StockTalk

Should have its own thread.
Highlights.
Stable income level.
6.65 cps dividends confirmed for the year.  6.65 / 121 = 5.496% yield net.  (Its a PIE so for 33% taxpayers that's 5.496 / 0.67 = 8.2% gross yield.
Minimal NTA reduction from $1.74 to $1.72 with higher cap rates, (I am pleased with that)
51 cents (~30%) discount to current NTA is quite significant considering buildings have just been revalued at higher cap rates.
Pretty boring stock but I have a few for the yield.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/402748/383890.pdf

Same here, keep a small % for yield.

Looks cheap but why are the writedowns so light?

Their explanation is that rent review increases mostly offset the cap rate increase.
Valuation review was an Internal review that was reviewed by an external valuer...make of that what you will...
Mostly a yield story really...doubt the share price to NTA will love much in the foreseeable future.
Comes down to whether you're happy with (assuming you are on a 33% tax rate) an 8.2% gross return.
Gearing is modest and the discount to NTA of 51 cents gives pretty good downside protection I reckon.
Sound hold for yield in my opinion.

Shareclarity has revised the Argosy Property Limited DCF Valuation up 1.0% to NZD1.44. The share price is currently NZD1.20 and the value gap is 20.0%.

Shareclarity take: "Vanilla result. Net property income of $55.0m +3.6% on the pcp. Only minor tweaks were made to forecasts. Much higher interest expense should see underlying NPAT decline modestly for the full year"

ACC increasing holdings at these bargain Prices...

I've been adding a few too.

FED panics behind closed doors... war goes on for another 24 months ...

ARG 1.10 or less....  more bargains...

in case anyone doesnt understand whats going on... think IVAN T and the writtings of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Sorokin

you get the idea whats coming or has arrived...

and you will realise anything is possible now.....

under 1.10 not far away.

Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 09, 2023, 03:48 PMARG 1.10 or less....  more bargains...

I see your bid..... 5 shares at 1.095  ;)

 that is the SHAZ.....  we have automated processing for OMC accounts and have had since early 2010's

automation ... binary high speed ...

when we process its in BULK and it does a audit to what is unauditable.... the shear scale of the class and interface libraries have to be seen to be believed - oh the SHAZ...

BIG floor going in ... cant remember  numbers like these in a long time

with farther rate hikes likely in the US money could continue to flow out of bond proxies.

could we see 1.10 here sometime this year?  Probably not unless insto dump NZ com props but you never know.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/us-treasury-yields-investors-digest-latest-inflation-data.html

More hot inflation numbers...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

More intereest rate hikes coming...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131293114/pm-warns-of-tough-times-ahead-as-reserve-bank-expected-to-increase-official-cash-rate

Some rebalancing in the COMP Props....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

property stocks on fire and banks selling off...

did you get enough or is retail AUS clothing still the big winner, winner()?

3rd qtr divie ......doesntvseem much of a payrise who rely on it for the groceries

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 02, 2023, 09:12 AM3rd qtr divie ......doesntvseem much of a payrise who rely on it for the groceries

I guess somebody must help to get inflation down again ... why not investors?

Is that SHINTR saying salt just dumped?

they still hold a few..

COMP PROPS SP's holding in the face of higher yields.

Siegel has gone bullish... and says FED has over tightened.

SP to go Higher? your kidding!!

Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 04, 2023, 09:14 AMCOMP PROPS SP's holding in the face of higher yields.

Siegel has gone bullish... and says FED has over tightened.

SP to go Higher? your kidding!!

Good ol Siegal eh

Wonder if anybody would listen if Winner(n) said Orr has over tightened and should be reducing rates rather than contemplating further rises

is this why this stock is in demand today...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/new-zealands-economy-shrinks-in-fourth-quarter-changing-rate-outlook.html

1.10... thank you for that the other day... many thanks...

Suppose report pretty solid

Aren't these stocks often held for their dividend income stream ...........if so not much of a pay rise this year and no pay rise next 12 months


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/411537/394453.pdf

Solid result as you say Winner.   I think the outlook is satisfactory in the face of much higher funding costs and a weak economy.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/411537/394455.pdf

In terms of yield.  At $1.10, backing out the 1.6625 cps Q4 PIE dividend receivable in the next few weeks and treating this as part return of capital that's gives a net input cost of $1.0834 for FY24 income.
6.65cps forecast income / 108.34 = 6.14% tax free PIE yield.  For 33 % taxpayers like me that's worth 6.14 / 0.67 = 9.16% Gross yield. 
I reckon that's sustainable and solid and you're effectively buying $1.58 of assets for $1.08, (50 cents per share discount which is 32%), when interest rates and cap rates may be close to the top of the cycle.  Sound long term investing in my opinion.   

Quote from: winner (n) on May 17, 2023, 08:43 AMSuppose report pretty solid

Aren't these stocks often held for their dividend income stream ...........if so not much of a pay rise this year and no pay rise next 12 months


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/411537/394453.pdf

One does not need to be Mister Universe to win a local beauty contest, it is enough to look better than the other guys in the room :) ... and in terms of investments I think that ARG ticks some boxes in that regard related to reliable, sustainable and sufficient dividends. Asking for more would be greedy, wouldn't it?

From an FA perspective ... the time to buy REITS is when share price is low and interest rates are high (like now). Will give you on top of the dividends some nice capital appreciation as soon as interest rates drop.

From a TA perspective ... do I see a dropping wedge? I know, some people don't like dropping wedges, particularly if they are heavy and they have their foot below ... but from a TA perspective its a bullish sign.


ARG falling wedge.JPG

All good ... happy holder;

GMT has shown a lot of support lately and its DIV is more than half ARGS... money flowing into Auckland COM Property.

 Lets look at the potential for future development.

If they expand over the next 10  years it would be great...

"Looking ahead, it is clear that the New Zealand economy will face challenges
during the remainder of FY24. With this in mind, the Board has decided to
maintain the dividend at the current level, so dividend guidance for FY24 is
for a pay-out of 6.65 cents per share."
"

If things turns around they could change that but it simply means they are being prudent.

Quote from: Waltzing on May 17, 2023, 10:04 AMGMT has shown a lot of support lately and its DIV is more than half ARGS... money flowing into Auckland COM Property.

Expect income for reits to be flat for a few year or even more...

If they grow somehow  it would be great...

"Looking ahead, it is clear that the New Zealand economy will face challenges
during the remainder of FY24. With this in mind, the Board has decided to
maintain the dividend at the current level, so dividend guidance for FY24 is
for a pay-out of 6.65 cents per share."
"

If things turns around they could change that but it simply means they are being prudent.

Agree - REITS income likely to be flat for some years to come.

However - as soon as interest rates drop (and at some stage they will) will the current dividend yield of 6% (not even considering imputation credits and PIE's) look very flash ... and market will fix that by increasing the SP.

Sometimes I love how the markets work ...

ARG has a pipe line of developments and its looks like they will weather the storm.. and you can see how expenses have been hit in the P&L...

the new accounting standard that put non cash into retained earning in what are likely single DIM consolidated journal ledgers is a joke from the accouting PHD's...

back out the non cash retained earnings as it means now nothing at all... what a joke..

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 17, 2023, 10:30 AMAgree - REITS income likely to be flat for some years to come.

However - as soon as interest rates drop (and at some stage they will) .......

Surely not a prediction BP

Quote from: winner (n) on May 17, 2023, 11:25 AMSurely not a prediction BP

Not a prediction - just a reminder of the negative correlation between the price for real estate (and REITS) with interest rates as well as the correlation between the price for pseudo bonds with interest rates.

Economy 101.

i remember that unit and i picked the big book... everyone else got the small one...

what nightmare always start with beginner guide and then move up...

Quote from: BlackPeter on May 17, 2023, 12:29 PMNot a prediction - just a reminder of the negative correlation between the price for real estate (and REITS) with interest rates as well as the correlation between the price for pseudo bonds with interest rates.

Economy 101.

Gosh are you suggesting you can get an edge on the market and predict the likely future by studying the past.  Surely not  :P
I'm content to collect the 6.1% net PIE yield forever and a day with this one.

Quote from: Basil on May 18, 2023, 10:26 AMGosh are you suggesting you can get an edge on the market and predict the likely future by studying the past.  Surely not  :P
I'm content to collect the 6.1% net PIE yield forever and a day with this one.

As always - it depends.

I assume you realise that there is a difference between extrapolating based on one occurrence of some event, or if you apply generally observed and acknowledged patterns.

Lets take some examples:

If you watch an apple tree with ripe apples and apply Newtons laws, than it is fair enough to assume that these apples (if undisturbed by pickers) will at some stage follow the laws of gravity and fall down to the ground. Important information if you like to make cider.

If we watch however one of Aucklands boy racers crash into one of your neighbours houses, than we can't extrapolate that they will do that next Friday night again - or ever - its just a much more complicated system.

So - ripe apple falling from the tree is something which makes sense to assume. Same thing with the correlation between interest rates and REIT prices.

Boy racer hitting your neighbours house has - as a prediction - a lesser chance to happen again - same as with past performance is no indication for future performance.

But I guess at the end - its all chaotic systems - and even the apple could be hit by a stray bullet of one of Auckland's less friendly inhabitants and explode before it hits the ground. However - its more likely it will drop rather than that it won't.

So at the end - its all about likelihoods. Pick a statistical relevant sample (it worked with many apples before) and you are likely to be fine. Pick a statistical irrelevant sample (this company had two great years, so the next year must be good as well) - and your outcome will be average.

A myth, once circulated, can last a long time. That's because our cognitive machines are rife with glitches.

Just saying

All the Action lately is in GMT... the marlets loves it....

Well, not a chartist - but I used to draw these lines some time ago ... and to me it looks the SP is now braking out of a falling wedge pattern.

ARG falling wedge.JPG

Anybody who does not worry about falling wedges dropping onto their feet might see this as a bullish signal.

I do.

Discl: holding

I hold quite a few already, noting the deep discount to current NTA of $1.57 and strong tax paid PIE yield and think most classes of property move in closer unison that many are prepared to admit.
Shares trade ex divvy on Tuesday with a theoretical ex price of $1.1134.
At that price the forecast tax paid yield for FY24 is 6.65 / 111.34 = 5.97% = 8.9% gross for those on a 33% tax rate.  About half their portfolio is industrial property.
Hard to see you going too far wrong with those fundamental's.
On the TA front of which I am not expert, but it looks like it would break above the 100 day MA shortly if it were not for it going ex divvy on Friday.  I'm no expert on wedges that's for sure unless they come with sour cream and cheese lol, but it does look interesting BP.   I think it's very unlikely this will become an "abandoned baby" anytime soon even if it has felt that way at times in recent months.   I just hold indefinitely; this is as boring as it gets.  Boring with high yield is good. 

YUP with rate at there peek ... a slow climb out is looking likely...

where are rates going to be in 24 months time..

At times like these it always feels like you have plenty of time to react..

But it was march 2020 not long ago...

Quote from: Basil on Jun 03, 2023, 07:42 PMI hold quite a few already, noting the deep discount to current NTA of $1.57 and strong tax paid PIE yield and think most classes of property move in closer unison that many are prepared to admit.
Shares trade ex divvy on Tuesday with a theoretical ex price of $1.1134.
At that price the forecast tax paid yield for FY24 is 6.65 / 111.34 = 5.97% = 8.9% gross for those on a 33% tax rate.  About half their portfolio is industrial property.
Hard to see you going too far wrong with those fundamental's.
On the TA front of which I am not expert, but it looks like it would break above the 100 day MA shortly if it were not for it going ex divvy on Friday.  I'm no expert on wedges that's for sure unless they come with sour cream and cheese lol, but it does look interesting BP.   I think it's very unlikely this will become an "abandoned baby" anytime soon even if it has felt that way at times in recent months.   I just hold indefinitely; this is as boring as it gets.  Boring with high yield is good. 

Yup, they have good occupancy rates and weighted average lease terms. 

ARG_2023-06-04_10-40-24.png

To identify an exit, compute the target price for by adding the height of the pattern to the upward Breakout level. Pattern height is the difference between the highest high and the lowest low. The upward Breakout level is the highest high.

Quote from: Cod on Jun 04, 2023, 10:44 AMARG_2023-06-04_10-40-24.png

To identify an exit, compute the target price for by adding the height of the pattern to the upward Breakout level. Pattern height is the difference between the highest high and the lowest low. The upward Breakout level is the highest high.

So ARG $1.55 here we come

Does TA say how long to get there?

Winner
Often, the steeper the descending broadening wedge's trend lines, the faster the price objective is reached.
Retracements are generally twice as fast as the falling wedge was in its formation.
05-01-2022 to 01-05-2023 time 481 days 481/2 = 240 days till 1.55.

NB.
- In 79% of cases, the exit is bullish.
- In 23% of cases, a descending broadening wedge occurs in a consolidation movement.
- In 81% of cases, the pattern's price objective is achieved when the resistance line is broken.
- In 40% of cases, the price makes a pullback in support on the descending broadening wedge's resistance line.
- The break out point (exit) generally occurs at 60% of the length of the falling wedge.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/413414/396834.pdf

In an attempt to understand all these patterns does it help to study SIN, COS,TAN?

well anyway when it come to fractals its all triangles according to our head tech engineer..

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.07429.pdf#:~:text=Pascals's%20triangle%2C%20shown%20in%20Figure,Sierpinski%20triangle%20or%20Sierpinski%20gasket.

How does one construct a smart building that can rebuilt itself with the help of REGN AI?

You come into work and its where is MY BUILDING!!

AT least he did not tell the Earth Flat joke of Doctor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman...

A lady approached the good doctor and said she knew the earth was flat and it was TURTLES all the way down....

TURTLES... its in his book... you can buy it at your local New York second hand book shop...

A local Librarian had a copy in hamilton as she frequented New York Books shops on tour...

ARG really should have expanded into the Golden Triangle... Its the Next Auckland.

RANDOM.. like the weather today a warm winters day...

Nice back test to breakout line moving away to rise till xmas.
ARG_2023-10-10_15-15-46.png

not fast enough ...

sell it and buy some car stocks ..

thats almost as hard to look at as a Jackson pollock ..

https://www.moma.org/artists/4675

Half year result pretty boring

No pay rise for punters again ....don't they get it there's a cost of living crisis

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442203/attachment/432291/442203-432291.pdf

buildings, buildings, buildings...

with no depreciation allowed and a government that doesnt do accounting and an accounting standard system that is single dimensional consolidated tax reporting they dont have wiggle room but to invest , invest , invest if they can in smart buildings other than offices and retail space.. which means they have to slowly move to boring warehousings and container terminals...

its where its at ...

remember the accounting standards are paper based models...

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 20, 2024, 08:42 AMHalf year result pretty boring

No pay rise for punters again ....don't they get it there's a cost of living crisis

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442203/attachment/432291/442203-432291.pdf

Presentation is here.  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442203/attachment/432292/442203-432292.pdf
Sometimes boring is good.  ARG is a yield story.  Big research paper by Craigs I read recently has them as the highest yield of all listed property stocks.  6.65 cps / 109 = 6.1% PIE tax free yield worth 6.1 / 0.67 = 9.1% effective gross yield for 33% taxpayers.  Back out the 1.6625 cps coming in a few weeks and treat it as partial return of the purchase price those investing for 2025 income are getting 6.65 / (1.09-.016625) = ~ 6.2% tax free worth 9.25% gross for 33% taxpayers.  With the 2% DRP scheme reinitiated if you subscribe to that the effective yield becomes 9.25 / 0.98 = 9.44% gross, paid quarterly.

That will look pretty darn attractive this time next year when term deposits are under 4%.

Looking at the bigger picture with interest rates falling, cap rates should stabilize and eventually provide a tailwind, the economy should start recovering from sometime next year and they have a number of developments in the pipeline.

NTA is now $1.46 and it trades at a decent discount to that.  I think they have done well to keep the dividend yield unchanged this year in light of depreciation no longer being claimable, (unlike KPG who seem to look for any excuse to drop their payout)

I have a moderate position I hold for yield.

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 20, 2024, 08:42 AMHalf year result pretty boring

No pay rise for punters again ....don't they get it there's a cost of living crisis

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442203/attachment/432291/442203-432291.pdf

Well, Its at current SP a dividend yield of 6% - pretty good. Obviously - any punter wishing to receive a higher income from them only needs to buy more shares at the current discount.

It's a PIE so its 6% tax free mate.

Quote from: Basil on Nov 20, 2024, 05:26 PMIt's a PIE so its 6% tax free mate.

True, so could be depending on ones tax status equivalent to something like 8% (or even a bit more) before tax. I can live with that :) - it was not me complaining that the dividend is too small :) ;

See paragraph 1 of post #48 above.  9.44% gross for people on the 33% tax rate who take shares in lieu of dividend.  Worth even more for those earning over $180K on a 39% marginal tax rate.  For a change I am not going to bother with the DRIP and simply take the cash, spend and enjoy it.

Basil, one day if you care to share, I'd be interested to hear the make up of your portfolio - with percentage allocations.  I'm looking at building a pay cheque in retirement and in the process of learning a lot from your posts.

Thanks for your earlier post Basil.  It's a shame people don't read the post immediately before their own, to avoid posting nonsense.  And then you had to spell it out again..... ::)

But what you say is true - a nice yielding stock with little downside risk.

Great Roadshow today. There seems to be some strong tail-winds for Argosy. We were told that the Govt budget yesterday contains some real upside, particularly for ARG. They will be able to depreciate their cost of new commercial builds (I think they said about $60mil worth) by 20% in the first year, which should help to boost profit, so they should be well within their dividend payout range. With interest rates moving in the right direction and some promising projects on the go, they should do very well over the next few years. There could still be some volatilty, if Trump policies substantially affect any of their tenants, but it looks like a solid investment. The dividends, which appeared questionably unsustainable on Wednesday's call with Analysts, now look well covered based on todays meeting. It was good to see Ronaldson at the meeting and hopefully he will share his thoughts with the forum.


Disc: I hold shares in Argosy and bought some more today after the roadshow.

Thanks Alekhine.  I bought some more yesterday on the back of the Govt's announcement too. 

Good post by Ronaldson on the other channel this afternoon.  Good on you guys for going.  I was too busy "tucking into" analysis of MFB.

QuoteYes, a good presentation, underpinned now by the budget announcement referred to post the FY25 Results release, which is very positive for Argosy given its current developments/build intentions and helps offset the impact of removal last year of the 2% annual depreciation deduction allowance on commercial buildings which of course is not reinstated, so much easier now going forward to maintain the existing dividend within AFFO, when some analysts had begun to voice doubts. But other positives include the improved leasing situation, lower insurance costs, easing interest rates flowing thru and the general state of the portfolio which is incrementally recycling towards green industrial buildings, mostly in Auckland.

The CFO is quite comfortable with the outlook and left me reassured that ARG is investible at the current price level, so I will be taking advantage of the DRP for the next quarter and only sell on-market around that time sufficient to meet my immediate cashflow needs. Of course, guidance for FY26 is to repeat the 6.65cps PIE payout at 1.6625cps each quarter, which offers a good yield for holders with some upside in the share price possible. Incidentally NTA is now $1.53 per share so you are buying the asset base with a useful margin to spare!

Looks like that one buyer at $1.205c been there for a while with a 331,940 buy order doesn't appear to be in any hurry to buy, or is it price stabilizer. 

Total melt down in wellington likely to be a cabinet reshuffle soon? country run by lawyers in wellington? 

Finance minister a lawyer? Maybe her second degree was economic?

NATS in real trouble .. it should have been slash and burn on day one... but none of the incumbents can read a balance sheet.

Does this mean a panic 50 or even 75 point cut?

Triggering a rush to buy PIE yield? as the yield on TD's crashes?

The Nats will now panic and do a behind the scenes cuts to everything they can find? or are they now stuffed...

Quote from: Waltzing on Sep 20, 2025, 10:30 AMTotal melt down in wellington likely to be a cabinet reshuffle soon? country run by lawyers in wellington? 

Finance minister a lawyer? Maybe her second degree was economic?

NATS in real trouble .. it should have been slash and burn on day one... but none of the incumbents can read a balance sheet.

Does this mean a panic 50 or even 75 point cut?

Triggering a rush to buy PIE yield? as the yield on TD's crashes?

The Nats will now panic and do a behind the scenes cuts to everything they can find? or are they now stuffed...

Things clearly don't look very flash at the moment. The question is just what the other side would deliver, and sofar they well might look still worse ...

they are worse... they cant count..

these stocks are hedges against a mal functioning economy...

they need to go 100 .... this just shows that the RBNZ has a huge staff that are studying anything but up to date data...

they have been out for how many quarters now? or is it YEARS!!!

If the country has been under performing for over 2 years its now structural.

From another thread Basil asked Could ARG go to $1.40 over the next 12 months? 
A. Yes!

Answer ....YES

Could say similar about KPG. Could KPG go to $1.25 over the next 12 months ?    YES!

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 25, 2025, 12:41 PMFrom another thread Basil asked Could ARG go to $1.40 over the next 12 months? 
A. Yes!

Answer ....YES

Up 3 cents to $1.26 so far today
A lot of term deposits must have matured ...got to put the money to good use
Your $1.40 getting closer by the day

Go Argosy

Topped out at around $1.70 in the last cycle.  I reckon we're still very early in the cycle this time and ARG could go to $1.80 or even more over the course of the next few years as the virtuous cycle of lower interest rates plays itself out.

The virtuous cycle:
Lower interest rates leads to more economic activity, higher occupancy, more earnings, lower capitalization rates which boost NTA, lower funding costs which boosts earnings which boost dividends and many investors looking for decent returns turn to REIT's.  Additionally, the new investment boost immediate 20% tax deduction for new buildings really helps ARG.

Hope RBNZ cut 50 bps next week and kick start the moribund economy. 

Quote from: Basil on Sep 30, 2025, 03:37 PMTopped out at around $1.70 in the last cycle.  I reckon we're still very early in the cycle this time and ARG could go to $1.80 or even more over the course of the next few years as the virtuous cycle of lower interest rates plays itself out.

The virtuous cycle:
Lower interest rates leads to more economic activity, higher occupancy, more earnings, lower capitalization rates which boost NTA, lower funding costs which boosts earnings which boost dividends and many investors looking for decent returns turn to REIT's.  Additionally, the new investment boost immediate 20% tax deduction for new buildings really helps ARG.

Hope RBNZ cut 50 bps next week and kick start the moribund economy. 

Cant resist it mate - you sounding more like Westpac Kelly and other reckonomists evert day ..... and even like Mike Hosking lol

Sorry

NZX says Argosy NTA is $1.53 and a dividend yield of 6.178%

If share price goes to NTA and dividend remains the same I suppose yield drops to more like 5.0%

Better than the bank still

But the time to buy more is now eh

Not much return on ARG bonds for income hunters

ARG010   3.39%   
ARG020   3.70%   
ARG030   4.12%

Lower capitalization rates on higher occupancy rates on more buildings and at higher lease rates per sq m to drive big increases in NTA over the next few years...you read it here first.  NTA and share price about $1.80 - $2.00 in FY28 or FY29 I reckon.   In the meantime just sit back and collect all those lovely tax free quarterly PIE dividends and get stuck into more shares via the DRIP.  That's my plan.  All you need is truck loads of patience to take advantage of the full benefits of this property cycle.

Who did that... WHO DID THAT!  There is no reason to get ahead of the economic cycle and start a buying freeze...1.255...

This chart from a recent preso sort of says ARG doesn't trade above NTA

The grey columns have shrunk lately that's good

Just as well this virtuous cycle is different and share price will go above NTA ..,and an increasing NTA as well

.IMG_6238.jpeg

They've got quite a few properties under development equals more annual rent plus annual rent reviews on existing properties have been about 3.5% from memory.  That combined with lower capitalization rates on rent as we traverse the bottom of the interest rate cycle and with their gearing level, I'd be very surprised if there weren't meaningful NTA increases over the next 3-4 years.  NTA went from $1.45 in FY24 to $1.53 in FY25.   Worth noting is that NTA was $1.74 in 2022 when interest rates were low.  That gives you a heads-up on where the NTA is headed. We're half way through FY26 already and I expect a similar increase to just over $1.60 this year and further NTA increases in subsequent years.  Even if the share price just went back to trading at NTA, like I said earlier that could be circa $1.80-$2.00 3-4 years from now.    Lower funding costs to boost profitability too...check out the interbank swap rate chart at the bottom of this article.  https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/135448/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-tuesday-bnz-cuts-key-mortgage-rate-sharply  $1.40 is not my target mate.  I'm thinking much higher than that over the due course of time.  They say with age comes wisdom.  I'm not so sure about that but I've been working hard on my patience level's over many years.  Sometimes patience is the hardest skill to master and yet can be the most rewarding.  I think that's the case here. 

yes it a buy and dont sell... in an ever increasing risk weight world.. or rather back to normal.. circa since the first big buildings went up.. when was that? Did the guys running those big buildings in the Nile valley make money from them and how much?  whos a whatsit could tell us.. archaeologist Gertrude Bell ... she ran around the place on a camel..and her modern versions.. Bettany Hughes ...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bettany_Hughes...

how much are those buildings worth now...the ones with the pointy bits poking up to the sky's..big investment at the time.. are they paying for themselves now.. anyone got the rate of return on those adjusted for inflation??

gives a whole new meaning to "Investing for the Future"...

.... 1.26... how soon 1.30? amazing...building in NZ... lots of big warehouses going up on the motorway south in the wakatoo...

...one two eight five ? ? ? ?  wow wow wow...

Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 01, 2025, 03:40 PM...one two eight five ? ? ? ?  wow wow wow...

is that 1.285

its  1.29 now......  1.29!!!

its a defensive yield stock... is there radical OCR cuts coming?  is someone hitting the panic buy button?

Recent GDP report was an absolute shocker.  You'd think a 50 bps cut by the RBNZ is the most common sense thing to do, after all most of N.Z. (rural sector boom notwithstanding) has been in recession for more than 5 years since Covid hit !

Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2025, 04:35 PMRecent GDP report was an absolute shocker.  You'd think a 50 bps cut by the RBNZ is the most common sense thing to do, after all most of N.Z. (rural sector boom notwithstanding) has been in recession for more than 5 years since Covid hit !

Westpac Kelly agrees with you ....touting 50 bps next week with OCR to 2.5%

Must be going to happen

https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/nz/2025/10/Economic-Data_011025-MPR-preview_bulletin_01Oct25.pdf

"Quickly moving the OCR to a stimulatory level
will generate confidence and activity ahead
of the important Christmas and summer
trading period".
I liked that bit.  I think that's REALLY important for the N.Z. economy.

Westpac Kelly one of these - "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."  ....and didn't learn from it

Not sure if it's  reality but heard something about a larger than normal NZ bank deposits to mature about now, and suspect the current reinvestment yields might not be tempting as much as a REIT current yield.

Quote from: Otago K on Oct 01, 2025, 05:46 PMNot sure if it's  reality but heard something about a larger than normal NZ bank deposits to mature about now, and suspect the current reinvestment yields might not be tempting as much as a REIT current yield.

One estimate I've seen is household term deposits totaled approximately $160 billion by July 2025, growing from under $100 billion in May 2022

And about $25 billion to mature by Christmas

Suppose a lot going into other things instead of being reinvested

Think I read on interest.co.nz, the vast majority of term deposits are less than a year so there's probably another~ $100 Billion maturing early to mid next year when interest rates on offer might be below 3%.  Tax free yield of 5.2% at the current price worth more than 7.7% gross to 33% taxpayers and ~ 8.5% gross to trusts and those individuals fortunate to be earning over $180K.
 
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/135479/our-largest-home-loan-lender-strikes-wide-ranging-rate-cuts-grabbing-market
Excerpt: To 'pay' for that, they have also cut their term deposit rates, and in that case the reductions are -10 bps to -25 bps across every term. After this drop, those TD rates are now market-lows. With rates for most popular terms now about 3.5%, it isn't hard to foresee sub 3% rates if these trends build over the rest of 2025.

Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2025, 07:33 PMThink I read on interest.co.nz, the vast majority of term deposits are less than a year so there's probably another~ $100 Billion maturing early to mid next year when interest rates on offer might be below 3%.  Tax free yield of 5.2% at the current price worth more than 7.7% gross to 33% taxpayers and ~ 8.5% gross to trusts and those individuals fortunate to be earning over $180K.
 
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/135479/our-largest-home-loan-lender-strikes-wide-ranging-rate-cuts-grabbing-market
Excerpt: To 'pay' for that, they have also cut their term deposit rates, and in that case the reductions are -10 bps to -25 bps across every term. After this drop, those TD rates are now market-lows. With rates for most popular terms now about 3.5%, it isn't hard to foresee sub 3% rates if these trends build over the rest of 2025.

Thanks Basil, interesting article you quote from yesterday.
Graph on the swap rate shows a 1/2 % drop to 2.5% in September which I think might be the minimum our banks will go to. May have hit the here and now for some focus into REITs and other dividend income stock alternatives to be invested into by many retail investors out there.
Any further lending rate cuts will therefore by logic be matched in the interest rates on Bank borrowing paid, so what's the impetus to the values dividend stock are traded at going forward, if as you say, there is a desire to get some economic stimulus in the NZ economy???

KPG at 52 week high

It's all on with these property stocks

Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 02, 2025, 07:57 AMKPG at 52 week high

It's all on with these property stocks

Milford's are keen on more KPG.  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/459942/attachment/453532/459942-453532.pdf  Think they've won the Kiwisaver fund manager of the year award for a few years running now, from memory.

Otago K.  Lower for a LOT longer is my call.  I can foresee the RBNZ dropping the cash rate to 2% by early 2026 and term deposits under 3% and staying there for quite a protracted period.  That makes any company with a long and stable track record of paying 6% gross dividends or more highly attractive, many of which I have written about a lot recently, but also including GNE yielding 8.3% gross at $2.40. 

... 130...  130!!!!! yes even GMT went up... there is something moving out there and its called ?  MONEY!!!!!

Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 02, 2025, 03:15 PM... 130...  130!!!!! yes even GMT went up... there is something moving out there and its called ?  MONEY!!!!!

$1.30

what if the OCR goes to 2 by end of next year in share panic.... share? get that...

I can foresee the OCR at 2% in early 2026 and it staying low for a VERY long time.  Apart from the dairy industry and a few select other primary industries the rest of the economy has been in deep recession for more than 5 years since Covid hit.  That's a dreadful situation that the RBNZ must stimulate the economy to extricate itself from.   If that involves a little more inflation than what's ideal, I reckon so be it.

REIT's just in the very early stage of a multi year upcycle in my opinion and a far safer and higher yielding investment than many other parts of the market.  Love the tax free PIE quarterly returns with tax capped at 28% that I would otherwise be paying 39% tax on.  That's an 11% tax saving !

Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 02, 2025, 09:01 PMwhat if the OCR goes to 2 by end of next year in share panic.... share? get that...

2 OCR announcements left this year, could even be 2 by end of this year? Get the holiday and summer period pumping.

Quote from: SuperMario on Oct 03, 2025, 12:27 AM2 OCR announcements left this year, could even be 2 by end of this year? Get the holiday and summer period pumping.

I agree 100%, that's what is really needed to lift the economy out of its multi year malaise.

gosh 2 percent by early 2026... now that would be very very interesting.. on the Ai modelling side we just moved to the latest anthropic models and to use a non technical term they are smooth compared to the older rather go off into the wilds models.... another technical term..Putting arg back through it now... and will be sending the result to the usual suspects... remember that movie...

off topic: but we will run all the arg financial reports in the project documents back through AI this weekend.

here what the market is saying ...from the horses mouth.. remember it depend what patterns you give it follow and we found the error handling and edge cases to be catered for not as this reports.

"Based on the web search, here's what developers and users are saying about Claude Sonnet 4.5:
Strong Consensus - "Best Coding Model"
Multiple sources confirm it's considered the best coding model currently available, with particularly strong performance on complex, long-horizon autonomous coding tasks Claude Sonnet 4.5 is probably the "best coding model in the world" (at least for now). It scored 77.2% on SWE-bench Verified (82% with extended thinking), and leads the OSWorld benchmark at 61.4% compared to 42.2% just four months ago Claude Sonnet 4.5 is probably the "best coding model in the world" (at least for now).
Speed Advantage
In head-to-head testing, it completed comprehensive code reviews in about 2 minutes versus 10 minutes for GPT-5 Codex Vibe Check: Claude Sonnet 4.5. Developers note it's faster, more steerable, and less overeager than previous Claude versions Vibe Check: Claude Sonnet 4.5.
Critical Nuance - Not Perfect
However, GPT-5 Codex still beats it for some difficult production coding tasks, catching hard-to-find edge cases that Sonnet missed Vibe Check: Claude Sonnet 4.5. One developer found Sonnet finished faster but was brittle, while GPT-5 Codex took longer but added proper error handling, edge cases, and tests Claude Sonnet 4.5 vs GPT-5-Codex: what real developers say | by Open Data Analytics | Sep, 2025 | Medium.
Autonomous Work Capacity
The model can work autonomously for up to 30 hours during trials, building applications, standing up database services, purchasing domain names, and performing SOC 2 audits Anthropic launches Claude Sonnet 4.5, its best AI model for coding | TechCrunch.
Pricing & Availability
Pricing remains the same as Sonnet 4 at $3/$15 per million tokens, and it's available immediately as a drop-in replacement Introducing Claude Sonnet 4.5 \ Anthropic."

Kiwibank, ASB and Westpac economists imploring RBNZ to be bold and cut by 50 bps next week.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976524924/how-bold-will-the-rbnz-be.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%5BBREAKING+News%5D+Westpac+in+negotiations+to+change+adviser+remuneration

must by why gmt move up the last 2 days... the RBNZ probably does not understand what the word recession means after all it went on a green shots hiring spree for the last few years and had new painting of trees commissioned and the Chief numbers man went of a travel spree to the US ...  then disappeared....

He was here for the good times and when they appeared to disappear after the fact ... numbers changed... he disappeared....

ARG sitting ready to move... up? up and ...

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976524932/leaders-property-sector-helps-drive-nz-stocks-higher.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+3+Oct+2025

Excerpt: "Price expected the property stocks to show dividend growth because their financing costs were expected to fall, as swap rates had fallen sharply".

No pay rise again this year ,,,,divie remains the same as pcps.

It least it didn't go down

Don't these guys get it ...cost if living going up

Betcha management got a pay rise

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 19, 2025, 08:50 AMNo pay rise again this year ,,,,divie remains the same as pcps.

It least it didn't go down

Don't these guys get it ...cost if living going up

Betcha management got a pay rise

You could go to the AGM and ask for a divi rise. NTA up 3c to $1.56. They seem to be steady as she goes coming out of a recession. 

QuoteArgosy Property Limited ('Argosy' or the 'Company') has reported its results for the six months to 30 September 2025.

KEY RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD:

• Net property income for the period of $61.2 million, which is up by 4.9% on the prior comparable period.
• $31.3 million interim revaluation gain for the six months to 30 September, up 1.5% on book value, compared to a gain of $8.7 million in the prior comparable period.
• Net profit after tax of $61.1 million, compared to a net profit after tax of $33.0 million in the prior comparable period.
• Net distributable income of $30.7 million, up 11.7% on the prior comparable period.
• Occupancy steady at 96% and a Weighted Average Lease Term (WALT) of 5.4 years, up from 5.1 years at 31 March.
• NTA per share of $1.56, up from $1.53 at 31 March.
• Portfolio gearing at 35.9%, comfortably within the target band of 30-40%.
• Very strong rent review outcomes (4.1% annualised rental growth on rents reviewed).
• Progress on green developments, continuing our portfolio transformation and progress to a 50% green portfolio by 2031 (37.6% at 30 September, including 224 Neilson Street).
• Election of Alex Cutler as a Director at the recent Annual Meeting.
• FY26 full year dividend guidance of 6.65 cents per share reaffirmed.

My thoughts.  This is a very solid result given the very deep recessionary environment.
Rent reviews in particular stood out as being well above the inflation rate.
Great to see the dividend is back under 100% of AFFO, now 97%, was 105%.
Prospects for modest increases in dividends in the years ahead more or less in line with inflation, look sound.
Net tax free yield of 5.4% at the current price plus 1.6625 cps back as a tax free dividend next month.
I think they have weathered the worst recession in decades very well indeed.
Happy holder.

To my mind this is one of the most important "take aways" from the results and obviously applies to all companies in this space.

The Government has recently announced positive reforms to the earthquake-prone building system, which introduce a more risk-based, proportionate approach. Key changes include excluding low-risk areas such as Auckland from the requirements, and allowing Councils to extend remediation deadlines by up to 15 years. Many buildings in low-risk areas will be removed from the register, and remediation deadlines are now more flexible, reducing unnecessary compliance costs.

Removing unnecessary costs combined with the boost tax program should lead to short term profit upgrades.

The impact of this new (boost Tax policy) has been minor for Argosy in the interim period. However, practical completion of Warehouse A at 224 Neilson Street was achieved in October 2025. As such, an estimated Investment Boost deduction of $5.7 million will be available for this development in the second half of this financial year, with a tax effect of $1.6 million.

Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 19, 2025, 08:50 AMBetcha management got a pay rise

Administration expenses were $5.6m for the half year, the same as the previous year.
Be happy mate, we've been paid well throughout all the years of the worst recession in decades.  That's not the case for many landlords I know who have faced increased vacancy level's and much reduced income while carrying the can for rates and insurance on vacant properties leading to significantly reduced net income..  Bottom line, Income being the same for ARG shareholders in a deep protracted recession is a WIN !

From the presentation:-
Outlook
 OUTLOOK IS MORE POSITIVE
 • The domestic economy is expected to gradually improve and there is a significant recent improvement in leasing enquiry.
 • Restrictive interest rates have eased.
 • Insurance premiums are falling as the global insurance market softens.
 • Investment Boost is a positive initiative to encourage development.
 • The strong bottom up fundamentals of the Industrial sector will continue to underpin top line growth.
 • Tenant focus on sustainable initiatives and prime locations is positive for Argosy.
 • Argosy is well placed, with a sound capital position, to continue operating as a green & environmentally sustainable business.

Interest rates on the rise

NZ 10 year now 4.6% and back to where it was a year ago

Won't help the ARG (and others) share price even though zillions of term deposit money supposedly looking for a home

10 year govt stock up 20 bps in recent months but a fall from $1.30 to $1.23 has  boosted the gross yield for 33% taxpayers 50 bps from 7.6% to 8.1%.
Fall looks overdone to me.

buy some... buy some ... more of them...

well its even better buy now!!! its as if the central north island area is a dead zone... ITS NOT... travel out of auckland ... sorry no trains like in sweden where you can wonder along on electric rail and hope off with a bike and wonder around... but you can drive your car down to karapiro and see the developments from the car window and there are others not far off the main road on your car maps...

Huge warehouses going up on what was farm land off the main motor way...

the drive from auckland to the turns off to Tauranga Rotorua and see the growth..

and that is in the recession....

The country may actual be in an advantageous position if it stay politically stable...even thought wellington does everything it can to stop it...

all those liberal studies students who graduated at uni over the last 50 years and created the Great Southern Bureaucracy...



 

A lot of Red in the REITs today.  I wonder what is driving that ?

Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 28, 2026, 03:59 PMA lot of Red in the REITs today.  I wonder what is driving that ?

At a guess the higher than expected rise in CPI inflation, it might mean higher interest rates and lower asset values, particularly interest rate sensitive assets like commercial property.

I was reading about the Japanese govt's long term interest rates rising but not sure if this would affect NZ.

Could be something else, I am just guessing.

Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 28, 2026, 03:59 PMA lot of Red in the REITs today.  I wonder what is driving that ?

Good question.  Feels like an overreaction to last weeks very slight inflation miss and talk of the OCR normalizing to a neutral level 3% next year but is that really all that bad ?

Average target price of 4 analysts is $1.278.  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARGOSY-PROPERTY-LIMITED-10859583/consensus/

P.S. Gosh, that was a sector wide move of significant magnitude today.  I also wonder what has spooked investors in commercial property shares ?

be the rise in the longer end of the yield curves .. its a recession a long one.. imagine the pounding the country has taken...

nerves on markets are shot... or rather dulled...

no one is expecting anything good...

else the current government would be well ahead in the polls....

wait till the next lot come in and cripple the growth....

then the OCR will be cut...

BNZ guy says -

We've pulled forward our forecast start to the Reserve Bank's tightening cycle. We now see a 25bps OCR hike in September and a follow up in December. We'd been talking about this risk in light of the improving eco-pulse. But couple that with today's uncomfortable shift in the inflation outlook and our old forecast for a Feb 2027 start looks late. Still a long way to go with plenty of twists and turns but we think this outlook better centralises the risk profile.

If the Government have any influence then any raise just prior to an election is unlikely IMO.

Guy in local cafe this morning asked me what's up with the ARG share price

I said 'look at that dividend yield'

He ewplied 'yeah bright but I bought around $1.30 when Mark Lister from Craig's was telling punters to buy high yield REITs instead of keepin my cash on term deposits and now I'm 10% down'

I told him better forget them for a few years ...collect 5he divies and you'll be OK

Maybe bad advice ....dont come across him that often

Must admitted it's very surprising to see them at $1.17.

Change from last Friday on listed property.

PFI   2.360   2.230   (0.130)   (5.508%)
ARG   1.220   1.170   (0.050)   (4.098%)
SPG   1.340   1.295   (0.045)   (3.358%)
KPG   1.030   1.000   (0.030)   (2.913%)
GMT   1.930   1.905   (0.025)   (1.295%)
IPL   1.120   1.110   (0.010)   (0.893%)
PCT   1.155   1.150   (0.005)   (0.433%)

Seems over done to me.  I've put a big order in for some units in the Kernel NZ Commercial Property Fund. 

when the market realise that AI will take maybe a decade to mature and the funding crunch comes at a DOT COM moment investors may think defensive is good.. and some really big geo political risk land somewhere.. 1.00 to 1.20 might look cheap...

silver just moved big... and it was DOWN... before you could hock off the family silver.... pitty lots of silver round here could be moved...

Over the last month NZ 10 Year Rate gone from 4.39% to 4.62% .... and still trending up .........and property stocks are all down .... next week could be interesting

ARG -6.4%
KPG -4.7%
PCT -2.9%
GMT -1,4%
PFI -4.2%
SPG -8.3%
VHP -3.5%

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 31, 2026, 11:24 AMOver the last month NZ 10 Year Rate gone from 4.39% to 4.62% .... and still trending up .........and property stocks are all down .... next week could be interesting

ARG -6.4%
KPG -4.7%
PCT -2.9%
GMT -1,4%
PFI -4.2%
SPG -8.3%
VHP -3.5%

Yeah, seems to be some commentary around of OCR rates to lift in the second half of 2026. I'm starting to again doubt the sensibility of going overweight on REITs the last 20 months when I thought there were real buying opportunities.

ITS a Hawkins paradox.. economy pickups , ocr kickups, RIETs go down and then have a slow rise back.. REITS are not growth stocks ... even when the economy is growing...

You buy them when there is a BIG BAD event...and sell when the good times roll... or hold for DIV... your AVE should be under 1.20.. not over in this decade... or maybe the next...they are more like the ballast in your portfolio..

I believe the recovery in the economy is fragile and the reaction with REITS is overdone.

if it goes under 10 well...

It appears ACC has been selling some down...

The comp props have been all over the place for a while..

so much for low interest rates ....

wonder how the insto have done on metals the other day...and did they buy european war stocks 2 years ago...

when and if this blows you may want some of these boring no growth shares...

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/9a6d6e5b-a817-4045-b91b-a8cc89d28a07

ARG unloved at the moment ...down to 115

Suppose not surprising as 10 Year Govt still trending up

Salt reckon the gap to bond rates has hardly ever been higher.
I topped up with some more ARG yesterday at $1.15 and remain on the bid for more at that price.  5.78% net yield at that price and a quarterly divvy next month.  5.78% net is worth 5.78 / 0.61 = ~9.5% gross for 39% taxpayers.
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_fa79c5b435e84eab92663c79cdfd9a1a.pdf

waiting for 1.10 .... or 1.08... or will that be like the wait for HLG and it never got down to it historical BUY.. why cause AUS did not dip into a monumental recession....

lets hope the new southern motorway to central north island and the new rail transits in auckland motorway widening does not result in productivity increasing in auckland and Auckland and central North Island economies returning to there busting best before we can buy them Dirt Cheap...

"Dirt Cheap" ... pun there...

Quote from: Basil on Feb 06, 2026, 01:06 PMSalt reckon the gap to bond rates has hardly ever been higher.
I topped up with some more ARG yesterday at $1.15 and remain on the bid for more at that price.  5.78% net yield at that price and a quarterly divvy next month.  5.78% net is worth 5.78 / 0.61 = ~9.5% gross for 39% taxpayers.
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_fa79c5b435e84eab92663c79cdfd9a1a.pdf

Gap to bond rates hardly ever been higher Salt say

Suppose that means they expect ARG yield to shrink .....with share price going up .....yes?

Or they will

if your holding comp props for decades your buying for the wrong reason...

want growth you need to buy global stocks and hit buy fast... for example memory chips have been on fire ever since the first VN chips came out...

now some token windows are at a million token * Bytes....

and they have slowed the process down to allow to Check itself more often and this is just within a few recent months.. that takes more memory..

GUNS GUNS and Vissles...

But comp props... they arnt going anywhere... and that means in 5 years the yields will likely be higher... they are retirement stocks...

now HLG and retail... high risk and reward...

track COMP PROP yield to OCR rates in 2007...

they arnt expecting yield to shrink but the yield at the long end is risk free and almost as high but it does not come with IMP Credits and excluded income...

Ai worked it out finally and now populated transaction entry with all dividend properties along with normal bank transactions...

AI can then instantly work out the investment portfolio returns in third party banking apps..

and inform investors with this level of access which options will be best for the individual investor..

The investor wont need salt...except to trade in of course...

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 07, 2026, 12:47 PMGap to bond rates hardly ever been higher Salt say

Suppose that means they expect ARG yield to shrink .....with share price going up .....yes?

Or they will

Salt guys seem to be saying that the ARG share price should be over $1.40 if the gap was normal

Suppose that's why the gurus arvSalt have gone long on property companies.

KPG dirt cheap at 98.5 cps this morning in my opinion.

KPG is more exposed to structural changes like WFH and AI-disruption than Argosy?

QuoteARG is more office-exposed on paper (37%), but it's anchored by industrial (53%), which is generally a hedge against this theme.  �
   •   KPG is more exposed to the structural shift because:
   •   Its strategy is explicitly retail-led mixed-use with a large office + retail ecosystem (so office softness can reduce "halo" benefits for onsite retail/dining/services).  �
   •   Third-party credit commentary pegs KPG's mix at ~66% mixed-use, 25% office as at 30 Sep 2025 (consistent with KPG's reporting).  �

✅ Answer: KPG is more vulnerable overall to the AI/WFH trade (because its core is mixed-use + offices + retail ecosystems), even though ARG has a higher pure "office %" line item.  �

dont tell anyone they are cheap it might be the buy of the decade.. decades...

They're very cheap, like a whole aviary full of budgies that squawks cheep cheep loudly all the time lol.  If I didn't have so many already I'd get the truck out and back it up.  I did do a small top-up on ARG this morning at the open at $1.15.  Decent discount to NTA and 9.5% equivalent gross return for 39% taxpayers.  Who needs retirement companies that pay you nothing for years in a row but if they can turn themselves around okay might or might not pay you a miserable 1 or 2% in a few years time.  Why bother with them ?

This seems like a good move

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/467214/attachment/461901/467214-461901.pdf

The sale price reflects a premium of 16.6% above its book value. -- From the notice to shareholders regarding 4 Henderson Place.

Now consider that this premium probably applies (more or less) to all the REITS and all their portfolio's of property. We haven't seen property portfolio price rise significantly in three years, they have in fact fallen -- An interesting question to ask is, what happens when they all rise significantly? and how will that effect NTA?

I'm not sure we can infer that all property is undervalued by that premium.  For example Kiwi Property just sold ASB wharf for a 3.3% discount to its carrying amount.

Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 11, 2026, 12:18 PMI'm not sure we can infer that all property is undervalued by that premium.  For example Kiwi Property just sold ASB wharf for a 3.3% discount to its carrying amount.

Thats why I said more or less.

Argosy have plenty of other development opportunities.  I see Henderson as a very poor, low growth area and I think it was a great move selling at that sized premium.  This is what can happen when a property is not on the market but someone else approaches you with an offer you can't refuse.  There's a saying that everything's for sale if the price is right and that's what's happened here. 
Disc: I hold quite a few.

up today is that a bounce after ACC dumped million in that notice?  with the country now in election year and the polls deadlocked the chances of a high growth country are gone...

take you dividends where you can find them...

hoping for 1.10....

hopeium is not a strategy but is that all that is left... HUNG parliment apparently...

Capitalism... terrible really...but its all thats left.. TINA...well Tibet monks would disagree ...

dont buy this stock!!! its a no growth stock.. why is the price going up!!!

now if you want a growth stock BUY ANZ...

Buy Turners... buy TINA - according to Winner the CEO somehow is a magician one moment looking like a Hedgehog and actually hes a FOX... well all good car salesman look like foxes to me.. ever studied the HG?  stays in one place for ages and curls up into a ball... cant see any CEO being an HG... 

anyway dont  buy this stock!!  it should be plummeting like a.... bit coin...and its an HG.. only does one thing.. houses stuff..i forgot in this country houses are very sort after..

No pay rise again ...haven't they heard about this cost of living crisis

March divie 1.6625

Consistent with guidance provided last year. Might get a pay rise for FY27 year.

Quote from: Basil on Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 AMConsistent with guidance provided last year. Might get a pay rise for FY27 year.

You joking eh

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARGOSY-PROPERTY-LIMITED-10859583/finances/
Average rating of 4 brokers "Outperform" Target price is $1.28
I have no idea if there's going to be an increase or not in dividend next year mate but its probably worth noting that thew average broker forecast is for it to remain the same.  Tax free yield at $1.15 is 5.78%, take shares in lieu of dividend at 2% discount and sell them later that becomes 5.78 / 0.98 = 5.9% net and its paid quarterly.  5.9% tax free is worth 8.8% gross to 33% taxpayers and 9.7% to 39% taxpayers.  Solid yield in a low interest rate environment. 

Commercial property market update from Chris Dibble at JLL

Highlights are -

Office sector shows signs of recalibration

Industrial sector remains the standout performer

Retail market evolves amid continued revival


https://images.discover.jll.com/Web/JLL/%7B9a4d1f5d-67c8-41d1-acb0-8880010c4e45%7D_4Q25_Market_Dynamics_-_website_version.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ap-nz-bnd-res-market-dynamics-4q25-0226&utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=83441

Isn't this kind of like Barfoots telling us how great the residential real estate market is doing (ie absolutely worthless)?

Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 18, 2026, 11:57 AMCommercial property market update from Chris Dibble at JLL

Highlights are -

Office sector shows signs of recalibration

Industrial sector remains the standout performer

Retail market evolves amid continued revival


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yes its like staples but everything get sold off together even when space get short as land use competes...

Comp Props still getting hammered...

10 Year Govt Stock spiked close to 4.7% yesterday and ARG share price reacted accordingly

10 year rate down a bit but today so ARG share price migh5 go uo ...tomorrow

But then a broker says correlation to bond spreads is rubbish these days so no worries

Migh5 get back to 120 one day ...soon

dont think  the retail investor drives these comp prop stocks as the vol by the instos sets it price over the longer run...

if the instos dont want them it could take while..

ARG chart looks rather sad ...and this before todays ex divie action ...now $1.12

Be same prices as KPG at this rate

IMG_6379.jpeg

not unless the dividend is reduced... expect KPG to if it plans succeed to slowly climb ...if they execute..

Very soft prices for both KPG and ARG, a bit surprising.

expect ARG to hopefully grow there portfolio over the next 10 years... 

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 10, 2026, 05:15 PMBut then a broker says correlation to bond spreads is rubbish these days so no worries

You often graph these things which shows you collect the numbers....have you run a correlation on this and/or the other REITs?  I am also curious why the broker said that and what it was based on....?

Quote from: Ferg on Mar 11, 2026, 09:04 AMYou often graph these things which shows you collect the numbers....have you run a correlation on this and/or the other REITs?  I am also curious why the broker said that and what it was based on....?

Thinking was triggered when Basil posted thay Salt Funds said gap to bonds had never been wider and share price should be 1.40

But then Craig's did some work on REITs and concluded the LPV Premium (the spread between LPV dividend yields and the five year swap rate) has returned to pre-Covid levels. This suggests the sector is now fairly valued at current price levels, with limited scope for further multiple expansion unless the interest rate outlook improves."

Might have misinterpreted what Salt said - the relationship isn't actually broken so that means I disagree with Salt and agree with Craig's

The only long term I've keep going is KPG and the model of KPG share price v 10 Year Govt comes out that KPG share price should be about 94/96 now. A bit spooky eh

I last did the model with ARG a couple of years ago ....interesting the ARG correlation was stronger than KPG

So it seems the miserable ARG share price today might be what some call 'fair value'

Actually over time AI thinks if your high income earner this is as SIR B says.. NZ PIE is the key..its a buy on the higher bond yields - and the price spikes are probably retail investors...

Anthropic's  SoftMax Algo Model (AI) - the blurting machine says this...

""Risk-free" is a convention, not a fact. Government bonds carry real risks:

Inflation risk — a 4.71% nominal yield becomes a real loss if inflation runs at 3.1%+, as it currently does in NZ
Fiscal/sovereign risk — governments can default (Argentina, Greece), inflate away debt, or restructure. NZ's total bond issuance program is projected at NZ$135 billion through 2029 — that is a real supply and creditworthiness question
Currency risk — offshore holders of NZ government bonds face NZD depreciation eroding returns
Duration risk — a 10-year bond held to maturity locks in today's yield; if rates rise further, the mark-to-market loss is substantial
Refinancing/rollover risk — governments that must continuously roll debt in a rising yield environment face compounding fiscal pressure

The market convention exists for modelling convenience, not because it reflects reality. The "risk-free rate" is simply the lowest-risk instrument in a given currency — it sets the floor, but the floor itself is not riskless.
The practical implication for ARG:
If you accept that NZ government bonds carry real inflation and fiscal risk, then the 72bps gross spread between ARG equity (5.43%) and government bonds (4.71%) understates ARG's relative attractiveness — because you are not actually giving up safety when you buy ARG instead of government bonds. You are exchanging one set of risks (sovereign, inflation, duration) for a different set (property, vacancy, leverage) — but receiving hard asset backing, rental growth, and PIE tax efficiency in return.
The institutional market prices as if the government bond is genuinely risk-free. That mispricing is part of what creates the structural discount ARG trades at relative to NTA."

Ok if that is a bit confusing think of this way..

You bought ARG in covid at 1.25 and you sold at 1.60....

why... well becuase you understood that the ocr was near 0 or under and the Spread to Yield on the dividend was HUGE!!! and the government was paying everyone to stay at home...

money for jam...

10 year was yield was low... boy was a gift..

now your complaining cause the yield is pushing the two together but what your not thinking about is the LOSSES the holders of older 10 bonds are suffering now as the yield gees higher on the 10 year yield...

The price on the 10 year is lower forcing the selling...

YOU can buy the ARG stock at a LOWER price since you sold at 1.60 and .... wait....

and low and behold you now want the SH to close.. oil to spike and a global recession to force OCR up higher until the market crashes and low and behold you kept buying as ARG goes even lower...

Now reserve banks lower the OCR the yields on the 10 year plummet and ..... you got it... YOU SELL when ARG goes up up and away...If the SH dont close and the tankers dont burn... well you get the dividend and wait for another world event that blows everything up...

now i know what your thinking.. that horrible.. well thats how people like Soros and DUNK a Miller think... of course you grew reading Lyres Poker right? who didnt!!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar%27s_Poker

If you did not have a copy of this book from a second hand book shop.. well lost mine travelling..Dont buy reits unless you understand what instos bond holders buy and sell and when...

10 Year Govt still on rise ...now over 4.7%

Maybe ARG share price will fall further today - as some punters won't be wanting to hold over the weekend in case things get really bad

should be a dollar soon...bargain...

I'm just going to do a possum in the headlights and see what happens.

Argosy seems most exposed to office space and WFH and AI concerns

NZ 10 year rate creeping up again = no joy for ARG/KPG share price

Note: the ARG share price does not always move in direct reversion to the bond yields.. it appears to be at the moment but a long look at the data points would be required and there are period of up to a year where it does not.

oh dear it popped back up again as the 10 year yield also popped up..

sometimes things go together.... until they dont...looks like that 1.00 was a false hope... for now...

Govt 10 Year still going up - could be 5.0% later this week

So ARG et al share prices under pressure again

Not specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 27, 2026, 01:15 PMNot specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

I can only guess that this is a reflection of where people think interest rates are headed. Not sure where to look for the best indication but here is a graph of the 10 year US treasury yield

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart.

Looking at the NZ10yr if you bought in October last year interest rates would explain some of the fall. Recessionary conditions affecting tenants might also be an issue but the REITS would tend to have the biggest and best tenants.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NZ10Y-NZ

Gold's fall might be partly explained by the possibility of rising interest rates.

Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 27, 2026, 01:15 PMNot specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

If you thought it was good value and/or a good investment at the previously higher price, would it now be a better investment to buy at a lower price?  Or has your reason for buying changed?

yes at the moment its tracking the 10's but then these are defensive stocks and when they wont track it forever..

Just remembered winner69 tracks KPG with the 10yr (I assume govt 10 yr bond). You could follow him to find good times to buy property stocks.

It would be interesting if Ray Dalio is right and we have entered an upward trajectory in the long-term interest rate cycle.

Jeremy Grantham had an interesting theory regarding inflation. He thinks it is likely we will get more price rises as commodities become more scare. All the easy oil has been found all the large easy to mine copper deposits and other minerals have probably been found. All speculation but it would be interesting if interest rates slowly rose over time a lot of current low yield current investments would not look good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8sPQom4cnc

You might not want to watch it all but at the start Jeffrey Gundlach says he is formulating a theory we might not see interest rates fall like they did in the first 40years of his career. he is not arrogant enough to state it as a fact but he talks about some things he has watched that might indicate it is happening. Obviously US based.

Quote from: Ferg on Mar 27, 2026, 03:46 PMIf you thought it was good value and/or a good investment at the previously higher price, would it now be a better investment to buy at a lower price?  Or has your reason for buying changed?

I'd buy more but I've got my full portfolio allocation. 

Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 27, 2026, 01:15 PMNot specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

I feel you mate. Its been painful.  I think the vast majority of investors have suffered a fair bit of pain since the war started. Its been hard to find places to hide. Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq all down 7%+ this month, many other overseas markets, much worse. Even Gold and Silver have been smashed in recent weeks. Gosh, I would have thought they'd be a safe haven in a storm, go figure? 

Share values go up and down, it's not a new concept and no worrying is not going to change anything so why do that. This current issue will be over at some point and then there will be a different one, the wheels on the bus go round and round. Being overly concerned about a particular moment in time might be a sign that a particular investment or particular stratagy is not for you, listen to that sign it's trying to educate you.

Quote from: Basil on Mar 28, 2026, 11:26 AMI feel you mate. Its been painful.  I think the vast majority of investors have suffered a fair bit of pain since the war started. Its been hard to find places to hide. Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq all down 7%+ this month, many other overseas markets, much worse. Even Gold and Silver have been smashed in recent weeks. Gosh, I would have thought they'd be a safe haven in a storm, go figure? 

As indicated earlier - have a look at WW2!

Gold price actually peaked in 1934 (when Hitler got established) and stayed high with another height in 1939 (when WW2 started).

Throughout WW2 gold price dropped already by something like 25 % - no matter how loud the bombs ... and after WW2 gold price nearly halved. It took gold several decades to reach the 1934 value again.

I'd say we have now all the idiots running WW3 firm established and the years to come will show us how many bombs are still left to explode. Not sure though I'd expect gold price to keep going up form here. Maximium in risks has been reached, and now its just people suffering before humans decide that negotiation is the better way. Given the intelligence and age of the  curent strongmenclass - give it a decade or two, but don't expect gold prices to keep rising ...

There are important differences between way back WW2 times and now which probably affect the gold price. For example it was illegal for most Americans to own private gold from April 5, 1933, to December 31, 1974. President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933, requiring citizens to deliver most gold coins, bullion, and certificates to the Federal Reserve to combat the Great Depression. This restriction was fully lifted by President Gerald Ford in 1974.

Quote from: Raven on Mar 29, 2026, 01:33 PMThere are important differences between way back WW2 times and now which probably affect the gold price. For example it was illegal for most Americans to own private gold from April 5, 1933, to December 31, 1974. President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933, requiring citizens to deliver most gold coins, bullion, and certificates to the Federal Reserve to combat the Great Depression. This restriction was fully lifted by President Gerald Ford in 1974.

Sure - things are always different. How do they say - history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.

One thing which will stay is the influence of greed and fear creating cycles.

... and absolutely - anybody who wants to change their last shirt for a gold bullion - go for it! You may or may not be lucky.

NZ 10 Year Govt still creeping up

Not good for likes of Argosy

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 30, 2026, 12:28 PMNZ 10 Year Govt still creeping up

Not good for likes of Argosy

Do you still remember these 30 year US bonds with negative interest rates? Hey, markets have got as much idea as anybody else what the future might bring.

Not sure what interest rates did during WW2, but I know what happened afterwards. At least in some of the economies it was pretty bad to hold cash and much better to hold stocks and property. Which means that holding property stocks well might add a bit of security compared to holding cash.

What sort of interest rate do you think the $100mill in green bonds due in Oct will roll over at? Currently 2.9%. Are ARG's bonds better than a 10yr Govt bond?. Shorter duration maybe.

If we said the 100,000,000 rolls over at 4.9% then that is an additional 2% on $100,000,000 or $2mill extra interest per year plus another $125mill currently at 2.2% rolling over in Oct 2027. Although $2mill is not much on a $59mill operating cash surplus although $4mill starts being noticeable.

I still reckon it would be good if we knew whether we have started the upward leg of a long term interest rate cycle. Sadly we will only know this in hindsight.

Thinking about the 4.9% guess in my post above, looked at the ARG annual report weighted average interest rate on all debt is 5.11% so other debt is probably quite a bit higher. A 4% increase becomes $8mill.

I appreciate property companies do not like to have a greater than 40% LVR but based on the 2025 annual report the properties are valued on a 6.1% yield (132,732gross rental/2,148,896 investment properties) if this went to say 8% the property would be worth $1,659,150 while debt remain around $755,000mill which would take the LVR to 46%.

Not sure where I am going with this but I can see the need to keep interest rates permanently low. Sadly ARG is going to see the interest rates on $225,000,000 probably at least double over the next two years.

Winner will have to keep us posted on where the 10yr rate is going.

Quote from: Apollo on Mar 31, 2026, 07:42 AMThinking about the 4.9% guess in my post above, looked at the ARG annual report weighted average interest rate on all debt is 5.11% so other debt is probably quite a bit higher. A 4% increase becomes $8mill.

I appreciate property companies do not like to have a greater than 40% LVR but based on the 2025 annual report the properties are valued on a 6.1% yield (132,732gross rental/2,148,896 investment properties) if this went to say 8% the property would be worth $1,659,150 while debt remain around $755,000mill which would take the LVR to 46%.

Not sure where I am going with this but I can see the need to keep interest rates permanently low. Sadly ARG is going to see the interest rates on $225,000,000 probably at least double over the next two years.

Winner will have to keep us posted on where the 10yr rate is going.

Oh dear. If you are worried about the impact of higher interest rates, then you better don't look at ARG's budget, but at the balance sheets of many large countries, where debt to GDP is ways above 100% (some, like Japan above 200%) - and many of them just keep the debt load rising (like US 124% and Trump keeps raising it). So, yes, if interest rates go up significantly, our world economy will have a problem, never mind the ARG balance sheet.

So, you are right - we will have a problem, but it probably better be discussed under world affairs. Never mind ARG.

Thanks Apollo for highlighting the interest rate risk on those bonds which are maturing in due course.  Your concerns are valid but they need to be considered in the context of the ongoing rental growth ARG has been achieving year over year and the fact that their portfolio as a whole according to the valuers is considerably under-rented in terms of existing leases relative to current open market rates for the portfolio which suggests solid rental growth will continue in the years ahead as leases roll off fixed term agreements and are renewed.

ARG management are some of the best and most experienced in the business and I am sure they can be relied upon to navigate the challenges ahead.

The dividend outlook for FY27 and other outlook commentary in the FY26 result coming late next month will give us valuable insights into the forward looking prognosis.  Noting the current yield at 6.65 cps on the $1.13 closing price yesterday gives a PIE net of tax return to investors of 5.9%, worth 8.8% and 9.7% gross for individuals on a 33 and 39% tax rate.  Those are very attractive effective gross yields.

Probably well worth noting that analysts who will already be modelling out changes to the cost of funding in the years ahead are predicting steady dividend payments for FY27 and FY28 consistent with FY26.  Average target price of 4 analysts is $1.28 and rating is "Outperform"
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARGOSY-PROPERTY-LIMITED-10859583/consensus/

Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 01, 2026, 08:57 AMSo, you are right - we will have a problem, but it probably better be discussed under world affairs. Never mind ARG.

Sorry I had thought interest rates might be important when considering property and utility companies, I want to get dividends out of them whereas I pay tax to fund govt debt, which, your right is a different conversation to be had on a different thread.

Quote from: Apollo on Apr 01, 2026, 04:17 PMSorry I had thought interest rates might be important when considering property and utility companies, I want to get dividends out of them whereas I pay tax to fund govt debt, which, your right is a different conversation to be had on a different thread.

As above when Basil noted your thoughts held some merit, rightly in some regard or rather harshly wrongly on sentiment (too beat down type of thing) Mr Market treats the REITs very SP sensitive to interest rates. As a NZ tax resident holder the PIE impact particularly differentiates the after tax yield to the stated gross yield posted for these NZ REIT holdings.

Very true that at times the interest rates on debt can push or exceed the gross rental yields of their properties, and that some REIT managers will regrettably be happy to purchase commercial property within those parameters, so needs to be watched as an investor.

Regards your post 182 personally I don't appreciate REIT managers hitting 40% LVR type levels but sometimes find it's reflected in the discounts they trade to NTA. I try to construct my own valuation level and account for it as one factor within the discounts these vehicles need for me to see longer term values in whatever the current SP, I'm not looking to buy for today as much as the 12 to 24 plus months horizon.

News of the day saw PFI secure a 5.35% rate on some bonds to mature Oct 2032, which sits quite close to the existing 5.43% rate they have on the $150M of Sept 2030 maturity bonds. Will be interesting for me to see how market takes up the $150M on offer or additional over subscription optional $50M in these times.

Much as I know over the next 12 to 24 months there will undoubtedly be times the SP will see to be investing into quality REITs at present as not a bad decision, I'm still mindful that the current cycle low SP may not have been met for them. discl currently overweight into the sector, have a BUY on one ticker placed before trade on the 30th March that just missed to meet the day low price, and I am currently holding cash to match 6 months of my spending budget plus 15% to 28.xx% of my portfolio balances. Days of using a revolving credit facility are in the past for me, but wouldn't sit easy to be utilising it at the moment to invest in equities, things change and maybe in near term that thought would have changed,but not personally in that stage of life now days.

Hope coherent, just a little colloquial if not rambling I know.

I was going to mention the 5.35% bond PFI offer this morning after I saw it in the herald, just because Blackpeter p*ssed me off yesterday. Not that I know or understand anything.

I do not know much about PFI but in the 30/06/2025 annual report the fixed rate bonds were 4.59 and 4.25%.

The share price has fallen 13% over the last six months for some reason.

Maybe I would be better discussing this under world affairs Blackpeter?

Quote from: Apollo on Apr 02, 2026, 08:07 AMI was going to mention the 5.35% bond PFI offer this morning after I saw it in the herald, just because Blackpeter p*ssed me off yesterday. Not that I know or understand anything.

I do not know much about PFI but in the 30/06/2025 annual report the fixed rate bonds were 4.59 and 4.25%.

The share price has fallen 13% over the last six months for some reason.

Maybe I would be better discussing this under world affairs Blackpeter?

Oh dear. P*ssing off an old greek god (but hey, the statues all show a young man ...) ... how bad can it get?

Look, if we both look at the same coin, than you  might see a number and I might see an eagle ... and we both could be right. I assume the same was the thing with my post which seems to have annoyed your divine meanings. Please accept my appology for not considering your different point of view in my rather short post.

You may or may not have noticed that basically all Real Estate shares dived in the last year or so ... so maybe its more than the one bond you mentioned. Maybe its even just the markets feeling that interest rates will go up and therefore reducing the stock price to keep the dividend appropriate ...?

If you look at which contributes to the price of a real estate company - than sure,

* higher interest clearly is a negative - even independent of low interest rates for the budget going up or not. Higher Interestrates clearly require a lower P/E for real estate stocks staying competitive.

But obviously - its not the only thing.

* If the market thinks real estate prices will go up, the price will be different from when the market thinks real estate goes down. Which one will it be? Omniscience might help in that, but not that sure about the greek gods.

* Company management and perspectives make a big difference, and  - and beagle wrote  a good post about that.
 
So, I guess I just looked at the eagle (and yes, too much public debt will be one of the biggies in the years and decades to come) ... and forgot that you see the other side of the coin (some more money for Argosy to pay). Absolutely - talking about this credit is appropriate for this thread. While I don't see it as a biggie for Argosy - it clearly will slightly add to their costs. You mentioned the number yourself. How the earnings look next year, we will see ... and the bigger issue probably will be whether the orange man's war will overall get interest rates up again or whether its just a short peak in an otherwise rather low interest environment.

OK - not quite sure about the redemption cycle for Greek gods. Is an appology good enough? I don't want to end up as Agamemnon ... but hey, there was as well the thing with Zeus, wasn't it? Amazing divine history ...

No need for apologies, not that upset, just thought I might wind you up this morning, but Otago K beat me to it.

I agree govt debt across the western world is high and the likely solution is high inflation and low interest rates which should benefit the property companies unless their tenants go broke.

But if you believe in cycles perhaps lower and lower interest rates are a thing of the past 30-40years not for the future. Who buys bonds at less than the inflation rate??? central banks???

But that is a discussion for another thread.

Finally some green in my NZ REIT portfolio - hopefully we can claw back some of the shocking start to the year.

Hope so mate, its been like bashing your head against a brick wall over and over again so far this year with only temporary relief for pain killers from the March quarterly dividends..

Quote from: Basil on Apr 08, 2026, 04:42 PMHope so mate, its been like bashing your head against a brick wall over and over again so far this year with only temporary relief for pain killers from the March quarterly dividends..

Not to worry Basil. There will be $3.2 bil floating around next week from FSF payout looking for a home also a little 25c div from SEK the next day. Maybe some might go to ARG and TRA and a few others.   

No pay rise again this year and seems to be no pay rise next year as week

Miserable sods ....don't they know about this cost of living crisis

Betcha management got a decent pay rise to make such decisions

NTA $1.60, share price $1.07 ?
Why are they investing in new projects at a 5% gross yield when their cost of funds is very close to that at 4.8% ? Why not buy your own shares back instead which is guaranteed to be EPS acrretive ?

Agree with Winner. Very disappointing there's no dividend increase in FY27. Its time to do some barking and make sure the board and management know some shareholders are not impressed.

Argosy Roadshows start later this week. Any shareholder and NZSA member can register - and tell management what you think about dividends (or any other relevant question you have on mind). Just remember to register to get a place ... 

https://www.facebook.com/nzshareholders/photos/argosy-property-is-coming-to-13-locations-nationwide-between-22-may-and-15-june-/1001823255860006/

Personally - I will go to the Christchurch event, but don't think that the lack of a dividend raise will be my most important thing. Last time i checked, the dividend yield was 6.2%, and this doesn't even contain the PIE tax advantages ...

A buyback here feels like a no brainer...holders can buy more with their dividends of course but I'd rather a smaller dividend was combined with a significant buyback

There's no need to have a smaller dividend.  They need to stop making non eps accretive acquisition's at so close to their cost of funds its ridiculous.  Just buy back your own shares instead which is guaranteed to be EPS accretive for remaining shareholders.

Quote from: Basil on May 20, 2026, 11:31 AMThere's no need to have a smaller dividend.  They need to stop making non eps accretive acquisition's at so close to their cost of funds its ridiculous.  Just buy back your own shares instead which is guaranteed to be EPS accretive for remaining shareholders.

Maybe. I guess there are pros and cons to buybacks, and this is certainly a larger discussion then just Argosy.

But yes, it might be worthwhile to ask about their investment strategy. Maybe they lost the plot - or maybe they expect their investments to grow in price?

I think the Auckland meeting is this Friday - are you going?

Its in my diary and I have reserved myself a spot.  I am mulling over this afternoon whether that's the right forum to raise my questions. 

Maybe the ARG share price will do another 'post GFC run'

2010 to 2019 looked good times

IMG_6453.jpeg

Sobering stuff that the share price is the same as it was 20 years ago.  RBNZ inflation calculator says share price should be $1.75 to keep up with inflation over the last 20 years.  Good yield and huge discount to NTA but the long run performance relative to inflation is depressing.
FY27 will be the fifth year in a row dividends have not gone up. 

I suppose the board think they have done a good job maintaining consistent uninterrupted quarterly dividends considering the almost endless recession the economy has been in since Covid hit in early 2020 and in some respects you could argue they have done okay.

Same as KPG.

90c 7th of January 2000

Traded between 91 and 92.5 today.... ::)

Great yield but no growth sums them both up.

In the media. -

Buyback possible?

Asked on the conference call whether a share buyback was on the cards, given the discount its shares traded at relative to net tangible assets, chief financial officer Dave Fraser replied that it was possible.

"Certainly, if developments get stalled and we do sell these assets and we have a lazy balance sheet, then we would definitely look at a buyback as an option," Fraser told the call.

CEO Mence added: "The first cab off the rank, of course ... is turning the DRP off, which is effectively raising equity at a discount at the moment. So, tick that one off.

"When we see the opportunities there, then that would be evaluated against all the other options, but it's always on the agenda."

Quote from: Basil on May 20, 2026, 05:15 PMGreat yield but no growth sums them both up.

But both trading well under NTA. Have probably grown asset value (over 26 years not hard in real estate) but not grown earnings/revenue accordingly.

But like anything, there is a time and a place.

I'm liking a few more KPG, especially if can get more at a good price, with a dividend feed coming up in a couple of weeks. 

Quote from: Sideshow Bob on May 21, 2026, 08:17 AMI'm liking a few more KPG, especially if can get more at a good price,

For what its worth I bought a few more at 91 cents yesterday. At least they have a goal of growing dividends at 3% per annum, even if not achieved at least they have that as a goal. 

Quote from: winner (n) on May 21, 2026, 07:50 AM"When we see the opportunities there, then that would be evaluated against all the other options, but it's always on the agenda."

They need to get on with the job.  There is no money in paying top dollar for commercial property that only yields 5% (when fully leased, which assumes they will fully lease it at expected lease rates), when they could be buying their own shares back at a 35% discount to NTA.

Quote from: winner (n) on May 21, 2026, 07:50 AMIn the media. -

Buyback possible?

Asked on the conference call whether a share buyback was on the cards, given the discount its shares traded at relative to net tangible assets, chief financial officer Dave Fraser replied that it was possible.

"Certainly, if developments get stalled and we do sell these assets and we have a lazy balance sheet, then we would definitely look at a buyback as an option," Fraser told the call.

CEO Mence added: "The first cab off the rank, of course ... is turning the DRP off, which is effectively raising equity at a discount at the moment. So, tick that one off.

"When we see the opportunities there, then that would be evaluated against all the other options, but it's always on the agenda."

Does make you wonder if I had any influence there given I think I was the first to bring up buybacks on the ARG thread.

Quote from: Basil on May 21, 2026, 08:30 AMThey need to get on with the job.  There is no money in paying top dollar for commercial property that only yields 5% (when fully leased, which assumes they will fully lease it at expected lease rates),

Could be vorse.  Like IPL putting their lease positive Blenheim and Nelson based Voolvorths zupermarkets on ze block, to vund a new zupermarket een Kaiapoi, - a new leaseback deal zigned on terms - making a long term loss!  On paper not a loss, as ze vunding is from IPL020 (2.40%) and IPL030 (4.00%) bonds vhich do not mature unteel 2027 years away! (in reality 'year away').

But vorse, ze new zupermarket partly cannibalizes ze market of ze existing Voolvorths een Kaiapoi.  Zo net turnover eez ztalled there, reducing ze revenue leenked turnover part of ze rent escalation clause on zhat zupermarket building too!  Talk about pulling ze vool over ze unitholder zheeples eyes......

But of course plenty in ze kitty to pay ze parent Stride property managers, managing ze properties on an 'pay per NTA" basis.  And multi property tenant Voolvorths kept very happy.

RB