https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402350
Great result for this this company after a few meagre years
Suddenly, SAN has caught the eye of investors. May be contrarians who want to take positions in neglected stocks.
Destiny for sanfords is ngai tahu slowly but surely .
FY results came out last week - and nobody talking about them :)?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SAN/421580/407087.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SAN/421580/407088.pdf
Anyway - they boast about best revenue numbers in 5 years. What they don't mention is that the earnings have been the lowest in over a decade, but hey ... at least the forward looking noises appear to soften. Headwinds easing and hope for green shoots all over the place.
This used to be a good company, but then they made mistake after mistake. Buying too dear and unsuitable ships, their captains ignoring even basic fishing rules and similar stupid stuff. No doubt the Covid headwinds are coming down, but fixing a damaged company culture is a tough job.
Do we think they are there yet?
but fixing a damaged company culture is a tough job.
Do we think they are there yet?
Sounds like Ngai Tahu are having a go, but whether that is for the benefit of all shareholders or just Ngai Tahu, time will tell.
Quote from: Apollo on Nov 20, 2023, 11:43 AMSounds like Ngai Tahu are having a go, but whether that is for the benefit of all shareholders or just Ngai Tahu, time will tell.
I wonder about the sudden resignation of Director Abby Foote and if that has anything to do with the CEO and/or Ngai Tahu. I don't know enough about Abby Foote but this looks like a red flag.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421328
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 20, 2023, 12:41 PMI wonder about the sudden resignation of Director Abby Foote and if that has anything to do with the CEO and/or Ngai Tahu. I don't know enough about Abby Foote but this looks like a red flag.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421328
Fair enough. I don't know more about her Sanford involvement either, but must admit that the announcement does not sound like the board would miss her heaps.
From memory - her expertise is in general (not nautic :) ) law, accounting, retail and public holdings. Her LinkedIn profile emphasizes as well her expertise in ESG and "well being" governance. Not quite the areas where Sanford used to have its big problems, and not sure, whether she was an ideal fit for the board of a fishing company anyway. Might have been some cultural issues? Square peg and round hole ...?
Thanks for looking into the LinkedIn profile. I don't do (any other) social media. It may be less of a red flag than I initially thought based on your observations...it's hard to know without knowing more about the person.
Regarding your earlier post:
Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 20, 2023, 11:20 AMFY results came out last week - and nobody talking about them :)?
I suppose if one doesn't have anything nice to say....then don't say anything at all?? But yeah, not a good result. As per usual
'next year will be better'. I'm sick of hearing that.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 20, 2023, 11:20 AMDo we think they are there yet?
A fair question which I have also asked of others. I'm no TA but I get the sense the SP has been bouncing off some sort of support line for the last 2-3 months. It didn't react too badly to the latest result so barring any more catastrophes.....
Do you have an opinion on that?
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 20, 2023, 02:29 PMDo you have an opinion on that?
Mmh - I guess it is one of the companies on my (pretty long) watchlist. I used to hold them at some stage, but this is a long time ago.
Having said that - yes, I do see the sort of support line as well, though - it used to be around 3.90 and then it dropped to 3.75. Is this still a support line - or just the lower boundary of the downtrend channel? Not really enough liquidity to say where it will go from here.
I am pretty sure that we will move overall into some sort of bull over the next couple of quarters (which will be good for San as well), and I think that the industry as a whole will do well. The world does need healthy proteins, and the headwinds for the sector are clearly coming down. That's the good stuff.
On the flipside - they had over the last handful of years a lot of company specific bad stuff happening which was for industry outsiders (like me) hard or impossible to anticipate. Naive me assumed they understand what kind of ships they need to do their job and I also thought they know the rules governing their business. I was wrong on both accounts. They made some changes, but I have not really an opinion on whether these changes have been enough to stop the rot. Its one of these things - I am reluctant to invest into a business I don't fully understand, and where the management has not really (yet) a successful track record. Time will tell. I suppose iceman on the other channel might have a more qualified view on that bit.
Ah yes, and then there is climate change. No idea what this will mean for San. At least do they have their Salmon in cooler waters than the competition NZK, which is good.
At this stage I promoted them to my "look closer" watchlist, but this is not a buy recommendation - just a sign of increased curiosity.
Actually, just have seen a to this discussion quite relevant (but paywalled) article in the business desk:
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/ngai-tahu-targeting-sanfords-board?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=26e9cada3e-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-26e9cada3e-402467359
They do talk about discomfort on the board about Nagi Tahu influences which could be seen as undue.
From different sources - it sounds like the NZSA is worried as well.
I would add this to the flipsides of an investment case.
Thanks for the replies BP. Volumes are wafer thin so understood re TA. A number of operating KPIs are heading in the right direction (except for NPAT) but as you and other have touched on there are a couple of macro items that need addressing:
1) you mentioned the perennial 'bad luck'...is that bad luck or bad management? I suspect the latter given bad managers create bad luck. But we should give the interim CEO (and possibly his replacement if there is to be one) some time to make a meaningful impact before passing judgement. But how long does one wait is the question...
2) the turnover of senior personnel is a concern; being 3 Directors (first was Mr Cairns (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407452) in Feb) & the CEO. Obviously there are some sort of ructions taking place but as to whether or not the resulting changes are good or bad remain to be seen. It could be the old team needed a kick up the backside......but I'm speculating. SAN will need to appoint more Directors given the 2 remaining independent Directors have other commitments that will make demands on their time and attention.
3) One hopes Mr Ellison as Director and Interim CEO is acting in the best interests of all shareholders and not just Ngai Tahu. So long as the remaining independent Directors perform their duties and NZSA is casting a watchful eye....one hopes this is under control. And hopefully we don't end up with a Board captured by the single largest shareholder with new appointments.
4) Historically Masfen Securities (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/388759) have made some good investments....although MPG leaves a lot to be desired. Their 7.55% is not enough to be a blocking stake in a compulsory acquisition scenario - that would require the support of another major shareholder or 2.
I get the sense changes are afoot or possibly some sort of brinksmanship is taking place....but alas we will be nothing more than observers to whatever happens with zero influence over the outcome.
Interesting times.
Sanford's & there besties should be able to ramp up production soon with new aquaculture .
Thanks to the new govt amendment of the resource management act 1991 could be a game changer me thinks
Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 20, 2023, 06:09 PMActually, just have seen a to this discussion quite relevant (but paywalled) article in the business desk:
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/ngai-tahu-targeting-sanfords-board?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=26e9cada3e-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-26e9cada3e-402467359
They do talk about discomfort on the board about Nagi Tahu influences which could be seen as undue.
From different sources - it sounds like the NZSA is worried as well.
I would add this to the flipsides of an investment case.
Jenny Ruth chipping in as well in her latest article. Not a pleasant reading for shareholders who prefer above board dealings at the board table. It sounds like Ngai Tahu might try to exercise more influence around the board table than what their 20% holding might justify ...
https://justthebusinessjennyruth.substack.com/p/no-end-in-sight-to-sanford-board
Always on the cards this ,nagi tahu were never getting into Sanford's for a minor holding .
It will be Interesting to see how it plays out game of thrones eh.
I did read jennys article but nothing really new there in my opinion, a pleasant read nonetheless.
Did Jenny steal the work "ructions" from my earlier post?! :)
Me:
QuoteObviously there are some sort of ructions taking place...
Jenny
QuoteNo end in sight to Sanford board, shareholder ructions
Ructions (https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/ructions) is a very appropriate word.
After reading Jenny's article, it is interesting that we *assume* there is some sort of issue with Ngai Tahu, probably due to the fact they are the largest shareholder and the presence of Mr Ellison. However, Jenny's article states he is no longer an inside man for Ngai Tahu and that some wealthy families have apparently been working together behind the scenes. So maybe we are looking at this backwards and whatever issue there is sits elsewhere...? Occam's razor suggests the issue will be one of underperformance (of NPAT and the SP) so my guess is the ructions centre around how to turn this 'ship' around so that capital losses are avoided.....but I'm guessing.
And oldie but a goodie: never underestimate the other guys greed. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zWWuCTnjkk)
Such an unloved thread
Price today back to $6.00.
Coms from inside company suggesting a record divi this year, just heard a whisper of this on Tuesday & reflected recent share price movements. 1 month to go till the final result announcement.
Rising diesel prices migh hit the seafood sector. No sector in New Zealand burns through more diesel per dollar of output than fishing.
https://b2bnews.co.nz/news/nz-fishing-fleets-26-percent-diesel-cost-exposure-risks-wipeout/
Fishing fleets are one fuel spike away from being unviable
"Diesel accounts for 26 percent of non-wage operating costs in the sector, a figure that dwarfs road transport at 19-26 percent, primary sector support services at 11 percent, and horticulture at 5.5 percent. Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan put fishing "top of the list" for vulnerability, noting it spends roughly a quarter of its input costs on oil-based fuels."