ANZ sprinting out of the gates ..... bit of a trade here ,,, cant be sustained or can it?
The last deal cant have been that good in AUS or is it the new scheme of arrangement that frees the company up and will other banks soon follow.
what are the regulatory framework implications and could it allow NZ to be spun off more easily.
After all the CAP T1 proposed by the RBNZ must look punitive.
waiting for sun corp CEO to come on and Waz Lyrical..
suncorp thinks it can keep up the DIV under ANZ ownership...
Starting to believe that the state of NZ transaction management systems are in a negligent state and that the bodies tasked with creating standards for them are failing to create any standards at all.
Hellen Dervans paper on banking insurance while it did not state any mathmatical models her paper has given momentum to the process where by an investigation and Royal commission should be started into the state of the transaction processing systems of the banking system and stock broking and finance companies.
With huge vol of transctions flowing through the back end databases and no way to identify the transactions and verify them the system is wide open to systemic failure.
This is the thesis of Helen Dervans prize winning macro prodential paper that the law society of australia awarded her.
We need to look no farther than the fact your cant verify a transaction in your bank account nor can you reconcile a transaction ledger from a broking site to realise once you reach a certain level of transaction investing you need to create your own verification offline solutions.
And that is where believe it or not block chain technologies provide model for proof of work.
Not say that block chain will be that tecnology but you as the vulnerable retail investor really cant trust your financial and legal advisors to protect your money.
And that is the sad state of the so called professionals and this Hellen Dervan is stating and they even gave her a prize for it.
The legal and financial advisory professionals are basically charging you large fees for nothing much.
Notice in your OMC accounts you cant verify the transactions? a Decade ago under ANZ or the orginal owner the stock market order no at least was on the transactions but no transaction Identification or GUIDS.
Notice your receipts and deposits have no idenitifaction information in the transaction. NO IDENTIFICATION. What are the IT people thinking and why arnt the Accounting Society and FMA jumping on transaction verification or is it that AML is just a way of them making more money from you the investor.
You decide if your professionala are indeed professionals.
"CDO's are slowing in the states which indicates some areas of the high yield markets are under stress ."
accordig to comentators but not tending towards a GFC scale...
thank goddness for that... here hoping...The market at the moment is based on HOPE ?
Credit crisis...as always...
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/13/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
Big GOVT bond offer this week of 3 Billion...
interesting to watch.. and of course Interest.co.nz
More scares in Banking and maybe also more crypto trouble to come.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/first-republic-leads-regional-bank-rout-as-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-raises-fears-about-bond-losses.html
The balance sheet is Treasurys which means no contagion.
However a lot of people will be waiting for deposit insurance to kick in.
https://www.usbank.com/bank-accounts/fdic-deposit-insurance-coverage.html
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 11, 2023, 06:46 AMHowever a lot of people will be waiting for deposit insurance to kick in.
As you say people will be waiting for deposit insurance to kick but it has a cap of US$250k. I wonder how many start ups or tech companies have their funds with SVB....? Insurance won't help them - one hopes start ups had credit risk mitigation strategies and did not put all their funds in the one bank. It sounds like there were massive inflows into other banks as deposits fled SVB.
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/407458
Extract from 28/02/2023 announcement Heartland Bank Limited (Heartland Bank) is considering making an offer of up to $75 million (with the right to accept oversubscriptions of up to an additional $50 million at Heartland Bank's discretion) of unsecured subordinated notes (Notes) to New Zealand investors and certain overseas institutional investors.
We've heard nothing further about this since then but I can't help myself wondering what the demand would be for this proposed new issue at this point in time?
Interesting article https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/tailwinds-are-all-blown-out-for-australias-big-four-banks-says-morgan?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+11+March+2023
Yes very interesting what shakes out in markets when interest rate rise...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management
perhaps rereading "More money than God".. one of the best reads on the GFC.
the fall out is often bigger than it looks and spreads.
Here we go the lock ups and the crypto's
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/11/crypto-firm-circle-reveals-3point3-bln-exposure-to-silicon-valley-bank.html
Quote from: Basil on Mar 11, 2023, 12:24 PMInteresting article https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/tailwinds-are-all-blown-out-for-australias-big-four-banks-says-morgan?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+11+March+2023
Yes, read that. I think to be expected; these banks have sort traded in a certain (wide) range for the past 20 odd years (good for trading or short to medium term investments) and with the current financial and economic status the world endures, tailwinds will dwindle for the time being.
But I suspect this was 'researched'/ written (although published Saturday) before taking into the account what is happening right now with Silvergate and more specifically Silicon Valley Bank.
Perhaps nervous times for those invested in banking sticks, at least for the short term.
yes the banks are back to being a trade but there will be some number crunching required for the sun corp deal and the nature of the new entity for ANZ.
west pac has collapsed into a total .....
fall out from SVB also effects rock labs it appears in this morning news...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/rocket-lab-says-it-has-us38m-with-failed-silicon-valley-bank/G4VLALMYAJAHXA3QNSD5OCRN3Y/
To big to fail... bail out back stop for deposits...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
Looks like a whole lot more work needs to be done in banking regulation and maybe the limits of the QE model have been reached....
OOPS...
10 Yr just plunged off the cliff...
fed just broke something and probably realised there are other ledgers and loan books out there that are unaudited and risk assessed...
rating agencies...
and here we are again...
it wont be as big of course but do we know where all the dead bodies are ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhfvtOSd5fU
Some bargains turning up? NAY.. stay away from the regionals
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/first-republic-drops-bank-stocks-decline.html
Gundlach saying QE is back. FED will have to expand balance sheet and we now know all deposits are covered... ALL
and that means moral hazard is BACK baby its BACK!!!
the FED's inflation fight is now between a printing press and a paper forest....
Trading is back in business baby...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y-_WGjZgD8
and we were all musing about LTCM not a week ago ...
every time the FED raises rates it cracks the market well at least since the later 90's...
count that on one hand or less...
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/13/business/svb-employees-angry-at-ceo/index.html
that the end of the fast rate hikes then...
I guess we will follow the USA.
Yahoo Finance headlines.
"Bank stocks rally in sharp reversal from previous session"
May have been a bit like a Briscoes' one day sale.?
Except that regional banks in the US as measured by the index of same were down ~ 25% before that rally.
Ord Minnett notes two distinct differences between SVB and Australian banks:
SVB customers are concentrated towards concentrated and lumpy deposits whereas household deposits make up 40% to 50% of deposits across major Australia banks
SVB had a large percentage of their assets held in investment securities, which were out of the money, whereas Australian banks primarily invest in mortgages and corporate debt
"We do not believe the conditions that allowed a run to happen on SVB exist for Australian banks," the report said.
Guess the same goes for NZ Banks.
Winner69 did point out NZ Banks match borrowings with lending .
The US crisis has nothing to do with who their customers were or what their deposits were - this one is a straight up old school problem of bank liquidity in the face of a bank run. SVB (and most banks) have two types of securities - those Available For Sale (usually hedged to manage short term risk) and Held To Maturity (usually not hedged because the bank expects to be paid back at par). In the face of a bank run, all the Available For Sale assets can be liquidated, but if they are insufficient, then the Held To Maturity assets need to be sold off, and its these long duration assets that are now well out of the money due to high interest rates, so obviously in order to sell them they will need to take substantial losses.
So the question to ask is do Aus/NZ banks have a lot of Available For Sale liquid assets and not so much long duration assets, and what are the chances of a bank run with depositors taking their money out? Are mortgages and corporate loans short term assets or long term ones? Are they hedged or unhedged?
SVB faced a bank run because all their customers were highly interconnected through relationships with their funding partners and each other, via chat rooms and other tech platforms, so when a couple of VCs told their companies to get their money out, they all told each other, and literally within minutes half of Silicon Valley was trying to withdraw money. Social media makes something like a bank run on any bank possible because a rumour can spread like wildfire within a very short amount of time. Unfortunately for NZ though, as we are a complete backwater techwise, we don't have real time bank processing so any attempt to get your money out will be unsuccessful. Then again, maybe that might suddenly be a useful feature not a bug lol
On another note, this problem doesnt just apply to banks. It also applies to things like pension funds. If everyone suddenly decides they want their retirement savings out, and there is a run on a fund, the same thing will occur, and probably worse as pension funds most definitely have a lot of long duration assets. Most of the US ones are already underfunded as well. Not to mention their unlisted/private assets where market value is very opaque. I have a funny feeling the real credit crisis that constitutes a "Lehman moment" will be a pension fund not a bank.
And now that 5% term deposits at a bank are Govt guaranteed for infinity, what is stopping pensioners pulling their retirement funds out of their pension fund and putting it in the bank. Its the safest place to be. My Dad did it in NZ - only need for this idea to catch on and its game over.
Insider trader under scrutiny next for SVB...
looks like they fixed very little after the GFC.
Aussi royal commission of inquiry over the banking has opened doors on what was standard operating practise in the banking system and that has made it clear that bank profits on the ASX have problematic for sometime.
If Credit Suisse goes as has been said here before than any inflation fighting moves are to slow down and is that good for retail and COMP Props?
Sure should put a floor under the COMP Props.
And is there going to be more ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/first-republic-rescue-pitch-help-now-or-pay-more-later-when-it-fails.html
""Time, by the way, is not the bank's friend," analyst Don Bilson wrote Tuesday. "If anything, last night's discouraging update will make it even harder for First Republic to keep what it has."
lets rewind a bit ... memory lane ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management
its trouble in the USA ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPhWR4d3FJQ
ANZ 81 cents AUS DIVIDEND!!!!!!!!!
this is the big news of the day people...
ANZ 81 cents AUS DIVIDEND!!!!!!!!!
this is the big news of the day people...
did we say this already !!!
.... on the streets ... on the streets
look up ... look up....
pressure still on in the US for regionals and the Cryptos finally had a bad few days....
the worlds markets for bank share are wild choppy seas.
... pac west down 22 today... its only a small bank and its got balance sheet capital that covers its deposits..
banking system deposits over all down 5 percent... and thats bigger than the fed expected...
but over all deposits in the US are higher then in 2008...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/11/pacwest-shares-tumble-20percent-after-regional-bank-says-deposits-fell-9point5percent-last-week.html
lots of bank mergers likely in the US?
you would not want to be invested heavy in US banks...
Andrew Ross Sorkin has just stated that the idea of Bank deposit insurance is now dead on arrival and if so... it means that papers submitted by Prudential experts like H Dervan of AUT Auckland are now questionable...
Least of all the complete lack of quantitative probability studies in the papers being submited by the likes of these experts..
Everyone reads papers release by this local cabal of expert Ex Pats that have landed back in NZ from the UK and now run the system..
one could say its better to have something at the bottom of the clif rather than nothing.
Kiwi's cant yet moving money overnight right? actually if there are another 2 rates hikes cause of the Boomaroo budget TD rates could go even higher..
ANZ chairmans address... just waiting on Sun Corp.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ANZ/414063/397726.pdf
Market going no where according the CNBC pundits ....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/strategist-david-roche-well-avoid-a-global-recession-central-banks-will-change-the-goalposts.html
US bank stocks rally 17 P....
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 29, 2023, 09:02 AMUS bank stocks rally 17 P....
....and with the banks, certain REITS went along for the ride. If the banks are happy so are (certain) REITS. How long will the happiness last though, with all the indications of some sort of an economic downturn/ recession?
And is there to be some positiveness in our banking/ Property/ RV stocks?
The outlook next 24 months is pressure on the earning from increased interest costs of Refin of US balance sheets.
Its the percentage of SP500 balance sheets that require refi at higher interest rates that was discussed recently on CNBC and the data was displayed by the young australian presenter.
Havnt got the numbers on hand... its that interest rate pressures on refinancing balance sheets that seems to be the next calculations.
US SP 5 heading to 5000? but really can earning support this? paying at 20 P/E
else come this october or next there will be some big pull backs..
Not strictly a bank but rather has bankings elements to it, and also got caught up in the 'flash' banking crisis earlier in the year. No real change in the share price in the 24 hours since the announcement. And in actual fact not much difference to what some other banks are doing. Nevertheless;
Charles Schwab cutting jobs, sees cost savings of $500 million
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86kyN6llsrw
[/quote]
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Aug 23, 2023, 12:46 AMNot strictly a bank but rather has bankings elements to it, and also got caught up in the 'flash' banking crisis earlier in the year. No real change in the share price in the 24 hours since the announcement. And in actual fact not much difference to what some other banks are doing. Nevertheless;
Charles Schwab cutting jobs, sees cost savings of $500 million
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86kyN6llsrw
Oh dear....I stand corrected....at the time of writing, an hour in, SCHW has dropped around 3.5%.
Banks not popular today. All the main banks down between 1 and 2%.
S&P Global Ratings lowered its ratings for group of banks that are 'battling' higher funding costs while deposits are flowing out.
Good cause we have some off market transfers to do leaving private companies to trade them and personal accounts to get the dividends.
Other word moving some shares out of private companies and transferring them to owners personal accounts.
The Banks in the US have taken a betting and the FED has had to prop them up like in the GFC ...
but this fund well...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/04/berkshire-hathaway-brk-earnings-q3-2023.html
WBC increases profit and DIV, Share Buy Back...
West Pac Aus was done over in the Aus royal commission and just shows the types of people that get to the top of some banks...
This is where the money is now in banking...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301006837/how-to-make-it-as-a-mortgage-adviser
Tail of two country's .... NZ outlook from ANZ chief says not so great ....
last one turn the lights out when you all move to AUSSI...
but it a bit hotter over there ... northern european summers are just nicer ... air fares coming down acrioss the ditch.. just need those euro flight to come down a bit in business class....
CNBC they wanted an even bigger DIV... therefore the market SOL it just like WBC the other day...
Suncorp not wraped up yet and adds what ? to bottom line...
Market being a bit harsh in this inflation age...
Anyone noticed that there are 3 little words in these articles "Global bankng crisis" ....
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/business/sergio-ermotti-ubs-risktakers/index.html
cant happen ever again right?
Morningstar pretty positive on the banks today.
https://www.morningstar.com.au/insights/stocks/245135/opportunities-remain-in-banking-shares
Maybe they're a bit late to the party? Both ANZ and WBC have really pushed on recently - have they got more to go or is it time to take a profit?
ANZ and WBC still on very cheap metrics.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/which-bank-what-the-brokers-love-and-hate-in-2024
Another report on all the Aussie banks today. ANZ getting an especial push:
"Both Goldman Sachs and Morningstar concur that in the big four, ANZ (ASX: ANZ) is a BUY. This is also reflected by Market Index's broker consensus tool.
Goldman Sachs views further upsides to ANZ and anticipates improving profitability in the institutional business. It is trading at a discount to peers, at $26.55/share.
Tyndall's Brad Potter also recently nominated ANZ as a banking pick for similar reasons.
"ANZ is differentiated from the other Big Four banks as it is underweight retail and has a large institutional bank with strong operating momentum. This is driven, in part, by a growing transaction banking business and a consistently performing trading markets business," Potter said."
WBC not pushed quite as much.
"When it comes to Australia's oldest bank, Market Index's broker consensus tool tips Westpac (ASX: WBC) as a SELL. Morningstar disagrees, viewing it as undervalued and with strong potential.
"We think the share price overlooks the potential for the bank to lower its cost/income ratio and improve ROE, relative to peers," wrote Zaia and Tan.
It's a view shared by Macquarie which recently upgraded Westpac to an 'OUTPERFORM' rating."
ANZ been a good ride this last 6 months.
WBC went through that total melt down with the Royal Commission..
It been a restructure case ever since.
Lot less risk buying ANZ in a clear uptrend than HGH in a sustained downtrend.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 25, 2024, 02:10 PMLot less risk buying ANZ in a clear uptrend than HGH in a sustained downtrend.
That Barrimundi outfit has a decent holding in a few Oz banks
US regional Banks ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/us-regional-banking-shares-tumble-for-second-straight-day.html
BB update for WBC continues ...
wonder how far they have to go...
Flight to 10 year in the states means is there a lot more to go in the banks in the US?
will the property market melt down spill over in the china banks or are the reserves enough to prop up the shakey houses....
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/asia-markets.html
talk of the leadership limiting coverage of the china markets on the internet across the population.
Seems that no-one talks about ANZ / WBC shares?
Newbie here with a small amount in both ANZ up 23%, WBC up 18.5%.
What are peoples thoughts on these? Nobody seems particularly interested - is there something I am missing?
Should I dump and run with the little bit of profit & put it somewhere else?
NB I'm not a trader, I'm slowly getting down to a small portfolio that I am happy with leaving relatively as is.
Made some good calls along the way, and some BAD (The Warehouse was painful). Main interest is to whether these are a good long term option or not?
Quote from: SmallSteps on Feb 16, 2024, 01:55 PMSeems that no-one talks about ANZ / WBC shares?
Newbie here with a small amount in both ANZ up 23%, WBC up 18.5%.
What are peoples thoughts on these? Nobody seems particularly interested - is there something I am missing?
Should I dump and run with the little bit of profit & put it somewhere else?
NB I'm not a trader, I'm slowly getting down to a small portfolio that I am happy with leaving relatively as is.
Made some good calls along the way, and some BAD (The Warehouse was painful). Main interest is to whether these are a good long term option or not?
So hard to predict the future - and I met so far nobody who could get it right (other than by accident).
However - if you look (just as an example) at ANZ. They have (at current SP) a long term P/E of 13.6 (and EPS actually rather consistent over the years), no material growth over the last 10 years and no growth I can see coming. They make every year a bit over $ 2 EPS (apart from really bad years, then it is less) and pay something like 5.x % dividend yield (hardly imputed). Sure - better than putting the money under the mattress, but riskier as government bonds. Wait for the next bad year ... and your income will be less.
And if you look for SP appreciation, I would say the chance for further significant upwards gains is lower than the risks for the next down cycle to start.
But hey - nobody can predict where hype might push the banks before that - hype can do amazing things to the prices of securities - just think at the crypto delusion.
So - I'd say banks can be a great long term option (assuming they don't do a Lehmans's Brothers on you), but not necessarily if you buy the shares closer to the peak than to the trough.
That's where I would see them, but hey - my crystal ball is cloudy as well.
sun corp deal may add some extra coins in the pot...
ANZ is restructing its self and may be able to transform into a financial service provider with its new group entity.
What that give it ins relation to the regulator who knows without a lot of reading and access to australian banking experts..
WBC has a shocking record including the Enquiry that decimated the market confidence in the management of the company..
WBC has now reached $26 for the fourth time since 2017, each previous time it's fallen back into the low $20s.
ANZ's in an even stronger uptrend and on good volume too.
However, most broker forecasts are below the current price of both WBC and ANZ according to tradingview.
Both look fully valued to me and I wouldn't be a buyer at these prices but would I sell???.
sell WBC and if you think ANZ margins are going to be hit... ANZ might be a hold and accumulate if it bangs down to 23 again ..
ASB margain took a hit... DIC SNOP might have some big models...
the problems for banks is that they are old technology ...
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 19, 2024, 02:44 PMsell WBC and if you think ANZ margins are going to be hit... ANZ might be a hold and accumulate if it bangs down to 23 again ..
ASB margain took a hit... DIC SNOP might have some big models...
the problems for banks is that they are old technology ...
the problems for banks is that they are old technologyAre they? and if yes, where is the problem?
Humans are much older technology - and banks solve some of their problems.
I wouldn't see banking as growth industry, but as any other service industry humans need, banking will do just fine. Same as foodproducers and processors (like farmers, bakers, butchers, cooks, ...), transport providers or e.g entertainers.
Sure - the way the service is provided might change, but the need for safe money storage and transfer, for loans and savings will stay around.
wbc ..
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WBC/426417/412828.pdf
Anz annoucement .. capital notes.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ANZ/426185/412542.pdf
There is a chance banks will upgrade their technology stacks provide a major upgrade technology service API's for customers and a modern secure service.
At the present there isnt even a PROXY id transaction standard...
The RBNZ doesnt know what that is as it busy with trees...
Just as an aside, UK domestic banks are selling at tiny P/Es compared to ours (well not really ours of course but the ones our cussies let us keep our cash in) . National Westminster (NWB) for instance on a 4.7 p/e . doing quite well and paying 6.75%.
No one wants to buy UK shares , not even their own institutions who have reduced UK share exposure from 50% some years ago to less then 5%. The $2 shop of the world stock markets.
WBC quarterly results gone down well - up 5% on big volume. ANZ down though.
topping out and a period of forming a new base ?
might take a few years for the new band to work in....
Is the T1 capital ratio imposed on banks operating in NZ now going to come back to haunt the RBNZ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/how-the-rbnz-is-losing-the-global-inflation-race-markets-with-madison/6Y6SXBDHUNAZFLQKY4M52QVAKM/
ANZ appears to have topped out on the annoucement last week ... suncorp.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ANZ/426502/412960.pdf
Will we see if the next QTR GDP is negative a panic at the RBNZ to cut ? how many QTR of recession have there been lately .. lost count... and they declare them later on ... like we thought we have some green growth shoots... but no ... sorry ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350196029/we-got-one-totally-wrong-anz-changes-view-rate-rise
and what is the total debt anyway ... what a send off ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labours-worst-week-highlights-its-existential-crisis-political-round-up/X5ZFOQ53UJAZXPWZVKJ4ETBTVY/
Really over 24 months before rates come down below 4?
2 rate cuts 25 by november ... and what 25 there after?
lets see what actually happens..
AUS GDP steady and Aussie dollar softer but not by much...
good news for AUS retail and the banks ...
Its not a TR unlike NZ...
which might be said to be a self inflicted TKO...for the KIWI that is not the KANGA....
Time to join the AUS dollar and dumo the kiwi and start the merge ...
yup time for the Kiwi to jumo in the Kanga pouch and bound along together...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9_b9X2EA3E
Bit of a nice bounce today for ANZ...
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ANZ/announcements
Smartshares ETF 'ASF' follows the Australian financial institutions. SP reached an all time high today:
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASF.NZ?.tsrc=fin-srch
Strong performance from the banks this weeks. ANy bounces down to the mid 20's could be a good point to reenter and buy some MORE!!!
ANZ has put in a good few months for holders and the scene is now set for suncorp to shine ....
Thre old technology platforms used by banks surely needs a renewal. The lack of digital transaction ID and Cypher standards will continue to make the banking systems not fit for purpose.
Yes an ID tranasaction and cypher standard is difficult but work on this should have started decades ago... about 30 years ago at least.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-first-candidate-david-wilson-loses-200k-in-scam-bank-confirms-mule-account-legitimate-in-phone-recording/LDU4PNNNBREPPC5PRGED4ACSDI/
Notice that your OMC accounts at Jardens have not identification transaction ID;s either. You cant do an automatic or manual cross reference match between your buy , sell and your caah deposits and receipts.
In other words the OMC accounts are negligent.
Your living in an economy where bankers, laywers, accountants, Politicians and the reserve bank have left you exposed at many points to fraud.
You cant buy yourself a secure bank account instead your exposed.
nice chart for ANZ AUS...
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 28, 2024, 01:19 PMnice chart for ANZ AUS...
Well, yes - nice for the people holding it since the recent lows in 2022 and 2020 and planning to sell. Does this augur well as well for people who are considering to buy now? I am not so sure.
Historically seen is banking a cyclical industry, and ANZ is currently much closer to its historic peaks than to its historic troughs.
Yes if it drops back to the low 20's its a possible top up.... topping out yup... be interesting to see if it chugs along up here for a while...
Depends on those NIM's one supposes..
Always good to read more abouts banks and banking systems...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_crises
Boring reading also ...
History of Australia and New Zealand Bank.
Published LongMans 1961.
"The UK has already introduced confirmation of payment technology, since credited with drastically reducing scam losses.
British banks have also been forced to refund customers who lose money in authorised payment fraud."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/banks-want-government-support-for-anti-scam-centre-after-crims-pilfer-millions-from-kiwi-victims/AOUHMBDL7BAWFICWQFV7JORTXY/
Going to be very interesting to see how the banks perform in the next 12 months...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/powell-cites-lack-of-progress-this-year-in-reaching-feds-inflation-goal.html
A drop!!
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/127378/challenger-bank-sbs-jumps-mortgage-market-big-splash-aiming-snare-outsized
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/lending-and-monetary
people still spending... no big drops last 12 months.
Do you think they got more than an EXCEL worksheet covering this ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reserve-bank-wants-banks-to-keep-a-closer-eye-on-the-insurability-of-properties-it-lends-against/Y54R2UUOCVDRHPZ2GJQCPV4GGE/
Deep water Horizon on 2... "We good to go Mr Jimmy"
ANZ out with reducted profit ... not much though... SP will pull back a bit for a while...
made CNBC Asia...
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ANZ/announcements
bit of a BB coming .... 2 billion ...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 07, 2024, 12:07 PMANZ out with reducted profit ... not much though... SP will pull back a bit for a while...
made CNBC Asia...
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ANZ/announcements
bit of a BB coming .... 2 billion ...
Hey waltz ...ANZ CASH PROFIT WAS
UP
WHAT!!!
well they have interview after interview ... too busy with scones and cream to check anything yet...
is that good winner()?
should have been over weight on this one ...from 22 ... can we have another global crisis please ... havnt got enought of this one...
just wait here is a recession coming when both countries .. im mean AUSNZ ... we are joining soon arnt we?
what recession and the cash is up ... what on earth is going on ... nothing make any sense... TRA down HLG up, down cant make its mind up ... everything is upside down...
WBC nearly back to those heady heights before the royal commission that make the SKY court cases look small time...
Some numbers , notice the down bits ... just to many charts for even AI to make sense of ....
Good read on early banking in AUS is ... we have a copy..
original history of ANZ BANK on the shelves...
Australia and New Zealand Bank.. SJ Butlin... 1828 - 1951. Published 1961.
Please note this is NOT AI assisted in Edge or Chrome.
Smartshares ASF Australian bank fund has reached an all time high today:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASF.NZ/
MONEY MONEY MONEY --- in SWEDISH and sounds a lot better than the plain old ENGLISH versions..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-0nFtnlY7k
Now they just need standards for transaction recording for financial institutions ... IE brokers...mortages , loans ect...
https://www.interest.co.nz/technology/127953/open-banking-threatening-finally-gather-some-pace-new-zealand-worldline-online
ANZ bank profits up for quarter... https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/127986/new-zealands-biggest-bank-produces-eye-watering-quarterly-profit
"ANZ, the country's biggest bank booked a $642.3 million profit after tax in the March quarter, according to the latest update of the Reserve Bank's Bank Financial Strength Dashboard.
That's the most the bank has made in a quarter at least since the dashboard was introduced six years ago, and is almost certainly its most profitable quarter ever.
Before tax ANZ's March quarter profit weighed in at $899.5 million, just shy of $10 million per day.
The March after tax figure compares to $491.2 million in the March 2023 quarter, $412.5 million in the December 2023 quarter, and the previous high of $620 million in the June 2022 quarter.
So why was ANZ's March 2024 quarterly profit so high? A big trading and hedging gain, and miniscule impaired asset expense certainly helped."
More rural news ..
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/128000/three-two-down-terms-whether-five-major-rural-lenders-are-growing-or-shrinking
debt to GDP is at its highest point since ...https://fortune.com/2024/04/28/global-debt-crisis-world-gdp-napoleonic-wars-us-debt-bond-yields/
They are saying SOFT landing in the US ....
But has NZ already landed and the RNBZ needs like many institutions in NZ to be privatised and closed down...
Surely they are panicing or soon will be as they imposed their 17 percent (near enough) capital ratios that will force banks to hold huge amounts of T1 capital ... and Dervan wants more insurance ... right ...
how can you possible run moentary policy on data that is out of date...
Surely they need a gaint AI model that can simulate an economy ... HUGE AI model ... on a really BIG HIVE ...
Doctor Allan Cat back n the 1980-'s at dinners parties (all the rage in thos days) used to tell me as a young eager accounting software clerk they had a computer model of the economy at Auckland university...
RBNZ must be using the same one ...
but if they had been using this they might be on top of data ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simula
Europe ... those nordics ... cant beat them ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/11/cpi-inflation-report-june-2024.html
could be the bargains here if there is a run on the banks... another QTR link that one and the RBNZ will have to open the overnight window for the banks for cash to keep the tills running...
Smartshares ASF (Oz banks) closed above $10 earlier this month for the first time.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASF.NZ/
yup the buy backs for ANZ and WBC rewarded holders .....
DISC: holding ANZ
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/financial-stability-reports/2023/nov-2023/fsr-nov-23-box-c.pdf
bets on went a rate move ...
November?
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/128991/anz-cuts-floating-fixed-home-loan-rates-business-base-rates-and-some-term
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129002/global-capital-markets-are-truly-enormous-gigantic-ocean-capital-washes-over-us-and
sta sta sta stag stagflation...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/10/jamie-dimon-says-the-worst-outcome-is-stagflation-a-scenario-hes-not-taking-off-the-table.html
is the rbnz making excess profits at your expense...
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/130137/reserve-bank-pay-597-million-dividend-governor-adrian-orr-gets-pay-cut-staff-numbers
could the RBNZ be automated?
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 09, 2024, 10:40 AMis the rbnz making excess profits at your expense...
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/130137/reserve-bank-pay-597-million-dividend-governor-adrian-orr-gets-pay-cut-staff-numbers
could the RBNZ be automated?
Nice - this could pay for the Patience and two more boats to sink plus the Dunedin hospital ... or maybe we could sink less boats and buy Nicolas Toyotas to avoid the next Cooks Strait Ferry disaster?
Can we automate the RBNZ? Probably, but then we wouldn't have a scapegoat anymore, wouldn't we?
Bad move. We need a scape goat.
no chairman save nearly 10 million over ten years ...
rest of board saves ....
whole department saves ...
then automate the IRD....
privatise schools ,hospitals , ect ..
increase auditor generals office ...
all government department except police and courts and defense are gone by lunch time...
save a fortune and the kiwi dollar could beat the dixie...
whistling Dixie ...
ok china reserve bank now in panic... no bazooka big enough ...
RNBZ conflicted as to what they will do next 75?
because if they do its a no admission panic ... we ... stuffed up... nothing to see here...
government hoping they wont have to cut cut cut ...
but really ? https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/130184/crown-financial-statements-reported-129-billion-annual-deficit-20232024
but is GDP being held up by government spending and not the real economy.
shes a blow out ....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-deficit-widens-by-more-than-expected-partially-thanks-to-health-nz-and-higher-acc-claims-costs/CHBBOCW3HVBOLJGGCHGSIJ6JVY/
but whose counting ...
ANZ supporting some open banking API's .. third party
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/441588/attachment/431526/441588-431526.pdf
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 08, 2024, 12:18 PMANZ supporting some open banking API's .. third party
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/441588/attachment/431526/441588-431526.pdf
Hmm - currently not holding, i.e not too keen to dive too deep into their numbers, but looks like clever presentation. Find a year somewhere in the past where things have been still worse than the year you are presenting, and calculate the CAGR from that point. Just funny that they change the start year based on the specific parameter they are looking at. But I am sure, there are a good reasons for that.
Otherwise - ok-ish dividend yield (hardly imputed in NZ), but share looks for their earnings anyway somewhat overvalued (forward PE is 14.5, 10 year backwards PE is 14) . Earnings CAGR over the last 10 years was negative 1.5%, but for some reason they don't present this number in their report. Here is wondering :);
What can I say ... OK-ish dividend earner, though not particularly suited for NZ tax payers (loosing all these Australian franking credits) - and the share price looks at the moment a bit dear anyway.
well they ARE dear .....
and your AVE cost would if you owned likely to be a lot lower yes...
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 09, 2024, 09:23 PMwell they ARE dear .....
and your AVE cost would if you owned likely to be a lot lower yes...
True ... but doesn't it make more sense to invest based on future earnings perspective starting in the present rather than on past performance?
And don't misunderstand me - I tend to hold ANZ from time to time, I just prefer to buy them when they are low (not now) and sell them high.
Genau genommen .....
which may not be contextually correct...
but every 10 years the banks hit a high and one could also just wait
after all .... if you have been in markets long enough some sectors connected to the money supply might be best left as accumulators ...
its like investing in property without the hassles..
75 not likely ...
that would be saying well... we got it wrong....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/75-point-ocr-cut-needed-to-aid-economy-stuck-in-rut-fund-manager-says/4TZ2A25PFVAUFOU3JMHTM3OUIU/
QuoteLike a dog with a bone, investment manager Greg Smith of Devon Funds refuses to give up on a call for a jumbo-sized cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's last meeting of the year, due to take place in a couple of weeks.
Loved this bit...he's taking a "dogged" approach lol
I actually think the economy needs a 100 bps cut to get moving again.
yes well that Devon might be barking at shadows ....
heres hoping but not expecting anything other than 50 ...
Aussie bank stocks are on a tear. Smartshares ASF which tracks the Aussie banks reached an all time high yesterday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASF.NZ/
Which overseas owners will be blamed for this ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/131403/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-current-account-deficit-now-running-27-bln-annum-increasingly
BASEL some number of the other for banks is now off the table...
its BANK BABY BANK... share buy backs coming ... except in NZ where high levels of capital T1 reserves will continue to stifle lending to business and others...
how on earth are banks making super profits when there capital T1's are high...
maybe they are just investing in short term Bonds and making money on the currency ... Buy T's and as the Kiwi goes south cash in the profits...
tax relief for companies is on the table according to the NZherald today..
and that means everyshare holder on the NZX gets that benefits including the banks...
has National finally woken up that its the economy stupid and wellington need to be closed down... AI will one day work... gemini 1.5 to flash 2 is an improvement on the face of it until it falls over...
but one day it will work and then government departments will get productive or will it simply get BIGGER!!!
NZ is at a cross roads ... could the NATS have finally understood what they are supposed to represent....
PROFITS over LOSSES...
and banks need to make profits....
Ok the above post was wrong.. AI does not seem to work at ALL...
Gemini Flash 2.0 starts off well even impressive and then goes into repeat loops if it get overloaded and that does not take long....
In the US consumer protection agency for banking has been sent home....
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 11, 2025, 07:05 AMAI does not seem to work at ALL...
I managed to get AI to give me an incorrect calculation on the average sea level rise if all the ice on Earth melted. Using 2 different methods gave 2 completely different values but the AI was arguing black and white both calculations were correct. Then I found it was using Pi to 5 decimal places on calculations that involved values in the trillions. Even after I asked for greater precision, it still couldn't get it right. Trusty Excel did. By the way, any statements that sea levels will rise in excess of 50m are 100% incorrect.
every single AI we are trying is falling over when you load with lots of class and source...
it can cope with small stuff only.. and its random...
all of them...
off topic:
well its cluade's turn next... great NZ summer out there... dont miss those waves.. or boating conditions...lost in the south pacific...
ocean was brilliant blue today..in the BOP
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/133945/changing-guard-key-us-federal-reserve-function-has-opened-door-us200-bln-relief
AT last .. or rather in a country with massive house price inflation the country is probably over leveraged and unstable but...did T1 ever get to the proposed 16 %...
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/134880/responding-political-pressure-rbnz-citing-new-higher-risk-appetite-lower-bank
will put more money to work in the economy.
Only a matter of time before the country gets a rating down grade..?
and it will effect all of society including the banking sector... though they may weather storm simply milking house holds and business.. like in the movie margin call ... "what ever happen they dont lose money" quote... you will.. they wont...
surely you bough back in the low 20's again right? of course you did.
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/135037/new-zealand-may-find-it-difficult-service-higher-debt-levels-even-though-it
Imagine modelling this... https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/136064/interest-rates-are-key-tool-banks-use-compete-lending-opportunities-and-depositors%E2%80%99
and this is where true multi dimensional technologies in the future could help these businesses...
Are these a Sell up here.. you be the judge... ANZ and WBC.. Ai thinks so...
Higher margin due to NZ banks holding more capital... in other words business is more expensive to do in NZ then in AUS....
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/136055/anz-nz-annual-profit-rises-21-boosted-hedging-gains-impairment-write-backs-and
Anyone stopped to think one of the greatest risks to commercial enterprise is stock management and decimals...
Now in this case its probably not a big deal but for businesses decimals are critical...
Every wonder of your back end is processing your decimal properly.. well probably the public, the FMA, the Government, most people in business management even accountants and legal beagle have no idea why banks still use IBM main frames and then wonder why when there excel models are reviewed not adding up to the stuff on the main frame...
floating point int he evil in the middle and even your most loved business software may not being looking after your decimals they way you might want it if your really knew your floating point chips...