StockTalk

Quarterly newsletters out this morning for the Trinity from this illustrious stable.

Kingfish share price $1.38 vs NAV $1.37 (.5%)
Marlin share price $.90 vs NAV $.79 (13.9%)
Barramundi share price $.71 vs NAV $.65 (8.6%)

Share holder return for Kingfish for the last three months is -5.4% and they under performed the NZX by nearly 1%.  These investments don't make much sense to me?  I guess to be sustaining a share price above the value of your holdings is an achievement in a bear market, especially one in double figures. 

Here's Kingfish Portfolio
LISTED COMPANIES % Holding

Auckland Intl Airport 7.9%
Contact Energy 3.0%
Delegat Group 2.8%
EBOS Group 2.3%
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 15.5%
Freightways 3.3%
Infratil 16.5%
Mainfreight 16.7%
Meridian Energy 1.6%
Port of Tauranga 2.4%
Pushpay Holdings 2.0%
Ryman Healthcare 2.0%
Summerset 9.2%
The a2 Milk Company 5.7%
Vista Group International 3.5%
Equity Total 94.4%
New Zealand dollar cash 5.6%
TOTAL 100.0%

These guys went woke, so I turfed them.

Interesting that Kingfish is at near NAV, while Marlin and Barramundi are still way over. I have never really understood why you would pay so much over NAV for these funds.  Sure, there is a regular 8% "dividend", but this not fed from underlying earnings, but often eats away at capital. Seems a large premium for a quasi annuity stream.

Latest NAV's just out and KFL and BRM closed yesterday right on Net Asset Value.
I recently bought a small stake in each at just under NTA.
Marlin trading at a premium to NTA of 7%.

Fisher Funds currently a bit of a red cloth for me ...

I had one of these birthdays nobody wants to mention ... and am now entitled to withdraw my Kiwi saver savings.

A number of (overseas) fund managers and insurances did send me in timely fashion a friendly letter, congratulated and advised me about he process how to access my funds. Good stuff!

Fisher Funds (holding my Kiwi Saver account) however decided to do nothing. No letter, no email, no response to my request to contact me (using their chat tool). No withdrawal information on their website, and the info in their original prospectus I got when I signed up is outdated (the website has moved ...).

So - I decided to call them and it took me nearly an hour of often quite bad music to wait for a human talking with me. He knew immediately who I was (i.e. their system seems to identify phone numbers, but then he told me that I need to talk with my "responsible" account manager who unfortunately was not around. Bad luck. Should have timed my phone call better.

Ah well, my account manager (I've never knew I had one) actually called me the next day (only 10 minutes later than agreed) and told me after inquiries about my reasons to contact them about the process to withdraw my savings ... start with filling out a nine page long form and get various details confirmed by a JP or similar and put the whole lot into the mail. No, forget the internet. Only snail mail. For withdrawals they need certified originals.

OK - I spent the morning to prepare all the stuff they want and even found a JP to certify. Nice lady, btw. Now I am praying the whole lot arrives safe in Auckland and Fisher Funds internal mail system is better than their chat service ... and in another month or so I might have access to my Kiwi saver money to invest by myself.

Seems like Fisher Funds are very happy to take money from whomever, but very specific if anybody wants them to return this money.

At this stage I don't feel I can recommend using their Kiwi saver services ... but hey, maybe the rest is worse, I wouldn't know.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 26, 2023, 06:29 PMFisher Funds currently a bit of a red cloth for me ...

I had one of these birthdays nobody wants to mention ... and am now entitled to withdraw my Kiwi saver savings.

A number of (overseas) fund managers and insurances did send me in timely fashion a friendly letter, congratulated and advised me about he process how to access my funds. Good stuff!

Fisher Funds (holding my Kiwi Saver account) however decided to do nothing. No letter, no email, no response to my request to contact me (using their chat tool). No withdrawal information on their website, and the info in their original prospectus I got when I signed up is outdated (the website has moved ...).

So - I decided to call them and it took me nearly an hour of often quite bad music to wait for a human talking with me. He knew immediately who I was (i.e. their system seems to identify phone numbers, but then he told me that I need to talk with my "responsible" account manager who unfortunately was not around. Bad luck. Should have timed my phone call better.

Ah well, my account manager (I've never knew I had one) actually called me the next day (only 10 minutes later than agreed) and told me after inquiries about my reasons to contact them about the process to withdraw my savings ... start with filling out a nine page long form and get various details confirmed by a JP or similar and put the whole lot into the mail. No, forget the internet. Only snail mail. For withdrawals they need certified originals.

OK - I spent the morning to prepare all the stuff they want and even found a JP to certify. Nice lady, btw. Now I am praying the whole lot arrives safe in Auckland and Fisher Funds internal mail system is better than their chat service ... and in another month or so I might have access to my Kiwi saver money to invest by myself.

Seems like Fisher Funds are very happy to take money from whomever, but very specific if anybody wants them to return this money.

At this stage I don't feel I can recommend using their Kiwi saver services ... but hey, maybe the rest is worse, I wouldn't know.

That's good information and does not sound good at all. I also have some money with Fishers. Thanks for posting

BP ...I think it's a battle to get funds out of all/most Kiwisavers.

I never got around to filling in the forms and getting JPs etc etc but I was allowed to 'withdraw' most of what I had with minimal fuss (and quickly) .....Seems taking the lot and ending your relationship with them is a no no.

I now have a few thou in a Kiwisaver Fund and I haven't even bothered seeing how much it has grown or shrunk. Leave it there until I die and then somebody else has the hassle to get what's there

Wife and I had no trouble getting our full Kiwi Saver funds out of Craigs.
Long time ago,but I would have remembered if we had had issues.
Funds were recycled straight away buying shares via Craigs.

AML compliance has become a serious headache in recent years.

Quote from: Basil on Jan 26, 2023, 08:36 PMAML compliance has become a serious headache in recent years.

You are right, and fair enough.

However - different organisations deal with these regulations in different ways, and I don't see any reason why they would stop an organisation to be courteous, well organised and responsive to customers.

While some of the pain in the current withdrawal process might be due to more stringent money handling procedures, I see nothing stopping them to proactively contact their clients when these reach the withdrawal age, I don't see how these regulations would stop them to publish the information about the withdrawal process on their website, I don't see why any regulations would require them to understaff their call centres to make sure customers need to wait for ages in the queue, I don't see why these procedures require them to not respond to questions send to them through their chat system, and I don't see why they need one specific (and several times not available) advisor to inform the client about the withdrawal process ... while it is quite painful and bureaucratic, it does not appear to be customer specific. Any call centre staff with access to a screen could have done that.

Sure - maybe Fisher Funds are "just" overwhelmed by their recent acquisition of Kiwi Wealth (I assume they are trying to "gain synergies" and merged customer service departments) ... but for existing customers this is quite bad news. 

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 26, 2023, 06:29 PMFisher Funds currently a bit of a red cloth for me ...

I had one of these birthdays nobody wants to mention ... and am now entitled to withdraw my Kiwi saver savings.

A number of (overseas) fund managers and insurances did send me in timely fashion a friendly letter, congratulated and advised me about he process how to access my funds. Good stuff!

Fisher Funds (holding my Kiwi Saver account) however decided to do nothing. No letter, no email, no response to my request to contact me (using their chat tool). No withdrawal information on their website, and the info in their original prospectus I got when I signed up is outdated (the website has moved ...).

So - I decided to call them and it took me nearly an hour of often quite bad music to wait for a human talking with me. He knew immediately who I was (i.e. their system seems to identify phone numbers, but then he told me that I need to talk with my "responsible" account manager who unfortunately was not around. Bad luck. Should have timed my phone call better.

Ah well, my account manager (I've never knew I had one) actually called me the next day (only 10 minutes later than agreed) and told me after inquiries about my reasons to contact them about the process to withdraw my savings ... start with filling out a nine page long form and get various details confirmed by a JP or similar and put the whole lot into the mail. No, forget the internet. Only snail mail. For withdrawals they need certified originals.

OK - I spent the morning to prepare all the stuff they want and even found a JP to certify. Nice lady, btw. Now I am praying the whole lot arrives safe in Auckland and Fisher Funds internal mail system is better than their chat service ... and in another month or so I might have access to my Kiwi saver money to invest by myself.

Seems like Fisher Funds are very happy to take money from whomever, but very specific if anybody wants them to return this money.

At this stage I don't feel I can recommend using their Kiwi saver services ... but hey, maybe the rest is worse, I wouldn't know.

we had a very modest amount invested with Fisher funds, in one of their managed funds, as a joint account. same deal for us when we asked to withdraw it. visits to the JP, proof of address , ID verification etc.
thought it may have been because as a joint account they had to make sure one or other of us was not ripping off the other.
it was a real rigmarole.

This may be slightly off topic but I would never deal with Fishers again. My late mother had a managed portfolio with them. When she passed it took the Public Trust months to receive the proceeds.When Fishers did sell the funds (mainly PIE)  they repurchased them again!! I couldn't believe it! And then they didn't pay everything out in one go. The Public Trust got very frustrated with them and it cost the estate because of the extra work and follow-ups PT had to do. So no its not a "big yes" from me for Fishers!!

My recent total withdrawal from ASB's kiwisaver was completely painless, all done online with very little to fill out.  I had logged in via my ASB account, so that may have reduced the AML requirements on me.

Hello,

First post here. I see one of Marlin's holdings (4.0% at Dec 22, 4.7% at Jun 22 before share price slide) was Signature Bank which has just been shut down by US regulators. Unlikely to help Marlin NTA. See Marlin has issued NZX announcement on this as below.

13/3/2023, 3:35 pm MKTUPDTE
13 March 2023

Marlin Global Limited – Update regarding investment in Signature Bank

It has been reported today, in a joint announcement by the US Treasury, Federal Reserve (Fed) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), that the FDIC have taken control of Signature Bank, in order to stabilise the banking system and safeguard against systemic banking risk.

The move by the FDIC will protect all of Signature Bank's deposit holders, but will not protect Signature Bank shareholders or certain unsecured debt holders.

Signature Bank is one of the 22 portfolio investments held by Marlin Global Limited. The equity investment in Signature Bank, as at the most recent net asset value (NAV) (released to the NZX 8th March 2023) equated to 3.3% of Marlin's investment portfolio.

The next Marlin Global Limited NAV will be released to the NZX on Thursday 16 March 2023.

Welcome to the forum Mos.  I have held MLN in the past but its certainly not worth the premium to NTA its been trading at in recent times so I exited my stake quite some time ago.  The way the management team have been performing lately, with adjusted NTA down 13.4% v 2.4% for the index for the year to 28 February 2023, I would argue they should probably trade at a discount to NTA again.  Not just that, I really struggle to foresee how their tech heavy portfolio is going to outperform the market in the near term.  Frankly I'd rather find a good fund manager that specializes in deep value stocks on the S&P500.   

Thanks Basil, have to agree with you on that one - looks like high fees/costs for mediocre performance and trading at a premium as you say. I don't get the sense they have any competitive advantage investing globally as they possibly do in NZ.

No competitive advantage, agree 100%.  In many ways they handicap themselves with not being proactive but in many instances also not even being reactive.  Does being paid fat fees for just reading analyst reports and then set and forget investments for 10 years plus regardless of what happens, really cut the mustard in 2023 ?

That job you described sounds pretty attractive. Should have thought of that as a career option!

Interesting to hear this indirectly and not from Fishers themselves. Very disappointing given all out family's Kiwi saver are with Fishers.

Have not been great results compared to others lately either. Looks like after reading this, downside to continue.

Might be time for a change?

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/fisher-funds-loses-80m-in-bank-collapse

If I remember correctly these guys also had a huge position in Wirecard for years :o

Maybe the pros should spend more time researching and doing DD/analysis rather then staring at a Bloomberg terminal.

Quote from: Mos on Mar 13, 2023, 06:57 PMThanks Basil, have to agree with you on that one - looks like high fees/costs for mediocre performance and trading at a premium as you say. I don't get the sense they have any competitive advantage investing globally as they possibly do in NZ.

I have a small holding in KFL at this point in time as it adds to the diversification of my portfolio and frankly, they have more patience than I do with holding their shares in long term growth companies like IFT.  I only ever add when KFL trade at a discount to NTA like they did on Friday closing at $1.32 with a last reported NTA of $1.3823 (4.5% discount) and I know the market has moved up since that NTA was measured so it will be interesting to see the size of the discount when the end of month NTA is announced tomorrow.  They recently changed their buy-back policy such that they can buy-back their own shares when they trade at a 6% discount to NTA (formerly 8%). I think the current share price is probably getting close to that new threshold and underpinned by a potential buy-back going forward.  I use the DRIP to get a 3% discount on the quarterly dividends.  There should be a new warrant issue coming up for KFL soon.
Warrants can be a fun instrument to work away with in a rising market, not so much in a falling market and I have a truckload of worthless Barramundi warrants that probably won't be worth exercising next month.  (Previous issues of BRM warrants have been very good for me so one has to be philosophical at times like this)
I know it's easy to replicate their portfolio buying the shares on the NZX but if you're buying KFL at a reasonable discount to NTA it seems like a reasonable strategy to me.

That does make sense Basil, your approach of adding when at a reasonable discount to NTA. From memory the costs of running the fund including base fees and performance fees is around 2%+ p.a. of FUM. A small part of this can be offset by the pie tax rate of 28% vs 33%/39% and the fact that FF can trade freely without worrying about being subject to cap gains tax under the pie regime. However approx 2% cost disadvantage vs DIY is a sizeable hurdle to overcome in my view. The long term record of the respective FF companies suggest that in NZ their local knowledge/access may give FF a chance of overcoming the hurdle.

Latest NTA just on $1.40 and share price at a 6% discount to that at $1.31..some big trades today at $1.30.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/409618/392247.pdf
Probably underpinned by their share buyback program at these level's.  Amended buy-back program announcement here
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/402574/383680.pdf

Good for diversification. Fees ? Another option would be smart shares.

https://moneykingnz.com/smartshares-superlife-review-the-smart-way-to-invest-in-shares/

Fair bit of noise on the other site about the discount to NTA KFL are trading at, circa 8% so here's my 2 cents worth, remembering that KFL themselves can buy back the stock at anything more than a 6% discount to NTA now as noted in my earlier post in this thread.

I agree 100% its a good opportunity at that level and have been actioning that with significant buys at $1.29 and $1.30  I see it as a good opportunity to acquire a range of high-quality companies in their portfolio at an ~ 8% discount to NTA.  Their portfolio adds significant diversification to mine and also allows me to buy high quality growth companies like SUM, MFT and IFT at an 8% discount to their current share price and still achieve my objective of a minimum of 8% return on my portfolio.  Actually get 8.7% net (8 / 0.92) when buying at an 8% discount to NTA which can be boosted to 8.97% net (8.7 / 0.97) if you take shares in lieu of dividend at 3% discount like I do.  ~ 9% net = 13.43% gross for 33% taxpayers so you can see why a dividend hound like me is very interested in this.  Quarterly distributions for this group are also cool.
Have also added quite significantly to my stake in Barramundi in recent weeks as well, at slightly below NTA.
KFL share price well underpinned by the buy-back at these level's.

I'm not going to respond to some jibes that this is better than HLG or TRA or other high yield income stocks other than to note there are many different ways to skin a cat.

Ronaldson asked a question about whether Trustee's with their trusts would be better off investing in PIE's with the forthcoming 39% tax rate for Trusts.
Yes absolutely.  There's going to be a whopping 11% difference in the tax rate from 1 April 2024, PIE final tax rate is 28% v investment income received direct to a Trust and tax at the new Trust rate 39%.  I think this makes PIE investment for Trusts extremely attractive.
More info on the PIE thing for Trusts is available on the IRD website here https://www.ird.govt.nz/income-tax/income-tax-for-businesses-and-organisations/types-of-business-income/income-from-portfolio-investment-entities-pies/portfolio-investment-entities-and-trustees

I would add that KFL has proven its ability to generate the yields noted above over the long run because its current NTA is well north of the float price of $1.

Those who are retired or semi retired like me, or people who simply want tax effective high income couldn't care less, (tell someone who cares, I don't), where their income comes from as long as it keeps coming and their capital is not being eroded.

Looking across the ditch, any thoughts on BRM Barramundi as an easy way to cover the ASX? 
Price is sitting v slightly above NTA. Not a compelling discount like KFL, but not out of the ball park either. 

Welcome to the forum Nizzy.
BRM's portfolio is much better diversified than KFL's and yes, if you're buying at NTA or slightly below I think its a great way to add diversification to your N.Z. portfolio.  I've been very busy buying at slightly below NTA at 69 cents recently. 

Quote from: Basil on May 24, 2023, 12:03 PMI would add that KFL has proven its ability to generate the yields noted above over the long run because its current NTA is well north of the float price of $1.

Those who are retired or semi retired like me, or people who simply want tax effective high income couldn't care less, (tell someone who cares, I don't), where their income comes from as long as it keeps coming and their capital is not being eroded.

Good point re KFL. Doesn't apply to BRM or MLN though - both below $1.00

A blended average of the three would see you pretty much square over the long run.
For older investors looking for tax free retirement income and those looking for income and on a 33% or 39% tax rate, these make a good case for themselves.

Some tax payable on shares due to the FIF regime possibly explains some of the underperformance of BRM and MLN relative to KFL, but I suspect they know their home market best and that's also a factor.

The warrants can be a lucrative way to play there for those that know what they're doing and how to price them.  That said I got left with a few hundred thousand worthless BRM warrants this month that cost me just on $10K so they're not always a winner. 

I like the opportunity that presents itself from time to time to buy at a decent discount to NTA and also that they have more patience than I do to hold their long term growth stocks. 

Just as an aside, each of these companies also put on a pretty good lunch after their annual meetings.

Winner (n) posted info about VSL added to KFL.

https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=86.msg11334#msg11334

Kingfish Warrant issue announced.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/413355/396826.pdf

KFL shares at $1.32 currently trade at an approx 4% discount to NTA and cum the free 1:4 warrant issue.
Record date for warrant issue is 5 July and warrants start trading 7 July.  Looks like today and Monday are the last 2 days KFL shares trade cum warrant entitlement.  I hold a reasonable number as a simple way of achieving greater diversification in my portfolio.

The "game" commences this Friday when they start trading, on how to price Kingfish's latest warrant KFLWH.  I have an allocation of free warrants.
I concur with some other comments posted elsewhere the exercise price is likely to be about $1.25.
Warrants have been a very happy hunting ground for this Beagle and I have very fond memories of the WF warrant series for Kingfish and especially Barramundi.
Some decent size fish landed in those two fishing expeditions...
I think it's highly likely that Barramundi will have another warrant issue, WH series later this year, probably sometime in October or November.
Disc: I have been busy buying Barrmundi shares.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 04, 2023, 05:39 PMThe "game" commences this Friday when they start trading, on how to price Kingfish's latest warrant KFLWH.  I have an allocation of free warrants.
I concur with some other comments posted elsewhere the exercise price is likely to be about $1.25.
Warrants have been a very happy hunting ground for this Beagle and I have very fond memories of the WF warrant series for Kingfish and especially Barramundi.
Some decent size fish landed in those two fishing expeditions...
I think it's highly likely that Barramundi will have another warrant issue, WH series later this year, probably sometime in October or November.
Disc: I have been busy buying Barrmundi shares.

Interesting. I must admit this (warrants) is one income source I Have so far completely ignored and know very little about. Is it as speculative as it sounds to my untrained ear?

Would you happen to have some reading material you could recommend?

Here's the warrant terms  https://kingfish.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Kingfish-Warrant-Terms-2023.pdf

You can learn a bit more about warrants and the underlying call option they contain here
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071513/warrants-and-call-options.asp

Essentially owning a warrant confers upon the holder the right, but not the obligation to subscribe to one KFL share in late July 2024 at about $1.25 per share.
What's that worth at any point in time is a moving target based on a number of factors, especially the underlying NTA of the shares at any particular point in time. 

Some people find the leverage attractive, for example you might buy 100,000 warrants at just a small fraction of the underlying share price and will enjoy nearly 13 months of potential upside to KFL shares or if the market tanks really badly you might lose the purchase price of the option.

Warrant prices can vary a lot throughout their term, you can win big or lose the lot, so they are not for the faint hearted.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 05, 2023, 10:56 AMHere's the warrant terms  https://kingfish.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Kingfish-Warrant-Terms-2023.pdf

You can learn a bit more about warrants and the underlying call option they contain here
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071513/warrants-and-call-options.asp

Essentially owning a warrant confers upon the holder the right, but not the obligation to subscribe to one KFL share in late July 2024 at about $1.25 per share.
What's that worth at any point in time is a moving target based on a number of factors, especially the underlying NTA of the shares at any particular point in time. 

Some people find the leverage attractive, for example you might buy 100,000 warrants at just a small fraction of the underlying share price and will enjoy nearly 13 months of potential upside to KFL shares or if the market tanks really badly you might lose the purchase price of the option.

Warrant prices can vary a lot throughout their term, you can win big or lose the lot, so they are not for the faint hearted.

OK, cheers. So - its basically doing the same thing as an option, just that it is issued by the company. Great instrument for anybody who can predict the future :) ;

For anyone who is interested, scroll down to the bottom - Kingfish investor event on 9th August:


https://mailchi.mp/nzx.com/virtual-investor-event-19jul23?e=a16d6df77c

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 05, 2023, 11:47 AMOK, cheers. So - its basically doing the same thing as an option, just that it is issued by the company. Great instrument for anybody who can predict the future :) ;

Aren't we all trying to predict the future BP?
Company A is likely to outperform Company B that's why we choose company A.

Its one of the oldest debates isn't it.  Do stock picking fund managers earn their fees or are you better off in a low cost ETF ?

I think its a good idea to have another look at this question as it pertains to the Kingfish group as I haven't done this for quite a long time and without fear or favour I always look at stocks over the last 5 years so will use the same timeframe for Fisher's listed entities.

In their June reports Kingfish is here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/413029/396466.pdf
Kingfish noted their 5 year annualized NAV return, so that's the net movement in assets after all fees and taxes is 8.5% per annum.  Their gross performance, before fees, averaged 10.8% per annum and the NZX50 was up 6.4% per annum.  I'd give that a big thumbs up as resoundingly beating the market by more than 2% per annum even after costs of 2.3% per annum.  Top marks there.

Next let's look at Barramundi http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BRM/413030/396467.pdf and we see annualized 5 year NAV of 11% after fees and taxes, gross performance of 13.9% per annum before fees and taxes and that compares to the ASX200 hedged 70% to Kiwi of 7.8% per annum.  I call that an outstanding success beating the index by 3.2% after fees and taxes, very impressive indeed. 

Finally let's look at Marlin http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/413031/396468.pdf
Adjusted NAV is 8% per annum after all costs and taxes, Gross performance is 10.9% per annum and the benchmark is 6.4% per annum.
Another outstanding result.

Conclusion: When you look across the 5 year annualized performance of the group you have no choice but to come to the conclusion that not only do these guys earn their fees, even after fees and taxes they have impressively outperformed the index's which have no fees or taxes.

Maybe this isn't a fluke and they have real skills in predicting whether Company A will outperform Company B ?

Disc: I have a significant number of Barramundi shares and a more modest number of Kingfish shares.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 05, 2023, 06:00 PMAren't we all trying to predict the future BP?
Company A is likely to outperform Company B that's why we choose company A.....
.....
Disc: I have a significant number of Barramundi shares and a more modest number of Kingfish shares.

Interesting post.

Made me wonder how BRM and KFL compared to my IFT yardstick over the last 5 yrs.

This chart only shows IFT v KFL (Tho  similar results with BRM.)

Conclusion; IFT a hard act to beat...... but then cynics will say, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance."

Chart like that is not going to give you the full story as it doesn't include dividends (2% of NAV tax free paid per quarter with KFL), or the value of warrant issues.

That said, I am pleased IFT is 17% of KFL's portfolio.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 05, 2023, 06:00 PMAren't we all trying to predict the future BP?
Company A is likely to outperform Company B that's why we choose company A.

Its one of the oldest debates isn't it.  Do stock picking fund managers earn their fees or are you better off in a low cost ETF ?

...

Conclusion: When you look across the 5 year annualized performance of the group you have no choice but to come to the conclusion that not only do these guys earn their fees, even after fees and taxes they have impressively outperformed the index's which have no fees or taxes.

Maybe this isn't a fluke and they have real skills in predicting whether Company A will outperform Company B ?

Disc: I have a significant number of Barramundi shares and a more modest number of Kingfish shares.

No worries, I didn't call it a fluke.

I notice however, that e.g. Kingfish somewhat underperformed the NZX50 over the last 10 years ... KFL gained 28% vs NZX50 which gained 176%.

Granted, KFL paid dividends, while the NZX50 assumes reinvestment, but still - 148% more in 10 years, this equals roughly a 10% annual payout. Currently Kingfish pays 9%, and the missing 1% goes (I suppose) to the fund manager.

So - based on this example (which may or may not be fair) it looks like they have the payout of an index fund, just with higher fees attached.

But I really just wanted to understand what this warrant thingy is, and now I do. No worries.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 06, 2023, 09:44 AMChart like that is not going to give you the full story as it doesn't include dividends (2% of NAV tax free paid per quarter with KFL), or the value of warrant issues.

Mmmmm full story looks pretty good IMHO..... IFT 26.5% pa after tax total return in the last 4 yrs.

IFT have done exceptionally well, no argument about that Left Field.
BP Kingfish probably had 5 warrant issues in the last decade so if you factor in the value of those as well as the 8% tax free dividends, I am confident they have beaten the NZX50 over your preferred measurement timeframe too.

Be interesting to see where the latest warrants list tomorrow.    Lot of speculation in the other place about that.

Warning, lengthy flippant rant on "valuing" these warrants follows...none of this should be considered to in any way whatsoever representing anything vaguely resembling a professional valuation, read on a load of mindless claptrap if you dare LOL

NAV is $1.41 and exercise price of the warrants is probably going to be $1.25 so a real quick and easy calculation suggests the difference at 16 cents = warrant price.  Gosh this is easy eh, primary school stuff.

It can't be that easy I thought so I dusted off and polished up my trusty Black and Schoals option pricing model and played around with that almost endlessly with all sorts of different adjustments for different estimated volatility ratings of the market, anything from the current VIX on the US market of 14 to a more common recent average of 19.  Risk free rate varying from 5% down to possibly as low as 4%, 8% of dividends over the next 12 2/3rd's months, tried plugging in the current share price, then using the NTA, then adjusting the NTA for the dilutionary effect of the exercise of approx 80% of warrant holders and one or two other things and got answers varying from 12.3 cps to 14.5 cps.  I then decided that none of these answers are probably right because the fundamental weakness of this model is it's based on the random walk theory that nobody can predict the future direction of the market.  I reckon BP would have stopped right there and called it a day and said fair value is 12.3 - 14.5 cents and I am sure some professionals will get results like this and be happy with that answer.  But not this wily old Dog who picks up the distinct smell of this answer anywhere in that range being B.S..   Beagles always trust their nose because most of the time its right. So after about 2 hours of doing what I proudly thought was a pretty good professional job of looking and analyzing this I realized that the random walk theory probably doesn't hold water when you are at the top of the interest rate cycle.

So after doing all that I got to thinking the Black and Shoals model with its random walk theory probably needs to be "Beagalised" for the top of the interest rate cycle factor and what effect coming down off the peak has on the market over the next ~ 13 months.

But how much net present value does this add to the warrant ?  Gosh that's a really tough question.  Too hard really.  There must be a shortcut answer.  Not having a Beagle any more I decided to check how many claws Tony the Pony has on his four paws...maybe the answer to this mystery lies in there I mused after having probably consumed one too many beers and pondering how to Beagalise the Black and Shoals model for probably far too long LOL.

What do you know, he has 16 claws in total so at this point I have concluded the answer is that no matter if you take a really quick and dirty look at valuing this, as per my opening paragraph of this somewhat mindless rant of 16 cents, or you Beaglise the Black and Shoals pricing model for how many claws my dog Tony has to account for the top of the interest rate cycle, the answer is the same, 16.  This cannot be a coincidence, surely ?

We'll see how silly this all is tomorrow. or maybe it's right on the money and Beagalising the Black and Shoals model no matter how ridiculous it sounds, is actually a very cunning methodology....but then again I could have used the first quick and easy method, saved myself hours of musings and calculations and got exactly the same answer LOL

Disc: No confirmation bias was involved in adjusting the Black and Shoals model for how many claws Tony has or that it coincided with the first quick and easy valuation answer LOL  ;D  ;D

So there you have it Ladies and Gentleman, the warrants will trade at about 16 cents tomorrow.  Gosh this stuff is easy.
Opps, I forgot his dew claw on each of his front feet, so maybe its 18 cents LOL

Good work there Basil

Pricing mechanisms bit too sophisticated for most so punters will do the easy sums and buy/sell what they think is fair

But as you pointed out previously these warrants are a vehicle to leverage returns over the next 12 months from KFL ......whether one is intending to take the 125 cent shares or capture what could be 100% to 200% returns if you time  exit right.

Your trusty Black-Scholes thingie will be useful when punters try to understand the warrants price in 3 or so months time .....so don't put it away

Quote from: Basil on Jul 06, 2023, 08:10 PMNAV is $1.41 and exercise price of the warrants is probably going to be $1.25 so a real quick and easy calculation suggests the difference at 16 cents = warrant price.  Gosh this is easy eh, primary school stuff.

It can't be that easy I thought so I dusted off and polished up my trusty Black and Schoals option pricing model and played around with that almost endlessly with all sorts of different adjustments for different estimated volatility ratings of the market, anything from the current VIX on the US market of 14 to a more common recent average of 19.  Risk free rate varying from 5% down to possibly as low as 4%, 8% of dividends over the next 12 2/3rd's months, tried plugging in the current share price, then using the NTA, then adjusting the NTA for the dilutionary effect of the exercise of approx 80% of warrant holders and one or two other things and got answers varying from 12.3 cps to 14.5 cps.  I then decided that none of these answers are probably right because the fundamental weakness of this model is it's based on the random walk theory that nobody can predict the future direction of the market.  I reckon BP would have stopped right there and called it a day and said fair value is 12.3 - 14.5 cents and I am sure some professionals will get results like this and be happy with that answer.  But not this wily old Dog who picks up the distinct smell of this answer anywhere in that range being B.S..   Beagles always trust their nose because most of the time its right. So after about 2 hours of doing what I proudly thought was a pretty good professional job of looking and analyzing this I realized that the random walk theory probably doesn't hold water when you are at the top of the interest rate cycle.

So after doing all that I got to thinking the Black and Shoals model with its random walk theory probably needs to be "Beagalised" for the top of the interest rate cycle factor and what effect coming down off the peak has on the market over the next ~ 13 months.

But how much net present value does this add to the warrant ?  Gosh that's a really tough question.  Too hard really.  There must be a shortcut answer.  Not having a Beagle any more I decided to check how many claws Tony the Pony has on his four paws...maybe the answer to this mystery lies in there I mused after having probably consumed one too many beers and pondering how to Beagalise the Black and Shoals model for probably far too long LOL.

What do you know, he has 16 claws in total so at this point I have concluded the answer is that no matter if you take a really quick and dirty look at valuing this, as per my opening paragraph of this somewhat mindless rant of 16 cents, or you Beaglise the Black and Shoals pricing model for how many claws my dog Tony has to account for the top of the interest rate cycle, the answer is the same, 16.  This cannot be a coincidence, surely ?

We'll see how silly this all is tomorrow. or maybe it's right on the money and Beagalising the Black and Shoals model no matter how ridiculous it sounds, is actually a very cunning methodology....but then again I could have used the first quick and easy method, saved myself hours of musings and calculations and got exactly the same answer LOL

Basil, my learned beagle vriend.  Your accountobabble is above ze level an old pilot can process.  Zo I resort to 'Google translate' to understand you.

VIX:  "The VIX measures S&P 500 options, which are options contracts that take their prices from Standard & Poor's 500 – a capitalisation weighted index of 500 stocks in the US. They give the trader the right, but not the obligation, to trade the S&P 500 at a set price, before a set date of expiry."

"It judges the expectations of the stock market over the following 30-day period.   It represents the markets expectations of volatility over the coming 30 days."

"Is it better if the VIX is high or low?"
"In general, VIX values of greater than 30 are considered to signal heightened volatility from increased uncertainty, risk and investor fear. VIX values below 20 generally correspond to more stable, less stressful periods in the markets"

"What is the current value of VIX today?"
15.44, but on the rise.

The VIX model is based on a forward looking view that the path of a market going forwards is random.  However, with your knowledge Basil, of the interest rate cycle, while you can't predict which way interest rates will go tomorrow, you do have a good idea that interest rates will be lower in a years time (something that the model cannot incorporate).  This means the market has an unseen future tailwind that will cause the Black-Scholes model to underestimate (in this case  the upside of) share price volatility.

Therefore your solution is to take the Black-Scholes model rezult and add a 'vudge vactor' on the upside?

I theenk zhat is vhat you are zaying, but no doubt you will "zhoot me down" eef I have eet vrong.

One more thing.  Although I admire your accounting prowess, I call you out on your racism.  Black or white, we are all really different shades of pink when it comes down to it.  So I call on you to cease your 'Black-Scholes' racist talk.  I have done a word frequency analysis on your posts, and the most frequent colour mentioned is pink - which ties in nicely, in a kind of spooky way.

So in honour of your learned modification to 'Black-Scholes' modelling, I hereby coin ze phrase the 'Pink-Scholes' method to reflect your thinking.  I hope you will accept this more neutral naming of your thought processes with good grace, and use 'Pink-Scholes'  from hereon into ze vuture.

RB

   

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 07, 2023, 08:23 AMGood work there Basil

Pricing mechanisms bit too sophisticated for most so punters will do the easy sums and buy/sell what they think is fair

But as you pointed out previously these warrants are a vehicle to leverage returns over the next 12 months from KFL ......whether one is intending to take the 125 cent shares or capture what could be 100% to 200% returns if you time  exit right.

Your trusty Black-Scholes thingie will be useful when punters try to understand the warrants price in 3 or so months time .....so don't put it away

Thanks mate, will keep that Black and Shoals model handy...seems not too shabby at picking the right price.

LOL Red Barron.  Luv urrr werk.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 07, 2023, 11:25 AMThanks mate, will keep that Black and Shoals model handy...seems not too shabby at picking the right price.

LOL Red Barron.  Luv urrr werk.

Surprised that some haven't asked what the heck does the VIX have to do with KFLWH

At least the Baron knows what the VIX is now

KFL Annual Report out and Annual Meeting 4th August. Who is voting "yes" to increasing the directors fee pool? (purely out of curiosity)

Inflation.  $157,500 to $185,500 five years later.  Fair and reasonable ?
I put the directors' fees last approved at $157,500 in 2018 into the Reserve Bank inflation calculator and asked what is that worth today and the answer is $189,747.77.

Aside from that, with warrant issues and DRP the size of the company has expanded and the pool seems pretty modest in the first place.  In addition I noted in my 5 year performance review of the group all funds had significantly exceeded their benchmarks over that timeframe.
Happy to tick the approve box as it seems fair and reasonable to me.

The Fisher funds group always put on a good lunch after the meeting so I might wander along to the annual meeting this year if time allows.

Managed to get some extra warrants at well below what my dog or my fancy Black and Shoals option pricing model thinks they're worth so it's a happy day.

It's been interesting reading all the excitement on various forums re the issuing of KFLWH's.

Bought to mind a distant memory of IFT warrants which caused similar excitement way back in 2007 when issued, so I did a search back in time to see what happened back then.

Interestingly, by exercise date in 2012. The IFT warrants were worthless. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/223427/158114.pdf

Just goes to show that Warrant issues/speculation aren't always a path to riches.

But of course this won't happen in the KFLWH case. Interesting though.

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 10, 2023, 12:36 PMJust goes to show that Warrant issues/speculation aren't always a path to riches.
But of course this won't happen in the KFLWH case. Interesting though.

I can't recall anyone saying they're a certain pathway to riches.
I think we all understand that for a very modest outlay you take a position, (possible purchase of more shares in late July 2024 at $1.25) on a company with current NTA, (that's last reported at $1.41).  If those assets go up a lot the warrants can be very valuable, (the 2021 series traded in a range of 3 to 45 cents, ask me how I know this ;D ), but if the underlying assets like their stake in IFT fall heaps, the NTA as at late July 2024 might be under $1.25 rendering the warrants worthless.

If there was a certain pathway to riches, we'd all be Billionaires.
For what it's worth I bought more today at 7 cents knowing they could be worth anything from nothing, to possibly as much as 45 cents in July 2024.
One thing I really like about warrants is that they have a lot of potential upside, whereas at 7 cents, or better still if you get them allocated free, if the world goes to Hell in a handbasket, the most you can lose is not very much.

Not advice, but what I do to avoid ever getting in over my head in terms of numbers held is to only buy any number of warrants I am fully prepared and comfortably resourced to exercise at $1.25.   Where people get into a situation where they are holding so many of them they cannot afford to exercise them, they become forced sellers late in the warrant's lifespan.  You never really want to be in a situation where you are a forced seller of anything.

I wasn't referring to you Basil, nor quoting you. Nor did I use the word 'certain.'

However I think you will agree some of the speculation (primarily on the other channel,) was getting a tab over-enthusiastic at times.

some astute investors on here turning into straight out gamblers by investing in KFL warrents.......KFL fully invested in NZ.... much of the OCR tightening yet to hit the broader economy and we are heading into an election that could see muppets and ideology rule the day.
Think I would have more fun at the casino, probably better odds of winning as well   

Always a bit of excitement that should be expected with any new financial instrument that comes along that offers the prospect of outsized gains.  Human nature being what it is mate.

Well, after a few drinks one night I started counting my dog's claws and thinking that was somehow relevant LOL so I'm probably just as guilty as any of some speculation but to be fair I did put up a valuation range under a range of scenario's using the well-respected Black and Shoals option valuation model.

Its fair enough that you cautioned they could be worthless.  I'm happy to acknowledge I experienced this in May 2023 with my 200,000 Barrmundi warrants and flushed just over $9K down the toilet.  Other times with other warrant issues I have done extremely well.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 10, 2023, 03:04 PMAlways a bit of excitement that should be expected with any new financial instrument that comes along that offers the prospect of outsized gains.  Human nature being what it is mate.

Well, after a few drinks one night I started counting my dog's claws and thinking that was somehow relevant LOL so I'm probably just as guilty as any of some speculation but to be fair I did put up a valuation range under a range of scenario's using the well-respected Black and Shoals option valuation model.

Its fair enough that you cautioned they could be worthless.  I'm happy to acknowledge I experienced this in May 2023 with my 200,000 Barrmundi warrants and flushed just over $9K down the toilet.  Other times with other warrant issues I have done extremely well.

nothing wrong with warrents, I just think your timing on these one's are not the best, such is my outlook for the NZ economy.
I to enjoy a wee tipple, one session ended in me taken out a share in several different race horses, although I did say to my self at the time that I was flushing money down the toilet and the return was fun only

Quote from: snapiti on Jul 10, 2023, 03:00 PMsome astute investors on here turning into straight out gamblers by investing in KFL warrents.......KFL fully invested in NZ.... much of the OCR tightening yet to hit the broader economy and we are heading into an election that could see muppets and ideology rule the day.
Think I would have more fun at the casino, probably better odds of winning as well   

There's a number of ways to deal with the warrants and they can be a risk management tool as well as pure speculation.
For example, if someone bought 100,000 warrants at 7 cents they enjoy all the upside in the underlying asset, they have in effect an option on the upside of $141,000 of assets and then sold $134,000 of either Kingfish shares or other N.Z. shares and effectively take $134,000 off the table in terms of risk.  Doing that means the most they can lose on that $141,000 of assets is now $7,000.  If as you suggest, the Muppets and ideologists get another term they might be very pleased they partially mitigated their portfolio risk.
On the other hand if National and Act form the next Government and the market goes up they still capture all the gains they might have otherwise made.

Speculation - Some people might buy say 1,000,000 warrants at say 7 cents for $70,000 without the resources to exercise them in due course ($1.25m) speculating they can sell them for more down the track.  They might win big or blow the lot.

Punters paradise or risk management tool, it's all about how you go about things.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 10, 2023, 03:04 PMAlways a bit of excitement that should be expected with any new financial instrument that comes along that offers the prospect of outsized gains.  Human nature being what it is mate.

Well, after a few drinks one night I started counting my dog's claws and thinking that was somehow relevant LOL so I'm probably just as guilty as any of some speculation but to be fair I did put up a valuation range under a range of scenario's using the well-respected Black and Shoals option valuation model.

Its fair enough that you cautioned they could be worthless.  I'm happy to acknowledge I experienced this in May 2023 with my 200,000 Barrmundi warrants and flushed just over $9K down the toilet.  Other times with other warrant issues I have done extremely well.

Hey Bazza

Love your wine valuation with extra dew claws 😂

This is your mate Shoals  - overall he is pretty discredited in my eyes -  he believed his models / doubled down / doubled down again and then blew up 🤭


LTCM was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether, the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers. Members of LTCM's board of directors included Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton, who three years later in 1997 shared the Nobel Prize in Economics for having developed the Black–Scholes model of financial dynamics.[2][3]

LTCM was initially successful, with annualized returns (after fees) of around 21% in its first year, 43% in its second year and 41% in its third year. However, in 1998 it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months due to a combination of high leverage and exposure to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 1998 Russian financial crisis.[4] The master hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Portfolio L.P., collapsed soon thereafter, leading to an agreement on September 23, 1998, among 14 financial institutions for a $3.65 billion recapitalization under the supervision of the Federal Reserve.[1] The fund was liquidated and dissolved in early 2000.


More money than sense? and most of it not his 🤭

Tony is really miffed that they're not trading at 18 claws, opps sorry, cents LOL.
Greed does funny things to all sorts of people mate.
Black and Shoals option pricing model still in widespread use by professional valuers today.
The model's a good one in my opinion....best we have but it can't solve the age old human nature issues of fear and greed and it's not predicative as to overall market performance.
The underlying hypothesis is of a random walk theory with the market.
When you drink too much and start thinking your dog has special answers or that you can pick the market direction for sure, is probably how people get into trouble LOL
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackscholes.asp

Quote from: Basil on Jul 10, 2023, 05:10 PMThere's a number of ways to deal with the warrants and they can be a risk management tool as well as pure speculation.
For example, if someone bought 100,000 warrants at 7 cents they enjoy all the upside in the underlying asset, they have in effect an option on the upside of $141,000 of assets and then sold $134,000 of either Kingfish shares or other N.Z. shares and effectively take $134,000 off the table in terms of risk.  Doing that means the most they can lose on that $141,000 of assets is now $7,000.  If as you suggest, the Muppets and ideologists get another term they might be very pleased they partially mitigated their portfolio risk.
On the other hand if National and Act form the next Government and the market goes up they still capture all the gains they might have otherwise made.

Speculation - Some people might buy say 1,000,000 warrants at say 7 cents for $70,000 without the resources to exercise them in due course ($1.25m) speculating they can sell them for more down the track.  They might win big or blow the lot.

Punters paradise or risk management tool, it's all about how you go about things.

At first I thought you were gaslighting me Beagle, but thats not your style so I gave your post some more thoughts......I suppose one could look at it as a risk management tool.....huge upside potential with a lessor downside risk........although in this case me thinks there is a lot more downside risk than you maybe inputting

Snapper me ol mate I wouldn't do that.
Warrants on Kingfish are like fishing for Kingfish.
You charter a boat, get your bait and gear and that costs you 7 or 8 cents x the number of warrants you buy.
Who knows, you might land a whole boatload of 30 kg kingfish or you might come home empty handed and lose your charter boat fee and bait costs but probably have a good time anyway.  If you pay 7 cents per warrant, obviously that's the most you can lose per warrant.  Nobody holds a gun to your head forcing you to exercise them at $1.25 in late July 2024, its entirely optional.

Like I said earlier today, I flushed $9K down the toilet on Barrmundi warrants in May so I have experience in catching nothing...other times with other warrant issues I've landed a lot of fish.  Like fishing, you never really know the final outcome until you've finished the trip.
There's more fun to be had fishing than sitting on the dock  ;)

Quote from: Basil on Jul 10, 2023, 08:25 PMSnapper me ol mate I wouldn't do that.
Warrants on Kingfish are like fishing for Kingfish.
You charter a boat, get your bait and gear and that costs you 7 or 8 cents x the number of warrants you buy.
Who knows, you might land a whole boatload of 30 kg kingfish or you might come home empty handed and lose your charter boat fee and bait costs but probably have a good time anyway.  If you pay 7 cents per warrant, obviously that's the most you can lose per warrant.  Nobody holds a gun to your head forcing you to exercise them at $1.25 in late July 2024, its entirely optional.

Like I said earlier today, I flushed $9K down the toilet on Barrmundi warrants in May so I have experience in catching nothing...other times with other warrant issues I've landed a lot of fish.  Like fishing, you never really know the final outcome until you've finished the trip.
There's more fun to be had fishing than sitting on the dock  ;)

you assume one needs to be out in a boat to catch plenty of fish?.....crickey I better be careful I will start to sound as facetious as winner69

Never been fishing for Kingfish off the rocks in some remote place.  Must add that to the bucket list.  Maybe go ashore in some remote rocky part of Gt Barrier like "The Needles" at the northern most point this summer, burly up and see what happens.  Need a really good boat to get there though, fortunately I have one in mind  ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdAVWbKAAkI&ab_channel=Steffie

catching kingfish from the dock.....no boat needed

That first one was very impressive.  About the same size I caught at Gt Barrier a while ago and we got 5 meals for the whole family from the one fish !...but you can't catch them without bait.

The warrants are the cheap bait to catch Kingfish shares.
Think about it, last reported NTA was $1.41 and the warrants give you the right but not the obligation to buy more Kingfish shares at $1.25 in late July 2024.

National well ahead of Labour in the most recent poll.  What if they and Act get in and Kingfish shares are $1.60 next July?  Those warrants could be 35 cents then.

They may have wished to have delayed their VSL buy in for a couple of weeks..... not that one can time the market. Long run probably no biggie.

Quote from: Onemootpoint on Jul 17, 2023, 07:43 PMThey may have wished to have delayed their VSL buy in for a couple of weeks..... not that one can time the market. Long run probably no biggie.

There was an old saying once 'Fishers buying is a sell signal and vice versa'

Haven't heard it lately but maybe they reverting to the good old days

nice discount to NAV on offer...... BRM

I was having a sniff around ASX listed fund stocks.....they all seem to trade well below NAV

Kingfish quarterly newsletter out:

https://kingfish.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Kingfish-Newsletter-June-2023.pdf

Interesting the influence of the RV stocks, and also the small holding in Vulcan (at the time of writing the report) impacting the bottom line.

For the record....ASM presentation. Trying to be cheerful

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/415824/399703.pdf

Interesting chart...

( Don't hold KFL but 53% of my portfolio depicted on the positive side of this chart. Naaice.)

14 September 2023

DIVIDEND REINVESTMENT PLAN PRICE DETERMINED


Kingfish Limited (Kingfish) advises that the share price used to calculate
entitlements under the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (the DRP) has been set at
$1.2191.


This is the volume weighted average price of all Kingfish shares traded on
the NZX Main Board during the five trading days from and including the
ex-dividend date (being 6 September 2023), less a 3.0% discount.

The new shares will be issued on the dividend payment date (being 22
September 2023) to those shareholders who have elected to participate in the
DRP.

And,
BRM: DIVIDEND REINVESTMENT PLAN PRICE DETERMINED

14 September 2023

DIVIDEND REINVESTMENT PLAN PRICE DETERMINED

Barramundi Limited (Barramundi) advises that the share price used to
calculate entitlements under the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (the DRP) has
been set at $0.7057.

This is the volume weighted average price of all Barramundi shares traded on
the NZX Main Board during the five trading days from and including the
ex-dividend date (being 6 September 2023), less a 3.0% discount.

The new shares will be issued on the dividend payment date (being 22
September 2023) to those shareholders who have elected to participate in the
DRP.

With the three Fisher funds offerings going ex-div today I thought it may present a decent buying opportunity  - particularly BRM earlier in the day. After all, the next ex-viv and following pay date is only three months away.

That's to say if you're into this style of investing.

Have been quietly hoovering up quite a few Marlin in recent months.  Done pretty well so far.  NTA has been about $1.01 for a few weeks now and the US tech sector went gangbusters this week with Nivida's result which itself went up 16% in one day).  Other tech stocks that are in MLN's portfolio involved with A.I. in one way or another caught the tailwind, and I am expecting a reasonable NTA increase next week.  Now I have quite a few I might build up a spreadsheet model and report NAV from time to time.    A decent number on offer at 99 cents and NAV at a guess is about $1.03-$1.04 at present.  I'd buy them myself if I didn't have a sizeable holding already.  I'm expecting another Marlin warrant issue in the next few months.  Opportunity knocks?  You be the judge.

Quote from: Basil on Feb 24, 2024, 11:27 AMHave been quietly hoovering up quite a few Marlin in recent months.  Done pretty well so far.  NTA has been about $1.01 for a few weeks now and the US tech sector went gangbusters this week with Nivida's result which itself went up 16% in one day).  Other tech stocks that are in MLN's portfolio involved with A.I. in one way or another caught the tailwind, and I am expecting a reasonable NTA increase next week.  Now I have quite a few I might build up a spreadsheet model and report NAV from time to time.    A decent number on offer at 99 cents and NAV at a guess is about $1.03-$1.04 at present. I'd buy them myself if I didn't have a sizeable holding already.  I'm expecting another Marlin warrant issue in the next few months.  Opportunity knocks?  You be the judge.

Actual NAV just announced.  MLN NAV as at 27/2/24 - $1.0426.  Very nice.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/427128

Another strong month for Marlin in February, up 8%.  I have built a substantial position in recent months and believe this is great buying at around a 5% discount to NAV at present and gives broad exposure to the US tech sector including A.I.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/427726/414623.pdf

Latest NAV at just on $1.05 and was trading at 98 cents yesterday.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/427990/414930.pdf
6.6% discount to last reported NAV at 98 cents.  Note: They can buy-back their own shares at a 6% discount to NAV, (and have been doing so recently for KFL and BRM), so the current share price, (subject to future movements in NAV), appears to be well underpinned.
Disc: Added more at 98 cents yesterday. 

Interesting share that one with exposure to tech and other industries...

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MLN/dividends

As a matter of interest have brm KFL or MLN changed their benchmarks over the years

Not that I'm aware of mate.  Marlin gives quite a good exposure to the US tech sector including several stocks that are benefiting from the A.I. revolution.
Keen to increase my holding over a period of time to circa 25-30%, (currently about 16% portfolio allocation).

Posted the below today in the HGH thread which got me thinking about Marlin / other FF LICs

QuoteNever invested in the LICs as prefer to go directly in ASX stocks and access US etfs directly via IBKR. Wrong thread but one thing I always wondered about was the discount to NTA seemingly representing value. I would have thought given the LICs come with high forever mgmt fees a discount should apply to them to represent the present value of perpetual mgmt fees. If doing this you'd need to addback any provision for mgmt & performance fees as you'd double count one years worth of fees. Sorry off topic I know

This will probably go down like a bag of sick with the vested interests but I hope an interesting muse none the less.

I've long been curious about the notion that a LIC's listed share price discount to reported NAV represents fantastic value - something of a steal or an arbitrage. LIC's hold a number of shares multiplied by prevailing spot price - together with some deminimus other balance sheet bits and bobs - give a readily available NAV. But I reckon LICs ought to trade at a sizeable discount to their reported NAV, but in reality trade at a premium to their true economic NAV.

Marlin premium to true NAV.jpg

Over the last 5 years total corporate costs (overwhelming comprised of Fisher Fund mgmt. and performance fees) have averaged $3.86m. If one rolled them forward into perpetuity, and generously did not grow those fees at inflation, gave them an after tax benefit of 28%, and discounted those cashflows (@ tried and trusty true 10%) back to a net present value of the external manager, that would be $29.1m reduction in NAV or 13cps. Given Marlin has now accrued for a performance fee I have put my finger in the air of $1.5m and deducted that from the $29m as it would double count the current years expense.

When an institution of research analyst analyses the sum of the parts of a business like Infratil or other conglomerate, they will come up with a value for each operating subsidiary, and then capitalise the value of corporate costs or non ascribable costs. That's totally analogous to this situation. My BOE NPV of corporate costs - expressed as a PE multiple - is about 10.5x. Probably too low as I'd imagine they do grow slowly over time (say half a percent pa).

The last NZX release (13/3/24) showed NAV of $1.0574 - and the SP on close was 98cps - a notional discount of 7.3%. The punters love it - what value!

However if you take the reported NAV - and deduct the 13cps value of corporate costs - the share price on the 13th of March was actually at a 5.6% premium to the adjusted economic NAV.

Punters will argue how great the returns are above their benchmark - the reality is the appropriate benchmark is the S&P500 and my VOO returns (a S&P500 ETF) smash Marlins. Its sort of strange that they have a listed benchmark but charge the performance fee on the change in the (90 bank bill rate plus 5%) + GST. PLUS Mgmt fees of 1.25% -  yikes!

So marlin holders are paying a premium to in my opinion its true NAV. What for? Steady quarterly dividends (which in reality are just reshuffling capital as dividends - one could easily just sell x% number of shares quarterly to achieve a cash inflow), ability to receive warrants (but for those who talking about their 'back in the day' killing on warrants you can't really include the warrants purchased on mkt as that is a discrete and separate transaction - probably should only include those received as part of your direct holding), and PIE structure. People will talk about diversification and active mgmt - but you can get diversification for a fraction of the price - and the reality is a generic S&P500 beats marlin total shareholder returns.

Sorry I am probably being too forthright in my views off a wee bit of work. I do sort of regard LIC's as a dinosaur in terms of a product - rightly or wrongly I sort of regard it as a product for people heavily focused on dividend income (and not total shareholder returns), wedded to clunky old NZ DIY platforms that can't trade AU or ROW equities, and are tentative to try all the new and easy to use platforms to access ETFs or other active managers, let alone using platforms like Interactive Brokers to cut out all the middle men and access products at the absolute lowest costs. And there is nothing wrong with that...the motivations are good, an investor has a set of priorities (regular cashflow, diversification, overseas investments etc) and Marlin is their comfort level rather than doing a whole bunch of other stuff - there is nothing wrong with that. There is a lot to be said for investing into financial products that you know and trust even if they may not be efficient. I may have missed some other stuff but looking at sharesight at my VOO returns vs what could have been had I invested into marlin I'm not sure it'd change my perspective.

re the para above - I've heard it on the other channel - LICs and Smartshares ETFs are PIEs so you don't have any FIF tax. That's a complete mistruth. True, in the hands of the individual holder their isn't a FIF tax requirement, but both the LIC and Smartshare fund ARE paying FIF tax at the entity level and then comes to you - so a wash. But even worse, NZ domiciled funds (including Marlin) ALWAYS use the fair dividend rate to calculate their FIF liability. They have no option to apply the de minimus for comparative value method which hurts if there is a down year (CV you can get away with no liability).

anyway. food for thought. not an expert, not advice, but hopefully contributing something worthwhile for healthy, honest discussion.

that's a fair and reasonable view, however you don't cover the three reasons I am invested in Fisher funds, BRM to be more precise, broad exposure to a market place (ASX) outside the very limited NZX, the broad number of investments rather than just a single or handful of companies, which means one should not experience significant losses if a good investment turns sour, and most importantly for me I don't have to put in the many hours researching individual stocks, to determine risk versus reward and true value of shares, don't get me wrong I have looked into BRM's holdings but not to the detail I would have on a single share investment.
Happy to pay fee's and performance bonuses and sit back collect the DRP for 10 years with a simple goal of 8% compounding net returns as this is a great way to build wealth.
Also have managed funds with Milford in their Active growth fund and Australian growth fund, also a sizable investment in Regal RF1 fund (ASX), for same reasons as BRM, that's achieved 18% per year for the time it has been going (5 years). I encourage others to look into their alternative investing strategies which includes shorting and mineral royalties.     

Quote from: snapiti on Mar 27, 2024, 09:00 AMthat's a fair and reasonable view, however you don't cover the three reasons I am invested in Fisher funds, BRM to be more precise, broad exposure to a market place (ASX) outside the very limited NZX, the broad number of investments rather than just a single or handful of companies, which means one should not experience significant losses if a good investment turns sour, and most importantly for me I don't have to put in the many hours researching individual stocks, to determine risk versus reward and true value of shares, don't get me wrong I have looked into BRM's holdings but not to the detail I would have on a single share investment.
Happy to pay fee's and performance bonuses and sit back collect the DRP for 10 years with a simple goal of 8% compounding net returns as this is a great way to build wealth.
Also have managed funds with Milford in their Active growth fund and Australian growth fund, also a sizable investment in Regal RF1 fund (ASX), for same reasons as BRM, that's achieved 18% per year for the time it has been going (5 years). I encourage others to look into their alternative investing strategies which includes shorting and mineral royalties.     

Totally. I've increasingly been lifting my exposure to passive / managed funds for the same reasons as you. Many moons tried picking US shares and dont think I was particularly good at it and I didnt want to spend anymore time of them. Plus I find it takes out the emotion - if the market goes up or down - thats just what a market does. If one of the shares I invested time researching does poorly it can be a sour experience. So kinda takes out the emotion of it, for me anyway. 

It also was a good sense check on my pride. Like if I spent a bunch of time picking a few shares that went up say 20% (or 10% adjusted including my invariable turd investment) and was thinking I was clever with my picks, but then I look over and saw some millennial who had double my return simply because they invested in SPY, well turns out I wasnt so clever after all.

yep agree it does take out some of the emotion side of investing, especially the up's and downs of individual stocks

Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Mar 26, 2024, 11:04 PMBut I reckon LICs ought to trade at a sizeable discount to their reported NAV, but in reality trade at a premium to their true economic NAV.

My view is that it all depends upon whether they are beating the benchmark index or not.  Marlin's performance is here https://marlin.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/  If they're beating it after fees and tax I would argue no discount is warranted, in fact you could even make the case a premium is warranted for consistent strong outperformance...more on that later in relation to Barramundi.

Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Mar 26, 2024, 11:04 PMPunters will argue how great the returns are above their benchmark - the reality is the appropriate benchmark is the S&P500 and my VOO returns (a S&P500 ETF) smash Marlins.

Where your thinking is a bit astray here is that Marlin is an international fund and has investments outside of North America.  I have little doubt that based on your experience and from a certain point in time when you invested in that ETF, you feel your performance exceeds Marlin but nevertheless they have stated their performance on their website relative to the index and I have no reason to doubt their claim.  Their fund is tech heavy and its worthwhile noting the Nasdaq has actually done a round trip to nowhere in the last 2 years.  Also they have experienced tough times with their China investments in recent years, like everyone else.  Whether you look at the last 5 years or the 5 years before that they have outperformed their benchmark index after fees and tax.

Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Mar 26, 2024, 11:04 PMHowever if you take the reported NAV - and deduct the 13cps value of corporate costs - the share price on the 13th of March was actually at a 5.6% premium to the adjusted economic NAV.

Your viewpoint is not new by any means has been well espoused, mainly by a lot of brokers anxious to direct client funds into their own funds management system with their expensive fees lol.  Many LIC's do trade at a material discount to NAV and it's warranted because all they're doing is matching or in some cases underperforming an ETF with their fees on top of that. 

Comparing Marlin to an S&P500 ETF is comparing apples with Nashi pears because a lot of their investments are NASDAQ type or outside America.  Better to compare Barramundi with the ASX200 to get a clearer view of their outperformance.  https://barramundi.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/
I note in the last 5 years since Robbie Urquart took over as manager they have generated 14.6% average annualized NAV performance after fees, including performance fees and tax, compared to the ASX200 which has gone up an average of 9.2% hedged 70% to the $N.Z dollar.

I fact checked this off Jarden's website and note the ASX200 was just on 6100 five years ago and is now just on 7800, a 28% increase over five years for those investing in an Australian ETF. 

Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Mar 26, 2024, 11:04 PM.the motivations are good, an investor has a set of priorities (regular cashflow, diversification, overseas investments etc) and Marlin is their comfort level rather than doing a whole bunch of other stuff - there is nothing wrong with that. There is a lot to be said for investing into financial products that you know and trust even if they may not be efficient.

Going to a Kingfish group annual meeting you see a sea of grey and white hair, I really fit in very well these days lol.  Most people are not sophisticated professional investors like you and I and are happy to go with an investment vehicle that gives them a one stop shop for part of their funds that provides significant international diversification to their portfolio.  For most its about supplementing their superannuation with additional income so they lead a "choices" lifestyle in their retirement years.  Most people I know want to go with a well-respected and trusted financial institution and Fishers are one of N.Z.'s largest.

Sadly I have seen a lot of instances in my career with people approaching retirement who have very little or nothing saved.  The 8% tax free dividends in shareholders hands can make a real difference to people's enjoyment level and life in their retirement years and that's what I especially enjoy seeing.  Even as little as $100K gives $8,000 per year and to a couple existing on National superannuation alone is the difference between merely existing and having some money to enjoy going out with their friends and family for cheap treats.  Simple tactics for people with noting saved for retirement like trading down to a smaller or a regional house can free up hundreds of thousands which if invested into a fund that pays 8% tax free can make a real difference to people's lifestyle in their retirement years.
Obviously for people fortunate enough to have say $1m invested $80,000 per annum tax free on top of their super gives them a very comfortable retirement lifestyle with a lot of money to enjoy travel, expensive hobbies and money for whatever other choices around discretionary spending they want to make.

Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Mar 26, 2024, 11:04 PMre the para above - I've heard it on the other channel - LICs and Smartshares ETFs are PIEs so you don't have any FIF tax.

Yes they do all the work for you with FIF and pay it on shareholders behalf.  Some people who make direct investments overseas have to pay their accountants thousands of dollars per annum to make all these calculations for them...ask me how I know lol

I have a long history with Barramundi and the warrants are an integral part of the attraction to me.  I am fortunate to have the skills to value them and take advantage of any mispriced opportunities which adds to the attraction from my point of view.  That advantage combined with their 5.4% per annum average ASX200 index outperformance over the last 5 years, honestly its simply not worth my time to try and beat that sort of outperformance myself with direct Australian investment.  Time is valuable and frankly I'd rather take my boat out more or walk the dog more often than thrash around endlessly with investment analysis on the ASX trying to beat that level of market outperformance.

Horses for courses...it's not for everyone, but it really suits me, especially now as I am rapidly approaching full retirement and replacing practice income with dividend income and want to do a lot less investment analysis work in the years ahead.

Good stuff Basil. Makes sense to me.
Still reckon the true NAV is ~13cps lower than the reported NAV and it trades at a premium, but likewise acknowledge a lot of holders would be / are comfortable with that due to the convenience factor and other bits you raise. anyway, that's all from me.

an aside, sharesight makes it super easy to calculate the optimal FIF strategy taking into account all the overs and unders in ones FIF exposed portfolio. my tax accountant hates it because I do the work and send it to them which they obviously double check to see if its right but can't charge me the fat fees on (that part) of my return. still somehow wind up paying a fortune.

Happy birthday Kingfish ..... 20 yrs

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428684

Kingfish Limited proudly announces its 20th anniversary of being a listed company this month. Since 2004, the company has been committed to providing competitive investment returns for its shareholders.

Over this period, Kingfish has navigated through numerous share market conditions and has generated the following annualised returns since inception:
• Total shareholder return* of 9.4% per year;
• Adjusted NAV return** of 9.9% per year; and
• Gross performance return*** of 13.1% per year.

These compare to the annualised S&P/NZX 50 index return**** of 7.9% per year over the same period.

Well done to the team at Kingfish.  Worth noting that even low-cost ETF's are not free, so KFL have covered their management and performance fees well and truly and provided decent outperformance over and above the index and even better outperformance relative to a low cost ETF.  This is why I respectfully disagree with Fiordland Moose's contention that the NPV of future corporate costs should come off their NAV.  Further, 20 years is a really decent period of time to substantiate my viewpoint.  You can currently buy this level of outperformance for about a 7% discount to NAV.

Marlin NAV as at 26 March 2024 $1.0674.  98 cents is an 8.2% discount and on top of that we've had a very strong day on 27th on the US markets.  Close to a 9% discount to NAV at this point at 98 cents by my reckoning. Too good an opportunity to pass up, just topped up with more @ 98 cents.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/428789/415848.pdf

Very good chance of another free warrant issue in the next few months in my opinion.

Reflected on some of the comments above and found a bit of time post kids nighttime routine to do a slightly deeper dig.

QuoteWorth noting that even low-cost ETF's are not free

True that. But VOO's MER is 3bps, or 0.03%, so not really worth while doing the same analysis that I did for Marlin, eh?! Marlin by way of reference charge a base management fee of 1.25%, and still have fund operating costs and performance fees on top of that. Total Marlin fund NAV today was $227.92m. If one accepts the 5 year average total expenses of $3.587m (and think you'd need to do some mental gymnastics not to given in some years it pays a performance fee and some years it doesnt), that gives a MER of around 1.69% - or roughly 56x VOOs management fee.

Saw on a different FF thread that FF LIC's historical discount to NTA traditionally pretty small - thus mkt does not price in the mgmt fee component or my belief. Yup, I'd say that's true. And that's another reason why Marlin's total shareholder return underperforms the S&P500 (or in my case VOO) as they are paying an economic premium (per my previous analysis) for worse overall return.

QuoteComparing Marlin to an S&P500 ETF is comparing apples with Nashi pears because a lot of their investments are NASDAQ type or outside America

Of the 21 stocks listed below, 17 are S&P 500 constituents. Marlin's top 5 representing 35% of the fund are all S&P500.  Of the tech stocks you allude to, all but 1 (Tencent) are S&P500 constituents, with all Marlins big other tech holdings (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Saleforce, netflix, etc) certainly on the S&P500.
https://marlin.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-holdings/
So its basically a concentrated S&P500 fund, with different weights, higher management fees, that have produced worse returns (per below).

QuoteI have little doubt that based on your experience and from a certain point in time when you invested in that ETF, you feel your performance exceeds Marlin but nevertheless they have stated their performance on their website relative to the index and I have no reason to doubt their claim.  Their fund is tech heavy and its worthwhile noting the Nasdaq has actually done a round trip to nowhere in the last 2 years.

So I believe it's pretty well established the appropriate benchmark for Marlin is VOO, regardless of Marlin's self assigned "benchmarks".  used the sharesight share checker and dropped in ALL the available dates to do a total returns analysis (capital gains, dividends, currency - ie Sharesight assumes a purchase of VOO at the prevailing FX and what it is now). Haven't fiddled with any numbers and only goes back 10 years as VOO wasn't launched until like 2010 (and 14 years sadly wasn't an option).

      Marlin     VOO
L10Y  8.39%   16.10%
L5Y    11.38%   18.0%
L2Y    (4.18%)   17.63%
L1Y    26.10%   39.18%
L6M    12.71%   23.36%
L3M    8.36%   16.97%
L1M    2.89%   7.14%

So yeah I think the performance delta is very clear. There are some caveats to the above. Marlin has an inefficient FIF tax structure in that it always must pay the FDR tax (regardless of circumstance). An individual holder investing into VOO directly whose aggregate FIF shares never exceeded 50k wouldn't have to and those returns would be right. For a larger holder, they would in most years have to pay FIF tax, and could choose between the FDR and CV methods (and one other I forget). In a downyear the taxpayer could use CV, or FDR where it suited. That comes down to individual circumstance, but even for a large holder, VOO's outperformance is such that the FIF tax really isn't going move the needle in terms of closing the gap and I'm not going to waste my time doing the math.

There are lots of benefits to Marlin as Basil talks to but they are on the softer side of things, from my perspective.

Now going forwards - that's interesting. I've been exploring equal weighted S&P500 indices as traditionally (pre the last few years) they have outperformed the quoted index. The S&P500's outperformance relative to the equal weighted index now the greatest ever, and historically after a year or two of outperformance, things tend to revert back. But the ironically part of wanting to invest into the S&P500 is I don't have to try to be smarter or dumber or take a different strategy to the market (I want the mkt to decide for me) - electing a wholesale different weighting is doing just that, and who knows maybe the market could be right with the whole AI revolution and magic 7? I certainly don't know.

A report on the equal weighted index below from June 2023 - bit dated, but topical. Sadly, MERs for equal weighted ETFs are higher than the mcap weighted ETFs, but compare favourably to smartshare equal weighted costs.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-more-equal-than-others-20-years-of-the-sp-500-equal-weight-index.pdf

Don't mean to poo poo Marlin (and not familiar with any other FF product) - I understand the benefits and think its a great exposure outside the NZX - but I think it an honest, eye opening comparison of what it purports to be vs what else is available in the same swimming lane.

I'm not going to double check your figures but it's important to realise that the Fisher Funds group calculate their performance based on the NAV movement + the 8% dividends and they assume you reinvest those dividends at the 3% discount, + the net value of warrants issued . Share sight will not have picked up those two factors which renders your comparison, flawed.

I think the recent announcement by Kingfish in terms of their performance over the last 20 years answers the question of whether they earn their fees as that removes any argument about whether the NZX50 is a fair benchmark for their Kingfish listed fund.  As mentioned recently, I have a much longer history with Barramundi and their market outperformance after fees and tax of 5.4% per annum average is nothing short of brilliant.  Definitely something to toast at their annual meeting where, by the way, they put on a very good lunch each year.

It has to be said, I'm not fond of the methodology they use to calculate their performance fees.  It should be on index outperformance.  That said, they are the only fund manager I know that has a reducing base management fee, (reduces as low as 0.75% per annum) if they underperform.

Marlin have had some issues with poor stock selection of risky banks and Chinese companies in the past, (their 3 year performance reflects that) but I think their current portfolio looks pretty good to me and is well positioned to ride the A.I. revolution.  I note they are up just on 30% in the last year.  https://marlin.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/

I first bought in decent volume at 86 cents in early December and together with the 3.69 cps in dividends since then and the 14 cent share price appreciation am up 20.6% since, on my original purchase, (I have added more this year).  I noted this morning on CNBC, if my recall is any good, the S&P500 is up just on 11% year to date in 2024 so it's fair to say I am a very happy camper, although, its early days.

The Kingfish group is set up to attract income investors.  Those looking for growth such as yourself, may prefer to look elsewhere.
My approach is that if I can buy into Barramundi or Marlin, (I paddle my own canoe in N.Z. and have only a very small holding in Kingfish) at a ~ 7% discount to NAV my return becomes not 8% tax free but 8% / 0.93 = 8.60% and then taking the shares in lieu at a 3% discount this becomes an effective tax-free yield of 8.60 / 0.97 = 8.87%.  On top of that are two things, firstly the value of the free warrants issued and the value I create for myself with looking for opportunities when they are mispriced.  Just sticking with the 8.87% net yield, that alone to me is worth a yield of 8.87 / 0.61 = 14.54% gross, (it helps keep me out of the 39% tax bracket so I have used the marginal tax rate of 39% for income over $180K).

I find that extremely attractive.  $100K at 8.87% net is obviously $8,870 tax free.  Multiply that $100K by whatever factor you can, or feel comfortable with, and obviously this is a very powerful income generating investment vehicle for those with significant means.

On the equal weight v standard S&P500 thing, according to some experts if you take out the magnificent 7, (is it 6 now that Tesla are looking less robust ?) the S&P is only on a forward PE of about 15, about 21 including.  Anyone's guess which methodology will provide better gains going forward.

We live in a very low growth economy here in New Zealand with very limited exposure on the NZX to high growth tech companies.  In my opinion it's really important no matter which investment vehicle or methodology you use, to invest a significant portion of your capital outside N.Z. 
I think I've articulated why Marlina and Barramundi are better suited to me in my early 60's looking to replace working income with passive income.   
I also really like the returns and optionality the warrants confer as do all the other investors I have spoken with at annual meetings from time to time.
Why invest in Marlin.  https://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/why-invest-in-marlin/

In conclusion from my perspective, investment in decent numbers into Barramundi has been very rewarding over the years and I am confident going forward I will enjoy the same experience with Marlin, certainly the early returns have been very encouraging.  I don't want to be doing much investment analysis in my 70's and certainly no FIF calculations then lol  The one stop shop Kingfish provide with these funds are ideal for me....more time catching real kingfish from my boat or walking my dog and less time with investment analysis, frankly, what's not to like lol.
I might add another fund manager into the mix in due course as well as some emerging markets exposure as interest rates start to decline, we'll see.

QuoteSo yeah I think the performance delta is very clear. There are some caveats to the above. Marlin has an inefficient FIF tax structure in that it always must pay the FDR tax (regardless of circumstance). An individual holder investing into VOO directly whose aggregate FIF shares never exceeded 50k wouldn't have to and those returns would be right. For a larger holder, they would in most years have to pay FIF tax, and could choose between the FDR and CV methods (and one other I forget). In a downyear the taxpayer could use CV, or FDR where it suited. That comes down to individual circumstance, but even for a large holder, VOO's outperformance is such that the FIF tax really isn't going move the needle in terms of closing the gap and I'm not going to waste my time doing the math.

P.S. As noted above you haven't calculated the performance correctly as you've completely glossed over the value of the free warrants.  You're also overlooking that some people pay a lot of money in compliance costs with FIF calculations.
Its a shame no government have reviewed the de-minimus level of $50K for FIF compliance since it was set a very long time ago, ($100K if split with your partner).  That might have been a pretty meaningful sum of money for foreign investment way back when it was set, but it's certainly not these days.  That forces a lot of people with even moderate means into considerable compliance costs which is pretty unfortunate....not complaining from my perspective.

New Warrant Issue for Marlin.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/430211/417466.pdf

My mate Michael says - I guess clients will decide whether they want to continue to do business a firm that has kept in a senior role someone with such evidently poor impulse control


https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350293132/fisher-funds-manager-revealed-man-acquitted-auckland-neighbourly-scrap

Quote from: winner (n) on May 29, 2024, 09:54 AMMy mate Michael says - I guess clients will decide whether they want to continue to do business a firm that has kept in a senior role someone with such evidently poor impulse control


https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350293132/fisher-funds-manager-revealed-man-acquitted-auckland-neighbourly-scrap

Having experienced ignorant bad neighbour's myself, overall very long period, and can also say it is not hard to snap eventually....anyone even responding to this report without knowing the full facts is a w$#%ker IMO

You could say after much provocation he simply Snapped, eh Snapper, (sorry, couldn't resist the word play).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432510

Kingfish Limited (Kingfish) wishes to advise all Kingfish Warrant Holders (KFLWH) that the final exercise price of the Kingfish warrants is $1.26.

Further details regarding the Kingfish warrants, which have an exercise date of 26 July 2024, will be emailed/mailed to all warrant holders before the end of June 2024.

Quote from: snapiti on May 29, 2024, 01:33 PMHaving experienced ignorant bad neighbour's myself, overall very long period, and can also say it is not hard to snap eventually....anyone even responding to this report without knowing the full facts is a w$#%ker IMO

Hmm - so, this bully jumped over the fence onto the neighbours property (whom he first annoyed with playing the macarena), did beat up the neighbour, damaged (or destroyed the eyesight of the neighbour he attacked) and then got acquitted for "self defence"?

Anybody playing the Macarena loud enough that neighbours suffer should be shot, even if they don't double down by beating afterwards the sh*t out of the neighbours they first molested.

Hard to believe what they call justice in this country. I guess it seems we are great in locking up innocent people for decades (Banes, Ellis, Pora, ...) , but on the other hand we discharge dangerous bullies without any self control injuring their neighbours. I have seen bad neighbours as well, but our justice system clearly seems to trump bad neighbours, it is a sad joke.

Not sure, though whether any of that would change my investment behaviour, though - I am clearly over Fisher Funds (but for other reasons than employing people without impulse control as investment managers).

Ssssooo how did buying the KFLWH's work out for holders? ( KFL trading last Friday at around $1.20 v exercise price of $1.26?? )

I see KFL is trading at a 10% discount to NAV.....seems high.

Quote from: Left Field on Jun 10, 2024, 10:13 AMSsssooo how did buying the KFLWH's work out for holders? ( KFL trading last Friday at around $1.20 v exercise price of $1.26?? )

I guess if you bought a couple of hundred @ 1.26 it would be cheaper because no brokerage cost

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/434719

Wow, 12% discount to NTA at $1.21!

This is such a great opportunity I feel like Oliver Twist with my begging bowl held out at $1.21, please Sir, can I have some more?

Basil, why do you suppose there is such a discount to net assets? Any idea what level of discount / premium Kingfisher has traded at historically? Thanks

Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 18, 2024, 10:06 PMBasil, why do you suppose there is such a discount to net assets? Any idea what level of discount / premium Kingfisher has traded at historically? Thanks

here's what the discount/premium has looked last 10 years

IMG_5862.png

Opportunity abounds

They say with rates declining etc etc NZX to take off ...and KFL will follow

Let's say +30% increase in NAV by end of next year and punters get really excited and KFL gets rewarded with that 10% premium again

Share price about 2 bucks ...and you've collected divies along the way ....and probably have some valuable warrants to boot

Awesome work Winner, thank you.

The 15% discount to NTA is about right to reflect the NPV of the high fees/costs in my view. Especially with KFL holdings which are easy for NZ investors to hold directly with no fees and minimal tax admin.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 19, 2024, 08:17 AMhere's what the discount/premium has looked last 10 years

IMG_5862.png

thank winner could you please post SAME chart for BRM

so KFL now offering the highest discount to NAV it ever has, interesting, BRM offering about 12% @ 70cps, also fairly high historically

Buying BRM warrants provides about 15% discount to NTA at warrant price of 4 cents plus exercise price of around 63 cents. Buybacks driving up head share price but not the warrants.

Quote from: Mos on Jul 19, 2024, 09:08 AMThe 15% discount to NTA is about right to reflect the NPV of the high fees/costs in my view. Especially with KFL holdings which are easy for NZ investors to hold directly with no fees and minimal tax admin.

Some have made that argument in the past and it's an argument that's not without some merit.
I think the starting point for any consideration around that is that if you want to invest in a PIE or managed stock picking fund that picks stocks, (rather than an index tracking fund), there are always going to be costs that go with that.  Discovery fund for example has a 1.2% annual base management fee plus a 20% performance fee for performance over the index, which seems egregiously high, but I have put serious money there based on the obvious skill level of the fund managers and their performance to date.

Yes you certainly can replicate their holdings quite easily, absolutely no argument with that whatsoever but that presupposes you have the patience and internal discipline to not want to engage in manipulating their stocks picks at least to some degree and also to hold each and every one of their picks over the long term.

Here's how I look at it.  I have done a deep dive 120 point monthly 10 year statistical analysis on Barramundi which shows an average level of discount of only 0.5%, and that minor discount figure may be somewhat overstated due to the shares frequently carrying slightly dilutionary warrants on a regular basis, so I am just going to go with its normal for them to trade at NAV.

I see this group as income investments.  The 8% tax free PIE distributions are extremely attractive and appear to be sustainable.  If you crop out the dramatic loss initially incurred by BRM just after they launched before the GFC, all these share prices of this group have at least held their capital value.

Buying at a large discount, (I will stick with the 12% on offer at present with KFL for the sake of this comment but also note attractive discounts on offer with Barramundi and Marlin at present), confers not only the higher chance the level of discount will normalize over time leading to outsized capital gains but also confers, while holding, an outsized dividend return.
Dividends are paid based on 2% per quarter of average NTA not the share price so 8% if bought at a 12% discount becomes an effective net yield of 8 / 0.88 = 9.09%.  That can be further enhanced by the 3% dividend reinvestment discount to become 9.37% net (9.09% / 0.97)

For taxpayers on a 33% marginal tax rate 9.37 % net is worth 13.99% gross, (9.37 / 0.67) let's call it 14% gross.
For those on a 39% tax rate its worth 15.36% gross.  These are extremely lucrative gross effective yields in anyone's language.

Sure, there's other ways to skin a cat but those gross yields are extremely attractive, especially in a falling interest rate environment and especially also in conjunction with the prospects of outsized gains with the level of share price discount normalizing over time.

You also get a very good feed at the annual meeting, for what that's worth but I enjoy it and catching up with some people there.  (Yeah I know shareholders are in effect paying for it and there's no such thing as a free lunch, but I still enjoy it whenever I have the spare time to attend.)

The other thing I noticed in my 10 year deep dive analysis on Barramundi share price relative to NTA is that interest rates are very low, the shares are more likely to trade either at a premium to NTA or at least at par.  We're headed towards are much lower interest rate environment over the next 2 years in my opinion.

Look, to be fair, I do acknowledge that this group traded at an unprecedented premium to NTA within that 10 year analysis I did when interest rates dropped to unprecedented level's.  Retired investors confronted with 1% term deposit rates at banks were in effect forced to consider alternatives and that's possibly what drove that period of premium.  That highly unusual event may never recur so I guess you could argue my ten-year analysis encapsulating that timeframe somewhat understates the level of normal discount.  Maybe excluding that highly unusual "premium" period a 3-4% discount is normal and about right.  That's how I see it and my 2 cents worth.

Some good perspectives their Basil. Thanks for sharing. For me a 15% discount to NTA when it comes around balances out the fee/cost structure, with BRM and MLN of interest for the easy international exposure. For NZ stocks I prefer to invest direct.

I think 2-3% felt pretty typical so I'm sure you are about right saying 3-4% from your analysis excluding a very outlying period of time. I like these for the PIE status, 2% a quarter based on NAV but issued at 3% discount to price and the regular warrants that you can play, hold, sell or exercise depending on your holdings needs. I have not really thought about the true effect of buying at a deep NAV discount price and returns at your tax rate. 15.36% is a nice return!

Quite right thedabsman, the warrants add quite a bit of spice and opportunity.

KFL release their first Climate Statement today.

WOW!!!

70 pages of mumbo jumbo gobbldy gook corporate speak.

And not one single word that will make one bit of difference to the climate.

What an utter waste of holders funds.

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 26, 2024, 08:57 AMKFL release their first Climate Statement today.

WOW!!!

70 pages of mumbo jumbo gobbldy gook corporate speak.

And not one single word that will make one bit of difference to the climate.

What an utter waste of holders funds.

As I have explained before, they don't have a choice. Complain to the government because they are the ones mandating it.

All this extra meaningless compliance bumpf is unfortunately a deterrent to listing small and medium sized companies on the NZX.

Quote from: Untamed on Jul 26, 2024, 09:06 AMAs I have explained before, they don't have a choice. Complain to the government because they are the ones mandating it.

I wasnt talking about choice. My point was the last sentence.

20 PERCENT IS THE old global investment MODEL. normaL.

DOS reports are a TOTAL wASTE of FUDS... FUNds....

Quote from: Minimoke on Jul 26, 2024, 09:15 AMI wasnt talking about choice. My point was the last sentence.

Yeah I understand that. Which is why, the only option any of us have as shareholders, is to point that out to the powers that be. I agree with you.

Total waste of time and money. It should have been a couple of A4 pages to comply with the requirement to carry it out.

Who is going to read it anyway?

Even marked as a price sensitive announcement FFS.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 19, 2024, 11:09 AMSome have made that argument in the past and it's an argument that's not without some merit.
I think the starting point for any consideration around that is that if you want to invest in a PIE or managed stock picking fund that picks stocks, (rather than an index tracking fund), there are always going to be costs that go with that.  Discovery fund for example has a 1.2% annual base management fee plus a 20% performance fee for performance over the index, which seems egregiously high, but I have put serious money there based on the obvious skill level of the fund managers and their performance to date.

Yes you certainly can replicate their holdings quite easily, absolutely no argument with that whatsoever but that presupposes you have the patience and internal discipline to not want to engage in manipulating their stocks picks at least to some degree and also to hold each and every one of their picks over the long term.

Here's how I look at it.  I have done a deep dive 120 point monthly 10 year statistical analysis on Barramundi which shows an average level of discount of only 0.5%, and that minor discount figure may be somewhat overstated due to the shares frequently carrying slightly dilutionary warrants on a regular basis, so I am just going to go with its normal for them to trade at NAV.

I see this group as income investments.  The 8% tax free PIE distributions are extremely attractive and appear to be sustainable.  If you crop out the dramatic loss initially incurred by BRM just after they launched before the GFC, all these share prices of this group have at least held their capital value.

Buying at a large discount, (I will stick with the 12% on offer at present with KFL for the sake of this comment but also note attractive discounts on offer with Barramundi and Marlin at present), confers not only the higher chance the level of discount will normalize over time leading to outsized capital gains but also confers, while holding, an outsized dividend return.
Dividends are paid based on 2% per quarter of average NTA not the share price so 8% if bought at a 12% discount becomes an effective net yield of 8 / 0.88 = 9.09%.  That can be further enhanced by the 3% dividend reinvestment discount to become 9.37% net (9.09% / 0.97)

For taxpayers on a 33% marginal tax rate 9.37 % net is worth 13.99% gross, (9.37 / 0.67) let's call it 14% gross.
For those on a 39% tax rate its worth 15.36% gross.  These are extremely lucrative gross effective yields in anyone's language.

Sure, there's other ways to skin a cat but those gross yields are extremely attractive, especially in a falling interest rate environment and especially also in conjunction with the prospects of outsized gains with the level of share price discount normalizing over time.

You also get a very good feed at the annual meeting, for what that's worth but I enjoy it and catching up with some people there.  (Yeah I know shareholders are in effect paying for it and there's no such thing as a free lunch, but I still enjoy it whenever I have the spare time to attend.)

The other thing I noticed in my 10 year deep dive analysis on Barramundi share price relative to NTA is that interest rates are very low, the shares are more likely to trade either at a premium to NTA or at least at par.  We're headed towards are much lower interest rate environment over the next 2 years in my opinion.

Look, to be fair, I do acknowledge that this group traded at an unprecedented premium to NTA within that 10 year analysis I did when interest rates dropped to unprecedented level's.  Retired investors confronted with 1% term deposit rates at banks were in effect forced to consider alternatives and that's possibly what drove that period of premium.  That highly unusual event may never recur so I guess you could argue my ten-year analysis encapsulating that timeframe somewhat understates the level of normal discount.  Maybe excluding that highly unusual "premium" period a 3-4% discount is normal and about right.  That's how I see it and my 2 cents worth.

thanks Basil I really appreciate you bothering to share your wisdom

Quote from: Mos on Jul 26, 2024, 09:14 AMAll this extra meaningless compliance bumpf is unfortunately a deterrent to listing small and medium sized companies on the NZX.

With all due respect, but I was under the illusion that people realise that climate reporting is part of the Paris agreements, which have been signed and ratified by 194 countries (including New Zealand) - basically by all countries but Iran, Yemen and Lybia.

If we want to play with the reminder of countries, we better oblige, or they won't play with us anymore.

Ignoring our international treaties would run us pretty fast into the economic abyss. Climate reporting is just one of the costs to stay in business. Anybody who wants to stay in business needs to do it.

What might be true is that so far not everybody has grasped how an effective and useful climate report would look like.

What companies basically have to do is:
1) Measure how much carbon pollution is caused by the activities of their organisation and
2) Define a plan to bring this pollution down to net Zero within the agreed time frame.

Does not sound that hard, isn't it - but I have to admit that it seems to be easier to find verbose but pointless plans than good ones.

However - is this really a discussion for the Fisher Fund thread?

yes off topic.... oopps but

international what?

there is no international order anymore ....

i bet if they did not produce these reports trade would go on as usual ....


does trade stop with china if all there companies dont conform?


not sure the blow back will be that big as russia china, iran ect dont care.. and will all of africa and middle east stop trading with NZ

dont think so...

Fishers are fund managers, not a listed company that can have any effect over emissions.
They should be exempt from compliance with this ESG crap.

Quote from: Basil on Jul 26, 2024, 01:21 PMFishers are fund managers, not a listed company that can have any effect over emissions.
They should be exempt from compliance with this ESG crap.

One would think so.

Quote from: snapiti on Jul 26, 2024, 11:29 AMthanks Basil I really appreciate you bothering to share your wisdom

You're most welcome mate. Hopefully a few others also backed up the truck on KFL at under $1.20
By doing so it was almost analogous to time travel.  You could buy a stake in NZX shares through KFL at prices prevailing before the rally, several days after the rally had commenced.

Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 26, 2024, 12:34 PMyes off topic.... oopps but

international what?

there is no international order anymore ....

i bet if they did not produce these reports trade would go on as usual ....


does trade stop with china if all there companies dont conform?


not sure the blow back will be that big as russia china, iran ect dont care.. and will all of africa and middle east stop trading with NZ

dont think so...

Sure, we certainly will be able to continue our amazing trade relationship with North Korea, Iraq, Iran (but probably not both, we would need to choose) and Russia (as long as it is run by Putler) if we don't care about our climate obligations, but I doubt that it will be as easy to continue trading with e.g. the European Union - or even the US if we ignore our commitments.

I invite you to read some of our more important trade agreements (e.g. with the EU) - they all refer to our obligations on climate change, and no doubt our competitors in these countries would notice if we try to wiggle out.

Here is one example:
https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/new-zealand/eu-new-zealand-agreement/factsheet-eu-new-zealand-trade-agreement-trade-and-sustainable-development_en#:~:text=Benefits%20of%20the%20EU%2DNew%20Zealand%20Free%20Trade%20Agreement&text=Includes%20binding%20and%20enforceable%20commitments,principles%20and%20rights%20at%20work.

But sure, the decision is easy - if we believe that Russia, North Korea and Iran will set the future economic agenda and that neither EU nor the US will matter anymore, than by all means - lets ignore our climate commitments.

Not sure though I would recommend that. Would you?

The more sensible decision would be to improve on our climate reporting. We don't need huge reports with meaningless content, but we do need companies and organisations which contribute in a meaningful way to the reduction of our carbon pollution.

off topic... really should not be on this thread .. short answer
 
RIGHT LETS TICK THE BOX ....

do you have anything to declare .... NO *** !!!!  .... off you bureaucratic  bastar s  **** 

one box , one tick ...

Kingfish annual meeting tomorrow at the usual place at 10.30.  I expect a nice lunch afterwards as usual.
I'm hoping to have the time to attend.

The part I can't wrap my head around, is how to think about inflation. For example the KFL share price has moved from 0.92 to 1.17 over the last 20 years. If you inflation adjusted the 0.92, it would be 1.52 - so there is a loss in value there, which is part of the trade off for the 8% i guess.

Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 07, 2024, 08:12 PMThe part I can't wrap my head around, is how to think about inflation. For example the KFL share price has moved from 0.92 to 1.17 over the last 20 years. If you inflation adjusted the 0.92, it would be 1.52 - so there is a loss in value there, which is part of the trade off for the 8% i guess.

It was a lot higher than that at various times during that 20 years. I paid $1.69 in July 2020. It was around $1.37 when I first bought in, back in 2016. I sold a few for $1.94 at one point, in 2021.

Seems like we will never see those prices again.

funds and there standings

https://www.interest.co.nz/investing/129098/kiwisaver-funds-under-management-reached-1108-billion-june-quarter-according-new

Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 07, 2024, 08:12 PMThe part I can't wrap my head around, is how to think about inflation. For example the KFL share price has moved from 0.92 to 1.17 over the last 20 years. If you inflation adjusted the 0.92, it would be 1.52 - so there is a loss in value there, which is part of the trade off for the 8% i guess.

Just look at them as you would at a bond paying 8%. You put 100% nominal in and you get 100% nominal out (plus interest and yes, there will be some jitter on the principle depending on how the annual interest relates to the OCR.

If you want capital conservation and / or appreciation you better pick shares without or with less dividends.

I guess at the end of the day a reasonable investment pays you on a long term average (several decades) roughly 8% pa (including inflation). Your choice whether you want the 8% in capital appreciation or in dividends or as a mix between both.

Of course - everybody will tell you about these amazing deals they had on a short term basis (and yes, some did, but this is not investment, but speculation plus luck) and forget to talk about the many flops they had concurrently averaging their gains out.

So - yes, if you want your 8% in dividends, than this could be one of your low maintenance investment choices. 

Does anyone know, the returns they quote, are they inclusive of the management fees?

https://kingfish.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Kingfish-Newsletter-June-2024.pdf
Adjusted NAV return is after fees 5.4% average for the last 5 years is not flash but includes more than 4 years of the insipid performance the NZX50 has put in since Covid.  The gross performance is before fees, 7.3%, NZX50 has averaged only 2.2% per annum in the last 5 years.

Today at the annual meeting they said they'd celebrated 20 years in March 2024 and had achieved an average annual return after fees of (and I am going off memory here), 10.3% after fees and beaten the NZX50 which had averaged a fraction over 8% per annum in that time.  Presentation materials from the ASM will be on their website and will have the exact figures.

I had a good chat with Matt Peek the investment manager after the meeting.  I was quite impressed.  He used to work at UBS alongside Julian Cook back in the day. He came across as very knowledgeable about the issues we discussed about several companies in their portfolio and a couple that presently aren't but one they are seriously interested in.    He is not impressed at all with the total fiasco that RYM has been in recent years but is reluctant to reduce their position further.

My sense is the fund is in safe hands under his leadership.  The current discount to NAV at 11% based on closing price today is right towards the high end of the range in recent years and looks like an opportunity to me and is at a higher level of discount than either BRM or MLN at present. 

I think they've done okay on the NZX over the last 5 years considering the appalling state of the N.Z. economy.  I am hopeful that returns will revert towards their long-term average of about 10% per annum going forward and the pressure comes off interest rates.
A good lunch was served as usual, and it was good to catch up with a couple of fellow investors there I knew.
Disc: I bought quite a few more yesterday at $1.21

Good report, thanks Basil...... FYI NBR's Tim Hunter has an article out today...

https://www.nbr.co.nz/hunters-corner/absolutely-fabulous-fees/

It's behind the paywall but seems he is not impressed.... particularly with the $40 mill in fees.

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 09, 2024, 10:02 AMGood report, thanks Basil...... FYI NBR's Tim Hunter has an article on Fisher out today...

https://www.nbr.co.nz/hunters-corner/absolutely-fabulous-fees/

It's behind the paywall but seems he is not impressed.... particularly with the $40 mill in fees.

Leftie. . That article is about Milford

I think he knows that.  Fishers defended their fee structure a while back
https://www.nbr.co.nz/guest-opinion/fisher-funds-right-of-reply/
My view is that as long as their funds are outperforming the relevant index, (I am not particularly keen on arbitrary OCR% + 5% being the benchmark) then they have earned their fees.
Marlin haven't been going well this year.  I have been pretty disappointed and have acted on that, substantially reducing my position in the recent months.

Out of curiosity I had a look at Kingfish financial statements for FY24. Quite interesting.

Basically this is what happened over the year -

Sold $74m of investments and bought $53m

Received $7m of divies and interest

So net 'trading activity' was a net income of $28m

Cash expenses were $5m (mainly to Fisher HQ)

Paid out $23m in cash as divies (another $13m paid by DRP) and spent best part of $1m buying their own shares

So that's the Kingfish money go round

And at the end of the  year the investment portfolio was $453m which was the same as the beginning of year ....even though they recorded a change in fair value of $16m

Can't help thinking that The Style Council were very perceptive -

Watch your money-go-round; watch your money-go-round
But I just can't help being cynical
Watch your money-go-round; watch your money-go-round
Do like I say, make me wonderful

Just as a further interesting anecdote, KFL closed at an NTA of $1.464 on Friday v a share price of just $1.26.  This is a 14% discount and about the highest in a decade.  Is such a huge discount warranted or is any discount warranted?
Well, looking at their 5-year performance they have comprehensively beaten the market with a NAV adjusted net return after fees, and keep in mind this is a PIE so no tax is payable on this return, 7.5% per annum net, 9.3% gross before fees compared to the NZX50 index up an average of 2.6%
Kingfish since inception over 20 years ago said at their most recent annual meeting, they have made just over 10% net per annum after fees v just on 8% for the NZX50.  I think they have more than covered their fees and done a satisfactory job or reasonable returns over time.
https://kingfish.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Kingfish-Newsletter-September-2024.pdf

I know the 5-year NZX50 average has been lackluster but 2025 could be a good year with interest rates falling.   I don't think in any way whatsoever is this decade high discount to NTA warranted.  I bought a few more this week as a discounted way to take broad market exposure to the NZX50 for an uplift in 2025.  Next quarterly tax-free dividend from KFL is due before Christmas.  See my recent post in the Barramundi thread, post#438, for the effective annualized gross dividend when you are buying at this level of discount.  Surely an effective yield of 15% gross is highly attractive in a falling interest rate environment!

Marlin on average over the last 5 years have not quite covered their fees and have slightly underperformed. 
https://marlin.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Marlin-Newsletter-September-2024.pdf

Kingfish NTA $1.515 yesterday. 14% discount at $1.31.
I bought quite a few more yesterday.
Got a truckload of BRM already so just spreading my capital around a bit.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/443602/attachment/434018/443602-434018.pdf

Solid performance for November.  Gosh the NZX index in the 12 months to the end of November did okay for a most welcome change, up 15% but Kingfish had a huge outperformance after fees of 26%, that's ~ 11% outperformance for the year and not only that, their track record over 20 years is they have outperformed the NZX after fees by ~ 2%.  Trading at a ~ 10% discount to NTA and with a well proven track record of market outperformance after fund costs, there's a lot to like.  Adds considerable diversification to my NZX holdings too which is a good thing seeing as they're so concentrated.

As noted in posts above I have been hoovering up quite a few Kingfish in recent weeks / months.  Been trading at 12-14% discount to NAV, (currently just on 12%), which is close to a decade high and they have a well proven track record of beating the NZX50.  I think the NZ bourse should do okay next year and see the RBNZ needing to cut hard and fast in 2025, circa 200 bps to stimulate the near dead economy.  I think the closing cash rate this time next year will be circa 2.0%.  NAV at close of trade yesterday after payment of recent divvy of nearly 3 cents on 20 December has bounced back strongly to just over $1.50. ($1.501 by my estimate).  Possibly worth noting that many of the stocks picked by brokers are in the KFL portfolio.

This comment by well known poster Alokdhir on the other channel sums the situation up very well.  I highlighted the especially pertinent point.

Quote6.1 % CEN as per 31/10 ...great inclusion at good time !

Buying KFL today is like buying market at year back prices]

But nothing to worry for holders as we get paid dividend based on NAV and not SP ...and we all are LT holders I reckon ...

Basil, I think I've asked this before but I can't find the answer.. how do you find an accurate allocation of the KFL portfolio, to be able to estimate the NTA?
Thanks

Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 04, 2025, 10:40 AMBasil, I think I've asked this before but I can't find the answer.. how do you find an accurate allocation of the KFL portfolio, to be able to estimate the NTA?
Thanks

Full portfolio published quarterly reports. Keeps track of any major changes in weekly updates.

When you do 20 odd sums that will give a pretty good estimate ...Basil has a trusty abacus

Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 04, 2025, 10:40 AMBasil, I think I've asked this before but I can't find the answer.. how do you find an accurate allocation of the KFL portfolio, to be able to estimate the NTA?
Thanks

Here is the report from September 2024:
https://kingfish.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Kingfish-Newsletter-September-2024.pdf
They have not yet released the December 2024 report.

Thanks all

I've just done a quick calculation and put the NAV (@ 3 Jan) at $1.4877. This takes into account the dividend the 20/12/24 dividend.

How does that compare to your calculations ?

[edit: updated the forecast NAV for an calculation input error]

I've got it as $1.4796.  We're not far apart.  BRM is 74.56 by my calculations.

Two updates of NAV this week.

 The next NAV per share announcement will be the 31 December 2024
month end NAV per share, which will be announced to the NZX and posted to the
Kingfish website (kingfish.co.nz) on 6 January 2025. The regular weekly
NAV announcements will resume from Thursday 9 January 2025.

Kingfish NAV 31/12 was 1.4802

Up 13.1% over calendar year

NZX50 up 11.4%

Suppose we can say Peek's stock selection saw them beat the benchmark but one has to admit he's not a very active investor and one could say the 'outperformance' is mainly due to luck

Hopefully 2025 will be a lucky year for Peek

Winner why do you say the outperformance was due to luck?

Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 06, 2025, 02:58 PMWinner why do you say the outperformance was due to luck?

Look at portfolio weightings relative to the weighting of the stocks in NZX50 .....one would say that they are not far off being a passive fund rather than 'active'

Then again you could say they were lucky in not having the likes of FBU and SPK in the portfolio

It's not luck. It's careful stock selection.  There's many stocks they won't hold because of management ineptitude such as FBU or because the business model is severely handicapped like OCA with care.

Total performance for the year to 30 Nov was 26% incl divvies, an 11% outperformance of the NZX50, see post #143

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 06, 2025, 02:03 PMKingfish NAV 31/12 was 1.4802

Up 13.1% over calendar year + 8% divvies paid = total return of 21.1%

NZX50 up 11.4%

Suppose we can say Peek's stock selection saw them beat the benchmark but one has to admit he's not a very active investor and one could say the 'outperformance' is mainly due to luck

Hopefully 2025 will be a lucky year for Peek

Nearly 10% market outperformance is not luck mate, its skill.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 06, 2025, 03:12 PMThen again you could say they were lucky in not having the likes of FBU and SPK in the portfolio

I would call that skill rather than luck.  Next cab off the rank IMO is MCY.  Another non-holding for KFL.

Quote from: Ferg on Jan 07, 2025, 09:36 AMI would call that skill rather than luck.  Next cab off the rank IMO is MCY.  Another non-holding for KFL.

Yes indeed, I'll now admit that Peeks successful stock selection is a result of his skills

Takes real skill to see through all the hype and not select OCA

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 08, 2025, 08:25 AMYes indeed, I'll now admit that Peeks successful stock selection is a result of his skills

Takes real skill to see through all the hype and not select OCA

He was very resolute in dismissing OCA as a viable prospect in my discussion with him after the Annual meeting. Far too much care in their business model and he correctly called deep skepticism about the prospects for the Helier sell-down.  I suggested he have a look at Turners.  It was $4 at the time.  Shame he didn't act on that but I have truckloads in my portfolio anyway, so it doesn't really matter.
Despite what he says in the monthly reports about RYM, he's not all that keen on them either.   Made a real hash of things in recent years.

with china on the brink of a financial crisis and trump invading ice land ... where are the funds going to hide from the effects of markets not really giving any clear indicators of where to invest .. back to basics and very very careful stock selections...staples still needed but when people realise AI is artificial intellect not the real thingee that bubble may pop a bit ...

his stock picks will be interesting ...shake shack? or back to investing in tooth paste..

with Meta about to emulate X ... anything can happen for the next 4 years... go extreme defensive? scrap metal car merchants the best pick.. maybe.. heck KMD might even make a come back...as everyone gives up and goes to the beach ... its going to be sharks everywhere..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te3_VlimRw0

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445656/attachment/436319/445656-436319.pdf

Well done to Matt and the team at Kingfish.  25.7% gross return vs market return of 11.4% is an outstanding result for 2024.

Barramundi did okay too but slightly lagged the market.  Their long term track record though, is very good.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445702/attachment/436320/445702-436320.pdf

Quote from: Basil on Jan 24, 2025, 12:48 PMhttps://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445656/attachment/436319/445656-436319.pdf

Well done to Matt and the team at Kingfish.  25.7% gross return vs market return of 11.4% is an outstanding result for 2024.

Barramundi did okay too but slightly lagged the market.  Their long term track record though, is very good.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445702/attachment/436320/445702-436320.pdf

Always easy to celebrate the good years and keep silent about the not so good years. Kingfish 2023 SH return was negative 18.8%;

I don't follow any of these funds, but doubt, looking at some other Fisher funds that any of them does in the long term better than market average (i.e. ~8% pa for growth funds).

Looking into their share holder return (the only thing which really counts - who cares about the gross return?) look things quite different.

Their 2024 report reveals not just their negative 2023 performance (s. above), i.e, they didn't even recover in 2024 their 2023 loss. Total shareholder return over the last 5 years was 8.3 % pa, and this only thanks to an amazing 2021. The other years have been pretty poor.

For some reason don't they give numbers for longer terms - I assume there is a reason for that. Not that flash? Does anybody have 10 years annual return and / or return since inception?

So far Kingfish looks to me like a high risk, average return investment with high fees. Clearly - somebody wins.

At KFL's 2014 annual meeting they stated their return since inception, (over more than 20 years), was just over 10% after fees, just over 2% per annum better than the NZX50.  As such, I treat it as a "free hit" way to add diversification to my N.Z. portfolio of assets but for sake of clarity, mostly I am more than happy to stock pick N.Z. assets of my own volition and both my HLG and TRA stakes are each considerably higher than the capital invested in my KFL holding.

Barramundi has also outperformed over the long term, see the bottom of this webpage.  https://barramundi.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/

Kingfish December quarter comments

Big reduction in AIA .... probably making most of the strong recent rise in share price. Have reduced holding by about $6m and about 1.6 million shares.

MEL holding up from ~$12m to ~16m and ~660k more shares

IFT holding down from ~$$83m to ~75m with ~800k less shares

FRW holding up ~$2.5m but have reduced holding by 55k shares

Added ~30k DGL shares on price weakness

Been selling a few ATM - ~60k shares

Did these sums to assess how ACTIVE Matt is .... suppose he's kept himself occupied to some extent the last 3 months

Talked to Matt at the annual meeting about Turners, when they were $4. He said he was going to meet with Todd and Aaron in Sept.

He said he likes the company and management. Disappointing he didn't get some, however I actioned a significant additional acquisition program of my own so it doesn't really matter.

Credit where's its due for thrashing the NZX50 last year though.

And don't forget they are PIEs. Saves me tens of thousands a year in tax payments. Should add that on to returns too

Yeap, big difference between 28% corporate tax rate for PIE's and 39% for those earning over $180K.

Quote from: thedabsman on Jan 26, 2025, 06:46 PMAnd don't forget they are PIEs. Saves me tens of thousands a year in tax payments. Should add that on to returns too

Good point - certainly something to consider (though, they are not the only worthy PIE investment), however not possible to generalize the benefit for the individual investor - it depends very much on the tax situation of the individual.

Pretty much all three stocks at, or approaching, 12 month lows.
 Good discount to NAV but it looks as though the market doesn't have a lot of confidence in Fishers ability to navigate what is a pretty volatile time.
 Be interesting to see what the next newsletter says particularly if they underperform the NX50 benchmark again. Will they acknowledge their own underperformance (instead of blaming the stocks that they pick) and more importantly what are they going to do about it? Time for a change in strategy / fund managers?

I see that the exercise price of the KFL warrants has been set at $1.24 even though the SP is currently $1.20 I can't see there being many takers unless the SP bounces back significantly before 1 May, when the warrants expire.

Is this an emerging problem for KFL given that the warrants are firstly designed to attract investors and the price of them has collapsed to next to nothing (.002c) but also the exercising of the warrants is meant to augment the share and capital base and that ain't going to happen at the current settings? 

The primary concern should be, does anyone believe fisher can actually outperform the market on a long term basis, net of fees. 

I no longer have confidence they can match market performance before their expensive fees.  Better off in a low cost ETF with far greater diversification. If you need ro withdraw 2% each quarter, do so.

Damning story in BusinessDesk today

We need to talk about Fisher Funds

https://businessdesk.co.nz/journalist/eden-bradfield
Prob paywalled

Best bit which I concur with -

They can pay their portfolio managers and analysts lots of money. Poor old Baghead here just has a bag and maybe some loose coins in my pocket. Boo.

And look – I don't even wear a suit, so what do I know! I'm sure Fisher has lots of people in suits, and they can talk to you about golf, which is surely more important than earning a return.

I am assuming the story is about big fees, big wages and low returns.

I was with Gareth Morgan which got bought out by Kiwibank which got bought out by fisher funds.

I pay the minimum to get the tax credits and do not think much more about my Kiwisaver account.

I have had a quick look at the sorted page with its kiwisaver provider finder.

Interested in other thoughts on providers, particularly who is the least opaque with their reporting.

Gareth Morgan provided a list of all the companies and funds your portfolio was invested in, long but nice to know. Kiwibank continued with that but after seeing winners post, just logged in to Fishers and the latest report I have is the 2025 annual statement which tells me very little.

Which provider is the least secretive, or who would you recommend and for what reasons.

InvestNow Foundation Series Total World Fund. 

Low cost - total world equities - extremely diversified. 

InvestNow, Kernel and Simplicity are the three most commonly mentioned low cost Kiwisaver providers.