This is a thread dedicated to ASX stocks in uptrends or breaking out. It is focused on Technical Analysis, so anyone who thinks TA is a load of bulldust can stop reading now ::)
Inclusion of a stock herein is not a recommendation to rush out and buy it, it is merely for others to play along, and maybe get a feel for how Momentum Investing works over the long term. For those that enjoyed my previous posts on timing the market from many years ago, this is the advanced version ;D
Timing the Market
First up - the market in general needs to be in a Buy zone. By that I mean that the 50 day MA is above the 200 day MA and the index value is above both. This indicates the market is in a general uptrend so you have a tailwind behind you before you even start. As you can see, the All Ords is in such a position.
For almost a year now the technicals have said "No Buy" so it was a time to sit on your hands, have patience, and count your dollar bills sitting in the bank. Thats not to say that there weren't brief opportunities to take a trade or two in that time, but this post is about longer term trades, and rules for deploying substantial capital, so we want to have all our ducks lined up in a row to minimise risk.
So now where to go duck hunting? While the All Ords and the S&P200 are both in the Buy zone, the Small Ords is not. This would suggest that you limit your hunting to the bigger listed stocks, and not the small ones. This is also wise as large stocks have more liquidity, and if things go to shit in a hurry you will be able to get out of your position quickly and without suffering a large price spread. The NZX50 is looking similar to the ASX Small Ords, so its not in the Buy zone currently.
Note that the chart does not prove whether its a new bull market, or a bear market rally that is designed to sucker you into losing even more money lol, but if it turns out to be the latter then we shall soon be looking at a lot of charts with Sell signals.
All Ords
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Small Ords
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If you have any questions about Technical Analysis, fire away. Please keep it general in nature though, not "should I buy this stock now" questions. I am not a financial advisor, and I'd like to stay out of jail thanks.
Thank you for doing this. I'm keen to learn :o
So now we are in a Buy zone, the market is looking favourable, and we are hunting in the mid/large cap space. What is out there?
Timing PMV
PMV is showing excellent promise as it moves into a new uptrend. Its taken out its 200 day MA, had a Golden Cross, and has tested several levels of resistance and support. Its also rebounded strongly after going ex-div on the 10th Jan.
However note that it has not made a new 52 week high, so there is still substantial overhead for the stock to overcome around the $29 mark. Some Momentum Investors will not touch a stock until it has made a new 52 week high. Others will take a position anyway and just keep an eye on it with an exit plan in place in case the stock failed there, especially if the market was looking weak around that time.
For Basil's benefit ;D I will point out that PMV is trading on a P/E of 15.7, paying a dividend of 3.95%, with a payout ratio of 70% and with good growth in sales. From its Dec announcement "Global sales for the first 17 weeks of 1H23 are up 24.9% on 'pre-COVID' 1H20 sales. Pleasingly, Premier Retail achieved record sales during this year's 'Black Friday' trading week including achieving its highest ever global online sales for a trading week."
I will reiterate here that Techical Analysis is best used as a TIMING tool for stocks that have good Fundamental Analysis results, rather than using it to PICK stocks to buy based on their charts. So choose your stocks on FA, then buy/sell them based on TA.
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KW, in your experiences is there a particular charting software or programme you recommend for us newbie students to use in the dark art of TA?
Something easy to use which I can play around as you show examples.
Not necessarily what you may be using yourself.
I use both Apple and windows os. Prefer Apple.
Quote from: Perky on Jan 17, 2023, 08:49 PMKW, in your experiences is there a particular charting software or programme you recommend for us newbie students to use in the dark art of TA?
Something easy to use which I can play around as you show examples.
Not necessarily what you may be using yourself.
I use both Apple and windows os. Prefer Apple.
The charts that I post are created with Interactive Brokers, my trading platform. You should check it out as you can open an account from NZ, and their commission structure is much lower than anything else on the market (but no access to NZX). The best web based one is tradingview.com (it also has NZX data) although there are limits on the free charts so you might have to cough up a subscription if you want to really unlock its full power. Incrediblecharts.com is a free software download and is also very good (but no NZ data).
I don't use any fancy indicators, I stick to the basics like moving averages (for both price and volume) and I draw my own resistance and support levels by eyeballing the chart. Because I take a long term trade view, the minutiae of stock price movements are not material, I just want to see where the long term trends are going and when they change. Over the years I've found that with TA, less is often more.
Thanks KW, a thread I am interested in. I'm also into TA for timing, entry's and exits for stocks that pass the FA sniff test (and have been for a long time). When I'm at my computer I'll post a DOW chart (I prefer weekly to take out the noise, so my 50/200 is a proxy 17/43 EMA). DOW is a small collection of the largest US caps, that the index bounced in October'22 and has already done the above 50/200EMA, golden cross and above 61.% FIB retrace. It fits with your thesis of fundamentally sound large caps driving the turnaround, albeit not ASX per se. Possibly worth looking into the constituents of the DOW that are driving this turnaround. My chart https://invst.ly/-1bwc, it's nice and simple like yours, MA's, trend lines and a couple of basic indicators like volume, RSI, MACD, FIB's.
I use Investing.com which uses the Tradingview.com chart engine. Register free and chart any stock, option, future, currency etc in the known universe. It's a thoroughly comprehensive charting solution, way beyond most peoples needs but excellent at all the basics and has all the advanced charting if that takes your fancy. Easy to use as well imo, just a few hours getting to know it and bingo, you'll never use any of the dumb charts like Incredible, Stockcharts, Bigcharts etc, again. JMHO.
So here's one that you all without ASX access can play along with. FPH is setting up nicely, similar to the other charts I've posted so far. Only difference is that FPH is heading into a strong resistance barrier set up by the big price drop back in March 2022.
The reason why this will be a significant barrier is because there are a lot of trapped buyers there who will be looking to "get out even". These are people who have been sitting on big losses to date, who look back and wish they had sold earlier, so when the stock gets back to that point instead of thinking "great, I'm finally on to a winner" they think "thank god, I've got a second chance to get out". Also known as Loss Aversion Bias (highly recommend reading/studying behavioural finance as its the driver behind most of TA).
The flood of "get out evens" will put pressure on the stock price and it may break down again at that point. If it does, then I would expect a retest of the lower resistance level as new support. TA Rule - old resistance levels become support, old support levels become resistance.
Alternatively, fundamental good news could drive the price through that barrier and beyond, if the company management convinces the "get out evens" to hang in there. As mentioned previously, TA does not predict the future, but the important thing to note is that it gives you the heads up you need to pay attention to the stock price when it gets to that point - have an exit plan ready in case it fails.
FPHJan2023.png
ADH has a very similar problem to FPH - a lot of overhead coming up due to a significant breakdown in Jan 2022 which trapped holders. Its through the first resistance level (which was the old support Jan to May) and all the other ducks are in row (price above the 50 and 200 day MA, golden cross). It hasnt had a significant VOL breakout but there is a distinct increase in volume recently after a long period of low volume which usually indicates something like a fund taking a position (quiet and steady).
Also on the positive side, is that ADH has put in a double bottom, which has provided plenty of opportunity to flush out weak holders.
Fundamentally this one has been a bit wonky lately due to issues with Mocka cots, shipping delays, and general covid disruptions, so its possible that when it reports earnings it disappoints and sends the share price back down. The market trend is saying that it is expecting good news re future earnings, but sometimes the market gets it wrong. It is currently trading on a P/E of 11, with a dividend yield of 6.2% and a 68% payout ratio, so any good news should see the stock significantly rerated to its peers.
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"So choose your stocks on FA, then buy/sell them based on TA'.
Good advice that. I don't chase momentum blindly. The most money is to be made when both FA and TA say its a strong BUY.
Quote from: KW on Jan 18, 2023, 05:19 PMTA Rule - old resistance levels become support, old support levels become resistance.
Nice rule which is new to me given I'm no TA. Thought it was worth quoting. Thanks for sharing.
Quote from: Ferg on Jan 21, 2023, 10:41 PMNice rule which is new to me given I'm no TA. Thought it was worth quoting. Thanks for sharing.
They are often levels where people place stop losses. So sometimes you will see the price driven down to that level in order to go "stop loss fishing" - ie. trigger the stop losses, buy the shares, and then wait for the immediate rebound in share price. So for that reason its always a good idea to know where they are, and to be able to tell a stop loss fishing exercise from a genuine break down in trend.
Here's a good example of how you can always find an uptrend, even in a really crappy bear market
I bought NEU in July 2022 after a volume pop that indicated a price breakout might be about to occur, which it did a few days later, so I bought some. Its now a 2 bagger for me in under a year - which is why I find sticking around in stocks that are going nowhere fast, in the hope that one day the share price might recover, is a giant waste of time. Time really IS money.
The most recent breakout was a signal to buy more as the trend gains even more momentum (but alas I did not). It most likely will pull back from here at some stage, stocks don't like to get too far from that 13 day MA.
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Quote from: KW on Mar 17, 2023, 01:27 PMHere's a good example of how you can always find an uptrend, even in a really crappy bear market
I bought NEU in July 2022 after a volume pop that indicated a price breakout might be about to occur, which it did a few days later, so I bought some. Its now a 2 bagger for me in under a year - which is why I find sticking around in stocks that are going nowhere fast, in the hope that one day the share price might recover, is a giant waste of time. Time really IS money.
The most recent breakout was a signal to buy more as the trend gains even more momentum (but alas I did not). It most likely will pull back from here at some stage, stocks don't like to get too far from that 13 day MA.
neu.png
Good advice, though I assume you hope it doesn't roll up its toenails on the way up. Some companies do ... and TA does not seem to help in this case.
Just try to remember the name of this flash and momentum driven company which crashed some years ago for some simple accounting mistakes (well, some might have called it fraud) - but can't ... too many companies to come and go.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 17, 2023, 04:38 PMGood advice, though I assume you hope it doesn't roll up its toenails on the way up. Some companies do ... and TA does not seem to help in this case.
Just try to remember the name of this flash and momentum driven company which crashed some years ago for some simple accounting mistakes (well, some might have called it fraud) - but can't ... too many companies to come and go.
We're in a bear market so it pays to take some of your profits off the table along the way, or otherwise you may end up giving them all back. Bull markets are so much easier, boy I miss it LOL
BIG and ISX were the ones that exploded into oblivion. As they say, the market teaches expensive lessons. I lost it all on BIG but didnt make the same mistake twice with ISX (although I only sold half at the first whiff of trouble then still got stuck with the other half as the ASX suspended them, although I was still well in the money just from the sale of half). You do have to sleep with one eye open with the small caps.
Quote from: KW on Mar 17, 2023, 05:08 PMWe're in a bear market so it pays to take some of your profits off the table along the way, or otherwise you may end up giving them all back. Bull markets are so much easier, boy I miss it LOL
BIG and ISX were the ones that exploded into oblivion. As they say, the market teaches expensive lessons. I lost it all on BIG but didnt make the same mistake twice with ISX (although I only sold half at the first whiff of trouble then still got stuck with the other half as the ASX suspended them, although I was still well in the money just from the sale of half). You do have to sleep with one eye open with the small caps.
Cheers - yep, BIG was the company on my mind. I really need to keep better records, even from companies I don't own but just find interesting ... otherwise they just disappear in the big Nirwana of oblivion.
Anyway ... I admire your trading style (even if it would not be for me) ... but are you sure that sleeping with one eye open would have helped you for BIG? Apart from pointing to the importance of a good nights sleep to maintain ones mental well being - I guess its always easy to point with the benefit of hindsight to some flimsy indicator ... but reacting to them every time (without knowing the outcome) might cause your brokerage fees to eat your lunch.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 18, 2023, 09:58 AMCheers - yep, BIG was the company on my mind. I really need to keep better records, even from companies I don't own but just find interesting ... otherwise they just disappear in the big Nirwana of oblivion.
Anyway ... I admire your trading style (even if it would not be for me) ... but are you sure that sleeping with one eye open would have helped you for BIG? Apart from pointing to the importance of a good nights sleep to maintain ones mental well being - I guess its always easy to point with the benefit of hindsight to some flimsy indicator ... but reacting to them every time (without knowing the outcome) might cause your brokerage fees to eat your lunch.
Yes, there was a period of time when the reporting on BIG made it clear that things were not right, even though the ultimate disclosure that brought the company down was made after it had already been suspended. I disregarded the known news in the belief that it wasn't material and would blow over. However that saying "there are always more cockroaches in the kitchen" has proven itself to be true time over. So now I prefer to take the brokerage hit and lock in big profits, and I will reinvest that money into something else where the management are a lot more trustworthy.
I've implemented several rules like that, the other one is that I won't touch a Chinese owned/operated/market business. This after seeing the documentary The China Hustle, and noticing that the ones on the ASX often turn out to be fraudulent. Phoslock being the latest one. Although that rule has a funny kick to it - I thought I had gotten out of all of my China related stocks but had not realised AB1 (games software developer) was one, which then got delisted for failing to provide its financial reports to the ASX. However in the era of free money from VC funding rounds, the thing has turned into a multi-billion dollar Unicorn, except that I'm still trapped in it lol. Now that the era of free money is over, its highly likely that it will implode for the second time. C'est la vie as they say
Here's the latest "exit signal" https://www.afr.com/rear-window/we-re-not-as-bad-as-isignthis-says-creso-pharma-20230316-p5csqw
Yet again, technical analysis trumps fundamental analysis. The market knows, even if you don't.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/fisher-funds-loses-80m-in-bank-collapse
"There was no indication," he says. "We review the banks and this bank's result was very strong; it actually came out a couple of days ago, late last week, reconfirming the balance sheet and the deposit position. So there wasn't anything in the fundamentals that suggested that this would happen.
SBNY.png
Quote from: KW on Mar 18, 2023, 12:50 PMYes, there was a period of time when the reporting on BIG made it clear that things were not right, even though the ultimate disclosure that brought the company down was made after it had already been suspended. I disregarded the known news in the belief that it wasn't material and would blow over. However that saying "there are always more cockroaches in the kitchen" has proven itself to be true time over. So now I prefer to take the brokerage hit
and lock in big profits, and I will reinvest that money into something else where the management are a lot more trustworthy.
I see Richard Evans/ Evertz (ex Big Un chief ex) has finally been dragged into Court a couple of weeks ago on insider trading charges...looking at ten years potentially. He can add that to his previous lag for blackmailing men in public toilets by impersonating a police officer. ASIC's glacial paced investigation concerning Big Un executives is still in play too.
Quote from: KW on Mar 20, 2023, 04:14 PMYet again, technical analysis trumps fundamental analysis. The market knows, even if you don't.
...
I think above statement is misleading. Both tools have their place. Both are useful, none is infallible.
Sometimes some people in the market know more than you do ... and if the flock of sheep happens to follow them, than it appears markets know more.
Other times markets follow some people making the wrong decisions (like any flock of sheep or horses if there is an unexpected bang) and just stampede into a pretty senseless (and sometimes fatal) direction - sometimes down the cliff.
FA gives you an idea of the value of a company, but obviously this does not help (in the short term) if the markets disagrees. And of course, given that nobody knows the future, FA (analysing the past) might be useless to determine future value.
TA gives you an understanding in which direction the flock of investors stampedes. If the flock is right ... great. If the flock is wrong ... better mind the cliff edge. And of course, given that nobody knows the future, TA (analysing the past) might be useless determining future value.
I guess its picking horses for courses ... which is great if you know the future course. However - nobody knows for sure how the course will continue, i.e. you always run the risk to pick the wrong horse.
Anyway - it is great to learn from you more about some TA aspects. It is a useful tool, but, as any other tools, it does have its limitations.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Mar 20, 2023, 10:10 PMI see Richard Evans/ Evertz (ex Big Un chief ex) has finally been dragged into Court a couple of weeks ago on insider trading charges...looking at ten years potentially. He can add that to his previous lag for blackmailing men in public toilets by impersonating a police officer. ASIC's glacial paced investigation concerning Big Un executives is still in play too.
That's a little like getting Al Capone on tax evasion charges. Still not being held accountable for what was a straight out fraud. Most people were taught at Uni that the only reliable company statement was the cashflow one, the P&L and BS can be manipulated, but BIG blew that trust out of the water. Turns out cashflows can be manipulated too.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 21, 2023, 10:01 AMAnyway - it is great to learn from you more about some FA aspects. It is a useful tool, but, as any other tools, it does have its limitations.
If there was one magic tool we'd all be billionaires ;D
All one can do is utilise all the tools we have to make the best decision we can in light of the limited information we have access to. But it is my experience that a stock that is trending down while others in their industry are going up (or remaining stable) usually indicates someone somewhere has access to information and is acting on it. Plus there is that theory that the wisdom of crowds is greater than even the smartest individuals.
But TA is the best tool we have to protect and preserve capital. By the time the FA comes out publicly it is usually too late and retail shareholders have already lost a lot of money. Another favourite market quote of mine is "Do you want to be right? Or do you want to make money?". Attaching one's ego to a stock purchase and then defending it all the way down to zero is a fool's errand.
Quote from: KW on Mar 21, 2023, 10:17 AMIf there was one magic tool we'd all be billionaires ;D
All one can do is utilise all the tools we have to make the best decision we can in light of the limited information we have access to. But it is my experience that a stock that is trending down while others in their industry are going up (or remaining stable) usually indicates someone somewhere has access to information and is acting on it. Plus there is that theory that the wisdom of crowds is greater than even the smartest individuals.
But TA is the best tool we have to protect and preserve capital. By the time the FA comes out publicly it is usually too late and retail shareholders have already lost a lot of money. Another favourite market quote of mine is "Do you want to be right? Or do you want to make money?". Attaching one's ego to a stock purchase and then defending it all the way down to zero is a fool's errand.
I think we essentially agree. It was just your original "TA beats FA" I disagreed with.
And yes, unrelated to the tools one uses - falling in love with a stock (or attaching ones ego to it) always clouds the view (which is rarely useful), which brings us to a quite different tool box: behavioural science.
Ownership bias (and many other biases) are part of human nature. Good to be aware of them.
Anyway - we probably should go back to momentum investing opportunities ...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 21, 2023, 12:37 PMAnyway - we probably should go back to momentum investing opportunities ...
Its going to be a fairly quiet thread until the next bear market rally kicks off, which might be a while if the financial system crashes. I might have to start doing TA on bitcoin and gold LOL (nice breakouts on GBTC and BITO if you want exposure to this space)
(cross posted from DUR thread)
Lovely example of finding a share that is breaking out into a new uptrend, even in the depths of a crappy bear market. DUR IPO'd at 50c a share in late 2020 mid Covid pandemic, and like most of those companies that did so it promptly went on to lose 42% drifting to a low of 29c.
But then it found a bottom, and continued to trade within a fairly tight range, giving the stock time for the 50 and 200 day moving averages to realign and setting up the foundation for a move higher. You can then see a very clear break out from this range in both price and volume (best to have both in sync) portending a strong new uptrend.
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Lovely classic Price and Volume breakout on DSE signalling an entry back in April. First attempt in Oct wasn't successful (first ones often aren't) but it was followed by a successful retest of support at 17c. Second attempt in Feb looked good, with another successful test of support at the 200 day MA. Then BAM!
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In progress .....
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Quite a strong positive move in the Hi/Lo last night. Looks like a market wide rally is on! I opened a few positions on Friday in anticipation.
Just to mix it up in this thread and to motivate myself to get back into the swing of Momentum investing (as we can't have KW do all the heavy lifting with content) ;D
I've added a screen shot of a Momentum screener tool I've built with a mate, to help easily identify interesting stocks on the ASX and US markets.
If you want to see the full list or create your own you can visit Technical Stock Screener (https://platform.shareimpulse.com/) at Share Impulse
Very useful McGinty,thanks.Going a little more off topic,can anyone post a " free cash flow based value screen"?
SKO bouncing off support/resistance after initial breakout move. Still a good momentum candidate after a bit of a breather.
SKO.png
CAT making a new 52 week high. Decent uptrend, bounced off the 200 day nicely in recent market correction, held prior support level, now moving higher on consistent volume (funds buying in?)
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CKF Collins Food (operator of KFC, Taco Bell) has delivered a good trading update. Its clearly the result of all those Kiwi's moving to Australia this year ;D
Group HY24 results
• Revenue from continuing operations up 14.3% to $696.5 million (HY23: $609.4 million) with strong growth across all business units.
• Underlying EBITDA from continuing operations up 16.7% to $109.9 million (HY23: $94.2 million).
• Underlying NPAT from continuing operations up 28.7% to $31.2 million (HY23: $24.2 million).
• Statutory NPAT of $50.5 million, compared with $11.0 million HY23, including gain on sale of Sizzler Asia of $20.2 million HY24.
• Net debt reduced to $173.0 million (HY23: $191.1 million) and Net Leverage Ratio of 1.12 (HY23: 1.31) as a result of strong cash generation.
• Fully franked interim dividend of 12.5 cents per ordinary share (cps) declared (HY23: 12.0 cps fully franked).
Nice technical move today to put it into a Stage 2 breakout
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What's the difference between a Stage One and Stage Two breakout you ask?
A Stage One breakout occurs after a period of stagnation or churn in a downtrend (Stage Four), where its trading below its 200 day MA, failing at key Resistance levels, and finally drops back to flush out the final weak hands in a capitulation event, thus setting up conditions for a breakout move (as sellers have effectively gone). Stage One breakouts are notoriously fickle though, as the stock still has a lot of overhead to work through, so there is usually more testing of Support and Resistance levels so the price returns back to earth.
A Stage Two breakout is when it clears all its baggage and moves into a new 52 week high free of its prior overhead. Mark Minervini reckons only 3% of Stage One breakouts continue straight up, so he tends to wait for the Stage Two breakouts to buy. Or he buys the Stage One as a short term trade as he expects the price to eventually pull back again.
The Stage Two breakouts are happening all over the place. Long period of consolidation allowing the stock to form a base, from which a Stage One breakout on volume occurs. This then pulls back to a level of support, creating the conditions from which a Stage Two breakout can occur.
TPW - stonking results reported, managing to beat even their Covid sales and a lower general retail trend.
"The company said sales between July 1 and November 27 had risen 27 per cent compared to the same period last year, with revenues increasing even more strongly from October 1 – up 42 per cent" despite decreasing their prices.
"The group had a booming Black Friday to Cyber Monday sales period, with sales doubling to $17.4 million over the four days compared with a year ago."
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It is interesting to compare the NZ50C with the XJO to see the difference in performance over the last 5 years. The XJO is almost back to making new highs, while the NZ50 is still languishing around May 2019 levels. Something to think about when allocating your funds, the ASX has been the better performer across the pandemic period. They don't call it The Lucky Country for nothing ;D
(note I've used the NZ capital index not the gross, for a fair comparison).
Screenshot 2023-12-15 171243.png
US market is on fire, the hi/lo chart has been an excellent timing mechanism
Screenshot 2023-12-15 183215.png
Quote from: KW on Dec 15, 2023, 06:34 PMUS market is on fire, the hi/lo chart has been an excellent timing mechanism
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So - do you recon to follow the herd and engage FOMO, or is this a case of "be fearful when others are greedy"?
Clearly - the herd is stampeding, the question is just whether there is a canyon between where they are and where they are running.
Anyway - CNN fear greed index on 67%. Not outrageous, but already pretty greedy.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 16, 2023, 10:06 AMSo - do you recon to follow the herd and engage FOMO, or is this a case of "be fearful when others are greedy"?
Clearly - the herd is stampeding, the question is just whether there is a canyon between where they are and where they are running.
Anyway - CNN fear greed index on 67%. Not outrageous, but already pretty greedy.
When it says go, I go. Keep stops in place, and protect positions from large drawdowns. The Aussie market is a bit behind, but things are moving now and it shouldnt be too long before its hitting new highs as well. There are a lot of ASX companies that have set up beautifully from a technical perspective, actually looks textbook!
God only knows what is going on in the NZX though. Possibly the market knew what the Labour Govt tried to hide - that NZ had actually been in recession for 3 out of the last 4 quarters, despite the denials and fake data. Whereas USA and Australia economies are still growing, albeit at slower levels.
This is worth a watch - commentary on current state of the market by my favourite author MM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxrJhcrzll4
MM makes the point that this rally has shut a lot of market participants out, so they will have to chase. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines that is available to drive this bull market. One good indicator to watch is the FUM with retail fund managers (many are listed so reports are easy to find). When money starts returning to funds, they also need to start buying.
Quote from: KW on Dec 16, 2023, 01:32 PMWhen it says go, I go. Keep stops in place, and protect positions from large drawdowns. The Aussie market is a bit behind, but things are moving now and it shouldnt be too long before its hitting new highs as well. There are a lot of ASX companies that have set up beautifully from a technical perspective, actually looks textbook!
God only knows what is going on in the NZX though. Possibly the market knew what the Labour Govt tried to hide - that NZ had actually been in recession for 3 out of the last 4 quarters, despite the denials and fake data. Whereas USA and Australia economies are still growing, albeit at slower levels.
This is worth a watch - commentary on current state of the market by my favourite author MM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxrJhcrzll4
MM makes the point that this rally has shut a lot of market participants out, so they will have to chase. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines that is available to drive this bull market. One good indicator to watch is the FUM with retail fund managers (many are listed so reports are easy to find). When money starts returning to funds, they also need to start buying.
KW I am familiar with MM from market wizards I think. Have you read any or all of his books ,worth purchasing ?
Quote from: Stoploss on Dec 17, 2023, 11:40 AMKW I am familiar with MM from market wizards I think. Have you read any or all of his books ,worth purchasing ?
Yes, I have the first 2 of his. Highly recommended. He goes through a lot of history and other great investors' theories like William O'Neill and Stan Weinstein (whose books are also worth buying and reading). So its also a good summary of the history and development of momentum trading. His last book was a psychology one, which I havent read, but probably should :-)
PFP Propel Funeral Partners
Now that Invocare has been taken over, PFP is the only listed funeral business on the ASX. And with the big increase in deaths in 2022 and 2023 (and probably 2024) business is booming. I'm fully expecting an earnings upgrade.
Their recent investor presentation is also worth a read as its has some good industry research on future death rates in Australia and NZ.
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One of the worst investments on the ASX ever. Boart Longyear, at the time it was the second largest IPO on the ASX after Telstra. From a high of $134,580* down to $2.75 it has finally been put out of its misery and taken private. Its really an excellent example of why waiting for a stock to recover could be the worst investment decision you ever make. Buy, Hold and Pray is not a viable investment strategy - you gotta know when to "fold em, know when to walk away, and know when to run".
(*it went through a 300:1 consolidation in 2019, and a 20:1 consolidation in 2021)
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Quote from: KW on Dec 28, 2023, 01:11 PMOne of the worst investments on the ASX ever. Boart Longyear, at the time it was the second largest IPO on the ASX after Telstra. From a high of $134,580* down to $2.75 it has finally been put out of its misery and taken private. Its really an excellent example of why waiting for a stock to recover could be the worst investment decision you ever make. Buy, Hold and Pray is not a viable investment strategy - you gotta know when to "fold em, know when to walk away, and know when to run".
(*it went through a 300:1 consolidation in 2019, and a 20:1 consolidation in 2021)
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WOW.
Well any and every stock could go to zero given a full scale nuclear war and holding and praying would be the best strategy by a country mile. 8)
A good example of just how potent a resistance level can be.
HUB had a crack at its resistance in Feb last year but was unsuccessful, but a second attempt in August was. Later during a pullback that resistance level was tested, and as it should, it held and became a support level. From there, onwards and upwards.
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PNV PolyNovo - great breakout from a good base. Catalyst was dropping an excellent half yearly update.
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With the new bull market in full flight, there are lots of buy signals happening. But now attention turns to when to sell them so you can lock in profits, and deploy the funds into new opportunities.
C79 has had a great run, after a bit of a false start post IPO in 2022. As price increased, volume increased as more investors piled in to the stock. This made it an increasingly "crowded trade" and increased the risk of a steep downside should the company disappoint the market. Which it has done, with its latest 4C and commentary.
Big runups increase the risk of big drawdowns. Or as they say "escalator up, elevator down". So you need to be prepared to sell, especially around the time of earnings reports. And in many cases, the cross of the 13 day MA (the white line) below the 50 day MA (the red line) is often a good signal. This cross wont happen so long as the uptrend is in place, so when it does occur, its often a good exit point.
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C79 appeared to be on the way to blues skies growth, then this sudden downturn in the share price coincided with a statement on page 2 of a 9 page announcement 24-1-24 to ASX (sorry link copy won't work atm) that following completion of a successful bank loan of $65 mill, the CFO realised they would not be able to do what they promised, and declared the benefits from this investment would be put off for a year. How very Australian ... they seem to get away with it there more often than NZ.
Quote from: KW on Dec 28, 2023, 12:45 PMPFP Propel Funeral Partners
Now that Invocare has been taken over, PFP is the only listed funeral business on the ASX. And with the big increase in deaths in 2022 and 2023 (and probably 2024) business is booming. I'm fully expecting an earnings upgrade.
Their recent investor presentation is also worth a read as its has some good industry research on future death rates in Australia and NZ.
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They feature on Street Talk (https://www.afr.com/street-talk/propel-funeral-partners-in-90m-equity-raise-20240130-p5f10f)
The country's No.2 funeral services player Propel Funeral Partners's bosses have launched a $90 million equity raising to reduce the funeral provider's net leverage and restock its acquisition kitty.
Propel Funeral Partners is Australia's No.2 player in funerals and cremations. iStock
The raise was split into an $80 million placement and would be followed by a $10 million share purchase plan. Propel's brokers, Barrenjoey and Bell Potter were offering shares in the placement at $5.15 apiece or a 4.3 per cent discount to the last close.
Terms sheets sent to fund managers on Tuesday said the raising would leave Propel with 1.5-times net leverage against a five-times limit set by its covenants. The company would have $170 million in funding capacity after the raise. An accompanying trading update said Propel would pay $4.6 million to buy New Zealand's Southern Funeral Home, which has five locations and generates about $2 million in annual revenue.
Propel's bosses have ordered the cash call at a time when TPG Capital's acquisition of InvoCare turns private equity's attention to the sector. Street Talk has previously reported Propel's No.2 position and growth track record caught the eye of IFM Investors, which is understood to have weighed a bid. For its part, Propel ran an investment bank beauty parade last year to select a defence adviser, ultimately hiring Barrenjoey.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 31, 2024, 09:29 AMThey feature on Street Talk (https://www.afr.com/street-talk/propel-funeral-partners-in-90m-equity-raise-20240130-p5f10f)
The country's No.2 funeral services player Propel Funeral Partners's bosses have launched a $90 million equity raising to reduce the funeral provider's net leverage and restock its acquisition kitty.
Propel Funeral Partners is Australia's No.2 player in funerals and cremations. iStock
The raise was split into an $80 million placement and would be followed by a $10 million share purchase plan. Propel's brokers, Barrenjoey and Bell Potter were offering shares in the placement at $5.15 apiece or a 4.3 per cent discount to the last close.
Terms sheets sent to fund managers on Tuesday said the raising would leave Propel with 1.5-times net leverage against a five-times limit set by its covenants. The company would have $170 million in funding capacity after the raise. An accompanying trading update said Propel would pay $4.6 million to buy New Zealand's Southern Funeral Home, which has five locations and generates about $2 million in annual revenue.
Propel's bosses have ordered the cash call at a time when TPG Capital's acquisition of InvoCare turns private equity's attention to the sector. Street Talk has previously reported Propel's No.2 position and growth track record caught the eye of IFM Investors, which is understood to have weighed a bid. For its part, Propel ran an investment bank beauty parade last year to select a defence adviser, ultimately hiring Barrenjoey.
Its a roll up play in a industry that is also expanding organically - so double bang for your buck. As opposed to other roll up plays like dental clinics or childcare operators where the underlying industry is not in expansion mode.
Quote from: Whome on Jan 30, 2024, 10:30 AMC79 appeared to be on the way to blues skies growth, then this sudden downturn in the share price coincided with a statement on page 2 of a 9 page announcement 24-1-24 to ASX (sorry link copy won't work atm) that following completion of a successful bank loan of $65 mill, the CFO realised they would not be able to do what they promised, and declared the benefits from this investment would be put off for a year. How very Australian ... they seem to get away with it there more often than NZ.
That's because people dont have high expectations from the small cap market. Mostly primed for that belief with half the exchange being speculative mining stocks, and a notorious "wild west cowboy" mentality applied to running them. To this day, one needs to be cautious of companies with their head office in Perth, or audited by non-Big4 auditors.
But hey, its all part of the fun. You get a wild ride up, and then try your best to avoid the worst of the blowups or bombs (or at least, get out quickly). The ASX is no place to be complacent. But you can limit your chances of blowing up your portfolio by simply "not drinking and buying shares in a downtrend" ;D
Quote from: KW on Jan 31, 2024, 11:03 AMBut hey, its all part of the fun. You get a wild ride up, and then try your best to avoid the worst of the blowups or bombs (or at least, get out quickly). The ASX is no place to be complacent. But you can limit your chances of blowing up your portfolio by simply "not drinking and buying shares in a downtrend" ;D
Only had a small holding from the specky fund, but none-the-less on reading that 'Act, don't just re-act' was employed with an immediate sale and a $600 loss that would have been far better spent at the Oyster & Chop!
Quote from: Whome on Jan 31, 2024, 02:02 PMOnly had a small holding from the specky fund, but none-the-less on reading that 'Act, don't just re-act' was employed with an immediate sale and a $600 loss that would have been far better spent at the Oyster & Chop!
Small losses are easily made up on new investments. Big losses can be portfolio destroying. Its always better to take a small loss and then move on, then to sit for years waiting to recover a big loss, or worse, turning a small loss into a big loss.
The NYSE advance/decline line is showing divergence from S&P and this apparently good
Quote from: KW on Nov 28, 2023, 05:49 PMCKF Collins Food (operator of KFC, Taco Bell) has delivered a good trading update. Its clearly the result of all those Kiwi's moving to Australia this year ;D
Nice technical move today to put it into a Stage 2 breakout
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Follow up on CKF. Exited this week, with a 9.3% return for a 2 month hold (including a 12.5c dividend). Reason for selling, the cross of the 13 day MA below the 50 day MA, which often signifies that this particular leg up has run out of puff. Also the sustained selling over the last 2 weeks is an ominous sign.While 9.3% doesnt sound like much, thats equivalent to a 55.8% annualised gain. The aim is to now recycle that capital into the next share that is going up. That is how you get superperformance. Why? To quote Mark Minervini ...."It's far better to sell into strength than wait too long and lose all or most of the sizeable gain you once had. When you sell into strength, your equity value is at its highest point. If you want to maintain an equity curve that consistently stair-steps up, you should learn how to sell when you have a decent gain while the stock is advancing.
Waiting too long to sell also runs the risk of losing time value. When you hold a stock through a significant correction, you may have to go through weeks, months, or longer before it starts another leg up. During that time, you're tying up your money instead of getting out at a profit and moving on to the next best opportunity.
Remember the lesson on time value: thanks to the power of compounding, if you can get a small but consistent return and repeat it over and over, it could be far more productive than trying for a bigger return that takes several months or even years to produce.
Time Value and the Power of Compounding
Two 40 percent returns = 96% return
Four 20 percent returns = 107% return
Twelve 10 percent returns = 214% return
These numbers are eye-opening for many novice traders who think that their only hope of achieving superperformance is finding that one "moonshot" stock. But eight trades that produce a 10 percent profit will more than double your money. And 12 trades (one per month on average) that produce a 10 percent return will more than triple your money. So ask yourself: how much easier would it be to find a dozen stocks that go up 10 percent, versus finding three or four that produce a 40 percent return, or one that doubles or triples? This is opportunity cost at work."
— Think & Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules & Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard by Mark Minervini CKFFEB.png
360 - a breakout to end all breakouts ;D
CY23 Financial Highlights
• Revenue of $305 million, a YoY increase of 33%
• Core Life360 subscription revenue2 of $200 million, up 52% YoY, ahead of guidance for more than a 50% YoY increase; • Net loss of $28.2 million, a $63.5 million improvement from CY22;
• Positive Adjusted EBITDA of $20.6 million ahead of guidance of $12 million - $16 million, with consistent Positive Adjusted EBITDA delivered in each quarter of CY23;
• Positive Operating Cash Flow (OCF) of $7.5 million, a $64.6 million improvement versus CY22;
• Year-end cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $70.7 million up from $63.7 million at the end of Q3'23
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Wow up 36 percent in a day. I can't recall any sizeable NZX stock going up that much in a day for a very long time. Well done.
Hope discovery funds have this one.
https://youtu.be/3AmBNOGopk8?si=4vrR8VIld83s6LgL
Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 02, 2024, 03:15 PMhttps://youtu.be/3AmBNOGopk8?si=4vrR8VIld83s6LgL
I read somewhere that the main driver for customer acquisition is to be able to track teenage kids in cars, see where they are going, and how fast they are travelling. Considering how many kids are killed in reckless driving incidents in NZ, I can understand that.
Perhaps there is a Govt application here too - install the app on all those little shits who steal cars, go on police chases, and commit ram raids. Should be expanded to all parolees and offenders on home detention, as clearly those ankle bracelets dont do anything.
I would get a Tile for my pets though. Missing cats and dogs are a big problem.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-exjtdd-yupddjlly-m/
AMO Ambertech gets a mention.
A recent purchase for me.
HPG HiPages.
Lovely chart set up. Coming off a long base, with a double bottom. All MAs in alignment, with a Golden Cross (50 day MA over the 200 day MA). Increasing volume indicating fund flow, and a breakout on volume through prior resistance levels.
Fundamentals are improving, with cashflow and profitability becoming positive this year off the back of growth in both earnings and margin.
Screenshot 2024-03-14 140640.png
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Quote from: KW on Mar 02, 2024, 02:49 PM360 - a breakout to end all breakouts ;D
CY23 Financial Highlights
• Revenue of $305 million, a YoY increase of 33%
• Core Life360 subscription revenue2 of $200 million, up 52% YoY, ahead of guidance for more than a 50% YoY increase; • Net loss of $28.2 million, a $63.5 million improvement from CY22;
• Positive Adjusted EBITDA of $20.6 million ahead of guidance of $12 million - $16 million, with consistent Positive Adjusted EBITDA delivered in each quarter of CY23;
• Positive Operating Cash Flow (OCF) of $7.5 million, a $64.6 million improvement versus CY22;
• Year-end cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $70.7 million up from $63.7 million at the end of Q3'23
360March24.png
360 is now listed on the Nasdaq, so will directly benefit from the US tech uplift (assuming there is some outside of NVIDIA lol)
Uptrend has resumed, after a small sell off pre-Nasdaq IPO but heading higher again. I took it as an opportunity to top up my holding.
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Quote from: KW on Jan 04, 2024, 02:12 PMA good example of just how potent a resistance level can be.
HUB had a crack at its resistance in Feb last year but was unsuccessful, but a second attempt in August was. Later during a pullback that resistance level was tested, and as it should, it held and became a support level. From there, onwards and upwards.
HUB.png
Let your winners run. Cut your losers.
HUB has pulled back twice since its initial breakout, providing impetus for further runs. These present additional entry points.
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Despite hitting all time-highs there were momentum trading opportunities in many markets. Next, we may get bear market. That's where we get our next opportunities.
Nasdaq is not looking good. Sell-off could spread to other markets NEXT.
Quote from: Mr Cashflow on Jul 18, 2024, 01:06 PMNasdaq is not looking good. Sell-off could spread to other markets NEXT.
Hello doom bot, how are you?
Quote from: Breezy on Jul 18, 2024, 01:21 PMHello doom bot, how are you?
So far so good. How about you? I saw multiple signs of weakness in markets. Acted accordingly by rebalncing my portfolio while raising some cash too & taking positions in 2 bear ETFs as well. For me my move was not bad.
Quote from: Mr Cashflow on Jul 18, 2024, 02:03 PMSo far so good. How about you? I saw multiple signs of weakness in markets. Acted accordingly by rebalncing my portfolio while raising some cash too & taking positions in 2 bear ETFs as well. For me my move was bad.
Too funny. Doom bot is likely owned by the same person that owns the Valuegrowth bot on Sharetrader.
Quote from: ValueNZ on Jul 18, 2024, 02:26 PMToo funny. Doom bot is likely owned by the same person that owns the Valuegrowth bot on Sharetrader.
Straight onto the ignore list, no mucking around.
Quote from: Mr Cashflow on Jul 18, 2024, 01:06 PMNasdaq is not looking good. Sell-off could spread to other markets NEXT
This isnt a market wide selloff - its the Mega Caps. Currently there are more S&P500 companies hitting new 52 week highs than hitting new 52 week lows. There is a rotation from Mega Caps to small and mid caps going on. So don't worry about the indexes, its the individual stock charts you want to be watching. Leaders lead. By the time enough leaders have broken out to move the index, you'll have missed all the action.
Screenshot 2024-07-29 214827.png
Here is where all the action is - the Russell 2000 (aka the small cap index). Its broken out of its base that its been stuck in since December 23. Here is where you want to be hunting the stocks that are beating the general market.
IWMJuly24.png
After a big run (especially in small caps) and a market blow off looking increasingly likely, it is timely to have a discussion about what to do when you are sitting on big gains, and don't want to give them back to the market.
David Ryan discusses this here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yuB7KMz6yQ
Personally, I have a large number of stocks that have just hit new highs, and they are a long way from any technical support level that I would normally use to set stop losses (eg. 200 day MA, last support/resistance level, or even a cross of the 13/50 day MAs). So I may need to implement a different sell methodology. Because its better to be sitting on cash waiting for stocks to come out of a Stage One base, then it is to sit through a Stage Three top, and a Stage Four downtrend.
Quote from: KW on Aug 04, 2024, 02:17 PMDavid Ryan discusses this here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yuB7KMz6yQ
Personally, I have a large number of stocks that have just hit new highs, and they are a long way from any technical support level that I would normally use to set stop losses (eg. 200 day MA, last support/resistance level, or even a cross of the 13/50 day MAs).
Thanks for posting incl the link to TWR.NZX
I'm in a similar position particularly your comment in bold above, and am keenly watching.
The market updates/results due mid to late Aug will guide a review of my holdings based on FA as well as the TA and I anticipate making corresponding changes/adjustments in my portfolio accordingly.
Quote from: Left Field on Aug 04, 2024, 05:26 PMThanks for posting incl the link to TWR.NZX
I'm in a similar position particularly your comment in bold above, and am keenly watching.
The market updates/results due mid to late Aug will guide a review of my holdings based on FA as well as the TA and I anticipate making corresponding changes/adjustments in my portfolio accordingly.
Funnily enough, when you ask the question, the Internet delivers :-)
Stan Weinstein (absolute legend) just popped up on the TraderLion Conference discussing EXACTLY this! So here you go. A brilliant analysis of the current state of the market, and what to do when stocks begin to roll over.
https://youtu.be/p6DFeXHqtsc?si=osf0odNNXgwVswLP
Come Monday, I am going to have a long hard look at my portfolio and set some stops while sitting in the airport lounge, and then I'm taking a vacation as Stan recommends ;D 8)
Only have 2 stocks below their 50 day MA. But with two 3% down days in a row, there might soon be a lot more! This is fugly stuff out there. Stay safe peeps. :o
Quote from: KW on Aug 04, 2024, 09:00 PMFunnily enough, when you ask the question, the Internet delivers :-)
Stan Weinstein (absolute legend) just popped up on the TraderLion Conference discussing EXACTLY this! So here you go. A brilliant analysis of the current state of the market, and what to do when stocks begin to roll over.
https://youtu.be/p6DFeXHqtsc?si=osf0odNNXgwVswLP
Come Monday, I am going to have a long hard look at my portfolio and set some stops while sitting in the airport lounge, and then I'm taking a vacation as Stan recommends ;D 8)
Safe travels KW.
I enjoyed watching Stan's comments, thank you.
Extremely relevant if you play the USA markets. I also read that Buffet has sold 50% of his Apple stock, (his remaining AAPL now likely free-hold.) These are key indicators that it is no time to be complacent, (particularly in USA stocks.)
That said, my modest portfolio is 100% NZX (call me crazy) and the NZX signals are somewhat different. Here's an interesting take on NZX stocks at the moment; https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523446/are-nz-equities-a-buy.html
So yes the USA may sneeze and the NZX may catch a cold..... however I'm playing it stock by stock and watching the NZX and 50 day MA very closely! My new mantra..... never be complacent.
Quote from: KW on Aug 04, 2024, 09:00 PMFunnily enough, when you ask the question, the Internet delivers :-)
Stan Weinstein (absolute legend) just popped up on the TraderLion Conference discussing EXACTLY this! So here you go. A brilliant analysis of the current state of the market, and what to do when stocks begin to roll over.
https://youtu.be/p6DFeXHqtsc?si=osf0odNNXgwVswLP
Come Monday, I am going to have a long hard look at my portfolio and set some stops while sitting in the airport lounge, and then I'm taking a vacation as Stan recommends ;D 8)
Have a safe journey KW.
Stanley Druckenmiller (the absolute legend, if you've never heard of him go google and watch some interviews) recently commented that this is the most volatile market he has ever experienced in his 40+ years of investing. And if you look at the charts, that is very clear. The upwards moves are large and long, while the corrections are hard and fast.
2025 is unlikely to be any different. It will require a delicate balance of sticking the uptrend during a correction, while selling out quickly if the trend changes, and learning to tell the difference. A correction that turns into a downtrend will be hard and fast, and will do a lot of damage.
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