StockTalk

Hi All,
New to this forum (aren't we all), and relatively newish to Shares.
Curious to know what peoples approach is to shares at the moment.
I'm doing minimal investing, mainly in shares I already liked that have taken a hit recently (hopefully making the better value in the long term). I'm primarily focussed on Divs assuming all else is good.

Likewise  :)

Must be me ... but not quite sure how to read your question.

Maybe you should explain what you want to get out of this survey ... does not make a lot of sense without more context.

You missed an obvious voting option:

- Investing more than normal

My view 25% of a chance of further falls 75% chance of rising price, so have entered a slow accumulation phase.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 27, 2022, 10:59 AMMust be me ... but not quite sure how to read your question.

Maybe you should explain what you want to get out of this survey ... does not make a lot of sense without more context.

Hi,
Sorry, I am just interested to know what people are doing - get a feel of the general mood.
I probably should have added "investing more than normal" and "converting to cash in the short term".
I have money both in shares and Squirrel, currently evenly balanced.
The idea for me being to get a decent return from Squirrel, and the Div based shares.
Resisting the temptation to gamble on picking the bottom, especially as a newbie, but the temptation is certainly there !

Quote from: SmallSteps on Jun 27, 2022, 03:55 PM

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 27, 2022, 10:59 AMMust be me ... but not quite sure how to read your question.

Maybe you should explain what you want to get out of this survey ... does not make a lot of sense without more context.

Hi,
Sorry, I am just interested to know what people are doing - get a feel of the general mood.
I probably should have added "investing more than normal" and "converting to cash in the short term".
I have money both in shares and Squirrel, currently evenly balanced.
The idea for me being to get a decent return from Squirrel, and the Div based shares.
Resisting the temptation to gamble on picking the bottom, especially as a newbie, but the temptation is certainly there !

Fair enough.

Hint ... if you want to know what the general mood is - no better way than watch the markets. If they go down this means more selling interest thatn buying interest and if they go up vice versa.

I am sure though, you knew that.

If you want to know what individuals are doing ... Well, I am still rather fully invested, however hold a bit more cash than normal ...

Otherwise - focus on quality stocks (i.e. companies producing stuff or providing services people need), not holding companies which with lots of luck might at some stage make money.

Sold out recently my gold mines which might be a good decision if we are close to the bottom but a not so good decision if WW3 turns thermonuclear. Time and Putin will tell.

Does this help?

I'm into my 70s now and think it's about time I switched more of my investments into bonds, ETF bond funds and high yielding shares such as Genesis and Woodside along with some US and UK high yielders i.e baccy - Altria and BAT.
I'm not sure what the sort of split should be these days? It used to be 70% bonds and 30% shares for someone my age but I'm thinking 25% 'cash', 30% high yield shares and 45% bonds? 

Quote from: kiwi2007 on Jun 28, 2022, 10:24 PMI'm into my 70s now and think it's about time I switched more of my investments into bonds, ETF bond funds and high yielding shares such as Genesis and Woodside along with some US and UK high yielders i.e baccy - Altria and BAT.
I'm not sure what the sort of split should be these days? It used to be 70% bonds and 30% shares for someone my age but I'm thinking 25% 'cash', 30% high yield shares and 45% bonds?

I don't think that your age is the only or even most relevant thing you should consider ... and there is clearly not a magic percentage how to balance your portfolio.

Example 1:

Assume you need $50k from your nestegg per year and have $10m. No point in putting 70% of your nestegg into cash and bonds. Put as much in safe investments as you might need over the coming years ... and keep the rest invested as before.

Example 2:

Your nestegg is $100k and you know that you likely will need all your money over the next couple of years (a big spend you know about, or maybe a rainy day fund for this unplanned but essential surgery). In this case not a good idea to put even 30% of your money into risky growth assets. Put all 100% into the bank!

You need to look at your personal circumstances, your overall wealth, your overall requirements to decide how much of your money you want to keep in cash. Your age is just one factor, and rarely not the most important one. No sensible rule of thumb around.

The other thing is - why do you think that any overseas investments will be safe (US and UK high yielders)? Are you sure you will be able to control any future geo political events as well as the exchange rates? Good luck with that. I consider anything overseas as "high risk" (but yes, sometimes as well high return).

If you are unsure - talk with a financial advisor you can trust .... it might be the best investment you can make.

Can we master the following?

• How to keep future mutibagger winners?
• How to avoid future losers?
• How to sleep peacefully by having a quality portfolio?

As investments have risks, better to invest in businesses that we can understand.

At the end of January when my spreadsheets were showing lots of red which I had been ignoring for too long, I decided to sell down and sit on cash for a while.

I hold 20 NZX stocks including ETFs' and a small amount of international investments.

Over the years I have been re-investing divs & taking up all the warrants with KFL & BRM.

These have grown to 20% of my holdings so it was time to sell some of these.

I sold KFL & BRM leaving me with 1/3 of these shares left & a nice pile of cash to re-invest in the future & was also able to pay some bills as well.

Well it only took me a month knowing this cash was lonely not increasing in size so time to re-invest.

From the end of February till the end of March I bought into dividend yielding companies' 
TRA – GNE – WHS and set up a weekly account to DCA into USF

I still have over 16,500 KFL Warrants which I think are toast!

Quote from: THESTG on Jul 09, 2022, 02:19 PMAt the end of January when my spreadsheets were showing lots of red which I had been ignoring for too long, I decided to sell down and sit on cash for a while.

I hold 20 NZX stocks including EFTs' and a small amount of international investments.

Over the years I have been re-investing divs & taking up all the warrants with KFL & BRM.

These have grown to 20% of my holdings so it was time to sell some of these.

I sold KFL & BRM leaving me with 1/3 of these shares left & a nice pile of cash to re-invest in the future & was also able to pay some bills as well.

Well it only took me a month knowing this cash was lonely not increasing in size so time to re-invest.

From the end of February till the end of March I bought into dividend yielding companies' 
TRA – GNE – WHS and set up a weekly account to DCA into USF

I still have over 16,500 KFL Warrants which I think are toast!

I have some KFL Warrants coming up in November - I suspect they are going to be worthless (sad, as my first ever Warrants !).
I've also got TRA / GNE / WHS for the Divs and hopefully a bit of recovery / growth over the next while (long maybe).
I only sell if I've changed my mind, or direction, so mainly just holding.

I'm about 70 percent invested at this stage. Have a well diversified portfolio of 25 NZX stocks some Australian and US shares.  Also have a global exposure through my investment in Pie funds.

I'm a long term investor with plenty of time left on this earth (I hope).  Dividends are good but am looking more at capital appreciation over time. 

I can't stress enough that a well diversified portfolio is the key to protecting one's capital.

In the last 2 months have added to my Apple holding and purchased new positions in Google and Amazon. Plus recently Pay Pal.  In NZ have taken a large position in Genesis and have added To my Oca,Rym,Sum. Have also just added some more PPH.

Have only 1 new NZX share on my new position watchlist, other than that will add to existing positions if opportunity's arise.

Recently some NZX shares such as ATM, FPH, GNE, RAK, SKL, STU have climbed up over the 30 day MA.

My NZX portfolio also up about 7% in the last 2 weeks.

Is it just a dead cat bounce? Interesting times.

That's the $64,000 question.
For mine, the leading indicators do not look encouraging.
Consumer confidence both here and overseas at multi decade lows.
Business confidence survey out this week showing widespread pessimism, worst since the height of the first wave of Covid in March 2020.
Half of all those with fixed mortgage rates fixed in previous years with once in several generation low rates are facing a radical repricing of their mortgage payments in 2022.  On the other hand the market generally is forward looking and recovers before the economy does.

According to reports from several sources I have recently read the average bear market lasts a little over a year and the market loses about 31%.  I think this one is gong to be worse than average because of egregiously excessive monetary policy stimulus causing one in 100 year lows to interest rates and arguably grossly excessive asset prices.

Bear market rally's in the order of what we have recently seen are a common occurrence in a Bear market.  This one might have a little more life in it but probably not a lot is how I see it. Covid numbers starting to really ramp up is a sobering reminder of where we are really at in this pandemic.
I remain very cautious and extremely defensive with portfolio allocations.  I hope I am wrong but my sense is we are only, at best, half way through this mess.

So based on Basils post of average beer market decline of 31 percent.  The NZX benchmark index is down 18 percent for the first 6 months till end of June 2022 (According to BD). If Basils projections come tru we have indeed a long way to go.

At the end of the day none of us know for sure what's going to happen.  I agree caution is indeed warranted, especially for investors with a short term perspective.

From WSJ

You Can't Predict When Bear Markets End. So Don't Try.
Investors are better off controlling what they can control
JASON ZWEIG · Jul 9, 2022


Part of what makes bear markets so unbearable is that nobody—and I mean nobody—knows when or how they will end.
That doesn't stop everyone on Wall Street from flogging measures, hunches and folklore purporting to foretell when stocks will finally stop falling.
However, intelligent investors don't bother trying to predict the unpredictable; they focus on controlling the controllable. That's the psychological key to surviving this—and any—bear market, no matter how long it lasts.
To see clearly why it's so important to get your priorities straight, let's look quickly at three beliefs about when bear markets end.
Ask any market veteran when stocks will start to recover, and you're likely to hear something like this: Bear markets don't end until individual investors throw in the towel, fear hits new heights or stocks finally get cheap again.
Taking each in turn, here's why they're myths.
Retail investors have to capitulate. Financial professionals love to argue that bear markets hit bottom when individual investors give up on stocks in a crescendo or "capitulation" of panic selling.
Only trouble is, that isn't what happened in 1932, 1974, 1982 or 2002, among many examples. Bear markets sometimes end in a selling frenzy, but they often end in an indifferent stupor.
Fear has to spike. Many professionals contend that the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is "too low" right now, says Nicholas Colas, cofounder of DataTrek Research, an investment newsletter in New York.
The VIX, commonly called Wall Street's "fear gauge," spiked to then-record highs in October 2008, during the global financial crisis— but stocks still fell more than 19% before the bear market finally ended in March 2009.
"When markets are trying to reprice their expectations of the future, they only nibble away at that truth," says Mr. Colas. No single indicator like the VIX can capture the moment when those expectations are about to shift.
Stocks have to get a lot cheaper. Many investors believe bear markets end only after formerly overvalued stocks finally become bargains again.
It just isn't so.
In March 2009, in the pit of the global financial crisis, stocks traded at more than 13 times their longer-term earnings, adjusted for inflation, according to data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. That was only about 20% cheaper than the average all the way back to 1881.
Although stocks didn't seem like a statistical bargain at the time, they went on to gain roughly 15% annually over the next decade.
All this shows the folly of trying to figure out when stocks have hit bottom.

Unwilling/unable to sell current holdings and no other cash on hand. Sold down 50 percent 8 to 10 months ago but used that up

Quote from: Shareguy on Jul 10, 2022, 03:02 PMSo based on Basils post of average beer market decline of 31 percent.  The NZX benchmark index is down 18 percent for the first 6 months till end of June 2022 (According to BD). If Basils projections come tru we have indeed a long way to go.

At the end of the day none of us know for sure what's going to happen.  I agree caution is indeed warranted, especially for investors with a short term perspective.

Problem is after last weeks Bear market rally which took the index up 3.9% we're "only" down about 14% year to date, (I acknowledge for many it will feel worse than that), so even if this is only an average Bear market (down 31%) we're not half way there and if its a lot worse than average, say 42%, we're only one third way there, which is a pretty disconcerting thought.

Implications are very different for say someone in their 60's or 70's who has done well over the years, (it may be best to stay highly defensive and protect your capital base), compared to someone say in their 20's or 30's who might want to keep dollar cost averaging into this market.

Interesting discussion folks.

Another confusing factor is that we often measure bottoms/tops/ bear/bullmarkets based on indexes such as S&P, NZX, VIX etc.

I note the VIX is currently around 24.5 so actually down 37% on its 12 month high of 38.94 possibly indicating 'oversold.'

Re Basil's above comment that based on the NZX "we are one third (down)" to an average bear market decline of 31%. Not quite accurate IMO. NZX last high was September 2021 at around 13259. The recent low of 10589 around 13 June is some 21% down on the high. Maybe a 10% decline yet to come??

On top of the above, individual stocks can show quite different signals from the indexes by either out performing or underperforming the indexes and I tend to base my investing decisions primarily on individual stock signals. I use the indexes for overview comparison points only.

That said, while it is encouraging that some individual shares inching above their 30day MA, they have yet to reach 'golden cross' territory. So still time for caution...

 

I buy shares in businesses.
Should they perform as I expect, I either hold onto them [buy more] or sell on results.
At present time I am waiting for August result season.
I am expecting a lot of solid results with increased divies.

Quote from: lorraina on Jul 11, 2022, 01:51 PMI buy shares in businesses.
Should they perform as I expect, I either hold onto them [buy more] or sell on results.
At present time I am waiting for August result season.
I am expecting a lot of solid results with increased divies.

Well said.

Reminds me of something that wise poster Percy once said; (you may be familiar with him/her Lorraina?)
To paraphrase;
"Buying/selling share in between market updates is......speculation.
Buying/selling shares based on market updates is........investment."

Wise words.?
Sounds familiar....
Pleased you have a better memory than me...lol

Best day on Wall Street for 3 weeks as earnings season excitement approaches.

USA at 200722.jpg


Encouraging. (however re picture/table inclusion rigmarole on this site... it ain't easy.... just saying)

At last! My portfolio feeling the love recently..... up 13% in the last 2 weeks. Nice feeling but will it hold?

Everyone watching USA earnings season for a guide.

This from Reuters....

Meta and Alphabet are set to post their earnings next week, along with mega-cap peers, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O).

With 106 of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings through Friday morning, 75.5% have topped analyst expectations.

Encouraging.

Hopefully encouraging.  Not holding my breath though !
My portfolio *almost* back to where it was at the start of this drop.

Wall Street back on track, heading to the first positive month in ages.

Has the market bottomed?

Time will tell.

The book JUST KEEP BUYING still selling like hot cakes

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 28, 2022, 08:15 AMWall Street back on track, heading to the first positive month in ages.
Has the market bottomed?
Time will tell.

An argument could be made that the US market got what it wanted from the Fed. Powell did not push back on market projections for interest rates looking out 6-12 months. Not exactly a pivot, but not as harsh as he has been in the last couple of months.

Quote from: Cod on Jul 28, 2022, 09:37 AMAn argument could be made that the US market got what it wanted from the Fed. Powell did not push back on market projections for interest rates looking out 6-12 months. Not exactly a pivot, but not as harsh as he has been in the last couple of months.

Also helping was the Fed's prediction that a 'soft landing' was more likely than the 'R' word.

I hope they are right!

Nice bounce on the US markets today but I remain cautious.
Average Bear market is 15 months and 31%.  Long way to go before we can say we are out of the woods.
A lot of drivers, (high inflation, massive money printing and stimulus) to name just 2 that suggest this Bear market could be worse than average.
High quality bonds around 5.5% look attractive to me at this point in time.

Nice bounce in my NZX portfolio (over 10%) for the month of July. Roll on August results.

NZX up to a 3 month high

The New Zealand sharemarket ended the last week of July with a 1.4% surge to a nearly three-month high.

The benchmark S&P/NZX50 index closed up 164 points at 11,492 following a 1.7% jump on Thursday.

"I think the local markets are on the pace of a strong rebound following the US markets' rally that was boosted by the Fed's less aggressive rhetoric," said Tina Teng, CMC Markets analyst.

USA looking good for the first time in many months (see chart below.)

(That said; ..... much depends on Ukraine, Taiwan and China... )

USA 3007222.jpgUSA 3007222.jpg 

Be still my beating heart. Crikey in the last week two companies I hold have been in Trading Halts.

These halts have once again shown me the wisdom of buying your shares in small instalments, ( i.e. not all at once....ie I'm not a fan of backing up the truck....when a small trailer is safer) and constantly working to get your Dollar Cost Average (DCA)  as low as possible.

Two more reflections;

1.) There is an old adage that you shouldn't buy in a down trend. My thinking is different, if you are confident in the long term strength of your company, then buying in what you perceive as 'unrealistic  or emotional down turn'  in order to lower your DCA, can be a smart move. PEB at 40c was arguably such a time.

2.) Sometimes FA gets it wrong. In recent 'down' times we have seen FA guru's say that based on PE multiples ATM's SP was only worth $2 to $3 and FPH's SP worth as low as $15.00 . Perhaps if WW 3 breaks out they might be right, but if such scares recede, then I think their figures have been way too conservative given the long term potential of such companies . FPH around $20 was arguably a  v good opportunity.

Constantly working to improve your portfolio's DCA's makes sense and 'market 'scares'  can provide opportunities for the long term believers.

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 03, 2022, 10:03 AM1.) There is an old adage that you shouldn't buy in a down trend. My thinking is different, if you are confident in the long term strength of your company, then buying in what you perceive as 'unrealistic  or emotional down turn'  in order to lower your DCA, can be a smart move. PEB at 40c was arguably such a time.

The problem with buying in a downtrend is it is often very easy to do. IMO it is very easy to buy a stock at a cheaper price than you first did because it is both "a better deal" and reduces your average price (reducing the feeling of having made a mistake).
The other problem is if you buy something and it starts going down it suggests that the fair value that you perceive is higher than that of other market participants. That may suggest that they have information that you don't or vice versa, or that one of you is simply wrong. I think if you intend to average down you should re-evaluate your investment case, there might be new information available or some you might have missed previously. There is always a reason for the tide changing and it is not always the moon.

Quote from: Plata on Aug 03, 2022, 11:09 AMThe problem with buying in a downtrend is it is often very easy to do. IMO it is very easy to buy a stock at a cheaper price than you first did because it is both "a better deal" and reduces your average price (reducing the feeling of having made a mistake).
The other problem is if you buy something and it starts going down it suggests that the fair value that you perceive is higher than that of other market participants. That may suggest that they have information that you don't or vice versa, or that one of you is simply wrong. I think if you intend to average down you should re-evaluate your investment case, there might be new information available or some you might have missed previously. There is always a reason for the tide changing and it is not always the moon.

There is always a reason the tide is changing and its mostly an irrational and fickle market in the majority of cases, trust the market about as much as you would a bull in a China shop more than 50% of the time.

I have found over 40 years of investing that where you make really serious money is where you really believe in the investment case, e.g. their business model, the management and the metrics (fundamental analysis) and technical analysis also supports your fundamental analysis.

Yes the market is to a large extent driven by fear, greed and sentiment so it can appear irrational at times but in the long run its a weighing machine not a voting machine and earnings really do matter. 
Disc: I am starting to gradually move out of some of the very high cash allocation (70%) I have hoarded since Nov 2021 into high conviction positions which are supported by emerging signs of TA.

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 03, 2022, 10:03 AM1.) There is an old adage that you shouldn't buy in a down trend. My thinking is different, if you are confident in the long term strength of your company, then buying in what you perceive as 'unrealistic  or emotional down turn'  in order to lower your DCA, can be a smart move. PEB at 40c was arguably such a time.

No guesses as to what I think about that  ;D

I started selling back in Jan-Feb and have mostly avoided the huge share market meltdown (should have been 100% avoided, but hey, we are all human lol).

I have started buying the last few weeks as the TA trend turns, in particular the healthcare/biotech sector seems to have based and is now bolting out of the blocks, so that's mainly what I'm buying.  Still to see a period of consolidation for tech stocks in general, but I think they will be next up, but I'm not in a hurry to buy them. 

Quote from: KW on Aug 03, 2022, 02:39 PMNo guesses as to what I think about that  ;D

I started selling back in Jan-Feb and have mostly avoided the huge share market meltdown (should have been 100% avoided, but hey, we are all human lol)....

Good to see you are human too......90% of the time I agree with you...... but If I divert from the 'trend' and buy in the 'dips' .... then I'm bloody careful.  ;)

In the current situation, anchoring to prior prices is a mistake.  Covid prices were simply insane and unconnected to any fundamental valuation principle.  Therefore, buying as they fall may not pay off as companies may take years (if ever) to get back to those prices.  I dont think A2 will ever be $20 again for instance.  And former high fliers like Appen (APX.ASX) have lost 90% of their valuation and still future earnings visibility is unclear.  Some companies just go through natural deaths as they are replaced by more innovative and nimble competitors (which I think Facebook is going through). 

Predicting the future is hard, its much easier to assess current conditions and buy the things that are going up right now.   

Quote from: KW on Aug 03, 2022, 03:20 PMIn the current situation, anchoring to prior prices is a mistake.  Covid prices were simply insane and unconnected to any fundamental valuation principle.  Therefore, buying as they fall may not pay off as companies may take years (if ever) to get back to those prices.  I dont think A2 will ever be $20 again for instance.  And former high fliers like Appen (APX.ASX) have lost 90% of their valuation and still future earnings visibility is unclear.  Some companies just go through natural deaths as they are replaced by more innovative and nimble competitors (which I think Facebook is going through). 

Predicting the future is hard, its much easier to assess current conditions and buy the things that are going up right now.   

No A2 won't see $20 again but FPH will see $37 again and then some.  ;D

Is it really a matter what price for a certain stock will be in a few years time when you are a trader?

Quote from: KW on Aug 03, 2022, 03:20 PMIn the current situation, anchoring to prior prices is a mistake.  Covid prices were simply insane and unconnected to any fundamental valuation principle.  Therefore, buying as they fall may not pay off as companies may take years (if ever) to get back to those prices.  I dont think A2 will ever be $20 again for instance.  And former high fliers like Appen (APX.ASX) have lost 90% of their valuation and still future earnings visibility is unclear.  Some companies just go through natural deaths as they are replaced by more innovative and nimble competitors (which I think Facebook is going through). 

Predicting the future is hard, its much easier to assess current conditions and buy the things that are going up right now.   

Bingo !!

Quote from: Basil on Aug 03, 2022, 12:12 PM.....Disc: I am starting to gradually move out of some of the very high cash allocation (70%) I have hoarded since Nov 2021 into high conviction positions which are supported by emerging signs of TA.

Quote from: KW on Aug 03, 2022, 02:39 PM.... I have started buying the last few weeks as the TA trend turns, in particular the healthcare/biotech sector seems to have based and is now bolting out of the blocks, so that's mainly what I'm buying.  Still to see a period of consolidation for tech stocks in general, but I think they will be next up, but I'm not in a hurry to buy them. 

Crikey, nice to see I'm not the only one getting slightly optimistic at the moment.

Quote from: Left Field on Aug 04, 2022, 08:50 AMCrikey, nice to see I'm not the only one getting slightly optimistic at the moment.

Cautious optimism is my phrase of the day  8)   When you've been round the block a few times, it all starts to look a bit familiar LOL

I would like to say thanks to Cathie Wood and her ARKK fund.  Its been the best market barometer I have found. I've been watching the stocks within it slowly cruise through their 50 and 200 day MAs.  As more of them did it, I got more optimistic and bought more stocks.  It pays to remember that an index, particularly one that is market cap weighted, is a lagging indicator.  One has to watch what the duck is doing under the water, not above it, to figure out if its going to go anywhere.  High growth stocks like biotech started falling in Feb 2021, so they have been in a long 19 month bear market, and the capital destruction of individual stocks has been 80-90% in many instances.  The Nasdaq is useless now because all it really tracks are Meta/Alphabet/Microsoft/Apple/Amazon/Tesla. By the time it turns, most of the good gains in the smaller stocks will already be done.

Bottoming is a process, not an event.

Quote from: KW on Aug 04, 2022, 10:00 AMCautious optimism is my phrase of the day  8)   When you've been round the block a few times, it all starts to look a bit familiar LOL

I would like to say thanks to Cathie Wood and her ARKK fund.  Its been the best market barometer I have found. I've been watching the stocks within it slowly cruise through their 50 and 200 day MAs.  As more of them did it, I got more optimistic and bought more stocks.  It pays to remember that an index, particularly one that is market cap weighted, is a lagging indicator.  One has to watch what the duck is doing under the water, not above it, to figure out if its going to go anywhere.  High growth stocks like biotech started falling in Feb 2021, so they have been in a long 19 month bear market, and the capital destruction of individual stocks has been 80-90% in many instances.  The Nasdaq is useless now because all it really tracks are Meta/Alphabet/Microsoft/Apple/Amazon/Tesla. By the time it turns, most of the good gains in the smaller stocks will already be done.

Great post but I don't think we are out of the woods yet, (you see what I did there), with some of the no earnings tech stocks in her AARK fund.  In any event those sort of stocks are not the pond this old mutt likes to swim in.  I don't think I am there yet with the "cautious optimism"...I'm more like a dip a couple of claws of one of my paws in the water and see if one of them gets bitten off.

Quote from: Basil on Aug 04, 2022, 10:36 AMGreat post but I don't think we are out of the woods yet, (you see what I did there), with some of the no earnings tech stocks in her AARK fund.  In any event those sort of stocks are not the pond this old mutt likes to swim in.  I don't think I am there yet with the "cautious optimism"...I'm more like a dip a couple of claws of one of my paws in the water and see if one of them gets bitten off.

Not talking about buying ARKK stocks, I am talking about tracking market sentiment towards growth stocks of which the ARKK stocks are nicely representative, so you can tell when the smart money starts flowing into stocks again, and what type of stocks.  The big leaders in the ARKK resurrection are the biotechs, so that's what I'm buying on the ASX.  TLX, PNV, NEU.  Although I did pick up one ARKK stock - CRSP as its a beautiful chart :-)

I feel the market turned last month so have been deploying surplus cash. Now at 90 percent fully invested. Mainly into US stocks Apple,Alphabet,Amazon and PayPal. All are well up especially PayPal which seemed very cheap at the time and wish I had got more. In NZ have added more Ryman,Fph,Sum,Mft and Pph.

10 percent of my portfolio is "punts" which are very high risk . So doubled down on Pacific Edge.

An insert from Pie funds newsletter today

Last month I wrote how July has produced positive returns for the Nasdaq every year for the last 14 years. Well July 2022 didn't disappoint, making it 15 from 15, which is quite remarkable. What's perhaps not so remarkable
is that the market staged a significant comeback after smashing negative record after record in the first half of the year. Why is this not surprising? Because the level of pessimism was reaching extreme levels in late June/early July, and even bear markets can have quite big rallies.
Was that the bottom?
The question that's on every investor's mind after a move like July is, 'Was that the bottom?'. To answer that question I've looked at 10-year bond yields, inflation, Fed guidance, investor sentiment, liquidity and recession predictors. Here are my findings.
1. Bond yields. Look to have peaked mid-June. Positive.
2. Inflation. Also looks to have peaked mid-June. Positive.
3. Fed guidance is "meeting by meeting" so the market is forecasting a peak another 75bps higher, then a hold. Improving.
4. Investor sentiment. Hit extreme bearish in July. Positive.
5. Recession predictors. Getting close to contrarian pivot. Positive.
6. Liquidity. The Fed is removing liquidity. Negative.
Based on the above, there is a chance that July could be the low. However, we are happy to hold cash at current levels given we have just had a strong rally, and we need some more data points to plot a trend. Despite this,
I suspect many may ask, why we didn't move to fully invested in July? Without stating the obvious, we cannot predict the future. Markets have been treacherous this year so the prudent thing is to be cautious. It's not the time to be a hero. Since the early part of 2022, we have raised cash, reduced risk, and moved to more defensive growth names.
What is remarkable, and proves my point, is just because we are positioned defensively doesn't mean we can't perform. The returns for July were achieved with cash
at around 20-25% and a market short on, in some cases bringing the net position to only 70% invested. When I was managing the Growth 1 Fund (now our Australasian Growth Fund) for nine years, the average cash weighting was over 30% during that time period and yet the fund returned around 20% p.a. after fees.

On the "not the low" side of the argument is
7.  We have not seen the latter stage of a bear market, that of "despair".  This is usually the "I'm never buying stocks again" stage.
8.  Its the nature of the market to suck in as many suckers as possible before positively reaming them a new one, which is why they are called "Sucker Rallies"
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sucker-rally.asp#:~:text=Sucker%20rally%20is%20a%20slang,the%20price%20heads%20lower%20again.

Best strategy to follow is to buy stocks that have strong momentum and then put tight stops on them to protect profits.  Cut losses quickly on non-performers.  Live to fight another day.

agreed, I'm waiting for #7

Looks like inflation peaked in US. Dow up. I'm picking onwards and upwards.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 11, 2022, 07:19 AMLooks like inflation peaked in US. Dow up. I'm picking onwards and upwards.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

Hope you're right.  There's plenty of value in our market.

So only an 8.5% rise    :o

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 11, 2022, 07:19 AMLooks like inflation peaked in US. Dow up...

or...did they re-define inflation? *chuckles to himself*

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 11, 2022, 07:19 AMLooks like inflation peaked in US. Dow up. I'm picking onwards and upwards.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

Peak doesnt really matter.  It just means we probably won't end up like Venezuela or Turkey (which I suppose is a good thing though).  What matters is what level does inflation settle at?  Entrenched inflation of 5% for years is worse than a rise to 9% and then a drop back to 2%.  At 5% inflation we are all still in negative real interest rate environments, which is stimulatory and therefore inflationary. 

Jeremy Siegel says the June low was a market bottom

You can count Jeremy Siegel among the group that is feeling more bullish about the U.S. economy and the stock market after the July economic data releases.
Quote from CNBC this morning

The Wharton professor said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that he is growing more confident in the Fed pulling off a "soft landing" and that stocks appear to be on solid footing after a rough start to the year.

"I think the market has it right here, I think June will be a bottom, and I think the second half of the year will be quite good," Siegel said.

Looks to me like stocks are rolling over now - many hit their 200 day MA and then failed at that resistance (along with the Dow and S&P).  Biotech stocks that were the first out of the gate in the rally are now on their way down again. I'm locking in profits, and cutting losses.  Starting to look like a classic bear rally in the end. 

I think the tech rally is a bit overdone.  S&P500 on a forward PE of 18 feels like close to the top of a new range to me.  Not chasing stocks on these level unless fundamentally they make a compelling case for themselves.

HGH on a forward PE in the mid 11's with their track record at placement price of $1.80 is compelling.
SUM, arguably one the best growth stocks on the NZX on a forward PE of just 13 is compelling.

Results round-up  https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520687/the-latest-results-season-has-proven-better-than-feared-what-does-this-mean-for-the-outlook-for-nz-stock-market.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+2+Sep+2022

Today's GDP figs support claims that NZ may avoid /survive a recession (well, so far)

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/09/gdp-figures-new-zealand-avoids-recession-after-1-7-percent-growth-recorded.html

Also, to repeat the concluding para in Basil's above post......

"Overall though, the New Zealand earnings season has proven much better than feared. Despite rising interest rates, and elevated levels of inflation, corporate New Zealand still appears to be in good shape. Companies with strong, defensive business models, and robust pricing power appear to be doing the best, but there are also many companies which are leveraged to the ongoing reopening of the global economy. A weak currency has also been supportive for our exporters. Many companies are sharing the spoils with shareholders, through higher dividends and buybacks. It is also saying something that the share of weight of positive results was enough to overshadow negative sentiment drivers from offshore, including a hawkish Fed. What recession?"

Do you think maybe they just redefined the meaning of GDP?  ;D

Exactly. As per stats NZ June Quarter GDP growth was 1.7% and June Quarter CPI inflation was 1.7%, IE real GDP growth of 0%. Funny that CPI came out exactly the same as GDP growth huh, almost makes you wonder if they just make it up as they go?

Words of Wisdom  8)
"The goal during a bear market is not to make lots of money, it's to survive with your account intact so when the next bull arrives you can compound capital instead of just digging out of a hole. Amateur traders want too much too fast. They are impatient and lack that vision."

https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1572587923001999360

Quote from: KW on Sep 23, 2022, 06:48 PMWords of Wisdom  8)
"The goal during a bear market is not to make lots of money, it's to survive with your account intact so when the next bull arrives you can compound capital instead of just digging out of a hole. Amateur traders want too much too fast. They are impatient and lack that vision."

https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1572587923001999360

Elvis knew a bit about bear markets.

Only fools rush in.

Quote from: Plata on Sep 15, 2022, 03:16 PMExactly. As per stats NZ June Quarter GDP growth was 1.7% and June Quarter CPI inflation was 1.7%, IE real GDP growth of 0%. Funny that CPI came out exactly the same as GDP growth huh, almost makes you wonder if they just make it up as they go?

The GDP number of 1.7% is inflation adjusted (ie at 2009/2010) - nominally it was +3.4%

Ah yes you are right. I missed the fine print  :o . Not so shabby then is it!

Quote from: KW on Sep 23, 2022, 06:48 PMWords of Wisdom  8)
"The goal during a bear market is not to make lots of money, it's to survive with your account intact so when the next bull arrives you can compound capital instead of just digging out of a hole. Amateur traders want too much too fast. They are impatient and lack that vision."

https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1572587923001999360

Well said.  I feel is been really hard work this last 12 months...frustratingly slow to accrue value in my portfolio but in truth the last 12 months have been brutal on the NZX and almost all other bourses.  Fact is this is a game at the moment of he who loses the least is the winner and even keeping your capital intact over the last year is something that I think is a very satisfactory accomplishment indeed.

Better times will come in due course.

Quote from: Plata on Sep 24, 2022, 05:57 PMAh yes you are right. I missed the fine print  :o . Not so shabby then is it!

Numbers being the same prob made you jump to conclusions ........easy done

Like you'd possibly agree with me if I said 225,000 is a 1/4 of a 1,000,000 (billion) ...... esp if I lead with pointing out 25,000 is a 1/4 of 100,000 eh

Sold my last parcel of ATM today and half my SKT. Both have been very profitable for me, but I am seeing better opportunities.

There are a number of companies that are going to benefit from our falling dollar.

Nice to feel some overdue love in my portfolio these last few days.

Been a long winter.

Be interesting to see how the market ends today following the RBNZ announcement.

https://sharecafe.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c2c1464dc7900c4f66c3a574d&id=d1966a91b6&e=338561e893

I don't get this market. ::)   Inflation is much higher and stickier than expected in the US.  Bonds rates increase and the market moves an initial futures lead decline of about 2.5% to an increase later in the day of about the same 2.5%, a whopping 5% market movement in one day, the highest intraday market percentage movement according to CNBC since the massive initial disruptions caused by Covid in March 2020.

Makes my head spin.  Is there any point trying to read this or trade this or is it best for the old doggie to curl up, lick his wounds and play possum and do absolutely nothing ?

Agree Basil. We are in strange times. I guess the market today is saying inflation has peaked. Tomorrow might be different.

Believe the rally was caused by a comment made during the fed minutes, that implied they would take financial markets into account when making interest rate hike decisions. Think people decided that reduces the risk of further fed induced market plunges. Still, core cpi continues to inflate so I'm not at all tempted by this rally, there is still much work ahead of the fed.

Its the PPT stepping in again.  The market is very easy to manipulate, they simply need to buy the mega caps to send the indexes soaring.  That's why its always a good idea to look at what the rest of the market did.  And the new high/new low chart shows the rest of the market was down. 
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24USHL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=t9299806285c&r=1665699037798
(if that link doesnt work, copy and paste the URL into the browser rather than clicking on it)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q

Classic dead cat bounce. It'll all unwind next week. The only way world indexes are going to go in the next 12 months is down.

George Friedman's take on the world at present...... (as delivered 15 Oct 2022)

(George Friedman is a Hungarian-born U.S. geopolitical forecaster, author, and strategist on international affairs. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, an online publication that analyzes and forecasts the course of global events.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NAYAIThOiU

Good to have a portfolio where over 50% of revenue is generated in $USD,

Wall Street up over 2% on Friday (Dow up 10% for Oct)......all is well in the world.

We remain "well positioned.".............lol.

Quote from: Left Field on Oct 29, 2022, 08:32 AMWall Street up over 2% on Friday (Dow up 10% for Oct)......all is well in the world.

A bold statement when you look at all the stress in the system from multi decade high inflation, bond rates and the geopolitical outlook.
Is everything really okay or is this another sucker's bear market rally ?  Where are bond rates going when quantitative tightening starts in earnest?  Hmmm...I am happy to remain quite defensive and protect my nest egg, it's been a great strategy so far in 2022.

Quote from: Basil on Oct 29, 2022, 12:14 PMA bold statement when you look at all the stress in the system from multi decade high inflation, bond rates and the geopolitical outlook.
Is everything really okay or is this another sucker's bear market rally ?  Where are bond rates going when quantitative tightening starts in earnest?  ....

Reminds me of a quote from the great Leonard Cohen. "For many years I studied all the great religions of the world..... but then happiness got in the way."

You are right to express your caution Basil...I should have said, "All in well in my world."

I wish you happiness ( and a dash of humour) in your world.

Thanks Left Field.   I'm feeling good now I've rekindled a very enjoyable hobby.

Just need another Beagle now but Mrs B isn't keen and reckons they're always obsessed with food...she's not wrong lol

Beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel?? (Well, apart from those going down in the long overdue Bitcoin rout.)

Great to see so much green ink appearing in NZ share portfolios lately.

Fingers crossed for some key results coming out in the next two weeks.

Some good 1H FY23 results in my portfolio saw gains of 5% (in total) for the Month of Nov. 

Up 11.3% in the last 2 months.

Over in the USA they are now in BULL mode (according to these Bloomberg analysts)     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coojkg6eaS8

Nice to bathe in the optimism. Onwards and upwards.

Here's hoping !
Not holding my breath to be honest though :-)

Crikey, first post for 2023 on this thread. How are we all doing??

KW's very useful chart https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=127.msg5918#new (see below) is showing a hint of gold..... maybe a hint that we might be getting some positive SP trend action this year after a tough 2022.

FWIW I learned heaps last year, made a few mistakes, but overall my portfolio is looking 'well positioned' and I'm happy I held a few, pruned a few, and used DCA to improve my remaining positions on a range of more defensive companies during recent lows.

PEB was my biggest hit last year...... the whole Novitas thing hurt........but I'm still holding and  still in a profit (albeit a much reduced profit.)

Soon we will have the 2023 Share competition picks to examine other traders picks for 2023.

Sssoo how are you doing??

Tough year last year for sure. Took some losses last year and for the most part saved myself more pain, but as a result my allocations are looking too cash heavy. Started buying some asx 200 etf units, looking to get back under 40% cash... can't miss out on that Easter Bunny rally :o

Interesting start to the 2023 NZX Sharepicking competition..... much better than FY22

Majority of choices already in the green...... let's hope this continues!

See it here https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=7256B889062A4008!1893&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!AKkA58ypTmuexRo

Sold final parcel of PPH and am now out. Have been adding to my position in RYM.

Quote from: Basil on Oct 29, 2022, 12:14 PMA bold statement when you look at all the stress in the system from multi decade high inflation, bond rates and the geopolitical outlook.
Is everything really okay or is this another sucker's bear market rally ?  Where are bond rates going when quantitative tightening starts in earnest?  Hmmm...I am happy to remain quite defensive and protect my nest egg, it's been a great strategy so far in 2022.

USA Unemployment figures the lowest they have been since 1969.

More employment in the last two years than under any previous US administration.

"The Chief Economist of ADP, Nela Richardson, told CNN the 517,000 jobs created in January was "a stunning number" and that "there was nothing in the last three months of US jobs gains that would have prepared you or me for a number that was above half a million jobs created in a single month."

The U.S. jobs report far exceeded expectations while the unemployment rate fell to a historic low of 3.4%.

Speaking to Zain Asher, Nela Richardson went on to say that to "see a year's worth of interest rate hikes, many of them which are quite aggressive translate into a number that is this strong, spells a question for the Fed." She said the Federal Reserve has its work cut out for it to understand what's going on in the jobs market." (source CNN)

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 04, 2023, 04:43 PMUSA Unemployment figures the lowest they have been since 1969.

More employment in the last two years than under any previous US administration.

"The Chief Economist of ADP, Nela Richardson, told CNN the 517,000 jobs created in January was "a stunning number" and that "there was nothing in the last three months of US jobs gains that would have prepared you or me for a number that was above half a million jobs created in a single month."

The U.S. jobs report far exceeded expectations while the unemployment rate fell to a historic low of 3.4%.

Speaking to Zain Asher, Nela Richardson went on to say that to "see a year's worth of interest rate hikes, many of them which are quite aggressive translate into a number that is this strong, spells a question for the Fed." She said the Federal Reserve has its work cut out for it to understand what's going on in the jobs market." (source CNN)

Unemployment is low because workforce participation hasnt recovered to pre-Covid levels.  There are a lot of people still hiding in their basements apparently lol
The jobs reported as "new" are the ones lost during the Covid years, and this is the first month that total numbers of workers have exceeded the number employed back in 2019 pre-pandemic.  If you look at the employment trend over time, and where workforce numbers SHOULD be if Covid hadn't happened, the current numbers are way below trend
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/03/in-information-sector-unemployment-rate-spikes-jobs-fall-for-2nd-month-rest-of-labor-market-is-rocking-rolling/

A lot of those jobs probably have something to do with China reopening - US companies can finally rehire all their China buyers, sales agents, manufacturing supervisors, Chinese tour guides and bus drivers, and Chinese real estate agents :-)

Appreciate your comments KW

Full employment (ie record unemployment)  a sign of a strong US economy..... but also an inflationary warning as higher wages may be needed to chase increasingly scarce labour.

More contradictions in the tech sectors with huge lay-offs.... but are these people being scooped up or is it too early to say?

Lots of contradictions IMO so I'm not reading too much in it.

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 04, 2023, 08:05 PMAppreciate your comments KW

Full employment (ie record unemployment)  a sign of a strong US economy..... but also an inflationary warning as higher wages may be needed to chase increasingly scarce labour.

More contradictions in the tech sectors with huge lay-offs.... but are these people being scooped up or is it too early to say?

Lots of contradictions IMO so I'm not reading too much in it.

There is so much bulldust in official numbers these days that its hard to know what is the truth.  Take NZ - record unemployment right?  Except that there has been a 28% increase in the number of people on JobSeeker since Labour took over.  Plus all the sole parents that got moved from JobSeeker to the Sole Parents Benefit when Jacinda decided that parents no longer needed to look for work any more.  So do we really have low unemployment when the numbers of unemployed and non-working people have gone up almost 30%?  

Heads up too on US CPI - they have just changed the definition of it, presumably so that it reads lower.  Inflation if still measured by 1980's definition of CPI is currently running at 14% in the US.  Its all numberwang these days.  

No problems KW, Janet Yellen say's all is fine....

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yellen-you-dont-have-recession-when-us-unemployment-53-year-low-2023-02-06/

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she saw a path for avoiding a U.S. recession, with inflation coming down significantly and the economy remaining strong, given the strength of the U.S. labor market.

"You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years," Yellen told ABC's Good Morning America program.

"What I see is a path in which inflation is declining significantly and the economy is remaining strong."

Ophir Funds Jan 2023 newsletter pretty bullish too

https://www.ophiram.com.au/letter-to-investors-january-4/

"S&P 500 broke through 200 MA day average......this along with other market technical indicators suggests there may be further upside to (US) markets in the near term"

Quote from: Left Field on Feb 11, 2023, 09:51 AMOphir Funds Jan 2023 newsletter pretty bullish too

https://www.ophiram.com.au/letter-to-investors-january-4/

"S&P 500 broke through 200 MA day average......this along with other market technical indicators suggests there may be further upside to (US) markets in the near term"

I really like that "dash for trash" term they use :)

Quite a few key results out next week..... hopefully they will give us some indications for FY24.

Another key event is the USA debt ceiling impasse.

If the Republicans stick to their disruptive plans, the US markets could be in for a tough time which will overlap into NZ.

Iv had a bit of a lift in the last week. Going to be interesting to see if it continues... still have a little cash sitting and ready to go.

Sound thinking to increase cash holdings pending next weeks NZX results and USA's debt negotiations ahead of their 1 June deadline.

Encouraging news ex Guardian - "The Republican House speaker Kevin McCarthy, told reporters at the Capitol that he sees "the path" towards a deal with Democrats to raise the debt ceiling."

Mid June should give us a clearer picture.....

"News that the talks were paused sent financial markets lower on Friday, a sign of investor unease that a protracted standoff could roil the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suddenly dropped 300 points from its high for the day before recovering slightly."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/19/debt-ceiling-talks-pause/

News of tentative agreement on US debt-ceiling lessens recession risks and could boost stocks..... or not!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/27/debt-ceiling-talks/

 Craig's BAKERS DOZEN – it's that time of the month again where we have recalibrated our Bakers Dozen performance – the good news is we continue to generate alpha with our 13 stock ideas first outlined in this note on 8th Dec-22 now +9% relative to the NZX50 Gross Index +3.2% over the same period. Part of the out-performance reflects our decision to take a more active rather than "set and forget" approach to opportunities we see in the market – see our summary of various switches below.
Our portfolio constituents which currently includes XRO, IFT, THL, GNE, FSF, GTK, MEL, RYM, SKT, SPK, CNU, CEN, SKC.
The top three overall performers while in the portfolio are XRO (+17.5%), IFT (+14.2%) and THL (+12.0%).
The bottom three overall performers while in the portfolio: SKC (-13.9%), CEN (-0.5%) and CNU (+1.9%).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bearish-bets-against-s-p-500-are-surging-despite-love-for-big-tech-506cacc?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Wall Street hasn't been this bearish on the stock market in more than a decade. Tech shares are a different story.

Hedge funds and other speculative investors have built up a big bet that the S&P 500 will decline, marking their most bearish positioning since 2007. At the same time, they are preparing for a rally in the technology-focused Nasdaq-100, with net bullish wagers in recent weeks approaching the highest levels since late last year.

That is according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission compiled by Bespoke Investment Group, when measured as a percentage of open futures-market interest.

The divergence in positioning reflects the fragility of the 2023 stock rally, strategists say. The S&P 500 is up 12% this year, but it would be negative without the contribution of seven big tech companies, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data through the end of May. That potentially leaves the index vulnerable to a steep pullback if even one or two big companies misstep...........................etc.

And the Naz

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ai-stocks-are-flying-but-dont-call-the-craze-a-bubble-18403c5a?mod=article_inline

The rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence has created a frenzy on Wall Street, but investors and strategists say the rush to profit from the new technology isn't necessarily a bubble.

Investors are piling into shares of big technology companies—such as Nvidia NVDA , which soared 24% Thursday—that are perceived to be leading in the nascent field. They are pumping cash into private startups working on generative AI, or systems that can conjure humanlike conversation and imagery and generate computer code.

The AI app ChatGPT reached 100 million downloads in just two months, much faster than other popular apps such as TikTok and Uber. The rapid growth of the technology has caught the attention of lawmakers in Washington, who have begun a bipartisan push toward establishing new regulations....................etc...

Tuesday was not a good day for me. Not only did I have to watch the train wreck of Pacific Edge then came the loss of the Chemist Warehouse contract and Ebos taking a hammering.

I always find it hard when a share I invest in tanks. One thing I do is go back and look at why I invested in these shares in the first place. To me a loss is an expensive lesson that I need to learn from, therefore in future I will hopefully make smarter decisions. If I make the same mistake and I must admit I have in the past then the loss is just that "A LOSS WITH NO VALUE"

Pacific Edge was originally just a punt. I currently have about 20 percent of my portfolio in what I call punts with total loss a real possibility. I find punts fun and can be very rewarding but I realise that it's high risk and understand and accept the consequences.  With PEB I made a mistake by doubling my holding as it dropped. Some time after that I lost faith in the company and made a further mistake of holding and not selling.

I'm currently still holding after my sell order was not good enough. In time that might just be another mistake but my logic is that to sell at current level won't generate much money and realising the loss is final. From my point of view it's only a small holding and a benefit of having a well diversified portfolio. Unfortunately there were some people that face some very serious loss currently with this one.  I just don't like seeing red in my portfolio it hurts. luckily it does not happen often. I will continue to make punts so there will always be some that work out and some that don't. As I get older and hopefullly wiser, I will no doubt take less risk. This will mean my punting percentage will narrow and might even go completely.

Ebos is a different fish. It's one of my largest holdings and the share price drop is big money but still in the green as have sold a few and had for a while. Have gone through all available information and the same reasons I took a position in the first place are still there in my opinion. Will continue to hold and was hopeful that it would give me an opportunity to buy more. So far that has not been the case. Looking at the deal that Sigma offered I don't think the changes that Ebos wins it back in 3 years time are high. Only hope I think is that Sigma can't cope which is unlikely.

Sound proven management. Long history of EPS growth. Sounds like there are still plenty of acquisition opportunity's according to CEO. The board and management have a year before the loss of the CW contract takes affect. In years to come I think the growth will continue along with the share price with patient investors rewarded.

Feel for you mate, that's a very rough day to have those two things happen at once.
Buying in a confirmed downtrend is a VERY high risk strategy and something I have tried very hard to build discipline around over the years and generally avoid it unless I think the fundamental case is truly compelling.

Read an interesting article in the Herald recently, tried to dig it out but couldn't find it online.
Anyway the gist of it was the Covid wealth has gone.  Housing has fallen a lot, the amount of money on term deposit has fallen e.t.c.e.t.c....someone else might be able to find it but what I found most interesting was how our market has performed since the peak.  On 8 January 2021 the NZX50 (which is a gross index inclusive of dividends), was 13,558.  As of a couple of minutes ago it was 11,739.  The NZX50 index is down 13.5% inclusive of all dividends paid in the last 30 months !

Just for "fun" I plugged those numbers into the Reserve Bank inflation calculator and in real inflation adjusted terms including all dividends paid in the last 30 months the market is down ~ 25% !  Wow that's sobering stuff. 

Why do I look at these things ? Sometimes I find it really useful to do a stock take of how my portfolio has performed compared to the market over time.  That always cheers me up a bit even in a bear market.  I also find it brings me focus to reflect on the type of market we are in and helps me create strategies to manage the risk.

US markets in bull market territory

Over last while interest rates go up 500 points and equity prices also rise. And apparently conditions are tight.

I don't understand -

Maybe ask Chat GPT to explain it because I don't understand it either.
Interestingly, according to a CNBC poll last weekend of high net worth investors with more than a million dollars of investable assets, many do not trust the share market run in recent times and the average cash allocation in their portfolio's was just on 33%, at a record high level.
Now you can get 5-6% on call / short term deposit and we're in a confirmed down trending bear market, seems like a sensible risk management strategy to me.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 10, 2023, 12:38 PMUS markets in bull market territory

Over last while interest rates go up 500 points and equity prices also rise. And apparently conditions are tight.

I don't understand -

For the US at least, they have interest rates higher than their inflation rate.  Which is how it should be.  The stock market is forward looking, and over the last 18 months it has been continually pricing in higher interest rates, which increases the discount rate used to value company future cashflows, and higher rates lowers the value of those earnings and consequently the share price.  (Thats the FA analysis, there is a whole other TA one based around sentiment).  Now the end to rate rises is in sight (and even future rate decreases), so company growth rates can start being priced back in without more discounting, and share prices of growth oriented companies will start to rise again.  The stock market prices not for how things are today, but how it expects things to be in 12 months time.  The US is feeling pretty optimistic about next year.  Can't say the same about NZ as inflation is still raging, and even though the RBNZ has said its on hold, the market doesnt believe it.  Australia and Canada were also supposed to be "on hold" and both were forced to raise interest rates this week, and to raise the peak terminal rate.  This is now crushing consumer discretionary stocks like retailers in Australia, and the income stocks that the NZ market is stacked with.

A lot of money was parked in the "value" and "income" type companies, and what is now happening is that money is leaving those stocks and rotating back into growth companies, in particular tech and AI-adjacent stocks.  Money flow is what drives prices.  What I have been watching is the market breadth to see if the money flow was widespread (indicating a new bull market or at least a really good bear rally), or just concentrated in a handful of megacaps (a small number of crowded trades is a set up for a market crash).  Because of the huge contribution of the megacaps in the index, the "new bull market" is not as good as it seems (without those megacaps the S&P would not be in a bull market, it would be down 2%) but sentiment change will help pick up the rest of the market.  Watch the Russell 2000 for a trend reversal (its currently just basing in a fairly tight range).

There is an old adage "a bull market climbs a wall of worry".  Hopefully that is what the US market is doing.  As for NZ and Australia, we have further to go to get inflation under control, because its barely moved from its 7.1% peak. Which means further rate rises.  Or a recession which crushes the economy.  Which means further discounting.  Which means further equity price falls. 

Quote from: Shareguy on Jun 08, 2023, 08:32 PMWith PEB I made a mistake by doubling my holding as it dropped. Some time after that I lost faith in the company and made a further mistake of holding and not selling.

Everyone does this.  Everyone has this story.  Ask me about BIG sometime :( But you get punched in the stomach, you get up and vow never to do it again.  If you don't, then its an expensive lesson of great value.  The problem is when you go and do it again on something else.

This is where TA is your best friend.  If you are going to "take a punt" on something, do it on a stock in an uptrend.  If you lie down with dogs, you will get up with fleas.  There are plenty of crazy stupid punts over on the ASX that are ripping higher, you have a much greater chance of coming out with a profit on them than a stock that has been in a downtrend for a long time (see PEB chart). 

So after having been punched in the gut, I have learned ...
(a) not to hold a stock in a confirmed downtrend, the market always knows something is not right, even if you don't have a clue, and you will never know what you don't know so this is not something you can correct,
(b) never buy a stock in a confirmed downtrend, because punting on something to change is probably worse odds than walking into a casino and putting your money on black, and "averaging down" losses is a fools game
(c) when a confirmed downtrend becomes apparent, SELL.  Immediately.  There are plenty of other options you can cycle that cash into that will make you money, don't hang around waiting to lose even more, and
(d) even if you think all hope is lost, and that selling what meagre amount you have left is completely pointless, its not.  Even if you scrape up the last few dollars you have in it, you can put invest your punt funds into some tiny nano cap on the ASX in which a $5000 or even $500 investment could generate substantial returns.  If nothing else, removing that red entry from your portfolio is going to make you feel mentally better, rather than torturing yourself every time you log in.  Mental health is important.  Losses bring twice as much pain as gains bring pleasure.  So its important to move on from the loss.  Otherwise its just the emotionally destructive equivalent of looking at your ex's Facebook page each day.

Sadly none of this advice would have helped you with EBO.  Sometimes shit happens.  Just got to take it on the chin, and hope it wasnt a king hit.  At best EBO will probably range trade for a while, it seems to be sitting on a support level.  The problem is that you don't know how long it will range trade for, and you don't know how much financial damage the loss of that contract will actually do as you would need to know the margin on that contract, and whether the costs associated with it were fixed (they still remain) or variable (now gone).  This means that there is a high potential for future nasty surprises if the remaining revenue is insufficient to cover their fixed cost base.  You also don't know how much of their future growth was predicated on the growth of Chemist Warehouse (eg new stores in NZ, China and Ireland).  So ask yourself "Do I feel lucky?" and then see (a)-(d) above.

Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 10, 2023, 12:38 PMUS markets in bull market territory

Over last while interest rates go up 500 points and equity prices also rise. And apparently conditions are tight.

I don't understand -

Might have something to do with markets forward looking.

Just imagine the following scenarios:

• (1) Interest rates have peaked and moving downwards from here.
• (2) Russia has a change of leadership, the current leader gets disposed of dangling under one of the Volga bridges (following Mussolini's great example) and his successor sees economic reason, withdraws from an anyway lost war and and agrees to UN peacekeepers in the Ukraine - against a cancellation of all Western sanctions. Prices for energy and resources drop ... and the rebuild of the Ukraine is a huge push for industries world wide. Remember the "Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle)" in the west after WW 2?
• (3) Trump disappears for life behind bars and the so called Grand Old Party regains sense and remembers that at some stage it was the task of politicians to work together to achieve the best outcome for the people instead of lifting the most corrupt and selfish person they can find into presidency. There is again some sense in US politics and both parties work together to further the interests of the US and the free world. Huge resources flow into rebuilding the ageing US infrastructure
• (4) The dear leader Xi dies unexpectedly (life is dangerous) and the next secretary is open to work with the rest of the world to further the interests of his country instead of against both.

Scenario 1 is pretty certain - and markets just looking through the next couple of months.
Scenario 2 is in the realms of possibility. Anybody remembers the end of the cold war? Nobody predicted that before as well.
Scenario 3 - I agree sounds unlikely, but lets not forget - after WW2 politicians and countries learned as well pretty fast to work together instead of against each other. It is possible.
Scenario 4 - again, not sure how likely, but not without precedent. Remember Zhou Enlai? Not every Chinese leader is an autocratic and power hungry ar*ehole without regard for the interest of his people.

Pick any 2 of the above scenarios - and a huge economic boom is likely to follow. Maybe markets are just forward looking and we don't see it yet?

Money flow is what drives prices. - KW

Where is the liquidity going to come from for higher highs on the S&P?
Below is a chart that shows traders short positioning & Money market flows.

Short positions in the S&P500 are now at levels that are greater than the GFC.
Money Market Assets just hit a record $5.5T this week.

FyLp4EKXoAA5Meb.jpg

Make of it what you will.

Quote from: Cod on Jun 11, 2023, 02:17 PMMoney flow is what drives prices. - KW

Where is the liquidity going to come from for higher highs on the S&P?
Below is a chart that shows traders short positioning & Money market flows.

Short positions in the S&P500 are now at levels that are greater than the GFC.
Money Market Assets just hit a record $5.5T this week.

FyLp4EKXoAA5Meb.jpg

Make of it what you will.

COD how about this as a scenario .
Market keeps moving higher , some of the record amount of "shorts " begin to cover - forces the market higher ...
The $ 5.5 trillion sitting on the sidelines gets FOMO , believing there is a good rally in store helped by lower interest rates.......
 Sounds like a good money flow to me ?

Stoploss - Yes, that is one possible outcome, but I am careful not to predict, it is after all only two parts of the "Weight of the evidence data".

Cod

Quote from: Cod on Jun 11, 2023, 02:17 PMMoney flow is what drives prices. - KW

Where is the liquidity going to come from for higher highs on the S&P?
Below is a chart that shows traders short positioning & Money market flows.

Short positions in the S&P500 are now at levels that are greater than the GFC.
Money Market Assets just hit a record $5.5T this week.

From all that cash sitting in money market funds, just waiting for a signal to move back into growth assets.  Once they get a whiff that the bull market is on, that cash will move quick smart.

I'm not so sure about that.  Apart from the obvious worry about a potential hard economic landing I get the sense a lot of people are worried about the prospect of another black swan event.

Quote from: KW on Jun 10, 2023, 01:14 PMFor the US at least, they have interest rates higher than their inflation rate.  Which is how it should be.  The stock market is forward looking, and over the last 18 months it has been continually pricing in higher interest rates, which increases the discount rate used to value company future cashflows, and higher rates lowers the value of those earnings and consequently the share price.  (Thats the FA analysis, there is a whole other TA one based around sentiment).  Now the end to rate rises is in sight (and even future rate decreases), so company growth rates can start being priced back in without more discounting, and share prices of growth oriented companies will start to rise again.  The stock market prices not for how things are today, but how it expects things to be in 12 months time.  The US is feeling pretty optimistic about next year.  Can't say the same about NZ as inflation is still raging, and even though the RBNZ has said its on hold, the market doesnt believe it.  Australia and Canada were also supposed to be "on hold" and both were forced to raise interest rates this week, and to raise the peak terminal rate.  This is now crushing consumer discretionary stocks like retailers in Australia, and the income stocks that the NZ market is stacked with.

A lot of money was parked in the "value" and "income" type companies, and what is now happening is that money is leaving those stocks and rotating back into growth companies, in particular tech and AI-adjacent stocks.  Money flow is what drives prices.  What I have been watching is the market breadth to see if the money flow was widespread (indicating a new bull market or at least a really good bear rally), or just concentrated in a handful of megacaps (a small number of crowded trades is a set up for a market crash).  Because of the huge contribution of the megacaps in the index, the "new bull market" is not as good as it seems (without those megacaps the S&P would not be in a bull market, it would be down 2%) but sentiment change will help pick up the rest of the market.  Watch the Russell 2000 for a trend reversal (its currently just basing in a fairly tight range).

There is an old adage "a bull market climbs a wall of worry".  Hopefully that is what the US market is doing.  As for NZ and Australia, we have further to go to get inflation under control, because its barely moved from its 7.1% peak. Which means further rate rises.  Or a recession which crushes the economy.  Which means further discounting.  Which means further equity price falls. 

very lucid & well written...thanks...

Quote from: Basil on Jun 11, 2023, 06:08 PMI'm not so sure about that.  Apart from the obvious worry about a potential hard economic landing I get the sense a lot of people are worried about the prospect of another black swan event.

Don't they say the bull is climbing a wall of worries? Black Swan events are always in the wings ... even before they discovered Australia :);

No point either to keep too much cash for a black swan event ... they well might destroy the bank you're holding the cash in or the currency you are using. Anybody who is careful will diversify their holdings (next to other essential things) into companies producing essential stuff and property providing shelter. Holding (too much) cash can be a very dangerous thing in a black swan event.

Quote from: Basil on Jun 11, 2023, 06:08 PMI'm not so sure about that.  Apart from the obvious worry about a potential hard economic landing I get the sense a lot of people are worried about the prospect of another black swan event.

Yes, there's a great deal of generalised stress and worry out there. Multiple reasons, amplified by social media and all of us struggling with information overload.
And of course, while not a Black Swan as its entirely predictable, there is the changing demographics of the world's population and its massive impacts on political structures, on climate, etc etc
In just my lifetime the global population has risen from 2.7 bill to 8 billion. Extraordinary.
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth 

Sharesies members looking bullish again

"Online trading platform Sharesies, which now has $2.5b in funds under management, has dug into the behaviour and sentiment of its 500,000 members to release its first investor index report."

Signs of optimism.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522005/sharesies-members-looking-bullish-again.html

I wonder whether other brokers will have similar results/ outcomes should their target investor have different investment goals/ ideas/ targets/ methodology/ etc.

Well it's been a interesting few months. Have been buying Mainfreight, Ebos on weakness.  Sold down a good portion of GNE and is no longer a big holding. Reduced my holdings in the retirement sector.  In Australia have doubled my holding in DGL. Have also added to my Discovery funds which to date have done very well.

With the good comes the bad.  Continuing to hold Rakon which is a free carry position clouded my judgement, and I should have sold the lot when it was over $2. Stu has gone no where but still confident that the worst is over and is paying a good divi with the future bright I think. My worst decision was getting back into FBU. In my opinion the largest nest of cockroaches are resident and I won't be back.

All up it's been a ok year with capital intact.  I was lucky to switch into some good US stocks at the right time. Adding to my Apple position and taking some new positions. Have also been lucky with a good currency gain. The NZX has been a disappointment for me.

As I said before I'm thinking we are over the worst. A change of government and I'm seeing confidence building, house prices on the turn. It's early days but I'm positive going forward.

And summer starts tomorrow.

Thanks shareguy! Always interested to hear what everyone is up to! Iv topped up on Skl and brm. Only small amounts tho... still got some cash on hand...

Quote from: Shareguy on Nov 30, 2023, 07:29 PMWell it's been a interesting few months. Have been buying Mainfreight, Ebos on weakness.  Sold down a good portion of GNE and is no longer a big holding. Reduced my holdings in the retirement sector.  In Australia have doubled my holding in DGL. Have also added to my Discovery funds which to date have done very well.

With the good comes the bad.  Continuing to hold Rakon which is a free carry position clouded my judgement, and I should have sold the lot when it was over $2. Stu has gone no where but still confident that the worst is over and is paying a good divi with the future bright I think. My worst decision was getting back into FBU. In my opinion the largest nest of cockroaches are resident and I won't be back.

All up it's been a ok year with capital intact.  I was lucky to switch into some good US stocks at the right time. Adding to my Apple position and taking some new positions. Have also been lucky with a good currency gain. The NZX has been a disappointment for me.

As I said before I'm thinking we are over the worst. A change of government and I'm seeing confidence building, house prices on the turn. It's early days but I'm positive going forward.

And summer starts tomorrow.

Similar-ish story for me.  NZ has been mostly hard work, for every HLG or TRA there's been an IKE (or 3.)  For now I'm exclusively holding SEK here - and hoping for a good harvest season. I've nearly pushed the "play and record" buttons on a few others but nothing else has been hollering "BUY" at me yet (and age has wearied my fingers...)

Over the way I've been buying small cap mining and energy stocks, the prices of which have been smashed (many are down 70-80% from their highs) but with fundamentally no change to their story. 

Stateside has been my big win.  My three there are Arlo, Tiger Brokers and Rocketlab.  The first two have made my year.  Luckily Rocketlab is by far the smallest holding... and I will likely flick most of that on the next spike. 

Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 02, 2023, 09:03 AMSimilar-ish story for me.  NZ has been mostly hard work, for every HLG or TRA there's been an IKE (or 3.)  For now I'm exclusively holding SEK here - and hoping for a good harvest season. I've nearly pushed the "play and record" buttons on a few others but nothing else has been hollering "BUY" at me yet (and age has wearied my fingers...)

Over the way I've been buying small cap mining and energy stocks, the prices of which have been smashed (many are down 70-80% from their highs) but with fundamentally no change to their story. 

Stateside has been my big win.  My three there are Arlo, Tiger Brokers and Rocketlab.  The first two have made my year.  Luckily Rocketlab is by far the smallest holding... and I will likely flick most of that on the next spike. 

Yes the NZX currently does not have much that interests me either from a value point of view. Interesting to note that the NZX50 returned 5 percent for November bringing the 12 month return to -1.9 percent. December is normally a good month for stocks.

I agree the Australian small caps offer a lot of opportunities and one broker said they are on sale at the moment. Discovery funds who invest in the small caps seem to be doing a great job (up over 40 percent) at picking so am happy at this stage to leave most of that market to them.

Like you have been cautious with buying. For me my portfolio is becoming more higher quality each year. Who wants worry and a good sleep is important. On saying that still love a good punt, however capital preservation is number one.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/stock-market-today-live-update.html

"Goldilocks" conditions supportive of the seasonal rally continuing?

Latest views from Craigs and my own portfolio review.

March quarter recap and what to watch in Q2
This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would've expected.
World shares rose 7.8 per cent and as was the case in 2023, the US and Japan led the charge.
The S&P 500 in the US gained 10.2 per cent for the quarter, surpassing its 2022 high and finishing March almost 30 per cent above its October lows.
It was a remarkable run, with the S&P 500 rising for 16 out of 18 weeks for the first time since 1971.
Optimism over developments in AI was again a major driver of the gains, with star performer NVIDIA surging another 82.5 per cent over the quarter.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rallied a staggering 20.6 per cent, it's strongest quarter since 2009.
Other international sharemarkets were up more modestly, while a weaker NZ dollar boosted returns even further.
The currency fell below US$0.60 for the first time since November, and it also declined against the British pound, euro and Australian dollar.
New Zealand assets lagged, with the NZX 50 sharemarket index rising 2.8 per cent and corporate bonds posting a marginal gain.

With interest rates The European Central Bank could be next, with June shaping up as an opportune time.
The US Federal Reserve shouldn't be far behind, but that could be a story for the third quarter rather than the second.
Here in New Zealand, the economy is likely to keep struggling over the next quarter or two.
The Reserve Bank hasn't hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) since May last year, but for many households the headwinds will grow, not subside.
More than half of our collective mortgages are due to reprice within the next year, and the average rate people are paying is still about one per cent below current rates.
Our sharemarket doesn't mirror the economy particularly well, so a tough backdrop doesn't necessary mean bad news for our listed companies.
The NZX is dominated by stable, mature businesses in sectors like electricity, infrastructure, healthcare and real estate.
Weaker activity increases the chance of OCR cuts (and markets see the first of those coming in August), which should benefit companies in those industries.
While world shares are at a record high, New Zealand share prices ended March 19.1 per cent below their early 2021 peak.
Rising interest rates haven't been kind to our market in recent times, but we'll have our time in the sun again.
Don't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions.
The next important test for financial markets could be the US corporate reporting season, which starts next week.
For the 2024 calendar year, the S&P 500 index is expected to deliver revenue growth of five per cent and earnings growth of 11 per cent.
The bar for avoiding disappointment moves higher as share prices rise, so if we're going to see a sell-off in the months ahead there's every chance it comes on the back of weaker earnings or softer guidance.
Looking beyond the next three months and into 2025, inflation is expected to keep trending down and interest rates will almost certainly be lower than they are today.
If economic activity remains resilient, that's not a bad environment for growth assets, not to mention fixed income.
A bit of weakness wouldn't be a bad thing, as it might offer an attractive entry point for investors and another opportunity to put some fresh capital to work.

For my own quarterly review I have sold down more of my NZX portfolio across the board to pay tax. My thoughts are that my NZX portfolio performance has been subdued. Overall only holding its own....just. Disapointing when I look at the returns of my offshore investments. The NZX must be due for some growth but think not a lots going to happen until interest rates start dropping,which is why I took money from the NZX and not elsewhere.

It would be easy to sell out of the NZ market completly. However diversification, and as stated above I can't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions. Like the warriors it's got to be our year soon. The only share on the NZX that I'm looking at buying currently is Heartland Bank. Have applied for full entitlement plus all additional shares that I could. Sure it might go under $1.00 but think it's safe buying at these levels.

As far as international shares have gone. The performance has been exceptional however this month even Discovery funds are having a bad month down over 7 percent month to date (up 16 percent for quarter). Very tempting to take some profits out of Amazon and Alphabet but think there is more growth to come.

With what's happening in the world very easy and understandable to have a larger cash waiting. Bank deposit rates are still attractive and you can still beat inflation, just. Will certainly be some opportunities coming up but safe havens like term deposits should not be over looked in my opinion while a clearer picture of growth shows and the clouds clear.

Well that's my thoughts anyway.

The NZX as poor as it sometimes seems is no where near a " Like the warriors it's got to be our year soon"  is it?

please there are some outstanding performances by NZ Teams which often have an international team make up....

Lots of people from all over the world are working every day in NZ and for NZ companies...

Some companies have even gone off shore and survived and may Thrive in the future even if they sometimes hit by cyclical head winds such as high interest rates.

Go Team NZ...

Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 20, 2024, 11:27 AMLatest views from Craigs and my own portfolio review.

March quarter recap and what to watch in Q2
This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would've expected.
World shares rose 7.8 per cent and as was the case in 2023, the US and Japan led the charge.
The S&P 500 in the US gained 10.2 per cent for the quarter, surpassing its 2022 high and finishing March almost 30 per cent above its October lows.
It was a remarkable run, with the S&P 500 rising for 16 out of 18 weeks for the first time since 1971.
Optimism over developments in AI was again a major driver of the gains, with star performer NVIDIA surging another 82.5 per cent over the quarter.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rallied a staggering 20.6 per cent, it's strongest quarter since 2009.
Other international sharemarkets were up more modestly, while a weaker NZ dollar boosted returns even further.
The currency fell below US$0.60 for the first time since November, and it also declined against the British pound, euro and Australian dollar.
New Zealand assets lagged, with the NZX 50 sharemarket index rising 2.8 per cent and corporate bonds posting a marginal gain.

With interest rates The European Central Bank could be next, with June shaping up as an opportune time.
The US Federal Reserve shouldn't be far behind, but that could be a story for the third quarter rather than the second.
Here in New Zealand, the economy is likely to keep struggling over the next quarter or two.
The Reserve Bank hasn't hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) since May last year, but for many households the headwinds will grow, not subside.
More than half of our collective mortgages are due to reprice within the next year, and the average rate people are paying is still about one per cent below current rates.
Our sharemarket doesn't mirror the economy particularly well, so a tough backdrop doesn't necessary mean bad news for our listed companies.
The NZX is dominated by stable, mature businesses in sectors like electricity, infrastructure, healthcare and real estate.
Weaker activity increases the chance of OCR cuts (and markets see the first of those coming in August), which should benefit companies in those industries.
While world shares are at a record high, New Zealand share prices ended March 19.1 per cent below their early 2021 peak.
Rising interest rates haven't been kind to our market in recent times, but we'll have our time in the sun again.
Don't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions.
The next important test for financial markets could be the US corporate reporting season, which starts next week.
For the 2024 calendar year, the S&P 500 index is expected to deliver revenue growth of five per cent and earnings growth of 11 per cent.
The bar for avoiding disappointment moves higher as share prices rise, so if we're going to see a sell-off in the months ahead there's every chance it comes on the back of weaker earnings or softer guidance.
Looking beyond the next three months and into 2025, inflation is expected to keep trending down and interest rates will almost certainly be lower than they are today.
If economic activity remains resilient, that's not a bad environment for growth assets, not to mention fixed income.
A bit of weakness wouldn't be a bad thing, as it might offer an attractive entry point for investors and another opportunity to put some fresh capital to work.

For my own quarterly review I have sold down more of my NZX portfolio across the board to pay tax. My thoughts are that my NZX portfolio performance has been subdued. Overall only holding its own....just. Disapointing when I look at the returns of my offshore investments. The NZX must be due for some growth but think not a lots going to happen until interest rates start dropping,which is why I took money from the NZX and not elsewhere.

It would be easy to sell out of the NZ market completly. However diversification, and as stated above I can't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions. Like the warriors it's got to be our year soon. The only share on the NZX that I'm looking at buying currently is Heartland Bank. Have applied for full entitlement plus all additional shares that I could. Sure it might go under $1.00 but think it's safe buying at these levels.

As far as international shares have gone. The performance has been exceptional however this month even Discovery funds are having a bad month down over 7 percent month to date (up 16 percent for quarter). Very tempting to take some profits out of Amazon and Alphabet but think there is more growth to come.

With what's happening in the world very easy and understandable to have a larger cash waiting. Bank deposit rates are still attractive and you can still beat inflation, just. Will certainly be some opportunities coming up but safe havens like term deposits should not be over looked in my opinion while a clearer picture of growth shows and the clouds clear.

Well that's my thoughts anyway.

That mirrors much of my thinking.  I'm out of the NZX completely - recently sold out of my last holding SEK.  I hold some US stock and I'm heavy in ASX minerals and metals.  Overall, I have considerably less in stocks than I usually hold.

Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 20, 2024, 11:27 AMWith what's happening in the world very easy and understandable to have a larger cash waiting. Bank deposit rates are still attractive and you can still beat inflation, just. Will certainly be some opportunities coming up but safe havens like term deposits should not be over looked in my opinion while a clearer picture of growth shows and the clouds clear.

Great post.  Amazing run in overseas markets from 1 November to 31 March...almost straight up so a decent correction seems almost a certainty and in my opinion is only part way through playing itself out.  Yes absolutely, this is a great time to take some chips off the table.  Q1 inflation in N.Z. was only 0.6% and annualizing that, that's only 2.4% so term deposits are well and truly outperforming inflation at this point in time.    I am currently running a very high cash weighting in my portfolio.  I'm playing defense here in my portfolio and looking to protect the gains I enjoyed for the financial year just ended.

I also see the N.Z. economy performing in quite an anemic way for at least the current and next quarter.  With the honeymoon period over for the National party, it feels like it's going to be a real grind to get out of this recession.  We've had negative GDP growth in 4 of the last 5 quarters and with record immigration level's the real rate of per capita GDP contraction is quite concerning.  I think the RBNZ needs to cut sooner than later.

Sometimes it's not about how much you make in the short run, it's about risk mitigation.

What work for me won't fit for others. My mid- and long-term approach is creating long term wealth for me.  Basically, I am a cash flow man having contrarian approach. I didn't have any interest on dividend-based stocks. Lately I found advantage of having dividend champions. My returns were above average over the last two financial years. I make use of my emergency cash whenever I find quality investment trading at a big discount. I was trimming, buying,adding and selling stocks over the last 12 months. They have worked well for me. Cash cows and strong balance sheets are my favourites. That doesn't me I am going to overpay for them. I am a value hunter.  Good luck!

well no NZ holdings that mean no F&P health care?

no freight?
no ports?
no agri culture?
no commercial property?

the golden tri angle is slated to grow in population and production over the next 5 years...

NZ may not out perform but it can still produce and not all companies are FBU or some even worse ones...
Its true the companies are flat but after reading the sentiment here the NZX might as well close and anything remaining list on the ASX...

that means dumping the KIWI and joining the KANGA...?

Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 20, 2024, 03:09 PMwell no NZ holdings that mean no F&P health care?

no freight?
no ports?
no agri culture?
no commercial property?

the golden tri angle is slated to grow in population and production over the next 5 years...

NZ may not out perform but it can still produce and not all companies are FBU or some even worse ones...
Its true the companies are flat but after reading the sentiment here the NZX might as well close and anything remaining list on the ASX...

that means dumping the KIWI and joining the KANGA...?

There are few quality NZ stocks. High valuation is a concern.

Quote from: Mr Cashflow on Apr 20, 2024, 02:48 PMWhat work for me won't fit for others. My mid- and long-term approach is creating long term wealth for me.  Basically, I am a cash flow man having contrarian approach. I didn't have any interest on dividend-based stocks. Lately I found advantage of having dividend champions. My returns were above average over the last two financial years. I make use of my emergency cash whenever I find quality investment trading at a big discount. I was trimming, buying,adding and selling stocks over the last 12 months. They have worked well for me. Cash cows and strong balance sheets are my favourites. That doesn't me I am going to overpay for them. I am a value hunter.  Good luck!

This text seems very AI-like. Valuegrowth?

Quote from: Basil on Apr 20, 2024, 01:47 PMI am currently running a very high cash weighting in my portfolio.  I'm playing defense here in my portfolio and looking to protect the gains I enjoyed for the financial year just ended.

Those term deposits with their 5-6+% rates have been attractive. However interest rates are headed lower at some point so should we be preparing for it. It seems to me now is the opportunity to lock into dividend stocks before they become popular again.

 AI replies...

well you could CO PILOT the posts one supposes ... but if you get a silly post with you tube links to something totally daft .... you know it not AI...

at least not yet as dont think MAX head room is embedded in the models ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYdpOjletnc

 




 

Carnage in Japan and USA markets according to the headlines...

And yet the NZX seems to have escaped relatively unscathed?  (so far)

With the NZX due for key company results and updates over the next two weeks it's encouraging to see no signs of panic. Seems NZX investors prefer to let the updates inform their decisions.

Interesting recent article  https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523446/are-nz-equities-a-buy.html

So the Nikkei was down 12% on Monday and up 10% on Tuesday.  seems to be way overblown

Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 06, 2024, 07:43 PMSo the Nikkei was down 12% on Monday and up 10% on Tuesday.  seems to be way overblown

White Noise.

Craig's saying  "investors should move to being fully invested"

Wholesale markets now expect the RBNZ will cut the OCR a further c.220bps over the next 18 months, which is notably faster than the RBNZ's own forecast. Regardless of the pace of cuts, the of travel is clear. Trading conditions will remain tough for most firms exposed to the domestic economy for some months to come, but there are already some green shoots including a recent lift in house auction clearance rates and business confidence. History suggests that rate cuts should drive an economic and - more importantly - sharemarket recovery. In comparable cycles for which we have data (2003, 2015, 2019) the NZ50G gained +13% six months following the first rate cut and +27% within one year. Similar returns were delivered by the S&P500 over cycles going back to 1989. While higher starting valuations suggest returns over the next year will be more modest this time, with the rate cut cycle now underway, investors should move to being fully invested.....

Interesting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 15, 2024, 08:02 AMInteresting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

OK - interesting raw data. Just wondering, what conclusions we can draw from them?

Based on your data it looks like the number of posts on a thread could be negatively correlated with stock performance, but I am wondering, whether this might be a lagging indicator? Maybe many posts just follow the negative performance and/or indicate disagreeing views about the analysis of the downtrend?

As well, don't we need to look as well at the quiet losers to get a balanced analysis? If we don't add them to the stats, the whole analysis might be biased.

Anyway - Merry Christmas to all from the according to your stats 4th most prolific poster ...

clearly - this must mean something.

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 15, 2024, 08:02 AMInteresting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

What about Vista

Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 15, 2024, 11:03 AMOK - interesting raw data. Just wondering, what conclusions we can draw from them?

I'm sure we can draw our own conclusions BP..... otherwise choose any or all of the following;

1.) He who shouts loudest and longest is not always right
2.) To avoid posting in an echo chamber.... have your say.... this site needs more diverse opinions
3.) Beware of rampers
4.) People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones (or parties)

......take your choice.

Quote from: Scooter on Dec 15, 2024, 02:22 PMWhat about Vista

Good point Scooter..... here you are

VGL - 28 posts (10 of them mine) - 87% gain.

That's enough of me..... have a happy Christmas all..

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 15, 2024, 04:10 PMGood point Scooter..... here you are

VGL - 28 posts (10 of them mine) - 87% gain.

That's enough of me..... have a happy Christmas all..

Yes great gain and not many followers.  Still got room to keep going too.

Quote from: Left Field on Dec 15, 2024, 08:02 AMInteresting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

Interesting, Thanks for working that out.  Some would say that this years poor performers might be next years winners. Also a lot of us probably have stocks that we own that we have never posted on for what ever reason.

Well what a year its been, hopefully everyone has done ok.  Summers here with Interest rates in NZ on the decline however generally the economy here is not great. Australia and the USA have been fantastic but will it continue is the question.

In NZ sold out of Oceania after being in since it listed.  Should of sold out a long time ago but I'm learning to accept losses and move on.  I'm sure it will come right but decided in the end that I had waited long enough and hopefully the re invested funds will do better.

Early on this year added Tower and Ryman (large position) and recently added My Food Bag and Mercury on MSCI rebalance weakness.  Took a "punt" on KMD Brands. Sold down some of my Heartland shares based on risk but still have a good sized holding and still in the green.

In Australia my two largest positions Aroa and DGL (large position) seemed to have turned a corner and are doing well. 

The US has been incredible with largest positions Apple, Alphabet and Amazon showing large unrealized gains as well as favorable exchange.  Will probably never sell these stocks.  With the current prices and exchange rate cant see myself investing anything new in this market.

My decision to invest off shore directly and also in Discovery funds has been a good one but any spare money lately has and will be going into the NZ market as I reckon 2025 is going to be our year.

Have a great Xmas everyone and I hope 2025 is going to be kind to you all.

Sobering stuff from Treasury.  Gosh even changing the long used OBeagle to OBeagleX to try and fudge when the economy comes back into surplus.   
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/barely-alive-in-2025-treasurys-grim-diagnosis/4TGJERW36BB2HKDIGBZUECTHZM/
Careful stock selection on the NZX will be crucial in 2025 in my opinion.  That said the OCR could be 2.0 - 2.5% by this time next year so that will really help.
Housing which is still extremely expensive relative to incomes to stay flat or increase at very low single digits in line with inflation is how I see that asset class going in 2025 will roll on effects for the languishing RV sector, (SUM the exception), and I am happy to hold a dissenting view to most economists who seem to be expecting mid to high single digit percentage increases.

Thanks for sharing. Always interesting reading other people's ideas and strategies in the investment game
Best of luck...sounds like a good plan to me

Today's NZX SP gains are a nice change given the tough times lately...... maybe the Market is thinking Trump's war is nearly over??

Not likely IMO but we live in hope.