https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405053
2023 New Year letter to investors. This is a nice initiative! Upbeat commentary. They feel that issues in Aust (delayed launches and supply chain pressures impacting margins) and other international markets are now behind them. Some interesting sounding drug development in the pipeline too. Forecast dividend for 2023 is still on.
Looks like they're working hard to improve shareholder comms, after previous criticism in this regard - like Jenny Ruth's Businessdesk article in Nov 2022. Hopefully, they'll address liquidity issues next.
Liquidity does not concern me as wife and I have the holdings we want,and doubt we will have cause to sell..
Once again for the purpose of full disclosure I have entered AFT, buying at $3.72
It has taken me a week and 9 trades to do it. Interesting to watch the spread of buy/sell. Suspect there is a bit of manipulation happening here.
I like their growth story, their geographic spread, they are profitable, debt is being paid down, and covid is evidence to me we are globally increaseing population of Well Worried Wealthy people. (The 3 W's!). And with a recession that means more headaches.
A1.png
Announced today a few more markets opened up "Maxigesic (will be)sold in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia. Registrations are already held in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia and Slovenia, where launches are planned for these countries during this year"
Quote from: Minimoke on Jan 24, 2023, 09:27 AMAnnounced today a few more markets opened up "Maxigesic (will be)sold in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia. Registrations are already held in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia and Slovenia, where launches are planned for these countries during this year"
Lots of headaches historically (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/russia-and-ukraine-the-tangled-history-that-connects-and-divides-them) in the Slavic states, they should do well!
AFT announce today they are entering the antibiotic eyedrop market. Look like they are doing a bit of a PEB. Product under development, needs regulatory approval and will be of benefit to insurance market.
To me the important distinction is they have flagged a 3 - 4 year time frame. So we won't get excited for some time yet.
Big deal announced.......USA FDA approval confirmed... SP tops the leader board
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407693
Good news for holders
Quote from: Left Field on Mar 02, 2023, 12:43 PMBig deal announced.......USA FDA approval confirmed... SP tops the leader board
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407693
Good news for holders
Now they just have to get on and sell it to doctors.
Results announcement Monday 22 May. That's another to put in the Diary
A solid enough result
"• Operating revenue up 20% on the prior year to $156.6 million, lifted by strong product sales growth in all regions and market channels.
• Operating profit of $19.7 million in line with the prior year's $20.4 million which was bolstered by significant licensing income.
• Operating profit from product sales and royalties (excluding licensing income) rose 38% to $18.8 million from $13.7 million in the prior year, despite increased investment to capitalise on growth opportunities.
• EBITDA steady at $21.4 million; Net profit after tax of $10.7 million amid higher finance costs and a return to paying tax.
• Net debt at $29.9 million in line with $29.3 million at the end of March 2022, with investments for growth funded through operating cash flows.
• Board declares maiden dividend of 1.1 cents per share.
• Near term rolling twelve-month stretch revenue target of $200 million in sight, underpinned by strong ongoing demand, product launches and the Maxigesic commercialisation programme.
• FY24 guidance for operating profit of $22 million to $24 million; this does not include $6 million of licensing income which is expected in the first half of calendar year 2024 on the launch of Maxigesic IV in the US."
Looking good for the future.
Market seems to like the result. Up 3.9% to $3.60.
I'm nearly out of the hole with this one.
Edit. And closed the day up 6.3% at $3.72. I'm evens on this now!
AFT today announce FDA has approved Maxigesic IV fro release into the USA - a Us$6.83b market.
Comes on top of approval for Maxigesic Rapid.
Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 18, 2023, 10:27 AMAFT today announce FDA has approved Maxigesic IV fro release into the USA - a Us$6.83b market.
Comes on top of approval for Maxigesic Rapid.
On the other hand - Maxigesic was never a new idea - doctors knew for ages that the combination of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen is more effective in pain relief than using any of the components on its own, and these days basically every manufacturer of painkillers has this combination in its sortiment: e.g. Nuromol, Ibupane, Norflex, Easolief DUO, ParfenCare, - or just the cheap generic (e.g made by Ethics or by Pharmacy Health). Ob viously - you could as well by generics of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen and get (taken together) esactly the same effect, just cheaper.
They all contain exactly the same stuff as Maxigesic (200mg Ibuprofen and 500 mg Paracetamol per tablet) - and consumers can buy whatever is cheapest and whatever brand they trust. I noticed most doctors here use now the brand Nuromol.
AFT has no moat, in new markets obviously no brand recognition, their product is just another "Me too" - the same as the others, and they have no IP at all.
So - who cares, in which other markets they might get approval? - don't expect them to be a winner :) ;
That's interesting BP. But they say it's patented medicine?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 18, 2023, 11:38 AMOn the other hand - Maxigesic was never a new idea - doctors knew for ages that the combination of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen is more effective in pain relief than using any of the components on its own, and these days basically every manufacturer of painkillers has this combination in its sortiment: e.g. Nuromol, Ibupane, Norflex, Easolief DUO, ParfenCare, - or just the cheap generic (e.g made by Ethics or by Pharmacy Health). Ob viously - you could as well by generics of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen and get (taken together) esactly the same effect, just cheaper.
They all contain exactly the same stuff as Maxigesic (200mg Ibuprofen and 500 mg Paracetamol per tablet) - and consumers can buy whatever is cheapest and whatever brand they trust. I noticed most doctors here use now the brand Nuromol.
AFT has no moat, in new markets obviously no brand recognition, their product is just another "Me too" - the same as the others, and they have no IP at all.
So - who cares, in which other markets they might get approval? - don't expect them to be a winner :) ;
The other side of the coin, is the growing keenness to address the US codeine use crisis will work for AFT. Analgesics are the prescribed alternative to opioids. As an aside this is something NZ is finally addressing too, as our overworked MDs have routinely doll out excessive amounts of codeine as a quick...fix.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Oct 18, 2023, 10:48 PMThe other side of the coin, is the growing keenness to address the US codeine use crisis will work for AFT. Analgesics are the prescribed alternative to opioids. As an aside this is something NZ is finally addressing too, as our overworked MDs have routinely doll out excessive amounts of codeine as a quick...fix.
Not quite sure these are alternatives .... just get yourself some oral surgery, and you probably will find out that the doctor prescribes both to be taken concurrently (Paracetamol / Ibuprofen AND codein).
There are as well comments from the medical side not recommending it as alternative to codein:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/nuromol-not-alternative-to-codeine-says-pharmacist/086599f7-e8a3-47d1-a7a6-7f9086d106f2#:~:text=Although%2C%20Nurofen%20and%20Nuromol%20manufacturer,paracetamol%20(1000mg)%20combination%20analgesics.
Just for understanding - Nuromol is exactly the same stuff as Maxigesic, just coming from a better known manufacturer.
But it doesn't really matter - Paracetamol / Ibuprofen (which AFT likes to call Maxigesic) is a useful combination to manage pain, my point was just - it is in no way special to AFT. All big drug dealers offer this combination under various names, and the only thing which is different is the print on the box and potentially the price. However - Maxigesic was never particularly cheap - you can get the exact same medication from a generic manufacturer for 1/10th of the price.
Why would the US go for an unknown NZ manufacturer, if they have already plenty of alternatives from established drug companies? Just another "Me Too" - product.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 19, 2023, 09:58 AMAll big drug dealers offer this combination under various names
That's a pretty big claim...have you got a source for that? Or do you mean all big drug companies that sell some sort of paracetamol and/or ibuprofen analgesics? I'm aware there a number of drug companies who sell neither individually nor the two combined. Here is a helpful list if you want to prove that claim:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_biomedical_companies_by_revenue
Cheers
Sound result....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422198
HIGHLIGHTS
• Half-year operating revenue up 27% to $84 million, lifted by 24% growth in product sales and royalties across all channels and territories and $2.0 million of licensing income.
• Sales in International and Asian markets (excluding licensing income) rise 94%.
• Operating profit of $3.3 million down 6% following ongoing significant investment in research and development and marketing; spend is weighted toward 1H 24. EBITDA1 of $4.1 million down 8%.
• Net profit after tax increases 17% to $1.8 million;
Another announcement today from AFT on entering into another research project.
This may or may not lead to something. But I do like how they continue to keep share holders informed on their activities.
Quote from: Minimoke on Oct 18, 2023, 10:27 AMAFT today announce FDA has approved Maxigesic IV fro release into the USA - a Us$6.83b market.
Comes on top of approval for Maxigesic Rapid.
Just 5 months later AFT announc
"AFT Pharmaceuticals (NZX: AFT, ASX: AFP) announces Maxigesic IV(R), the patented intravenous form of its family of pain relief medicines, has today been launched in the US by its licensee Hikma Pharmaceuticals.
The launch of the medicine, under the brand Combogesic IV(R), is the first patented, New Zealand developed medicine with clinical studies in the world's largest healthcare market. The first commercial sale of the medicine in the
US is expected in the coming weeks, a milestone that will trigger a US$6 million licensee fee to AFT and its development partner Belgium's Hyloris Pharmaceuticals.
AFT expects its share of this license fee to accrue in the current financial year (estimated at around NZ$6 million)......"
Minor upgrade....... hardly exciting.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426277
AFT updates operating profit guidance to $23m to $25m
AFT Pharmaceuticals (NZX: AFT, ASX: AFP) today announces an update to guidance for the financial year to the end of March 2024 (FY 24).
The update follows a review of January trading and news that Hikma Pharmaceuticals, the US licensee of Maxigesic® IV, has made its first sale of the intravenous pain relief medicine, an event that triggers a US$6 million license fee payment to AFT and its development partner Belgium's Hyloris Pharmaceuticals.
Quote from: Left Field on Feb 16, 2024, 09:01 AMMinor upgrade....... hardly exciting.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426277
AFT updates operating profit guidance to $23m to $25m
AFT Pharmaceuticals (NZX: AFT, ASX: AFP) today announces an update to guidance for the financial year to the end of March 2024 (FY 24).
The update follows a review of January trading and news that Hikma Pharmaceuticals, the US licensee of Maxigesic® IV, has made its first sale of the intravenous pain relief medicine, an event that triggers a US$6 million license fee payment to AFT and its development partner Belgium's Hyloris Pharmaceuticals.
Update ....not really an upgrade
Just as well that license fee is coming through other wise it seems profit would have been $16m to $18m v guidance $22m to $24m
Still $23m pretty good compared to $20.4m two years ago and $19.7m last year ...but gobs comments above are interesting
Results out today.
First something that makes AFT very investable "We hire the 'best person' for the job, regardless of gender, age, and culture, and incentivise our people in a way that is aligned with the long-term success of the company"
Then. Revenue up, cost of sales up but gross progit up to $88.2m from $72.9m
Profit after tax UP to $15.6m from $10.6m
Current assepts $145m exeed curetn liablites of $46m. And I like how recievable exceed payables ($44m vs $33m)
Interest bearing debt down $4m to $28m
Despite paying down debt they are increasing divided from $0.011 to $0.16
$200m revenue target well within sight and $300m now new target.
Whats not to like? (Putting aside overweight ownership by one person)
Pleasing to see they are now delivering on their promises.
Just posting the link tp today's release
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431506
HIGHLIGHTS
• Full-year operating revenue up 25% to $195.4 million, lifted by 20% growth in product sales and royalties across all channels and territories and $8.5 million of licensing income.
• Sales in International and Asian markets (excluding licensing income) rise 70%.
• Record EBITDA2 of $26.2 million up 22% and Operating Profit of $24.2 million up 23%.
• Net profit after tax increases 46% to $15.6 million.
• Net debt of $16.2 million down from $29.9 million at the end of FY23.
• Dividend declared of 1.6 cents per share, (1.1 cents declared FY23).
• Maxigesic® IV launched in the US in February 2024 following FDA approval. Advancing plans for the launch of the antiseptic cream Crystaderm® this calendar year in China, the world's second largest healthcare market.
• Near term rolling twelve-month stretch revenue target of $200 million in touching distance and now focused on $300 million target.
• FY 25 guidance for operating profit of $22 million to $25 million.
Quote from: Minimoke on May 23, 2024, 09:06 AMResults out today.
First something that makes AFT very investable "We hire the 'best person' for the job, regardless of gender, age, and culture, and incentivise our people in a way that is aligned with the long-term success of the company"
Then. Revenue up, cost of sales up but gross progit up to $88.2m from $72.9m
Profit after tax UP to $15.6m from $10.6m
Current assepts $145m exeed curetn liablites of $46m. And I like how recievable exceed payables ($44m vs $33m)
Interest bearing debt down $4m to $28m
Despite paying down debt they are increasing divided from $0.011 to $0.16
$200m revenue target well within sight and $300m now new target.
Whats not to like? (Putting aside overweight ownership by one person)
Whats not to like?
Well, I guess most investors would need more than just a cheap anti wokie pleaser to consider a company as "investable".
While the SP wobbled up and down over the last 10 years full of promises, the share is now basically the same price as it was in late 2015. Did they ever pay dividends? Investors can't eat promises!
Their statement re selecting the right people stands next to all the promises they regularly make. Pretty mediocre management team, but they might be good in producing weak promises and anti wokie pleasers (which is easy and free)!
If the best people they hired happened to manage over 10 years to make no gain at all - maybe they should have just hired one person to bury the talent the company may or may not have had ...
Ah yes - and if I might direct your view to the SP trend - share is in a downtrend for the last 3.5 years or so.
Really - what's not to like?
Any moat you can see? Their cash cow hopeful is still just a mixture of generic paracetamol and generic Ibuprufen ... anybody can get the same effect without paying AFT's pharmacy prices ...
Anyway - good luck to investors ...
On the other hand ... market takes - following these results - a huge leap upwards. At time of writing already 164 shares changed hands at 10am for $3 each and 2 (two) shares subsequently at 10:39 pushing the SP into the stratosphere: $3.04!
Somebody prepared to gamble the farm?
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 23, 2024, 10:57 AMOn the other hand ... market takes - following these results - a huge leap upwards. At time of writing already 164 shares changed hands at 10am for $3 each and 2 (two) shares subsequently at 10:39 pushing the SP into the stratosphere: $3.04!
Somebody prepared to gamble the farm?
Market may have been swayed by Nadia Farm
Well lets look at the chart then.
I agree. SP has gone now where since the beginning of this chart. But then basically no one was investing in AFT until the 2020. Anyone investing prior to 2020 had loads of exit opportunities and make good coin (as evidenced by increased volume
I agree. Investing during covid times (early 2021 onwards) has been fraught with difficulty for many companies so AFT is not alone on that front.
Since you choose to use pejorative terms like "anti-woke" then I'l point you to HGH and SML to see how "woke" has served these companies.
I was posting about today's results. It wasn't a history lesson. And my question remains.
At the same time I take into account that wise advise - never buy in a down trend. Investors need to decide, on the basis of this news that May 2024 and macro / micro economic circumstances is the "picking the bottom"
aft.png
Quote from: Minimoke on May 23, 2024, 11:07 AMSince you choose to use pejorative terms like "anti-woke" then I'l point you to HGH and SML to see how "woke" has served these companies.
Agreed. I never said that ESG or anti-ESG statements from companies (i.e. no matter which side of the polarised world we live in one supports) add any value. Not for SML, not for HGH and not for AFT.
I was just surprised that you indicated this anti-woke statement from AFT makes them "investable"- or did I misread you post?
Anybody who wants to assess the quality of their management just needs to look at their historic performance ... and when you say that other companies suffered as well during that time I invite you to compare AFT over the last decade with (e.g.) FPH or Ebos (both in the same industry, and both nearly quadrupled their SP over the last decade. Tough times? Hmm ...). AFT did not even manage to capitalise on the Covid boost, I guess how inept is this for a medical company selling (well, mainly) painkillers? I heard painkillers have been in demand during Covid - and AFT didn't even manage to capitalise on that.
So - they worked in an industry just splashing in money over the last 5 years or so - and poor inept AFT missed out. Is this how you recognise investable companies? Did they change anything since this disastrous performance other than slinging anti woke slogans?
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 23, 2024, 12:27 PMAgreed. I never said that ESG or anti-ESG statements from companies (i.e. no matter which side of the polarised world we live in one supports) add any value. Not for SML, not for HGH and not for AFT.
I was just surprised that you indicated this anti-woke statement from AFT makes them "investable"- or did I misread you post?
Anybody who wants to assess the quality of their management just needs to look at their historic performance ... and when you say that other companies suffered as well during that time I invite you to compare AFT over the last decade with (e.g.) FPH or Ebos (both in the same industry, and both nearly quadrupled their SP over the last decade. Tough times? Hmm ...). AFT did not even manage to capitalise on the Covid boost, I guess how inept is this for a medical company selling (well, mainly) painkillers? I heard painkillers have been in demand during Covid - and AFT didn't even manage to capitalise on that.
So - they worked in an industry just splashing in money over the last 5 years or so - and poor inept AFT missed out. Is this how you recognise investable companies? Did they change anything since this disastrous performance other than slinging anti woke slogans?
You misread my post. My opening words were 'First something ...". I didn't think I needed to emphasise the word "something". It is one thing. Not everything. Which is why I went on to post metrics on performance.
I consider companies who over indulge in DEI as uninvesibale - and I listed two companies as examples. I could have added the Warehouse and a pile more. Its a very clear sign to me they don't actually have shareholders best interests at heart. Its a rule of thumb I use. Others can choose other selection criteria.
My post was about today's results. It wasn't a history lesson. Nor was it an exercise in comparing one investment opportunity with another. As I say - it was a post based on the actual results achieved in the past year.
At face value it looks, to me "investable" especially if I choose to compare with today's other announcement MFB.
But it should go without saying (but obviously I need to) you shouldn't form an investment decision firstly of some random post on an internet forum . Nor without doing more due diligence.
And since when is hiring on merit ("best person") "antiwoke" I find that quite bizarre. Any company that sets forth to hire the best people are eminently investible (all other things considered) because they are setting down solid business foundations.
Ibuprofen was not recommended for Covid symptoms as it was believed to exacerbate the condition. A bit of research goes a long way.
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1086
And despite this advice probably being completely useless and untrue (like all the other Covid advice), people at the time probably believed it.
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 23, 2024, 12:27 PM......
So - they worked in an industry just splashing in money over the last 5 years or so - and poor inept AFT missed out. Is this how you recognise investable companies? Did they change anything since this disastrous performance other than slinging anti woke slogans?
A bit slack of me I know. But I can't be posting every day.
Consequently I missed posting the ACC on market purchases of 1,152,018 shares for $2,995,246.80 between 14 Jan and 14 may this year. Which makes them a substantial holder with 6.047%
Looking more investable than not to me.
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 23, 2024, 10:57 AMOn the other hand ... market takes - following these results - a huge leap upwards. At time of writing already 164 shares changed hands at 10am for $3 each and 2 (two) shares subsequently at 10:39 pushing the SP into the stratosphere: $3.04!
Somebody prepared to gamble the farm?
You might want to give the market time to wake up, get out of bed and digest the news.
Market closed up 4.67% to $3.14
Just as AFT share price was looking like going somewhere its heading back to 3 bucks again
Ah well, not really a company I follow (anymore), but remember the talk of their CEO at the NZSA many years ago. Often a good sign that the company is desperate to find new shareholders - and cheap talk in front of potential shareholders (vs. demonstrating performance) is their last resort.
Just saw this article in the business desk:
https://businessdesk.co.nz/markets/announcements-generated-by-ai/aft-pharmaceuticals-expects-2m-operating-loss
(probably paywalled and lacking any new information (AI generated) not worthwhile to subscribe.
So, a loss it is (first HY) ... thanks to all these new markets they proudly touted around for the last decade, which all add to their cost but not to their earnings. What a surprise. But anyway - the second HY will make it all good again. Where have we heard that before?
But hey - just looking at their long term trend - their share just reached 2016 level, didn't it? ... and as far as I can see only in two years a tiny dividend paid: 1.1 cents per share in 2023 and 1.6 cents in 2024. Just wondering what they will pay after this years loss?
AFT long - Copy.JPG
I guess based on FA it was always highly likely that this company will be a disappointer (a me-too without new ideas and without any worthwhile IP), but for sure - any good trader might have made good coin. April 2019 to April 2020 was great for traders, and the rest of the time was great for shorters.
Peter ..AFT not too bad ...they've trebled revenues since 2016
That's pretty good
I'm with BP on this one. The IP of this company is ostensibly nothing more than a brand and has no substance behind it. As he has quite correctly warned several times before, it's very inexpensive to combine generic brand paracetamol and ibuprofen together to get exactly the same effect for a fraction of the price. Pretty ugly looking chart. Shares have done a round trip to nowhere in the last 9 years and in the last 4 have been in a steady decline. Noting also the pathetic dividend yield of just 0.54% (off Jarden website).
Market spoken after that announcement last week
Getting close to 52 week low
New 52 week low at $2.56 today
Long way from 52 week high of $3.58
Reaction to possible loss been brutal
Are they seen as being exposed to what Trump might get up to?
Getting close to take a punt ..it's Cup Week after all
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 12, 2024, 07:08 PMNew 52 week low at $2.56 today
Long way from 52 week high of $3.58
Reaction to possible loss been brutal
Are they seen as being exposed to what Trump might get up to?
Getting close to take a punt ..it's Cup Week after all
Might be risky. Not everything which drops is going to bounce. What do you see in their fundamentals tempting you?
Jeez, another down day to close at $2.48
Multi year low in spite of all those positive announcements over the last five years
New Year's newsletter seem rather long winded so didn't read but got AI to summarise -
AFT Pharmaceuticals New Year Letter to Investors
AFT Pharmaceuticals aims for record sales exceeding $200M in FY25, targeting $300M by FY27.
Key growth strategies include expanding product portfolios in Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, and South Africa.
New product launches in Europe and China are underway.
R&D pipeline includes 24 hospital injectables and various topical treatments.
E-commerce initiatives are progressing, with significant sales growth.
Financial management remains cautious, focusing on geographic expansion and product introduction
All this might happen by 2026
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 13, 2025, 08:41 AMNew Year's newsletter seem rather long winded so didn't read but got AI to summarise -
AFT Pharmaceuticals New Year Letter to Investors
AFT Pharmaceuticals aims for record sales exceeding $200M in FY25, targeting $300M by FY27.
Key growth strategies include expanding product portfolios in Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, and South Africa.
New product launches in Europe and China are underway.
R&D pipeline includes 24 hospital injectables and various topical treatments.
E-commerce initiatives are progressing, with significant sales growth.
Financial management remains cautious, focusing on geographic expansion and product introduction
All this might happen by 2026
I think the down channel is even without AI support visible.
Anyway - I plan to aim in 2026 with my pellet gun at the moon. Will I hit it, though? Same thing.
AFT keep churning out investor updaters but the posivity never seems to boost the share prices ...always seems to fall back to $260/$280 ,...and currently near to multi year low
Forbsr had a price target of $4.60 not that long ago but AFT remains unloved
AFT SP looks to have moved into an uptrend (based on limited TA knowledge). This combined with what I am expecting to be positive fundamental news flow off the back of their $300m revenue target should help the SP grind higher and higher.
Disc. hold.
Quote from: Rawz on Oct 16, 2025, 10:50 AMAFT SP looks to have moved into an uptrend (based on limited TA knowledge). This combined with what I am expecting to be positive fundamental news flow off the back of their $300m revenue target should help the SP grind higher and higher.
Disc. hold.
Hmm - yes, SP managed to get over MA50 and MA200 - and even went through MA400.
Could be a trend change or could be just onother of these blibs the SP had throughout the big downtrend since 2020.
I stopped a long time ago to follow them ... did they change their strategy to spread potentially good sounding data without revenue impact? You mention a revenue goal. More interesting would be - do they make money at a reasonable PE and is earnings growth visible? Their only economically interesting tablet used to be to put Aspirin plus Ibuprufen into one tablet. Obviously - every doctor and most other people know about that and get the same benefit by just prescribing / buying cheap aspirin plus cheap Ibuprofen instead of buying an expensive Maxigesic.
Do they have anything which customers can't get much cheaper in the boxes next to theirs ...
Last 5 years eps have been 7,19,10,15 and 11cps according to invest directs website, (that track record of eps does not inspire me at all in the context of a FY25 PE of 26 times earnings). Sales growth is one thing, eps growth is quite another.
Just as well the future is going to be so much different with average broker forecasts of 16, 20 and 25 cps in the next 3 years https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AFT-PHARMACEUTICALS-LIMIT-27329668/finances/
I wrote a detailed post recently wherein I stated my belief that 80-90% weight should be put on what a company has actually achieved in the last 5 years and 10-20% on what they say they're going to do in the future. Brokers think its worth $3.80. Best wishes to shareholders. Its not for me.
Do they have anything which customers can't get much cheaper in the boxes next to theirs ...
[/quote]
Many Hospital medications, although I cant find a list of them
I like their products and the sector.Their Crystaderm first aid cream is excellent.
Yes I once held and sold because they did not achieve what they said they would do.
However, I have kept watching them, and after seeing their share price break through the resistance level ,I bought back in at $2.99 and $3.01 on Tuesday.
"This time it is different"...lol
AFT have a very long track record of growing top line. 14% CAGR over the last 15 years. to achieve FY27 $300m revenue target they imply the growth is stepping up to 20% p.a.
cashflow/ EPS is of course most important but its impacted by one off milestone payments and R&D which they can tip as much as they want into. last year they spent 20% more than the previous. A lot of this investment is going to start paying off.
We have continued to invest for the long-term
significantly advancing our strategy to extend
our reach across multiple geographies and added
to our research and development (R&D) pipeline.
These efforts have come at the cost of short-term
earnings growth, but we are convinced they will
deliver growth in long term shareholder value.
AFT have been self funding for awhile now. No cap raises required and they are starting to pay divvys.
Rawz, love it when you get excited about a stock. Usually a good sign
The charts in your favour ...big impending uptrend for AFT just like the good ol days
IMG_6253.jpeg
10th consecutive first half revenue increase and improved profitability for AFT's 1st half:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/462998
Highlights
• Half-year operating revenue rises 33% to $114.9 million
• EBITDA2 of $6.6 million
• Operating profit of $4.7 million up from prior period losses
• Net profit after tax of $2.7 million
Pleasing seeing them do as they said they would.
AFT remains on track to deliver a FY 26 operating profit within the previously outlined range of $20 million to $24 million. The company also reiterates its confidence in its pathway to $300 million annual revenue in FY 27, supported by
the launch schedule, our licensing program, the scaling of international hubs and continued geographic expansion.
https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/afp/corporate-spotlight/
Hartley on HC again.
https://hotcopper.com.au/news/the-watchlist/153465/fridge-free-drugs-global-markets-how-aft-are-targeting-a-6-billion-opportunity/
From a broker's research.
....................2025A.................2026 E.................2027E...................2028E
EPS...............10.9.....................15.6......................20..........................20.75
EPS Growth.............43.7%...................28.2%.................37.5%........................Average eps growth 34.46%
Current PE ratio is 21.63 giving a PEG ratio of [21.63] Divided by [av growth] 34.46 of well under one at .627.
Market Screener.
EPS.............11...................15.84..........................19.4....................24.65.
the thing a lot of people might miss with AFT is just how much investment has been occurring. ie, a lot of R&D, and a lot of investment (but probably opex) from starting up these new offices etc in many different countries.
the company has ben achieving v good revenue growth - old products growing plus new product launches - and has a v good pipeline of opportunities (to sell more old products, with contributions from new and all supported by the R&D pipeline and contributions from new offices globally).
I'm a zulu principle follower/proponent, and think this is almost a zulu stock. it is just that you have to look thru a lot of the investment and currently suppressed profits to see a more appropriate/satisfactory level of earnings and earnings growth.
the track record of growth (in revenue) is good, and the projections are bullish ($200m then $300m) and are being maintained ... might we be on the cusp of seeing the growth in profits. I think so.
OnwardsNupwards. Welcome to the forum. You could have a good point but maybe that's already factored into the share price ?
I prefer to take a wider lens than Lorriana has above and note the company started making money in 2020, 12 cps. If they hit the average (note there's only 2 analysts covering it) eps forecast for FY28 of 24.95 cps over 8 years that's a CAGR in EPS of 9.58%. Forward PE is 23 so I make the PEG ratio 2.4.
Using my standard GARP valuation value finding formula of no growth PE of 8.5 + 1 PE extra for each 1% CAGR growth that gives a suggested good value target of (8.5 + 9.58) x forward EPS of 15.62 = $2.82.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AFT-PHARMACEUTICALS-LIMIT-27329668/finances/
On visible earnings this screens well outside my good value GARP valuation criteria and I'm also noting the very low dividend yield so its probably not for me.
For others, the $64,000 question is, to what extent might earnings be currently suppressed through R&D and expansion costs that have to be expensed ?
Just out of curiosity, what percentage of their sales are Maxigesic, the effects of which can easily be replicated with a combination of two cheap generic brand products ?
Rawz from other place reminds us that they are going to build on their already very strong track record of growth (15 year revenue CAGR of 14%).
Quote from: lorraina on Oct 17, 2025, 08:35 AMI like their products and the sector.Their Crystaderm first aid cream is excellent.
Yes I once held and sold because they did not achieve what they said they would do.
However, I have kept watching them, and after seeing their share price break through the resistance level ,I bought back in at $2.99 and $3.01 on Tuesday.
"This time it is different"...lol
Well it certainly is different this time..lol.
Av buy price $3.00.Closed tonight at $3.72 ....up now a handsome 24% in 3 months and momentum is building...
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 16, 2026, 06:01 PMWell it certainly is different this time..lol.
Av buy price $3.00.Closed tonight at $3.72 ....up now a handsome 24% in 3 months and momentum is building...
Wow ....100% annualised return
Good effort ...and more to come no doubt
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2026, 06:09 PMWow ....100% annualised return
Good effort ...and more to come no doubt
I must having been sleeping with the light on, or drinking Red Bull, or something in October as I also bought a very small holding in RKT Rocketdna on ASX.
Small company supplying drone services to very large companies.Well paid 1.4cps and they finished up tonight at 3.3cps up a lovely 135%..
Leave you to work out the annualised return....lol
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2026, 02:15 PMOnwardsNupwards. Welcome to the forum. You could have a good point but maybe that's already factored into the share price ?
I prefer to take a wider lens than Lorriana has above and note the company started making money in 2020, 12 cps. If they hit the average (note there's only 2 analysts covering it) eps forecast for FY28 of 24.95 cps over 8 years that's a CAGR in EPS of 9.58%. Forward PE is 23 so I make the PEG ratio 2.4.
Using my standard GARP valuation value finding formula of no growth PE of 8.5 + 1 PE extra for each 1% CAGR growth that gives a suggested good value target of (8.5 + 9.58) x forward EPS of 15.62 = $2.82.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AFT-PHARMACEUTICALS-LIMIT-27329668/finances/
On visible earnings this screens well outside my good value GARP valuation criteria and I'm also noting the very low dividend yield so its probably not for me.
For others, the $64,000 question is, to what extent might earnings be currently suppressed through R&D and expansion costs that have to be expensed ?
Just out of curiosity, what percentage of their sales are Maxigesic, the effects of which can easily be replicated with a combination of two cheap generic brand products ?
Hi Basil.
valuation is the key question. because of all the short term costs from AFT's investments I think it is v. hard to value. eg, what is its underlying earning power on an sustainable / enduring basis. By that I mean when the earnings are not suppressed by the short term investment bubble it seems AFT is experiencing. the MD has been v clear that it is occuring, but how much $m are we talking. it is hard to guess. SO what is the right number to put into your graham formula?? I think a 9.5% growth rate for the next couple of years could well prove too low. two examples of this. First, revenues are forecast to grow fast than that rate - with positive operating leverage, earnings should grow faster. second, current earnings would be higher if the company invested less for the medium term.
all that said, the analysts have been burned before with their AFT forecasts, and it is hard to get a handle on the true earning power of the company. an investment in AFT does require some faith - which is a little uncomfortable. but there are so few NZX companies with good medium/longer term growth aspirations.
In the interests of full disclosure, I should add that I got set in AFT last year (when you could buy at prices below and at your $2.82), and the share price has run well of late. I've tried to buy more recently, but the price was a bit rich.
GLTAH
I agree AFT is a bit hard to value, especially using Basils method which works nicely with the likes of TRA and HLG etc. but I'd say little point using it with AFT given the investments they are making for the long term.
This is why I have been looking at revenue- and bang on about their 15year 14% CAGR which is stepping up to 20% annual growth based on their revenue forecasts.
Kinda like Amazon back in the day.. no point in looking at EPS right now. (I'm certainly not implying AFT is an Amazon).
One thing I would say is if the share market was to close down for the next 10years and you had to have your portfolio in one stock, AFT would have to be at the top of the list. How bout that
Very positve results. And market likes it. Up 9% to $3.85 at the moment
FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE YEAR TO 31 MARCH 2026
AFT delivers double digit revenue growth and record earnings
Operating profit of $24.4 million ahead of the guidance range
HIGHLIGHTS
• Full year operating revenue up 22% to $254.7 million (FY25: $208.0 million), driven by double-digit sales growth across all territories
• Product sales and royalties up 21% to $251.6 million (FY25: $207.4 million), supported by growth in Australia (19%), a 66% lift in international and 41% in Asia
• Licensing income of $3.1 million (FY25: $0.7 million), reflecting increasing momentum in out-licensing and milestone activity
• EBITDA of $28.8 million (FY25: $20.9 million) and operating profit of $24.4 million (FY25: $17.6 million) as earnings growth offset significant investment in international business hubs and R&D
• Net profit after tax increased 24% to $14.1 million (FY25: $11.4 million)
• Balance sheet remains strong. Net debt of $38.6 million (FY25: $14.5 million), as the company expanded working capital and acquired existing products in South Africa reflecting continued investment in growth
• Dividend of 2.5 cents per share declared (FY25: 1.8 cents per share), reflecting confidence in the company's outlook
• Ongoing significant investment with FY27 guidance for increased operating profit of $28 million to $32 million; targeting $300 million plus revenue for FY27
Forbar have eps ;
2026 13.4 cps 2027 19.2 cps 2028 25.2 cps,2029 33.4 cps.
EPS growth........43.28%................31.25%..........32,5%..........Average 35,67%
ASB have current PE at 27.4 .so 27.4 divided by Growth 35.67 gives a PEG of .768 which is well under 1.
I added to my AFT holding this morning.