australia will be smiling. Media went all "Me Too" which was a distraction from the core issues - a pretty IPO document and poor performance.

Not interested in this stock so I don't follow it other than a cursory glance every now and then. Very sad looking chart.

Such a tragedy with the promoters targeting their own unsophisticated (massive generalisation but you know what I mean) customers heavily to invest in the IPO and for many, I guess, it being their first, only and (based on the subsequent price performance) last investment into the share market.

Presenting that an increase in demand for their cheaper Bargain Box, was having an "unfavourable impact" on earnings makes Winter sound pretty dim.  That cannibalisation of your existing customer market is always the risk when you provide a cheaper option.   No signs of dynamic leadership at MFB.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Feb 17, 2023, 02:54 PMPresenting that an increase in demand for their cheaper Bargain Box, was having an "unfavourable impact" on earnings makes Winter sound pretty dim.  That cannibalisation of your existing customer market is always the risk when you provide a cheaper option.  No signs of dynamic leadership at MFB.

Here's Mark's Linkedin announcement from 3 months ago - with a translation to reality.

I'm excited to sign on as My Food Bag's CEO. (10 years at Fonterra and I was going nowhere) Despite some challenges ahead in the current economic and inflationary environment (MFB is trading poorly), My Food Bag is an exceptional business ('exceptional' as in 'rare' - like how I cook my MFB steak - a.k.a. 'not well done.') with a clear purpose to inspire Kiwis to be happier and healthier, one meal at a time. (social engineering is easier than growing a profitable business.) I'm looking forward to leading My Food Bag through its next phase (a desperate cash raise and trying to ship this pup off to some bunny buyer) and the initiatives already underway (what we're doing isn't working but I have no idea as to what else to do) to improve our business operations (big round of redundancies coming soon) to unlock future growth in FY24 and beyond. (hopefully there's another black swan event like Covid that saves our arses.)

A note on the recent trading update.

Things looking a bit bad for this company. Falling earnings, balance sheet in need of changes and final dividend cancelled FY23.

MFB Note (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/note-my-food-bag-mfbnzx-mfbasx)

Gosh declining cash going forward. MFB's net debt position as at September 2022 was ~NZ$6m, and expect this may reach ~NZ$12m by the end of FY23 (against total bank facilities of NZ$40m). Forecast net leverage of ~0.7x EBITDA is unlikely to breach covenants.

Declining sales and increasing costs. The storms will certainly see produce increasing. I can see a possible capital raise coming up. 

Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AMGosh declining cash going forward. MFB's net debt position as at September 2022 was ~NZ$6m, and expect this may reach ~NZ$12m by the end of FY23 (against total bank facilities of NZ$40m). Forecast net leverage of ~0.7x EBITDA is unlikely to breach covenants.

Declining sales and increasing costs. The storms will certainly see produce increasing. I can see a possible capital raise coming up. 

A damn shame really. I'm not a shareholder but as a customer I think their product is fantastic and service a very good.

I would be gutted if things didn't work out for them longer term and they exited the market.

Let's hope they can turn things around!

Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AMGosh declining cash going forward. MFB's net debt position as at September 2022 was ~NZ$6m, and expect this may reach ~NZ$12m by the end of FY23 (against total bank facilities of NZ$40m). Forecast net leverage of ~0.7x EBITDA is unlikely to breach covenants.

Declining sales and increasing costs. The storms will certainly see produce increasing. I can see a possible capital raise coming up. 

MFB banking facility covenant is reliant on receivables. In their latest update they say revenue is down 8%. It also is reliant on a value in property plant and equipment - they may well be depreciating at a greater rate than it is  being added.

Today I reckon we will see interest rates rise. This will put additional presume on household spending. The impact of the cyclones will undoubtedly put the price of produce up. On 1 April the minimum wage once again goes up which will result in increases in supply chain costs.

There has to be an impact on goodwill and brand intangible asset valuation.

I have no doubt bankers will be looking very closely at the covenants and their exposure.

I see Harbour Asset management reduced their holding yesterday. A bit late!

Quote from: mistaTea on Feb 22, 2023, 10:12 AMA damn shame really. I'm not a shareholder but as a customer I think their product is fantastic and service a very good.

I would be gutted if things didn't work out for them longer term and they exited the market.

Let's hope they can turn things around!

We also like their meals.  Unfortunately people only have so much money, with conditions expected to get worse. Unless they can supply ingredient's cheaper than the supermarkets they in my opinion are up against it.

Its a shame that they did not make an acquisition, which could of masked some of the issues.  All these half empty boxes going out could of been filled with say pet food products.

Hope they can succeed, but think there is so much negativity around this company that its going to be a mission. Their bankers will be very concerned.

Not a good idea mixing in pet food.
Always keep in mind the guy who arrived home late from the pub,and heated up the stew in the fridge.Loved it.
In the morning his wife gave him hell for eating the dog's tucka,,....lol.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/on-the-money/an-inquest-into-the-my-food-bag-disaster-part-1/ yeah, it's paywalled.  NBR have taken their time to get to this story.  Two part piece beating on MFB.  Nothing in pt. 1 that hasn't been said here already.

My Spew Bag...  (https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/03/02/more-hummus-products-recalled-over-salmonella-risk-my-food-bag-impacted/) another own goal.  Should team up with The Phoenix.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Mar 05, 2023, 01:14 PMMy Spew Bag...  (https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/03/02/more-hummus-products-recalled-over-salmonella-risk-my-food-bag-impacted/) another own goal.  Should team up with The Phoenix.

You meant the Warriors

This is our year

The original My Food Bag was a good one ...so good that the likes Harbour Asset Management (10.8%), Jarden Securities (3.9%), and Milford Asset Management(8.8%) all fell in love with it.

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 05, 2023, 01:53 PMThe original My Food Bag was a good one ...so good that the likes Harbour Asset Management (10.8%), Jarden Securities (3.9%), and Milford Asset Management(8.8%) all fell in love with it.

21 Feb SPH Notice, probably another one due too.  Looks like that love is wavering - now at the marriage guidance counselling phase.

Today close 23 cents

Catching up to Metro Glass faster than I thought

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 05, 2023, 01:53 PMThe original My Food Bag was a good one ...so good that the likes Harbour Asset Management (10.8%), Jarden Securities (3.9%), and Milford Asset Management(8.8%) all fell in love with it.

All money has some kind of emotional factor embedded in it.

It's not their money. Hardly affects their incomes even if they lose all.

Any half-decent analyst could have warned them on this stock before the IPO. But no, they went ahead anyway. Who knows why.

Their investors take the hit and the fund managers are so diversified they have no chance of beating the market anyway.

The financial press do nothing.

MFB trying to catch Metro Glass but Metro Glass goes down a few more cents tokeep MFB at bay

Have to say that MFB has outperformed Metro Glass .... got down close to 20 cents a lot quicker

If my 'theseis' is right about the similarities of these post IPO then its hard to see MFB share price doing much from here for a year or so (or maybe for ever)

0000mfbmpg.JPG

NBR in the second half of their in depth investigation into MFB have concluded that, "shares look to have been fundamentally overpriced at time of floatation."  To which the only rejoinder is; "no sh*t, Sherlock."

Quote from: Hectorplains on Mar 25, 2023, 10:27 AMNBR in the second half of their in depth investigation into MFB have concluded that, "shares look to have been fundamentally overpriced at time of floatation."  To which the only rejoinder is; "no sh*t, Sherlock."

LOL, Best post of the week.👍👍

Harbour and Jarden slowly getting rid of their shares

Guru managers ...still hold 33 million of the critters

On another note Interesting Waterman  have transferred their holding out of one of their funds and put the shares in a bottom drawer out of sight. Probably to make the investment fund look a lot better / healthier

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 04, 2023, 05:28 PMHarbour and Jarden slowly getting rid of their shares

Guru managers ...still hold 33 million of the critters

Yes at a huge loss. Just shows you what they think of the company's future prospects.

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 04, 2023, 05:28 PMHarbour and Jarden slowly getting rid of their shares

Guru managers ...still hold 33 million of the critters

On another note Interesting Waterman  have transferred their holding out of one of their funds and put the shares in a bottom drawer out of sight. Probably to make the investment fund look a lot better / healthier

I see it in a different way . A private equity fund normally has a 5-10 year time span where they purchase assets then flick them off,repay investors. Obviously this 15 % shareholding could be seen to be hanging over the market.
By putting the shares in a long term vehicle , ( lets be honest the investors already made plenty without this last little bit ) should be seen as a vote of confidence in MFB imo,not as an attempt to make the numbers look better.

With one eye on the Synlait train wreck I reckon this one could go to an all time low today.

(Edit and with my third eye I see MPG has hit a new low today as well)

Edit. Wel that didn't take long. Now 19.7 with no more support at this level

MFB making more worst of lists. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300856573/five-pandemic-darling-companies-that-have-lost-their-shine)

Quote from: Hectorplains on Mar 25, 2023, 10:27 AMNBR in the second half of their in depth investigation into MFB have concluded that, "shares look to have been fundamentally overpriced at time of floatation."  To which the only rejoinder is; "no sh*t, Sherlock."

Hows their forecasting ability if it takes 20/20 hindsight vision to see that. MFB did time their float well, picking up glowing but unsustainable numbers from the first lockdown.

An online supermarket with fast delivery times,  if this (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/how-kiwi-grocery-startup-teddy-is-using-chatgpt-for-big-business-results/NCAU5M3QEFEZVLS5XKEMNC632Y/) is potentially a disruptor to the supermarkets, that'd go double for MFB then? Sounds like they're doing it pretty well (https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018869237/grocery-app-promises-deliveries-within-30-minutes) too.

The way Harbour / Jarden getting rid of shares (2 SSH this week) the MFB share price closing in on the Metro share price

Thought it would take longer than this

MPG have a LOT of debt and are a complete basket case in my opinion.

Leaving aside the atrocious rort of naive investors' money
The $64,000 question regarding MFB is do they have a sustainable business model or not ?
Is there some point where it might actually be a fair risk reward price to consider "tucking in" ?
I don't know.    Is there anyone who wants to take a shot at opining on this ?
Is there a pretty good chance this is headed to receivership or not ?

Quote from: Basil on May 11, 2023, 06:35 PMMPG have a LOT of debt and are a complete basket case in my opinion.

Leaving aside the atrocious rort of naive investors' money
The $64,000 question regarding MFB is do they have a sustainable business model or not ?
Is there some point where it might actually be a fair risk reward price to consider "tucking in" ?
I don't know.    Is there anyone who wants to take a shot at opining on this ?
Is there a pretty good chance this is headed to receivership or not ?

Happy to opine

You don't have a big enough barge pole Basil

 8) 

Quote from: Basil on May 11, 2023, 06:35 PMMPG have a LOT of debt and are a complete basket case in my opinion.

Leaving aside the atrocious rort of naive investors' money
The $64,000 question regarding MFB is do they have a sustainable business model or not ?
Is there some point where it might actually be a fair risk reward price to consider "tucking in" ?
I don't know.    Is there anyone who wants to take a shot at opining on this ?
Is there a pretty good chance this is headed to receivership or not ?

That's the elephant it was such an atrocious ipo ,no one can forgive them .
But there are a lot less profitable & un profitable companies out there priced a lot sillier so there may well be a tucking in point .
In another week 8 days to be precise  after the earnings results we will know if we have missed the chance to tuck in to a food bag or missed picking up a sick bag . 

Quote from: Basil on May 11, 2023, 06:35 PMIs there anyone who wants to take a shot at opining on this ?

Happy to opine on a forecast but not their "value"....this is based on the H1 result and the recently released FY23 trading update:

Hard to see how volumes can be down 11.8% while revenues are down 8% - to achieve that requires an extraordinary shift in the average price paid.  It could be "8%" is "8.9%" rounded down.

I believe GM% will be relatively neutral - MFB have shown they can manage those costs.

CM% will be round 24 to 24.5% which is down on last year's 27.2%.  Whilst there will be some cost savings due to lower volumes assembled and delivered, there will be fixed cost components that cannot be avoided.  Note volumes in H2 will be about 100k meals less than H1, which was 730k.

Assuming no reduction in marketing spend versus H1 (they have to sell their way out of this hole) and no change in overheads, then EBITDA comes in at $18m which is at the lower end of the guidance figure of $18-$20m.  Take off ITDA and I get NPAT of $8m for the year (which is about $2m for H2 added to $6m for H1).  YoY drop of -$12m or -60%.  Reducing marketing activity and spend may provide some temporary financial upside to this forecast, but at what future cost?

I also noticed in their HY report they have taken on debt so they are not "debt free".....and current liabilities outweigh current assets by almost 5:1 which is horrendous.  Assuming they remain solvent, they need to turn around the volume declines to get out of this and not pay any sort of dividend until they are debt free.

IMO the investment case = highly speculative.

Nice synopsis Ferg.  Thank you.

Quote from: Ferg on May 11, 2023, 09:57 PM.....and current liabilities outweigh current assets by almost 5:1 which is horrendous.  Assuming they remain solvent......

That says it (nearly) all and enough for me to (again/ still) say, no thank you.

I struggle to see much joy for holders in this result.

(Kudos to Ferg for his accurate prediction in post #226.)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411678

• Revenue of $175.7 million, down 9.4% compared to FY22
• EBITDA of $18.2 million, compared to $34.0 million in FY22
• NPAT of $7.9 million, compared to $20.0 million in FY22
• NZ's most affordable meal kit, Bargain Box, grew active customers by 12% year-on-year
• Transformational investment in automated pick technology rolled out at assembly centres
• Cost reduction initiatives implemented to ensure alignment with current demand

Quote from: Left Field on May 19, 2023, 08:42 AMI struggle to see much joy for holders in this result.

(Kudos to Ferg for his accurate prediction in post #226.)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411678

• Revenue of $175.7 million, down 9.4% compared to FY22
• EBITDA of $18.2 million, compared to $34.0 million in FY22
• NPAT of $7.9 million, compared to $20.0 million in FY22
• NZ's most affordable meal kit, Bargain Box, grew active customers by 12% year-on-year
• Transformational investment in automated pick technology rolled out at assembly centres
• Cost reduction initiatives implemented to ensure alignment with current demand

Their solvency looks like an issue to me - current assets of 4.6 mill / current liabilities of 25.1

I'd be nervous of trading while insolvent if I was a director

I like writing off intangibles and then seeing how a company's balance sheet looks.
MFB 'total equity is $57,978 mil.
However, taking out the $85,263 mil of intangibles the total equity becomes a negative -$27,285 mil.

Using debt to pay dividends in the last 2 years.

That is enough to put most prudent investor off!

Quote from: lorraina on May 19, 2023, 09:17 AMI like writing off intangibles and then seeing how a company's balance sheet looks.
MFB 'total equity is $57,978 mil.
However, taking out the $85,263 mil of intangibles the total equity becomes a negative -$27,285 mil.

My goodness.  I remember how things worked out for Evolve who had a similar situation in their balance sheet with wildly overstated intangible assets.  Massive destruction of shareholder value there too.

The question then is ; do MFB's intangibles have any value,and if so what.?
As far as I am concerned they have between Nil and bugger all,based on current earnings..

Quote from: lorraina on May 19, 2023, 09:33 AMThe question then is ; do MFB's intangibles have any value,and if so what.?
As far as I am concerned they have between Nil and bugger all,based on current earnings..

MFB = More Fudged Books.  The whole float was fudged in my opinion.  Dressing this up as a growth company when you, I and many other experienced investors could clearly see the only reason for some temporary growth was Covid and people unable or too scared to go to the supermarket.

Quote from: Basil on May 19, 2023, 09:36 AMMFB = More Fudged Books.

Mush For Brains if you buy these

Quote from: Crackity on May 19, 2023, 09:39 AMMush For Brains if you buy these

LOL Post of the week !!

A Puke Bag  stock...

Quote from: Crackity on May 19, 2023, 09:39 AMMush For Brains if you buy these

First trade through at $0.20 - 1.5c higher than yesterdays close.

What a dog. (My apologies to all canines out there)

Customers  (however they measure that) grew 12%. But revenue down EBITDA down, NPAT down, Accounts receivable / payable ratio way worse than last year, debt up. What ever they are doing they are doing terribly.

Cash on hand is down to $150,000. Down from $5.9m last year. Their wage bill is $1.38m a month. So another example of a company that doesn't have enough cash to pay wages when they fall due.

And then I dig a bit deeper. "Across our business, we strive for a 40/40/20 gender balance across team members, meaning 40% women, 40% men and 20% open." FFS!. How about striving towards saving your shareholders capital.

These type of companies are just such a big w#nk fest they should be steered well clear of.

A damn shame. I use their product and really rate it.

But they sure are struggling to earn any money from it.

And paying dividends from debt is insane.

Quote from: Sideshow Bob on May 19, 2023, 10:02 AMFirst trade through at $0.20 - 1.5c higher than yesterdays close.

There's none so blind as those who will not see.
Rev/NP through the floorboards. Debt unsustainably high. Balance sheet in tatters, propped up by "intangibles." Negative cash flow and a bank account in o/d. Completely un-investable with no prospect for either a dividend or, in the current environment, growth. A real prospect of going bankrupt.
And yet some continue to throw goods money after bad. Won't get fooled again? Apparently not.

Something to enjoy in your coffee break
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDfAdHBtK_Q

....and applied for a delisting from the ASX in an attempt to save money...

Interesting bit in BusinessDesk ....what a combo though

However, NZ's My Food Bag, which today reported that it profit had nosedived 60% and would delist from the ASX to save money, would neither confirm nor deny whether it was looking at Jenny Craig.

It's chief executive Mark Winter said: "look, M and A is one of those things that it's never really helpful to sort of confirm or deny either way".

Quote from: Basil on May 19, 2023, 11:07 AMSomething to enjoy in your coffee break
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDfAdHBtK_Q

Thanks for that! They sure don't write them like that anymore!

Quote from: Basil on May 11, 2023, 06:35 PMMPG have a LOT of debt and are a complete basket case in my opinion.

Leaving aside the atrocious rort of naive investors' money
The $64,000 question regarding MFB is do they have a sustainable business model or not ?
Is there some point where it might actually be a fair risk reward price to consider "tucking in" ?
I don't know.    Is there anyone who wants to take a shot at opining on this ?
Is there a pretty good chance this is headed to receivership or not ?

Are you talking about MPG (Metro Performance Glas) or MFB (My Food Bag - this thread) or both?

Quote from: Crackity on May 19, 2023, 09:39 AMMush For Brains if you buy these

Sometimes the collective wisdom of the boards gets it right, and this was one of those times. Experienced investors saw through the charade of the IPO, an obvious exit strategy pumped up and promoted to lesser knowing mortals. And, history now shows who was right, it wasn't those who put their dosh into this basket case of an investment.

This is still not investment grade imo, even now. Too many risks and unknowns, flakey financials and balance sheet, not to mention the SP history. It might look cheap SP, but that's only because it was valued extremely high and still has to settle down to its true value, which I think will be a few cents.

Even then, it's still not investable, just a cheap stock with no certainty about its future. It's upsetting imo that the NZX lets this sort of thing happen, they seem so desperate for new listings that they're prepared to bring on basket cases and sacrifice future confidence in the market as a whole.

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 19, 2023, 05:37 PMAre you talking about MPG (Metro Performance Glas) or MFB (My Food Bag - this thread) or both?

Both.

MFB top of NZX leaderboard yesterday. .......followed by PEB, RYM and TSK

What a combo of winners

Gosh says a lot the NZX performance of actual earnings.

Craigs latest labeled

"Don't yet catch a falling knife"

2) Resumption of dividends in FY24 likely to be challenged by large debt balance: Poor cashflow in FY23A - a combination of lower earnings, elevated cash tax, pick system capex, and large dividend payments - have led net debt to lift strongly, to $15.3m (from $2.5m net cash in pcp). While we expect free cash flow (CIPe: $5.4m) to more closely match NPAT (CIPe: $5.0m) over FY24F, the competing demands of debt paydown and the Board's signalled resumption of dividends will need to be balanced. It remains to be seen how this will play out. For now, we assume 1c total dividends will be declared for FY24F, a c.50% payout of 2.1c EPS. This will require $2.4m of cash, leaving $3m of our $5.4m free cash flow forecast for debt paydown. We believe MFB may be better off forgoing dividend payments in FY24 to focus entirely on debt repayment.
Target price -17% to $0.25

Disc not a holder

Craigs Investment Partners slashed its 12-month target price on My Food Bag but retained a "neutral" rating as consumer demand wanes. It now has a 12-month target price of 30 cents a share, down from a prior view of 60 cents a share. Analyst Joshua Dale said an 11.8% drop in delivery volumes in the 10 months to January will weigh on earnings.He's forecasting home deliveries fell 12.2% to 1,345,000 kits in the year that ended March 31 but expects it to fall even further to 1,300,000 in the current financial year.


Only 5 weeks ago.....

I also think there is no way the banks will countenance a dividend on those projected numbers

Disclosure - have never held and probably never will  8)

Quote from: Crackity on May 22, 2023, 09:19 AMCraigs Investment Partners slashed its 12-month target price on My Food Bag but retained a "neutral" rating as consumer demand wanes. It now has a 12-month target price of 30 cents a share, down from a prior view of 60 cents a share. Analyst Joshua Dale said an 11.8% drop in delivery volumes in the 10 months to January will weigh on earnings.He's forecasting home deliveries fell 12.2% to 1,345,000 kits in the year that ended March 31 but expects it to fall even further to 1,300,000 in the current financial year.


Only 5 weeks ago.....

I also think there is no way the banks will countenance a dividend on those projected numbers

Disclosure - have never held and probably never will  8)

Dividend is just pie in the sky. Might be lucky to have even survived that long

Quote from: Shareguy on May 22, 2023, 09:10 AMCraigs latest labeled

"Don't yet catch a falling knife"

2) Resumption of dividends in FY24 likely to be challenged by large debt balance: Poor cashflow in FY23A - a combination of lower earnings, elevated cash tax, pick system capex, and large dividend payments - have led net debt to lift strongly, to $15.3m (from $2.5m net cash in pcp). While we expect free cash flow (CIPe: $5.4m) to more closely match NPAT (CIPe: $5.0m) over FY24F, the competing demands of debt paydown and the Board's signalled resumption of dividends will need to be balanced. It remains to be seen how this will play out. For now, we assume 1c total dividends will be declared for FY24F, a c.50% payout of 2.1c EPS. This will require $2.4m of cash, leaving $3m of our $5.4m free cash flow forecast for debt paydown. We believe MFB may be better off forgoing dividend payments in FY24 to focus entirely on debt repayment.
Target price -17% to $0.25

Disc not a holder

Thanks,  It seems cheap but on a projected eps of just 2.1 cps...put a no growth PE of 8 on that and that's only 16 cps, if they can survive which appears to be a binary 50/50 chance from what I can see so maybe 8 cps is all its really worth and only then as a cheap and nasty bottom fishing punt...

Quote from: Basil on May 22, 2023, 12:54 PMThanks,  It seems cheap but on a projected eps of just 2.1 cps...put a no growth PE of 8 on that and that's only 16 cps, if they can survive which appears to be a binary 50/50 chance from what I can see so maybe 8 cps is all its really worth and only then as a cheap and nasty bottom fishing punt...

As a SKC shareholder if you want 50 / 50 odds ( more or less ) I invite you to have 'fun' at the roulette wheel

I give MFB an 80 % chance of failing by Christmas 2024 

$0.184 on close. All time low.

Quote from: Minimoke on May 23, 2023, 05:04 PM$0.184 on close. All time low.

So far

Quote from: Crackity on May 23, 2023, 06:12 PMSo far

not wrong. $0.170 at close today

Quote from: Minimoke on May 26, 2023, 11:58 PMnot wrong. $0.170 at close today

All time low.

We can probably play this again next month

Quote from: Crackity on May 27, 2023, 12:10 AMAll time low.

We can probably play this again next month

And now only 1.4 cents away from catching Metro Glass

Many laughed in derision when I said MFB share price from IPO was taking the same path as Metro Glass ....never mind

Quote from: winner (n) on May 27, 2023, 07:55 AMAnd now only 1.4 cents away from catching Metro Glass

Many laughed in derision when I said MFB share price from IPO was taking the same path as Metro Glass ....never mind

I reckon they both have the same ultimate terminal value too

Quote from: Crackity on May 27, 2023, 12:23 PMI reckon they both have the same ultimate terminal value too

....race to the bottom eh

mmm  Another stock with an M ticker also in this race, currently in the lead, (not sure for how much longer), at 0.9 cps.  MEE

What's the point? From latest announcement.

Including depreciation, the total cost of the Harvest was $2.8m; the estimated value of that honey has been determined at $700k meaning a total write-down of approximately $2.1m will be included in the 2023 financial result.

You may be right Basil

Yeah mate I saw that news article on the honey harvest from all the bee's for MEE. and was left quite beewildered, you see what I did there with the extra e  :D

Quote from: Crackity on May 27, 2023, 12:10 AMAll time low.

We can probably play this again next month

Its now june and closed toady at $0.168.

Do we need to wait until next month to see if it has a $0.15 in front of it. I don't think so.

Now you jinxed the beautiful downtrend and its already up to 17.2 cents. Bugger!

What's the opposite of a 10-bagger? This could have turned into a beautiful naught dot 10 bagger ($1.50 -> $0.15), and now we might have disturbed the flow ...

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 02, 2023, 10:51 AMNow you jinxed the beautiful downtrend and its already up to 17.2 cents. Bugger!

What's the opposite of a 10-bagger? This could have turned into a beautiful naught dot 10 bagger ($1.50 -> $0.15), and now we might have disturbed the flow ...

The train wreck took a  momentary detour on a siding. Now back on track and down 1.2% to $0.166

Quote from: Minimoke on Jun 02, 2023, 12:43 PMThe train wreck took a  momentary detour on a siding. Now back on track and down 1.2% to $0.166

Choo choo - 16 at the close -and 16 to go before it finds the bridge is out

On the ASX, their peers are both at all time lows,  Marley Spoon MMM (.12) and My Foodie Box MBX (.015)  MBX now with a market cap of a whole $1m. While Marley Spoon has 'achieved' a CR that will see them decamp to the Frankfurt boards!   

Failures  (https://www.smh.com.au/goodfood/sydney-eating-out/high-end-dining-start-up-fix-closes-meal-home-delivery-business-20230331-p5cx20.html) in this space (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/gourmet-meal-delivery-business-providoor-collapses-20230428-p5d42w.html) are piling up.

Down 9.7% on the ASX yesterday. Fortunately only 783 shares.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Jun 04, 2023, 09:17 AMOn the ASX, their peers are both at all time lows,  Marley Spoon MMM (.12) and My Foodie Box MBX (.015)  MBX now with a market cap of a whole $1m. While Marley Spoon has 'achieved' a CR that will see them decamp to the Frankfurt boards!   

Failures  (https://www.smh.com.au/goodfood/sydney-eating-out/high-end-dining-start-up-fix-closes-meal-home-delivery-business-20230331-p5cx20.html) in this space (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/gourmet-meal-delivery-business-providoor-collapses-20230428-p5d42w.html) are piling up.

The pandemic and lockdowns made this sector boom and now, it's the post pandemic bust.

Remember how supermarkets ran out of flour, sugar and baking powder as just about every second household decided to do baking during the lockdowns? Now, you can have any amount you want and at much cheaper prices.

What goes up without sound foundations, must come down.

Quote from: Teitei on Jun 06, 2023, 08:31 AMThe pandemic and lockdowns made this sector boom and now, it's the post pandemic bust.

Remember how supermarkets ran out of flour, sugar and baking powder as just about every second household decided to do baking during the lockdowns? Now, you can have any amount you want and at much cheaper prices.

What goes up without sound foundations, must come down.

MFB never had sound foundations to start with.

wow, train wreck is definitely an apt description.  Almost can't help watch in awe.  Is there a sweepstake going?

Its been a wild round trip for all of them.  Here's Hello Fresh

hellofresh.png

Quote from: arekaywhy on Jun 07, 2023, 09:42 AMwow, train wreck is definitely an apt description.  Almost can't help watch in awe.  Is there a sweepstake going?

Another one bites the dust. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/polar-capitals-hello-foods-20m-in-creditor-claims-in-receivership-and-liquidation/I3NT7VWGUNAXJJZNADBSE5OK7Q/)  Hello foods working in a similar space, manufacturing and distributing ready-to-eat meals.   It sipple out deh.

MFB had a bit of a bounce last few days.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132476168/people-think-theyre-getting-a-good-deal-with-food-kits--but-is-that-really-the-case

Quote from: Stoploss on Jul 06, 2023, 07:56 PMMFB had a bit of a bounce last few days.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132476168/people-think-theyre-getting-a-good-deal-with-food-kits--but-is-that-really-the-case

Didn't they all? Its this thing with the flood coming in and all boats being lifted ...

MFB share price back to 26 cents

Incredible stuff ...was 15 cents not long ago

Makes you wonder if Waterman guys and their new investment vehicle are buying .....motive?

Would have been a SSH ? (I think very unlikely) The volume on the bounce hasn't been large .I think it's more the fact Harbour have stopped selling....always good buying under 20.

Quote from: Stoploss on Jul 10, 2023, 04:42 PMWould have been a SSH ? (I think very unlikely) The volume on the bounce hasn't been large .I think it's more the fact Harbour have stopped selling....always good buying under 20.

Did Harbour get excited with this inflated share price and started sellingbagain

MFB down for day!

AGM plenty of focus on suffering.   (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132766384/my-food-bag-directors-tell-unhappy-shareholders-weve-suffered-as-much-as-you-have) Apparently the $5m "picking technology" has been a "transformational investment." It's a struggle to see how transformational it could be when it's  not actually increasing sales or revenue.  It sounds more like "transference" to me.  Hey everyone, lets focus on the metric of "improved net promoter scores." 

Quote from: Hectorplains on Aug 17, 2023, 08:51 PMAGM plenty of focus on suffering  (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132766384/my-food-bag-directors-tell-unhappy-shareholders-weve-suffered-as-much-as-you-have)Apparently the $5m "picking technology" has been a "transformational investment." It's a struggle to see how transformational it could be when it's  not actually increasing sales or revenue.  It sounds more like "transference" to me.  Hey everyone, lets focus on the metric of "improved net promoter scores." 

My Food Bag directors tell unhappy shareholders, 'we've suffered as much as you have'

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132766384/my-food-bag-directors-tell-unhappy-shareholders-weve-suffered-as-much-as-you-have

right suffered as they still get paid?  who would have ever bought this... shorted it maybe but it looked a bit suspect right from the start..

Quote from: Onemootpoint on Aug 17, 2023, 10:49 PMMy Food Bag directors tell unhappy shareholders, 'we've suffered as much as you have'

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132766384/my-food-bag-directors-tell-unhappy-shareholders-weve-suffered-as-much-as-you-have

This is my favourite  piece of Carterspeak: "When asked by one shareholder about whether the company had any plans to buy other companies, Carter said the company had not earned the right to make acquisitions."  That's a fine way to say: well we've got no cash and no one else is dumb enough to stump up any for us. 

Off market trade today. 10m shares at $0.185.

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 21, 2023, 05:58 PMOff market trade today. 10m shares at $0.185.

And trading today at a new low of $0.152

Think they are starting up a new series or might be a re-run of Nardia's farm this week.
That's fix everything especially if its a re-run  ;)

CFO didn't last a year

Young family more fun and rewarding it seems

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/420334/405565.pdf

My food delivery service (Primal Kitchen) closed down last month.  Both the Christchurch and Auckland branches, while Wellington is still going.  Seems times are tough out there.   

Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 20, 2023, 12:45 PMCFO didn't last a year

Young family more fun and rewarding it seems

Not good when a CFO doesn't last a year.  Family is the rational reason provided so everyone saves face.  I can think of a couple of other reasons a CFO would leave a role so quickly.

(https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/04/11/Photos/ZQ/MW-FK245_red_fl_20170411155150_ZQ.jpg)

Edit: needs a bigger flag...

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 18, 2023, 12:54 PMAnd trading today at a new low of $0.152

Closed Friday at $0.14

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 30, 2023, 07:01 AMClosed Friday at $0.014

$0.14

Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Oct 30, 2023, 08:28 AM$0.14

Fixed!

Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 30, 2023, 09:05 AMFixed!

You might just be ahead of your time MM!!  ;)

Quote from: Sideshow Bob on Oct 30, 2023, 09:53 AMYou might just be ahead of your time MM!!  ;)

I might be. Now its 0.13. At this rate its not going to take me long to have finally picked a correct SP!

Food service app usage appeared to have stabilised.
"We first started asking about food app usage in 2019 and across recent surveys there has been a clear trend towards increased app usage," Holgate said.
"In particular, HelloFresh has recorded exceptionally strong growth since its entrance to the New Zealand market in 2018. In our 2019 survey only 6 per cent of Kiwis said they'd used the service in the last 12 months, but by 2022 this had climbed to one-third of New Zealanders.
"However, our 2023 survey found usage of the major food service apps has plateaued with usage stable across the three largest providers."

The survey found 32 per cent of respondents said they'd used Hello Fresh across the last 12 months (from 33 per cent previously), while usage of Uber Eats was at 30 per cent (31 per cent) and My Food Bag usage at 18 per cent (20 per cent).

From the Herald today

No surprises in that.  Apparently, HF burnt $22m on marketing in NZ last year.  That has bought them significantly more visibility.  They grew revenue but profits fell. 

   

Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 01, 2023, 10:11 AMNo surprises in that.  Apparently, HF burnt $22m on marketing in NZ last year.  That has bought them significantly more visibility.  They grew revenue but profits fell. 

 

The end of the free money era, where companies subsidised consumers by funding their non profitable business operations with endless cash provided by shareholders, will eliminate more than a few household names in many industries over the next year or two.  

Quote from: KW on Nov 02, 2023, 11:05 AMThe end of the free money era, where companies subsidised consumers by funding their non profitable business operations with endless cash provided by shareholders, will eliminate more than a few household names in many industries over the next year or two. 

Jarden's  (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/jarden-slashes-my-food-bag-target-price-by-44) has cut their target price 44% to 25cps but retained their buy rating.

The collapse of Supie  (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/supie-collapse-why-online-supermarket-didnt-have-enough-cash-to-pay-staff/LSRPISR3AZERLCUZ7HPDDPFUHU/) should sound further warning, if any at all is really required, for investment in the 'conveniently delivered to you sector.'

Results due in two weeks. 

In 2022, about 90% of US customers at the five major meal delivery services canceled their subscriptions by the end of the year.  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89u2Ftt23Sk&ab_channel=TheWallStreetJournal)

I'm struggling to see MFB surviving the next 18 months. 

Updated this chart for a laugh

Could say MFB share price doing worse than Metro Glass share price

Doesn't bode well for future

But then it's a new ball game and we should only be looking at where to now, forgetting the past

IMG_5544.jpeg

A thorough debunking of the myth that meal kits are a cheaper option  (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/costing-it-do-meal-kits-really-save-you-money/QG67EKKRGFETBAPUK3CJI6PMXA/) than supermarket shopping. Contrary too to MFB's website claim that their Bargain Box is," a cheaper average price than supermarket delivery."  Sounds like pork pies are on the menu.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 09, 2023, 11:54 PMResults due in two weeks. 

In 2022, about 90% of US customers at the five major meal delivery services canceled their subscriptions by the end of the year.  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89u2Ftt23Sk&ab_channel=TheWallStreetJournal)

I'm struggling to see MFB surviving the next 18 months. 

This is the challenge with MFB investment case - no confidence it will still be around and prospering in 5+ years.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 12, 2023, 06:07 PMA thorough debunking of the myth that meal kits are a cheaper option  (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/costing-it-do-meal-kits-really-save-you-money/QG67EKKRGFETBAPUK3CJI6PMXA/)than supermarket shopping. Contrary too to MFB's website claim that their Bargain Box is," a cheaper average price than supermarket delivery."  Sounds like pork pies are on the menu.

Not Only cheaper but by far superior Quality .
In fact you cannot even find food of the quality and freshness any big supermarket chain .
Is what it is a unprofitable kiwi company pedling top quality fluff battling against a big yank outfit

Harbour ceasing to have substantial holding. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/421555/407039.pdf) They sold the last tranche at 15cps.  40 % discount to where Jarden values MFB, at 25csp and that with a "buy" rating too... Which is all a little odd when Harbour is owned by Jarden. So, it's almost like they aren't following their own advice.  Do as I say, not as I do.  That is if anyone is still listening, after all they were the arranger and joint lead manager of MFB's IPO.

Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 13, 2023, 06:38 PMHarbour ceasing to have substantial holding. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/421555/407039.pdf) They sold the last tranche at 15cps.  40 % discount to where Jarden values MFB, at 25csp and that with a "buy" rating too... Which is all a little odd when Harbour is owned by Jarden. So, it's almost like they aren't following their own advice.  Do as I say, not as I do.  That is if anyone is still listening, after all they were the arranger and joint lead manager of MFB's IPO.

Interesting. Jarden "buy" rating helpful for their asset management selling down. Nothing to see here, all Chinese walls working no doubt.

Or Chinese Whispers.  It was actually "bye" as in get it gone! 

This stock has become a bet on the survival of the business.

If they can stay in business and squeeze out a return on sales of say 5% then shareholders could be rewarded at current price levels.  Richly rewarded if some growth could be achieved eg. diversification, using automation to achieve scale economies.

If the business model is a bust and home delivery is a fad or uneconomic, then kiss goodbye to your dosh. 

So is it a boom-bust industry that will have its time in the sun again when the economy picks up?  Or was it all a mirage that is now coming into focus?  I would say if they can make some money at this point in the cycle, and they can offer a convincing outlook narrative then they could be worth a small wager.  Until then they are a crap-shoot...

Well put Popeye. I don't know which so will stay clear. If I was forced to bet on one of the two options I would back the transitory flash in the pan option (in the spirit of Pumpkin Patch). However, I could be wrong.

I still find it remarkable that many so-called investment professionals (AKA institutions), were stupid enough to believe the lies that this was a growth company when "Blind Freedy" could see the growth they'd experienced in the lead-up to the float was built off the back of Covid lockdown demand.

As for the promotors creative attempts at building contrived apparent demand by limiting investment to recent MFB customers and then strongly encouraging them to "tuck in" as though there was a huge banquet to be had.... predatory behavior at its very worst.

A truly disgraceful fiasco from the beginning to what I think in due course will be the end.

Yep. Pretty typical process and outcome for a Private equity IPO though. MyFoodbag - where private equity eats investors lunch. Adds a bit of cost to the meals for the customers who bought in.

Mid year out, in the Chair's eyes this represents a "successful period of transition."  I'm not convinced that they're out of the woods yet. 

NPAT:  $2.5 million.  58% down on the same period last year. 
Ebitda: $7.4m. 36 % down..
Revenue: $83.8m. 11% down.
Gross margin: 1.4% down
Deliveries: 652K.  80k down
No dividend

Active customers up 57k - 61k but that growth appears to be in their "bargain box."  Which doesn't tally with the minimal reduction in margins. 

The $64,000 question is can they keep trading and stay solvent and profitable given the clear trend down?

Looks like a crapshoot to me so let's say there a 50/50 chance they can stabilize the business at this level of profitability and very slowly build back over time from this base and make $5m this year.  That's almost exactly 2 cents per share so if we assume this is a no growth company and put a commensurate PE of 8 on that fair value is 16 cps (compared to the SP a couple of minutes ago of 13 cps).

But the other 50% chance is a failure and SP = 0 so on a blended valuation basis of 50% survival probability I see fair value at halfway between these two outcomes = 8 cps.  Good luck to holders especially those poor unfortunate's conned into tucking into such an "incredible" IPO opportunity at the "bargain" float price.

For what it's worth MFB has  a Altman Z Score of 2.3.....a solvency test

It is



A score less than 1.8 shows there is a chance of bankruptcy for the company, score between 1.8-2.7 give an indication to the alarming situation that there is a probability for a company to go bankrupt within coming 2 operating years, score between 2.7-2.99 is an alert for a company to adopt caution, while score more than 3 shows favorable financial condition of the firm.

MFB and Supie,  ::)   (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/no-supiehero-in-the-form-of-my-food-bag)

Winter still flagrantly perpetuating his fantastic lie that MFB is a cheaper alternative to supermarket shopping too. 

 Cecilia Robinson, she with the Paul Simon fans for parents, who banked $40+M on the IPO is now buying back in at 12cps...That's less at than 7% the IPO price.  Maybe she plans to take it private again?  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0BUsDf0dxY&ab_channel=PaulSimonVEVO)

I should not have been surprised at the result as Silverblizzard888 predicted it.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431501

I remain unexcited ,about this announcement.

If I cast my  usual eye

Then. Revenue down, cost of sales down and gross profit down from $41.3 to $36.7m

Profit after tax DOWN to $6m from $7.8m

Current liabilities  $16.4m exceed current assets of $1.6m. And I don't like how payables exceed receivables ($10.7m v $0.3m)

Interest bearing debt remains the same

Despite not paying down debt they are increasing divided from $0.0 to $0.005

Outlook looks unexciting. Partnering with NZ olympic team just doesn't spin my wheels. Customer numbers look broadly static in an economic environment that still has sticky high inflation.

Quote from: Minimoke on May 23, 2024, 10:17 AMI remain unexcited ,about this announcement.

If I cast my  usual eye

Then. Revenue down, cost of sales down and gross profit down from $41.3 to $36.7m

Profit after tax DOWN to $6m from $7.8m

Current liabilities  $16.4m exceed current assets of $1.6m. And I don't like how payables exceed receivables ($10.7m v $0.3m)

Interest bearing debt remains the same

Despite not paying down debt they are increasing divided from $0.0 to $0.005

Outlook looks unexciting. Partnering with NZ olympic team just doesn't spin my wheels. Customer numbers look broadly static in an economic environment that still has sticky high inflation.

Whats not to like? (Putting aside overweight ownership by one person)

Agree with all of that, very uninspiring. Better question might be 'what is there to like?'

Quote from: Buzz on May 23, 2024, 10:29 AMAgree with all of that, very uninspiring. Better question might be 'what is there to like?'

Opps thats me cutting  / pasting from another thread ( to remain consistent) in opinion and not editing last line. Fixed!

Quote from: lorraina on May 23, 2024, 09:17 AMI should not have been surprised at the result as Silverblizzard888 predicted it.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431501

It is an great result for Nadia & the kiwi company to be paying debts off & making a profit in the middle of a recession

Arise Dame Theresa Gattung long time holders will be thanking you for co-founding this company

Quote from: notmaurice on Jun 03, 2024, 10:56 AMArise Dame Theresa Gattung long time holders will be thanking you for co-founding this company

They may well join with Telecom holders who enjoyed the halving of their capital in her time at the helm.  Share price was dragged down from double figures to under $5. Damn for them, Dame for her.

I don't hold, but this isn't good:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/522691/my-food-bag-sesame-seed-products-recalled

Seems to beholding steady now at 23 cents , ;)

Results out next week, could give insight into recent consumer behaviour but not expecting any gear change up from the previous FY. No deterioration in itself will be reassuring for this shd

Quote from: Habitz on Nov 14, 2024, 02:32 PMResults out next week, could give insight into recent consumer behaviour but not expecting any gear change up from the previous FY. No deterioration in itself will be reassuring for this shd

Agree some, if they hold their market share in this climate that would be good for their future when the economy recovers .
 Always Interesting Results season

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/retail/my-food-bag-enters-online-food-market-with-bundle-options/F4DSN6HNUFGCLF6ZQNSQL6MYV4/

This looks like a healthy move .... see what I did there hehe

Looks like a good move at fave value but then I thought about it a bit.

"grows to $299 for a large ready-made meal care package, which has eight items including an Italian beef lasagne. Nationwide delivery within 48 hours starts at $9.99". 

$299 plus delivery for 8 items in a ready made meal "care" package? $37 per item? Gosh who are they targeting, people who couldn't care less how much they pay per meal?   Maybe each item is meant to feed 2 people ?

Annabel Langbein's Simply Dinner Kits from New World good value at $27

The chicken enchilladas were yum ...serves 4 but with only 2 of us so that's 2 nights meals sorted ...at $7 each

Sweet and Sour Pork was yum too.

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 18, 2024, 12:33 PMAnnabel Langbein's Simply Dinner Kits from New World good value at $27

The chicken enchilladas were yum ...serves 4 but with onlyb2 of us that's 2 nights meals sorted

Sweet and Sour Pork was yum too.

Sounds interesting, thanks mate.

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 18, 2024, 12:33 PMAnnabel Langbein's Simply Dinner Kits from New World good value at $27

The chicken enchilladas were yum ...serves 4 but with only 2 of us so that's 2 nights meals sorted ...at $7 each

Sweet and Sour Pork was yum too.

Cool just get yourself down to kfc mate a bargain bucket will do you for the week .bang a couple in the microwave sorted

Quote from: Auto Rower on Nov 18, 2024, 05:17 PMCool just get yourself down to kfc mate a bargain bucket will do you for the week .bang a couple in the microwave sorted

Start talking about food and people get interested, with some meal options Heart disease comes later. Does it matter what we think about the companys meal kits or whether we can find cheaper meals of beans and noodles. The question we're asked is are the company shares good value for money?

.     My Food Bag reports increased profit; pays interim dividend


That's all you need to know for

Interim div is 30 percent higher than 2024 final, no Interim last year. Rocking and rolling

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442302/attachment/432394/442302-432394.pdf

Green shoots?.  eps 2.4 cps PE 10 (if they can replicate 1H profit into 2H)
DPS 1.3 cps fully imputed = 1.8 cps gross = 7.5% gross yield, (note the patchy payment history though)

Survived the depths of the economic recession, will we see profit recovery from new product initiatives over time as the economy recovers?    That's the $64,000 question.  Worth a small speculative punt ?

Quote from: Basil on Nov 21, 2024, 11:22 AMhttps://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442302/attachment/432394/442302-432394.pdf

Green shoots?.  eps 2.4 cps PE 10 (if they can replicate 1H profit into 2H)
DPS 1.3 cps fully imputed = 1.8 cps gross = 7.5% gross yield, (note the patchy payment history though)

Survived the depths of the economic recession, will we see profit recovery from new product initiatives over time as the economy recovers?    That's the $64,000 question.  Worth a small speculative punt ?

Hard to say ... and to be fair, they are not on any of my watchlists - i.e. I don't really have a history of research on them.

Having said hat, most of their graphs look to me more like flat lining on a low level with some superimposed jitter.

Looking at the market - there clearly must be a huge market niche for anybody competing against the supermarket duopoly offering seasonal produce at a fair price. However - whether the market structure makes it easy for MfB to grow into this niche, and whether they have what it takes to survive in food retail anyway, I would not know.

The other thing is - as we know from the airline industry - major players like to enjoy their fat margins, but as soon as they notice that a competitor starts to get traction, they start to discount to kill off the competitor. Could MFB survive if the supermarkets decide to hit back with discounts until MFB is out of puff?

I doubt it.

When Peter said '....most of their graphs look to me more like flat lining on a low level with some superimposed jitter.' Reminded me when I first saw them earlier I thought I'd offer them some hints on the judicial use of scaling the Y-axis to make the lines go up instead of flat.

Though hard to make this chart look good
IMG_5992.jpeg

Good debate and worth chucking around a few idea's.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442302/attachment/432394/442302-432394.pdf
See page 16.  Basically, as I see it, the huge super normal demand of Covid is over and they are back to, ironically enough, exactly the same number of deliveries as in the first half of FY20 and almost exactly the same level of profitability $3.2m in 1H FY20 and $3.0m in 1H FY25.

Completely fair to say then that this is a no growth company and as per my post above is quite correctly trading on a no growth PE of 10 so it seems fairly priced to me, certainly no bargain box as some seem to have implied quite recently.

Winner has me spooked that you can get quality Annabel Laingbaign readymade meal kits for 4 for $27 from New World so at this stage I would need a truck load of convincing that MFB's apparently quite expensive readymade so called "care packages" will fly off the shelves.  That said, they do have some 60,000 odd regular customers so some of them are bound to want to order some readymade meal kits to make life even easier but perhaps that comes at some cost in terms of loss of volume from their existing food boxes, who knows?

I'm not seeing a compelling reason to buy relative to other far more well proven companies on similar metrics with a very high likelihood of continued strong growth.  Put simply, would I rather invest capital here in the hope they can grow, or put more capital with Turners or HLG on very similar metrics and a very high probability they will continue to grow based on their long-proven track record?  It's a no brainer for me but good luck to those that want to have a punt on this.  In terms of dirt-cheap penny dreadful punts on the NZX, is probably not the worst of them but I like companies I know I can trust to deliver the goods for me rather than speculating on what might or might not happen with this one. Quite apart from that, there's the lack of liquidity with this one to consider as well.  It doesn't pass this hound dog's sniff test, and I reckon the likelihood of a highly satisfactory feed elsewhere is much better than here.

"Basically, as I see it, the huge super normal demand of Covid is over and they are back to, ironically enough, exactly the same number of deliveries as in the first half of FY20 and almost exactly the same level of profitability $3.2m in 1H FY20 and $3.0m in 1H FY25.

Completely fair to say then that this is a no growth company and as per my post above is quite correctly trading on a no growth PE of 10 so it seems fairly priced to me, certainly no bargain box as some seem to have implied quite recently."

Comparing ebitda and npat for 25H1 with 20H1 the company performed badly. This year was up 900k against ebitda and ended down 200k on the bottom line a total $1.1 million worse performance over 6 months. That would have made a huge difference to the PER. Interest rates have obviously turned a corner, and debt levels are coming down fast. Not sure about the tax and depreciation charges

Maybe Nardia Lim needs to really get herself out there with marketing the brand, perhaps in tandem with her black labrador dog Winstone who is quite a handsome boy.  The public might then connect / relate better with the brand.  60,000 regular customers out of a population of over 5.2 million is just 1.15% penetration rate.
They need some real brilliance (AKA a Tina / Turners type campaign), with their marketing to lift their profile I reckon.  I think Nardia is quite relatable to their target market and labradors are a popular breed...just need to stir in the key ingredient of a truly brilliant and creative marketing campaign to get this puppy moving. Maybe the public will lap up their new products on offer?...only time will tell. 
Market reaction today, down 6.5% on reasonable volume suggests to me the market was expecting more, perhaps a more positive outlook was the spice that was missing from this announcement?  Hope me not giving it the thumbs up today didn't in any way contribute to that decline.  Where too from here for the share price, honestly, who knows, flip a coin ?  Best wishes to holders.

Craigs latest

MFB – STOP PRESS – My Food Bag have reported an in-line interim result, with NPAT of $3.0m exactly half of Josh Dales FY25 forecast of $6.0m
Has run from 16c to 23c over the last six months, and it currently trades at a FY25F P/E of 9.3x.

For interest s sake dd these little sums to get an idea of market penetration or something

MFB made 643,00 deliveries in last six months
That is on average 24,730 deliveries per week
And they have 60,100 customers
Is about 41% of active customers buy in a week

Must mean something

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 22, 2024, 08:21 AMFor interest s sake dd these little sums to get an idea of market penetration or something

MFB made 643,00 deliveries in last six months
That is on average 24,730 deliveries per week
And they have 60,100 customers
Is about 41% of active customers buy in a week

Must mean something

Simple maths tells a complex story, good work. Potentially some customers are once a monthers while others are weekly, Im referring to MFB not sex hehe. We'd buy enough for two weeks at a time by splitting the meals

From their announcement;
Through our understanding of the evolving tastes of
New Zealanders, part of our strategy is to continue to curate
and refine our offering to meet dietary preferences. Since
bringing our ready-made offering under the My Food Bag
brand, re-launching our My Gluten Free Bag and increasing
the number of low-carb options across our meal kit offering,
we've seen an encouraging sales uplift.

I found the above interesting,as I thought they would not bother with "special" diets.
Any one who is on a Gluten Free diet,or low-carb diet, will find having an good choice a pleasant option.
Since I had to go on a Gluten Free diet, I have noticed our local New World are offering a growing choice of products.Going from the space they are giving to GF bread it appears a growing number of people are now on a GF diet.
Seeing MFB's customer numbers stabilize in the current depressed economy,together with them reducing debt,investing in the business,yet rewarding shareholders with a dividend,wife and I added  modests holdings to each of our portfolios.

What is the protection against the supermarkets stealing all their customers? Do holders think MFB is cost competitive with meal kits offered by the supermarkets? I can see the potential here as the economy recovers, with operating leverage NPAT could grow quite well I think.

Craig's say MFB well positioned to capitalise on any domestic recovery and possibly one of the best opportunities if and when that happens.

Disc/ Have taken a modest position based on improved fundamental's and ready meal offering.

Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 17, 2024, 08:42 PMCraig's say MFB well positioned to capitalise on any domestic recovery and possibly one of the best opportunities if and when that happens.

Disc/ Have taken a modest position based on improved fundamental's and ready meal offering.

Insider buying today.

It was discussed at the stocktalk lunch. I agree its a good bottom of the cycle play.

Quote from: Rawz on Dec 19, 2024, 11:58 AMInsider buying today.

It was discussed at the stocktalk lunch. I agree its a good bottom of the cycle play.

By my calcs Tony Carter has added 168,000 this year. Not huge purchases but its positive.

I haven't done a deep dive yet, but the financial statements filed by HelloFresh show how badly the meal kit sector has been hit, and perhaps comparatively how well MFB has done.

Note these are for the year ended 31 December

https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/8148177D222AC9EA98E2B5C525EBA2BA

Reddit posters opine on what they think of Nadia Lim and her husband being awarded the N.Z. order of merit.
For mine, its a total disgrace that the promotors, including those two) pumped the heck out of the IPO encouraging naive investors to "dig in", like there was some great banquet to be had. A good read what reddit users think, (warning Reddit contains some very colorful language) https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1hq50ca/nadia_lim_and_carlos_bagrie_getting_new_year/?rdt=49079

Quote from: Basil on Dec 31, 2024, 08:20 PMReddit posters opine on what they think of Nadia Lim and her husband being awarded the N.Z. order of merit.
For mine, its a total disgrace that the promotors, including those two) pumped the heck out of the IPO encouraging naive investors to "dig in", like there was some great banquet to be had. A good read what reddit users think, (warning Reddit contains some very colorful language) https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1hq50ca/nadia_lim_and_carlos_bagrie_getting_new_year/?rdt=49079

Simon Henry should be line for a honour soon ....for calling out Nadia and My Food Bag antics and his own effort in wiping a billion or so  off his  company's value.

I'm thinking of nominating my dog next year for services to parks and reserves in the Auckland region.  With the amount of manure he so generously provides, I reckon he deserves to be knighted lol

Quote from: Basil on Dec 31, 2024, 08:20 PMReddit posters opine on what they think of Nadia Lim and her husband being awarded the N.Z. order of merit.
For mine, its a total disgrace that the promotors, including those two) pumped the heck out of the IPO encouraging naive investors to "dig in", like there was some great banquet to be had. A good read what reddit users think, (warning Reddit contains some very colorful language) https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1hq50ca/nadia_lim_and_carlos_bagrie_getting_new_year/?rdt=49079

Couldn't agree more.
Totally devalues the system when someone can be given an award for some vague contribution to "industry" when what they actually did was preside over the loss of a lot of other people's money.
Bit like giving Kenyon Clarke (Du Val) an award for "services to the property industry." >:( 

Quote from: Basil on Jan 02, 2025, 03:00 PMI'm thinking of nominating my dog next year for services to parks and reserves in the Auckland region.  With the amount of manure he so generously provides, I reckon he deserves to be knighted lol

Surely you pick it up ?

The system does reward some very deserving people,however there have been too many suspect people receiving a knighthood or made a Dame.

Quote from: Basil on Dec 31, 2024, 08:20 PMReddit posters opine on what they think of Nadia Lim and her husband being awarded the N.Z. order of merit.
For mine, its a total disgrace that the promotors, including those two) pumped the heck out of the IPO encouraging naive investors to "dig in", like there was some great banquet to be had. A good read what reddit users think, (warning Reddit contains some very colorful language) https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1hq50ca/nadia_lim_and_carlos_bagrie_getting_new_year/?rdt=49079

Quote from: Basil on Dec 31, 2024, 08:20 PMReddit posters opine on what they think of Nadia Lim and her husband being awarded the N.Z. order of merit.
For mine, its a total disgrace that the promotors, including those two) pumped the heck out of the IPO encouraging naive investors to "dig in", like there was some great banquet to be had. A good read what reddit users think, (warning Reddit contains some very colorful language) https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1hq50ca/nadia_lim_and_carlos_bagrie_getting_new_year/?rdt=49079

Fully agree. 20 of our dance group were at a Howick popular bar when a man dancing had a heart attack. One of our group raced around and found a first aider who started cpr. After about 10min with 111 calls the firemen arrived and carried on cpr and defibrillator until first response arrived. They cleared the bar and we all went up the road to dance at another popular roof bar. Looking back at those flashing lights and thinking those emergency services have been there for over an hour saving this mans life. I heard he had died and they bought him back and stabilizing him before going to hospital. I thought at the time that these are every day people who should be given awards and not directors who pump and dump. Sorry if this offends anyone, but I believe what I say.   

Over the last couple of days I've accumulated a small holding at 21c. I think MFB could benefit from a general recovery in the overall economy and I'm happy to collect a modest dividend while I wait.   

Accepting that results haven't been great of late, I'm impressed with how they've done relative to HelloFresh.  This gives me confidence that with the operational efficiency they've implemented, they'll be able to deliver value for shareholders. 

https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/03/11/criminal-charges-filed-against-hellofresh-nz/

The problem as I understand it is they often bring in specialist teams of contract cold callers.  Each cold caller gets paid an agreed rate for each person they re-sign to the program so it's no surprise that deceptive conduct is used by unscrupulous cold callers to earn their commission.

Good to see action being taken against the company.  I tried for several months to cancel my subscription to Spotify premium and in the end had to cancel that credit card and get another one.  Be very wary of paying subscriptions to overseas companies, its often very hard to cancel them.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 11, 2025, 11:22 AMI tried for several months to cancel my subscription to Spotify premium and in the end had to cancel that credit card and get another one.  Be very wary of paying subscriptions to overseas companies, its often very hard to cancel them.

Most online banking apps now allow you to lock your card, rather than cancel it.  So you can stop payments for a month or two until they cancel your account, then unlock it again to resume using it. 

Positive update with better second half (revenue up 5 percent). Costs controlled and margin maintained.

Looks like another profit for the full year around $6m (same as last year).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449357

Latest Craig's

Discontinuation of coverage
 
Due to changes in team structure we discontinue coverage of My Food Bag with immediate effect. Our previous ratings, forecasts, and price target should no longer be relied upon.
 

Quote from: Shareguy on May 06, 2025, 08:05 PMLatest Craig's

Discontinuation of coverage
 
Due to changes in team structure we discontinue coverage of My Food Bag with immediate effect. Our previous ratings, forecasts, and price target should no longer be relied upon.
 

Why don't Craig's link to stocktalk or the other place for informed or uninformed comment eh?


Our musings are probably much more use than their muzzled analyst comments anyway I reckon


Lest we forget - from BusinessDesk many years ago when BG was there

My Food Bag has followed a long and winding path to the IPO since having brought Bowler onboard in 2018 to help the company go public.

The first order of business was not being blown out of the water by global rival Hello Fresh which launched in New Zealand that same year. In September last year — having proven it could at least hold its own and amid a covid-boom for food delivery — it appointed PwC to explore options for listing or selling the firm. In the lead up to Christmas, it was revealed investment bank Jarden was involved and had set up meetings with fund managers to pitch them the company.

 During this phase, an informal valuation would likely have emerged prior to the more formal process. An investment bank or brokerage firm running an IPO is called the 'lead manager', one of their key roles is to set the price at which shares will be sold. In this case, Jarden and Craigs Investment Partners are the 'Joint Lead Managers', sharing the role between them. Generally, the lead manager will set a valuation range for the company and invite fund managers to bid for shares at a price within that range. Those bids are collated in a 'book' to settle on a price at which all shares on offer would be purchased — in this case, $1.85 per share. 




Jeez - $1.85 eh 😎 I understand why they don't cover this though maybe they shoulda stopped way earlier 🤔

Maybe Craigs are 'working' on new corporate activity which involves MFB

Just speculating

sweeties....  havnt the big players been making tiny ones for ages...

how do these corner store huts even get listed...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_bar

Quote from: Shareguy on May 06, 2025, 08:05 PMLatest Craig's

Discontinuation of coverage
 
Due to changes in team structure we discontinue coverage of My Food Bag with immediate effect. Our previous ratings, forecasts, and price target should no longer be relied upon.
 

Interesting. I'm not a client, but from their recent public announcements, 'changes in team structure' is likely related to implementation of their strategic partnership (https://craigsip.com/news/craigs-implements-strategic-partnership-with-ta-associates) with TA Associates.

That doesn't tally so well with their Dec '24 announcement (https://craigsip.com/news/craigs-announces-strategic-partnership-with-ta-associates):

QuoteClient outcomes remain our top priority, and there will be no change in the people or our approach to providing outstanding service to our clients.

Can you say, if other NZ companies lost coverage, and what their guidance for MFB was like?

I'm aware that Jarden bullied analysts to give positive coverage of MFB post-IPO. Wondering if Craigs is also guilty. Symbolic handwashing?

Disc: Still holding

Some very good and astute comments from Rawz on the other channel here.  (Nice bright young chap I had the pleasure of meeting at last years end of year gettogether in the Viaduct).

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9084-MFB-My-Food-Bag&p=1096845#post1096845

Rather than stealing any of his thunder as he deserves the credit, I'll just add a bit of my own perspective to explain why I have taken a modest position.

Firstly, sales have stabilized and its good to see that have established a baseline level of business in what is inarguably the bottom of the economic cycle.

New initiatives should drive some momentum, annualized effect of My food bag shop which commenced in Nov 2024 with ready made meal kits and other gift packs.  I see this driving some new momentum but haven't factored anything into my forward estimates.

Debt being reduced by $4.9m to $6.9m...this is HUGE...its almost impossible to overstate how much of a better footing this puts the business on going forward.

Cash flow has increased half on half for the last 2 years as mentioned by RAWZ and is very strong now.  Additionally I note profit increased half on half last year from $3.0m to $3.3m.

eps for FY25 was 2.59 cps a historic PE of 7.7 which is below the standard yardstick I use of 8.5 for a no growth company so you are paying nothing for future growth, in fact quite the opposite.

Looking ahead and being very conservative about it and not factoring in anything for what is hopefully a gradual improvement in the economy, consumer cost of living pressures easing as most face significant mortgage relief this year, and nothing for the new initiatives underway, I see saving from the huge debt reduction and interest rates coming down of circa $500K and lower depreciation this year and am forecast an estimated net profit after tax of $7m in FY26 just from those two changes.  That's 2.78 cps, forward PE at 20 cents 7.2

Turning to dividends, they should be able to pay at least 2 x 0.85 cps divvies, total 1.7 cps fully imputed while contemporaneously paying down debt at a very fast pace but close to 2 cents would not surprise me, certainly by FY27.

Just looking at the gross yield at the 2 cent divvy level which i think is probably coming sooner or later, that's 2.0 / 0.72 = 2.777 cps gross and on a 20 cent share price that's a gross prospective yield of 13.9% !

On top of all that, we've already heard demand in the first 8 weeks of FY26 is growing so I have not factored any demand growth into my forecasted net profit increase.

I think this is worth a modest speculative punt and I think the key factors here are the very strong cash flow and very, very impressive debt reduction which both put the business on a much stronger footing going forward.  If they have done well during the worst recession in decades, maybe its not unreasonable to think they will do better in the years ahead ?

Maybe now really is the time to "tuck in" ?

Quote from: Basil on May 23, 2025, 01:01 PMMaybe now really is the time to "tuck in" ?

Have you tucked in? Or are you still thinking about it?

400,000 shares.  That's not really tucking in for my sized portfolio but its a decent sized entrée  :)    Might go for a "main meal" over the course of the next year if the business keeps performing well, and maybe desert after that 😉

Agree with all you set out Basil.  the only disappointing thing for me was that the NPAT only increased because the effective tax rate was lower this year.

Quote from: Dolcile on May 23, 2025, 01:12 PMAgree with all you set out Basil.  the only disappointing thing for me was that the NPAT only increased because the effective tax rate was lower this year.

Yeah I noted that in my review but also noted depreciation was $500K more, presumably a full years depreciation in FY25 on the plant and equipment capex in FY24.  Its been brutally tough for the average consumer out there.  I think MFB have weathered the deep recession very well indeed.  Its highly commendable they have reduced debt to that huge extent in such incredibly tough times.  I agree with the statement in the company presentation that the business is "well positioned", something you definitely couldn't say with a straight face this time last year.  I think the business has been considerably de-risked. n On a 3 year view they could have no debt and be paying circa 2.5 cps fully imputed dividends per annum.

What do you think Ferg ?

Sorry I should have added, also disappointed that the NPAT didn't increase after such an aggressive debt reduction and OCR cuts.  Perhaps that was mostly toward the end of the FY in which case we should see the full impact of it in FY26.

I would also point out that the improved operating cash flow was partially because they increased creditors year-on-year so it is quite hard to tell what the position would be on a stable working capital position.

Still a lot to like.

Quote from: Dolcile on May 23, 2025, 01:29 PMSorry I should have added, also disappointed that the NPAT didn't increase after such an aggressive debt reduction and OCR cuts.  Perhaps that was mostly toward the end of the FY in which case we should see the full impact of it in FY26.

Due to most mortgages being fixed rate terms, OCR cuts take a long time to filter through to households.  Additionally, even when people are coming up for mortgage renewal, they are choosing to go floating at a higher rate, so they can wait to lock in a lower rate later.  So all up, not much difference in terms of consumer disposable income.  That has apparently only just begun to change, as the weighted average mortgage rate across existing mortgages begins to drop.

The peak yield across all mortgages was 6.39% in October 2024.  By December the yield across all mortgages was down to 6.29%, by March 2025 the yield was down to 6.00%.
The peak yield on floating rates was 6.99% in August 2024. It was 6.03% by December 2024, and 5.63% by March 2025.
For fixed rate yields the peak was 6.34% in October 2024. In December 2024 it was down to 6.33%, and in March 2025 it was 6.06%

Quote from: Basil on May 23, 2025, 01:18 PMWhat do you think Ferg?

What do I think?  I think thinking is important.....

I haven't looked at this in any detail whatsoever.  I did a review on the other site back when it listed.  It is a high volume low margin logistics business.  Per your notes they seem to have weathered the storm and possibly turned a corner...that's your take?

Quote from: Ferg on May 26, 2025, 10:05 AMWhat do I think?  I think thinking is important.....

I haven't looked at this in any detail whatsoever.  I did a review on the other site back when it listed.  It is a high volume low margin logistics business.  Per your notes they seem to have weathered the storm and possibly turned a corner...that's your take?

Yes.

Big volumes going through this month

Today was over 2 million

Maybe somebody getting ready for a takeover at 50 cents ....but pleased there seems to be some keen sellers

Interesting IMG_6153.jpeg

Quote from: winner (n) on May 26, 2025, 07:26 PMBig volumes going through this month

Today was over 2 million

Maybe somebody getting ready for a takeover at 50 cents ....but pleased there seems to be some keen sellers

Yes, I had tried to get a read on what is going on here also, in end concluded that at least in the interim the likelihood that it is yielding well enough the SP must be underpinned somewhat and that a 100 000 shares at current levels would be worthwhile at current price. 1c uplift will = to a + $1k capital accretion so picking no likely sleep loss possible arising here.

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/market-news   Its a shame they don't do a little bit more for their clients and work out the gross yields as its not that hard to do and I have done it for them in the various threads.
Disc: I have been adding MFB, ARG and KPG in recent days, all exceptional dividend payers and all presently trade cum a dividend in June.  I am expecting the RBNZ to cut 25 bps today, and again by 25 bps in their July and August meetings.  By the end of August term deposit and call account rates will be VERY low.  Cash at times in recent months has been king in the recent extreme volatility but we are entering a period where cash and short term deposits will give truly pathetic returns after tax, probably not enough to keep up with inflation.

RAWZ other channel

QuoteI think it is the fundamentals. I think people are looking at the deliveries chart decline flattening off and are thinking wow this business is producing a heap of cash for its market cap at the bottom of the cycle. When the economy improves and deliveries increase the cash this bad boy produces will increase with scale.

And while we wait to see this theory play out we are rewarded with a nice dividend even at current levels.

Agree 100%.  It was interesting to note in the Turners call they called out trading conditions last winter was being worse than during the GFC.  Underpinning my investment in MFB is the stabilization of deliveries post Covid, in arguably not just the bottom of the economic cycle, but the worst bottom in several decades.

Chart certainly looking encouraging now with a clear breakout on much higher volume than normal.  I'll leave others to post an image if they want to.  In the short term we could see a test of last August's high of 28 cps.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/453707/attachment/446001/453707-446001.pdf

Interesting disclosure.  Getting up there.

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/447370.pdf

Hello Fresh plead guilty to tricking customers into renewing their subscriptions, paywalled https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/retail/hellofresh-pleads-guilty-to-five-charges-after-subscription-traps-tricked-customers/7RZZAJMTMRHXTM2AKI6YM4POZA/

Quote from: Basil on May 23, 2025, 01:01 PMJust looking at the gross yield at the 2 cent divvy level which i think is probably coming sooner or later, that's 2.0 / 0.72 = 2.777 cps gross and on a 20 cent share price that's a gross prospective yield of 13.9% !

On top of all that, we've already heard demand in the first 8 weeks of FY26 is growing so I have not factored any demand growth into my forecasted net profit increase.

I think this is worth a modest speculative punt and I think the key factors here are the very strong cash flow and very, very impressive debt reduction which both put the business on a much stronger footing going forward.  If they have done well during the worst recession in decades, maybe its not unreasonable to think they will do better in the years ahead ?

Maybe now really is the time to "tuck in" ?

Maybe I should have tucked in properly and had a main meal and desert....never mind I have a decent sized entrée under my belt and its been a very "tasty" experience and has definitely whet my appetite for more..  Maybe soon is the time for the main course ?  Updated trading conditions at the annual meeting tomorrow will be very interesting.  No question we're right at the bottom of the current economic cycle.  More interest rate cuts coming starting next week with the RBNZ cutting.  Interest.co.nz article reckons about 50% of mortgage holders fixed mortgage rates are due for a big reset lower over the next 6 months.    2.777 cps gross is still more than a 10% gross yield at 25 cents.  Hmmm  A positive update tomorrow could see recent high's of 28 cents tested and served up on a hot platter, quite quickly.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 12, 2025, 01:02 PMMaybe I should have tucked in properly and had a main meal and desert....never mind I have a decent sized entrée under my belt and thinking about whether to tuck in for a main meal.  Updated trading conditions at the annual meeting tomorrow will be very interesting.  No question we're right at the bottom of the current economic cycle.  More interest rate cuts coming starting next week with the RBNZ cutting.    My investment in MFB has been a pretty "tasty" experience so far and its whet my appetite for more.

Growth momentum is building Basil ..... lower mortgage interest payments coming through already and many more households feeling pretty chirpy and buying meal kits

Expect YTD orders I up 10%

And don't forget overhead cost is essentially fixed meaning most of the increased margin flows straight through to cash flow ..... higher dividends

I reckon F26 divie will be over 3 cents ...jeez 25 cents is cheap eh

You going to ASM .... I migh5 nt even watch as Carter is so unenthusiastic about life it puts you off

Yeah, I might wander along, see how I feel tomorrow morning.  11.00 a.m. is a reasonable hour for this old dog.
Downsides - Have to listen to Tony Carter's slow methodical speech drawl.
Upsides.  The view out over the Waitemata harbour from the 30th floor of the PWC building should be very good on a fine day and I can wander down to the boat and have a celebratory drink or two afterwards if the trading update is good and still be home in time for my dog's afternoon walk.  You would hope that being a food distribution company and the meeting ending at lunch time there would be a reasonable feed on offer afterwards.  I've more or less finished the big job I've been working on so why not.

P.S. Just grabbed a 50 gram sausage roll at the bargain price of 25.5 cents, very tasty.  Need to get something extra under my belt just in case there's a huge rush at the banquet to tuck in tomorrow.. I'm feeling ravenously hungry for more but will try and hold out for the meeting tomorrow just to make sure the extra food is hot, fresh and tasty.

The issue of more performance rights saw me sell on the 7th July.

"there are now 13,274,338 Performance Rights on issue"

2.77% of the capital.  I guess it all depends upon and needs to be considered in tandem with the base pay rates of key executives.  Only 7 people earning more than $250K including the CEO on just over $600K doesn't seem unreasonable to me for a company of this market cap.  A cynic would say they are making sure they are tucking in with these free performance rights but in tandem with not unreasonably high salaries for top executives it doesn't give me any untoward level of indigestion.  Might bring it up at the meeting and ask what these targets are for FY26 to be granted so many free shares.

Lorriana  I thought you were all for Management having skin in the game or the 'owners eye' as you put

Incentives seem aligned to total shareholder return

Yes however the owners/promotors already cleaned out the pot when MFB listed.
Now the business is coming right,the directors are at the pot again,when I think shareholders should be rewarded first.
Performance rights are free gifts to staff in MFB's case. Over 13 million is a lot of free gifts.
Just looks to me as though MFB are putting shareholders in the far que.

Never fear, Beagle is here. Gives me something to bark about tomorrow. If you don't mind I might use your words "cleaned out the pot when it listed" as part of the barking. Someone needs to make some noise about this so it doesn't get any more generous in the future. Beagle likes barking at Tony Carter.

Good one Basil ...I'll cast coverage to the big screen and watch the venerable Tony squirm


Might think up a few questions for online to keep them occupied.

Basil ...you voting NO to reappointment of Tony? I have.

I think just the one position as director of WHS would be plenty to keep him occupied at his age lol  See how I feel about him tomorrow.  He's not an unlikeable guy.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 12, 2025, 03:57 PMNever fear, Beagle is here. Gives me something to bark about tomorrow. If you don't mind I might use your words "cleaned out the pot when it listed" as part of the barking. Someone needs to make some noise about this so it doesn't get any more generous in the future. Beagle likes barking at Tony Carter.

After I posted was was not sure whether instead of "cleaned out the pot", I should have said "cleaned out the cookie jar" or "drained the well"...
Be careful mentioning "the far que"....lol

Perhaps the performance shares should only be issued if MFB's share price exceeds their listing price..?

Quote from: lorraina on Aug 12, 2025, 05:33 PMPerhaps the performance shares should only be issued if MFB's share price exceeds their listing price..?

I might mention that lol

Quote from: lorraina on Aug 12, 2025, 05:33 PMAfter I posted was was not sure whether instead of "cleaned out the pot", I should have said "cleaned out the cookie jar" or "drained the well"...
Be careful mentioning "the far que"....lol

Perhaps the performance shares should only be issued if MFB's share price exceeds their listing price..?

Or maybe listing price plus 50% would be good performance. Will not be at meeting today, in my wobbly condition I am not feeling comfortable 30 stories up in the air, but should be a good view on this sunny day. 

The market did not like this;
"While we remain confident in our ability to manage inflationary cost pressures, we expect the
Gross Margin for FY26 H1 to close below prior year as our price increases have lagged food price
inflation".
Currently MFB's share price is down 10%.

Quote from: lorraina on Aug 13, 2025, 11:27 AMThe market did not like this;
"While we remain confident in our ability to manage inflationary cost pressures, we expect the
Gross Margin for FY26 H1 to close below prior year as our price increases have lagged food price
inflation".
Currently MFB's share price is down 10%.

Yes mate, it was a profit downgrade

Prob still get their bonuses as sales are up 

Fair bit of "barking " at the AGM re the performance rights. Personally I think the shares should be issued above the market so they have to actually perform to make them worthwhile taking up.
Thank you Basil for keeping them on the straight and narrow.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 12, 2025, 03:57 PMNever fear, Beagle is here. Gives me something to bark about tomorrow. If you don't mind I might use your words "cleaned out the pot when it listed" as part of the barking. Someone needs to make some noise about this so it doesn't get any more generous in the future. Beagle likes barking at Tony Carter.

Thank you Basil for grilling the Board. Also mentioning the div.

Quote from: Stoploss on Aug 13, 2025, 12:18 PMFair bit of "barking " at the AGM re the performance rights. Personally I think the shares should be issued above the market so they have to actually perform to make them worthwhile taking up.
Thank you Basil for keeping them on the straight and narrow.

The responses weren't very convincing were they ..squirmed their way through eh

Yeah, lots of weasel words and more after the meeting.  Incentive schemes now endemic in the system with senior employee remuneration packages was the excuse after the meeting from Mark, head of the remuneration committee.  Not convinced with the answers.

Margin compression is a first half story and has been partially addressed with a price increase on 1 July and they are considering another one.

Those who tuned in would have heard what I had to say about the dividend and there was more afterwards in discussions with several directors.  I made the point loud and clear that the share price and dividend level are inextricably linked and most investors saw it as an income stock, (which is the reason I brought in).

I had a good chat with Tony after the meeting and suggested they had made very good progress already with debt reduction and perhaps a 60/40 split between cash dividends and debt reduction is now appropriate. I think he broadly agreed with that.  What is clear is the business is kicking out a LOT of cash flow.  Depreciation, (a non cash item) at $5.9M is nearly as much as profit after tax itself so they are certainly capable of knocking that debt on the head completely by the end of FY27 and paying MUCH higher dividends thereafter  As those of you who watched will have noticed I made it crystal clear I'd like to see 2.0 cps in FY26.  Looking further out once they have debt repaid I think somewhere in the range of 3-3.5 cps fully imputed from FY28 is quite a realistic assumption.

I think they are doing okay in a VERY weak economy.  I bought this for dividend income and growth in dividends in the years ahead and I think the investment case remains very robust indeed on that basis.  I think its clear they have established a baseline to their business and they are pleased with that.  Whether this is capable of growth...I think the jury is out but we are at the bottom of the economic cycle and the cost of living crisis is chronically acute for many people so as the economy, hopefully, gradually improves, hopefully that translates into a gradual improvement in earnings.

Other brief thoughts from discussions after the meeting.  Cecelia seemed quite keen on the idea of including pet food in the mix.  I suggested she get Nardia's Labrador dog Winston more involved in the advertising in much the same way as Genesis do with their Beagle advertisements or ASB do with their St Bernard adds.  Gives a warmer family feel to the advertising and engenders a warmer emotional connection with the brand.  As head of the marketing committee she seemed to like that idea.

Metrics: I think 1.75 - 2.0 cps fully imputed is on the cards for FY26.  At the mid point 1.875 / 0.72 = 2.6 cps gross which gives a gross yield of 11.3% on a share price of 23 cents.   In my opinion the chances of that rising slightly in FY27 is good and quite a lot more from FY28 onward is very good.
That's all for now.  Happy to hold a modest position for increasing income in the years ahead.

Businessdesk article. 
My Food Bag expects margin loss as prices lag inflation
Gregor Thompson | Wed, 13 Aug 2025

My Food Bag chair Tony Carter and its chief executive, Mark Winter. (Image: Supplied)

My Food Bag says it expects to take a margin hit as food inflation outpaces its ability to raise prices.

In his address at the meal-kit delivery firm's annual meeting on Wednesday, chair Tony Carter said sales rose 3.8% over the first 4 months of the financial year compared with the same period last year.

Carter added the firm expects first-half gross margin "to close below prior year as our price increases have lagged food price inflation".

During questions, one shareholder asked if the company expected to match prices with inflation going forward. 

Chief executive Mark Winter said My Food Bag closely tracked food price inflation and had a number of considerations when it came to price setting.

"We're working very closely with our suppliers, both in terms of actual and forecast [price] movements. We'll take action where it makes sense to increase prices."

Shares dipped 8%, or 2 cents, to 23 cents after the initial market announcement before stabilising at 24 cents in the afternoon.

Shareholder questions

Carter, who was up for reelection at the meeting, faced questions about the performance of the company's share price, which has fallen by over 85% since the company listed in 2021.

"Is there anything you think you can do better going forward than what you've done in the last four years since the company listed?" one shareholder, Roger Clarke, said.

Carter said that the company can always do better and acknowledged that the listing took place at a time when My Food Bag's prospects looked positive.

"It clearly floated at a very optimal time for the existing shareholders," he said. "It was coming out of covid-19. And like a lot of businesses, it got a big lift from an environment that we thought at the time might be a permanent change.

"I can't wave a magic wand and get it back to what it was at the [initial public offering]."

Clark followed up by drawing attention to management incentive schemes, which he argued were excessive given his view of the company's performance.

My Food Bag posted full-year revenue of $162.1m for the 12 months ended March 31, down slightly on the prior year. Net profit after tax (npat) rose 5% year-on-year to $6.3m.

"What I see here is a pretty gold-plated performance bonus system for a company that's struggling to get back into growth mode."

He highlighted that the company issued 5.9 million shares on July 1 to senior management when the share price was 23 cents and nearly 7 million performance rights on July 7.

"I see the company trending down and then finding a floor and stabilising. Your net profit before tax was identical FY24 to FY25," he said. "Why is the company paying $1.36m in the bonus shares, which I understand are free, aren't they?"

In response, Carter said issues are a "very important" part of the remuneration structure.

"We incentivise management to perform, and that was part of the mix ... If we don't reward our management, we won't have them to drive the improvement in performance.

"We have every confidence in the management we have got, and we want to see them fairly rewarded for their efforts."

Dividend policy

Having paid a 1.5-cent full-year dividend, the board reiterated guidance that it expected to pay dividends in 2026 "based on strong free cash flow generation".

During the meeting, an investor asked what the current dividend policy was, given it cannot currently be found in the company's annual report.

Winter said that over the last 12 months, the company has based dividends on splitting free cash flow between dividends and debt repayment.

Carter highlighted the company had managed to reduce debt to $6.9m from $11.8m between 2024 and 2025.

"When our debt gets down to zero, we'll have to reconsider our dividend policy," he said.

"It's probably a matter that's temporary. In terms of the strong free cash flow, are getting our debt down very quickly."

Quote from: Basil on Aug 13, 2025, 04:44 PMShareholder questions

Carter, who was up for reelection at the meeting, faced questions about the performance of the company's share price, which has fallen by over 85% since the company listed in 2021.

"Is there anything you think you can do better going forward than what you've done in the last four years since the company listed?" one shareholder, Roger Clarke, said.

I zhink I know zhat 'Roger Clark' and zhis link confirms eet.
https://www.rogeralbertclarkrally.org/roger-clarke-how-to-leave-a-legacy-when-your-career-is-over.html

He vas a top British rally driver who 'vaked hees death', to live out ze rest of hees life quietly een New Zealand.  And yes I can zee ze appeal of 'My Food Bag' to heem.    Drive to ze end of a rally ztage and ztop ze clock.   Zhen get a 'my food bag' tossed to ze co-driver zo zhey can both 'lunch out' on the following touring stage, before zerious competition ztarts again.

Makes perfect zense!   

Zounds like Chair Tony vould have liked to issue heem vith a speeding ticket though?

RB

But on the important stuff, did you get a feed Beagle?  

Pretty decent spread of finger food.  Some interesting quiche and other similar type stuff that looked like Nardia had made it.  Always conflicted after meetings like this as I want to talk as much as possible to the directors and not appear to be a fat scoffing Beagle at the same time.  Its a delicate balancing act lol 

You need to make use of your doggie bag.

I tuned in for the giggles, especially Tony's response to question about repurchases: he declined to give an opinion on what the shares should be worth, but then suggested that after a repurchase 'sugar rush' the shares would tend to go 'back down' to their real value.

Freudian slip perhaps, and maybe I'm misquoting - anyone have a recording link or transcript?

Disc: Still holding

Quote from: Basil on Aug 13, 2025, 06:39 PMPretty decent spread of finger food.  Some interesting quiche and other similar type stuff that looked like Nardia had made it.  Always conflicted after meetings like this as I want to talk as much as possible to the directors and not appear to be a fat scoffing Beagle at the same time.  Its a delicate balancing act lol 

Great questions Basil. Unless they increase their offering then I don't see much growth past incremental in an improving economy. We get MFB and the boxes have a lot of unused space.

Not a holder at moment but will look at this again once we have sold the do up property.

NBR Headline..

NBR
 
Investment

 

My Food Bag director defends management share plan

 

Shareholder accuses the 'struggling' company of having a 'gold-plated performance bonus system'.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 13, 2025, 06:39 PMPretty decent spread of finger food.  Some interesting quiche and other similar type stuff that looked like Nardia had made it.  Always conflicted after meetings like this as I want to talk as much as possible to the directors and not appear to be a fat scoffing Beagle at the same time.  Its a delicate balancing act lol 

When a "Special Dividend" is on offer at AGM's it is every shareholders responsibility to make full use of that offer. Might be worth more and be more enjoyable than the dividend that arrives in the bank account.

Question at ASM was about them getting some analyst coverage

Usual 'we'll have a look at' non-committal response

No brainer, pay Forbar to do a 25 page rave and a 60 cent target

That'll get market interested

 

NBR

QuoteThe board of My Food Bag has defended issuing performance rights to senior managers, saying they deserved to be fairly rewarded for their  efforts.
A shareholder at the meal kit company's annual meeting today raised the topic, referring to a market update on July 1 which reported 5.9 million new shares had been issued.
The shareholder noted the rights were worth 23 cents per share at the time they were issued, effectively adding $1.36 million in bonuses for management. He questioned why the company was paying that much, given its financial performance.

My Food Bag chair Tony Carter, who was up for re-election, said the rights were part of the remuneration structure put in place for management.  "It's very important we incentivise management to perform, and that was part of the mix. If we don't reward our management, we won't have them to drive the improvement in performance. We have every confidence in the management goal, and we want to see them fairly rewarded for
their efforts."
The shareholder highlighted a $600,000 package issued to My Food Bag's chief executive Mark Winter, and said he assumed it would be "considerably higher" in FY26.
According to the FY25 annual report, Winter's base salary of $546,000 was topped up with more than $57,000 in short-term and long-term incentives, as well as $22,000 in 'other' benefits. The total added up to $625,000. Independent director Mark Powell said the plans in place were sensible and would be based on performance. "To be achieved, they will have to perform."
'Gold-plated' system
 The shareholder also noted a subsequent market update on July 7, reporting that more than 6.9 million additional performance rights had been issued for FY26, taking the total performance rights on issue to 13.27 million. "That has a current outstanding value, if they were all exercised today, of $3.32m. To me, the company is struggling in a very tough economy. It's really important you keep your costs down. What I see here is a pretty gold-plated performance bonus system for a company that's struggling to
 get back in growth mode." Powell defended the performance of management and the broader company by pointing to a 3.8% increase in sales over the first four months of FY26. "Yes, that's what's achieved if we get a full performance, but that performance has got to be earned," he said.
The shareholder replied: "I guess my concern, Mark, is that if the company does perform better in FY26 and FY27, that's ostensibly a function of the economy recovering, not anything specific that management had done." The comment earned a quick "we might disagree" from Carter, and Powell said he also disagreed. "There's always an economic picture, but I don't think it is just a function of the economy."
My Food Bag director Mark Powell.
 Carter added that the performance rights were self-funded, being derived from meeting KPI targets.
"Right, well, I hope you set tough KPI targets," the shareholder said. 
Powell said it was a good question and a fine line. "We've got to look at keeping people who are good performers in a market where other
 companies would look at people, but you want performance as well."
 Trading update and re-elections
 In its presentation to shareholders, the company said it remained confident it could manage inflationary cost pressures, and expected the gross
 margin for the first half of FY26 to be lower than the prior year, as price increases hadn't kept up with inflation.
 The board confirmed it expected to continue paying dividends, and shareholders were told cash was being split equally between paying down debt
 and dividends. The company's dividend policy would be reconsidered once debt had been eliminated.
Over the past few months, My Food Bag has launched a new campaign for its Bargain Box, and launched a new meal plan (GLP-1 Support) driven
 by the arrival of new weight loss medications in the New Zealand market. It has also extended its diabetes plan.
Carter and My Food Bag co-founder Cecilia Robinson were both re-elected to the board.
My Food Bag is expected to report interim results for the first half of FY6 in November.

I need to stay on their case. and keep hounding them about this.

I take it no one on the top table paid $1.60 for their shares.?

Quote from: lorraina on Aug 14, 2025, 12:56 PMI take it no one on the top table paid $1.60 for their shares.?

Don't think so.  In  discussions after the meeting Cecilia Robinson mentioned to me that the share price got down to 12 cents at one point and she was buying and asked me what I had paid, (just under 20 cents).

I met a dear old lady there who I bumped into while getting a cup of tea who bought shares at the IPO. She said she felt that with it being a food company and Nardia Lim's involvement that she would do alright.  Poor thing, I expressed my sympathy to her and said its really quite scandalous what the promoters listed this company for.  She agreed and said she felt as if she was duped.   She told me at last years annual meeting she stood up and reminded the directors that they had a long way to go to get back to the listing price and admonished them on how far the shares had fallen.  Good on her I reckon...she was pretty old and a bit frail looking.   

A big thank you to you mate for highlighting this whole performance share rights issue to me in the first place.  It somehow slipped under my nose...I had a pretty bad flu in early July from memory, so my nose for sniffing out problems probably wasn't working properly at that time.

You have put in the hard yards.
Certainly focussed their attention..lol
Pity they did not listen to the old lady at last year's agm.

Carter threw $100k in the pot at the IPO

Bought a few more at $1.71 and $1.63 soon afterwards as a sign of confidence lol

Been averaging down ever since. Best buy was 100,000 at 15 cents

Always a good sign when Chairman buys eh


Now holds 524k shares at average of 59 cents

Better get Forbar on the case eh

What Cecelia's Robinson's back story ?  Did she flick off truckloads in the IPO ?  She wasn't bashful in being quite forthcoming yesterday to me saying she'd bought some at 12 cents.   

Quote from: Basil on Aug 14, 2025, 01:13 PMDon't think so.  In  discussions after the meeting Cecilia Robinson mentioned to me that the share price got down to 12 cents at one point and she was buying and asked me what I had paid, (just under 20 cents).

I met a dear old lady there who I bumped into while getting a cup of tea who bought shares at the IPO.

It all sounds convivial, but I imagine Cecilia remembered the old lady and maintained a handbag swing distance from her throughout.

She didn't look too comfortable taking the podium to make her case for director reelection. At final tally 3.76% voted against (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456727/attachment/449428/456727-449428.pdf), and I reckon she was expecting worse. (For background, only 0.08% opposed her election (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/397259/attachment/376926/397259-376926.pdf) in August 2022, by which time the share price was already down 60% on the offer.)

Tony fared better with a 1.86% 'no' vote, and even got applause from the room.

I suppose it's easy for the longer-suffering shareholders to vent at the person in the room who profited most at their expense in the IPO (reportedly $30M (https://www.facebook.com/groups/800597610044872/posts/9129181680519715/)), but to be fair to Ms Robinson her only mention in the IPO prospectus (https://investors.myfoodbag.co.nz/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/yjIwqod6gUO7ZC-T4Wdz6Q/file/doc/My_Food_Bag_PDS.pdf) was as an existing shareholder, whereas Tony's name was all over it. He even doubled down (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/436487/my-food-bag-clarifies-share-float-financial-statement) in the media that the sky-pie forecasts underpinning the offer price would be met. Can't just wave your magic hands and take that back.

Quote"The board believes that the prospective financial information contained in My Food Bag's product disclosure statement dated February 11, 2021 (PDS) has been prepared with due care and attention, and considers the assumptions, when taken as a whole, to be reasonable at the time of preparing the PDS," Carter said.

"My Food Bag is confident that it will achieve its prospective financial information, but any suggestion that the business will outperform those financial results should be disregarded."

Our Cecilia ...and hubby and ALP Trust

Pre IPO she had 21.8 million shares in MFB

Sold 14.3 million into the IPO ...maybe not the $30m touted but at least $25m

So after IPO has 7.4 million shares

In December 2023 bought 7.0 million more at 12.5 cents ($875k) and a few days later another 4.6 million at 15 cents ($687k)

Current holding 19,015,933 shares

Hey Basil ...suppose you smiled with this question at ASM

From NBR -

My Food Bagged
At My Food Bag's annual meeting this week, the board was asked whether it had a "man ban" to show good diversity. The question was thrown to director Mark Powell, who said the company didn't discriminate against men, while adding, "Otherwise I don't think myself or [chair] Tony [Carter] would be sitting here". Out of the five directors at My Food Bag, three are female and two are male. As of March 31, the company employed 111 women and 100 men, compared with 111 and 95 respectively in the year prior. My Food Bag's gender pay gap for the year ending March 31 sat at 3.44%, up from 1.35% during the previous corresponding period. Fewer, better paid men, then – not exactly a ban.

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 15, 2025, 09:08 AMIn December 2023 bought 7.0 million more at 12.5 cents ($875k) and a few days later another 4.6 million at 15 cents ($687k)

Current holding 19,015,933 shares

Kudos to Cecilia for that 'dogfood buyback'. That showed faith in the company and cushioned the share price decline when no-one else would go near it. Stellar trade too - sell high, buy low, go large.

IMO all non-founding directors should have sizeable holdings of that scale, paid for with their own money. It keeps everyone's interests aligned. That goes for all public companies.

Just got this email from Southern Cross.

Not sure what to make for dinner? HelloFresh have you covered!

As a Southern Cross member, you can now sign up to HelloFresh and get $100 OFF across your first 5 boxes, followed by a 10% weekly discount for the remainder of your subscription.   

The discount code (automatically applied) entitles you to a voucher for: $30 off your first box (including standard delivery), $20 off your second and third boxes, $15 off your fourth and fifth boxes, and 10% off your sixth to fifty-second boxes (total promotional value of up to $1,298, based on the largest box size and only valid on a household's first fifty-two boxes, excluding upgrades and add-ons).

I think its pretty common that all the food and meal delivery competitors have good offers for new customers.  Nardia offering up to $209 off for new customers of My Food Bag https://www.myfoodbag.co.nz/?&pr=5020SPRING
It'll be interesting to see how MFB has navigated the last six months when they report next month.   Gosh the economy has been in deep recession, there's no doubt about that.  Just as well the market is forward looking and lots of busy customers are getting serious mortgage rate relief when they refix their mortgages now.  Gosh, almost all the main banks are now doing deals at 4.49%, that's a huge reduction on where mortgages were signed over the last 2 years.

Hopefully RBNZ cut 50 bps off the cash rate next week to breath some life into the economy and consumer spending.  My sense is the worst of the economy is now behind us.  Why Worry ? There's always sunshine after rain, these things have always been the same.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_03uXQiz6eY

I reckon it will be pretty flat with the decline in margin offset by interest payment reductions. With food inflation climbing again I think there are better opportunities to be had even if the PE ratio is likely around 10. Maybe if it drops back below 20 cents it could be worth a punt on the hope of OCR cuts easing middle class budgets, because ultimately this is a volume story.

I have been looking at this but I'm not jumping at the buy button. The last result to me was a downgrade of sorts. Yes I agree Basil that there is a lot of money coming into mortgage holders accounts however costs are ramping up. They are certainly discounting the boxes. My wife only buys when  she gets a 30 percent discount.

I'm not convinced at current price.

Fair enough guys. I only have a very modest sized position.  I think its more a FY27 and FY28 dividend growth story, although nothing wrong with my estimate of 1.75 cps this year fully imputed, 2.43 cps gross = 11% gross yield.  Looking forward to them reporting their interim result late next month and in effect testing the resilience of this one and seeing how they performed across the bottom of the economic cycle.

Signs H1 result will be pretty good

I say sales up 6% on pcp and margins the same as pcp

In middle of next year input costs won't be much of a problem so F27 looking pretty good as well

MFB turning over a new leaf? Profits branching nicely, but staff celery rising, though lettuce margins holding firm. Green shoots everywhere; looks like a real celery-bration if the business is blooming.

Was a strong move up on high volume 2.5 to 3 times normal. Could we pass 30 cents this week.

Reporting half year results on 20 November, not long to wait.

I see Hellofresh has come in for a very special mention in the Consumer Yeah Nah awards. 
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/list-of-products-businesses-on-consumer-nzs-anti-awards/7DMRVGDVWBA25P7GSRWNST5WSY/

HelloFresh results for year to Dec 2024 just been put up

Sales down 19% to $118m and a small profit of $374k (down from $2.4m pcp)

Double whammy -- large sales decline and ongoing GM% declines

MFB March 25 year sales flat at $162m so much better

Interesting in Dec20/Mar21 years HF and MFB sales were about the same. HelloFresh did a lot better through the next 2 years. Since then HF sales are down 44% while MFB have remained flat. MFB killing them and taking all that share

Long may it continue

A while ago at ASM they said sales up 3.8% over the first 4 months of trading
but Gross Margin for FY26 H1 to close below prior year as our price increases have lagged food price

Looks like a flat result at best but at least they should be generating a decent cash flow ...maybe an increased dividend

Hello Fresh look to be in real trouble.  If they fold up their tent and leave N.Z. that will result in massive gains for MFB.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/retail/hellofresh-profit-plunges-84-as-revenue-drops-amid-customer-fallout/premium/KCEC4FYJJFFJDAN3BF5TPLFGIY/

Solid result. Very impressed with their resilience in a very deep and protracted recession.

Quote from: Basil on Nov 20, 2025, 09:38 AMSolid result. Very impressed with their resilience in a very deep and protracted recession.

I was underwhelmed. Revenue growth not  exceeding rate of inflation, gross margin down, ebitda down. NPAT down.

Sure its a tough gig out there at the moment. And I've learnt that using the expression 'well-positioned" is a red flag.

Quote from: Minimoke on Nov 20, 2025, 09:43 AMI was underwhelmed. Revenue growth not  exceeding rate of inflation, gross margin down, ebitda down. NPAT down.

Sure its a tough gig out there at the moment. And I've learnt that using the expression 'well-positioned" is a red flag.

I agree.

Net debt is down from 9.7m to 5.5, as well as lower interest rates should result in lower overall interest expense

What actual efficiency gains are there from the picking equipment installed last FY. Hard to tell

Hm. Ok result is how I see it.  EBIT down 17 percent. When you take out the $297k tax refund and $300k interest saved in this half, it's not going ahead.

Costs have increased and have not been passed on. HF not doing well.

there are now 13,274,338 Performance Rights on issue
These will affect eps growth when converted..

They've withstood extremely difficult economic conditions very well. I think consumers will have more money to spend with them in the years ahead. Happy to hold a modest position for dividend income.

Mr Market likes the result, up 6 percent so far

Increasing revenue is the "easy" part. Getting margins up and making profits not so much. Just ask the Warehouse. MFB is, was and always will be a risky proposition. Classic dividend trap imo.

Quote from: Habitz on Nov 20, 2025, 03:03 PMMr Market likes the result, up 6 percent so far

There was a buyer seeking over 500k at 26.5. The order is filled and they've disappeared leaving lower priced buyers in charge. Interesting trading tactics

Mr market has spoken. Better times ahead. Debt coming down with genuine pace. I expect dividend growth from next year onwards.

Dividend growth won't happen unless EPS and NP goes up. There's been chat on the other channel about how subscriber numbers and revenue is inflated through people taking up "introductory" offers (50% off) then cancelling and setting up another account. That may partly account for margin decline.
Then there's the little matter of 13m performance rights to be converted at some point - another drag on EPS.
Too much risk and not enough reward with this one.

Interesting that Rawz who spent considerable time ramping MFB's prospects on the other channel hasn't yet commented on these latest results.

(Disc - don't hold.)

See post #406. Dividend increase very much on the cards when they have repaid all their debt. End of FY27 they should be debt free or very close.
I remain with the view they have coped with the deepest recession in decades very well.
Disc: Small position, just on 2% of my portfolio.

Does anyone know what the $3.5m of deferred revenue relates to? It has appeared in the interim result without any explanation.  I looked back at the previous interim report and there was nothing to be seen there. 

Seems like a big number in the context of the operating cash flow.

I'm not following Winner.   The interim report has deferred revenue of 3.5m v 10k at 30 June.   Huge difference. 

Showing deferred revenue liability is correct if the product hasn't been delivered. The co had 85m sales over six months, 3.5m equates to one week of income which sounds about right to me.

But why is there $3.5m at Sept and virtually zero at June?

Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 11, 2025, 05:50 AMBut why is there $3.5m at Sept and virtually zero at June?

Is that something they will answer if you email the co, I'd be interested to hear their response. Most likely reason it's a timing thing, where balance date fell at the end of a cycle

Quote from: Habitz on Dec 11, 2025, 07:04 AMIs that something they will answer if you email the co, I'd be interested to hear their response. Most likely reason it's a timing thing, where balance date fell at the end of a cycle

They invite queries to

For investor relations queries:
Louise Newsome
ir@myfoodbag.co.nz

Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 11, 2025, 05:50 AMBut why is there $3.5m at Sept and virtually zero at June?

You worried it may have 'inflated' H1 cash flows and have a negative impact on H2 cash flows or something?

Probably some simple explanation so just ask them

there is a simple explanation.  see the annual report note 1

"Payment for the goods is typically received up to a week in advance of delivery. The payment received in advance of delivery is recognised in the Statement of Financial Position as a liability (deferred revenue) until the goods are delivered to the customer." 

MFB ships goods I think once a week - around the weekend (ours get delivered on a Sunday).  AFter that day, they're recognise the week's sales as revenue as they've been sent to the customer.  but in the week leading up to that point, they will not yet have prepared the kits and despatched them yet, so they can't claim they revenue yet.  all those orders which have been received but not fulfilled yet will be treated as deferred revenue. 

so if the financial period end falls close to and just before the day of despatch, deferred revenue will be high in that period.  MFB has lots of orders from customers, but it hasn't finished processing the orders so all the money is shown as deferred revenue.   but if the financial period end falls just after the weekend, deferred revenue will be lower because not many customers have ordered but not received their meal kits.

Managed to reinvest the Divvy this week .
Hopefully a good 2026 ahead .
I'm looking for circa  40 cents before selling any .

Food prices have been declining for the last few months so that should help their margin. https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/136543/statistics-nzs-selected-price-indexes-show-food-prices-dropped-04-november-lowering

Quote from: Basil on Dec 18, 2025, 06:08 PMFood prices have been declining for the last few months so that should help their margin. https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/136543/statistics-nzs-selected-price-indexes-show-food-prices-dropped-04-november-lowering

More like going up more slowly

A better measure more relevant to MFB is what input prices are doing ....like this Grocery Supplier Cost Index

Mind you based on the Global Food Price Index there might be some relief from mid of next year


https://static.infometrics.co.nz/Content/Grocery-Supplier-Cost-Index/Grocery-Supplier-Cost-Index-Note-2025-11.pdf

Quote from: Basil on Dec 18, 2025, 06:08 PMFood prices have been declining for the last few months so that should help their margin. https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/136543/statistics-nzs-selected-price-indexes-show-food-prices-dropped-04-november-lowering

They are prices consumers are paying. I understand meal kits are included in the index

So you are essentially saying in the context of MFB  'selling prices have been declining last for the last few months so that maybe NOT good for their margins'

My MFB 'price watch' has no price rises (list price) since July ...but promotional has been getting keener and keener ....and more of it.

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 19, 2025, 07:33 AMThey are prices consumers are paying. I understand meal kits are included in the index

So you are essentially saying in the context of MFB  'selling prices have been declining last for the last few months so that maybe NOT good for their margins'

My MFB 'price watch' has no price rises (list price) since July ...but promotional has been getting keener and keener ....and more of it.

Maybe they've increased the promotional spend to really take it to H/F, be a great day when they pull stumps ....

Thanks Winner you make some good counter points to my thesis which is appreciated.
Firstly, this is a nursery, (baby) sized position for me and will either grow / or be added too significantly to become something meaningful or be sold in due course.

The metrics were more compelling where I bought 400K just under 20 cents but even at 24 cents the PE of 9.2 and gross yield of 9.25% makes it a sound hold to see what happens.

The thesis behind my purchase was that they appear to have built a base in their operations that appears to be sustainable given we have traversed what is inarguably a severe stress test with consumer confidence and cost of living pressures at unprecedented lows for a considerable period of time and that future dividends would be used to put food on my table, (literally) with using them for a subscription. The metrics are very sound and you're paying nothing whatsoever for the possibility of future growth in income and therein lies the attraction of MFB.

Leaving aside how they price their subscriptions and letting them do the weekly grind at an operational level, (they are doing more deals direct with farmer suppliers so your useful wholesale price index info might not be as problematic as it appears at face value), what I see is a company that's shown decent resiliency across the bottom of the economic cycle.  Latest half year result was okay in the circumstances.

What was very clear in discussions both during the last annual meeting and afterwards, is the Directors are determined to build more resiliency into their business model by eliminating debt and they're making very good progress.

Based on my analysis this morning they have reduced debt by an average of $1.96m over the last 5 half yearly reports, call it $4m per annum to be down to only $5.5m as at 30 September 2025.  Clearly they are on track to be debt free by 31 March 2027 which is only ~ 15 months away.

What are they going to do with that $4m per annum in cash after that ?  Note, the current level of dividends giving a 9.25% gross yield consumes almost exactly $4m per annum so there is the potential for the current annual dividend to double in FY28 to 3.2 cps.  That 9.25% gross yield could double to 18.5%.  I'm not saying it will, but it appears it could and that's based on financial performance across the bottom of the economic cycle.  What if the economy recovers a bit and consumers spend a bit more ?  There's also earnings growth just through eliminating that debt.

I think this is an interesting income stock with genuine potential for increasing income from FY28.  Its never going to be a rock star company but in terms of its ability to put food on your table in more ways than one including by way of dividends, I think its interesting and has genuine potential.  Even the current yield is quite appealing so shareholders are being paid very well while they wait and see what happens.

Happy to have a "nursery" sized stake and might add to it in due course.

The biggest impact on margins last few years has been Assembly and Distribution costs

Average order has remained pretty consistent around $130 but Assembly and Distribution cost per order has increased from about $26 to $35

They wre excited with their new automation stuff around picking orders so maybe we have to assume that the increases have been in delivery costs

Infometrics report Foodstuffs input costs are up 2.4% from Dec24 ... but didn't move since November

My MFB price watch suggests MFB haven't increased prices for a while ... maybe putting a little less in the bags

Global Food Index down again in December. That implies cost relief foe MFB later this year

Wish share price would break through 25

F&B still going strong....

"Black Friday spending down blow to retail recovery
Worldline NZ figures showed retail spending in New Zealand during December reached $4.702 billion, down 0.2% on the same month last year.
However, food and drink spending rose 4.4% in December.
Proffit said the figures showed a tough retailing environment over the last and busy month of the year but revealed some notable shifts in shopping behaviour.
"There was more spending at food and liquor stores in Worldline's network across December, which is consistent with generally higher food prices and people prioritising the essentials in their budgets."

From NZH

Small top up for me at the close at $0.24.  Still a very small position for me.

Your confidence must be growing that 2026 could be a very positive year for the company.

2025 overall was mediocre unless picked the dip. There is now 100 percent gains plus dividends since 2 years lows reached in December 2023. Could be an outside chance of 100 percent gain in 2026.

I've been reading that about half of all fixed term mortgages have come up for renewal in recent months or coming up for renewal shortly.  2% savings are common and on an average circa $400K mortgage that's $8,000 a year or about $154 per week.  Together with an improving economy I think that's a decent tailwind for the company over the next few years.  They're determined to build more resiliency into their business model by eliminating all debt.  I like that and the fact they've shown decent level's of resiliency already despite the hideously long recession in recent years.

Yes its frightening how long this downturn lasted ,but the fact you have stated that during this recession they have cut debt and still been paying a large dividend is auspicious in the least .

Its not all peaches and cream though.  I share Lorriana's concerns about the number of free performance rights being issued to senior management.  I guess that keeps them motivated but they shouldn't need motivation as they're already well paid for a small company like this.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2026, 10:39 AMI've been reading that about half of all fixed term mortgages have come up for renewal in recent months or coming up for renewal shortly.  2% savings are common and on an average circa $400K mortgage that's $8,000 a year or about $154 per week.  Together with an improving economy I think that's a decent tailwind for the company over the next few years.  They're determined to build more resiliency into their business model by eliminating all debt.  I like that and the fact they've shown decent level's of resiliency already despite the hideously long recession in recent years.

There is some thinking/research around when homeowners feel better off (like you have indicated) soem of the extra discretionary spend goes on eating and drinking out as well as having meals delivered (from restaurants/takeaways)

The research bit is that when restaurant/takeawys sales grow (solidly) MFB et all sales tend to decline  or remain flat at best

Why cook at home when you can go out and have others cook for you

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2026, 11:50 AMIts not all peaches and cream though.  I share Lorriana's concerns about the number of free performance rights being issued to senior management.  I guess that keeps them motivated but they shouldn't need motivation as they're already well paid for a small company like this.

Shareholder have to learn to share ,but yes probably to many incentives sometimes, not always .
 Do they have to reach quotas to achieve these performance rights

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 14, 2026, 01:12 PMWhy cook at home when you can go out and have others cook for you

You're quite right, Kiwi's love their takeaway's.  That'll grow too from more disposable income and you're right, some people will substitute takeaways for home cooking.  Others will buy more time by having some of their weekly supermarket shop delivered to them from MFB.  Be interesting to see how this plays out but there's no doubt in my mind they are on track to be debt free sometime around the fourth quarter of next year.  Meaningful interest savings as well as more flexibility to increase dividends.

Quote from: Auto Rower on Jan 14, 2026, 01:27 PMShareholder have to learn to share ,but yes probably to many incentives sometimes, not always .
 Do they have to reach quotas to achieve these performance rights

They're issued for free but (from memory), there are some KPI targets that have to be met but the company is very coy on explaining what those targets are.  I'd like to see a decent share price hurdle having to be met such as here are your performance rights and they can be exercised by payment of say 40 CPS in three years time.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2026, 11:50 AMIts not all peaches and cream though.  I share Lorriana's concerns about the number of free performance rights being issued to senior management.  I guess that keeps them motivated but they shouldn't need motivation as they're already well paid for a small company like this.

51 paid over $100,000 in AR2025

How many employees in total?

About 200 I'm led to believe

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 14, 2026, 01:42 PM%1 paid over $100,000 in AR2025

How many employees in total?

About 200 I'm led to believe

No offence winner could you put that in layman's terms for me please ,are you saying two people i.e. 1% of 200 employees
 I used to be very delusory of k p i Incentives but came around to them in the end & its good business practice to keep the details secretive for many reasons .

Quote from: Auto Rower on Jan 14, 2026, 02:01 PMNo offence winner could you put that in layman's terms for me please ,are you saying two people i.e. 1% of 200 employees
 I used to be very delusory of k p i Incentives but came around to them in the end & its good business practice to keep the details secretive for many reasons .

Sorry my bad ...it's 51 employees over $100,000

As I would expect thankyou winner

$200,000 is the new $100,000.  $100K disclosure is a bit silly now.  Even junior managers are earning that.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 14, 2026, 03:37 PM$200,000 is the new $100,000.  $100K disclosure is a bit silly now.  Even junior managers are earning that.

As a matter of interest average rem was about $87,5000 per employee

Gender pay gap was 3.4% (based on median hourly rates)

108 female and 98 employees at March 25 .....does not appear to be any non-binary

Westpac Retail Spending Pulse for December says spending on the rise

This bit of note - The lift in spending has been spread across retail categories, with notable gains in discretionary spending areas like dining out.That's consistent with the lift in consumer confidence in recent months.

https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/nz/2026/01/Economic-Data_150126-Retail-spending-pulse_bulletin_15Jan26.pdf

Always important to think ahead. FY 26 almost done and dusted. They'll be debt free and we'll positioned  by the end of next financial year. Added some nore this morning.

Has this been Instigated by your dividend hound instinct's !

Quote from: Auto Rower on Jan 16, 2026, 10:30 AMHas this been Instigated by your dividend hound instinct's !

Is the Pope a Catholic lol

MFB ner top of NZX Leaderboard this morning

Basil buying did it lol

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 12, 2026, 10:18 AMWish share price would break through 25

Got your wish winner (n). Now buy a lotto ticket ;)

Saw a bit of commentary out of Australia about this K shaped economy we are currently in and its impact on food deliveries / meal kits etc.

Basically says in the context of MFB (my translation) that their 60,000 odd customers aren't suffering from any cost of living crisis and doing quite well. Only the rest ofvthe populus suffering 'hardship' and the way the world is going will continue to do so even if they get a bit of relief from lower mortgage payments

Conclusion is MFB might struggle to (significantly) increase the number of customers they have.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 21, 2026, 09:33 AMConclusion is MFB might struggle to (significantly) increase the number of customers they have.

Agree.

In addition, in our local community, many MFB customers are  buying less MFB meals, switching from (say) 5 meals per week to only 2 or 3.

The next MFB revenue update will be interesting

(Disc - don't hold, just watching.)

I disagree.  The fact is that revenue has proved very resilient during the longest and deepest recession in decades. There's no plausible reason I can think of why the company wouldn't do better in a recovering economy.

The crux of my thesis this morning was that My Food Bag customers weren't really affected 'during the longest and deepest recession in decades.'

K shaped economy ....Like probably hasn't impacted many of us on Stocktalk

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 21, 2026, 12:12 PMThe crux of my thesis this morning was that My Food Bag customers weren't really affected 'during the longest and deepest recession in decades.'

K shaped economy ....Like probably hasn't impacted many of us on Stocktalk



Speak for yourself it certainly had a effect on my dividend Income ,elsewhere I might add




[

MFB share price a bit weak lately ..up today but still a long way off recent high of 28 cents

Longer Iran goes on input costs will increase and distribution could go up even more. Distribution stuffed margins once before. Will their customers accept a price rise?

MFB promo activity seems to be going flat out ...I get special offers almost every day lol. I just saw a Hello Fresh ad on TV ..maybe both a struggling to grow sales?

Retail data shows restaurants doing well at moment ......data would say a negative factor for MFB

Might send an email to Tony saying an update is needed

But I'm told they a cash machine spitting out cash so no real worries

SP is up today... nice. If we only mention the UP days and not any others we will be able to convince the punters that MFB is on a roll, the FOMO will increase

I'm doing a possum in the headlights and will see what happens.  They've proven very resilient during the long recession of the last few years. Can't see why it would be any different now that interest rates are lower.  Higher distribution costs relative to what ?  Diesel was $2.70 a liter in Spring 2022. In real inflation adjusted terms its a lot cheaper now even with the present ructions in the middle east which will hopefully only be a short term thing.  MFB might be a buying opportunity for someone not already well positioned ?

Quote from: Basil on Mar 10, 2026, 06:42 PMI'm doing a possum in the headlights and will see what happens.  They've proven very resilient during the long recession of the last few years. Can't see why it would be any different now that interest rates are lower.  Higher distribution costs relative to what ?  Diesel was $2.70 a liter in Spring 2022. In real inflation adjusted terms its a lot cheaper now even with the present ructions in the middle east which will hopefully only be a short term thing.  MFB might be a buying opportunity for someone not already well positioned ?

Yes agree they have become very resilient. My concern is you can only cut costs so far. They seem to be aggressively marketing at the moment, at what cost. Margin was down last period as was profit.

We have not purchased a box for some time.  Basil made use of Gulls discount day last week to fill up the tank to the brim of Diesel. $1.599 seems a bargain now.

Hey Shareguy

Nice picture in your profile ...very cool, like it

I take it you do a bit of fishing

Hey Shareguy. Smart move on the tank load of diesel.

I think MFB are always engaged in a lot of promotional activity to former customers.

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 11, 2026, 08:24 AMHey Shareguy

Nice picture in your profile ...very cool, like it

I take it you do a bit of fishing

Thanks Winner, yes I do like Fishing, especially game fishing.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 11, 2026, 08:48 AMHey Shareguy. Smart move on the tank load of diesel.

I think MFB are always engaged in a lot of promotional activity to former customers.

Thanks have also pre purchased plenty on Z sharetank locking in the price.

Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 10, 2026, 09:02 PMYes agree they have become very resilient. My concern is you can only cut costs so far. They seem to be aggressively marketing at the moment, at what cost. Margin was down last period as was profit.

We have not purchased a box for some time.  Basil made use of Gulls discount day last week to fill up the tank to the brim of Diesel. $1.599 seems a bargain now.

Hmmmmmmmmm?
I guess the cost per fish caught is now over $100....lol

Quote from: lorraina on Mar 11, 2026, 12:11 PMHmmmmmmmmm?
I guess the cost per fish caught is now over $100....lol

Lorraina, My wife says more like $500 a 🐟😂

Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 11, 2026, 12:51 PMLorraina, My wife says more like $500 a 🐟😂

Ha ha...lol.

Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 11, 2026, 12:51 PMLorraina, My wife says more like $500 a 🐟😂

Much cheaper through MFB but not as much fun :)

Interesting that MFB has dropped all the way to 20c.  I might have to have another look, the problem is the depth is so low it'll be hard to build a decent position.

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 10, 2026, 06:14 PMMFB share price a bit weak lately ..up today but still a long way off recent high of 28 cents

Longer Iran goes on input costs will increase and distribution could go up even more. Distribution stuffed margins once before. Will their customers accept a price rise?

MFB promo activity seems to be going flat out ...I get special offers almost every day lol. I just saw a Hello Fresh ad on TV ..maybe both a struggling to grow sales?

Retail data shows restaurants doing well at moment ......data would say a negative factor for MFB

Might send an email to Tony saying an update is needed

But I'm told they a cash machine spitting out cash so no real worries

Shot off an email to Tony saying we want an update.

At least Tony with all his experience at Air NZ, Fletchers and Warehouse should be able to guide MFB through more hard times if that eventuates ....sorry Tony that's a bit cruel.

My Food Bag dont seem to have had a price rise since last July

Maybe putting less stuff in the bag to maintain margins

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 12, 2026, 08:20 AMShot off an email to Tony saying we want an update.

At least Tony with all his experience at Air NZ, Fletchers and Warehouse should be able to guide MFB through more hard times if that eventuates ....sorry Tony that's a bit cruel.

Ouch lol. To be fair, he hadn't been at WHS for long.
Tony is a likeable guy though in my opinion.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 15, 2026, 11:41 AMOuch lol. To be fair, he hadn't been at WHS for long.
Tony is a likeable guy though in my opinion.

Agree Tony is a likeable guy but he doesn't seem to be one favoured with good fortune looking at his recent directorships

I note on the Datamine directors rankings he is 41st out of 70 odd ... went up a couple of places as he joined Sanford .... hope he hasn't bought ill fortune to them

Hasn't responed to my email yet

Asked AI if Tony was a lucky director -

Tony Carter is recognized as a lucky director due to his extensive governance experience and successful career in various sectors. He has been appointed to boards like Sanford Limited and My Food Bag, contributing significantly to their success and governance. His ability to navigate complex business challenges and drive performance improvements reflects his strategic acumen, which may contribute to the company's success.

So no worries.... my apologines fo thinking otherwise

AI: shareholders who bought early experienced the opposite of luck.

But arent we supposed to get in early?

GSCI is an index that tracks what Foodstuffs are paying for stuff

February report says butchery and seafood up nearly 5% from a year ago .. and produce up about 3%

I'd hazard a guess My Food Bag are experiencing the same sort of increases

Margin in next report will be interesting

I won't take credit for them coming out with an update ..but thanks Tony

All fine ...sales up, margins OK and high profit than F25

Share price back to 25 cents place ...be in quick at open to get some more

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/464625.pdf

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 12, 2026, 08:20 AMShot off an email to Tony saying we want an update.

At least Tony with all his experience at Air NZ, Fletchers and Warehouse should be able to guide MFB through more hard times if that eventuates ....sorry Tony that's a bit cruel.

You should take the credit mate as should Tony.

Very solid trading update that exceeds my expectations.

People always need food. I'm very impressed by how resilient they have been through the recession and I expect that to continue in FY27 no matter what the geopolitical environment.

A reminder that I am forecasting they will be debt free late next financial year adding further resiliency to their business, lowering costs and potentially significantly raising dividends.

VERY happy indeed with that trading update.

Headline was 'Momentum Continues'

Wow - some momentum - yes real momentum

H1 NPAT was +0% on pcp but H2  NPAT is +15% v pcp

The +15% from sales being being up 6% so margins/costs really under control

Looking good for F27 if this momentum continues

To be a little pedantic ... the NPAT for FY25 was actually $6.35m which in my mind rounds up to $6.4m which is at the bottom end of the FY26 guidance.  The guidance says FY25 was $6.3m.

A little cute for mine.

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 17, 2026, 09:39 AMHeadline was 'Momentum Continues'

Wow - some momentum - yes real momentum

H1 NPAT was +0% on pcp but H2  NPAT is +15% v pcp

The +15% from sales being being up 6% so margins/costs really under control

Looking good for F27 if this momentum continues

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 17, 2026, 09:39 AMHeadline was 'Momentum Continues'

Wow - some momentum - yes real momentum

H1 NPAT was +0% on pcp but H2  NPAT is +15% v pcp

The +15% from sales being being up 6% so margins/costs really under control

Looking good for F27 if this momentum continues

MFB are coming off such a low base that sales being up 4.9% is hardly anything to get excited about. Same goes for talking about "growing profitability" when the guidance NP range of $6.4m-$6.8m is barely above FY25's result of $6.3m.
We are in uncertain times of increasing global costs, inflation and a potential interest rate hike. Discretionary item business's like MFB (with a shonky past) are not worth the punt imo.

Unsurprisingly as a holder I see it differently. First half was down a bit so as Winner is suggesting there really is genuine momentum in the second half.

Looking ahead its not hard to imagine that we could be headed into a fuel supply crisis where only essential service providers can access fuel

This could easily get a Covid lockdown type bounce.

We are in uncertain times of increasing global costs, inflation and a potential interest rate hike. Discretionary item business's like MFB (with a shonky past) are not worth the punt imo.

what is a shonky past supposed to be, we are all company's included in uncertain times .
Nothing shonky about the dividends or becoming debt free unless you bought in at the I P O price

I have them on a PE of 8.2. I think in FY28 when they are debt free they can pay 2.5 cps fully imputed. If so that's 15.4% gross yield at 22.5 xps.

I suppose when they say '......it is still too early to assess how the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East will impact My Food Bag. We remain closely connected with our suppliers ...' is code for yes input costs aree going to go up quite a lot but we have no idea how much ..... and hopefully plans in place to mitigate.

I note list selling prices still haven't moved

If I recall correctly they're buying direct from farmer suppliers more these days. Early days for farm input prices to be reflected in asking prices for farm outputs.

Distrbution costs will be rising. Everyone is going to have to get used to paying a bit more. Nicola Willis been handling herself well apart from her guess on worst case inflation rate estimate of 3.7%. That's looking like a best case scenario to me.

Despite what Nicola and Chris (and Mike Hosking) tell us the economy isn't going to get better over the next year (or so). NZ be lucky to avoid another recession

Insofar as Demand for MFB stuff goes it'll depend on how far up the K curve the bad times go. The well off won't be affected but a lot of those that are reasonably comfortable now will drift into the have nots - impacting MFB

Intersting times coming up ...not just for MFB but a lot of other companies

A lot depends on how long the war goes on. How long is a piece of string...

On an unrelated topic, they say never waste a crisis. Nicola communicating a heck of a lot better than Chris. Very prime minesteral in her delivery  Sign of a pending change at the top for Narional ? I'd wager it happens sometime in the next 6 months.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 22, 2026, 01:59 PMA lot depends on how long the war goes on. How long is a piece of string...

How long is a piece of string?

Don't think that needs answering

The damage has been done

I'd say that your 'longest and deepest recession since the GFC' has just got longer and deeper ..
Maybe bad times out to 2028

Bit early to make a call like that mate

Anyway...back to MFB, I bought a few more on Friday.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 22, 2026, 09:46 PMBit early to make a call like that mate

Not really too early

We've sort of faced up to the known knowns but seem to be confident that there are unknown unknowns

The damage has already been done - wonder what's to come

Market dislikes uncertainty but maybe in general regarding geopolitical matters we're now somewhere near peak uncertainty ?

This is a food company that's just announced a 15% improvement in second half performance.  People always need food no matter what's going on overseas or in the local economy. 

Maybe in tougher times people eat out at restaurants less and order MFB packages ?
Maybe if there's no fuel other than for critical service providers like food delivery companies and harder times and you can't drive to the supermarket people order Bargain Box from MFB instead ?  MFB got a huge boost from Covid lockdown's eh.  Some similar type of travelling restriction through lack of fuel could have a similar effect.  Maybe things settle down overseas relatively quickly, (I really hope so but am not especially hopeful), and we're simply left with a company trading on a PE of about 8 that's capable of paying more than 15% gross yield in FY28 and beyond ?

The future is uncertain but I think all that's already baked into the very low share price and this trades on attractive metrics..

Quote from: Basil on Mar 22, 2026, 01:59 PMA lot depends on how long the war goes on. How long is a piece of string...

On an unrelated topic, they say never waste a crisis. Nicola communicating a heck of a lot better than Chris. Very prime minesteral in her delivery  Sign of a pending change at the top for Narional ? I'd wager it happens sometime in the next 6 months.

Agree with your view of Nicolas communications. However not sure about the proposed timeframe. Any change close to the election will make it worse for National. Even directly now would be a significant risk ... and nobody ready to do it now.

Craig's mentioned courier costs up 8% over last month ...another article I saw said 11%

Impact on MFB?

No sign of MFB increasing prices yet.

Tony Alexander household spend intentions survey just out shows a net -37% (could be about 70% less and 30% more) in are going to spend more on eating out next 3 to 6 months ....a number as bas as in early 2024.

Not good news for hospo ...maybe a lot more will take up My Food Bag specials ...

I got a few more today. MFB by my calculations will be debt free later this financial year and then it's game on for big fat juicy dividends.

Goodness gracious me ...My Food Bag get a write up on Business in an article about fuel costs and Air NZ. Main point was about market disclosures or lack of them.

Other companies, such as MyFoodBag, are in the same boat, yet have not updated the market since the crisis began six weeks ago.

Extract -

Higher fuel prices will already be squeezing My Food Bag's margins by lifting delivery and logistics costs in a business with limited pricing power.

Any diesel shortage would likely pose an even worse operational risk.

They might have apply a temporary fuel surcharge for the extra freight costs. I am sure customers would understand.

Email Tony and let him know a surcharge is okay.

Will probably limit their delivery radius. We can get MFB deliveries but not KFC... damn damn damn!

Quote from: Habitz on Apr 10, 2026, 10:14 AMbut not KFC... damn damn damn!

What does your doctor say about bad Habitz lol

Quote from: Basil on Apr 10, 2026, 10:56 AMWhat does your doctor say about bad Habitz lol

Everything in moderation... but don't actually go to the doctor, no need yet

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 10, 2026, 08:03 AMGoodness gracious me ...My Food Bag get a write up on Business in an article about fuel costs and Air NZ. Main point was about market disclosures or lack of them.

Other companies, such as MyFoodBag, are in the same boat, yet have not updated the market since the crisis began six weeks ago.

Extract -

Higher fuel prices will already be squeezing My Food Bag's margins by lifting delivery and logistics costs in a business with limited pricing power.

Any diesel shortage would likely pose an even worse operational risk.

I'd imagine that MFB would have contractual arrangements for delivery logistics and cost - the fuel price increases won't impact until those contracts expire or come up for renegotiation. Hopefully things calmed down by then.

MFB, another company with tame auditors.

The journalism 'profession' never seriously investigated what happened here when over $400 million was lost in the IPO.

A kiwi disgrace (among many) benefitting the Dick Turpins of new zealand business.

Quote from: Habitz on Apr 10, 2026, 11:05 AMEverything in moderation... but don't actually go to the doctor, no need yet

The "joys" of getting older await you.  Visits to the doctor to hear things you don't really want to hear and get more meds are such fun lol

Quote from: Poet on Apr 10, 2026, 11:08 AMI'd imagine that MFB would have contractual arrangements for delivery logistics and cost - the fuel price increases won't impact until those contracts expire or come up for renegotiation. Hopefully things calmed down by then.

force majeure maybe in play

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 10, 2026, 12:03 PMforce majeure maybe in play

Unlikely IMO
From ai

Force Majeure

Requirements: To rely on this clause, the event must generally be unforeseeable, external, and make performance impossible (not just more expensive or difficult)

Quote from: Poet on Apr 10, 2026, 11:08 AMI'd imagine that MFB would have contractual arrangements for delivery logistics and cost - the fuel price increases won't impact until those contracts expire or come up for renegotiation. Hopefully things calmed down by then.

Absolutely
All their delivery's are done by the usual national couriers , as opposed to paying for fuel on a daily basis like contractors and logistic companies etc ,any future  price hikes will be future Inflation across the board  for everyone 

Over the last few years Assembly and Distribution costs have increased from 21% of sales to 27% of sales ....and during this time they have implemented the much heralded automation in assembling orders

Average A&D per order over last year has been about $35 - how much courier unknown

But I'd say another $1 or $2 per order on freight would have an impact - like on 125,000 deiveries a $2 increase would be $0.25m - a reasonable chunk of their profit

Still no signs of MFB increasing prices

I have no reason to believe MFB will be any different than EBO.
MFB will be paying a lot more for freight.
 
 
2/ Craig's has assessed EBOS exposure to higher fuel costs. EBO spent $172m on freight in FY25 with third parties (e.g. Freightways and DHL), mainly to transport medicines from its distribution centres to pharmacies and hospitals across Australia and NZ. Around 20-30% of the cost of freight is fuel, and EBOS does not appear to hedge its exposure. With the price of oil up c.50% over the past month, major freight companies have swiftly moved to pass through higher fuel prices to customers via increased fuel surcharges. Ridgewell estimates EBO's monthly freight costs have increased - or will very shortly increase - c.12-15%, or $2.0-2.5m per month (to $16-16.5m per month). While the impact on EBO's EBITDA so far is not material relative to FY26 guidance of $615-635m, if fuel prices remain at current elevated levels for the rest of FY26 (i.e. until June 30), and EBOS is not able to mitigate, this equates to a $8-10m impact on EBITDA (1.3-1.6% downgrade vs FY26 guidance) and $6-7m impact on NPAT (c.2-3% downgrade vs FY26 consensus).
Accordingly, Ridgewell has downgraded his FY26F EBITDA.

Okay so it might take them a bit longer to get to 30 cents Winner that you reckoned a while ago.

You don't think the 3.5 cps it's already dropped since pre-war price of 25 cps is enough to cover the risks ? If not, sell me your shares at 21.5 cps mate. I'll warehouse them for a while and sell them back to you later this year for the bargain price of 27 cps.

You may have bought my shares when i sold last July.
The issue of more performance rights saw me sell on the 7th July.

"there are now 13,274,338 Performance Rights on issue"

Quote from: lorraina on Apr 10, 2026, 02:51 PMYou may have bought my shares when i sold last July.
The issue of more performance rights saw me sell on the 7th July.

"there are now 13,274,338 Performance Rights on issue"

Some might say a gravy train lol

What is the exercise price of the performance rights?

Quote from: Dolcile on Apr 10, 2026, 04:27 PMWhat is the exercise price of the performance rights?

I think they get them zero consideration ...free.think I'm corr3ct but others might know better

That depends on them reaching performance hurdles ...shareholders expect they will eh

One notice mentioned 3.77% of company if exercised ..not too bad for one years good work

No wonder lorriana didn't agree with the generous offer and sold out

Term is 3 years from memory.  The boards argument is its part of senior executives remuneration packages and encourages top performance. I'm not pleased with the terms but for me it's not a deal breaker.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 10, 2026, 02:40 PMOkay so it might take them a bit longer to get to 30 cents Winner that you reckoned a while ago.

You don't think the 3.5 cps it's already dropped since pre-war price of 25 cps is enough to cover the risks ? If not, sell me your shares at 21.5 cps mate. I'll warehouse them for a while and sell them back to you later this year for the bargain price of 27 cps.

I should think it would mean that winners price target prediction would be reached quicker due to the effects of Inflation that as said above (ebos )has the same effect with most company shares & therefore everything gets more expensive especially companies that are profitable & paying divis with a undervalued sp.
 

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 10, 2026, 02:33 PMOver the last few years Assembly and Distribution costs have increased from 21% of sales to 27% of sales ....and during this time they have implemented the much heralded automation in assembling orders

Average A&D per order over last year has been about $35 - how much courier unknown

But I'd say another $1 or $2 per order on freight would have an impact - like on 125,000 deiveries a $2 increase would be $0.25m - a reasonable chunk of their profit

Still no signs of MFB increasing prices

I think your estimate of 2 $ per delivery is ridiculous, as per lol

Quote from: Auto Rower on Apr 11, 2026, 12:04 PMI think your estimate of 2 $ per delivery is ridiculous, as per lol

With Diesel headed to $4.00 per litre and no sign of electrification of their fleet, the $2.00 a delivery may be conservative especially when you add in labour and other costs.

Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 10, 2026, 06:23 PMNo wonder lorriana didn't agree with the generous offer and sold out

I've never held.

IMO MFB is a nice idea but not a world changing one, indeed the trend to more people working from home is likely to mean more time to make their own meals. Add in entrenched competition/supermarkets and NZ's small market size.

Good luck holders.... hopefully the divvy will help retain your interest for awhile longer.

Quote from: Auto Rower on Apr 11, 2026, 12:04 PMI think your estimate of 2 $ per delivery is ridiculous, as per lol

It was $2 on top of what they currently pay

We will no doubt hear from them soon eh ...don't be surprised if narrative has changed

They might even have to sack the AI agent and get a new one to do the story telling

I think some people are missing some key points. An average courier delivery will involve many dozens of boxes within the same suburb which means the unit price per box is very small and logically has to be more efficient than those dozens of customers  each individually driving to the supermarket themselves.

The company may have an existing contract which runs for quite some time. Even if we are stuck with high fuel prices for quite some time people driving to the supermarket themselves are going to face those same high fuel prices and all customers will have to become accustomed to higher costs for freight and delivery or picking up the goods themselves.

For example we live within five kilometers of the supermarket and if my wife goes there with her diesel vehicle today it will cost her more than $2 extra for fuel compared to what she was paying seven or eight weeks ago.

The company has a good track record of managing other input costs when they have risen so an increased freight delivery cost is just another input cost to be managed in the same way.

The shares have come back a long way that in my opinion fully compensates on a risk reward basis for people applying fresh capital at these levels.

Zooming out and looking at the big picture, the company could be and should be debt-free by the end of FY27 and in a position to pay nearly three cents per share in dividends in FY28. Fully imputed that gives a gross yield of approx 18%.

Never waste a good crisis...that's how I see it.
Disc: I have been buying at 21.5 cps and am still bidding for more at that level.

Does anyone know what TSR is required for these performance share rights to vest?  Plus the new ones of course.

QuoteLTI – FY25 awards

The CEO and members of the Senior Leadership team are eligible to participate in the Long Term Incentive (LTI) scheme. Under the scheme, participants are awarded performance share rights based on a percentage of their base salary. Each performance share right converts to one ordinary share, at no cost to the employee. The LTI is an equity-settled share-based payment scheme.

The performance share rights vest after 3 years subject to achievement of continued employment with the Group and the absolute TSR compared to hurdles set by reference to My Food Bag's Cost of Equity plus various premiums. Accelerated vesting (up to 50%) after 2 years will occur if performance conditions are met.

The board approved 6,321,585 LTI performance share awards during the period to 31 March 2025 (31 March 2024: 6,922,230).

We know FY26 will be ok ...sales up and maybe $6.9n profit...and don't forget H2 sales were up more than H1

Results late May ...key will be what story the new AI Agent comes up with how the start of F27 has gone and prospects for full year. Get you bingo card out to mark off the buzzwords.

Possibly good sign for My Food Bag .....Foodstuffs input costs not rising as much as previous. My Food Bag with their superior relationships with key suppliers could be seeing input cost decreases

From Infometrics -

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in March was slightly lower than last month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.1% increase in what suppliers charged in March 2026, compared with a year earlier.

"The increase recorded for March was a slight slowdown from the 2.3%pa result in February," said Infometrics Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen. "As anticipated, cost changes in March do not reflect higher input costs developing across the supply chain due to the Middle East conflict. Early indications are that suppliers have been absorbing some of the increases, and it is still too early to fully gauge the impact that we will see on grocery supplier costs."

A while back someone was complaining about the lack of liquidity with MFB.  Check out the bid and ask volume now at 23.5 and 24 cents.  Disc: I am very happy with the extra shares I recently accumulated at 21.5 cps and am neither a buyer or seller at 23.5 cps or 24 cps.

Quote from: Basil on Apr 23, 2026, 12:50 PMA while back someone was complaining about the lack of liquidity with MFB.  Check out the bid and ask volume now at 23.5 and 24 cents.  Disc: I am very happy with the extra shares I recently accumulated at 21.5 cps and am neither a buyer or seller at 23.5 cps or 24 cps.

Both sides seem happy to hold out for their price... announcement is coming soon in a month, for those hoping to buy its better to pay the extra and get in beforehand imho. Have added more recently from 22 to 24c, 21.5 is in the rear vision, well done mate

Lambton Quay chatter is that things going well for My Food Bag

FY26 ended up slightly better than expected and NPAT a few bucks short of $7m

But best part is April has been busier than expected and sales about 8% up on pcp

No wonder a bit of interest in the stock

24 cents got cleaned out today.  One trade of 1.3m shares + others mopped up the rest. 

Quote from: Basil on Apr 24, 2026, 05:13 PM24 cents got cleaned out today.  One trade of 1.3m shares + others mopped up the rest. 

Maybe Lambton Quay chatter has some substance

Go above 25cents next week

Quote from: Basil on Apr 24, 2026, 05:13 PM24 cents got cleaned out today.  One trade of 1.3m shares + others mopped up the rest. 

The big bid at 23.5 is still sitting there.. unsatisfied demand that could drive the share price up?? Fingers crossed.

Quote from: Habitz on Apr 24, 2026, 08:44 PMThe big bid at 23.5 is still sitting there.. unsatisfied demand that could drive the share price up?? Fingers crossed.

Possibly worth noting the ex date for the final divvy last year was 4 June, which is only just over a month away so that buyer at 24 cents is probably figuring they're only really paying a net price of ~ 23 cps for future income.  I reckon that will turn out to be an astute buy and I'll probably regret not doing it myself..  I don't think MFB is ever going to set the world on fire but the potential for it to be a great dividend hounds stock is clear to me with very high prospective gross yields in the years ahead when they are debt free and churning out millions of dollars in free cash flow.

Interesting bit from a market commentator which I steal for you to read -

Turn your mind to New Zealand Rural Land Co's recent strategic review to bridge the gap between the share price and the rural landlord's net tangible assets.

Some shareholders would've preferred the rural landlord to slide into the shadows of private life, but its board stuck to its listing, taking on feedback from various market players that building a reputation of paying reliable – and growing – dividends would go some way to convincing investors of the lower risk and longer tenure of rural land than other types of property.

And with NZ Rural Land Co's share price down 17% so far this year compared to the 6.7% decline for the S&P/NZX all real estate gross index, the fact that it's not a quick fix will be something for My Food Bag's board to consider.

I've got you in my sights

Similarly, Comvita's experience finding a buyer when the price is languishing is a warning that a deal's never done until the ink is dry.

In fact, investors shouldn't be surprised if My Food Bag's advisers and board contemplate whether a cashed-up cornerstone investor could pave the way for a push into one of those aforementioned future projects to win over a greater share of the consumer market in the same way that Comvita's partnered up with Singapore's Fraser and Neave.

MFB share price holding up well since announcement of 'strategic review'

This in spite of many reports about how households are spending less on food and going to home brands etc etc. Hospi spend not so flash as well.

Results announced soon ....hope they tell us how well they are doing in new financial year and provide an outlook for FY27 that's got some numbers in it rather than just vague statements like they usually do.

We might even get an update on the strategic review.  Not long to wait for the annual result on 21 May.    Wonder if there will even be an annual meeting this year.  Might get taken over before then.

No diners in restaurants ....probably getting MFB delivered and cooking their own decent meals.

Expect a good outlook statement next week from MFB


Extract -

"We are already facing a big dip in the number of people who are going out to eat at restaurants," he said.

"So adding more cost would discourage even those who are actually going out to eat out. Do we want half-full restaurants? Or do we want a completely empty restaurant?"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360979599/one-meal-sold-all-night-double-whammy-wellington-restaurants-fuel-crisis-drives-away-diners-and

Dare I suggest that, following the recent LCD news, an investment next week in PEB at 27cps is likely to produce a dramatically higher capital gain  before year-end than an investment in MFB at a similar SP. Not investment advice, of course.

It's pretty ccool both MFB and PEB closed on 27 cents yesterday. Cue the starters gun

The Thai restaurant in Thames was 80 percent full after 8 last night when we arrived. Decent meal for not much money. Beats cooking imo

Comparing apples and oranges is not especially useful in my opinion.  I prefer apples and rarely eat oranges...the acidic content of which is something I'm not especially fond of, a bit like the acidic way PEB have burned away endless capital from so many capital raises I have lost count.  At least with MFB they have only smashed the capital into smithereens once, after they listed, whereas PEB, I really have lost count.

MFB is in play, whereas PEB is not.
MFB is capable of paying as much as 15% gross dividend in FY28 if a takeover is not forthcoming whereas its anyone's guess when of if PEB might ever pay a dividend.  MFB is much more of heads you win, tails no takeover and with huge dividends in the years ahead you win even bigger.

PEB you are living in hope just like previous shareholders over the decades have lived in hope before you.

One company meets the definition of investment, the other is clearly highly speculative.  Like I said mate, its a case of apples and oranges.  The acid in Oranges eats away at the enamel on your teeth...so should be eaten in moderation. i.e. be careful.

Just teasing Basil, though I did say capital gain, not dividend. I expect it will be quite a long time before PEB even considers a dividend.

PEB has been my spec play for many years and looking forward, not back, 2026 just might be the year it delivers the goods.

Meantime HLG, TRA and TWR among others are steaming along and comfortably funding my travel and retired lifestyle.

Both have fallen far and struggle to get off the floor, I think both companies share a level of expectation and possibility for the unknown

Since recent lows PEB has risen faster/further than MFB but now sitting equal, where might these go in just the next six month. PEB is still a 50/50 heads or tails call, an appetizer but not a helping for income investors

Quote from: Pierre on May 16, 2026, 12:00 PMJust teasing Basil, though I did say capital gain, not dividend. I expect it will be quite a long time before PEB even considers a dividend.

PEB has been my spec play for many years and looking forward, not back, 2026 just might be the year it delivers the goods.

Meantime HLG, TRA and TWR among others are steaming along and comfortably funding my travel and retired lifestyle.

All good mate.  I have a small speculative position in Silver which has quadrupled over the years and nearly kept up with HLG lol but like your PEB, it doesn't pay any dividends.  I think speculative positions need to be kept to a sensible size but you strike me as a smart chap so I'd wager you've worked that out already  :)

Quote from: Basil on May 16, 2026, 01:05 PMAll good mate.  I have a small speculative position in Silver which has quadrupled over the years and nearly kept up with HLG lol but like your PEB, it doesn't pay any dividends.  I think speculative positions need to be kept to a sensible size but you strike me as a smart chap so I'd wager you've worked that out already  :)

Thanks for the compliment Basil but I have to confess PEB is probably a slightly larger percentage of my portfolio than is wise (but so is HLG-by a far greater margin). :) It's far from a life-threatening total though and the airlines don't need to fret about me not buying business class airfares if it doesnt succeed.

Im buoyed by the knowledge that some investors have recently committed hugely more significant sums than me in PEB (e.g. $5m by Anatole Masfen). The past week's LCD announcement is also by far the strongest hint of a successful outcome for the company.

I'll be watching the MFB action carefully over the coming months too and we'll see at year-end who will be buying the drinks at next year's gathering at the Viaduct.
Cheers!

MFB will never be worth $1b+ with the potential to be worth 2-3x that. Obviously different risk profiles but I'm surprised how many can't see where PEB is not at relative to its past.

Quote from: Basil on May 16, 2026, 11:46 AMMFB is in play, whereas PEB is not.
MFB is capable of paying as much as 15% gross dividend in FY28 if a takeover is not forthcoming whereas its anyone's guess when of if PEB might ever pay a dividend.  MFB is much more of heads you win, tails no takeover and with huge dividends in the years ahead you win even bigger.

PEB you are living in hope just like previous shareholders over the decades have lived in hope before you.

What a laugh indeed.

Compare the addressable market for PEB cf MFB.
Compare the protective 'moat' and research that endorses PEB cf MFB.

The market is forward looking.

Quote from: Arbroath on May 16, 2026, 07:04 PMMFB will never be worth $1b+ with the potential to be worth 2-3x that. Obviously different risk profiles but I'm surprised how many can't see where PEB is not at relative to its past.

Well said.

I agree with the sentiment that it is the wrong time to sell My Food Bag.  They are rapidly paying off debt and will be easily able to pay a much higher dividend in two years (although hopefully it will start this year). 

Also, My Food Bag have impressively improved profits in the last two years in a difficult economy.  I'm confident the economy will improve from 2027.  There model is successful and scalable.  I believe there is significant potential for NPAT to further significantly improve as the economy improves. 

I support waiting until 2028 or 2029 before looking for a buyer.

I Agree 321 that's a given ,but once the big money realizes this, it get greedy & wants it all. The minor shareholders will get the crumbs as per

Looking forward to MFB reporting on Thursday.  Its been a solid investment with very modest risk for me getting in last May at just under 20 cents.  Up 45% in the last year inclusive of two dividends received and another one due next month.   Very happy with that considering they'd already proven their business model was resilient when I invested last year.  It'll be interesting to see what comes out of the strategic review, I hope nothing and the growth in dividends in the years ahead will be very rewarding indeed.

Holding both mfb and peb combined 15 percent of portfolio. Doing well compared to rest of nz market (for now). Happy holder

Big day today ...profit a fraction higher than guided. ...and a great start to F2 sales wise

Share price over 30 cents by close tomorrow I reckon

Got out of bed and fed the dog early. TRA, TWR and MFB all reporting this morning. Beagle will be a busy dog.

First impressions.  Very solid result and very resilient performance for the first period of trading in FY27. They nearly listened to my loud barking at last years annual meeting and have paid a total dividend for the year of 1.9 cps fully imputed.  (I would have liked to see 2.0 cps for the year)

Quote·Revenue of $170.2 million, up 5.0% on FY25
·EBITDA of $16.4 million, up from $16.1 million in FY25
·NPAT of $6.7 million, up 5.3% on FY25
·Net debt reduced by $5.1 million to $1.9 million and free cash flow of $8.5million
·FY26 H2 revenue growth of 6.2% year on year
·Gross Margin stable at 49.0% and above the 5-year average
·Active customers at 57.1k with improved lifetime value and retention
·Fully imputed final dividend of 1.15 cents per share declared, payable in June

Gosh, almost debt free with only $1.9m debt left, that's a lot quicker than I thought.  No mucking around with the dividend, ex divvy date is 3 June.
What are they going to do with that $8.5m free cash flow in FY27 and beyond ?  3 cps fully imputed dividends for FY27 giving a 15.7% gross yield going forward ?

QuoteEarly trading in FY27 has remained encouraging, with demand trends continuing to track positively with revenue growth of 5.1% for the first 7 weeks of the financial year, reflecting continued sales growth from the execution of our plan and strength of our customer base.

My Food Bag announced strategic review

As previously announced, the Board has commenced a review to evaluate its ownership, capital structure and strategic options. My Food Bag has engaged Cameron Partners as its financial adviser, but the review remains in its preliminary stages and there is no certainty that any transaction involving My Food Bag will eventuate. My Food Bag will continue to keep shareholders and the market updated in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

Early trading in FY27 looks very robust indeed.  Very impressive.

Impressed with this;
Net debt reduced by $5.1 million to $1.9 million and free cash flow of $8.5million

Quote from: winner (n) on May 21, 2026, 07:41 AMBig day today ...profit a fraction higher than guided. ...and a great start to F2 sales wise

Share price over 30 cents by close tomorrow I reckon

I think it deserves to be where you suggested.  I'm very impressed with their resiliency against an incredibly weak economy over the last few years.  Maintaining ~ 5% growth year to date in the current geopolitical turmoil is also very impressive.  With debt coming down at real pace, (almost extinguished), and very strong free cash flow the business is well positioned to steadily grow profitability in the years ahead.  Just on lower interest costs and depreciation alone I see them doing circa $7.3m NPAT, approx 3 cps in EPS for FY27, perhaps a bit more.  At the rate they have been paying down debt they will be debt free before the end of 1H FY27, 6 months earlier than I have been forecasting.
Disc: I topped up with a few more this morning.

I'm thinking the economy cant be nearly as bad as media makes out if people can afford discretionary things like MFB

Quote from: Minimoke on May 21, 2026, 12:59 PMI'm thinking the economy cant be nearly as bad as media makes out if people can afford discretionary things like MFB

Only 57,000 households ......less than 3% of total households

Not everybody affected by this K-shaped economy

MFB  has a static base of 57k households (same as FY25) and it's hard to see how they expect to increase that base without reducing prices. That is unlikely given two of their biggest inputs (transport and  ingredient costs) are likely to go up, not down.
When you look at the actual numbers (instead of the %'s off what is a pretty low base) everything is pretty much static - EPS, profits, EBITDA, customer base, margins. Yet dividend has increased. Hmmm...haven't we been here before?
I'm not a holder so I won't bother looking into their accounts but I would suggest a close look at how their free cash flow and debt reduction was achieved. Just a thought.

Suppose a reasonable sales trend since 2018

CAGR 1.7% ....but recent sales growth a bit more so that's good

Sort of supports what liard was saying

MFB Chart.JPG

A quick AI check of MFB customer numbers since listing:

FY21 (Post-Listing): 66,492 active customers
FY22: ~71,500 active customers (Company prospectus & prospective financial updates)
FY23: ~57,500 active customers
FY24: 56,800 active customers
FY25: 57,000 active customers
FY26: 57,100 active customers

So if the market has reached saturation point and the economy is in recession, where is the growth going to come from? Margins and NP are static also. How are dividends going to be maintained, let alone increased?

The hype about their "recovery" reminds me of the hype around their listing. They were all gung-ho about prospects, paid inflated dividends (including a special dividend) then cancelled the final FY23 dividend and significantly lowered future dividends after a strategic review.

And here we are again. Inflated dividend, another strategic review. And dangle the bait about a potential "transaction" whilst at the same time deny any transaction exists. Classic. I'm surprised anyone at all is falling for this, but clearly they are as the SP has gone up. Go figure.
 
MFB is a classic no-growth company trying to convince investors that there's some great runway of growth ahead. There isn't - the customer numbers tell the story.

Here's where I see it for fresh capital applied here at 29.5 cents for FY27 income and beyond.
1. You get 1.15 cps fully imputed back shortly so the net investment for FY27 and beyond income is 28.35 cps.
2. $400K non recurring costs for establishment of My Food bag shop won't repeat, plus approx $500K less interest and bank line fees for FY27 = approx $900K cost savings in FY27, sales continuing to grow, I'm going with a conservative $7.5m net profit after tax for FY27 = EPS of 3.15 cps. Forward PE 28.35 / 3.15 = 9.0 i.e. a no growth PE for a company that is growing slowly despite prevailing economic headwinds.
3. Can easily pay 2.5 cps in fully imputed dividends in FY27 as by my calculations they will be completely debt free within 4 months, 2.5 / 0.72 = 3.47 cps gross / 28.35 cps = 12.2% gross yield for FY27. Should be more in FY28 and beyond as there's no debt for a full year.
4. $6.4m depreciation in FY26, (non cash) could come down in FY27 and beyond.

Summary: Basically now a debt free business that has proven to be extremely resilient despite years of headwinds from recession trading on compelling metrics. The icing on the cake is the stock is "In Play". MFB looks like a very one sided asymmetric bet to me in terms of reward v very modest risk.
Disc: I added more today.

Quote from: winner (n) on May 21, 2026, 07:41 AMBig day today ...profit a fraction higher than guided. ...and a great start to F2 sales wise

Share price over 30 cents by close tomorrow I reckon

On track 30+

Those forward metrics look, in my view, completely fanciful and ignore the reality of NZ's economic conditions and a product that will struggle to attract more customers. History repeating here. Hype getting ahead of common sense.

Not at all LL. I've explained $900k of cost savings in the year ahead. On top of that its likely depreciation will be lower and in addition to that sales are tracking 5% ahead. Projection is well explained by simple math's.  Maybe if you actually had a look at the financial's you'd get it.

Quote from: winner (n) on May 21, 2026, 06:07 PMOn track 30+

Absolutely winner & I think along with the new offerings of fresh start , Basil sums it up perfectly the maths do make sense a debt free profitable business what the !!!
Condolence's to any one caught up in the I P O slaughter but they need to get over it & smell the coffee 

Quote from: Basil on May 21, 2026, 08:03 PMNot at all LL. I've explained $900k of cost savings in the year ahead. On top of that its likely depreciation will be lower and in addition to that sales are tracking 5% ahead. Projection is well explained by simple math's.  Maybe if you actually had a look at the financial's you'd get it.

I did, and I don't get it. Looks hopelessly overoptimistic to me. When you can't attract new customers, your input costs are going up and the market is very price sensitive then where to you go? Creative accounting I guess. Like goodwill and "intangible assets" being worth $82m (77% of total assets). Anyway, I've never been a holder and all I'm saying is tread very carefully with MFB. It's the same company with the same management selling the same product in a diminished market. Different his time? We'll see.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 21, 2026, 04:49 PMA quick AI check of MFB customer numbers since listing:

FY21 (Post-Listing): 66,492 active customers
FY22: ~71,500 active customers (Company prospectus & prospective financial updates)
FY23: ~57,500 active customers
FY24: 56,800 active customers
FY25: 57,000 active customers
FY26: 57,100 active customers

.......the customer numbers tell the story.

Scary numbers indeed.

I couldn't disagree more.  Its quite clear that Covid and the fear of going out to do your own shopping gave them a massive tailwind for a short period of time which was never going to be repeatable other than in another Covid type era lockdown.  Also clear that MFB has done a fine job of building and holding its customer numbers during all the subsequent years of deep recession while contemporaneously driving down its costs through a roboticized warehouse with pick technology and almost complete repayment of all its debt building further resiliency into their business model.

The business has never been in better shape with no debt shortly, to look at new methods to grow the business when the economy starts to recover.
Clearly the market really likes the result and the excellent resilience the business has displayed despite the current geopolitical turmoil, even Blind Freddy can see that.  I'm happy with my numbers.

I'm up 60% in one year inclusive of dividends on a very low risk investment which is still trading on truly compelling metrics as well as being "in play" in a corporate sense. Additional to that is the forthcoming dividend in June.   

 

Quote from: Pierre on May 16, 2026, 10:49 AMDare I suggest that, following the recent LCD news, an investment next week in PEB at 27cps is likely to produce a dramatically higher capital gain  before year-end than an investment in MFB at a similar SP. Not investment advice, of course.

Early days of course but its interesting that despite the advice of provisional approval for PEB being common knowledge in the market for a full week this hasn't really been the transformational announcement some would have been hoping for with the shares languishing when I looked a few minutes ago at 25.5 cps, down 1.5 cents for the week to date whereas the market seems to approve of MFB's steady progress in lifting profitability with the share price up 3 cps or just over 10%.   These two of course have as much in common as a Tortoise and a Hare and all they have in common was the same share price last Friday. Just a good natured poke in the ribs back at you mate.  Of course its very early days and anything could happen by year end.

In a couple or three months MFB will be debt free.Current number of shares on issue is 251,374,466.The business is profitable.
This means they will have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
However PEB will most probably need another capital raise before they even break even.As for ever paying a divie.???Current number of shares on issue is 1,172,016,126 and goodness knows how many there will be before they break even.1.5 billion.?
Currently they remain unprofitable.

Quote from: Basil on May 22, 2026, 12:28 PMEarly days of course but its interesting that despite the advice of provisional approval for PEB being common knowledge in the market for a full week this hasn't really been the transformational announcement some would have been hoping for with the shares languishing when I looked a few minutes ago at 25.5 cps, down 1.5 cents for the week to date whereas the market seems to approve of MFB's steady progress in lifting profitability with the share price up 3 cps or just over 10%.   These two of course have as much in common as a Tortoise and a Hare and all they have in common was the same share price last Friday. Just a good natured poke in the ribs back at you mate.  Of course its very early days and anything could happen by year end.

I do think the PEB cap raise is confusing the situation somewhat. Will be interesting to see where they are at in three weeks from now. They report fy result Monday

Quote from: Basil on May 22, 2026, 12:28 PMEarly days of course but its interesting that despite the advice of provisional approval for PEB being common knowledge in the market for a full week this hasn't really been the transformational announcement some would have been hoping for with the shares languishing when I looked a few minutes ago at 25.5 cps, down 1.5 cents for the week to date whereas the market seems to approve of MFB's steady progress in lifting profitability with the share price up 3 cps or just over 10%.   These two of course have as much in common as a Tortoise and a Hare and all they have in common was the same share price last Friday. Just a good natured poke in the ribs back at you mate.  Of course its very early days and anything could happen by year end.

Haha. I consider my ribs poked! But yes, I did say year-end, not week-end and plenty of water to flow under the bridge before we get to 31 December. It's a stupid competition but I still think you should save your MFB divvies to buy the drinks at the Viaduct next year. :)

I agree with the comments from Basil.  I have been impressed with My Food Bag.  While the customer numbers have been flat over the last few years revenue has increased.  I think this has partially been the benefit of new offerings such as Christmas meals and gift packs.

However, the most impressive thing is that My Food Bag has consistently increased profitability in a flat economy in the past last two years.  They have done by reducing costs.  It has resulted in lowering debt markedly and first re-introducing and now increasing the dividend. 

The most important thing is the future.  I agree with Basil that My Food Bag could save another $900k in FY 27 due to reduced interest costs and the $400K non-recurring costs for establishment of My Food bag shop will not repeat.  This, and the complete clearing  of debt, should lead to a significantly increased dividend in FY27.  Furthermore, I predict that revenue NPAT will increase further as the economy (finally) improves – likely from 2027 onwards. 

The outlook is so strong I am wondering why a review is appropriate now.  I believe that the situation will have improved further in a couple of years and the value of My Food Bag will be significantly higher.  It may be best to wait and do the review then

Quote from: Interested321 on May 22, 2026, 01:43 PMI agree with the comments from Basil.  I have been impressed with My Food Bag.  While the customer numbers have been flat over the last few years revenue has increased.  I think this has partially been the benefit of new offerings such as Christmas meals and gift packs.

However, the most impressive thing is that My Food Bag has consistently increased profitability in a flat economy in the past last two years.  They have done by reducing costs.  It has resulted in lowering debt markedly and first re-introducing and now increasing the dividend. 

The most important thing is the future.  I agree with Basil that My Food Bag could save another $900k in FY 27 due to reduced interest costs and the $400K non-recurring costs for establishment of My Food bag shop will not repeat.  This, and the complete clearing  of debt, should lead to a significantly increased dividend in FY27.  Furthermore, I predict that revenue NPAT will increase further as the economy (finally) improves – likely from 2027 onwards. 

The outlook is so strong I am wondering why a review is appropriate now.  I believe that the situation will have improved further in a couple of years and the value of My Food Bag will be significantly higher.  It may be best to wait and do the review then

Revenue hasn't really increased:

FY22: $194.0 million
FY23: $175.7 million
FY24: $162.2 million
FY25: $162.1 million
FY26: $170.2 million

Sure, up 5% from last year but that was the lowest total revenue since listing. And it's 4 % lower than 3 years ago (post covid). As for net profit, same deal:

FY22: $20.0 million
FY23: $7.85 million
FY24: $6.04 million
FY25: $6.35 million
FY26: $6.70 million

The economy isn't going to improve anytime soon, in fact economists are saying that the real costs from the Iran war are yet to materialise and as oil/fertiliser reserves deplete prices will going up again as will inflation and possibly interest rates. So I can't see where the growth for a discretionary business with that track record is going to come from against this backdrop.

Quote from: winner (n) on May 21, 2026, 03:03 PMSuppose a reasonable sales trend since 2018

CAGR 1.7% ....but recent sales growth a bit more so that's good

Sort of supports what liard was saying

MFB Chart.JPG

1.7% pa revenue growth since 2018  ...... in real terms going backwards

The god ol RBNZ calculator says compound average rate has been 3.6% pa and there's been a 24.2% Change in purchasing

FLLYR: MFB: My Food Bag reports full year profitability up 5.3%

My Food Bag reports 6.2% growth in H2 with full year profitability up 5.3%
*Revenue of $170.2 million, up 5.0% on FY25 *EBITDA of $16.4 million, up
from $16.1 million in FY25 *NPAT of $6.7 million, up 5.3% on FY25 *Net debt
reduced by $5.1 million to $1.9 million and free cash flow of $8.5million
*FY26 H2 revenue growth of 6.2% year on year *Gross Margin stable at 49.0%
and above the 5-year average *Active customers at 57.1k with improved
lifetime value and retention *Fully imputed final dividend of 1.15 cents per
share declared, payable in June Meal kit and food solutions business My
Food Bag Group Limited today reported revenue of $170.2 million for the year
to 31 March 2026 (FY26), up 5.0% on FY25, with growth and profitability
accelerating in the second half. Net profit after tax (NPAT) increased to
$6.7 million, up 5.3%, reflecting strong operational delivery and improving
customer performance, including higher retention and increased order
frequency. Second half revenue rose 6.2% year-on-year, signalling a clear
lift in demand. Commenting on the result, CEO Mark Winter said: "FY26
marks a clear step forward. We are seeing the impact of the work we have done
to strengthen our proposition, with higher retention, increased order
frequency and more consistent customer engagement." "Our focus has been on
delivering a better overall experience and clear value for money, and that is
translating into customers ordering more often and staying with us longer."
Business highlights My Food Bag strengthened its core offering across the
year, delivering greater flexibility, convenience and value while driving
improved customer performance. Within our portfolio of brands, the My Food
Bag brand performed strongly, supported by continued investment in marketing
and customer engagement, reinforcing its position as a trusted choice for New
Zealand households. This is underpinned by a continued focus on quality, with
98% of fresh protein and produce sourced locally and a consistent emphasis on
delivering delicious meals customers enjoy week after week. The business
continued to improve the end-to-end customer experience, including the
ability to double protein, supporting higher engagement and increased basket
size. FY26 marked the first full year of expanding into new occasions via
the Shop, such as gifting, care packages and flexible one-off meals, all
available without a subscription, offering a convenient, fast-delivery option
and establishing an additional growth channel alongside My Food Bag's core
offering for consumers and corporate customers. Alongside this, My Food
Bag strengthened its focus on health, responding to growing demand for
solutions that support everyday wellbeing. This included introducing a range
designed to support customers using GLP-1 medications and building
partnerships with health professionals, reflecting a broader commitment to
helping New Zealanders eat well in a way that is both achievable and
sustainable. "We have continued to build strength in the My Food Bag brand
while broadening how customers can engage with us," said Winter. "Delivering
value for money alongside quality and variety is what is driving stronger
engagement and giving us confidence in how the business is tracking."
Financial performance Revenue growth was driven by higher volumes and
improved brand mix, supported by stronger customer retention and engagement.
Gross margins were maintained in line with historical levels despite higher
inflation with supply chain initiatives and pricing actions recovering
ingredient cost pressures. The business generated strong free cash flow of
$8.5 million supporting continued dividend payments and further reduction in
debt, with net debt reducing to $1.9 million. The Board is pleased to
declare a fully imputed final dividend of 1.15 cents per share, payable in
June. This brings the total dividend for FY26 to 1.90 cents per share (fully
imputed). The Board has decided that the Dividend Reinvestment Plan will not
operate in respect of the upcoming dividend. "The Board remains focused on
delivering sustainable returns for shareholders, supported by strong cash
flow and disciplined capital management," said Chair Tony Carter. Outlook
My Food Bag enters FY27 with positive momentum and is well positioned to
continue to support New Zealanders. The portfolio of brands, My Food Bag,
Bargain Box and Fresh Start, positions My Food Bag to meet customers across a
range of needs and price points, combining value, quality and variety, with a
growing focus on health-led solutions. "In the current environment, value
for money is critical, and that is where we are well positioned," said
Winter. "A consistent weekly price and a range of quality, healthy options
give customers certainty and real value, delivered to their door." Fuel
supply disruption has recently driven an increase in distribution costs, with
further ingredient cost pressures now beginning to emerge. Active mitigation
of these impacts through supply chain optimisation and cost control is being
undertaken where possible. Consistent with prior years we will take a
balanced approach to pricing. Early trading in FY27 has remained
encouraging, with demand trends continuing to track positively with revenue
growth of 5.1% for the first 7 weeks of the financial year, reflecting
continued sales growth from the execution of our plan and strength of our
customer base. My Food Bag announced strategic review As previously
announced, the Board has commenced a review to evaluate its ownership,
capital structure and strategic options. My Food Bag has engaged Cameron
Partners as its financial adviser, but the review remains in its preliminary
stages and there is no certainty that any transaction involving My Food Bag
will eventuate. My Food Bag will continue to keep shareholders and the market
updated in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

Reads really well to me.  Amazing performance in the depths of a never ending recession.  Looks like it will produce in excess of $9m free cash flow from operations this year.  What will do with all that beautiful free flow cash ?  Share buy-back to turbocharge EPS growth ?

My Food Bag sales growth since 2018 been 1.7% pa (as posted earlier)

Hospitality sales have grown at 4.0% pa over same period (Stats NZ)

Maybe means something?

Quote from: Basil on May 22, 2026, 04:07 PMFLLYR: MFB: My Food Bag reports full year profitability up 5.3%

My Food Bag reports 6.2% growth in H2 with full year profitability up 5.3%
*Revenue of $170.2 million, up 5.0% on FY25 *EBITDA of $16.4 million, up
from $16.1 million in FY25 *NPAT of $6.7 million, up 5.3% on FY25 *Net debt
reduced by $5.1 million to $1.9 million and free cash flow of $8.5million
*FY26 H2 revenue growth of 6.2% year on year *Gross Margin stable at 49.0%
and above the 5-year average *Active customers at 57.1k with improved
lifetime value and retention *Fully imputed final dividend of 1.15 cents per
share declared, payable in June Meal kit and food solutions business My
Food Bag Group Limited today reported revenue of $170.2 million for the year
to 31 March 2026 (FY26), up 5.0% on FY25, with growth and profitability
accelerating in the second half. Net profit after tax (NPAT) increased to
$6.7 million, up 5.3%, reflecting strong operational delivery and improving
customer performance, including higher retention and increased order
frequency. Second half revenue rose 6.2% year-on-year, signalling a clear
lift in demand. Commenting on the result, CEO Mark Winter said: "FY26
marks a clear step forward. We are seeing the impact of the work we have done
to strengthen our proposition, with higher retention, increased order
frequency and more consistent customer engagement." "Our focus has been on
delivering a better overall experience and clear value for money, and that is
translating into customers ordering more often and staying with us longer."
Business highlights My Food Bag strengthened its core offering across the
year, delivering greater flexibility, convenience and value while driving
improved customer performance. Within our portfolio of brands, the My Food
Bag brand performed strongly, supported by continued investment in marketing
and customer engagement, reinforcing its position as a trusted choice for New
Zealand households. This is underpinned by a continued focus on quality, with
98% of fresh protein and produce sourced locally and a consistent emphasis on
delivering delicious meals customers enjoy week after week. The business
continued to improve the end-to-end customer experience, including the
ability to double protein, supporting higher engagement and increased basket
size. FY26 marked the first full year of expanding into new occasions via
the Shop, such as gifting, care packages and flexible one-off meals, all
available without a subscription, offering a convenient, fast-delivery option
and establishing an additional growth channel alongside My Food Bag's core
offering for consumers and corporate customers. Alongside this, My Food
Bag strengthened its focus on health, responding to growing demand for
solutions that support everyday wellbeing. This included introducing a range
designed to support customers using GLP-1 medications and building
partnerships with health professionals, reflecting a broader commitment to
helping New Zealanders eat well in a way that is both achievable and
sustainable. "We have continued to build strength in the My Food Bag brand
while broadening how customers can engage with us," said Winter. "Delivering
value for money alongside quality and variety is what is driving stronger
engagement and giving us confidence in how the business is tracking."
Financial performance Revenue growth was driven by higher volumes and
improved brand mix, supported by stronger customer retention and engagement.
Gross margins were maintained in line with historical levels despite higher
inflation with supply chain initiatives and pricing actions recovering
ingredient cost pressures. The business generated strong free cash flow of
$8.5 million supporting continued dividend payments and further reduction in
debt, with net debt reducing to $1.9 million. The Board is pleased to
declare a fully imputed final dividend of 1.15 cents per share, payable in
June. This brings the total dividend for FY26 to 1.90 cents per share (fully
imputed). The Board has decided that the Dividend Reinvestment Plan will not
operate in respect of the upcoming dividend. "The Board remains focused on
delivering sustainable returns for shareholders, supported by strong cash
flow and disciplined capital management," said Chair Tony Carter. Outlook
My Food Bag enters FY27 with positive momentum and is well positioned to
continue to support New Zealanders. The portfolio of brands, My Food Bag,
Bargain Box and Fresh Start, positions My Food Bag to meet customers across a
range of needs and price points, combining value, quality and variety, with a
growing focus on health-led solutions. "In the current environment, value
for money is critical, and that is where we are well positioned," said
Winter. "A consistent weekly price and a range of quality, healthy options
give customers certainty and real value, delivered to their door." Fuel
supply disruption has recently driven an increase in distribution costs, with
further ingredient cost pressures now beginning to emerge. Active mitigation
of these impacts through supply chain optimisation and cost control is being
undertaken where possible. Consistent with prior years we will take a
balanced approach to pricing. Early trading in FY27 has remained
encouraging, with demand trends continuing to track positively with revenue
growth of 5.1% for the first 7 weeks of the financial year, reflecting
continued sales growth from the execution of our plan and strength of our
customer base. My Food Bag announced strategic review As previously
announced, the Board has commenced a review to evaluate its ownership,
capital structure and strategic options. My Food Bag has engaged Cameron
Partners as its financial adviser, but the review remains in its preliminary
stages and there is no certainty that any transaction involving My Food Bag
will eventuate. My Food Bag will continue to keep shareholders and the market
updated in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

Reads really well to me.  Amazing performance in the depths of a never ending recession.  Looks like it will produce in excess of $9m free cash flow from operations this year.  What will do with all that beautiful free flow cash ?  Share buy-back to turbocharge EPS growth ?

Of course it reads well, he's the CEO!

I remember Spark using its "free cash flow" to buy back shares which turned out badly for shareholders like me, as it seems that the business wasn't really growing in real terms ie smoke and mirrors. Sound familiar?

I think MFB's "strategic review" is a fishing trip to try and find a buyer for a business that is going nowhere, and more than likely will start going backwards. A takeover would be the best possible result for shareholders, before it hits the fan (again).

Well I wasn't going too, but since you brought up Spark (which by the way you said was compelling buying or words to that effect at $4.50), Spark have been paying excess dividends by cannibalizing their business, (selling off parts of it), and also heavily increasing debt over the years. 

MFB on the other hand have paid dividends well within the scope of their earnings per share and very comfortably indeed within their free cash flow per share and have done this while contemporaneously nearly paying their bank debt off entirely.

Its a K shaped economy LL.  Those with plenty of money, (probably the 3% Winner suggested), can afford the convenience of having their food pre-packaged and delivered and based on the very latest sales information from MFB they're continuing to do so despite heightened geopolitical tension and the rise in fuel costs.

Agree on one point with you.  The Cameron partners thing is a fishing expedition.  The thing with fishing expeditions is sometimes you can land a really good kingfish...ask me how I know  :)

"What will do with all that beautiful free flow cash ?  Share buy-back to turbocharge EPS growth ?"

Imagine the yield if they distributed 100 or 90 percent NPAT divvie. Currently 70?

MFB has 57,100 active customers - Active Customers are defined as the number of unique customers who have purchased in the last 13 weeks to end of March

They say 34,000 are retained customers while 23,100 are acquired and reactivated customers

They also say that 59.5% are retained customers - who have taken delivery in consecutive quarters, continues - that's 34,000 as well

The split between active and acquired/reactivated has remained pretty constant over the years.

The question to ponder on is 'If they are getting 34,000 new customers regularly than why isn't the total number of active customers increasing (quite rapidly)?' - especially when they say  'Cancellation rates have reduced year on year showing that customers are continuing their subscription for longer'

Churn quite high?

Doesn't seem to gel with me

Managing costs well they say

Is ' recipe development, which continue to deliver cost control efficiencies' code for less good stuff in the bags?

This sounds really cool -

Pilot with WM Robotics, ready made meal vending machines in offices,
apartments and hotels

• This channel is proving to be a valuable test and learn opportunity
• Early results validated demand for convenient, healthy meals


Get home from work and pick up a ready made meal in the foyer and 5 minutes in microwave and dinners done

They say 'Order frequency increased to 5.5 in FY26' which seems to imply that each customer on average order 5.5 times

If so 57,100 times 5.5 is 314,000 orders - so I presume that's 5.5 orders per quarter

Over the year on average customer orders 22.3 times

That's pretty good

Highlights the importance of keeping the real regulars happy and contented ..or as they say engaged

Quote from: Basil on May 22, 2026, 05:38 PMWell I wasn't going too, but since you brought up Spark (which by the way you said was compelling buying or words to that effect at $4.50), Spark have been paying excess dividends by cannibalizing their business, (selling off parts of it), and also heavily increasing debt over the years. 

MFB on the other hand have paid dividends well within the scope of their earnings per share and very comfortably indeed within their free cash flow per share and have done this while contemporaneously nearly paying their bank debt off entirely.

Its a K shaped economy LL.  Those with plenty of money, (probably the 3% Winner suggested), can afford the convenience of having their food pre-packaged and delivered and based on the very latest sales information from MFB they're continuing to do so despite heightened geopolitical tension and the rise in fuel costs.

Agree on one point with you.  The Cameron partners thing is a fishing expedition.  The thing with fishing expeditions is sometimes you can land a really good kingfish...ask me how I know  :)

We all make mistakes Basil. I still hold Spark for the yield and remain convinced that in the long term it will start to grow again. Sparks fall was unprecedented and probably an overreaction that is yet to be corrected. I seem to remember you were a big promoter of Heartland right before it fell from grace, so no one gets it right all of the time.

MFB has shown no growth in any of the real indicators - Revenue, NP or EPS - and in real terms have gone backwards. Normally you would not be investing in companies that have a track record of not showing fundamental growth. Maybe MFB is the exception to your rule. The yield - sustainable or not (I would say not) isn't anything near what it should be for such a risky stock trading in economic conditions that will get worse not better. I don't see the core numbers changing - why would they? They've managed to cut costs but you can only go so far with that before the quality of the product starts suffering. And there's plenty of substitutes available now including Supermarket brands. Anyway, we'll see where things are in a year. Sit close to the exit would be the best advice for holders.

Quote from: winner (n) on May 23, 2026, 10:43 AMThis sounds really cool -

Pilot with WM Robotics, ready made meal vending machines in offices,
apartments and hotels

• This channel is proving to be a valuable test and learn opportunity
• Early results validated demand for convenient, healthy meals
Get home from work and pick up a ready made meal in the foyer and 5 minutes in microwave and dinners done

Sounds interesting and could be a growth area.  Lots of big apartment blocks in Auckland to put vending machines into. 
FY25 to FY26 MFB is growing EPS and top line revenue, I think that's clear to everyone except those who choose not to see it.  I think repayment of all bank debt is a game changer as that free's up a significant amount of free cash flow each year for new initiatives such as what Winner has highlighted.  I'm excited for the future and believe MFB will have an extremely high gross dividend yield in the years ahead assuming we even get there and don't get taken over first.

Believe me LL, over the very long run I did extremely well as a Heartland shareholder.  I didn't get every cyclical call right but I got nearly all of them right and the one I got wrong I escaped from at ~ break even inclusive of dividends during that period.

As Basil says what's not to like with this trend

Rolling 12 month Free Cash Flow the last few years

Mar 23   1.4m
Sep 23   1.1m
Ma 24   3.5m
SEP 24   5.8m
Mar 25   7.6m
Sep 25   7.3m
Mar 26   8.5m


Maybe $10m in March 2027

Quote from: winner (n) on May 24, 2026, 09:52 AMAs Basil says what's not to like with this trend

Rolling 12 month Free Cash Flow the last few years

Mar 23   1.4m
Sep 23   1.1m
Ma 24   3.5m
SEP 24   5.8m
Mar 25   7.6m
Sep 25   7.3m
Mar 26   8.5m


Maybe $10m in March 2027

There's an old saying that's quite popular with old bean counters like me.  "Cash flow is the lifeblood of business".  That's a very healthy business and a fantastic looking trend.  Thanks for crunching the numbers on that mate.

Quote from: Basil on May 23, 2026, 05:18 PMSounds interesting and could be a growth area.  Lots of big apartment blocks in Auckland to put vending machines into. 
FY25 to FY26 MFB is growing EPS and top line revenue, I think that's clear to everyone except those who choose not to see it.  I think repayment of all bank debt is a game changer as that free's up a significant amount of free cash flow each year for new initiatives such as what Winner has highlighted.  I'm excited for the future and believe MFB will have an extremely high gross dividend yield in the years ahead assuming we even get there and don't get taken over first.

Believe me LL, over the very long run I did extremely well as a Heartland shareholder.  I didn't get every cyclical call right but I got nearly all of them right and the one I got wrong I escaped from at ~ break even inclusive of dividends during that period.

Total revenue and Np has increased inconsequentially from last year (their worst year) and is less than it was three years ago. And no -  EPS hasn't changed from last year, or for several years - still 3c. Check the accounts.
 The company has been effectively standing still for a number of years. Can free cash flow and increased dividends be maintained when the business isn't growing and economic conditions are worsening? I could be wrong, but the cynic in me thinks management  - which has a huge credibility gap - wants to get out and is  trying to find a buyer, whilst trying to give the impression that the company is growing, when in fact it isn't.
Free cash flow can be enhanced with one-off (and reversible) cuts and deferents. Can it be maintained? - we'll see - but until the company shows genuine growth in the metrics that traditional accountants tend to look for then I see MFB as a trading stock, not a buy and hold.

Investor presentation is here, I disagree with LL but people can make their own mind up.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/472999/attachment/468886/472999-468886.pdf

Quote from: Basil on May 25, 2026, 11:26 AMInvestor presentation is here, I disagree with LL but people can make their own mind up.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/472999/attachment/468886/472999-468886.pdf

That's a good read Basil ,thanks for posting this update . I like the future growth possibilities through fresh start & other streams corporate & health service meals robotic etc I heard these where stating to evolve .
I might add no way am I to concerned in how these take off or flop ,just purely the core company m f b  soon to be  a debt free business Paying a large dividend very easily sustained  from profit .
Also they keep shareholders well Informed with updates as all should

I'm in it for the dividend feeds too Auto Rower, or we can land a big kingfish with a takeover, I'm okay with either outcome but would probably just prefer the bigger dividend feeds.  Its interesting that this year's profit growth came despite a $400k higher charge for depreciation.  When I have more time I'll get to digging into why depreciation was higher.

About to breakthrough the 30 cent resistance ... maybe even today

Head to 35 /40 after that

I wonder what effect that would have on any kingi  takeover winner , as the sp goes higher so do the expectations of a more substantial Takeover bid/offer .
 I suppose they will have to wait now until the dividend is paid out !!!

I've had to lighten up on a few . Looked like a big buyer @ 30 cents on the close.
Hopefully they know something .....

My Food Bag proud they maintained margins even though they quoted ' Ingredient inflation with selected price index* up 3.4% year on year - produce up 6.4% and meat, poultry and fish up 7.3% year on year'

Great story but those %ages are what consumers paid'

A better guide as to what cost rose by is the  The Grocery Supplier Cost Index from Infometrics which is based on what Foodstuffs pay for stuff (no what they sell it for). That index rose by 2.1% in March 2026 from a year earlier.

So My Food Bag is a bit cheeky using a 3.4% number when their input costs increases are possibly a lot lower - after all they tout the actions they are taking to mitigate cost increases.

Never mind they told a great story

My pricing monitor shows MFB haven't had a price rises for a while. ...might need to extend the range of SKUs I monitor.

Cecilia on acquisition trail. .her Tend just acquired The Doctors from GXH for $270m


Now that out of way let's get back to My Food Bag she says

Basil - You up to becoming a Director

Easy peasy job for a semiretired professional gentleman

Sure many here would vote for you ... I'll sort out support from Waterman guys


https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/469735.pdf

Definitely your best suggestion yet winner.
 Gets my vote ,

I think the board are doing a very good job.  I doubt with a lack of any food industry experience I could add any value but thank you for your kind words