Labour will lose the 2023 election
Property will fall by another 10-20%
RYM will do a capital raise
OCA will still attract an inordinate number of posts on both sites as people struggle to reconcile all the positive talk from the company with its poor financial results
HLG will stun to the upside with earnings and dividends that will really please shareholders
The market will have another tough year with minimal overall returns
Bonds will perform well
The war in Ukraine will continue all year and fuel prices will take off again
Inflation will cool to 5% by year end
The Reserve Bank will remain behind the curve and will eventually look really stupid as they overtighten and keep rates higher for longer than is necessary.
Bealge will catch a large Kingfish from his new boat this summer and be absolutely ecstatic about it.
I Predict
1. the beagle continues to talk his book...until he's moved on to something else
2. Labour loose, jacinda doesn't stand for pm and relocates to Europe
3. Shares very volatile but very little overall growth
4. Fixed interest and corporate bonds perform
5. Oil and gas surge on cold weather and limited supply in Europe and people realise you can't turn them off and renewables on that quickly
6.oca stage recovery..the beagle announces he took an oversized position a few months back
Happy fishing Beagle and thanks for all your time and effort posting your musings on the forum.
Hope your got some good divies stashed..filling up the boat on diesel can't be much fun ::)
1. Synlait will be a star performer. Ryman will be amongst the worst.
2. In an "I have seen the light" fervor, the Beagle will embrace ECG accounting metrics.
3. The long awaited Mod revival sweeps the fashion and music scenes. HLG slow to embrace the new trend, marked by a refusal to stock Zoot Suits
4. All Blacks lose the World Cup - unconvincing in pool play and tipped over in quarters. Scott Robertson has already signed for another nation. Rugby's trajectory to a national obscurity gathers pace.
5. Winston Peters like a Phoenix from the flame will again hold sway on the election result.
Who is this masked beagle - I only see a fragrant herb on this site 8)
My predictions which you can all mock me for in 12 months and 12 days time:
1) No recession in NZ in 2023, in other words we do not have 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during 2023
2) David Seymour gets a ministerial appointment in 2023
3) NZ median house price to stabilise i.e. annual growth >= 0% as measured from 31 Dec 2022 to 31 Dec 2023
4) and H1 of 2023 will have plenty of opportunities to buy the dip of the dippity dip with share prices rebounding in H2
All are based on the assumption there is not another pandemic, or significant world health event, in 2023. Otherwise anything can happen.
Quote from: Crackity on Dec 19, 2022, 02:38 PMWho is this masked beagle - I only see a fragrant herb on this site 8)
The term is just so overloaded. In Faulty Towers I understand they used this name for the owner of the Etablissement.
Anyway, I gave up to make share market forecasts, given that wisdom comes with the recognition that the old saying "Nobody can predict the future" does have its merits.
However:
- I am sure that the correlation between analyst forecasts and market trends will stay over time the same it always used to be (basically uncorrelated). I am sure that people will continue to boost whenever their predictions have been right and they will continue to forget whenever their predictions failed.
- Politically I think its too early days to call the race. While Labour from the current perspective clearly deserves to lose, am I not yet sure, whether National would deserve to win, and you can't have two losers, can you? On reflection though I think you can. I predict that one of the contenders will lose and the public of NZ will lose out as well (no matter which of the parties win).
- The war in the Ukraine is in my view not better predictable than the default of the old Sowjetunion in the early 90'ies. Whatever happens - it will be a surprise to some people.
- I don't expect energy prices (despite some volatility) to contribute to further inflation, which means overall inflation numbers should drop. Hey, here is a forecast at last. It will be either right or wrong.
I reckon 2023 will be marked by China getting crushed by repeated COVID waves and increasing civil unrest, Ukraine/Russia war ceasefire around November, OPEC output cuts, NZ market up 0-5% with inflation staying above 4% entire year, Onslow gets binned, HPI down for the year. I will be correct on at least one of these I think, and I will feel very wise. In saying that, maybe if I get them all wrong I can become a reserve bank economist ;D
Ah, the tea leaves ... I predict:
1. Labour will go for an early election to try and pre-empt further falls in the polls.
2. Labour will still lose the election and Jacinda will head to the UN.. or wherever .. who cares...
3. National will get caught out by early election by not having policies embedded, but still get in with Act vote.
4. New govt will open the border to immigrants and begin an economic recovery.
5. Mortgagee sales will become frequent in H2 for those who bought in the last 2 years on 80% borrowing but ease as economic recovery kicks in, and this sector will constitute the NZ recession.
6. Beagle catches a bloody big snapper before 1 Jan 2023. ;D
Why a big snapper and not a kingfish ... because big kingfish like to lurk near rocks, buoys and marker poles ... not a good place to take a new boat.
1/ National and Act form the next government. Nz first gets over 5 percent and sits in cross bench's.
2/ House prices will continue slow decline but will end the year increasing. Supply and demand will kick in. Builders will slow building until market demand comes back. National will bin Labours interest deductibility on rentals and other stupid changes. The door will open on immigration and property will continue to be a great asset to build serious wealth.
3/ It will be a great year for stocks with serious money to be made or lost. Some investors will learn the hard way just how important diversification and quality is.
4/ NZ will miss a recession .....just.
5/ National will stop Onslow going any further, if it has not already been shelved.
6/ The warm waters will bring more sub tropical fish to our shores. Marlin will be plentiful.
Merry Xmas everybody and thanks to the administration of this site for running an excellent forum.
I predict Adrian Orr will over react and crush the economy whilst making unemployment rise and killing inflation completely.
I predict house prices down another 15%
I predict the NZX 50 will have one of it's worst years ever end down 15%
I predict another bad year for retirement stock but a recovery latter in 2023
Mark Lister's thoughts for 2023.
https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/12/looking-ahead-to-2023?utm_source=insights-enews-201222&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=looking-ahead-to-2023&_cldee=FPQwTuw46RP6rgD2YqJzT5BFdBQRD8swoOgJ7VCg4W_cKUut4ElStcOREKQgq75T&recipientid=contact-f4e18c1d7f2de8119427005056a307fc-0e5f93bf63b0422c821f71528d037a31&esid=6e9745ae-427f-ed11-a2db-00505681265f
"I predict Adrian Orr will over react and crush the economy whilst making unemployment rise and killing inflation completely.
I predict house prices down another 15%
I predict the NZX 50 will have one of it's worst years ever end down 15%"
perma bear ....
reaching for the whisky already... oh dear...
if that comes to pass then it ORR who needs to be crushed ... or sent down the river and washed out to sea...
there is a german data scientist in the North Island who knocked together some models on a couple of computers in his uni office that provided more up to date data then Stats NZ and the reserve bank.
They ignored him cause who knows why... cuase we know better dont we...
hiding their pencils and paper...
Jacinda steps down before the election, announcing she is pregnant again. National win the election.
Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 20, 2022, 06:17 AM2/ House prices will continue slow decline but will end the year increasing. Supply and demand will kick in. Builders will slow building until market demand comes back. National will bin Labours interest deductibility on rentals and other stupid changes. The door will open on immigration and property will continue to be a great asset to build serious wealth.
Never really understood this sentiment that is so common amoungst kiwis. A good book to read is Irrational Exurberance wherin Robert Shiller explains that over the long run, given comparable properties and section sizes there has generally been NONE or very little increases in house prices in real terms (after inflation). And why should property value growth exceed inflation? After all is not a house made of things that over the long run increase roughly in line with inflation, and there has never been a land scarcity issue except in major cities.
If the 2000-2100 period follows the 1890-2000 period you could possibly get absolutely destroyed levering up.
Seems to be just a wonderful bubble based on debt, speculation and regulations. Ask yourself if it is normal that a low risk investment that rarely goes down can deliver returns in excess of 50-60% per year to a levered property owner like the last 10 years.
" It is true that, for the United States as a whole, real home prices were 66 percent higher in 2004 than in 1890, according to the index my research assistants and I have put together. But all of that increase occurred in two brief periods: the time right after World War II and since 1998.
Other than those two periods, real home prices overall have been mostly flat or declining. Moreover, the overall increase, including the booms, is not very impressive -- 0.4 percent a year."
https://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/
Some good charts:
RealHousingPrices_1890_2010_log-thumb-570x406-45789.png
Screenshot-2022-02-08-201603.png
Anyway sorry for the distraction please keep going.
Merry christmas too everyone :) It's a great time of the year to remember how fortunate we all are to live in a good country and speculate on the capital markets.
Quote from: Gerald on Dec 20, 2022, 10:27 PMNever really understood this sentiment that is so common amoungst kiwis. A good book to read is Irrational Exurberance wherin Robert Shiller explains that over the long run, given comparable properties and section sizes there has generally been NONE or very little increases in house prices in real terms (after inflation). And why should property value growth exceed inflation? After all is not a house made of things that over the long run increase roughly in line with inflation, and there has never been a land scarcity issue except in major cities.
If the 2000-2100 period follows the 1890-2000 period you could possibly get absolutely destroyed levering up.
Seems to be just a wonderful bubble based on debt, speculation and regulations. Ask yourself if it is normal that a low risk investment that rarely goes down can deliver returns in excess of 50-60% per year to a levered property owner like the last 10 years.
" It is true that, for the United States as a whole, real home prices were 66 percent higher in 2004 than in 1890, according to the index my research assistants and I have put together. But all of that increase occurred in two brief periods: the time right after World War II and since 1998.
Other than those two periods, real home prices overall have been mostly flat or declining. Moreover, the overall increase, including the booms, is not very impressive -- 0.4 percent a year."
https://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/
Some good charts:
RealHousingPrices_1890_2010_log-thumb-570x406-45789.png
Screenshot-2022-02-08-201603.png
Anyway sorry for the distraction please keep going.
Good and well made point. Only thing I would like to point out is that you are talking about the long term price development of house prices, and yes, it does not make sense to assume that the price for a house is long term sustainably growing above inflation. Shareguy on the other hand was talking about the house price3 ripples he predicts for the year to come.
As we all know - the markets are in the short term a voting machine and in the long term a weighing machine ... and value rarely equals hype. You both might be right.
Gerald, you raise good points and very pertinent to the present housing situation. I'm not sure NZ housing trends necessarily follow US trends although probably a similar chart as there have been different influence factors in play.
This is the first downturn in house prices we have seen in NZ since the 70's, when the NZ economy began to expand, plenty of jobs and the NZ standard of living improved markedly and better materials supply meant there was a house for everyone - a bit simplistic but that's the gist.
Politically then everything was about production and nothing was ever said or taught about NZers saving for the future (which persists today), in fact there was a disincentive to save as savings were taxed while the production costs on goods and services were tax deductible. However there was still inflation, which raised the price on everyone's biggest asset. And still savings were taxed and no incentives to save.
Then along came the Dolf de Rouse books and the many well attended seminars available on how to own 20 houses by leveraging the finance on one for the next, and the tax breaks etc. - and still savings were taxed and there were no incentives to save.
The cowboy days leading up to the stock market crash in '87 just meant NZers would not touch shares compared to the easy safe money to be made from houses. All you had to do was to put down 10% deposit and the banks provided 90% lending based on the safe security of land and buildings, and you sat and waited for the house price rise because of the NZ belief that 'house prices never go down', and you collected 100% of the price rise as there was no CGT - all for a 10% outlay... not bad eh.... And therein lies the story albeit simplistic. No judgement here- Just saying it as I remember.
Shares have long been a lucrative hobby for me in NZ but I'm always careful who I talk to about shares as I have had too many look at me as if I blasphemed and should engage in self-flagellation to repent. It's time the investment mindset in this country changed away from housing.
I believe in NZ there should be tax offsets to incentivise saving. I believe there should be lots more local body bonds (govt backed) paying attractive returns to fund infrastructure in NZ as many trusts etc want the investment security offered by these instruments, and we would have less 3 Waters situations.
Anyway those are my thoughts and recollections.
Merry Christmas to all who make this forum such an interesting read
Quote from: Whome on Dec 21, 2022, 10:03 AMI believe there should be lots more local body bonds (govt backed) paying attractive returns to fund infrastructure in NZ as many trusts etc want the investment security offered by these instruments, and we would have less 3 Waters situations.
Exactly this for both the reasons you outlined. In theory one can buy local Government bonds, but given they are centralised you cannot get one in your local council and they likely centralise issuing them to pay the lowest interest rates possible, rather than have smaller councils being reamed by the market.
https://www.lgfa.co.nz/investors/lgfa-bonds
Hi people, have finally found this site from the other one.
My predictions for 23, very loosly, are as follows:
Interest rates will keep going up but more slowly,
Housing prices will keep declining as more people are forced to sell
Equities in turn will fall or stay stagnant for this year, especially growth stocks.
Bond markets are going to suffer.
Cost of living will continue to rise and be positive in 2023 between 5-10%
Labour governement is going to get smashed at the election.
tiem they had "Robert Shiller"
on winner most hated channel again soon... cant understand why hes been not on prime time for a while..
Welcome aboard blackcap, I'm very pleased you found your way here and I am sure many others are too :)
Interesting comment about bond markets suffering some more...gosh it's been quite a remarkably painful year for the classic 60/40 shares /bond portfolio already. Much more pain for bonds in 23 or just a bit more in your opinion? Agree with you 23 is shaping up as just as challenging as 22 and let's be honest about it, this year has been really tough for the vast majority of investors.
A big thank you to the owner of this forum for providing us with such a great platform for discussion which seems generally to have been good healthy debate and for the efforts of admin administering and maintaining this site. Your efforts are much appreciated.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays.
Quote from: blackcap on Dec 21, 2022, 08:38 PMHi people, have finally found this site from the other one.
My predictions for 23, very loosly, are as follows:
Interest rates will keep going up but more slowly,
Housing prices will keep declining as more people are forced to sell
Equities in turn will fall or stay stagnant for this year, especially growth stocks.
Bond markets are going to suffer.
Cost of living will continue to rise and be positive in 2023 between 5-10%
Labour governement is going to get smashed at the election.
^ Pretty much sums it up. Welcome to the grownups forum Blackcap ;D
Although, the sceptic in me keeps thinking that the central banks won't have the constitutional fortitude required to keep going as Governments on both sides and the general populace start screaming in real pain. Will we see protests in the street? Will the powers that be cave, and start dropping interest rates? In which case inflation will probably take off again (but worse) and we will repeat the 1970's all over again.
The worst leg of a bear market is the recession leg. And we are about to enter it. So my prediction is that there will be a "Lehman moment" in 2023 - to really flush market participants out so we can reach the "Capitulation" and "Despair" stages of a bear market.
There will also be a good flush out of zombie companies that should have been killed off in the last recession but were saved by QE, and companies whose business models consist solely of burning shareholders cash. Once again we will learn that "Cash is King" as the flood of cheap and easy money dries up and cashflow negative companies fold. Expect more Sharesies type moves - prices go up, costs get reined in, the old school business model of making a profit to survive is born again. Of course, this is highly inflationary as well, as companies stop subsidising consumers and start charging them the true cost of product/service delivery.
The market has further to fall - P/Es have been compressed, but now recession will compress earnings (which raises P/E) so P/Es will need to compress further. We should hopefully end up back where companies are trading on sustainable dividend yields higher than the current bank interest rates (as they should be) - more so for those on the NZX as they are lower growth than their international peers and thus deserve to be valued on a much lower multiple and returning a higher yield.
My (current) gut feel:
I reckon things may stay a stronger for longer, but the long mooted recession eventually occurs in middle or later half of 2023. Aggregate demand will continue to outstrip supply in the early months of 2023, driven by a cannibalisation of household savings and robust nominal wage growth. I note the household surveys, but don't put too much stock into them (everyone is surly).
The RBNZ will continue to hike until at least a 5.5% terminal rate is reached, maybe eventually higher, but may not be a linear journey.
I think in NZ (and more likely offshore) as a few volatile/commodity related components of CPI become naturally disinflationary - and may temporarily drive down overall CPI - the doves will gain a disproportionate voice in politics and monetary policy. I see a real risk too early pauses and/or reductions in cash rate occurring before rising again as continued wage growth starts to rebound and lift CPI after temporary falls.
That could give way to a few false rallies in tech, discretionary and overall equity performances in 2023 (even if they fall harder in 2024). The tech bulls still want to run at the first sign of lower interest rates and they want to run hard, and it'll take time for the markets to beat that out of them. I believe what we are in for will resemble the post GFC period of 2011-2012, where we had shallow w shaped recessions, coupled with very weak equity market performances, and lots of discretionary business challenges. I don't think the end is near, but I think sentiment has a very long way to fall and it will take time.
I think tourism will run hard for the first 6-9 months in Australasia. Beyond that who knows but probably tappers off and eventually falls.
There will be some pivotal decision gateways on Onslow and the attendant impact on our generator companies
I think the Australian economy will continue to run relatively red hot - too hot - for the first 6-9 months of 2023, because their reserve bank governor is a bigger wet blanket than ours. That may (unduly) underpin trans-tasman related equities throughout 2023. I think the NZD/AUD will remain strong before eventually weakening as AU has to lift its interest rate track at the same time NZ hits its terminal rate and the market prices in future cuts due to a weakening economy.
But none the less I see heaps of pressure on wage growth and underlying input growth, coupled with softening demand, that will shrink margins and company earnings even as revenue grows on the back of inflation, for the wide majority of NZX listed companies. There are still many companies in the consumer discretionary, tech and now travel industries that are (currently) experiencing robust demand and layering heaps of costs into them, when on the horizon a perfect storm of softening demanding and rising costs will combine to shock margins later in the year. I believe investors have a misplaced optimism when reported GDP numbers come in high and lagged company reports show positive trends - go back to 2011 and 2012 and look at the number of business failures and tanked share prices occurring during a modest recession, and it should give pause for thought.
I believe and hope there will be *some* opportunities to invest at below the cycle / fundamental value but it won't be obvious and it will take time to occur, and patience will be required. Calendar years don't perfectly encapsulate business cycles and a lot of these things could spill over into 2024 (or not). Reckon it'll be another tough year but we are slowly getting there.
Very pleased I started this thread as its flushed out some very interesting comments from a lot of highly experienced investors sounding the warning bell about the chances of another very challenging year ahead.
I agree that there's no harm in keeping some powder dry at this stage and with some call account interest rates like Direct Broking at 3.90% (and likely headed to about 4.5% when the RBNZ likely tightens a lot again in February 23), at least you're getting a somewhat half reasonable return while you wait to pounce on some outstanding opportunity down the track.
For what it's worth my main strategy to weather this storm is to focus on stocks I believe will have an enduring gross yield of 8%+ and can pay that across economic cycles. Using that primary investment filter with stock selection keeps the Beagle clan very well fed and watered with plenty left over for really enjoyable hobbies and pets.
While we all have different investment objectives and timeframes, for my stage of life being semi-retired and looking to build enduring retirement income, I use this filter ruthlessly in my stock selection criteria. I should not have made an exception for a small 2% position in ARV yielding 4.7%, that was a mistake but if it keeps going down the way it has been lately it might be yielding 8% soon lol
Sir John Key opines on the outlook for 2023 https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/12/sir-john-key-unveils-his-predictions-for-the-economy-in-2023.html
Maybe so we could all get the most out of this thread we morph this discussion into a question about what's your strategy to navigate the challenges of 2023 ?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 22, 2022, 11:56 AMVery pleased I started this thread as its flushed out some very interesting comments from a lot of highly experienced investors sounding the warning bell about the chances of another very challenging year ahead.
I agree that there's no harm in keeping some powder dry at this stage and with some call account interest rates like Direct Broking at 3.90% (and likely headed to about 4.5% when the RBNZ likely tightens a lot again in February 23), at least you're getting a somewhat half reasonable return while you wait to pounce on some outstanding opportunity down the track.
For what it's worth my main strategy to weather this storm is to focus on stocks I believe will have an enduring gross yield of 8%+ and can pay that across economic cycles. Using that primary investment filter with stock selection keeps the Beagle clan very well fed and watered with plenty left over for really enjoyable hobbies and pets.
While we all have different investment objectives and timeframes, for my stage of life being semi-retired and looking to build enduring retirement income, I use this filter ruthlessly in my stock selection criteria. I should not have made an exception for a small 2% position in ARV yielding 4.7%, that was a mistake but if it keeps going down the way it has been lately it might be yielding 8% soon lol
Sir John Key opines on the outlook for 2023 https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/12/sir-john-key-unveils-his-predictions-for-the-economy-in-2023.html
Maybe so we could all get the most out of this thread we morph this discussion into a question about what's your strategy to navigate the challenges of 2023 ?
Basil, thanks for your posts here! I'm a couple of years older than you and not employed. We are living in Brisbane now.
I have some "powder" which I'll only deploy on down days over the next year. (note to self:be patient). Thank to the advice here!
Like you I'm into dividend stocks now
80% the rest specs
NZ Herald brokers' picks...
OCA?
AIR?
Screenshot (45).png Hmmm?
That's a bit of a motley collection although it would be good to know the context behind their picks. Are some picks based on wealth preservation in light of an expected recession? It's hard to see SP growth in some of these picks.
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 26, 2022, 10:57 AMThat's a bit of a motley collection although it would be good to know the context behind their picks. Are some picks based on wealth preservation in light of an expected recession? It's hard to see SP growth in some of these picks.
They explained their reasoning in the article.
Personally I thought you could do worse.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 22, 2022, 11:56 AM
Maybe so we could all get the most out of this thread we morph this discussion into a question about what's your strategy to navigate the challenges of 2023 ?
My no. 1 investment strategy to navigate 2023 will be to invest in NZ companies with no debt given inflation and interest rates are still to peak, and could still surprise on the high side. While this is one factor and provides choices in future company growth, they still have to perform and do what they say they will do. I see no debt as a best start point in the current inflationary climate.
Growth stocks are the fun side of investing - the 10% spec end - a small amount since I have recently retired. I believe Oz will recover quicker than NZ. I liked what Percy said some time back - DMX Funds identify good Oz prospects early in the piece - and that has paid off with Acrow and I think Lovisa was one of theirs. no.2 strategy is to invest in Oz for the fun end - and carefully watch them grow!
Another factor for NZ will be the forecast effects of a change in govt such as tourism which could rise again from the ashes. Just how will Act and Winnie influence things. Interesting times ahead and I hope we see an end to the woke crap we have endured in the last few years.
solid cashed up strategy for me.....have been since Jan 2022.
I own two ASX high growth stock but apart from that are very happy to sit on the sidelines whilst Orr pushes through his mandate.
A number of differing term deposit length to make sure some money is always rolling off to take advantage of lowering share prices.
On the buy list for later in 2023......RYM,OCA,SUM,WBC,HGH,KPG,BOQ.
Going to have to get through a mountain of headwinds for the share market first 6 to 9 months of 2023
Strategy for me will be cash + accumulations on (perceived) price weaknesses of quality ASX and NZX dividend payers. Preferably imputed on the NZX.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/28/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
Re-printed from 'Wealth Morning' - a world view of market influence factors for 2022/23 from 2 perspectives. #1 the pessimists view, then #2 the optimists view. I shall stay with #2 !!!
Friday, 30th December, 2022 — Auckland, New Zealand
By Simon Angelo
Do you ever feel you've awoken to a world you no longer recognise?
In A View from the Bridge, by Arthur Miller, the lawyer Alfieri says he is 'inclined to notice the ruins in things, perhaps because he was born in Italy.'
An outsider to Al Capone's New York, he sees that he is powerless but to watch events run their bloody course.
Then, as now, change was afoot in a most brutal and pervasive way. This is what I think of as I look at the 2020s.
A sense of ruin. A bloody course. But, just maybe, recovery.
This decade has opened as the most divisive, chaotic, confusing, and unequal since the 1930s.
Where do I start?
A powder keg of worsening inequality fuelling rising crime.
Runaway inflation, escalating interest rates, and a persistent bear market clawing away wealth.
An entire generation shut out from home ownership, much poorer than their predecessors.
Extreme concentrations of wealth and a decimated middle class.
Levels of rivalry amongst major powers not seen since the Cold War.
Deep divisions even in the most developed and prosperous nations.
Claims that a coming climate emergency will destroy the world as know it.
Going into 2023, there are two potential courses.
One will see instability and chaos with volatility in financial markets like never before. The other, a renewed path to a period of more sustained prosperity.
Possibility #1 — The course of chaos?
Lessons from history show us that unequal and fractured societies fall apart.
Consider Ancient Rome. Instability destroyed the regime from the top down.
There was little to no middle class acting as a buffer in Roman society.
The elite ruling patrician class saw their power shattered when the much more numerous plebeians rose up against them.
Secession of the Plebs. Source: History Daily
Do we have a patrician class today?
They may well be found in the gentrified left and globalised elite.
Power is concentrated amongst tech-company titans, socialist-leaning governments, activist judges, progressive academics, and greying professionals that occupy elite suburbs of big cities.
These patrician elite stand against all climate emissions, seemingly regardless of mitigation. They stand for progressive social values. They're against the outward expansion of cities. They're for globalisation, open immigration, and diversity ahead of national identity. And they'll often be seen virtue-signalling these values to their group.
Unfortunately, for the many more outside these elites, their very livelihoods are under threat.
Their jobs disappear. Their farms are doomed by regulation. Their small businesses are at risk. Costs for transport, energy, and food continue to spiral upwards. Their sense of culture or faith is vilified.
Wealth of the patrician elite has become far more concentrated in the world.
Their sources of wealth in technology and elite professions create far fewer jobs than in the industrial past. As a result, there is no longer a vibrant middle class. Wealth floats directly to the top.
The result? In America in 2021, the top 1% controlled nearly a third of all household wealth, increasing during the pandemic. They also owned 54% of individually held shares.
Here in New Zealand, a similar trend. The top 10% of households hold about 50% of all household net worth.
Of the 120 MPs in this country, declarations show they own 256 properties.
The elite have enjoyed spacious homes with yards to raise their families.
Now they tell the next generation they must live more densely in apartments or jam-packed townhouses. If they do want to own a home, they must borrow at very high rates. They must compete with growing flows of migrants for jobs and scarce homes. They must accept much lower real wages than their parents. And they should reduce driving so they can cut emissions.
The once successful, property-owning democracies of the West are increasingly under threat. And the focus has moved to preserving the interests of the elite. Knowingly or unknowingly, they are shaping society to prevent upward mobility and preserve their position.
There is now a generational war. A culture war. And an economic one.
Outside of the elite and those they may have brainwashed, large numbers of people do not want a path that is without property, genderless, climate-terrorised, or opposed to their values of faith and family.
The early simmering of this was seen in the huge support Donald Trump received. The Leave vote that saw the UK exit the EU. And the rise of right-wing populist parties in central and southern Europe.
Failure to recognise the needs of those outside the elite, or beyond their circles, will see a continued fracturing of society.
As debt and the cost of that borrowing grows, developed countries will begin to look more and more like the developing world. Where the elite live in a handful of beautiful areas. And the rest of the population navigate a world of crime, addiction, gangs, corruption, and declining living standards.
Financial markets will continue to experience volatility. Inflation and debt will continue to misprice assets and lead to crashes. And it will become even more difficult to find upside in markets. Except for the most skilled of investors.
Possibility #2 — The course of recovery?
There is also hope for a different path. It comes from restabilising work for most and wrestling control from the virtuous elite.
On both the left and right, there is now a realisation that, under the current order, low-cost manufacturers like China will capture not only jobs but entire industries from the West. Beginning in America, there is now a process of incentivised re-shoring underway.
This could create a new dawn of emerging industries in the areas of green energy, artificial intelligence, and clean transportation that herald new industry and jobs throughout the world.
The inflationary debt crisis of 2022 is now seeing housing markets crumble. In New Zealand, the right seek to expand urban limits and increase the supply of homes. While the left seek to ramp up tenant protection and tax landlords and speculators.
Pushback and logic are coming to the climate debate so that people are looking beyond immediate emissions. If an electric car is made in a coal-powered station in China and creates vast life-cycle pollution from its mining, is it really that clean? Are there alternative technologies that are less pollutive?
And if you're driving an efficient gasoline car but have around 20 trees around your property, would it not be fair to consider that you'll absorb enough carbon for a year of commuting?
From where I'm standing, it also seems that right-leaning governments will take control around the world from 2023 and beyond.
Simply because the left and right of the political spectrum are no longer what they were.
Left political parties once represented workers. The right, the capitalist and professional classes.
This has turned on its head. Today, the left has become gentrified. It is made up of elites and progressives. Much of the working class has moved right.
Whether it is Giorgia Meloni in Italy or Ron DeSantis in America, votes are lining up powerfully for the right, thanks to this move from ordinary working people.
This could offer a freeing up of economic opportunity, a return of jobs, managed immigration, family-friendly policies, and renewed national pride.
While the free market is far from perfect, I cannot help but consider the many entrepreneurs who have created companies that have changed the world. Were the free market contained or derailed as the elite promote, most of those entrepreneurs would not have started those businesses.
And the world would have been materially worse off.
A free market that works for all — that supports employment — will see markets embrace again many new growth areas in business. Not only in technology but in a new greener reindustrialisation of many countries around the world.
We believe in the course of recovery
Do you see the ruins in things?
Everything is broken, but in reality, few are evil.
I am an optimist. And I see the rest of the 2020s ready to roar.
Whatever course we find ourselves on in 2023, there is one certainty. A changing world creates opportunity. And it is set to change like never before.
When it comes to predictions, especially around homeowners, landlords and tenants, it seems technology is moving into this area too.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7eaw/robot-landlords-are-buying-up-houses (https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7eaw/robot-landlords-are-buying-up-houses)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130895723/national-act-looking-primed-in-2023-but-dont-write-off-nz-first
Interesting piece from Mike - and he only blows his own horn twice - in an atypical show of ego restraint. I went to school with Mike, he hasn't changed a jot. Which is cool...if you value consistency of above all else. And then there's his Peter's prediction. Too consistently a gate crasher too write off he reckons. God forbid then, that in the year of the rabbit, the electorate stitches us up with that bunny again.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Jan 03, 2023, 10:10 AMhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130895723/national-act-looking-primed-in-2023-but-dont-write-off-nz-first
Interesting piece from Mike - and he only blows his own horn twice - in an atypical show of ego restraint. I went to school with Mike, he hasn't changed a jot. Which is cool...if you value consistency of above all else. And then there's his Peter's prediction. Too consistently a gate crasher too write off he reckons. God forbid then, that in the year of the rabbit, the electorate stitches us up with that bunny again.
So - what is the hit rate of his previous predictions?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 03, 2023, 11:09 AMSo - what is the hit rate of his previous predictions?
According to Mike, I imagine that'd be well over 100%... :D
The Standard and Poor's 500, finished 2022 in negative territory. This index closed at 3,839.50. While it was only down 0.25% on the day, it also meant it was down 19.44% for the year.
So, 2022 was the worst year for the S&P 500 since 2008 and the fourth-worst year since the index was expanded to 500 companies in 1957.
The good news is, historically, back-to-back down years are very rare! Rare.jpg
Love the charts ....
yep sometime this year is a buy ...
and the rate at which hi Mars oclock is ticking it could be sooner than we expect...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qltUuqEeMnQ
CNBC posted a good article a few days ago.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 03, 2023, 01:18 PMLove the charts ....
yep sometime this year is a buy ...
and the rate at which hi Mars oclock is ticking it could be sooner than we expect...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qltUuqEeMnQ
CNBC posted a good article a few days ago.
Here's Richard Prebble's best guesses...https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/richard-prebbles-predictions-for-2023/YQWQEWGGHFBSPHERV2MMMYOPQM/
Plenty of them...including Labour out in a landslide but no Peters' revival, no recession and a massive rebound for tourism driven by China.
RP?
dont read the locals news... it bad for the mind... unless it about demolishing all the houses at mount mews and letting the surf break make a come back at the mount main beach which back in the 1950's was probably one of the best in the country...
https://teara.govt.nz/en/photograph/39189/mt-maunganui-1955
what a time... what a place ...
ban beach housing... to late ...
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 03, 2023, 06:18 PMRP?
dont read the locals news... it bad for the mind... unless it about demolishing all the houses at mount mews and letting the surf break make a come back at the mount main beach which back in the 1950's was probably one of the best in the country...
https://teara.govt.nz/en/photograph/39189/mt-maunganui-1955
what a time... what a place ...
ban beach housing... to late ...
A bit before my time that, Waltz. I can't stand the place today. It's just another Tauranga suburb in a paean to unchecked urban sprawl. You can't even drive through it quickly.
Yes it should never have been allowed... but same happened to Jef bay in south africa..
the winds from high rise housing apparently change the dynamics on beaches ... well apparently...
modelling of the enivironment did not exsist although the book ONE planet was published back... just wait checking tha dat...
unfortunately 1972...
all to late....
but a lot of work went into it..
Interesting that EX Hong Kong ext pats are now oeprating from Dublin...
David Roch ....
says market going no where this year ... down 10 percent by end...
and russia a permanent problem for the west even after a change of personal at the top table...
there is a major war on and it will move the load on the engine of growth even though some say it wont...
another year of this to go unless the US gets a move on supplies F14 tomcats to Ukraine...
Biggest radar ever on a plane... bonkers speed and ahead of its time.. could still work today... f15 was good but not as good as the tomcat could have become...
alway over spend on R&D...it pays in the end..
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 03, 2023, 08:20 PMYes it should never have been allowed... but same happened to Jef bay in south africa..
the winds from high rise housing apparently change the dynamics on beaches ... well apparently...
modelling of the enivironment did not exsist although the book ONE planet was published back... just wait checking tha dat...
unfortunately 1972...
all to late....
but a lot of work went into it..
Were you surfing back then - on the longboards?
"longboards?"
endless summer one ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmHQ9v2ijsQ
born just after 1955...i sneaked into the 50's!!!! by 11 months!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lC7cRmZzevI
but recorded my fastest speeds last feb on a local lake....even faster than at 21... know your equipment ... or better yet get it custom built...
know your maths or at least know the law of maths that controls energy when you unlease your energy....
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 03, 2023, 08:22 PMInteresting that EX Hong Kong ext pats are now oeprating from Dublin...
David Roch ....
says market going no where this year ... down 10 percent by end...
and russia a permanent problem for the west even after a change of personal at the top table...
there is a major war on and it will move the load on the engine of growth even though some say it wont...
another year of this to go unless the US gets a move on supplies F14 tomcats to Ukraine...
Biggest radar ever on a plane... bonkers speed and ahead of its time.. could still work today... f15 was good but not as good as the tomcat could have become...
alway over spend on R&D...it pays in the end..
Maverick be pleased you're talking about F14's.
Turn the sound up to 100% and enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZfM2VMs_vI
Not sure there's many still fully operational these days ?
F22's is where its at these days. The fun really starts at 3 minutes 50 seconds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hACjS-79Wb4
Little known fact as to why F22 airshow displays are quite short.
On full afterburner they consume about 300 US gallons, (1135 liters) a minute, (yes a minute)...this gives them less than 7 minutes endurance at full afterburner.
The problem with the F22 is the productio line would cost to much to restart or rather the f35 has apparently taken the production line away for its own use.
Even if the F35 program doesnt go the full cycle the technology from its R&D will be the future on which anything is built including the new engine designs and softwae platforms...
in fact id be surprised if whole new software development platforms arnt being created as we speak for AI based flight simulations....
New Chips will mean the US could leap ahead again just like they did with the F22.
The japanese are now gearing up along with the SK to build next generation fighters and thats why we see the New Axis of EVIL gearing up to fight now rather than later...
even of the fight scenes in Topgun were all wrong the ideas were right and of course no one puts stuff in the bottom of a volcano right?
and only volcanos are shaped like that apparently...
there wrnt enough consultants on the movie...
reminds one of the last bond movie where clearly someone forgot to remind the directors and script writer of "Master and Commader"
lucky the UKE's appear to understand its not a movie and they are now using HI MARS fingers of steel to effectively wipe out the ugly bears in mass and a new HI mars missle is coming with a head that spreads lots of little finegrs of death....
shocking stuff...
invest in defence...
Safest bet of the year. Ukraine will keep raining down more Himars rockets on the Russians
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/explained-the-us-made-himars-rocket-launchers-that-ukraine-has-used-to-kill-over-100-russian-troops/ar-AA15UrSD
Terminator becomes real soon ? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-drone-advances-could-bring-dawn-of-killer-robots/KPARIPD7C5EKNH75ETL5BO6QAM/
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/inventions/weird-2023-predictions-made-100-years-ago-and-how-many-came-true/news-story/c5d280ff44316502a74369e6777b4b59
The four day working week, kidney warmers and other weirdness but probably about as accurate as predictions made today for the year.
Here's my predictions for 2023 - Ukraine will win back most of the territory lost to Russia since 2014.
- Putin will fall (likely from a multi-story building.)
- In terms of the NZX, recession fears fade, while property remains flat.
- China's economy continues to struggle to return to previous 'highs'.
- Western democracies regain strength in the new 'cold war'.
deleted ...
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Dec 22, 2022, 12:17 AMMy (current) gut feel:
I reckon things may stay a stronger for longer, but the long mooted recession eventually occurs in middle or later half of 2023. Aggregate demand will continue to outstrip supply in the early months of 2023, driven by a cannibalisation of household savings and robust nominal wage growth. I note the household surveys, but don't put too much stock into them (everyone is surly).
The RBNZ will continue to hike until at least a 5.5% terminal rate is reached, maybe eventually higher, but may not be a linear journey.
I think in NZ (and more likely offshore) as a few volatile/commodity related components of CPI become naturally disinflationary - and may temporarily drive down overall CPI - the doves will gain a disproportionate voice in politics and monetary policy. I see a real risk too early pauses and/or reductions in cash rate occurring before rising again as continued wage growth starts to rebound and lift CPI after temporary falls.
That could give way to a few false rallies in tech, discretionary and overall equity performances in 2023 (even if they fall harder in 2024). The tech bulls still want to run at the first sign of lower interest rates and they want to run hard, and it'll take time for the markets to beat that out of them. I believe what we are in for will resemble the post GFC period of 2011-2012, where we had shallow w shaped recessions, coupled with very weak equity market performances, and lots of discretionary business challenges. I don't think the end is near, but I think sentiment has a very long way to fall and it will take time.
I think tourism will run hard for the first 6-9 months in Australasia. Beyond that who knows but probably tappers off and eventually falls.
There will be some pivotal decision gateways on Onslow and the attendant impact on our generator companies
I think the Australian economy will continue to run relatively red hot - too hot - for the first 6-9 months of 2023, because their reserve bank governor is a bigger wet blanket than ours. That may (unduly) underpin trans-tasman related equities throughout 2023. I think the NZD/AUD will remain strong before eventually weakening as AU has to lift its interest rate track at the same time NZ hits its terminal rate and the market prices in future cuts due to a weakening economy.
But none the less I see heaps of pressure on wage growth and underlying input growth, coupled with softening demand, that will shrink margins and company earnings even as revenue grows on the back of inflation, for the wide majority of NZX listed companies. There are still many companies in the consumer discretionary, tech and now travel industries that are (currently) experiencing robust demand and layering heaps of costs into them, when on the horizon a perfect storm of softening demanding and rising costs will combine to shock margins later in the year. I believe investors have a misplaced optimism when reported GDP numbers come in high and lagged company reports show positive trends - go back to 2011 and 2012 and look at the number of business failures and tanked share prices occurring during a modest recession, and it should give pause for thought.
I believe and hope there will be *some* opportunities to invest at below the cycle / fundamental value but it won't be obvious and it will take time to occur, and patience will be required. Calendar years don't perfectly encapsulate business cycles and a lot of these things could spill over into 2024 (or not). Reckon it'll be another tough year but we are slowly getting there.
Revisting this thread and my contribution to it.
No crystal ball is perfect but the year is going about how I thought.
My portfolio and dividends in great nick. Pretty good showing in the stock picking competition too.
It's about time we dredged up this old thread to look at our predictions from late 2022/early 2023....
The jury is still out on my predictions although I see David Seymour will get a ministerial position. The other predictions are still waiting for additional data. I'm 50/50 on my #1 where GDP was negative in Q1, but not Q2. I wonder if there is still a chance for Q1 to be revised such that there was no recession in 2023? HPI prediction might be safe but I'm not so sure about #4 where share prices have no nett loss over the year - although I notice I didn't stipulate how that was measured. My bad.
How are everyone else's predictions going?
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 19, 2022, 05:39 PMMy predictions which you can all mock me for in 12 months and 12 days time:
1) No recession in NZ in 2023, in other words we do not have 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during 2023
2) David Seymour gets a ministerial appointment in 2023
3) NZ median house price to stabilise i.e. annual growth >= 0% as measured from 31 Dec 2022 to 31 Dec 2023
4) and H1 of 2023 will have plenty of opportunities to buy the dip of the dippity dip with share prices rebounding in H2
All are based on the assumption there is not another pandemic, or significant world health event, in 2023. Otherwise anything can happen.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2022, 01:14 PMLabour will lose the 2023 electionThankfully they did.
Property will fall by another 10-20% It pretty much did
RYM will do a capital raise Correct again and what a bloody fiasco it was.
OCA will still attract an inordinate number of posts on both sites as people struggle to reconcile all the positive talk from the company with its poor financial results Correct again but its all going to come right really soon many keep telling me for the last several years
HLG will stun to the upside with earnings and dividends that will really please shareholders Correct again but there are now clouds over their FY24 numbers
The market will have another tough year with minimal overall returns Correct again
Bonds will perform well Got that one wrong but they are starting to come right
The war in Ukraine will continue all year and fuel prices will take off again Another one right
Inflation will cool to 5% by year end I think we're getting there
The Reserve Bank will remain behind the curve and will eventually look really stupid as they overtighten and keep rates higher for longer than is necessary. Definitely got that right.
Bealge will catch a large Kingfish from his new boat this summer and be absolutely ecstatic about it.
Buggar, that is still a work in progress. The summer that never was. Maybe this summer.
Happy with those predictions.