I recently attended a presentation given by Bryan Leyland, a retired hydro engineer with many years experience in electricity generation in NZ and elsewhere in the world.
His talk centred on the information being used by the NZ government Climate Commission to justify government spending on climate change policies. This is information that has been greatly extrapolated and misused to present unattainable targets that suit current political whims, or required to be achieved within an electoral cycle to influence voters.
Fundamentally, he questioned the approach of listening to the unsubstantiated demands of a pot lid banging crowd vs. the use of scientific data to set realistic future climate change policies.
Despite warnings, the Climate Commission has pushed on, and when questioned they site 'consensus of opinion' rather than any scientific facts to back up their recommendations for future climate change policies. The present goals around electricity generation being formulated into policy are simply not achievable in practice, and ludicrously expensive.
His presentation can be viewed at www.bryanleyland.co.nz
It contains interesting graphs of NZ & global energy sources, use and efficiencies.
My interest stems from involvement in a large composting operation with some limited exposure to consultants working for the Climate Commission. When I was contacted about information for their climate brief, I was surprised at their seemingly preconceived notions, a lack of understanding of scientific principles, an unwillingness to listen to anything that veered from their narrow brief, and a feeling that information was open to interpretation.
So back to the presentation. This is not about climate change denial; it's about being realistic about what changes really are achievable, what actions actually make a difference, and what are realistic timeframes to produce enough electricity to meet the future needs of NZ.
Interestingly, nuclear is one of the options for future electricity generation in NZ - is it safe - have you ever considered how come the crew of a nuclear submarine don't die from radiation exposure when living in such close confines next to a nuclear reactor on board - could be that small contained sealed plug-in nuclear reactors provide future energy for townships. The development of nuclear power has come a long way since plants like Chernobyl, Fukushima and Three Mile Island were built 50 - 60 years ago. Something will be needed to charge all those EV's.
I have seen him speak a few times now. He is very reasoned and not one of the "virtuous" types.
Quote from: Whome on Mar 08, 2023, 11:10 AMSomething will be needed to charge all those EV's.
You're not thinking far ahead enough. There will be very few EV's to charge, once 15 minute cities are implemented and 99% of the population is prevented from driving anywhere. Basically if you can't walk or cycle to it, you won't get to it.
Never going to happen in NZ. Ridiculous notion.
Quote from: KW on Mar 09, 2023, 11:00 AMYou're not thinking far ahead enough. There will be very few EV's to charge, once 15 minute cities are implemented and 99% of the population is prevented from driving anywhere. Basically if you can't walk or cycle to it, you won't get to it.
Quote from: KW on Mar 09, 2023, 11:00 AMYou're not thinking far ahead enough. There will be very few EV's to charge, once 15 minute cities are implemented and 99% of the population is prevented from driving anywhere. Basically if you can't walk or cycle to it, you won't get to it.
Yes I've watched a couple of clips on this and it would probably work in many heavily populated countries but can you imagine all the motor sports enthusiasts walking or cycling to watch their events in NZ? Lol
Quote from: Breezy on Mar 09, 2023, 01:49 PMYes I've watched a couple of clips on this and it would probably work in many heavily populated countries but can you imagine all the motor sports enthusiasts walking or cycling to watch their events in NZ? Lol
There won't be any motor sports. Or boats. No fossil fuels remember?
Guess that depends on what time frame you are talking about. I don't believe I will see that happen in my life time.
Quote from: KW on Mar 09, 2023, 06:54 PMThere won't be any motor sports. Or boats. No fossil fuels remember?
If you have a LOT of trees on your property and simply let them grow I reckon you can feel good you're doing your bit to chip in.
If you don't have the land for that then maybe consider getting involved with one of the many tree planting programs around.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 11, 2023, 10:51 AMIf you have a LOT of trees on your property and simply let them grow I reckon you can feel good you're doing your bit to chip in.
If you don't have the land for that then maybe consider getting involved with one of the many tree planting programs around.
Well if you want healthier and faster growing trees then just own more cars and let them idle longer in your driveway as more abundant CO2 accelerates photosynthesis. ;D
Quote from: Breezy on Mar 11, 2023, 11:12 AMWell if you want healthier and faster growing trees then just own more cars and let them idle longer in your driveway as more abundant CO2 accelerates photosynthesis. ;D
I do my bit by burning my rubbish on a weekly basis. It does seem to help the plants that I grow in the garden as we have had a great harvest this year. (Not sure if the 2 are correlated)
I'm doing my bit by driving a fossil fuel powered car.
I think that is preferable to using dirty coal imported from Indonesia to generate power for an EV.
And as a poor person I like to pay my extra car tax so the wealthy can buy their EV. Helps remind me to keep my place.
I do my bit by chopping down various trees on my property. The sheep get the leaves which they turn into energy, protein and gasses.
The twigs and small branches go through the mulcher and are spread under various fruit trees to give me fruit, plus I use less water on the trees and the mulch suppresses weeds.
Anything larger gets cut and split into firewood, which is burned in winter to keep me warm a 5th time. This puts less pressure on the electricity network during peak demand while people charge their EVs, plus it provides CO2 to the other trees.
To fully complete the cycle the ashes get mixed in with the mulch which helps provide more flowers for my bees -> more honey. Nothing goes to waste given trees are a renewable resource.
Quote from: blackcap on May 17, 2023, 09:26 PMI do my bit by burning my rubbish on a weekly basis. It does seem to help the plants that I grow in the garden as we have had a great harvest this year. (Not sure if the 2 are correlated)
I'm sure its fun and all but I would strongly caution you against burning plastics. Some of the by-products of plastic burning can't even be said out loud on one breath and they are pretty nasty, like stay in your body for the rest of your life kind of thing.
Is the sea levels really rising? Or are those islands actually sinking.
well is this the future of farming in doors if things get a bit too hot outside?
https://edition.cnn.com/world/dubai-gigafarm-biggest-vertical-farm-climate-hnk-spc-int/index.html
A fascinating watch that looks at the long and short term data. Long video but worth watching.
Massive dumps of snow in the South Island and on the ski fields, basically more than ever yet the scaremongerers are still bleating on about the snow disappearing. Only difference is its been coming late over the last few seasons but not less of it.
Quote from: Breezy on Sep 13, 2024, 10:51 AMMassive dumps of snow in the South Island and on the ski fields, basically more than ever yet the scaremongerers are still bleating on about the snow disappearing. Only difference is its been coming late over the last few seasons but not less of it.
I suggest you stop this non sense here and now. Climate change is a fact ... and you are well known for spreading long debunked and clapped out conspiracy theories. Your ilk managed to destroy the other forum with this nonsense, don't do the same with this one.
Just changing your avatar does not help.
And yes - its not hard to see all over the place plenty of evidence for climate change, but its hard to see if you keep both of your eyes firmly closed.
Firstly I will address your post, no where did I deny climate change but yes I question the extent of the man made side of things. I was talking about some i know saying the snow will lessen and not arrive eventually.
Secondly you seem to exhibit a certain nastiness in your posts and once you get a vendetta against someone you can never let it go, im not the first to notice this.
Sad story for dinos - Europe got this year more than its fair share from climate change:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/18/floods-in-poland-and-wildfires-in-portugal-show-reality-of-climate-breakdown-says-eu
Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 23, 2024, 11:00 AMSad story for dinos - Europe got this year more than its fair share from climate change:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/18/floods-in-poland-and-wildfires-in-portugal-show-reality-of-climate-breakdown-says-eu
The EU equals Satan's mouthpiece.
Interesting - did some research on climate dinos ... but learned that even the Russians got it by now. Just imagine that - one of the most aggressive bullies in the world understands now the reality of climate change, just a small flock of climate dinos in NZ hasn't got the message yet.
https://archive-yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/russias-climate-change-turn-wall-street-journal
Quite sad .... and afraid even they will eventually go the way of the dodo.
Some of us still ignoring the signs of climate change in our own land - One in 200 yeas floods every other year are clearly just an unfortunate accident? And hey - don't we get more droughts and wild fires as compensation? So - all good?
Others can't ignore the problem anymore - and too many pay already for climate change with their life. Too bad? Or should we start to do something about it other than just shooting the messengers?
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/sep/23/malawi-climate-crisis-paying-with-our-lives-acc
Interesting - anybody knows how much humanity spends every year in subsidies just to make climate change worse?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/09/global-warming-subsidies-butterfly-emergency-nature-climate/
Correct - it is US$2.6tn spent annually on subsidies that harm the environment
This is US$2,600 b or US$2,600,000m
envfoesub.JPG
WOW - we clearly invest a lot to make the planet cooking ...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 25, 2024, 10:05 AMSome of us still ignoring the signs of climate change in our own land - One in 200 yeas floods every other year are clearly just an unfortunate accident? And hey - don't we get more droughts and wild fires as compensation? So - all good?
Others can't ignore the problem anymore - and too many pay already for climate change with their life. Too bad? Or should we start to do something about it other than just shooting the messengers?
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/sep/23/malawi-climate-crisis-paying-with-our-lives-acc
The local press here went on about the recent Auckland floods as a one in two hundred year event until Ian Wishart did some research and pointed out a number of equivalent or greater scale events in various parts of the country in the late 19th century . From memory he started out intending to review a longer period but ended up looking at only ten years because he was encountering so many heavy fall events. Many of them were in sparsely populated areas and so were not well remembered According to Wishart the NIWA database the press were using was filled with holes that no one was particularly fussed with filling in. It was telling that the press stopped claiming the record rainfall after Wishart proved impossible to shake..
This sort of thing makes me a bit sceptical when such records are claimed. Maybe it is true. Maybe not. Same sort of thing happens with reports of record forest fires in the U.S. when they are anything but records.
I can deal with records so long as they are real...
Jeez - all these amazing one-offs seem to just chase each other ... unprecedented floodings in Europe, Africa next and now it is Hurricane Helene creating havoc in the South West of the US;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/29/hurricane-helene-historic-flooding-global-heating-fema
The storm killed at least 69 people, according to state and local officials in South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. Officials feared still more bodies would be discovered.
But no worries, our resident dinos will tell us with popping eyes that nothing to see here - hurricanes' happen (and hey - they do).
FEMA should know a bit about this subject and they said that global heating made it worse, but hey, what would they know compared to our beloved climate dinos?
Never trust the science if you can find an anonymous nobody on the Internet saying something different ...
This guy has a different perspective. I like that he argues his case without appeals to emotion like "too many pay already for climate change with their life".
And yes of course we should be adapting, it seems to me most of the money spent trying to change the climate would be better spent trying to adapt to it (as we know for sure that it works)
But all of the increase has been in less-serious events, whereas more deadly events are few and declining. The "rise" is due to technology and the global interconnectedness that allows much better reporting of ever-small events wherever they take place.
This is clear because the increase is seen in all categories of disasters measured — not only weather disasters but also geophysical disasters like volcanoes and earthquakes, and technological disasters like train de-railings. Not even radical climate activists claim that climate change is causing more trains to de-rail or more volcanoes to explode.
https://www.thetelegraph.com/opinion/article/why-truth-weather-disasters-matters-bjorn-18806809.php
Well, yes - it is emotional to talk about people brutally transferred from life to death, isn't it? ... but hey, exactly this is happening while our climate dinos try to pull the wool over our eyes and argue until the cows come home:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/30/hurricane-helene-deaths-damage
More than 100 people died just in the last couple of days in the latest US hurricane ... and they are still counting the dead.
But yes, lets not focus on this individual event - I am sure somebody mentions soon that we always had hurricanes.
Humans messed up the weather across the globe - not just in in the country with the most boring weather ever (the UK) and in the Amazon rain forest, which we turn into a desert:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/26/britain-tropical-rain-parched-amazon-new-norms-messed-up-climate
The good thing is - as soon as we set new standards, these problems are not any more extraordinary ... so, sure - nothing to see here for the dinos.
You do realise that (way) less people than ever are losing their lives to weather events? And that 9-10 times more people succumb to cold than to heat?
I am not even sure what point you are arguing, it seems like some sort of strawman based on a deep belief?
p.s. apologies to the other posters for inadvertently ruining the light hearted tone of this thread, some of those early posts were most amusing! Come back!
Quote from: Popeye on Oct 01, 2024, 10:30 AMYou do realise that (way) less people than ever are losing their lives to weather events? And that 9-10 times more people succumb to cold than to heat?
I am not even sure what point you are arguing, it seems like some sort of strawman based on a deep belief?
Unless you are a strawman I am sure you realise that the number of people killed directly in adverse weather events is quite useless to measure the impact of climate change?
Sure - some people die from storms, floodings and similar events. Whether this number goes up or down does not matter for the big climate change picture, particularly with emergency services generally improving.
What does matter is that climate change results in reduced harvests - and for some people (except strawmen) food is important.
What does matter is that climate change results in huge migration across the globe - huge areas turn less fertile or turn into desserts and if people can't get food at home they go somewhere else - which will results in huge conflicts and wars all across the globe. Anybody but a strawman would have noticed already the beginnings. Ever heard about migration crisis - in the US or in Europe or in Australia? That's so far only the first trickle of the migration tsunami started by climate change.
What does matter is that climate change will render a lot of expensive infrastructure useless (e.g. close to sea level) - and the money nations need to spend to move / replace just this infrastructure can't be used for otherwise much more important purposes.
You are talking about a strawman. I recon you have experience with that subject - for some funny reason it appears you think like a strawman and you act like a strawman. Maybe the saying with the duck is applicable :) ?
Quote from: Popeye on Oct 01, 2024, 10:30 AMI am not even sure what point you are arguing, it seems like some sort of strawman based on a deep belief?
It's not worth the effort engaging.
I agree with your earlier point that Ian Wishart ripped NIWA a new one when he showed the flaw in their support of media statements stating Cyclone Gabrielle was a 1 in 100 year event - by using their own data against them! Ah the delicious irony. Increased population and increased media reporting result in a greater reporting of any and all events nowadays. Follow the money - there is the answer to this supposed 'global warming' I mean 'climate crisis'.
With 2024 going into the fourth quarter the question is just will it beat 2023's records?
Just to remember - 2023 was the warmest year in the last 100.000 years - and the impact on humans is getting harder and harder to overlook (well, unless for dinos, of course):
"Over the past 15 years, over 376 million people around the world have been forcibly displaced by floods, windstorms, earthquakes, or droughts. The projection is even more staggering. By 2050, the forecast is that 1.2 billion people will become climate refugees, most of them from the countries with the least ability to deal with the fallout from climate change."
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/broken-climate-records-2023-environment/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwgfm3BhBeEiwAFfxrG0KEDDxwdCMTgm6zuqlXR6_08kyaxRjccIjEStwoZHuucjQF8U1GnBoClIcQAvD_BwE
How lucky we are to have the climate dinos telling us that climate change is a non event.
I recon they should make sure the people in Otago get their message instead of complaining:
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/snow-roads-more-heavy-rain-come
Climate dinos for president ...
This is what I tell anyone who cannot comprehend human impacts on the planet:
Lock yourself in your garage with all the windows and doors closed, start you car. How long until the atmosphere in the garage changes and becomes toxic? Now imagine billions of cars and planes emitting those same gases. Where do those emissions go? Just magically disappear? Earth is a finite place.
Humans have a long track record of fucking the planet - here are a few examples:
- extintion of species - example passenger pigeon
- rivers so polluted they started on fire - this led to creation of the EPA in the US. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/cuyahoga-river-caught-fire-least-dozen-times-no-one-cared-until-1969-180972444/- acid rain
- hole in the ozone
If you do not think humans are having negative effects on the climate you have your head in the sand.